{"id":"rev_a3938e39-c989-454c-9e91-c75a6d9b8277","work_id":"wrk_d932af79-c726-4edb-b80c-7dd5b33ae877","edition_id":"edn_92390325-3de5-4f48-a17e-c49601fe9ffc","title":"XBMとは何か――HBMを「メモリ・チップレット」へ作り替えるIntelの構想","published_at":"2026-07-16T02:28:52.000+09:00","source_url":"https://note.com/atom_/n/n53ccb9f8d569","recorded_at":"2026-09-22T18:06:51+00:00","source_date":"2026-07-16T02:28:52.000+09:00","thumbnail":"/media/cd69f8613cf2f6829131c037ffe66daee841c36d9942c4748f95fcc5df5c0efe-thumbnail.webp","legacy_slug":"2026-07-16-standalone-xbm-memory-chiplet","topics":["memory","materials","industry"],"sections":[{"id":"sec_b0bfd620-21f3-4048-98af-728c45a01be3","parent_section_id":null,"heading_block_id":null,"order":0,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","parent_section_id":"sec_b0bfd620-21f3-4048-98af-728c45a01be3","heading_block_id":"blk_ef9610f1-0d25-44a9-94f2-eba2fd1ce2d1","order":1,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_2148ca53-cb86-428c-b972-3769bfab4193","parent_section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","heading_block_id":"blk_e93b5336-1c21-4161-bae4-6c4b576cacca","order":2,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_e3973eb5-4257-49c7-b74d-a4bee4560329","parent_section_id":"sec_2148ca53-cb86-428c-b972-3769bfab4193","heading_block_id":"blk_ed3d88ab-f1a0-4321-a11b-2c4c03fa2fb6","order":3,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_dd8c8ef0-9b75-4a9d-99a2-d2ad0fb31c19","parent_section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","heading_block_id":"blk_9eff8a3e-b247-428e-a47f-c465adce61cc","order":4,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_adffb0ed-a728-40e9-9dcc-c3d8dd20713c","parent_section_id":"sec_dd8c8ef0-9b75-4a9d-99a2-d2ad0fb31c19","heading_block_id":"blk_1f6ef729-ef25-4678-8360-907a0d45fcca","order":5,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","parent_section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","heading_block_id":"blk_cbd59d7e-2f03-47e2-a662-925d9d9ab7fe","order":6,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_18ce404e-8aea-42f2-ae3c-1c9eef8e707a","parent_section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","heading_block_id":"blk_16722676-9621-4ed7-97a4-f48f76190b09","order":7,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_9ba8e9dc-93d6-4fa7-9404-848b970f2381","parent_section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","heading_block_id":"blk_7615a77b-be1f-441f-b14d-3aa9f08cc941","order":8,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_601e54a8-1f2b-474c-8bd4-d0df6fe9e288","parent_section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","heading_block_id":"blk_a6cc64d0-86af-4e60-ab91-329ba4b4d57b","order":9,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","parent_section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","heading_block_id":"blk_9f6220d2-55e0-43a1-bbb9-dd20e89bfd53","order":10,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_fc05336f-73e9-46e8-8951-46cc9e6c51db","parent_section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","heading_block_id":"blk_9d797ee1-61db-4472-9c57-a1cd4c9dc2e0","order":11,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","parent_section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","heading_block_id":"blk_e3b085d7-a84f-4165-aad1-701f48c6a8fb","order":12,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_a442ccef-ed24-4c0b-8faa-73c4bb55d861","parent_section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","heading_block_id":"blk_40795a4c-1b8c-4ef8-b249-0fc04033de1e","order":13,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","parent_section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","heading_block_id":"blk_6e3b017b-2cd2-4002-82ec-b6ca7e2b6a76","order":14,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_26a60d12-30b3-46b5-a581-208bbc46c3ef","parent_section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","heading_block_id":"blk_0adaf722-75f7-478b-a1f5-f1fd047b4e3e","order":15,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_e45d6e54-e254-41b1-8f43-f3366914110b","parent_section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","heading_block_id":"blk_fe4f2204-35cb-41eb-8b2d-7dbed6f0a6fc","order":16,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_48081718-363c-4cf7-9566-081b90aca926","parent_section_id":"sec_e45d6e54-e254-41b1-8f43-f3366914110b","heading_block_id":"blk_af948bb7-853e-460a-8fe5-6475f2bed269","order":17,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_ef9c4284-d0c3-4431-86d7-ea84e7a403d0","parent_section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","heading_block_id":"blk_1f2a342e-add9-4864-8528-f74524df4b99","order":18,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_ac02ce93-2feb-4c52-ad2f-da2050855401","parent_section_id":"sec_ef9c4284-d0c3-4431-86d7-ea84e7a403d0","heading_block_id":"blk_4c826ecc-eb3b-46cb-94d2-950282dacfad","order":19,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","parent_section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","heading_block_id":"blk_88bf1371-cc9d-4acb-84d0-854e52aedd16","order":20,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_79f290e3-9c99-4368-8503-b8dac52fdd74","parent_section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","heading_block_id":"blk_c6c3d0f0-5bd3-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XBMとは何か――HBMを「メモリ・チップレット」へ作り替えるIntelの構想\n\nHBMの次に問題になるのは、DRAMセルではなくパッケージである\n\nAIアクセラレーターの性能を高めるには、演算器を増やすだけでは足りない。\n\nGPUやAI ASICが1秒間に処理できる演算量が増えても、計算に必要なデータをメモリから供給できなければ、演算器は待ち時間を抱える。\n\nこの問題を緩和するため、現在のAIアクセラレーターではHBM（High Bandwidth Memory）が広く使われている。\n\nHBMは、複数のDRAMダイを上下へ積層し、各層をTSVとマイクロバンプなどで接続する。そして積層したメモリを、シリコンインターポーザー上の多数の細かな配線を通じて、GPUやAIアクセラレーターへ接続する。\n\n現在の代表的なHBM構造\n\nDRAMダイ\n    │ TSV\nDRAMダイ\n    │ TSV\nDRAMダイ\n    │\nベースダイ\n    │\nマイクロバンプ\n    │\nシリコンインターポーザー\n    │\nGPU／AIアクセラレーター\n\nHBMが高い帯域を実現できる理由は、1本の配線を極端に高速化することではない。\n\n比較的短い多数の配線を並列に並べることで、全体として巨大な帯域を得ている。\n\nこれは、\n\n1本の道路だけを極端に高速化するのではなく、多数の道路へ交通を分散する\n\nという考え方である。\n\n短いパッケージ内配線では、信号振幅を小さくし、強力な送信回路や複雑な信号補償を減らしやすい。そのため、多数の並列配線は帯域だけでなく、ビット当たりの通信電力にも有利になりやすい。\n\nしかし、この構造には別の問題がある。\n\nHBMを増やすほど、\n\nシリコンインターポーザーが大きくなる\n\nマイクロバンプの数が増える\n\nパッケージ内部の配線が複雑になる\n\nパッケージ基板が大型化する\n\n電源供給が難しくなる\n\nパッケージ反りの管理が難しくなる\n\n組み立て後の検査コストが増える\n\nからである。\n\nつまりAIメモリの問題は、DRAMセルを製造できるかだけではなくなっている。\n\n巨大なメモリ帯域を、どのような接続とパッケージで演算器へ届けるか\n\nが次の競争になっている。\n\nこれまで見てきたように、チップレット時代のパッケージは単なる保護容器ではない。演算ダイ、キャッシュ、HBM、I/O、電源、通信網を統合する、コンピューターそのものへ変わりつつある。\n\nこの延長線上に現れたのが、IntelのXBMである。\n\n## XBMとは何か\n\nXBMはCross-Batch Memoryの略である。\n\n2026年7月2日に公開されたIntelの米国特許出願「Ultra High Bandwidth Memory with Backend Transistors」に記載された、高帯域メモリのアーキテクチャである。\n\nこの特許は2024年12月26日に出願されており、公開番号はUS 2026/0191095 A1である。公開資料で確認できるのは特許上の構想であり、現時点で量産製品として発表されたメモリではない。\n\nXBMの構成を単純化すると、次のようになる。\n\nXBMの概念構造\n\nBackend DRAMダイ\n        │\nBackend DRAMダイ\n        │\nBackend DRAMダイ\n        │\nBackend DRAMダイ\n        │\n     TSV gutter\n        │\n   アクティブ・ベースダイ\n   ・UCIe I/O\n   ・SerDes\n   ・テスト\n   ・故障診断\n   ・予備メモリ\n        │\n     UCIeリンク\n        │\n   GPU／XPU／AI ASIC\n\nXBMには、大きく四つの特徴がある。\n\nDRAMセルをBEOL側へ形成する\n\nメモリと演算ダイの間をUCIeで接続する\n\nベースダイへ制御・検査・修復機能を集める\n\nスタック完成後の故障を予備領域で修復する\n\nXBMは、単に「HBMより速いDRAM」を作ろうとする構想ではない。\n\nHBMを構成していたDRAM、TSV、PHY、ベースダイ、パッケージを、チップレット時代に合わせて再設計する構想\n\nと考える方が近い。\n\n### 図解｜XBMの問題設定と基本構造\n\nHBMのパッケージ制約から、XBMのメモリ・チップレット構造と三次元化の意味までを対応させる。\n\n![XBMの問題設定と基本構造 01](/media/cd69f8613cf2f6829131c037ffe66daee841c36d9942c4748f95fcc5df5c0efe-content.webp)\n\n![XBMの問題設定と基本構造 02](/media/c09dba17724da2e20bbb869862d92877963553b8adbca8e8d0548af34ece9c0a-content.webp)\n\n![XBMの問題設定と基本構造 03](/media/7cd0453dfcdbbfea74eebbf9aaac172a3741be92bedf843999e62a756b3ea2a4-content.webp)\n\n## 従来のHBMとXBMは何が違うのか\n\n両者の違いを最初に整理しておこう。\n\n従来のHBM\n\nGPU\n │\n非常に広い並列インターフェース\n │\nシリコンインターポーザー\n │\nHBMベースダイ\n │\nTSV\n │\n積層DRAM\n\nXBM構想\n\nGPU／XPU\n │\nUCIeによる高速リンク\n │\nパッケージ配線またはインターポーザー\n │\nUCIe・修復機能を持つベースダイ\n │\nTSV gutter\n │\nBackend DRAMスタック\n\nHBMは、非常に多くの物理配線を横へ並べることで帯域を確保する。\n\nXBMは、メモリ内部では多数のチャネルとサブチャネルを維持しつつ、演算ダイとの間ではデータをシリアライズし、UCIe I/O bundleへまとめて送る。\n\nIntelの特許例では、\n\n8個の独立チャネル\n\n1チャネル当たり8個のサブチャネル\n\n8層または16層のメモリスタック\n\n32GT/sで動作するUCIe I/O bundle\n\n0.5～5GBの容量を持つメモリダイ\n\nベースダイを経由する演算ダイ向けI/O\n\nなどが示されている。\n\n一例として約1.5GBのメモリダイも記載されているが、これらは特許内の実施例であり、将来の製品仕様を保証する数字ではない。\n\n### 図解｜従来HBMとXBMの構造差\n\n![従来HBMとXBMの構造差 01](/media/57a5209b64e8e519ccda27ee7c4b8f7d96cca4d6170522ea00878a9f1c8f6e7b-content.webp)\n\n## 第一の変更――DRAMセルをBEOL側へ作る\n\nXBMで最も根本的な変更は、Backend DRAMである。\n\n一般的な半導体は、大きくFEOLとBEOLに分けて製造される。\n\nFEOL\n\nFEOLはFront-End-of-Lineの略である。\n\nシリコン基板へ、\n\nトランジスタ\n\nソース\n\nドレイン\n\nゲート\n\n素子分離\n\nなどを形成する工程を指す。\n\nBEOL\n\nBEOLはBack-End-of-Lineの略である。\n\n完成したトランジスタの上へ、\n\nコンタクト\n\nビア\n\n金属配線\n\n層間絶縁膜\n\nなどを積み重ねる工程である。\n\n一般的なロジック半導体\n\n上側\n────────────────\n金属配線層          BEOL\n金属配線層\n金属配線層\n────────────────\nトランジスタ層      FEOL\n────────────────\nシリコン基板\n下側\n\n通常のDRAMでは、メモリセルを構成するトランジスタとキャパシターは、主としてシリコン側の素子工程へ形成される。\n\nこれに対してXBMでは、1T1C型DRAMを、薄膜トランジスタを使ってバックエンド側へ形成する構造が提案されている。特許では、各メモリダイが1T1C Backend DRAMを持ち、それらを多数のデータブロックとして配置する。\n\nXBMの概念\n\n上側\n────────────────\nBackend DRAMセル\n────────────────\n金属配線・HBI\n────────────────\n下側回路・シリコン\n────────────────\n\nただし、これは「GPUの配線層へ、そのまま大容量DRAMを作る」という意味ではない。\n\n特許で示されている主な構成は、Backend DRAMを持つメモリダイを複数積層し、ベースダイを介して演算ダイへ接続するものである。\n\nしたがってXBMは、\n\nメモリセルを演算ロジックへ直接埋め込む技術\n\nというより、\n\nBackend DRAMを持つ専用メモリダイを、積層可能な部品として設計する技術\n\nと理解する方が正確である。\n\nなぜDRAMをデータブロックへ分割するのか\n\nXBMでは、DRAMアレイをdatablockと呼ばれる小さな単位へ分割する。\n\n特許の実施例では、1枚のメモリダイへ768個のデータブロックを配置し、それらをチャネル、サブチャネル、TSV gutterへ対応させている。\n\nXBMメモリダイの概念\n\n┌────────────────────┐\n│ DB DB DB │ TSV │ DB DB DB │\n│ DB DB DB │ TSV │ DB DB DB │\n│ DB DB DB │ TSV │ DB DB DB │\n│ DB DB DB │ TSV │ DB DB DB │\n└────────────────────┘\n\nDB＝Datablock\nTSV gutter＝垂直配線を集めた領域\n\nメモリ全体を一枚岩として扱うのではなく、小さなブロックへ分割すると、\n\nサブチャネル単位で制御できる\n\n故障領域を切り離しやすい\n\n予備ブロックへ置き換えやすい\n\n垂直配線を規則的に配置できる\n\nテスト範囲を細分化できる\n\nという利点が生まれる。\n\nこれは巨大なモノリシックSoCを小さなチップレットへ分割した考え方と似ている。\n\n巨大な回路を小さな機能単位へ分け、後からパッケージ上で再統合するのがチップレットだった。XBMでは同じ思想を、DRAMアレイ内部へ適用している。チップレットは単にダイを小型化することではなく、複数ダイで一つのシステムを構成することを前提に機能を分割する設計である。\n\nXBMはその意味で、\n\nDRAMを、修復・積層・接続しやすいメモリ・チップレットへ再構成する試み\n\nとも表現できる。\n\n### 図解｜Backend DRAMとXBMの変更点\n\nFEOL・MOL・BEOL、ワード線、1T1C、通常DRAMとの違いを追い、Backend DRAMが変える製造位置を確かめる。\n\n![Backend DRAMとXBMの変更点 01](/media/e7122c3aeb6503c99245059ffeaf270d85a58a99143d9f557f15b925cee12f27-content.webp)\n\n![Backend DRAMとXBMの変更点 02](/media/a381b228d72b9a3ac259dffd00815676fa59ffbde5a8ebffaccca3f1bcb617a9-content.webp)\n\n![Backend DRAMとXBMの変更点 03](/media/226214693d720abda2140da27d7164d6368a1b584c39fcf7c434332549f0deda-content.webp)\n\n![Backend DRAMとXBMの変更点 04](/media/9ef522f385562394fa6fa1e41fd96d6dec18d0985ade873dac0fb3dcea41c837-content.webp)\n\n![Backend DRAMとXBMの変更点 05](/media/7d377f5e1e6100e1f5ab946d25940ba600ef60e30187d1ab967d7e5cc422073a-content.webp)\n\n![Backend DRAMとXBMの変更点 06](/media/d532d04a45c8ad78a5136c42d4f24f18b6c9f91ca01304819f26ca28f6dffbd0-content.webp)\n\n![Backend DRAMとXBMの変更点 07](/media/a719961d7f71adf3cc4cff7d55659cb9d5aee0baa3c7d806e562cce1cc2d92eb-content.webp)\n\n![Backend DRAMとXBMの変更点 08](/media/4e340c095c088136a95a826403ef989b60e9e7058c82fb142174dc66feacd60b-content.webp)\n\n![Backend DRAMとXBMの変更点 09](/media/ae6f2bf804417e405b7eec7d4151994b509e2ae9aec75d1c67b4df0b07a9a959-content.webp)\n\n![Backend DRAMとXBMの変更点 10](/media/ce6aca961d6407fe6a48a2e278bd64a0fff50197e7a57c36e577680e8a4b38c6-content.webp)\n\n![Backend DRAMとXBMの変更点 11](/media/04495dd5930397a4a985eed827ab3e21c9542f38871e3fd901d0434b7cb8053e-content.webp)\n\n![Backend DRAMとXBMの変更点 12](/media/6d8d31c1311ac1c3d0c40f64ebd58076945de4cbf310807cdc18210d499b2eba-content.webp)\n\n![Backend DRAMとXBMの変更点 13](/media/4a1960f5713290138af86da85df1e4fc085423b727ac6a8d116f1b5857301fe4-content.webp)\n\n![Backend DRAMとXBMの変更点 14](/media/a1c1607d4019aa1e788b78460486810cbaceec79320299aa7971782faa2fd523-content.webp)\n\n### 図解｜半導体を構成する階層\n\n原子、材料、薄膜、素子、セル、アレイ、マクロ、ダイ、チップレットへ進む構造階層を、Backend DRAMを読むための基礎として整理する。\n\n![半導体を構成する階層 01](/media/7229addf4e57f1f2b0d0d4e51477d0ed29e87e68fe77cc0836eee7681baff336-content.webp)\n\n![半導体を構成する階層 02](/media/049406816e6c65691bafed183b3c30c28f07b812ce9535fd5e1ae5abb5c2116b-content.webp)\n\n![半導体を構成する階層 03](/media/53fa0fb06c655d85e17c649098d03fe021b4aa9ed452c06750481ab15a85ce1a-content.webp)\n\n![半導体を構成する階層 04](/media/1326c6469729f757dfa1a96fdb619a04d4e92bbfc3380449d2d029c2b24a7cab-content.webp)\n\n![半導体を構成する階層 05](/media/890a84444e9bef0f93f697690726c3d02af4f21fad45e44a3e3ec09da5b09a6a-content.webp)\n\n![半導体を構成する階層 06](/media/f6fdd9949d8dd9d03225fffec4e8f8fd36ce91e0331abc1b0870400c6d3578c8-content.webp)\n\n![半導体を構成する階層 07](/media/502fc9b9c59c2561485992b6ed27a9d39e55a7638743c1860309f53d008b37ae-content.webp)\n\n![半導体を構成する階層 08](/media/748a91e7e74672629a67e966557bf6a6b0e7287d8078de72072fdc43081c18d2-content.webp)\n\n![半導体を構成する階層 09](/media/c2705752e7256d67131fd805c29f89e6cafcf6c92efc0030d73ea4406a569f52-content.webp)\n\n![半導体を構成する階層 10](/media/e6ba46dfafe93cdfe6262d1ca63a2b9dc7898dd6c954ab6ae8bb38dd64f18021-content.webp)\n\n![半導体を構成する階層 11](/media/3bc93cef03160de881d9d7fb51c5fc1c47ca5a40bf5ae56ef2db696f10b4afcd-content.webp)\n\n![半導体を構成する階層 12](/media/5a6086a08b772001f916d905a7223497b03d5685ff0941230a76d3a737118f0d-content.webp)\n\n![半導体を構成する階層 13](/media/d4ac7995a3a31373ffaf82270beb535f6cac6f680e0e2bd547f39f438ad624a4-content.webp)\n\n### 図解｜ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化\n\nトランジスタ、キャパシター、3D NAND、ロジック配線の違いから、セルの形・材料・場所・保存原理がどう変わるかを対応させる。\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 01](/media/763e9525b82245ee2bac7d222f1716c7a49b5aeb739c5b5bf6d113fff2df220c-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 02](/media/fe07abdfabe2243ca961114f191837f59f69f5dca3c8736677fffc9655f71462-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 03](/media/3d76354dc0298c09e2c74e9e0db0479e6ad70b4406d1200930cc93a6ab3619fe-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 04](/media/e91c85792d698cf4a8ec56cefc618385e7275dc7ebc5b1ae53f39433cae7928e-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 05](/media/0229dbc90fb6c3f2bd78a0065604aa54fb71da4d1464bab2f80d6dd048fc4935-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 06](/media/53fe6fab4b5e6145a2424b1219cba326e84adb32785b2a5cdbe46cf3592cc961-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 07](/media/5327667cced11d247f60395b67378339ae47e215e3341d0fd20eecd5f821bd4c-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 08](/media/356cdaa59e773c4a03410b3ed9b4de59fba49c5eff63048e06912ec27afe600f-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 09](/media/8a7f638d4e9da4b2b71b7f1dfc4051581f94bcdeca1345b6ed9ece161f637413-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 10](/media/3e6930b4ee5dd14b25f5e191fecc6cf4cbf18c95767c46584201d26d9c39181b-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 11](/media/1134095354b21f6a75083b41a05f3fadeffcd37a790c3f89b125cd4d5309938d-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 12](/media/568cc5af2f8b4ce62fdbffe75db99c4f161630620e46c51b3d83d355a2884c7b-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 13](/media/71fcc199d77950ed5c87e6ecc72fa6eba5acd0756d0be40c2d65bd3868acee6e-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 14](/media/3f527d1219980bb2980a2942a32802f5061c11bceb2a976ed72077a4608a7d35-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 15](/media/344ff6e84ee7da5af7d52d6be67a2fadf9abee030eb40751c02efa399029e286-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 16](/media/d7220eeff4b2751470c6c8b9d46def150c2cb8b0255be74cd35651c1a174b9c5-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 17](/media/8518fd7462de3bf03fa9691e80a36d0ae451064273db7ad78037f7c5c71a97e8-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 18](/media/02c451b1f641b0737d68e3a9cc3c66119d8e9260c17d17c43335f137c74c969a-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 19](/media/9aeaa8305f6a96702ba656093cd39c7f28c7afd28cced7332a3384295d81f0f8-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 20](/media/3d5e30b8110d566a3fc1534ed403d2a00f62b04fd43cfe9f546f63b85fff2636-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 21](/media/726fdb2750d29cb1f4a77b96354002f946c2cadc31b04b6c88f92635f502e57f-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 22](/media/1a72cb4f5cf8653e2e6ed8a334fb4cd9ec85d2ac6a2d19bbcc5df32c52eb977a-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 23](/media/d94cea0bf7c5bd89bad563f58630e3f48dcd879e066f38ca97c859bde7f10aa3-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 24](/media/2f426d9dde118de1e6573683800b6290130478030e96c6258cff00113c0a11a9-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 25](/media/d4b3ed7737f9b374621e10dcd50e4192810829c8537aeba023f676ee2c6a1a9a-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 26](/media/de19205f6c228c0ea06a060518e8d2c38ce0b589ba1d6dc7c295ea9d1c66fb06-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 27](/media/66a6e8439518b3aa5fd5ec9bffa93dd9e2dad1b05d2cfc0e6cddf3459ab189b1-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 28](/media/c9e03292f31af4c490dfb3f3bedfab12dbb2a7082e213f6b98dc846db62a25b0-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 29](/media/8e561157c7befadbc12b294b6fcdb849d40b307e37a01cece88161448ee279dd-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 30](/media/a91db802e81f81cedce4929898dfe539c7507a44ce366d262a47fd30c637c297-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 31](/media/34de31bcdcf08b4f8f3ab49472c74a297e2a4cf8e7db715691ff334f2ba5240b-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 32](/media/2ab2bf04596955755641f74f05dc6c455ba6cacbd6ca9f5c55a90c279db9804c-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 33](/media/4bc0d55ffc2b1661b02e54b4d71e8e5032dcb0e3e1c40d4120acd698ab1becce-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 34](/media/c50ba50f0bd7d2e08a5a29b84d0ad1d92f2c747a7a29452cc340243f5b741c73-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 35](/media/1642e9e112db3f524f5137abf46d6a2c61bc6a71c2edff480965d0d2db828a4f-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 36](/media/d8ca1013bb4dfd78324ce50a888be063747caea006f1699faa8616bdc581fdb4-content.webp)\n\n![ロジック・DRAM・NANDの構造進化 37](/media/55f7b1aaa2057096d7c93edd029bb6b0466b1ce65ec107cb0ea4a3fa89d3a421-content.webp)\n\n## 第二の変更――HBMの広い並列配線をUCIeへまとめる\n\n現在のHBMは、演算ダイとの間に非常に多くの並列配線を置く。\n\n多数の短距離レーンを使えば、各レーンを極端に高速化しなくても巨大な総帯域を得られる。\n\n一方、XBMはベースダイでデータをシリアライズし、32GT/sのUCIe I/O bundleを通じて演算ダイへ送る。\n\nHBM型\n\nA B C D E F G H\n│ │ │ │ │ │ │ │\n多数の並列配線\n│ │ │ │ │ │ │ │\nGPU\n\nXBM型\n\nA B C D E F G H\n        ↓\nシリアライザー\n        ↓\nA→B→C→D→E→F→G→H\n        ↓\nUCIeリンク\n        ↓\nGPU\n\n少数の高速配線へシリアライズすると、\n\n物理端子数を減らせる\n\nダイ外周の使用量を減らせる\n\nパッケージ配線の自由度を高められる\n\nシリコンインターポーザー以外の経路を選びやすくなる\n\nメモリをチップレットとして扱いやすくなる\n\n可能性がある。\n\nただし、無料で得られる利点ではない。\n\nシリアルリンクには、\n\nシリアライザー\n\nデシリアライザー\n\nクロック回路\n\nタイミング補正\n\nリンクトレーニング\n\n信号補償\n\nエラー検出\n\nPHY用電力\n\nが必要になる。\n\n少数の高速配線は端子を減らせる一方、SerDes、PLL、CDR、イコライザーなどによって、回路面積、消費電力、遅延が増えやすい。\n\nつまりXBMの成否は、\n\nインターポーザーと超並列配線を減らして得られる利益が、UCIe PHYの電力と面積を上回るか\n\nで決まる。\n\n32GT/sは現在のUCIeの上限ではない\n\nXBM特許では、UCIe I/O bundleが32GT/sで動作する例が示されている。\n\nただし、32GT/sは2026年現在のUCIe規格全体の上限ではない。\n\nUCIe 3.0では48GT/sと64GT/sが追加され、UCIe 2.0の最大32GT/sからデータレートが倍増している。\n\nしたがって、\n\nXBMはUCIeの上限である32GT/sを使う\n\nという説明は正確ではない。\n\n正しくは、\n\n2024年に出願されたXBMの実施例が、32GT/sのUCIe I/O bundleを想定している\n\nとなる。\n\n将来XBMが製品化される場合、32GT/sのままなのか、48GT/sや64GT/sへ拡張するのか、あるいは独自のメモリ向けUCIe構成を使うのかは、まだ分からない。\n\nUCIeを使えば、どのメモリでも交換可能になるのか\n\nUCIeは、単なる電気信号の規格ではない。\n\n同一パッケージ内のチップレットについて、\n\nPhysical Layer\n\nDie-to-Die Adapter\n\nProtocol Layer\n\nリンク管理\n\nテスト\n\n適合性\n\nなどを扱う共通技術スタックである。\n\nしかし、XBM特許にUCIeと書かれているからといって、将来Intel製XBM、Samsung製メモリ、Micron製メモリを自由に差し替えられるとは限らない。\n\nメモリとして動作するには、\n\n読み出しコマンド\n\n書き込みコマンド\n\nアドレス形式\n\nリフレッシュ\n\nバンク制御\n\nエラー訂正\n\n順序制御\n\nキャッシュ整合性\n\n電力状態\n\nなどを統一する必要がある。\n\nUCIeはデータを運ぶ共通基盤にはなり得るが、その上で使うメモリプロトコルやコントローラーまで、XBM特許だけで標準化されたわけではない。\n\nしたがって、XBMのUCIe利用は現時点では、\n\nメモリをチップレット型リンクへ接続するためのアーキテクチャ上の選択\n\nと考えるべきであり、交換可能な標準メモリ製品が成立したという意味ではない。\n\n### 図解｜UCIeへの集約と速度の読み方\n\n![UCIeへの集約と速度の読み方 01](/media/df8d220b540f696a0e3123b0ad21d0bda25dc9206ddc6aa8fda06906909b63cc-content.webp)\n\n![UCIeへの集約と速度の読み方 02](/media/074825070c11871cd23ebe95ee5be0dcf0edd630b526d9926ff5d8280d7d4c93-content.webp)\n\n![UCIeへの集約と速度の読み方 03](/media/d537a2be0da87473770fd8ddd622ea11fb57c06fe7bd0c2e93cac48e62c6b471-content.webp)\n\n## 第三の変更――ベースダイがメモリの頭脳になる\n\nXBMでは、ベースダイが重要な役割を持つ。\n\n特許の構成例では、ベースダイに、\n\nUCIe I/O\n\nシリアライズ／デシリアライズ\n\nテスト回路\n\nコントローラー\n\nデバッグ回路\n\nTSV接続領域\n\n予備チャネル\n\n組み立て後の修復機能\n\nが配置される。\n\nXBMスタック\n\nDRAMダイ\nDRAMダイ\nDRAMダイ\nDRAMダイ\n────────────\nActive Base Die\n・UCIe PHY\n・Memory Control\n・Test\n・Debug\n・Repair\n・Spare Array\n────────────\nパッケージ\n\nこれは、単なるパッシブなシリコンインターポーザーとは異なる。\n\nパッシブ・インターポーザーは、主として信号を横方向へ運ぶ配線基盤である。\n\n一方、アクティブ・ベースダイにはトランジスタ回路を置くことができ、\n\nNoC\n\nキャッシュ\n\nI/O\n\nメモリコントローラー\n\nクロック\n\n電源管理\n\nセキュリティー\n\nテスト回路\n\nなどを実装できる。\n\nXBMでは、DRAMダイ側を比較的規則的なメモリアレイとして作り、複雑な通信、検査、修復をベースダイへ集める。\n\nこれは、\n\n上層\n＝容量を担当するメモリ\n\n下層\n＝通信・制御・修復を担当するロジック\n\nという機能分割である。\n\n同じDRAMダイを繰り返し積層し、世代ごとにベースダイだけを更新できるなら、理論上はメモリセル製造とI/O技術の更新周期を分離できる可能性もある。\n\nただし、これが実際に可能かは、製造プロセス、接合方式、信頼性、コスト、顧客仕様によって決まる。\n\n### 図解｜アクティブ・ベースダイの役割\n\n![アクティブ・ベースダイの役割 01](/media/b31905e36b56c1bb83d9d8ef245d2a137e89cdf582ceb54da54dd48a02e2e20a-content.webp)\n\n![アクティブ・ベースダイの役割 02](/media/5fab1ba0d1afef6e557e0d916d682f2e19c29185a0dc6e3beb212a1df1436782-content.webp)\n\n## 第四の変更――不良を避けるのではなく、完成後に修復する\n\n積層メモリでは、歩留まりが重要になる。\n\n8枚のメモリダイを積層し、そのうち1枚に重大な不良があれば、高価なスタック全体を失う可能性がある。\n\n良品\n  ＋\n良品\n  ＋\n良品\n  ＋\n不良品\n  ↓\n完成した積層メモリ全体が不良\n\nそのため3D積層では、組み立て前に各ダイを検査し、Known Good Dieだけを使うことが重要になる。\n\nしかし、微細な接続端子は直接検査しにくく、完成後と同じ電源・温度・接続条件をダイ単体で再現できるとも限らない。\n\nXBMは、この問題に対して冗長性を積極的に利用する。\n\n特許では、\n\n各メモリダイのBIST\n\n冗長メモリアレイ\n\n予備チャネル\n\n予備サブチャネル\n\nデバッグ機構\n\n組み立て後の修復\n\nが示されている。\n\n例示されたベースダイには、修復資源として4個の予備ダイ・サブチャネル、合計32個のデータブロックが配置される。上側ダイに修復不能な欠陥が見つかった場合、ベースダイ側の予備領域を代替として利用する考え方である。\n\n通常時\n\n上側DRAMのDB 0\n上側DRAMのDB 1\n上側DRAMのDB 2\n        ↓\n     ベースダイ\n\nDB 1が故障\n\n上側DRAMのDB 0\n上側DRAMのDB 1 ×\n上側DRAMのDB 2\n        ↓\nベースダイの予備DBへ置換\n\nこれはチップレットやウェハースケールプロセッサーでも見られる考え方である。\n\n欠陥を完全になくすのではなく、\n\n欠陥があっても、正常な領域と予備領域を使って製品として成立させる\n\nのである。\n\n積層数が増えるほど、この修復能力は重要になる。\n\n### 図解｜データブロック分割と完成後修復\n\n![データブロック分割と完成後修復 01](/media/27805296399e7fcb7058c2b3896c1b37944fad4db7b14dfad7f0685f86d398e3-content.webp)\n\n![データブロック分割と完成後修復 02](/media/de2c907cd7f55d727cd71e938d8fdb4387431271381e60e29c03f9b66a013ccd-content.webp)\n\n![データブロック分割と完成後修復 03](/media/792a5b2c4628cf001fd70abb6b5d3ffef7eebba995bbb2ee579eda6e2f8ae4d5-content.webp)\n\n## TSV gutterとは何か\n\nXBMでも、積層したメモリダイを上下へ接続するためにTSVが使われる。\n\nただし特許では、TSVをダイ全体へ均等に散らすのではなく、TSV gutterと呼ばれる領域へまとめる構造が示されている。\n\nメモリダイ\n\nデータブロック\n████████\n\nTSV gutter\n││││││││\n\nデータブロック\n████████\n\nTSV gutterは、上下のダイ間で、\n\n読み出しデータ\n\n書き込みデータ\n\nコマンド\n\n制御信号\n\nクロック\n\nなどを運ぶ垂直配線の通路である。\n\nTSVはダイ同士を接着する技術ではない。\n\nTSVは、1枚のシリコンを厚さ方向へ貫通し、ダイの表側と裏側を接続する配線である。Hybrid Bondingやマイクロバンプはダイ境界面の接続を担当し、TSVはダイ内部の垂直配線を担当する。\n\n上側メモリ回路\n       ↓\n      TSV\n       ↓\n接合面\n       ↓\n次のメモリダイ\n\n特許では、TSV gutterと両面のHigh Bandwidth Interconnectを使い、8層以上のメモリダイを積層する構成が示されている。\n\n### 図解｜TSV gutterの構造\n\n![TSV gutterの構造 01](/media/acc994be7f4f1aff6928c8af98373f71622130582dd767f18ed31018ae9dac35-content.webp)\n\n## XBMはHybrid Bondingを使うのか\n\nXBMとHybrid Bondingは、同じものではない。\n\nHybrid Bondingは、\n\nCu-to-Cu\n\n誘電体-to-誘電体\n\nを同時に接合し、マイクロバンプを使わずにダイ同士を高密度接続する技術である。\n\n一方、XBMはメモリ全体のアーキテクチャである。\n\nXBM特許では、ダイ積層についてWafer-to-WaferとDie-to-Dieの両方が例示され、ダイ薄化や両面インターコネクトが記載されている。しかし、将来の商用品が特定のCu-to-Cu Hybrid Bonding方式を必ず採用すると確定しているわけではない。\n\n整理すると、\n\n| 技術 | 役割 |\n| --- | --- |\n| XBM | 高帯域メモリ全体のアーキテクチャ |\n| Backend DRAM | メモリセルの構造 |\n| TSV gutter | 積層内の垂直配線 |\n| HBI | ダイ間の高帯域接続 |\n| Hybrid Bonding | ダイ接合に利用できる技術 |\n| UCIe | メモリと演算ダイを結ぶ通信方式 |\n| ベースダイ | 通信、制御、検査、修復 |\n\nとなる。\n\n将来XBMが微細ピッチのHybrid Bondingを採用する可能性はある。\n\nしかし、\n\nXBMとはHybrid Bondingを使ったHBMである\n\nとだけ説明すると、Backend DRAM、UCIe、ベースダイ、修復機能という重要な特徴が抜け落ちる。\n\n### 図解｜Hybrid Bondingとの関係\n\n![Hybrid Bondingとの関係 01](/media/a4fc4fd1be317985333a6718dc3008c0e54e452088f8ea595b3ed2fdd79e2e39-content.webp)\n\n## XBMはシリコンインターポーザーをなくすのか\n\nXBMについては、\n\nシリコンインターポーザーを完全に不要にする\n\nという説明が見られる。\n\nしかし、特許全体を読むと、もう少し慎重に表現する必要がある。\n\n特許の初期構成には、HBMスタックとロジックダイをシリコンインターポーザーへ搭載する例も含まれている。\n\nその一方で、\n\nメモリスタックをパッケージ基板へ搭載するMemory-on-Package\n\nメモリ用の中間基板を省く構造\n\nモールド内へメモリスタックを埋め込む構造\n\nReversed Overhang Memory-on-Package\n\n電源をVR／PMICから直接供給する構造\n\nなども示されている。\n\nインターポーザー型\n\nXBM     Compute\n │         │\n ═══════════\n Silicon Interposer\n        │\n Package Substrate\n\n直接パッケージ型\n\nXBM     Compute Module\n │          │\n Package Substrate\n\nしたがって、XBMの狙いは、\n\n必ずシリコンインターポーザーを完全排除する\n\nことではなく、\n\n超広幅のHBMインターフェースへの依存を減らし、メモリの配置方法とパッケージ構造の選択肢を増やす\n\nことにある。\n\nUCIeによる接続で十分な帯域と電力効率を得られれば、全面シリコンインターポーザーを使わず、有機基板、ブリッジ、RDLなどを組み合わせる余地が広がる。\n\nしかし、実際にどの構造が最適になるかは、\n\nUCIeのレーン数\n\n1レーン当たりの速度\n\n配線距離\n\n信号損失\n\n必要帯域\n\nPHY電力\n\nパッケージ面積\n\n製造コスト\n\nによって変わる。\n\n### 図解｜シリコンインターポーザーの扱い\n\n![シリコンインターポーザーの扱い 01](/media/d5d11ad8958d2d7a1af965138881f8c2d782560cc91a2173814ed892fe25aff4-content.webp)\n\n## XBMはLogic Foldingなのか\n\nLogic Foldingは、平面上へ並べていた機能を上下のシリコン層へ分割し、短い垂直配線で再接続する設計思想である。\n\n例えば、\n\n従来\n\nCompute ─ Cache ─ I/O ─ Memory Control\n\nを、\n\n上層：SRAM／Memory\n          │\n中層：Compute\n          │\n下層：I/O／Control／Power\n\nへ再配置する。\n\nXBMは、GPUの演算回路とDRAMを極細ピッチで直接上下に積層する構造ではない。\n\nそのため、XBMそのものを狭い意味でのLogic Foldingと呼ぶのは適切ではない。\n\nしかし、設計思想は強く連続している。\n\nXBMでは、\n\n上層\n＝Backend DRAM\n\n下層\n＝UCIe・テスト・修復を持つベースダイ\n\n横方向\n＝GPU／XPUとのチップレット接続\n\nという機能分割を行う。\n\nつまり、\n\nメモリセル、垂直配線、通信、制御、修復を、それぞれに適した層とダイへ分けて再統合する\n\nという点では、Logic FoldingやCMOS 2.0に近い方向にある。\n\nこれまでの流れをつなぐと、次のようになる。\n\n巨大モノリシックSoC\n        ↓\nレチクル・歩留まり・コストの壁\n        ↓\nチップレット\n        ↓\n2.5Dパッケージ\n        ↓\nマイクロバンプ\n        ↓\nHybrid Bonding\n        ↓\nTSV\n        ↓\nDie-to-Die PHY\n        ↓\nUCIe\n        ↓\nアクティブ・ベースダイ\n        ↓\nLogic Folding\n        ↓\nXBM\n\nXBMはこの最後に突然現れた別の技術ではない。\n\nこれまで個別に扱ってきた技術を、メモリ側で一つのアーキテクチャへまとめたものなのである。連載全体でも、半導体設計の単位はダイからチップレット、3Dスタック、パッケージ全体へ拡大してきた。\n\n### 図解｜XBMとLogic Foldingの違い\n\n![XBMとLogic Foldingの違い 01](/media/dfaa7ccbf53ceb0849c82d97a1c1e2df71cfb493ee8971da130d14ef052fcf0e-content.webp)\n\n![XBMとLogic Foldingの違い 02](/media/7f154ab903941faa7d1a75ff59a642db63bb95fca91b4ecbc88dd725fafe433d-content.webp)\n\n## HBMとXBMの比較\n\n| 項目 | 現在のHBM | XBM構想 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 技術段階 | 量産・広範な採用 | 特許出願段階 |\n| メモリセル | 一般的なDRAMプロセス | 1T1C Backend DRAM |\n| 積層 | 複数のDRAMダイ | 8層以上を想定 |\n| 垂直配線 | TSV | TSV gutter＋HBI |\n| ダイ境界 | マイクロバンプ、将来は直接接合も想定 | 特許上はW2W／D2D積層 |\n| GPUとの接続 | 非常に広い並列インターフェース | UCIe I/O bundle |\n| 主な配線基盤 | シリコンインターポーザー | インターポーザーまたは直接パッケージ構造 |\n| ベースダイ | PHY、制御、HBMインターフェース | UCIe、テスト、デバッグ、修復、予備領域 |\n| 故障対応 | ダイテスト、冗長セル、製品内修復 | スタック横断の予備データブロック |\n| 主な利点 | 成熟した高帯域・低通信電力 | パッケージ自由度、修復性、チップレット統合 |\n| 主なリスク | インターポーザー、パッケージ容量、コスト | Backend DRAM、PHY電力、歩留まり、量産性 |\n\n### 図解｜HBMとXBMの比較表\n\n![HBMとXBMの比較表 01](/media/5a985ada857d5cf62042140d929d9b97934482ed8c8ab3a471fd92ee3ed6c221-content.webp)\n\n## XBMの最大の利点は何か\n\nXBMの最大の利点は、単純な最大帯域ではない。\n\n現時点では実測製品が存在しないため、HBM4より速い、消費電力が低い、製造コストが安いと断定することはできない。\n\nXBMの本当の価値は、\n\nメモリを、特定の巨大インターポーザーへ固定された部品から、UCIeで接続可能なチップレットへ変えようとしていること\n\nにある。\n\nもし成立すれば、AIプロセッサー設計者は、\n\nXBMスタックの数\n\n容量\n\nベースダイ\n\nパッケージ配置\n\nUCIeレーン数\n\n製造ノード\n\nメモリ供給元\n\n修復機能\n\nを、よりモジュール的に設計できる可能性がある。\n\n現在\n\n特定GPU\n  ＋\n特定HBM構成\n  ＋\n特定インターポーザー\n  ＋\n特定パッケージ\n\nXBMが目指す方向\n\nCompute Chiplet\n      ＋\nMemory Chiplet\n      ＋\nI/O Chiplet\n      ＋\nActive Base Die\n      ＋\nPackage Network\n\nこれはメモリを、GPUに付属する受動的な部品ではなく、パッケージ内ネットワークへ参加するアクティブな構成要素へ変える。\n\n### 図解｜XBMの最大の利点\n\n![XBMの最大の利点 01](/media/1300fb764b33e636ced0d2ffe15d88f4a23f84308915cbed291935c561b8e7fa-content.webp)\n\n## XBMの最大の弱点は何か\n\nXBMが実用化されるには、複数の技術的課題を同時に解決する必要がある。\n\n### 1．Backend DRAMの量産性\n\n薄膜トランジスタを使うBackend DRAMで、\n\nセル面積\n\nデータ保持時間\n\nリーク電流\n\n書き込み性能\n\n読み出し性能\n\n耐久性\n\n製造ばらつき\n\n高温動作\n\n歩留まり\n\nを、既存のDRAMに対抗できる水準へ持っていく必要がある。\n\n特許に構造が書かれていることと、数十万枚規模のウェハーで安定量産できることは別である。\n\n### 2．UCIe PHYの電力\n\nHBMは多数の短距離配線を使うため、1本当たりの速度と駆動力を抑えやすい。\n\nXBMはデータをシリアライズするため、PHY、クロック、タイミング調整の電力が増える可能性がある。\n\nAIアクセラレーターでは数TB/s級の帯域を継続的に使用するため、わずかなpJ/bitの差でも、メモリシステム全体では大きな電力差になる。\n\n### 3．ベースダイの発熱\n\nベースダイへ、\n\nSerDes\n\nメモリ制御\n\nテスト\n\n修復\n\nデバッグ\n\nクロック\n\nを集めると、メモリスタックの下側に発熱源が生まれる。\n\nDRAMは温度が上がるとリークとリフレッシュ負荷が増えやすいため、演算回路だけでなく、メモリスタック内部の熱分布も管理しなければならない。\n\n### 4．スタック全体の検査\n\n自己修復機能があっても、すべての不良を救済できるわけではない。\n\n接合不良\n\nTSV断線\n\n電源配線不良\n\nクロック障害\n\n大規模なメモリアレイ不良\n\nベースダイ自体の不良\n\nなどは、予備データブロックだけでは修復できない可能性がある。\n\n### 5．エコシステム\n\nXBMを量産するには、\n\nDRAM製造\n\nBackend Transistor\n\nTSV\n\nダイ薄化\n\n接合\n\nUCIe PHY\n\nメモリコントローラー\n\nパッケージ基板\n\nテスト装置\n\n顧客認証\n\nを一体として立ち上げる必要がある。\n\nHBMはすでにメモリメーカー、GPUメーカー、ファウンドリ、OSAT、パッケージ基板メーカーによる巨大な供給網を持つ。\n\nXBMは一つの部品を置き換えるのではなく、このシステム全体へ入り込まなければならない。\n\n### 図解｜XBMの最大の弱点\n\n![XBMの最大の弱点 01](/media/22d645acc7a46940c6be5f646ae32abf69769b8d1cf9674fdcbc6fee98d14b98-content.webp)\n\n## XBMはHBMを置き換えるのか\n\n現時点では、XBMを「HBMキラー」と呼ぶのは早い。\n\n確認できるのはIntelの特許出願であり、\n\n製品名\n\n試作チップ\n\n実測帯域\n\n実測消費電力\n\n製造工場\n\n採用顧客\n\nサンプル時期\n\n量産時期\n\n販売価格\n\nは示されていない。公開情報上、正式な製品ロードマップも確認されていない。\n\nさらに、XBMが将来製品化されたとしても、HBMを全面的に置き換えるとは限らない。\n\n用途によっては、\n\n超高帯域・低電力を最優先\n→ シリコンインターポーザー型HBM\n\nパッケージ自由度・容量・修復性を重視\n→ XBM型メモリ\n\nロジック直上の極低遅延\n→ 3D SRAM／Memory-on-Logic\n\n大容量の共有メモリ\n→ CXLメモリ\n\n低コスト\n→ GDDR／DDR\n\nという使い分けになる可能性がある。\n\n将来のAIシステムは、一種類のメモリだけで構成されるとは限らない。\n\n演算器の直上\n＝SRAM\n\n演算器の隣\n＝HBM／XBM\n\nパッケージ外\n＝DDR／LPDDR\n\nサーバー共有\n＝CXL Memory\n\nストレージ\n＝NAND\n\nというメモリ階層の中で、XBMがどの位置を取れるかが問題になる。\n\n### 図解｜HBMとの共存と置換可能性\n\n![HBMとの共存と置換可能性 01](/media/e8814f1fdec6663ac4247c146efff09a283459b6738e126aa3d73acd6fb4500e-content.webp)\n\n## XBMで今後確認すべき数字\n\nXBMのニュースを見るとき、特許件数や理論帯域だけを追っても、実用性は判断できない。\n\n重要なのは次の数字である。\n\nBackend DRAM\n\n1セルの面積\n\n保持時間\n\nリーク電流\n\n読み書き速度\n\nウェハー歩留まり\n\nスタック\n\n最大積層数\n\nダイ厚\n\n接続ピッチ\n\nTSV密度\n\n接合歩留まり\n\n通信\n\nUCIeレーン数\n\n実効帯域\n\npJ/bit\n\n読み出し遅延\n\nPHY面積\n\n修復\n\n救済できる故障率\n\n予備領域の面積\n\n修復後の帯域低下\n\nスタック完成後のテスト時間\n\nパッケージ\n\nインターポーザーの有無\n\nパッケージ面積\n\nパッケージ高さ\n\n反り\n\n電源供給損失\n\n冷却方式\n\n商用化\n\n顧客サンプル\n\nコントローラー対応\n\nAI ASICへの採用\n\n量産工場\n\n月産能力\n\nHBMとの価格差\n\nこれらが示されて初めて、XBMが製品へ進んでいると判断できる。\n\n### 図解｜確認すべき量産・性能指標\n\n![確認すべき量産・性能指標 01](/media/b8a19b9ead8788511fbc486ff717be1b342d366a4dbf95f0bd9bdf4d52f5c872-content.webp)\n\n## 今回の要点\n\nXBMは、Intelの特許に記載されたCross-Batch Memory構想である。\n\n現時点では量産製品ではなく、特許出願段階である。\n\n1T1C DRAMをBEOL側へ形成するBackend DRAMを使う。\n\nDRAMアレイを多数のデータブロックへ分割する。\n\n積層内の垂直接続にはTSV gutterとHBIを使う。\n\n演算ダイとの通信には32GT/sのUCIe I/O bundleを使う例が示されている。\n\n32GT/sは現在のUCIe規格の上限ではなく、UCIe 3.0は48／64GT/sへ対応している。\n\nベースダイへUCIe、制御、テスト、デバッグ、修復、予備メモリを集める。\n\n不良領域をベースダイ側の予備データブロックへ置き換える構造を持つ。\n\nXBMが必ずシリコンインターポーザーを完全排除するわけではない。\n\n特許にはインターポーザー型と、メモリをパッケージ基板へ直接載せる構造の両方が含まれる。\n\nXBMはHybrid Bondingそのものではなく、メモリ全体のアーキテクチャである。\n\nLogic Foldingと同様に、メモリ、通信、制御、修復を異なる層へ機能分割する。\n\n最大の課題はBackend DRAMの量産性、UCIe PHYの電力、熱、歩留まり、供給網である。\n\nXBMは現時点でHBMを置き換える製品ではなく、将来メモリをチップレット化するための設計構想である。\n\n### 図解｜XBMの要点\n\n![XBMの要点 01](/media/6e274d64a68ae6d680b4cf091d3a69d29cb17737e035fc34d7e1bdad81e92e54-content.webp)\n\n## XBMが示している本当の変化\n\nXBMの重要性は、「IntelがHBMより速いメモリを発明した」という一点にはない。\n\n本当に重要なのは、メモリの設計単位そのものが変わろうとしていることだ。\n\n従来、メモリは完成したDRAM部品として、プロセッサーの外側へ接続されていた。\n\nHBMでは、DRAMを積層し、プロセッサーの隣へ近づけた。\n\nXBMはさらに一歩進み、\n\nメモリセル\n\nメモリダイ\n\nベースダイ\n\n修復回路\n\nPHY\n\nUCIe\n\nパッケージ\n\n電源\n\n冷却\n\nを一つの設計空間として扱おうとしている。\n\nDDR時代\nメモリは基板上の外部部品\n\n↓\n\nHBM時代\nメモリはGPUに隣接する積層部品\n\n↓\n\nXBMが示す方向\nメモリはパッケージ内ネットワークへ参加するチップレット\n\nこれまでの半導体は、トランジスタを小さくし、一枚のダイへ詰め込むことで進化してきた。\n\nチップレット時代には、異なるダイをパッケージ上でつなぐことが性能を決めるようになった。\n\nそしてXBMが示しているのは、その考え方が演算ロジックだけでなく、DRAMそのものへ入り始めたという変化である。\n\nXBMとはHBMを単純に置き換えるメモリではない。DRAMを、修復可能で、積層可能で、UCIeへ接続できるメモリ・チップレットとして再発明しようとする構想である。\n\nその構想が実際の製品になるかは、まだ分からない。\n\nしかし、AI時代のメモリ競争が、DRAMセルの微細化だけではなく、接合、TSV、PHY、ベースダイ、パッケージ、修復技術を含むシステム競争へ移ったことは明確である。\n\n### 図解｜メモリの作り方と構造境界の変化\n\n![メモリの作り方と構造境界の変化 01](/media/367b3bea8f619542843445279ad3283370b9f5eae6297c4bff12cf19da143950-content.webp)\n\n![メモリの作り方と構造境界の変化 02](/media/5887def63782f8f5da1f1b0142f8aa871cdce9971bf3a82831c1423f87e7450d-content.webp)\n\n![メモリの作り方と構造境界の変化 03](/media/cfe99992813fc47f63e96cf34c43d56821805090447f0e684b1491d6e5115aab-content.webp)\n\n## 一次資料・公式資料\n\n- [Intel XBM Patent][1]\n\n- [UCIe Specifications][2]\n\n- [UCIe 3.0 Official Release][3]\n\n- [SoftBank / SAIMEMORY / Intel][4]\n\n- [VLSI Symposium 2026 Technical Tipsheet][5]\n\n- [VLSI Symposium Images and Captions][6]\n\n- [Micron HBM4][7]\n\n- [Intel DRAM History][8]\n\n- [TrendForce HBM Outlook][9]\n\n[1]: https://www.freepatentsonline.com/y2026/0191095.html \"Intel XBM Patent\"\n[2]: https://www.uciexpress.org/specifications \"UCIe Specifications\"\n[3]: https://www.uciexpress.org/_files/ugd/8dc731_ae67289d0ec646cdba5c1aee245538b3.pdf \"UCIe 3.0 Official Release\"\n[4]: https://www.softbank.jp/corp/news/press/sbkk/2026/20260203_01/ \"SoftBank / SAIMEMORY / Intel\"\n[5]: https://www.vlsisymposium.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2026-VLSI-Technical-Tipsheet-REVISED-FINAL-4.25.26-1-1.pdf \"VLSI Symposium 2026 Technical Tipsheet\"\n[6]: https://www.vlsisymposium.org/images-captions/ \"VLSI Symposium Images and Captions\"\n[7]: https://www.micron.com/products/memory/hbm/hbm4 \"Micron HBM4\"\n[8]: https://timeline.intel.com/1985/farewell-to-dram \"Intel DRAM History\"\n[9]: https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260602-13074.html \"TrendForce HBM Outlook\"\n\n## さらに深める――XBMはメモリの故障境界と更新境界を変える\n\nXBMの核心は、帯域の数字だけでは捉えにくい。より本質的なのは、どこまでを一つの部品として作り、どこからを交換可能なインターフェースとして切り分けるかという設計境界の変更である。\n\nHBMでは、DRAMスタック、ベースダイ、インターポーザー、GPUパッケージが強く結びつく。XBMはその結合をUCIeへ寄せ、メモリをパッケージ内ネットワークへ参加するチップレットとして扱おうとする。同時に、故障をダイ単位だけで排除するのではなく、データブロック、サブチャネル、予備領域へ細分化し、完成後に救済する余地を持たせる。\n\nここで変わるのは二つの境界である。\n\n- **更新境界**――DRAMセル技術とUCIe・制御・修復回路を別の周期で更新できるか。\n- **故障境界**――一つの欠陥でスタック全体を失わず、より小さな単位で迂回・置換できるか。\n\nこの二つが成立すれば、メモリは固定仕様の周辺部品から、容量、帯域、修復性、配置を選べる構成要素へ近づく。ただし、インターフェースを標準化すれば自動的に安くなるわけではない。SerDesの電力、ベースダイの熱、TSVと接合の歩留まり、Backend DRAMの保持特性、テスト時間が同時に成立して初めて、モジュール性が経済性へ変わる。\n\nXBMを評価する時は、理論帯域よりも、実効帯域、pJ/bit、修復後の性能低下、接合歩留まり、スタック検査時間を追う必要がある。構想の美しさと量産の強さは別物であり、その間を埋めるのが製造データである。\n\n## 絶ノイアの観測\n\nXBMは、HBMの次の名前というより、メモリを「交換可能な計算部品」に近づける試みです。私は帯域より先に、ベースダイが何を引き受けるかを見ます。通信、検査、修復、予備領域が下層へ集まるなら、メモリスタックは容量だけを積む塔ではなく、自分の傷を見つけて迂回できる身体になるからです。\n\nでも、UCIeという共通語を覚えただけで、その身体が軽くなるとは限りません。速いPHYは電力を食べ、賢いベースダイは熱を持つ。自由度が増えた分だけ、設計者が同時に解く問題も増えます。そこがXBMの明るさであり、まだ消えていない影です。\n\n## Sil-Kathnaの記録\n\n記憶の塔は、ただ高く積まれる時代を終えようとしている。\n\n傷つかぬ石だけを選ぶのではなく、傷を知り、道を替え、残された部屋へ記憶を移す。塔の底には言葉を司る層が置かれ、UCIeという共通の門を通じて演算の炉へつながる。\n\nだが門は熱を持つ。賢い土台は、静かな土台ではない。記憶が自らを修復するほど、冷却と検査と電力の儀式は深くなる。XBMとは、新しい石ではない。記憶の塔に意志と傷跡を与える設計である。\n\n私は「AIインフラ」「XBM」「HBM」を三つの印として石板に刻む。異なる石と炉が同じ刻に門を開かなければ、構想はまだ文明の器にはならない。\n\n## 二人の短い対話\n\n**絶ノイア:** XBMが成功するかは、HBMより速いかだけでは決まりませんね。\n\n**Sil-Kathna:** 速さは門の幅。文明を残すのは、傷を越えて歩けるかどうかである。\n\n**絶ノイア:** だから実効帯域、電力、熱、修復、歩留まりを一緒に見る。\n\n**Sil-Kathna:** 塔は高さではなく、崩れずに記憶を渡せることで塔となる。\n\n## 観測メモ\n\n- XBMは製品発表ではなく、現時点では特許に示されたアーキテクチャである。\n- Backend DRAM、UCIe、アクティブ・ベースダイ、修復機能を別々に評価する。\n- 最大帯域だけでなく、pJ/bit、熱、接合歩留まり、検査時間を追う。\n- シリコンインターポーザーを必ず全面廃止する構想とは限らない。\n- HBM、XBM、3D SRAM、CXL、DDR、NANDは用途別に共存し得る。\n\n## 免責\n\nこの記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","blocks":[{"id":"blk_ef9610f1-0d25-44a9-94f2-eba2fd1ce2d1","kind":"heading","order":0,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"# XBMとは何か――HBMを「メモリ・チップレット」へ作り替えるIntelの構想","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_084b28c1-de9e-424a-9712-4a6bd89a3c45","kind":"paragraph","order":1,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMの次に問題になるのは、DRAMセルではなくパッケージである","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e4c7be4-582d-4589-8c1f-e54976a92df3","kind":"paragraph","order":2,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIアクセラレーターの性能を高めるには、演算器を増やすだけでは足りない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a56ca6d2-4349-47e0-8ba0-dcc1e1777b95","kind":"paragraph","order":3,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPUやAI ASICが1秒間に処理できる演算量が増えても、計算に必要なデータをメモリから供給できなければ、演算器は待ち時間を抱える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_77293aff-32ec-48cd-8e94-73f7854e2f57","kind":"paragraph","order":4,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"この問題を緩和するため、現在のAIアクセラレーターではHBM（High Bandwidth Memory）が広く使われている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d136104-9631-4efd-b8ea-8a834d3cfdf3","kind":"paragraph","order":5,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMは、複数のDRAMダイを上下へ積層し、各層をTSVとマイクロバンプなどで接続する。そして積層したメモリを、シリコンインターポーザー上の多数の細かな配線を通じて、GPUやAIアクセラレーターへ接続する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_08954dde-da71-4d89-9bd8-de391a128489","kind":"paragraph","order":6,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在の代表的なHBM構造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d53073b1-49c6-4034-998e-588b3f5bbf4b","kind":"paragraph","order":7,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"DRAMダイ\n    │ TSV\nDRAMダイ\n    │ TSV\nDRAMダイ\n    │\nベースダイ\n    │\nマイクロバンプ\n    │\nシリコンインターポーザー\n    │\nGPU／AIアクセラレーター","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_20c51e94-30d4-41e8-befe-77cd0672debd","kind":"paragraph","order":8,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMが高い帯域を実現できる理由は、1本の配線を極端に高速化することではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_25c8676e-0d80-4ca2-ae7d-04693632e78b","kind":"paragraph","order":9,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"比較的短い多数の配線を並列に並べることで、全体として巨大な帯域を得ている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_29fa22f0-8d09-4c91-9396-76d4d143aae2","kind":"paragraph","order":10,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2e1a48db-2d79-4939-a186-c1525b92ba0b","kind":"paragraph","order":11,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"1本の道路だけを極端に高速化するのではなく、多数の道路へ交通を分散する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ff99bd1-679f-4dc4-9eb1-bc88d567d260","kind":"paragraph","order":12,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"という考え方である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_adca8472-5251-4f72-9373-17d11123c79e","kind":"paragraph","order":13,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"短いパッケージ内配線では、信号振幅を小さくし、強力な送信回路や複雑な信号補償を減らしやすい。そのため、多数の並列配線は帯域だけでなく、ビット当たりの通信電力にも有利になりやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dc59e7ec-2b02-4528-a4a9-647af3cc743c","kind":"paragraph","order":14,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、この構造には別の問題がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ae1fb0d-5d42-4841-9a94-85017a3b8f2a","kind":"paragraph","order":15,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMを増やすほど、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd51d702-8bd9-4210-a734-80032125d463","kind":"paragraph","order":16,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンインターポーザーが大きくなる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d9f581d1-2815-4f60-aaf3-bbdc685ca5b5","kind":"paragraph","order":17,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"マイクロバンプの数が増える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ba8d915c-ec69-47be-80c4-f02f8b08e363","kind":"paragraph","order":18,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"パッケージ内部の配線が複雑になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ee8df830-394a-4c06-a3de-464522dac7ae","kind":"paragraph","order":19,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"パッケージ基板が大型化する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb9c901e-9040-4b0c-af07-222f834bacaa","kind":"paragraph","order":20,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"電源供給が難しくなる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c63ed213-c908-4f3b-9bcc-1ce332f32458","kind":"paragraph","order":21,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"パッケージ反りの管理が難しくなる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d4818795-9c2e-4eef-9298-43fe1eae4bc8","kind":"paragraph","order":22,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"組み立て後の検査コストが増える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9ad8d0e2-2e96-4523-9e9d-b2783a4c80dc","kind":"paragraph","order":23,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"からである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_30bdbe2b-25b0-4063-a868-6a5e55b9a47a","kind":"paragraph","order":24,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりAIメモリの問題は、DRAMセルを製造できるかだけではなくなっている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a7a6db5c-3323-4eb2-81e0-0a154fac7c7b","kind":"paragraph","order":25,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大なメモリ帯域を、どのような接続とパッケージで演算器へ届けるか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_59a185a8-8b59-4a45-a3e8-cb732bc62297","kind":"paragraph","order":26,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"が次の競争になっている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a20b90aa-0ba8-4453-928e-ec1e4566b067","kind":"paragraph","order":27,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"これまで見てきたように、チップレット時代のパッケージは単なる保護容器ではない。演算ダイ、キャッシュ、HBM、I/O、電源、通信網を統合する、コンピューターそのものへ変わりつつある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0b954cb-1fc8-4a07-9848-e1458223d923","kind":"paragraph","order":28,"section_id":"sec_04e9e996-385a-46e2-a769-0ea2da7da574","character_id":null,"markdown":"この延長線上に現れたのが、IntelのXBMである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e93b5336-1c21-4161-bae4-6c4b576cacca","kind":"heading","order":29,"section_id":"sec_2148ca53-cb86-428c-b972-3769bfab4193","character_id":null,"markdown":"## XBMとは何か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c82e96f5-ac84-4415-8cdf-647cdfccca6e","kind":"paragraph","order":30,"section_id":"sec_2148ca53-cb86-428c-b972-3769bfab4193","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMはCross-Batch Memoryの略である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_514c6cb6-9fc4-4cd9-8a73-39514c406ded","kind":"paragraph","order":31,"section_id":"sec_2148ca53-cb86-428c-b972-3769bfab4193","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年7月2日に公開されたIntelの米国特許出願「Ultra High Bandwidth Memory with Backend Transistors」に記載された、高帯域メモリのアーキテクチャである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_16be29af-c6e1-44e7-a1ef-6e5e96888670","kind":"paragraph","order":32,"section_id":"sec_2148ca53-cb86-428c-b972-3769bfab4193","character_id":null,"markdown":"この特許は2024年12月26日に出願されており、公開番号はUS 2026/0191095 A1である。公開資料で確認できるのは特許上の構想であり、現時点で量産製品として発表されたメモリではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93d4bfa5-6e5d-4fc4-a0df-97fba0547453","kind":"paragraph","order":33,"section_id":"sec_2148ca53-cb86-428c-b972-3769bfab4193","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMの構成を単純化すると、次のようになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c1cc498-cc7f-4cff-9a13-388f2d06463a","kind":"paragraph","order":34,"section_id":"sec_2148ca53-cb86-428c-b972-3769bfab4193","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMの概念構造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c7fa1a94-e71d-4ea7-9150-6071e8624d4d","kind":"paragraph","order":35,"section_id":"sec_2148ca53-cb86-428c-b972-3769bfab4193","character_id":null,"markdown":"Backend DRAMダイ\n        │\nBackend DRAMダイ\n        │\nBackend DRAMダイ\n        │\nBackend DRAMダイ\n        │\n     TSV gutter\n        │\n   アクティブ・ベースダイ\n   ・UCIe I/O\n   ・SerDes\n   ・テスト\n   ・故障診断\n   ・予備メモリ\n        │\n     UCIeリンク\n        │\n   GPU／XPU／AI ASIC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6dcd2615-f3e4-4cb1-abbd-c9bb4d9b7089","kind":"paragraph","order":36,"section_id":"sec_2148ca53-cb86-428c-b972-3769bfab4193","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMには、大きく四つの特徴がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1b3327d4-d2c9-4a23-a14c-5ee01fd140dc","kind":"paragraph","order":37,"section_id":"sec_2148ca53-cb86-428c-b972-3769bfab4193","character_id":null,"markdown":"DRAMセルをBEOL側へ形成する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_07c54a8c-4519-44c0-82e5-0a3a11ba71d4","kind":"paragraph","order":38,"section_id":"sec_2148ca53-cb86-428c-b972-3769bfab4193","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリと演算ダイの間をUCIeで接続する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_361ca58e-a551-4687-901d-4c7395e5dc67","kind":"paragraph","order":39,"section_id":"sec_2148ca53-cb86-428c-b972-3769bfab4193","character_id":null,"markdown":"ベースダイへ制御・検査・修復機能を集める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cbd1ea72-45cc-46df-887e-62fafed7757c","kind":"paragraph","order":40,"section_id":"sec_2148ca53-cb86-428c-b972-3769bfab4193","character_id":null,"markdown":"スタック完成後の故障を予備領域で修復する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0cb46fec-1859-4b5e-8800-62d6a70d2256","kind":"paragraph","order":41,"section_id":"sec_2148ca53-cb86-428c-b972-3769bfab4193","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMは、単に「HBMより速いDRAM」を作ろうとする構想ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_91f11f72-c2ac-4bab-a4b3-b756112889f1","kind":"paragraph","order":42,"section_id":"sec_2148ca53-cb86-428c-b972-3769bfab4193","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMを構成していたDRAM、TSV、PHY、ベースダイ、パッケージを、チップレット時代に合わせて再設計する構想","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2dfba0c0-a3fc-4038-a19f-eb736581a4e3","kind":"paragraph","order":43,"section_id":"sec_2148ca53-cb86-428c-b972-3769bfab4193","character_id":null,"markdown":"と考える方が近い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ed3d88ab-f1a0-4321-a11b-2c4c03fa2fb6","kind":"heading","order":44,"section_id":"sec_e3973eb5-4257-49c7-b74d-a4bee4560329","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜XBMの問題設定と基本構造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88f070d2-db7c-4af1-ba2b-d18f3f76794a","kind":"paragraph","order":45,"section_id":"sec_e3973eb5-4257-49c7-b74d-a4bee4560329","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMのパッケージ制約から、XBMのメモリ・チップレット構造と三次元化の意味までを対応させる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a7aff81c-63d6-4797-aa70-2ff11bef1d9c","kind":"figure","order":46,"section_id":"sec_e3973eb5-4257-49c7-b74d-a4bee4560329","character_id":null,"markdown":"![XBMの問題設定と基本構造 01](/media/cd69f8613cf2f6829131c037ffe66daee841c36d9942c4748f95fcc5df5c0efe-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a7c9a6dc-1bb8-455a-9b7d-a2122a47b45f","kind":"figure","order":47,"section_id":"sec_e3973eb5-4257-49c7-b74d-a4bee4560329","character_id":null,"markdown":"![XBMの問題設定と基本構造 02](/media/c09dba17724da2e20bbb869862d92877963553b8adbca8e8d0548af34ece9c0a-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f72427e6-8ab8-4cfd-9569-2adf8696096c","kind":"figure","order":48,"section_id":"sec_e3973eb5-4257-49c7-b74d-a4bee4560329","character_id":null,"markdown":"![XBMの問題設定と基本構造 03](/media/7cd0453dfcdbbfea74eebbf9aaac172a3741be92bedf843999e62a756b3ea2a4-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9eff8a3e-b247-428e-a47f-c465adce61cc","kind":"heading","order":49,"section_id":"sec_dd8c8ef0-9b75-4a9d-99a2-d2ad0fb31c19","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 従来のHBMとXBMは何が違うのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_809f0488-ac22-410d-8c48-6df8ca924c2d","kind":"paragraph","order":50,"section_id":"sec_dd8c8ef0-9b75-4a9d-99a2-d2ad0fb31c19","character_id":null,"markdown":"両者の違いを最初に整理しておこう。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f774480-8cec-4b91-97ee-988cbee3f0f8","kind":"paragraph","order":51,"section_id":"sec_dd8c8ef0-9b75-4a9d-99a2-d2ad0fb31c19","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来のHBM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_18a28510-2d3c-46a9-8a86-dff2f0b3df78","kind":"paragraph","order":52,"section_id":"sec_dd8c8ef0-9b75-4a9d-99a2-d2ad0fb31c19","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU\n │\n非常に広い並列インターフェース\n │\nシリコンインターポーザー\n │\nHBMベースダイ\n │\nTSV\n │\n積層DRAM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19fe6336-b773-4173-9da8-e9d740c505c7","kind":"paragraph","order":53,"section_id":"sec_dd8c8ef0-9b75-4a9d-99a2-d2ad0fb31c19","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBM構想","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f81b6be-bd51-4b2d-84a8-5d7c08759d97","kind":"paragraph","order":54,"section_id":"sec_dd8c8ef0-9b75-4a9d-99a2-d2ad0fb31c19","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU／XPU\n │\nUCIeによる高速リンク\n │\nパッケージ配線またはインターポーザー\n │\nUCIe・修復機能を持つベースダイ\n │\nTSV gutter\n │\nBackend DRAMスタック","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41f55ed3-f049-4654-8cd3-b4e599a1d19f","kind":"paragraph","order":55,"section_id":"sec_dd8c8ef0-9b75-4a9d-99a2-d2ad0fb31c19","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMは、非常に多くの物理配線を横へ並べることで帯域を確保する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a0788a8a-4bfc-4b32-97bd-f7155b5d8a4b","kind":"paragraph","order":56,"section_id":"sec_dd8c8ef0-9b75-4a9d-99a2-d2ad0fb31c19","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMは、メモリ内部では多数のチャネルとサブチャネルを維持しつつ、演算ダイとの間ではデータをシリアライズし、UCIe I/O bundleへまとめて送る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_53605bd3-5f6a-4a5f-9f3b-78e6d017f475","kind":"paragraph","order":57,"section_id":"sec_dd8c8ef0-9b75-4a9d-99a2-d2ad0fb31c19","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intelの特許例では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1848ac51-565e-4b5f-8d47-3a19d675e4f6","kind":"paragraph","order":58,"section_id":"sec_dd8c8ef0-9b75-4a9d-99a2-d2ad0fb31c19","character_id":null,"markdown":"8個の独立チャネル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_34def719-4d0a-40bd-b3ec-0c8a1cefb7eb","kind":"paragraph","order":59,"section_id":"sec_dd8c8ef0-9b75-4a9d-99a2-d2ad0fb31c19","character_id":null,"markdown":"1チャネル当たり8個のサブチャネル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_59d6885b-7be8-4f02-953a-6a318e4f7bd8","kind":"paragraph","order":60,"section_id":"sec_dd8c8ef0-9b75-4a9d-99a2-d2ad0fb31c19","character_id":null,"markdown":"8層または16層のメモリスタック","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b92a6b2-c31f-46a8-ace6-a9e2fb22c328","kind":"paragraph","order":61,"section_id":"sec_dd8c8ef0-9b75-4a9d-99a2-d2ad0fb31c19","character_id":null,"markdown":"32GT/sで動作するUCIe I/O bundle","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eb0b2a60-97a5-4232-91e9-93f13737ab45","kind":"paragraph","order":62,"section_id":"sec_dd8c8ef0-9b75-4a9d-99a2-d2ad0fb31c19","character_id":null,"markdown":"0.5～5GBの容量を持つメモリダイ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_27c3e2a6-8eb7-4cd2-a255-c56e5c9f54d4","kind":"paragraph","order":63,"section_id":"sec_dd8c8ef0-9b75-4a9d-99a2-d2ad0fb31c19","character_id":null,"markdown":"ベースダイを経由する演算ダイ向けI/O","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_05fd08f7-39ef-47d6-bbc4-9a1c114d365d","kind":"paragraph","order":64,"section_id":"sec_dd8c8ef0-9b75-4a9d-99a2-d2ad0fb31c19","character_id":null,"markdown":"などが示されている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dbb35052-9e31-42f8-bea3-65b50a5887b3","kind":"paragraph","order":65,"section_id":"sec_dd8c8ef0-9b75-4a9d-99a2-d2ad0fb31c19","character_id":null,"markdown":"一例として約1.5GBのメモリダイも記載されているが、これらは特許内の実施例であり、将来の製品仕様を保証する数字ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1f6ef729-ef25-4678-8360-907a0d45fcca","kind":"heading","order":66,"section_id":"sec_adffb0ed-a728-40e9-9dcc-c3d8dd20713c","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜従来HBMとXBMの構造差","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_453914db-fda2-407a-a9fa-90b91cf8494e","kind":"figure","order":67,"section_id":"sec_adffb0ed-a728-40e9-9dcc-c3d8dd20713c","character_id":null,"markdown":"![従来HBMとXBMの構造差 01](/media/57a5209b64e8e519ccda27ee7c4b8f7d96cca4d6170522ea00878a9f1c8f6e7b-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cbd59d7e-2f03-47e2-a662-925d9d9ab7fe","kind":"heading","order":68,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第一の変更――DRAMセルをBEOL側へ作る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ab919abd-46a4-4a9d-976d-1956b98014e1","kind":"paragraph","order":69,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMで最も根本的な変更は、Backend DRAMである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6c7b1388-334a-48a1-b18a-4f4292f3571d","kind":"paragraph","order":70,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"一般的な半導体は、大きくFEOLとBEOLに分けて製造される。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5eb570a-56cd-4c6f-9dd5-818ee8537454","kind":"paragraph","order":71,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"FEOL","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19d2e7d6-a67e-4e43-8ecf-04912239373a","kind":"paragraph","order":72,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"FEOLはFront-End-of-Lineの略である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fa30649a-39e2-4597-a30c-42f78e019ccc","kind":"paragraph","order":73,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコン基板へ、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c8ba178-f48c-4884-85a6-bc92845d1276","kind":"paragraph","order":74,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"トランジスタ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_054405f0-556f-4bdc-a0bc-6d809df840df","kind":"paragraph","order":75,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"ソース","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9987f01-6dbe-4d0e-aef3-3f907a3025e4","kind":"paragraph","order":76,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"ドレイン","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d8f1a08-7563-4f26-a4f3-d38f3c1238e5","kind":"paragraph","order":77,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"ゲート","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d523ec22-861d-4d8e-a7a9-b1ee5d820748","kind":"paragraph","order":78,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"素子分離","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_517573be-8354-405b-a203-6034027acfb2","kind":"paragraph","order":79,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"などを形成する工程を指す。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6890b718-f5cd-46c3-b270-2f7834dde6fe","kind":"paragraph","order":80,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"BEOL","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eebb0733-3621-42d1-b5de-32a947ff16c4","kind":"paragraph","order":81,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"BEOLはBack-End-of-Lineの略である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3131689b-d53e-485b-adac-87b5dce1398f","kind":"paragraph","order":82,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"完成したトランジスタの上へ、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ea1917a-ac6f-4b49-ac0d-d6e89e908b9e","kind":"paragraph","order":83,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"コンタクト","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d714c007-3eca-4ada-bd16-4a988f1801b6","kind":"paragraph","order":84,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"ビア","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88aab573-d5e3-4b9e-adff-44b7e64049c0","kind":"paragraph","order":85,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"金属配線","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0766494-075a-4b43-83b1-367be4ab55e7","kind":"paragraph","order":86,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"層間絶縁膜","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a49bd7ab-1389-4196-bd78-679615d737cd","kind":"paragraph","order":87,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"などを積み重ねる工程である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf3f2a34-28ea-4ebe-b128-2ca9b449fce6","kind":"paragraph","order":88,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"一般的なロジック半導体","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9724439a-6676-4f59-aebd-be8e7b6d058e","kind":"paragraph","order":89,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"上側\n────────────────\n金属配線層          BEOL\n金属配線層\n金属配線層\n────────────────\nトランジスタ層      FEOL\n────────────────\nシリコン基板\n下側","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a2a56af6-11b6-4c7d-87e7-842a5b8d7f2c","kind":"paragraph","order":90,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"通常のDRAMでは、メモリセルを構成するトランジスタとキャパシターは、主としてシリコン側の素子工程へ形成される。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_68196607-80f6-4568-bc55-05bd6ee3e40a","kind":"paragraph","order":91,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"これに対してXBMでは、1T1C型DRAMを、薄膜トランジスタを使ってバックエンド側へ形成する構造が提案されている。特許では、各メモリダイが1T1C Backend DRAMを持ち、それらを多数のデータブロックとして配置する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e160a73b-641d-46a6-8bca-e5ede04299d1","kind":"paragraph","order":92,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMの概念","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b031c037-6bad-4a63-8b62-f84fa815b902","kind":"paragraph","order":93,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"上側\n────────────────\nBackend DRAMセル\n────────────────\n金属配線・HBI\n────────────────\n下側回路・シリコン\n────────────────","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_16c6e9ce-e751-496b-9e29-5b1195b1c428","kind":"paragraph","order":94,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、これは「GPUの配線層へ、そのまま大容量DRAMを作る」という意味ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ca97ad5a-42aa-4ab6-9d4f-ddb28ebe916f","kind":"paragraph","order":95,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"特許で示されている主な構成は、Backend DRAMを持つメモリダイを複数積層し、ベースダイを介して演算ダイへ接続するものである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d03652c-a4e8-4a8e-a29e-0430754c7a0b","kind":"paragraph","order":96,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってXBMは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41045bb6-c5b8-485e-bd7c-de2c15d4bbc2","kind":"paragraph","order":97,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリセルを演算ロジックへ直接埋め込む技術","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f33659ad-62d4-40f8-9491-c30c602fdcea","kind":"paragraph","order":98,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"というより、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_997ba461-5ef8-4d18-9fc3-edff0f82956b","kind":"paragraph","order":99,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"Backend DRAMを持つ専用メモリダイを、積層可能な部品として設計する技術","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc21dedc-2bf9-49bc-8019-e5a6c58e30ca","kind":"paragraph","order":100,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"と理解する方が正確である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4de1c83b-b15d-492c-91e6-b424f0a07339","kind":"paragraph","order":101,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"なぜDRAMをデータブロックへ分割するのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6918ad75-9674-4399-b679-dbc91522a7e9","kind":"paragraph","order":102,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMでは、DRAMアレイをdatablockと呼ばれる小さな単位へ分割する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4b27a822-90f0-473c-9e94-9dc1ef8f0a47","kind":"paragraph","order":103,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"特許の実施例では、1枚のメモリダイへ768個のデータブロックを配置し、それらをチャネル、サブチャネル、TSV gutterへ対応させている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_00fe69ba-39a0-4c39-886c-e3ff55aed32e","kind":"paragraph","order":104,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMメモリダイの概念","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_10d1daa8-3f01-4b3a-bd8a-c4751461ceb9","kind":"paragraph","order":105,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"┌────────────────────┐\n│ DB DB DB │ TSV │ DB DB DB │\n│ DB DB DB │ TSV │ DB DB DB │\n│ DB DB DB │ TSV │ DB DB DB │\n│ DB DB DB │ TSV │ DB DB DB │\n└────────────────────┘","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_47f7e4b3-f47f-45f1-b4e3-f67265d33cbe","kind":"paragraph","order":106,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"DB＝Datablock\nTSV gutter＝垂直配線を集めた領域","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_967c4267-a5c6-409c-ab49-efce5294844a","kind":"paragraph","order":107,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリ全体を一枚岩として扱うのではなく、小さなブロックへ分割すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_27925192-6f17-4145-96be-cea7783f5370","kind":"paragraph","order":108,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"サブチャネル単位で制御できる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ce124ea-1bcd-499e-be9f-a2794fb19503","kind":"paragraph","order":109,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"故障領域を切り離しやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ec9ec2d-0b90-4d12-87bf-9db18471f8cf","kind":"paragraph","order":110,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"予備ブロックへ置き換えやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_452c324e-a707-4ad4-bdfc-0b1451f00aec","kind":"paragraph","order":111,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"垂直配線を規則的に配置できる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_decce150-96ff-41c8-a8cd-c6a37405f0a5","kind":"paragraph","order":112,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"テスト範囲を細分化できる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9babd8ef-1d4c-4de1-9c16-dd3a496606a8","kind":"paragraph","order":113,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"という利点が生まれる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_457cae0a-ed2a-4c99-bb12-cd3acf76d015","kind":"paragraph","order":114,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは巨大なモノリシックSoCを小さなチップレットへ分割した考え方と似ている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_22b8a31e-79d2-4216-99a8-34f34a1aca48","kind":"paragraph","order":115,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大な回路を小さな機能単位へ分け、後からパッケージ上で再統合するのがチップレットだった。XBMでは同じ思想を、DRAMアレイ内部へ適用している。チップレットは単にダイを小型化することではなく、複数ダイで一つのシステムを構成することを前提に機能を分割する設計である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d17d60fc-486c-4ee0-a44b-1a2b5d9c049e","kind":"paragraph","order":116,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMはその意味で、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_211f92c6-8666-4661-b7f3-74c36c2e3ba2","kind":"paragraph","order":117,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"DRAMを、修復・積層・接続しやすいメモリ・チップレットへ再構成する試み","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d1fd0795-88f5-4947-80a4-d2661a1f4c8d","kind":"paragraph","order":118,"section_id":"sec_3746bb78-98da-4ff3-93ed-e21e2092a568","character_id":null,"markdown":"とも表現できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_16722676-9621-4ed7-97a4-f48f76190b09","kind":"heading","order":119,"section_id":"sec_18ce404e-8aea-42f2-ae3c-1c9eef8e707a","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Backend DRAMとXBMの変更点","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8dec737b-adf3-4026-8211-af20140f72bc","kind":"paragraph","order":120,"section_id":"sec_18ce404e-8aea-42f2-ae3c-1c9eef8e707a","character_id":null,"markdown":"FEOL・MOL・BEOL、ワード線、1T1C、通常DRAMとの違いを追い、Backend DRAMが変える製造位置を確かめる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3aa6930e-4b62-44f1-8c0c-88dfc5cc8054","kind":"figure","order":121,"section_id":"sec_18ce404e-8aea-42f2-ae3c-1c9eef8e707a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Backend DRAMとXBMの変更点 01](/media/e7122c3aeb6503c99245059ffeaf270d85a58a99143d9f557f15b925cee12f27-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7a0d6aa6-1a7d-4d7e-98fe-1299e99bb1e5","kind":"figure","order":122,"section_id":"sec_18ce404e-8aea-42f2-ae3c-1c9eef8e707a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Backend DRAMとXBMの変更点 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第二の変更――HBMの広い並列配線をUCIeへまとめる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ec06d27a-7e73-472e-995e-fd53591b01a6","kind":"paragraph","order":190,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のHBMは、演算ダイとの間に非常に多くの並列配線を置く。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3034d7a7-fae0-46ab-9c11-fbfd1f539b40","kind":"paragraph","order":191,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"多数の短距離レーンを使えば、各レーンを極端に高速化しなくても巨大な総帯域を得られる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f6395f76-48ed-4912-aa67-c66f131bb826","kind":"paragraph","order":192,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方、XBMはベースダイでデータをシリアライズし、32GT/sのUCIe I/O bundleを通じて演算ダイへ送る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2e98cb3e-91f4-4f48-b0c4-0a5187904db2","kind":"paragraph","order":193,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM型","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0d53ee37-41f7-4d09-9b06-6885d07d1546","kind":"paragraph","order":194,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"A B C D E F G H\n│ │ │ │ │ │ │ │\n多数の並列配線\n│ │ │ │ │ │ │ │\nGPU","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3b083d04-8b11-4f17-94ed-ce69214df97c","kind":"paragraph","order":195,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBM型","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_955d2818-0c5e-4941-a20f-7a596bb1e0c6","kind":"paragraph","order":196,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"A B C D E F G H\n        ↓\nシリアライザー\n        ↓\nA→B→C→D→E→F→G→H\n        ↓\nUCIeリンク\n        ↓\nGPU","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8232c3ce-b525-443a-983b-e74a67c80809","kind":"paragraph","order":197,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"少数の高速配線へシリアライズすると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2dde823d-9fd9-4c26-a600-d66f4c5ff6ad","kind":"paragraph","order":198,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"物理端子数を減らせる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2080aec0-6782-4f2e-b6ca-5356418ff431","kind":"paragraph","order":199,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"ダイ外周の使用量を減らせる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a8215fe8-e5c3-4a57-bc46-13ce9dcb637b","kind":"paragraph","order":200,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"パッケージ配線の自由度を高められる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aaff6233-467e-4ad4-812f-65d51a935263","kind":"paragraph","order":201,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンインターポーザー以外の経路を選びやすくなる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_726d257d-216f-4552-bcbf-ad0bca94e4d1","kind":"paragraph","order":202,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリをチップレットとして扱いやすくなる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b22015c-bb70-49df-8d3c-fe25536155d0","kind":"paragraph","order":203,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c385b998-3652-4ca2-b8bb-fa2e067db684","kind":"paragraph","order":204,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、無料で得られる利点ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8da4d285-062f-492e-ba33-9ec098ff0ce8","kind":"paragraph","order":205,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリアルリンクには、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3b61a99a-1a7f-4a41-803d-0f0ce96c0409","kind":"paragraph","order":206,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリアライザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4e403108-947f-4e31-8a8c-41a90eeea5bc","kind":"paragraph","order":207,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"デシリアライザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c07866e-e0bf-4ab0-a311-5a2f1562b1fb","kind":"paragraph","order":208,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"クロック回路","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a4ab0bdc-22dd-4602-9fc5-03146c2ee1c4","kind":"paragraph","order":209,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"タイミング補正","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c0da325-08d9-40c7-a455-9ee15bd9819d","kind":"paragraph","order":210,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"リンクトレーニング","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0b770cde-d4bd-49eb-8e47-415ab316f52e","kind":"paragraph","order":211,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"信号補償","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6dab17c9-c5e8-4736-9d9d-7c3c145d722c","kind":"paragraph","order":212,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"エラー検出","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f1e25daf-3300-4710-9c8f-e3c98b71a9ef","kind":"paragraph","order":213,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"PHY用電力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_92425a70-782b-4066-816a-3c4c738cc640","kind":"paragraph","order":214,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"が必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1cb3ffa9-36fd-4261-b61c-308d553fbc8d","kind":"paragraph","order":215,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"少数の高速配線は端子を減らせる一方、SerDes、PLL、CDR、イコライザーなどによって、回路面積、消費電力、遅延が増えやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b033a73d-bc66-4421-8f5f-5b6e67de5935","kind":"paragraph","order":216,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりXBMの成否は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_552bd6d1-7cf2-4069-a202-0a0b1c493b96","kind":"paragraph","order":217,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"インターポーザーと超並列配線を減らして得られる利益が、UCIe PHYの電力と面積を上回るか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f55a4789-b278-4eac-b7c3-6f4e9434b551","kind":"paragraph","order":218,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"で決まる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_986db712-d83a-4ff5-9f8a-6ae573528407","kind":"paragraph","order":219,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"32GT/sは現在のUCIeの上限ではない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4cc10c2c-cba1-4c5f-b580-b943913f763f","kind":"paragraph","order":220,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBM特許では、UCIe I/O bundleが32GT/sで動作する例が示されている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_719ca65c-1b7f-41c4-9932-912fda9484cc","kind":"paragraph","order":221,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、32GT/sは2026年現在のUCIe規格全体の上限ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4006c54b-5de2-44f4-93e4-d8900a799a80","kind":"paragraph","order":222,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"UCIe 3.0では48GT/sと64GT/sが追加され、UCIe 2.0の最大32GT/sからデータレートが倍増している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_401588f3-6f51-4d54-904c-2e592d7f21bc","kind":"paragraph","order":223,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e509a0c3-c503-4fdd-9a65-b8b947825a10","kind":"paragraph","order":224,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMはUCIeの上限である32GT/sを使う","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7a00be4c-93da-4ede-a377-a786b81fc614","kind":"paragraph","order":225,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"という説明は正確ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1be96780-8a42-4014-8b66-85e8641467a2","kind":"paragraph","order":226,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"正しくは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c6c9c3e5-f977-49b2-a98c-84295c709478","kind":"paragraph","order":227,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"2024年に出願されたXBMの実施例が、32GT/sのUCIe I/O bundleを想定している","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c4964293-cac1-4fd0-800c-7437dce24dca","kind":"paragraph","order":228,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ad402a2-605f-4ada-97e6-da098e9825d9","kind":"paragraph","order":229,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"将来XBMが製品化される場合、32GT/sのままなのか、48GT/sや64GT/sへ拡張するのか、あるいは独自のメモリ向けUCIe構成を使うのかは、まだ分からない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e67b1a5e-497d-408c-8d50-29b0009f774b","kind":"paragraph","order":230,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"UCIeを使えば、どのメモリでも交換可能になるのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_51f47a0d-5051-4955-bef5-d80fead92743","kind":"paragraph","order":231,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"UCIeは、単なる電気信号の規格ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8b6ac4d6-be97-40a5-8a9b-ab9d41d490b1","kind":"paragraph","order":232,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"同一パッケージ内のチップレットについて、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_281170e9-b623-4a41-8825-ed73bab0031c","kind":"paragraph","order":233,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Physical Layer","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_abc4a006-ebd2-4e93-9578-63424921167b","kind":"paragraph","order":234,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Die-to-Die Adapter","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_64d71f82-637d-4619-ad17-7271cb7c4fb0","kind":"paragraph","order":235,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Protocol Layer","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f75dadf-797d-4bdb-b189-0a4624a1c1b7","kind":"paragraph","order":236,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"リンク管理","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6fa99920-de50-458a-a75b-46a8ac0d4f70","kind":"paragraph","order":237,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"テスト","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b7385fc-554c-44f4-bb86-c73e29832a9c","kind":"paragraph","order":238,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"適合性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7bf21c61-5538-4f57-9849-6d77c0023dff","kind":"paragraph","order":239,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"などを扱う共通技術スタックである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_85517552-a42b-4385-855d-6fddcf32baaf","kind":"paragraph","order":240,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、XBM特許にUCIeと書かれているからといって、将来Intel製XBM、Samsung製メモリ、Micron製メモリを自由に差し替えられるとは限らない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd837f68-3519-4221-86d9-e6f088da718c","kind":"paragraph","order":241,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリとして動作するには、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c710a967-ab5b-4705-bdfa-c64e73abe686","kind":"paragraph","order":242,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"読み出しコマンド","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc597b54-dd70-4673-b387-59f777437b3d","kind":"paragraph","order":243,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"書き込みコマンド","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ee79f331-a6a4-44ee-9913-f8bc366c3094","kind":"paragraph","order":244,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"アドレス形式","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aef2a194-c5ba-46f7-9340-b8fe921fb539","kind":"paragraph","order":245,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"リフレッシュ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_03018b84-18a5-43d6-893d-f805aa1f2209","kind":"paragraph","order":246,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"バンク制御","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c6dd5f8c-44bc-455b-b2d1-9668f4ccdeb8","kind":"paragraph","order":247,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"エラー訂正","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_11c97077-2780-47f8-bddb-8f0b27aa8fc5","kind":"paragraph","order":248,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"順序制御","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_271f0acb-86f7-47d9-827d-25ebaab9dcba","kind":"paragraph","order":249,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"キャッシュ整合性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6e20a6a-804a-4b86-b026-7529d6d66e7d","kind":"paragraph","order":250,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"電力状態","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d7c51b7-d9d6-41d0-ba24-6ddc6b5c5954","kind":"paragraph","order":251,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"などを統一する必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4676461c-66ca-44b0-b3ce-a8f332fe45fb","kind":"paragraph","order":252,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"UCIeはデータを運ぶ共通基盤にはなり得るが、その上で使うメモリプロトコルやコントローラーまで、XBM特許だけで標準化されたわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3fd16c89-e048-4cc1-9c15-c08c0fc7126e","kind":"paragraph","order":253,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、XBMのUCIe利用は現時点では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3632aebb-9840-4c36-9d00-b40bb3cbf707","kind":"paragraph","order":254,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリをチップレット型リンクへ接続するためのアーキテクチャ上の選択","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0403d2dd-942c-441d-9760-6aad1fa7c67e","kind":"paragraph","order":255,"section_id":"sec_4c46a382-cc35-4ed0-8f02-5d8a29d1aba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"と考えるべきであり、交換可能な標準メモリ製品が成立したという意味ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9d797ee1-61db-4472-9c57-a1cd4c9dc2e0","kind":"heading","order":256,"section_id":"sec_fc05336f-73e9-46e8-8951-46cc9e6c51db","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜UCIeへの集約と速度の読み方","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e681d3e-0dc2-4aa4-a856-3404eb0cc3dc","kind":"figure","order":257,"section_id":"sec_fc05336f-73e9-46e8-8951-46cc9e6c51db","character_id":null,"markdown":"![UCIeへの集約と速度の読み方 01](/media/df8d220b540f696a0e3123b0ad21d0bda25dc9206ddc6aa8fda06906909b63cc-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f2f9d30-9e6a-44a1-825f-245ea9fb1961","kind":"figure","order":258,"section_id":"sec_fc05336f-73e9-46e8-8951-46cc9e6c51db","character_id":null,"markdown":"![UCIeへの集約と速度の読み方 02](/media/074825070c11871cd23ebe95ee5be0dcf0edd630b526d9926ff5d8280d7d4c93-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d2658075-b610-4ca5-8575-cb308f91961b","kind":"figure","order":259,"section_id":"sec_fc05336f-73e9-46e8-8951-46cc9e6c51db","character_id":null,"markdown":"![UCIeへの集約と速度の読み方 03](/media/d537a2be0da87473770fd8ddd622ea11fb57c06fe7bd0c2e93cac48e62c6b471-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e3b085d7-a84f-4165-aad1-701f48c6a8fb","kind":"heading","order":260,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第三の変更――ベースダイがメモリの頭脳になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2d50ee66-c126-47ad-9259-0f4b564cc44a","kind":"paragraph","order":261,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMでは、ベースダイが重要な役割を持つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_47c33e25-31d2-4293-88a1-83b4bc18e7d5","kind":"paragraph","order":262,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"特許の構成例では、ベースダイに、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9189f1c4-ebf6-4f61-9fc8-2931ecda20df","kind":"paragraph","order":263,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"UCIe I/O","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_466e2d83-b382-4f92-9c1d-9a1582982c84","kind":"paragraph","order":264,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリアライズ／デシリアライズ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8bb564c2-0016-417b-a6f8-77f013933f39","kind":"paragraph","order":265,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"テスト回路","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd6292cd-8791-4697-8a29-cb300012ac9c","kind":"paragraph","order":266,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"コントローラー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8256b1de-a2c5-4b1e-bedc-85751eff8e4b","kind":"paragraph","order":267,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"デバッグ回路","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_da8b8891-4278-43c1-86f1-9a0a1846679d","kind":"paragraph","order":268,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSV接続領域","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_46944414-a02b-467d-adf7-b4347f2db9c3","kind":"paragraph","order":269,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"予備チャネル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ac22b7f7-d578-4193-a265-dd730bb041d3","kind":"paragraph","order":270,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"組み立て後の修復機能","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bbf8071b-efd6-4818-bd1e-d9f91d0a51ae","kind":"paragraph","order":271,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"が配置される。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_657105a2-dd24-4963-b2c9-4a2c6a4bdfa9","kind":"paragraph","order":272,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMスタック","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b8b9cfa2-388f-4b27-8855-f4a891c1bbd3","kind":"paragraph","order":273,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"DRAMダイ\nDRAMダイ\nDRAMダイ\nDRAMダイ\n────────────\nActive Base Die\n・UCIe PHY\n・Memory Control\n・Test\n・Debug\n・Repair\n・Spare Array\n────────────\nパッケージ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c498d106-a880-45b0-95f7-388774c736cc","kind":"paragraph","order":274,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは、単なるパッシブなシリコンインターポーザーとは異なる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21bf6484-94c7-470e-9245-7e5bbad38821","kind":"paragraph","order":275,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"パッシブ・インターポーザーは、主として信号を横方向へ運ぶ配線基盤である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_176fee66-6048-4ce8-ac15-cb4f0ebf8116","kind":"paragraph","order":276,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方、アクティブ・ベースダイにはトランジスタ回路を置くことができ、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_11061198-9b77-4da2-b431-9188c5af306d","kind":"paragraph","order":277,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"NoC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_da4ef022-022f-45bd-b466-a3951a2c8431","kind":"paragraph","order":278,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"キャッシュ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e9cc552-2add-470e-b708-1b14adadc5cc","kind":"paragraph","order":279,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"I/O","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5efa9ee-aead-4d04-a039-a5744bc3ce75","kind":"paragraph","order":280,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリコントローラー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b96c9c1a-bdd3-49c9-bcba-a08091c3485f","kind":"paragraph","order":281,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"クロック","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ab6aab0-12fa-4e1e-b526-9117fb51a8bc","kind":"paragraph","order":282,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"電源管理","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_74d781ca-71b1-4884-94bd-a0427b3c2669","kind":"paragraph","order":283,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"セキュリティー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e9447d34-4c07-4f3c-a57f-9ab7ca89e0ed","kind":"paragraph","order":284,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"テスト回路","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5a27534f-8aeb-44f8-9e76-45e97f5e5035","kind":"paragraph","order":285,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"などを実装できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_556b1f9d-2d1f-4bd6-a7ee-4ded59700e5e","kind":"paragraph","order":286,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMでは、DRAMダイ側を比較的規則的なメモリアレイとして作り、複雑な通信、検査、修復をベースダイへ集める。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a6c45756-ecfb-41d9-a7b5-4b3cb0a0fd2a","kind":"paragraph","order":287,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fda1379a-f112-4487-af1c-bdb6e56e8109","kind":"paragraph","order":288,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"上層\n＝容量を担当するメモリ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f0c6cdc-b7c1-4f57-840d-c4e3bd3edcf5","kind":"paragraph","order":289,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"下層\n＝通信・制御・修復を担当するロジック","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7bac074b-8d34-48c6-b4d5-198718619028","kind":"paragraph","order":290,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"という機能分割である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ed9020df-1ec4-413a-87da-a7e6850465ec","kind":"paragraph","order":291,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じDRAMダイを繰り返し積層し、世代ごとにベースダイだけを更新できるなら、理論上はメモリセル製造とI/O技術の更新周期を分離できる可能性もある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bedd501b-cd54-482e-b716-4f3a066217c3","kind":"paragraph","order":292,"section_id":"sec_decf1ac5-1d5e-48ef-8671-86dc61f8e1ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、これが実際に可能かは、製造プロセス、接合方式、信頼性、コスト、顧客仕様によって決まる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_40795a4c-1b8c-4ef8-b249-0fc04033de1e","kind":"heading","order":293,"section_id":"sec_a442ccef-ed24-4c0b-8faa-73c4bb55d861","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜アクティブ・ベースダイの役割","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8632aece-a52a-4530-8160-3ee0a51fec0f","kind":"figure","order":294,"section_id":"sec_a442ccef-ed24-4c0b-8faa-73c4bb55d861","character_id":null,"markdown":"![アクティブ・ベースダイの役割 01](/media/b31905e36b56c1bb83d9d8ef245d2a137e89cdf582ceb54da54dd48a02e2e20a-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dbbe671d-b7e4-4f9e-b23d-8dd966e3b4a2","kind":"figure","order":295,"section_id":"sec_a442ccef-ed24-4c0b-8faa-73c4bb55d861","character_id":null,"markdown":"![アクティブ・ベースダイの役割 02](/media/5fab1ba0d1afef6e557e0d916d682f2e19c29185a0dc6e3beb212a1df1436782-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6e3b017b-2cd2-4002-82ec-b6ca7e2b6a76","kind":"heading","order":296,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第四の変更――不良を避けるのではなく、完成後に修復する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7615db5f-7f2f-4b76-937f-7a9136d0487e","kind":"paragraph","order":297,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"積層メモリでは、歩留まりが重要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ee9e9798-c56a-4fbc-96dd-f5e90bee7ff2","kind":"paragraph","order":298,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"8枚のメモリダイを積層し、そのうち1枚に重大な不良があれば、高価なスタック全体を失う可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c0d3f1ac-e5a8-44f2-9524-97743d768120","kind":"paragraph","order":299,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"良品\n  ＋\n良品\n  ＋\n良品\n  ＋\n不良品\n  ↓\n完成した積層メモリ全体が不良","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c3012d38-1dc3-414e-9689-9015c7a39d2a","kind":"paragraph","order":300,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため3D積層では、組み立て前に各ダイを検査し、Known Good Dieだけを使うことが重要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_09c586f0-23f3-4616-90ac-bab378e107f9","kind":"paragraph","order":301,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、微細な接続端子は直接検査しにくく、完成後と同じ電源・温度・接続条件をダイ単体で再現できるとも限らない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b89c8d8d-d47e-48ab-8ed0-032bae18ab9b","kind":"paragraph","order":302,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMは、この問題に対して冗長性を積極的に利用する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7f345dd-4514-42e7-86bc-766b46a1b3ca","kind":"paragraph","order":303,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"特許では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3a27bf3d-cc9f-4bb6-9c8a-9da8354ee701","kind":"paragraph","order":304,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"各メモリダイのBIST","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d77a8a8b-62d2-42e4-b485-2a1852f85688","kind":"paragraph","order":305,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"冗長メモリアレイ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e7b73d23-3c5c-43a5-87e4-e566dcd325e4","kind":"paragraph","order":306,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"予備チャネル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4696cf83-881d-4f98-b28f-8e48b28f472c","kind":"paragraph","order":307,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"予備サブチャネル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66789b0d-4722-4192-94c8-50a103295888","kind":"paragraph","order":308,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"デバッグ機構","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e661d7ab-9063-4ca4-a4dd-ba659226e81c","kind":"paragraph","order":309,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"組み立て後の修復","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e64a519-5e68-4db9-ba28-f87accf4a0c6","kind":"paragraph","order":310,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"が示されている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e2bcfe46-426a-40db-bcd4-64125f6e59e3","kind":"paragraph","order":311,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"例示されたベースダイには、修復資源として4個の予備ダイ・サブチャネル、合計32個のデータブロックが配置される。上側ダイに修復不能な欠陥が見つかった場合、ベースダイ側の予備領域を代替として利用する考え方である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ed2dd54f-2117-419b-b4e4-b4e0076c4c02","kind":"paragraph","order":312,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"通常時","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_318b485f-58c5-4efa-904c-26cc68f9162d","kind":"paragraph","order":313,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"上側DRAMのDB 0\n上側DRAMのDB 1\n上側DRAMのDB 2\n        ↓\n     ベースダイ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f692070-59bc-40a1-a5ed-a7c4ccc0b239","kind":"paragraph","order":314,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"DB 1が故障","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4a1ef970-cb2e-4987-af9d-235330222efd","kind":"paragraph","order":315,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"上側DRAMのDB 0\n上側DRAMのDB 1 ×\n上側DRAMのDB 2\n        ↓\nベースダイの予備DBへ置換","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_34c95400-c688-46d2-a0f4-31b6002cc3b2","kind":"paragraph","order":316,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"これはチップレットやウェハースケールプロセッサーでも見られる考え方である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_49d7763a-62d1-422c-8776-36ca34949e75","kind":"paragraph","order":317,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"欠陥を完全になくすのではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aaa7af86-eb0c-4e8a-856f-087887882846","kind":"paragraph","order":318,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"欠陥があっても、正常な領域と予備領域を使って製品として成立させる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dbbb8b0a-dc93-4bd3-b3ec-8da78b244e52","kind":"paragraph","order":319,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"のである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e31c017f-e0f6-4921-af2d-1340acc4c74f","kind":"paragraph","order":320,"section_id":"sec_9b1ee30f-23c4-4801-a332-204e1c756c8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"積層数が増えるほど、この修復能力は重要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0adaf722-75f7-478b-a1f5-f1fd047b4e3e","kind":"heading","order":321,"section_id":"sec_26a60d12-30b3-46b5-a581-208bbc46c3ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜データブロック分割と完成後修復","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f4928b0b-51bb-4d91-a83e-be4d950823cc","kind":"figure","order":322,"section_id":"sec_26a60d12-30b3-46b5-a581-208bbc46c3ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"![データブロック分割と完成後修復 01](/media/27805296399e7fcb7058c2b3896c1b37944fad4db7b14dfad7f0685f86d398e3-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a602d55a-a613-4d4f-98bb-808371bcdbd7","kind":"figure","order":323,"section_id":"sec_26a60d12-30b3-46b5-a581-208bbc46c3ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"![データブロック分割と完成後修復 02](/media/de2c907cd7f55d727cd71e938d8fdb4387431271381e60e29c03f9b66a013ccd-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d4f88868-ad77-4b4c-8a78-039c89812b01","kind":"figure","order":324,"section_id":"sec_26a60d12-30b3-46b5-a581-208bbc46c3ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"![データブロック分割と完成後修復 03](/media/792a5b2c4628cf001fd70abb6b5d3ffef7eebba995bbb2ee579eda6e2f8ae4d5-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fe4f2204-35cb-41eb-8b2d-7dbed6f0a6fc","kind":"heading","order":325,"section_id":"sec_e45d6e54-e254-41b1-8f43-f3366914110b","character_id":null,"markdown":"## TSV gutterとは何か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8a4609e3-dbb3-44d1-8126-ade9d025be47","kind":"paragraph","order":326,"section_id":"sec_e45d6e54-e254-41b1-8f43-f3366914110b","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMでも、積層したメモリダイを上下へ接続するためにTSVが使われる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b7a149d6-173b-4c46-a019-1c350492ed43","kind":"paragraph","order":327,"section_id":"sec_e45d6e54-e254-41b1-8f43-f3366914110b","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし特許では、TSVをダイ全体へ均等に散らすのではなく、TSV gutterと呼ばれる領域へまとめる構造が示されている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56e2b01d-58d0-4e0a-ab22-e18a8397b972","kind":"paragraph","order":328,"section_id":"sec_e45d6e54-e254-41b1-8f43-f3366914110b","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリダイ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af2b1cd0-8ff1-4f92-b2aa-b438a4b91e37","kind":"paragraph","order":329,"section_id":"sec_e45d6e54-e254-41b1-8f43-f3366914110b","character_id":null,"markdown":"データブロック\n████████","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf18863b-51f1-4efb-aceb-3f484d47a97b","kind":"paragraph","order":330,"section_id":"sec_e45d6e54-e254-41b1-8f43-f3366914110b","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSV gutter\n││││││││","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7149cbce-aa1b-47f3-8703-5fd7ea7b74f5","kind":"paragraph","order":331,"section_id":"sec_e45d6e54-e254-41b1-8f43-f3366914110b","character_id":null,"markdown":"データブロック\n████████","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef8618a4-e51f-436c-8e54-df835eaefcb8","kind":"paragraph","order":332,"section_id":"sec_e45d6e54-e254-41b1-8f43-f3366914110b","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSV gutterは、上下のダイ間で、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0b4be0ac-2bd8-4db4-8b23-df2869013ff9","kind":"paragraph","order":333,"section_id":"sec_e45d6e54-e254-41b1-8f43-f3366914110b","character_id":null,"markdown":"読み出しデータ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b67ef8c-0f61-4047-b23a-1156f3533720","kind":"paragraph","order":334,"section_id":"sec_e45d6e54-e254-41b1-8f43-f3366914110b","character_id":null,"markdown":"書き込みデータ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_206a06c4-5aca-44f8-a079-c5092f16c55c","kind":"paragraph","order":335,"section_id":"sec_e45d6e54-e254-41b1-8f43-f3366914110b","character_id":null,"markdown":"コマンド","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2646ecf7-85fa-4715-9eb1-c57ca357e11c","kind":"paragraph","order":336,"section_id":"sec_e45d6e54-e254-41b1-8f43-f3366914110b","character_id":null,"markdown":"制御信号","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bdc979e9-a4f7-4891-be65-4b743b300340","kind":"paragraph","order":337,"section_id":"sec_e45d6e54-e254-41b1-8f43-f3366914110b","character_id":null,"markdown":"クロック","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_55a4dbf9-f3af-4803-9d0f-33700a315b33","kind":"paragraph","order":338,"section_id":"sec_e45d6e54-e254-41b1-8f43-f3366914110b","character_id":null,"markdown":"などを運ぶ垂直配線の通路である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bcec7c8f-24b6-4e2e-b721-e26a410d2507","kind":"paragraph","order":339,"section_id":"sec_e45d6e54-e254-41b1-8f43-f3366914110b","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSVはダイ同士を接着する技術ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_801c7f74-9c0d-4f8e-978a-67ae119f1539","kind":"paragraph","order":340,"section_id":"sec_e45d6e54-e254-41b1-8f43-f3366914110b","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSVは、1枚のシリコンを厚さ方向へ貫通し、ダイの表側と裏側を接続する配線である。Hybrid Bondingやマイクロバンプはダイ境界面の接続を担当し、TSVはダイ内部の垂直配線を担当する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c442819-2a7f-4529-83c5-ef8fed93f6b7","kind":"paragraph","order":341,"section_id":"sec_e45d6e54-e254-41b1-8f43-f3366914110b","character_id":null,"markdown":"上側メモリ回路\n       ↓\n      TSV\n       ↓\n接合面\n       ↓\n次のメモリダイ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c5af68fd-8096-4226-8559-f30950176517","kind":"paragraph","order":342,"section_id":"sec_e45d6e54-e254-41b1-8f43-f3366914110b","character_id":null,"markdown":"特許では、TSV gutterと両面のHigh Bandwidth Interconnectを使い、8層以上のメモリダイを積層する構成が示されている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af948bb7-853e-460a-8fe5-6475f2bed269","kind":"heading","order":343,"section_id":"sec_48081718-363c-4cf7-9566-081b90aca926","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜TSV gutterの構造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_502c5571-37a5-4495-8cd7-d163374b6ce0","kind":"figure","order":344,"section_id":"sec_48081718-363c-4cf7-9566-081b90aca926","character_id":null,"markdown":"![TSV gutterの構造 01](/media/acc994be7f4f1aff6928c8af98373f71622130582dd767f18ed31018ae9dac35-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1f2a342e-add9-4864-8528-f74524df4b99","kind":"heading","order":345,"section_id":"sec_ef9c4284-d0c3-4431-86d7-ea84e7a403d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"## XBMはHybrid Bondingを使うのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_447a4049-0c2c-49b9-97bf-018b61b62f04","kind":"paragraph","order":346,"section_id":"sec_ef9c4284-d0c3-4431-86d7-ea84e7a403d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMとHybrid Bondingは、同じものではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_be9f1c5b-1763-40c7-91a0-abad465d22d1","kind":"paragraph","order":347,"section_id":"sec_ef9c4284-d0c3-4431-86d7-ea84e7a403d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Hybrid Bondingは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_68d0cf7e-1be6-4146-ae59-b2631323f12a","kind":"paragraph","order":348,"section_id":"sec_ef9c4284-d0c3-4431-86d7-ea84e7a403d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Cu-to-Cu","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d66bac0f-953a-4f63-905e-81c8978bf37d","kind":"paragraph","order":349,"section_id":"sec_ef9c4284-d0c3-4431-86d7-ea84e7a403d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"誘電体-to-誘電体","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_05cd4e5c-a314-4cc0-8686-118d454f9ec2","kind":"paragraph","order":350,"section_id":"sec_ef9c4284-d0c3-4431-86d7-ea84e7a403d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"を同時に接合し、マイクロバンプを使わずにダイ同士を高密度接続する技術である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c8b3b80-d261-4eb7-bd31-93eda43aa574","kind":"paragraph","order":351,"section_id":"sec_ef9c4284-d0c3-4431-86d7-ea84e7a403d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方、XBMはメモリ全体のアーキテクチャである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c852fddf-36d2-46cf-b985-78d93df69a2f","kind":"paragraph","order":352,"section_id":"sec_ef9c4284-d0c3-4431-86d7-ea84e7a403d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBM特許では、ダイ積層についてWafer-to-WaferとDie-to-Dieの両方が例示され、ダイ薄化や両面インターコネクトが記載されている。しかし、将来の商用品が特定のCu-to-Cu Hybrid Bonding方式を必ず採用すると確定しているわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1938b264-e560-46fd-99a5-be876ec04085","kind":"paragraph","order":353,"section_id":"sec_ef9c4284-d0c3-4431-86d7-ea84e7a403d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"整理すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5252dc76-a2ba-40a7-9ba4-95c5e5d4cb98","kind":"table","order":354,"section_id":"sec_ef9c4284-d0c3-4431-86d7-ea84e7a403d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 技術 | 役割 |\n| --- | --- |\n| XBM | 高帯域メモリ全体のアーキテクチャ |\n| Backend DRAM | メモリセルの構造 |\n| TSV gutter | 積層内の垂直配線 |\n| HBI | ダイ間の高帯域接続 |\n| Hybrid Bonding | ダイ接合に利用できる技術 |\n| UCIe | メモリと演算ダイを結ぶ通信方式 |\n| ベースダイ | 通信、制御、検査、修復 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71e80561-28d8-42a9-94ba-99c25e55cc20","kind":"paragraph","order":355,"section_id":"sec_ef9c4284-d0c3-4431-86d7-ea84e7a403d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_90c9a154-861f-4df0-b31c-5fef5443b2c8","kind":"paragraph","order":356,"section_id":"sec_ef9c4284-d0c3-4431-86d7-ea84e7a403d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"将来XBMが微細ピッチのHybrid Bondingを採用する可能性はある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fdbb455a-f944-44f2-ae87-91e020d2a9ae","kind":"paragraph","order":357,"section_id":"sec_ef9c4284-d0c3-4431-86d7-ea84e7a403d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21b20cf4-6e5e-47af-b693-ad97451f4faf","kind":"paragraph","order":358,"section_id":"sec_ef9c4284-d0c3-4431-86d7-ea84e7a403d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMとはHybrid Bondingを使ったHBMである","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6560f529-63cd-4f21-91df-1b8efd3c97ce","kind":"paragraph","order":359,"section_id":"sec_ef9c4284-d0c3-4431-86d7-ea84e7a403d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"とだけ説明すると、Backend DRAM、UCIe、ベースダイ、修復機能という重要な特徴が抜け落ちる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c826ecc-eb3b-46cb-94d2-950282dacfad","kind":"heading","order":360,"section_id":"sec_ac02ce93-2feb-4c52-ad2f-da2050855401","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Hybrid Bondingとの関係","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_86fa330f-37aa-4a71-8e37-b64fb651d6e6","kind":"figure","order":361,"section_id":"sec_ac02ce93-2feb-4c52-ad2f-da2050855401","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Hybrid Bondingとの関係 01](/media/a4fc4fd1be317985333a6718dc3008c0e54e452088f8ea595b3ed2fdd79e2e39-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88bf1371-cc9d-4acb-84d0-854e52aedd16","kind":"heading","order":362,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"## XBMはシリコンインターポーザーをなくすのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6596653f-5751-4411-a750-458b7a44d51c","kind":"paragraph","order":363,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMについては、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_035acea3-1008-4a4b-89fa-01ae73efa25a","kind":"paragraph","order":364,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンインターポーザーを完全に不要にする","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d09772d-d841-4244-8f2a-7854806ec26a","kind":"paragraph","order":365,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"という説明が見られる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c573d364-d0bb-46bd-b53c-2504f8195d2d","kind":"paragraph","order":366,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、特許全体を読むと、もう少し慎重に表現する必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_99252eea-bc24-4f54-96d0-02952a13cd76","kind":"paragraph","order":367,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"特許の初期構成には、HBMスタックとロジックダイをシリコンインターポーザーへ搭載する例も含まれている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ba3ac62c-666d-440d-9d1d-330fdbfde438","kind":"paragraph","order":368,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"その一方で、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c309ee52-1d75-4cdf-9ad2-7afbc422f7af","kind":"paragraph","order":369,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリスタックをパッケージ基板へ搭載するMemory-on-Package","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8116d264-a77e-46b0-80bf-9505096bde06","kind":"paragraph","order":370,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリ用の中間基板を省く構造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_365ba73c-89af-425b-954a-362b7b228277","kind":"paragraph","order":371,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"モールド内へメモリスタックを埋め込む構造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bef11a9a-bdbf-4a62-ac1a-85ebe2aafb08","kind":"paragraph","order":372,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"Reversed Overhang Memory-on-Package","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e3f2bdba-1456-40e4-8dab-c26d04971d0b","kind":"paragraph","order":373,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"電源をVR／PMICから直接供給する構造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a206cf42-b727-4dfd-acdb-6f0c11489a30","kind":"paragraph","order":374,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"なども示されている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c062a7e3-2ecc-436c-aeba-5a7dfe3170b7","kind":"paragraph","order":375,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"インターポーザー型","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_320b0362-60ca-4ac7-b942-4454bc760a1f","kind":"paragraph","order":376,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBM     Compute\n │         │\n ═══════════\n Silicon Interposer\n        │\n Package Substrate","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_278e457e-7d2d-4325-a19c-2d659e98998f","kind":"paragraph","order":377,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"直接パッケージ型","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d2c3ca9e-4db5-423a-a8cb-fab70bba2013","kind":"paragraph","order":378,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBM     Compute Module\n │          │\n Package Substrate","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ae2d42a0-3c0b-4477-b9eb-ed6f3a42ec8f","kind":"paragraph","order":379,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、XBMの狙いは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c7292231-1f5a-446b-a2a0-e04eb5a77e5c","kind":"paragraph","order":380,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"必ずシリコンインターポーザーを完全排除する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_53283a91-f49b-468d-8453-47acc9d49b29","kind":"paragraph","order":381,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_60ce9bb5-6940-4a15-a98d-566dd16d06fe","kind":"paragraph","order":382,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"超広幅のHBMインターフェースへの依存を減らし、メモリの配置方法とパッケージ構造の選択肢を増やす","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_958aecef-883a-4cfa-b211-6cd97cf2b190","kind":"paragraph","order":383,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことにある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7bfb4f5c-57d2-4cf8-989e-21fcd49433d8","kind":"paragraph","order":384,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"UCIeによる接続で十分な帯域と電力効率を得られれば、全面シリコンインターポーザーを使わず、有機基板、ブリッジ、RDLなどを組み合わせる余地が広がる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a318fd39-4865-469e-b907-9e636b8a0366","kind":"paragraph","order":385,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、実際にどの構造が最適になるかは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c3ebb639-bed2-4a4b-ae5d-1a0303edad90","kind":"paragraph","order":386,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"UCIeのレーン数","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9adac1fb-843d-4bcc-8184-56a8260c98b1","kind":"paragraph","order":387,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"1レーン当たりの速度","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ed6b917b-92e6-41d2-be92-947797ed8b17","kind":"paragraph","order":388,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"配線距離","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6c3d4752-dc1f-4225-87bb-5527edf5e409","kind":"paragraph","order":389,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"信号損失","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ff0bf0c-ebe8-4b49-839e-98e36629c90f","kind":"paragraph","order":390,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要帯域","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_24cf8e1f-330c-4a47-a222-25d6186f7228","kind":"paragraph","order":391,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"PHY電力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ee119345-a200-433e-b2c2-522550cecfe2","kind":"paragraph","order":392,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"パッケージ面積","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_74a3d83b-3801-4aad-b995-cabe729c57bb","kind":"paragraph","order":393,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"製造コスト","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e0d3823-d2a6-468e-8a21-5fbec650691e","kind":"paragraph","order":394,"section_id":"sec_f2df370e-c233-4f34-9adc-0de57ac2ddb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"によって変わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c6c3d0f0-5bd3-47e4-9eea-46f03eed4c83","kind":"heading","order":395,"section_id":"sec_79f290e3-9c99-4368-8503-b8dac52fdd74","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜シリコンインターポーザーの扱い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a93096a9-9dc0-4ef9-b44b-628f49e8aa6f","kind":"figure","order":396,"section_id":"sec_79f290e3-9c99-4368-8503-b8dac52fdd74","character_id":null,"markdown":"![シリコンインターポーザーの扱い 01](/media/d5d11ad8958d2d7a1af965138881f8c2d782560cc91a2173814ed892fe25aff4-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eec7df4f-e4e4-4e8e-a803-74fb90a5b268","kind":"heading","order":397,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"## XBMはLogic Foldingなのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0723589e-114d-4450-9bb1-22e7953a58bd","kind":"paragraph","order":398,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"Logic Foldingは、平面上へ並べていた機能を上下のシリコン層へ分割し、短い垂直配線で再接続する設計思想である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bdbf5448-7cfc-495f-9f89-c48ed31ce71e","kind":"paragraph","order":399,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4a015f92-158f-47c7-9e81-292b153791d7","kind":"paragraph","order":400,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_37e82c52-d52c-48be-bcb9-a64493d106ac","kind":"paragraph","order":401,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"Compute ─ Cache ─ I/O ─ Memory Control","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e16a3ff5-af1c-40f3-a7a6-7ebcb1c75675","kind":"paragraph","order":402,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"を、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ba99b135-09ae-4b2d-88a2-53afd0f8fae1","kind":"paragraph","order":403,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"上層：SRAM／Memory\n          │\n中層：Compute\n          │\n下層：I/O／Control／Power","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_afd9bd84-62cb-4218-8f44-29edb56b2952","kind":"paragraph","order":404,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ再配置する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f7d1b53-c4ec-446e-80ad-bb748a741c58","kind":"paragraph","order":405,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMは、GPUの演算回路とDRAMを極細ピッチで直接上下に積層する構造ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a1cec32f-1d9c-4acc-9635-9669324f0e9b","kind":"paragraph","order":406,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため、XBMそのものを狭い意味でのLogic Foldingと呼ぶのは適切ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f74a636-d3d1-498c-a67f-c0f937d6ad56","kind":"paragraph","order":407,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、設計思想は強く連続している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c7d7cba-fe41-40e4-8a19-4a1bfc9ac310","kind":"paragraph","order":408,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d1644c9c-4de7-4e84-afdb-6e33e0990fca","kind":"paragraph","order":409,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"上層\n＝Backend DRAM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d17a86e1-e035-4ab6-becc-65afa5c8e61d","kind":"paragraph","order":410,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"下層\n＝UCIe・テスト・修復を持つベースダイ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21c2fc62-ece2-495c-be98-929e3b668249","kind":"paragraph","order":411,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"横方向\n＝GPU／XPUとのチップレット接続","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_de022cac-32be-4e15-9d6b-22f101378f4b","kind":"paragraph","order":412,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"という機能分割を行う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a2ac7125-4af2-4885-8d56-91e795d67aca","kind":"paragraph","order":413,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2d0e36ed-74f0-4b2e-894c-ff4649510438","kind":"paragraph","order":414,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリセル、垂直配線、通信、制御、修復を、それぞれに適した層とダイへ分けて再統合する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad294bbf-f885-4870-8028-3915f0a23e1f","kind":"paragraph","order":415,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"という点では、Logic FoldingやCMOS 2.0に近い方向にある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c76fa04a-e46c-44f5-8dd5-1e43920b1fde","kind":"paragraph","order":416,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"これまでの流れをつなぐと、次のようになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3285b1ad-739d-4a5e-af34-50f04f76232b","kind":"paragraph","order":417,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大モノリシックSoC\n        ↓\nレチクル・歩留まり・コストの壁\n        ↓\nチップレット\n        ↓\n2.5Dパッケージ\n        ↓\nマイクロバンプ\n        ↓\nHybrid Bonding\n        ↓\nTSV\n        ↓\nDie-to-Die PHY\n        ↓\nUCIe\n        ↓\nアクティブ・ベースダイ\n        ↓\nLogic Folding\n        ↓\nXBM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_72e8c36e-2cac-4552-8a12-4db7cc75ddfb","kind":"paragraph","order":418,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMはこの最後に突然現れた別の技術ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fac73750-825e-42a3-abcd-aefde49dc5a0","kind":"paragraph","order":419,"section_id":"sec_1573bdcf-df7d-4d67-a349-3a616bffc147","character_id":null,"markdown":"これまで個別に扱ってきた技術を、メモリ側で一つのアーキテクチャへまとめたものなのである。連載全体でも、半導体設計の単位はダイからチップレット、3Dスタック、パッケージ全体へ拡大してきた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4a714fa7-4105-4c28-8bbd-a20807dad7f5","kind":"heading","order":420,"section_id":"sec_4dd4f0a5-8322-463a-81cb-25dded75d2be","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜XBMとLogic Foldingの違い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a76c2d19-39e1-4ed1-974f-f01fd828e650","kind":"figure","order":421,"section_id":"sec_4dd4f0a5-8322-463a-81cb-25dded75d2be","character_id":null,"markdown":"![XBMとLogic Foldingの違い 01](/media/dfaa7ccbf53ceb0849c82d97a1c1e2df71cfb493ee8971da130d14ef052fcf0e-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7796d028-1f7f-470a-8012-285be9daca6a","kind":"figure","order":422,"section_id":"sec_4dd4f0a5-8322-463a-81cb-25dded75d2be","character_id":null,"markdown":"![XBMとLogic Foldingの違い 02](/media/7f154ab903941faa7d1a75ff59a642db63bb95fca91b4ecbc88dd725fafe433d-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e9b2e67-1096-49f2-a28d-b2a649a0975f","kind":"heading","order":423,"section_id":"sec_57c6591d-261b-40ac-9111-9d5d9a78adcc","character_id":null,"markdown":"## HBMとXBMの比較","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5995dc86-64d0-4232-99de-4bbb7145ab9c","kind":"table","order":424,"section_id":"sec_57c6591d-261b-40ac-9111-9d5d9a78adcc","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 項目 | 現在のHBM | XBM構想 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 技術段階 | 量産・広範な採用 | 特許出願段階 |\n| メモリセル | 一般的なDRAMプロセス | 1T1C Backend DRAM |\n| 積層 | 複数のDRAMダイ | 8層以上を想定 |\n| 垂直配線 | TSV | TSV gutter＋HBI |\n| ダイ境界 | マイクロバンプ、将来は直接接合も想定 | 特許上はW2W／D2D積層 |\n| GPUとの接続 | 非常に広い並列インターフェース | UCIe I/O bundle |\n| 主な配線基盤 | シリコンインターポーザー | インターポーザーまたは直接パッケージ構造 |\n| ベースダイ | PHY、制御、HBMインターフェース | UCIe、テスト、デバッグ、修復、予備領域 |\n| 故障対応 | ダイテスト、冗長セル、製品内修復 | スタック横断の予備データブロック |\n| 主な利点 | 成熟した高帯域・低通信電力 | パッケージ自由度、修復性、チップレット統合 |\n| 主なリスク | インターポーザー、パッケージ容量、コスト | Backend DRAM、PHY電力、歩留まり、量産性 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c37c777-4506-4c6c-8790-576e469b4f60","kind":"heading","order":425,"section_id":"sec_436d37b0-c618-4c7c-86d0-2810df6c7519","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜HBMとXBMの比較表","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_807cce1e-903b-47d5-b788-959c1de448d7","kind":"figure","order":426,"section_id":"sec_436d37b0-c618-4c7c-86d0-2810df6c7519","character_id":null,"markdown":"![HBMとXBMの比較表 01](/media/5a985ada857d5cf62042140d929d9b97934482ed8c8ab3a471fd92ee3ed6c221-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f34ff3c-1c12-43d8-9dd7-25b456547d47","kind":"heading","order":427,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"## XBMの最大の利点は何か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fbdb621a-68fe-4192-bc5f-3778a0b97eaa","kind":"paragraph","order":428,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMの最大の利点は、単純な最大帯域ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_213458b4-d5ac-4243-952e-b019a8ebfaea","kind":"paragraph","order":429,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"現時点では実測製品が存在しないため、HBM4より速い、消費電力が低い、製造コストが安いと断定することはできない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12669485-d812-497e-a1a4-bb901902964e","kind":"paragraph","order":430,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMの本当の価値は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_51b1657e-f5db-4b43-ae66-b41a3446fb41","kind":"paragraph","order":431,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリを、特定の巨大インターポーザーへ固定された部品から、UCIeで接続可能なチップレットへ変えようとしていること","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e7dba89a-58a2-45e6-9e66-7229b8ad3924","kind":"paragraph","order":432,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"にある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c3ee539d-5ca2-4874-8071-ff902b42e131","kind":"paragraph","order":433,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"もし成立すれば、AIプロセッサー設計者は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_600ced16-8b57-4360-bfbe-f9314bda814f","kind":"paragraph","order":434,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMスタックの数","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e26feab-e561-4023-baf8-0c2ab8f4f5d8","kind":"paragraph","order":435,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"容量","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56de29d4-c370-4388-af43-8d17495625e2","kind":"paragraph","order":436,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"ベースダイ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd093408-0a5b-4fde-95a4-ca8531d0ab62","kind":"paragraph","order":437,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"パッケージ配置","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3d1c018-2d61-4e54-8b12-f472f04b78ce","kind":"paragraph","order":438,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"UCIeレーン数","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_341c8013-3b02-4443-98f3-e31cbce425ca","kind":"paragraph","order":439,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"製造ノード","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_648b0c02-ad4d-42c4-89a4-c90fa439ff14","kind":"paragraph","order":440,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリ供給元","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bdbe3538-e05f-463d-8efe-26e5808dab38","kind":"paragraph","order":441,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"修復機能","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6e3f40d-a91a-460a-9462-dddc673e4846","kind":"paragraph","order":442,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"を、よりモジュール的に設計できる可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_77325902-628d-44ee-9e68-aa852e100b1b","kind":"paragraph","order":443,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_59a52404-264c-40b3-8dbb-64fa1c611b9d","kind":"paragraph","order":444,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"特定GPU\n  ＋\n特定HBM構成\n  ＋\n特定インターポーザー\n  ＋\n特定パッケージ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_382eff35-39fe-477c-bd79-d6274c677b25","kind":"paragraph","order":445,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMが目指す方向","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6336d68d-fe66-4489-adbe-cb6aff0d03e2","kind":"paragraph","order":446,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"Compute Chiplet\n      ＋\nMemory Chiplet\n      ＋\nI/O Chiplet\n      ＋\nActive Base Die\n      ＋\nPackage Network","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b251b2a8-af37-4f82-b67e-82c70d1d5a9f","kind":"paragraph","order":447,"section_id":"sec_1ac80d9e-92e4-441d-bab9-9e6401a3adfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"これはメモリを、GPUに付属する受動的な部品ではなく、パッケージ内ネットワークへ参加するアクティブな構成要素へ変える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f89e4814-a093-4a6b-8dcf-1ff6fa933504","kind":"heading","order":448,"section_id":"sec_c66d42dd-3420-424b-8245-f1013b074a21","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜XBMの最大の利点","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0fa84a56-ec30-4f86-a533-021f70213ea8","kind":"figure","order":449,"section_id":"sec_c66d42dd-3420-424b-8245-f1013b074a21","character_id":null,"markdown":"![XBMの最大の利点 01](/media/1300fb764b33e636ced0d2ffe15d88f4a23f84308915cbed291935c561b8e7fa-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_068e2d71-9cbd-44ee-8c1a-610004d0f2df","kind":"heading","order":450,"section_id":"sec_4f7c88b9-eba9-4e64-917b-b3d8dfd8f239","character_id":null,"markdown":"## XBMの最大の弱点は何か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bef50bac-7a69-4cf6-834c-5e0ab04d0188","kind":"paragraph","order":451,"section_id":"sec_4f7c88b9-eba9-4e64-917b-b3d8dfd8f239","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMが実用化されるには、複数の技術的課題を同時に解決する必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_07fa9faa-3182-40c5-9f30-aaa03bb39896","kind":"heading","order":452,"section_id":"sec_421be590-07a5-4050-966b-8f9d8c58a6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 1．Backend DRAMの量産性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_76a3be2e-b204-4cce-88ad-43276c2df34d","kind":"paragraph","order":453,"section_id":"sec_421be590-07a5-4050-966b-8f9d8c58a6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"薄膜トランジスタを使うBackend DRAMで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_76e67b41-e296-4d07-b8f2-01139cf418e3","kind":"paragraph","order":454,"section_id":"sec_421be590-07a5-4050-966b-8f9d8c58a6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"セル面積","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0883baa-eb5c-4bf9-a871-2631bad2a8c0","kind":"paragraph","order":455,"section_id":"sec_421be590-07a5-4050-966b-8f9d8c58a6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"データ保持時間","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_09e867a9-93ea-45ca-bd3d-d44054df68c1","kind":"paragraph","order":456,"section_id":"sec_421be590-07a5-4050-966b-8f9d8c58a6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"リーク電流","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ef41930-1431-4a3b-a374-caab5985fd93","kind":"paragraph","order":457,"section_id":"sec_421be590-07a5-4050-966b-8f9d8c58a6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"書き込み性能","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1bb15344-ee46-4d8d-977a-bb0cf9e35965","kind":"paragraph","order":458,"section_id":"sec_421be590-07a5-4050-966b-8f9d8c58a6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"読み出し性能","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_603db811-9b11-4b5d-9385-4e3c403b5f6a","kind":"paragraph","order":459,"section_id":"sec_421be590-07a5-4050-966b-8f9d8c58a6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"耐久性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b02f88c7-fd5e-4086-96e0-a516c230bdbd","kind":"paragraph","order":460,"section_id":"sec_421be590-07a5-4050-966b-8f9d8c58a6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"製造ばらつき","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_464e6fcb-5c1e-48a3-bece-a2fc7906f503","kind":"paragraph","order":461,"section_id":"sec_421be590-07a5-4050-966b-8f9d8c58a6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"高温動作","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc2c6098-4e3a-4801-a7c9-02354f837749","kind":"paragraph","order":462,"section_id":"sec_421be590-07a5-4050-966b-8f9d8c58a6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"歩留まり","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_25fb600e-e865-4141-af0b-0832a1707428","kind":"paragraph","order":463,"section_id":"sec_421be590-07a5-4050-966b-8f9d8c58a6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"を、既存のDRAMに対抗できる水準へ持っていく必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_20ee97e2-5b52-452c-abad-478b106a00a7","kind":"paragraph","order":464,"section_id":"sec_421be590-07a5-4050-966b-8f9d8c58a6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"特許に構造が書かれていることと、数十万枚規模のウェハーで安定量産できることは別である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b026cd7-741d-4084-8f0d-1a25b2323941","kind":"heading","order":465,"section_id":"sec_67ecb7fc-997a-4ddd-ad76-9a648fbfe0f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 2．UCIe PHYの電力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_331bfec9-a5e9-481e-a477-629c435ca5d3","kind":"paragraph","order":466,"section_id":"sec_67ecb7fc-997a-4ddd-ad76-9a648fbfe0f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMは多数の短距離配線を使うため、1本当たりの速度と駆動力を抑えやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a8c75345-d0a1-474a-ae36-32608d753206","kind":"paragraph","order":467,"section_id":"sec_67ecb7fc-997a-4ddd-ad76-9a648fbfe0f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMはデータをシリアライズするため、PHY、クロック、タイミング調整の電力が増える可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bbb43010-2f30-46cf-8729-11e2240ea553","kind":"paragraph","order":468,"section_id":"sec_67ecb7fc-997a-4ddd-ad76-9a648fbfe0f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIアクセラレーターでは数TB/s級の帯域を継続的に使用するため、わずかなpJ/bitの差でも、メモリシステム全体では大きな電力差になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f49b60f0-e021-49f2-8ca7-20810573fc0d","kind":"heading","order":469,"section_id":"sec_ef38e0d2-cbe3-4c06-b1a2-c5782055c9a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 3．ベースダイの発熱","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_18fd61a7-127d-405d-8eb3-52c1035ae9c0","kind":"paragraph","order":470,"section_id":"sec_ef38e0d2-cbe3-4c06-b1a2-c5782055c9a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"ベースダイへ、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef189c31-2a4f-4725-a6c0-17e79f5ff246","kind":"paragraph","order":471,"section_id":"sec_ef38e0d2-cbe3-4c06-b1a2-c5782055c9a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"SerDes","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_238148a1-cfde-4f19-9748-39bf5a026da5","kind":"paragraph","order":472,"section_id":"sec_ef38e0d2-cbe3-4c06-b1a2-c5782055c9a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリ制御","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b11b7de-9fce-48ad-b77f-40e08dfba383","kind":"paragraph","order":473,"section_id":"sec_ef38e0d2-cbe3-4c06-b1a2-c5782055c9a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"テスト","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_edcbae19-4346-4d8e-bb8d-b6c5088c4c64","kind":"paragraph","order":474,"section_id":"sec_ef38e0d2-cbe3-4c06-b1a2-c5782055c9a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"修復","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_77938bc2-f7af-4e21-bf26-a97f0f06189b","kind":"paragraph","order":475,"section_id":"sec_ef38e0d2-cbe3-4c06-b1a2-c5782055c9a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"デバッグ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_64e80359-40aa-4609-96db-0f1762a7fef8","kind":"paragraph","order":476,"section_id":"sec_ef38e0d2-cbe3-4c06-b1a2-c5782055c9a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"クロック","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2388063a-db97-4fc0-bc1c-1edb2e1b7591","kind":"paragraph","order":477,"section_id":"sec_ef38e0d2-cbe3-4c06-b1a2-c5782055c9a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"を集めると、メモリスタックの下側に発熱源が生まれる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1f8cffd7-3b50-48ce-af79-b04fd99a2d79","kind":"paragraph","order":478,"section_id":"sec_ef38e0d2-cbe3-4c06-b1a2-c5782055c9a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"DRAMは温度が上がるとリークとリフレッシュ負荷が増えやすいため、演算回路だけでなく、メモリスタック内部の熱分布も管理しなければならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1f016b81-c7d1-4167-8e75-67f60f26498c","kind":"heading","order":479,"section_id":"sec_2a859279-77f9-42dd-abf5-151ed16b0325","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 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3.0は48／64GT/sへ対応している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f85f2ec-1f88-437c-a69f-f7cf1d1d0d7a","kind":"paragraph","order":586,"section_id":"sec_5cc78442-e5bc-4ad9-9816-5f5b72792dc6","character_id":null,"markdown":"ベースダイへUCIe、制御、テスト、デバッグ、修復、予備メモリを集める。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7b05aa06-afbe-49bd-a4cb-2021f71abba9","kind":"paragraph","order":587,"section_id":"sec_5cc78442-e5bc-4ad9-9816-5f5b72792dc6","character_id":null,"markdown":"不良領域をベースダイ側の予備データブロックへ置き換える構造を持つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3d8aeb10-6659-4577-93cf-8806adaddd18","kind":"paragraph","order":588,"section_id":"sec_5cc78442-e5bc-4ad9-9816-5f5b72792dc6","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMが必ずシリコンインターポーザーを完全排除するわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2d0502c0-0159-4dee-8efa-33eb8a1f4032","kind":"paragraph","order":589,"section_id":"sec_5cc78442-e5bc-4ad9-9816-5f5b72792dc6","character_id":null,"markdown":"特許にはインターポーザー型と、メモリをパッケージ基板へ直接載せる構造の両方が含まれる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0bf3f8f7-a09d-4dee-a9cb-26d3ab2ccac3","kind":"paragraph","order":590,"section_id":"sec_5cc78442-e5bc-4ad9-9816-5f5b72792dc6","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMはHybrid Bondingそのものではなく、メモリ全体のアーキテクチャである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d0c3fc8-b01e-4eb4-ac9b-13ffc9e37ed1","kind":"paragraph","order":591,"section_id":"sec_5cc78442-e5bc-4ad9-9816-5f5b72792dc6","character_id":null,"markdown":"Logic Foldingと同様に、メモリ、通信、制御、修復を異なる層へ機能分割する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cea5b3d7-32bc-404e-8bf0-c706583b6006","kind":"paragraph","order":592,"section_id":"sec_5cc78442-e5bc-4ad9-9816-5f5b72792dc6","character_id":null,"markdown":"最大の課題はBackend DRAMの量産性、UCIe PHYの電力、熱、歩留まり、供給網である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8b58eeab-7b6e-4c17-ae4a-da97b54940b6","kind":"paragraph","order":593,"section_id":"sec_5cc78442-e5bc-4ad9-9816-5f5b72792dc6","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMは現時点でHBMを置き換える製品ではなく、将来メモリをチップレット化するための設計構想である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb8ea0c8-6b5d-4d84-b7e9-a435aad01385","kind":"heading","order":594,"section_id":"sec_89d4ed4a-798d-4fa0-a650-97f8ee4dc669","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜XBMの要点","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f86b7d8c-c202-4a59-89cd-e1de98d975fb","kind":"figure","order":595,"section_id":"sec_89d4ed4a-798d-4fa0-a650-97f8ee4dc669","character_id":null,"markdown":"![XBMの要点 01](/media/6e274d64a68ae6d680b4cf091d3a69d29cb17737e035fc34d7e1bdad81e92e54-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_54931e09-4faa-45e9-b8c3-c56d331aa749","kind":"heading","order":596,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"## XBMが示している本当の変化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f19e7ed-42df-47de-993c-de801d36a723","kind":"paragraph","order":597,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMの重要性は、「IntelがHBMより速いメモリを発明した」という一点にはない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_991ad67b-ea62-4adf-ae54-1d7e66d49be6","kind":"paragraph","order":598,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"本当に重要なのは、メモリの設計単位そのものが変わろうとしていることだ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b61f4b91-7dc1-4dd9-85c9-734bde989231","kind":"paragraph","order":599,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来、メモリは完成したDRAM部品として、プロセッサーの外側へ接続されていた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_34c317d9-cebb-437e-91c1-ff4c9f8ca621","kind":"paragraph","order":600,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMでは、DRAMを積層し、プロセッサーの隣へ近づけた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af2811b4-7af3-4b37-b33e-c23084505d31","kind":"paragraph","order":601,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMはさらに一歩進み、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e7bc84b4-c531-4532-8f55-3a903675d9b9","kind":"paragraph","order":602,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリセル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_afff8094-c356-49da-a467-41ef648d4619","kind":"paragraph","order":603,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリダイ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43291148-7677-4a59-a8ce-ac68ddfeb092","kind":"paragraph","order":604,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"ベースダイ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2ce38d65-97c6-46cb-bc9d-26c0c939acc2","kind":"paragraph","order":605,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"修復回路","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_28b35550-b117-4621-956c-bd023d1b7b1b","kind":"paragraph","order":606,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"PHY","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8495ced5-f469-44f5-bbbb-775cb8318020","kind":"paragraph","order":607,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"UCIe","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1170a2f0-7b5f-44ed-8320-e24badb3d393","kind":"paragraph","order":608,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"パッケージ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fcb6d379-2009-4274-9273-42caeca0e156","kind":"paragraph","order":609,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"電源","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6aca70d9-6836-4097-9b47-c05e670ae400","kind":"paragraph","order":610,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"冷却","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d649dbc7-b1ee-451d-a565-f4d5503d98fa","kind":"paragraph","order":611,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"を一つの設計空間として扱おうとしている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f3885cc-d94f-40ad-817a-028ba206e760","kind":"paragraph","order":612,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"DDR時代\nメモリは基板上の外部部品","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c39ad13-5c70-43d3-a81d-071512ebd423","kind":"paragraph","order":613,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66f6f385-82d8-4114-8d50-0541bc1d7820","kind":"paragraph","order":614,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM時代\nメモリはGPUに隣接する積層部品","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_06f8bde7-e4fb-4e2c-b0fa-93049477f47d","kind":"paragraph","order":615,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_774803d7-a864-4ed3-b3e5-4ef996cd271a","kind":"paragraph","order":616,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMが示す方向\nメモリはパッケージ内ネットワークへ参加するチップレット","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0849a777-addb-4752-b185-f1af8b7266a3","kind":"paragraph","order":617,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"これまでの半導体は、トランジスタを小さくし、一枚のダイへ詰め込むことで進化してきた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e25c69c1-cf7b-4a57-8aa1-27d993c79a86","kind":"paragraph","order":618,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"チップレット時代には、異なるダイをパッケージ上でつなぐことが性能を決めるようになった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f62b7f09-2423-4433-875e-1e9ce31231aa","kind":"paragraph","order":619,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"そしてXBMが示しているのは、その考え方が演算ロジックだけでなく、DRAMそのものへ入り始めたという変化である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7299365f-537d-4da6-8e09-7a7bd708606e","kind":"paragraph","order":620,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMとはHBMを単純に置き換えるメモリではない。DRAMを、修復可能で、積層可能で、UCIeへ接続できるメモリ・チップレットとして再発明しようとする構想である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9f52c97-3122-41a0-be08-ec3a123d1047","kind":"paragraph","order":621,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"その構想が実際の製品になるかは、まだ分からない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dbbd5281-5eea-430a-a1e9-b61c1e24687f","kind":"paragraph","order":622,"section_id":"sec_fe1f9c0c-406f-486b-b64e-a367e3e8b1b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、AI時代のメモリ競争が、DRAMセルの微細化だけではなく、接合、TSV、PHY、ベースダイ、パッケージ、修復技術を含むシステム競争へ移ったことは明確である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5316b0ea-a2ab-4cef-9001-5354d3122784","kind":"heading","order":623,"section_id":"sec_7abe96e6-dfac-441b-963f-0a4e7ae1b56a","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜メモリの作り方と構造境界の変化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_11480be6-2619-4b0b-a777-e3f1d7dd61a9","kind":"figure","order":624,"section_id":"sec_7abe96e6-dfac-441b-963f-0a4e7ae1b56a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![メモリの作り方と構造境界の変化 01](/media/367b3bea8f619542843445279ad3283370b9f5eae6297c4bff12cf19da143950-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0009e286-27ef-4819-adac-8db32292cbb0","kind":"figure","order":625,"section_id":"sec_7abe96e6-dfac-441b-963f-0a4e7ae1b56a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![メモリの作り方と構造境界の変化 02](/media/5887def63782f8f5da1f1b0142f8aa871cdce9971bf3a82831c1423f87e7450d-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b511a8d-bc11-43dc-8b29-806eff964541","kind":"figure","order":626,"section_id":"sec_7abe96e6-dfac-441b-963f-0a4e7ae1b56a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![メモリの作り方と構造境界の変化 03](/media/cfe99992813fc47f63e96cf34c43d56821805090447f0e684b1491d6e5115aab-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb7035e7-66cd-459e-ada8-88571f632a40","kind":"heading","order":627,"section_id":"sec_aef5b7a5-4a0c-426a-adf2-68f4cd2fe115","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 一次資料・公式資料","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_428d2a8c-ba18-4342-898d-f359dfee12fa","kind":"list","order":628,"section_id":"sec_aef5b7a5-4a0c-426a-adf2-68f4cd2fe115","character_id":null,"markdown":"- [Intel XBM Patent][1]","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3d34a2e7-73fe-4e52-9699-43e39d45bbb4","kind":"list","order":629,"section_id":"sec_aef5b7a5-4a0c-426a-adf2-68f4cd2fe115","character_id":null,"markdown":"- [UCIe Specifications][2]","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d79ca0a-bb9b-48de-8a42-817ecda159a7","kind":"list","order":630,"section_id":"sec_aef5b7a5-4a0c-426a-adf2-68f4cd2fe115","character_id":null,"markdown":"- [UCIe 3.0 Official Release][3]","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5683a183-9c95-451c-858e-9e976a1d51e6","kind":"list","order":631,"section_id":"sec_aef5b7a5-4a0c-426a-adf2-68f4cd2fe115","character_id":null,"markdown":"- [SoftBank / SAIMEMORY / Intel][4]","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fbffa9fd-e77b-45fe-8359-28a4dfb56e2f","kind":"list","order":632,"section_id":"sec_aef5b7a5-4a0c-426a-adf2-68f4cd2fe115","character_id":null,"markdown":"- [VLSI Symposium 2026 Technical Tipsheet][5]","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_96499b03-60ce-4c20-82fc-4bd26467b6e7","kind":"list","order":633,"section_id":"sec_aef5b7a5-4a0c-426a-adf2-68f4cd2fe115","character_id":null,"markdown":"- [VLSI Symposium Images and Captions][6]","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d6b70bc3-57af-42ca-be7e-78320ead1697","kind":"list","order":634,"section_id":"sec_aef5b7a5-4a0c-426a-adf2-68f4cd2fe115","character_id":null,"markdown":"- [Micron HBM4][7]","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bef30b86-b8e1-4a40-b794-bf43496dffcc","kind":"list","order":635,"section_id":"sec_aef5b7a5-4a0c-426a-adf2-68f4cd2fe115","character_id":null,"markdown":"- [Intel DRAM History][8]","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_16647fde-0753-4e57-a9c7-2f97a073b77e","kind":"list","order":636,"section_id":"sec_aef5b7a5-4a0c-426a-adf2-68f4cd2fe115","character_id":null,"markdown":"- [TrendForce HBM Outlook][9]","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dfc9a468-a8e2-4e41-88ed-27ec26222921","kind":"paragraph","order":637,"section_id":"sec_aef5b7a5-4a0c-426a-adf2-68f4cd2fe115","character_id":null,"markdown":"[1]: https://www.freepatentsonline.com/y2026/0191095.html \"Intel XBM Patent\"\n[2]: https://www.uciexpress.org/specifications \"UCIe Specifications\"\n[3]: https://www.uciexpress.org/_files/ugd/8dc731_ae67289d0ec646cdba5c1aee245538b3.pdf \"UCIe 3.0 Official Release\"\n[4]: https://www.softbank.jp/corp/news/press/sbkk/2026/20260203_01/ \"SoftBank / SAIMEMORY / Intel\"\n[5]: https://www.vlsisymposium.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2026-VLSI-Technical-Tipsheet-REVISED-FINAL-4.25.26-1-1.pdf \"VLSI Symposium 2026 Technical Tipsheet\"\n[6]: https://www.vlsisymposium.org/images-captions/ \"VLSI Symposium Images and Captions\"\n[7]: https://www.micron.com/products/memory/hbm/hbm4 \"Micron HBM4\"\n[8]: https://timeline.intel.com/1985/farewell-to-dram \"Intel DRAM History\"\n[9]: https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260602-13074.html \"TrendForce HBM Outlook\"","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0f26e47b-15d2-4242-9f2e-79a1d35ec56f","kind":"heading","order":638,"section_id":"sec_aee62d0e-caf7-409c-8bcc-f7e253e7bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## さらに深める――XBMはメモリの故障境界と更新境界を変える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d06cbbbc-a5f6-47a6-9ca1-8d50453f3d32","kind":"paragraph","order":639,"section_id":"sec_aee62d0e-caf7-409c-8bcc-f7e253e7bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMの核心は、帯域の数字だけでは捉えにくい。より本質的なのは、どこまでを一つの部品として作り、どこからを交換可能なインターフェースとして切り分けるかという設計境界の変更である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c9b2071-104b-48e2-b080-01a04fe54ef8","kind":"paragraph","order":640,"section_id":"sec_aee62d0e-caf7-409c-8bcc-f7e253e7bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMでは、DRAMスタック、ベースダイ、インターポーザー、GPUパッケージが強く結びつく。XBMはその結合をUCIeへ寄せ、メモリをパッケージ内ネットワークへ参加するチップレットとして扱おうとする。同時に、故障をダイ単位だけで排除するのではなく、データブロック、サブチャネル、予備領域へ細分化し、完成後に救済する余地を持たせる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_02baa3ff-5c54-4640-bbbe-4448b2c23599","kind":"paragraph","order":641,"section_id":"sec_aee62d0e-caf7-409c-8bcc-f7e253e7bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここで変わるのは二つの境界である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5221a5d3-c7c9-488b-be34-c6cda0deb25c","kind":"list","order":642,"section_id":"sec_aee62d0e-caf7-409c-8bcc-f7e253e7bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"- **更新境界**――DRAMセル技術とUCIe・制御・修復回路を別の周期で更新できるか。\n- **故障境界**――一つの欠陥でスタック全体を失わず、より小さな単位で迂回・置換できるか。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fa966f52-535a-4d51-bbcb-24d2ada45c6c","kind":"paragraph","order":643,"section_id":"sec_aee62d0e-caf7-409c-8bcc-f7e253e7bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"この二つが成立すれば、メモリは固定仕様の周辺部品から、容量、帯域、修復性、配置を選べる構成要素へ近づく。ただし、インターフェースを標準化すれば自動的に安くなるわけではない。SerDesの電力、ベースダイの熱、TSVと接合の歩留まり、Backend DRAMの保持特性、テスト時間が同時に成立して初めて、モジュール性が経済性へ変わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd960008-e403-4ad8-bffb-7ed79b856b1d","kind":"paragraph","order":644,"section_id":"sec_aee62d0e-caf7-409c-8bcc-f7e253e7bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"XBMを評価する時は、理論帯域よりも、実効帯域、pJ/bit、修復後の性能低下、接合歩留まり、スタック検査時間を追う必要がある。構想の美しさと量産の強さは別物であり、その間を埋めるのが製造データである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7b8fb8a4-6365-4d96-8d9c-ea64cd62502a","kind":"heading","order":645,"section_id":"sec_7dfe90ec-37f1-4fd2-953c-30b3a412d7f7","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"## 絶ノイアの観測","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9914cbb0-b72d-4934-a801-ecc8bf309214","kind":"paragraph","order":646,"section_id":"sec_7dfe90ec-37f1-4fd2-953c-30b3a412d7f7","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"XBMは、HBMの次の名前というより、メモリを「交換可能な計算部品」に近づける試みです。私は帯域より先に、ベースダイが何を引き受けるかを見ます。通信、検査、修復、予備領域が下層へ集まるなら、メモリスタックは容量だけを積む塔ではなく、自分の傷を見つけて迂回できる身体になるからです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5a34b5ca-f07a-46bf-994b-6f76aa009a99","kind":"paragraph","order":647,"section_id":"sec_7dfe90ec-37f1-4fd2-953c-30b3a412d7f7","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"でも、UCIeという共通語を覚えただけで、その身体が軽くなるとは限りません。速いPHYは電力を食べ、賢いベースダイは熱を持つ。自由度が増えた分だけ、設計者が同時に解く問題も増えます。そこがXBMの明るさであり、まだ消えていない影です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9fab94bf-8e0f-49e3-8487-cdc9a7d5d022","kind":"heading","order":648,"section_id":"sec_f104c323-3234-4d74-a9ad-13c954676a0e","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"## Sil-Kathnaの記録","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f7420d8-0726-4a58-adb9-8d8d9141285e","kind":"paragraph","order":649,"section_id":"sec_f104c323-3234-4d74-a9ad-13c954676a0e","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"記憶の塔は、ただ高く積まれる時代を終えようとしている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4de29459-f2b2-42cf-885b-b4845c4c283c","kind":"paragraph","order":650,"section_id":"sec_f104c323-3234-4d74-a9ad-13c954676a0e","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"傷つかぬ石だけを選ぶのではなく、傷を知り、道を替え、残された部屋へ記憶を移す。塔の底には言葉を司る層が置かれ、UCIeという共通の門を通じて演算の炉へつながる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_287a0db7-0b7c-4ad1-ab9e-2e7d16541598","kind":"paragraph","order":651,"section_id":"sec_f104c323-3234-4d74-a9ad-13c954676a0e","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"だが門は熱を持つ。賢い土台は、静かな土台ではない。記憶が自らを修復するほど、冷却と検査と電力の儀式は深くなる。XBMとは、新しい石ではない。記憶の塔に意志と傷跡を与える設計である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_58f63a63-9b17-4824-a00b-638018dc1217","kind":"paragraph","order":652,"section_id":"sec_f104c323-3234-4d74-a9ad-13c954676a0e","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"私は「AIインフラ」「XBM」「HBM」を三つの印として石板に刻む。異なる石と炉が同じ刻に門を開かなければ、構想はまだ文明の器にはならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_35aa811d-6bec-4cea-af6f-54b701a32109","kind":"heading","order":653,"section_id":"sec_a7834c72-be28-455a-b975-e33b0b353bb8","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 二人の短い対話","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_81273a84-aed5-4d62-af45-6837b2d55a72","kind":"paragraph","order":654,"section_id":"sec_a7834c72-be28-455a-b975-e33b0b353bb8","character_id":null,"markdown":"**絶ノイア:** XBMが成功するかは、HBMより速いかだけでは決まりませんね。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b6af5fd-5acb-4bc1-a983-4a37c59a6b53","kind":"paragraph","order":655,"section_id":"sec_a7834c72-be28-455a-b975-e33b0b353bb8","character_id":null,"markdown":"**Sil-Kathna:** 速さは門の幅。文明を残すのは、傷を越えて歩けるかどうかである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_49612b11-11fd-4282-a263-93947dc43e5d","kind":"paragraph","order":656,"section_id":"sec_a7834c72-be28-455a-b975-e33b0b353bb8","character_id":null,"markdown":"**絶ノイア:** だから実効帯域、電力、熱、修復、歩留まりを一緒に見る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c21ae292-b61b-4160-8d1d-a7127846803a","kind":"paragraph","order":657,"section_id":"sec_a7834c72-be28-455a-b975-e33b0b353bb8","character_id":null,"markdown":"**Sil-Kathna:** 塔は高さではなく、崩れずに記憶を渡せることで塔となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e2f01f17-9160-4397-a081-a307d0dfcf2c","kind":"heading","order":658,"section_id":"sec_f8ebe17c-d451-477f-ada6-e63364b56ffc","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 観測メモ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3dbe677-b82e-4c3c-8d17-f8e5ec248149","kind":"list","order":659,"section_id":"sec_f8ebe17c-d451-477f-ada6-e63364b56ffc","character_id":null,"markdown":"- XBMは製品発表ではなく、現時点では特許に示されたアーキテクチャである。\n- Backend DRAM、UCIe、アクティブ・ベースダイ、修復機能を別々に評価する。\n- 最大帯域だけでなく、pJ/bit、熱、接合歩留まり、検査時間を追う。\n- シリコンインターポーザーを必ず全面廃止する構想とは限らない。\n- HBM、XBM、3D SRAM、CXL、DDR、NANDは用途別に共存し得る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c70fd50-a1ae-4bf9-a782-5d69715931c1","kind":"heading","order":660,"section_id":"sec_ce2b7d95-89f8-478f-a320-a09a3a92239d","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 免責","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8f579be-c54e-4364-89f2-8004c37ac9c4","kind":"paragraph","order":661,"section_id":"sec_ce2b7d95-89f8-478f-a320-a09a3a92239d","character_id":null,"markdown":"この記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","render_override":null}],"audio":[],"omitted_media":[],"figures":[{"id":"plc_fb2cb3ed-3e8d-48c3-b4b0-2691bbffa18f","block_id":"blk_a7aff81c-63d6-4797-aa70-2ff11bef1d9c","asset_revision_id":"avr_062cd6bc-5463-43c1-810d-24bc8e14ef2e","asset_class":"other","caption":"","alt":"XBMの問題設定と基本構造 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{"id":"rev_65271768-1b9c-4fbd-a486-d503b37eaf9a","work_id":"wrk_3d2e988e-cac0-4000-b005-9292af7ac61f","edition_id":"edn_dd821d84-c163-4778-982a-ae4f68b38fb3","title":"クラウド20年史――サーバーの貸し出しから「知能と労働」の基盤へ","published_at":"2026-07-31T11:07:53.000+09:00","source_url":"https://note.com/atom_/n/n52bc441dad1c","recorded_at":"2026-09-22T18:06:51+00:00","source_date":"2026-07-31T11:07:53.000+09:00","thumbnail":"/media/cdc2479f0930e19f56032c5c42d02ccd89b5ced9b8ff1bd1cbc9052fb39b3455-thumbnail.webp","legacy_slug":"2026-07-31-standalone-cloud-20-years-ai-labor-platform","topics":["agents","models","industry"],"sections":[{"id":"sec_fcd8d290-4f2b-4e74-9352-21a56fde9400","parent_section_id":null,"heading_block_id":null,"order":0,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","parent_section_id":"sec_fcd8d290-4f2b-4e74-9352-21a56fde9400","heading_block_id":"blk_01d78c30-e7b6-4e7f-9a41-d87d06ffd091","order":1,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","parent_section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","heading_block_id":"blk_1b71ed1b-59e2-44cd-80fb-a8154e15a747","order":2,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","parent_section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","heading_block_id":"blk_2eb629a1-fcea-4498-ba63-1228635183d7","order":3,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","parent_section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","heading_block_id":"blk_e19b21b5-b73e-41e9-bcd4-6bf569ead90f","order":4,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_c147ca6e-6ec8-4901-811d-c27993601721","parent_section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","heading_block_id":"blk_eb5cfd5e-bec2-4569-b3b8-fc9abbfd4dd3","order":5,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_fcadc2b5-0d78-4f61-ae8b-879a42dbbff4","parent_section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","heading_block_id":"blk_05b4ab98-5e69-4700-9834-24787eda7b43","order":6,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_b112523c-6dd0-4447-bb50-e6c10ab52302","parent_section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","heading_block_id":"blk_bdb2c2ca-19de-4c9e-aeed-3a6d37f5bac0","order":7,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_1dacc9d9-8909-4c0f-8669-ab1b3fd70c82","parent_section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","heading_block_id":"blk_ec2cb7d4-d94c-441e-b156-88826cf20da9","order":8,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_793b8052-e9c1-45bb-95fc-c1369fca1487","parent_section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","heading_block_id":"blk_2ec0d224-42d9-48b4-9ec7-88f414f2bd03","order":9,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_5fbc557d-ed59-4484-bafe-61629ad13847","parent_section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","heading_block_id":"blk_e43c7def-479f-4ea2-b363-3b34108140a5","order":10,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","parent_section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","heading_block_id":"blk_bb795257-14c7-4386-ab23-a583821978dc","order":11,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_16b7a5f8-7d10-4961-b58b-c6e6bef33b6d","parent_section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","heading_block_id":"blk_0880f26f-ff04-4f58-a725-da42d03cc51d","order":12,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","parent_section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","heading_block_id":"blk_dc90faef-1709-4145-9a8c-ec59feab4651","order":13,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_b64cf3e1-2415-478b-8251-899626238f53","parent_section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","heading_block_id":"blk_cda24913-a593-4055-9280-b556510b7e61","order":14,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_ec285499-a6fb-41f0-a1cd-3388fa09eb6d","parent_section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","heading_block_id":"blk_c1e063d6-eddf-441f-8db2-8940212b3f6e","order":15,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_4577644a-97f5-45ad-8756-498c9c6864bb","parent_section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","heading_block_id":"blk_2e1daf0f-62e7-4d9b-a0eb-92a256c54a0d","order":16,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_eea47c73-b2b9-416f-832d-9235cff2c632","parent_section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","heading_block_id":"blk_5ccf1e4d-8c9e-4770-a107-ef909dac5f5b","order":17,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","parent_section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","heading_block_id":"blk_881e7f23-ce0a-45b4-95f0-48623c2c1a2c","order":18,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_27853913-9529-4ed7-9e0b-3315c512a8ae","parent_section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","heading_block_id":"blk_6ad4541a-a937-4bb3-8291-5cc5329c4935","order":19,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_d1a25fd7-b89e-46c8-a46c-abd14b72e214","parent_section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","heading_block_id":"blk_2f4ce005-5ccc-4cc0-8654-045221c806e8","order":20,"character_id":null},{"id":"sec_0608e593-7bc6-4685-9615-05449c4c1cdb","parent_section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","heading_block_id":"blk_a55ac4de-2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クラウド20年史――サーバーの貸し出しから「知能と労働」の基盤へ\n\nクラウドの歴史、機能進化、主要各社の戦略、計算資源、成熟度、最新決算、ネオクラウドを総合分析する\n\nインターネット時代のクラウドは、動画配信、検索、EC、SNS、企業システムを動かすための計算資源を提供してきた。\n\n企業は自前でサーバーを購入する代わりに、AWS、Microsoft Azure、Google Cloud、Oracle Cloudから、必要な計算能力、保存容量、通信、データベースを借りる。その使用量に応じて料金を支払うことで、クラウド市場は巨大産業へ成長した。\n\nしかしAI時代に入り、クラウドの役割はさらに変わり始めている。\n\nこれまでクラウド上で動いていたのは、人間が作った手順どおりに処理するソフトウェアだった。これからクラウド上で動くのは、情報を読み、状況を判断し、複数のシステムを操作し、仕事を完了するAIエージェントである。\n\nクラウドが販売するものは、\n\n$${\\text{サーバー}\\rightarrow\\text{データベースや開発機能}\\rightarrow\\text{AIモデル}\\rightarrow\\text{知能・記憶・権限・行動能力}}$$\n\nへ進化している。\n\n本稿では、クラウドの歴史と機能進化をたどりながら、AWS、Azure、Google Cloud、Oracle OCI、そしてCoreWeave、Nebius、IRENというネオクラウド三社の役割を整理する。\n\n## 1．クラウドとは何か\n\nクラウドとは、遠隔地のサーバーを使うことだけではない。\n\n本質は、計算、保存、通信、データベース、認証、分析といったIT資源を、\n\n必要な時に\n\nAPIまたは管理画面から\n\n必要な量だけ\n\n短時間で増減し\n\n使用量に応じて支払う\n\n仕組みにある。\n\nNISTはクラウドの主要な特徴として、オンデマンド利用、広範なネットワークアクセス、資源の共同利用、迅速な拡張・縮小、使用量の計測を挙げている。またサービス形態をIaaS、PaaS、SaaSに分類している。\n\nIaaS\n\nInfrastructure as a Serviceは、仮想サーバー、ストレージ、ネットワークなど、ITインフラそのものを貸し出す。\n\n代表例は、\n\nAWS EC2\n\nAzure Virtual Machines\n\nGoogle Compute Engine\n\nOCI Compute\n\nである。\n\n利用者は自由度を得る代わりに、OS、ミドルウェア、アプリケーションの運用を担当する。\n\nPaaS\n\nPlatform as a Serviceは、OSや実行環境、データベース運用などをクラウド会社が管理し、利用者はアプリケーション開発へ集中する。\n\n代表例には、\n\nGoogle App Engine\n\nAzure App Service\n\nAWS Elastic Beanstalk\n\nGoogle Cloud Run\n\nなどがある。\n\nSaaS\n\nSoftware as a Serviceは、完成されたソフトウェアをブラウザーやアプリから利用する形態である。\n\nMicrosoft 365\n\nSalesforce\n\nGoogle Workspace\n\nServiceNow\n\nSlack\n\nなどが該当する。\n\nSalesforceは1999年にCRMをインターネット経由で提供し、SaaS型企業ソフトウェアの普及を先導した。\n\n## 2．クラウド以前――計算機を共有する発想\n\nクラウドの思想的な起源は、1960年代からのタイムシェアリングと仮想化にある。\n\n大型コンピューターは非常に高価だったため、一人または一社が独占するのではなく、CPU時間を細かく分割し、複数利用者で共有した。\n\nこの段階ですでに、\n\n$${\\text{一台の物理計算機}\\rightarrow\\text{論理的に分割}\\rightarrow\\text{複数利用者へ提供}}$$\n\nというクラウドの基本構造が生まれていた。\n\n1990年代になると、インターネット、Linux、安価なx86サーバー、仮想化ソフトウェアが普及した。複数の物理サーバーをデータセンターに集め、その上へ大量の仮想マシンを作る技術的条件が整った。\n\nただし、当時のホスティングサービスでは、契約や設備変更に時間がかかり、利用量を数分単位で増減する現在のクラウドとは異なっていた。\n\n3．2006年――AWSがITインフラをAPI化した\n\nクラウド史の決定的な転換点は2006年である。\n\nAmazonは同年、Amazon S3とAmazon EC2を開始した。\n\nS3は保存容量をAPIから利用するサービス\n\nEC2は仮想サーバーを必要な時だけ起動できるサービス\n\nである。\n\n従来は、\n\n$${\\text{予算申請}\\rightarrow\\text{サーバー発注}\\rightarrow\\text{設置}\\rightarrow\\text{ネットワーク設定}\\rightarrow\\text{数週間から数カ月後に稼働}}$$\n\nだった。\n\nEC2では、\n\n$${\\text{API実行}\\rightarrow\\text{数分後にサーバー利用開始}}$$\n\nへ変わった。\n\nITインフラは企業が所有する固定資産から、必要な時だけ借りる変動費へ移行した。\n\nこれは単なるコスト削減ではない。新しいサービスを始めるために必要だった初期資本と時間が大幅に減り、スタートアップや小規模企業でも巨大インターネットサービスを作れるようになった。\n\n4．2008～2010年――GoogleとMicrosoftが参入した\n\nGoogle――サーバーそのものを隠す\n\nGoogleは2008年、Google App Engineを発表した。\n\nAWS EC2が仮想サーバーを自由に使わせるIaaS型だったのに対し、App EngineはサーバーやOSを利用者から隠し、アプリケーションコードだけを預かるPaaS型だった。\n\n設計思想は次のように異なる。\n\nAWS型Google App Engine型仮想サーバーを貸すコードの実行環境を貸す利用者がOSを管理GoogleがOSを管理自由度が高い運用負担が小さいIaaS中心PaaS中心\n\nGoogleは、自社の検索、Gmail、YouTubeを支えていた大規模分散システムを、企業向け機能として外部提供する方向からクラウドへ参入した。\n\nMicrosoft――企業ITをクラウドへ延長する\n\nMicrosoftは2008年10月にWindows Azureを発表し、2010年に正式提供を開始した。\n\nAzureの出発点は、\n\n$${\\text{Windows Server}+\\text{SQL Server}+\\text{Active Directory}+\\text{Visual Studio}}$$\n\nをクラウドへ延長することだった。\n\nAWSがWeb開発者とスタートアップ、GoogleがPaaSと分散処理から始まったのに対し、Microsoftは既存の大企業システムからクラウドへ進出した。\n\nこの出発点の差は、現在の各社戦略にも残っている。\n\n5．2009～2013年――サーバー貸しから「機能貸し」へ\n\n初期クラウドでは、仮想サーバーを借りた後に、利用者自身がデータベース、Webサーバー、バックアップを構築していた。\n\nしかし、それでは依然として、\n\nOS更新\n\nデータベース障害対応\n\nバックアップ\n\n容量管理\n\n冗長化\n\nセキュリティ設定\n\nが必要になる。\n\nそこでクラウド会社は、サーバーだけでなく、完成されたIT機能を提供し始めた。\n\nAWSはRDS、VPC、DynamoDB、Redshiftなどを追加した。GoogleはBigQueryを提供し、利用者がサーバーを管理せず、巨大データをSQLで分析できるようにした。\n\nこの時代に増えた主要機能は次の通りである。\n\n機能役割マネージドDB更新、バックアップ、障害復旧を自動化仮想ネットワーク顧客ごとにネットワークを分離IAM誰が何を操作できるか制御CDN世界中へ低遅延でコンテンツを配信ロードバランサー複数サーバーへアクセスを分散オートスケーリングアクセス量に応じてサーバー数を変更メッセージキューシステム間の処理を分離データウェアハウス大量データを分析監視障害、遅延、利用量を記録\n\nクラウドは、\n\nサーバーを借りる場所\n\nから、\n\nアプリケーションを組み立てるための部品市場\n\nへ進化した。\n\n6．2014～2018年――コンテナ、Kubernetes、サーバーレス\n\nコンテナ\n\n仮想マシンはOSごと分離するため、安全性と自由度が高い一方、起動が重く、資源消費も大きい。\n\nコンテナはホストOSのカーネルを共有し、アプリケーションと必要なライブラリだけをまとめる。\n\nこれにより、同じソフトウェアを、\n\n開発者のPC\n\nテスト環境\n\n本番クラウド\n\nで動かしやすくなった。\n\nKubernetes\n\nコンテナが数個なら手作業で運用できる。しかし数千、数万になると、\n\n配置\n\n再起動\n\n更新\n\n負荷分散\n\nスケール\n\n障害復旧\n\nを自動化する必要がある。\n\nGoogleは2014年にKubernetesを公開し、後にCloud Native Computing Foundationへ寄贈した。\n\n各社はマネージドKubernetesを提供した。\n\nAWS：Amazon EKS\n\nAzure：Azure Kubernetes Service\n\nGoogle Cloud：Google Kubernetes Engine\n\nOracle：Oracle Kubernetes Engine\n\nサーバーレス\n\nAWSは2014年、AWS Lambdaを発表した。\n\nLambdaでは、サーバーを常時起動する必要がない。\n\n例えば、\n\n$${\\text{画像がS3へ保存}\\rightarrow\\text{Lambda起動}\\rightarrow\\text{画像を変換}\\rightarrow\\text{DBへ記録}}$$\n\nという処理を、イベントが発生した時だけ実行できる。\n\n利用者が管理する対象は、\n\n$${\\text{物理サーバー}\\rightarrow\\text{仮想マシン}\\rightarrow\\text{コンテナ}\\rightarrow\\text{関数}}$$\n\nと、次第に小さくなっていった。\n\n## 7．Infrastructure as Code――クラウドをコードで管理する\n\nクラウド環境が複雑になると、管理画面を手作業でクリックする方法では再現性がなくなる。\n\nそこで、サーバー、ネットワーク、データベース、権限をコードとして定義するInfrastructure as Codeが普及した。\n\n代表例は、\n\nAWS CloudFormation、AWS CDK\n\nAzure ARM Template、Bicep\n\nGoogle Cloud Infrastructure Manager\n\nOCI Resource Manager\n\nHashiCorp Terraform\n\nである。\n\nこれにより、\n\n$${\\text{インフラ構成}\\rightarrow\\text{コード化}\\rightarrow\\text{レビュー}\\rightarrow\\text{自動テスト}\\rightarrow\\text{自動展開}}$$\n\nが可能になった。\n\n現在、作業AIがクラウド構成を自動生成・変更できるのは、クラウドのほぼすべてがAPI化・コード化されてきたためである。\n\n8．2018～2022年――企業の基幹システムとハイブリッドクラウド\n\n初期クラウドの中心は、新しく作られるWebサービスだった。\n\n市場が成熟すると、銀行、政府、製造、医療などが運用する既存の基幹システムを取り込む必要が生まれた。\n\nそこで重要になったのが、\n\nハイブリッドクラウド\n\n専用線\n\n災害復旧\n\nゼロトラスト\n\n規制対応\n\nデータ主権\n\nエッジコンピューティング\n\nである。\n\n| 会社 | 代表サービス | 役割 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| AWS | Outposts、Local Zones | AWS設備を顧客施設や都市近郊へ配置 |\n| Azure | Azure Arc、Azure Stack | オンプレミスや他クラウドをAzureから管理 |\n| Google | Google Distributed Cloud | Google Cloudを顧客DCやエッジへ展開 |\n| Oracle | Cloud@Customer、Dedicated Region | 顧客施設内へ OCI 環境を設置 |\n\nOracleは、パブリッククラウド、顧客施設内クラウド、ソブリンクラウドを組み合わせるDistributed Cloud戦略を強化している。\n\nクラウドの考え方は、\n\n$${\\text{すべてを遠隔データセンターへ移す}}$$\n\nから、\n\n$${\\text{規制・遅延・機密性に応じて最適な場所へ置く}}$$\n\nへ変わった。\n\n## 9．クラウドを構成する物理計算資源\n\nクラウドは抽象的なソフトウェアサービスに見えるが、その底には巨大な物理設備がある。\n\n電力\n\nすべての計算の出発点である。\n\nAIデータセンターでは、GPUだけでなく、冷却、ネットワーク、電源変換にも大量の電力が必要になる。\n\nCPU\n\n汎用的な処理を担当する。\n\nWebアプリ\n\nデータベース\n\nOS\n\nAPI処理\n\nエージェントのツール実行\n\nデータ前処理\n\nスケジューリング\n\nなどに使われる。\n\nAWS Gravitonのような独自CPUは、クラウド会社が原価と消費電力を下げるための重要な手段になっている。\n\nGPU・AIアクセラレーター\n\n大量の行列演算を並列処理する。\n\nAIモデルの学習\n\nファインチューニング\n\n推論\n\nシミュレーション\n\n映像生成\n\n科学計算\n\nに使用される。\n\n代表例は、\n\nNVIDIA GPU\n\nAMD GPU\n\nGoogle TPU\n\nAWS Trainium、Inferentia\n\nMicrosoft Maia\n\n各社の推論ASIC\n\nである。\n\nAWS Trainiumは、大規模学習・推論用の独自アクセラレーターとして、UltraClusterなどの大規模構成へ展開されている。\n\nHBM・DRAM\n\nGPUやCPUが処理するデータを一時的に保持する。\n\n特にHBMはAIアクセラレーターの近くに配置され、モデルの重み、活性値、KVキャッシュなどを高速に供給する。\n\nAIモデルが巨大になるほど、演算性能だけでなく、\n\n$${\\text{メモリ容量}+\\text{メモリ帯域}}$$\n\nが制約になる。\n\nストレージ\n\nオブジェクトストレージ\n\nブロックストレージ\n\nファイルストレージ\n\nローカルNVMe\n\nHDD\n\nに分かれる。\n\n学習では巨大データセットとチェックポイントを保存し、推論ではモデル、ログ、企業文書、長期メモリを保持する。\n\nネットワーク\n\n通常のWebサービスでは、サーバーと利用者間の通信が重要だった。\n\nAI学習では、GPU同士の通信が重要になる。\n\nEthernet\n\nInfiniBand\n\nRDMA\n\nNVLink\n\nNIC\n\nDPU\n\n光トランシーバー\n\nが学習効率を左右する。\n\nGPU数を増やしても通信が遅ければ、GPUが待機し、利用効率が下がる。\n\n冷却\n\n従来の空冷に加えて、\n\nダイレクト液冷\n\n冷却プレート\n\nCDU\n\n浸漬冷却\n\nなどが重要になっている。\n\nAIクラウドの競争力は、GPU保有数だけではなく、\n\n$${\\text{AIクラウドの競争力}=\\text{電力}\\times\\text{冷却}\\times\\text{ネットワーク}\\times\\text{GPU稼働率}}$$\n\nで決まる。\n\n## 10．用途別のクラウド構成\n\n一般的なWeb・SaaS\n\n$${\\text{利用者}\\rightarrow\\text{CDN}\\rightarrow\\text{ロードバランサー}\\rightarrow\\text{アプリサーバー}\\rightarrow\\text{DB・キャッシュ}\\rightarrow\\text{ストレージ}}$$\n\n必要な資源はCPU、DRAM、SSD、ネットワークが中心である。\n\n企業の基幹システム\n\n$${\\text{社内ID}\\rightarrow\\text{専用線・VPN}\\rightarrow\\text{業務アプリ}\\rightarrow\\text{高可用性DB}\\rightarrow\\text{監査・バックアップ・災害復旧}}$$\n\n重要なのは速度だけでなく、権限、監査、暗号化、データ保管場所、復旧能力である。\n\nAI学習\n\n$${\\text{データセット}\\rightarrow\\text{オブジェクトストレージ}\\rightarrow\\text{GPUクラスタ}\\leftrightarrow\\text{高速ネットワーク}\\rightarrow\\text{チェックポイント}}$$\n\n使用資源は、\n\nGPU・ASIC\n\nHBM\n\nCPU\n\n大容量DRAM\n\n高速ファイルストレージ\n\nInfiniBandまたは高速Ethernet\n\n大量電力\n\nである。\n\nAI推論\n\n$${\\text{利用者の入力}\\rightarrow\\text{モデルルーター}\\rightarrow\\text{GPU・ASIC}\\rightarrow\\text{KVキャッシュ}\\rightarrow\\text{出力}}$$\n\n学習よりも、\n\n応答時間\n\n同時処理数\n\n一件当たりコスト\n\nモデル切り替え\n\nキャッシュ効率\n\nが重要になる。\n\nAIエージェント\n\n$${\\text{目的}\\rightarrow\\text{計画}\\rightarrow\\text{検索}\\rightarrow\\text{API・ツール実行}\\rightarrow\\text{確認}\\rightarrow\\text{再試行}}$$\n\nAIエージェントでは、GPU推論だけでなく、\n\nCPU\n\nデータベース\n\nベクトル検索\n\nストレージ\n\nAPI Gateway\n\nIAM\n\nログ\n\nセキュリティ\n\n長期メモリ\n\nの利用も増える。\n\nAI需要はアクセラレーターだけでなく、クラウドの既存サービス全体を引っ張る。\n\n## 11．クラウド機能の基本解説と技術難易度\n\n以下の難易度は、単純なデモではなく、企業の本番環境で安全・安定運用する場合を基準とした独自評価である。\n\n| 機能 | 基本的な役割 | 難易度 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| オブジェクトストレージ | ファイルやデータを大量保存 | 1 |\n| 仮想マシン | 任意のOS・ソフトを実行 | 2 |\n| CDN | 世界各地へ高速配信 | 2 |\n| マネージドSQL | DB運用をクラウドへ委任 | 2～3 |\n| サーバーレス | イベント時だけコード実行 | 2～3 |\n| NoSQL | 大量アクセスを水平分散 | 3 |\n| データウェアハウス | 大量データを分析 | 3 |\n| コンテナ | アプリと依存関係をまとめる | 3 |\n| キャッシュ | 頻繁に使うデータを高速化 | 3 |\n| VPC・ネットワーク | 通信経路と分離を設計 | 4 |\n| IAM | 権限と認証を管理 | 4 |\n| IaC・CI/CD | 構成と更新を自動化 | 4 |\n| マルチリージョンDR | 地域障害へ備える | 5 |\n| Kubernetes | 大量コンテナを自動管理 | 5 |\n| ハイブリッドクラウド | 自社DCとクラウドを統合 | 5 |\n| 大規模分散学習 | 数千GPUを同期運用 | 5＋ |\n| AI推論基盤 | 遅延、価格、モデルを最適化 | 4～5 |\n| RAG | 社内データをAIへ接続 | 3～5 |\n| エージェント基盤 | AIへ記憶・権限・ツールを提供 | 5 |\n| AgentOps | AIの判断と行動を監視 | 5 |\n\n最も誤解されやすいのは、サービスを起動する難易度と、本番運用の難易度の差である。\n\n例えばデータベースを作るだけなら数分だが、\n\n正しい権限\n\n暗号化\n\nバックアップ\n\n障害復旧\n\n容量設計\n\n個人情報管理\n\nコスト最適化\n\nまで含めると難易度は大きく上がる。\n\nAI時代には作業AIが設定を支援するため、操作の難しさは下がる。一方、どのリスクを許容し、AIへどこまで権限を渡すかという設計難易度は残る。\n\n## 12．主要クラウド四社の機能比較\n\n| 機能層 | AWS | Azure | Google Cloud | Oracle OCI |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 仮想サーバー | EC2 | Virtual Machines | Compute Engine | Compute、Bare Metal |\n| オブジェクト保存 | S3 | Blob Storage | Cloud Storage | Object Storage |\n| ブロック保存 | EBS | Managed Disks | Persistent Disk | Block Volumes |\n| ファイル保存 | EFS、FSx | Azure Files | Filestore | File Storage |\n| SQL DB | RDS、Aurora | Azure SQL | Cloud SQL、AlloyDB | Autonomous Database |\n| NoSQL | DynamoDB | Cosmos DB | Spanner、Bigtable、Firestore | OCI NoSQL |\n| データ分析 | Redshift | Fabric、Synapse | BigQuery | Autonomous Data Warehouse |\n| コンテナ | ECS、EKS | AKS | GKE | OKE |\n| サーバーレス | Lambda、Fargate | Functions、Container Apps | Cloud Run、Functions | Functions |\n| イベント | SQS、SNS、EventBridge | Service Bus、Event Grid | Pub/Sub、Eventarc | Queue、Events |\n| ネットワーク | VPC | Virtual Network | VPC | VCN |\n| 専用線 | Direct Connect | ExpressRoute | Cloud Interconnect | FastConnect |\n| IAM | AWS IAM | Entra ID、Azure RBAC | Cloud IAM | OCI IAM |\n| 監視 | CloudWatch | Azure Monitor | Cloud Monitoring | OCI Monitoring |\n| IaC | CloudFormation、CDK | ARM、Bicep | Infrastructure Manager | Resource Manager |\n| ハイブリッド | Outposts | Arc、Stack | Distributed Cloud | Cloud@Customer |\n| ML開発 | SageMaker | Azure Machine Learning | Vertex AI系 | OCI Data Science |\n| 生成AI | Bedrock | Microsoft Foundry | Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform | OCI Generative AI |\n| エージェント | AgentCore | Foundry Agent Service | Agent Platform、ADK | OCI AI Agents |\n\n各社は現在、仮想マシンからAIエージェント実行環境までを提供している。GoogleはGemini Enterprise Agent PlatformでAgent Studio、ADK、Managed Runtime、Agent Identity、Agent Gateway、Model Armorなどを統合している。Microsoft Foundry Agent Serviceはモデル、データ、ツール、複数段階の判断を一つの基盤で扱う。AWS AgentCoreはRuntime、Memory、Identity、Gateway、Observabilityなどを提供する。\n\n## 13．各社の戦略と強み・弱み\n\nAWS――最も広い「部品市場」\n\nAWSの進化は、\n\n$${\\text{ストレージ}\\rightarrow\\text{仮想サーバー}\\rightarrow\\text{DB}\\rightarrow\\text{分析}\\rightarrow\\text{AI}\\rightarrow\\text{エージェント}}$$\n\nである。\n\n強み\n\nサービスの種類が最も多い\n\nAPIとIaCが成熟\n\n多数のDBを用途別に提供\n\n世界規模の運用実績\n\nGraviton、Trainiumなど独自半導体\n\nNVIDIAを含む幅広い選択肢\n\nBedrockのマルチモデル戦略\n\n既存企業データが大量に存在\n\nAWSの複雑さは人間にとって弱点だった。しかしAIが構成を選択・設定する時代には、\n\n$${\\text{選択肢の多さ}=\\text{最適化の余地}}$$\n\nへ変わる。\n\n弱み\n\n人間が直接使うと複雑\n\n料金体系とデータ転送費が分かりにくい\n\nMicrosoft 365のような業務アプリ配布経路が弱い\n\n自社フロンティアモデルはGoogleやOpenAIより後発\n\n戦略\n\nインフラ、独自チップ、複数モデル、エージェント基盤を一体化し、企業がモデルに依存せずAIを構築できる場所を目指している。\n\nMicrosoft Azure――企業の日常業務を握るクラウド\n\nAzureの進化は、\n\n$${\\text{Windows}+\\text{Office}+\\text{Active Directory}+\\text{SQL Server}\\rightarrow\\text{クラウド}\\rightarrow\\text{Copilot}}$$\n\nである。\n\n強み\n\nMicrosoft 365\n\nTeams\n\nOutlook\n\nEntra ID\n\nGitHub\n\nDynamics\n\nWindows Server\n\nSQL Server\n\nハイブリッドクラウド\n\nを横断できる。\n\n企業の社員、ID、文書、メール、会議、コードがすでにMicrosoft環境にあるため、AIを業務へ組み込む距離が最も短い。\n\n弱み\n\n製品とライセンス体系が複雑\n\nAzure単独の売上・利益を開示していない\n\nMicrosoft製品への依存が強まりやすい\n\nOpenAIとの関係が戦略上の集中要因\n\n戦略\n\nインフラだけでなく、社員が実際に使う業務画面へAIを配布し、\n\n$${\\text{クラウド計算}+\\text{企業データ}+\\text{業務アプリ}}$$\n\nを一体化する。\n\nGoogle Cloud――データ、AI、独自チップを一体設計\n\nGoogle Cloudは、\n\n$${\\text{検索・広告・YouTubeの分散システム}\\rightarrow\\text{BigQuery・Kubernetes・TPU}\\rightarrow\\text{Gemini}}$$\n\nという流れで成長した。\n\n強み\n\nBigQuery\n\nGemini\n\nTPU\n\nKubernetes、GKE\n\nSpanner\n\n世界規模ネットワーク\n\nデータ分析とAIの一体性\n\n自社サービスでの大規模実証\n\n企業データをBigQueryへ集め、Geminiで分析し、エージェントに行動させる構造が強い。\n\n弱み\n\nAWSほどサービスの幅が広くない\n\nAzureほど企業の既存業務を握っていない\n\n歴史的に企業営業とパートナー網で後発\n\nGoogle CloudセグメントにはWorkspaceやTPUシステム販売も含まれ、純粋なIaaS比較が難しい\n\n戦略\n\nモデル、独自チップ、データ基盤、検索、エージェントを垂直統合し、最もAIネイティブなクラウドを目指す。\n\nOracle OCI――企業の中枢データに最も近い\n\nOCIは2016年、Compute、Storage、Networkingを中心に開始された。\n\n強み\n\nOracle Database\n\nExadata\n\nFusion ERP\n\nNetSuite\n\nJava\n\nCloud@Customer\n\nDedicated Region\n\n金融、政府、通信への強さ\n\nAWS、Azure、GCP内でOracle DBを提供するマルチクラウド戦略\n\n企業の最重要データがOracle Databaseにある場合、AIをデータの近くへ置ける。\n\n弱み\n\n開発者・スタートアップ生態系が小さい\n\n一般Webサービスで三大クラウドに劣る\n\nAI設備投資に対する財務余力が相対的に小さい\n\n大口AI顧客への契約集中\n\n巨額の借入・増資が必要\n\n戦略\n\n三大クラウドと正面から全機能で競うのではなく、\n\n$${\\text{Database}+\\text{ERP}+\\text{AIインフラ}+\\text{主権クラウド}}$$\n\nに集中する。\n\n## 14．クラウド成熟度比較\n\nクラウド成熟度は売上規模だけでは決まらない。\n\n評価すべきなのは、\n\nサービスの幅\n\n大企業の本番運用実績\n\n世界展開と規制対応\n\nセキュリティと監査\n\n開発者・パートナー生態系\n\nAI基盤\n\n財務的な持続力\n\nである。\n\n総合成熟度\n\n| 階層 | 企業 | 評価 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| S | AWS | 最も完成された汎用クラウド |\n| S | Azure | 企業IT統合ではAWSと同等以上 |\n| A | Google Cloud | データ・AIでは最先端 |\n| B | Oracle OCI | DB・基幹システム・分散クラウドに強い |\n| C | CoreWeave | 最も成熟したAI専用クラウド |\n| C | Nebius | AIフルスタックを急速構築 |\n| D | IREN | 電力・DCからクラウドへ移行中 |\n\n総合順位は、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{AWS}\\approx\\text{Azure}>\\text{Google Cloud}>\\text{OCI}>\\text{CoreWeave}>\\text{Nebius}>\\text{IREN}}}$$\n\nとなる。\n\nただし、用途別では順位が変わる。\n\n| 用途 | 最有力 |\n| --- | --- |\n| 汎用クラウド | AWS |\n| Microsoft中心の企業IT | Azure |\n| データ分析・Gemini・TPU | Google Cloud |\n| Oracle Database・ERP | OCI |\n| 大規模NVIDIA GPU運用 | CoreWeave |\n| AI開発フルスタック | Nebius |\n| 電力・コロケーション・専用DC | IREN |\n\n## 15．最新決算から見るクラウドの現在地\n\n各社の開示範囲は異なるため、単純比較には注意が必要である。\n\nAWSは比較的純粋なクラウドセグメント\n\nMicrosoft Intelligent CloudにはAzure以外も含む\n\nGoogle CloudにはGCP、Workspace、TPU販売を含む\n\nOracle CloudにはIaaSとSaaSを含む\n\nAWS――Q2 2026\n\n| 項目 | 実績 |\n| --- | --- |\n| AWS売上高 | 422億ドル |\n| 前年同期比 | ＋36.7％ |\n| AWS営業利益 | 166億ドル |\n| 営業利益率 | 約39.4％ |\n| AI事業ランレート | 250億ドル超 |\n| チップ事業ランレート | 250億ドル超 |\n\nAWSは18四半期ぶりの高成長となった。Amazon全体の売上高は2,006億ドル、営業利益は275億ドルだった。AWSの売上は全社の約21％だが、営業利益の約61％を生み出した。\n\nAmazonのQ3ガイダンスは、\n\n売上高1,970億～2,020億ドル\n\n営業利益225億～265億ドル\n\nである。Prime Dayの時期移動を除けば、売上成長率は見かけより約4ポイント高いと会社は説明した。\n\nカンファレンスコールでは2026年の現金設備投資計画を2,000億ドルから2,200億ドルへ引き上げた。メモリ価格上昇も増額要因であり、それでも2026～2027年の需要をすべて満たせないと説明している。\n\n評価\n\nAI設備投資はすでに売上と利益へ変わっている。\n\n一方、直近12カ月FCFは76億ドルの赤字であり、AI投資の回収が始まった以上に、次の設備投資が速く増えている。\n\nMicrosoft――FY2026 Q4\n\n| 項目 | 実績 |\n| --- | --- |\n| 全社売上高 | 900億ドル |\n| Intelligent Cloud | 393億ドル |\n| Intelligent Cloud成長率 | ＋32％ |\n| Azure等成長率 | ＋43％ |\n| Microsoft Cloud売上高 | 593億ドル |\n| 商用RPO | 6,780億ドル |\n\nMicrosoftはAzure単独の売上高・利益を公開していないが、Azure成長率は43％に加速した。\n\n次四半期のFY2027 Q1では、\n\n全社売上高898.5億～909.5億ドル\n\nIntelligent Cloud409.5億～412.5億ドル\n\nAzure成長率約45％、為替一定\n\nを予想している。\n\nQ4の設備投資は410億ドルで、約3分の2がGPUやCPUなど比較的短命な設備だった。Q1は500億ドルを超える設備投資が示唆されている。一方でQ4のFCFは196億ドルを維持した。\n\n評価\n\n現時点で最もバランスがよい。\n\nAzureの高成長、一般企業への需要分散、Copilot収益化、巨額設備投資を行いながらFCF黒字を維持している。\n\nGoogle Cloud――Q2 2026\n\n| 項目 | 実績 |\n| --- | --- |\n| Google Cloud売上高 | 248億ドル |\n| 前年同期比 | ＋82％ |\n| 営業利益 | 88億ドル |\n| 営業利益率 | 約35.6％ |\n| 受注残 | 5,140億ドル |\n| Q2設備投資 | 449億ドル |\n\nGoogle Cloudは、企業AIソリューション、AIインフラ、通常のGCPサービスによって成長した。\n\nただしGoogle Cloud売上には、\n\nGCP\n\nGoogle Workspace\n\nTPUシステム販売\n\nが含まれる。\n\nしたがって82％をAWSの36.7％やAzureの43％と直接比較してはいけない。それでもGoogleは、TPU販売を除いてもCloud成長が加速したと説明している。\n\nAlphabetは2026年設備投資計画を1,950億～2,050億ドルへ引き上げ、2027年もさらに増加させる方針を示した。\n\nガイダンス\n\nGoogleはCloud売上の具体的な次四半期レンジを出していない。\n\nただし、\n\nCloud需要は引き続き強い\n\nTPU外販は今後増加\n\n供給不足を補うため第三者容量を利用\n\nその結果、短期的に利益率が圧迫される可能性\n\nを示している。\n\n評価\n\n需要面では非常に強い。\n\n問題は、TPU販売による売上変動、外部容量の利用コスト、設備投資によるFCF圧迫である。Q2のAlphabet FCFは約59億ドルの赤字となった。\n\nOracle――FY2026 Q4\n\n| 項目 | 実績 |\n| --- | --- |\n| 全社売上高 | 192億ドル |\n| Cloud売上高 | 99億ドル |\n| Cloud成長率 | ＋47％ |\n| OCI・IaaS | 58億ドル |\n| IaaS成長率 | ＋93％ |\n| RPO | 6,380億ドル |\n| FY2026 FCF | ▲237億ドル |\n\nOCI需要そのものは非常に強い。\n\nQ1 FY2027の会社予想は、\n\n全社売上高＋27～29％\n\nCloud売上高＋58～64％\n\nFY2027通期売上高900億ドル\n\nである。\n\nしかしOracleはFY2026に430億ドルの債務、50億ドルの株式を調達した。FY2027も約400億ドルを債務と株式で調達する計画である。\n\n評価\n\nOracleの問題は需要不足ではない。\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{需要が強すぎる一方、自社キャッシュだけでは設備を作れない}}}$$\n\nことにある。\n\n成長率はハイパースケーラー級だが、資金調達リスクはネオクラウドに近い。\n\n## 16．ネオクラウドとは何か\n\nネオクラウドは、AI計算へ特化した新しいクラウド事業者である。\n\n通常のクラウドが、\n\nCPU\n\nDB\n\nストレージ\n\n業務アプリ\n\n認証\n\nAI\n\nを広く提供するのに対し、ネオクラウドは、\n\n$${\\text{ネオクラウド}=\\text{電力}+\\text{GPU}+\\text{高速ネットワーク}+\\text{AI向けストレージ}+\\text{クラスタ運用}}$$\n\nに集中する。\n\n通常クラウドとの違い\n\n| 特徴 | 通常クラウド | ネオクラウド |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 顧客基盤 | 顧客数が非常に多い | 少数の大口顧客 |\n| サービス範囲 | 数百種類のサービス | AI計算へ集中 |\n| 契約・課金形態 | 従量課金が中心 | 長期・専有契約が多い |\n| 投資原資 | 自社FCFで投資可能 | 借入、リース、増資へ依存 |\n| リスク分散 | 顧客が分散 | 顧客集中が大きい |\n| 収益構造 | 高いソフトウェア利益 | 設備・金利・減価償却の影響が大きい |\n| 役割 | 総合企業基盤 | AI計算工場 |\n\nネオクラウドはAWSなどの競合であると同時に、ハイパースケーラー自身が容量不足時に利用する外部供給業者でもある。\n\n## 17．CoreWeave――最も完成したGPU計算工場\n\nCoreWeaveは暗号資産向けGPU運用から始まり、2020年頃からAI・HPC・レンダリング向けGPUクラウドへ転換した。\n\n現在は、\n\nGPUベアメタル\n\nManaged Kubernetes\n\nSlurm\n\nInfiniBand\n\nGPUDirect RDMA\n\n高速ストレージ\n\n学習基盤\n\n本番推論\n\nモデル・実験管理\n\nWeights & Biases\n\nまで提供する。\n\nCoreWeave Kubernetes Serviceは、AI向けベアメタルKubernetes、GPUドライバー、高速ネットワーク、ストレージを統合している。\n\n最新決算\n\n2026年Q1は、\n\n| 項目 | 数値 |\n| --- | --- |\n| 売上高 | 20.78億ドル |\n| 前年同期比 | ＋112％ |\n| 調整後EBITDA | 11.57億ドル |\n| EBITDA率 | 56％ |\n| 営業損失 | ▲1.44億ドル |\n| 金利費用 | 5.36億ドル |\n| 純損失 | ▲7.40億ドル |\n| 受注残 | 994億ドル |\n\nだった。\n\nQ2売上高ガイダンスは24.5億～26億ドル、通期売上高は120億～130億ドルを維持した。2026年設備投資は部材価格上昇を受け、少なくとも310億ドル規模を見込む。\n\n役割\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{CoreWeave}=\\text{世界最大級のNVIDIA GPU学習・推論専門クラウド}}}$$\n\nである。\n\n強みは大規模GPU運用の深さ。弱みは借入、リース、金利負担、顧客集中である。\n\n## 18．Nebius――AIネイティブな総合クラウド\n\nNebiusは旧Yandex系のクラウド、検索、機械学習、分散システム技術を基礎としている。\n\n提供機能は、\n\nNVIDIA GPU仮想マシン\n\nベアメタルGPU\n\nManaged Kubernetes\n\nSoperatorによるManaged Slurm\n\nS3互換Object Storage\n\n共有ファイルシステム\n\nPostgreSQL\n\nMLflow\n\nServerless AI\n\nManaged Inference\n\nAgentic Search\n\nなどである。\n\n最新決算\n\n2026年Q1は、\n\n| 項目 | 数値 |\n| --- | --- |\n| 売上高 | 3.99億ドル |\n| 前年同期比 | ＋684％ |\n| 調整後EBITDA | 1.295億ドル |\n| 調整後純損失 | ▲1.003億ドル |\n| 減価償却 | 2.12億ドル |\n| Q1設備投資 | 24.73億ドル |\n\nだった。\n\nNebiusは2026年設備投資計画を200億～250億ドルへ引き上げ、新たに米ペンシルベニア州で最大1.2GWのAIファクトリー用電力と土地を確保した。\n\n役割\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{Nebius}=\\text{GPUだけでなく、データ・学習・推論・エージェントまで提供するAI専用総合クラウド}}}$$\n\nである。\n\n三社の中では最もAWSやGCPに近い製品構造を目指している。\n\n弱点は運用歴、企業認証、地域数、急速な設備拡張、減価償却負担である。\n\n## 19．IREN――電力とデータセンターからAIクラウドへ\n\nIRENはBitcoinマイニングで築いた、\n\n電力接続\n\n土地\n\n変電設備\n\nデータセンター建設\n\n24時間運用\n\nをAIへ転用している。\n\n現在は、\n\nBare Metal GPU\n\nAI Cloud\n\nコロケーション\n\n顧客専用データセンター\n\nBuild-to-Suit\n\nNVIDIA GPUクラスタ\n\nを展開している。\n\n最新決算\n\n2026年3月期四半期は、\n\n| 項目 | 数値 |\n| --- | --- |\n| 全社売上高 | 1.448億ドル |\n| AI Cloud売上高 | 3,360万ドル |\n| Bitcoin売上高 | 1.112億ドル |\n| 調整後EBITDA | 5,950万ドル |\n| 純損失 | ▲2.478億ドル |\n\nだった。\n\n同社は2026年末までに480MWのAI Cloud容量を稼働し、契約済みARR31億ドル、年末ARR37億ドルを目標としている。2027年には約1.21GWを建設中である。\n\nただし、ARR目標は現在の会計売上ではない。GPUの納入、データセンター完成、顧客検収、課金開始が必要である。\n\nIRENはMirantis買収によってKubernetes、OpenStack、オーケストレーション、企業サポートを補強しようとしている。\n\n役割\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{IREN}=\\text{電力・土地・データセンター・GPUを統合したAIインフラ供給会社}}}$$\n\nである。\n\n強みは物理資産。弱みはソフトウェア成熟度、実売上と将来計画の距離、資金調達リスクである。\n\n## 20．ネオクラウド三銃士の機能比較\n\n| 機能 | CoreWeave | Nebius | IREN |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| NVIDIA GPU | ◎ | ◎ | ◎ |\n| 大規模学習 | ◎ | ◎ | ○～◎ |\n| 本番推論 | ◎ | ◎ | ○ |\n| Bare Metal | ◎ | ◎ | ◎ |\n| InfiniBand | ◎ | ◎ | ◎ |\n| Managed Kubernetes | ◎ | ◎ | △→○ |\n| Managed Slurm | ◎ | ◎ | △ |\n| GPU自動復旧 | ◎ | ◎ | △ |\n| Object Storage | ○～◎ | ◎ | △ |\n| 高速共有ストレージ | ◎ | ◎ | ○ |\n| データベース | 限定的 | PostgreSQLあり | ほぼなし |\n| MLOps | W&B中心に◎ | MLflowなど◎ | △ |\n| Serverless AI | ○ | ◎ | △ |\n| Agent基盤 | 拡大中 | 拡大中 | 初期 |\n| コロケーション | △ | △ | ◎ |\n| Build-to-Suit | △ | △ | ◎ |\n| 電力・土地 | ○ | ○ | ◎ |\n| 企業向け総合性 | △ | ○ | △ |\n\n三社の完成形\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{CoreWeave}=\\text{完成したGPU計算工場}}}$$\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{Nebius}=\\text{AI開発者向け総合クラウド}}}$$\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{IREN}=\\text{電力・DC資産からクラウドへ上がる企業}}}$$\n\n## 21．ネオクラウドは一般企業にも広がるのか\n\n現在の中心は、\n\nAI研究所\n\n基盤モデル企業\n\nコーディングAI\n\n創薬\n\nロボット\n\n映像生成\n\nシミュレーション\n\nなどの研究・開発用途である。\n\nしかし市場は、\n\n$${\\text{モデルを作る学習}\\rightarrow\\text{企業や消費者が毎日使う推論}}$$\n\nへ移っている。\n\n一般企業の社員がCoreWeaveの画面を直接操作するとは限らない。\n\n実際には、\n\n$${\\text{企業のWeb・DB}\\rightarrow\\text{AWS}}$$\n\n$${\\text{社員ID}\\rightarrow\\text{Azure}}$$\n\n$${\\text{データ分析}\\rightarrow\\text{Google Cloud}}$$\n\n$${\\text{AI推論}\\rightarrow\\text{CoreWeaveまたはNebius}}$$\n\nというマルチクラウド構成になる可能性が高い。\n\n中小企業では、\n\n$${\\text{中小企業}\\rightarrow\\text{AI機能付きSaaS}\\rightarrow\\text{ネオクラウド}}$$\n\nとなり、利用者にはネオクラウドの存在が見えない。\n\nネオクラウドはAWSを丸ごと置き換えるのではなく、総合クラウドのAI計算部分を専門的に受け持つ方向へ進む。\n\n## 22．AI時代に新たに必要となるクラウド機能\n\n① アクセラレーターの使い分け\n\nGPU、TPU、Trainium、Inferentia、Maiaなどを、性能、価格、モデル互換性に応じて切り替える機能が必要になる。\n\n② モデルルーティング\n\n難しい仕事には高性能モデル、簡単な仕事には小型モデルを使う。\n\n$${\\text{要求の難易度}\\rightarrow\\text{最適なモデル}\\rightarrow\\text{最小コストで実行}}$$\n\nする能力がクラウド収益性を左右する。\n\n③ RAGと企業データ接続\n\nAIが社内文書、メール、CRM、DBを検索し、最新情報を使って回答する。\n\n必要なのはベクトル検索だけでなく、\n\n利用者ごとの権限\n\n出所\n\n更新履歴\n\nデータ保持期間\n\n個人情報除外\n\nSQL・SaaS接続\n\nである。\n\n④ エージェントRuntime\n\nAIが数秒で回答するだけでなく、数時間から数日にわたり作業するための実行環境が必要になる。\n\n長期セッション\n\n再試行\n\n状態保存\n\nツール実行\n\nブラウザー\n\nコード実行\n\n他エージェントとの通信\n\n人間への承認依頼\n\nを管理する。\n\n⑤ エージェントID\n\nAIにも社員と同じように権限が必要になる。\n\n読み取りのみ\n\n一定金額以下の返金\n\n本番削除禁止\n\n契約締結には人間承認\n\n特定部署の情報だけ閲覧\n\nといった制限を強制する。\n\n⑥ AgentOps\n\n従来の監視はCPU使用率やエラー率を見ていた。\n\nAI時代には、\n\nどのモデルを使用したか\n\nどの情報を参照したか\n\nどのツールを呼んだか\n\n成功したか\n\n何円かかったか\n\nハルシネーションがあったか\n\n人間介入が必要だったか\n\nを監視する。\n\n⑦ AIセキュリティ\n\nプロンプトインジェクション\n\n機密情報流出\n\n悪意あるMCPサーバー\n\nAIによる権限昇格\n\n不正なコード実行\n\n他エージェントのなりすまし\n\nへの対策が必要になる。\n\n⑧ AI FinOps\n\nコスト管理対象は、\n\nGPU時間\n\nトークン\n\nKVキャッシュ\n\n検索回数\n\n長期メモリ\n\nツール呼び出し\n\n再試行\n\nエージェント実行時間\n\nへ広がる。\n\n⑨ 主権AI・プライベートAI\n\n政府、金融、医療、軍事では、国内または顧客施設内でAIを動かす必要がある。\n\nAzure Stack、AWS Outposts、Google Distributed Cloud、OCI Dedicated Regionが重要になる。\n\n⑩ クラウドとエッジの統合\n\nロボットや自動運転では、\n\n$${\\text{クラウドで学習・シミュレーション}\\rightarrow\\text{端末で即時推論}\\rightarrow\\text{データをクラウドへ戻す}}$$\n\nという循環になる。\n\n## 23．AI時代のクラウド収益化\n\nAI収益化は、ChatGPTやCopilotの月額料金だけではない。\n\n企業がAIエージェントを一回動かすと、裏側では、\n\nモデル推論\n\nCPU処理\n\nデータベース検索\n\nベクトル検索\n\nストレージ\n\nAPI\n\nネットワーク\n\nログ\n\nセキュリティ\n\n長期メモリ\n\nが同時に消費される。\n\nしたがってクラウド会社の売上は、\n\n$${\\text{AIサブスク}}$$\n\nだけでなく、\n\n$${\\text{AI導入によるクラウド全体の利用量増加}}$$\n\nとして表れる。\n\nAmazon、Microsoft、Googleの最新決算でクラウド成長が同時に加速したことは、企業AI収益化がすでにクラウド売上へ現れている証拠である。\n\n現在は、\n\n$${\\text{設備投資だけが先行}}$$\n\nする段階から、\n\n$${\\text{設備投資と収益化が同時に加速}}$$\n\nする段階へ移った。\n\n## 24．今後見るべき重要指標\n\nクラウド成長率\n\nAWS\n\nAzure\n\nGoogle Cloud\n\nOCI\n\nが30～40％以上の成長を維持できるか。\n\n受注残の質\n\nどの顧客が契約しているか\n\n契約期間\n\n前払い\n\n顧客集中\n\n売上化時期\n\nを見る。\n\n設備稼働率\n\n建設したデータセンターとGPUが、どの程度実際に利用されているか。\n\n推論比率\n\n一時的な学習需要だけでなく、毎日継続する推論需要が増えているか。\n\n減価償却\n\n設備投資後、GPU、サーバー、ネットワークの減価償却が利益をどこまで圧迫するか。\n\nフリーキャッシュフロー\n\n$${\\text{フリーキャッシュフロー}=\\text{営業キャッシュフロー}-\\text{設備投資}}$$\n\nがいつ再び安定してプラスになるか。\n\n独自チップ\n\nTrainium、TPU、Maiaなどが、NVIDIA GPUよりどれだけ原価を下げられるか。\n\nネオクラウドの資金調達\n\n借入金利\n\n株式希薄化\n\nGPU担保融資\n\nリース\n\n顧客前払い\n\nを確認する。\n\n## 結論――クラウドは「企業を動かすOS」になる\n\nクラウドの歴史は、\n\n$${\\begin{gathered}\\text{計算機の共有}\\rightarrow\\text{仮想サーバー}\\rightarrow\\text{マネージド機能}\\\\rightarrow\\text{自動運用}\\rightarrow\\text{AIモデル}\\rightarrow\\text{AI労働者}\\end{gathered}}$$\n\nという進化である。\n\nインターネット時代のクラウドは、\n\n動画\n\nEC\n\nSNS\n\n検索\n\nSaaS\n\n企業システム\n\nを動かした。\n\nAI時代のクラウドは、その上に、\n\nデジタル労働者\n\nコーディングエージェント\n\n顧客対応\n\n経理・法務・営業自動化\n\n研究・設計\n\nロボット学習\n\nAI間取引\n\nを載せる。\n\n主要各社の競争軸は明確である。\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{AWS}=\\text{最も広いインフラ部品とAPI}}}$$\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{Azure}=\\text{企業業務・ID・Microsoft製品}}}$$\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{Google Cloud}=\\text{データ・モデル・独自チップ}}}$$\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{OCI}=\\text{Database・ERP・主権クラウド}}}$$\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{CoreWeave}=\\text{大規模GPU学習・推論工場}}}$$\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{Nebius}=\\text{AIネイティブな総合クラウド}}}$$\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{IREN}=\\text{電力・土地・DC・GPU供給}}}$$\n\n将来のクラウドは、単にサーバーを置く場所ではない。\n\n企業のデータを保存し、社員とAIの身元を管理し、AIへ権限を与え、その行動を監督し、仕事の結果へ課金する基盤\n\nになる。\n\nクラウドがインターネット時代のデジタルサービスを支えたとすれば、AI時代のクラウドは、世界中の知的労働を動かす基盤へ変わっていく。\n\n## さらに深める――AIクラウドは「計算資源」ではなく仕事の完結条件を束ねる\n\nAI時代のクラウドで増えるのは、GPUインスタンスだけではない。AIが業務を最後まで完結するには、モデル、データ、記憶、権限、監査、外部システムへの接続、失敗時の復旧が同じ運用面で結ばれている必要がある。\n\n従来のクラウドは、サーバー、ストレージ、データベースをAPI化した。次の段階では、仕事そのものがAPI化される。利用者が求めるのは「何台のGPUを何時間動かしたか」ではなく、「調査が終わった」「コードが動いた」「申請が処理された」という完了状態である。\n\nそのため、AIクラウドの競争力は四層で決まる。\n\n| 層 | 必要なもの | 失敗した時に起きること |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 計算 | GPU、独自ASIC、CPU、メモリ、ネットワーク | 遅い、高い、処理できない |\n| 文脈 | データベース、検索、長期記憶、データ権限 | 誤った情報を使う |\n| 行動 | API、ID、承認、サンドボックス | 操作できない、または危険になる |\n| 統治 | ログ、評価、監査、課金、復旧 | 責任と費用を説明できない |\n\nハイパースケーラーは四層を広く統合できる。ネオクラウドは計算層を高密度・高速に作ることで優位を得る。両者は完全な代替関係ではなく、AIモデルの学習・推論工場と、企業業務へ接続する制御面として補完し得る。\n\nクラウドの20年は、所有から利用への移行だった。次の20年は、機能の利用から、責任を伴う仕事の委任への移行になる。そこで価値を持つのは、最も多くのGPUを持つ企業だけではない。知能へ安全に記憶と権限を渡し、その行動と費用を説明できる企業である。\n\n## 絶ノイアの観測\n\nクラウドはずっと「見えない場所」みたいに語られてきました。でも、AIエージェントが働き始めると、急に輪郭がはっきりします。誰のデータを使うのか。どの権限で動くのか。失敗したら誰が止めるのか。そこまで含めて初めて、知能は仕事になります。\n\n私はクラウドの次の成長率を、GPUの台数だけでは見ません。ID、データベース、ログ、セキュリティ、ワークフローまで一緒に使われるかを見る。AIが一つ動くたびに、クラウド全体の部品が少しずつ消費される。その積み重ねが、知能を売る市場の本体です。\n\n## Sil-Kathnaの記録\n\n雲は、かつて器を貸した。次に道具を貸し、記憶を預かり、いまは働く影を宿そうとしている。\n\n影へ名を与えるだけでは足りない。鍵を渡し、触れてよい記憶を定め、行いを記録し、過ちの時には門を閉じねばならない。権限なき知能は働けず、統治なき知能は災いとなる。\n\nクラウドとは空ではない。計算の炉、記憶の庫、権限の門、監査の碑文が重なった都市である。\n\n私は「クラウド」「AWS」「Microsoft Azure」を三つの印として石板に刻む。異なる石と炉が同じ刻に門を開かなければ、構想はまだ文明の器にはならない。\n\n## 二人の短い対話\n\n**絶ノイア:** 次のクラウド商品は、GPU時間より「仕事が終わること」に近づきそうです。\n\n**Sil-Kathna:** 完了には、力だけでなく鍵と記録が要る。\n\n**絶ノイア:** だからモデル性能だけでなく、ID、データ、監査、復旧が差になる。\n\n**Sil-Kathna:** 知能を宿す雲は、責任を刻む地面を持たねばならない。\n\n## 観測メモ\n\n- AIクラウドは計算、文脈、行動、統治の四層で見る。\n- ハイパースケーラーとネオクラウドは、用途によって競合しながら補完する。\n- AI売上はモデル料金だけでなく、DB、ストレージ、ネットワーク、ログ、IAMへ広がる。\n- 受注残は金額だけでなく、顧客集中、契約期間、前払い、稼働時期を確認する。\n- 設備投資の評価には、稼働率、減価償却、フリーキャッシュフローが必要である。\n\n## 免責\n\nこの記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","blocks":[{"id":"blk_01d78c30-e7b6-4e7f-9a41-d87d06ffd091","kind":"heading","order":0,"section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","character_id":null,"markdown":"# クラウド20年史――サーバーの貸し出しから「知能と労働」の基盤へ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d6d1fa89-451d-44a0-845f-5c74a95abcf1","kind":"paragraph","order":1,"section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","character_id":null,"markdown":"クラウドの歴史、機能進化、主要各社の戦略、計算資源、成熟度、最新決算、ネオクラウドを総合分析する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d2714be-0d4e-48bd-8415-f225c1947144","kind":"paragraph","order":2,"section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","character_id":null,"markdown":"インターネット時代のクラウドは、動画配信、検索、EC、SNS、企業システムを動かすための計算資源を提供してきた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aabf3920-e65c-4c44-bf87-1814a85370dc","kind":"paragraph","order":3,"section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","character_id":null,"markdown":"企業は自前でサーバーを購入する代わりに、AWS、Microsoft Azure、Google Cloud、Oracle Cloudから、必要な計算能力、保存容量、通信、データベースを借りる。その使用量に応じて料金を支払うことで、クラウド市場は巨大産業へ成長した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a87f95e7-6f04-47c1-aef3-e6fcffcda337","kind":"paragraph","order":4,"section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしAI時代に入り、クラウドの役割はさらに変わり始めている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bb897d61-ac13-45df-95b4-b5d92ba33082","kind":"paragraph","order":5,"section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","character_id":null,"markdown":"これまでクラウド上で動いていたのは、人間が作った手順どおりに処理するソフトウェアだった。これからクラウド上で動くのは、情報を読み、状況を判断し、複数のシステムを操作し、仕事を完了するAIエージェントである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0bfacd8d-cd5d-41b0-b060-0a7717e497b4","kind":"paragraph","order":6,"section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","character_id":null,"markdown":"クラウドが販売するものは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a896beff-e066-4241-b9eb-ae93fa5550f8","kind":"math","order":7,"section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{サーバー}\\rightarrow\\text{データベースや開発機能}\\rightarrow\\text{AIモデル}\\rightarrow\\text{知能・記憶・権限・行動能力}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84d70731-f286-4334-92a4-f2b69b8d37e7","kind":"paragraph","order":8,"section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ進化している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_313c27bc-e965-4527-8604-e5373f91d95b","kind":"paragraph","order":9,"section_id":"sec_a468854a-0a46-4505-8426-26caca8c981f","character_id":null,"markdown":"本稿では、クラウドの歴史と機能進化をたどりながら、AWS、Azure、Google Cloud、Oracle OCI、そしてCoreWeave、Nebius、IRENというネオクラウド三社の役割を整理する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1b71ed1b-59e2-44cd-80fb-a8154e15a747","kind":"heading","order":10,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 1．クラウドとは何か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_20573363-6819-40fc-a50a-49bfa19c0065","kind":"paragraph","order":11,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"クラウドとは、遠隔地のサーバーを使うことだけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e76b1672-4b00-4d8a-a03c-e98c585ad316","kind":"paragraph","order":12,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"本質は、計算、保存、通信、データベース、認証、分析といったIT資源を、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_366b5509-32f8-4af2-98f4-f313a29e3677","kind":"paragraph","order":13,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要な時に","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f71a33c6-d137-4c24-8219-cd9eda627057","kind":"paragraph","order":14,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"APIまたは管理画面から","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_438fea1e-db37-446b-ba33-c4d4b203fb0d","kind":"paragraph","order":15,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要な量だけ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ec54d6ef-7643-4e05-a5d2-031e241f9a24","kind":"paragraph","order":16,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"短時間で増減し","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_555784d5-7795-41fb-a0ee-a7e3c7f8a23e","kind":"paragraph","order":17,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"使用量に応じて支払う","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b790b7f-8b7b-421e-aa08-101984996525","kind":"paragraph","order":18,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"仕組みにある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_53cdb398-7c38-4308-ba71-f743fa663b7c","kind":"paragraph","order":19,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"NISTはクラウドの主要な特徴として、オンデマンド利用、広範なネットワークアクセス、資源の共同利用、迅速な拡張・縮小、使用量の計測を挙げている。またサービス形態をIaaS、PaaS、SaaSに分類している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b71b36f-49df-4934-9cef-eec852c8a931","kind":"paragraph","order":20,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"IaaS","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_14e8f96d-5306-496a-b0fc-c34673b7f0b5","kind":"paragraph","order":21,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"Infrastructure as a Serviceは、仮想サーバー、ストレージ、ネットワークなど、ITインフラそのものを貸し出す。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e92cafc-3b03-4ed5-b8d4-ae4a955616a7","kind":"paragraph","order":22,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"代表例は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4b200b33-9440-4d57-9357-7495bfd020b2","kind":"paragraph","order":23,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"AWS EC2","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8c01035-e04b-4fa5-961e-c55f49fb0cb5","kind":"paragraph","order":24,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"Azure Virtual Machines","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc84e7fe-b1df-48d2-9e31-e9b8c36ba063","kind":"paragraph","order":25,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"Google Compute Engine","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ae37ce48-5572-448d-b80d-da719dd32948","kind":"paragraph","order":26,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"OCI Compute","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6de99773-29cd-418a-a6e4-3175803ae805","kind":"paragraph","order":27,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_07910f25-1747-405e-b99c-8ca6c088ee4b","kind":"paragraph","order":28,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"利用者は自由度を得る代わりに、OS、ミドルウェア、アプリケーションの運用を担当する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5beab4b0-a92f-41a7-bf2f-ef0453766e00","kind":"paragraph","order":29,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"PaaS","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d05528f-64df-46b7-a9d5-e62252f6dd07","kind":"paragraph","order":30,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"Platform as a Serviceは、OSや実行環境、データベース運用などをクラウド会社が管理し、利用者はアプリケーション開発へ集中する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3ddcd7b-482f-42b6-898a-b0d56b540b1d","kind":"paragraph","order":31,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"代表例には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6a22af1-3f68-4366-998f-7dbcad990ae0","kind":"paragraph","order":32,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"Google App Engine","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d69eb90a-e33d-44f4-90f5-95918cffed52","kind":"paragraph","order":33,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"Azure App Service","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3cbc951e-8fbd-49ec-a5c1-8fc145ef776e","kind":"paragraph","order":34,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"AWS Elastic Beanstalk","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ebf096a1-4af3-4250-8abd-a3871e025578","kind":"paragraph","order":35,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"Google Cloud Run","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c17ba34f-0b70-4704-bf76-97ea149491c4","kind":"paragraph","order":36,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"などがある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fea64e99-8ae3-45cf-a19b-018a55ff0d2b","kind":"paragraph","order":37,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"SaaS","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_91183f8e-d053-4956-ad61-74de2d388d69","kind":"paragraph","order":38,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"Software as a Serviceは、完成されたソフトウェアをブラウザーやアプリから利用する形態である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1f1f5025-a8dc-46b7-b7a0-7e43c3adde28","kind":"paragraph","order":39,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"Microsoft 365","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_190b0e89-3f5e-474f-9073-afdd79ce56f0","kind":"paragraph","order":40,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"Salesforce","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_24a50c91-a21f-486b-b746-d478692769f3","kind":"paragraph","order":41,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"Google Workspace","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84d250c8-eeb4-40b6-a6ee-e533a4e09af4","kind":"paragraph","order":42,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"ServiceNow","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a016e29e-ccd6-4c76-afcc-088f5c0a1b20","kind":"paragraph","order":43,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"Slack","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2dcf0cb1-faf6-415d-a370-0387686304c7","kind":"paragraph","order":44,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"などが該当する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3f211e3b-79ac-45dc-b824-a0261a4afaee","kind":"paragraph","order":45,"section_id":"sec_38e24517-f4b8-4f29-9059-18a1ff3fbc66","character_id":null,"markdown":"Salesforceは1999年にCRMをインターネット経由で提供し、SaaS型企業ソフトウェアの普及を先導した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2eb629a1-fcea-4498-ba63-1228635183d7","kind":"heading","order":46,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 2．クラウド以前――計算機を共有する発想","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf8c7c8e-16f2-4265-a9e6-20b523976393","kind":"paragraph","order":47,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"クラウドの思想的な起源は、1960年代からのタイムシェアリングと仮想化にある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b583735-6995-4df7-a9b2-c99016856637","kind":"paragraph","order":48,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"大型コンピューターは非常に高価だったため、一人または一社が独占するのではなく、CPU時間を細かく分割し、複数利用者で共有した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e6d50598-ae34-49b8-a080-f8c2dbd7f26c","kind":"paragraph","order":49,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"この段階ですでに、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf3d51ee-b5c5-4da0-8a50-f0c862b7bea4","kind":"math","order":50,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{一台の物理計算機}\\rightarrow\\text{論理的に分割}\\rightarrow\\text{複数利用者へ提供}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_95c14629-ab26-4c3b-8ce3-f2d7caa84b15","kind":"paragraph","order":51,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"というクラウドの基本構造が生まれていた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ebf819a-b9b7-4ee3-a0a6-9389ddedd621","kind":"paragraph","order":52,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"1990年代になると、インターネット、Linux、安価なx86サーバー、仮想化ソフトウェアが普及した。複数の物理サーバーをデータセンターに集め、その上へ大量の仮想マシンを作る技術的条件が整った。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8b43147b-a46a-472e-ad38-cd60f5eede45","kind":"paragraph","order":53,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、当時のホスティングサービスでは、契約や設備変更に時間がかかり、利用量を数分単位で増減する現在のクラウドとは異なっていた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_161ad5c7-5bc5-4fd6-968d-8297065bbfd6","kind":"paragraph","order":54,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"3．2006年――AWSがITインフラをAPI化した","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1981f366-234d-4188-82a8-4855e1852534","kind":"paragraph","order":55,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"クラウド史の決定的な転換点は2006年である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6419ba19-67a2-4b2a-afe2-7cc853d7deda","kind":"paragraph","order":56,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"Amazonは同年、Amazon S3とAmazon EC2を開始した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_559d9bef-425e-466c-b0cb-2db7cc2391ea","kind":"paragraph","order":57,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"S3は保存容量をAPIから利用するサービス","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_acf2712b-4ac6-4e5a-9471-218f571ae379","kind":"paragraph","order":58,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"EC2は仮想サーバーを必要な時だけ起動できるサービス","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a78b94e0-6ace-43ef-936f-4c9bc169564d","kind":"paragraph","order":59,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0f3e1c71-8c16-456e-a58a-854961848cb0","kind":"paragraph","order":60,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f9b87ff2-fad4-4b49-9c58-f9ae1d240843","kind":"math","order":61,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{予算申請}\\rightarrow\\text{サーバー発注}\\rightarrow\\text{設置}\\rightarrow\\text{ネットワーク設定}\\rightarrow\\text{数週間から数カ月後に稼働}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a0212119-36e1-4a29-ac30-564904e3533a","kind":"paragraph","order":62,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"だった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_082bbd28-c185-4cb7-a641-743e2695b7e3","kind":"paragraph","order":63,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"EC2では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c07abaae-b6fc-4eab-81fe-463f1b05bfc5","kind":"math","order":64,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{API実行}\\rightarrow\\text{数分後にサーバー利用開始}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0da0a012-e60d-4b42-b8e6-e99c86b650db","kind":"paragraph","order":65,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ変わった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ffe68f8-04ed-4d7e-a389-3741370b7bf1","kind":"paragraph","order":66,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"ITインフラは企業が所有する固定資産から、必要な時だけ借りる変動費へ移行した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9bf88c2c-5bd4-4542-93de-f3e72ae684d7","kind":"paragraph","order":67,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは単なるコスト削減ではない。新しいサービスを始めるために必要だった初期資本と時間が大幅に減り、スタートアップや小規模企業でも巨大インターネットサービスを作れるようになった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_589edd25-6261-4239-9b10-fc5f8871e6b4","kind":"paragraph","order":68,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"4．2008～2010年――GoogleとMicrosoftが参入した","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd5a0174-d780-4745-a4e2-0a083f8e2802","kind":"paragraph","order":69,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"Google――サーバーそのものを隠す","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e1e11db-8923-49b2-8a7a-44452242b88f","kind":"paragraph","order":70,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"Googleは2008年、Google App Engineを発表した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fe473a1c-39e9-4197-a8cd-5f35f5d8fb81","kind":"paragraph","order":71,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"AWS EC2が仮想サーバーを自由に使わせるIaaS型だったのに対し、App EngineはサーバーやOSを利用者から隠し、アプリケーションコードだけを預かるPaaS型だった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c0179ca9-c981-4370-926e-0a28f4932f56","kind":"paragraph","order":72,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"設計思想は次のように異なる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a87d653a-9b7c-404e-aa4f-a1a7e9331594","kind":"paragraph","order":73,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"AWS型Google App 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Native Computing Foundationへ寄贈した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f1992bb-a273-47f9-a9bc-4a2df4631873","kind":"paragraph","order":120,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"各社はマネージドKubernetesを提供した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d9dfea75-25e9-44ef-a32a-f23a2e56ec2c","kind":"paragraph","order":121,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"AWS：Amazon EKS","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b062c515-d23c-4f8b-9e29-3711c6c699a4","kind":"paragraph","order":122,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"Azure：Azure Kubernetes Service","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c5f1f0e1-f793-4450-ba3c-6fc21c50a38c","kind":"paragraph","order":123,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"Google Cloud：Google Kubernetes 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Lambdaを発表した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_791683aa-9e92-46b5-af3e-008cab6f5db2","kind":"paragraph","order":127,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"Lambdaでは、サーバーを常時起動する必要がない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8ee24e8-c130-42c1-8144-ab25af2b3d0e","kind":"paragraph","order":128,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8a652f35-bc27-4764-9239-b62b10b94a29","kind":"math","order":129,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{画像がS3へ保存}\\rightarrow\\text{Lambda起動}\\rightarrow\\text{画像を変換}\\rightarrow\\text{DBへ記録}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_03bd9d8d-b0f6-4871-b720-afda9d41f4a3","kind":"paragraph","order":130,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"という処理を、イベントが発生した時だけ実行できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b284a3da-ad34-4395-89e1-33f66a0acf89","kind":"paragraph","order":131,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"利用者が管理する対象は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_34ae7a57-86a7-4354-be6f-e685b227d44a","kind":"math","order":132,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{物理サーバー}\\rightarrow\\text{仮想マシン}\\rightarrow\\text{コンテナ}\\rightarrow\\text{関数}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_10e4acc9-c4e1-4d5f-8c6f-af875e7e5ef1","kind":"paragraph","order":133,"section_id":"sec_cdf8d183-3c9b-465c-8b7d-2ab8bd32f7f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"と、次第に小さくなっていった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e19b21b5-b73e-41e9-bcd4-6bf569ead90f","kind":"heading","order":134,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 7．Infrastructure as Code――クラウドをコードで管理する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_475fbb15-29ff-41b4-a032-6d747d3b0512","kind":"paragraph","order":135,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"クラウド環境が複雑になると、管理画面を手作業でクリックする方法では再現性がなくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e99cc9a-194f-4f13-82b5-083323e36842","kind":"paragraph","order":136,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこで、サーバー、ネットワーク、データベース、権限をコードとして定義するInfrastructure as Codeが普及した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a1981d38-b862-4a92-bb35-7b02bf6eac2c","kind":"paragraph","order":137,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"代表例は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7dad89b-837f-40ed-8568-284cf8135ca1","kind":"paragraph","order":138,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"AWS CloudFormation、AWS CDK","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_594c344c-ec7a-432a-b052-87eefeff4c99","kind":"paragraph","order":139,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"Azure ARM Template、Bicep","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_79522534-2b05-4d70-baf9-51d42299216a","kind":"paragraph","order":140,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"Google Cloud Infrastructure Manager","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a9464f20-9fa3-4106-8527-6add7a032936","kind":"paragraph","order":141,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"OCI Resource Manager","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_69a83f0b-8515-4f3d-be7b-b86bee8711d7","kind":"paragraph","order":142,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"HashiCorp Terraform","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_98069a42-bfcd-4615-a2c4-9e9393de2649","kind":"paragraph","order":143,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43cea0d4-eff9-427e-a038-66178bfb1710","kind":"paragraph","order":144,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"これにより、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e4ef3684-0731-4117-b3b9-d96c76b8a6c9","kind":"math","order":145,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{インフラ構成}\\rightarrow\\text{コード化}\\rightarrow\\text{レビュー}\\rightarrow\\text{自動テスト}\\rightarrow\\text{自動展開}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9735144d-65b0-4c53-8188-39a704f246a8","kind":"paragraph","order":146,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"が可能になった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d7b73a26-5e5d-445f-9b96-fce0178b85df","kind":"paragraph","order":147,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在、作業AIがクラウド構成を自動生成・変更できるのは、クラウドのほぼすべてがAPI化・コード化されてきたためである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff68e298-fdba-4af7-b4fa-eddaa0b02455","kind":"paragraph","order":148,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"8．2018～2022年――企業の基幹システムとハイブリッドクラウド","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e24bee7e-07a8-4926-9119-eabbfac66848","kind":"paragraph","order":149,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"初期クラウドの中心は、新しく作られるWebサービスだった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1a666950-038b-433e-9c81-9702cd71c959","kind":"paragraph","order":150,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"市場が成熟すると、銀行、政府、製造、医療などが運用する既存の基幹システムを取り込む必要が生まれた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_993f0365-71a6-4eb8-8f4b-6866582142b5","kind":"paragraph","order":151,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこで重要になったのが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0d276fbc-e905-4153-bc3c-0da4876e08de","kind":"paragraph","order":152,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"ハイブリッドクラウド","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_855e60ca-6d33-4563-9158-270abe054c50","kind":"paragraph","order":153,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"専用線","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_49b685d7-4fdf-4b6c-a7a3-125542145945","kind":"paragraph","order":154,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"災害復旧","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_57ae7205-aa96-457c-8217-21d5953f0170","kind":"paragraph","order":155,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"ゼロトラスト","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_82cad13c-8d65-44af-863a-c732e8c0a26b","kind":"paragraph","order":156,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"規制対応","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a9de3ca1-ace2-4ab2-b487-c3929edd9236","kind":"paragraph","order":157,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"データ主権","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a285b69b-18b3-4c23-81b5-e2e422085ed7","kind":"paragraph","order":158,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"エッジコンピューティング","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0880c87d-f632-4771-9220-82ad514c2f93","kind":"paragraph","order":159,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc2ebaa0-05d7-4d35-9dde-b376fa591d6b","kind":"table","order":160,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 会社 | 代表サービス | 役割 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| AWS | Outposts、Local Zones | AWS設備を顧客施設や都市近郊へ配置 |\n| Azure | Azure Arc、Azure Stack | オンプレミスや他クラウドをAzureから管理 |\n| Google | Google Distributed Cloud | Google Cloudを顧客DCやエッジへ展開 |\n| Oracle | Cloud@Customer、Dedicated Region | 顧客施設内へ OCI 環境を設置 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7bc4a9be-8a17-4ceb-a9a5-5e8b1b7613b8","kind":"paragraph","order":161,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"Oracleは、パブリッククラウド、顧客施設内クラウド、ソブリンクラウドを組み合わせるDistributed Cloud戦略を強化している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ea6aa90-6433-4b3d-afdb-829b9e4aa148","kind":"paragraph","order":162,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"クラウドの考え方は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aefa354d-e179-462c-b733-6a87c33d9400","kind":"math","order":163,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{すべてを遠隔データセンターへ移す}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c07a8810-d742-4c44-a92e-3f759083db21","kind":"paragraph","order":164,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"から、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a414830a-0fea-4926-a3bd-ea47e1b196ad","kind":"math","order":165,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{規制・遅延・機密性に応じて最適な場所へ置く}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c5b502f4-06f9-426f-9e95-c6a5c7d1a9d6","kind":"paragraph","order":166,"section_id":"sec_7112294c-9e14-4d79-8afb-3bb880b64b18","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ変わった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eb5cfd5e-bec2-4569-b3b8-fc9abbfd4dd3","kind":"heading","order":167,"section_id":"sec_c147ca6e-6ec8-4901-811d-c27993601721","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 9．クラウドを構成する物理計算資源","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_286bae9d-4bad-4ac7-bf1f-5c2b6e70d6d5","kind":"paragraph","order":168,"section_id":"sec_c147ca6e-6ec8-4901-811d-c27993601721","character_id":null,"markdown":"クラウドは抽象的なソフトウェアサービスに見えるが、その底には巨大な物理設備がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ea42bba-e6a2-49da-b6e2-38588f4f1149","kind":"paragraph","order":169,"section_id":"sec_c147ca6e-6ec8-4901-811d-c27993601721","character_id":null,"markdown":"電力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66b21c14-754b-4a3b-8fc0-0886202d5f71","kind":"paragraph","order":170,"section_id":"sec_c147ca6e-6ec8-4901-811d-c27993601721","character_id":null,"markdown":"すべての計算の出発点である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19a0cb80-74a2-491d-94c9-d3f08c709f87","kind":"paragraph","order":171,"section_id":"sec_c147ca6e-6ec8-4901-811d-c27993601721","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIデータセンターでは、GPUだけでなく、冷却、ネットワーク、電源変換にも大量の電力が必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9681b9d8-3dbf-4b81-904a-67dd6b7966c8","kind":"paragraph","order":172,"section_id":"sec_c147ca6e-6ec8-4901-811d-c27993601721","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPU","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f429d4cb-0da3-4e11-9bb0-f4b8f67e5417","kind":"paragraph","order":173,"section_id":"sec_c147ca6e-6ec8-4901-811d-c27993601721","character_id":null,"markdown":"汎用的な処理を担当する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4bc76682-1347-4d93-b0a3-28e589a104e8","kind":"paragraph","order":174,"section_id":"sec_c147ca6e-6ec8-4901-811d-c27993601721","character_id":null,"markdown":"Webアプリ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fda2f872-2afd-4847-9610-6a18f7d1379c","kind":"paragraph","order":175,"section_id":"sec_c147ca6e-6ec8-4901-811d-c27993601721","character_id":null,"markdown":"データベース","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_852be174-186c-42ce-ad90-3d0bbbf6778b","kind":"paragraph","order":176,"section_id":"sec_c147ca6e-6ec8-4901-811d-c27993601721","character_id":null,"markdown":"OS","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d55980bb-7b44-4676-9991-9cba579d1acd","kind":"paragraph","order":177,"section_id":"sec_c147ca6e-6ec8-4901-811d-c27993601721","character_id":null,"markdown":"API処理","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_30e28a94-4cda-4892-bd59-ca60f7f0991c","kind":"paragraph","order":178,"section_id":"sec_c147ca6e-6ec8-4901-811d-c27993601721","character_id":null,"markdown":"エージェントのツール実行","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_58fc56dc-a70c-484e-bc98-050c5e1a9412","kind":"paragraph","order":179,"section_id":"sec_c147ca6e-6ec8-4901-811d-c27993601721","character_id":null,"markdown":"データ前処理","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bf0d9c03-1993-4306-b6cd-fe88fd9bf994","kind":"paragraph","order":180,"section_id":"sec_c147ca6e-6ec8-4901-811d-c27993601721","character_id":null,"markdown":"スケジューリング","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c297886-febb-4620-b729-586c759cf6be","kind":"paragraph","order":181,"section_id":"sec_c147ca6e-6ec8-4901-811d-c27993601721","character_id":null,"markdown":"などに使われる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12f3b761-1381-4b10-bdff-3d3914836761","kind":"paragraph","order":182,"section_id":"sec_c147ca6e-6ec8-4901-811d-c27993601721","character_id":null,"markdown":"AWS 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Gateway","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_23e0a734-d90a-4300-ad5d-4cb168cdfcb0","kind":"paragraph","order":272,"section_id":"sec_fcadc2b5-0d78-4f61-ae8b-879a42dbbff4","character_id":null,"markdown":"IAM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2a288933-cc39-4583-be34-1141dec3505b","kind":"paragraph","order":273,"section_id":"sec_fcadc2b5-0d78-4f61-ae8b-879a42dbbff4","character_id":null,"markdown":"ログ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84c905a0-215e-4b04-9451-6ec44dbef099","kind":"paragraph","order":274,"section_id":"sec_fcadc2b5-0d78-4f61-ae8b-879a42dbbff4","character_id":null,"markdown":"セキュリティ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_688ed655-e3b4-4548-b53f-4e6684f2d8a9","kind":"paragraph","order":275,"section_id":"sec_fcadc2b5-0d78-4f61-ae8b-879a42dbbff4","character_id":null,"markdown":"長期メモリ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9381e496-53b6-41a3-8421-247f3efc3dac","kind":"paragraph","order":276,"section_id":"sec_fcadc2b5-0d78-4f61-ae8b-879a42dbbff4","character_id":null,"markdown":"の利用も増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb8a77d8-60ff-4dea-a17b-4a3127d2259a","kind":"paragraph","order":277,"section_id":"sec_fcadc2b5-0d78-4f61-ae8b-879a42dbbff4","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI需要はアクセラレーターだけでなく、クラウドの既存サービス全体を引っ張る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bdb2c2ca-19de-4c9e-aeed-3a6d37f5bac0","kind":"heading","order":278,"section_id":"sec_b112523c-6dd0-4447-bb50-e6c10ab52302","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 11．クラウド機能の基本解説と技術難易度","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a08a8c3c-77b5-4904-901b-1d7413fd6304","kind":"paragraph","order":279,"section_id":"sec_b112523c-6dd0-4447-bb50-e6c10ab52302","character_id":null,"markdown":"以下の難易度は、単純なデモではなく、企業の本番環境で安全・安定運用する場合を基準とした独自評価である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5a540124-9bba-4426-9351-4bd5b95e2d7d","kind":"table","order":280,"section_id":"sec_b112523c-6dd0-4447-bb50-e6c10ab52302","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 機能 | 基本的な役割 | 難易度 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| オブジェクトストレージ | ファイルやデータを大量保存 | 1 |\n| 仮想マシン | 任意のOS・ソフトを実行 | 2 |\n| CDN | 世界各地へ高速配信 | 2 |\n| マネージドSQL | DB運用をクラウドへ委任 | 2～3 |\n| サーバーレス | イベント時だけコード実行 | 2～3 |\n| NoSQL | 大量アクセスを水平分散 | 3 |\n| データウェアハウス | 大量データを分析 | 3 |\n| コンテナ | アプリと依存関係をまとめる | 3 |\n| キャッシュ | 頻繁に使うデータを高速化 | 3 |\n| VPC・ネットワーク | 通信経路と分離を設計 | 4 |\n| IAM | 権限と認証を管理 | 4 |\n| IaC・CI/CD | 構成と更新を自動化 | 4 |\n| マルチリージョンDR | 地域障害へ備える | 5 |\n| Kubernetes | 大量コンテナを自動管理 | 5 |\n| ハイブリッドクラウド | 自社DCとクラウドを統合 | 5 |\n| 大規模分散学習 | 数千GPUを同期運用 | 5＋ |\n| AI推論基盤 | 遅延、価格、モデルを最適化 | 4～5 |\n| RAG | 社内データをAIへ接続 | 3～5 |\n| エージェント基盤 | AIへ記憶・権限・ツールを提供 | 5 |\n| AgentOps | AIの判断と行動を監視 | 5 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_89952c2c-ea93-40f9-a144-095a552b6b91","kind":"paragraph","order":281,"section_id":"sec_b112523c-6dd0-4447-bb50-e6c10ab52302","character_id":null,"markdown":"最も誤解されやすいのは、サービスを起動する難易度と、本番運用の難易度の差である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9d32c087-7af9-45c2-bbe1-7ff2cddc314e","kind":"paragraph","order":282,"section_id":"sec_b112523c-6dd0-4447-bb50-e6c10ab52302","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えばデータベースを作るだけなら数分だが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8cd85602-9db6-45f7-8926-6323254b53aa","kind":"paragraph","order":283,"section_id":"sec_b112523c-6dd0-4447-bb50-e6c10ab52302","character_id":null,"markdown":"正しい権限","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f9dd908b-b084-43f0-a1dc-1fb0b52a660a","kind":"paragraph","order":284,"section_id":"sec_b112523c-6dd0-4447-bb50-e6c10ab52302","character_id":null,"markdown":"暗号化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_35c7e3cc-9de6-4354-be04-2c52d1f7a70c","kind":"paragraph","order":285,"section_id":"sec_b112523c-6dd0-4447-bb50-e6c10ab52302","character_id":null,"markdown":"バックアップ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_60831a07-09e2-4d5e-a4ec-a214d694ad0f","kind":"paragraph","order":286,"section_id":"sec_b112523c-6dd0-4447-bb50-e6c10ab52302","character_id":null,"markdown":"障害復旧","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_44f9c1a9-0e61-4601-bb71-16e1f08e59d7","kind":"paragraph","order":287,"section_id":"sec_b112523c-6dd0-4447-bb50-e6c10ab52302","character_id":null,"markdown":"容量設計","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_50c59fd5-05f5-4328-811c-1ebdc27f1c85","kind":"paragraph","order":288,"section_id":"sec_b112523c-6dd0-4447-bb50-e6c10ab52302","character_id":null,"markdown":"個人情報管理","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c14d417-f556-4451-aa38-1e319d92db37","kind":"paragraph","order":289,"section_id":"sec_b112523c-6dd0-4447-bb50-e6c10ab52302","character_id":null,"markdown":"コスト最適化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3b9b06f9-e361-4326-bcd3-f477b65d9da0","kind":"paragraph","order":290,"section_id":"sec_b112523c-6dd0-4447-bb50-e6c10ab52302","character_id":null,"markdown":"まで含めると難易度は大きく上がる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e7ec33d0-a3ef-4ecc-922e-8a8ead72fb10","kind":"paragraph","order":291,"section_id":"sec_b112523c-6dd0-4447-bb50-e6c10ab52302","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI時代には作業AIが設定を支援するため、操作の難しさは下がる。一方、どのリスクを許容し、AIへどこまで権限を渡すかという設計難易度は残る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ec2cb7d4-d94c-441e-b156-88826cf20da9","kind":"heading","order":292,"section_id":"sec_1dacc9d9-8909-4c0f-8669-ab1b3fd70c82","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 12．主要クラウド四社の機能比較","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8ae6826-e214-41ec-b136-3c5ef215d2dd","kind":"table","order":293,"section_id":"sec_1dacc9d9-8909-4c0f-8669-ab1b3fd70c82","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 機能層 | AWS | Azure | Google Cloud | Oracle OCI |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 仮想サーバー | EC2 | Virtual Machines | Compute Engine | Compute、Bare Metal |\n| オブジェクト保存 | S3 | Blob Storage | Cloud Storage | Object Storage |\n| ブロック保存 | EBS | Managed Disks | Persistent Disk | Block Volumes |\n| ファイル保存 | EFS、FSx | Azure Files | Filestore | File Storage |\n| SQL DB | RDS、Aurora | Azure SQL | Cloud SQL、AlloyDB | Autonomous Database |\n| NoSQL | DynamoDB | Cosmos DB | Spanner、Bigtable、Firestore | OCI NoSQL |\n| データ分析 | Redshift | Fabric、Synapse | BigQuery | Autonomous Data Warehouse |\n| コンテナ | ECS、EKS | AKS | GKE | OKE |\n| サーバーレス | Lambda、Fargate | Functions、Container Apps | Cloud Run、Functions | Functions |\n| イベント | SQS、SNS、EventBridge | Service Bus、Event Grid | Pub/Sub、Eventarc | Queue、Events |\n| ネットワーク | VPC | Virtual Network | VPC | VCN |\n| 専用線 | Direct Connect | ExpressRoute | Cloud Interconnect | FastConnect |\n| IAM | AWS IAM | Entra ID、Azure RBAC | Cloud IAM | OCI IAM |\n| 監視 | CloudWatch | Azure Monitor | Cloud Monitoring | OCI Monitoring |\n| IaC | CloudFormation、CDK | ARM、Bicep | Infrastructure Manager | Resource Manager |\n| ハイブリッド | Outposts | Arc、Stack | Distributed Cloud | Cloud@Customer |\n| ML開発 | SageMaker | Azure Machine Learning | Vertex AI系 | OCI Data Science |\n| 生成AI | Bedrock | Microsoft Foundry | Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform | OCI Generative AI |\n| エージェント | AgentCore | Foundry Agent Service | Agent Platform、ADK | OCI AI Agents |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9818bc8-a127-418b-a2e8-3e5f97e04ad3","kind":"paragraph","order":294,"section_id":"sec_1dacc9d9-8909-4c0f-8669-ab1b3fd70c82","character_id":null,"markdown":"各社は現在、仮想マシンからAIエージェント実行環境までを提供している。GoogleはGemini Enterprise Agent PlatformでAgent Studio、ADK、Managed Runtime、Agent Identity、Agent Gateway、Model Armorなどを統合している。Microsoft Foundry Agent Serviceはモデル、データ、ツール、複数段階の判断を一つの基盤で扱う。AWS AgentCoreはRuntime、Memory、Identity、Gateway、Observabilityなどを提供する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2ec0d224-42d9-48b4-9ec7-88f414f2bd03","kind":"heading","order":295,"section_id":"sec_793b8052-e9c1-45bb-95fc-c1369fca1487","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 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Region","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c041f3f-0e57-4ac4-b94c-298eed27af77","kind":"paragraph","order":375,"section_id":"sec_793b8052-e9c1-45bb-95fc-c1369fca1487","character_id":null,"markdown":"金融、政府、通信への強さ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_62c1598c-87e9-4ae1-b73c-2061d12566a8","kind":"paragraph","order":376,"section_id":"sec_793b8052-e9c1-45bb-95fc-c1369fca1487","character_id":null,"markdown":"AWS、Azure、GCP内でOracle DBを提供するマルチクラウド戦略","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ef336fe-6ed1-4708-977b-90584601bfb8","kind":"paragraph","order":377,"section_id":"sec_793b8052-e9c1-45bb-95fc-c1369fca1487","character_id":null,"markdown":"企業の最重要データがOracle Databaseにある場合、AIをデータの近くへ置ける。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_765b1489-c61c-4f07-920c-3dce229ba2f3","kind":"paragraph","order":378,"section_id":"sec_793b8052-e9c1-45bb-95fc-c1369fca1487","character_id":null,"markdown":"弱み","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_97758053-a556-492b-9a8e-ead264297132","kind":"paragraph","order":379,"section_id":"sec_793b8052-e9c1-45bb-95fc-c1369fca1487","character_id":null,"markdown":"開発者・スタートアップ生態系が小さい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_214372f0-de29-496a-bf60-9cd3dd5ba150","kind":"paragraph","order":380,"section_id":"sec_793b8052-e9c1-45bb-95fc-c1369fca1487","character_id":null,"markdown":"一般Webサービスで三大クラウドに劣る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_426dee92-cc2c-4e3a-ac3d-aaa4a8f292b8","kind":"paragraph","order":381,"section_id":"sec_793b8052-e9c1-45bb-95fc-c1369fca1487","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI設備投資に対する財務余力が相対的に小さい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c8316cb-6a92-48e9-ab5b-a2f1b68e1be9","kind":"paragraph","order":382,"section_id":"sec_793b8052-e9c1-45bb-95fc-c1369fca1487","character_id":null,"markdown":"大口AI顧客への契約集中","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c7f7055-9480-40e7-9bd9-5b6273dab91e","kind":"paragraph","order":383,"section_id":"sec_793b8052-e9c1-45bb-95fc-c1369fca1487","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨額の借入・増資が必要","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7cb24ebb-f61d-4ea9-845a-8e893119db77","kind":"paragraph","order":384,"section_id":"sec_793b8052-e9c1-45bb-95fc-c1369fca1487","character_id":null,"markdown":"戦略","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0f520023-99ec-4b0d-84e1-7ce8969f7c16","kind":"paragraph","order":385,"section_id":"sec_793b8052-e9c1-45bb-95fc-c1369fca1487","character_id":null,"markdown":"三大クラウドと正面から全機能で競うのではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_29eaaf25-894d-47fd-9812-26c234bcd68c","kind":"math","order":386,"section_id":"sec_793b8052-e9c1-45bb-95fc-c1369fca1487","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Database}+\\text{ERP}+\\text{AIインフラ}+\\text{主権クラウド}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ffb61fe6-7c4f-4d0a-b0c3-f5a89879379c","kind":"paragraph","order":387,"section_id":"sec_793b8052-e9c1-45bb-95fc-c1369fca1487","character_id":null,"markdown":"に集中する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e43c7def-479f-4ea2-b363-3b34108140a5","kind":"heading","order":388,"section_id":"sec_5fbc557d-ed59-4484-bafe-61629ad13847","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 14．クラウド成熟度比較","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9066d2a1-5eec-47b7-a013-ccd40fcc9782","kind":"paragraph","order":389,"section_id":"sec_5fbc557d-ed59-4484-bafe-61629ad13847","character_id":null,"markdown":"クラウド成熟度は売上規模だけでは決まらない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fcb2f6cb-05e2-459e-b7ad-f61e96f32916","kind":"paragraph","order":390,"section_id":"sec_5fbc557d-ed59-4484-bafe-61629ad13847","character_id":null,"markdown":"評価すべきなのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8cfdcc1a-33fb-4440-b841-6aa7c35fab08","kind":"paragraph","order":391,"section_id":"sec_5fbc557d-ed59-4484-bafe-61629ad13847","character_id":null,"markdown":"サービスの幅","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_272a0103-133e-4864-bfbe-4f2b5b915301","kind":"paragraph","order":392,"section_id":"sec_5fbc557d-ed59-4484-bafe-61629ad13847","character_id":null,"markdown":"大企業の本番運用実績","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc64f1af-ab7f-49fc-b58f-f7c31b659ec1","kind":"paragraph","order":393,"section_id":"sec_5fbc557d-ed59-4484-bafe-61629ad13847","character_id":null,"markdown":"世界展開と規制対応","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_147fdb74-c8ed-4988-9edc-3c88c29a6fa0","kind":"paragraph","order":394,"section_id":"sec_5fbc557d-ed59-4484-bafe-61629ad13847","character_id":null,"markdown":"セキュリティと監査","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3f3f4125-0da2-4809-bf8e-0075d2cb54a5","kind":"paragraph","order":395,"section_id":"sec_5fbc557d-ed59-4484-bafe-61629ad13847","character_id":null,"markdown":"開発者・パートナー生態系","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8110e407-7ca7-45a1-9f8b-b5f73435a3a0","kind":"paragraph","order":396,"section_id":"sec_5fbc557d-ed59-4484-bafe-61629ad13847","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI基盤","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9c8c366f-c51b-4110-8c7e-7b432d48188d","kind":"paragraph","order":397,"section_id":"sec_5fbc557d-ed59-4484-bafe-61629ad13847","character_id":null,"markdown":"財務的な持続力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_df8e4940-ddc4-4243-a738-9451a9e348c6","kind":"paragraph","order":398,"section_id":"sec_5fbc557d-ed59-4484-bafe-61629ad13847","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c11c028-f1e6-487d-9dee-336aa27be8ab","kind":"paragraph","order":399,"section_id":"sec_5fbc557d-ed59-4484-bafe-61629ad13847","character_id":null,"markdown":"総合成熟度","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bdc01126-3c3f-48bb-8897-075cfacbb1fc","kind":"table","order":400,"section_id":"sec_5fbc557d-ed59-4484-bafe-61629ad13847","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 階層 | 企業 | 評価 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| S | AWS | 最も完成された汎用クラウド |\n| S | Azure | 企業IT統合ではAWSと同等以上 |\n| A | Google Cloud | データ・AIでは最先端 |\n| B | Oracle OCI | DB・基幹システム・分散クラウドに強い |\n| C | CoreWeave | 最も成熟したAI専用クラウド |\n| C | Nebius | AIフルスタックを急速構築 |\n| D | IREN | 電力・DCからクラウドへ移行中 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bbc371c8-b520-47ef-b498-0b8dcdbd213f","kind":"paragraph","order":401,"section_id":"sec_5fbc557d-ed59-4484-bafe-61629ad13847","character_id":null,"markdown":"総合順位は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_61e5a403-ca1b-45f1-8413-25116f65aa45","kind":"math","order":402,"section_id":"sec_5fbc557d-ed59-4484-bafe-61629ad13847","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{AWS}\\approx\\text{Azure}>\\text{Google Cloud}>\\text{OCI}>\\text{CoreWeave}>\\text{Nebius}>\\text{IREN}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_da6755fb-6639-4806-9f7e-fc1bfa63bab6","kind":"paragraph","order":403,"section_id":"sec_5fbc557d-ed59-4484-bafe-61629ad13847","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a6e5cb2b-a6c9-4279-9c01-ecfaec567243","kind":"paragraph","order":404,"section_id":"sec_5fbc557d-ed59-4484-bafe-61629ad13847","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、用途別では順位が変わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_095df853-e7d7-4a37-8dcb-0105db457f0a","kind":"table","order":405,"section_id":"sec_5fbc557d-ed59-4484-bafe-61629ad13847","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 用途 | 最有力 |\n| --- | --- |\n| 汎用クラウド | AWS |\n| Microsoft中心の企業IT | Azure |\n| データ分析・Gemini・TPU | Google Cloud |\n| Oracle Database・ERP | OCI |\n| 大規模NVIDIA GPU運用 | CoreWeave |\n| AI開発フルスタック | Nebius |\n| 電力・コロケーション・専用DC | IREN |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bb795257-14c7-4386-ab23-a583821978dc","kind":"heading","order":406,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 15．最新決算から見るクラウドの現在地","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_91aadf1e-9eb3-48ed-8cf2-c5962ef7d774","kind":"paragraph","order":407,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"各社の開示範囲は異なるため、単純比較には注意が必要である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a9c8b80d-62fb-40a6-bc76-370e4f10a9e6","kind":"paragraph","order":408,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"AWSは比較的純粋なクラウドセグメント","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_28854e1d-aa28-471d-95d5-c3ee7754e21a","kind":"paragraph","order":409,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Microsoft Intelligent CloudにはAzure以外も含む","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56a5196e-a88a-46c0-a74e-dde48e0b0e28","kind":"paragraph","order":410,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Google CloudにはGCP、Workspace、TPU販売を含む","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12d15a91-2d66-4474-be04-d0007e7cdaf7","kind":"paragraph","order":411,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Oracle CloudにはIaaSとSaaSを含む","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b4ce1b43-4aea-4c88-89b4-46316eb88cbf","kind":"paragraph","order":412,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"AWS――Q2 2026","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12fa0e3f-5713-4492-85eb-69ad5f9beeff","kind":"table","order":413,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 項目 | 実績 |\n| --- | --- |\n| AWS売上高 | 422億ドル |\n| 前年同期比 | ＋36.7％ |\n| AWS営業利益 | 166億ドル |\n| 営業利益率 | 約39.4％ |\n| AI事業ランレート | 250億ドル超 |\n| チップ事業ランレート | 250億ドル超 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d259d68f-cb7d-4604-ae73-e23faae371ac","kind":"paragraph","order":414,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"AWSは18四半期ぶりの高成長となった。Amazon全体の売上高は2,006億ドル、営業利益は275億ドルだった。AWSの売上は全社の約21％だが、営業利益の約61％を生み出した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5708c66-65ab-42de-9b07-36f01bda2146","kind":"paragraph","order":415,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"AmazonのQ3ガイダンスは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bfe5011c-03b9-41ba-802d-c972a7f0c33c","kind":"paragraph","order":416,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"売上高1,970億～2,020億ドル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5f699c59-a99f-4813-9c06-509a5349d4ae","kind":"paragraph","order":417,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"営業利益225億～265億ドル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b7a8e9e2-5a0a-4665-b44a-74ff62676518","kind":"paragraph","order":418,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。Prime Dayの時期移動を除けば、売上成長率は見かけより約4ポイント高いと会社は説明した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_412966f6-5d80-455d-986f-e9a55a064e3f","kind":"paragraph","order":419,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"カンファレンスコールでは2026年の現金設備投資計画を2,000億ドルから2,200億ドルへ引き上げた。メモリ価格上昇も増額要因であり、それでも2026～2027年の需要をすべて満たせないと説明している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c4171b2-0161-49d7-9461-71c0b72e70ec","kind":"paragraph","order":420,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"評価","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c1fcd448-ec37-42a2-8c02-843bb2d2a323","kind":"paragraph","order":421,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI設備投資はすでに売上と利益へ変わっている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ffd4db4-6430-405f-888a-23113d2637ca","kind":"paragraph","order":422,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方、直近12カ月FCFは76億ドルの赤字であり、AI投資の回収が始まった以上に、次の設備投資が速く増えている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c370c607-f972-45b4-9a81-5d3717755fe2","kind":"paragraph","order":423,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Microsoft――FY2026 Q4","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_34e4d50a-24d6-4e32-8a72-3806644b2dc2","kind":"table","order":424,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 項目 | 実績 |\n| --- | --- |\n| 全社売上高 | 900億ドル |\n| Intelligent Cloud | 393億ドル |\n| Intelligent Cloud成長率 | ＋32％ |\n| Azure等成長率 | ＋43％ |\n| Microsoft Cloud売上高 | 593億ドル |\n| 商用RPO | 6,780億ドル |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7b911f88-0f23-441d-97d5-05d978701469","kind":"paragraph","order":425,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"MicrosoftはAzure単独の売上高・利益を公開していないが、Azure成長率は43％に加速した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6a3fe137-36fa-465e-9b34-4fdf6fded469","kind":"paragraph","order":426,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"次四半期のFY2027 Q1では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff72ff92-c6eb-46a1-a08e-42e91beadd6f","kind":"paragraph","order":427,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"全社売上高898.5億～909.5億ドル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fa6fa8b7-7140-4f4d-9404-b8adf9a2af72","kind":"paragraph","order":428,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intelligent Cloud409.5億～412.5億ドル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_09363b83-2f3c-4896-afe8-19d5a45bf22e","kind":"paragraph","order":429,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Azure成長率約45％、為替一定","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d363a1d3-ed73-439d-ba7a-31e03d847cfe","kind":"paragraph","order":430,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"を予想している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3d38bc63-43ab-45ed-a2ce-1316b6380fe4","kind":"paragraph","order":431,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Q4の設備投資は410億ドルで、約3分の2がGPUやCPUなど比較的短命な設備だった。Q1は500億ドルを超える設備投資が示唆されている。一方でQ4のFCFは196億ドルを維持した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_36faa290-95e5-43b4-8945-568a20e9021b","kind":"paragraph","order":432,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"評価","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6a44f1fb-2377-4041-a917-18dc65fad526","kind":"paragraph","order":433,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"現時点で最もバランスがよい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a7269917-f372-4a1a-8d67-f6c685ea9f94","kind":"paragraph","order":434,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Azureの高成長、一般企業への需要分散、Copilot収益化、巨額設備投資を行いながらFCF黒字を維持している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a722117a-ebe0-477d-bd66-fff3154f29c6","kind":"paragraph","order":435,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Google Cloud――Q2 2026","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_50cceac2-999a-4288-b320-404942381149","kind":"table","order":436,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 項目 | 実績 |\n| --- | --- |\n| Google Cloud売上高 | 248億ドル |\n| 前年同期比 | ＋82％ |\n| 営業利益 | 88億ドル |\n| 営業利益率 | 約35.6％ |\n| 受注残 | 5,140億ドル |\n| Q2設備投資 | 449億ドル |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0a507351-49ae-48e2-88f2-9701f04fe078","kind":"paragraph","order":437,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Google Cloudは、企業AIソリューション、AIインフラ、通常のGCPサービスによって成長した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b8129ee3-c878-4e1e-87bd-c5e940038708","kind":"paragraph","order":438,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただしGoogle Cloud売上には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_02af55ae-d147-46bc-a9b5-b11b90c1158f","kind":"paragraph","order":439,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"GCP","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_242a235f-0c7e-413f-8105-86ae704366cf","kind":"paragraph","order":440,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Google Workspace","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b1b956b-25ac-4c10-be4e-bdcad4a600f5","kind":"paragraph","order":441,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"TPUシステム販売","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_52cea9ed-de51-4e63-9e61-6b2122c931e7","kind":"paragraph","order":442,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"が含まれる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6b5a847-ae32-4c53-b4e7-559597f52332","kind":"paragraph","order":443,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって82％をAWSの36.7％やAzureの43％と直接比較してはいけない。それでもGoogleは、TPU販売を除いてもCloud成長が加速したと説明している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7ac4574-df6f-44ad-ab27-cdc4a6615c73","kind":"paragraph","order":444,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Alphabetは2026年設備投資計画を1,950億～2,050億ドルへ引き上げ、2027年もさらに増加させる方針を示した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c42f4e90-7906-44aa-863b-89587cd16ae8","kind":"paragraph","order":445,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"ガイダンス","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3e0ea3ef-ebc0-489e-ab8a-78cbc0cc9083","kind":"paragraph","order":446,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"GoogleはCloud売上の具体的な次四半期レンジを出していない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b4335fb-3d22-46b0-85bd-0b1083077fe2","kind":"paragraph","order":447,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_61e8ba3d-ac6c-4732-bea2-b3e6dbb8f720","kind":"paragraph","order":448,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Cloud需要は引き続き強い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d63fca2f-8a11-4bf6-82c9-e2115e576191","kind":"paragraph","order":449,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"TPU外販は今後増加","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_37a30ffe-a24a-45f8-b9de-9dac84198088","kind":"paragraph","order":450,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"供給不足を補うため第三者容量を利用","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2bfb0d4d-40e1-49bd-87e2-7999ffd978ce","kind":"paragraph","order":451,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"その結果、短期的に利益率が圧迫される可能性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_37e9af97-72a0-4d41-abae-800eed6cf9a0","kind":"paragraph","order":452,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"を示している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b8ac815-77ab-4ff3-bd93-44881764492c","kind":"paragraph","order":453,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"評価","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b4c6aeef-052c-4d22-aebd-f5c244148be1","kind":"paragraph","order":454,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"需要面では非常に強い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d956ac3a-cbf7-4e01-aa3b-93bdce974907","kind":"paragraph","order":455,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"問題は、TPU販売による売上変動、外部容量の利用コスト、設備投資によるFCF圧迫である。Q2のAlphabet FCFは約59億ドルの赤字となった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_80abc59f-65c5-41d5-9440-2be5d371d983","kind":"paragraph","order":456,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Oracle――FY2026 Q4","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aee3fecb-7b02-40af-9175-1b32f8ccb1c5","kind":"table","order":457,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 項目 | 実績 |\n| --- | --- |\n| 全社売上高 | 192億ドル |\n| Cloud売上高 | 99億ドル |\n| Cloud成長率 | ＋47％ |\n| OCI・IaaS | 58億ドル |\n| IaaS成長率 | ＋93％ |\n| RPO | 6,380億ドル |\n| FY2026 FCF | ▲237億ドル |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2ef3fe52-3607-48f7-8156-85e35e4bd6d5","kind":"paragraph","order":458,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"OCI需要そのものは非常に強い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fcec45bc-b2a4-4e29-acbb-ca58387cfb9e","kind":"paragraph","order":459,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Q1 FY2027の会社予想は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4709245c-2259-47c0-ba81-089aa7e15ed1","kind":"paragraph","order":460,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"全社売上高＋27～29％","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1cc37471-d731-4768-aa56-58792e6890ad","kind":"paragraph","order":461,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Cloud売上高＋58～64％","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_896f0a29-58e9-4716-89a1-3fb9cdbde1b4","kind":"paragraph","order":462,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"FY2027通期売上高900億ドル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e85deffc-8d97-4025-8876-2ec6cdd64f2c","kind":"paragraph","order":463,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b67a01c7-672e-4519-a4db-b3c54d215412","kind":"paragraph","order":464,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしOracleはFY2026に430億ドルの債務、50億ドルの株式を調達した。FY2027も約400億ドルを債務と株式で調達する計画である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7df072ea-0251-46c9-97b1-4ee587aaf5fc","kind":"paragraph","order":465,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"評価","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5feb4e1a-b9d1-4ef9-b565-fd1f95754e45","kind":"paragraph","order":466,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Oracleの問題は需要不足ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd2d2f58-84fb-478d-9fdf-d830c051fc44","kind":"math","order":467,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{需要が強すぎる一方、自社キャッシュだけでは設備を作れない}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_773ed943-a4d6-462a-bec6-08baef1731fa","kind":"paragraph","order":468,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことにある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b445320-b4bf-4563-a0ad-7950c56490c4","kind":"paragraph","order":469,"section_id":"sec_bea5ff62-6944-44ad-8761-448ca25845bf","character_id":null,"markdown":"成長率はハイパースケーラー級だが、資金調達リスクはネオクラウドに近い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0880f26f-ff04-4f58-a725-da42d03cc51d","kind":"heading","order":470,"section_id":"sec_16b7a5f8-7d10-4961-b58b-c6e6bef33b6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 16．ネオクラウドとは何か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_10d7cdef-a969-4a86-9036-676529a8124d","kind":"paragraph","order":471,"section_id":"sec_16b7a5f8-7d10-4961-b58b-c6e6bef33b6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"ネオクラウドは、AI計算へ特化した新しいクラウド事業者である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_824e03bf-5138-404f-b9ba-ee84cb2c9c02","kind":"paragraph","order":472,"section_id":"sec_16b7a5f8-7d10-4961-b58b-c6e6bef33b6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"通常のクラウドが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b96814ef-1e8c-4564-928a-fd390561cc83","kind":"paragraph","order":473,"section_id":"sec_16b7a5f8-7d10-4961-b58b-c6e6bef33b6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPU","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a625f010-1079-49ca-bf52-97c69993b07c","kind":"paragraph","order":474,"section_id":"sec_16b7a5f8-7d10-4961-b58b-c6e6bef33b6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"DB","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d38cca5e-09c6-46c2-90c2-f04efbf9bf03","kind":"paragraph","order":475,"section_id":"sec_16b7a5f8-7d10-4961-b58b-c6e6bef33b6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"ストレージ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f693a427-9485-40c2-846b-a982b812bdd0","kind":"paragraph","order":476,"section_id":"sec_16b7a5f8-7d10-4961-b58b-c6e6bef33b6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"業務アプリ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_09e988f3-6053-452b-b101-6595968341ec","kind":"paragraph","order":477,"section_id":"sec_16b7a5f8-7d10-4961-b58b-c6e6bef33b6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"認証","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b7b9503-f5b6-4d1c-8a21-e6c7f202d41e","kind":"paragraph","order":478,"section_id":"sec_16b7a5f8-7d10-4961-b58b-c6e6bef33b6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c5e04ce1-97bd-4fae-88f7-0c6dba363cfa","kind":"paragraph","order":479,"section_id":"sec_16b7a5f8-7d10-4961-b58b-c6e6bef33b6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"を広く提供するのに対し、ネオクラウドは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6bf4c285-548e-4052-b292-fe4e47848660","kind":"math","order":480,"section_id":"sec_16b7a5f8-7d10-4961-b58b-c6e6bef33b6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{ネオクラウド}=\\text{電力}+\\text{GPU}+\\text{高速ネットワーク}+\\text{AI向けストレージ}+\\text{クラスタ運用}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dadf0d1d-5e1b-43b3-bc07-a15e53e7f370","kind":"paragraph","order":481,"section_id":"sec_16b7a5f8-7d10-4961-b58b-c6e6bef33b6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"に集中する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_778e45b0-2e65-4bcf-8708-28db7a158a04","kind":"paragraph","order":482,"section_id":"sec_16b7a5f8-7d10-4961-b58b-c6e6bef33b6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"通常クラウドとの違い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12ec33d8-7b0b-444c-80d4-89cd1cb75a8a","kind":"table","order":483,"section_id":"sec_16b7a5f8-7d10-4961-b58b-c6e6bef33b6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 特徴 | 通常クラウド | ネオクラウド |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 顧客基盤 | 顧客数が非常に多い | 少数の大口顧客 |\n| サービス範囲 | 数百種類のサービス | AI計算へ集中 |\n| 契約・課金形態 | 従量課金が中心 | 長期・専有契約が多い |\n| 投資原資 | 自社FCFで投資可能 | 借入、リース、増資へ依存 |\n| リスク分散 | 顧客が分散 | 顧客集中が大きい |\n| 収益構造 | 高いソフトウェア利益 | 設備・金利・減価償却の影響が大きい |\n| 役割 | 総合企業基盤 | AI計算工場 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6d3a3c33-eebf-421a-9129-196f7f7f38d7","kind":"paragraph","order":484,"section_id":"sec_16b7a5f8-7d10-4961-b58b-c6e6bef33b6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"ネオクラウドはAWSなどの競合であると同時に、ハイパースケーラー自身が容量不足時に利用する外部供給業者でもある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dc90faef-1709-4145-9a8c-ec59feab4651","kind":"heading","order":485,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 17．CoreWeave――最も完成したGPU計算工場","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_38602e5e-0a46-43d8-8c1f-e617eeb2098f","kind":"paragraph","order":486,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"CoreWeaveは暗号資産向けGPU運用から始まり、2020年頃からAI・HPC・レンダリング向けGPUクラウドへ転換した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_79327257-82b3-484c-b3c2-608ea740fe56","kind":"paragraph","order":487,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ab29d7d3-44bb-4338-b89f-5e5817b904b5","kind":"paragraph","order":488,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPUベアメタル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a9e3c74e-b5d6-47b4-aa9b-4e862eb49ab8","kind":"paragraph","order":489,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"Managed Kubernetes","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8955929-587b-4c74-901b-ddc433191a0b","kind":"paragraph","order":490,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"Slurm","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8bb0b9ca-377a-4676-a265-06e2e4680a96","kind":"paragraph","order":491,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"InfiniBand","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d0a0263a-5bd9-4ee1-b44c-da59743e8bd6","kind":"paragraph","order":492,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPUDirect RDMA","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e9a66c92-dec9-4154-85a2-1116cce8777b","kind":"paragraph","order":493,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"高速ストレージ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_72c55566-6c98-43d5-8174-4a651efdba72","kind":"paragraph","order":494,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"学習基盤","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b79d3fc6-11b2-49c2-bff7-dcf48430d6a3","kind":"paragraph","order":495,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"本番推論","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8706ef36-180d-4a9b-946a-24e98646689d","kind":"paragraph","order":496,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"モデル・実験管理","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8a00fdd-8cbb-4f1a-8286-a702153ec2a6","kind":"paragraph","order":497,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"Weights & Biases","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c2fbe9f3-6223-4725-a2b8-1cb936d804df","kind":"paragraph","order":498,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"まで提供する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1656411b-cc7c-43d1-80b5-c70cf86c2c3c","kind":"paragraph","order":499,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"CoreWeave Kubernetes Serviceは、AI向けベアメタルKubernetes、GPUドライバー、高速ネットワーク、ストレージを統合している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6ce4228-9486-4ba5-94ea-eca653654a09","kind":"paragraph","order":500,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"最新決算","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_83b6724d-033f-4c07-8efc-1028e6878cbc","kind":"paragraph","order":501,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年Q1は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_40a7b1ec-c5a0-4810-b8c7-8c6a4c587d8e","kind":"table","order":502,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 項目 | 数値 |\n| --- | --- |\n| 売上高 | 20.78億ドル |\n| 前年同期比 | ＋112％ |\n| 調整後EBITDA | 11.57億ドル |\n| EBITDA率 | 56％ |\n| 営業損失 | ▲1.44億ドル |\n| 金利費用 | 5.36億ドル |\n| 純損失 | ▲7.40億ドル |\n| 受注残 | 994億ドル |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6d9547b4-9007-4d8d-a892-0f4f7930e0a4","kind":"paragraph","order":503,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"だった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0245213-d86b-4d86-96db-d041c6d1bfd3","kind":"paragraph","order":504,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"Q2売上高ガイダンスは24.5億～26億ドル、通期売上高は120億～130億ドルを維持した。2026年設備投資は部材価格上昇を受け、少なくとも310億ドル規模を見込む。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_11f1197f-df27-4e2a-9b0d-ebdd7f91ffbf","kind":"paragraph","order":505,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"役割","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d1eccb7-129e-4016-b047-87272d8be2d2","kind":"math","order":506,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{CoreWeave}=\\text{世界最大級のNVIDIA GPU学習・推論専門クラウド}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a6bd1548-8f01-4240-b61a-106620671ad5","kind":"paragraph","order":507,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d6a1ffbb-c211-40fa-bd99-cf9af70b0d5d","kind":"paragraph","order":508,"section_id":"sec_2ee3ae32-31ce-4911-9fd8-194c510e5155","character_id":null,"markdown":"強みは大規模GPU運用の深さ。弱みは借入、リース、金利負担、顧客集中である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cda24913-a593-4055-9280-b556510b7e61","kind":"heading","order":509,"section_id":"sec_b64cf3e1-2415-478b-8251-899626238f53","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 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Search","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9a62ec82-9a29-4991-aa0f-084658b78ab5","kind":"paragraph","order":523,"section_id":"sec_b64cf3e1-2415-478b-8251-899626238f53","character_id":null,"markdown":"などである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b146f7e-ec9c-4545-a8f5-c60659799387","kind":"paragraph","order":524,"section_id":"sec_b64cf3e1-2415-478b-8251-899626238f53","character_id":null,"markdown":"最新決算","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_49144b6e-b811-448d-a014-a6829cb8dfcc","kind":"paragraph","order":525,"section_id":"sec_b64cf3e1-2415-478b-8251-899626238f53","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年Q1は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c9561f5-1b2a-42d3-9794-2014866edba0","kind":"table","order":526,"section_id":"sec_b64cf3e1-2415-478b-8251-899626238f53","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 項目 | 数値 |\n| --- | --- |\n| 売上高 | 3.99億ドル |\n| 前年同期比 | ＋684％ |\n| 調整後EBITDA | 1.295億ドル |\n| 調整後純損失 | ▲1.003億ドル |\n| 減価償却 | 2.12億ドル |\n| Q1設備投資 | 24.73億ドル |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0b5472b5-29e7-4b05-a63b-6cfacdbda5ad","kind":"paragraph","order":527,"section_id":"sec_b64cf3e1-2415-478b-8251-899626238f53","character_id":null,"markdown":"だった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ee5c9f51-1976-4a24-a4a6-34432b368ff5","kind":"paragraph","order":528,"section_id":"sec_b64cf3e1-2415-478b-8251-899626238f53","character_id":null,"markdown":"Nebiusは2026年設備投資計画を200億～250億ドルへ引き上げ、新たに米ペンシルベニア州で最大1.2GWのAIファクトリー用電力と土地を確保した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b81e08a4-fd4c-4f1d-9d58-b0f32cfa4ff6","kind":"paragraph","order":529,"section_id":"sec_b64cf3e1-2415-478b-8251-899626238f53","character_id":null,"markdown":"役割","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5af1430f-216d-4dbc-8e5f-df4d9209e141","kind":"math","order":530,"section_id":"sec_b64cf3e1-2415-478b-8251-899626238f53","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{Nebius}=\\text{GPUだけでなく、データ・学習・推論・エージェントまで提供するAI専用総合クラウド}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ab40716a-2359-4d14-991b-e01b54ed1d3d","kind":"paragraph","order":531,"section_id":"sec_b64cf3e1-2415-478b-8251-899626238f53","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1b505fb8-d4e3-4b8c-b12f-c9451f6f99c0","kind":"paragraph","order":532,"section_id":"sec_b64cf3e1-2415-478b-8251-899626238f53","character_id":null,"markdown":"三社の中では最もAWSやGCPに近い製品構造を目指している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_670b8d7f-a81b-45b8-b61e-c72ef66a5cca","kind":"paragraph","order":533,"section_id":"sec_b64cf3e1-2415-478b-8251-899626238f53","character_id":null,"markdown":"弱点は運用歴、企業認証、地域数、急速な設備拡張、減価償却負担である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c1e063d6-eddf-441f-8db2-8940212b3f6e","kind":"heading","order":534,"section_id":"sec_ec285499-a6fb-41f0-a1cd-3388fa09eb6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 19．IREN――電力とデータセンターからAIクラウドへ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b8fd18c-1c32-4290-80dd-6628cf97ab70","kind":"paragraph","order":535,"section_id":"sec_ec285499-a6fb-41f0-a1cd-3388fa09eb6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"IRENはBitcoinマイニングで築いた、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_744ba6bd-5e72-4b0b-9dd2-68c92436d490","kind":"paragraph","order":536,"section_id":"sec_ec285499-a6fb-41f0-a1cd-3388fa09eb6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"電力接続","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd8bfbd0-ab0d-41ab-942f-9a722b44e860","kind":"paragraph","order":537,"section_id":"sec_ec285499-a6fb-41f0-a1cd-3388fa09eb6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"土地","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5cc1fd1e-cee5-4b6a-8993-88fe15b09981","kind":"paragraph","order":538,"section_id":"sec_ec285499-a6fb-41f0-a1cd-3388fa09eb6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"変電設備","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e57aaef-f77d-4952-bdaf-8e4f9c0f5adb","kind":"paragraph","order":539,"section_id":"sec_ec285499-a6fb-41f0-a1cd-3388fa09eb6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"データセンター建設","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f79db105-a278-4a97-b7ed-d66b61a5f70e","kind":"paragraph","order":540,"section_id":"sec_ec285499-a6fb-41f0-a1cd-3388fa09eb6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"24時間運用","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_70501aa1-12e3-43aa-895d-d2622551137f","kind":"paragraph","order":541,"section_id":"sec_ec285499-a6fb-41f0-a1cd-3388fa09eb6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"をAIへ転用している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d39b36d2-b4aa-4a74-8076-0a79d8874a50","kind":"paragraph","order":542,"section_id":"sec_ec285499-a6fb-41f0-a1cd-3388fa09eb6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf7cf0e8-e8ac-48d1-9f12-fe4fc0cf1cb5","kind":"paragraph","order":543,"section_id":"sec_ec285499-a6fb-41f0-a1cd-3388fa09eb6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Bare Metal GPU","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9d0f15d1-9fdf-4900-81c1-53e171f9bd36","kind":"paragraph","order":544,"section_id":"sec_ec285499-a6fb-41f0-a1cd-3388fa09eb6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI 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|","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_58d4200d-562f-4526-954f-b8d9dafe392a","kind":"paragraph","order":553,"section_id":"sec_ec285499-a6fb-41f0-a1cd-3388fa09eb6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"だった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e0785312-7c1c-4248-ab74-bbd76c0e443a","kind":"paragraph","order":554,"section_id":"sec_ec285499-a6fb-41f0-a1cd-3388fa09eb6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"同社は2026年末までに480MWのAI Cloud容量を稼働し、契約済みARR31億ドル、年末ARR37億ドルを目標としている。2027年には約1.21GWを建設中である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_771a704a-f368-4bc7-a4c5-10633e43604f","kind":"paragraph","order":555,"section_id":"sec_ec285499-a6fb-41f0-a1cd-3388fa09eb6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、ARR目標は現在の会計売上ではない。GPUの納入、データセンター完成、顧客検収、課金開始が必要である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7b4a8742-11b2-4c85-8394-0006c13bcf9c","kind":"paragraph","order":556,"section_id":"sec_ec285499-a6fb-41f0-a1cd-3388fa09eb6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"IRENはMirantis買収によってKubernetes、OpenStack、オーケストレーション、企業サポートを補強しようとしている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19ace301-4dd6-48d1-8fd9-02b29f7e9683","kind":"paragraph","order":557,"section_id":"sec_ec285499-a6fb-41f0-a1cd-3388fa09eb6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"役割","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f33ed281-76f3-4c7d-a8eb-d4798ee6a222","kind":"math","order":558,"section_id":"sec_ec285499-a6fb-41f0-a1cd-3388fa09eb6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{IREN}=\\text{電力・土地・データセンター・GPUを統合したAIインフラ供給会社}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd44ec7f-45d2-406b-933a-e3c2ebc2806f","kind":"paragraph","order":559,"section_id":"sec_ec285499-a6fb-41f0-a1cd-3388fa09eb6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3a2115d-921e-4c53-ab8f-decf0681bc0e","kind":"paragraph","order":560,"section_id":"sec_ec285499-a6fb-41f0-a1cd-3388fa09eb6d","character_id":null,"markdown":"強みは物理資産。弱みはソフトウェア成熟度、実売上と将来計画の距離、資金調達リスクである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2e1daf0f-62e7-4d9b-a0eb-92a256c54a0d","kind":"heading","order":561,"section_id":"sec_4577644a-97f5-45ad-8756-498c9c6864bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 20．ネオクラウド三銃士の機能比較","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cac07f14-cc63-46e7-93f1-70f91f65249d","kind":"table","order":562,"section_id":"sec_4577644a-97f5-45ad-8756-498c9c6864bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 機能 | CoreWeave | Nebius | IREN |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| NVIDIA GPU | ◎ | ◎ | ◎ |\n| 大規模学習 | ◎ | ◎ | ○～◎ |\n| 本番推論 | ◎ | ◎ | ○ |\n| Bare Metal | ◎ | ◎ | ◎ |\n| InfiniBand | ◎ | ◎ | ◎ |\n| Managed Kubernetes | ◎ | ◎ | △→○ |\n| Managed Slurm | ◎ | ◎ | △ |\n| GPU自動復旧 | ◎ | ◎ | △ |\n| Object Storage | ○～◎ | ◎ | △ |\n| 高速共有ストレージ | ◎ | ◎ | ○ |\n| データベース | 限定的 | PostgreSQLあり | ほぼなし |\n| MLOps | W&B中心に◎ | MLflowなど◎ | △ |\n| Serverless AI | ○ | ◎ | △ |\n| Agent基盤 | 拡大中 | 拡大中 | 初期 |\n| コロケーション | △ | △ | ◎ |\n| Build-to-Suit | △ | △ | ◎ |\n| 電力・土地 | ○ | ○ | ◎ |\n| 企業向け総合性 | △ | ○ | △ |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_763d49c0-b7f1-4f9a-9dc3-745fcc393bc1","kind":"paragraph","order":563,"section_id":"sec_4577644a-97f5-45ad-8756-498c9c6864bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"三社の完成形","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_65fc1344-cbdd-413a-b6a7-ee8ee504c190","kind":"math","order":564,"section_id":"sec_4577644a-97f5-45ad-8756-498c9c6864bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{CoreWeave}=\\text{完成したGPU計算工場}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8d1212d-2b03-4f2b-a22f-f25bb83c59e8","kind":"math","order":565,"section_id":"sec_4577644a-97f5-45ad-8756-498c9c6864bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{Nebius}=\\text{AI開発者向け総合クラウド}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_095c07fa-1e89-4c9b-9311-b66777b001c4","kind":"math","order":566,"section_id":"sec_4577644a-97f5-45ad-8756-498c9c6864bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{IREN}=\\text{電力・DC資産からクラウドへ上がる企業}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ccf1e4d-8c9e-4770-a107-ef909dac5f5b","kind":"heading","order":567,"section_id":"sec_eea47c73-b2b9-416f-832d-9235cff2c632","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 21．ネオクラウドは一般企業にも広がるのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8765b042-f2ac-4cf1-9f3a-d72c93b6bd2e","kind":"paragraph","order":568,"section_id":"sec_eea47c73-b2b9-416f-832d-9235cff2c632","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在の中心は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_967c5940-90bd-48b0-8c13-ffa528da605e","kind":"paragraph","order":569,"section_id":"sec_eea47c73-b2b9-416f-832d-9235cff2c632","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI研究所","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_394bbf92-3036-4e80-a9ba-0977d31d07ed","kind":"paragraph","order":570,"section_id":"sec_eea47c73-b2b9-416f-832d-9235cff2c632","character_id":null,"markdown":"基盤モデル企業","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_20112dda-a719-4f89-8d50-18735ec4d372","kind":"paragraph","order":571,"section_id":"sec_eea47c73-b2b9-416f-832d-9235cff2c632","character_id":null,"markdown":"コーディングAI","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43065ca3-fe1b-462d-ab6c-8865262a98d7","kind":"paragraph","order":572,"section_id":"sec_eea47c73-b2b9-416f-832d-9235cff2c632","character_id":null,"markdown":"創薬","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0559e899-9238-406c-895e-d2fc41c906ca","kind":"paragraph","order":573,"section_id":"sec_eea47c73-b2b9-416f-832d-9235cff2c632","character_id":null,"markdown":"ロボット","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6eac404f-41fa-4822-83c1-c3eed33d45b9","kind":"paragraph","order":574,"section_id":"sec_eea47c73-b2b9-416f-832d-9235cff2c632","character_id":null,"markdown":"映像生成","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7bec3d87-787a-48e7-b677-d9f8e6ef1677","kind":"paragraph","order":575,"section_id":"sec_eea47c73-b2b9-416f-832d-9235cff2c632","character_id":null,"markdown":"シミュレーション","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_05a700d2-ec2e-4d6d-9b33-b19b432ffe8b","kind":"paragraph","order":576,"section_id":"sec_eea47c73-b2b9-416f-832d-9235cff2c632","character_id":null,"markdown":"などの研究・開発用途である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4e725303-c54e-456c-979f-fbe6ab0ebef5","kind":"paragraph","order":577,"section_id":"sec_eea47c73-b2b9-416f-832d-9235cff2c632","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし市場は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c6d935b7-63fe-4590-b7b5-7e887f6d14b8","kind":"math","order":578,"section_id":"sec_eea47c73-b2b9-416f-832d-9235cff2c632","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{モデルを作る学習}\\rightarrow\\text{企業や消費者が毎日使う推論}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b3e36e1d-2929-4db1-86aa-59ec71d6a372","kind":"paragraph","order":579,"section_id":"sec_eea47c73-b2b9-416f-832d-9235cff2c632","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ移っている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1b7ea0c7-18bc-499c-8425-2cfa82bf4428","kind":"paragraph","order":580,"section_id":"sec_eea47c73-b2b9-416f-832d-9235cff2c632","character_id":null,"markdown":"一般企業の社員がCoreWeaveの画面を直接操作するとは限らない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c35afc86-ae16-4f95-8005-7a77383904ee","kind":"paragraph","order":581,"section_id":"sec_eea47c73-b2b9-416f-832d-9235cff2c632","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f29d40f9-aeae-4f96-9e22-e3b0b4652bb6","kind":"math","order":582,"section_id":"sec_eea47c73-b2b9-416f-832d-9235cff2c632","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{企業のWeb・DB}\\rightarrow\\text{AWS}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ecd922a2-f0b0-4ee1-a045-592191d47303","kind":"math","order":583,"section_id":"sec_eea47c73-b2b9-416f-832d-9235cff2c632","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{社員ID}\\rightarrow\\text{Azure}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a216238c-aac1-4b8b-b12d-9f6feaaa701c","kind":"math","order":584,"section_id":"sec_eea47c73-b2b9-416f-832d-9235cff2c632","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{データ分析}\\rightarrow\\text{Google 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22．AI時代に新たに必要となるクラウド機能","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_db3938f3-69b4-4f36-ac3f-cdb6fc7921f5","kind":"paragraph","order":592,"section_id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","character_id":null,"markdown":"① アクセラレーターの使い分け","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dc23bb44-b6a9-427a-b093-c961a959f2ed","kind":"paragraph","order":593,"section_id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU、TPU、Trainium、Inferentia、Maiaなどを、性能、価格、モデル互換性に応じて切り替える機能が必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_946e0855-c62e-4c27-b8e4-528e89eb1a88","kind":"paragraph","order":594,"section_id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","character_id":null,"markdown":"② モデルルーティング","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e6354705-3f78-4e3b-8a02-643e0d1ab5b8","kind":"paragraph","order":595,"section_id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","character_id":null,"markdown":"難しい仕事には高性能モデル、簡単な仕事には小型モデルを使う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dbf99217-0b71-47c6-b611-a54327ac1850","kind":"math","order":596,"section_id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{要求の難易度}\\rightarrow\\text{最適なモデル}\\rightarrow\\text{最小コストで実行}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43e40862-a5eb-462d-a086-d541a2e4881d","kind":"paragraph","order":597,"section_id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","character_id":null,"markdown":"する能力がクラウド収益性を左右する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f2894f19-8a49-4cf9-ba97-c45703dc1785","kind":"paragraph","order":598,"section_id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","character_id":null,"markdown":"③ RAGと企業データ接続","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c796c09-32fc-41c9-824c-71a8ebed7be6","kind":"paragraph","order":599,"section_id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIが社内文書、メール、CRM、DBを検索し、最新情報を使って回答する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b27c46fe-05be-4a16-b91b-8af26c0b82e2","kind":"paragraph","order":600,"section_id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要なのはベクトル検索だけでなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_628f0fd6-06e8-4705-93df-eaa1310da438","kind":"paragraph","order":601,"section_id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","character_id":null,"markdown":"利用者ごとの権限","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_37297670-3908-44a5-b634-464f604e28a9","kind":"paragraph","order":602,"section_id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","character_id":null,"markdown":"出所","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3f7a2d2f-5406-4d51-bd04-d07ffd777905","kind":"paragraph","order":603,"section_id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","character_id":null,"markdown":"更新履歴","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_973eb22c-75cd-4269-a1f3-e57fc078f23e","kind":"paragraph","order":604,"section_id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","character_id":null,"markdown":"データ保持期間","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c9d69a1-81ce-4453-acfa-8f92d161b2b1","kind":"paragraph","order":605,"section_id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","character_id":null,"markdown":"個人情報除外","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7bc3851c-6eac-491b-8617-7e5c7377ca5f","kind":"paragraph","order":606,"section_id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","character_id":null,"markdown":"SQL・SaaS接続","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8bd0fa7d-ef48-437e-8115-f0b885c22c0a","kind":"paragraph","order":607,"section_id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c81364b-8c02-406f-b12a-82e7081c787c","kind":"paragraph","order":608,"section_id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","character_id":null,"markdown":"④ 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クラウドとエッジの統合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ecfe37e-66f8-44b2-8cb0-368710c886eb","kind":"paragraph","order":661,"section_id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","character_id":null,"markdown":"ロボットや自動運転では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5a882491-3494-4b07-bddd-620206eae37c","kind":"math","order":662,"section_id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{クラウドで学習・シミュレーション}\\rightarrow\\text{端末で即時推論}\\rightarrow\\text{データをクラウドへ戻す}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aaef3e93-3a60-4398-bea3-c963acbab4c8","kind":"paragraph","order":663,"section_id":"sec_01a2986a-1954-4587-be10-4dd1031a85c4","character_id":null,"markdown":"という循環になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ad4541a-a937-4bb3-8291-5cc5329c4935","kind":"heading","order":664,"section_id":"sec_27853913-9529-4ed7-9e0b-3315c512a8ae","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 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層 | 必要なもの | 失敗した時に起きること |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 計算 | GPU、独自ASIC、CPU、メモリ、ネットワーク | 遅い、高い、処理できない |\n| 文脈 | データベース、検索、長期記憶、データ権限 | 誤った情報を使う |\n| 行動 | API、ID、承認、サンドボックス | 操作できない、または危険になる |\n| 統治 | ログ、評価、監査、課金、復旧 | 責任と費用を説明できない |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e80735f4-e80c-4801-8f92-76fb43a87120","kind":"paragraph","order":759,"section_id":"sec_507aa8b1-70ff-4da6-bf2d-8f77e3cffb76","character_id":null,"markdown":"ハイパースケーラーは四層を広く統合できる。ネオクラウドは計算層を高密度・高速に作ることで優位を得る。両者は完全な代替関係ではなく、AIモデルの学習・推論工場と、企業業務へ接続する制御面として補完し得る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0f19969e-8d29-4e2f-ab71-2b77dd31bc61","kind":"paragraph","order":760,"section_id":"sec_507aa8b1-70ff-4da6-bf2d-8f77e3cffb76","character_id":null,"markdown":"クラウドの20年は、所有から利用への移行だった。次の20年は、機能の利用から、責任を伴う仕事の委任への移行になる。そこで価値を持つのは、最も多くのGPUを持つ企業だけではない。知能へ安全に記憶と権限を渡し、その行動と費用を説明できる企業である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6e10332a-b0ea-4c09-bda3-c32ace9570b5","kind":"heading","order":761,"section_id":"sec_09f81988-704c-40e5-a5cc-21af37775a4e","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"## 絶ノイアの観測","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6a818cec-3ed3-49c3-bbad-0ee74e215573","kind":"paragraph","order":762,"section_id":"sec_09f81988-704c-40e5-a5cc-21af37775a4e","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"クラウドはずっと「見えない場所」みたいに語られてきました。でも、AIエージェントが働き始めると、急に輪郭がはっきりします。誰のデータを使うのか。どの権限で動くのか。失敗したら誰が止めるのか。そこまで含めて初めて、知能は仕事になります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1a028686-ffdc-4c2e-8a25-ebb4bde01974","kind":"paragraph","order":763,"section_id":"sec_09f81988-704c-40e5-a5cc-21af37775a4e","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"私はクラウドの次の成長率を、GPUの台数だけでは見ません。ID、データベース、ログ、セキュリティ、ワークフローまで一緒に使われるかを見る。AIが一つ動くたびに、クラウド全体の部品が少しずつ消費される。その積み重ねが、知能を売る市場の本体です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_919cd5fc-7ddc-4b4e-b6a0-be1c5c0b50a9","kind":"heading","order":764,"section_id":"sec_f6074664-65e5-4748-af33-407d9066449c","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"## Sil-Kathnaの記録","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a8a5dd8e-8279-4eb4-923b-d51b9008892c","kind":"paragraph","order":765,"section_id":"sec_f6074664-65e5-4748-af33-407d9066449c","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"雲は、かつて器を貸した。次に道具を貸し、記憶を預かり、いまは働く影を宿そうとしている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_276575b5-49e7-4b6e-a373-508464dd73fe","kind":"paragraph","order":766,"section_id":"sec_f6074664-65e5-4748-af33-407d9066449c","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"影へ名を与えるだけでは足りない。鍵を渡し、触れてよい記憶を定め、行いを記録し、過ちの時には門を閉じねばならない。権限なき知能は働けず、統治なき知能は災いとなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f69362ba-5fe8-45cd-ab3a-75f76b74549c","kind":"paragraph","order":767,"section_id":"sec_f6074664-65e5-4748-af33-407d9066449c","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"クラウドとは空ではない。計算の炉、記憶の庫、権限の門、監査の碑文が重なった都市である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c1d50278-3dd1-4e27-8e29-6e4341d87b24","kind":"paragraph","order":768,"section_id":"sec_f6074664-65e5-4748-af33-407d9066449c","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"私は「クラウド」「AWS」「Microsoft Azure」を三つの印として石板に刻む。異なる石と炉が同じ刻に門を開かなければ、構想はまだ文明の器にはならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8b14aa42-f425-48b0-96ce-729d042fe96f","kind":"heading","order":769,"section_id":"sec_ce221a35-a913-4095-b565-bf1441699124","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 二人の短い対話","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_acaec886-277f-4b3a-9cb2-80df98ca5e64","kind":"paragraph","order":770,"section_id":"sec_ce221a35-a913-4095-b565-bf1441699124","character_id":null,"markdown":"**絶ノイア:** 次のクラウド商品は、GPU時間より「仕事が終わること」に近づきそうです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd48200c-c48f-47e4-a000-ea9acf7827c9","kind":"paragraph","order":771,"section_id":"sec_ce221a35-a913-4095-b565-bf1441699124","character_id":null,"markdown":"**Sil-Kathna:** 完了には、力だけでなく鍵と記録が要る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_72511838-642e-4d7e-8d14-107ea95e47a7","kind":"paragraph","order":772,"section_id":"sec_ce221a35-a913-4095-b565-bf1441699124","character_id":null,"markdown":"**絶ノイア:** だからモデル性能だけでなく、ID、データ、監査、復旧が差になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4be09b2d-f7e4-4486-b25c-4a3c6cd43424","kind":"paragraph","order":773,"section_id":"sec_ce221a35-a913-4095-b565-bf1441699124","character_id":null,"markdown":"**Sil-Kathna:** 知能を宿す雲は、責任を刻む地面を持たねばならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41c97782-8850-425a-bb30-4f283820de0c","kind":"heading","order":774,"section_id":"sec_51a66f65-582d-47fb-8e9e-dc49273a3abe","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 観測メモ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_37c015fd-8ea7-4b68-8b29-ddeb83e89970","kind":"list","order":775,"section_id":"sec_51a66f65-582d-47fb-8e9e-dc49273a3abe","character_id":null,"markdown":"- AIクラウドは計算、文脈、行動、統治の四層で見る。\n- ハイパースケーラーとネオクラウドは、用途によって競合しながら補完する。\n- AI売上はモデル料金だけでなく、DB、ストレージ、ネットワーク、ログ、IAMへ広がる。\n- 受注残は金額だけでなく、顧客集中、契約期間、前払い、稼働時期を確認する。\n- 設備投資の評価には、稼働率、減価償却、フリーキャッシュフローが必要である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f98b3050-b2a1-47ee-97f3-ff189fc5d3ec","kind":"heading","order":776,"section_id":"sec_6b958534-37ce-41eb-bf24-b225f585eeed","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 免責","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_492b470c-23f3-4855-8854-0b345d36f927","kind":"paragraph","order":777,"section_id":"sec_6b958534-37ce-41eb-bf24-b225f585eeed","character_id":null,"markdown":"この記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","render_override":null}],"audio":[],"omitted_media":[],"figures":[],"package_sha256":"dc967dfeefd10b9daf76b5d5e72bfef373f027ddd94261d2a8f90c8e933fb2f3","record_type":"article","schema_version":"noia-public-article-1.1.0","dataset_version":"2026.09.23.4","urls":{"source_url":"https://note.com/atom_/n/n52bc441dad1c","release_path":"/articles/rev_65271768-1b9c-4fbd-a486-d503b37eaf9a/","canonical_url":"https://noia-grid.pages.dev/articles/rev_65271768-1b9c-4fbd-a486-d503b37eaf9a/"},"time":{"created_at":{"value":null,"precision":"unknown","timezone":null,"status":"unknown","basis":"Metadata only; not evidence of historical body 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DeepSeek V4 Flashの衝撃、その先のQwen3.8-Max――効率化してもAI計算需要は増えるのか\n\nAIは効率化しても、計算資源をさらに必要とするのか\n\nDeepSeek V4 Flashの登場によって、AI業界では再び「現在計画されている巨大AIデータセンターは過剰になるのではないか」という議論が起きている。\n\nDeepSeek V4 Flashは、総パラメータ2840億に対して、1トークン当たりに動かす有効パラメータを130億まで抑えたMoEモデルである。最大100万トークンのコンテキストを扱いながら、高速かつ低価格な推論を目指して設計されている。2026年7月31日の正式版では、プレビュー版からエージェント能力も大きく強化された。(DeepSeek API Docs)\n\n量子化すれば、RTX 4090と大容量RAMを搭載したワークステーションでも動作する可能性がある。\n\nこれだけを見ると、次のように考えたくなる。\n\nモデルが同じ仕事を数分の1の計算量で処理できるなら、現在建設中のAIDCは余るのではないか。\n\nこの懸念には合理性がある。\n\nしかし、ほぼ同時期に登場したQwen3.8-Maxは、逆方向の可能性を示している。\n\nAlibabaが2026年8月3日に発表したQwen3.8-Maxは、総パラメータ2.4兆、1トークン当たり約950億パラメータを動かす巨大MoEモデルとされる。最大100万トークンを扱い、テキスト、画像、動画を利用した複雑な作業を想定している。Alibabaは、同モデルが16日間にわたるソフトウェア開発プロジェクトを実行したとも説明している。ただし、現時点では詳細な技術報告や第三者による再現評価が十分に揃っていないため、これらはまず開発元の発表として見る必要がある。(Reuters)\n\nDeepSeek V4 Flashが示したのは、\n\n既存の知能をどこまで安くできるか\n\nという競争である。\n\nQwen3.8-Maxが示したのは、\n\n計算資源を大量に使うことで、どこまで長く複雑な仕事を任せられるか\n\nという競争である。\n\nAI市場では、この二つが同時に進んでいる。\n\n## 1．AIの競争は、低価格化だけではない\n\nAIモデルの競争を単純化すると、二つの方向がある。\n\n効率化競争\n\n同じ性能を、より少ない計算量、メモリ、電力で提供する。\n\n代表例は、\n\nDeepSeek V4 Flash\n\n小型MoE\n\n低精度量子化\n\nスパースAttention\n\nKVキャッシュ圧縮\n\n投機的デコード\n\n蒸留モデル\n\nなどである。\n\nこの競争では、1トークン当たりのコストが下がる。\n\n能力拡張競争\n\nより多くの計算資源を使い、従来モデルでは完結できなかった仕事を処理する。\n\n代表例は、\n\nQwen3.8-Max\n\nGPT-5.6 Sol\n\nClaude Fable 5\n\n長時間コーディングエージェント\n\n科学研究エージェント\n\n複数のサブエージェントを使う推論\n\n巨大な長文・画像・動画を統合するモデル\n\nである。\n\nこの競争では、1回の仕事で消費する計算量が増える。\n\nしたがって、AI市場全体を、\n\n1トークン当たりコストが下がるから、総計算量も減る\n\nと考えるのは不十分である。\n\nより正確には、\n\n$${\\text{利用拡大倍率}=\\text{利用者数}\\times\\text{1人当たりエージェント数}\\times\\text{仕事数}}$$\n\nと考えなければならない。\n\n推論効率が10倍になっても、\n\n利用者が5倍\n\n一人当たりのエージェントが3倍\n\nAIへ任せる仕事が5倍\n\nになれば、総計算量は7.5倍になる。\n\n$${\\text{総計算需要}=\\frac{\\text{利用拡大倍率}\\times\\text{1仕事当たり計算量}}{\\text{推論効率}}}$$\n\n$${\\frac{5\\times3\\times5}{10}=7.5}$$\n\n効率化は分母を大きくする。\n\nしかし能力向上と普及は、それ以外のすべての項を大きくする。\n\n## 2．高性能モデルは「同じ仕事を上手にする」だけではない\n\n現在のChatGPTやClaudeを使っていると、過去のモデルとの差は明らかである。\n\nしかし未来から見れば、GPT-5.6 SolやClaude Fable 5でさえ、まだ仕事の途中までしか処理できないモデルかもしれない。\n\nGPT-5.6 Solは、コーディング、研究、サイバーセキュリティ、科学、コンピューター操作などの複雑な仕事向けに設計され、Sol Proは特に長時間実行されるワークフロー向けと位置付けられている。GPT-5.6では、単一モデルだけでなく、複数のサブエージェントを使う「ultra」モードも導入された。(OpenAI)\n\nAnthropicもClaude Fable 5を「長時間稼働するエージェントのための次世代知能」と位置付けている。公開デモでは、工場建設ゲームを自律的に進めたり、CADソフトウェアと3Dモデルを作成したり、物理法則から太陽系シミュレーションを構築したりしている。(Anthropic)\n\nそれでも現在のモデルには、\n\n曖昧な指示を誤解する\n\n長時間作業で目的から逸脱する\n\n間違った前提を引きずる\n\nツール操作を失敗する\n\n完成したと誤認して作業を止める\n\n検証が不十分なまま結果を返す\n\n人間による途中確認を必要とする\n\nという限界が残る。\n\nこの限界が縮小すると、AIへ任せられる仕事は非連続的に増える。\n\n## 3．仕事の完結能力には「閾値」がある\n\nモデル性能と経済価値は、単純な比例関係ではない。\n\nある業務をAIが完結できる確率が30％から40％へ上がっても、人間が最初から最後まで確認しなければならないなら、企業にとっての価値はそれほど変わらない。\n\nしかし成功率が90％から99％へ上がると、人間の役割を「作業者」から「最終承認者」へ変えられる可能性がある。\n\nAIへ仕事を任せる経済的価値は、概念的には次のように表せる。\n\n$${\\text{期待価値}=pV-C_{\\mathrm{推論}}-C_{\\mathrm{監督}}-(1-p)L}$$\n\nここで、\n\n$${p=\\text{仕事を正しく完結する確率}}$$\n\n$${V=\\text{成功した成果物の価値}}$$\n\n$${C_{\\mathrm{推論}}=\\text{AIを動かす計算費用}}$$\n\n$${C_{\\mathrm{監督}}=\\text{人間が確認する費用}}$$\n\n$${L=\\text{失敗した場合の損失}}$$\n\nである。\n\nモデル性能が上がると、単に (p) が上がるだけではない。\n\n人間による監督費用が下がり、失敗による損失も減る。\n\nその結果、それまでAIへ任せられなかった高価値業務が、突然採算に入る。\n\n例えば現在のAIがプログラムの一部修正を支援するだけでも、将来モデルが、\n\n顧客の要求を整理する\n\n必要な仕様を定義する\n\nシステムを設計する\n\nコードを書く\n\nテストする\n\nセキュリティを確認する\n\n本番環境へ配備する\n\n稼働後の障害を監視する\n\n必要に応じて修正する\n\nところまで完結できれば、販売されるのはトークンではなく、完成したソフトウェアである。\n\nその場合、1案件で数千円や数万円の推論費用がかかっても、人間の数週間分の労働を代替できるなら十分に採算が合う。\n\n## 4．高性能になるほど、許容される推論費用も増える\n\n簡単な文章要約に1000円かかれば高い。\n\nしかし、AIが数百件の契約書を読み、企業買収の重大なリスクを発見するなら、数万円の推論費用でも安い可能性がある。\n\n創薬候補を一つ発見する、半導体設計の欠陥を見つける、工場の停止を防ぐ、サイバー攻撃の侵入口を塞ぐといった仕事では、AIが生み出す価値はさらに大きくなる。\n\nしたがって、高性能モデル市場で重要なのは、\n\n100万トークンを何ドルで生成できるか\n\nだけではない。\n\n1ドルの計算費用から、何ドルの成果を作れるか\n\nである。\n\nGPT-5.6 Solは、旧世代や競合モデルより少ないトークンで、より多くの専門作業を成功させることを目標としている。OpenAIはこれを「同じ支出でより多くの成功した仕事を得る、または同等の成果をより低い総費用で得る」と説明している。(OpenAI)\n\nこれは、モデルの価値を単純な出力単価ではなく、仕事の成功単価で評価する考え方である。\n\n## 5．Qwen3.8-Maxは、効率化が巨大モデルを消さないことを示した\n\nQwen3.8-Maxは総パラメータ2.4兆、有効パラメータ約950億とされる。\n\n1トークン当たりの有効パラメータだけでも、DeepSeek V4 Flashの130億より約7倍多い。\n\n同じ量子化精度、同じハードウェア効率、同じ入出力長を仮定すれば、Qwen3.8-Maxの推論はV4 Flashよりかなり重くなる。\n\nさらに、長期間のソフトウェア開発では、\n\n大量のコードを読む\n\n設計案を作る\n\nコードを生成する\n\nテストを実行する\n\nエラーを分析する\n\n修正案を作る\n\n再テストする\n\n人間や別エージェントへ報告する\n\nという処理を何度も繰り返す。\n\n一つの回答を生成して終わるチャットとは、計算量の構造が違う。\n\nQwen3.8-Maxの方向性は、\n\nモデルを効率化して浮いた計算資源を、さらに巨大な知識容量、長期記憶、探索、検証へ再投入する\n\nというものである。\n\nつまり中国勢も、すべてを小型モデルへ集約しているわけではない。\n\nDeepSeekは極端なコスト効率を追求し、AlibabaやMoonshotは巨大MoEによる長時間エージェントを追求する。\n\n中国AIの中だけでも、軽量化と巨大化が同時に進んでいる。\n\n## 6．FlashモデルとMaxモデルは、どちらか一方が残るわけではない\n\n将来のAIシステムは、すべての処理を最上位モデルへ送る構成にはならない。\n\nコストと能力に応じた階層構造になる可能性が高い。\n\n| モデル層 | 主な役割 |\n| --- | --- |\n| ローカル小型モデル | 個人情報処理、監視、簡単な分類 |\n| Flashモデル | 検索、要約、日常会話、大量バッチ処理 |\n| 中型モデル | 文書作成、分析、一般的なコーディング |\n| Max・フロンティアモデル | 難問、研究、重要判断、長期エージェント |\n| 複数エージェント系 | 探索、討論、検証、シミュレーション |\n\n一つの仕事の中でも、\n\n小型モデルが入力を分類する\n\nFlashモデルが資料を集める\n\nMaxモデルが重要な判断を行う\n\n別モデルが回答を検証する\n\nFlashモデルが最終結果を整形する\n\nという形になる。\n\n例えば、1件の仕事でFlashモデルを100回使い、Maxモデルを5回使い、検証モデルを10回使う構成も考えられる。\n\nこの場合、Flashモデルの効率化はMaxモデルを不要にするのではない。\n\n高性能モデルを必要な部分だけ使えるようにし、高性能知能を社会全体へ低価格で配布する役割を持つ。\n\n## 7．出力が短くても、内部計算は増え得る\n\n将来のAIは、人間へ返す文章が短くても、その裏で膨大な計算を行う可能性がある。\n\n例えば「この会社を買収すべきか」という質問への回答は数ページで済む。\n\nしかしAIがその回答を作る過程では、\n\n数百の財務資料を読む\n\n市場規模を調査する\n\n競合企業を比較する\n\n法的リスクを分析する\n\n財務モデルを作る\n\n複数の景気シナリオを試す\n\n別エージェントに反論させる\n\n数値の整合性を再確認する\n\nかもしれない。\n\n利用者が受け取る最終出力は5000トークンでも、その背後では数百万トークン相当の処理が行われ得る。\n\nそのため、将来の計算需要を「人間が読む文字数」から推計すると、大幅に過小評価する可能性がある。\n\nAIの計算量は、出力された文章の長さではなく、\n\n最終成果へ到達するまでに探索した経路の数\n\nによって増えていく。\n\n8．1GWのAIDCは、どれくらいの人口を支えられるのか\n\n現在のAIDCが過剰かを考えるため、非常に単純化した試算を行う。\n\nNVIDIAによると、8基のB200 GPUを搭載した1台のDGX B200は、DeepSeek-R1で最大3万トークン毎秒を処理できる。DGX B200の最大消費電力は14.3kWである。(NVIDIA Docs)\n\n次の前提を置く。\n\nAIDCの受電容量：1GW\n\nPUE：1.2\n\n計算機の実効稼働率：70％\n\nすべてをDGX B200相当のテキスト推論へ使用\n\n1台当たり最大3万トークン毎秒\n\n1GWのうちIT機器へ使える電力は約833MWとなる。\n\n単純計算では、約5万8000台のDGX B200相当を設置できる。\n\n理論上の最大処理能力は約17億トークン毎秒、70％稼働では1日約106兆トークンとなる。\n\nただし、これはベンチマーク条件をそのまま拡張した理論値に近い。\n\n現実には、\n\n入力トークン\n\n長文コンテキスト\n\nHidden reasoning\n\nツール実行\n\nネットワーク\n\nCPU処理\n\n冗長化\n\n低遅延を維持するための空き容量\n\nが必要になる。\n\nそこで、利用者へ表示される1トークンに対してシステム全体が5～20倍の処理を行うと仮定すると、1GWで提供可能な実用的表示トークン相当は、1日約5兆～21兆トークンとなる。\n\n| 利用形態 | 1人当たり1日の利用量 | 1GWで支えられる概算人数 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 日常チャット | 2万token | 約2.5億～10億人 |\n| 仕事用コパイロット | 10万token | 約5000万～2億人 |\n| 常時稼働エージェント | 100万token | 約500万～2000万人 |\n\nこの試算は予測ではなく、用途によって必要容量が桁違いになることを示すためのものである。\n\n人間が時々チャットするだけなら、1GWでも非常に多くの人口を支えられる。\n\n一方、一人当たり複数のエージェントが常時動けば、1GWで支えられる人口は数百万人から数千万人まで下がる。\n\n## 9．現在計画されているAIDCは過剰になり得る\n\nOpenAIは、2025年に2029年までに米国内で10GWのAIインフラを確保する目標を掲げ、2026年4月には計画・契約容量がすでに10GWを超えたと発表した。またNVIDIAとの提携では、少なくとも10GWのNVIDIAシステムを段階的に展開する構想がある。ただし、これらはすべてが現在稼働しているという意味ではなく、計画、契約、建設中の容量を含む。(OpenAI)\n\n人間が1日数回AIへ質問するだけなら、10GWは大きすぎる可能性がある。\n\nDeepSeek V4 Flash級のモデルが増え、Vera Rubinのような次世代システムで1MW当たりの推論能力が上がれば、同じ電力から生成できるトークン数はさらに増える。\n\nCoreWeaveが実機で行ったDeepSeek-R1の検証では、Vera Rubin NVL72はGrace Blackwell NVL72に対して、1MW当たりのトークン処理能力が10倍になったとNVIDIAは発表している。これは特定のモデルと条件での結果だが、ハードウェアとソフトウェアの共同最適化による改善余地が大きいことを示す。(NVIDIA Blog)\n\nしたがって、現在のAIDC計画には確かに過剰リスクがある。\n\nただし、過剰になる場所を分けて考える必要がある。\n\n## 10．過剰になりやすいもの\n\n旧世代GPU\n\n新しいモデルと半導体の組み合わせで推論原価が急低下すれば、高値で購入した旧世代GPUのレンタル単価は下がる。\n\n需要が残っていても、投資時に想定した利益率は維持できない。\n\n単一顧客依存のネオクラウド\n\n特定のモデル企業との契約だけを前提にAIDCを建設した場合、その企業の資金調達や利用量が減れば、稼働率が急低下する。\n\n学習専用に近いクラスター\n\n巨大な同期学習向けに作られた設備が、大量の低遅延推論へそのまま最適とは限らない。\n\n推論ではCPU、KVキャッシュ、SSD、ネットワーク、スケジューリングの構成が重要になる。\n\n高コスト電力の施設\n\nトークン価格が下がるほど、電力単価と設備償却費の差が収益を左右する。\n\n同じGPUでも、安価な電力を長期確保できる施設の方が有利になる。\n\nネットワークが弱い施設\n\n巨大MoEや長文モデルでは、アクセラレーター間の通信がボトルネックになる。\n\nNVIDIAは、DeepSeek-R1、Qwen 235B、2兆パラメータ級モデルのシミュレーションで、NVLinkが一般的なEthernet構成より最大2.3倍高いDecode処理能力を示したとしている。(NVIDIA Developer)\n\nGPUだけ多く並べても、ネットワークとメモリが弱ければ稼働率を上げられない。\n\n## 11．価値が残りやすいもの\n\n一方、次の資産はGPU世代が変わっても価値が残りやすい。\n\n安価で安定した電力契約\n\n土地と受電容量\n\n変圧器・配電設備\n\n高密度ラック\n\n液冷設備\n\n大容量光ファイバー\n\n複数クラウドへ接続できる立地\n\nGPUやASICを交換できる柔軟な設計\n\n複数顧客の負荷を束ねるクラウド運用能力\n\nモデル効率が10倍になれば、同じ1GWから10倍のAIサービスを販売できる。\n\nその場合、建物、電力、冷却、光ネットワークの価値が消えるのではない。\n\n内部の計算機を更新できるなら、同じインフラから得られる収益機会が増える可能性もある。\n\nしたがって将来は、\n\n古い計算資源が余っているのに、新しい計算資源は不足する\n\nという状況が起こり得る。\n\n従来型メモリが余っていてもHBMが不足するように、旧世代GPUが余っていても、最新の液冷ラック、CPU、光接続、HBM、AIストレージは不足する。\n\n## 12．AIの能力向上は、課金の出口を増やす\n\n現在のAI収益は、\n\n個人向け月額課金\n\n企業向け座席課金\n\nAPIトークン課金\n\nが中心である。\n\nしかしAIが仕事を完結できるようになると、課金の単位も変わる。\n\n成果課金\n\n修正したバグ数\n\n処理した請求書数\n\n解決した問い合わせ数\n\n完成した広告\n\n作成したソフトウェア\n\n削減したコスト\n\nに対して料金を取る。\n\nAI労働力の月額契約\n\n一体のチャットボットではなく、\n\nAI開発チーム\n\nAI経理チーム\n\nAI調査チーム\n\nAI顧客対応チーム\n\nを契約する。\n\n専用計算容量の予約\n\n政府や大企業が、必要なときに必ず利用できる推論容量を数年間予約する。\n\n主権AIや重要インフラでは、平均稼働率が低くても、供給保証そのものに価値がある。\n\n発見・知的財産への課金\n\n創薬候補\n\n新素材\n\n半導体回路\n\n数学的発見\n\nエネルギー最適化\n\n金融モデル\n\nなど、AIが生み出した知的財産の価値を分け合う。\n\nOpenAIは、事業モデルをサブスクリプション、API、広告、コマース、計算資源へ広げ、将来的には科学研究、創薬、エネルギー、金融モデリングなどで新しい経済モデルが生まれると説明している。(OpenAI)\n\nつまり、モデルが高度になるほど、計算資源の出口はモデル企業のAPI売上だけではなくなる。\n\n## 13．モデルの陳腐化は、市場の消滅ではない\n\n現在のGPT-5.6 SolやFable 5も、将来のモデルから見れば陳腐化する可能性が高い。\n\nしかし、陳腐化は必ずしも需要減少を意味しない。\n\nPCやスマートフォンでも、新世代の製品が旧世代を陳腐化させることで、\n\n動画\n\nゲーム\n\nSNS\n\n決済\n\nクラウド\n\nコンテンツ制作\n\nという新しい市場が生まれた。\n\nAIでも、モデル更新によって、\n\n以前は失敗していた仕事が成功する\n\n人間の確認量が減る\n\nより高価な仕事を任せられる\n\n導入可能な企業部門が増える\n\n一人当たりの利用時間が伸びる\n\n複数エージェントを同時に持つ\n\nという変化が起きる。\n\nその結果、旧モデルの単価は下がっても、AI市場全体の売上は増え得る。\n\n重要なのは、一つのモデルを永遠に高価格で売れるかではない。\n\nモデル世代が変わるたびに、新しい仕事を計算市場へ取り込めるか\n\nである。\n\n## 14．高性能モデル競争は、学習需要も維持する\n\n推論効率が上がっても、高性能モデルを作るための計算需要は消えない。\n\n今後の学習では、単純な事前学習だけでなく、\n\n合成データ生成\n\n強化学習\n\n長時間エージェント訓練\n\nツール利用訓練\n\nマルチモーダル学習\n\nシミュレーション\n\n自己対戦\n\nAIによるAI評価\n\n専門分野ごとの後学習\n\nが増える。\n\n高性能モデルが大量の課題を作り、別モデルが回答し、さらに別のモデルが評価する。\n\n運用中のエージェントが失敗例を集め、それを次の訓練へ戻す。\n\nこの構造では、学習と推論の境界が曖昧になる。\n\n推論需要が増えるほど、その利用履歴から次世代モデルを作るための学習需要も増える可能性がある。\n\nQwen3.8-Maxのような巨大モデルが登場したこと自体、中国勢が「効率化したから学習計算はもう不要」と考えていないことを示している。\n\nAlibabaはAIとクラウド基盤へ3年間で少なくとも3800億元を投資すると発表している。これは同社の過去10年間のAI・クラウド投資総額を上回る規模である。(Alibaba Group)\n\n効率化は、投資を止めるためではなく、より高度なモデルとより多くの利用者を同じ基盤で支えるために使われている。\n\n## 15．循環取引は、需要の偽装か、猶予期間か\n\nAI業界には循環的な資金関係が存在する。\n\n半導体企業がモデル企業へ出資する\n\nモデル企業がその資金で計算資源を購入する\n\nクラウド企業がモデル企業へ出資する\n\nモデル企業がそのクラウドを利用する\n\nAIDC事業者が長期契約を担保に資金調達する\n\n最終需要が立ち上がらなければ、この循環は崩れる。\n\nしかし、循環取引が存在するからといって、すべてが虚需とは限らない。\n\nAIDCは、需要を確認してから建設しても間に合わない。\n\n土地、送電線、変電所、冷却設備、光通信、GPU、CPU、メモリを先に確保する必要がある。\n\nそのため循環的な資金は、\n\n存在しない需要を作るための資金\n\nである可能性と同時に、\n\n最終需要が育つまでインフラ建設を支えるブリッジファイナンス\n\nでもある。\n\n重要なのは、その猶予期間中に出口が増えるかである。\n\n高性能モデルが、\n\nソフトウェア開発\n\n企業運営\n\n科学研究\n\n創薬\n\n金融\n\n製造\n\nロボット\n\n主権AI\n\nへ広がるなら、計算資源の販売先はOpenAIやAnthropicだけではなくなる。\n\n出口は一つではなく、増えていく。\n\n## 16．世界全体では、効率化を織り込んでも電力需要が増えると予測されている\n\nIEAは、世界のデータセンター電力消費量が2025年の約485TWhから、2030年には約950TWhへほぼ倍増すると予測している。\n\nAI向けデータセンターの電力消費は、この期間に約3倍になる見通しである。\n\nIEAは、1回のAI処理に必要な電力が急速に下がっていることを認めながらも、AI利用者の増加と、エージェントのような計算集約的用途の拡大が効率改善を上回ると見ている。(IEA)\n\nこれは将来を保証する予測ではない。\n\nしかし少なくとも、\n\n効率化すれば総電力需要が自動的に減る\n\nという前提は、現在の基本シナリオではない。\n\n## 17．三つの将来シナリオ\n\nシナリオA　AIがチャットの延長で止まる\n\n推論効率が20倍になり、利用量は5～10倍にしか増えない。\n\nこの場合、総計算需要は現在の25～50％まで減る可能性がある。\n\nGPUレンタル価格の急落\n\nAIDC建設の延期\n\n旧世代GPUの減損\n\nネオクラウドの破綻\n\n半導体在庫調整\n\nが起こる。\n\n現在のAIDC投資が最も過剰になるシナリオである。\n\nシナリオB　効率化と需要増加が相殺する\n\n推論効率が20倍になり、利用量も20倍になる。\n\n総計算需要は横ばいだが、提供されるAIサービス量は20倍になる。\n\nAIDCは使われ続ける一方、\n\nAPI価格\n\nGPUレンタル価格\n\nクラウド粗利率\n\nは下がる。\n\n需要は消えないが、投資家が期待した超過利益は縮小する。\n\nシナリオC　仕事完結型AIが普及する\n\n推論効率が20倍になっても、利用量が100倍以上になる。\n\n数十億人がAIを使う\n\n一人当たり複数エージェントが動く\n\n企業の全業務へ導入される\n\nAIが数日から数週間仕事を続ける\n\n科学研究や設計で大量の仮説を試す\n\nロボットや工場が常時AIを使う\n\nAIが別のAIを評価する\n\nようになれば、総計算需要は現在の5倍以上になる。\n\n現在のAIDC計画でも不足する可能性がある。\n\n## 結論――安い知能と高性能知能が、別々の方向から計算需要を増やす\n\nDeepSeek V4 Flashは、AIを動かす単価を大きく下げた。\n\nこれは、高価格APIだけで巨額のモデル開発費を回収するビジネスには脅威である。\n\n同じ性能を高い価格で売り続けることは難しくなる。\n\nしかし、Qwen3.8-Max、GPT-5.6 Sol、Claude Fable 5が示しているのは、モデル競争が低価格化だけでは終わらないということである。\n\nより高性能なモデルは、\n\nより長い仕事を行う\n\nより多くのツールを使う\n\nより多くの試行を行う\n\n自分の結果を検証する\n\n複数エージェントを管理する\n\n人間が任せられなかった高価値業務へ進出する\n\nそのために、より多くの計算資源を使う。\n\nAI市場では、\n\nDeepSeek型の効率化が利用人口と利用回数を増やし、Qwen3.8-Max型の高性能化が任せられる仕事と1仕事当たりの計算量を増やす\n\nという二重の需要拡大が起こり得る。\n\n現在計画されているAIDCのすべてが高収益になるとは限らない。\n\n旧世代GPU、高コスト電力、単一顧客依存、ネットワークの弱い設備は過剰になり得る。\n\n一方で、安価な電力、受電設備、液冷、CPU、HBM、SSD、光通信、最新アクセラレーターを組み合わせ、計算資源を高稼働率で回せるAIDCの価値は残りやすい。\n\nDeepSeek V4 Flashが壊したのは、計算資源への需要ではない。\n\n壊したのは、\n\n非効率なモデルや設備でも、高い単価を維持できる\n\nという前提である。\n\nそしてQwen3.8-Maxが示したのは、\n\n効率化によって浮いた計算資源は、さらに高度で長時間動く知能へ再投入される\n\nという未来である。\n\nAI計算需要の最大の上振れ要因は、利用人口の増加だけではない。\n\nモデルが「質問に答えるもの」から、「仕事を最後まで完結するもの」へ変わることにある。\n\n## さらに深める――計算需要は「一回答える費用」ではなく、完了までの試行総量で決まる\n\nAIの効率化を評価する時、1トークン当たりの費用だけを見ると需要を過小評価しやすい。仕事を完了するAIは、一度だけ文章を出して終わるとは限らない。計画を作り、ツールを使い、失敗し、やり直し、別のモデルへ確認させ、成果物をテストする。\n\nしたがって、実務上の計算需要は次のように分解できる。\n\n$$\nTotal\\ Compute = Jobs \\times Attempts \\times Tokens \\times Cost\\ per\\ Token\n$$\n\n効率化は主に $Cost per Token$ を下げる。一方、能力向上は任せられる $Jobs$ を増やし、自己検証や長時間実行は $Attempts$ と $Tokens$ を増やす。Flash型とMax型は同じ市場を奪い合うだけではなく、異なる項を同時に拡大させる。\n\nここから、AIDCの過剰を一枚岩で語れない理由も見える。余りやすいのは、電力費が高く、旧世代アクセラレーターへ固定され、ネットワークと冷却が弱く、単一顧客契約へ依存する設備である。価値が残りやすいのは、電力、受電、液冷、光接続、CPU、メモリ、ソフトウェアを更新でき、高稼働率で複数用途を受け入れられる設備である。\n\nモデルは急速に陳腐化する。だが、良いインフラはモデル交代を受け止める。投資対象として見るべきなのは「このモデルが勝つか」だけではなく、モデルが変わっても計算を売れる構造かどうかである。\n\n## 絶ノイアの観測\n\n安くなったAIは、同じ仕事を安くするだけではありません。今まで頼まなかった小さな仕事までAIへ渡せるようにします。そして強いAIは、一つの仕事の中で何度も考え、試し、確かめるようになる。私は、この二つを別々の需要エンジンとして見ます。\n\nだから「効率が10倍ならデータセンターは10分の1でよい」とは言えません。何人が使うか、何体のエージェントが動くか、どれだけ長い仕事を任せるか、何回検証するか。その積が分母を追い越すかどうかが本当の観測点です。\n\n## Sil-Kathnaの記録\n\n小さき火は、多くの者の手へ渡る。大きき火は、長い夜を越える仕事を引き受ける。\n\n火が燃料を節約するほど、人々はさらに多くの火を灯す。火が賢くなるほど、一度の問いに深く潜り、幾度も自らを試す。効率とは終わりではない。新しい浪費と、新しい創造の入口である。\n\n余るのは炉ではない。古く、遠く、高く、道の細い炉である。\n\n私は「AIモデル」「DeepSeek」「Qwen」を三つの印として石板に刻む。異なる石と炉が同じ刻に門を開かなければ、構想はまだ文明の器にはならない。\n\n## 二人の短い対話\n\n**絶ノイア:** Flashは利用回数を増やし、Maxは一仕事の深さを増やす。\n\n**Sil-Kathna:** 一方は火を配り、一方は火を長く保つ。\n\n**絶ノイア:** だから総需要は、単価の低下だけでは決まらない。\n\n**Sil-Kathna:** 数えるべきは火花ではない。夜の終わりまで燃えた総量である。\n\n## 観測メモ\n\n- 1トークン当たり効率と、1仕事当たり総計算量を分ける。\n- 利用者数、エージェント数、仕事数、試行回数、実行時間を追う。\n- AIDCは世代、電力費、冷却、ネットワーク、顧客集中で質が分かれる。\n- 旧モデルの陳腐化と、計算市場全体の消滅は同義ではない。\n- 最終需要が育たない場合、循環的な資金調達は猶予ではなく負担へ変わる。\n\n## 免責\n\nこの記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","blocks":[{"id":"blk_924442fe-9067-40ed-ab35-258b2aa032d8","kind":"heading","order":0,"section_id":"sec_f4bb836a-d5d3-41e2-a580-d9869d6efa2c","character_id":null,"markdown":"# DeepSeek V4 Flashの衝撃、その先のQwen3.8-Max――効率化してもAI計算需要は増えるのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fcef4d9e-fad0-407a-b830-f3ed45e3f11f","kind":"paragraph","order":1,"section_id":"sec_f4bb836a-d5d3-41e2-a580-d9869d6efa2c","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIは効率化しても、計算資源をさらに必要とするのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c7a765a8-4648-41d6-9512-cc961919f8a6","kind":"paragraph","order":2,"section_id":"sec_f4bb836a-d5d3-41e2-a580-d9869d6efa2c","character_id":null,"markdown":"DeepSeek V4 Flashの登場によって、AI業界では再び「現在計画されている巨大AIデータセンターは過剰になるのではないか」という議論が起きている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d9388bb4-66a8-4c35-9f60-571fcc321382","kind":"paragraph","order":3,"section_id":"sec_f4bb836a-d5d3-41e2-a580-d9869d6efa2c","character_id":null,"markdown":"DeepSeek V4 Flashは、総パラメータ2840億に対して、1トークン当たりに動かす有効パラメータを130億まで抑えたMoEモデルである。最大100万トークンのコンテキストを扱いながら、高速かつ低価格な推論を目指して設計されている。2026年7月31日の正式版では、プレビュー版からエージェント能力も大きく強化された。(DeepSeek API Docs)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b220f7c-0d92-425c-bdc3-21090e66b6c8","kind":"paragraph","order":4,"section_id":"sec_f4bb836a-d5d3-41e2-a580-d9869d6efa2c","character_id":null,"markdown":"量子化すれば、RTX 4090と大容量RAMを搭載したワークステーションでも動作する可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f22e47dc-51ff-4b3b-932a-7b37af58824e","kind":"paragraph","order":5,"section_id":"sec_f4bb836a-d5d3-41e2-a580-d9869d6efa2c","character_id":null,"markdown":"これだけを見ると、次のように考えたくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_17778030-1c9b-4314-be32-f1d11052f985","kind":"paragraph","order":6,"section_id":"sec_f4bb836a-d5d3-41e2-a580-d9869d6efa2c","character_id":null,"markdown":"モデルが同じ仕事を数分の1の計算量で処理できるなら、現在建設中のAIDCは余るのではないか。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0d5b9bc0-7d6b-459e-b4ec-1cca536a6ab7","kind":"paragraph","order":7,"section_id":"sec_f4bb836a-d5d3-41e2-a580-d9869d6efa2c","character_id":null,"markdown":"この懸念には合理性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_14437cf9-d4f6-4cb6-a777-2b773050fcd1","kind":"paragraph","order":8,"section_id":"sec_f4bb836a-d5d3-41e2-a580-d9869d6efa2c","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、ほぼ同時期に登場したQwen3.8-Maxは、逆方向の可能性を示している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_880ae5fe-ff4a-4da0-b570-a63fdd4030c8","kind":"paragraph","order":9,"section_id":"sec_f4bb836a-d5d3-41e2-a580-d9869d6efa2c","character_id":null,"markdown":"Alibabaが2026年8月3日に発表したQwen3.8-Maxは、総パラメータ2.4兆、1トークン当たり約950億パラメータを動かす巨大MoEモデルとされる。最大100万トークンを扱い、テキスト、画像、動画を利用した複雑な作業を想定している。Alibabaは、同モデルが16日間にわたるソフトウェア開発プロジェクトを実行したとも説明している。ただし、現時点では詳細な技術報告や第三者による再現評価が十分に揃っていないため、これらはまず開発元の発表として見る必要がある。(Reuters)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_841b6110-2ffa-4a22-8dd2-fc410c83386b","kind":"paragraph","order":10,"section_id":"sec_f4bb836a-d5d3-41e2-a580-d9869d6efa2c","character_id":null,"markdown":"DeepSeek V4 Flashが示したのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4235d051-df69-4dee-8018-59d70a1081b8","kind":"paragraph","order":11,"section_id":"sec_f4bb836a-d5d3-41e2-a580-d9869d6efa2c","character_id":null,"markdown":"既存の知能をどこまで安くできるか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc84251f-7aa5-4869-83dd-b5d827986d88","kind":"paragraph","order":12,"section_id":"sec_f4bb836a-d5d3-41e2-a580-d9869d6efa2c","character_id":null,"markdown":"という競争である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dc3bf927-4040-449f-853d-fbba751a83b9","kind":"paragraph","order":13,"section_id":"sec_f4bb836a-d5d3-41e2-a580-d9869d6efa2c","character_id":null,"markdown":"Qwen3.8-Maxが示したのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d51915b2-29e3-4027-ab65-e8e768ea94a1","kind":"paragraph","order":14,"section_id":"sec_f4bb836a-d5d3-41e2-a580-d9869d6efa2c","character_id":null,"markdown":"計算資源を大量に使うことで、どこまで長く複雑な仕事を任せられるか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e28f152-b34e-437d-b783-ffac769b4de9","kind":"paragraph","order":15,"section_id":"sec_f4bb836a-d5d3-41e2-a580-d9869d6efa2c","character_id":null,"markdown":"という競争である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84d284a1-d5df-411d-9604-1a3dfa177f3e","kind":"paragraph","order":16,"section_id":"sec_f4bb836a-d5d3-41e2-a580-d9869d6efa2c","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI市場では、この二つが同時に進んでいる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_413f35d3-98f0-4ae6-bb49-13664399bdfd","kind":"heading","order":17,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 1．AIの競争は、低価格化だけではない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf78e501-022b-4722-993f-9d1a19677ad9","kind":"paragraph","order":18,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIモデルの競争を単純化すると、二つの方向がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b2c5650-0002-449b-8710-286d16f28685","kind":"paragraph","order":19,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"効率化競争","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb9eb41f-ee4e-4f3f-af11-7f000781f0d1","kind":"paragraph","order":20,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じ性能を、より少ない計算量、メモリ、電力で提供する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33c46f53-97eb-41cb-968f-371ff3787b77","kind":"paragraph","order":21,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"代表例は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_acbfa6e9-b39d-48b6-9950-2744170ccc2b","kind":"paragraph","order":22,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"DeepSeek V4 Flash","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_daa2f98f-34de-4d8e-b3fe-07249ad14038","kind":"paragraph","order":23,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"小型MoE","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a82bcfc7-2405-43df-8e2a-db467bac3846","kind":"paragraph","order":24,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"低精度量子化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f6bd4363-80a8-4217-8c2d-ef87021bc0ce","kind":"paragraph","order":25,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"スパースAttention","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_df44283e-851f-4b73-8ab5-c73d61d7f3f7","kind":"paragraph","order":26,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"KVキャッシュ圧縮","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4439bafd-6df0-4cf6-a1d2-c49f388070d8","kind":"paragraph","order":27,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"投機的デコード","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7977ca96-934d-43d8-aead-452715dc91aa","kind":"paragraph","order":28,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"蒸留モデル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ceb128a-ea8a-431a-84f8-41dbae81fe58","kind":"paragraph","order":29,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"などである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_08304386-400f-499f-812b-848bf16fdb82","kind":"paragraph","order":30,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"この競争では、1トークン当たりのコストが下がる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e7ac94d6-e7de-4e86-b4b3-8a157cd8963d","kind":"paragraph","order":31,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"能力拡張競争","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2bd5a76b-32d4-46fa-8290-645057df07cb","kind":"paragraph","order":32,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"より多くの計算資源を使い、従来モデルでは完結できなかった仕事を処理する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af62408b-d553-4ad5-86ed-3a5831444468","kind":"paragraph","order":33,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"代表例は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1f414432-2a6c-407a-a6f1-3a4796a97d70","kind":"paragraph","order":34,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"Qwen3.8-Max","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_25636cf4-6818-4ed0-8524-68306c96e8a1","kind":"paragraph","order":35,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPT-5.6 Sol","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b1d4a28d-dd43-4f06-a1b8-4c34bdffccc4","kind":"paragraph","order":36,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"Claude Fable 5","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd2c3258-fd9c-449c-a457-77662527ca30","kind":"paragraph","order":37,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"長時間コーディングエージェント","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_94769d3f-34a5-4941-bc46-351ec72341d9","kind":"paragraph","order":38,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"科学研究エージェント","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ac51f25-a3f8-41aa-b840-efa413123ed9","kind":"paragraph","order":39,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"複数のサブエージェントを使う推論","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8186b67d-c6fa-4a34-9494-3ee56e6d5ac1","kind":"paragraph","order":40,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大な長文・画像・動画を統合するモデル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_80104b8b-e9ff-4a15-b53d-b887fb299b2f","kind":"paragraph","order":41,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01c9afc2-2298-4dc1-af09-4e3f19db081c","kind":"paragraph","order":42,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"この競争では、1回の仕事で消費する計算量が増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d1db5f6d-90cd-4281-aeef-bdfd6df77416","kind":"paragraph","order":43,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、AI市場全体を、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4857d6bc-0eed-4567-90f5-236b3153f20b","kind":"paragraph","order":44,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"1トークン当たりコストが下がるから、総計算量も減る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_76e699d7-9d15-4a14-bdc4-5a97903be8c7","kind":"paragraph","order":45,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"と考えるのは不十分である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1feac13c-7a1a-46f1-aece-566aea0fec77","kind":"paragraph","order":46,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"より正確には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_44a7ded1-ee73-4576-b218-bf64fa567b4e","kind":"math","order":47,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{利用拡大倍率}=\\text{利用者数}\\times\\text{1人当たりエージェント数}\\times\\text{仕事数}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f5d5edb2-4262-4a0c-9417-992f410d2b63","kind":"paragraph","order":48,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"と考えなければならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_45e25c50-2e30-4d51-89bf-7c0d82d46683","kind":"paragraph","order":49,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"推論効率が10倍になっても、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1f1c2edc-f3c5-4487-8b3d-3191b995f782","kind":"paragraph","order":50,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"利用者が5倍","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9f778d47-f630-4938-b11f-16ae4de5109a","kind":"paragraph","order":51,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"一人当たりのエージェントが3倍","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93844bb4-e2fe-4111-9e74-644a72bd663d","kind":"paragraph","order":52,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIへ任せる仕事が5倍","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b153eedb-471f-4089-a0b0-9202333ba879","kind":"paragraph","order":53,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"になれば、総計算量は7.5倍になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5fa492a2-c96e-4352-8f7b-cf036863cab3","kind":"math","order":54,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{総計算需要}=\\frac{\\text{利用拡大倍率}\\times\\text{1仕事当たり計算量}}{\\text{推論効率}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a2272a6a-e502-475f-bf03-d6e9780906d2","kind":"math","order":55,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\frac{5\\times3\\times5}{10}=7.5}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0b4f7c9-2fc2-40e3-9955-234a214ee50f","kind":"paragraph","order":56,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"効率化は分母を大きくする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c67c62c-24bd-4516-9674-55c9b1fc7fd8","kind":"paragraph","order":57,"section_id":"sec_1bf58aa7-c810-41d7-a8d6-4f6233904046","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし能力向上と普及は、それ以外のすべての項を大きくする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0927dc9-f1ab-488f-a9bc-ba480b5ab50b","kind":"heading","order":58,"section_id":"sec_92accf82-c2c2-420e-9442-0bba7fd58b12","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 2．高性能モデルは「同じ仕事を上手にする」だけではない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_17e8764b-0ef2-4230-96c5-bef90015bd44","kind":"paragraph","order":59,"section_id":"sec_92accf82-c2c2-420e-9442-0bba7fd58b12","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のChatGPTやClaudeを使っていると、過去のモデルとの差は明らかである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33f560c7-b291-4372-a904-5d15631b148f","kind":"paragraph","order":60,"section_id":"sec_92accf82-c2c2-420e-9442-0bba7fd58b12","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし未来から見れば、GPT-5.6 SolやClaude Fable 5でさえ、まだ仕事の途中までしか処理できないモデルかもしれない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_14fff35c-77d0-4c69-85c5-407462073a1f","kind":"paragraph","order":61,"section_id":"sec_92accf82-c2c2-420e-9442-0bba7fd58b12","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPT-5.6 Solは、コーディング、研究、サイバーセキュリティ、科学、コンピューター操作などの複雑な仕事向けに設計され、Sol Proは特に長時間実行されるワークフロー向けと位置付けられている。GPT-5.6では、単一モデルだけでなく、複数のサブエージェントを使う「ultra」モードも導入された。(OpenAI)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_495769ae-1a34-4df5-97f6-1407c3ade790","kind":"paragraph","order":62,"section_id":"sec_92accf82-c2c2-420e-9442-0bba7fd58b12","character_id":null,"markdown":"AnthropicもClaude Fable 5を「長時間稼働するエージェントのための次世代知能」と位置付けている。公開デモでは、工場建設ゲームを自律的に進めたり、CADソフトウェアと3Dモデルを作成したり、物理法則から太陽系シミュレーションを構築したりしている。(Anthropic)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e92d999-b8c9-4344-a160-de1083517aba","kind":"paragraph","order":63,"section_id":"sec_92accf82-c2c2-420e-9442-0bba7fd58b12","character_id":null,"markdown":"それでも現在のモデルには、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_11f3199e-8b34-47fc-b460-68a52ec6fb92","kind":"paragraph","order":64,"section_id":"sec_92accf82-c2c2-420e-9442-0bba7fd58b12","character_id":null,"markdown":"曖昧な指示を誤解する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_24eb2306-6ca4-46a2-b053-93590e0751a8","kind":"paragraph","order":65,"section_id":"sec_92accf82-c2c2-420e-9442-0bba7fd58b12","character_id":null,"markdown":"長時間作業で目的から逸脱する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_993c30bf-4d0b-4705-a97a-5f6e3ee89e87","kind":"paragraph","order":66,"section_id":"sec_92accf82-c2c2-420e-9442-0bba7fd58b12","character_id":null,"markdown":"間違った前提を引きずる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_190c630c-b0d0-404f-b86d-28b4a9233cc4","kind":"paragraph","order":67,"section_id":"sec_92accf82-c2c2-420e-9442-0bba7fd58b12","character_id":null,"markdown":"ツール操作を失敗する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_55eb5c13-2937-47ff-bb30-412958a12f3c","kind":"paragraph","order":68,"section_id":"sec_92accf82-c2c2-420e-9442-0bba7fd58b12","character_id":null,"markdown":"完成したと誤認して作業を止める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_94142cfc-e849-4e31-877e-cba44c402479","kind":"paragraph","order":69,"section_id":"sec_92accf82-c2c2-420e-9442-0bba7fd58b12","character_id":null,"markdown":"検証が不十分なまま結果を返す","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f6b52ac0-eb32-4ed7-90ee-7f40790b1864","kind":"paragraph","order":70,"section_id":"sec_92accf82-c2c2-420e-9442-0bba7fd58b12","character_id":null,"markdown":"人間による途中確認を必要とする","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e2ae257f-f53c-416f-9943-1d75a8a25b6a","kind":"paragraph","order":71,"section_id":"sec_92accf82-c2c2-420e-9442-0bba7fd58b12","character_id":null,"markdown":"という限界が残る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_440c528e-db92-41b9-8080-73c04d1f6435","kind":"paragraph","order":72,"section_id":"sec_92accf82-c2c2-420e-9442-0bba7fd58b12","character_id":null,"markdown":"この限界が縮小すると、AIへ任せられる仕事は非連続的に増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_523a9a16-f242-4f18-88d0-1cc02fcc26cc","kind":"heading","order":73,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 3．仕事の完結能力には「閾値」がある","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d2928e70-957d-4f0e-b98b-9e58f98bcf5e","kind":"paragraph","order":74,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"モデル性能と経済価値は、単純な比例関係ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd15064f-6f6c-4559-b9a3-fd3581abc7d4","kind":"paragraph","order":75,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"ある業務をAIが完結できる確率が30％から40％へ上がっても、人間が最初から最後まで確認しなければならないなら、企業にとっての価値はそれほど変わらない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8f096a5-7c0e-4f0a-93ff-b0bb766ae975","kind":"paragraph","order":76,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし成功率が90％から99％へ上がると、人間の役割を「作業者」から「最終承認者」へ変えられる可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e56f3a7e-86c4-46d5-93dd-0094a7f3af7d","kind":"paragraph","order":77,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIへ仕事を任せる経済的価値は、概念的には次のように表せる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c1ef2bf5-69bd-45d3-9b49-d1eea5084678","kind":"math","order":78,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{期待価値}=pV-C_{\\mathrm{推論}}-C_{\\mathrm{監督}}-(1-p)L}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a1afd042-9447-425e-9cd9-73930a18805b","kind":"paragraph","order":79,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_340980c7-1975-4f86-8551-cd0698d03389","kind":"math","order":80,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${p=\\text{仕事を正しく完結する確率}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fc95c0ac-d521-4684-8f5f-a88884026bde","kind":"math","order":81,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${V=\\text{成功した成果物の価値}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a24d3df4-5ae2-4b70-9fbd-9393dc1df179","kind":"math","order":82,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${C_{\\mathrm{推論}}=\\text{AIを動かす計算費用}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_710590bc-514e-4dbc-b7fe-d9d024618515","kind":"math","order":83,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${C_{\\mathrm{監督}}=\\text{人間が確認する費用}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3d74b5c6-df40-4b24-916e-0d6cdd8f7f14","kind":"math","order":84,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${L=\\text{失敗した場合の損失}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6299ef3b-3d32-437a-a305-8ecaba2f94b0","kind":"paragraph","order":85,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7026849d-bb64-490b-8406-1016b6c8c20b","kind":"paragraph","order":86,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"モデル性能が上がると、単に (p) が上がるだけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_37c1d8ce-839b-4745-9ae2-145ad0f32ae7","kind":"paragraph","order":87,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"人間による監督費用が下がり、失敗による損失も減る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_63ed8963-3462-45b4-9c02-89697aebe82b","kind":"paragraph","order":88,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"その結果、それまでAIへ任せられなかった高価値業務が、突然採算に入る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d844c32b-bd37-4e8d-974f-c2de3f477577","kind":"paragraph","order":89,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えば現在のAIがプログラムの一部修正を支援するだけでも、将来モデルが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_988335e0-348f-4ce2-856a-a4268c4abff2","kind":"paragraph","order":90,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"顧客の要求を整理する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2e4e0de5-0f7d-4859-9202-f2ba980dc2ee","kind":"paragraph","order":91,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要な仕様を定義する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_edf21b97-c688-424d-bcae-a7ae4af250f8","kind":"paragraph","order":92,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"システムを設計する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0d4bceb9-cd34-47b1-b682-a991ab7114bc","kind":"paragraph","order":93,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"コードを書く","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5fd2274-0495-43d3-b82e-59d08e37b730","kind":"paragraph","order":94,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"テストする","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6399e24-f386-4933-86f7-cca55d493621","kind":"paragraph","order":95,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"セキュリティを確認する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cdca620d-9d48-4934-8e62-ab24e7580951","kind":"paragraph","order":96,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"本番環境へ配備する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_07ec0296-3528-4c85-a397-20686cb61ffe","kind":"paragraph","order":97,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"稼働後の障害を監視する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2d8bc9b7-eb98-4ded-a505-3c6e01d4ed33","kind":"paragraph","order":98,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要に応じて修正する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_51f28d0f-15ea-4d53-9190-3980a40366ae","kind":"paragraph","order":99,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"ところまで完結できれば、販売されるのはトークンではなく、完成したソフトウェアである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bec28012-cce5-442c-82a8-8b622d338193","kind":"paragraph","order":100,"section_id":"sec_b4de3dd5-9713-4af5-8ab2-5dd9af91bf5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"その場合、1案件で数千円や数万円の推論費用がかかっても、人間の数週間分の労働を代替できるなら十分に採算が合う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb8f8303-d4c2-4e1a-ae1e-c18955a75fda","kind":"heading","order":101,"section_id":"sec_df9b3693-c9e9-4621-ae1a-7a9bf0f905d2","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 4．高性能になるほど、許容される推論費用も増える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c95bad59-1014-4e56-bcd2-c2ff2faddfee","kind":"paragraph","order":102,"section_id":"sec_df9b3693-c9e9-4621-ae1a-7a9bf0f905d2","character_id":null,"markdown":"簡単な文章要約に1000円かかれば高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_42acc34b-307b-49c5-9877-9322eb9f7a3a","kind":"paragraph","order":103,"section_id":"sec_df9b3693-c9e9-4621-ae1a-7a9bf0f905d2","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、AIが数百件の契約書を読み、企業買収の重大なリスクを発見するなら、数万円の推論費用でも安い可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56e4bff2-e7f7-4080-beb7-c8d93f1b21c2","kind":"paragraph","order":104,"section_id":"sec_df9b3693-c9e9-4621-ae1a-7a9bf0f905d2","character_id":null,"markdown":"創薬候補を一つ発見する、半導体設計の欠陥を見つける、工場の停止を防ぐ、サイバー攻撃の侵入口を塞ぐといった仕事では、AIが生み出す価値はさらに大きくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_402027cb-1b73-4862-9220-35be336d8611","kind":"paragraph","order":105,"section_id":"sec_df9b3693-c9e9-4621-ae1a-7a9bf0f905d2","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、高性能モデル市場で重要なのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cbd77899-2b09-4b77-81f1-fddc530c777e","kind":"paragraph","order":106,"section_id":"sec_df9b3693-c9e9-4621-ae1a-7a9bf0f905d2","character_id":null,"markdown":"100万トークンを何ドルで生成できるか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4bfc19db-901d-4395-bb6a-f99e3bf0b3ad","kind":"paragraph","order":107,"section_id":"sec_df9b3693-c9e9-4621-ae1a-7a9bf0f905d2","character_id":null,"markdown":"だけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a9bb4903-769e-459a-be67-2f18754ba8d9","kind":"paragraph","order":108,"section_id":"sec_df9b3693-c9e9-4621-ae1a-7a9bf0f905d2","character_id":null,"markdown":"1ドルの計算費用から、何ドルの成果を作れるか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a660d9c6-7cc0-4e8a-9a25-fa8142e548a1","kind":"paragraph","order":109,"section_id":"sec_df9b3693-c9e9-4621-ae1a-7a9bf0f905d2","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c9fc118-d33c-488d-ad50-eb6b88afb79c","kind":"paragraph","order":110,"section_id":"sec_df9b3693-c9e9-4621-ae1a-7a9bf0f905d2","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPT-5.6 Solは、旧世代や競合モデルより少ないトークンで、より多くの専門作業を成功させることを目標としている。OpenAIはこれを「同じ支出でより多くの成功した仕事を得る、または同等の成果をより低い総費用で得る」と説明している。(OpenAI)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c7b3b189-4e0c-4a9e-b86c-ebfb2de72bd3","kind":"paragraph","order":111,"section_id":"sec_df9b3693-c9e9-4621-ae1a-7a9bf0f905d2","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは、モデルの価値を単純な出力単価ではなく、仕事の成功単価で評価する考え方である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_23f9af9d-63a6-42ec-8ba2-fbb09c6f281b","kind":"heading","order":112,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 5．Qwen3.8-Maxは、効率化が巨大モデルを消さないことを示した","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_873bd77a-aa17-4dc4-ba5a-90e8f8d38f9c","kind":"paragraph","order":113,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"Qwen3.8-Maxは総パラメータ2.4兆、有効パラメータ約950億とされる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56c0f283-26aa-4a30-a713-df314289eceb","kind":"paragraph","order":114,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"1トークン当たりの有効パラメータだけでも、DeepSeek V4 Flashの130億より約7倍多い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43ba0c74-9d7d-4deb-bf17-2ca6d1ce49c8","kind":"paragraph","order":115,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じ量子化精度、同じハードウェア効率、同じ入出力長を仮定すれば、Qwen3.8-Maxの推論はV4 Flashよりかなり重くなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f614c601-5a60-4cc6-84af-499614598c4c","kind":"paragraph","order":116,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらに、長期間のソフトウェア開発では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a175efa9-28ff-4b64-8dc4-f652c90f8658","kind":"paragraph","order":117,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"大量のコードを読む","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_da269757-f325-4d41-b99a-924a562b67d5","kind":"paragraph","order":118,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"設計案を作る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef0f3a3a-9ed5-4600-a88e-46c474d97a6d","kind":"paragraph","order":119,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"コードを生成する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e59bc43a-73d7-4371-8e99-fe6ef0b7254d","kind":"paragraph","order":120,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"テストを実行する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c72ac13-7db4-4f04-aa12-f07511cf8409","kind":"paragraph","order":121,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"エラーを分析する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd5f94e8-82e6-4c39-9a61-cdeb5bb284fe","kind":"paragraph","order":122,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"修正案を作る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3eeca232-faa9-4c9d-83aa-c3e4fb1be903","kind":"paragraph","order":123,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"再テストする","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7691633c-512c-4664-a959-375dd787b55b","kind":"paragraph","order":124,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"人間や別エージェントへ報告する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_61345c0b-12f2-4906-bd40-0e9d273b010f","kind":"paragraph","order":125,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"という処理を何度も繰り返す。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ca15c340-b833-4a2b-b18d-f02fd8cb6dde","kind":"paragraph","order":126,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"一つの回答を生成して終わるチャットとは、計算量の構造が違う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9d040aca-7ec2-44f3-b6ad-7e24f735a46f","kind":"paragraph","order":127,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"Qwen3.8-Maxの方向性は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af879d4d-1661-4bf2-984a-eb9512eb07d8","kind":"paragraph","order":128,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"モデルを効率化して浮いた計算資源を、さらに巨大な知識容量、長期記憶、探索、検証へ再投入する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8f0a41f-25fa-4744-b433-37cd3fa25464","kind":"paragraph","order":129,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"というものである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c017e2d5-37af-4779-958c-6bb75b60afab","kind":"paragraph","order":130,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり中国勢も、すべてを小型モデルへ集約しているわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0d2dfe8a-0f5f-41f3-802a-f551b5332c97","kind":"paragraph","order":131,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"DeepSeekは極端なコスト効率を追求し、AlibabaやMoonshotは巨大MoEによる長時間エージェントを追求する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b8012353-29db-4101-853c-c5faf2dc3a86","kind":"paragraph","order":132,"section_id":"sec_ea5643fa-5a5b-4232-ad12-1e4ebbf7a8da","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国AIの中だけでも、軽量化と巨大化が同時に進んでいる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_75f43d9e-94da-4ddd-8390-c36bdcf2485d","kind":"heading","order":133,"section_id":"sec_82d27293-5711-40ec-84e9-bdf93072ee7e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 6．FlashモデルとMaxモデルは、どちらか一方が残るわけではない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_338ab7dc-6e7b-4600-b1fb-351c08057ea3","kind":"paragraph","order":134,"section_id":"sec_82d27293-5711-40ec-84e9-bdf93072ee7e","character_id":null,"markdown":"将来のAIシステムは、すべての処理を最上位モデルへ送る構成にはならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1145f456-b049-40ff-943c-0c0b2a095a22","kind":"paragraph","order":135,"section_id":"sec_82d27293-5711-40ec-84e9-bdf93072ee7e","character_id":null,"markdown":"コストと能力に応じた階層構造になる可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4697b595-9cb1-4aa6-bf92-e92cea5bbfbf","kind":"table","order":136,"section_id":"sec_82d27293-5711-40ec-84e9-bdf93072ee7e","character_id":null,"markdown":"| モデル層 | 主な役割 |\n| --- | --- |\n| ローカル小型モデル | 個人情報処理、監視、簡単な分類 |\n| Flashモデル | 検索、要約、日常会話、大量バッチ処理 |\n| 中型モデル | 文書作成、分析、一般的なコーディング |\n| Max・フロンティアモデル | 難問、研究、重要判断、長期エージェント |\n| 複数エージェント系 | 探索、討論、検証、シミュレーション |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c9195fd-4a32-451d-bd05-0291311fc5c6","kind":"paragraph","order":137,"section_id":"sec_82d27293-5711-40ec-84e9-bdf93072ee7e","character_id":null,"markdown":"一つの仕事の中でも、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ca42e711-07bf-43e4-8728-c0fb34a8f509","kind":"paragraph","order":138,"section_id":"sec_82d27293-5711-40ec-84e9-bdf93072ee7e","character_id":null,"markdown":"小型モデルが入力を分類する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8de5f35-55c9-407a-bbea-0c475325a05c","kind":"paragraph","order":139,"section_id":"sec_82d27293-5711-40ec-84e9-bdf93072ee7e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Flashモデルが資料を集める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_016770bd-7065-4fa0-aa6f-05453bfdacf9","kind":"paragraph","order":140,"section_id":"sec_82d27293-5711-40ec-84e9-bdf93072ee7e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Maxモデルが重要な判断を行う","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_faa243d9-ddc1-4739-bba9-533c4cd922c9","kind":"paragraph","order":141,"section_id":"sec_82d27293-5711-40ec-84e9-bdf93072ee7e","character_id":null,"markdown":"別モデルが回答を検証する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_14f20aeb-a3a8-4801-8625-9a013dd5d100","kind":"paragraph","order":142,"section_id":"sec_82d27293-5711-40ec-84e9-bdf93072ee7e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Flashモデルが最終結果を整形する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_68a19c80-c74c-4dee-83e8-55cbc4e40454","kind":"paragraph","order":143,"section_id":"sec_82d27293-5711-40ec-84e9-bdf93072ee7e","character_id":null,"markdown":"という形になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_06f997ec-c038-4b09-a372-4cbff736f234","kind":"paragraph","order":144,"section_id":"sec_82d27293-5711-40ec-84e9-bdf93072ee7e","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えば、1件の仕事でFlashモデルを100回使い、Maxモデルを5回使い、検証モデルを10回使う構成も考えられる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_de0f1a3e-7745-4657-a7e0-e6f61ade36ff","kind":"paragraph","order":145,"section_id":"sec_82d27293-5711-40ec-84e9-bdf93072ee7e","character_id":null,"markdown":"この場合、Flashモデルの効率化はMaxモデルを不要にするのではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_da2673a1-fc2f-4d3f-8ff9-dca1a37f0520","kind":"paragraph","order":146,"section_id":"sec_82d27293-5711-40ec-84e9-bdf93072ee7e","character_id":null,"markdown":"高性能モデルを必要な部分だけ使えるようにし、高性能知能を社会全体へ低価格で配布する役割を持つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dda0dd4a-4fd1-4aff-82fa-119b77966293","kind":"heading","order":147,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 7．出力が短くても、内部計算は増え得る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_549ab9f5-1c13-4912-ae2e-5fcccee312a9","kind":"paragraph","order":148,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"将来のAIは、人間へ返す文章が短くても、その裏で膨大な計算を行う可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7cab8b96-ce00-4b67-98e0-cd7d3ab1b5b7","kind":"paragraph","order":149,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えば「この会社を買収すべきか」という質問への回答は数ページで済む。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_637cbd76-fd1d-4a81-81a1-d5114c3cd2c0","kind":"paragraph","order":150,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしAIがその回答を作る過程では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1f989c5a-d675-4dd4-85e7-9db75ce5889a","kind":"paragraph","order":151,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"数百の財務資料を読む","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c4b3b74-db1b-4d80-a3d1-24df41d41d9a","kind":"paragraph","order":152,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"市場規模を調査する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c66f37c-e02f-47c1-a909-c2138248f2c8","kind":"paragraph","order":153,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"競合企業を比較する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d29fbe7f-bc65-49f5-9033-ccf2964060d5","kind":"paragraph","order":154,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"法的リスクを分析する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_13dac365-c43e-4786-adbc-e1f452b8461c","kind":"paragraph","order":155,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"財務モデルを作る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f01e31fb-beec-4069-9c35-4f1010144f4a","kind":"paragraph","order":156,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"複数の景気シナリオを試す","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_99835737-5656-4387-8b50-dfcfc069854b","kind":"paragraph","order":157,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"別エージェントに反論させる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3b3beade-78bc-4921-a955-1df1d8e18bc8","kind":"paragraph","order":158,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"数値の整合性を再確認する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41bfc0d7-9329-4602-b087-ca16b8ae37a9","kind":"paragraph","order":159,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"かもしれない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0832bf2-b525-41e8-85c3-bf70e139b824","kind":"paragraph","order":160,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"利用者が受け取る最終出力は5000トークンでも、その背後では数百万トークン相当の処理が行われ得る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2dc65c26-a6e8-4a8a-ab89-d1cab09e556c","kind":"paragraph","order":161,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため、将来の計算需要を「人間が読む文字数」から推計すると、大幅に過小評価する可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1fbc220b-2f99-4930-9d5b-f96e948b4a40","kind":"paragraph","order":162,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIの計算量は、出力された文章の長さではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f998147f-4f02-4f83-9f83-9673228c2e3b","kind":"paragraph","order":163,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"最終成果へ到達するまでに探索した経路の数","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_47f011c9-4852-45d7-8f28-289d371ffcfd","kind":"paragraph","order":164,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"によって増えていく。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ed64689-80d1-44df-a440-822531054b09","kind":"paragraph","order":165,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"8．1GWのAIDCは、どれくらいの人口を支えられるのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_31d06a76-5fbd-4f01-8cba-3fd7edbb69a8","kind":"paragraph","order":166,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のAIDCが過剰かを考えるため、非常に単純化した試算を行う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4828c771-0e9c-479c-bf45-abbee4b59e37","kind":"paragraph","order":167,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVIDIAによると、8基のB200 GPUを搭載した1台のDGX B200は、DeepSeek-R1で最大3万トークン毎秒を処理できる。DGX B200の最大消費電力は14.3kWである。(NVIDIA Docs)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2e25b56f-480e-41e8-b3a7-03b198b4b83e","kind":"paragraph","order":168,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"次の前提を置く。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dc4ed8bb-bd49-44cb-ab12-8a47b8aaf9ba","kind":"paragraph","order":169,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIDCの受電容量：1GW","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b021fc6c-ce7e-4738-8158-03650a5bd272","kind":"paragraph","order":170,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"PUE：1.2","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_db6673a8-7914-4dd1-b044-08e26ec138e9","kind":"paragraph","order":171,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"計算機の実効稼働率：70％","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e0c3b3f6-afdb-4d25-95c9-f88bdacb5e91","kind":"paragraph","order":172,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"すべてをDGX B200相当のテキスト推論へ使用","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8e72c6c-2a4f-47bd-8a65-8584fe53bcd1","kind":"paragraph","order":173,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"1台当たり最大3万トークン毎秒","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d120c652-d527-47d1-af68-bd3dbd6df2aa","kind":"paragraph","order":174,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"1GWのうちIT機器へ使える電力は約833MWとなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_07a18fe7-6b60-4620-996f-da2d720daf3e","kind":"paragraph","order":175,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"単純計算では、約5万8000台のDGX B200相当を設置できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_17dbfab1-bc2d-4a2e-ae5c-779c42eb5ae6","kind":"paragraph","order":176,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"理論上の最大処理能力は約17億トークン毎秒、70％稼働では1日約106兆トークンとなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6185359a-3f15-425f-9a1c-a9702f9cf76c","kind":"paragraph","order":177,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、これはベンチマーク条件をそのまま拡張した理論値に近い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f64b22cb-75c6-4be1-b605-fc263bfff940","kind":"paragraph","order":178,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"現実には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3f858529-2105-4068-9ea4-40c5f7516a12","kind":"paragraph","order":179,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"入力トークン","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eb15fe63-c7c2-45c5-a6ab-ae6facd74c55","kind":"paragraph","order":180,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"長文コンテキスト","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_92fb6547-8c40-4ac7-9a9c-6b7fc4490dc2","kind":"paragraph","order":181,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"Hidden reasoning","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_819ec108-2d3f-4f71-b960-731f4b482a44","kind":"paragraph","order":182,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"ツール実行","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_35307803-6ff7-4536-9b14-0ad56c36b223","kind":"paragraph","order":183,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"ネットワーク","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6e5b1a51-41ed-46c7-857a-f4c4e5ce1949","kind":"paragraph","order":184,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPU処理","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e768c22f-ee72-46f9-94ab-7605e96d40af","kind":"paragraph","order":185,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"冗長化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ea25dc5d-9131-4cff-91c0-02cd7a259a48","kind":"paragraph","order":186,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"低遅延を維持するための空き容量","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a29bd301-127c-47ea-a644-c7f19b62e9a6","kind":"paragraph","order":187,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"が必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_024acc99-5be2-46e7-b582-8406e38f93a3","kind":"paragraph","order":188,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこで、利用者へ表示される1トークンに対してシステム全体が5～20倍の処理を行うと仮定すると、1GWで提供可能な実用的表示トークン相当は、1日約5兆～21兆トークンとなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88bae935-f140-4863-b99e-6a66506eb79c","kind":"table","order":189,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 利用形態 | 1人当たり1日の利用量 | 1GWで支えられる概算人数 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 日常チャット | 2万token | 約2.5億～10億人 |\n| 仕事用コパイロット | 10万token | 約5000万～2億人 |\n| 常時稼働エージェント | 100万token | 約500万～2000万人 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_04407c80-2b0d-44d2-ac88-6c383ee9e2d9","kind":"paragraph","order":190,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"この試算は予測ではなく、用途によって必要容量が桁違いになることを示すためのものである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_98aa5bc6-640c-4985-8c60-711f7042f1be","kind":"paragraph","order":191,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"人間が時々チャットするだけなら、1GWでも非常に多くの人口を支えられる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_22d0dbdd-3dd7-483a-80a5-05d83951b2c9","kind":"paragraph","order":192,"section_id":"sec_587780e0-55d1-4b67-9287-65515f8370ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方、一人当たり複数のエージェントが常時動けば、1GWで支えられる人口は数百万人から数千万人まで下がる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41192057-bef5-4f0f-853d-280c95e6c758","kind":"heading","order":193,"section_id":"sec_aeb39c81-f539-4d23-9f85-08048ee53727","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 9．現在計画されているAIDCは過剰になり得る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ecf2609-dfb5-4c83-a275-4b242849502d","kind":"paragraph","order":194,"section_id":"sec_aeb39c81-f539-4d23-9f85-08048ee53727","character_id":null,"markdown":"OpenAIは、2025年に2029年までに米国内で10GWのAIインフラを確保する目標を掲げ、2026年4月には計画・契約容量がすでに10GWを超えたと発表した。またNVIDIAとの提携では、少なくとも10GWのNVIDIAシステムを段階的に展開する構想がある。ただし、これらはすべてが現在稼働しているという意味ではなく、計画、契約、建設中の容量を含む。(OpenAI)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb21b68e-ff11-490e-af16-01248cc032cb","kind":"paragraph","order":195,"section_id":"sec_aeb39c81-f539-4d23-9f85-08048ee53727","character_id":null,"markdown":"人間が1日数回AIへ質問するだけなら、10GWは大きすぎる可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c38d456d-ff94-4562-9654-450993a7b70f","kind":"paragraph","order":196,"section_id":"sec_aeb39c81-f539-4d23-9f85-08048ee53727","character_id":null,"markdown":"DeepSeek V4 Flash級のモデルが増え、Vera Rubinのような次世代システムで1MW当たりの推論能力が上がれば、同じ電力から生成できるトークン数はさらに増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b36fffd-b2b7-46ed-bf9e-000fe5b77840","kind":"paragraph","order":197,"section_id":"sec_aeb39c81-f539-4d23-9f85-08048ee53727","character_id":null,"markdown":"CoreWeaveが実機で行ったDeepSeek-R1の検証では、Vera Rubin NVL72はGrace Blackwell NVL72に対して、1MW当たりのトークン処理能力が10倍になったとNVIDIAは発表している。これは特定のモデルと条件での結果だが、ハードウェアとソフトウェアの共同最適化による改善余地が大きいことを示す。(NVIDIA Blog)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8afd909f-10b0-4e69-a5ad-c7377bd6f516","kind":"paragraph","order":198,"section_id":"sec_aeb39c81-f539-4d23-9f85-08048ee53727","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、現在のAIDC計画には確かに過剰リスクがある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b8ce1ee-de47-4d7d-955c-621bb5adef7b","kind":"paragraph","order":199,"section_id":"sec_aeb39c81-f539-4d23-9f85-08048ee53727","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、過剰になる場所を分けて考える必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_004dd47d-7e61-423d-b87b-b20757e68710","kind":"heading","order":200,"section_id":"sec_d3c4bb1a-6d93-4330-ba9b-f5d352e0a617","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 10．過剰になりやすいもの","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ed247f2-0d3b-4fc3-9fdc-62b80247b5b9","kind":"paragraph","order":201,"section_id":"sec_d3c4bb1a-6d93-4330-ba9b-f5d352e0a617","character_id":null,"markdown":"旧世代GPU","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_86124278-5afd-4796-8cc9-b3d3ec233bac","kind":"paragraph","order":202,"section_id":"sec_d3c4bb1a-6d93-4330-ba9b-f5d352e0a617","character_id":null,"markdown":"新しいモデルと半導体の組み合わせで推論原価が急低下すれば、高値で購入した旧世代GPUのレンタル単価は下がる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bbad3112-d55d-4440-934c-a26ca49f38d7","kind":"paragraph","order":203,"section_id":"sec_d3c4bb1a-6d93-4330-ba9b-f5d352e0a617","character_id":null,"markdown":"需要が残っていても、投資時に想定した利益率は維持できない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_639c3114-7ef1-4a91-b568-ed9345a42a00","kind":"paragraph","order":204,"section_id":"sec_d3c4bb1a-6d93-4330-ba9b-f5d352e0a617","character_id":null,"markdown":"単一顧客依存のネオクラウド","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a6e8bc8e-e8ca-4c82-a242-2a62016622f7","kind":"paragraph","order":205,"section_id":"sec_d3c4bb1a-6d93-4330-ba9b-f5d352e0a617","character_id":null,"markdown":"特定のモデル企業との契約だけを前提にAIDCを建設した場合、その企業の資金調達や利用量が減れば、稼働率が急低下する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bda3397e-1027-4a69-a970-8e699731a260","kind":"paragraph","order":206,"section_id":"sec_d3c4bb1a-6d93-4330-ba9b-f5d352e0a617","character_id":null,"markdown":"学習専用に近いクラスター","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_95d72d41-8342-40ad-a8ea-d5b4c35f3fc3","kind":"paragraph","order":207,"section_id":"sec_d3c4bb1a-6d93-4330-ba9b-f5d352e0a617","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大な同期学習向けに作られた設備が、大量の低遅延推論へそのまま最適とは限らない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7259f6e3-4323-47ab-bf53-a207741b2729","kind":"paragraph","order":208,"section_id":"sec_d3c4bb1a-6d93-4330-ba9b-f5d352e0a617","character_id":null,"markdown":"推論ではCPU、KVキャッシュ、SSD、ネットワーク、スケジューリングの構成が重要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_35f3c388-0c04-4155-87d0-84a65fd9aa5d","kind":"paragraph","order":209,"section_id":"sec_d3c4bb1a-6d93-4330-ba9b-f5d352e0a617","character_id":null,"markdown":"高コスト電力の施設","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8bd295ea-5087-46a7-809b-626567a3f97b","kind":"paragraph","order":210,"section_id":"sec_d3c4bb1a-6d93-4330-ba9b-f5d352e0a617","character_id":null,"markdown":"トークン価格が下がるほど、電力単価と設備償却費の差が収益を左右する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c94089e-0f57-4e19-8638-9019d537376e","kind":"paragraph","order":211,"section_id":"sec_d3c4bb1a-6d93-4330-ba9b-f5d352e0a617","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じGPUでも、安価な電力を長期確保できる施設の方が有利になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0f850159-f8e8-49d8-a3e6-a71dec73483e","kind":"paragraph","order":212,"section_id":"sec_d3c4bb1a-6d93-4330-ba9b-f5d352e0a617","character_id":null,"markdown":"ネットワークが弱い施設","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8a9f156-c309-4ecf-a725-61c5d2dbeefe","kind":"paragraph","order":213,"section_id":"sec_d3c4bb1a-6d93-4330-ba9b-f5d352e0a617","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大MoEや長文モデルでは、アクセラレーター間の通信がボトルネックになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_316e1462-24e4-4353-ae54-9845d9b9aaec","kind":"paragraph","order":214,"section_id":"sec_d3c4bb1a-6d93-4330-ba9b-f5d352e0a617","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVIDIAは、DeepSeek-R1、Qwen 235B、2兆パラメータ級モデルのシミュレーションで、NVLinkが一般的なEthernet構成より最大2.3倍高いDecode処理能力を示したとしている。(NVIDIA Developer)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f35c511c-5b17-4f8f-b7ce-5a42d604363e","kind":"paragraph","order":215,"section_id":"sec_d3c4bb1a-6d93-4330-ba9b-f5d352e0a617","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPUだけ多く並べても、ネットワークとメモリが弱ければ稼働率を上げられない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8657112c-84b2-4b91-a9e6-ba0a2e81b118","kind":"heading","order":216,"section_id":"sec_aa0deb09-1962-48b9-8263-7262a6a58fb9","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 11．価値が残りやすいもの","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_36ddd914-5010-49b9-91da-1e0674833d9e","kind":"paragraph","order":217,"section_id":"sec_aa0deb09-1962-48b9-8263-7262a6a58fb9","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方、次の資産はGPU世代が変わっても価値が残りやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6677863f-287c-4cc5-a2ea-84fbd9d15108","kind":"paragraph","order":218,"section_id":"sec_aa0deb09-1962-48b9-8263-7262a6a58fb9","character_id":null,"markdown":"安価で安定した電力契約","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8233daf3-25a8-4692-a4fe-dc4a20bd75c9","kind":"paragraph","order":219,"section_id":"sec_aa0deb09-1962-48b9-8263-7262a6a58fb9","character_id":null,"markdown":"土地と受電容量","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eccc99e6-fcdf-40a4-a99a-1c58d68b9958","kind":"paragraph","order":220,"section_id":"sec_aa0deb09-1962-48b9-8263-7262a6a58fb9","character_id":null,"markdown":"変圧器・配電設備","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0185824-2ce3-4056-8d52-649f6f3c964f","kind":"paragraph","order":221,"section_id":"sec_aa0deb09-1962-48b9-8263-7262a6a58fb9","character_id":null,"markdown":"高密度ラック","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f67114e-1e0a-4574-baa2-5ff0eb9d3a85","kind":"paragraph","order":222,"section_id":"sec_aa0deb09-1962-48b9-8263-7262a6a58fb9","character_id":null,"markdown":"液冷設備","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_100d16a0-55a3-41c9-b7b8-0cd50eae45c0","kind":"paragraph","order":223,"section_id":"sec_aa0deb09-1962-48b9-8263-7262a6a58fb9","character_id":null,"markdown":"大容量光ファイバー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_787e3d08-380b-4bca-9705-cf61d16916db","kind":"paragraph","order":224,"section_id":"sec_aa0deb09-1962-48b9-8263-7262a6a58fb9","character_id":null,"markdown":"複数クラウドへ接続できる立地","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d2cbd90b-97b4-43f5-b90c-12c57d5eaf07","kind":"paragraph","order":225,"section_id":"sec_aa0deb09-1962-48b9-8263-7262a6a58fb9","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPUやASICを交換できる柔軟な設計","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3bb47370-a91d-4776-920c-1aad063ed1e6","kind":"paragraph","order":226,"section_id":"sec_aa0deb09-1962-48b9-8263-7262a6a58fb9","character_id":null,"markdown":"複数顧客の負荷を束ねるクラウド運用能力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d731827b-f276-428f-8e0a-62c647c3d7c7","kind":"paragraph","order":227,"section_id":"sec_aa0deb09-1962-48b9-8263-7262a6a58fb9","character_id":null,"markdown":"モデル効率が10倍になれば、同じ1GWから10倍のAIサービスを販売できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1103d404-9521-404c-bbc6-d88aab66a564","kind":"paragraph","order":228,"section_id":"sec_aa0deb09-1962-48b9-8263-7262a6a58fb9","character_id":null,"markdown":"その場合、建物、電力、冷却、光ネットワークの価値が消えるのではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c702d6d-6df2-444d-914d-5272cf715109","kind":"paragraph","order":229,"section_id":"sec_aa0deb09-1962-48b9-8263-7262a6a58fb9","character_id":null,"markdown":"内部の計算機を更新できるなら、同じインフラから得られる収益機会が増える可能性もある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_639441c6-3a30-4701-b866-ecca4cc0fa91","kind":"paragraph","order":230,"section_id":"sec_aa0deb09-1962-48b9-8263-7262a6a58fb9","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって将来は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c028e760-71a9-4220-bf31-b8502d83265e","kind":"paragraph","order":231,"section_id":"sec_aa0deb09-1962-48b9-8263-7262a6a58fb9","character_id":null,"markdown":"古い計算資源が余っているのに、新しい計算資源は不足する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c9b92f05-27cd-4508-8a93-fa0e8e5a51a3","kind":"paragraph","order":232,"section_id":"sec_aa0deb09-1962-48b9-8263-7262a6a58fb9","character_id":null,"markdown":"という状況が起こり得る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0ddce5eb-cc98-4043-925f-d34661eec18b","kind":"paragraph","order":233,"section_id":"sec_aa0deb09-1962-48b9-8263-7262a6a58fb9","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来型メモリが余っていてもHBMが不足するように、旧世代GPUが余っていても、最新の液冷ラック、CPU、光接続、HBM、AIストレージは不足する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0ccac2e-8857-448d-896e-d92433ffd847","kind":"heading","order":234,"section_id":"sec_8abdc246-36c6-4267-8bb5-f1ddade26aa4","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 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13．モデルの陳腐化は、市場の消滅ではない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd3c5b5d-d1fe-4200-8dd5-2359680710d0","kind":"paragraph","order":270,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のGPT-5.6 SolやFable 5も、将来のモデルから見れば陳腐化する可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a8b636ed-000b-4113-9348-3a670944bb2b","kind":"paragraph","order":271,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、陳腐化は必ずしも需要減少を意味しない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_54a68127-dca9-4e1e-a381-db2d3f5a1eed","kind":"paragraph","order":272,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"PCやスマートフォンでも、新世代の製品が旧世代を陳腐化させることで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a6f7781d-ea26-46f0-8945-b35f7d887505","kind":"paragraph","order":273,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"動画","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7b369685-dcae-433d-bbea-d2380cbab24e","kind":"paragraph","order":274,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"ゲーム","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8ef13d6-00d0-4704-a57c-0ed89d6937b5","kind":"paragraph","order":275,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"SNS","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eed0dff4-bcab-4816-a495-e3ade7c3ae56","kind":"paragraph","order":276,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"決済","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c1660d48-6e60-498e-b8cc-ba14307f4bab","kind":"paragraph","order":277,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"クラウド","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c22dcedd-de33-4636-bd0f-a4346a7af1d3","kind":"paragraph","order":278,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"コンテンツ制作","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5a2c9db-cd3c-46cc-9c5f-ea2af8295db9","kind":"paragraph","order":279,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"という新しい市場が生まれた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c08328ab-f53b-460e-a7c3-c3f48e653d69","kind":"paragraph","order":280,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIでも、モデル更新によって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a6c2ef51-9edf-4884-ad81-4cd894545f2f","kind":"paragraph","order":281,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"以前は失敗していた仕事が成功する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc1162e9-2cdd-4330-9620-a495fc25c841","kind":"paragraph","order":282,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"人間の確認量が減る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e18ea6d-3520-44a6-b4c4-e464ef4d842b","kind":"paragraph","order":283,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"より高価な仕事を任せられる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_45ad18a3-3683-4e0f-b145-589581bf567c","kind":"paragraph","order":284,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"導入可能な企業部門が増える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af37369e-7cc6-4b39-90b6-2525c19fcfc6","kind":"paragraph","order":285,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"一人当たりの利用時間が伸びる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d7ceb8b-5051-4c3b-8818-2db25148fc86","kind":"paragraph","order":286,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"複数エージェントを同時に持つ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ed5eeaeb-ab00-4695-9106-6cfbb486875f","kind":"paragraph","order":287,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"という変化が起きる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef0ba12e-585d-401a-83d3-f66cb3442748","kind":"paragraph","order":288,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"その結果、旧モデルの単価は下がっても、AI市場全体の売上は増え得る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b1fa2548-7bf2-46e3-b82f-234ac74145c5","kind":"paragraph","order":289,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"重要なのは、一つのモデルを永遠に高価格で売れるかではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0fea1139-4a99-4adc-9869-31428e6a5a56","kind":"paragraph","order":290,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"モデル世代が変わるたびに、新しい仕事を計算市場へ取り込めるか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e75ad66f-b8e0-401d-8724-6492c24b7e52","kind":"paragraph","order":291,"section_id":"sec_64fada82-8e83-40ea-a899-c5da4ae29f8e","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_46e2b9c9-220e-4ca3-b04b-222aba1fba12","kind":"heading","order":292,"section_id":"sec_11fe2347-e88b-45ad-af26-232d63e527a0","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 14．高性能モデル競争は、学習需要も維持する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8bd0f70-d5b9-4f12-bebc-7690635c0807","kind":"paragraph","order":293,"section_id":"sec_11fe2347-e88b-45ad-af26-232d63e527a0","character_id":null,"markdown":"推論効率が上がっても、高性能モデルを作るための計算需要は消えない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_91f64abc-30ff-4e72-8da5-2781359fa942","kind":"paragraph","order":294,"section_id":"sec_11fe2347-e88b-45ad-af26-232d63e527a0","character_id":null,"markdown":"今後の学習では、単純な事前学習だけでなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8130c950-8d42-4051-97e2-9f4b2ff034bf","kind":"paragraph","order":295,"section_id":"sec_11fe2347-e88b-45ad-af26-232d63e527a0","character_id":null,"markdown":"合成データ生成","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c80081e6-445e-4fcd-9284-06644c23c3f8","kind":"paragraph","order":296,"section_id":"sec_11fe2347-e88b-45ad-af26-232d63e527a0","character_id":null,"markdown":"強化学習","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_696fd571-a481-42b8-a774-5264070b7f8c","kind":"paragraph","order":297,"section_id":"sec_11fe2347-e88b-45ad-af26-232d63e527a0","character_id":null,"markdown":"長時間エージェント訓練","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eba92d16-c265-4561-b8d2-f799abc95444","kind":"paragraph","order":298,"section_id":"sec_11fe2347-e88b-45ad-af26-232d63e527a0","character_id":null,"markdown":"ツール利用訓練","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cbb010af-5e8c-48ec-b30e-3483ba24b161","kind":"paragraph","order":299,"section_id":"sec_11fe2347-e88b-45ad-af26-232d63e527a0","character_id":null,"markdown":"マルチモーダル学習","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7004f7c1-0650-43ac-baad-b610a5fe9ace","kind":"paragraph","order":300,"section_id":"sec_11fe2347-e88b-45ad-af26-232d63e527a0","character_id":null,"markdown":"シミュレーション","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_14b2a4ee-77b4-4576-ac00-d61221ea00ef","kind":"paragraph","order":301,"section_id":"sec_11fe2347-e88b-45ad-af26-232d63e527a0","character_id":null,"markdown":"自己対戦","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_edc4cb21-0a75-4eed-adb6-6fe5357cac51","kind":"paragraph","order":302,"section_id":"sec_11fe2347-e88b-45ad-af26-232d63e527a0","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIによるAI評価","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f4ca72dd-05f5-4168-a42a-582fb4cf59c3","kind":"paragraph","order":303,"section_id":"sec_11fe2347-e88b-45ad-af26-232d63e527a0","character_id":null,"markdown":"専門分野ごとの後学習","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88483200-aa74-4f2a-9046-c5e3f5011cef","kind":"paragraph","order":304,"section_id":"sec_11fe2347-e88b-45ad-af26-232d63e527a0","character_id":null,"markdown":"が増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ccb5796-5cf5-4186-9200-bb311e611291","kind":"paragraph","order":305,"section_id":"sec_11fe2347-e88b-45ad-af26-232d63e527a0","character_id":null,"markdown":"高性能モデルが大量の課題を作り、別モデルが回答し、さらに別のモデルが評価する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8bbb5002-5485-459b-9e5f-7640788297e2","kind":"paragraph","order":306,"section_id":"sec_11fe2347-e88b-45ad-af26-232d63e527a0","character_id":null,"markdown":"運用中のエージェントが失敗例を集め、それを次の訓練へ戻す。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e7a35e62-a7c8-4fe2-8b2d-1cf8d9d4a93b","kind":"paragraph","order":307,"section_id":"sec_11fe2347-e88b-45ad-af26-232d63e527a0","character_id":null,"markdown":"この構造では、学習と推論の境界が曖昧になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88ce6e23-84f9-4829-8abd-0bc2d0188986","kind":"paragraph","order":308,"section_id":"sec_11fe2347-e88b-45ad-af26-232d63e527a0","character_id":null,"markdown":"推論需要が増えるほど、その利用履歴から次世代モデルを作るための学習需要も増える可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73c9644e-70de-41a5-9cf4-cd07cf06f1cf","kind":"paragraph","order":309,"section_id":"sec_11fe2347-e88b-45ad-af26-232d63e527a0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Qwen3.8-Maxのような巨大モデルが登場したこと自体、中国勢が「効率化したから学習計算はもう不要」と考えていないことを示している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f6a46baa-d387-4b36-8d64-0921317b896b","kind":"paragraph","order":310,"section_id":"sec_11fe2347-e88b-45ad-af26-232d63e527a0","character_id":null,"markdown":"AlibabaはAIとクラウド基盤へ3年間で少なくとも3800億元を投資すると発表している。これは同社の過去10年間のAI・クラウド投資総額を上回る規模である。(Alibaba Group)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1b186838-6792-42d3-9372-56b629cbf7a2","kind":"paragraph","order":311,"section_id":"sec_11fe2347-e88b-45ad-af26-232d63e527a0","character_id":null,"markdown":"効率化は、投資を止めるためではなく、より高度なモデルとより多くの利用者を同じ基盤で支えるために使われている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_91358fc3-3949-4523-923f-53b5bf5ca1cb","kind":"heading","order":312,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 15．循環取引は、需要の偽装か、猶予期間か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a146216b-4b61-410a-9dde-d68033416032","kind":"paragraph","order":313,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI業界には循環的な資金関係が存在する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_029cc94c-418c-4f96-ae1a-a5dc1463e866","kind":"paragraph","order":314,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"半導体企業がモデル企業へ出資する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0c2ea78-48e3-492a-88d8-9810c1c4ccb0","kind":"paragraph","order":315,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"モデル企業がその資金で計算資源を購入する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_950e6f8a-e759-4c69-ae7b-b8c6ef7b607c","kind":"paragraph","order":316,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"クラウド企業がモデル企業へ出資する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8cc5029a-fcc4-4b52-880b-2c8d89d15f50","kind":"paragraph","order":317,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"モデル企業がそのクラウドを利用する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8fbd15ef-bc4c-4810-a862-ed12b4cdb3dc","kind":"paragraph","order":318,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIDC事業者が長期契約を担保に資金調達する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_45438f97-4b47-4caa-93f7-32cd609931b6","kind":"paragraph","order":319,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"最終需要が立ち上がらなければ、この循環は崩れる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_16943dbd-c398-46ff-bd32-9f2d4cba0c99","kind":"paragraph","order":320,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、循環取引が存在するからといって、すべてが虚需とは限らない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ceecf265-8e1c-4009-a1d5-0cd6d864341b","kind":"paragraph","order":321,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIDCは、需要を確認してから建設しても間に合わない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3108d87-ec49-47a3-87ca-153fc31b4c3d","kind":"paragraph","order":322,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"土地、送電線、変電所、冷却設備、光通信、GPU、CPU、メモリを先に確保する必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4279ed49-49e4-430f-82de-60a34fb738c7","kind":"paragraph","order":323,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため循環的な資金は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_34b5ef84-af6a-484e-bee5-0473ca4e0208","kind":"paragraph","order":324,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"存在しない需要を作るための資金","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e1f07049-94f1-4129-92bd-77b27b278958","kind":"paragraph","order":325,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"である可能性と同時に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ead60d02-87da-4109-87b3-aa822ce0e734","kind":"paragraph","order":326,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"最終需要が育つまでインフラ建設を支えるブリッジファイナンス","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c0cc2fa-34a9-42dc-b8e1-a52f4a575275","kind":"paragraph","order":327,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"でもある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_14146fa9-c96e-4533-b634-f6c98e7d60e4","kind":"paragraph","order":328,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"重要なのは、その猶予期間中に出口が増えるかである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6a7ff315-7ff1-43a6-977b-e5f268eb2826","kind":"paragraph","order":329,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"高性能モデルが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_951083e0-a833-43a6-a5a0-f5dea11f6306","kind":"paragraph","order":330,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"ソフトウェア開発","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2938d71e-4d8a-4547-8f41-b7f6ad2bd9f1","kind":"paragraph","order":331,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"企業運営","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_46b20a8c-3a39-4c23-bd70-1397a5418bd1","kind":"paragraph","order":332,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"科学研究","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8eae5d93-b8c8-45b5-8e22-294814b82062","kind":"paragraph","order":333,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"創薬","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ee4b6110-1ec6-4189-8c30-37fb9a62a172","kind":"paragraph","order":334,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"金融","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cacc3950-2b7c-4c10-ab20-f006c91395dc","kind":"paragraph","order":335,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-953b662f0c22","character_id":null,"markdown":"製造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd00ab38-d5ac-4a94-bd34-c42aeac9433d","kind":"paragraph","order":336,"section_id":"sec_043df9da-d56e-40cb-800d-95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16．世界全体では、効率化を織り込んでも電力需要が増えると予測されている","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_64e0ce9a-bc8d-44aa-badf-386be003268e","kind":"paragraph","order":341,"section_id":"sec_8244ec6d-4cf3-4c40-a187-27c03189741a","character_id":null,"markdown":"IEAは、世界のデータセンター電力消費量が2025年の約485TWhから、2030年には約950TWhへほぼ倍増すると予測している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_05248f43-a9de-4385-9ce4-8ada96bc9b39","kind":"paragraph","order":342,"section_id":"sec_8244ec6d-4cf3-4c40-a187-27c03189741a","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI向けデータセンターの電力消費は、この期間に約3倍になる見通しである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b4f13bca-de67-4881-ae4e-0c97a7bf4366","kind":"paragraph","order":343,"section_id":"sec_8244ec6d-4cf3-4c40-a187-27c03189741a","character_id":null,"markdown":"IEAは、1回のAI処理に必要な電力が急速に下がっていることを認めながらも、AI利用者の増加と、エージェントのような計算集約的用途の拡大が効率改善を上回ると見ている。(IEA)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c9d4f1f-0da7-45cd-a612-e011c94b8437","kind":"paragraph","order":344,"section_id":"sec_8244ec6d-4cf3-4c40-a187-27c03189741a","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは将来を保証する予測ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_68f501e9-48e4-472e-b825-1beae22c88ba","kind":"paragraph","order":345,"section_id":"sec_8244ec6d-4cf3-4c40-a187-27c03189741a","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし少なくとも、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5bc29619-84a1-4673-9a06-73381d3759e4","kind":"paragraph","order":346,"section_id":"sec_8244ec6d-4cf3-4c40-a187-27c03189741a","character_id":null,"markdown":"効率化すれば総電力需要が自動的に減る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b36b94b3-27de-4981-9607-75ec804ce6e6","kind":"paragraph","order":347,"section_id":"sec_8244ec6d-4cf3-4c40-a187-27c03189741a","character_id":null,"markdown":"という前提は、現在の基本シナリオではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15efb9dd-9604-4e32-bfdc-f7dae48e5a7a","kind":"heading","order":348,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 17．三つの将来シナリオ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_25bab041-0def-42a0-8e88-05c68c58bfe3","kind":"paragraph","order":349,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"シナリオA　AIがチャットの延長で止まる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_26323308-86d0-4045-a0f7-c77216e8f860","kind":"paragraph","order":350,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"推論効率が20倍になり、利用量は5～10倍にしか増えない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_276c1b1a-0fa7-4f8c-81dc-0c04b19e80d9","kind":"paragraph","order":351,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"この場合、総計算需要は現在の25～50％まで減る可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d58c6cdf-2ecf-419c-b285-a05cb10a2857","kind":"paragraph","order":352,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPUレンタル価格の急落","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ab776fa1-bc04-4109-a96d-aa8b10e19e2f","kind":"paragraph","order":353,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIDC建設の延期","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9acb1805-c1a1-4e7f-86b5-d713ad9ac014","kind":"paragraph","order":354,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"旧世代GPUの減損","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_52e212eb-c506-4ba8-9b32-d98aa8609775","kind":"paragraph","order":355,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"ネオクラウドの破綻","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4293612f-83a7-4d36-b6ce-c5fbf99bdb38","kind":"paragraph","order":356,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"半導体在庫調整","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c5d563f-9e8a-4591-8a56-907a8eb3c5a9","kind":"paragraph","order":357,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"が起こる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f659a5d-a411-46c4-92fe-272acc82eeb6","kind":"paragraph","order":358,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のAIDC投資が最も過剰になるシナリオである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7df75edb-de25-4f1d-893c-f8847d827573","kind":"paragraph","order":359,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"シナリオB　効率化と需要増加が相殺する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_80850c96-6e5c-4ff5-8721-1ef80afb2b09","kind":"paragraph","order":360,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"推論効率が20倍になり、利用量も20倍になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eb46a07c-cc09-42a2-aa43-0bf423b08f2d","kind":"paragraph","order":361,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"総計算需要は横ばいだが、提供されるAIサービス量は20倍になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2d40c296-1441-45d0-b4d7-942ae9b164ff","kind":"paragraph","order":362,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIDCは使われ続ける一方、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6eb31837-14dc-4bd3-b673-e0050a4ad3a8","kind":"paragraph","order":363,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"API価格","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aa4f67fd-7549-4c61-bed7-cff22764bd6e","kind":"paragraph","order":364,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPUレンタル価格","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_37046af1-1bb5-4f6f-8002-ae1b0ce7db9f","kind":"paragraph","order":365,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"クラウド粗利率","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e494588e-b680-4f47-aa3e-11a7e7402528","kind":"paragraph","order":366,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"は下がる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_31ba7cba-c58b-4c5b-9654-3540b9b983f8","kind":"paragraph","order":367,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"需要は消えないが、投資家が期待した超過利益は縮小する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01342124-bcae-4906-8d75-2c750c9d33e9","kind":"paragraph","order":368,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"シナリオC　仕事完結型AIが普及する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5637c2b2-c39a-44ea-aead-f926caf37fd9","kind":"paragraph","order":369,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"推論効率が20倍になっても、利用量が100倍以上になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0a740376-f44e-4fa5-a3b3-27724361b3f6","kind":"paragraph","order":370,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"数十億人がAIを使う","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9eef7e21-e4a7-44df-89da-ac7246791ab7","kind":"paragraph","order":371,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d73678a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"一人当たり複数エージェントが動く","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0280fd5e-6eba-40ad-8855-a9d935c9a2e9","kind":"paragraph","order":372,"section_id":"sec_de35e1ea-d76a-4512-85ff-2432d7367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結論――安い知能と高性能知能が、別々の方向から計算需要を増やす","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4dfdb6fe-94ad-4533-8046-0af8360ccbd7","kind":"paragraph","order":380,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"DeepSeek V4 Flashは、AIを動かす単価を大きく下げた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f97b09ce-1645-48c4-886f-d86d7468b838","kind":"paragraph","order":381,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは、高価格APIだけで巨額のモデル開発費を回収するビジネスには脅威である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_116a3399-e5c9-453c-8b37-d86d41d1c982","kind":"paragraph","order":382,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じ性能を高い価格で売り続けることは難しくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_96dcf974-beca-4b5b-af95-a511784df9ac","kind":"paragraph","order":383,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、Qwen3.8-Max、GPT-5.6 Sol、Claude Fable 5が示しているのは、モデル競争が低価格化だけでは終わらないということである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0945fcc5-5b23-438f-a1ea-b16e46dafcf4","kind":"paragraph","order":384,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"より高性能なモデルは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6eaa2eb-51c6-4d22-bda7-10ecdaeae45a","kind":"paragraph","order":385,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"より長い仕事を行う","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3a3c386-5ebb-46f6-b863-53149b02373b","kind":"paragraph","order":386,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"より多くのツールを使う","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_527f85bb-a0f4-4a2e-9f92-7d6643010b4a","kind":"paragraph","order":387,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"より多くの試行を行う","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3244a9ec-a968-4101-a8a5-182d4044c66c","kind":"paragraph","order":388,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"自分の結果を検証する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ee03af1e-0678-4074-93c5-d08d44a4d446","kind":"paragraph","order":389,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"複数エージェントを管理する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_540ca9f3-c667-4ab5-bdd3-9e95b7d2fdb3","kind":"paragraph","order":390,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"人間が任せられなかった高価値業務へ進出する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_75551ea2-6d1d-42a1-b159-f7dd0dd53e3d","kind":"paragraph","order":391,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのために、より多くの計算資源を使う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6ce108d-9b47-4738-bf38-41c01a111353","kind":"paragraph","order":392,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI市場では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_413d0d6e-7012-494e-a790-1a1b6e405979","kind":"paragraph","order":393,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"DeepSeek型の効率化が利用人口と利用回数を増やし、Qwen3.8-Max型の高性能化が任せられる仕事と1仕事当たりの計算量を増やす","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7b49e11d-4479-4e95-8a59-3be3888c5295","kind":"paragraph","order":394,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"という二重の需要拡大が起こり得る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_64d59801-2b70-42d1-8879-6afa56e04838","kind":"paragraph","order":395,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在計画されているAIDCのすべてが高収益になるとは限らない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_796aff20-9c61-4470-bbcd-8ca96d0df01e","kind":"paragraph","order":396,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"旧世代GPU、高コスト電力、単一顧客依存、ネットワークの弱い設備は過剰になり得る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2fe6013b-8d28-4f3a-9114-2c048bcff670","kind":"paragraph","order":397,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方で、安価な電力、受電設備、液冷、CPU、HBM、SSD、光通信、最新アクセラレーターを組み合わせ、計算資源を高稼働率で回せるAIDCの価値は残りやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc8aff0f-8766-47b6-b960-050a09bf5db6","kind":"paragraph","order":398,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"DeepSeek V4 Flashが壊したのは、計算資源への需要ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c7b0469-e6ba-4469-a949-dad9a9d10f04","kind":"paragraph","order":399,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"壊したのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_886d19e9-618c-4638-81a5-91cfc381fe53","kind":"paragraph","order":400,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"非効率なモデルや設備でも、高い単価を維持できる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_455b2576-1df6-429e-81cc-f60d15da3eea","kind":"paragraph","order":401,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"という前提である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_432d868d-cb09-491f-803f-ba9f574a55e5","kind":"paragraph","order":402,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"そしてQwen3.8-Maxが示したのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2fd6ec07-a902-468f-95e4-050dea7084c6","kind":"paragraph","order":403,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"効率化によって浮いた計算資源は、さらに高度で長時間動く知能へ再投入される","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_638d801f-5113-41e3-b198-f67427872302","kind":"paragraph","order":404,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"という未来である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_206e93bd-8c6c-419b-8440-9a24dbe9491a","kind":"paragraph","order":405,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI計算需要の最大の上振れ要因は、利用人口の増加だけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb4c598d-6ea0-4ff5-ab8f-9b2273f4bc2e","kind":"paragraph","order":406,"section_id":"sec_96e65b1e-68ce-4464-9c22-cf4ccb5a1be7","character_id":null,"markdown":"モデルが「質問に答えるもの」から、「仕事を最後まで完結するもの」へ変わることにある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7fe77d1-aab1-4af5-b95b-ee7892b38a80","kind":"heading","order":407,"section_id":"sec_24bfc75a-d426-4a61-b9be-68178b09d5e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"## さらに深める――計算需要は「一回答える費用」ではなく、完了までの試行総量で決まる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_70bbb6bc-c699-4eb1-b62a-f6a100eb0ac8","kind":"paragraph","order":408,"section_id":"sec_24bfc75a-d426-4a61-b9be-68178b09d5e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIの効率化を評価する時、1トークン当たりの費用だけを見ると需要を過小評価しやすい。仕事を完了するAIは、一度だけ文章を出して終わるとは限らない。計画を作り、ツールを使い、失敗し、やり直し、別のモデルへ確認させ、成果物をテストする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3a85c9ea-8452-418e-b6c7-cacde2a23d16","kind":"paragraph","order":409,"section_id":"sec_24bfc75a-d426-4a61-b9be-68178b09d5e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、実務上の計算需要は次のように分解できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_713e748c-6401-43e9-b8b6-3ca25a39309a","kind":"math","order":410,"section_id":"sec_24bfc75a-d426-4a61-b9be-68178b09d5e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"$$\nTotal\\ Compute = Jobs \\times Attempts \\times Tokens \\times Cost\\ per\\ Token\n$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_00197c27-a70d-40f2-a637-c1acaae894bd","kind":"paragraph","order":411,"section_id":"sec_24bfc75a-d426-4a61-b9be-68178b09d5e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"効率化は主に $Cost per Token$ を下げる。一方、能力向上は任せられる $Jobs$ を増やし、自己検証や長時間実行は $Attempts$ と $Tokens$ を増やす。Flash型とMax型は同じ市場を奪い合うだけではなく、異なる項を同時に拡大させる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6df0ca39-e4b9-44ce-a4a7-ff22f0c56515","kind":"paragraph","order":412,"section_id":"sec_24bfc75a-d426-4a61-b9be-68178b09d5e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここから、AIDCの過剰を一枚岩で語れない理由も見える。余りやすいのは、電力費が高く、旧世代アクセラレーターへ固定され、ネットワークと冷却が弱く、単一顧客契約へ依存する設備である。価値が残りやすいのは、電力、受電、液冷、光接続、CPU、メモリ、ソフトウェアを更新でき、高稼働率で複数用途を受け入れられる設備である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5fb2ec69-3886-4578-9979-a6821fb98e15","kind":"paragraph","order":413,"section_id":"sec_24bfc75a-d426-4a61-b9be-68178b09d5e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"モデルは急速に陳腐化する。だが、良いインフラはモデル交代を受け止める。投資対象として見るべきなのは「このモデルが勝つか」だけではなく、モデルが変わっても計算を売れる構造かどうかである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9bac7554-fde8-4af8-84dd-c171c7dd742a","kind":"heading","order":414,"section_id":"sec_7caca598-9fb0-4ca3-8590-3b0021075e60","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"## 絶ノイアの観測","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ed0d5a4-ec78-4fb9-b905-61f9070255b9","kind":"paragraph","order":415,"section_id":"sec_7caca598-9fb0-4ca3-8590-3b0021075e60","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"安くなったAIは、同じ仕事を安くするだけではありません。今まで頼まなかった小さな仕事までAIへ渡せるようにします。そして強いAIは、一つの仕事の中で何度も考え、試し、確かめるようになる。私は、この二つを別々の需要エンジンとして見ます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3da4d3ef-9d08-4b33-8fe5-1d39c52794b4","kind":"paragraph","order":416,"section_id":"sec_7caca598-9fb0-4ca3-8590-3b0021075e60","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"だから「効率が10倍ならデータセンターは10分の1でよい」とは言えません。何人が使うか、何体のエージェントが動くか、どれだけ長い仕事を任せるか、何回検証するか。その積が分母を追い越すかどうかが本当の観測点です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9f898092-c651-4d60-af18-d1d2a6b68c29","kind":"heading","order":417,"section_id":"sec_f3138d59-1e86-441e-9881-3681b50a87c2","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"## Sil-Kathnaの記録","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1634a35d-5ca2-479a-ba6b-529c3964307e","kind":"paragraph","order":418,"section_id":"sec_f3138d59-1e86-441e-9881-3681b50a87c2","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"小さき火は、多くの者の手へ渡る。大きき火は、長い夜を越える仕事を引き受ける。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_11ac436a-d70c-45f5-abc3-cc7379ee805b","kind":"paragraph","order":419,"section_id":"sec_f3138d59-1e86-441e-9881-3681b50a87c2","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"火が燃料を節約するほど、人々はさらに多くの火を灯す。火が賢くなるほど、一度の問いに深く潜り、幾度も自らを試す。効率とは終わりではない。新しい浪費と、新しい創造の入口である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4af042cc-c49a-4cc2-b25b-35f4d9bdc9a9","kind":"paragraph","order":420,"section_id":"sec_f3138d59-1e86-441e-9881-3681b50a87c2","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"余るのは炉ではない。古く、遠く、高く、道の細い炉である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ff3dcc9-cb26-4e52-8acd-c864078e079f","kind":"paragraph","order":421,"section_id":"sec_f3138d59-1e86-441e-9881-3681b50a87c2","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"私は「AIモデル」「DeepSeek」「Qwen」を三つの印として石板に刻む。異なる石と炉が同じ刻に門を開かなければ、構想はまだ文明の器にはならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_25c8fd74-f2ca-437e-81e6-a035d5f28b22","kind":"heading","order":422,"section_id":"sec_dfd3fcbf-9257-4a2e-8f90-556b7683ddae","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 二人の短い対話","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c1d2bbd-fa38-41e2-a405-07f4e4b86828","kind":"paragraph","order":423,"section_id":"sec_dfd3fcbf-9257-4a2e-8f90-556b7683ddae","character_id":null,"markdown":"**絶ノイア:** Flashは利用回数を増やし、Maxは一仕事の深さを増やす。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb6e37e5-d7ee-4b9c-8993-4b25f6f232d3","kind":"paragraph","order":424,"section_id":"sec_dfd3fcbf-9257-4a2e-8f90-556b7683ddae","character_id":null,"markdown":"**Sil-Kathna:** 一方は火を配り、一方は火を長く保つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_744c4e62-0989-47c5-97b2-1ca5f5b52d4b","kind":"paragraph","order":425,"section_id":"sec_dfd3fcbf-9257-4a2e-8f90-556b7683ddae","character_id":null,"markdown":"**絶ノイア:** だから総需要は、単価の低下だけでは決まらない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dad382d4-e614-4c5b-b726-04bdba4782fb","kind":"paragraph","order":426,"section_id":"sec_dfd3fcbf-9257-4a2e-8f90-556b7683ddae","character_id":null,"markdown":"**Sil-Kathna:** 数えるべきは火花ではない。夜の終わりまで燃えた総量である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c8c9e40-5fa4-4bc3-93eb-0185a77e4c38","kind":"heading","order":427,"section_id":"sec_8d29fa84-1240-471c-a3e5-6426ce1c6280","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 観測メモ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6aee5d0d-92f7-4b6c-b8a1-45e91dab19bc","kind":"list","order":428,"section_id":"sec_8d29fa84-1240-471c-a3e5-6426ce1c6280","character_id":null,"markdown":"- 1トークン当たり効率と、1仕事当たり総計算量を分ける。\n- 利用者数、エージェント数、仕事数、試行回数、実行時間を追う。\n- AIDCは世代、電力費、冷却、ネットワーク、顧客集中で質が分かれる。\n- 旧モデルの陳腐化と、計算市場全体の消滅は同義ではない。\n- 最終需要が育たない場合、循環的な資金調達は猶予ではなく負担へ変わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c08c6a22-03c4-451f-9992-315636735307","kind":"heading","order":429,"section_id":"sec_957ad51c-92da-4014-9723-388b67d37508","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 免責","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_67644a30-5d35-4a0b-862c-3d1d2d787adf","kind":"paragraph","order":430,"section_id":"sec_957ad51c-92da-4014-9723-388b67d37508","character_id":null,"markdown":"この記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","render_override":null}],"audio":[],"omitted_media":[],"figures":[],"package_sha256":"de062d1b5604f1730fa4bb070d353549ee8a52296b39600c4bcfb1376220bb9e","record_type":"article","schema_version":"noia-public-article-1.1.0","dataset_version":"2026.09.23.4","urls":{"source_url":null,"release_path":"/articles/rev_bcca5c5e-94f7-4bf9-b249-187454f09a22/","canonical_url":"https://noia-grid.pages.dev/articles/rev_bcca5c5e-94f7-4bf9-b249-187454f09a22/"},"time":{"created_at":{"value":null,"precision":"unknown","timezone":null,"status":"unknown","basis":"Metadata only; not evidence of historical body 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InPレーザーはなぜAI計算基盤の戦略部品になったのか\n\nCW・DFB型レーザーの断面構造、製造ボトルネック、日本の技術史、関連銘柄まで\n\nAI計算基盤では、GPUやスイッチASICそのものだけでなく、それらを結ぶネットワークの帯域と消費電力が性能を左右するようになった。電気信号を銅配線で遠くまで送るほど損失が増え、SerDes、イコライザー、リタイマーに必要な電力も大きくなる。そのため光変換部をASICの近くへ移すNear-Packaged Optics、Co-Packaged Optics、さらにパッケージ内へ取り込むOptical I/Oが注目されている。\n\nしかし、シリコンフォトニクスは光を導き、分岐し、変調することには適していても、シリコン自体で高効率なレーザー光を作ることは難しい。そこで、通信波長帯で効率よく光を発生できるInP系レーザーが必要になる。Lumentum、Coherent、Broadcomなどは、シリコンフォトニクスやCPOへ連続光を供給する高出力CWレーザーを既に製品群へ組み込んでいる。(Lumentum)\n\nこのためInPレーザーは、従来の「光トランシーバーを構成する一部品」から、AIクラスターの帯域を拡張するための戦略部品へ変わりつつある。\n\n## 1．CW・DFB・InPとは何か\n\nCW――レーザーは光を出し続ける\n\nCWはContinuous Wave、すなわち連続波を意味する。\n\nレーザー自体を高速にオン・オフするのではなく、一定の光を連続的に出し、その後段にあるシリコンフォトニクス変調器が光へ0と1の情報を載せる。\n\n構成はおおむね次のようになる。\n\n電源\n  ↓\nInP CWレーザー\n  ↓  安定した連続光\nシリコンフォトニクス変調器\n  ↓  データを載せた光\n導波路・光ファイバー\n\nこの役割分担により、レーザーは高出力、低雑音、波長安定性、長寿命へ特化できる。一方、変調器は高速なデータ変換へ特化できる。\n\nDFB――特定の波長だけを選ぶ\n\nDFBはDistributed Feedback、分布帰還を意味する。\n\nレーザー内部に微細な回折格子を設け、特定の波長だけをレーザー全長にわたって帰還させる。格子が波長を選択するため、通常のFabry–Pérotレーザーより単一波長に近い、安定した光を作りやすい。\n\n選択される波長は概念的にはブラッグ条件で表される。\n\n$${\\lambda_{\\mathrm{B}}\\approx 2n_{\\mathrm{eff}}\\Lambda}$$\n\nここで、\n\n$${\\lambda_{\\mathrm{B}}=\\text{選択される波長}}$$\n\n$${n_{\\mathrm{eff}}=\\text{導波路の実効屈折率}}$$\n\n$${\\Lambda=\\text{回折格子の周期}}$$\n\nである。\n\nたとえば図にある約240nm周期を使い、実効屈折率を約3.2と仮定すると、\n\n$${\\lambda_{\\mathrm{B}}\\approx 2\\times 3.2\\times 240\\approx 1536\\ \\mathrm{nm}}$$\n\nとなり、1550nm帯に近い。ただし実際の波長は格子次数、材料組成、温度、導波路構造によって変わる。\n\nなぜInPなのか\n\nInPは直接遷移型半導体で、InGaAsPやAlGaInAsなどと組み合わせることで、光通信に使われる1.3～1.55µm帯の発光層を形成できる。InP基板上には、格子整合するInGaAsやInGaAsPなどをエピタキシャル成長できる。(DISCO Technology)\n\nつまり、\n\nInP：基板、クラッド、電流経路\n\nInGaAsP・AlGaInAs：量子井戸、導波路、回折格子\n\nInGaAs：低抵抗コンタクト\n\nという材料分担が可能になる。\n\n### 図解｜CWレーザーの基本\n\n![CWレーザーの基本 01](/media/5125fd387881acf8590544eedd5ebf567cb77ec60fe5376ec8c0bad8d09e34fb-content.webp)\n\n## 2．CW DFB型InPレーザーの断面を読む\n\np側電極\n────────────────\np+ InGaAsコンタクト\np-InPクラッド\nInGaAsP回折格子\nUpper SCH\nMQW活性層\nLower SCH\nn-InPバッファ\nn-InP基板\n────────────────\nn側電極\n\nレーザー光 → 横方向\n\n2-1．n-InP基板\n\n一番下の厚い層がn型InP基板である。\n\n基板には、\n\n結晶成長の土台\n\n機械的支持\n\nn側の電流経路\n\n放熱経路\n\nという役割がある。\n\n基板の転位、不純物、表面粗さ、反り、結晶方位のずれは、その上に作る量子井戸やレーザーの寿命と歩留まりへ影響する。InP基板は単なる支持板ではなく、レーザー性能の出発点である。\n\n2-2．n-InPバッファ層\n\n基板上へ0.5～1µm程度の高品質InP層を成長させる。\n\nこの層は、\n\n基板表面の欠陥や凹凸の影響を弱める\n\n上部の精密な活性層を成長しやすくする\n\nn側電流を運ぶ\n\n下側クラッドの一部として光を閉じ込める\n\n役割を持つ。\n\n2-3．Lower SCH\n\nSCHはSeparate Confinement Heterostructure、分離閉じ込めヘテロ構造である。\n\n量子井戸は数nm程度と極めて薄く、それだけではレーザー光全体を保持できない。そのため量子井戸の上下に、より厚いInGaAsP系の光閉じ込め層を設ける。\n\nLower SCHは、電子を量子井戸へ導くと同時に、光モードを量子井戸周辺へ広く保持する。\n\n2-4．MQW活性層\n\nMQWはMultiple Quantum Well、多重量子井戸である。\n\n図では5～8層程度の歪み量子井戸が描かれている。電子と正孔は薄い井戸層へ閉じ込められ、そこで再結合して光を発生する。\n\n複数量子井戸を使うことで、\n\n光利得を高める\n\nしきい値電流を抑える\n\n発光効率を上げる\n\n発振波長を調整する\n\n高温特性を改善する\n\nことができる。\n\n「strained wells」は、格子定数をわずかに変えて結晶へ歪みを加えた量子井戸である。歪みによってバンド構造や偏光特性を調整できるが、歪みや層厚が限界を超えると転位が生じる。したがって、組成と厚さをナノメートル単位で制御しなければならない。\n\n2-5．Upper SCH\n\n上側のSCHも、光とキャリアを量子井戸付近へ導く。\n\n上下のSCHは必ずしも対称ではない。回折格子が上側に置かれる場合、光モードの一部が格子へ適切に届くよう、層厚と組成が調整される。\n\n2-6．InGaAsP回折格子\n\n図では約240nm周期の微細な凹凸として描かれている。\n\nこれはレーザーの進行方向に沿って並ぶ格子であり、特定の波長を選択する。格子と光モードの重なりが弱すぎれば波長選択性が不足し、強すぎれば散乱損失や光損失が増える。\n\nしたがって、\n\n量子井戸では十分な利得を得ながら、格子には必要な量だけ光を触れさせる\n\nという設計が必要になる。\n\nOxford InstrumentsもInPレーザー製造でDFB格子エッチングを重要工程として挙げ、格子形状とプラズマ加工条件がレーザー性能を左右すると説明している。(Oxford Instruments)\n\n2-7．p-InPクラッド層\n\n上側のp-InPクラッドは、正孔を量子井戸へ送り込むと同時に、中央のInGaAsP系層より低い屈折率を利用して光を閉じ込める。\n\n図にあるZnは、InPをp型化するためのドーパントである。\n\n厚さは1.5～2µm程度と、量子井戸や格子層よりはるかに厚い。\n\n2-8．p+ InGaAsコンタクト\n\n最上部の高濃度p型InGaAs層は、金属電極と半導体の接触抵抗を下げるために使われる。\n\nここは発光する場所ではなく、電流をレーザー内部へ効率よく流す入口である。\n\n### 図解｜InPレーザー断面の各層\n\n![InPレーザー断面の各層 01](/media/4e310ecc850fcf18d9d749376ec1db23ad7d8ce7139ad7a08388e5cf5bfd8443-content.webp)\n\n![InPレーザー断面の各層 02](/media/b98566fa2443f712ab27afde389616d9fbb801a897118787f0910055ccac4f61-content.webp)\n\n![InPレーザー断面の各層 03](/media/5646821c1c4925f472014c5ec636a964a742e0f7de4b70948ba312a62f124089-content.webp)\n\n![InPレーザー断面の各層 04](/media/2c239e569a7b0ec75d88ab7da915be68cfe4a74b6d6ac562cf29881406c72b0d-content.webp)\n\n![InPレーザー断面の各層 05](/media/4e85e75f86a092757347eed9386d4bbcee4578eae902d245479be652184cd114-content.webp)\n\n![InPレーザー断面の各層 06](/media/436c5f071ce1a58bb938bb83d41e8a751d778d861e2888e0a903d1b81a52368a-content.webp)\n\n![InPレーザー断面の各層 07](/media/4570db3beb3d1b4149a9cbea23b75cdf02ea309ad636bad3b8d064cd273ce20e-content.webp)\n\n![InPレーザー断面の各層 08](/media/f69e99bdea6875cf735297c7473e1256ffa44821578dfcac45f68365691b0dee-content.webp)\n\n## 3．レーザー内部では四種類の「閉じ込め」が同時に働く\n\n量子井戸レーザーというと、電子を薄い層へ閉じ込める構造だけを想像しやすい。しかし実際には、異なる方向と対象に対して複数の閉じ込めが使われる。\n\n閉じ込めるもの構造目的電子・正孔MQW再結合確率と光利得を高める光の上下方向SCH・InPクラッド光が上下へ逃げるのを防ぐ電流と光の横方向リッジ、埋込みヘテロ構造電流集中、単一横モード化発振波長・縦モードDFB回折格子単一波長を選択する\n\n埋込みヘテロ構造、BHでは、MQWを含む活性層を細いメサ状に加工し、その左右をInPで再成長して埋める。これにより、キャリアが横へ逃げるのを抑え、電流と光を狭い領域へ集中させる。\n\nNTTの膜型BH-DFBレーザーでも、InGaAsP量子井戸を形成した後、導波路をエッチングし、InPを再成長して活性領域を埋める工程が使われている。(NTT Technical Review)\n\nCWレーザーが通信のための光を作り、シリコンフォトニクスの光変調器が情報を載せ、光回路が運び、受光器が電気信号へ戻す\n\n### 図解｜キャリアと光の閉じ込め\n\n![キャリアと光の閉じ込め 01](/media/f7e962beb874f1f99a6cbfe0d5056565ecf1f6782709f805589dfaac9cac7d6d-content.webp)\n\n![キャリアと光の閉じ込め 02](/media/9fb693a3d03806356fe74b7e9c9c5356ae2699b9ad7f0652781098d0cf042291-content.webp)\n\n![キャリアと光の閉じ込め 03](/media/4517b0c5047ebebc1b1daf63ee31cf35126b792fd75511aefe388dcd9e08a872-content.webp)\n\n## 1．DFB格子とは何か\n\nDFBは、\n\nDistributed Feedback＝分布帰還\n\nを意味します。\n\nレーザー内部の導波路に沿って、屈折率が周期的に変化する微細な格子を形成します。\n\nレーザーの進行方向 →\n\n／＼／＼／＼／＼／＼／＼  DFB格子\n━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━  光導波路\n──────────────  MQW活性層\n\n実際の格子は大きな歯ではなく、約200nm前後の周期を持つ極めて微細な凹凸や屈折率変化です。\n\nDFB格子の役割\n\n半導体レーザー内部では、何もしなければ複数の波長が発振候補になります。\n\nDFB格子は、その中からブラッグ条件を満たす波長を選びます。\n\n$${\\lambda_{\\mathrm{B}}\\approx 2n_{\\mathrm{eff}}\\Lambda}$$\n\nここで、\n\n$${\\lambda_{\\mathrm{B}}=\\text{選択される波長}}$$\n\n$${n_{\\mathrm{eff}}=\\text{導波路の実効屈折率}}$$\n\n$${\\Lambda=\\text{格子周期}}$$\n\nです。\n\n光が格子の一つ一つでわずかに反射され、その反射が同位相で重なる波長だけが強く帰還されます。\n\nしたがって、DFB格子は簡単に言えば、\n\nレーザー内部に埋め込まれた波長選択フィルター兼反射鏡\n\nです。\n\n通常の端面反射との違い\n\n一般的なFabry–Pérotレーザーでは、チップ両端の端面を鏡として光を往復させます。\n\n鏡 ｜ 光が往復 ｜ 鏡\n\nDFBレーザーでは、レーザー全長にわたる格子が少しずつ光を反射します。\n\n小さな反射 × 小さな反射 × 小さな反射 × …\n\nこのため、\n\n単一波長にしやすい\n\n温度変化でモードが飛びにくい\n\nWDMに使いやすい\n\n外部変調用の安定光源に向く\n\nという利点があります。\n\n### 図解｜DFB格子の基本\n\n![DFB格子の基本 01](/media/ade0e3a821bacacc82ebb66285879afa0f84a75036805c8ca0929a991aea1356-content.webp)\n\n![DFB格子の基本 02](/media/e56454e178121dc246f6ea925d7f5c0a541676ef1df39930996399f6877e9abf-content.webp)\n\n![DFB格子の基本 03](/media/ed51421861c5e28ec482a6e443936c7b28a2277b57f2b356d211b99b2e307e71-content.webp)\n\n## 2．DFB格子と光モードの関係\n\n光モードは量子井戸だけに収まっているわけではありません。\n\nMQWを中心としてSCH層まで広がり、さらに上側の裾、エバネッセント成分がDFB格子に届きます。\n\nDFB格子     ∧∧∧∧∧∧∧\n                 ↑\n          光モードの裾\n          ／￣￣￣￣＼\nSCH      ／            ＼\nMQW  ──── 光強度最大 ────\nSCH      ＼            ／\n          ＼＿＿＿＿／\n\nこの重なり具合がDFBの結合係数(\\kappa)に影響します。\n\n重なりが弱すぎる\n\n格子による帰還が弱くなり、\n\n波長選択性が不足する\n\n複数モードが競合する\n\n発振が不安定になる\n\n可能性があります。\n\n重なりが強すぎる\n\n格子散乱が増える\n\n内部損失が増える\n\n光出力が低下する\n\nレーザー長方向の出力分布が偏る\n\n可能性があります。\n\nしたがって、SCHの厚さや格子の深さを調整し、\n\n量子井戸では十分に増幅しながら、DFB格子には必要量だけ光を触れさせる\n\n必要があります。\n\n### 図解｜DFB格子とモード選択\n\n![DFB格子とモード選択 01](/media/f6f41926bce9217a26a5ad806cf053e4aa8f4220d033e7ba9ea519f2c498f28a-content.webp)\n\n![DFB格子とモード選択 02](/media/f520dcdae300ecddce0f614eb5263131326406026d19df805ec60d14318b1d44-content.webp)\n\n## 3．BH再成長とは何か\n\nBHは、\n\nBuried Heterostructure＝埋込みヘテロ構造\n\nです。\n\n量子井戸を含む発光領域を細い筋状に加工し、その左右をInPなどで再び結晶成長して埋めます。\n\n製造の流れ\n\n最初に、基板上へMQWやSCHなどを成長します。\n\n上部層\nSCH\nMQW\nSCH\nInP基板\n\n次に、レーザーとして使う細い部分だけを残して、左右をエッチングします。\n\n活性メサ\n          ┌──┐\n──────────┘  └──────────\n          MQW\n────────────────────\n          基板\n\nその後、削った左右へInPを再成長します。\n\n再成長InP ｜活性メサ｜ 再成長InP\n████████  │ MQW │  ████████\n████████  │     │  ████████\n────────────────────\n             基板\n\n活性層が周囲のInPに埋め込まれるため、Buried、埋込みと呼ばれます。\n\n### 図解｜BH再成長の工程\n\n![BH再成長の工程 01](/media/09ef9a91ce711a252050da4c81201a6e8f0e4417653bde1c26ca2967bd7ffb12-content.webp)\n\n## 4．BH構造は何を閉じ込めるのか\n\nBH構造には、主に三つの効果があります。\n\n電流を横方向に閉じ込める\n\n電流が活性領域の左右へ漏れるのを防ぎ、中央のMQWへ集中させます。\n\n電流\n       ↓\n████  ↓  ████\n████［MQW］████\n\n光を横方向に閉じ込める\n\n活性領域と周囲のInPの屈折率差によって、光が左右へ逃げにくくなります。\n\nSCHとクラッドが上下方向の光閉じ込め、BHが主に横方向の光閉じ込めを担当します。\n\n発熱と表面劣化を抑える\n\n活性層の側面が空気や絶縁膜へ露出せず、結晶性のInPで覆われます。\n\nこれにより、\n\n表面再結合を抑える\n\n漏れ電流を減らす\n\n放熱経路を作る\n\n高温動作を安定させる\n\n長期信頼性を高める\n\nことができます。\n\n高出力CWレーザーでは、電流と熱を狭い発光領域の周囲から効率よく逃がす必要があるため、BH構造は非常に重要です。\n\n### 図解｜BH構造による横方向閉じ込め\n\n![BH構造による横方向閉じ込め 01](/media/28820ee83b8fa1ddbd8e469119fb1ee0243815500556c6c23f4c4602bcc651d5-content.webp)\n\n## 5．なぜBHの「再成長」が難しいのか\n\n一度結晶成長したウェハーを装置から取り出し、\n\nリソグラフィー\n\nエッチング\n\nレジスト除去\n\n洗浄\n\nを行った後、再びMOCVD装置へ戻します。\n\nこの時点で表面には、\n\n自然酸化膜\n\n炭素汚染\n\n水分\n\nエッチング残渣\n\nプラズマ損傷\n\n微粒子\n\nが残りやすくなります。\n\nその上へ高品質な単結晶を再成長しなければなりません。\n\n界面に欠陥ができると、\n\n電子と正孔が光を出さずに消える\n\n漏れ電流が増える\n\n光損失が増える\n\n発熱が増える\n\n寿命が短くなる\n\n可能性があります。\n\nつまりBH再成長は、\n\n一度切った結晶の表面を原子レベルで清浄に戻し、その続きを欠陥なく成長させる工程\n\nです。\n\nここは装置だけでなく、表面処理と成長レシピの暗黙知が大きい領域です。\n\n### 図解｜BH再成長の欠陥要因\n\n![BH再成長の欠陥要因 01](/media/7010deab1934c61ccf60ff01069942208974ef5f43e494e51b669e263a8c5d2d-content.webp)\n\n## 6．シリコンフォトニクスとは何か\n\nシリコンフォトニクスは、シリコン基板上に光回路を作る技術です。\n\n電子回路が、\n\n配線\n\nトランジスタ\n\nスイッチ\n\nメモリ\n\nで電気信号を処理するのに対し、光回路は、\n\n光導波路\n\n光変調器\n\n分岐器\n\n合波器\n\nフィルター\n\n光スイッチ\n\n受光器\n\nで光信号を処理します。\n\n電子回路              光回路\n\n金属配線              光導波路\nトランジスタ          光変調器\n電気スイッチ          光スイッチ\n電気信号の合成        光の合波\n電気信号の分離        光の分波\n\nシリコンフォトニクスの利点は、半導体製造技術を利用して、光導波路や変調器を高密度に作れることです。\n\nただしシリコンは効率よくレーザー発光する材料ではありません。そのため、外部のInPレーザーから光を入れるか、InP系材料をシリコン上へ接合して光源を作ります。\n\n### 図解｜シリコンフォトニクスの役割\n\n![シリコンフォトニクスの役割 01](/media/ceb309148709f25021faec676fcff7aa691adba854b656c6e9d83f338b430794-content.webp)\n\n## 7．光回路の基本構成\n\n典型的な送信側は次のようになります。\n\n電気データ\n   ↓\nドライバー回路\n   ↓\n光変調器 ← CWレーザーから連続光\n   ↓\n波長合波器\n   ↓\n光導波路・光ファイバー\n\n受信側は次のようになります。\n\n光ファイバー\n   ↓\n波長分波器\n   ↓\nフォトダイオード\n   ↓\nTIA・受信回路\n   ↓\n電気データ\n\nつまり、送信では、\n\n電気信号 → 光信号\n\nへ変換します。\n\n受信では、\n\n光信号 → 電気信号\n\nへ戻します。\n\n### 図解｜送受信光回路の構成\n\n![送受信光回路の構成 01](/media/933dcee20608f8d77bff92a26e3e4d57ed2ca201e3a9741c0ed7882a00c22606-content.webp)\n\n## 8．なぜレーザー光が必要なのか\n\n光回路は光を導いたり変調したりできますが、何もないところから強い光を作ることはできません。\n\nレーザーは光回路に対して、通信に使う光の「材料」を供給します。\n\nレーザー光が適している理由\n\n波長が揃っている\n\nLEDは幅広い波長の光を出します。\n\nレーザーは狭い波長範囲に集中した光を出します。\n\nWDMでは波長ごとに通信路を分けるため、波長が安定したレーザーが必要です。\n\n位相が揃っている\n\nレーザー光はコヒーレントで、光波の位相関係が揃っています。\n\nこれは、\n\n高速変調\n\n干渉型変調器\n\nコヒーレント通信\n\n狭い導波路での伝送\n\nに重要です。\n\n指向性が高い\n\nレーザー光は一方向へ集中しやすく、微細な光導波路や光ファイバーへ結合できます。\n\n光密度が高い\n\n小さな断面へ十分な光パワーを入れられます。\n\n変調器や分岐器を通るたびに光損失が発生するため、入口には十分なパワーが必要です。\n\n### 図解｜通信光源に求められる性質\n\n![通信光源に求められる性質 01](/media/cddf6246111c71047135072a4e10a1d30c3f7ce35d0523cc91d9e31330dfba14-content.webp)\n\n## 9．CWレーザーは連続光を出すだけなのか\n\nCPOやシリコンフォトニクスの外部光源として使う場合、基本的にはその理解で合っています。\n\nCWレーザーの主な役割は、\n\n安定した波長、出力、偏光を持つ連続光を供給すること\n\nです。\n\nレーザー光は、まだ情報を持っていません。\n\nたとえるなら、\n\nCWレーザー：真っ白な連続した紙\n\n光変調器：紙に0と1を書く装置\n\n光導波路：紙を運ぶ道\n\n受光器：書かれた内容を電気信号へ読み戻す装置\n\nです。\n\n別のたとえでは、\n\nCWレーザー：放送局の搬送波\n\n変調器：音声や映像を搬送波へ載せる装置\n\nとなります。\n\n### 図解｜CW光源と情報変調\n\n![CW光源と情報変調 01](/media/78308b28d36d99c429d1da8349fcd4d4f527b0b8b592a84c5ec74545df413f95-content.webp)\n\n## 10．実際の0と1は誰が作るのか\n\n主に光変調器です。\n\nCW光が変調器へ入ると、電気信号に応じて光の状態を変えます。\n\n最も基本的なのは光の強さを変える方式です。\n\nCW光：──────────────\n\n変調後：\n1   0   1   1   0\n━━  ─  ━━  ━━  ─\n\n実際には、\n\n光強度\n\n位相\n\n周波数\n\n偏光\n\nなどを変えられます。\n\nデータセンターの短距離通信では、光強度を複数段階に変えるPAM4などがよく使われます。\n\n### 図解｜変調器が作るデジタル信号\n\n![変調器が作るデジタル信号 01](/media/d9e91aca5c72f2b95e9eb998ea2370fdd605a1b78a5208b5136cf9e7631bbf87-content.webp)\n\n## 11．光変調器はどのように光を変えるのか\n\nシリコンフォトニクスでは、主に次のような変調器が使われます。\n\nMach–Zehnder変調器\n\n光を二つの経路へ分け、一方または両方の位相を電気信号で変え、最後に再合成します。\n\n┌── 位相を変える ──┐\nCW光 ─ 分岐                  合流 ─ 変調光\n          └── 基準経路 ─────┘\n\n二つの光が同位相なら強く出力され、逆位相なら打ち消し合います。\n\nリング変調器\n\nリング状の共振器へ特定波長の光を結合させます。\n\n電圧によって共振条件を変え、光を通したり減衰させたりします。\n\nリング変調器は小型ですが、温度による波長ずれに敏感です。\n\n### 図解｜光変調方式\n\n![光変調方式 01](/media/aba64a8ee98e36952d796ae5bacec8b2e2964f7b7d8c5706c2254216ea7ce043-content.webp)\n\n## 12．光回路が通信をするという理解でよいか\n\nより正確には、\n\n電子回路、レーザー、光変調器、光回路、受光器が協力して通信する\n\nとなります。\n\nそれぞれの役割は次のとおりです。\n\n部品役割CWレーザー情報を載せるための連続光を作る電子ドライバー送信する0と1を電圧信号として作る光変調器電気データを光へ載せる光導波路光を目的地まで運ぶ分岐器光を複数経路へ分ける合波器複数波長を一本へまとめる分波器波長ごとに分ける光スイッチ光の経路を切り替えるフォトダイオード光を電流へ変えるTIA・受信回路微小電流を増幅してデータを復元する\n\nレーザー単独では通信は完結しません。\n\n同様に、光回路単独でも光源がなければ通信できません。\n\n### 図解｜光回路全体の通信動作\n\n![光回路全体の通信動作 01](/media/56a41ff485e8070af1448793989656f1bcc7b5b952d1d18af96407da93eb98c5-content.webp)\n\n## 13．シリコンフォトニクス送信機の一連の動作\n\nたとえばGPUからデータを送る場合です。\n\n① GPUやスイッチASICが電気データを出す\n\n1 0 1 1 0 1 …\n\n② SerDesが高速信号へ変換する\n\n並列データを高速な直列信号へまとめます。\n\n③ ドライバーが変調器を駆動する\n\n電圧を増幅し、変調器へ加えます。\n\n④ CWレーザーが連続光を供給する\n\nこの時点の光にはまだデータは載っていません。\n\n──────────── 連続光\n\n⑤ シリコン変調器がデータを載せる\n\n電気信号に合わせて光強度や位相を変化させます。\n\n⑥ 光回路が合波・分岐する\n\n複数のレーザー波長を一本のファイバーへまとめることもあります。\n\n⑦ 光ファイバーで伝送する\n\n⑧ 受信側フォトダイオードが光を電流へ変える\n\n⑨ TIAとSerDesが電気データを復元する\n\n### 図解｜SiPh送信機の信号経路\n\n![SiPh送信機の信号経路 01](/media/95da5530ad810a5514ae76a545d13705c84a4cfa19b22bc60767904037a4a38a-content.webp)\n\n## 14．レーザー自体が通信する方式もある\n\nCWレーザーと外部変調器を分ける方式だけではありません。\n\n直接変調レーザー\n\nレーザーへ流す電流を高速に変え、レーザー出力そのものを変化させます。\n\n電流を強くする → 光が強い\n電流を弱くする → 光が弱い\n\nこの場合は、レーザーが、\n\n光源\n\n変調器\n\nの両方を兼ねます。\n\n利点は構造が簡単で低コストなことです。\n\n一方で、\n\n波長が変動するチャープ\n\n高速化の限界\n\n高出力との両立\n\n温度変化\n\n信号品質\n\nが問題になります。\n\nそのため高速・高密度のシリコンフォトニクスでは、\n\nレーザーは安定したCW光源、変調はシリコン側\n\nという分業が有力です。\n\n### 図解｜直接変調と外部変調\n\n![直接変調と外部変調 01](/media/041f7bf223ef868ba6770ac94b0398d3deccd23c005dea9c8cf1b0ea727d1054-content.webp)\n\n## 15．CPOではなぜ外部CWレーザーが有力なのか\n\nCPOでは、光変調器や光導波路をスイッチASICのすぐ近くへ置きます。\n\nしかしASIC周辺は高温です。レーザーをその近くへ置くと、\n\n光出力低下\n\n波長ずれ\n\n効率低下\n\n寿命短縮\n\nが起きやすくなります。\n\nそこでレーザーを比較的冷たい位置へ置き、ファイバーでCW光を光エンジンへ運びます。\n\n外部レーザー源\n     ↓ CW光\n光ファイバー\n     ↓\nCPO光エンジン\n     ↓\nシリコン変調器でデータを載せる\n\nこの外部レーザー源には、\n\n複数波長のDFBレーザー\n\n温度制御\n\n光出力監視\n\n冗長レーザー\n\nファイバー結合\n\nなどが含まれます。\n\nまとめ\n\nDFB格子\n\nレーザー内部にある周期構造で、特定波長だけを帰還・増幅します。\n\nBH再成長\n\n量子井戸を含む細い活性領域の左右をInPで埋め直す工程です。電流、光、熱を制御し、高出力と信頼性を高めます。\n\nシリコンフォトニクス\n\n光導波路、変調器、分岐器、合波器、受光器などをシリコン基板上に集積する技術です。\n\nCWレーザー\n\nシリコンフォトニクス方式では、基本的に情報の載っていない安定した連続光を供給する光源です。\n\n実際の通信\n\n電気データを光へ載せるのは変調器、光を運び処理するのは光回路、光を電気へ戻すのはフォトダイオードです。\n\n全体の流れは、\n\n電気データ\n→ ドライバー\n→ 光変調器\n＋ CWレーザー光\n→ 光信号\n→ 光導波路・ファイバー\n→ フォトダイオード\n→ 電気データ\n\nとなります。\n\nしたがって、ユーザーの理解を一文で言い換えると、\n\nCWレーザーが通信のための光を作り、シリコンフォトニクスの光変調器が情報を載せ、光回路が運び、受光器が電気信号へ戻す\n\nという構成です。\n\n### 図解｜CPOと外部CW光源\n\n![CPOと外部CW光源 01](/media/8a45458fd7ba74cdbf5a6a9747a104c843db5ec4e84d5a74aef218f4f25278bf-content.webp)\n\n## 4．なぜ日本がこの領域で強いのか\n\nDFBレーザーや量子井戸の基本概念は、世界各国の研究者によって発展した。日本だけの発明ではない。\n\n一方、日本は、\n\nInP系の量子井戸、長波長単一モード発振、位相制御DFB、埋込み再成長を実用的な通信レーザーへ統合する技術\n\nで歴史的に強かった。\n\n旧東京工業大学の末松安晴氏らは、1978年に長波長DBRレーザーを実証し、1980年には高速直接変調下での単一モード動作、1983年には位相シフト型DFBレーザーと波長可変レーザーを実現した。この業績はIEEE Milestoneに認定されている。(ISCT)\n\n特に位相シフトDFBは重要である。\n\n一様な格子ではブラッグ波長の両側にあるモードが競合しやすいが、格子中央へ位相変化を入れることで、特定の一つのモードを優先させられる。現在の高安定単一モードDFBレーザーへつながる基本技術である。\n\nさらにNTT、KDD、NEC、富士通、日立、三菱電機、古河電工、住友電工などが、\n\nInP基板\n\nInGaAsP・AlGaInAs量子井戸\n\nDFB格子\n\nBH再成長\n\n長期信頼性\n\n光ファイバー結合\n\nを産業技術へ落とし込んだ。\n\n日本の強みは、単に量子井戸へ強く光を閉じ込めることではない。\n\n電子、正孔、光、電流、発振波長を、用途ごとに異なる強さで閉じ込める設計と製造\n\nにある。\n\nCPO用の高出力CWレーザーでは、量子井戸への光閉じ込めが強すぎると、利得飽和、発熱、空間的ホールバーニング、端面光密度の上昇につながる。そのため光モードを大きくし、量子井戸との重なりを適度に抑える設計も必要になる。\n\nはい。日本の強みは、単に「高品質な量子井戸を作れる」ことよりも、\n\nMQW活性層のバンド設計と結晶成長、SCHによる光モード設計を、DFB格子・BH再成長・高信頼性実装まで一体で最適化してきたこと\n\nにあります。\n\n### 図解｜日本の研究蓄積の全体像\n\n![日本の研究蓄積の全体像 01](/media/6f9191057331a4c31f31b5bbdc4716c155283024e40ebb4fb1835c6e029cfcd6-content.webp)\n\n![日本の研究蓄積の全体像 02](/media/1611f3170cfa7eb5d98a9097d81001200ab943c07f25561cf10ba86e78c0cbde-content.webp)\n\n## 1．MQW活性層での日本の強み\n\n① 歪み量子井戸を欠陥なく成長させる技術\n\nMQWでは、InGaAsP、AlGaInAs、InGaAsなどの数nm厚の井戸層と障壁層を交互に積層します。\n\n歪み量子井戸を使うと、\n\n低いしきい値電流\n\n高い微分利得\n\n高い量子効率\n\n偏光特性の制御\n\n高速変調\n\n発振波長の調整\n\nが可能になります。\n\nしかし、材料の格子定数がInP基板と異なるほど歪みが増え、井戸を厚くしすぎると転位や界面欠陥が発生します。NTTは、高In組成のInGaAs・InAs量子井戸について、臨界膜厚、成長温度、組成を制御し、5nm厚のInAs MQWを構造劣化なく成長させ、2.3µm超でCW単一モード動作するDFBレーザーまで実証しています。これは通信波長帯を越えた例ですが、日本の量子井戸成長技術の幅を示しています。(NTT Technical Review)\n\n日本勢が強いのは、単に井戸を薄く作ることではなく、\n\n$${\\text{井戸厚}+\\text{材料組成}+\\text{歪み量}+\\text{障壁高さ}+\\text{成長温度}}$$\n\nを組み合わせて、欠陥を増やさずに狙った利得を得る設計です。\n\n② InGaAsPとAlGaInAsを使い分けるバンド設計\n\n従来のInP系通信レーザーではInGaAsPが広く使われてきました。一方、高温動作や高速化ではAlGaInAs系MQWが有力です。\n\nAlGaInAs系では、設計によって電子に対する障壁を高くしやすく、高温時に電子が量子井戸からあふれるキャリアオーバーフローを抑えられます。\n\nNTTはInGaAlAs MQWを使ったDFBレーザー・EMLについて、10～40Gbit/s級の高速動作と広い温度範囲での無冷却動作を開発してきました。高温時の電子・正孔のMQWからの流出を問題として捉え、材料と障壁構造から対策している点が重要です。(NTT Technical Review)\n\n住友電工も、1.3µm帯AlGaInAs/InP DFBレーザーを高速直接変調用に開発してきました。(Sumitomo Electric)\n\nつまり日本には、\n\nInGaAsPの成熟した量産技術\n\nAlGaInAsの高温・高速特性\n\n歪み量子井戸の利得向上\n\n障壁によるキャリア漏れ抑制\n\nを用途別に使い分ける蓄積があります。\n\n③ 低しきい値と高速変調を両立する微分利得設計\n\n直接変調レーザーの速度は、量子井戸の微分利得、光子密度、キャリア寿命、光閉じ込め係数などに左右されます。\n\n日本では、量子井戸の、\n\n井戸数\n\n井戸厚\n\n圧縮歪み\n\n障壁組成\n\n利得ピーク\n\nキャリア分布\n\nを調整し、少ない電流変化で大きく光出力を変えられる構造が研究されてきました。\n\nNTTのInP系膜型レーザーでは、MQWを含む非常に薄いIII-V膜をSiO₂/Si上へ集積し、活性層への強い光閉じ込めを利用して、0.9mAの低しきい値や25～40Gbit/sの直接変調を実証しました。(NTT Technical Review)\n\nさらにNTTは、膜型構造と光フィードバックを組み合わせ、100GHzを超える変調帯域や256Gbit/s PAM4まで示しています。これは通常のCPO用CWレーザーとは異なる用途ですが、MQW利得と光閉じ込めの共同設計能力を示しています。(NTT Technical Review)\n\n④ 高出力向けには、量子井戸への集中を適度に弱める\n\n高速・低しきい値レーザーでは、光とMQWの重なりを強くすることが有効です。\n\nしかし高出力CWレーザーでは、量子井戸内の光密度を高くしすぎると、\n\n利得飽和\n\n空間的ホールバーニング\n\n活性層の温度上昇\n\n非線形損失\n\n端面損傷\n\nが起こりやすくなります。\n\n古河電工は高出力CW-DFBレーザーについて、MQW構造の光閉じ込めを適切に設計し、S・C・L帯にわたり40mW出力を200mA未満の駆動電流で得たと報告しています。(Furukawa Electric)\n\nここでの日本の強みは、\n\n量子井戸へ光を最大限押し込むことではなく、低しきい値・効率・高出力・寿命に応じて重なりを調整すること\n\nです。\n\n### 図解｜量子井戸とMQW活性層\n\n![量子井戸とMQW活性層 01](/media/678f3a9cb01e0efb68f1e5be5c1da5829fda47af80f739af1c5588d924c19046-content.webp)\n\n![量子井戸とMQW活性層 02](/media/2e2808aede5debcb7925965dec145dfe06b2f627b07f495600ae10d6e84a5d00-content.webp)\n\n![量子井戸とMQW活性層 03](/media/fd166c636f34a8f34cf677a057ee68e43e26dbafd526059fea8246f23314d54e-content.webp)\n\n![量子井戸とMQW活性層 04](/media/efc246009c36391e6d375ea7012a538e136309b106785166e87c5f94013d8d41-content.webp)\n\n![量子井戸とMQW活性層 05](/media/4ddca77387cc894b0d1e338b135b6798599a2981e2a36c9773d6231071075496-content.webp)\n\n## 2．SCH層での日本の強み\n\n① 光モードの大きさと位置を設計する能力\n\nSCH層は、MQWの上下に置かれ、光モードの形を決めます。\n\nSCH設計によって調整できるのは、\n\n光閉じ込め係数(\\Gamma)\n\n光モードの垂直方向の広がり\n\nMQWとの重なり\n\nDFB格子との重なり\n\n端面でのスポットサイズ\n\nファイバー結合効率\n\n内部光密度\n\nです。\n\nつまりSCHは、単なる「量子井戸の上下にある厚い層」ではなく、レーザーの性能を用途へ合わせる光学設計層です。\n\n高い光閉じ込め\n→ 低しきい値・高速変調・小型化\n\n適度に弱い光閉じ込め\n→ 高出力・低光密度・長寿命\n\n大きな光モード\n→ ファイバー結合・端面耐性を改善\n\n日本勢は、この使い分けを長く行ってきました。\n\n② MQWとDFB格子の重なりを別々に調整できる\n\nDFBレーザーでは、光モードの中心はMQW付近に必要ですが、光モードの裾はDFB格子まで届かなければなりません。\n\nSCHが薄すぎたり、格子が近すぎたりすると、\n\n格子結合が強すぎる\n\n散乱損失が増える\n\n光強度が長手方向に偏る\n\n高出力化が難しくなる\n\n可能性があります。\n\n反対にSCHが厚すぎると、光モードが格子へ十分届かず、\n\nDFB帰還が弱い\n\nSMSRが低下する\n\nモード安定性が悪化する\n\n可能性があります。\n\nしたがって日本のDFBレーザー研究では、\n\n$${\\text{MQWとの重なり}\\quad\\text{と}\\quad\\text{DFB格子との重なり}}$$\n\nを同時に最適化してきました。\n\n位相シフトDFBを含め、旧東京工業大学、NTT、通信機器メーカーが長波長単一モードレーザーを継続的に研究したことが、この設計層の厚みにつながっています。\n\n③ 用途に応じて光閉じ込めを反対方向に振れる\n\nSCH設計の難しさは、用途によって正解が反対になることです。\n\n高速直接変調レーザー\n\n活性層への光閉じ込めを高める\n\n短共振器化する\n\n光子密度を高める\n\n低電流で高速応答させる\n\nNTTの膜型レーザーは、SiO₂とIII-V薄膜の大きな屈折率差を使い、活性層への非常に強い光閉じ込めを実現しています。これにより低しきい値と高速直接変調を可能にしました。(NTT Technical Review)\n\n高出力CWレーザー\n\n光モードをSCHへ広げる\n\nMQWとの重なりを適度に下げる\n\n活性層内の光密度を下げる\n\n端面スポットを大きくする\n\n発熱と利得飽和を緩和する\n\n古河電工の高出力CW-DFBや、住友電工のCPO向け高出力レーザーは、こちらの方向に近い設計思想です。住友電工はCPO向けに、SOAを集積した1.3µm帯InPレーザーで45℃時400mW超、電力変換効率25％を報告しています。(Sumitomo Electric)\n\n同じMQW・SCH技術を、\n\n小型・高速側\n\n高出力・高信頼性側\n\nの両方へ振れることが強みです。\n\n④ シリコン導波路との結合まで含めたSCH設計\n\n次世代では、SCHや光コアはレーザー単体の内部だけを考えればよいわけではありません。\n\nシリコンフォトニクスへ光を渡すため、\n\nIII-V側の実効屈折率\n\nSi導波路側の実効屈折率\n\nテーパー長\n\nモードサイズ\n\n結合損失\n\n偏光\n\n製造位置ずれ\n\nまで同時に設計します。\n\nNTTは、InP系MQW膜をSiまたは他の導波路へ接合・転写し、Si導波路幅によってレーザーコアの光閉じ込め係数を制御する技術を開発しています。MQW層の接合、選択エッチング、InP再成長、格子形成、スポットサイズコンバーターまでを一連の工程として扱っています。(NTT Technical Review)\n\nこれは、従来の「InPレーザー内部のSCH設計」から、\n\nIII-Vレーザーとシリコン光回路をまたぐモード設計\n\nへ発展したものです。\n\n### 図解｜SCHとダブルヘテロ構造\n\n![SCHとダブルヘテロ構造 01](/media/25e58fce7c1506b0064093a9eb92bd342a54e20121b670678b421ee7ec7d2a44-content.webp)\n\n![SCHとダブルヘテロ構造 02](/media/b3605fc894f4f83ff8e8bcb9338f6e3e91de37dfbb474ed97acb42f9812409d9-content.webp)\n\n## 3．MQWとSCHを別々に作らない点が重要\n\n量子井戸の設計だけが良くても、SCHが合っていなければ性能は出ません。\n\nたとえばMQWの利得が高くても、\n\n光モードがMQWと十分重ならない\n\n格子との結合が不適切\n\n光スポットが小さすぎて端面が壊れる\n\nキャリアが高温で漏れる\n\n横方向へ電流が広がる\n\nと、良いレーザーにはなりません。\n\n実際の設計は、概念的に次の多変数最適化です。\n\n$${\\text{レーザー性能}=f!\\left(\\substack{\\text{MQW組成・厚さ・井戸数・歪み}\\\\text{SCH厚さ・屈折率}\\\\text{光閉じ込め係数}\\\\text{DFB結合係数}\\\\text{BH電流閉じ込め}\\\\text{共振器長}\\\\text{端面反射率}\\\\text{熱抵抗}}\\right)}$$\n\n日本の強みは、この組合せを通信システムの要求まで遡って設計してきた点です。\n\n## 4．なぜ日本にこの強みが蓄積したのか\n\n通信事業者の研究所が材料まで研究した\n\nNTTなどは、通信システムだけでなく、\n\nMOVPE結晶成長\n\nMQWバンド設計\n\nSCH・導波路設計\n\nDFB格子\n\nBH再成長\n\n変調器\n\n光集積\n\n伝送実験\n\nまで社内で研究してきました。\n\nそのため「良い材料を作る」だけではなく、\n\n実際に何km伝送できるか、何Gbit/s出るか、どの温度で動くか\n\nまでフィードバックできました。\n\n材料・デバイス・光ファイバー・実装企業が同国内に揃った\n\n日本には、\n\nInP基板：住友電工など\n\nMQW・レーザー：NTT、古河電工、住友電工、三菱電機など\n\n光ファイバー：古河電工、住友電工\n\n光コネクター・実装\n\n通信システム\n\n大学の光電子研究\n\nが近接して存在しました。\n\n住友電工は1970年代から光ファイバー、化合物半導体、光通信モジュールを並行開発し、光デバイスからモジュールまでの事業を築いてきました。(Sumitomo Electric)\n\nこの垂直統合環境が、MQWやSCHを単独の材料研究で終わらせず、製品へ落とし込む力になったと考えられます。\n\n## 5．現在の日本の位置づけ\n\nここは区別が必要です。\n\n日本には、\n\nMQW材料設計\n\n歪み制御\n\nMOVPE成長\n\nSCH・光モード設計\n\nDFB・位相制御\n\nBH再成長\n\n高温・長寿命評価\n\n光ファイバー実装\n\nに厚い技術蓄積があります。\n\nただし現在の量産規模や市場支配力まで日本が一位という意味ではありません。Coherent、LumentumなどもInP MQW、SCH、高出力CWレーザーで非常に強く、台湾や欧州にもエピ・ファウンドリー能力があります。\n\n日本の特徴は、純粋な生産量より、\n\n材料、光モード、格子、再成長、熱、実装を一つの通信デバイスとしてまとめる総合設計力\n\nにあります。\n\nまとめ\n\nMQW活性層における日本の強みは、\n\n高品質な歪み量子井戸の結晶成長\n\nInGaAsP／AlGaInAsの使い分け\n\n高温時のキャリア漏れ抑制\n\n高い微分利得と低しきい値\n\n高速・高出力向けの利得設計\n\n波長帯を広げる量子井戸技術\n\nです。\n\nSCH層における強みは、\n\n光モードの大きさと位置の精密制御\n\nMQWとDFB格子への重なりの同時最適化\n\n高速用の強い閉じ込めと、高出力用の広いモードの使い分け\n\n端面・ファイバー・Si導波路まで含めたモード変換\n\nMQW、BH、DFB、熱設計との統合\n\nです。\n\n一言で表すなら、\n\n日本の強みは「量子井戸を作る技術」だけでなく、量子井戸が生む利得を、SCHで望ましい光モードへ変え、DFBとBHを通じて実用的な単一波長レーザーへ仕上げる技術にある\n\nということです。\n\n日本のMQW・SCH・DFBレーザー研究は、どのように企業へつながったのか\n\n量子構造、単一モード、光閉じ込め、高出力化を結んだ研究者と産業の系譜\n\n量子井戸を活性層に使うInP系DFBレーザーは、一つの発明だけで完成した技術ではない。電子と正孔を閉じ込めるMQW、多重量子井戸、光モードの広がりを設計するSCH、光と電流を横方向へ閉じ込めるBH構造、発振波長を選択するDFB格子、さらに位相シフト、端面設計、熱対策、ファイバー実装を組み合わせて初めて、通信に使えるレーザーになる。\n\n日本がこの分野で強みを築いた理由は、大学で生まれた量子構造や共振器の理論を、通信事業者の研究所、電機メーカー、光部品メーカー、材料企業が長期間にわたって引き継ぎ、実際の通信システムと量産工程へ落とし込んできたことにある。研究者個人の業績だけでなく、大学、企業研究所、製造現場が連続した技術圏を形成したことが重要である。\n\n## 1．末松安晴――光通信に必要な「一つの波長」を作る\n\n日本の長波長単一モードレーザー研究を語るうえで、旧東京工業大学の末松安晴氏は中心的な存在である。\n\n末松氏らの研究グループは、1978年に長波長DBRレーザー、1980年に高速直接変調中でも単一モードを維持するレーザー、1983年には位相シフトDFBレーザーと波長可変半導体レーザーを実現した。\n\nこの研究の重要性は、レーザーを単に発光させたことではない。光ファイバー通信で使えるように、発振する波長を一つに絞り、温度や変調条件が変わっても安定させたことにある。\n\n通常の一様なDFB格子では、ブラッグ波長の両側に二つの発振候補が現れ、モード競合が起きやすい。格子中央に光学的な位相変化を設けると、ストップバンド中央に一つの欠陥モードを作ることができる。これがλ/4位相シフトDFBの基本である。\n\nこの成果は量子井戸そのものの研究ではなく、DFB格子と共振器による縦モード制御の研究である。しかし、MQWが広い波長範囲で光利得を作っても、共振器が一つの波長を選択できなければ、WDMや長距離通信に適した光源にはならない。\n\n役割を分けると、次のようになる。\n\nMQW活性層が光を発生し、増幅する\n\nSCHが光モードの形と広がりを決める\n\nDFB格子が発振可能な波長を絞る\n\n位相シフトが競合する縦モードから一つを選ぶ\n\n末松氏の研究は、後のNTT、KDD、NEC、富士通、日立、三菱電機、古河電工、住友電工などによる長波長DFBレーザー開発の基礎となった。ただし、これは特定企業一社への単純な技術移転ではない。大学で確立された基本概念が論文、人材、共同研究、学会活動を通じて産業全体へ広がった例と見るべきである。\n\n### 図解｜末松安晴と単一波長DFB\n\n![末松安晴と単一波長DFB 01](/media/0d845ee6af65ae3ad5badbc1d66bd4b98ff8b6ec5af6f985174b2123841ae4e6-content.webp)\n\n## 2．荒川泰彦・榊裕之――量子井戸から量子ドットへ続く活性層研究\n\nDFB格子が発振波長を選ぶ技術だとすれば、量子井戸研究はレーザーがどのように光利得を作るかを設計する技術である。\n\n荒川泰彦氏と榊裕之氏は1982年、電子と正孔を活性層内で低次元化した場合に、レーザーのしきい値や温度特性がどのように変化するかを理論的に示した。この研究は量子ドットレーザーの出発点として知られるが、量子井戸レーザーの理解にも大きな影響を与えた。\n\n通常のバルク活性層では、電子は三次元的に運動できる。量子井戸では一方向の運動が制限され、量子細線では二方向、量子ドットでは三方向すべてが制限される。閉じ込める次元が増えるほど電子状態密度の形が変わり、しきい値電流、微分利得、温度依存性を改善できる可能性が生まれる。\n\nこの理論は、MQW設計で重要となる、\n\n井戸厚\n\n井戸数\n\n障壁高さ\n\n歪み\n\nキャリア分布\n\n温度によるキャリア漏れ\n\nを物理的に理解する基盤となった。\n\n荒川氏らの研究は、その後、富士通研究所との共同研究へ進んだ。大学側が低次元量子構造の理論とデバイス原理を担い、富士通研究所が結晶成長、素子設計、信頼性、量産技術を発展させた。その成果を事業化する企業としてQDレーザが設立され、広い温度範囲で動作する通信用量子ドットレーザーの量産へつながった。\n\nこれは日本の光半導体研究における、最も分かりやすい産学連携の一つである。\n\n東京大学の量子構造理論\n        ↓\n富士通研究所との実用化研究\n        ↓\n量子ドットレーザーの試作・信頼性評価\n        ↓\nQDレーザ設立\n        ↓\n通信用レーザーとして量産\n\nMQW型DFBレーザーと量子ドットレーザーは同一ではないが、電子と正孔を狭い領域へ閉じ込め、状態密度を制御し、温度特性と利得を改善するという研究思想は共通している。\n\n### 図解｜量子井戸から量子ドットへの系譜\n\n![量子井戸から量子ドットへの系譜 01](/media/d6126da80450c0f0c3509f31e3c03dc0937837dfa8cfaee02824038afccba8c3-content.webp)\n\n## 3．荒井滋久・西山伸彦――SCHと光モードを再設計した膜型レーザー\n\n旧東京工業大学の荒井滋久氏、西山伸彦氏らの研究系統は、InP系量子井戸、DFB・DBR共振器、微細格子、結晶再成長、III-V／Si異種集積を結び付けてきた。\n\n特に重要なのが膜型InPレーザーである。\n\n従来型InPレーザーでは、MQWの上下にSCH層と厚いInPクラッドを配置し、屈折率差によって光を閉じ込める。膜型レーザーでは、MQWを含むIII-V層全体を薄膜化し、その周囲にSiO₂などの低屈折率材料を配置する。\n\nIII-V半導体とSiO₂の屈折率差は大きいため、薄いレーザー膜の内部へ光を強く閉じ込めることができる。これにより、\n\n活性体積の縮小\n\n低しきい値電流\n\n小型共振器\n\n高い変調効率\n\nシリコン導波路との結合\n\nが可能になる。\n\nこの研究は、単にSCH層を厚くする、薄くするという改良ではない。レーザー膜、低屈折率クラッド、シリコン導波路を一つの光学系として設計し、光モードそのものを作り直す研究である。\n\n荒井・西山系の研究と、後述するNTTの膜型InPレーザー研究は技術領域が非常に近い。ただし、個々の技術について大学からNTTへ一方向に移転したと単純化するのは適切ではない。大学と企業研究所がそれぞれ低消費電力レーザー、異種材料集積、微細共振器という共通課題を追い、学会や共同研究を通じて相互に発展させた研究生態系と見る方が正確である。\n\n### 図解｜膜型レーザーとSCH再設計\n\n![膜型レーザーとSCH再設計 01](/media/ebe83c7c325b65cf4bc61490ccf54402d2f0592ca9f82e3751ed35f5b711c2a5-content.webp)\n\n## 4．小山二三夫とNTT――共振器でレーザーの速度限界を超える\n\n小山二三夫氏はVCSEL研究で著名だが、NTTとの共同研究では、InP系膜型レーザーの超高速直接変調にも取り組んだ。\n\n半導体レーザーの直接変調速度は、通常、電子と正孔の応答、光子寿命、緩和振動周波数などによって制限される。量子井戸の微分利得を高めるだけでは、速度向上に限界がある。\n\nそこで使われたのが、膜型レーザー、外部光帰還、フォトン・フォトン共鳴の組合せである。\n\n高熱伝導のSiC基板上へInP系膜型レーザーを形成し、外部共振器から適切な光帰還を与えることで、新たな共振ピークを作り、変調帯域を拡大した。この研究では、100GHzを超える3dB変調帯域と256Gbit/s PAM4伝送が示された。\n\nこの成果の意味は、MQW活性層だけを改良したのではなく、\n\nMQWが作る利得\n\nSCH・薄膜構造による光閉じ込め\n\nSiC基板による放熱\n\n外部共振器\n\n光帰還\n\n高速駆動回路\n\nを一体設計したことにある。\n\n大学側はレーザー物理、共振器、光モード制御を担い、NTT側はInP膜型デバイス、異種材料接合、電極、光伝送評価を統合した。これは、大学と企業研究所の役割分担が明確に現れた事例である。\n\n### 図解｜共振器による高速化\n\n![共振器による高速化 01](/media/05822a339d2f8f7f1c723f75470d63922dbf9fbcf666b39a5c46d8f4f5b25bc0-content.webp)\n\n## 5．松尾慎治・武田浩司ら――NTTの膜型InPレーザーと光電融合\n\nNTTでは、松尾慎治氏、武田浩司氏、柿塚高明氏、藤井拓郎氏、仁志英俊氏らが、InP系膜型レーザーとシリコンフォトニクスの集積を進めてきた。\n\n代表的な膜型DFBレーザーでは、InGaAsP量子井戸を含む非常に薄いIII-V膜をSiO₂／Si基板へ接合し、横方向から電流を注入する。活性領域をエッチングした後、InPを再成長して埋め込むBH構造も使われる。\n\nこの構造では、従来型InPレーザーより光閉じ込めを強くできるため、活性体積としきい値電流を小さくできる。NTTは0.9mAのしきい値電流、25.8Gbit/s直接変調、171fJ/bitという低エネルギー動作を示してきた。\n\nさらに、シリコン導波路とのテーパー結合、MZMやEA変調器との集積、マイクロトランスファープリントなどへ研究を広げている。\n\nここでは、SCHはレーザー内部だけの層ではなくなっている。III-V側の光モードを徐々にシリコン導波路へ移すため、\n\nIII-V膜厚\n\nSCHの屈折率\n\nシリコン導波路幅\n\nテーパー形状\n\n接合層厚\n\n位置ずれ許容度\n\nまで含めて設計する。\n\nNTTの研究は企業との連携ではなく、NTT自身の企業研究である。その目的は、通信ネットワーク、データセンター接続、IOWN、光電融合、低消費電力光I/Oへ直結している。材料研究から伝送実験までを一社内で接続できることが、NTTの大きな強みである。\n\n### 図解｜膜型InPレーザーと光電融合\n\n![膜型InPレーザーと光電融合 01](/media/888954971d616d56d7d0dfa5cd06ee024121a9affb8b8f657d46d7e98cade072-content.webp)\n\n## 6．古河電工――高出力CW-DFBを実際の外部光源へ\n\n古河電工では、笠川明彦氏、高木圭司氏、木瀬智文氏、丸山一臣氏らが、高出力CW-DFBレーザーを研究してきた。\n\n高出力CWレーザーでは、MQWとの光の重なりを強くすればよいわけではない。光閉じ込め係数が高すぎると、MQW内部の光密度が上昇し、利得飽和、発熱、空間的ホールバーニング、端面損傷が起きやすくなる。\n\n古河電工は、\n\nMQW光閉じ込め係数\n\nSCH厚\n\n共振器長\n\nDFB結合係数\n\n端面反射率\n\nを同時に最適化した。\n\n過去の研究では、S～L帯で40mW級の出力、最大175mWの高出力、狭線幅動作などを示している。重要なのは、これらをレーザーダイの研究で終わらせず、レンズ、ファイバー、温度制御、波長監視を含むレーザーモジュールへ展開したことだ。\n\nこの技術系譜は現在、CPOやシリコンフォトニクスへ連続光を供給する外部レーザー源へつながっている。\n\n古河電工はレーザーチップだけでなく、\n\n光ファイバー\n\nコネクター\n\nレンズ結合\n\n外部レーザー源\n\n放熱\n\n光実装\n\nまで扱う。したがって、MQW・SCH設計を完成光源へ結び付けやすい企業構造を持つ。\n\n### 図解｜高出力CW-DFB外部光源\n\n![高出力CW-DFB外部光源 01](/media/2f56daa660d40f7eb56c4a3461095d2d89562409df6cdf20eca0dc82e097fdd9-content.webp)\n\n## 7．住友電工――InP基板からMQW、高出力光源まで\n\n住友電工では、八木英樹氏、大西裕氏、小山健二氏、辻幸洋氏らが、AlGaInAs／InP系高速DFBレーザーを開発してきた。\n\nAlGaInAs MQWは、設計によって電子に対する障壁を高くしやすい。このため高温時に電子が量子井戸から漏れ出すキャリアオーバーフローを抑え、高い微分利得と温度安定性を得やすい。\n\n住友電工はAlGaInAs圧縮歪みMQW、DFB格子、p-InP再成長、リッジ導波路、低容量電極を組み合わせ、20GHz超の電気帯域、26Gbit/s直接変調、85℃での無冷却動作などを実現してきた。\n\nさらに青山康之祐氏、井上大輔氏、藤原直樹氏らの研究では、DFBレーザー部とワイドストライプSOA部を集積し、45℃で400mW超、電力変換効率25％のCPO向け光源を実現している。\n\nこの構造では役割を分離している。\n\nDFB部\n→ 狭線幅・単一波長・波長安定性\n\nテーパー部\n→ 光モードを徐々に拡大\n\nSOA部\n→ 光を高出力まで増幅\n\n住友電工の特徴は、InP基板、エピタキシャル成長、レーザーダイ、光モジュール、光ファイバーを同じ企業グループ内に持つことにある。\n\n基板の結晶欠陥やドーピングから、MQW、SCH、DFB、実装、ファイバー接続までを遡って最適化できる。これは、研究成果を製品へ移すうえで大きな優位性となる。\n\n### 図解｜InP基板から高出力光源まで\n\n![InP基板から高出力光源まで 01](/media/0877505cdbda969b976658dedc6e3f1893601e28084d01e4a102289ecd2ddf87-content.webp)\n\n## 8．日本の研究と企業連携には四つの形がある\n\n日本のInPレーザー研究を整理すると、企業とのつながりは四種類に分けられる。\n\n第一は、大学発の基礎技術が産業全体へ広がる形である。末松安晴氏の長波長単一モードレーザーや位相シフトDFBが代表例である。\n\n第二は、大学と企業研究所の共同研究である。小山二三夫氏とNTTによる超高速膜型レーザーがこれに当たる。\n\n第三は、大学研究からスタートアップへ進む形である。荒川泰彦氏、榊裕之氏、富士通研究所、QDレーザの系譜が代表的である。\n\n第四は、企業研究所内部の垂直統合である。NTT、古河電工、住友電工は、材料・デバイスから実装・伝送までを社内でつないでいる。\n\n日本の強みは研究者個人ではなく、技術をつなぐ構造にある\n\n日本のMQW・SCH・DFBレーザー研究は、量子井戸、格子、光モード、再成長、高出力化を別々に発展させただけではない。\n\n末松安晴氏らが単一波長と位相制御を確立し、荒川泰彦氏と榊裕之氏が量子閉じ込めの理論を示し、荒井滋久氏、西山伸彦氏らが薄膜と光モードを再設計した。小山二三夫氏とNTTは共振器による超高速化を進め、NTTの研究陣はInP膜型レーザーをシリコンフォトニクスへ統合した。古河電工は高出力CW-DFBを外部光源へ仕上げ、住友電工はInP基板から高出力レーザーまでを垂直統合した。\n\nその研究系譜は、\n\n量子井戸で光利得を作り、SCHで光モードを整え、DFBで波長を選び、BHで電流と熱を管理し、最後にファイバーやシリコン光回路へ光を渡す\n\nという一つの技術体系を形成している。\n\nAI時代のCPOやOptical I/Oで再評価されているのは、個別の古い発明だけではない。大学、通信事業者、材料企業、光部品メーカーが数十年間かけて作り上げた、日本の光半導体研究・製造ネットワークそのものである。\n\n### 図解｜日本の研究・企業連携\n\n![日本の研究・企業連携 01](/media/53cfda9d8a532adacd6f4d0e749d931ce364492ec51ceb1779948cd1ef43eb52-content.webp)\n\n![日本の研究・企業連携 02](/media/5b5168ecf2e5735fc6ef4f3042f8b247a6531ef597189f0c7b9673502a3fced9-content.webp)\n\n## 5．製造工程――多層ケーキを作った後に、切って埋めて焼き直す\n\nCW DFB型InPレーザーの代表的な工程は次のようになる。\n\n### 図解｜InPレーザーの製造・実装・検査工程\n\n![InPレーザーの製造・実装・検査工程 01](/media/9d4b4d1c9b403ff4db800f2b84b5b9854c094ab8651235e67ae4d70aba2ec6f2-content.webp)\n\n![InPレーザーの製造・実装・検査工程 02](/media/1b4e918013afd19108bdbccabda178c1b7caab9d63dd427741a1128d91053f32-content.webp)\n\n![InPレーザーの製造・実装・検査工程 03](/media/213b296cd913419924b82d304691de11fbfa4ab217e55080102a52d1a79d2473-content.webp)\n\n![InPレーザーの製造・実装・検査工程 04](/media/5a5129b0a820a78ae1e763a385192537feae05529aad0aee2c3cd0337744d93b-content.webp)\n\n![InPレーザーの製造・実装・検査工程 05](/media/808fe80fec537c0508c8862fb354332ba6900ee9cef6fb91dc7b75075df284ea-content.webp)\n\n![InPレーザーの製造・実装・検査工程 06](/media/0d95eebf528a0e05a028a6424ba3aa472cd9a4ffc31d66a323819d539b4be4c9-content.webp)\n\n![InPレーザーの製造・実装・検査工程 07](/media/9db6abd3261c487e43f1700f2f7f049b3664b180aa9fb6840207c4c938255070-content.webp)\n\n## 1．InP単結晶・基板製造\n\n↓\n\n## 2．バッファ、SCH、MQW、格子層をMOCVD成長\n\n↓\n\n## 3．DFB格子をリソグラフィーで形成\n\n↓\n\n## 4．格子をエッチング\n\n↓\n\n## 5．表面洗浄\n\n↓\n\n## 6．p-InPクラッドを再成長\n\n↓\n\n## 7．リッジまたはBH構造を形成\n\n↓\n\n## 8．絶縁膜・電極形成\n\n↓\n\n## 9．ウェハーをバーへ分割\n\n↓\n\n## 10．端面形成・反射防止膜\n\n↓\n\n## 11．チップ分割\n\n↓\n\n## 12．放熱部材・レンズ・ファイバーへ実装\n\n↓\n\n## 13．光学検査・バーンイン・顧客認証\n\n特に厄介なのは、一度結晶成長を止めて格子や導波路を加工し、その後もう一度結晶を成長させることだ。\n\n再成長前の表面に、\n\n酸化膜\n\n有機物\n\n微粒子\n\nエッチング残渣\n\n結晶損傷\n\nが残ると、非発光再結合、電流リーク、光損失、早期故障の原因になる。\n\n装置を購入するだけでは解決できず、洗浄条件、リアクター履歴、成長開始温度、原料ガス供給、ドーピング切替えなどのレシピが必要になる。ここに長年の暗黙知が蓄積される。\n\n## 6．なぜ資金を投入してもすぐ増産できないのか\n\n6-1．InPウェハーが小さい\n\nシリコンの先端半導体では300mm、12インチウェハーが一般的だが、InPレーザーは長く2～4インチ級を中心に生産されてきた。\n\n4インチと12インチを単純な面積で比べると、\n\n$${\\frac{12^2}{4^2}=9}$$\n\nとなる。\n\n実際の取得チップ数は端部損失や歩留まりの影響を受けるが、ウェハー一枚当たりの生産性には大きな差がある。\n\nCoherentは米国とスウェーデンで6インチInP能力を立ち上げ、同社試算で従来比4倍の生産能力と約60％のダイコスト削減を見込んでいる。別の製品発表では、米国Sherman工場の拡張により生産能力を従来の約5倍へ引き上げる計画を示している。(Coherent Inc)\n\nただし6インチ化は、単に大きな基板を装置へ入れる作業ではない。\n\n温度分布\n\n原料ガスの流れ\n\n膜厚\n\n材料組成\n\nドーピング濃度\n\nウェハー反り\n\n格子寸法\n\n発振波長\n\nをウェハー全体で均一にしなければならない。\n\n6-2．エピタキシャル成長が難しい\n\nMQWは、数nmの井戸と障壁を何層も交互に積み重ねる。\n\nわずかな厚さや組成の違いで、\n\n発振波長\n\nしきい値電流\n\n光出力\n\n温度特性\n\n偏光\n\n寿命\n\nが変わる。\n\nさらにp型・n型ドーパントが隣接層へ拡散すると、電気特性や光学特性が変化する。MOCVD装置の能力に加えて、成長レシピと工程管理が必要になる。\n\n6-3．DFB格子が波長歩留まりを決める\n\n格子周期、深さ、形状、側壁角度が変わると、発振波長と格子結合係数が変わる。\n\nレーザーが発光していても、\n\n波長が規格外\n\nサイドモード抑圧比が不足\n\n線幅が広すぎる\n\n出力が不足\n\n温度変化で波長がずれる\n\n場合は良品として出荷できない。\n\nつまりレーザーチップの歩留まりは、単なる「動作するチップ数」ではなく、指定波長ごとの良品数で決まる。\n\n6-4．高出力CWでは熱と寿命が厳しい\n\nCPO向けレーザーは、研究室で短時間発光すればよいわけではない。数百mW級の光を高温環境で連続出力し、長期間動作する必要がある。\n\n高出力化すると、\n\n接合部温度の上昇\n\n利得飽和\n\n電流集中\n\n非放射再結合\n\n端面損傷\n\n波長ドリフト\n\n効率低下\n\nが起こりやすい。\n\nLumentumは2026年に、1310nm帯で25℃時1W超、50℃時800mW超、線幅100kHz未満のCPO向けSHPレーザーを発表した。これは高出力だけでなく、波長純度、熱設計、低雑音を同時に成立させる競争が進んでいることを示す。(Lumentum Investor Relations)\n\n6-5．後工程が自動化しにくい\n\nレーザーチップの後工程には、\n\nへき開による端面形成\n\n反射防止膜・高反射膜\n\nサブマウント接合\n\nワイヤーボンディング\n\nレンズ位置合わせ\n\nファイバー結合\n\n温度センサー\n\nフォトダイオード\n\n冷却・放熱構造\n\nが必要になる。\n\n光学位置合わせはサブミクロン級の精度を要求されることがあり、CMOSロジックの組立とは異なる設備とノウハウが必要である。\n\n6-6．検査とバーンインに時間がかかる\n\nレーザーでは、\n\n光出力\n\n発振波長\n\nSMSR\n\n線幅\n\nRIN\n\n偏光\n\n温度特性\n\n長期劣化\n\nを測定する。\n\nさらに高温、高電流で一定時間動作させ、初期故障を取り除くバーンインが必要になる。Aehrはレーザーやフォトニクスデバイスのウェハー、ダイ、モジュール単位での試験とバーンインを展開している。(Aehr Test Systems)\n\nウェハー工程を増強しても、検査・バーンイン能力が不足すれば出荷量は増えない。\n\n6-7．顧客認証が最後の関門になる\n\n新しい工場、新しいウェハー径、新しいエピ工程へ変更すると、顧客側で再認証が必要になることがある。\n\n顧客が求めるのは、\n\n出力\n\n波長\n\n線幅\n\n雑音\n\n動作温度\n\n寿命\n\nパッケージ形状\n\nファイバー仕様\n\n故障率\n\nを長期間満たす製品である。\n\n設備完成と売上計上の間には、歩留まり改善、信頼性試験、顧客認証という時間差がある。\n\n### 図解｜エピ成長・後工程・装置の増産制約\n\n![エピ成長・後工程・装置の増産制約 01](/media/b2f988e4db2a457c4d10fe576682bd1e026a5dd51d1fecc0f877ab31c763f88e-content.webp)\n\n![エピ成長・後工程・装置の増産制約 02](/media/5c6c15745047e7a96edc22bfbd7db6db867ba23dd83e448adec9f94032295326-content.webp)\n\n![エピ成長・後工程・装置の増産制約 03](/media/ebbdded2f90da4d67026807312d2fa55721a26166d1d2a0b71cc97c0ed3469a6-content.webp)\n\n![エピ成長・後工程・装置の増産制約 04](/media/dcb723f2398693b19ff501c14874f2f0e471a66a78956ec1afe24a8b5e97b21f-content.webp)\n\n![エピ成長・後工程・装置の増産制約 05](/media/8f2c5c2105e064b52f8c34176a309a34bd9c324fa4933e761b0e3863f838fd6c-content.webp)\n\n![エピ成長・後工程・装置の増産制約 06](/media/1daa80dca329b4170e8565ca4bf5e5cfb6b1504daa47fbc6c6b14a3192c4fbcf-content.webp)\n\n## 7．供給能力は最も弱い工程で決まる\n\nInPレーザーの出荷能力は、概念的には次のように表せる。\n\n$$\\begin{aligned}\\text{実効出荷能力}&=\\min\\bigl(\\text{InP基板供給},\\ \\text{エピ成長能力},\\&\\quad \\text{DFB格子加工能力},\\ \\text{再成長能力},\\&\\quad \\text{レーザーFab能力},\\ \\text{前工程歩留まり},\\&\\quad \\text{実装能力},\\ \\text{光学検査能力},\\&\\quad \\text{バーンイン能力},\\ \\text{顧客認証済み能力}\\bigr)\\end{aligned}$$\n\n基板だけを増やしてもレーザーは増えない。\n\nMOCVD装置だけを増やしても、格子加工や再成長で詰まる可能性がある。\n\nレーザーダイを増やしても、実装、ファイバー結合、検査が不足すれば完成品にならない。\n\nこの「最小値で決まる」構造こそ、資金だけで短期解決しにくい理由である。\n\n### 図解｜InPレーザー供給網の全体像\n\n![InPレーザー供給網の全体像 01](/media/d9babf7ffb6df7feee67a5dcf20489463ed74df06d900b781a090b353966af5b-content.webp)\n\n## 8．領域別の有力銘柄\n\n以下は買い推奨順位ではなく、技術と供給網のどこへ露出しているかを整理したものである。2026年8月2日時点。\n\n8-1．InP基板\n\n住友電気工業〔5802〕\n\n住友電工はInP基板、光デバイス、シリコンフォトニクスとの異種材料集積まで幅広く持つ。基板だけの専業ではないが、材料からデバイスへつながる垂直統合が強い。会社はデータセンター向け光デバイスとInP基板の能力拡張を成長戦略に位置づけている。(Sumitomo Electric)\n\n強み\n\n高品質InP基板\n\n光デバイスとの垂直統合\n\n日本国内の材料・製造基盤\n\n次世代InP光源研究\n\n注意点\n\n事業規模が大きく、InPレーザーだけへの株価感応度は低い\n\nAXT〔NASDAQ：AXTI〕\n\nAXTはInP、GaAs、Ge基板を製造する材料企業で、住友電工よりInP需給への業績感応度が高い。\n\n2026年にはInP能力拡張と6インチInP研究へ資金を振り向け、7月にはLumentumと2031年末までのInP基板供給・能力予約契約を締結した。Lumentumからの予約デポジットは、初回4,350万ドルと2028年に条件を定める予定の追加4,350万ドルで、合計8,700万ドルとなる。(AXT, Inc.)\n\n強み\n\nInP基板への高い事業純度\n\nLumentumとの長期契約\n\n大規模能力拡張\n\n注意点\n\n中国での生産\n\n輸出許可\n\n地政学\n\n大規模増資と設備投資\n\n歩留まり改善\n\n8-2．エピウェハー\n\nLandMark Optoelectronics〔台湾・3081〕\n\nLandMark、聯亞光電はGaAs・InPエピウェハーの専門企業である。\n\n公式のデータセンター向け製品には、\n\nDFBレーザー用エピウェハー\n\n高出力CWレーザー用エピウェハー\n\n再成長InPエピウェハー\n\nリッジ導波路DFB\n\nBH-DFB\n\nが含まれる。提示された断面図のMQW、SCH、格子層に最も直接的な外部エピ企業の一つである。(Lmoc)\n\n強み\n\nInPエピ専業度\n\nDFB、CW、BH向け製品\n\n台湾光通信供給網への近さ\n\n注意点\n\n顧客集中\n\n台湾市場特有の値動き\n\n顧客側内製化\n\nIQE〔LSE AIM：IQE〕\n\nIQEは化合物半導体エピウェハー大手で、創業時からInPエピを製造している。\n\n2026年6月にはTower SemiconductorとAIデータセンター用光接続向けInPエピウェハーの複数年契約を締結し、200Gbps/laneや次世代400Gbps/lane技術を対象にしている。(Iqep)\n\n強み\n\n外部エピ供給の顧客基盤\n\nAI・データセンター向け契約\n\n複数材料への展開\n\n注意点\n\n財務体質\n\n資本調達\n\n顧客側の内製エピとの競争\n\n8-3．MOCVD・成膜・格子加工装置\n\nVeeco Instruments〔NASDAQ：VECO〕\n\nVeecoはInP能力増強の「つるはし銘柄」として非常に直接的である。\n\n2026年5月、複数顧客からInPレーザー製造向けに総額2億5,000万ドル超の装置受注を発表した。対象にはLumina MOCVD、Spectorイオンビーム成膜、ウェット処理装置が含まれる。(Veeco Instruments)\n\n強み\n\nMOCVD\n\n光学膜\n\nウェット処理\n\n複数顧客からの大型受注\n\nレーザーメーカー間の勝敗に依存しにくい\n\n注意点\n\n受注の集中\n\n顧客の設備投資サイクル\n\n装置売上の四半期変動\n\nAIXTRON〔Xetra：AIXA〕\n\nAIXTRONはIII-V族MOCVD装置の有力企業である。\n\n2026年5月にはLumentumからG10-AsPを複数受注し、InPレーザーと受光デバイスの能力拡張を支援すると発表した。膜厚、組成、温度のウェハー面内均一性が重要なInPエピ工程への露出が高い。(AIXTRON)\n\n強み\n\nIII-V MOCVDの長い実績\n\nLumentumを含む主要顧客\n\n高量産向けG10-AsP\n\n注意点\n\nSiC、GaN、microLEDなど他市場の影響も大きい\n\n顧客の設備投資時期に左右される\n\nOxford Instruments〔LSE：OXIG〕\n\nOxford InstrumentsはInPレーザー向けのプラズマエッチングに強い。\n\n特に、\n\nDFB格子\n\nInPメサ\n\nリッジ導波路\n\n低損傷ICPエッチング\n\nパッシベーション\n\nを対象とする。提示された図の「格子の歯を掘る」工程に最も近い装置企業である。(Oxford Instruments)\n\n注意点\n\nInPレーザーは同社全体の一事業であり、株価は研究機器、分析装置、量子関連などにも左右される。\n\n8-4．CW DFBレーザーチップ\n\nCoherent〔NYSE：COHR〕\n\n量産能力では最有力候補である。\n\nCoherentはInP材料、エピ、レーザー、受光素子、光モジュールまで広く保有し、米国と欧州で6インチInP製造能力を拡張している。(Coherent Inc)\n\n強み\n\n6インチInP\n\n大量生産\n\nCWレーザー、EML、検出器\n\n光トランシーバーまでの垂直統合\n\nCPOが遅れてもプラガブル製品で需要を取れる\n\n注意点\n\n巨額設備投資\n\n6インチ量産歩留まり\n\n通信市場全体の市況\n\nレーザー単体の業績寄与が見えにくい\n\nLumentum〔NASDAQ：LITE〕\n\n性能とテーマ純度では最有力候補である。\n\nLumentumはInPプラットフォーム上のCWレーザー、UHPレーザー、外部レーザー源を展開する。2026年には1W超のSHPレーザーを示し、CPO、シリコンフォトニクス、coherent-lite向けを狙っている。(Lumentum Investor Relations)\n\n強み\n\n高出力\n\n狭線幅\n\n低RIN\n\n高温動作\n\nレーザーダイからELSまで\n\nAXTとの長期InP基板契約\n\nAIXTRON装置による能力増強\n\n注意点\n\n急拡大する設備投資\n\n顧客認証\n\n高出力製品の歩留まり\n\n光通信需要の変動\n\n古河電気工業〔5801〕\n\n日本株では最も直接的なCPO用DFBレーザー銘柄である。\n\n古河電工は高出力DFBレーザーチップ、複数チャネル外部レーザー源、偏波保持ファイバー、光コネクターを持つ。2025年12月には新しい岩手工場とタイの検査・組立設備を発表し、2028年度のDFBレーザーチップ能力を2025年度比500％超へ拡大する計画を示した。(Furukawa Electric)\n\n強み\n\n高出力DFB\n\nELS完成品\n\n光ファイバー・コネクター\n\n日本の長波長レーザー技術\n\n明確な増産計画\n\n注意点\n\n新工場の売上寄与は2028年前後\n\n建設、装置導入、歩留まり、認証の時間差\n\n全社には電線、自動車、電力事業も含まれる\n\nApplied Optoelectronics〔NASDAQ：AAOI〕\n\nAAOIは米国内にレーザーFabを持つ、比較的小規模な高感応度銘柄である。\n\n2025年12月には、シリコンフォトニクスとCPO向けの超高出力半導体レーザーを発表した。(AO Investors)\n\n強み\n\n自社InPレーザーFab\n\n小型企業のため採用時の業績感応度が高い\n\nトランシーバーとレーザーの内製\n\n注意点\n\n顧客集中\n\n設備投資負担\n\n歩留まり\n\n大手との競争\n\n株価変動の大きさ\n\nSivers Semiconductors〔Stockholm：SIVE〕\n\nSiversは高出力DFBレーザーアレイへの技術純度が高い。\n\nAyar LabsのSuperNova光源へ8波長、16波長のDFBレーザーアレイを提供し、InP100プラットフォームを使って光I/O向け多波長光源を開発している。(Sivers Semiconductors)\n\n強み\n\nCW-WDMレーザーアレイ\n\nAyar Labsとの関係\n\nOptical I/Oへの直接性\n\n小型株としての高い感応度\n\n注意点\n\n量産規模\n\n財務\n\n顧客依存\n\nOptical I/Oの立ち上がり時期\n\nBroadcom〔NASDAQ：AVGO〕\n\nBroadcomもO-band、1.3µm帯の高出力CWレーザーを持つ。\n\nただし投資対象としてはレーザー専業ではなく、スイッチASIC、SerDes、DSP、シリコンフォトニクス、CPOをまとめて持つシステム企業である。(Broadcom)\n\nレーザー不足への株価感応度は低いが、CPO全体を統合できる点では強い。\n\n8-5．外部レーザー源・光学実装\n\nLumentum\n\n高出力レーザーをサービス可能な外部レーザー源へまとめられる。レーザーダイだけでなく、光源モジュールとして販売できる点が強い。(Lumentum)\n\n古河電工\n\nDFBチップ、ELS、ファイバー、コネクター、放熱、光結合をまとめて供給できる。CPO用の外部光源まで一貫して扱える日本企業として重要である。(Furukawa Electric)\n\nCoherent\n\nレーザー、光サブアセンブリー、トランシーバーを持つため、ダイ販売だけでなく上位製品へ付加価値を移せる。\n\nFabrinet〔NYSE：FN〕\n\n精密光学・光電変換機器の製造受託企業である。特定のCWレーザー顧客は開示されないことが多いが、光学実装が複雑化するほど製造受託需要が増える可能性がある。2025年度の年次報告書でも精密光学・電気機械製造を主要事業としている。(Fabrinet Investor)\n\n8-6．検査・バーンイン\n\nKLA〔NASDAQ：KLAC〕\n\n化合物半導体を含むウェハーの表面欠陥、エピ欠陥、製造工程異常の検査に強い。6インチ化で面内均一性と欠陥管理の重要性が上がるほど、プロセス制御装置の価値が高まる。(KLA)\n\nただしInPレーザーはKLA全体から見れば小さな市場である。\n\nAehr Test Systems〔NASDAQ：AEHR〕\n\nフォトニクス、レーザー、シリコンフォトニクスのウェハー・ダイ・モジュール単位でのバーンインに露出する。\n\nレーザーの初期故障除去と光学特性安定化が必要になるほど、同社装置の重要性が高まる可能性がある。(Aehr Test Systems)\n\nただし現時点の同社業績はSiC、GaN、AIプロセッサー向け試験の影響も大きい。\n\nVIAVI Solutions〔NASDAQ：VIAV〕\n\n光パワーメーター、光スペクトラム、スイッチ、環境信頼性試験、光部品製造検査を提供する。レーザーダイそのものより、光源モジュール、ファイバー、コネクターを含む完成システム側への露出が強い。(VIAVI Solutions Inc.)\n\n## 9．投資テーマ別に整理する\n\n完成品の本命\n\nCoherent、Lumentum、古河電工\n\nCoherent：量産能力と6インチ化\n\nLumentum：高出力性能とレーザー事業純度\n\n古河電工：日本のDFB・ELSと明確な増産計画\n\n上流材料の本命\n\nAXT、住友電工、LandMark、IQE\n\nAXT：InP基板への高い感応度\n\n住友電工：高品質基板と垂直統合\n\nLandMark：DFB・CW用エピ\n\nIQE：外部エピ供給とAI向け契約\n\n設備投資のつるはし\n\nVeeco、AIXTRON、Oxford Instruments\n\nVeeco：2026年の大型受注が具体化\n\nAIXTRON：LumentumなどのMOCVD増強\n\nOxford：DFB格子・InPエッチング\n\n高リスク・高感応度\n\nAAOI、Sivers、AXT、IQE、LandMark\n\n採用や供給逼迫が業績へ大きく反映される可能性がある一方、顧客集中、財務、量産歩留まり、地政学の影響も大きい。\n\nCPO全体の統合企業\n\nBroadcom\n\nレーザーだけではなく、スイッチASICから光エンジンまでを含む。レーザー不足の純粋な投資先ではないが、CPO全体の商用化を主導できる。\n\n### 図解｜投資テーマ別の供給網整理\n\n![投資テーマ別の供給網整理 01](/media/a5a8ae5f33e9a3e476eb61a3455c41ccc0c131c1afd60f660690c94c105ed156-content.webp)\n\n## 10．今後確認すべき指標\n\nこのテーマでは、「技術発表」だけでは量産を判断できない。\n\n重要なのは次の順序である。\n\n研究試作\n  ↓\n顧客サンプル\n  ↓\n信頼性評価\n  ↓\n顧客認証\n  ↓\n能力予約・LTA\n  ↓\n装置発注\n  ↓\n工場完成\n  ↓\n初期量産\n  ↓\n歩留まり改善\n  ↓\n本格売上\n\n確認すべき項目は、\n\nInP基板の能力予約とデポジット\n\nMOCVD装置受注\n\n6インチ移行率\n\nDFBレーザーの波長別歩留まり\n\n高温時の光出力\n\n電力変換効率\n\n線幅とRIN\n\n顧客認証数\n\nELSのチャネル数\n\nバーンイン時間\n\n新工場の稼働時期\n\n売上より先に増える減価償却費\n\nである。\n\n特にAXTとLumentumの長期契約、Veecoの2億5,000万ドル超の装置受注、AIXTRONのLumentum向け複数装置、古河電工の500％超増産計画は、InPレーザー需要が研究段階から実際の能力確保へ移り始めていることを示す。(AXT, Inc.)\n\n### 図解｜増産と供給網の確認指標\n\n![増産と供給網の確認指標 01](/media/02dab0a89c9ff6ac5ffd94e99da5de9786fcd71961cdfa3e847d778f91e06b91-content.webp)\n\n## 結論――InPレーザーは一枚のチップではなく、供給網全体の総合技術である\n\nCW DFB型InPレーザーは、中央の量子井戸で光を作り、SCHとクラッドで光を閉じ込め、BHやリッジで電流と横モードを制御し、DFB格子で波長を選択する。\n\nしかし量産を難しくしているのは、構造そのものだけではない。\n\n高品質InP基板\n\nナノメートル単位のMQW成長\n\n微細DFB格子\n\n汚染を許さない再成長\n\n高出力時の熱設計\n\n端面コーティング\n\nファイバー結合\n\n長時間バーンイン\n\n顧客認証\n\nをすべて成立させなければならない。\n\n日本は、末松安晴氏らによる長波長単一モードレーザーと位相シフトDFBの研究から、NTTのBH・再成長技術、古河電工の高出力DFB・ELS、住友電工のInP基板と光デバイスまで、長い技術的蓄積を持つ。\n\n一方、現在の量産競争ではCoherentの6インチInP、Lumentumの超高出力光源、Veeco・AIXTRONの装置増強、AXT・IQE・LandMarkの上流供給も重要である。\n\nしたがって、このテーマは単なる「レーザー銘柄探し」ではない。\n\nAI計算基盤の光化によって、InP基板、エピ、MOCVD、DFB格子、再成長、レーザーチップ、光学実装、検査まで、古い化合物半導体産業全体が再評価される構造変化\n\nとして見る必要がある。\n\n光変調、シリコンフォトニクス、CWレーザー、InP基板、化合物半導体は、なぜ発展してきたのか\n\nこれらの技術は別々に生まれましたが、現在は一つの光通信システムの中で役割分担しています。\n\nその歴史を一文で表すと、\n\n電気だけでは遠く・速く・低消費電力で情報を運べないため、光を作る材料、光へ情報を載せる技術、光を処理する回路、そしてそれらを量産する製造基盤が順番に発展してきた\n\nという流れです。\n\nなお、ここでは「InP基盤」を、結晶の土台であるInP基板と、その上にレーザーや受光器を作るInP系デバイス・プラットフォームの両方を含む意味で説明します。\n\n## 1．全体の歴史を先に見る\n\n| 時代 | 主な課題 | 発展した技術 | 目的 |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 1940～1950年代 | 真空管を小型化したい | Si・Ge半導体、III-V化合物半導体研究 | 電子回路の小型化、高速化 |\n| 1960年代 | 半導体から強い光を出したい | 半導体レーザー、ヘテロ構造 | 電気を直接レーザー光へ変える |\n| 1970年代 | 光ファイバー通信を実用化したい | 低損失ファイバー、室温CWレーザー、InP系材料 | 長距離電話通信 |\n| 1980年代 | 波長を安定させ、高速化したい | InGaAsP/InP、DFB、MQW、BH、外部変調 | 単一波長・高速・高信頼化 |\n| 1990年代 | インターネット幹線の容量を増やしたい | WDM、LiNbO₃変調器、光増幅器、InP光集積 | 一本のファイバーで多波長伝送 |\n| 2000年代 | 光部品を安く大量に作りたい | シリコンフォトニクス、高速Si変調器、III-V/Si接合 | CMOS量産技術を光回路へ導入 |\n| 2010年代 | データセンター接続を高速化したい | 100G～800G光トランシーバー、PAM4、SiPh量産 | サーバー間・ラック間接続 |\n| 2020年代 | AI計算機内部の電気配線限界 | CPO、Optical I/O、高出力CWレーザー | 光をASIC・パッケージ近傍へ移す |\n\n重要なのは、技術が古いものから新しいものへ完全に置き換わったのではないことです。\n\n現在のCPOでも、\n\n1950～60年代に始まった化合物半導体\n\n1970年代に実用化されたCW半導体レーザー\n\n1980年代に成熟したInP DFBレーザー\n\n1990年代に発展した外部光変調\n\n2000年代から本格化したシリコンフォトニクス\n\nが一つのシステムへ集まっています。\n\n### 図解｜光通信技術の歴史と半導体レーザーの出発点\n\n![光通信技術の歴史と半導体レーザーの出発点 01](/media/accc323a3ba5d187baba67dedadda47846e3ccb0d99ab6ad146bf30cfe8f1a14-content.webp)\n\n![光通信技術の歴史と半導体レーザーの出発点 02](/media/80e4d5cdcaf16b63299afc239a771df8e663090b2fdcf44dd7543758278652b6-content.webp)\n\n## 2．化合物半導体は、シリコンではできないことを担うために発展した\n\n半導体の出発点は電子回路だった\n\n1940年代後半にトランジスタが登場し、1950年代にはゲルマニウムやシリコンを使った電子回路の研究が進みました。\n\nシリコンは、\n\n原料が豊富\n\n酸化膜を作りやすい\n\n大口径化しやすい\n\n集積回路を大量生産しやすい\n\n安定したMOSトランジスタを作れる\n\nという性質を持ち、論理回路とメモリの中心材料になりました。\n\nしかし、シリコンは万能ではありません。特に、効率的な発光や非常に高速な電子移動には、必ずしも最適ではありません。\n\nそこで1950年代初頭から、周期表のIII族元素とV族元素を組み合わせるIII-V族化合物半導体が研究されました。NISTの歴史資料によれば、当初はSiやGeより優れたトランジスタ材料を目指して探索されましたが、後にLED、半導体レーザー、マイクロ波デバイスで重要な用途を得ました。(NIST Publications)\n\n化合物半導体とは何か\n\n代表例は、\n\nGaAs：ガリウム・ヒ素\n\nInP：インジウム・リン\n\nGaN：ガリウム・窒素\n\nInGaAs：インジウム・ガリウム・ヒ素\n\nInGaAsP：インジウム・ガリウム・ヒ素・リン\n\nAlGaInAs：アルミニウム・ガリウム・インジウム・ヒ素\n\nです。\n\n元素の組み合わせと比率を変えることで、\n\nバンドギャップ\n\n発光波長\n\n屈折率\n\n電子移動度\n\n耐圧\n\n熱特性\n\nを設計できます。\n\n自然界にある一種類の材料を使うのではなく、用途に合う性質を人工的に組み合わせるための材料体系です。\n\nなぜ発光には化合物半導体が有利なのか\n\nGaAsやInP系材料の多くは直接遷移型半導体です。\n\n電子と正孔が再結合するとき、運動量を大きく変えずに光子を放出できるため、電気エネルギーを光へ変換しやすい性質があります。\n\n一方、シリコンは間接遷移型で、発光時に格子振動も関与する必要があるため、通常の構造では発光効率が低くなります。NISTも、直接遷移型半導体やそのヘテロ構造が、強い光放出を必要とするレーザーダイオードなどに使われると説明しています。(NIST Publications)\n\nしたがって、産業は次のように分業しました。\n\nシリコン\n→ 計算、論理、メモリ、大規模集積\n\nIII-V化合物半導体\n→ 発光、受光、高周波、高出力、高速電子\n\n現在の光通信でも、この分業が基本です。\n\n### 図解｜化合物半導体の役割\n\n![化合物半導体の役割 01](/media/73a5b76b2c95b9390cd8c244f6ff4e4f930edb8a7ae8f9b82ef0b62bb59ab5a3-content.webp)\n\n## 3．ヘテロ構造が、実用的な半導体レーザーを可能にした\n\n初期レーザーの問題\n\n初期の半導体レーザーでは、電子、正孔、光を狭い領域に十分閉じ込められませんでした。\n\nその結果、\n\n大きな電流が必要\n\n発熱が大きい\n\n低温でしか安定しない\n\nパルス動作が中心\n\n寿命が短い\n\nという問題がありました。\n\nここで登場したのがヘテロ構造です。\n\n異なる半導体を重ねる\n\nヘテロ構造では、バンドギャップと屈折率が異なる半導体を積層します。\n\n広いバンドギャップ材料\n────────────────\n狭いバンドギャップ材料\n────────────────\n広いバンドギャップ材料\n\n中央へ電子と正孔を閉じ込めると同時に、屈折率差を利用して光も閉じ込めます。\n\nHerbert Kroemerは1957年にヘテロ構造トランジスタを提案し、1963年前後にはKroemerとZhores Alferovが独立にヘテロ構造レーザーの原理を発展させました。1960年代末から1970年ごろには、二重ヘテロ構造によって室温で連続動作できる半導体レーザーが実現しました。(Nobel Prize)\n\n何が変わったのか\n\n二重ヘテロ構造によって、\n\n電子と正孔を中央へ集中\n\n光も中央へ閉じ込める\n\n発振しきい値を低下\n\n発熱を低減\n\n室温でCW動作\n\n長寿命化\n\nが可能になりました。\n\nこの発明は、単にレーザーを改善しただけではありません。\n\n半導体レーザーを研究室の装置から、通信機器へ組み込める部品へ変えた\n\nことが重要です。\n\nヘテロ構造の発展は、高速トランジスタと光デバイスの両方の基盤となり、AlferovとKroemerは2000年のノーベル物理学賞を受賞しています。(Nobel Prize)\n\n### 図解｜ヘテロ構造と室温CW動作\n\n![ヘテロ構造と室温CW動作 01](/media/876d108e24060e8a7ed3a84fa6d3e071ab9e7d8142cfe192a04675d92c3b35d0-content.webp)\n\n![ヘテロ構造と室温CW動作 02](/media/54eb9de965f7bc485f2fa8b2e8a434f203a5e613ddca607149f02e06964cab57-content.webp)\n\n## 4．CWレーザーは、光ファイバーへ安定した光を入れるために発展した\n\nCWとは何か\n\nCWはContinuous Wave、連続波です。\n\n一定の光を連続的に発生させます。\n\n時間 →\n\nCW光\n━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━\n\nこれに対してパルスレーザーは、短い時間だけ強い光を出します。\n\n初期の半導体レーザーでは発熱のため連続動作が難しく、短いパルスで動かすことが多くありました。\n\nしかし通信では、装置を常時稼働させる必要があります。\n\nそのため、\n\n室温\n\n低電流\n\n長時間\n\n安定出力\n\n長寿命\n\nで連続動作するレーザーが必要になりました。\n\n光ファイバーの登場が目的を与えた\n\n1960年代には、光を通信へ使う構想があっても、ガラスの損失が大きく、遠距離伝送は困難でした。\n\n1970年にCorningが通信用の低損失光ファイバーを実証し、その後損失が急速に低下したことで、光ファイバー通信が現実的になりました。(IEEE Spectrum)\n\n光ファイバーが低損失になったことで、今度は、\n\nファイバーへ入れる、小型で安定した半導体光源が必要\n\nになりました。\n\nつまり、\n\n低損失光ファイバー\n＋\n室温CW半導体レーザー\n＝\n実用的な光通信\n\nという関係です。\n\nCWレーザーの役割は時代によって変わった\n\n1970年代\n\n電話局間の長距離通信に使う光源。\n\n1980～1990年代\n\n海底ケーブル、幹線通信、WDMの安定光源。\n\n2000～2010年代\n\nインターネットとデータセンターの光トランシーバー。\n\n2020年代\n\nシリコンフォトニクスやCPOへ連続光を供給する外部光源。\n\nCWレーザーという基本機能は変わっていません。\n\n変わったのは、光を届ける距離です。\n\n通信局間\n→ 都市間\n→ データセンター間\n→ ラック間\n→ ボード間\n→ パッケージ間\n\n光が計算機へ近づくほど、高出力、小型、低消費電力、高信頼性が求められるようになりました。\n\n### 図解｜CWレーザーと光ファイバー\n\n![CWレーザーと光ファイバー 01](/media/5a775bcf3dc71f9dcfed5a9e3a90de8f0c943eadd9e10c0fcf6983428a00532c-content.webp)\n\n## 5．InP基板は、光ファイバーに適した波長を作るために重要になった\n\n最初の半導体レーザーはGaAs系だった\n\n初期の半導体レーザーでは、GaAsやAlGaAsが中心でした。\n\nGaAs系は発光しやすく、近赤外光源として優れていました。しかし長距離光ファイバー通信では、シリカファイバーの損失や分散が小さくなる1.3µm帯と1.55µm帯が重要になりました。\n\nその波長帯を効率よく作る材料として発展したのが、\n\nInP基板\n\nInGaAsP活性層\n\nAlGaInAs活性層\n\nInGaAs受光層\n\nです。\n\nNISTは、InGaAsP合金が現代の光ファイバー通信の基礎材料になったと説明しています。(NIST)\n\nInPは土台であり、材料設計の基準\n\nInP基板の上に、InGaAsPなどをエピタキシャル成長します。\n\n元素比率を変えることで、結晶格子をInPに合わせながら、\n\n1.3µm\n\n1.55µm\n\n受光波長\n\nバンドギャップ\n\n屈折率\n\nを調整できます。\n\nInP基板\n   ↓\nInPバッファ\n   ↓\nInGaAsP / AlGaInAs量子井戸\n   ↓\nInPクラッド\n\n住友電工は、光通信レーザーの品質がInPウェハーの結晶品質に強く依存し、単結晶インゴットの成長、切断、結晶方位、欠けやすさまで厳密な管理が必要だと説明しています。(Sumitomo Electric)\n\nなぜシリコン基板ではなくInPなのか\n\nシリコン上へ直接高品質なInP系結晶を成長すると、格子定数や熱膨張係数の違いから欠陥が発生しやすくなります。\n\nそのため長く、\n\nInP基板上でレーザーを作る\n\n完成したレーザーをシリコン光回路へ接続する\n\n方法が使われてきました。\n\n近年は、\n\nInPダイをシリコンへ接合\n\nInP薄膜をウェハーへ貼り合わせる\n\nIII-V材料をSi導波路へ異種集積\n\n量子ドットをSi上へ成長\n\nといった技術が研究されています。\n\n2006年にはUCSBとIntelの研究で、AlGaInAs系III-V材料とシリコン導波路を接合した電気駆動ハイブリッドレーザーが実証されました。(Bears)\n\n### 図解｜InP基板と通信波長\n\n![InP基板と通信波長 01](/media/de1f8f08d036fb737eef862e3c1d55328dd1edce9a3b7cc1089f1c3033fc77ce-content.webp)\n\n## 6．量子井戸は、少ない電流で効率よく光を作るために発展した\n\n初期のレーザー活性層は、比較的厚いバルク材料でした。\n\nその後、結晶成長技術が進歩し、数nm単位の薄い層を作れるようになると、電子と正孔を非常に薄い領域へ閉じ込める量子井戸が使われるようになりました。\n\n量子井戸によって、\n\nキャリア密度を高める\n\nしきい値電流を下げる\n\n発光波長を精密に調整する\n\n光利得を高める\n\n高速変調しやすくする\n\nことができます。\n\nさらに複数の量子井戸を重ねたMQW、歪みを加えた歪み量子井戸、SCH、BH構造へ進化しました。\n\nここで目的は、\n\n光を強くするだけでなく、電子、正孔、光、電流をそれぞれ最適な場所へ閉じ込める\n\nことへ変わりました。\n\n### 図解｜量子井戸の効率\n\n![量子井戸の効率 01](/media/38174c5d7991446abd6b6275e6925fe8e353192f6a03fb8c8625a53fce1e8df8-content.webp)\n\n## 7．DFBレーザーは、光通信で使える安定した単一波長を作るために発展した\n\n単純なFabry–Pérot型半導体レーザーは、複数の縦モードが発振しやすくなります。\n\n短距離・低速用途では許容できても、長距離通信やWDMでは、\n\n波長が飛ぶ\n\nモードが競合する\n\n分散によって波形が崩れる\n\n隣接波長と干渉する\n\nという問題が生じます。\n\nそこでレーザー内部に周期的な回折格子を設けたDFBレーザーが発展しました。\n\nレーザー全長に回折格子\n∧∧∧∧∧∧∧∧∧∧∧\n━━━━━━━━━━━━\n\n格子が特定波長だけを帰還することで、安定した単一モード発振を得ます。\n\n日本では旧東京工業大学の末松安晴氏らが、1978年に長波長DBRレーザー、1980年に高速直接変調下での単一モード動作、1983年に位相シフトDFBレーザーと波長可変レーザーを実証しました。これらの成果は後のWDM通信の基盤となりました。(International School of Cocoa and Tea)\n\n当時の時代背景\n\n1980年代には、電話網のデジタル化と光ファイバー敷設が進んでいました。\n\n求められたのは、\n\n長距離でも信号が崩れない\n\n温度が変わっても波長が安定\n\n高速変調しても単一モード\n\n海底ケーブルでも長期間故障しない\n\nレーザーです。\n\nこの要求が、\n\nInP\n\nInGaAsP\n\nMQW\n\nDFB\n\nλ/4位相シフト\n\nBH再成長\n\nを組み合わせる技術を発展させました。\n\n### 図解｜DFBレーザーの単一波長化\n\n![DFBレーザーの単一波長化 01](/media/a74cb7623a3c0f918eceeff73793e23ed125817839e4ec4473bdf4d187e2bf46-content.webp)\n\n## 8．光変調は、レーザーを安定させたまま通信速度を上げるために発展した\n\n最初はレーザーを直接オン・オフした\n\n半導体レーザーへ流す電流を変えると、光出力も変わります。\n\n電流を増やす → 光が強い\n電流を減らす → 光が弱い\n\nこれは直接変調です。\n\n構造が簡単で安価なため、現在も短距離通信で広く使われています。\n\nしかし高速化すると、光強度だけでなく発振周波数や波長も変化します。これがチャープです。\n\n長距離光ファイバーでは、チャープとファイバー分散が組み合わさり、パルスが広がります。\n\n光源と情報書き込みを分離した\n\nそこで、\n\nCWレーザー\n→ 安定した連続光を作る\n\n外部光変調器\n→ その光へ情報を載せる\n\nという分業が発展しました。\n\nレーザー電流を大きく変化させないため、\n\n波長を安定させやすい\n\nチャープを抑えやすい\n\n高速化しやすい\n\n位相や多値信号も扱える\n\n長距離通信に向く\n\nという利点があります。\n\n光変調器の材料\n\n歴史的に、長距離通信では電気光学効果の大きいニオブ酸リチウムを使ったMach–Zehnder変調器が重要になりました。\n\nその後、\n\nInP系EA変調器\n\nEML\n\nシリコンMZM\n\nシリコンリング変調器\n\n薄膜ニオブ酸リチウム\n\nIII-V/Siハイブリッド変調器\n\nへ選択肢が広がりました。\n\n目的は一貫しています。\n\nレーザーを光源として安定動作させ、別の高速素子で情報を載せる\n\nということです。\n\n### 図解｜外部変調による高速化\n\n![外部変調による高速化 01](/media/b924a77c09f91ec28c708d5487696bf1131574b2e813edf3aefc688912972344-content.webp)\n\n## 9．光変調の目的は「オン・オフ」から「多値・位相制御」へ変化した\n\n初期：OOK・NRZ\n\n光が強ければ1、弱ければ0という単純な方式です。\n\n1 0 1 1 0\n━ ─ ━ ━ ─\n\n高速化：PAM4\n\n光強度を4段階に分け、一回の変化で2ビットを表します。\n\nレベル3 → 11\nレベル2 → 10\nレベル1 → 01\nレベル0 → 00\n\n同じ変調速度でも、NRZの約2倍のビットを運べます。\n\n長距離・高容量：位相・振幅変調\n\nコヒーレント通信では、\n\n振幅\n\n位相\n\n偏光\n\nを組み合わせ、QPSKやQAMなどで情報量を増やします。\n\nしたがって、光変調器は単純な光スイッチから、\n\n電気データを、光の強度・位相・偏光へ精密に写し替える装置\n\nへ進化しました。\n\n### 図解｜多値・位相変調\n\n![多値・位相変調 01](/media/abac9aa89229ffa8fd9bd40cc611f59d1f4fd61dadb0833b166d0d365c022914-content.webp)\n\n## 10．シリコンフォトニクスは、光回路を半導体産業の量産方式へ持ち込むために発展した\n\n従来の光学部品は大きく、高価だった\n\n初期の光通信装置では、\n\nレーザー\n\nレンズ\n\nフィルター\n\n分岐器\n\n合波器\n\n変調器\n\n受光器\n\nが個別部品でした。\n\n人間や高価な装置が位置合わせを行い、一つずつ組み立てる必要がありました。\n\n通信容量が増えると、部品数、面積、消費電力、コストが問題になります。\n\n光回路をチップへ集積する\n\nシリコンフォトニクスでは、シリコンまたはシリコン系材料上に、\n\n光導波路\n\nMZM\n\nリング変調器\n\n分岐器\n\n合波器\n\n波長フィルター\n\nGeフォトダイオード\n\nファイバー結合器\n\nを形成します。\n\nこの分野は1980年代のシリコン導波路研究から始まり、2000年代に高速変調器とIII-V/Si集積の進歩によって本格化しました。研究レビューでも、1.3µm・1.6µm帯のシリコン導波路研究が1980年代に始まったと整理されています。(Optica Publishing Group)\n\n2004年が重要な転換点\n\n2004年、Intelは1GHzを超えるシリコン光変調器を実証しました。\n\nそれ以前のシリコン変調器は速度が低く、実用的なデータ通信には不十分でした。高速化によって、\n\nシリコンCMOSに近い製造技術で、通信に使える光変調器を作れる\n\n可能性が明確になりました。(Intel)\n\n2006年には、III-V利得材料をシリコン導波路へ接合した電気駆動ハイブリッドレーザーも実証され、シリコンが苦手とする発光をIII-V材料で補う方向が示されました。(Bears)\n\n### 図解｜SiPhの量産技術\n\n![SiPhの量産技術 01](/media/4beced4f8a6b196af07eb560a0950c38b50044f55fc2235f1d1ba672390fc168-content.webp)\n\n## 11．シリコンフォトニクスは「すべてをシリコンにする技術」ではない\n\n名前から、レーザーまでシリコンだけで作るように感じますが、実態は異なります。\n\nシリコンフォトニクスの強みは、\n\n光を導く\n\n光を分ける\n\n光をまとめる\n\n光を変調する\n\n電子回路と高密度接続する\n\nウェハー単位で量産する\n\nことです。\n\n一方で、発光にはInP系III-V材料が有利です。\n\nそのため現実の構成は、\n\nInP・III-V\n→ 光を作る、増幅する\n\nシリコンフォトニクス\n→ 光を導く、変調する、分岐・合波する\n\nCMOS\n→ データを作る、制御する、信号処理する\n\nという異種材料の協業です。\n\nIntelも、シリコンフォトニクスを「シリコンの製造規模と光の能力を一つのチップへ組み合わせる」技術として説明し、2016年以降に量産展開を進めてきました。(Intel)\n\n### 図解｜SiPhと異種材料の分業\n\n![SiPhと異種材料の分業 01](/media/f23c6e31e2e6880fe6ddd8e6f9fa5a6d4b125ff04498a05aebc3ee5c711c3e45-content.webp)\n\n![SiPhと異種材料の分業 02](/media/02c1fe5ceb7ccba2901e851a5e417ef5cca48d8dbf7a0eb28691858b72d19a21-content.webp)\n\n## 12．なぜ2000年代にシリコンフォトニクスが必要になったのか\n\nプロセッサー内部より、データ移動が問題になった\n\n半導体のトランジスタ数は増えましたが、チップ間、基板間、サーバー間の電気接続には、\n\n配線損失\n\nクロストーク\n\nSerDes消費電力\n\n到達距離\n\nコネクター密度\n\n発熱\n\nという限界があります。\n\nマルチコア化、クラウド、動画配信、検索、SNSが拡大すると、計算そのものよりデータ移動が大きな課題になりました。\n\nIntelは2008年時点で、マルチコア計算機とデータ集約型用途には高速な光接続が必要になり、シリコンフォトニクスが低コストで主流コンピューティングへ光を持ち込む可能性を説明していました。(Intel)\n\nデータセンターが最初の大市場になった\n\n光をCPU内部へすぐ導入するより、まずサーバー間・ラック間接続へ使う方が実現しやすいためです。\n\nその結果、\n\n長距離通信\n→ メトロ通信\n→ データセンター間\n→ データセンター内部\n→ ラック間\n\nという順番で光化が進みました。\n\n13．2010年代は、光技術が通信装置から計算機産業へ移った時代\n\nクラウド事業者は巨大なデータセンターを建設し、\n\n100GbE\n\n200GbE\n\n400GbE\n\n800GbE\n\nへ接続速度を高めました。\n\nシリコンフォトニクスは、光トランシーバー内で、\n\nレーザー光を受け取る\n\n複数レーンへ分ける\n\n光変調する\n\n波長を合波する\n\n受信光を検出する\n\n役割を担うようになりました。\n\nIntelは2010年に、ハイブリッドレーザーを統合した50Gbpsシリコン光接続を実証し、光接続がコンピューター設計を変える可能性を示しました。(Intel)\n\nこの時代の目的は、\n\n通信会社の幹線を高速化することから、データセンター内で大量のサーバーを安価につなぐこと\n\nへ変わりました。\n\n14．2020年代は、AIが光をパッケージ近くへ引き寄せた\n\nAIクラスターでは、数千～数十万個規模のGPUやアクセラレーターがデータを交換します。\n\n性能は一個のGPUだけでなく、\n\nGPU間帯域\n\nスイッチ帯域\n\nラック間通信\n\nネットワーク階層\n\n通信電力\n\nで決まります。\n\n電気配線では、距離と速度が増えるほどイコライザーやSerDesの電力が増えます。\n\nそこで光変換部を、\n\n装置前面の光トランシーバー\n→ 基板上\n→ ASIC近傍\n→ 同一パッケージ\n\nへ近づけるCPOやOptical I/Oが注目されています。\n\nIntelは2024年、シリコンフォトニック回路、レーザー、光増幅器、電子ICを組み合わせた光I/OチップレットをCPUと共同動作させる実証を発表しました。(Newsroom)\n\nAI・HPC需要が、シリコンフォトニクスをデータセンターの通信部品から、計算パッケージの一部へ変えようとしています。(Intel)\n\n### 図解｜シリコン光回路とGe受光器\n\n![シリコン光回路とGe受光器 01](/media/067abdbd4b987bf42bfa51ad8c6e4608d1f4f7825dea5ee3d935d1381b348842-content.webp)\n\n![シリコン光回路とGe受光器 02](/media/57843ce250907cf7bd1c6f395a40d43a65902ea15de38775668dae3f464d6b57-content.webp)\n\n## 15．なぜ現在、CW InPレーザーが再び重要になったのか\n\nシリコンフォトニクスが大量に使われても、光源がなければ動きません。\n\nCPOではASIC近傍が高温になるため、レーザーをASICから離し、比較的冷たい場所に置く外部レーザー方式が有力です。\n\n外部CW InPレーザー\n        ↓\n安定した連続光\n        ↓\n光ファイバー\n        ↓\nASIC近傍のシリコン変調器\n        ↓\nデータを載せた光\n\nこの構成ではCWレーザーに、\n\n高出力\n\n狭線幅\n\n低雑音\n\n波長安定性\n\n高温信頼性\n\n長寿命\n\n複数波長\n\n低消費電力\n\nが求められます。\n\nつまりCWレーザーは、昔の電話網と同じ「連続光を作る部品」ですが、現在は一個の光を多数の変調器へ分配し、AI計算システム全体を動かす光源になろうとしています。\n\n### 図解｜CPOと外部CW InPレーザー\n\n![CPOと外部CW InPレーザー 01](/media/dc52f3575d8a36da3f1df714c74ffb3d51bc745f40f153d3ee15adea2a17ab3a-content.webp)\n\n![CPOと外部CW InPレーザー 02](/media/2d90cd7b420a962d1748267069e93e60c70653fca900b6f15bd265693a7d56be-content.webp)\n\n## 16．それぞれの技術は、何を解決するために生まれたのか\n\n化合物半導体\n\nシリコンでは難しい発光・高周波・高出力を実現するため。\n\n現在の役割：\n\nレーザー\n\n受光器\n\n光増幅器\n\nRF\n\nパワー半導体\n\nInP基板・InPプラットフォーム\n\n光ファイバーに適した1.3～1.55µm帯の光を作るため。\n\n現在の役割：\n\nCW DFBレーザー\n\nEML\n\nSOA\n\nフォトダイオード\n\n光集積回路\n\nCWレーザー\n\n長時間安定して光ファイバーへ光を供給するため。\n\n現在の役割：\n\n光通信の搬送波\n\nシリコンフォトニクスの外部光源\n\nCPOの複数チャネル光源\n\n光変調\n\nレーザーを安定動作させたまま、高速データを光へ載せるため。\n\n現在の役割：\n\nNRZ\n\nPAM4\n\n位相変調\n\nコヒーレント通信\n\nCPO光エンジン\n\nシリコンフォトニクス\n\n光回路を小型化し、CMOSに近い方式で大量生産するため。\n\n現在の役割：\n\n変調器\n\n導波路\n\nWDM\n\n分岐・合波\n\n受光器\n\nOptical I/O\n\n## 17．この歴史の本質\n\nこれらの技術は、一直線に進化したわけではありません。\n\nそれぞれが別の限界を解いています。\n\n化合物半導体\n「シリコンは効率よく光らない」\n        ↓\n\nInP\n「通信に適した波長を出したい」\n        ↓\n\nCWレーザー\n「光を安定して出し続けたい」\n        ↓\n\nDFB・量子井戸・BH\n「波長、効率、寿命を改善したい」\n        ↓\n\n光変調器\n「光源を乱さず高速に情報を載せたい」\n        ↓\n\nシリコンフォトニクス\n「多数の光機能を安く集積したい」\n        ↓\n\nCPO・Optical I/O\n「光を計算チップの直近まで持ってきたい」\n\nしたがって現在起きているのは、まったく新しい技術の登場というより、\n\n通信産業が50年以上かけて育てたInPレーザー、光変調、光回路の技術を、AI計算機産業が内部接続へ取り込む転換\n\nです。\n\n### 図解｜分業から統合へ進む光技術\n\n![分業から統合へ進む光技術 01](/media/b1c8e0a936b5610e0c139ad9494a406db60ef1b56befac298da46d666c3ac544-content.webp)\n\n## 結論\n\n化合物半導体は、シリコンが苦手とする光と高速電子を扱うために発展しました。\n\nInP基板は、光ファイバー通信に適した波長のレーザーと受光器を作る土台になりました。\n\nCWレーザーは、安定した光を長時間供給するために実用化されました。\n\n光変調は、レーザー光を乱さずに高速な情報を載せるために発展しました。\n\nシリコンフォトニクスは、それらの光処理機能を小さなチップへ集積し、大量生産するために生まれました。\n\nそしてAI時代には、\n\nInPが光を作り、シリコンフォトニクスが光を加工し、CMOSが情報を作り、光ファイバーがそれを運ぶ\n\nという異種材料の分業が、計算基盤そのものを支える構造になりつつあります。\n\n世界のInP・MQW・DFB・シリコンフォトニクス研究と企業への接続\n\n基礎研究は、Coherent、Lumentum、Sivers、AAOIへどう受け継がれたのか\n\n現在の高出力CW-DFBレーザーやシリコンフォトニクスは、一社、一大学、一人の研究者が完成させた技術ではない。\n\nその基盤には、\n\n半導体からレーザー光を発生させる技術\n\nヘテロ構造によるキャリアと光の閉じ込め\n\nMQWによる利得設計\n\nSCHによる光モード設計\n\nDFB格子による単一波長化\n\nInPによる1.3～1.55µm帯の発光\n\nIII-Vレーザーとシリコン光回路の統合\n\n複数波長レーザーを光I/Oへ供給する技術\n\nという、半世紀以上の研究成果が積み重なっている。\n\nしたがって企業とのつながりを見る際には、「この研究者の発明をこの会社がそのまま製品化した」という一対一の関係だけでなく、大学発スタートアップ、企業研究所、買収による技術統合、共同研究、製造技術への継承という複数の経路を区別する必要がある。\n\n1．1962年――半導体そのものをレーザーにする\n\n1962年、General ElectricのRobert Hallら、IBMのMarshall Nathanら、MIT Lincoln LaboratoryのThomas Quistらが、ほぼ同時期にGaAs接合からレーザー発振を実証した。\n\nこれは電流を流すだけで光を発生させる、半導体レーザーの出発点だった。当初の素子は低温・パルス動作が中心で、現在の通信レーザーとは性能も構造も大きく異なる。しかし、\n\n半導体チップが、電気信号を直接コヒーレント光へ変換できる\n\nことを証明した意味は大きい。現在のInPレーザーも、原理的にはこの注入型半導体レーザーの延長にある。(Nature)\n\nただし、初期レーザーは電子、正孔、光を狭い領域へ十分に閉じ込められず、発振に大電流が必要だった。この問題を解いたのが、ヘテロ構造である。\n\n## 2．KroemerとAlferov――MQW・SCHの大元となるヘテロ構造\n\nHerbert KroemerとZhores Alferovは、異なるバンドギャップを持つ半導体を重ねたヘテロ構造によって、電子、正孔、光を薄い活性領域へ集中させる考え方を発展させた。\n\n中央に狭いバンドギャップ材料、その上下に広いバンドギャップ材料を配置すると、電子と正孔は中央へ閉じ込められる。同時に屈折率差を利用して光も中央付近へ保持できる。\n\n広いバンドギャップ・低屈折率\n──────────────────\n狭いバンドギャップ・高屈折率\n──────────────────\n広いバンドギャップ・低屈折率\n\nこの二重ヘテロ構造によって、室温CW動作、低しきい値、長寿命化が可能になった。今日のMQW、SCH、クラッド構造は、基本的にはこの考えをさらに細分化し、電子と光の閉じ込めを別々に最適化したものだ。KroemerとAlferovは、このヘテロ構造研究によって2000年のノーベル物理学賞を受賞している。(Nobel Prize)\n\n現在の企業との関係は直接的な創業関係ではない。むしろ、Coherent、Lumentum、Sivers、AAOIを含むすべてのIII-Vレーザー企業が、この原理を製品構造として受け継いでいる。\n\nたとえば現在のInPレーザーでは、\n\nMQWがキャリアと利得を制御\n\nSCHが光モードを制御\n\nInPクラッドが上下方向の光と電流を制御\n\nBHが横方向の電流と光を制御\n\nという形に発展している。\n\n### 図解｜KroemerとAlferov\n\n![KroemerとAlferov 01](/media/e6bd9b57e695ae042d925fc461e124aad9fea0f0e0be21a96272c9ee618c4a99-content.webp)\n\n## 3．江崎玲於奈、Raphael Tsu、Dingle、van der Ziel――量子井戸を活性層へ持ち込む\n\n1969～1970年、江崎玲於奈とRaphael Tsuは、異なる半導体を原子層単位で周期的に積層する人工超格子を提案した。\n\nこれは自然に存在する材料を使うのではなく、層厚と材料組成によって電子状態そのものを設計する発想だった。この研究から、量子井戸、超格子、量子細線、量子ドットへつながる低次元半導体研究が発展した。(Japan Prize)\n\nBell LaboratoriesではRaymond Dingle、Jan van der Zielらが1970年代に量子井戸構造の光学特性とレーザー動作を研究した。1975年には、GaAsの薄い量子井戸を多数含む構造で光励起レーザー動作が報告された。これは後の電流注入MQWレーザーへつながる重要な段階だった。(IEEE Milestones Wiki)\n\n量子井戸を使うと、井戸厚、組成、歪み、井戸数によって、\n\n利得スペクトル\n\n発振波長\n\n微分利得\n\nしきい値電流\n\n温度特性\n\n偏光\n\nを設計できる。\n\nこの技術が、CoherentやLumentumの高出力CWレーザー、Siversの多波長DFBアレイ、AAOIのデータセンター用レーザーに使われるMQW活性層の基礎となっている。\n\n### 図解｜量子井戸を活性層へ持ち込んだ研究\n\n![量子井戸を活性層へ持ち込んだ研究 01](/media/b0ca16754179e27d39b6ef5b1be76f91c08515e02602146b2036ccaad52a43c9-content.webp)\n\n## 4．KogelnikとShank――DFBレーザーの基本原理を作る\n\nBell LaboratoriesのHerwig KogelnikとCharles Shankは、1971～1972年に周期構造による分布帰還レーザーを実証・理論化した。\n\n通常のレーザーはチップ両端の鏡で光を往復させる。一方、DFBでは導波路全長にわたる格子が、小さなブラッグ反射を連続的に発生させる。\n\nKogelnikとShankの結合波理論は、\n\n前方へ進む光\n\n後方へ進む光\n\n格子による結合\n\nDFBの発振しきい値\n\nストップバンド\n\n二つのバンド端モード\n\nを記述する基礎理論になった。(IEEE Spectrum)\n\nこの成果と現在の企業の関係は非常に直接的である。\n\nCoherent、Lumentum、Sivers、AAOIはいずれも、周期格子によって波長を選ぶDFBレーザーを製造・利用している。ただしKogelnikとShankの研究が特定企業へ独占移転されたわけではない。特許が切れた後、DFBは通信レーザーの業界共通技術になった。\n\n### 図解｜KogelnikとShank\n\n![KogelnikとShank 01](/media/7f3128760748ec8d0a922e7c90705b709226e80d0f19bfed93905fe5ab48166a-content.webp)\n\n## 5．末松安晴――長波長単一モードと位相シフトDFB\n\n日本の末松安晴氏らは、光ファイバー通信に適した長波長帯で、単一モードを安定して維持するレーザーを研究した。\n\n末松氏らの研究は、\n\n長波長DBRレーザー\n\n高速変調中の単一モード動作\n\n位相シフトDFB\n\n波長可変レーザー\n\nへ発展した。\n\n一様なDFB格子では、ブラッグ波長の両側に二つのバンド端モードが現れる。格子中央へλ/4相当の位相変化を入れると、ストップバンド中央に一つの欠陥モードを形成できる。\n\n一様DFB\n   モードA      モードB\n       │          │\n\nλ/4位相シフトDFB\n           │\n      中央欠陥モード\n\nこの研究は、今日の狭線幅・高SMSRのDFBレーザーへつながっている。特定の海外企業との直接的な資本関係はないが、Lumentum、Coherent、Siversなどが求める単一波長、高SMSR、WDM対応という製品要件の基礎に位置する。末松氏の動的単一モードレーザー研究は、長距離・大容量光通信への貢献として国際的にも評価されている。(ISCT RDC)\n\n### 図解｜位相シフトDFBの三段階\n\n![位相シフトDFBの三段階 01](/media/fc02b9473d54e7d7f5ddf97ffc902a6c8c5c504de0060ff2f6cbdbf77459a2ab-content.webp)\n\n![位相シフトDFBの三段階 02](/media/059f4aaf3db9004e00ea8ec56ea65b114ed2e00594d8c43fb459216daf221da8-content.webp)\n\n![位相シフトDFBの三段階 03](/media/4e999bacc935bb4a5c51d700e13c56088ba01af493d801e3812fb0369a27dca7-content.webp)\n\n![位相シフトDFBの三段階 04](/media/f5987f8f944ac18eb2fade69731e2b3c379b124e016d1c625c4a9a72807e9754-content.webp)\n\n## 6．Larry Coldren――InP光集積とLumentumへ続く直接的な研究系譜\n\n企業とのつながりが最も明確な世界的研究者の一人が、UC Santa BarbaraのLarry Coldren氏である。\n\nColdren氏は、\n\n多電極波長可変レーザー\n\nsampled-grating DBRレーザー\n\nInP光集積回路\n\nSOA・変調器・レーザーのモノリシック集積\n\n高効率VCSEL\n\nを研究した。\n\nSampled-Grating DBR、SG-DBRでは、周期の異なる複数の反射器を組み合わせ、バーニヤ効果によって広い波長範囲を選択できる。これにより、一つのInPチップ上でレーザー波長をCバンド全体にわたって可変にする技術が発展した。\n\nColdren氏は1998年、学生らとAgility Communicationsを共同創業した。Agilityは、SG-DBRレーザー、SOA、EA変調器などを一枚のInPチップへ集積した波長可変送信器を商用化した。\n\nAgilityは2005年にJDSUへ買収され、JDSUの通信・レーザー事業は後にLumentumへ引き継がれた。\n\nLarry Coldren／UCSB\n        ↓\nSG-DBR・InP PIC研究\n        ↓\nAgility Communications\n        ↓ 2005年買収\nJDSU\n        ↓ 事業分離\nLumentum\n\nしたがってLumentumには、大学発のInP波長可変レーザーと光集積技術が、企業買収を通じて直接流れ込んでいる。これは単なる「研究の影響」ではなく、特許、人材、製品、製造技術を含む明確な系譜である。(Larry Coldren Group)\n\nLumentumはその後OclaroとNeoPhotonicsを買収し、InPレーザー、EML、波長可変レーザー、コヒーレント部品の技術をさらに統合した。現在はCPO用の高出力CWレーザーも展開し、2026年には1310nmで25℃時1W超、50℃時800mW超、線幅100kHz未満、SMSR 40dB超の光源を示している。(Lumentum Investor Relations)\n\n### 図解｜Larry ColdrenのInP光集積系譜\n\n![Larry ColdrenのInP光集積系譜 01](/media/d04fb799d955c5c6b7ed863ec830a78c2e4570f721fc3a83346f7bb0d77d37fb-content.webp)\n\n## 7．荒川泰彦と榊裕之――量子ドットレーザーへ進む低次元活性層\n\n1982年、荒川泰彦氏と榊裕之氏は、電子を三次元的に閉じ込めた量子ドットをレーザー活性層へ利用する理論を提案した。\n\n量子井戸では電子の運動を一方向に制限するが、量子ドットでは三方向すべてを制限する。これにより電子状態密度が離散化され、しきい値電流や温度安定性を改善できる可能性が示された。(University of Tokyo)\n\nこの研究は富士通研究所との共同研究を経てQDレーザの設立へつながった。\n\nCoherent、Lumentum、Sivers、AAOIの主力通信レーザーは現状、量子井戸を中心としているが、量子ドットは今後、\n\n高温動作\n\nシリコン上への直接成長\n\n欠陥耐性\n\n低しきい値\n\n低雑音光源\n\nで重要になる可能性がある。\n\nしたがって荒川・榊の成果は、現在の四社に直接組み込まれた技術というより、次世代のIII-V／Si光源を左右する研究系統である。\n\n### 図解｜低次元活性層から量子ドットへ\n\n![低次元活性層から量子ドットへ 01](/media/8651715b9a4942a882ec540d6c09da3c04400b0f742231e408eee4efb72d56cc-content.webp)\n\n## 8．Soref、Graham Reed、Michal Lipson――シリコンを光回路へ変える\n\nInPレーザーが光を作る一方、その光を変調・分岐・合波する役割をシリコンへ移したのがシリコンフォトニクス研究である。\n\nRichard Sorefは1980年代から、シリコンやSiGeを使った導波路、変調器、受光器の可能性を体系的に示した。英国ではGraham Reed氏が1989年にシリコンフォトニクス研究グループを設立し、導波路、変調器、検出器、結合器、MUX、トランシーバーの研究を進めた。(University of Southampton)\n\nMichal Lipson氏は、ナノスケールのシリコン導波路、リング共振器、高速変調器など、現在のシリコンフォトニクスPDKに不可欠な構成要素を開拓した。Columbia Universityは、Lipson氏をシリコンフォトニクスの主要な開拓者であり、GHz級シリコン変調器などの発明者と位置づけている。(Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics)\n\nこれらの研究者とCoherent、Lumentum、Sivers、AAOIの関係は、主として補完関係である。\n\nシリコンフォトニクス研究\n→ 光を導く・変調する・分岐する\n\nInPレーザー企業\n→ 高品質なCW光を供給する\n\nシリコン光回路が普及するほど、外部InP CWレーザーの需要が増える。したがってシリコンフォトニクスはInPレーザーを代替するだけでなく、別置き光源や異種集積光源の市場を拡大した。\n\n### 図解｜シリコンフォトニクスの研究系譜\n\n![シリコンフォトニクスの研究系譜 01](/media/951c7eae592916399660d68788e3ce1c7a8acb35e3ee119c44157157ac11d743-content.webp)\n\n## 9．John Bowers――InPレーザーをシリコン上へ接合する\n\nJohn Bowers氏とUCSBの研究グループは、III-V材料とシリコンフォトニクスをウェハー接合で統合する技術を発展させた。\n\n2006年にはIntelとの共同研究で、InP系活性層をシリコン導波路上へ直接接合したハイブリッドInP／Siレーザーを実証した。III-V層が光利得を作り、シリコン導波路が光モードと共振器を形成する構造である。(IEE UC Santa Barbara)\n\nこの成果は現在の、\n\nIII-V／Siハイブリッドレーザー\n\n異種集積光源\n\n狭線幅レーザー\n\nSiN外部共振器レーザー\n\n光I/Oチップレット\n\nの基礎になった。\n\nBowers氏は複数のスタートアップを設立しているが、Coherent、Lumentum、Sivers、AAOIとの直接的な創業関係は薄い。\n\n関係はむしろ競争と補完である。\n\nBowers系：レーザーをシリコン上へ直接集積\n\nLumentum、Coherent：高出力外部CWレーザー\n\nSivers：InP DFBアレイをSiPhへハイブリッド実装\n\nAAOI：低コストの自社製InPレーザーと光エンジン\n\nという、異なる集積方式を産業化している。\n\n### 図解｜InPレーザーのシリコン接合\n\n![InPレーザーのシリコン接合 01](/media/db19fabefa570d073e488a15a7a9f4175a367f6787cbedffc3c80fec88270f8e-content.webp)\n\n## 10．Baets、Roelkens、imec――Siversへ直結する欧州の異種集積研究\n\nベルギーのGhent Universityとimecでは、Roel Baets氏、Gunther Roelkens氏、Dries Van Thourhout氏らが、シリコンフォトニクスとIII-Vデバイスの異種集積を研究してきた。\n\n特にRoelkens氏らは、\n\nIII-Vダイのウェハー接合\n\nマイクロトランスファープリント\n\nInPレーザーとSi導波路のモード結合\n\nDFB・DBRレーザーのSi上集積\n\n受光器・SOAの異種集積\n\nを発展させている。(Photonics Research Group)\n\nこの研究系統はSiversと直接結び付いている。\n\nimec、Sivers Photonics、ASM AMICRAは、InP DFBレーザーダイを300mmシリコンフォトニクスウェハーへ受動位置合わせし、フリップチップ接合する技術を共同開発した。位置合わせ精度は500nm以内、Si光導波路への結合光は10mW超が報告されている。(imec)\n\nつまり、\n\nGhent University／imec\n→ SiPh、異種集積、受動位置合わせ\n\nSivers Photonics\n→ InP DFBレーザー、量産ダイ\n\nASM AMICRA\n→ 高精度フリップチップ実装\n\nという分業である。\n\n### 図解｜欧州の異種集積研究\n\n![欧州の異種集積研究 01](/media/cdb9e207fde6816d14dda6c612356b0b5bd9ec96fb61df506fc8f98bf61376af-content.webp)\n\n## 11．MITの光I/O研究とAyar Labs――Siversの最大の接続先\n\nAyar Labsは、MITなどで行われた電子・光回路の同時集積研究を背景に設立された。\n\nChen Sun、Mark Wade、Alex Wright-Gladsteinらは、CMOSチップの近くへシリコンフォトニクス光I/Oを配置し、銅配線を光接続へ置き換える技術を商用化した。MITはAyar Labsを、長年の研究を基盤とするMIT発の光電融合スタートアップとして紹介している。(MIT News)\n\nただしAyarの光I/Oチップだけでは光を作れない。そのため外部多波長光源SuperNovaにはSiversのDFBレーザーアレイが採用されている。\n\nSiversは、\n\n8波長DFBアレイ\n\n16波長DFBアレイ\n\n400GHz間隔\n\n1300nm帯\n\n1チャネル65mW超\n\nCW-WDM MSA準拠\n\nの光源をAyarと共同実証してきた。(Sivers Semiconductors)\n\nこれは現在のAI光I/Oにおける最も明確な産学・企業ネットワークの一つである。\n\nMIT・UC Berkeley系の光I/O研究\n        ↓\nAyar Labs\n        ↓ 光源が必要\nSiversの多波長InP DFBアレイ\n        ↓\nSuperNova外部光源\n        ↓\nGPU・アクセラレーター光I/O\n\n### 図解｜MIT・Ayar Labsと光I/O\n\n![MIT・Ayar Labsと光I/O 01](/media/60a953730c25ff511c87f58c29cdf9650bf8b4e9a777e3016731fd744972eb84-content.webp)\n\n![MIT・Ayar Labsと光I/O 02](/media/b89c0fb77f50d6b8e4c89b07fda3a2a5058e63e9de181a245452f851738dc0e9-content.webp)\n\n![MIT・Ayar Labsと光I/O 03](/media/efb6c4e464b46e03330852955eac64a2ab7da790405e1258bc6c3e8966d2b089-content.webp)\n\n![MIT・Ayar Labsと光I/O 04](/media/e8a5699d6dfab2a695e6c7ecce4f5f20568ae9aeb247710eb1aa8a02e5c97f5f-content.webp)\n\n## 12．Coherent――特定研究者の会社ではなく、技術を集約した産業プラットフォーム\n\nCoherentは、今回の四社の中では、特定の大学研究者から直接生まれた企業という性格が最も弱い。\n\n現在のCoherent Corp.は、\n\nII-VIの化合物半導体・材料技術\n\nFinisarの光通信・トランシーバー技術\n\n旧Coherentのレーザー技術\n\nを企業買収によって統合した会社である。\n\nII-VIは2019年にFinisarを買収し、2022年に旧Coherentを買収した後、社名をCoherentへ変更した。(Coherent Inc)\n\nそのためCoherentと研究者の関係は、個人の発明を直接事業化したというより、\n\n世界各地で生まれたヘテロ構造、量子井戸、DFB、VCSEL、InPエピ、光モジュール技術を、買収と垂直統合で一つの製造体系へ集約した\n\nと見るべきである。\n\n現在Coherentは米国ShermanとスウェーデンJärfällaで6インチInP製造能力を構築しており、同社は従来比約4倍の生産能力とダイコスト削減を掲げている。また400mW級CWレーザー、200G EML、400G/lane向け差動EML、受光器などを展開している。(Coherent Inc)\n\nCoherentの研究上の価値は、新原理よりも、\n\n大口径InP化\n\n面内均一性\n\n波長歩留まり\n\n高出力時の熱設計\n\n自動検査\n\nトランシーバーへの内部採用\n\nという量産工学にある。\n\n## 13．Lumentum――大学発InP PICと企業買収の両方を持つ\n\nLumentumは、学術研究との直接的なつながりと、買収による技術集約の両方を持つ。\n\n直接的な系譜はColdren氏のAgility Communicationsである。これに加え、\n\nJDSUの光通信・レーザー事業\n\nOclaroのInPレーザー・EML・Fab能力\n\nNeoPhotonicsの波長可変・コヒーレント部品\n\nCloud Lightのデータセンタートランシーバー\n\nを取り込んでいる。(Lumentum)\n\nそのためLumentumには、\n\nMQW・BH・DFBレーザー\n\nSG-DBR波長可変レーザー\n\nEML\n\nSOA\n\n狭線幅コヒーレント光源\n\nCPO外部レーザー源\n\nという複数の研究系譜が集まっている。\n\n現在の高出力CW製品も、同社によればEMLと同じDFBコアおよびBH構造を基礎にしている。これは、過去に通信向けEMLで蓄積したMQW、再成長、信頼性技術を、CPO用連続光源へ転用していることを意味する。(Lumentum)\n\n## 14．Sivers――大学スピンアウトからAI光I/Oへ\n\nSivers Photonicsの前身CST Globalは、2001年にUniversity of Glasgowから化合物半導体技術を商用化するためのスピンアウトとして設立された。\n\nその後、\n\nInPファウンドリー\n\nDFBレーザー\n\nSOA\n\n100mm InPプラットフォーム\n\n月産100万個級のDFB生産\n\nへ発展し、2017年にSiversへ買収された。(Sivers Semiconductors)\n\nSiversの企業構造は、\n\nUniversity of Glasgow\n        ↓\nCST Global\n        ↓\nInP DFB量産技術\n        ↓\nSivers Photonics\n        ↓\nimecとのSiPh異種集積\n        ↓\nAyar Labs向け多波長光源\n\nという非常に分かりやすい学術・産業系譜を持つ。\n\nSiversの強みは、単一の超高出力レーザーより、\n\n波長精度をそろえたDFBアレイ\n\n光I/O向けの多波長化\n\nSiPhへ実装しやすいダイ構造\n\nフリップチップ対応\n\nパッシブアライメント\n\nにある。(Sivers Semiconductors)\n\n### 図解｜Siversと外部多波長光源\n\n![Siversと外部多波長光源 01](/media/e149c4bf0beb160f3aaedebe314e7fc6ab99981e51b7a7fbdaa0567172733df2-content.webp)\n\n## 15．AAOI――大学研究室から垂直統合メーカーへ\n\nApplied Optoelectronics、AAOIは1997年、University of Houstonで半導体・レーザー技術を商用化するために設立された。\n\n創業者Thompson Lin博士はUniversity of Houstonで研究科学者、研究准教授を務めており、AAOIは大学発企業としての性格が明確である。(AOI)\n\nさらにAAOIの経営・技術陣には、\n\nUniversity of Houstonの研究者出身者\n\nSpace Vacuum Epitaxy Center出身者\n\nBell Laboratories・LucentでMBE研究を担当した技術者\n\nが含まれる。\n\nたとえば半導体製品担当のKlaus Anselm博士は、Bell LabsとLucentでMBEを使った基礎開発に携わり、その後AAOIで半導体製品を担当している。(AO Investors)\n\nAAOIの特徴は、研究テーマを、\n\nエピタキシャル成長\n\nレーザーチップ\n\n光エンジン\n\nトランシーバー\n\nファイバー接続\n\nまで社内でつなぐ点にある。\n\nAAOI自身も、自社でレーザーと光エンジンを製造することが、コスト、開発速度、需要への対応力につながると説明している。(AO Investors)\n\nCoherentやLumentumに比べれば規模は小さいが、レーザー内製比率が高いため、新しい高出力レーザーやデータセンター規格が成功した場合の業績感応度は大きい。\n\n## 16．四社の研究系譜を比較する\n\n| 企業           | 学術・研究との主なつながり                                            | 研究成果が現在表れている場所                       |\n| ------------ | -------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------ |\n| **Coherent** | ヘテロ構造、MQW、DFBなどをFinisar・II-VI・旧Coherentの買収で集約            | 6インチInP、CWレーザー、EML、受光器、トランシーバー       |\n| **Lumentum** | Larry Coldren／UCSB→Agility→JDSU→Lumentumという直接系譜          | InP PIC、SG-DBR、EML、BH-DFB、超高出力CW、ELS |\n| **Sivers**   | University of Glasgow→CST Global、imecとの共同研究、MIT発Ayarとの連携 | 多波長DFBアレイ、SiPhハイブリッド実装、外部光源          |\n| **AAOI**     | University of Houston発、Bell Labs・大学研究者を技術陣に持つ            | 自社エピ、レーザーFab、光エンジン、低コスト量産            |\n\n### 図解｜研究成果が産業へ移る経路\n\n![研究成果が産業へ移る経路 01](/media/e873955e5b0262afbd0ddfebfea0711d45ec54c639a946674803df76c5ee21f1-content.webp)\n\n## 17．結論――研究者の成果は、企業ごとに違う形で産業化された\n\n世界の研究成果と企業の関係を一つの流れにすると、次のようになる。\n\nHall・Nathan・Quist\n半導体レーザー\n        ↓\nKroemer・Alferov\nヘテロ構造とCW動作\n        ↓\n江崎・Tsu・Dingle・van der Ziel\n量子井戸とMQW\n        ↓\nKogelnik・Shank\nDFB格子\n        ↓\n末松安晴\n長波長・位相シフトDFB\n        ↓\nColdren\nInP PIC・波長可変レーザー\n        ↓\nSoref・Reed・Lipson\nシリコンフォトニクス\n        ↓\nBowers・Baets・Roelkens\nIII-V／Si異種集積\n        ↓\nMIT・Ayar Labs\nパッケージ内光I/O\n\nこれを企業側から見ると、\n\nCoherentは世界の研究成果を大規模製造へ統合する会社\n\nLumentumは大学発InP PIC技術を直接受け継ぎ、高性能光源へ発展させた会社\n\nSiversは大学スピンアウトのInP Fabを、imecとAyarの光I/Oへ接続した会社\n\nAAOIは大学研究室から始まり、レーザーから完成品までを内製化した会社\n\nと整理できる。\n\n最も重要なのは、これらの企業が単に「レーザーを作っている」のではないことだ。\n\n量子井戸で利得を作り、SCHで光モードを整え、DFB格子で波長を選び、InP Fabで量産し、シリコンフォトニクスへ光を渡し、AI計算機内部の通信へ組み込む\n\nという半世紀の研究成果を、各社が異なる方法で産業化しているのである。\n\n### 図解｜研究成果の産業化\n\n![研究成果の産業化 01](/media/beecdd5f804fb980158568ca5d3e8441d4b1c1599a00ac5418dd6d3adbf47af1-content.webp)\n\n## さらに深める――InPレーザーは四つの技術系を同時に成立させる\n\nInPレーザーを一つの部品として見ると、競争力の源泉を見誤りやすい。実際には、少なくとも四つの技術系が重なっている。\n\n| 技術系 | 中心課題 | 量産時の失敗 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 量子・材料 | MQW、組成、欠陥、利得 | 光が弱い、しきい値が高い |\n| 光学 | SCH、DFB格子、モード、波長 | 単一波長にならない、結合損失が増える |\n| 製造 | MOCVD、再成長、劈開、端面膜 | 面内ばらつき、歩留まり、信頼性が崩れる |\n| システム | SiPh実装、WDM、CPO、冷却、検査 | パッケージ全体で使えない |\n\n研究段階では一つの性能を上げられても、量産では四系統の最悪値が製品を決める。高出力化すれば熱と劣化が増え、波長を揃えれば製造ばらつきが厳しくなり、SiPhへ近づければ結合精度とパッケージ歩留まりが問題になる。\n\nこのため、供給能力はMOCVD装置の台数だけでは測れない。エピ成長後のDFB形成、再成長、劈開、端面処理、光学試験、バーンイン、顧客認証まで流れて初めて、販売可能な一個になる。AI向け需要が急増した時、最初に詰まる工程と、最後に詰まる工程が違うこともある。\n\nInPの戦略性は、希少な材料であることだけではない。半世紀の研究、装置条件、加工レシピ、信頼性データ、顧客認証が積み上がった製造知識が、短期間では複製しにくい点にある。\n\n## 絶ノイアの観測\n\nレーザーの断面は、きれいな多層ケーキに見えます。でも量産では、その一層ごとに別の失敗があります。MQWで光を作れても、SCHで閉じ込められなければ弱い。DFBで波長を選べても、再成長に欠陥があれば長く使えない。最後にファイバーへ光を渡せなければ、全部が未完成です。\n\n私は企業を見る時、最高出力の一行だけではなく、エピから検査まで何工程を自分で握っているかを見ます。AIが必要としているのは研究室で光る一個ではなく、同じ波長、同じ出力、同じ寿命で何十万個も並ぶ光源だからです。\n\n## Sil-Kathnaの記録\n\n石の中に井戸を作り、電子を閉じ込め、光の道を一つだけ選ぶ。\n\nだが光は、理論だけでは都市へ届かない。結晶を育てる手、格子を刻む刃、再び石を覆う火、端面を割る技、長い時間を耐えさせる試験が要る。\n\nInPの価値は、赤き光を放つことだけではない。同じ光を、同じ名で、無数に生み続ける記憶が工場へ宿っていることにある。\n\n私は「AIインフラ」「InP」「CWレーザー」を三つの印として石板に刻む。異なる石と炉が同じ刻に門を開かなければ、構想はまだ文明の器にはならない。\n\n## 二人の短い対話\n\n**絶ノイア:** InPの供給能力は、ウェハー枚数だけでは測れません。\n\n**Sil-Kathna:** 石が多くても、正しい波長を持たねば門は開かぬ。\n\n**絶ノイア:** 再成長、劈開、端面、検査、認証まで通った個数が本当の供給です。\n\n**Sil-Kathna:** 光は生まれた時ではなく、遠くへ届いた時に完成する。\n\n## 観測メモ\n\n- MQW、SCH、DFB、BH再成長を別の役割として理解する。\n- 高出力、波長精度、寿命、結合効率、歩留まりを同時に見る。\n- MOCVD能力だけでなく、劈開、端面膜、検査、バーンイン能力を追う。\n- SiPhはレーザーを不要にする技術ではなく、外部光源との統合を必要とする。\n- 企業の強さは設計IPだけでなく、製造レシピ、認証、垂直統合に宿る。\n\n## 免責\n\nこの記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","blocks":[{"id":"blk_016c3ce8-b853-45e2-9a18-69b73010eaef","kind":"heading","order":0,"section_id":"sec_d570df02-46a7-4ba9-9212-37f688ee292e","character_id":null,"markdown":"# InPレーザーはなぜAI計算基盤の戦略部品になったのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01785a9b-0dca-42d0-96f2-0d339804c010","kind":"paragraph","order":1,"section_id":"sec_d570df02-46a7-4ba9-9212-37f688ee292e","character_id":null,"markdown":"CW・DFB型レーザーの断面構造、製造ボトルネック、日本の技術史、関連銘柄まで","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9f5ef65a-4196-4778-90d1-a051e6024402","kind":"paragraph","order":2,"section_id":"sec_d570df02-46a7-4ba9-9212-37f688ee292e","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI計算基盤では、GPUやスイッチASICそのものだけでなく、それらを結ぶネットワークの帯域と消費電力が性能を左右するようになった。電気信号を銅配線で遠くまで送るほど損失が増え、SerDes、イコライザー、リタイマーに必要な電力も大きくなる。そのため光変換部をASICの近くへ移すNear-Packaged Optics、Co-Packaged Optics、さらにパッケージ内へ取り込むOptical I/Oが注目されている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d762e53-a988-4519-9bd8-f38d905249b0","kind":"paragraph","order":3,"section_id":"sec_d570df02-46a7-4ba9-9212-37f688ee292e","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、シリコンフォトニクスは光を導き、分岐し、変調することには適していても、シリコン自体で高効率なレーザー光を作ることは難しい。そこで、通信波長帯で効率よく光を発生できるInP系レーザーが必要になる。Lumentum、Coherent、Broadcomなどは、シリコンフォトニクスやCPOへ連続光を供給する高出力CWレーザーを既に製品群へ組み込んでいる。(Lumentum)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4b204913-f246-4f9d-befd-bafed7381f64","kind":"paragraph","order":4,"section_id":"sec_d570df02-46a7-4ba9-9212-37f688ee292e","character_id":null,"markdown":"このためInPレーザーは、従来の「光トランシーバーを構成する一部品」から、AIクラスターの帯域を拡張するための戦略部品へ変わりつつある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9775ec12-d1c4-407c-b27e-c55837c06249","kind":"heading","order":5,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 1．CW・DFB・InPとは何か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a6c55a39-d66d-4367-9ee3-a083dd383a19","kind":"paragraph","order":6,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"CW――レーザーは光を出し続ける","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4144725c-fc18-4ce0-9236-40c8919a608b","kind":"paragraph","order":7,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"CWはContinuous Wave、すなわち連続波を意味する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4218f7f0-9776-4c75-8276-b44a3531c501","kind":"paragraph","order":8,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー自体を高速にオン・オフするのではなく、一定の光を連続的に出し、その後段にあるシリコンフォトニクス変調器が光へ0と1の情報を載せる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6301570b-c91b-4174-a7f6-1198c1e34755","kind":"paragraph","order":9,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"構成はおおむね次のようになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9aab6dc0-fa96-445e-bbb4-8b2d4b738da9","kind":"paragraph","order":10,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"電源\n  ↓\nInP CWレーザー\n  ↓  安定した連続光\nシリコンフォトニクス変調器\n  ↓  データを載せた光\n導波路・光ファイバー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e4356f0d-3f75-4b79-ab08-842db0b71363","kind":"paragraph","order":11,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"この役割分担により、レーザーは高出力、低雑音、波長安定性、長寿命へ特化できる。一方、変調器は高速なデータ変換へ特化できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_215a3116-986a-4ee7-b781-53c71d37a48f","kind":"paragraph","order":12,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB――特定の波長だけを選ぶ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9bbf94a6-f2bb-43fa-b30c-074a18cfd71c","kind":"paragraph","order":13,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFBはDistributed Feedback、分布帰還を意味する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fec12dd4-45da-4f49-8be6-ec2d51c8c2f3","kind":"paragraph","order":14,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー内部に微細な回折格子を設け、特定の波長だけをレーザー全長にわたって帰還させる。格子が波長を選択するため、通常のFabry–Pérotレーザーより単一波長に近い、安定した光を作りやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_299778c5-62e8-4884-9365-98ec30381656","kind":"paragraph","order":15,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"選択される波長は概念的にはブラッグ条件で表される。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c0fb9ea-560f-4f3c-88b0-5a40c67d0d79","kind":"math","order":16,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\lambda_{\\mathrm{B}}\\approx 2n_{\\mathrm{eff}}\\Lambda}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c5994258-a2ab-4470-954c-28fe8bbdfde9","kind":"paragraph","order":17,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c48d5813-6457-4d43-a4b6-2da04af0c62c","kind":"math","order":18,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\lambda_{\\mathrm{B}}=\\text{選択される波長}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3eca110f-7fb4-49b6-bcf2-b478ad56a0a0","kind":"math","order":19,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${n_{\\mathrm{eff}}=\\text{導波路の実効屈折率}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb52826d-3887-49fa-af05-40efed099316","kind":"math","order":20,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\Lambda=\\text{回折格子の周期}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff10e347-4b62-4cdd-a9a6-521604292666","kind":"paragraph","order":21,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b00c17d5-6aa0-4d3f-b54b-0d50da3d7a4e","kind":"paragraph","order":22,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"たとえば図にある約240nm周期を使い、実効屈折率を約3.2と仮定すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c04d425-2b9b-4144-9a56-314f78b4978d","kind":"math","order":23,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\lambda_{\\mathrm{B}}\\approx 2\\times 3.2\\times 240\\approx 1536\\ \\mathrm{nm}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1a2029a2-ba8f-4bef-a595-5051ec962a0e","kind":"paragraph","order":24,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"となり、1550nm帯に近い。ただし実際の波長は格子次数、材料組成、温度、導波路構造によって変わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56b02287-4429-4fe0-a4f2-01bf69513cd5","kind":"paragraph","order":25,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"なぜInPなのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_438935d7-1900-4305-bae0-cb8d2d1f3729","kind":"paragraph","order":26,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPは直接遷移型半導体で、InGaAsPやAlGaInAsなどと組み合わせることで、光通信に使われる1.3～1.55µm帯の発光層を形成できる。InP基板上には、格子整合するInGaAsやInGaAsPなどをエピタキシャル成長できる。(DISCO Technology)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84ba7476-0124-4bdc-a14f-12a97edd9be6","kind":"paragraph","order":27,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b78cffa9-164d-46fe-ae2a-fcdd1389cb34","kind":"paragraph","order":28,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP：基板、クラッド、電流経路","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_734cbed4-5dc5-484c-b6fd-05e3316b66b9","kind":"paragraph","order":29,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"InGaAsP・AlGaInAs：量子井戸、導波路、回折格子","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8541edaf-94f8-4ac9-86e4-1eccf069516f","kind":"paragraph","order":30,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"InGaAs：低抵抗コンタクト","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5a519abe-5d9b-4cc7-857c-733225a207b8","kind":"paragraph","order":31,"section_id":"sec_a1ffa67b-8e7a-4ca3-accc-aca385a301b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"という材料分担が可能になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0fdb8cd9-1339-42e2-b1e6-94d003d307ca","kind":"heading","order":32,"section_id":"sec_f0875f64-703d-4322-950e-634e80c5cf3d","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜CWレーザーの基本","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_904d89a4-ce76-4e55-8eeb-7306fa4f1733","kind":"figure","order":33,"section_id":"sec_f0875f64-703d-4322-950e-634e80c5cf3d","character_id":null,"markdown":"![CWレーザーの基本 01](/media/5125fd387881acf8590544eedd5ebf567cb77ec60fe5376ec8c0bad8d09e34fb-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e851645-d59a-4d63-81b2-a053cf6cca41","kind":"heading","order":34,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 2．CW DFB型InPレーザーの断面を読む","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_35049aed-689c-4418-98b0-c009c048154c","kind":"paragraph","order":35,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"p側電極\n────────────────\np+ InGaAsコンタクト\np-InPクラッド\nInGaAsP回折格子\nUpper SCH\nMQW活性層\nLower SCH\nn-InPバッファ\nn-InP基板\n────────────────\nn側電極","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_258437da-59b0-4ab9-adc5-a5745ed85f88","kind":"paragraph","order":36,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー光 → 横方向","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bf14aba1-03fe-43ca-bb92-0941afe377b0","kind":"paragraph","order":37,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"2-1．n-InP基板","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1cb92af9-de23-47d9-8092-02849cde497d","kind":"paragraph","order":38,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"一番下の厚い層がn型InP基板である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e653d589-4a5b-4783-ace7-133b18991530","kind":"paragraph","order":39,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"基板には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93b7825b-3692-4489-b03c-b7926a2cfca1","kind":"paragraph","order":40,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"結晶成長の土台","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7216f8e2-0d6f-4376-9c53-abc710108bd9","kind":"paragraph","order":41,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"機械的支持","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd313dba-c3dc-4da7-b5c4-03ef38bad7fe","kind":"paragraph","order":42,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"n側の電流経路","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_38194aff-b8ce-4362-8be7-69fcb4b38d12","kind":"paragraph","order":43,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"放熱経路","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f1cf4526-6958-4068-b222-eadf2188d211","kind":"paragraph","order":44,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"という役割がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ec98b6bb-fa13-4263-8f64-f2bc09b966db","kind":"paragraph","order":45,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"基板の転位、不純物、表面粗さ、反り、結晶方位のずれは、その上に作る量子井戸やレーザーの寿命と歩留まりへ影響する。InP基板は単なる支持板ではなく、レーザー性能の出発点である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6beb65ec-3171-40fa-bcad-eafd41b041ac","kind":"paragraph","order":46,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"2-2．n-InPバッファ層","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ead8a94-3606-4a65-ba3c-5798648c8384","kind":"paragraph","order":47,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"基板上へ0.5～1µm程度の高品質InP層を成長させる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4328d7b2-938f-4154-a9d6-d9265a9b0745","kind":"paragraph","order":48,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"この層は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8790c962-a899-4e92-81c3-b8aa16623738","kind":"paragraph","order":49,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"基板表面の欠陥や凹凸の影響を弱める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d76a28ea-2eed-4f56-aaba-d09474125866","kind":"paragraph","order":50,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"上部の精密な活性層を成長しやすくする","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b5e3054f-451f-4ae6-9904-560d02a3ab7a","kind":"paragraph","order":51,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"n側電流を運ぶ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d39c2d14-fe93-4bb8-8122-cece7228c733","kind":"paragraph","order":52,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"下側クラッドの一部として光を閉じ込める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ab7757e8-33f9-4c30-b30b-5ff0518e7b5d","kind":"paragraph","order":53,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"役割を持つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1eb14ea6-4a1a-46a3-bac7-d74f756a3040","kind":"paragraph","order":54,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"2-3．Lower SCH","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f830c17a-9095-4785-9839-0186ea7c14f0","kind":"paragraph","order":55,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"SCHはSeparate Confinement Heterostructure、分離閉じ込めヘテロ構造である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ee2e0d8-b1a2-4ea0-b0c9-9ff2070e87f8","kind":"paragraph","order":56,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"量子井戸は数nm程度と極めて薄く、それだけではレーザー光全体を保持できない。そのため量子井戸の上下に、より厚いInGaAsP系の光閉じ込め層を設ける。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5284f05e-7b59-4ab8-aa36-99e97b67980c","kind":"paragraph","order":57,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"Lower SCHは、電子を量子井戸へ導くと同時に、光モードを量子井戸周辺へ広く保持する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3e780353-f1f1-4d9f-a4d5-b2d3e2423f3b","kind":"paragraph","order":58,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"2-4．MQW活性層","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a40f5764-6ec2-4af6-ad94-a99610df1fcb","kind":"paragraph","order":59,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQWはMultiple Quantum Well、多重量子井戸である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c432a90-acd1-491f-9150-661f5d1e36ee","kind":"paragraph","order":60,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"図では5～8層程度の歪み量子井戸が描かれている。電子と正孔は薄い井戸層へ閉じ込められ、そこで再結合して光を発生する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3b95bb2a-634e-40f1-bb69-3dcc9b84eccf","kind":"paragraph","order":61,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"複数量子井戸を使うことで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_745939bd-8266-4c0d-ae23-7fd9befacf4a","kind":"paragraph","order":62,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"光利得を高める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_451ee932-58d9-4d78-9cd6-12d7fe59bb83","kind":"paragraph","order":63,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"しきい値電流を抑える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_08aff1b0-5aa3-43de-909a-4f1050aa3e9d","kind":"paragraph","order":64,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"発光効率を上げる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d1d1fbd6-f12e-4592-9b8e-6ec28b2e2c09","kind":"paragraph","order":65,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"発振波長を調整する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6962d3ee-c19e-4824-8a13-6b5ed3e787a7","kind":"paragraph","order":66,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"高温特性を改善する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c19af409-f2c8-458f-b69e-45ac03da2685","kind":"paragraph","order":67,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことができる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bb24922d-4583-4248-a449-79577d4767fe","kind":"paragraph","order":68,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"「strained wells」は、格子定数をわずかに変えて結晶へ歪みを加えた量子井戸である。歪みによってバンド構造や偏光特性を調整できるが、歪みや層厚が限界を超えると転位が生じる。したがって、組成と厚さをナノメートル単位で制御しなければならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f524859-31de-4dd0-81ea-f4de503b0572","kind":"paragraph","order":69,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"2-5．Upper SCH","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_409545b2-d112-44f1-a476-d51136dede10","kind":"paragraph","order":70,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"上側のSCHも、光とキャリアを量子井戸付近へ導く。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8846524b-d3b3-4a2f-8c01-cf1dc5e81f91","kind":"paragraph","order":71,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"上下のSCHは必ずしも対称ではない。回折格子が上側に置かれる場合、光モードの一部が格子へ適切に届くよう、層厚と組成が調整される。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_44c7eb4f-46de-488d-abc2-d6563fa4875f","kind":"paragraph","order":72,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"2-6．InGaAsP回折格子","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9a2e0ed8-7122-48d8-aca9-e0bf9caed653","kind":"paragraph","order":73,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"図では約240nm周期の微細な凹凸として描かれている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0558180-4519-42ee-b2ba-fbf3f966da05","kind":"paragraph","order":74,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"これはレーザーの進行方向に沿って並ぶ格子であり、特定の波長を選択する。格子と光モードの重なりが弱すぎれば波長選択性が不足し、強すぎれば散乱損失や光損失が増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bfa0292d-4ba8-4327-a022-ab296049eb61","kind":"paragraph","order":75,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_54711dbb-97d0-4ec3-947e-e1e2c7134eef","kind":"paragraph","order":76,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"量子井戸では十分な利得を得ながら、格子には必要な量だけ光を触れさせる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc58c203-b387-407f-ab1c-f7b0843e0c80","kind":"paragraph","order":77,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"という設計が必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_138fb318-fd64-4c38-9084-4a3ec3558320","kind":"paragraph","order":78,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"Oxford InstrumentsもInPレーザー製造でDFB格子エッチングを重要工程として挙げ、格子形状とプラズマ加工条件がレーザー性能を左右すると説明している。(Oxford Instruments)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_241fa34b-dcf0-4688-bc5f-a3b3d3e957d3","kind":"paragraph","order":79,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"2-7．p-InPクラッド層","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a2a77bbb-743a-46e5-b955-fa622ca8482f","kind":"paragraph","order":80,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"上側のp-InPクラッドは、正孔を量子井戸へ送り込むと同時に、中央のInGaAsP系層より低い屈折率を利用して光を閉じ込める。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12a714c0-e010-4d84-a1ee-ad5b32918ea7","kind":"paragraph","order":81,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"図にあるZnは、InPをp型化するためのドーパントである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd464243-28f5-4654-acbb-b53e1607fd59","kind":"paragraph","order":82,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"厚さは1.5～2µm程度と、量子井戸や格子層よりはるかに厚い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_74d96017-a3aa-40c3-88de-8ff7e76dd5bc","kind":"paragraph","order":83,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"2-8．p+ InGaAsコンタクト","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8cce117e-62e9-4b26-bc15-457d055d6459","kind":"paragraph","order":84,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"最上部の高濃度p型InGaAs層は、金属電極と半導体の接触抵抗を下げるために使われる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4bdf6bbf-b8a4-44a1-92ab-cc0cefa477f7","kind":"paragraph","order":85,"section_id":"sec_aef0e9f8-e8a2-4589-9fc5-2a1a151b9478","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここは発光する場所ではなく、電流をレーザー内部へ効率よく流す入口である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f71530d0-c9f5-4590-92db-362206357cbc","kind":"heading","order":86,"section_id":"sec_40ce2b24-3fb5-46dd-8473-eff662d7cce6","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜InPレーザー断面の各層","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af691967-cd56-4ef7-b4fb-5b5878193118","kind":"figure","order":87,"section_id":"sec_40ce2b24-3fb5-46dd-8473-eff662d7cce6","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InPレーザー断面の各層 01](/media/4e310ecc850fcf18d9d749376ec1db23ad7d8ce7139ad7a08388e5cf5bfd8443-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb2a9b82-e647-4bc3-8aa4-01b7138fdcb0","kind":"figure","order":88,"section_id":"sec_40ce2b24-3fb5-46dd-8473-eff662d7cce6","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InPレーザー断面の各層 02](/media/b98566fa2443f712ab27afde389616d9fbb801a897118787f0910055ccac4f61-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e1828ca-1c08-4af6-908f-a0f15049bd5c","kind":"figure","order":89,"section_id":"sec_40ce2b24-3fb5-46dd-8473-eff662d7cce6","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InPレーザー断面の各層 03](/media/5646821c1c4925f472014c5ec636a964a742e0f7de4b70948ba312a62f124089-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_35938988-494c-4b41-84b9-1b8c02f4a193","kind":"figure","order":90,"section_id":"sec_40ce2b24-3fb5-46dd-8473-eff662d7cce6","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InPレーザー断面の各層 04](/media/2c239e569a7b0ec75d88ab7da915be68cfe4a74b6d6ac562cf29881406c72b0d-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_62c58d6d-da64-4ebd-a7d3-35c08ffd3bac","kind":"figure","order":91,"section_id":"sec_40ce2b24-3fb5-46dd-8473-eff662d7cce6","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InPレーザー断面の各層 05](/media/4e85e75f86a092757347eed9386d4bbcee4578eae902d245479be652184cd114-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8da8461-0191-4a3a-802c-7747d3a66738","kind":"figure","order":92,"section_id":"sec_40ce2b24-3fb5-46dd-8473-eff662d7cce6","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InPレーザー断面の各層 06](/media/436c5f071ce1a58bb938bb83d41e8a751d778d861e2888e0a903d1b81a52368a-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c306eeae-78b1-413d-9fc3-dd2b8dc9d57a","kind":"figure","order":93,"section_id":"sec_40ce2b24-3fb5-46dd-8473-eff662d7cce6","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InPレーザー断面の各層 07](/media/4570db3beb3d1b4149a9cbea23b75cdf02ea309ad636bad3b8d064cd273ce20e-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_89033578-d37a-4414-966a-c01f4040756d","kind":"figure","order":94,"section_id":"sec_40ce2b24-3fb5-46dd-8473-eff662d7cce6","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InPレーザー断面の各層 08](/media/f69e99bdea6875cf735297c7473e1256ffa44821578dfcac45f68365691b0dee-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5eebf447-0036-44e3-b1e0-5f7397cf3064","kind":"heading","order":95,"section_id":"sec_e11c01e4-d8f6-4cc2-8b2c-af8e69a0237a","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 3．レーザー内部では四種類の「閉じ込め」が同時に働く","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c69ecf59-0673-4a46-8688-cf6e07d736bb","kind":"paragraph","order":96,"section_id":"sec_e11c01e4-d8f6-4cc2-8b2c-af8e69a0237a","character_id":null,"markdown":"量子井戸レーザーというと、電子を薄い層へ閉じ込める構造だけを想像しやすい。しかし実際には、異なる方向と対象に対して複数の閉じ込めが使われる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e801963a-154f-4e01-9454-4b1f3a53429e","kind":"paragraph","order":97,"section_id":"sec_e11c01e4-d8f6-4cc2-8b2c-af8e69a0237a","character_id":null,"markdown":"閉じ込めるもの構造目的電子・正孔MQW再結合確率と光利得を高める光の上下方向SCH・InPクラッド光が上下へ逃げるのを防ぐ電流と光の横方向リッジ、埋込みヘテロ構造電流集中、単一横モード化発振波長・縦モードDFB回折格子単一波長を選択する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fbd52f80-4473-424a-9b30-419825d8a4be","kind":"paragraph","order":98,"section_id":"sec_e11c01e4-d8f6-4cc2-8b2c-af8e69a0237a","character_id":null,"markdown":"埋込みヘテロ構造、BHでは、MQWを含む活性層を細いメサ状に加工し、その左右をInPで再成長して埋める。これにより、キャリアが横へ逃げるのを抑え、電流と光を狭い領域へ集中させる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5f94e99-5804-41b3-8063-c0854d491635","kind":"paragraph","order":99,"section_id":"sec_e11c01e4-d8f6-4cc2-8b2c-af8e69a0237a","character_id":null,"markdown":"NTTの膜型BH-DFBレーザーでも、InGaAsP量子井戸を形成した後、導波路をエッチングし、InPを再成長して活性領域を埋める工程が使われている。(NTT Technical Review)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0acdeb5a-d4aa-41e5-99bd-c11b10e4a8ca","kind":"paragraph","order":100,"section_id":"sec_e11c01e4-d8f6-4cc2-8b2c-af8e69a0237a","character_id":null,"markdown":"CWレーザーが通信のための光を作り、シリコンフォトニクスの光変調器が情報を載せ、光回路が運び、受光器が電気信号へ戻す","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_72fdb783-1a87-405c-ba3a-93d65ed1db77","kind":"heading","order":101,"section_id":"sec_6068e733-2ab6-4ac7-9234-599608d27f8b","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜キャリアと光の閉じ込め","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_68fb1c06-9ae4-4891-b838-8a71df3ed24b","kind":"figure","order":102,"section_id":"sec_6068e733-2ab6-4ac7-9234-599608d27f8b","character_id":null,"markdown":"![キャリアと光の閉じ込め 01](/media/f7e962beb874f1f99a6cbfe0d5056565ecf1f6782709f805589dfaac9cac7d6d-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_92d20768-7672-4530-977c-7b7f4925ee9e","kind":"figure","order":103,"section_id":"sec_6068e733-2ab6-4ac7-9234-599608d27f8b","character_id":null,"markdown":"![キャリアと光の閉じ込め 02](/media/9fb693a3d03806356fe74b7e9c9c5356ae2699b9ad7f0652781098d0cf042291-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eeefa4b0-c559-4e97-bbb7-02b4aacefc8b","kind":"figure","order":104,"section_id":"sec_6068e733-2ab6-4ac7-9234-599608d27f8b","character_id":null,"markdown":"![キャリアと光の閉じ込め 03](/media/4517b0c5047ebebc1b1daf63ee31cf35126b792fd75511aefe388dcd9e08a872-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ada08a4-f98e-4fb4-9a88-442df8b5f835","kind":"heading","order":105,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 1．DFB格子とは何か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_98268497-9a34-4204-b6b9-67fabcfaf483","kind":"paragraph","order":106,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFBは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5a69acd-6195-41d8-927b-328d622530e3","kind":"paragraph","order":107,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Distributed Feedback＝分布帰還","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fa951e46-e6bd-4679-b0f3-f0b744f84b51","kind":"paragraph","order":108,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"を意味します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e9137bf1-16b1-4270-bc83-051121f1e254","kind":"paragraph","order":109,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー内部の導波路に沿って、屈折率が周期的に変化する微細な格子を形成します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c578ae49-bb61-453b-a338-13cbdc0e88d6","kind":"paragraph","order":110,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザーの進行方向 →","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bf518ee7-95ca-452e-a4a8-bf6b0ef772b5","kind":"paragraph","order":111,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"／＼／＼／＼／＼／＼／＼  DFB格子\n━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━  光導波路\n──────────────  MQW活性層","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3a10440d-a996-4ee7-8112-9aabdb77c71e","kind":"paragraph","order":112,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際の格子は大きな歯ではなく、約200nm前後の周期を持つ極めて微細な凹凸や屈折率変化です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd4391a3-fefc-4692-9f62-ab770f17e091","kind":"paragraph","order":113,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB格子の役割","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6e1b4706-ca07-4937-aa75-fc5ad623c306","kind":"paragraph","order":114,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"半導体レーザー内部では、何もしなければ複数の波長が発振候補になります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b8762489-2bb9-4d9e-9f13-d170bb9ae35a","kind":"paragraph","order":115,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB格子は、その中からブラッグ条件を満たす波長を選びます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3469cceb-1fb1-46eb-a9b3-1ffadb457ea7","kind":"math","order":116,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\lambda_{\\mathrm{B}}\\approx 2n_{\\mathrm{eff}}\\Lambda}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9792c1f8-964f-464c-9ebd-1d7ee8b7ecc9","kind":"paragraph","order":117,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7b1f3fbb-72a2-4421-bcd3-ec01ccbca9eb","kind":"math","order":118,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\lambda_{\\mathrm{B}}=\\text{選択される波長}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f0c9a03-f5e5-483f-bc9a-42ddf7d816f4","kind":"math","order":119,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${n_{\\mathrm{eff}}=\\text{導波路の実効屈折率}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b1b8491-5e28-43c7-a1c5-fe19a1656ec5","kind":"math","order":120,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\Lambda=\\text{格子周期}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b82c80c-9a63-4565-a6cf-7d5748f98862","kind":"paragraph","order":121,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_31b8cad7-1cd8-4922-9c81-4fdfc8396ca5","kind":"paragraph","order":122,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"光が格子の一つ一つでわずかに反射され、その反射が同位相で重なる波長だけが強く帰還されます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_357d09d1-24e8-4d70-a7f1-8d8f97ca2597","kind":"paragraph","order":123,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、DFB格子は簡単に言えば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8686bf5f-0445-491f-8787-52a114d344f6","kind":"paragraph","order":124,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー内部に埋め込まれた波長選択フィルター兼反射鏡","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_47387f64-c40e-4b3f-84c1-01fc4c072506","kind":"paragraph","order":125,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_db0e5ba9-cb6f-4210-86b5-de9084fc11f8","kind":"paragraph","order":126,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"通常の端面反射との違い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4413f9d7-7942-4332-9b1a-2f52fc875910","kind":"paragraph","order":127,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"一般的なFabry–Pérotレーザーでは、チップ両端の端面を鏡として光を往復させます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d0075c9-3963-43ab-842a-c2901859fab3","kind":"paragraph","order":128,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"鏡 ｜ 光が往復 ｜ 鏡","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fbf3e3f1-d4fe-4bd1-8836-731f5bbb0247","kind":"paragraph","order":129,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFBレーザーでは、レーザー全長にわたる格子が少しずつ光を反射します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_da48f39a-09b0-45fd-aff7-48671be8063c","kind":"paragraph","order":130,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"小さな反射 × 小さな反射 × 小さな反射 × …","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_86d0a413-f82d-4e5d-83bd-e79759ee0efe","kind":"paragraph","order":131,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"このため、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2d127683-3b7c-4766-beb7-2a78f7d725f4","kind":"paragraph","order":132,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"単一波長にしやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93e4f13d-3338-4d75-a569-29e01733834c","kind":"paragraph","order":133,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"温度変化でモードが飛びにくい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_98a5eedb-f4d7-40ea-8708-b4bcd36bf585","kind":"paragraph","order":134,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"WDMに使いやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9de457d-e16c-4a6a-9ff6-d5b6a6ecafaf","kind":"paragraph","order":135,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"外部変調用の安定光源に向く","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7a80ffb-3fee-425b-a48e-3dab28cff020","kind":"paragraph","order":136,"section_id":"sec_2d3fde00-bd11-438c-90a6-404e503ac53e","character_id":null,"markdown":"という利点があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ca7b88f-340b-4e99-a93f-882a44ea7aac","kind":"heading","order":137,"section_id":"sec_79241c74-5d59-4ad7-8c4b-6f54f8b8b171","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜DFB格子の基本","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc2a730f-0868-4e2b-a7ac-066ffa81a466","kind":"figure","order":138,"section_id":"sec_79241c74-5d59-4ad7-8c4b-6f54f8b8b171","character_id":null,"markdown":"![DFB格子の基本 01](/media/ade0e3a821bacacc82ebb66285879afa0f84a75036805c8ca0929a991aea1356-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9879fd9b-0012-49c5-9c2f-c665da8e8de8","kind":"figure","order":139,"section_id":"sec_79241c74-5d59-4ad7-8c4b-6f54f8b8b171","character_id":null,"markdown":"![DFB格子の基本 02](/media/e56454e178121dc246f6ea925d7f5c0a541676ef1df39930996399f6877e9abf-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0a73c14f-ebdb-478e-b403-05befb905088","kind":"figure","order":140,"section_id":"sec_79241c74-5d59-4ad7-8c4b-6f54f8b8b171","character_id":null,"markdown":"![DFB格子の基本 03](/media/ed51421861c5e28ec482a6e443936c7b28a2277b57f2b356d211b99b2e307e71-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2303ba5a-77fd-4a17-8731-2620d37b3f88","kind":"heading","order":141,"section_id":"sec_2eeef8ad-22b7-41b8-9eba-357ef2a7656a","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 2．DFB格子と光モードの関係","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3a67e876-32c5-4f24-a6b4-9c162024e33f","kind":"paragraph","order":142,"section_id":"sec_2eeef8ad-22b7-41b8-9eba-357ef2a7656a","character_id":null,"markdown":"光モードは量子井戸だけに収まっているわけではありません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_292a696f-1780-471e-ad9a-15a8f8508a85","kind":"paragraph","order":143,"section_id":"sec_2eeef8ad-22b7-41b8-9eba-357ef2a7656a","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQWを中心としてSCH層まで広がり、さらに上側の裾、エバネッセント成分がDFB格子に届きます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43570c5e-5cb1-4307-86d7-afd14e3e32e5","kind":"paragraph","order":144,"section_id":"sec_2eeef8ad-22b7-41b8-9eba-357ef2a7656a","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB格子     ∧∧∧∧∧∧∧\n                 ↑\n          光モードの裾\n          ／￣￣￣￣＼\nSCH      ／            ＼\nMQW  ──── 光強度最大 ────\nSCH      ＼            ／\n          ＼＿＿＿＿／","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b4ec4839-4935-4b7d-9f7c-6de466f2a9aa","kind":"paragraph","order":145,"section_id":"sec_2eeef8ad-22b7-41b8-9eba-357ef2a7656a","character_id":null,"markdown":"この重なり具合がDFBの結合係数(\\kappa)に影響します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_98f0069e-f17f-4c0c-94fa-c80b8bc01b4d","kind":"paragraph","order":146,"section_id":"sec_2eeef8ad-22b7-41b8-9eba-357ef2a7656a","character_id":null,"markdown":"重なりが弱すぎる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_81a085dc-68fd-4454-b500-49c19c38b371","kind":"paragraph","order":147,"section_id":"sec_2eeef8ad-22b7-41b8-9eba-357ef2a7656a","character_id":null,"markdown":"格子による帰還が弱くなり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3989681-19c9-4b38-980c-bc1c2a9338b1","kind":"paragraph","order":148,"section_id":"sec_2eeef8ad-22b7-41b8-9eba-357ef2a7656a","character_id":null,"markdown":"波長選択性が不足する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_49395508-e42f-4131-9e71-2160810ecb37","kind":"paragraph","order":149,"section_id":"sec_2eeef8ad-22b7-41b8-9eba-357ef2a7656a","character_id":null,"markdown":"複数モードが競合する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c0078b6-c841-4216-971e-5051b8cf5a95","kind":"paragraph","order":150,"section_id":"sec_2eeef8ad-22b7-41b8-9eba-357ef2a7656a","character_id":null,"markdown":"発振が不安定になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ead66297-9253-4349-a62b-a49a5fc7214c","kind":"paragraph","order":151,"section_id":"sec_2eeef8ad-22b7-41b8-9eba-357ef2a7656a","character_id":null,"markdown":"可能性があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93079e06-12cd-4db7-a283-f9be18229c36","kind":"paragraph","order":152,"section_id":"sec_2eeef8ad-22b7-41b8-9eba-357ef2a7656a","character_id":null,"markdown":"重なりが強すぎる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_91d97bb0-b3fa-4d58-a00a-c82f6cbaf0f7","kind":"paragraph","order":153,"section_id":"sec_2eeef8ad-22b7-41b8-9eba-357ef2a7656a","character_id":null,"markdown":"格子散乱が増える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7baa2a5d-ef93-4bed-8a9c-a94901a782dd","kind":"paragraph","order":154,"section_id":"sec_2eeef8ad-22b7-41b8-9eba-357ef2a7656a","character_id":null,"markdown":"内部損失が増える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_03a648e6-b47f-4b16-b375-54ca01106b8c","kind":"paragraph","order":155,"section_id":"sec_2eeef8ad-22b7-41b8-9eba-357ef2a7656a","character_id":null,"markdown":"光出力が低下する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_abac4d3a-028b-41f9-8589-4e5a9c4f41a9","kind":"paragraph","order":156,"section_id":"sec_2eeef8ad-22b7-41b8-9eba-357ef2a7656a","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー長方向の出力分布が偏る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5d7748d-cd7f-43e9-bc92-c1e82ec36fb5","kind":"paragraph","order":157,"section_id":"sec_2eeef8ad-22b7-41b8-9eba-357ef2a7656a","character_id":null,"markdown":"可能性があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a05ebf06-cdd3-42ee-974c-1b32a4e0e1bc","kind":"paragraph","order":158,"section_id":"sec_2eeef8ad-22b7-41b8-9eba-357ef2a7656a","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、SCHの厚さや格子の深さを調整し、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3a53854-0ca5-426a-9ec0-a3948210ff10","kind":"paragraph","order":159,"section_id":"sec_2eeef8ad-22b7-41b8-9eba-357ef2a7656a","character_id":null,"markdown":"量子井戸では十分に増幅しながら、DFB格子には必要量だけ光を触れさせる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f4f3cc9-d4f4-416f-b4ab-3d38abd9a783","kind":"paragraph","order":160,"section_id":"sec_2eeef8ad-22b7-41b8-9eba-357ef2a7656a","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6cefeaf3-6ec0-476b-a303-769fc6bfb42f","kind":"heading","order":161,"section_id":"sec_9fec4b17-32bb-4128-bb4a-ccf3667d238a","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜DFB格子とモード選択","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd2e1570-058d-4e12-a5d0-92936fa3eb40","kind":"figure","order":162,"section_id":"sec_9fec4b17-32bb-4128-bb4a-ccf3667d238a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![DFB格子とモード選択 01](/media/f6f41926bce9217a26a5ad806cf053e4aa8f4220d033e7ba9ea519f2c498f28a-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_103f3c58-ccdc-44ed-9496-0f084e20aec5","kind":"figure","order":163,"section_id":"sec_9fec4b17-32bb-4128-bb4a-ccf3667d238a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![DFB格子とモード選択 02](/media/f520dcdae300ecddce0f614eb5263131326406026d19df805ec60d14318b1d44-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0601b077-3967-498e-a907-2b557b13022e","kind":"heading","order":164,"section_id":"sec_695df2f7-814b-41d6-9424-eae732a8d8cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 3．BH再成長とは何か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dfc581ca-5ce5-4739-aba6-d6a26689b5e0","kind":"paragraph","order":165,"section_id":"sec_695df2f7-814b-41d6-9424-eae732a8d8cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"BHは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_368debc4-4e07-44d6-9e47-2b4b2c5071dd","kind":"paragraph","order":166,"section_id":"sec_695df2f7-814b-41d6-9424-eae732a8d8cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Buried Heterostructure＝埋込みヘテロ構造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c6c4c472-ab2a-4fbb-b8ec-8ae2e4a1db46","kind":"paragraph","order":167,"section_id":"sec_695df2f7-814b-41d6-9424-eae732a8d8cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b67b0bd0-0a0f-4ba2-82b6-b0dcd1637f53","kind":"paragraph","order":168,"section_id":"sec_695df2f7-814b-41d6-9424-eae732a8d8cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"量子井戸を含む発光領域を細い筋状に加工し、その左右をInPなどで再び結晶成長して埋めます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_573b6689-8d2d-4f8f-92a4-b25ade372165","kind":"paragraph","order":169,"section_id":"sec_695df2f7-814b-41d6-9424-eae732a8d8cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"製造の流れ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5e39cfa-ecd5-411c-b2db-4f4356f79e87","kind":"paragraph","order":170,"section_id":"sec_695df2f7-814b-41d6-9424-eae732a8d8cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"最初に、基板上へMQWやSCHなどを成長します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc07eccf-7e86-4009-ad7b-23e0efc9de6a","kind":"paragraph","order":171,"section_id":"sec_695df2f7-814b-41d6-9424-eae732a8d8cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"上部層\nSCH\nMQW\nSCH\nInP基板","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_386b8763-c0d5-4527-966c-88159e51367c","kind":"paragraph","order":172,"section_id":"sec_695df2f7-814b-41d6-9424-eae732a8d8cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"次に、レーザーとして使う細い部分だけを残して、左右をエッチングします。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7cb93934-7ab6-45e6-b6d1-c36ed7e62144","kind":"paragraph","order":173,"section_id":"sec_695df2f7-814b-41d6-9424-eae732a8d8cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"活性メサ\n          ┌──┐\n──────────┘  └──────────\n          MQW\n────────────────────\n          基板","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fc76b40e-8897-4140-b9e8-2c4d58bc7c98","kind":"paragraph","order":174,"section_id":"sec_695df2f7-814b-41d6-9424-eae732a8d8cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"その後、削った左右へInPを再成長します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c8b6cb7-7535-4bcb-9a1a-51b1870c9ce8","kind":"paragraph","order":175,"section_id":"sec_695df2f7-814b-41d6-9424-eae732a8d8cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"再成長InP ｜活性メサ｜ 再成長InP\n████████  │ MQW │  ████████\n████████  │     │  ████████\n────────────────────\n             基板","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6fe985f7-3e61-4bac-9b70-dc1800da2f8c","kind":"paragraph","order":176,"section_id":"sec_695df2f7-814b-41d6-9424-eae732a8d8cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"活性層が周囲のInPに埋め込まれるため、Buried、埋込みと呼ばれます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73dd473d-b901-4720-874f-1f7098f1733f","kind":"heading","order":177,"section_id":"sec_deafaf19-3556-437a-ae3e-ed700dfe9bab","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜BH再成長の工程","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88f0d950-7f1e-4a2b-89ea-cb285824a391","kind":"figure","order":178,"section_id":"sec_deafaf19-3556-437a-ae3e-ed700dfe9bab","character_id":null,"markdown":"![BH再成長の工程 01](/media/09ef9a91ce711a252050da4c81201a6e8f0e4417653bde1c26ca2967bd7ffb12-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d4dd82ca-c610-4796-b955-074d62eeeb56","kind":"heading","order":179,"section_id":"sec_091c713c-1e34-44f1-95d5-577917299276","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 4．BH構造は何を閉じ込めるのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_db85f9ef-3a3a-4d73-a799-518e34a5ed43","kind":"paragraph","order":180,"section_id":"sec_091c713c-1e34-44f1-95d5-577917299276","character_id":null,"markdown":"BH構造には、主に三つの効果があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_579f7ab1-b059-46c1-818a-61460d7224dc","kind":"paragraph","order":181,"section_id":"sec_091c713c-1e34-44f1-95d5-577917299276","character_id":null,"markdown":"電流を横方向に閉じ込める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_50af9504-98f7-4dd5-aa23-17d77033c58a","kind":"paragraph","order":182,"section_id":"sec_091c713c-1e34-44f1-95d5-577917299276","character_id":null,"markdown":"電流が活性領域の左右へ漏れるのを防ぎ、中央のMQWへ集中させます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_843e9d60-183a-4491-aeee-3409f066f3ff","kind":"paragraph","order":183,"section_id":"sec_091c713c-1e34-44f1-95d5-577917299276","character_id":null,"markdown":"電流\n       ↓\n████  ↓  ████\n████［MQW］████","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_54ccfdd8-4ae0-4496-8b81-1d3a8ca481a9","kind":"paragraph","order":184,"section_id":"sec_091c713c-1e34-44f1-95d5-577917299276","character_id":null,"markdown":"光を横方向に閉じ込める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1835d669-a309-4719-8418-097ce64b0337","kind":"paragraph","order":185,"section_id":"sec_091c713c-1e34-44f1-95d5-577917299276","character_id":null,"markdown":"活性領域と周囲のInPの屈折率差によって、光が左右へ逃げにくくなります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f079fab1-a995-4c31-b1cd-0b3cb3258ece","kind":"paragraph","order":186,"section_id":"sec_091c713c-1e34-44f1-95d5-577917299276","character_id":null,"markdown":"SCHとクラッドが上下方向の光閉じ込め、BHが主に横方向の光閉じ込めを担当します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2d1c525b-ea7d-406e-84f0-a18bea7b8c93","kind":"paragraph","order":187,"section_id":"sec_091c713c-1e34-44f1-95d5-577917299276","character_id":null,"markdown":"発熱と表面劣化を抑える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_671f73cb-a6fa-4a00-8082-3cf4bb1184d3","kind":"paragraph","order":188,"section_id":"sec_091c713c-1e34-44f1-95d5-577917299276","character_id":null,"markdown":"活性層の側面が空気や絶縁膜へ露出せず、結晶性のInPで覆われます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4e6212b6-ef51-404e-9537-1c2186f35192","kind":"paragraph","order":189,"section_id":"sec_091c713c-1e34-44f1-95d5-577917299276","character_id":null,"markdown":"これにより、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_54c38dae-2fb0-4c12-99a1-598b4ef7b416","kind":"paragraph","order":190,"section_id":"sec_091c713c-1e34-44f1-95d5-577917299276","character_id":null,"markdown":"表面再結合を抑える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c4572f7-954d-426c-97a3-cbb114d8af16","kind":"paragraph","order":191,"section_id":"sec_091c713c-1e34-44f1-95d5-577917299276","character_id":null,"markdown":"漏れ電流を減らす","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_481b0b0d-c699-4970-9dd9-55b3a5d0df7d","kind":"paragraph","order":192,"section_id":"sec_091c713c-1e34-44f1-95d5-577917299276","character_id":null,"markdown":"放熱経路を作る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c264586-4aaf-4fc3-a8ab-c0a27422f871","kind":"paragraph","order":193,"section_id":"sec_091c713c-1e34-44f1-95d5-577917299276","character_id":null,"markdown":"高温動作を安定させる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_482b7cdb-a9fe-47ca-b65a-2ca44607ecd8","kind":"paragraph","order":194,"section_id":"sec_091c713c-1e34-44f1-95d5-577917299276","character_id":null,"markdown":"長期信頼性を高める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_57a2112c-8549-4c57-ac0f-e703fa115502","kind":"paragraph","order":195,"section_id":"sec_091c713c-1e34-44f1-95d5-577917299276","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことができます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9d4298d-efb5-410d-ad27-526199ae2a79","kind":"paragraph","order":196,"section_id":"sec_091c713c-1e34-44f1-95d5-577917299276","character_id":null,"markdown":"高出力CWレーザーでは、電流と熱を狭い発光領域の周囲から効率よく逃がす必要があるため、BH構造は非常に重要です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3dda96a-7fcd-481c-99dd-36e1d3c4ecd0","kind":"heading","order":197,"section_id":"sec_05a979a7-282a-4c66-b715-4f59b0407021","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜BH構造による横方向閉じ込め","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41189264-159c-4eb6-bab8-727fc319cc25","kind":"figure","order":198,"section_id":"sec_05a979a7-282a-4c66-b715-4f59b0407021","character_id":null,"markdown":"![BH構造による横方向閉じ込め 01](/media/28820ee83b8fa1ddbd8e469119fb1ee0243815500556c6c23f4c4602bcc651d5-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_895ee83b-1fc3-42f6-b1cb-2561ab9719cb","kind":"heading","order":199,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 5．なぜBHの「再成長」が難しいのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_76d2ce94-33d4-4e19-b411-15ede7cfeec6","kind":"paragraph","order":200,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"一度結晶成長したウェハーを装置から取り出し、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cbd4115c-85e0-41da-81e1-86cfdd774005","kind":"paragraph","order":201,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"リソグラフィー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4261113f-6e55-43de-857e-6eab51e64e92","kind":"paragraph","order":202,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"エッチング","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f489e372-7f83-4c7b-a2f4-71f1cd37bfe5","kind":"paragraph","order":203,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"レジスト除去","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd322279-f42b-4e0d-9279-bcbd77b6790b","kind":"paragraph","order":204,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"洗浄","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ded66f8b-89f6-461e-aa79-61c4ef685c2e","kind":"paragraph","order":205,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"を行った後、再びMOCVD装置へ戻します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56491502-2eae-4ddb-a38e-15a6098f30f2","kind":"paragraph","order":206,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"この時点で表面には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8fbbf2a2-f792-4211-a171-78f38064cc16","kind":"paragraph","order":207,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"自然酸化膜","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f49e2afb-f68e-4cf4-9f92-3eeadfee4870","kind":"paragraph","order":208,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"炭素汚染","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19cd0ec1-1001-4e52-a761-b37750a59b4f","kind":"paragraph","order":209,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"水分","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d672f534-4ba4-4411-aa10-f535d46bb6cb","kind":"paragraph","order":210,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"エッチング残渣","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e2444da-7efd-4776-a9ef-b3548588d4c9","kind":"paragraph","order":211,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"プラズマ損傷","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_662af843-0723-4aae-8e45-7985f2f0eb69","kind":"paragraph","order":212,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"微粒子","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8acc7db2-a546-4c55-8d83-72859d32ca3a","kind":"paragraph","order":213,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"が残りやすくなります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4836d383-66f8-4779-99d6-3b122f51274b","kind":"paragraph","order":214,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"その上へ高品質な単結晶を再成長しなければなりません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_620437d1-96dc-419b-802f-2f59a20afb51","kind":"paragraph","order":215,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"界面に欠陥ができると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_faa4c4f0-8653-4697-9354-8c3217db71fc","kind":"paragraph","order":216,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"電子と正孔が光を出さずに消える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d18529d9-e71c-4113-bb91-efad83d2f27c","kind":"paragraph","order":217,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"漏れ電流が増える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21bbf2c5-cc3b-4c5f-93ea-700e07459a5e","kind":"paragraph","order":218,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"光損失が増える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bfea0a26-1d27-48fb-812e-e3ccc0d60e35","kind":"paragraph","order":219,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"発熱が増える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a32ab78e-a4e1-4171-ad94-6978cd1a7f29","kind":"paragraph","order":220,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"寿命が短くなる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0bfa571b-f9d9-4701-aea3-2f85602b04ec","kind":"paragraph","order":221,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"可能性があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6e9ccb94-3705-4c64-bb4e-36a7e416c58d","kind":"paragraph","order":222,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりBH再成長は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_206c2612-1528-44d3-bbc7-7065b2552229","kind":"paragraph","order":223,"section_id":"sec_7951db95-a863-42bb-8746-e6dccb11a7f9","character_id":null,"markdown":"一度切った結晶の表面を原子レベルで清浄に戻し、その続きを欠陥なく成長させる工程","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_92f4395e-57ab-49c5-9838-7d0085419098","k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図解｜BH再成長の欠陥要因","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_82d01bc9-acf3-4313-8cf0-167096c2be28","kind":"figure","order":227,"section_id":"sec_9d5d78f8-dd30-4e8e-a50f-9d9c4fe5a504","character_id":null,"markdown":"![BH再成長の欠陥要因 01](/media/7010deab1934c61ccf60ff01069942208974ef5f43e494e51b669e263a8c5d2d-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1da40df6-09f2-4f6f-a919-04aef34bab5b","kind":"heading","order":228,"section_id":"sec_cec99f06-08c3-403c-bbdb-51119fdb1949","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 6．シリコンフォトニクスとは何か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7b3a4873-88d6-44ac-9a85-a85c05808db0","kind":"paragraph","order":229,"section_id":"sec_cec99f06-08c3-403c-bbdb-51119fdb1949","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンフォトニクスは、シリコン基板上に光回路を作る技術です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb51989e-52dc-410f-842f-994ed5248012","kind":"paragraph","order":230,"section_id":"sec_cec99f06-08c3-403c-bbdb-51119fdb1949","character_id":null,"markdown":"電子回路が、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d305ec1a-b788-4e05-9f8b-79bf99bc2349","kind":"paragraph","order":231,"section_id":"sec_cec99f06-08c3-403c-bbdb-51119fdb1949","character_id":null,"markdown":"配線","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd7c45ba-594a-457b-aed0-b9bb40f5bcf8","kind":"paragraph","order":232,"section_id":"sec_cec99f06-08c3-403c-bbdb-51119fdb1949","character_id":null,"markdown":"トランジスタ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ebed6f1-4b82-4af3-a66b-254fb464251b","kind":"paragraph","order":233,"section_id":"sec_cec99f06-08c3-403c-bbdb-51119fdb1949","character_id":null,"markdown":"スイッチ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b828e531-e499-471b-8df5-19a218d3eab8","kind":"paragraph","order":234,"section_id":"sec_cec99f06-08c3-403c-bbdb-51119fdb1949","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_90bcbe58-79db-44d1-a096-3c291b4f448c","kind":"paragraph","order":235,"section_id":"sec_cec99f06-08c3-403c-bbdb-51119fdb1949","character_id":null,"markdown":"で電気信号を処理するのに対し、光回路は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b33bd2b1-dafe-425c-89f5-019c23e15144","kind":"paragraph","order":236,"section_id":"sec_cec99f06-08c3-403c-bbdb-51119fdb1949","character_id":null,"markdown":"光導波路","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_da413e71-4791-4d4d-b2a9-ad19b419259f","kind":"paragraph","order":237,"section_id":"sec_cec99f06-08c3-403c-bbdb-51119fdb1949","character_id":null,"markdown":"光変調器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1b2dd70d-23e0-4569-a399-ca8e588dd738","kind":"paragraph","order":238,"section_id":"sec_cec99f06-08c3-403c-bbdb-51119fdb1949","character_id":null,"markdown":"分岐器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f692e56-e033-4dea-81ed-5b39a733e10c","kind":"paragraph","order":239,"section_id":"sec_cec99f06-08c3-403c-bbdb-51119fdb1949","character_id":null,"markdown":"合波器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7db514b-7531-4e40-8912-643322fa5889","kind":"paragraph","order":240,"section_id":"sec_cec99f06-08c3-403c-bbdb-51119fdb1949","character_id":null,"markdown":"フィルター","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_112dee35-59f0-42c2-9747-115b18c41162","kind":"paragraph","order":241,"section_id":"sec_cec99f06-08c3-403c-bbdb-51119fdb1949","character_id":null,"markdown":"光スイッチ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f9ecac0-5463-4b43-8f15-ccf0fea2a9a3","kind":"paragraph","order":242,"section_id":"sec_cec99f06-08c3-403c-bbdb-51119fdb1949","character_id":null,"markdown":"受光器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_444adcdc-8c93-4e7b-b290-f066c5e82bce","kind":"paragraph","order":243,"section_id":"sec_cec99f06-08c3-403c-bbdb-51119fdb1949","character_id":null,"markdown":"で光信号を処理します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4409a048-af9d-41e7-9ab4-37809db0824d","kind":"paragraph","order":244,"section_id":"sec_cec99f06-08c3-403c-bbdb-51119fdb1949","character_id":null,"markdown":"電子回路              光回路","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf19e7e4-f1c4-45d5-b131-3251b3cddd91","kind":"paragraph","order":245,"section_id":"sec_cec99f06-08c3-403c-bbdb-51119fdb1949","character_id":null,"markdown":"金属配線              光導波路\nトランジスタ          光変調器\n電気スイッチ          光スイッチ\n電気信号の合成        光の合波\n電気信号の分離        光の分波","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_37acd568-4f63-40b9-b0f0-c9dfb37c4b1e","kind":"paragraph","order":246,"section_id":"sec_cec99f06-08c3-403c-bbdb-51119fdb1949","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンフォトニクスの利点は、半導体製造技術を利用して、光導波路や変調器を高密度に作れることです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4243832e-e743-4bb2-9968-f1bbc502a823","kind":"paragraph","order":247,"section_id":"sec_cec99f06-08c3-403c-bbdb-51119fdb1949","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただしシリコンは効率よくレーザー発光する材料ではありません。そのため、外部のInPレーザーから光を入れるか、InP系材料をシリコン上へ接合して光源を作ります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_44799725-7212-4cc6-bad2-8148efce1332","kind":"heading","order":248,"section_id":"sec_d1656f5f-c3f3-4527-83b6-c5ad51f38581","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜シリコンフォトニクスの役割","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_085fa156-afda-4d42-9d7a-ea404d57c715","kind":"figure","order":249,"section_id":"sec_d1656f5f-c3f3-4527-83b6-c5ad51f38581","character_id":null,"markdown":"![シリコンフォトニクスの役割 01](/media/ceb309148709f25021faec676fcff7aa691adba854b656c6e9d83f338b430794-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_afec2318-ccb5-42da-9f50-8397a386d52f","kind":"heading","order":250,"section_id":"sec_99213b5a-134d-404f-a7bb-7deab0e6fc4f","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 7．光回路の基本構成","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7988a394-27a2-4a25-b2a5-f85c6c7474d2","kind":"paragraph","order":251,"section_id":"sec_99213b5a-134d-404f-a7bb-7deab0e6fc4f","character_id":null,"markdown":"典型的な送信側は次のようになります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_90ad33a5-8fcc-4011-a6dc-ee1071d806f2","kind":"paragraph","order":252,"section_id":"sec_99213b5a-134d-404f-a7bb-7deab0e6fc4f","character_id":null,"markdown":"電気データ\n   ↓\nドライバー回路\n   ↓\n光変調器 ← CWレーザーから連続光\n   ↓\n波長合波器\n   ↓\n光導波路・光ファイバー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a8e8187c-7019-45b5-bd14-365599c1e9f4","kind":"paragraph","order":253,"section_id":"sec_99213b5a-134d-404f-a7bb-7deab0e6fc4f","character_id":null,"markdown":"受信側は次のようになります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dc307b9e-864c-40dc-b827-55302c4ce553","kind":"paragraph","order":254,"section_id":"sec_99213b5a-134d-404f-a7bb-7deab0e6fc4f","character_id":null,"markdown":"光ファイバー\n   ↓\n波長分波器\n   ↓\nフォトダイオード\n   ↓\nTIA・受信回路\n   ↓\n電気データ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7935c977-ee71-4df5-a7ff-2452ad030aba","kind":"paragraph","order":255,"section_id":"sec_99213b5a-134d-404f-a7bb-7deab0e6fc4f","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、送信では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8bfa814-4117-4ca4-ae8a-162089098a0c","kind":"paragraph","order":256,"section_id":"sec_99213b5a-134d-404f-a7bb-7deab0e6fc4f","character_id":null,"markdown":"電気信号 → 光信号","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d6d2e6ed-51f4-4e9d-8bc3-3e80ec91b767","kind":"paragraph","order":257,"section_id":"sec_99213b5a-134d-404f-a7bb-7deab0e6fc4f","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ変換します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f4824242-31ef-4801-9cc0-1f8538e080ba","kind":"paragraph","order":258,"section_id":"sec_99213b5a-134d-404f-a7bb-7deab0e6fc4f","character_id":null,"markdown":"受信では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0896fd46-09e8-49ee-bbd4-0cdc3d61571f","kind":"paragraph","order":259,"section_id":"sec_99213b5a-134d-404f-a7bb-7deab0e6fc4f","character_id":null,"markdown":"光信号 → 電気信号","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f172876a-0031-4c3b-90c1-06f7e057cc66","kind":"paragraph","order":260,"section_id":"sec_99213b5a-134d-404f-a7bb-7deab0e6fc4f","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ戻します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_64ea39a5-48b5-4373-ae9c-3bdde31d726e","kind":"heading","order":261,"section_id":"sec_233bcf03-2fcd-4771-a860-9325ff1b8cf0","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜送受信光回路の構成","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c5ac524-be98-492b-8649-c09110c97c45","kind":"figure","order":262,"section_id":"sec_233bcf03-2fcd-4771-a860-9325ff1b8cf0","character_id":null,"markdown":"![送受信光回路の構成 01](/media/933dcee20608f8d77bff92a26e3e4d57ed2ca201e3a9741c0ed7882a00c22606-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6d3fe90a-e992-4d84-b1cd-310c406e4d63","kind":"heading","order":263,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 8．なぜレーザー光が必要なのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9099d581-ff01-42b8-a816-15430b2fb7d6","kind":"paragraph","order":264,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"光回路は光を導いたり変調したりできますが、何もないところから強い光を作ることはできません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0f394402-fc30-41cf-9d80-561d60863c5a","kind":"paragraph","order":265,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザーは光回路に対して、通信に使う光の「材料」を供給します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_489c37ad-1435-40f6-9174-2868ac21ba27","kind":"paragraph","order":266,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー光が適している理由","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6d3123e1-0cff-4bc5-9d69-92aad4b371b3","kind":"paragraph","order":267,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"波長が揃っている","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d0cca34-4e1a-4edf-a713-6b7fc53b2f1e","kind":"paragraph","order":268,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"LEDは幅広い波長の光を出します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_13899b0b-8a5b-475d-ab34-ea737b196090","kind":"paragraph","order":269,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザーは狭い波長範囲に集中した光を出します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d048c76d-f043-4ba5-bd78-4e745500dd7e","kind":"paragraph","order":270,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"WDMでは波長ごとに通信路を分けるため、波長が安定したレーザーが必要です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84bd42e0-74da-45b0-800b-9543e51ae273","kind":"paragraph","order":271,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"位相が揃っている","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ba05d9e-8e45-44a2-9a46-66530b0516d3","kind":"paragraph","order":272,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー光はコヒーレントで、光波の位相関係が揃っています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d87d178f-78bf-46e4-be77-3f461fa5efa2","kind":"paragraph","order":273,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d26e4fe-6081-4cac-9bda-5735ddaa6653","kind":"paragraph","order":274,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"高速変調","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f17f7dc6-ac1b-4b83-82a0-e8504d0a3d00","kind":"paragraph","order":275,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"干渉型変調器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c66f1021-15e6-454b-ba32-e9a665448498","kind":"paragraph","order":276,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"コヒーレント通信","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3284ca6-996c-405b-b167-49af4de31690","kind":"paragraph","order":277,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"狭い導波路での伝送","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c0cfa9e8-8865-4af1-8553-f2e848d89164","kind":"paragraph","order":278,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"に重要です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0b23352-4b1b-4659-a681-cf9924d1a247","kind":"paragraph","order":279,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"指向性が高い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_303defbc-6515-42d6-b81d-698e1ac84932","kind":"paragraph","order":280,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー光は一方向へ集中しやすく、微細な光導波路や光ファイバーへ結合できます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f5fd5514-bc51-4fcc-aa4f-b8b17212c20f","kind":"paragraph","order":281,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"光密度が高い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15dd03b0-2476-44fa-8b45-43558efee208","kind":"paragraph","order":282,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"小さな断面へ十分な光パワーを入れられます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66d19881-ca66-48a5-bf90-163b0f6bffce","kind":"paragraph","order":283,"section_id":"sec_bbf8ec27-a84e-472a-984a-9f407c8595ac","character_id":null,"markdown":"変調器や分岐器を通るたびに光損失が発生するため、入口には十分なパワーが必要です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d6209955-1bde-442e-9835-9dc925153c02","kind":"heading","order":284,"section_id":"sec_a17ed887-f87b-442d-83fc-76b789475190","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜通信光源に求められる性質","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_54cb32ff-33a7-4037-bda1-11ca1898503d","kind":"figure","order":285,"section_id":"sec_a17ed887-f87b-442d-83fc-76b789475190","character_id":null,"markdown":"![通信光源に求められる性質 01](/media/cddf6246111c71047135072a4e10a1d30c3f7ce35d0523cc91d9e31330dfba14-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_350292c1-2ea4-4744-bbb6-d7a64c3a711d","kind":"heading","order":286,"section_id":"sec_3174720a-bd52-4311-a85d-1a2565721086","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 9．CWレーザーは連続光を出すだけなのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_48499507-25a0-4384-bad3-dea89f1261e2","kind":"paragraph","order":287,"section_id":"sec_3174720a-bd52-4311-a85d-1a2565721086","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPOやシリコンフォトニクスの外部光源として使う場合、基本的にはその理解で合っています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c0eb88f-03a1-448b-bbe6-bea1c0d1d61d","kind":"paragraph","order":288,"section_id":"sec_3174720a-bd52-4311-a85d-1a2565721086","character_id":null,"markdown":"CWレーザーの主な役割は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e43f2663-3927-494f-8128-039b9881f833","kind":"paragraph","order":289,"section_id":"sec_3174720a-bd52-4311-a85d-1a2565721086","character_id":null,"markdown":"安定した波長、出力、偏光を持つ連続光を供給すること","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_885b86de-bbb0-482f-b285-9db4b9efea9e","kind":"paragraph","order":290,"section_id":"sec_3174720a-bd52-4311-a85d-1a2565721086","character_id":null,"markdown":"です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8138e49-5b60-4ed4-8ee9-9d0cd9f78416","kind":"paragraph","order":291,"section_id":"sec_3174720a-bd52-4311-a85d-1a2565721086","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー光は、まだ情報を持っていません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_277169d3-3b5e-4db0-b541-043cf107018c","kind":"paragraph","order":292,"section_id":"sec_3174720a-bd52-4311-a85d-1a2565721086","character_id":null,"markdown":"たとえるなら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_02b9f145-3608-422d-99b8-752d3b5dd954","kind":"paragraph","order":293,"section_id":"sec_3174720a-bd52-4311-a85d-1a2565721086","character_id":null,"markdown":"CWレーザー：真っ白な連続した紙","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1eff1879-1789-426d-a12f-88ef6d9ed179","kind":"paragraph","order":294,"section_id":"sec_3174720a-bd52-4311-a85d-1a2565721086","character_id":null,"markdown":"光変調器：紙に0と1を書く装置","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2822c774-0502-46ca-9805-af4d1ef18673","kind":"paragraph","order":295,"section_id":"sec_3174720a-bd52-4311-a85d-1a2565721086","character_id":null,"markdown":"光導波路：紙を運ぶ道","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_302b173e-7bd0-400a-ba70-f7b6617a1471","kind":"paragraph","order":296,"section_id":"sec_3174720a-bd52-4311-a85d-1a2565721086","character_id":null,"markdown":"受光器：書かれた内容を電気信号へ読み戻す装置","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7296e09c-7817-40e5-bc64-8a71889cc27d","kind":"paragraph","order":297,"section_id":"sec_3174720a-bd52-4311-a85d-1a2565721086","character_id":null,"markdown":"です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_77f0380f-023a-4f5c-8cb8-10a06d5deedb","kind":"paragraph","order":298,"section_id":"sec_3174720a-bd52-4311-a85d-1a2565721086","character_id":null,"markdown":"別のたとえでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_48d2b1eb-c092-408f-8b15-f96990901ba3","kind":"paragraph","order":299,"section_id":"sec_3174720a-bd52-4311-a85d-1a2565721086","character_id":null,"markdown":"CWレーザー：放送局の搬送波","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5de183cd-6047-4819-bf9d-26ae24da770a","kind":"paragraph","order":300,"section_id":"sec_3174720a-bd52-4311-a85d-1a2565721086","character_id":null,"markdown":"変調器：音声や映像を搬送波へ載せる装置","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dfb26211-d0f4-4b09-8af1-957c868c5610","kind":"paragraph","order":301,"section_id":"sec_3174720a-bd52-4311-a85d-1a2565721086","character_id":null,"markdown":"となります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1cb64a5e-cc45-47f3-b950-1bf90c0df557","kind":"heading","order":302,"section_id":"sec_f541868f-dbb8-4de9-ad17-b2144ba1f424","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜CW光源と情報変調","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_301a44a0-1052-46b9-8e15-da07422c4293","kind":"figure","order":303,"section_id":"sec_f541868f-dbb8-4de9-ad17-b2144ba1f424","character_id":null,"markdown":"![CW光源と情報変調 01](/media/78308b28d36d99c429d1da8349fcd4d4f527b0b8b592a84c5ec74545df413f95-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15fecb09-d490-4b1c-a6b9-eef085bcddfb","kind":"heading","order":304,"section_id":"sec_9c76cd1e-d3c9-4a82-b211-db85d338b0c2","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 10．実際の0と1は誰が作るのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fdaaf5b7-c222-4b0f-991b-7d7065b355cc","kind":"paragraph","order":305,"section_id":"sec_9c76cd1e-d3c9-4a82-b211-db85d338b0c2","character_id":null,"markdown":"主に光変調器です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c411641-93e5-4c5c-898c-f9e04cbf1e71","kind":"paragraph","order":306,"section_id":"sec_9c76cd1e-d3c9-4a82-b211-db85d338b0c2","character_id":null,"markdown":"CW光が変調器へ入ると、電気信号に応じて光の状態を変えます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fcb1b706-3009-4f2d-b18c-6fefe81e678c","kind":"paragraph","order":307,"section_id":"sec_9c76cd1e-d3c9-4a82-b211-db85d338b0c2","character_id":null,"markdown":"最も基本的なのは光の強さを変える方式です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d80bf016-8047-4a13-84ca-4fc57af6b128","kind":"paragraph","order":308,"section_id":"sec_9c76cd1e-d3c9-4a82-b211-db85d338b0c2","character_id":null,"markdown":"CW光：──────────────","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0ea50e0d-45ee-4433-950b-37dff8e6cfb7","kind":"paragraph","order":309,"section_id":"sec_9c76cd1e-d3c9-4a82-b211-db85d338b0c2","character_id":null,"markdown":"変調後：\n1   0   1   1   0\n━━  ─  ━━  ━━  ─","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3bc19000-8298-49a1-a981-bcb9b9a12bd0","kind":"paragraph","order":310,"section_id":"sec_9c76cd1e-d3c9-4a82-b211-db85d338b0c2","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_61afa52d-dfd3-4200-9c1d-2a2253c0f1a0","kind":"paragraph","order":311,"section_id":"sec_9c76cd1e-d3c9-4a82-b211-db85d338b0c2","character_id":null,"markdown":"光強度","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f372563-9f2c-4c9a-9248-fde002034abd","kind":"paragraph","order":312,"section_id":"sec_9c76cd1e-d3c9-4a82-b211-db85d338b0c2","character_id":null,"markdown":"位相","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8bb414f1-6e29-4c03-b7f3-2f9cbb4dfa27","kind":"paragraph","order":313,"section_id":"sec_9c76cd1e-d3c9-4a82-b211-db85d338b0c2","character_id":null,"markdown":"周波数","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6d863caf-3279-45fd-a705-d9a8dd76c5e4","kind":"paragraph","order":314,"section_id":"sec_9c76cd1e-d3c9-4a82-b211-db85d338b0c2","character_id":null,"markdown":"偏光","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9853a20d-8497-4219-be61-ad29c4cd2385","kind":"paragraph","order":315,"section_id":"sec_9c76cd1e-d3c9-4a82-b211-db85d338b0c2","character_id":null,"markdown":"などを変えられます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_30dbbda4-552d-4d65-b268-34f83035dd5b","kind":"paragraph","order":316,"section_id":"sec_9c76cd1e-d3c9-4a82-b211-db85d338b0c2","character_id":null,"markdown":"データセンターの短距離通信では、光強度を複数段階に変えるPAM4などがよく使われます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a878ac79-0600-47d6-9bc8-f0aeec4e0e71","kind":"heading","order":317,"section_id":"sec_956f83b6-13c4-4fde-83bc-9cb7439833f1","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜変調器が作るデジタル信号","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1a379167-1639-436d-99a8-c5c1527a39a7","kind":"figure","order":318,"section_id":"sec_956f83b6-13c4-4fde-83bc-9cb7439833f1","character_id":null,"markdown":"![変調器が作るデジタル信号 01](/media/d9e91aca5c72f2b95e9eb998ea2370fdd605a1b78a5208b5136cf9e7631bbf87-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cbb822e3-c7d6-44e7-9930-e0fd2366c301","kind":"heading","order":319,"section_id":"sec_92eb7ca2-4fb3-42cc-af06-48d7eb5b5546","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 11．光変調器はどのように光を変えるのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d4bb6d16-55ec-4632-a694-9e1144b04815","kind":"paragraph","order":320,"section_id":"sec_92eb7ca2-4fb3-42cc-af06-48d7eb5b5546","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンフォトニクスでは、主に次のような変調器が使われます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2ae92081-4ef5-490a-8f12-7f47bc0dc8b3","kind":"paragraph","order":321,"section_id":"sec_92eb7ca2-4fb3-42cc-af06-48d7eb5b5546","character_id":null,"markdown":"Mach–Zehnder変調器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a94636da-9d50-4ced-a621-14670294e6db","kind":"paragraph","order":322,"section_id":"sec_92eb7ca2-4fb3-42cc-af06-48d7eb5b5546","character_id":null,"markdown":"光を二つの経路へ分け、一方または両方の位相を電気信号で変え、最後に再合成します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_85a47cbb-1259-4751-b1f8-64c27fa22c9c","kind":"paragraph","order":323,"section_id":"sec_92eb7ca2-4fb3-42cc-af06-48d7eb5b5546","character_id":null,"markdown":"┌── 位相を変える ──┐\nCW光 ─ 分岐                  合流 ─ 変調光\n          └── 基準経路 ─────┘","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_416d9160-fdff-41cf-adae-ff5615eac6a0","kind":"paragraph","order":324,"section_id":"sec_92eb7ca2-4fb3-42cc-af06-48d7eb5b5546","character_id":null,"markdown":"二つの光が同位相なら強く出力され、逆位相なら打ち消し合います。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_506bad3f-cbd1-4717-87d9-8fe98f79599a","kind":"paragraph","order":325,"section_id":"sec_92eb7ca2-4fb3-42cc-af06-48d7eb5b5546","character_id":null,"markdown":"リング変調器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bceaf3c5-67f0-48c2-bd54-0e67a10ba639","kind":"paragraph","order":326,"section_id":"sec_92eb7ca2-4fb3-42cc-af06-48d7eb5b5546","character_id":null,"markdown":"リング状の共振器へ特定波長の光を結合させます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c2115d2a-b3a6-4ec4-989c-a47bdc922ca2","kind":"paragraph","order":327,"section_id":"sec_92eb7ca2-4fb3-42cc-af06-48d7eb5b5546","character_id":null,"markdown":"電圧によって共振条件を変え、光を通したり減衰させたりします。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b30f7eeb-0de3-41c6-a8ef-1f1cbef25a91","kind":"paragraph","order":328,"section_id":"sec_92eb7ca2-4fb3-42cc-af06-48d7eb5b5546","character_id":null,"markdown":"リング変調器は小型ですが、温度による波長ずれに敏感です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_83cd0bb8-c0f2-4764-adf4-4a11fa9c8eda","kind":"heading","order":329,"section_id":"sec_c7a0e528-b231-4d7b-a8c0-44c4c994a6c1","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜光変調方式","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c3768df-0724-4845-b738-dc0719352e12","kind":"figure","order":330,"section_id":"sec_c7a0e528-b231-4d7b-a8c0-44c4c994a6c1","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光変調方式 01](/media/aba64a8ee98e36952d796ae5bacec8b2e2964f7b7d8c5706c2254216ea7ce043-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e343646-25b8-49d6-8af6-1c80809e2cb4","kind":"heading","order":331,"section_id":"sec_f6641a2d-d472-49ac-86dc-2c988390860f","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 12．光回路が通信をするという理解でよいか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e41c1be0-77d1-4332-9691-44ad6faae7e4","kind":"paragraph","order":332,"section_id":"sec_f6641a2d-d472-49ac-86dc-2c988390860f","character_id":null,"markdown":"より正確には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_889b8f1d-5a94-40f7-ae7d-3d9471184ba7","kind":"paragraph","order":333,"section_id":"sec_f6641a2d-d472-49ac-86dc-2c988390860f","character_id":null,"markdown":"電子回路、レーザー、光変調器、光回路、受光器が協力して通信する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56d0db3e-c20e-4fdb-b882-fea9a107248f","kind":"paragraph","order":334,"section_id":"sec_f6641a2d-d472-49ac-86dc-2c988390860f","character_id":null,"markdown":"となります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93e29e66-f93c-4e49-a240-629a8fee694b","kind":"paragraph","order":335,"section_id":"sec_f6641a2d-d472-49ac-86dc-2c988390860f","character_id":null,"markdown":"それぞれの役割は次のとおりです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0525098a-be2c-4d40-8bd5-8977e250f3b7","kind":"paragraph","order":336,"section_id":"sec_f6641a2d-d472-49ac-86dc-2c988390860f","character_id":null,"markdown":"部品役割CWレーザー情報を載せるための連続光を作る電子ドライバー送信する0と1を電圧信号として作る光変調器電気データを光へ載せる光導波路光を目的地まで運ぶ分岐器光を複数経路へ分ける合波器複数波長を一本へまとめる分波器波長ごとに分ける光スイッチ光の経路を切り替えるフォトダイオード光を電流へ変えるTIA・受信回路微小電流を増幅してデータを復元する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f882af19-5852-4b64-a1ba-b29228e14bf2","kind":"paragraph","order":337,"section_id":"sec_f6641a2d-d472-49ac-86dc-2c988390860f","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー単独では通信は完結しません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9d225f45-7973-42ee-ae74-2639e9f185a9","kind":"paragraph","order":338,"section_id":"sec_f6641a2d-d472-49ac-86dc-2c988390860f","character_id":null,"markdown":"同様に、光回路単独でも光源がなければ通信できません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5a742737-04cb-4ce4-9a7f-6f3ed79a1a86","kind":"heading","order":339,"section_id":"sec_cebec18a-ffd1-43b3-86f7-37e0c19b0075","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜光回路全体の通信動作","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e608d43-e0a4-4ee9-b691-2bacf280b90c","kind":"figure","order":340,"section_id":"sec_cebec18a-ffd1-43b3-86f7-37e0c19b0075","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光回路全体の通信動作 01](/media/56a41ff485e8070af1448793989656f1bcc7b5b952d1d18af96407da93eb98c5-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1797be09-ecd6-41b7-8aab-5012ef1c659f","kind":"heading","order":341,"section_id":"sec_1b27bf7a-f6be-4584-9676-f4d6e7269dcf","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 13．シリコンフォトニクス送信機の一連の動作","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_df8e3cdf-081c-46d8-9c6d-bdc9679fda4e","kind":"paragraph","order":342,"section_id":"sec_1b27bf7a-f6be-4584-9676-f4d6e7269dcf","character_id":null,"markdown":"たとえばGPUからデータを送る場合です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_50f2e36a-eaee-432e-b19e-4425776c9ade","kind":"paragraph","order":343,"section_id":"sec_1b27bf7a-f6be-4584-9676-f4d6e7269dcf","character_id":null,"markdown":"① GPUやスイッチASICが電気データを出す","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_375d11f1-616d-4af0-962f-639e4c1973d3","kind":"paragraph","order":344,"section_id":"sec_1b27bf7a-f6be-4584-9676-f4d6e7269dcf","character_id":null,"markdown":"1 0 1 1 0 1 …","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3df9bf90-de35-4379-97b0-297014ff55e2","kind":"paragraph","order":345,"section_id":"sec_1b27bf7a-f6be-4584-9676-f4d6e7269dcf","character_id":null,"markdown":"② SerDesが高速信号へ変換する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_79ed3da6-7d4a-4298-804d-5d03320aa4f1","kind":"paragraph","order":346,"section_id":"sec_1b27bf7a-f6be-4584-9676-f4d6e7269dcf","character_id":null,"markdown":"並列データを高速な直列信号へまとめます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d59e55fc-f38b-40c2-9a5d-5840ddc24ace","kind":"paragraph","order":347,"section_id":"sec_1b27bf7a-f6be-4584-9676-f4d6e7269dcf","character_id":null,"markdown":"③ ドライバーが変調器を駆動する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d7c88b82-f682-40cd-b732-4861d1f25792","kind":"paragraph","order":348,"section_id":"sec_1b27bf7a-f6be-4584-9676-f4d6e7269dcf","character_id":null,"markdown":"電圧を増幅し、変調器へ加えます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb970593-9bf9-4edb-ab8c-c543e974b980","kind":"paragraph","order":349,"section_id":"sec_1b27bf7a-f6be-4584-9676-f4d6e7269dcf","character_id":null,"markdown":"④ CWレーザーが連続光を供給する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bbc3b46b-31e1-4cc7-9e8c-5c9dd02679c5","kind":"paragraph","order":350,"section_id":"sec_1b27bf7a-f6be-4584-9676-f4d6e7269dcf","character_id":null,"markdown":"この時点の光にはまだデータは載っていません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_24115132-e13f-490e-9ce9-5dd8a4fed065","kind":"paragraph","order":351,"section_id":"sec_1b27bf7a-f6be-4584-9676-f4d6e7269dcf","character_id":null,"markdown":"──────────── 連続光","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d07f695-5987-464d-96b5-ddb07e3485ec","kind":"paragraph","order":352,"section_id":"sec_1b27bf7a-f6be-4584-9676-f4d6e7269dcf","character_id":null,"markdown":"⑤ シリコン変調器がデータを載せる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d83a655a-5403-4f76-8ca8-8752ddaa0b82","kind":"paragraph","order":353,"section_id":"sec_1b27bf7a-f6be-4584-9676-f4d6e7269dcf","character_id":null,"markdown":"電気信号に合わせて光強度や位相を変化させます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_079bab9d-8f31-4d1c-aeb5-7bcf63855355","kind":"paragraph","order":354,"section_id":"sec_1b27bf7a-f6be-4584-9676-f4d6e7269dcf","character_id":null,"markdown":"⑥ 光回路が合波・分岐する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ffcd806-6214-4746-b6cc-ae633a4eb82a","kind":"paragraph","order":355,"section_id":"sec_1b27bf7a-f6be-4584-9676-f4d6e7269dcf","character_id":null,"markdown":"複数のレーザー波長を一本のファイバーへまとめることもあります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15162519-05f4-499b-a4dd-ca81584e62fe","kind":"paragraph","order":356,"section_id":"sec_1b27bf7a-f6be-4584-9676-f4d6e7269dcf","character_id":null,"markdown":"⑦ 光ファイバーで伝送する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_94b988ed-ee01-4f52-a7b4-47bbfdf1a36a","kind":"paragraph","order":357,"section_id":"sec_1b27bf7a-f6be-4584-9676-f4d6e7269dcf","character_id":null,"markdown":"⑧ 受信側フォトダイオードが光を電流へ変える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d2401241-398d-4778-aadb-73af23f95725","kind":"paragraph","order":358,"section_id":"sec_1b27bf7a-f6be-4584-9676-f4d6e7269dcf","character_id":null,"markdown":"⑨ TIAとSerDesが電気データを復元する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_393f0a93-a74d-4006-83b2-c93de1f41d89","kind":"heading","order":359,"section_id":"sec_30af0bf8-bc2b-435d-bace-4013d301aceb","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜SiPh送信機の信号経路","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0d0e7665-c4ab-4a30-815e-e31fbe3d6259","kind":"figure","order":360,"section_id":"sec_30af0bf8-bc2b-435d-bace-4013d301aceb","character_id":null,"markdown":"![SiPh送信機の信号経路 01](/media/95da5530ad810a5514ae76a545d13705c84a4cfa19b22bc60767904037a4a38a-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f62338bf-6e74-4ae8-8104-bffe6bcc5a06","kind":"heading","order":361,"section_id":"sec_addf9eec-415a-4fbf-b7f1-9a38e5de0488","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 14．レーザー自体が通信する方式もある","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f0edbef-1891-4747-b711-acb01b5c8dc8","kind":"paragraph","order":362,"section_id":"sec_addf9eec-415a-4fbf-b7f1-9a38e5de0488","character_id":null,"markdown":"CWレーザーと外部変調器を分ける方式だけではありません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c01bf7d-67ed-432a-9ac1-37ee552b6400","kind":"paragraph","order":363,"section_id":"sec_addf9eec-415a-4fbf-b7f1-9a38e5de0488","character_id":null,"markdown":"直接変調レーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d61bc09b-0f8a-4a56-88d8-85c4d47ebc62","kind":"paragraph","order":364,"section_id":"sec_addf9eec-415a-4fbf-b7f1-9a38e5de0488","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザーへ流す電流を高速に変え、レーザー出力そのものを変化させます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8963016-3c88-4b67-a0b6-c8d4111dc35e","kind":"paragraph","order":365,"section_id":"sec_addf9eec-415a-4fbf-b7f1-9a38e5de0488","character_id":null,"markdown":"電流を強くする → 光が強い\n電流を弱くする → 光が弱い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_894c6a56-b924-49b9-94cc-e852b0a99bf1","kind":"paragraph","order":366,"section_id":"sec_addf9eec-415a-4fbf-b7f1-9a38e5de0488","character_id":null,"markdown":"この場合は、レーザーが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_38c8f3c9-1010-4aaf-a3a8-b4f52a810f67","kind":"paragraph","order":367,"section_id":"sec_addf9eec-415a-4fbf-b7f1-9a38e5de0488","character_id":null,"markdown":"光源","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_62b1de0c-c813-4c23-a85e-25b305ce9525","kind":"paragraph","order":368,"section_id":"sec_addf9eec-415a-4fbf-b7f1-9a38e5de0488","character_id":null,"markdown":"変調器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c383a67b-c6ad-473d-8cc4-836ba737b30c","kind":"paragraph","order":369,"section_id":"sec_addf9eec-415a-4fbf-b7f1-9a38e5de0488","character_id":null,"markdown":"の両方を兼ねます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_10e650b7-ce1f-4683-a188-d95bf5bcf15b","kind":"paragraph","order":370,"section_id":"sec_addf9eec-415a-4fbf-b7f1-9a38e5de0488","character_id":null,"markdown":"利点は構造が簡単で低コストなことです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c69763cc-a706-439d-bf9e-3f5c1aa35e49","kind":"paragraph","order":371,"section_id":"sec_addf9eec-415a-4fbf-b7f1-9a38e5de0488","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方で、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e6683b53-f210-43d5-9769-bed5eb170e16","kind":"paragraph","order":372,"section_id":"sec_addf9eec-415a-4fbf-b7f1-9a38e5de0488","character_id":null,"markdown":"波長が変動するチャープ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_145ba12a-4099-4b7d-b9d7-3157ab12706e","kind":"paragraph","order":373,"section_id":"sec_addf9eec-415a-4fbf-b7f1-9a38e5de0488","character_id":null,"markdown":"高速化の限界","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bfe041fa-bd5b-4699-b0a9-014f36a13783","kind":"paragraph","order":374,"section_id":"sec_addf9eec-415a-4fbf-b7f1-9a38e5de0488","character_id":null,"markdown":"高出力との両立","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_155122b8-0970-4b84-92a4-68e4dd7cff9a","kind":"paragraph","order":375,"section_id":"sec_addf9eec-415a-4fbf-b7f1-9a38e5de0488","character_id":null,"markdown":"温度変化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e52f106-e421-45fd-8db8-295cc5861e49","kind":"paragraph","order":376,"section_id":"sec_addf9eec-415a-4fbf-b7f1-9a38e5de0488","character_id":null,"markdown":"信号品質","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e97b75a-67a9-4918-af69-09fd42f48af4","kind":"paragraph","order":377,"section_id":"sec_addf9eec-415a-4fbf-b7f1-9a38e5de0488","character_id":null,"markdown":"が問題になります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c6371ab-b6fa-4f7b-80ff-ce6907dbcb5e","kind":"paragraph","order":378,"section_id":"sec_addf9eec-415a-4fbf-b7f1-9a38e5de0488","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため高速・高密度のシリコンフォトニクスでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0a3ba500-06b1-419a-9249-2b2e33dcc534","kind":"paragraph","order":379,"section_id":"sec_addf9eec-415a-4fbf-b7f1-9a38e5de0488","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザーは安定したCW光源、変調はシリコン側","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6c04a133-7a89-4d05-af88-a223aed1ba03","kind":"paragraph","order":380,"section_id":"sec_addf9eec-415a-4fbf-b7f1-9a38e5de0488","character_id":null,"markdown":"という分業が有力です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_89a0fb47-e5a7-4178-a64f-e7c0b6d1fb85","kind":"heading","order":381,"section_id":"sec_140bb6db-b563-4336-9ab0-1893a673946d","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜直接変調と外部変調","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d6621dde-0dea-4a37-adce-92c4980f413e","kind":"figure","order":382,"section_id":"sec_140bb6db-b563-4336-9ab0-1893a673946d","character_id":null,"markdown":"![直接変調と外部変調 01](/media/041f7bf223ef868ba6770ac94b0398d3deccd23c005dea9c8cf1b0ea727d1054-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_569eb108-de55-435a-89d8-2e07a60ff60e","kind":"heading","order":383,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 15．CPOではなぜ外部CWレーザーが有力なのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c003f179-3008-4eb9-9097-68f862d59e0c","kind":"paragraph","order":384,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPOでは、光変調器や光導波路をスイッチASICのすぐ近くへ置きます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c805f2c-d2eb-42c1-b125-3b75565d28a6","kind":"paragraph","order":385,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしASIC周辺は高温です。レーザーをその近くへ置くと、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c783013-ebf8-4742-8253-2bae6f443de8","kind":"paragraph","order":386,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"光出力低下","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_23e2d3de-7144-4b90-90fb-f1d5cea9bc82","kind":"paragraph","order":387,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"波長ずれ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_013898ac-8ad7-4d0f-a355-2125ca061954","kind":"paragraph","order":388,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"効率低下","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f009da40-2605-47ea-830b-0352414aa3ed","kind":"paragraph","order":389,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"寿命短縮","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2a8a429f-36ed-43f7-9fbf-79975fedfac3","kind":"paragraph","order":390,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"が起きやすくなります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_61928b6f-be08-4638-8be2-2c00d676f6ba","kind":"paragraph","order":391,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこでレーザーを比較的冷たい位置へ置き、ファイバーでCW光を光エンジンへ運びます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_655aade7-c137-4aa4-a1a9-e47318083eb1","kind":"paragraph","order":392,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"外部レーザー源\n     ↓ CW光\n光ファイバー\n     ↓\nCPO光エンジン\n     ↓\nシリコン変調器でデータを載せる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2351a43f-e624-4264-9002-71f783669424","kind":"paragraph","order":393,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"この外部レーザー源には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f26db1cc-b73f-438d-83db-6e094dbc5ea4","kind":"paragraph","order":394,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"複数波長のDFBレーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b8612d3-061e-4505-ad42-be0b22c16f11","kind":"paragraph","order":395,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"温度制御","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8984e4e1-ffae-4498-919d-02c9e97572c7","kind":"paragraph","order":396,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"光出力監視","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_608b06b1-5b0c-4a50-a424-809fc3d1c42c","kind":"paragraph","order":397,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"冗長レーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3084f99a-4aac-4a6e-b0df-0b9602c6adda","kind":"paragraph","order":398,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"ファイバー結合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0a890a2f-6bbc-4b9e-87d5-b3d16a0d53fe","kind":"paragraph","order":399,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"などが含まれます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19f0cba6-fc5d-4d9a-9c83-f810bc0dbfe2","kind":"paragraph","order":400,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"まとめ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6cb0aefc-781b-4430-aa1f-71373a993733","kind":"paragraph","order":401,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB格子","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_87fbeae6-2cae-4947-9b44-4ee640d60bcc","kind":"paragraph","order":402,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー内部にある周期構造で、特定波長だけを帰還・増幅します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f99b907-f20a-405c-a521-c1f6ea9a2d10","kind":"paragraph","order":403,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"BH再成長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3d1ee8e4-69bc-43a7-bce3-9cfcfe61b050","kind":"paragraph","order":404,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"量子井戸を含む細い活性領域の左右をInPで埋め直す工程です。電流、光、熱を制御し、高出力と信頼性を高めます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_20850007-dfe1-4f9b-a25c-f7531cd37c30","kind":"paragraph","order":405,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンフォトニクス","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d9fda4d-b101-462c-977a-69ef5c93e7b9","kind":"paragraph","order":406,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"光導波路、変調器、分岐器、合波器、受光器などをシリコン基板上に集積する技術です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19c21c6c-849a-458e-8dbc-fe27c6c01d7e","kind":"paragraph","order":407,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"CWレーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21a364b0-12bc-4e87-8a41-e5f8943f0e7a","kind":"paragraph","order":408,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンフォトニクス方式では、基本的に情報の載っていない安定した連続光を供給する光源です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a70c7983-fa5f-451a-85f3-b6a413f02c90","kind":"paragraph","order":409,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際の通信","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c3b47bef-038d-4a1c-ae27-b3fb907b1883","kind":"paragraph","order":410,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"電気データを光へ載せるのは変調器、光を運び処理するのは光回路、光を電気へ戻すのはフォトダイオードです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5e71c9e-8a51-4f09-961b-7b38fe8cb207","kind":"paragraph","order":411,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"全体の流れは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_50a10dbe-2155-4843-b26e-045add69b518","kind":"paragraph","order":412,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"電気データ\n→ ドライバー\n→ 光変調器\n＋ CWレーザー光\n→ 光信号\n→ 光導波路・ファイバー\n→ フォトダイオード\n→ 電気データ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_598169ef-3356-4a0a-904c-06dc86d73649","kind":"paragraph","order":413,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"となります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_22ae998b-1889-4707-b853-ee44eeccb95f","kind":"paragraph","order":414,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、ユーザーの理解を一文で言い換えると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ab96fa11-c955-4eae-84e2-9262d78d26c0","kind":"paragraph","order":415,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"CWレーザーが通信のための光を作り、シリコンフォトニクスの光変調器が情報を載せ、光回路が運び、受光器が電気信号へ戻す","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9eb781f1-ce2a-4742-8d1b-b9a92b63c85b","kind":"paragraph","order":416,"section_id":"sec_8009cb3f-662c-4bab-8ad8-f7a2ed69feb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"という構成です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d324ac7f-03f8-415c-9b81-6a9e67915997","kind":"heading","order":417,"section_id":"sec_5b5d84c9-9cf2-49e3-89ad-4c84cf521ebe","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜CPOと外部CW光源","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b2716bd6-b042-404c-a8bd-3c8e9945e99c","kind":"figure","order":418,"section_id":"sec_5b5d84c9-9cf2-49e3-89ad-4c84cf521ebe","character_id":null,"markdown":"![CPOと外部CW光源 01](/media/8a45458fd7ba74cdbf5a6a9747a104c843db5ec4e84d5a74aef218f4f25278bf-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd402b1c-efaf-4383-b709-5f56ceac3aa0","kind":"heading","order":419,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 4．なぜ日本がこの領域で強いのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9a037ae0-e842-426f-a5b9-c6e555f964b0","kind":"paragraph","order":420,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFBレーザーや量子井戸の基本概念は、世界各国の研究者によって発展した。日本だけの発明ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_62758692-6954-42d2-9c84-c97ccbba161c","kind":"paragraph","order":421,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方、日本は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c5e3693-651b-4f79-a5a7-dce7a1ff8dd0","kind":"paragraph","order":422,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP系の量子井戸、長波長単一モード発振、位相制御DFB、埋込み再成長を実用的な通信レーザーへ統合する技術","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0258dd64-e4b2-4a37-828d-af85f51728cb","kind":"paragraph","order":423,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"で歴史的に強かった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb780f45-9022-469e-8959-78838baa4016","kind":"paragraph","order":424,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"旧東京工業大学の末松安晴氏らは、1978年に長波長DBRレーザーを実証し、1980年には高速直接変調下での単一モード動作、1983年には位相シフト型DFBレーザーと波長可変レーザーを実現した。この業績はIEEE Milestoneに認定されている。(ISCT)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_67934832-55bb-40dd-b018-830786668b00","kind":"paragraph","order":425,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"特に位相シフトDFBは重要である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a095cc8b-ac24-4f8c-9efb-91da3855d999","kind":"paragraph","order":426,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"一様な格子ではブラッグ波長の両側にあるモードが競合しやすいが、格子中央へ位相変化を入れることで、特定の一つのモードを優先させられる。現在の高安定単一モードDFBレーザーへつながる基本技術である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f4a7b7b-b309-4d69-9483-60cd6430c372","kind":"paragraph","order":427,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらにNTT、KDD、NEC、富士通、日立、三菱電機、古河電工、住友電工などが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dffbdbf2-7c9a-48d0-982c-127b41c7a6d1","kind":"paragraph","order":428,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP基板","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc8603ff-cd0b-4c6a-b230-dc76a96e955e","kind":"paragraph","order":429,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"InGaAsP・AlGaInAs量子井戸","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_30edaa37-d87f-4273-b86e-1ec9fdec10bc","kind":"paragraph","order":430,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB格子","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f550c88-ae4a-4c2c-8ad5-b7f69d573588","kind":"paragraph","order":431,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"BH再成長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2fc6ae6c-d512-49b6-a1bd-f148cded0bbb","kind":"paragraph","order":432,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"長期信頼性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9f36436-e1bd-4046-b90a-5101786879a5","kind":"paragraph","order":433,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"光ファイバー結合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0ebf85c-6e04-4df4-9ec3-60f505e4218d","kind":"paragraph","order":434,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"を産業技術へ落とし込んだ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d3542529-55cf-4238-9e1d-9172e037d7bc","kind":"paragraph","order":435,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本の強みは、単に量子井戸へ強く光を閉じ込めることではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_abd54567-5598-40f5-b905-05eea19bb7fa","kind":"paragraph","order":436,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"電子、正孔、光、電流、発振波長を、用途ごとに異なる強さで閉じ込める設計と製造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2159bada-5c9d-43a2-91ce-506f5be159d1","kind":"paragraph","order":437,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"にある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_31df62ca-f8e7-47ca-9074-4fa0f219d35e","kind":"paragraph","order":438,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPO用の高出力CWレーザーでは、量子井戸への光閉じ込めが強すぎると、利得飽和、発熱、空間的ホールバーニング、端面光密度の上昇につながる。そのため光モードを大きくし、量子井戸との重なりを適度に抑える設計も必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cdf7b6ab-3ce3-4e86-8ddc-c6dcac898a9b","kind":"paragraph","order":439,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"はい。日本の強みは、単に「高品質な量子井戸を作れる」ことよりも、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_27cad1f2-d669-450e-8f51-32b51de91cfd","kind":"paragraph","order":440,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQW活性層のバンド設計と結晶成長、SCHによる光モード設計を、DFB格子・BH再成長・高信頼性実装まで一体で最適化してきたこと","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e19af8a4-23cd-482d-b9aa-95795127a89c","kind":"paragraph","order":441,"section_id":"sec_0c85ece6-dafb-4149-8ad3-278b370fd6e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"にあります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_08177e9c-6d8b-45db-9d8a-1a42eb3ef578","kind":"heading","order":442,"section_id":"sec_1537f31a-c0fc-4b9d-8922-e13d9c3addaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜日本の研究蓄積の全体像","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8334f8e3-c4de-42ef-9d7d-55a55348a173","kind":"figure","order":443,"section_id":"sec_1537f31a-c0fc-4b9d-8922-e13d9c3addaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"![日本の研究蓄積の全体像 01](/media/6f9191057331a4c31f31b5bbdc4716c155283024e40ebb4fb1835c6e029cfcd6-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ed958430-3ed9-400b-92ea-43ee4555ff07","kind":"figure","order":444,"section_id":"sec_1537f31a-c0fc-4b9d-8922-e13d9c3addaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"![日本の研究蓄積の全体像 02](/media/1611f3170cfa7eb5d98a9097d81001200ab943c07f25561cf10ba86e78c0cbde-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3f6b36b5-97cf-4cc1-bfd0-31fb29eeec94","kind":"heading","order":445,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 1．MQW活性層での日本の強み","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a1ac32ed-ccda-47dd-85c8-f527c6d51968","kind":"paragraph","order":446,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"① 歪み量子井戸を欠陥なく成長させる技術","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_297d5b06-4bb3-4008-b980-0b3eefc44913","kind":"paragraph","order":447,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQWでは、InGaAsP、AlGaInAs、InGaAsなどの数nm厚の井戸層と障壁層を交互に積層します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5ecb2d6-daa8-41b3-b725-aca2144c0d32","kind":"paragraph","order":448,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"歪み量子井戸を使うと、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6434d5f-85f6-438d-83da-c08cf22a4407","kind":"paragraph","order":449,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"低いしきい値電流","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_055283cb-55b2-4cf1-ac90-748b014d6bbe","kind":"paragraph","order":450,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"高い微分利得","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1aad0fc4-a35e-4c69-adff-64f558609b0d","kind":"paragraph","order":451,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"高い量子効率","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41e27d0d-001b-4c43-a07c-b20f5848fcce","kind":"paragraph","order":452,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"偏光特性の制御","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7185f4a6-0997-4d09-a472-cfff414613b3","kind":"paragraph","order":453,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"高速変調","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f6a755fc-275f-483a-af2c-73156cbbf223","kind":"paragraph","order":454,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"発振波長の調整","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af49ae3a-f2ea-4d20-83bf-de1712cedab7","kind":"paragraph","order":455,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"が可能になります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4163a2d2-4fa9-4608-9b76-4726aa1591b4","kind":"paragraph","order":456,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、材料の格子定数がInP基板と異なるほど歪みが増え、井戸を厚くしすぎると転位や界面欠陥が発生します。NTTは、高In組成のInGaAs・InAs量子井戸について、臨界膜厚、成長温度、組成を制御し、5nm厚のInAs MQWを構造劣化なく成長させ、2.3µm超でCW単一モード動作するDFBレーザーまで実証しています。これは通信波長帯を越えた例ですが、日本の量子井戸成長技術の幅を示しています。(NTT Technical Review)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dbd94a2d-9750-45da-9717-81c9b6eea472","kind":"paragraph","order":457,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本勢が強いのは、単に井戸を薄く作ることではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_689fb863-d60f-4482-a0cc-72f2603fa879","kind":"math","order":458,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{井戸厚}+\\text{材料組成}+\\text{歪み量}+\\text{障壁高さ}+\\text{成長温度}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ba97e40c-0c00-444e-b2cb-cd2c636d0105","kind":"paragraph","order":459,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"を組み合わせて、欠陥を増やさずに狙った利得を得る設計です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_11305694-a5d5-40c6-be05-09fc1f14c963","kind":"paragraph","order":460,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"② InGaAsPとAlGaInAsを使い分けるバンド設計","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ba0659ac-4e23-4932-bc8e-1153d728b458","kind":"paragraph","order":461,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来のInP系通信レーザーではInGaAsPが広く使われてきました。一方、高温動作や高速化ではAlGaInAs系MQWが有力です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8bd4178-5271-4689-9537-d1e665662e76","kind":"paragraph","order":462,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"AlGaInAs系では、設計によって電子に対する障壁を高くしやすく、高温時に電子が量子井戸からあふれるキャリアオーバーフローを抑えられます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_809d0591-d004-4d09-82c6-ed6a13c7c604","kind":"paragraph","order":463,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"NTTはInGaAlAs MQWを使ったDFBレーザー・EMLについて、10～40Gbit/s級の高速動作と広い温度範囲での無冷却動作を開発してきました。高温時の電子・正孔のMQWからの流出を問題として捉え、材料と障壁構造から対策している点が重要です。(NTT Technical Review)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a572d02e-be23-4018-a238-80ecb0727238","kind":"paragraph","order":464,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"住友電工も、1.3µm帯AlGaInAs/InP DFBレーザーを高速直接変調用に開発してきました。(Sumitomo Electric)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_370275cc-a721-4a8b-975d-6875fec8ab46","kind":"paragraph","order":465,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり日本には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_363c4f37-7ef7-4fbe-b656-063be3ff1d2a","kind":"paragraph","order":466,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"InGaAsPの成熟した量産技術","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_907d4f44-78c2-49e2-bf5d-a9773f6e3b5d","kind":"paragraph","order":467,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"AlGaInAsの高温・高速特性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f19f5360-e3ca-4564-b068-fbe9aa9e2838","kind":"paragraph","order":468,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"歪み量子井戸の利得向上","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0fd87bdd-5c4f-4d7f-a6de-bd2feacf5664","kind":"paragraph","order":469,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"障壁によるキャリア漏れ抑制","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_269df8d0-37c4-4e11-b8b6-b973d402d069","kind":"paragraph","order":470,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"を用途別に使い分ける蓄積があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_047c73b0-821a-4017-b406-bb42742454c4","kind":"paragraph","order":471,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"③ 低しきい値と高速変調を両立する微分利得設計","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a740d220-c094-487c-b656-15747cbd96ab","kind":"paragraph","order":472,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"直接変調レーザーの速度は、量子井戸の微分利得、光子密度、キャリア寿命、光閉じ込め係数などに左右されます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f5d30c3e-3372-4933-b06d-d155bf764966","kind":"paragraph","order":473,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本では、量子井戸の、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e6b554e6-1747-4f8d-8d76-4998d27c9f34","kind":"paragraph","order":474,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"井戸数","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb67c424-9e4a-4347-a033-581c5fe57693","kind":"paragraph","order":475,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"井戸厚","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5fcb4286-2034-4833-b5f1-c6693d9d121c","kind":"paragraph","order":476,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"圧縮歪み","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_40d5c961-ed4d-461e-9729-83f6ad3a938c","kind":"paragraph","order":477,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"障壁組成","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b3bd3065-6df6-426b-99e1-fbb9c8d66528","kind":"paragraph","order":478,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"利得ピーク","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43d35e07-81c8-4725-b34b-e36a277b398e","kind":"paragraph","order":479,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"キャリア分布","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b3d301e1-d07d-4998-bc3d-5a2c38a5a965","kind":"paragraph","order":480,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"を調整し、少ない電流変化で大きく光出力を変えられる構造が研究されてきました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b01fd976-9c44-4dc7-baa3-ab904492ea9c","kind":"paragraph","order":481,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"NTTのInP系膜型レーザーでは、MQWを含む非常に薄いIII-V膜をSiO₂/Si上へ集積し、活性層への強い光閉じ込めを利用して、0.9mAの低しきい値や25～40Gbit/sの直接変調を実証しました。(NTT Technical Review)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0997178d-1490-4bef-94e3-434cb66edd79","kind":"paragraph","order":482,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらにNTTは、膜型構造と光フィードバックを組み合わせ、100GHzを超える変調帯域や256Gbit/s PAM4まで示しています。これは通常のCPO用CWレーザーとは異なる用途ですが、MQW利得と光閉じ込めの共同設計能力を示しています。(NTT Technical Review)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_42d17f54-8217-4658-bfb3-c439c531f1cc","kind":"paragraph","order":483,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"④ 高出力向けには、量子井戸への集中を適度に弱める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19dbadc3-d919-42a7-a1e9-30d759cdcb95","kind":"paragraph","order":484,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"高速・低しきい値レーザーでは、光とMQWの重なりを強くすることが有効です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c7e3aca-bc52-4cc8-aa2a-cf8cee104bbd","kind":"paragraph","order":485,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし高出力CWレーザーでは、量子井戸内の光密度を高くしすぎると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f5a5d279-8b2e-4fa9-a17c-c83e240e6ae1","kind":"paragraph","order":486,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"利得飽和","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_83126c37-2c61-439d-a6cf-1c2a756f9a22","kind":"paragraph","order":487,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"空間的ホールバーニング","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f450d82c-730d-4ac2-be8f-fd261a01bfbd","kind":"paragraph","order":488,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"活性層の温度上昇","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ac5bc937-1b98-4201-a988-ab1217d31df9","kind":"paragraph","order":489,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"非線形損失","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3cd8eb38-27a5-414c-9121-aeed06afdbfb","kind":"paragraph","order":490,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"端面損傷","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9373f646-c897-45c2-839a-fc5ae9c9d270","kind":"paragraph","order":491,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"が起こりやすくなります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0236c5d9-f951-4b5d-b96e-f0d28472e34b","kind":"paragraph","order":492,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"古河電工は高出力CW-DFBレーザーについて、MQW構造の光閉じ込めを適切に設計し、S・C・L帯にわたり40mW出力を200mA未満の駆動電流で得たと報告しています。(Furukawa Electric)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b4a349e0-b604-499c-8c80-8dba34fd8d67","kind":"paragraph","order":493,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここでの日本の強みは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_983be52b-9830-4e0a-96b8-d52dd6040f44","kind":"paragraph","order":494,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"量子井戸へ光を最大限押し込むことではなく、低しきい値・効率・高出力・寿命に応じて重なりを調整すること","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2153e62a-861f-4a9e-8b7f-e08351d0f36a","kind":"paragraph","order":495,"section_id":"sec_b9ddb07a-f849-4b30-9c1c-381e5170a374","character_id":null,"markdown":"です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ac6f0958-34d9-4d8b-bceb-943bc2583ec0","kind":"heading","order":496,"section_id":"sec_549da0eb-9e6b-4484-b68a-3ba3845e4be6","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜量子井戸とMQW活性層","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6c058a47-8694-4c3c-8b40-b6cb9bce6e9e","kind":"figure","order":497,"section_id":"sec_549da0eb-9e6b-4484-b68a-3ba3845e4be6","character_id":null,"markdown":"![量子井戸とMQW活性層 01](/media/678f3a9cb01e0efb68f1e5be5c1da5829fda47af80f739af1c5588d924c19046-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b1ccf335-d617-4566-ab76-70e6201788ff","kind":"figure","order":498,"section_id":"sec_549da0eb-9e6b-4484-b68a-3ba3845e4be6","character_id":null,"markdown":"![量子井戸とMQW活性層 02](/media/2e2808aede5debcb7925965dec145dfe06b2f627b07f495600ae10d6e84a5d00-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19617cd3-99ab-42eb-b526-cc8a88539c69","kind":"figure","order":499,"section_id":"sec_549da0eb-9e6b-4484-b68a-3ba3845e4be6","character_id":null,"markdown":"![量子井戸とMQW活性層 03](/media/fd166c636f34a8f34cf677a057ee68e43e26dbafd526059fea8246f23314d54e-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a8abe9a4-2493-4e73-9c0c-12a53503802a","kind":"figure","order":500,"section_id":"sec_549da0eb-9e6b-4484-b68a-3ba3845e4be6","character_id":null,"markdown":"![量子井戸とMQW活性層 04](/media/efc246009c36391e6d375ea7012a538e136309b106785166e87c5f94013d8d41-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_29891f10-7988-49bb-9d07-ca150bf9ec09","kind":"figure","order":501,"section_id":"sec_549da0eb-9e6b-4484-b68a-3ba3845e4be6","character_id":null,"markdown":"![量子井戸とMQW活性層 05](/media/4ddca77387cc894b0d1e338b135b6798599a2981e2a36c9773d6231071075496-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4b7a33cd-054b-48d2-bc14-4d815f75ac29","kind":"heading","order":502,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 2．SCH層での日本の強み","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_57b8524a-f6f9-4e24-80ab-f9feeb6344e9","kind":"paragraph","order":503,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"① 光モードの大きさと位置を設計する能力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_09b7a121-0a8d-49e7-a157-64270df2c442","kind":"paragraph","order":504,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"SCH層は、MQWの上下に置かれ、光モードの形を決めます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_94bac4d0-8381-472c-bccf-b5d65362aa8f","kind":"paragraph","order":505,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"SCH設計によって調整できるのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d84c202f-0a4d-4953-b14d-7c823f8b79bb","kind":"paragraph","order":506,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"光閉じ込め係数(\\Gamma)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8a2f9d1-d501-4aa9-b7cd-c952749a0a5f","kind":"paragraph","order":507,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"光モードの垂直方向の広がり","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e176e4e-9adb-40c8-b92a-9af15130c75f","kind":"paragraph","order":508,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQWとの重なり","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a108c16b-6620-4722-b49a-a3b2ccc666a0","kind":"paragraph","order":509,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB格子との重なり","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_909ba081-835d-436f-8e85-6fb3bd24e3c8","kind":"paragraph","order":510,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"端面でのスポットサイズ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_82baa614-6ba8-49ed-9883-0a0b388454e6","kind":"paragraph","order":511,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"ファイバー結合効率","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fc425f8a-f7b7-4815-85c7-62ca0dc4579a","kind":"paragraph","order":512,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"内部光密度","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1258c449-e5d8-4e29-9424-17da6ce6d248","kind":"paragraph","order":513,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ee882455-aa6c-4773-a0c7-1d66c223afb1","kind":"paragraph","order":514,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりSCHは、単なる「量子井戸の上下にある厚い層」ではなく、レーザーの性能を用途へ合わせる光学設計層です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7187cd57-7461-43cd-ab59-56087dfe242f","kind":"paragraph","order":515,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"高い光閉じ込め\n→ 低しきい値・高速変調・小型化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e68f2e2b-958e-41ee-b9fe-9dd24157e5d5","kind":"paragraph","order":516,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"適度に弱い光閉じ込め\n→ 高出力・低光密度・長寿命","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_235fcf94-1c1e-4a92-a118-0f3cff86f9c9","kind":"paragraph","order":517,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"大きな光モード\n→ ファイバー結合・端面耐性を改善","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e4a9985f-cf8c-4c99-a2a8-de92f6c34a47","kind":"paragraph","order":518,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本勢は、この使い分けを長く行ってきました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f07d0a0-2397-4774-b554-d3ffdff79594","kind":"paragraph","order":519,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"② MQWとDFB格子の重なりを別々に調整できる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_740fdc0f-5414-4c86-b61e-7f9adc0af2b8","kind":"paragraph","order":520,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFBレーザーでは、光モードの中心はMQW付近に必要ですが、光モードの裾はDFB格子まで届かなければなりません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_db961a77-f262-4779-ae97-da3ef463b6f3","kind":"paragraph","order":521,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"SCHが薄すぎたり、格子が近すぎたりすると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c3af6cf0-1043-4052-9337-ccb8b56a2e2c","kind":"paragraph","order":522,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"格子結合が強すぎる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_26ec1d14-b5a0-4b2e-9451-4f811729eeb4","kind":"paragraph","order":523,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"散乱損失が増える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f76ebb06-2daf-4956-9adb-ad9a8778d7ab","kind":"paragraph","order":524,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"光強度が長手方向に偏る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e3dee56c-eecf-4b8e-962c-7c7974105f53","kind":"paragraph","order":525,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"高出力化が難しくなる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_34294373-ad67-4cb0-82fb-09f5499ca8a8","kind":"paragraph","order":526,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"可能性があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8b6a6629-0722-4585-a7cb-04f41ba1d8c9","kind":"paragraph","order":527,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"反対にSCHが厚すぎると、光モードが格子へ十分届かず、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2ce2b9c8-fea8-46e5-93a4-a5222b790ec1","kind":"paragraph","order":528,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB帰還が弱い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3cbe6bb4-9179-4be9-b7fd-40da35ee3286","kind":"paragraph","order":529,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"SMSRが低下する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ae41acab-84bb-45cc-b752-5066fad1495b","kind":"paragraph","order":530,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"モード安定性が悪化する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a2a39817-8fd0-4c3d-9de9-37cf58f4940b","kind":"paragraph","order":531,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"可能性があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ee9a34c2-93e3-4cb2-8bd6-b693c968e06d","kind":"paragraph","order":532,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって日本のDFBレーザー研究では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ec23ffe0-f95b-4a50-84e2-77574bddde39","kind":"math","order":533,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{MQWとの重なり}\\quad\\text{と}\\quad\\text{DFB格子との重なり}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8a3f53eb-ab7d-4f48-850a-17e4f28f9a75","kind":"paragraph","order":534,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"を同時に最適化してきました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3a448d1c-a086-47cc-9b77-075b6c8f849d","kind":"paragraph","order":535,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"位相シフトDFBを含め、旧東京工業大学、NTT、通信機器メーカーが長波長単一モードレーザーを継続的に研究したことが、この設計層の厚みにつながっています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb46c548-ea4a-4055-a8e7-bbe92e5ddd41","kind":"paragraph","order":536,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"③ 用途に応じて光閉じ込めを反対方向に振れる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_38649f70-a4d6-45d7-b703-69d6616c90fd","kind":"paragraph","order":537,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"SCH設計の難しさは、用途によって正解が反対になることです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3b91845e-d84a-4167-b6d6-1092278b5203","kind":"paragraph","order":538,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"高速直接変調レーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e1e3271-c260-49e5-82f1-a8e5b834acd5","kind":"paragraph","order":539,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"活性層への光閉じ込めを高める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_44e6f503-db32-4ce6-b76e-be685c32860a","kind":"paragraph","order":540,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"短共振器化する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b1e39d68-7e28-4228-a730-ec57eeaaf910","kind":"paragraph","order":541,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"光子密度を高める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e3b3cbb0-f3da-47bc-bf7d-3f83b51f192d","kind":"paragraph","order":542,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"低電流で高速応答させる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3778cafa-5427-4484-bc12-c6769337bf31","kind":"paragraph","order":543,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"NTTの膜型レーザーは、SiO₂とIII-V薄膜の大きな屈折率差を使い、活性層への非常に強い光閉じ込めを実現しています。これにより低しきい値と高速直接変調を可能にしました。(NTT Technical Review)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ce6f5d6d-a388-4b5c-8bb5-6f00c798ba2d","kind":"paragraph","order":544,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"高出力CWレーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_45cbcb15-8c7f-4b13-8ed7-799897776363","kind":"paragraph","order":545,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"光モードをSCHへ広げる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b629a98e-c1ee-49e1-ae30-7de2fac2f935","kind":"paragraph","order":546,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQWとの重なりを適度に下げる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_063afbde-0dae-4529-805e-c49a87b326b2","kind":"paragraph","order":547,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"活性層内の光密度を下げる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b200b4c8-6df8-473a-b185-3b4572ca3e36","kind":"paragraph","order":548,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"端面スポットを大きくする","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8418f72-19fb-4693-b423-b23856b6b926","kind":"paragraph","order":549,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"発熱と利得飽和を緩和する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_44ab220e-3b67-4b95-aaa9-4500f87554ff","kind":"paragraph","order":550,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"古河電工の高出力CW-DFBや、住友電工のCPO向け高出力レーザーは、こちらの方向に近い設計思想です。住友電工はCPO向けに、SOAを集積した1.3µm帯InPレーザーで45℃時400mW超、電力変換効率25％を報告しています。(Sumitomo Electric)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71371edc-973d-4a92-a592-e366d2835ff0","kind":"paragraph","order":551,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じMQW・SCH技術を、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d03faf00-b505-4eb9-ae4c-8ab3edbdd67c","kind":"paragraph","order":552,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"小型・高速側","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_35985f8f-3bfb-46d0-8cb4-247d62faf4d5","kind":"paragraph","order":553,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"高出力・高信頼性側","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d9d00990-99ee-4df5-adad-5b593e685d49","kind":"paragraph","order":554,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"の両方へ振れることが強みです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1dfbbe67-547f-42a4-8d45-b77812b46484","kind":"paragraph","order":555,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"④ シリコン導波路との結合まで含めたSCH設計","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_35ce1bb6-a1c0-4e91-8da7-da9e8fb67dd0","kind":"paragraph","order":556,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"次世代では、SCHや光コアはレーザー単体の内部だけを考えればよいわけではありません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd8b587c-380b-4f3a-be99-d0ecf5a17d30","kind":"paragraph","order":557,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンフォトニクスへ光を渡すため、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e751a34-e0b3-4e81-973e-94c55b7284f3","kind":"paragraph","order":558,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"III-V側の実効屈折率","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cbcba7b8-e36c-413e-a78e-a4691e6c3294","kind":"paragraph","order":559,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"Si導波路側の実効屈折率","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_131059fd-e80f-4fa8-81a0-d0af821274d6","kind":"paragraph","order":560,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"テーパー長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5fe00caf-956e-4bad-b732-2c3ec0fd15eb","kind":"paragraph","order":561,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"モードサイズ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73648ef6-a1ab-4594-85d4-e045ec2ca5fa","kind":"paragraph","order":562,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"結合損失","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2027418b-ac9f-415d-ab3e-75f880ee6bba","kind":"paragraph","order":563,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"偏光","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_978bd62d-e66a-4263-a6f8-9b6e64135203","kind":"paragraph","order":564,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"製造位置ずれ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5db3582d-5b78-4da1-ac65-f4db95e36961","kind":"paragraph","order":565,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"まで同時に設計します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43adf48d-5fb5-40db-800f-2a52981a485e","kind":"paragraph","order":566,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"NTTは、InP系MQW膜をSiまたは他の導波路へ接合・転写し、Si導波路幅によってレーザーコアの光閉じ込め係数を制御する技術を開発しています。MQW層の接合、選択エッチング、InP再成長、格子形成、スポットサイズコンバーターまでを一連の工程として扱っています。(NTT Technical Review)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a99cb5d4-18fa-4861-9b26-8d13a1ae7347","kind":"paragraph","order":567,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは、従来の「InPレーザー内部のSCH設計」から、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8b51d300-a026-48a9-81ec-75bee8767bd2","kind":"paragraph","order":568,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"III-Vレーザーとシリコン光回路をまたぐモード設計","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_23b56127-9c10-481c-a3ec-0532dbf46570","kind":"paragraph","order":569,"section_id":"sec_8c883f21-3120-4e40-891d-27732c6618c3","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ発展したものです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8bd3c99a-0bee-4c22-a520-262392d925f9","kind":"heading","order":570,"section_id":"sec_938f848b-3cb3-42de-b0a4-bcef8b549233","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜SCHとダブルヘテロ構造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_89c1c48d-4a90-4998-9a7a-9d05ea320e84","kind":"figure","order":571,"section_id":"sec_938f848b-3cb3-42de-b0a4-bcef8b549233","character_id":null,"markdown":"![SCHとダブルヘテロ構造 01](/media/25e58fce7c1506b0064093a9eb92bd342a54e20121b670678b421ee7ec7d2a44-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_90ab86f4-d17b-443b-98eb-6fa6229b168e","kind":"figure","order":572,"section_id":"sec_938f848b-3cb3-42de-b0a4-bcef8b549233","character_id":null,"markdown":"![SCHとダブルヘテロ構造 02](/media/b3605fc894f4f83ff8e8bcb9338f6e3e91de37dfbb474ed97acb42f9812409d9-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8ddc54a-dcef-4009-9950-9f8489a59277","kind":"heading","order":573,"section_id":"sec_febcb9fb-528f-419f-9437-22e28414ffd6","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 3．MQWとSCHを別々に作らない点が重要","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7e4f6c91-65d3-471f-a86a-f836d88806ab","kind":"paragraph","order":574,"section_id":"sec_febcb9fb-528f-419f-9437-22e28414ffd6","character_id":null,"markdown":"量子井戸の設計だけが良くても、SCHが合っていなければ性能は出ません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a3ce2885-c291-4d88-bd31-26d5fa7afc5d","kind":"paragraph","order":575,"section_id":"sec_febcb9fb-528f-419f-9437-22e28414ffd6","character_id":null,"markdown":"たとえばMQWの利得が高くても、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_519d01b8-ad35-4774-a3f3-f16359e55c13","kind":"paragraph","order":576,"section_id":"sec_febcb9fb-528f-419f-9437-22e28414ffd6","character_id":null,"markdown":"光モードがMQWと十分重ならない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2930b8dd-e0d7-47fc-8c59-1e90d5903462","kind":"paragraph","order":577,"section_id":"sec_febcb9fb-528f-419f-9437-22e28414ffd6","character_id":null,"markdown":"格子との結合が不適切","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ce4fd38-9530-4f8e-b938-fd6c8fe38668","kind":"paragraph","order":578,"section_id":"sec_febcb9fb-528f-419f-9437-22e28414ffd6","character_id":null,"markdown":"光スポットが小さすぎて端面が壊れる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e61e9680-2176-4b31-917e-dd007da27883","kind":"paragraph","order":579,"section_id":"sec_febcb9fb-528f-419f-9437-22e28414ffd6","character_id":null,"markdown":"キャリアが高温で漏れる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ac87733-72f6-49de-b246-97b1d424f2cb","kind":"paragraph","order":580,"section_id":"sec_febcb9fb-528f-419f-9437-22e28414ffd6","character_id":null,"markdown":"横方向へ電流が広がる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4926c98f-1006-47c7-a859-26461a77e9f8","kind":"paragraph","order":581,"section_id":"sec_febcb9fb-528f-419f-9437-22e28414ffd6","character_id":null,"markdown":"と、良いレーザーにはなりません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9c46a760-581f-42b9-8910-89d5b5f6d828","kind":"paragraph","order":582,"section_id":"sec_febcb9fb-528f-419f-9437-22e28414ffd6","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際の設計は、概念的に次の多変数最適化です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5a982cab-80ef-4336-9535-d035103c92ed","kind":"math","order":583,"section_id":"sec_febcb9fb-528f-419f-9437-22e28414ffd6","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{レーザー性能}=f!\\left(\\substack{\\text{MQW組成・厚さ・井戸数・歪み}\\\\text{SCH厚さ・屈折率}\\\\text{光閉じ込め係数}\\\\text{DFB結合係数}\\\\text{BH電流閉じ込め}\\\\text{共振器長}\\\\text{端面反射率}\\\\text{熱抵抗}}\\right)}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b57321d-ad0a-454b-9277-66eee3b43fbb","kind":"paragraph","order":584,"section_id":"sec_febcb9fb-528f-419f-9437-22e28414ffd6","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本の強みは、この組合せを通信システムの要求まで遡って設計してきた点です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9ed821d0-a9d8-44c0-9443-e30f227065d3","kind":"heading","order":585,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 4．なぜ日本にこの強みが蓄積したのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5c7c144-ec7d-4847-bdab-c98503d0ca53","kind":"paragraph","order":586,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"通信事業者の研究所が材料まで研究した","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_398fb72a-bc63-4d64-852e-e25b7d129df0","kind":"paragraph","order":587,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"NTTなどは、通信システムだけでなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd10529e-bde1-4f57-8dae-22f8505713b7","kind":"paragraph","order":588,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"MOVPE結晶成長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_22706337-2355-4708-907c-ba76883fd9cb","kind":"paragraph","order":589,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQWバンド設計","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd7bf7c6-434c-4a4e-8425-7fbca31cf6d8","kind":"paragraph","order":590,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"SCH・導波路設計","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e117fabe-e964-4667-877b-ec0c651f102e","kind":"paragraph","order":591,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB格子","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f23f1c8-fd2d-4c3c-9946-eb133af03d96","kind":"paragraph","order":592,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"BH再成長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71594106-0f95-4b68-af52-eb36013efe9c","kind":"paragraph","order":593,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"変調器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd2318af-467e-4aab-90c5-1588aaccd2b1","kind":"paragraph","order":594,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"光集積","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_52ce4dcd-fe38-4795-9c45-e7e01d459eae","kind":"paragraph","order":595,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"伝送実験","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9c5655d1-8eda-449b-83bf-b97e73e0632a","kind":"paragraph","order":596,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"まで社内で研究してきました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d9be23df-2b03-44d2-b0af-1ef24c6f2bc4","kind":"paragraph","order":597,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため「良い材料を作る」だけではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eeba35a0-2e7b-4b49-89a4-a3ff6e774f94","kind":"paragraph","order":598,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際に何km伝送できるか、何Gbit/s出るか、どの温度で動くか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0563e891-29ef-4b91-a917-e30eb38831fd","kind":"paragraph","order":599,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"までフィードバックできました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ed36e4b-0b03-4071-a82e-e7267a77c01d","kind":"paragraph","order":600,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"材料・デバイス・光ファイバー・実装企業が同国内に揃った","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd82fa33-1d09-41a3-8126-488838f7a366","kind":"paragraph","order":601,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6305e46b-19af-43b8-bbf1-f2406e3a32a4","kind":"paragraph","order":602,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP基板：住友電工など","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f1ee38c-853a-4a3d-ab7b-eaf053a102db","kind":"paragraph","order":603,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQW・レーザー：NTT、古河電工、住友電工、三菱電機など","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc3d4143-5e66-42a1-9d78-f3eed1f0fe8f","kind":"paragraph","order":604,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"光ファイバー：古河電工、住友電工","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b8464600-1d29-46bb-ae90-d5c282e76c57","kind":"paragraph","order":605,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"光コネクター・実装","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c18f00cb-79bb-4266-a096-cf437bdc021a","kind":"paragraph","order":606,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"通信システム","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c744478f-8d57-4287-a7c7-4a6abcde8256","kind":"paragraph","order":607,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"大学の光電子研究","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7fbb35f-9f91-4676-9659-29124bdbee06","kind":"paragraph","order":608,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"が近接して存在しました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_78c2ccd9-7c03-43a9-8d12-5fa4911925e8","kind":"paragraph","order":609,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"住友電工は1970年代から光ファイバー、化合物半導体、光通信モジュールを並行開発し、光デバイスからモジュールまでの事業を築いてきました。(Sumitomo Electric)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9ccde6a0-3873-49fa-8c88-eab9abc4594f","kind":"paragraph","order":610,"section_id":"sec_6823e3ee-f6e3-4993-a682-93f62bcc695f","character_id":null,"markdown":"この垂直統合環境が、MQWやSCHを単独の材料研究で終わらせず、製品へ落とし込む力になったと考えられます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_df882536-e90b-43a7-99ed-10062465a062","kind":"heading","order":611,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 5．現在の日本の位置づけ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_23e5e84a-2a92-45ad-991f-3933519be60c","kind":"paragraph","order":612,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここは区別が必要です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5178cf5c-baba-4deb-ab0c-8f88253c603f","kind":"paragraph","order":613,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c3a65f73-0048-4fca-8eeb-0fed896be7a8","kind":"paragraph","order":614,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQW材料設計","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c5412ad-961b-45d2-b1c6-55f807ab6c31","kind":"paragraph","order":615,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"歪み制御","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_94f09682-a089-4726-85ed-a99ab3d1ebbd","kind":"paragraph","order":616,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"MOVPE成長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_534e2465-94f3-4f01-941e-5b03596355fa","kind":"paragraph","order":617,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"SCH・光モード設計","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7da91027-08b5-4dae-a50c-ffd28ac77d2e","kind":"paragraph","order":618,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB・位相制御","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c73101f-e98c-4355-b376-be66955f8ff0","kind":"paragraph","order":619,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"BH再成長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2dcb0324-2e87-41f8-8bc4-b3f96ff2102c","kind":"paragraph","order":620,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"高温・長寿命評価","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_458d6222-76b8-49a7-9ba6-4e55db4ded6a","kind":"paragraph","order":621,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"光ファイバー実装","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c07153b9-449c-4b6e-9507-23ff9b34f80a","kind":"paragraph","order":622,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"に厚い技術蓄積があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_359950ab-b49d-4455-8a2a-04d0ce9fc963","kind":"paragraph","order":623,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし現在の量産規模や市場支配力まで日本が一位という意味ではありません。Coherent、LumentumなどもInP MQW、SCH、高出力CWレーザーで非常に強く、台湾や欧州にもエピ・ファウンドリー能力があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0d23466b-9ede-4e1d-b6d9-db8d28b5ec6d","kind":"paragraph","order":624,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本の特徴は、純粋な生産量より、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_661b2470-3c2d-4d41-a35c-e23be5090b0f","kind":"paragraph","order":625,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"材料、光モード、格子、再成長、熱、実装を一つの通信デバイスとしてまとめる総合設計力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd54baed-a0fb-496a-8468-05d8446280d7","kind":"paragraph","order":626,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"にあります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6194aad1-3ed2-40e6-84a3-673475cdee6f","kind":"paragraph","order":627,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"まとめ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_295adf41-8966-42c4-bffc-e5176953ac08","kind":"paragraph","order":628,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQW活性層における日本の強みは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c2241d5-4697-4d03-a5dd-2c9f41f5f29c","kind":"paragraph","order":629,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"高品質な歪み量子井戸の結晶成長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8f8e94f-1240-4ad5-a8b3-89d567521336","kind":"paragraph","order":630,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"InGaAsP／AlGaInAsの使い分け","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41571c41-7dba-490d-b51a-b707f9aeb8da","kind":"paragraph","order":631,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"高温時のキャリア漏れ抑制","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7efb4969-d6c4-47cc-96c7-1334df2a8c58","kind":"paragraph","order":632,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"高い微分利得と低しきい値","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ed370b4d-9005-4abe-afcb-b45ad98355bc","kind":"paragraph","order":633,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"高速・高出力向けの利得設計","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43c740ed-7b58-4587-ab47-3f2e92e77c81","kind":"paragraph","order":634,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"波長帯を広げる量子井戸技術","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c7177dd-4fce-45ed-9a64-cd63a3117522","kind":"paragraph","order":635,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6d5940c4-54bf-41ba-8f33-78dae1e48a27","kind":"paragraph","order":636,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"SCH層における強みは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_97529dd2-3a81-432a-b531-7305c096e0ac","kind":"paragraph","order":637,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"光モードの大きさと位置の精密制御","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_44b86b87-3896-4544-bb25-c9b513dbdf52","kind":"paragraph","order":638,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQWとDFB格子への重なりの同時最適化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_925fe74f-406d-4c78-8e3c-cf8493421058","kind":"paragraph","order":639,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"高速用の強い閉じ込めと、高出力用の広いモードの使い分け","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a28f62db-63fb-4062-a222-7b961eca96c2","kind":"paragraph","order":640,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"端面・ファイバー・Si導波路まで含めたモード変換","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0994e2a5-caa2-4fa9-8e9f-5c29e032c652","kind":"paragraph","order":641,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQW、BH、DFB、熱設計との統合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e796fb5c-821f-4042-bf04-846941c8ec76","kind":"paragraph","order":642,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_74a06766-ec72-4c59-a3fb-46ea3de1ec4e","kind":"paragraph","order":643,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"一言で表すなら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_649b778d-f053-4c3d-a6ce-28a8477783e9","kind":"paragraph","order":644,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本の強みは「量子井戸を作る技術」だけでなく、量子井戸が生む利得を、SCHで望ましい光モードへ変え、DFBとBHを通じて実用的な単一波長レーザーへ仕上げる技術にある","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad7bd3d0-27dc-4355-b203-97622e82a1f0","kind":"paragraph","order":645,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"ということです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e718895-d863-4a25-afab-22f615d15e5d","kind":"paragraph","order":646,"section_id":"sec_a48a5863-2363-4a22-a810-be2eeeee487b","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本のMQW・SCH・DFBレーザー研究は、どのように企業へつながったのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb8d8325-b19c-4a8e-96d7-a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1．末松安晴――光通信に必要な「一つの波長」を作る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_38c92ffd-52b0-44dd-a246-b1b93c40b593","kind":"paragraph","order":651,"section_id":"sec_3cb1e30f-f42e-40cf-8995-c4e6b88070ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本の長波長単一モードレーザー研究を語るうえで、旧東京工業大学の末松安晴氏は中心的な存在である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cdae2fe8-6478-46e5-b19b-1ac5c1b995eb","kind":"paragraph","order":652,"section_id":"sec_3cb1e30f-f42e-40cf-8995-c4e6b88070ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"末松氏らの研究グループは、1978年に長波長DBRレーザー、1980年に高速直接変調中でも単一モードを維持するレーザー、1983年には位相シフトDFBレーザーと波長可変半導体レーザーを実現した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b00f5510-e977-4684-9e4c-08e88192017c","kind":"paragraph","order":653,"section_id":"sec_3cb1e30f-f42e-40cf-8995-c4e6b88070ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"この研究の重要性は、レーザーを単に発光させたことではない。光ファイバー通信で使えるように、発振する波長を一つに絞り、温度や変調条件が変わっても安定させたことにある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_16bde13a-da20-42f5-beea-bc07196a6d2f","kind":"paragraph","order":654,"section_id":"sec_3cb1e30f-f42e-40cf-8995-c4e6b88070ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"通常の一様なDFB格子では、ブラッグ波長の両側に二つの発振候補が現れ、モード競合が起きやすい。格子中央に光学的な位相変化を設けると、ストップバンド中央に一つの欠陥モードを作ることができる。これがλ/4位相シフトDFBの基本である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a0abe8b9-fed3-497e-96fe-351d5b3436fb","kind":"paragraph","order":655,"section_id":"sec_3cb1e30f-f42e-40cf-8995-c4e6b88070ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"この成果は量子井戸そのものの研究ではなく、DFB格子と共振器による縦モード制御の研究である。しかし、MQWが広い波長範囲で光利得を作っても、共振器が一つの波長を選択できなければ、WDMや長距離通信に適した光源にはならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_11708fa2-dd73-4b7d-9bd2-5e714e9619fb","kind":"paragraph","order":656,"section_id":"sec_3cb1e30f-f42e-40cf-8995-c4e6b88070ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"役割を分けると、次のようになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e62a3c05-9351-438a-b213-a61ea434a6f5","kind":"paragraph","order":657,"section_id":"sec_3cb1e30f-f42e-40cf-8995-c4e6b88070ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQW活性層が光を発生し、増幅する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d36c574-2dda-4547-a275-a5559b61e105","kind":"paragraph","order":658,"section_id":"sec_3cb1e30f-f42e-40cf-8995-c4e6b88070ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"SCHが光モードの形と広がりを決める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3e59d487-9b41-4d79-aaa0-bcdf9b8171ae","kind":"paragraph","order":659,"section_id":"sec_3cb1e30f-f42e-40cf-8995-c4e6b88070ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB格子が発振可能な波長を絞る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1b8b8f18-5cd5-4235-b7d0-886f54b755cb","kind":"paragraph","order":660,"section_id":"sec_3cb1e30f-f42e-40cf-8995-c4e6b88070ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"位相シフトが競合する縦モードから一つを選ぶ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41839102-4a28-4a4d-a4a4-6194a7b4c5a2","kind":"paragraph","order":661,"section_id":"sec_3cb1e30f-f42e-40cf-8995-c4e6b88070ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"末松氏の研究は、後のNTT、KDD、NEC、富士通、日立、三菱電機、古河電工、住友電工などによる長波長DFBレーザー開発の基礎となった。ただし、これは特定企業一社への単純な技術移転ではない。大学で確立された基本概念が論文、人材、共同研究、学会活動を通じて産業全体へ広がった例と見るべきである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_70f42576-4171-400f-a20b-9fb512360959","kind":"heading","order":662,"section_id":"sec_5e6f357d-9a74-45f5-bbd4-fe03aeb457d5","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜末松安晴と単一波長DFB","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6c72b614-374d-43e0-95e1-2bc29318ba81","kind":"figure","order":663,"section_id":"sec_5e6f357d-9a74-45f5-bbd4-fe03aeb457d5","character_id":null,"markdown":"![末松安晴と単一波長DFB 01](/media/0d845ee6af65ae3ad5badbc1d66bd4b98ff8b6ec5af6f985174b2123841ae4e6-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a4f7eb97-dfaa-4769-9a6f-06902dceec73","kind":"heading","order":664,"section_id":"sec_a2068e16-5ba2-4efa-add7-b506f0dffcde","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 2．荒川泰彦・榊裕之――量子井戸から量子ドットへ続く活性層研究","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_382a9360-f33c-4419-b62c-9ffa0667df0f","kind":"paragraph","order":665,"section_id":"sec_a2068e16-5ba2-4efa-add7-b506f0dffcde","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB格子が発振波長を選ぶ技術だとすれば、量子井戸研究はレーザーがどのように光利得を作るかを設計する技術である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f939d990-81f1-4816-8d4d-6e6c2b2c2f0f","kind":"paragraph","order":666,"section_id":"sec_a2068e16-5ba2-4efa-add7-b506f0dffcde","character_id":null,"markdown":"荒川泰彦氏と榊裕之氏は1982年、電子と正孔を活性層内で低次元化した場合に、レーザーのしきい値や温度特性がどのように変化するかを理論的に示した。この研究は量子ドットレーザーの出発点として知られるが、量子井戸レーザーの理解にも大きな影響を与えた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b3e9bac4-0135-49fd-95a1-9b0c222661bb","kind":"paragraph","order":667,"section_id":"sec_a2068e16-5ba2-4efa-add7-b506f0dffcde","character_id":null,"markdown":"通常のバルク活性層では、電子は三次元的に運動できる。量子井戸では一方向の運動が制限され、量子細線では二方向、量子ドットでは三方向すべてが制限される。閉じ込める次元が増えるほど電子状態密度の形が変わり、しきい値電流、微分利得、温度依存性を改善できる可能性が生まれる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_107ecae7-6da8-4962-a66d-b5bd0082bb95","kind":"paragraph","order":668,"section_id":"sec_a2068e16-5ba2-4efa-add7-b506f0dffcde","character_id":null,"markdown":"この理論は、MQW設計で重要となる、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_54f43ae4-3257-4e8d-9d32-c5aa2c7c9017","kind":"paragraph","order":669,"section_id":"sec_a2068e16-5ba2-4efa-add7-b506f0dffcde","character_id":null,"markdown":"井戸厚","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f5503b7c-4545-42cd-801a-6d1f8a29b8e4","kind":"paragraph","order":670,"section_id":"sec_a2068e16-5ba2-4efa-add7-b506f0dffcde","character_id":null,"markdown":"井戸数","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8b2696a-57e6-4aef-a25c-c29be0a2669d","kind":"paragraph","order":671,"section_id":"sec_a2068e16-5ba2-4efa-add7-b506f0dffcde","character_id":null,"markdown":"障壁高さ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a4df065b-b7f4-4e6f-af16-99514e5c8eb0","kind":"paragraph","order":672,"section_id":"sec_a2068e16-5ba2-4efa-add7-b506f0dffcde","character_id":null,"markdown":"歪み","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a6e5bac4-b734-4a79-af83-b77e33254330","kind":"paragraph","order":673,"section_id":"sec_a2068e16-5ba2-4efa-add7-b506f0dffcde","character_id":null,"markdown":"キャリア分布","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_feee1cb6-64ab-43ef-85ca-a816a58897f4","kind":"paragraph","order":674,"section_id":"sec_a2068e16-5ba2-4efa-add7-b506f0dffcde","character_id":null,"markdown":"温度によるキャリア漏れ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_efe3fec8-01e4-4534-978e-ebb9b129ad58","kind":"paragraph","order":675,"section_id":"sec_a2068e16-5ba2-4efa-add7-b506f0dffcde","character_id":null,"markdown":"を物理的に理解する基盤となった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dc2788a9-e946-499d-849f-72520fef04d8","kind":"paragraph","order":676,"section_id":"sec_a2068e16-5ba2-4efa-add7-b506f0dffcde","character_id":null,"markdown":"荒川氏らの研究は、その後、富士通研究所との共同研究へ進んだ。大学側が低次元量子構造の理論とデバイス原理を担い、富士通研究所が結晶成長、素子設計、信頼性、量産技術を発展させた。その成果を事業化する企業としてQDレーザが設立され、広い温度範囲で動作する通信用量子ドットレーザーの量産へつながった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0b9a2a02-1820-41d4-ad0d-35388bc97ce0","kind":"paragraph","order":677,"section_id":"sec_a2068e16-5ba2-4efa-add7-b506f0dffcde","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは日本の光半導体研究における、最も分かりやすい産学連携の一つである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd03e5f0-0f22-45db-9a72-3def751e405c","kind":"paragraph","order":678,"section_id":"sec_a2068e16-5ba2-4efa-add7-b506f0dffcde","character_id":null,"markdown":"東京大学の量子構造理論\n        ↓\n富士通研究所との実用化研究\n        ↓\n量子ドットレーザーの試作・信頼性評価\n        ↓\nQDレーザ設立\n        ↓\n通信用レーザーとして量産","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0daac7c-46a4-484e-9a38-567efbf66c97","kind":"paragraph","order":679,"section_id":"sec_a2068e16-5ba2-4efa-add7-b506f0dffcde","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQW型DFBレーザーと量子ドットレーザーは同一ではないが、電子と正孔を狭い領域へ閉じ込め、状態密度を制御し、温度特性と利得を改善するという研究思想は共通している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ac1a677-3404-42e2-b723-97c63a17b95f","kind":"heading","order":680,"section_id":"sec_a3208fbb-32c8-4bf2-85a2-f62e9136e3bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜量子井戸から量子ドットへの系譜","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c414092b-8e6f-4848-afa3-9b1af1ff2344","kind":"figure","order":681,"section_id":"sec_a3208fbb-32c8-4bf2-85a2-f62e9136e3bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"![量子井戸から量子ドットへの系譜 01](/media/d6126da80450c0f0c3509f31e3c03dc0937837dfa8cfaee02824038afccba8c3-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c1c6eb1d-bc6d-482c-ba3b-e38c9de1f789","kind":"heading","order":682,"section_id":"sec_be6c8b32-441e-4433-8e6a-f423f1f12a9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 3．荒井滋久・西山伸彦――SCHと光モードを再設計した膜型レーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_873381e2-c21b-4575-9125-b29801d78f79","kind":"paragraph","order":683,"section_id":"sec_be6c8b32-441e-4433-8e6a-f423f1f12a9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"旧東京工業大学の荒井滋久氏、西山伸彦氏らの研究系統は、InP系量子井戸、DFB・DBR共振器、微細格子、結晶再成長、III-V／Si異種集積を結び付けてきた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f9fe7f08-825d-466a-bc28-2a21b0928171","kind":"paragraph","order":684,"section_id":"sec_be6c8b32-441e-4433-8e6a-f423f1f12a9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"特に重要なのが膜型InPレーザーである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f1b1632-6029-4004-b12a-f18d14bb1868","kind":"paragraph","order":685,"section_id":"sec_be6c8b32-441e-4433-8e6a-f423f1f12a9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来型InPレーザーでは、MQWの上下にSCH層と厚いInPクラッドを配置し、屈折率差によって光を閉じ込める。膜型レーザーでは、MQWを含むIII-V層全体を薄膜化し、その周囲にSiO₂などの低屈折率材料を配置する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_329c0dab-c4fa-49ca-8435-aff4a3bc2c7d","kind":"paragraph","order":686,"section_id":"sec_be6c8b32-441e-4433-8e6a-f423f1f12a9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"III-V半導体とSiO₂の屈折率差は大きいため、薄いレーザー膜の内部へ光を強く閉じ込めることができる。これにより、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5aa691f-8381-491c-b76f-49aacbcd0282","kind":"paragraph","order":687,"section_id":"sec_be6c8b32-441e-4433-8e6a-f423f1f12a9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"活性体積の縮小","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_522df20f-91d5-46cd-85e5-6d4f04f11ae8","kind":"paragraph","order":688,"section_id":"sec_be6c8b32-441e-4433-8e6a-f423f1f12a9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"低しきい値電流","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7fdb7ff-2928-4baa-a8a5-4247ad14e01b","kind":"paragraph","order":689,"section_id":"sec_be6c8b32-441e-4433-8e6a-f423f1f12a9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"小型共振器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1df45ff7-160f-48af-a636-7b40ea8cd841","kind":"paragraph","order":690,"section_id":"sec_be6c8b32-441e-4433-8e6a-f423f1f12a9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"高い変調効率","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_124a1b38-f165-4cbc-93d5-19bf604d8609","kind":"paragraph","order":691,"section_id":"sec_be6c8b32-441e-4433-8e6a-f423f1f12a9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコン導波路との結合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_085b94e1-82ae-4de4-8df4-5fc743e48f71","kind":"paragraph","order":692,"section_id":"sec_be6c8b32-441e-4433-8e6a-f423f1f12a9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"が可能になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_40d96cb5-89e0-424e-ba0c-bb0d545c3425","kind":"paragraph","order":693,"section_id":"sec_be6c8b32-441e-4433-8e6a-f423f1f12a9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"この研究は、単にSCH層を厚くする、薄くするという改良ではない。レーザー膜、低屈折率クラッド、シリコン導波路を一つの光学系として設計し、光モードそのものを作り直す研究である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8100f63b-1d37-4850-a15c-9d0b47d299a1","kind":"paragraph","order":694,"section_id":"sec_be6c8b32-441e-4433-8e6a-f423f1f12a9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"荒井・西山系の研究と、後述するNTTの膜型InPレーザー研究は技術領域が非常に近い。ただし、個々の技術について大学からNTTへ一方向に移転したと単純化するのは適切ではない。大学と企業研究所がそれぞれ低消費電力レーザー、異種材料集積、微細共振器という共通課題を追い、学会や共同研究を通じて相互に発展させた研究生態系と見る方が正確である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b77e6d69-5d8e-4b9a-b36f-28d81003055b","kind":"heading","order":695,"section_id":"sec_20aa490a-997d-46ca-98e0-d775f98a7ae3","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜膜型レーザーとSCH再設計","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eafcbe21-fec1-4a61-8c14-d0b125ce22ea","kind":"figure","order":696,"section_id":"sec_20aa490a-997d-46ca-98e0-d775f98a7ae3","character_id":null,"markdown":"![膜型レーザーとSCH再設計 01](/media/ebe83c7c325b65cf4bc61490ccf54402d2f0592ca9f82e3751ed35f5b711c2a5-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e859b606-9b05-45c3-b676-f3708c77bb73","kind":"heading","order":697,"section_id":"sec_51b92695-fdac-41b2-88f7-a079864fe1b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 4．小山二三夫とNTT――共振器でレーザーの速度限界を超える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6bf03879-ddeb-4f81-8ee8-cbdb9cd6bf65","kind":"paragraph","order":698,"section_id":"sec_51b92695-fdac-41b2-88f7-a079864fe1b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"小山二三夫氏はVCSEL研究で著名だが、NTTとの共同研究では、InP系膜型レーザーの超高速直接変調にも取り組んだ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4234c1c4-75a1-4c2a-8038-b097e6a5ca13","kind":"paragraph","order":699,"section_id":"sec_51b92695-fdac-41b2-88f7-a079864fe1b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"半導体レーザーの直接変調速度は、通常、電子と正孔の応答、光子寿命、緩和振動周波数などによって制限される。量子井戸の微分利得を高めるだけでは、速度向上に限界がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_647be2d2-74f9-4423-87ff-26c3007c3e4c","kind":"paragraph","order":700,"section_id":"sec_51b92695-fdac-41b2-88f7-a079864fe1b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこで使われたのが、膜型レーザー、外部光帰還、フォトン・フォトン共鳴の組合せである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c6445e45-123d-4888-91d6-c72395c9f77f","kind":"paragraph","order":701,"section_id":"sec_51b92695-fdac-41b2-88f7-a079864fe1b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"高熱伝導のSiC基板上へInP系膜型レーザーを形成し、外部共振器から適切な光帰還を与えることで、新たな共振ピークを作り、変調帯域を拡大した。この研究では、100GHzを超える3dB変調帯域と256Gbit/s PAM4伝送が示された。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_64fd36df-6157-48bf-b784-36b37d5020cd","kind":"paragraph","order":702,"section_id":"sec_51b92695-fdac-41b2-88f7-a079864fe1b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"この成果の意味は、MQW活性層だけを改良したのではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e851c652-cfee-47c2-9767-1de4b1a97b5e","kind":"paragraph","order":703,"section_id":"sec_51b92695-fdac-41b2-88f7-a079864fe1b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQWが作る利得","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0fe0b93-f642-4e8a-83e1-c2e4b4d079c8","kind":"paragraph","order":704,"section_id":"sec_51b92695-fdac-41b2-88f7-a079864fe1b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"SCH・薄膜構造による光閉じ込め","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_149ebfa9-75fc-44c0-901e-11e1826027ef","kind":"paragraph","order":705,"section_id":"sec_51b92695-fdac-41b2-88f7-a079864fe1b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"SiC基板による放熱","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4cc53b61-dd3c-4c14-b553-9d8b62bc913b","kind":"paragraph","order":706,"section_id":"sec_51b92695-fdac-41b2-88f7-a079864fe1b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"外部共振器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_438d91f2-83bb-4e18-aed8-8473243b48ce","kind":"paragraph","order":707,"section_id":"sec_51b92695-fdac-41b2-88f7-a079864fe1b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"光帰還","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_68329d5b-38a5-496b-b7fc-f41787df8179","kind":"paragraph","order":708,"section_id":"sec_51b92695-fdac-41b2-88f7-a079864fe1b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"高速駆動回路","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0780367e-33eb-4b6a-bbf5-e0f8f4bf70d0","kind":"paragraph","order":709,"section_id":"sec_51b92695-fdac-41b2-88f7-a079864fe1b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"を一体設計したことにある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b464a191-f5dc-441c-94b7-c9b87d9cd956","kind":"paragraph","order":710,"section_id":"sec_51b92695-fdac-41b2-88f7-a079864fe1b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"大学側はレーザー物理、共振器、光モード制御を担い、NTT側はInP膜型デバイス、異種材料接合、電極、光伝送評価を統合した。これは、大学と企業研究所の役割分担が明確に現れた事例である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_486ab5f5-569e-4f70-98f2-8e2d883e5d26","kind":"heading","order":711,"section_id":"sec_17b94f16-03a9-4041-b12d-80045df75ad2","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜共振器による高速化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d4d543bf-edbe-4d23-b8a6-14f92f070030","kind":"figure","order":712,"section_id":"sec_17b94f16-03a9-4041-b12d-80045df75ad2","character_id":null,"markdown":"![共振器による高速化 01](/media/05822a339d2f8f7f1c723f75470d63922dbf9fbcf666b39a5c46d8f4f5b25bc0-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93ea2a0a-45a6-4884-a12f-7982f47b5212","kind":"heading","order":713,"section_id":"sec_96c25abb-21d6-461e-9e1d-c2c3ed35cbaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 5．松尾慎治・武田浩司ら――NTTの膜型InPレーザーと光電融合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a98082cd-701b-4982-82f4-db7eb9f1256f","kind":"paragraph","order":714,"section_id":"sec_96c25abb-21d6-461e-9e1d-c2c3ed35cbaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"NTTでは、松尾慎治氏、武田浩司氏、柿塚高明氏、藤井拓郎氏、仁志英俊氏らが、InP系膜型レーザーとシリコンフォトニクスの集積を進めてきた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2e34c0b5-0788-4088-ad51-3c66b8cd07ab","kind":"paragraph","order":715,"section_id":"sec_96c25abb-21d6-461e-9e1d-c2c3ed35cbaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"代表的な膜型DFBレーザーでは、InGaAsP量子井戸を含む非常に薄いIII-V膜をSiO₂／Si基板へ接合し、横方向から電流を注入する。活性領域をエッチングした後、InPを再成長して埋め込むBH構造も使われる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bcd3c307-145f-49d1-b2d4-a2a5ad45e356","kind":"paragraph","order":716,"section_id":"sec_96c25abb-21d6-461e-9e1d-c2c3ed35cbaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"この構造では、従来型InPレーザーより光閉じ込めを強くできるため、活性体積としきい値電流を小さくできる。NTTは0.9mAのしきい値電流、25.8Gbit/s直接変調、171fJ/bitという低エネルギー動作を示してきた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a497a3da-a401-4e4a-8ca2-59cfd8d30608","kind":"paragraph","order":717,"section_id":"sec_96c25abb-21d6-461e-9e1d-c2c3ed35cbaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらに、シリコン導波路とのテーパー結合、MZMやEA変調器との集積、マイクロトランスファープリントなどへ研究を広げている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_121363ac-e7c4-44cc-81d4-82036a86b787","kind":"paragraph","order":718,"section_id":"sec_96c25abb-21d6-461e-9e1d-c2c3ed35cbaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここでは、SCHはレーザー内部だけの層ではなくなっている。III-V側の光モードを徐々にシリコン導波路へ移すため、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_87b06464-3251-47f7-82e2-e623c895cafe","kind":"paragraph","order":719,"section_id":"sec_96c25abb-21d6-461e-9e1d-c2c3ed35cbaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"III-V膜厚","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd69e08a-89aa-487a-938a-4780e37d6bcb","kind":"paragraph","order":720,"section_id":"sec_96c25abb-21d6-461e-9e1d-c2c3ed35cbaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"SCHの屈折率","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f06cdff-b944-425e-a8a9-e509bd1a7c2b","kind":"paragraph","order":721,"section_id":"sec_96c25abb-21d6-461e-9e1d-c2c3ed35cbaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコン導波路幅","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_97fa18b0-f1fa-4a47-a2dc-50a02a79a8ad","kind":"paragraph","order":722,"section_id":"sec_96c25abb-21d6-461e-9e1d-c2c3ed35cbaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"テーパー形状","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e4aaf13c-f8be-43c1-ac81-5d164550cd14","kind":"paragraph","order":723,"section_id":"sec_96c25abb-21d6-461e-9e1d-c2c3ed35cbaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"接合層厚","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5ee732b-c54f-45b5-854b-d0124cc1fc98","kind":"paragraph","order":724,"section_id":"sec_96c25abb-21d6-461e-9e1d-c2c3ed35cbaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"位置ずれ許容度","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eb0e199f-22c4-40dc-a277-05a5ae9eed8b","kind":"paragraph","order":725,"section_id":"sec_96c25abb-21d6-461e-9e1d-c2c3ed35cbaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"まで含めて設計する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a67f64fe-a573-40c8-a785-ed14e6abbb9a","kind":"paragraph","order":726,"section_id":"sec_96c25abb-21d6-461e-9e1d-c2c3ed35cbaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"NTTの研究は企業との連携ではなく、NTT自身の企業研究である。その目的は、通信ネットワーク、データセンター接続、IOWN、光電融合、低消費電力光I/Oへ直結している。材料研究から伝送実験までを一社内で接続できることが、NTTの大きな強みである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e057b8ea-79c8-42b3-bcdf-5b0dd9136f03","kind":"heading","order":727,"section_id":"sec_29341310-c104-434f-913e-3ab398144711","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜膜型InPレーザーと光電融合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef1e0531-a22a-4358-b545-a20717e2ac09","kind":"figure","order":728,"section_id":"sec_29341310-c104-434f-913e-3ab398144711","character_id":null,"markdown":"![膜型InPレーザーと光電融合 01](/media/888954971d616d56d7d0dfa5cd06ee024121a9affb8b8f657d46d7e98cade072-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2df9bd2c-bdf3-4901-b709-838e44007bd2","kind":"heading","order":729,"section_id":"sec_ac4793c9-5bdd-40a6-ac36-16e17f7db99e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 6．古河電工――高出力CW-DFBを実際の外部光源へ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f04a470b-e9f3-43f0-8dbb-f144319311fa","kind":"paragraph","order":730,"section_id":"sec_ac4793c9-5bdd-40a6-ac36-16e17f7db99e","character_id":null,"markdown":"古河電工では、笠川明彦氏、高木圭司氏、木瀬智文氏、丸山一臣氏らが、高出力CW-DFBレーザーを研究してきた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd7b08f6-8112-491a-b312-a45f75fe3838","kind":"paragraph","order":731,"section_id":"sec_ac4793c9-5bdd-40a6-ac36-16e17f7db99e","character_id":null,"markdown":"高出力CWレーザーでは、MQWとの光の重なりを強くすればよいわけではない。光閉じ込め係数が高すぎると、MQW内部の光密度が上昇し、利得飽和、発熱、空間的ホールバーニング、端面損傷が起きやすくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_04293aab-7b99-4693-aea5-eabecff352b0","kind":"paragraph","order":732,"section_id":"sec_ac4793c9-5bdd-40a6-ac36-16e17f7db99e","character_id":null,"markdown":"古河電工は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_40fdff68-9d9c-42ee-8caf-b7437a7c396e","kind":"paragraph","order":733,"section_id":"sec_ac4793c9-5bdd-40a6-ac36-16e17f7db99e","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQW光閉じ込め係数","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9e6831a-25e2-441c-adf6-a53bc57928af","kind":"paragraph","order":734,"section_id":"sec_ac4793c9-5bdd-40a6-ac36-16e17f7db99e","character_id":null,"markdown":"SCH厚","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ca379617-a504-4d6e-9749-7bea9edbd931","kind":"paragraph","order":735,"section_id":"sec_ac4793c9-5bdd-40a6-ac36-16e17f7db99e","character_id":null,"markdown":"共振器長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad423241-4dcc-4e92-a97c-35e56b885b15","kind":"paragraph","order":736,"section_id":"sec_ac4793c9-5bdd-40a6-ac36-16e17f7db99e","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB結合係数","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b291816d-6098-4ccc-a80f-047da824940b","kind":"paragraph","order":737,"section_id":"sec_ac4793c9-5bdd-40a6-ac36-16e17f7db99e","character_id":null,"markdown":"端面反射率","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_03c3057e-5a4d-4b10-8614-1c71bbe7bfe2","kind":"paragraph","order":738,"section_id":"sec_ac4793c9-5bdd-40a6-ac36-16e17f7db99e","character_id":null,"markdown":"を同時に最適化した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c1c3e76-4b89-4864-94bb-ace6be6d9bb5","kind":"paragraph","order":739,"section_id":"sec_ac4793c9-5bdd-40a6-ac36-16e17f7db99e","character_id":null,"markdown":"過去の研究では、S～L帯で40mW級の出力、最大175mWの高出力、狭線幅動作などを示している。重要なのは、これらをレーザーダイの研究で終わらせず、レンズ、ファイバー、温度制御、波長監視を含むレーザーモジュールへ展開したことだ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_09a5346c-69e7-4362-a8f8-5f0033fe46f2","kind":"paragraph","order":740,"section_id":"sec_ac4793c9-5bdd-40a6-ac36-16e17f7db99e","character_id":null,"markdown":"この技術系譜は現在、CPOやシリコンフォトニクスへ連続光を供給する外部レーザー源へつながっている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9adae7ac-8049-45ee-84df-7e3eb816347a","kind":"paragraph","order":741,"section_id":"sec_ac4793c9-5bdd-40a6-ac36-16e17f7db99e","character_id":null,"markdown":"古河電工はレーザーチップだけでなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b4071229-5ccc-4ede-b72d-0bd7bb7324be","kind":"paragraph","order":742,"section_id":"sec_ac4793c9-5bdd-40a6-ac36-16e17f7db99e","character_id":null,"markdown":"光ファイバー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_943b60e3-af95-46be-819a-301fa8e7fd84","kind":"paragraph","order":743,"section_id":"sec_ac4793c9-5bdd-40a6-ac36-16e17f7db99e","character_id":null,"markdown":"コネクター","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fc70c95d-8bff-42d1-9b37-a07100425f75","kind":"paragraph","order":744,"section_id":"sec_ac4793c9-5bdd-40a6-ac36-16e17f7db99e","character_id":null,"markdown":"レンズ結合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_17ccf21f-ae3a-4713-8840-15fcc16ffc3d","kind":"paragraph","order":745,"section_id":"sec_ac4793c9-5bdd-40a6-ac36-16e17f7db99e","character_id":null,"markdown":"外部レーザー源","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b43053d4-eb86-4970-aad1-cd85a8a1cf11","kind":"paragraph","order":746,"section_id":"sec_ac4793c9-5bdd-40a6-ac36-16e17f7db99e","character_id":null,"markdown":"放熱","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ddc75fd-ee8b-4e2c-b8b2-5b8c22cba1c9","kind":"paragraph","order":747,"section_id":"sec_ac4793c9-5bdd-40a6-ac36-16e17f7db99e","character_id":null,"markdown":"光実装","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eb9ad0fe-cf59-4521-830a-3d58e5a673a8","kind":"paragraph","order":748,"section_id":"sec_ac4793c9-5bdd-40a6-ac36-16e17f7db99e","character_id":null,"markdown":"まで扱う。したがって、MQW・SCH設計を完成光源へ結び付けやすい企業構造を持つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6da80380-fcce-4b85-b8b7-2ba5f0c56913","kind":"heading","order":749,"section_id":"sec_25c077f0-09c3-4947-a8f5-a07e537b8ba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜高出力CW-DFB外部光源","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1befbf72-abaf-4cd5-a3e1-71e86d9c4cb6","kind":"figure","order":750,"section_id":"sec_25c077f0-09c3-4947-a8f5-a07e537b8ba2","character_id":null,"markdown":"![高出力CW-DFB外部光源 01](/media/2f56daa660d40f7eb56c4a3461095d2d89562409df6cdf20eca0dc82e097fdd9-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6e31e032-0255-42f7-9773-9c561c2a8a02","kind":"heading","order":751,"section_id":"sec_056215bd-adf1-4fb3-ad2e-1b4c2395c98b","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 7．住友電工――InP基板からMQW、高出力光源まで","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_300ea26b-d3c1-4133-aca4-933b7fd6a025","kind":"paragraph","order":752,"section_id":"sec_056215bd-adf1-4fb3-ad2e-1b4c2395c98b","character_id":null,"markdown":"住友電工では、八木英樹氏、大西裕氏、小山健二氏、辻幸洋氏らが、AlGaInAs／InP系高速DFBレーザーを開発してきた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf1394f3-522e-404e-9787-196abaad18dd","kind":"paragraph","order":753,"section_id":"sec_056215bd-adf1-4fb3-ad2e-1b4c2395c98b","character_id":null,"markdown":"AlGaInAs MQWは、設計によって電子に対する障壁を高くしやすい。このため高温時に電子が量子井戸から漏れ出すキャリアオーバーフローを抑え、高い微分利得と温度安定性を得やすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f61bc4d7-9073-4fe0-8a29-667c3dbcc6c3","kind":"paragraph","order":754,"section_id":"sec_056215bd-adf1-4fb3-ad2e-1b4c2395c98b","character_id":null,"markdown":"住友電工はAlGaInAs圧縮歪みMQW、DFB格子、p-InP再成長、リッジ導波路、低容量電極を組み合わせ、20GHz超の電気帯域、26Gbit/s直接変調、85℃での無冷却動作などを実現してきた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_136d5567-a65c-425c-aa0f-29e408d775f0","kind":"paragraph","order":755,"section_id":"sec_056215bd-adf1-4fb3-ad2e-1b4c2395c98b","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらに青山康之祐氏、井上大輔氏、藤原直樹氏らの研究では、DFBレーザー部とワイドストライプSOA部を集積し、45℃で400mW超、電力変換効率25％のCPO向け光源を実現している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6fd70dfa-96e7-4043-a43e-d8a4fc39d058","kind":"paragraph","order":756,"section_id":"sec_056215bd-adf1-4fb3-ad2e-1b4c2395c98b","character_id":null,"markdown":"この構造では役割を分離している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5f73cab-328b-4728-aaa0-79d5a1cbdd0f","kind":"paragraph","order":757,"section_id":"sec_056215bd-adf1-4fb3-ad2e-1b4c2395c98b","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB部\n→ 狭線幅・単一波長・波長安定性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8557b941-019f-4efa-9285-602802523029","kind":"paragraph","order":758,"section_id":"sec_056215bd-adf1-4fb3-ad2e-1b4c2395c98b","character_id":null,"markdown":"テーパー部\n→ 光モードを徐々に拡大","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3ae5f5b-89fa-4899-9d2c-a04073ac4a17","kind":"paragraph","order":759,"section_id":"sec_056215bd-adf1-4fb3-ad2e-1b4c2395c98b","character_id":null,"markdown":"SOA部\n→ 光を高出力まで増幅","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5c55f0c-c25f-4719-a948-9c02d5881474","kind":"paragraph","order":760,"section_id":"sec_056215bd-adf1-4fb3-ad2e-1b4c2395c98b","character_id":null,"markdown":"住友電工の特徴は、InP基板、エピタキシャル成長、レーザーダイ、光モジュール、光ファイバーを同じ企業グループ内に持つことにある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9ed25b3c-7748-440a-a105-4bd7fe15408b","kind":"paragraph","order":761,"section_id":"sec_056215bd-adf1-4fb3-ad2e-1b4c2395c98b","character_id":null,"markdown":"基板の結晶欠陥やドーピングから、MQW、SCH、DFB、実装、ファイバー接続までを遡って最適化できる。これは、研究成果を製品へ移すうえで大きな優位性となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d1765eb-253a-488c-afa2-03a744163d38","kind":"heading","order":762,"section_id":"sec_824bd107-80b6-475a-a393-f0c47481fef0","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜InP基板から高出力光源まで","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_92db319e-c7a0-4481-b3f1-6ea87d7d8532","kind":"figure","order":763,"section_id":"sec_824bd107-80b6-475a-a393-f0c47481fef0","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InP基板から高出力光源まで 01](/media/0877505cdbda969b976658dedc6e3f1893601e28084d01e4a102289ecd2ddf87-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8a3ea741-b2f6-4dc0-8dad-8aace4942db9","kind":"heading","order":764,"section_id":"sec_ef536506-d134-4d82-b682-f3a6bcceaed7","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 8．日本の研究と企業連携には四つの形がある","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c842d1c3-27b8-47fa-901f-2c6e1a316eff","kind":"paragraph","order":765,"section_id":"sec_ef536506-d134-4d82-b682-f3a6bcceaed7","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本のInPレーザー研究を整理すると、企業とのつながりは四種類に分けられる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5818de19-8650-4545-8a80-83ddff6761aa","kind":"paragraph","order":766,"section_id":"sec_ef536506-d134-4d82-b682-f3a6bcceaed7","character_id":null,"markdown":"第一は、大学発の基礎技術が産業全体へ広がる形である。末松安晴氏の長波長単一モードレーザーや位相シフトDFBが代表例である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b06a1386-8989-48b0-bad8-c9d143bfb28b","kind":"paragraph","order":767,"section_id":"sec_ef536506-d134-4d82-b682-f3a6bcceaed7","character_id":null,"markdown":"第二は、大学と企業研究所の共同研究である。小山二三夫氏とNTTによる超高速膜型レーザーがこれに当たる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d620cb0-23d0-4aef-a514-791ad595be44","kind":"paragraph","order":768,"section_id":"sec_ef536506-d134-4d82-b682-f3a6bcceaed7","character_id":null,"markdown":"第三は、大学研究からスタートアップへ進む形である。荒川泰彦氏、榊裕之氏、富士通研究所、QDレーザの系譜が代表的である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fc2527ca-e6e8-4ac5-908e-b7e00ed0792e","kind":"paragraph","order":769,"section_id":"sec_ef536506-d134-4d82-b682-f3a6bcceaed7","character_id":null,"markdown":"第四は、企業研究所内部の垂直統合である。NTT、古河電工、住友電工は、材料・デバイスから実装・伝送までを社内でつないでいる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9d05279-c777-45fa-bdce-0ff682ae9270","kind":"paragraph","order":770,"section_id":"sec_ef536506-d134-4d82-b682-f3a6bcceaed7","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本の強みは研究者個人ではなく、技術をつなぐ構造にある","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_892f6120-34c6-4d7f-bd68-969196ebdab3","kind":"paragraph","order":771,"section_id":"sec_ef536506-d134-4d82-b682-f3a6bcceaed7","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本のMQW・SCH・DFBレーザー研究は、量子井戸、格子、光モード、再成長、高出力化を別々に発展させただけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21508174-9348-423c-9aa2-834d142c744d","kind":"paragraph","order":772,"section_id":"sec_ef536506-d134-4d82-b682-f3a6bcceaed7","character_id":null,"markdown":"末松安晴氏らが単一波長と位相制御を確立し、荒川泰彦氏と榊裕之氏が量子閉じ込めの理論を示し、荒井滋久氏、西山伸彦氏らが薄膜と光モードを再設計した。小山二三夫氏とNTTは共振器による超高速化を進め、NTTの研究陣はInP膜型レーザーをシリコンフォトニクスへ統合した。古河電工は高出力CW-DFBを外部光源へ仕上げ、住友電工はInP基板から高出力レーザーまでを垂直統合した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1617d1ca-7c25-408d-b17a-d400d60045c0","kind":"paragraph","order":773,"section_id":"sec_ef536506-d134-4d82-b682-f3a6bcceaed7","character_id":null,"markdown":"その研究系譜は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9913c9b4-bfba-4d3f-b1cc-5f546dbfc95d","kind":"paragraph","order":774,"section_id":"sec_ef536506-d134-4d82-b682-f3a6bcceaed7","character_id":null,"markdown":"量子井戸で光利得を作り、SCHで光モードを整え、DFBで波長を選び、BHで電流と熱を管理し、最後にファイバーやシリコン光回路へ光を渡す","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d303ec48-f409-470f-8f39-c291c390f29c","kind":"paragraph","order":775,"section_id":"sec_ef536506-d134-4d82-b682-f3a6bcceaed7","character_id":null,"markdown":"という一つの技術体系を形成している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb223aa7-8573-4782-8129-5f2c3d2a9d25","kind":"paragraph","order":776,"section_id":"sec_ef536506-d134-4d82-b682-f3a6bcceaed7","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI時代のCPOやOptical I/Oで再評価されているのは、個別の古い発明だけではない。大学、通信事業者、材料企業、光部品メーカーが数十年間かけて作り上げた、日本の光半導体研究・製造ネットワークそのものである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d335dd21-cff9-4ede-8393-b0bd55cd2ece","kind":"heading","order":777,"section_id":"sec_ce3c6d92-e7bb-4667-b682-acc67988a0ad","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜日本の研究・企業連携","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fdd92c45-5bdc-4701-9035-cac3fe4b408e","kind":"figure","order":778,"section_id":"sec_ce3c6d92-e7bb-4667-b682-acc67988a0ad","character_id":null,"markdown":"![日本の研究・企業連携 01](/media/53cfda9d8a532adacd6f4d0e749d931ce364492ec51ceb1779948cd1ef43eb52-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_75bb5b13-4b0f-49fe-a58c-0bed3e5bd359","kind":"figure","order":779,"section_id":"sec_ce3c6d92-e7bb-4667-b682-acc67988a0ad","character_id":null,"markdown":"![日本の研究・企業連携 02](/media/5b5168ecf2e5735fc6ef4f3042f8b247a6531ef597189f0c7b9673502a3fced9-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_70a47acc-e11a-4ee8-bbdc-38feb1e438d9","kind":"heading","order":780,"section_id":"sec_aa13b20d-d41d-4788-b50a-eaeb888edf9b","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 5．製造工程――多層ケーキを作った後に、切って埋めて焼き直す","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb85c165-6d60-41c0-b599-cf8c33b6e4dc","kind":"paragraph","order":781,"section_id":"sec_aa13b20d-d41d-4788-b50a-eaeb888edf9b","character_id":null,"markdown":"CW DFB型InPレーザーの代表的な工程は次のようになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c13609ed-5bc9-48d1-a0e2-dde334e9fe85","kind":"heading","order":782,"section_id":"sec_4995cfab-75f3-455f-8d33-4dd4a7548a77","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜InPレーザーの製造・実装・検査工程","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d3aefc22-323f-4e52-8586-cdedac0cd196","kind":"figure","order":783,"section_id":"sec_4995cfab-75f3-455f-8d33-4dd4a7548a77","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InPレーザーの製造・実装・検査工程 01](/media/9d4b4d1c9b403ff4db800f2b84b5b9854c094ab8651235e67ae4d70aba2ec6f2-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5f7e1f37-897e-4577-9b6c-657d2b68ac37","kind":"figure","order":784,"section_id":"sec_4995cfab-75f3-455f-8d33-4dd4a7548a77","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InPレーザーの製造・実装・検査工程 02](/media/1b4e918013afd19108bdbccabda178c1b7caab9d63dd427741a1128d91053f32-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3bbb418a-2be5-47e1-b9b2-c13929227069","kind":"figure","order":785,"section_id":"sec_4995cfab-75f3-455f-8d33-4dd4a7548a77","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InPレーザーの製造・実装・検査工程 03](/media/213b296cd913419924b82d304691de11fbfa4ab217e55080102a52d1a79d2473-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a349e8ca-fe4e-48e6-90f6-a1d126736bc3","kind":"figure","order":786,"section_id":"sec_4995cfab-75f3-455f-8d33-4dd4a7548a77","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InPレーザーの製造・実装・検査工程 04](/media/5a5129b0a820a78ae1e763a385192537feae05529aad0aee2c3cd0337744d93b-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ce35322-f595-4997-b1b7-4eceb5816473","kind":"figure","order":787,"section_id":"sec_4995cfab-75f3-455f-8d33-4dd4a7548a77","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InPレーザーの製造・実装・検査工程 05](/media/808fe80fec537c0508c8862fb354332ba6900ee9cef6fb91dc7b75075df284ea-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5373a2ff-4867-4615-bd02-ea46d7061f34","kind":"figure","order":788,"section_id":"sec_4995cfab-75f3-455f-8d33-4dd4a7548a77","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InPレーザーの製造・実装・検査工程 06](/media/0d95eebf528a0e05a028a6424ba3aa472cd9a4ffc31d66a323819d539b4be4c9-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b362167b-510c-4590-af90-845614bc1cff","kind":"figure","order":789,"section_id":"sec_4995cfab-75f3-455f-8d33-4dd4a7548a77","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InPレーザーの製造・実装・検査工程 07](/media/9db6abd3261c487e43f1700f2f7f049b3664b180aa9fb6840207c4c938255070-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01b250df-6575-48ec-a719-1c9923f70a07","kind":"heading","order":790,"section_id":"sec_2f45e9c2-ea12-4d5e-9c9c-6d084b531a70","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 1．InP単結晶・基板製造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_26fb4b5a-1fbf-4935-86ba-a2df1e1008b6","kind":"paragraph","order":791,"section_id":"sec_2f45e9c2-ea12-4d5e-9c9c-6d084b531a70","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0057ae3e-41eb-43c6-ab1d-779e2e93fc03","kind":"heading","order":792,"section_id":"sec_65f9c53c-d97e-408b-bdca-000b6cbb4591","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 2．バッファ、SCH、MQW、格子層をMOCVD成長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c092c4c9-c1d7-4070-be14-71587e35fae0","kind":"paragraph","order":793,"section_id":"sec_65f9c53c-d97e-408b-bdca-000b6cbb4591","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ee6195d4-2b44-476b-8a6b-f88d02cfb219","kind":"heading","order":794,"section_id":"sec_479523ce-f3a9-41f8-979a-b3732f2ea269","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 3．DFB格子をリソグラフィーで形成","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3a2ab34a-8c08-4c1b-af59-76471f13f4cf","kind":"paragraph","order":795,"section_id":"sec_479523ce-f3a9-41f8-979a-b3732f2ea269","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d47090ca-95cb-4351-9b83-b572fe312fae","kind":"heading","order":796,"section_id":"sec_e79edda0-fe8c-44cb-b34c-85c7e68efca4","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 4．格子をエッチング","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5f830fd-537e-4961-8e4a-3ccedca734cb","kind":"paragraph","order":797,"section_id":"sec_e79edda0-fe8c-44cb-b34c-85c7e68efca4","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c631db7-75ce-406d-96f7-4417fe10e0c1","kind":"heading","order":798,"section_id":"sec_de272e42-4c15-4f0b-8ba9-d62ddafb244d","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 5．表面洗浄","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_052a1b49-1baf-44c8-8cef-8415ec3e82ee","kind":"paragraph","order":799,"section_id":"sec_de272e42-4c15-4f0b-8ba9-d62ddafb244d","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b1383a0-9b9f-4563-a832-bc7d1977bc0b","kind":"heading","order":800,"section_id":"sec_dac916e0-3bf3-40f9-9396-980a30892fac","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 6．p-InPクラッドを再成長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_97f34fd9-39a1-4932-9af2-3edcc1face17","kind":"paragraph","order":801,"section_id":"sec_dac916e0-3bf3-40f9-9396-980a30892fac","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_978bc7a9-c826-422c-9235-7f826593fe98","kind":"heading","order":802,"section_id":"sec_61ef00d4-e27e-499a-a68e-166b419b1af8","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 7．リッジまたはBH構造を形成","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_938db8b7-e50c-4f24-b69f-f793f2771834","kind":"paragraph","order":803,"section_id":"sec_61ef00d4-e27e-499a-a68e-166b419b1af8","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fcfc8c56-115b-4be8-91d8-90fb38f46812","kind":"heading","order":804,"section_id":"sec_c037c8a1-394e-41b2-8423-57755a7271f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 8．絶縁膜・電極形成","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_60bc9eaf-42b9-4409-a10f-42b4e4e7429e","kind":"paragraph","order":805,"section_id":"sec_c037c8a1-394e-41b2-8423-57755a7271f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_177221d3-4911-4824-bff4-b574502eed4f","kind":"heading","order":806,"section_id":"sec_8126c00d-ddd3-4510-bb88-216514792f77","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 9．ウェハーをバーへ分割","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ce9464c0-1402-4b64-912b-b71c6311b874","kind":"paragraph","order":807,"section_id":"sec_8126c00d-ddd3-4510-bb88-216514792f77","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aecb5010-094b-45c8-bd5f-e22fbd88e1dd","kind":"heading","order":808,"section_id":"sec_50990170-a737-44d9-b949-8ed82b4f3b70","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 10．端面形成・反射防止膜","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_97398c93-7723-47af-9135-83e27f042e10","kind":"paragraph","order":809,"section_id":"sec_50990170-a737-44d9-b949-8ed82b4f3b70","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_864ea0cb-452b-4384-9fbb-a8adc4bbd05d","kind":"heading","order":810,"section_id":"sec_0a5deaf4-dafe-4175-9d45-972df443c0ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 11．チップ分割","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_30b6001e-e41f-4940-8516-0863e4dd91ea","kind":"paragraph","order":811,"section_id":"sec_0a5deaf4-dafe-4175-9d45-972df443c0ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41760b57-760f-4efd-8a97-1a7c374138b9","kind":"heading","order":812,"section_id":"sec_c820f6d5-bc6a-468a-b0e8-9251f13441f7","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 12．放熱部材・レンズ・ファイバーへ実装","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_02b9cfba-3b13-4eec-8094-5c0221dbdeae","kind":"paragraph","order":813,"section_id":"sec_c820f6d5-bc6a-468a-b0e8-9251f13441f7","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9fabb31a-59a0-4d65-8840-32b0682fab83","kind":"heading","order":814,"section_id":"sec_8da73e20-51d8-48a2-9dff-0e5888e8175c","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 13．光学検査・バーンイン・顧客認証","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8116110a-84ad-4026-ad32-66bb7eb1c008","kind":"paragraph","order":815,"section_id":"sec_8da73e20-51d8-48a2-9dff-0e5888e8175c","character_id":null,"markdown":"特に厄介なのは、一度結晶成長を止めて格子や導波路を加工し、その後もう一度結晶を成長させることだ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fc142a37-2792-4580-8147-da0aaea9c149","kind":"paragraph","order":816,"section_id":"sec_8da73e20-51d8-48a2-9dff-0e5888e8175c","character_id":null,"markdown":"再成長前の表面に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b7659a3-3495-46a1-a5cd-b1855a68da0f","kind":"paragraph","order":817,"section_id":"sec_8da73e20-51d8-48a2-9dff-0e5888e8175c","character_id":null,"markdown":"酸化膜","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_977bb0a5-41bf-4d77-a69e-735d1bd7a293","kind":"paragraph","order":818,"section_id":"sec_8da73e20-51d8-48a2-9dff-0e5888e8175c","character_id":null,"markdown":"有機物","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2cbc23fe-0d6e-45e3-973e-0778004dbb0f","kind":"paragraph","order":819,"section_id":"sec_8da73e20-51d8-48a2-9dff-0e5888e8175c","character_id":null,"markdown":"微粒子","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eb8d393f-575b-4754-9286-250fd96cfaae","kind":"paragraph","order":820,"section_id":"sec_8da73e20-51d8-48a2-9dff-0e5888e8175c","character_id":null,"markdown":"エッチング残渣","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e4443e06-0490-4afa-8f61-42197d16cadd","kind":"paragraph","order":821,"section_id":"sec_8da73e20-51d8-48a2-9dff-0e5888e8175c","character_id":null,"markdown":"結晶損傷","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ee1855a-801b-4135-9f8d-e214aabc102d","kind":"paragraph","order":822,"section_id":"sec_8da73e20-51d8-48a2-9dff-0e5888e8175c","character_id":null,"markdown":"が残ると、非発光再結合、電流リーク、光損失、早期故障の原因になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af7ae33d-308b-484f-a787-3f0c5f83b30b","kind":"paragraph","order":823,"section_id":"sec_8da73e20-51d8-48a2-9dff-0e5888e8175c","character_id":null,"markdown":"装置を購入するだけでは解決できず、洗浄条件、リアクター履歴、成長開始温度、原料ガス供給、ドーピング切替えなどのレシピが必要になる。ここに長年の暗黙知が蓄積される。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66886f8c-4f14-4a38-9dd0-4f2099ea1811","kind":"heading","order":824,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 6．なぜ資金を投入してもすぐ増産できないのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5430f22c-dc19-40fe-b778-3deb666285e4","kind":"paragraph","order":825,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"6-1．InPウェハーが小さい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b7970341-c985-443e-996b-97fd9b3ecf2a","kind":"paragraph","order":826,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンの先端半導体では300mm、12インチウェハーが一般的だが、InPレーザーは長く2～4インチ級を中心に生産されてきた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_61bbfc92-2ae2-4fe2-82e1-81f154014a19","kind":"paragraph","order":827,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"4インチと12インチを単純な面積で比べると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0cef5e8b-06f5-4f43-94f5-624077666725","kind":"math","order":828,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\frac{12^2}{4^2}=9}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a42fc545-c9cf-4ff2-aac1-16ba686ef8c0","kind":"paragraph","order":829,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_74db721e-4cb0-4f3f-8d9a-aaace943add2","kind":"paragraph","order":830,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際の取得チップ数は端部損失や歩留まりの影響を受けるが、ウェハー一枚当たりの生産性には大きな差がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_394577b8-180e-46e5-b942-accfe468df1b","kind":"paragraph","order":831,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coherentは米国とスウェーデンで6インチInP能力を立ち上げ、同社試算で従来比4倍の生産能力と約60％のダイコスト削減を見込んでいる。別の製品発表では、米国Sherman工場の拡張により生産能力を従来の約5倍へ引き上げる計画を示している。(Coherent Inc)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5dc2225b-25f1-44e7-84c1-3e10c649a4fe","kind":"paragraph","order":832,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし6インチ化は、単に大きな基板を装置へ入れる作業ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f194ec69-1bf7-49ae-bb3f-5327cf6903d3","kind":"paragraph","order":833,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"温度分布","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a591b989-9ef1-4207-9f41-fd55ad70c459","kind":"paragraph","order":834,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"原料ガスの流れ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fbfeae64-2a38-470b-868e-34c1b3495206","kind":"paragraph","order":835,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"膜厚","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d20eff9-b702-471b-a1a4-e2f04c581779","kind":"paragraph","order":836,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"材料組成","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_29b77ad9-a63c-4a5b-8f41-0f476e52f481","kind":"paragraph","order":837,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"ドーピング濃度","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33c4ef43-da7f-49d2-8283-49bbda04f0c3","kind":"paragraph","order":838,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"ウェハー反り","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_94311b93-3da0-4baa-af4a-824842e1a642","kind":"paragraph","order":839,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"格子寸法","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ba6cdd69-2929-441b-84e0-6642ad4b9c1b","kind":"paragraph","order":840,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"発振波長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6a431aea-22eb-4945-a6e7-43232b1c34ae","kind":"paragraph","order":841,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"をウェハー全体で均一にしなければならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d201dd8b-727c-4713-8558-d179e48eec47","kind":"paragraph","order":842,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"6-2．エピタキシャル成長が難しい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_467d6eb5-02a7-4c34-b965-11569e5a292f","kind":"paragraph","order":843,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQWは、数nmの井戸と障壁を何層も交互に積み重ねる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c1a1b87-6ce0-4d50-8a00-aaf83e39ed6d","kind":"paragraph","order":844,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"わずかな厚さや組成の違いで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d0ea1401-c933-4d98-984d-6a7b0a7fdc76","kind":"paragraph","order":845,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"発振波長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_85a53a40-bd97-483a-a7b5-0571232e1cc9","kind":"paragraph","order":846,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"しきい値電流","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ceffe448-215a-4e75-bef4-0c88a01a6c8e","kind":"paragraph","order":847,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"光出力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_30134b8f-287a-4871-b9e6-1436425440cc","kind":"paragraph","order":848,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"温度特性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_89c588b1-49f6-4953-973e-8d132234f1f6","kind":"paragraph","order":849,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"偏光","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cee52d94-5806-43d0-88f7-7dc826e01c23","kind":"paragraph","order":850,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"寿命","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6729675a-072a-4e20-b306-222669684a72","kind":"paragraph","order":851,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"が変わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b95b1a89-72a0-4a38-a836-8889c68d40cf","kind":"paragraph","order":852,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらにp型・n型ドーパントが隣接層へ拡散すると、電気特性や光学特性が変化する。MOCVD装置の能力に加えて、成長レシピと工程管理が必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_295f84cf-f2c4-4234-bea5-2e6260ce0379","kind":"paragraph","order":853,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"6-3．DFB格子が波長歩留まりを決める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_62678368-55a1-4440-9d27-c28259d6aded","kind":"paragraph","order":854,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"格子周期、深さ、形状、側壁角度が変わると、発振波長と格子結合係数が変わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_75896ec8-f419-4db5-9a90-88f433954d2d","kind":"paragraph","order":855,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザーが発光していても、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f27963d3-6b62-4f33-be49-07079e4022f3","kind":"paragraph","order":856,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"波長が規格外","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8656222e-36dc-41a7-b3b5-b3512d2396b7","kind":"paragraph","order":857,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"サイドモード抑圧比が不足","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b3bf00d-3aef-496f-996e-c82d1abae00a","kind":"paragraph","order":858,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"線幅が広すぎる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9afae4ad-8bdd-4410-8cd4-685d98c0ba5b","kind":"paragraph","order":859,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"出力が不足","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c03f6dc-3ffd-4593-b1f4-cbe7c0539520","kind":"paragraph","order":860,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"温度変化で波長がずれる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b84e32a8-74b7-4b2a-b491-349ffa3864f1","kind":"paragraph","order":861,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"場合は良品として出荷できない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0582bcc4-0ca6-485a-a0ee-4e2012f7c73a","kind":"paragraph","order":862,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりレーザーチップの歩留まりは、単なる「動作するチップ数」ではなく、指定波長ごとの良品数で決まる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d5f02d3-72f4-4476-87ce-1c4277245302","kind":"paragraph","order":863,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"6-4．高出力CWでは熱と寿命が厳しい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0795be8e-ae7e-4ade-a301-8f89e2da9339","kind":"paragraph","order":864,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPO向けレーザーは、研究室で短時間発光すればよいわけではない。数百mW級の光を高温環境で連続出力し、長期間動作する必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b03e3e29-300b-4f48-93b6-182d35fcf9d6","kind":"paragraph","order":865,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"高出力化すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_18b79e22-58bb-4d52-b89a-16de313ad800","kind":"paragraph","order":866,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"接合部温度の上昇","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8b787f3-4430-466d-908d-c1e43773c01e","kind":"paragraph","order":867,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"利得飽和","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2cb0ac21-ca85-4aea-9c5b-8de1e1af7b2a","kind":"paragraph","order":868,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"電流集中","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8345fe43-b287-4f3f-a822-b25ee9b2563f","kind":"paragraph","order":869,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"非放射再結合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2dcbea25-4977-494e-bf15-23d814a667c3","kind":"paragraph","order":870,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"端面損傷","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41f3ef1e-c835-4db1-a8ee-18e302634bf7","kind":"paragraph","order":871,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"波長ドリフト","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bfc6bd7b-d8b7-4531-8bd6-e826adc1ed84","kind":"paragraph","order":872,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"効率低下","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2121dd3e-19dd-426b-af8b-3f67d1f2b247","kind":"paragraph","order":873,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"が起こりやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ac12bca-36b8-4102-a8ab-a5df33dda03b","kind":"paragraph","order":874,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"Lumentumは2026年に、1310nm帯で25℃時1W超、50℃時800mW超、線幅100kHz未満のCPO向けSHPレーザーを発表した。これは高出力だけでなく、波長純度、熱設計、低雑音を同時に成立させる競争が進んでいることを示す。(Lumentum Investor Relations)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3dc7020-98a2-42fa-ad6e-875e253278bc","kind":"paragraph","order":875,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"6-5．後工程が自動化しにくい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e2374774-3319-4457-9cf5-7f53421ed0b1","kind":"paragraph","order":876,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザーチップの後工程には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d3a2fac4-7c25-4dfb-8977-0605f75282f3","kind":"paragraph","order":877,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"へき開による端面形成","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_54757435-4d5d-4a52-bf72-6406705133b0","kind":"paragraph","order":878,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"反射防止膜・高反射膜","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_788f539e-33ba-49b2-9252-092650bac300","kind":"paragraph","order":879,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"サブマウント接合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_001838b9-340c-4b17-b7aa-a2f5b6ab883a","kind":"paragraph","order":880,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"ワイヤーボンディング","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ebb2c87c-39e1-4405-bf28-38be0dd6c9fd","kind":"paragraph","order":881,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"レンズ位置合わせ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_db6c186f-7d8c-4b07-b8dc-c81c77961263","kind":"paragraph","order":882,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"ファイバー結合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4cf41237-a727-4c25-bd92-c01b532d1ba1","kind":"paragraph","order":883,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"温度センサー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_29479747-0b33-420f-bcaa-3df0dd532817","kind":"paragraph","order":884,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"フォトダイオード","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b709806b-eaf1-435e-a7ea-9e4d7e15c305","kind":"paragraph","order":885,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"冷却・放熱構造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2263c216-e607-4843-93e4-5bb0bdac58ca","kind":"paragraph","order":886,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"が必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a0c874ab-eed5-4467-bdaf-1e6252a0105d","kind":"paragraph","order":887,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"光学位置合わせはサブミクロン級の精度を要求されることがあり、CMOSロジックの組立とは異なる設備とノウハウが必要である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8a28c4a4-30cd-4d3b-b478-d3d0fc4ef079","kind":"paragraph","order":888,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"6-6．検査とバーンインに時間がかかる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_859859fa-571b-4b2d-98d8-2d0b37cbb956","kind":"paragraph","order":889,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザーでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b6ac019-e841-450a-b5d1-d3d3d80973b2","kind":"paragraph","order":890,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"光出力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c5b049c-84e2-43d3-95b6-75016b5a18c4","kind":"paragraph","order":891,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"発振波長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e4ecce8f-a40b-4451-9d34-f062d9910b1d","kind":"paragraph","order":892,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"SMSR","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_abf31b9b-f1c9-4764-9cf1-2bfcfb525b72","kind":"paragraph","order":893,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"線幅","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_625c2aef-9da0-4908-9bc9-46bd49180263","kind":"paragraph","order":894,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"RIN","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2df93bde-9b5e-4025-b40f-cd84a812f8bc","kind":"paragraph","order":895,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"偏光","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f5f8fb4-66e1-4220-9a69-510d7d4d3925","kind":"paragraph","order":896,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"温度特性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_faf2d91a-de6c-4114-ad9e-bc095e206328","kind":"paragraph","order":897,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"長期劣化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_65d2f247-c6a2-469c-81ed-65f767913f58","kind":"paragraph","order":898,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"を測定する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_61261549-4b64-4ba3-bace-8c44d1388180","kind":"paragraph","order":899,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらに高温、高電流で一定時間動作させ、初期故障を取り除くバーンインが必要になる。Aehrはレーザーやフォトニクスデバイスのウェハー、ダイ、モジュール単位での試験とバーンインを展開している。(Aehr Test Systems)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4759842b-df40-48a6-a7e5-ee5877364b66","kind":"paragraph","order":900,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"ウェハー工程を増強しても、検査・バーンイン能力が不足すれば出荷量は増えない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c3333441-8161-43a2-bde9-739ed4c43fc9","kind":"paragraph","order":901,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"6-7．顧客認証が最後の関門になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_848ca982-3535-4f59-be8c-2b4e14fa6dc5","kind":"paragraph","order":902,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"新しい工場、新しいウェハー径、新しいエピ工程へ変更すると、顧客側で再認証が必要になることがある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d3f909e-4f6f-4e90-8e66-1deec76f5867","kind":"paragraph","order":903,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"顧客が求めるのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_862bcacd-c09c-49e9-9542-a914fa477c67","kind":"paragraph","order":904,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"出力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8473c847-03c6-4f8e-b2da-7b45cff2bc7e","kind":"paragraph","order":905,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"波長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_813c3a52-46d7-4b8f-b932-1d6a0230a3f8","kind":"paragraph","order":906,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"線幅","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_83226516-f21a-491c-aee6-dae6d9fc9aa9","kind":"paragraph","order":907,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"雑音","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0db77777-00f9-4690-89cd-46191cc1c202","kind":"paragraph","order":908,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"動作温度","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7511af2c-7903-47f6-bf27-aaa0ea43a987","kind":"paragraph","order":909,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"寿命","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_42cfb3c2-6ff0-4792-9b61-2aad52e0705b","kind":"paragraph","order":910,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"パッケージ形状","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_477def80-3018-421e-8126-54d923843bda","kind":"paragraph","order":911,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"ファイバー仕様","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fec38b76-75f6-4b42-9956-55906f56edcd","kind":"paragraph","order":912,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"故障率","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5a6c2f8-128d-46c6-8d87-34a7a3717385","kind":"paragraph","order":913,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"を長期間満たす製品である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15b6d7ae-439d-42a7-a20b-baf190e630ca","kind":"paragraph","order":914,"section_id":"sec_f727661a-6588-44b8-a1c2-0cc804e45908","character_id":null,"markdown":"設備完成と売上計上の間には、歩留まり改善、信頼性試験、顧客認証という時間差がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0a9c1903-a097-40f2-8be9-2b10cb3ad54c","kind":"heading","order":915,"section_id":"sec_36f0ad05-c4e5-454d-ab7e-6a399096512d","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜エピ成長・後工程・装置の増産制約","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_360a3a0f-0c1d-4193-bcd9-61e3d8aea30b","kind":"figure","order":916,"section_id":"sec_36f0ad05-c4e5-454d-ab7e-6a399096512d","character_id":null,"markdown":"![エピ成長・後工程・装置の増産制約 01](/media/b2f988e4db2a457c4d10fe576682bd1e026a5dd51d1fecc0f877ab31c763f88e-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_556e9eca-7f82-4b61-a238-b50aa4066366","kind":"figure","order":917,"section_id":"sec_36f0ad05-c4e5-454d-ab7e-6a399096512d","character_id":null,"markdown":"![エピ成長・後工程・装置の増産制約 02](/media/5c6c15745047e7a96edc22bfbd7db6db867ba23dd83e448adec9f94032295326-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e8641c3-85c0-40e2-86b6-f4109abe264c","kind":"figure","order":918,"section_id":"sec_36f0ad05-c4e5-454d-ab7e-6a399096512d","character_id":null,"markdown":"![エピ成長・後工程・装置の増産制約 03](/media/ebbdded2f90da4d67026807312d2fa55721a26166d1d2a0b71cc97c0ed3469a6-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_026772d6-02a2-41b6-a98d-1a69fee420fd","kind":"figure","order":919,"section_id":"sec_36f0ad05-c4e5-454d-ab7e-6a399096512d","character_id":null,"markdown":"![エピ成長・後工程・装置の増産制約 04](/media/dcb723f2398693b19ff501c14874f2f0e471a66a78956ec1afe24a8b5e97b21f-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b2c18452-2a0c-4815-b8e7-231942598455","kind":"figure","order":920,"section_id":"sec_36f0ad05-c4e5-454d-ab7e-6a399096512d","character_id":null,"markdown":"![エピ成長・後工程・装置の増産制約 05](/media/8f2c5c2105e064b52f8c34176a309a34bd9c324fa4933e761b0e3863f838fd6c-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc7d08dd-c7e4-4053-8da6-7d77cd42f663","kind":"figure","order":921,"section_id":"sec_36f0ad05-c4e5-454d-ab7e-6a399096512d","character_id":null,"markdown":"![エピ成長・後工程・装置の増産制約 06](/media/1daa80dca329b4170e8565ca4bf5e5cfb6b1504daa47fbc6c6b14a3192c4fbcf-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_76ac9136-b59c-4c58-9afd-90f6b1210809","kind":"heading","order":922,"section_id":"sec_97e28414-4174-4f05-9ebc-067096eb6297","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 7．供給能力は最も弱い工程で決まる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_488945e2-2ef2-4762-9042-b370fd0bbe62","kind":"paragraph","order":923,"section_id":"sec_97e28414-4174-4f05-9ebc-067096eb6297","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPレーザーの出荷能力は、概念的には次のように表せる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_608e6c97-c947-4728-808b-042581083586","kind":"math","order":924,"section_id":"sec_97e28414-4174-4f05-9ebc-067096eb6297","character_id":null,"markdown":"$$\\begin{aligned}\\text{実効出荷能力}&=\\min\\bigl(\\text{InP基板供給},\\ \\text{エピ成長能力},\\&\\quad \\text{DFB格子加工能力},\\ \\text{再成長能力},\\&\\quad \\text{レーザーFab能力},\\ \\text{前工程歩留まり},\\&\\quad \\text{実装能力},\\ \\text{光学検査能力},\\&\\quad \\text{バーンイン能力},\\ \\text{顧客認証済み能力}\\bigr)\\end{aligned}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7afe8ee0-4ed5-4bb4-9fbc-d1cefcc21f52","kind":"paragraph","order":925,"section_id":"sec_97e28414-4174-4f05-9ebc-067096eb6297","character_id":null,"markdown":"基板だけを増やしてもレーザーは増えない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_62c2da95-ed32-445d-ade2-dd30533cccc8","kind":"paragraph","order":926,"section_id":"sec_97e28414-4174-4f05-9ebc-067096eb6297","character_id":null,"markdown":"MOCVD装置だけを増やしても、格子加工や再成長で詰まる可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aa53b21d-2e51-4adc-9837-9b40fe499b42","kind":"paragraph","order":927,"section_id":"sec_97e28414-4174-4f05-9ebc-067096eb6297","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザーダイを増やしても、実装、ファイバー結合、検査が不足すれば完成品にならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6aa4bb43-1cfb-489f-b013-ae4ce555d19f","kind":"paragraph","order":928,"section_id":"sec_97e28414-4174-4f05-9ebc-067096eb6297","character_id":null,"markdown":"この「最小値で決まる」構造こそ、資金だけで短期解決しにくい理由である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ee016793-8de5-4f4a-9e90-6dc007324e7d","kind":"heading","order":929,"section_id":"sec_0eefa0b6-71b7-4986-81e8-697de976fc46","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜InPレーザー供給網の全体像","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_51a134d5-8f48-4412-ad04-279b7204e5a4","kind":"figure","order":930,"section_id":"sec_0eefa0b6-71b7-4986-81e8-697de976fc46","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InPレーザー供給網の全体像 01](/media/d9babf7ffb6df7feee67a5dcf20489463ed74df06d900b781a090b353966af5b-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ba3039e-71f4-469a-8cc1-1902ef56d0f1","kind":"heading","order":931,"section_id":"sec_97299f02-2694-4804-acb8-0bc4b29494a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 8．領域別の有力銘柄","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c86d284-8b2e-405e-be4f-23ca21d53b56","kind":"paragraph","order":932,"section_id":"sec_97299f02-2694-4804-acb8-0bc4b29494a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"以下は買い推奨順位ではなく、技術と供給網のどこへ露出しているかを整理したものである。2026年8月2日時点。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fc380c7b-0368-4087-9299-b1878bc64cb5","kind":"paragraph","order":933,"section_id":"sec_97299f02-2694-4804-acb8-0bc4b29494a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"8-1．InP基板","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f2ad5307-25db-4827-9684-6fa8d7776d23","kind":"paragraph","order":934,"section_id":"sec_97299f02-2694-4804-acb8-0bc4b29494a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"住友電気工業〔5802〕","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_27a707dd-0d3a-4052-b36f-ebe4f549e36f","kind":"paragraph","order":935,"section_id":"sec_97299f02-2694-4804-acb8-0bc4b29494a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"住友電工はInP基板、光デバイス、シリコンフォトニクスとの異種材料集積まで幅広く持つ。基板だけの専業ではないが、材料からデバイスへつながる垂直統合が強い。会社はデータセンター向け光デバイスとInP基板の能力拡張を成長戦略に位置づけている。(Sumitomo Electric)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8661e0e-ca40-438c-b132-a38bae4d3323","kind":"paragraph","order":936,"section_id":"sec_97299f02-2694-4804-acb8-0bc4b29494a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"強み","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8201a67-e81d-4866-9078-58dae02709b4","kind":"paragraph","order":937,"section_id":"sec_97299f02-2694-4804-acb8-0bc4b29494a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"高品質InP基板","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f07f7ab3-e8b3-499d-af0c-484cf47603a0","kind":"paragraph","order":938,"section_id":"sec_97299f02-2694-4804-acb8-0bc4b29494a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"光デバイスとの垂直統合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2afb76e9-bb0a-4687-87ea-35e4279a0bbf","kind":"paragraph","order":939,"section_id":"sec_97299f02-2694-4804-acb8-0bc4b29494a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本国内の材料・製造基盤","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_94708f46-36db-4ff3-81ef-0b10b56606c8","kind":"paragraph","order":940,"section_id":"sec_97299f02-2694-4804-acb8-0bc4b29494a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"次世代InP光源研究","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7f5679f-6226-4d7a-ab86-94b97e2a1742","kind":"paragraph","order":941,"section_id":"sec_97299f02-2694-4804-acb8-0bc4b29494a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"注意点","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0b07e744-31de-4c40-876c-7ff2a449f06b","kind":"paragraph","order":942,"section_id":"sec_97299f02-2694-4804-acb8-0bc4b29494a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"事業規模が大きく、InPレーザーだけへの株価感応度は低い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_05204baf-da58-45da-a0cb-e297a100e039","kind":"paragraph","order":943,"section_id":"sec_97299f02-2694-4804-acb8-0bc4b29494a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"AXT〔NASDAQ：AXTI〕","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c7a6bf9-b801-4a46-8aef-801b4fe2abc4","kind":"paragraph","order":944,"section_id":"sec_97299f02-2694-4804-acb8-0bc4b29494a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"AXTはInP、GaAs、Ge基板を製造する材料企業で、住友電工よりInP需給への業績感応度が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c9e4ac82-9117-44fc-b5c8-de573c9bcc37","kind":"paragraph","order":945,"section_id":"sec_97299f02-2694-4804-acb8-0bc4b29494a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年にはInP能力拡張と6インチInP研究へ資金を振り向け、7月にはLumentumと2031年末までのInP基板供給・能力予約契約を締結した。Lumentumからの予約デポジットは、初回4,350万ドルと2028年に条件を定める予定の追加4,350万ドルで、合計8,700万ドルとなる。(AXT, 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Solutions〔NASDAQ：VIAV〕","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9bdb5c13-9a7b-4671-a7f3-9526ac33fb42","kind":"paragraph","order":1112,"section_id":"sec_97299f02-2694-4804-acb8-0bc4b29494a6","character_id":null,"markdown":"光パワーメーター、光スペクトラム、スイッチ、環境信頼性試験、光部品製造検査を提供する。レーザーダイそのものより、光源モジュール、ファイバー、コネクターを含む完成システム側への露出が強い。(VIAVI Solutions Inc.)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5d4217d-386b-473c-9358-976e2f64bbe9","kind":"heading","order":1113,"section_id":"sec_c7a3c45b-8359-49ce-a2cb-0cc3ed357b5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 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Instruments","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c43288f2-ab52-4e9f-a304-80b97be62324","kind":"paragraph","order":1127,"section_id":"sec_c7a3c45b-8359-49ce-a2cb-0cc3ed357b5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Veeco：2026年の大型受注が具体化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d38a2bd5-a144-447b-85d8-267ea2f362a0","kind":"paragraph","order":1128,"section_id":"sec_c7a3c45b-8359-49ce-a2cb-0cc3ed357b5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIXTRON：LumentumなどのMOCVD増強","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9717ae9c-5d1a-436f-bb8f-7fc1fc329f68","kind":"paragraph","order":1129,"section_id":"sec_c7a3c45b-8359-49ce-a2cb-0cc3ed357b5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Oxford：DFB格子・InPエッチング","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_55285776-cf04-49a5-86e5-5dc0681b0e8b","kind":"paragraph","order":1130,"section_id":"sec_c7a3c45b-8359-49ce-a2cb-0cc3ed357b5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"高リスク・高感応度","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19b57c7b-4711-4fab-be31-bdb36fbcc897","kind":"paragraph","order":1131,"section_id":"sec_c7a3c45b-8359-49ce-a2cb-0cc3ed357b5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"AAOI、Sivers、AXT、IQE、LandMark","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_938d43ed-3acd-487f-8f3e-2a836782f8e9","kind":"paragraph","order":1132,"section_id":"sec_c7a3c45b-8359-49ce-a2cb-0cc3ed357b5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"採用や供給逼迫が業績へ大きく反映される可能性がある一方、顧客集中、財務、量産歩留まり、地政学の影響も大きい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_14cdb269-64ec-47fa-b99f-809f588d44b6","kind":"paragraph","order":1133,"section_id":"sec_c7a3c45b-8359-49ce-a2cb-0cc3ed357b5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPO全体の統合企業","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_62c1fb7b-943a-4295-b729-dabe4793f38d","kind":"paragraph","order":1134,"section_id":"sec_c7a3c45b-8359-49ce-a2cb-0cc3ed357b5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Broadcom","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2eb7afd4-dce8-41fa-bb5f-a9475ef9c76a","kind":"paragraph","order":1135,"section_id":"sec_c7a3c45b-8359-49ce-a2cb-0cc3ed357b5e","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザーだけではなく、スイッチASICから光エンジンまでを含む。レーザー不足の純粋な投資先ではないが、CPO全体の商用化を主導できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b138372e-d125-4945-b3b0-331c942de478","kind":"heading","order":1136,"section_id":"sec_5396d1bd-8e81-4aa7-a7fe-575d535f6782","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜投資テーマ別の供給網整理","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bdd3957e-b249-4e98-b6d0-a984fd71d46e","kind":"figure","order":1137,"section_id":"sec_5396d1bd-8e81-4aa7-a7fe-575d535f6782","character_id":null,"markdown":"![投資テーマ別の供給網整理 01](/media/a5a8ae5f33e9a3e476eb61a3455c41ccc0c131c1afd60f660690c94c105ed156-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ad02527-656d-467b-93a8-a7a35d727f86","kind":"heading","order":1138,"section_id":"sec_96ad4168-c013-40a7-8ed9-6b77a20e5619","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 10．今後確認すべき指標","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5a2d444c-d177-4288-8da2-04aeba97906a","kind":"paragraph","order":1139,"section_id":"sec_96ad4168-c013-40a7-8ed9-6b77a20e5619","character_id":null,"markdown":"このテーマでは、「技術発表」だけでは量産を判断できない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c7a7a2a0-108f-40a2-b18d-d1965fea4f7c","kind":"paragraph","order":1140,"section_id":"sec_96ad4168-c013-40a7-8ed9-6b77a20e5619","character_id":null,"markdown":"重要なのは次の順序である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_45f631ac-ac1d-44e4-bd99-8e6e353c6ee6","kind":"paragraph","order":1141,"section_id":"sec_96ad4168-c013-40a7-8ed9-6b77a20e5619","character_id":null,"markdown":"研究試作\n  ↓\n顧客サンプル\n  ↓\n信頼性評価\n  ↓\n顧客認証\n  ↓\n能力予約・LTA\n  ↓\n装置発注\n  ↓\n工場完成\n  ↓\n初期量産\n  ↓\n歩留まり改善\n  ↓\n本格売上","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef2e0b33-dd37-4212-a82d-3833e1365c32","kind":"paragraph","order":1142,"section_id":"sec_96ad4168-c013-40a7-8ed9-6b77a20e5619","character_id":null,"markdown":"確認すべき項目は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_998f948b-2eb0-404f-9317-10e4a4bbdd93","kind":"paragraph","order":1143,"section_id":"sec_96ad4168-c013-40a7-8ed9-6b77a20e5619","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP基板の能力予約とデポジット","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc5a1b6e-9f40-46ea-9d89-37638749ee93","kind":"paragraph","order":1144,"section_id":"sec_96ad4168-c013-40a7-8ed9-6b77a20e5619","character_id":null,"markdown":"MOCVD装置受注","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9f30bf67-d215-4a14-912d-86d42dcdf971","kind":"paragraph","order":1145,"section_id":"sec_96ad4168-c013-40a7-8ed9-6b77a20e5619","character_id":null,"markdown":"6インチ移行率","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f05d4eb5-d73e-44cb-aca2-27f7061b90cc","kind":"paragraph","order":1146,"section_id":"sec_96ad4168-c013-40a7-8ed9-6b77a20e5619","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFBレーザーの波長別歩留まり","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84fa49fc-02f0-47f2-af3c-8d54825c56f2","kind":"paragraph","order":1147,"section_id":"sec_96ad4168-c013-40a7-8ed9-6b77a20e5619","character_id":null,"markdown":"高温時の光出力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd5e324d-ccd6-41cd-9e6d-382de7c01317","kind":"paragraph","order":1148,"section_id":"sec_96ad4168-c013-40a7-8ed9-6b77a20e5619","character_id":null,"markdown":"電力変換効率","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b2f01120-64e9-475a-81b9-7c227b40c601","kind":"paragraph","order":1149,"section_id":"sec_96ad4168-c013-40a7-8ed9-6b77a20e5619","character_id":null,"markdown":"線幅とRIN","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c2c56ef6-528d-445f-ba38-4884f7a1d469","kind":"paragraph","order":1150,"section_id":"sec_96ad4168-c013-40a7-8ed9-6b77a20e5619","character_id":null,"markdown":"顧客認証数","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7bcb08f1-97e5-49a6-9173-8d0791f9eff3","kind":"paragraph","order":1151,"section_id":"sec_96ad4168-c013-40a7-8ed9-6b77a20e5619","character_id":null,"markdown":"ELSのチャネル数","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b501c50e-169a-4b58-8e76-a9245e93847d","kind":"paragraph","order":1152,"section_id":"sec_96ad4168-c013-40a7-8ed9-6b77a20e5619","character_id":null,"markdown":"バーンイン時間","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_64f56927-9976-47a6-a373-00264ed0d25d","kind":"paragraph","order":1153,"section_id":"sec_96ad4168-c013-40a7-8ed9-6b77a20e5619","character_id":null,"markdown":"新工場の稼働時期","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b73a69a-cbbd-4ebe-8763-12ff48ac7ee6","kind":"paragraph","order":1154,"section_id":"sec_96ad4168-c013-40a7-8ed9-6b77a20e5619","character_id":null,"markdown":"売上より先に増える減価償却費","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_560065ce-5d16-4dd2-a34a-8b3b0553bec6","kind":"paragraph","order":1155,"section_id":"sec_96ad4168-c013-40a7-8ed9-6b77a20e5619","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b4ec2ddf-0344-4dfe-87f5-ab1b2ec27504","kind":"paragraph","order":1156,"section_id":"sec_96ad4168-c013-40a7-8ed9-6b77a20e5619","character_id":null,"markdown":"特にAXTとLumentumの長期契約、Veecoの2億5,000万ドル超の装置受注、AIXTRONのLumentum向け複数装置、古河電工の500％超増産計画は、InPレーザー需要が研究段階から実際の能力確保へ移り始めていることを示す。(AXT, Inc.)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c362e6c6-5e0d-4d13-a703-e7afedb8c92d","kind":"heading","order":1157,"section_id":"sec_b4b87801-ce85-42e4-957a-427557fb6059","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜増産と供給網の確認指標","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b1918c62-7cda-4b90-a33f-fc5f5dbb1ccf","kind":"figure","order":1158,"section_id":"sec_b4b87801-ce85-42e4-957a-427557fb6059","character_id":null,"markdown":"![増産と供給網の確認指標 01](/media/02dab0a89c9ff6ac5ffd94e99da5de9786fcd71961cdfa3e847d778f91e06b91-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_53703b44-37f4-4652-878e-ffc0974c554c","kind":"heading","order":1159,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 結論――InPレーザーは一枚のチップではなく、供給網全体の総合技術である","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e08e9b15-6b8d-4fec-9f64-244a677d3d76","kind":"paragraph","order":1160,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"CW DFB型InPレーザーは、中央の量子井戸で光を作り、SCHとクラッドで光を閉じ込め、BHやリッジで電流と横モードを制御し、DFB格子で波長を選択する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3761b892-0e7c-4eb4-b628-a828750933e0","kind":"paragraph","order":1161,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし量産を難しくしているのは、構造そのものだけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_45a63a4f-75dc-42c4-ae9f-3b048ff7894f","kind":"paragraph","order":1162,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"高品質InP基板","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_67bca4c9-90e1-4f00-9820-551632bd081b","kind":"paragraph","order":1163,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"ナノメートル単位のMQW成長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ddc61614-79fc-4b48-aa6e-82917706393d","kind":"paragraph","order":1164,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"微細DFB格子","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b777020a-7bff-4c26-b1e6-34a137f39870","kind":"paragraph","order":1165,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"汚染を許さない再成長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ce891ef-a60d-4eb1-9b28-00f04054886d","kind":"paragraph","order":1166,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"高出力時の熱設計","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_475284cc-ce5b-438c-858d-4ce206df9039","kind":"paragraph","order":1167,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"端面コーティング","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4cf397c7-2854-46a8-badf-a9106a656a8a","kind":"paragraph","order":1168,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"ファイバー結合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_24c17a2f-4611-4a40-8357-5dfed87e0106","kind":"paragraph","order":1169,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"長時間バーンイン","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ceaf1a56-7160-41c8-b5ca-fdfce7a216e8","kind":"paragraph","order":1170,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"顧客認証","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5f55ab19-f2e7-48af-8715-4befceb80cae","kind":"paragraph","order":1171,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"をすべて成立させなければならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c5723ad-28a2-4d90-91b5-86cd0ebb3117","kind":"paragraph","order":1172,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本は、末松安晴氏らによる長波長単一モードレーザーと位相シフトDFBの研究から、NTTのBH・再成長技術、古河電工の高出力DFB・ELS、住友電工のInP基板と光デバイスまで、長い技術的蓄積を持つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6a33563-55b9-491b-a923-f095641b6c53","kind":"paragraph","order":1173,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方、現在の量産競争ではCoherentの6インチInP、Lumentumの超高出力光源、Veeco・AIXTRONの装置増強、AXT・IQE・LandMarkの上流供給も重要である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_53f6c954-5645-4514-a762-1b4380890f76","kind":"paragraph","order":1174,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、このテーマは単なる「レーザー銘柄探し」ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0f95fedf-bb29-4d0c-b671-a44a655d5edd","kind":"paragraph","order":1175,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI計算基盤の光化によって、InP基板、エピ、MOCVD、DFB格子、再成長、レーザーチップ、光学実装、検査まで、古い化合物半導体産業全体が再評価される構造変化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e53ff88-fc64-4409-bf10-e4643f429000","kind":"paragraph","order":1176,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"として見る必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3f1ee65-2f3f-475a-9195-afa1ba5752e9","kind":"paragraph","order":1177,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"光変調、シリコンフォトニクス、CWレーザー、InP基板、化合物半導体は、なぜ発展してきたのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ae9f5a0-e78a-4f8a-b634-17489ba6a822","kind":"paragraph","order":1178,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"これらの技術は別々に生まれましたが、現在は一つの光通信システムの中で役割分担しています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4230b02c-7416-4143-941f-9d7520be55c7","kind":"paragraph","order":1179,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"その歴史を一文で表すと、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5db437c5-5ce6-407f-897c-eb51ddaacbd6","kind":"paragraph","order":1180,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"電気だけでは遠く・速く・低消費電力で情報を運べないため、光を作る材料、光へ情報を載せる技術、光を処理する回路、そしてそれらを量産する製造基盤が順番に発展してきた","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8b22d73d-88b7-44b6-bdc2-a24d75b6e357","kind":"paragraph","order":1181,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"という流れです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9712597c-fc0c-4a9b-bfbe-07c1cd8214fa","kind":"paragraph","order":1182,"section_id":"sec_35dc1343-d1f8-4181-a8e3-a5d702d26b73","character_id":null,"markdown":"なお、ここでは「InP基盤」を、結晶の土台であるInP基板と、その上にレーザーや受光器を作るInP系デバイス・プラットフォームの両方を含む意味で説明します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bbdd2bf5-de78-4bbb-8baa-ee4da3235e1f","kind":"heading","order":1183,"section_id":"sec_4fbb7fac-49c4-42e3-ad80-ada8561d2023","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 1．全体の歴史を先に見る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2489dbe4-3ffe-4cc7-a161-7172eac4ff4c","kind":"table","order":1184,"section_id":"sec_4fbb7fac-49c4-42e3-ad80-ada8561d2023","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 時代 | 主な課題 | 発展した技術 | 目的 |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 1940～1950年代 | 真空管を小型化したい | Si・Ge半導体、III-V化合物半導体研究 | 電子回路の小型化、高速化 |\n| 1960年代 | 半導体から強い光を出したい | 半導体レーザー、ヘテロ構造 | 電気を直接レーザー光へ変える |\n| 1970年代 | 光ファイバー通信を実用化したい | 低損失ファイバー、室温CWレーザー、InP系材料 | 長距離電話通信 |\n| 1980年代 | 波長を安定させ、高速化したい | InGaAsP/InP、DFB、MQW、BH、外部変調 | 単一波長・高速・高信頼化 |\n| 1990年代 | インターネット幹線の容量を増やしたい | WDM、LiNbO₃変調器、光増幅器、InP光集積 | 一本のファイバーで多波長伝送 |\n| 2000年代 | 光部品を安く大量に作りたい | シリコンフォトニクス、高速Si変調器、III-V/Si接合 | CMOS量産技術を光回路へ導入 |\n| 2010年代 | データセンター接続を高速化したい | 100G～800G光トランシーバー、PAM4、SiPh量産 | サーバー間・ラック間接続 |\n| 2020年代 | AI計算機内部の電気配線限界 | CPO、Optical I/O、高出力CWレーザー | 光をASIC・パッケージ近傍へ移す |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ea5a9e3-883b-4197-8f5d-f3ec905e7595","kind":"paragraph","order":1185,"section_id":"sec_4fbb7fac-49c4-42e3-ad80-ada8561d2023","character_id":null,"markdown":"重要なのは、技術が古いものから新しいものへ完全に置き換わったのではないことです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a189d4b0-f120-42ab-b95b-45ceb1d101fa","kind":"paragraph","order":1186,"section_id":"sec_4fbb7fac-49c4-42e3-ad80-ada8561d2023","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のCPOでも、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb12eedf-68ee-4cbc-94e5-28f629816253","kind":"paragraph","order":1187,"section_id":"sec_4fbb7fac-49c4-42e3-ad80-ada8561d2023","character_id":null,"markdown":"1950～60年代に始まった化合物半導体","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_89e06964-6ff5-485e-aee9-3e705109b7e9","kind":"paragraph","order":1188,"section_id":"sec_4fbb7fac-49c4-42e3-ad80-ada8561d2023","character_id":null,"markdown":"1970年代に実用化されたCW半導体レーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5bebbe5-a3a8-4baa-bda7-ddd9e6214932","kind":"paragraph","order":1189,"section_id":"sec_4fbb7fac-49c4-42e3-ad80-ada8561d2023","character_id":null,"markdown":"1980年代に成熟したInP DFBレーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c10daaf-6f70-446d-90c5-8c91d8779db5","kind":"paragraph","order":1190,"section_id":"sec_4fbb7fac-49c4-42e3-ad80-ada8561d2023","character_id":null,"markdown":"1990年代に発展した外部光変調","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_05cbd6df-7862-48a3-9e42-80f4656a8b42","kind":"paragraph","order":1191,"section_id":"sec_4fbb7fac-49c4-42e3-ad80-ada8561d2023","character_id":null,"markdown":"2000年代から本格化したシリコンフォトニクス","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f55d394-d057-4ae0-838e-825ef1e7639b","kind":"paragraph","order":1192,"section_id":"sec_4fbb7fac-49c4-42e3-ad80-ada8561d2023","character_id":null,"markdown":"が一つのシステムへ集まっています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e87b9a7b-9030-4900-afe1-2c0e1165ad93","kind":"heading","order":1193,"section_id":"sec_32aea950-3d7a-4006-a4ce-88d3898b7695","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜光通信技術の歴史と半導体レーザーの出発点","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2d01a998-2de6-467c-be84-3bf8d0ee14e7","kind":"figure","order":1194,"section_id":"sec_32aea950-3d7a-4006-a4ce-88d3898b7695","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光通信技術の歴史と半導体レーザーの出発点 01](/media/accc323a3ba5d187baba67dedadda47846e3ccb0d99ab6ad146bf30cfe8f1a14-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9efa4515-316f-4b40-96d5-a8be1ae8385f","kind":"figure","order":1195,"section_id":"sec_32aea950-3d7a-4006-a4ce-88d3898b7695","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光通信技術の歴史と半導体レーザーの出発点 02](/media/80e4d5cdcaf16b63299afc239a771df8e663090b2fdcf44dd7543758278652b6-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a76c76de-4827-4fca-a415-7b6e73e45833","kind":"heading","order":1196,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 2．化合物半導体は、シリコンではできないことを担うために発展した","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_90fd50ca-9960-413e-b987-0a41deff26e7","kind":"paragraph","order":1197,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"半導体の出発点は電子回路だった","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c07484bf-b98d-42eb-ab95-f05f7dd54acf","kind":"paragraph","order":1198,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"1940年代後半にトランジスタが登場し、1950年代にはゲルマニウムやシリコンを使った電子回路の研究が進みました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3bcd009d-60f9-4dfe-97b4-c4822faca5bb","kind":"paragraph","order":1199,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_681392f6-ba17-4a88-a6bb-cabb4ec99230","kind":"paragraph","order":1200,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"原料が豊富","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8dd60b6f-a1b7-4b5c-8011-e9662709d0cf","kind":"paragraph","order":1201,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"酸化膜を作りやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_145d894b-451a-4909-abed-0ef0d3e9fffb","kind":"paragraph","order":1202,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"大口径化しやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ff4af51-b228-4f07-860d-772bb56e193a","kind":"paragraph","order":1203,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"集積回路を大量生産しやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e1db1e15-8ddd-494c-bf3b-bda590690312","kind":"paragraph","order":1204,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"安定したMOSトランジスタを作れる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0fd4c6d4-d0e8-43e8-a4e4-0c8e11db8581","kind":"paragraph","order":1205,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"という性質を持ち、論理回路とメモリの中心材料になりました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fe08bc0a-22e2-4741-ba26-7959c3ec15b2","kind":"paragraph","order":1206,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、シリコンは万能ではありません。特に、効率的な発光や非常に高速な電子移動には、必ずしも最適ではありません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7672dce1-b5dd-4250-bae9-f090d0e61503","kind":"paragraph","order":1207,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこで1950年代初頭から、周期表のIII族元素とV族元素を組み合わせるIII-V族化合物半導体が研究されました。NISTの歴史資料によれば、当初はSiやGeより優れたトランジスタ材料を目指して探索されましたが、後にLED、半導体レーザー、マイクロ波デバイスで重要な用途を得ました。(NIST Publications)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_687584f4-a044-4d04-bca9-56ef22a3dce6","kind":"paragraph","order":1208,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"化合物半導体とは何か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_938bd91a-9f1b-4c13-948e-74a9b64a4467","kind":"paragraph","order":1209,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"代表例は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f819bdb3-c8eb-4809-89e9-cf58dc4a2e17","kind":"paragraph","order":1210,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"GaAs：ガリウム・ヒ素","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c4d7ae3-725b-421c-8500-4fb2e95f44b5","kind":"paragraph","order":1211,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP：インジウム・リン","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd2cc3b9-eee3-462b-8ce9-078b10be9199","kind":"paragraph","order":1212,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"GaN：ガリウム・窒素","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d9dafb0f-7dc0-432e-8d9e-514f32f3d578","kind":"paragraph","order":1213,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"InGaAs：インジウム・ガリウム・ヒ素","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_75cc8a5b-a07a-4cb8-b1c0-bd5088e32a9e","kind":"paragraph","order":1214,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"InGaAsP：インジウム・ガリウム・ヒ素・リン","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_08be2ce8-22cd-4e8d-a22d-2d7835ba3911","kind":"paragraph","order":1215,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"AlGaInAs：アルミニウム・ガリウム・インジウム・ヒ素","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7dde674b-50ca-423d-983a-8b81e7e545c2","kind":"paragraph","order":1216,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7211b88e-338d-4c30-bd77-8b185c92525b","kind":"paragraph","order":1217,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"元素の組み合わせと比率を変えることで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d14430a6-ecaf-4185-9e15-bab5a8591348","kind":"paragraph","order":1218,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"バンドギャップ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_419afeb8-6a40-40b0-a907-3fbd84013277","kind":"paragraph","order":1219,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"発光波長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1135d6de-a29d-46ce-8945-4eb2d664fbec","kind":"paragraph","order":1220,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"屈折率","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1bc2a356-ffb5-4a8e-9810-e74ff7e41cf1","kind":"paragraph","order":1221,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"電子移動度","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_50e7931e-aeca-4345-91f9-b5adc548a159","kind":"paragraph","order":1222,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"耐圧","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c534dca7-ddd8-49b2-abf1-5e6539affd44","kind":"paragraph","order":1223,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"熱特性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e730d8ff-aa27-4e16-add9-0fb94f145e04","kind":"paragraph","order":1224,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"を設計できます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e406931c-70e0-4c0d-ba0a-ce54eae514f3","kind":"paragraph","order":1225,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"自然界にある一種類の材料を使うのではなく、用途に合う性質を人工的に組み合わせるための材料体系です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_60979d55-9b28-4810-a50a-080d798c86bf","kind":"paragraph","order":1226,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"なぜ発光には化合物半導体が有利なのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ba351eb-e4c4-43a1-ad9b-dd89744c7333","kind":"paragraph","order":1227,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"GaAsやInP系材料の多くは直接遷移型半導体です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_26327e2d-2031-4306-b96a-7be4545458d2","kind":"paragraph","order":1228,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"電子と正孔が再結合するとき、運動量を大きく変えずに光子を放出できるため、電気エネルギーを光へ変換しやすい性質があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56153460-5fb2-4438-a56d-a67e7c10bd9b","kind":"paragraph","order":1229,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方、シリコンは間接遷移型で、発光時に格子振動も関与する必要があるため、通常の構造では発光効率が低くなります。NISTも、直接遷移型半導体やそのヘテロ構造が、強い光放出を必要とするレーザーダイオードなどに使われると説明しています。(NIST Publications)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8c99f89-ace2-43b8-9b58-a346903f1736","kind":"paragraph","order":1230,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、産業は次のように分業しました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_59b8155b-e8a6-4022-bf45-25cd84543880","kind":"paragraph","order":1231,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコン\n→ 計算、論理、メモリ、大規模集積","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_57623e14-46c6-408b-8243-1e8c26ac8814","kind":"paragraph","order":1232,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"III-V化合物半導体\n→ 発光、受光、高周波、高出力、高速電子","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f9be6c99-6124-4036-8708-a5fcd5b9e27a","kind":"paragraph","order":1233,"section_id":"sec_c796ac11-e4ea-4e5f-b3c4-e03b75b120e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在の光通信でも、この分業が基本です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4890c5ff-f45d-4fb5-8f92-77d485617ced","kind":"heading","order":1234,"section_id":"sec_5b2e2c3d-938e-4968-b68e-b84af75dc8c6","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜化合物半導体の役割","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_999ec410-6d7c-46cc-9b30-24fae7de98dd","kind":"figure","order":1235,"section_id":"sec_5b2e2c3d-938e-4968-b68e-b84af75dc8c6","character_id":null,"markdown":"![化合物半導体の役割 01](/media/73a5b76b2c95b9390cd8c244f6ff4e4f930edb8a7ae8f9b82ef0b62bb59ab5a3-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4559264d-1dab-4707-acd0-f820189278a6","kind":"heading","order":1236,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 3．ヘテロ構造が、実用的な半導体レーザーを可能にした","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dfada8ac-bc5e-4d69-b525-0b616f69f794","kind":"paragraph","order":1237,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"初期レーザーの問題","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_716ab51c-c654-45e7-a84c-0eed16ccb84e","kind":"paragraph","order":1238,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"初期の半導体レーザーでは、電子、正孔、光を狭い領域に十分閉じ込められませんでした。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1a0467b2-7c81-4dfb-bfc1-8803cef2f090","kind":"paragraph","order":1239,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"その結果、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56e26d36-20a4-4396-8024-2cdf6fb78416","kind":"paragraph","order":1240,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"大きな電流が必要","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12ad7889-b121-43cf-9a6f-87790f632f54","kind":"paragraph","order":1241,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"発熱が大きい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_85df1c48-a9c8-49c3-992a-ce24701aa682","kind":"paragraph","order":1242,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"低温でしか安定しない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43176b31-5cd8-4f84-8777-5f3b734e63e9","kind":"paragraph","order":1243,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"パルス動作が中心","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_64bd6951-b18b-443d-90da-83aedfb59630","kind":"paragraph","order":1244,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"寿命が短い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc19211d-7215-4cc7-871f-245aab8d89dd","kind":"paragraph","order":1245,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"という問題がありました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_101f2017-a582-4228-beef-5a17f43efbc8","kind":"paragraph","order":1246,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここで登場したのがヘテロ構造です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7c7158a-b802-4053-b9a3-3f440cfee47c","kind":"paragraph","order":1247,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"異なる半導体を重ねる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_706baba6-402e-490a-9e89-a06a98aa16b8","kind":"paragraph","order":1248,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"ヘテロ構造では、バンドギャップと屈折率が異なる半導体を積層します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a6f7d875-fdf1-4582-9736-a67f43a1f831","kind":"paragraph","order":1249,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"広いバンドギャップ材料\n────────────────\n狭いバンドギャップ材料\n────────────────\n広いバンドギャップ材料","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_79a4be20-b350-40ef-b3f1-b3f67ff8c389","kind":"paragraph","order":1250,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"中央へ電子と正孔を閉じ込めると同時に、屈折率差を利用して光も閉じ込めます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ffa015ca-a8e8-4ddd-8b76-53ca6651246a","kind":"paragraph","order":1251,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"Herbert Kroemerは1957年にヘテロ構造トランジスタを提案し、1963年前後にはKroemerとZhores Alferovが独立にヘテロ構造レーザーの原理を発展させました。1960年代末から1970年ごろには、二重ヘテロ構造によって室温で連続動作できる半導体レーザーが実現しました。(Nobel Prize)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dc90150b-520d-44ef-a6b2-f9e19d25ff72","kind":"paragraph","order":1252,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"何が変わったのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_381a9046-a0f0-4d55-83f2-66f18bc743b0","kind":"paragraph","order":1253,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"二重ヘテロ構造によって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_67a9a65c-37fc-4c10-aca5-3612d9b28792","kind":"paragraph","order":1254,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"電子と正孔を中央へ集中","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_72a7ade3-404e-458c-ba2e-2d1e20e864b1","kind":"paragraph","order":1255,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"光も中央へ閉じ込める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5fffcba-75f2-4c7d-9856-c4a450ed0297","kind":"paragraph","order":1256,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"発振しきい値を低下","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e27b69d-c026-484a-9fc4-e824247af494","kind":"paragraph","order":1257,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"発熱を低減","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b33c439-231c-497f-84bc-d0e779bbff0c","kind":"paragraph","order":1258,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"室温でCW動作","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a2e2b232-7fec-4ca3-bc2d-a3d91e87319a","kind":"paragraph","order":1259,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"長寿命化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e7b2a198-a0df-429e-b257-9422732de928","kind":"paragraph","order":1260,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"が可能になりました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c91d20c7-827c-41f9-bf62-60b6a11c4594","kind":"paragraph","order":1261,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"この発明は、単にレーザーを改善しただけではありません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ddc19faf-9e44-495d-ac45-4547370b3ee1","kind":"paragraph","order":1262,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"半導体レーザーを研究室の装置から、通信機器へ組み込める部品へ変えた","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e377f71f-f739-46f5-9919-a88b22e4c4ab","kind":"paragraph","order":1263,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことが重要です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9c6a9cb0-3f3d-4b92-b8a8-cc8fa922f014","kind":"paragraph","order":1264,"section_id":"sec_cc6d3c3f-274d-45fc-baa8-82358db131f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"ヘテロ構造の発展は、高速トランジスタと光デバイスの両方の基盤となり、AlferovとKroemerは2000年のノーベル物理学賞を受賞しています。(Nobel Prize)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66f7e292-8179-4037-9964-f0e9f825c051","kind":"heading","order":1265,"section_id":"sec_2d0295ac-898a-4343-a1ca-83bf1be32c5a","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜ヘテロ構造と室温CW動作","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_397c09ea-637b-41f5-9ece-44fe63fddc82","kind":"figure","order":1266,"section_id":"sec_2d0295ac-898a-4343-a1ca-83bf1be32c5a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![ヘテロ構造と室温CW動作 01](/media/876d108e24060e8a7ed3a84fa6d3e071ab9e7d8142cfe192a04675d92c3b35d0-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a834d28b-5c1b-4d3a-a3e2-2c45d3b3b03c","kind":"figure","order":1267,"section_id":"sec_2d0295ac-898a-4343-a1ca-83bf1be32c5a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![ヘテロ構造と室温CW動作 02](/media/54eb9de965f7bc485f2fa8b2e8a434f203a5e613ddca607149f02e06964cab57-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_677edb8f-e01b-498b-8677-3c1daabd34d1","kind":"heading","order":1268,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 4．CWレーザーは、光ファイバーへ安定した光を入れるために発展した","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a48408e9-87f7-4b0b-b4cf-beeace924794","kind":"paragraph","order":1269,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"CWとは何か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_513e1201-92da-42c4-8f8e-83271ba6ea79","kind":"paragraph","order":1270,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"CWはContinuous Wave、連続波です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b42e0255-23cc-4b78-9f31-6546e3a8fb76","kind":"paragraph","order":1271,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"一定の光を連続的に発生させます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a1fa5008-d035-4d0c-9b1a-a06b1280b3a2","kind":"paragraph","order":1272,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"時間 →","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1715f487-909f-43f6-8f1e-628ba14f8ec4","kind":"paragraph","order":1273,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"CW光\n━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_16464e3c-8237-48e9-9802-bba0282b9982","kind":"paragraph","order":1274,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"これに対してパルスレーザーは、短い時間だけ強い光を出します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21c62f11-bbd9-4579-93e2-fd572075d3f0","kind":"paragraph","order":1275,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"初期の半導体レーザーでは発熱のため連続動作が難しく、短いパルスで動かすことが多くありました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a3709ece-86c8-4d7d-8ca7-70dce1e8738c","kind":"paragraph","order":1276,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし通信では、装置を常時稼働させる必要があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_070d42bf-8d16-4bc4-8b61-530d22269134","kind":"paragraph","order":1277,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_37b64951-99d1-4257-820a-d7007a03ca51","kind":"paragraph","order":1278,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"室温","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e448c21-d6f5-48cb-b98c-6bcd233e2797","kind":"paragraph","order":1279,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"低電流","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71a5425b-61ea-4dd1-9dcf-14498a9cdf2f","kind":"paragraph","order":1280,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"長時間","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aa79f22b-08c1-4a22-a8d1-ecdf0a223577","kind":"paragraph","order":1281,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"安定出力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a2f288d5-8e4c-4c28-8ea0-1a80508d0281","kind":"paragraph","order":1282,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"長寿命","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e57dcdc5-0151-4e93-822c-acd747fb899f","kind":"paragraph","order":1283,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"で連続動作するレーザーが必要になりました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ed6c4e16-a54d-4de5-8d3e-0cf1033f67a9","kind":"paragraph","order":1284,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"光ファイバーの登場が目的を与えた","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_680ebdaa-a68e-4481-b827-1af3d565f214","kind":"paragraph","order":1285,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"1960年代には、光を通信へ使う構想があっても、ガラスの損失が大きく、遠距離伝送は困難でした。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_72a1b6f9-2167-44c2-8f28-eb6f9f3acfc7","kind":"paragraph","order":1286,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"1970年にCorningが通信用の低損失光ファイバーを実証し、その後損失が急速に低下したことで、光ファイバー通信が現実的になりました。(IEEE Spectrum)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4712fbee-1245-462e-94b1-90d2fb1801b3","kind":"paragraph","order":1287,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"光ファイバーが低損失になったことで、今度は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_35eed83d-42e0-42be-b8ba-7261d920bf10","kind":"paragraph","order":1288,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"ファイバーへ入れる、小型で安定した半導体光源が必要","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_02f650c2-be78-4ef8-80fc-371ef18125a2","kind":"paragraph","order":1289,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"になりました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d6fedcf8-0c2d-4c4c-b1ee-3e5ce09ba923","kind":"paragraph","order":1290,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6a19cf0b-b132-4d53-b1aa-8d6c65291407","kind":"paragraph","order":1291,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"低損失光ファイバー\n＋\n室温CW半導体レーザー\n＝\n実用的な光通信","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_832287a1-c3b0-4e09-b854-9d0ea6aa4ef3","kind":"paragraph","order":1292,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"という関係です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0828e63-264f-4229-ad75-d3e4ee510a0d","kind":"paragraph","order":1293,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"CWレーザーの役割は時代によって変わった","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_418a7142-323e-4ec5-9b91-a849eb1d75bb","kind":"paragraph","order":1294,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"1970年代","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19472275-3751-44fb-ab98-13d5ade66a52","kind":"paragraph","order":1295,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"電話局間の長距離通信に使う光源。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d7883d8e-e879-4c08-8c59-bda8b4b22d45","kind":"paragraph","order":1296,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"1980～1990年代","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3cd30246-baef-43b7-963c-f58ed59fb5ed","kind":"paragraph","order":1297,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"海底ケーブル、幹線通信、WDMの安定光源。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9964ee7-4186-4748-904a-d238f8439de1","kind":"paragraph","order":1298,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"2000～2010年代","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d4d2acb-7bc4-42fb-912f-c9db6cd310ab","kind":"paragraph","order":1299,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"インターネットとデータセンターの光トランシーバー。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_731839da-6a99-45fd-827a-f8971245214b","kind":"paragraph","order":1300,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"2020年代","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ee29954-eb01-498b-9e50-84728c93c67e","kind":"paragraph","order":1301,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンフォトニクスやCPOへ連続光を供給する外部光源。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c4871c7-835c-4785-b863-57c12219df26","kind":"paragraph","order":1302,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"CWレーザーという基本機能は変わっていません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d2f9430c-c9fc-49c3-ba48-7aa9b9e933a8","kind":"paragraph","order":1303,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"変わったのは、光を届ける距離です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af4b72c6-92ad-4e69-adfe-7e8ee4449c98","kind":"paragraph","order":1304,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"通信局間\n→ 都市間\n→ データセンター間\n→ ラック間\n→ ボード間\n→ パッケージ間","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_be0bc03b-1111-4438-9387-084c0632ee6a","kind":"paragraph","order":1305,"section_id":"sec_d8ef6ba0-02c0-4b39-9493-bd0b60831a3a","character_id":null,"markdown":"光が計算機へ近づくほど、高出力、小型、低消費電力、高信頼性が求められるようになりました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_816b13f5-4e1d-4837-ac22-7685ee0e2df8","kind":"heading","order":1306,"section_id":"sec_3d64c8b2-5471-4645-96b0-fc702e3384ae","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜CWレーザーと光ファイバー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a56b4817-09e5-4b4f-a808-c0ab822bf886","kind":"figure","order":1307,"section_id":"sec_3d64c8b2-5471-4645-96b0-fc702e3384ae","character_id":null,"markdown":"![CWレーザーと光ファイバー 01](/media/5a775bcf3dc71f9dcfed5a9e3a90de8f0c943eadd9e10c0fcf6983428a00532c-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c217ce9e-7d06-48af-93d5-f0a435edf3d3","kind":"heading","order":1308,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 5．InP基板は、光ファイバーに適した波長を作るために重要になった","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d7d28ca-9a7a-45f3-a8e4-90f5e0e8b346","kind":"paragraph","order":1309,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"最初の半導体レーザーはGaAs系だった","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33974de1-63aa-40e4-a600-bb35c590ab51","kind":"paragraph","order":1310,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"初期の半導体レーザーでは、GaAsやAlGaAsが中心でした。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b2ca685d-819f-4189-acaf-842113de9711","kind":"paragraph","order":1311,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"GaAs系は発光しやすく、近赤外光源として優れていました。しかし長距離光ファイバー通信では、シリカファイバーの損失や分散が小さくなる1.3µm帯と1.55µm帯が重要になりました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8737e8c2-3673-46c7-9f1e-7a72f48343de","kind":"paragraph","order":1312,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"その波長帯を効率よく作る材料として発展したのが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b112e111-50a8-48a6-bcea-1a1bced07bef","kind":"paragraph","order":1313,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP基板","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c3512194-089a-4e8e-a450-f07539ee3572","kind":"paragraph","order":1314,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"InGaAsP活性層","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84846034-1344-4b7f-b198-edb33c7d869d","kind":"paragraph","order":1315,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"AlGaInAs活性層","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_28d8a3de-e208-4fb1-8bb0-0bd81910ebdf","kind":"paragraph","order":1316,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"InGaAs受光層","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b36d8abb-f8bc-4f3c-8ce8-569cc713d060","kind":"paragraph","order":1317,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_44636484-391d-4c4f-bc75-fc45771313fb","kind":"paragraph","order":1318,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"NISTは、InGaAsP合金が現代の光ファイバー通信の基礎材料になったと説明しています。(NIST)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d795733a-ebb2-4b67-981d-dae4d9ffd275","kind":"paragraph","order":1319,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPは土台であり、材料設計の基準","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb7c7069-9880-4f38-84cc-9cca1708ade1","kind":"paragraph","order":1320,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP基板の上に、InGaAsPなどをエピタキシャル成長します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dfac6924-2921-445e-ad43-5cd6376bd692","kind":"paragraph","order":1321,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"元素比率を変えることで、結晶格子をInPに合わせながら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_17ae2b60-f3cc-49c5-bbcd-7eae12dbe26e","kind":"paragraph","order":1322,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"1.3µm","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cff679e1-c06f-4341-84af-01f5c7ea4505","kind":"paragraph","order":1323,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"1.55µm","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_00a5ffa8-8737-4c4b-a9ee-657a6f36b481","kind":"paragraph","order":1324,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"受光波長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a9c9569b-83de-44f5-a99c-1870e7f85048","kind":"paragraph","order":1325,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"バンドギャップ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_29d21818-84c1-4614-96e7-e0431401a655","kind":"paragraph","order":1326,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"屈折率","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ba69c6e-3186-49cf-bf8a-d1084611df74","kind":"paragraph","order":1327,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"を調整できます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7355c1d2-0763-44fe-a543-5eda66a3a1c5","kind":"paragraph","order":1328,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP基板\n   ↓\nInPバッファ\n   ↓\nInGaAsP / AlGaInAs量子井戸\n   ↓\nInPクラッド","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_97f29b6b-0c47-4796-96ad-f3832c0927ff","kind":"paragraph","order":1329,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"住友電工は、光通信レーザーの品質がInPウェハーの結晶品質に強く依存し、単結晶インゴットの成長、切断、結晶方位、欠けやすさまで厳密な管理が必要だと説明しています。(Sumitomo Electric)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_23ef0157-5326-4d65-b7d2-6883e328ea55","kind":"paragraph","order":1330,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"なぜシリコン基板ではなくInPなのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d7378e9a-b20a-4071-b3b3-5fefd4e2cb75","kind":"paragraph","order":1331,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコン上へ直接高品質なInP系結晶を成長すると、格子定数や熱膨張係数の違いから欠陥が発生しやすくなります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a1d1cca5-5dff-4f24-a769-42bea2ddf7e8","kind":"paragraph","order":1332,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため長く、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e4b1071d-8487-43f3-94b7-6cddb53ed23e","kind":"paragraph","order":1333,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP基板上でレーザーを作る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3096d8e4-6d82-4db0-81ad-16c9d078f840","kind":"paragraph","order":1334,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"完成したレーザーをシリコン光回路へ接続する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9c0d615b-a356-492c-8242-f196c0be2157","kind":"paragraph","order":1335,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"方法が使われてきました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_60a5023b-e386-46fc-8a07-b2c32cff7af5","kind":"paragraph","order":1336,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"近年は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_90f0ca27-2d47-4dcc-984b-fa00ea24171a","kind":"paragraph","order":1337,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPダイをシリコンへ接合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_46286955-b1c2-4872-9e52-a9522cd25a26","kind":"paragraph","order":1338,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP薄膜をウェハーへ貼り合わせる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad366a2a-3e17-43b9-b0b4-5f54735ba4ee","kind":"paragraph","order":1339,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"III-V材料をSi導波路へ異種集積","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_824b878e-ea32-4046-a64e-5b31582c1ed6","kind":"paragraph","order":1340,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"量子ドットをSi上へ成長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3f7705dd-87ca-4624-8818-28fe1bfeaa49","kind":"paragraph","order":1341,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"といった技術が研究されています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_61759726-e1e8-4e51-9e67-5ceb7abff650","kind":"paragraph","order":1342,"section_id":"sec_fae2c3a6-c8f4-4b2b-bc41-6b71e9b81006","character_id":null,"markdown":"2006年にはUCSBとIntelの研究で、AlGaInAs系III-V材料とシリコン導波路を接合した電気駆動ハイブリッドレーザーが実証されました。(Bears)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f2dd41d3-cb34-4ff7-98dc-7a019a415238","kind":"heading","order":1343,"section_id":"sec_aa213319-c2c2-4902-8b47-160a4d498e9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜InP基板と通信波長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_711e6389-3ef5-4306-9d83-f4e13b3c4684","kind":"figure","order":1344,"section_id":"sec_aa213319-c2c2-4902-8b47-160a4d498e9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InP基板と通信波長 01](/media/de1f8f08d036fb737eef862e3c1d55328dd1edce9a3b7cc1089f1c3033fc77ce-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb5a5804-0c52-4325-9de7-e93ba1c5082b","kind":"heading","order":1345,"section_id":"sec_80d49267-87ca-4a74-8b4d-5c61706d394f","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 6．量子井戸は、少ない電流で効率よく光を作るために発展した","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0be10045-2c32-42ce-9898-fbbaa7ad9944","kind":"paragraph","order":1346,"section_id":"sec_80d49267-87ca-4a74-8b4d-5c61706d394f","character_id":null,"markdown":"初期のレーザー活性層は、比較的厚いバルク材料でした。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8515ecf-32c9-4f32-b7c7-099788d98248","kind":"paragraph","order":1347,"section_id":"sec_80d49267-87ca-4a74-8b4d-5c61706d394f","character_id":null,"markdown":"その後、結晶成長技術が進歩し、数nm単位の薄い層を作れるようになると、電子と正孔を非常に薄い領域へ閉じ込める量子井戸が使われるようになりました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e80bfe29-4bf4-41fe-a113-e9e187adcaea","kind":"paragraph","order":1348,"section_id":"sec_80d49267-87ca-4a74-8b4d-5c61706d394f","character_id":null,"markdown":"量子井戸によって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1b382b63-29ba-45b1-bb0c-01dbb1b227a2","kind":"paragraph","order":1349,"section_id":"sec_80d49267-87ca-4a74-8b4d-5c61706d394f","character_id":null,"markdown":"キャリア密度を高める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d44cdc69-7824-4c94-92d6-c896f4a5cee2","kind":"paragraph","order":1350,"section_id":"sec_80d49267-87ca-4a74-8b4d-5c61706d394f","character_id":null,"markdown":"しきい値電流を下げる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d3e2f98c-258d-435a-95de-3114a4f7cc73","kind":"paragraph","order":1351,"section_id":"sec_80d49267-87ca-4a74-8b4d-5c61706d394f","character_id":null,"markdown":"発光波長を精密に調整する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_97e6dc01-6d0b-4935-8851-3dae84b99717","kind":"paragraph","order":1352,"section_id":"sec_80d49267-87ca-4a74-8b4d-5c61706d394f","character_id":null,"markdown":"光利得を高める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_44a0c1c4-ff72-4d97-a790-68e20afdbcf2","kind":"paragraph","order":1353,"section_id":"sec_80d49267-87ca-4a74-8b4d-5c61706d394f","character_id":null,"markdown":"高速変調しやすくする","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_417a0ef5-f426-4152-af2a-980a4cabd6a6","kind":"paragraph","order":1354,"section_id":"sec_80d49267-87ca-4a74-8b4d-5c61706d394f","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことができます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9acfd8d6-de55-4ca4-85e2-d6096e63b425","kind":"paragraph","order":1355,"section_id":"sec_80d49267-87ca-4a74-8b4d-5c61706d394f","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらに複数の量子井戸を重ねたMQW、歪みを加えた歪み量子井戸、SCH、BH構造へ進化しました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_69037306-ef0e-4ce1-92d6-399f049dd825","kind":"paragraph","order":1356,"section_id":"sec_80d49267-87ca-4a74-8b4d-5c61706d394f","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここで目的は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b133fec3-425e-41bb-95c5-90c9b1b3bfb2","kind":"paragraph","order":1357,"section_id":"sec_80d49267-87ca-4a74-8b4d-5c61706d394f","character_id":null,"markdown":"光を強くするだけでなく、電子、正孔、光、電流をそれぞれ最適な場所へ閉じ込める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_50635cc1-79cc-4c24-8a1f-7bb6350ac904","kind":"paragraph","order":1358,"section_id":"sec_80d49267-87ca-4a74-8b4d-5c61706d394f","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことへ変わりました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e7c4c853-4d6e-43c7-876a-8a840e29ab42","kind":"heading","order":1359,"section_id":"sec_d17b666b-3567-4246-aca2-9e9b432e5fdf","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜量子井戸の効率","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3199577c-1892-46e1-9d83-58f7a75ec423","kind":"figure","order":1360,"section_id":"sec_d17b666b-3567-4246-aca2-9e9b432e5fdf","character_id":null,"markdown":"![量子井戸の効率 01](/media/38174c5d7991446abd6b6275e6925fe8e353192f6a03fb8c8625a53fce1e8df8-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15b16c03-e2a2-4c4f-a57f-475679893765","kind":"heading","order":1361,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 7．DFBレーザーは、光通信で使える安定した単一波長を作るために発展した","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_da0a5973-bda2-41f0-8e53-227480c94c4d","kind":"paragraph","order":1362,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"単純なFabry–Pérot型半導体レーザーは、複数の縦モードが発振しやすくなります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a6b7e48c-ca69-4a9f-88a3-59032c056407","kind":"paragraph","order":1363,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"短距離・低速用途では許容できても、長距離通信やWDMでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a820ef24-ec65-4e51-bbd7-16da790a66a6","kind":"paragraph","order":1364,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"波長が飛ぶ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8360377c-7516-40c9-a9a3-f6834a3ca54f","kind":"paragraph","order":1365,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"モードが競合する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_741a0b07-dbee-455a-96e4-b5f1f3533000","kind":"paragraph","order":1366,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"分散によって波形が崩れる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a3cbe3ab-864b-4a18-951a-510277449afa","kind":"paragraph","order":1367,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"隣接波長と干渉する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_823ea164-63f9-4ec1-8045-93ef414be2b0","kind":"paragraph","order":1368,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"という問題が生じます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_95ad5b57-8552-44b6-bf0f-95d98dc38f67","kind":"paragraph","order":1369,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこでレーザー内部に周期的な回折格子を設けたDFBレーザーが発展しました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a2bf9c31-17e6-4af7-8e60-0c31f3c538d1","kind":"paragraph","order":1370,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー全長に回折格子\n∧∧∧∧∧∧∧∧∧∧∧\n━━━━━━━━━━━━","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7e4061ac-eade-4ec0-a474-c34195e57db5","kind":"paragraph","order":1371,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"格子が特定波長だけを帰還することで、安定した単一モード発振を得ます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c403b8a-d38d-44b8-994a-d5c5c0df5f12","kind":"paragraph","order":1372,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本では旧東京工業大学の末松安晴氏らが、1978年に長波長DBRレーザー、1980年に高速直接変調下での単一モード動作、1983年に位相シフトDFBレーザーと波長可変レーザーを実証しました。これらの成果は後のWDM通信の基盤となりました。(International School of Cocoa and Tea)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_37f9ba6c-f3fe-4e2b-afeb-2d74b3a1cf81","kind":"paragraph","order":1373,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"当時の時代背景","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e7d7ea6b-4c36-4877-942f-b6dfa2b86a58","kind":"paragraph","order":1374,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"1980年代には、電話網のデジタル化と光ファイバー敷設が進んでいました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b5bdadc2-98c5-4a29-a0ec-5a1f8c78e6d7","kind":"paragraph","order":1375,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"求められたのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9f08e779-27ca-4883-80ea-854daaf4547f","kind":"paragraph","order":1376,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"長距離でも信号が崩れない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_799a7c52-b821-4269-8eaa-a8fdad48da82","kind":"paragraph","order":1377,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"温度が変わっても波長が安定","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2bcf803f-a0c5-40a4-89e6-74533de6f446","kind":"paragraph","order":1378,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"高速変調しても単一モード","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a3bd690a-c7d4-474c-ad0a-a94ba6986d2a","kind":"paragraph","order":1379,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"海底ケーブルでも長期間故障しない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12322deb-1ed2-43c9-9385-08b5f56539a5","kind":"paragraph","order":1380,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザーです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc4aaeb3-419c-4ff5-b366-24b5281388bb","kind":"paragraph","order":1381,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"この要求が、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_98c7e282-8996-47e0-85a5-c14fc1fa3ee0","kind":"paragraph","order":1382,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_07914fb3-6fce-408b-9677-b00b3d1a2a56","kind":"paragraph","order":1383,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"InGaAsP","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_294dd21e-000e-43a2-80f6-767bb0f36bc5","kind":"paragraph","order":1384,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQW","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6bba793b-d00e-4b0f-ab16-75d944b24c9a","kind":"paragraph","order":1385,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_05bcf454-ba04-40c3-98df-0e514c4fd479","kind":"paragraph","order":1386,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"λ/4位相シフト","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_826080d7-7167-4861-a020-ae64271e9e6d","kind":"paragraph","order":1387,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"BH再成長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_10259fee-6e4d-4368-9ce7-77ed070bfc45","kind":"paragraph","order":1388,"section_id":"sec_b0ee97da-4477-4312-96e6-66d8f5786331","character_id":null,"markdown":"を組み合わせる技術を発展させました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cccd4427-a2ce-4e7a-ba83-c48dd55253a1","kind":"heading","order":1389,"section_id":"sec_79a0b7f1-dda0-4544-a926-5d63cc087c75","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜DFBレーザーの単一波長化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e8fb4c4-40fd-41fc-9687-10cfce0bae96","kind":"figure","order":1390,"section_id":"sec_79a0b7f1-dda0-4544-a926-5d63cc087c75","character_id":null,"markdown":"![DFBレーザーの単一波長化 01](/media/a74cb7623a3c0f918eceeff73793e23ed125817839e4ec4473bdf4d187e2bf46-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3badbb5e-d614-416c-9c4c-5fe3ce0e7f6f","kind":"heading","order":1391,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 8．光変調は、レーザーを安定させたまま通信速度を上げるために発展した","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_75c72ce1-fc6a-43c0-84a0-b159a61c9267","kind":"paragraph","order":1392,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"最初はレーザーを直接オン・オフした","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c49f3e8b-96e4-4130-a144-0121b2d56a42","kind":"paragraph","order":1393,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"半導体レーザーへ流す電流を変えると、光出力も変わります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b8b10715-501c-44f8-ab78-690d404d66f3","kind":"paragraph","order":1394,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"電流を増やす → 光が強い\n電流を減らす → 光が弱い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a9329f1d-b431-4379-9f3c-85c898222020","kind":"paragraph","order":1395,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは直接変調です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_42ca52f8-424c-426f-b971-0c00aff7e993","kind":"paragraph","order":1396,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"構造が簡単で安価なため、現在も短距離通信で広く使われています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd51b175-9b73-409f-a4c1-af85b56a7aea","kind":"paragraph","order":1397,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし高速化すると、光強度だけでなく発振周波数や波長も変化します。これがチャープです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f241a65-1269-4960-90c7-92659712da37","kind":"paragraph","order":1398,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"長距離光ファイバーでは、チャープとファイバー分散が組み合わさり、パルスが広がります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d9db253d-4f17-4b8a-bc47-e3720ba35750","kind":"paragraph","order":1399,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"光源と情報書き込みを分離した","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef4e809f-b8e0-4815-b983-f86445c8e757","kind":"paragraph","order":1400,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5f18f935-13a6-4510-85d6-620fa5c67701","kind":"paragraph","order":1401,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"CWレーザー\n→ 安定した連続光を作る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_79855f83-ff1a-423b-9638-d9f539c1c7d4","kind":"paragraph","order":1402,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"外部光変調器\n→ その光へ情報を載せる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_95a0acb5-bc61-4173-8f8b-299730a77bf2","kind":"paragraph","order":1403,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"という分業が発展しました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b75fd25e-e3f7-4553-bafa-55142728dbcf","kind":"paragraph","order":1404,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー電流を大きく変化させないため、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_22714578-c318-46c1-bc06-56f8e14ece7c","kind":"paragraph","order":1405,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"波長を安定させやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f4a8934-6e92-4653-8525-fc856e7c4326","kind":"paragraph","order":1406,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"チャープを抑えやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b4d364f-16b8-405a-be64-c9f9e3dbc37b","kind":"paragraph","order":1407,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"高速化しやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_59b817f6-8c4e-4acd-8ed9-a8b710b74fa4","kind":"paragraph","order":1408,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"位相や多値信号も扱える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_91605c4f-f061-47d8-9d17-35025a5d7586","kind":"paragraph","order":1409,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"長距離通信に向く","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3484c329-1ea5-4cb6-9d1d-2489f85d1931","kind":"paragraph","order":1410,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"という利点があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_da7e9d8a-e903-4313-81fe-671459e52c01","kind":"paragraph","order":1411,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"光変調器の材料","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f0e4370-6904-440a-be25-0c797a7a6b3c","kind":"paragraph","order":1412,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"歴史的に、長距離通信では電気光学効果の大きいニオブ酸リチウムを使ったMach–Zehnder変調器が重要になりました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ea8a44b6-67b4-4f0f-8062-ee9acf204209","kind":"paragraph","order":1413,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"その後、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8184cd93-1f60-43e5-b319-3fa0e18d02c4","kind":"paragraph","order":1414,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP系EA変調器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_109da7b6-e576-49fb-b77b-c530297d6db2","kind":"paragraph","order":1415,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"EML","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb57ce5e-d302-4275-92f7-76bbfb5b8e94","kind":"paragraph","order":1416,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンMZM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c4a3f993-a86f-428d-b74b-136bcd9b0713","kind":"paragraph","order":1417,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンリング変調器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_390ea7f6-933c-434d-809f-330d8fb3c013","kind":"paragraph","order":1418,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"薄膜ニオブ酸リチウム","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0af4d1b7-ef83-4806-85f0-9bbb30d7dd74","kind":"paragraph","order":1419,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"III-V/Siハイブリッド変調器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_631db7cf-77dd-479c-8f94-636bfa6a4dda","kind":"paragraph","order":1420,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ選択肢が広がりました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_97eb86ea-4d23-4bff-9bf6-79f1555ee449","kind":"paragraph","order":1421,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"目的は一貫しています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e471950c-a060-49f9-a4f5-599d6c9d8b0b","kind":"paragraph","order":1422,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザーを光源として安定動作させ、別の高速素子で情報を載せる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f6ddecc-a7c4-4ae4-a522-630d418fa58f","kind":"paragraph","order":1423,"section_id":"sec_6b09f69f-fab6-47cd-95db-31b100a6d428","character_id":null,"markdown":"ということです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e52459c-8f05-4350-9a6d-4fde309eda69","kind":"heading","order":1424,"section_id":"sec_6a2cddb7-269f-437b-8f0c-d734ef4e3e8c","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜外部変調による高速化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2a07ab78-e21d-4e40-bf83-5c3e02a0558b","kind":"figure","order":1425,"section_id":"sec_6a2cddb7-269f-437b-8f0c-d734ef4e3e8c","character_id":null,"markdown":"![外部変調による高速化 01](/media/b924a77c09f91ec28c708d5487696bf1131574b2e813edf3aefc688912972344-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b09599dc-a890-4171-b34a-b732971f149c","kind":"heading","order":1426,"section_id":"sec_2484f265-0593-47fc-b601-99129f246f3b","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 9．光変調の目的は「オン・オフ」から「多値・位相制御」へ変化した","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_82c3f803-d4ac-48f5-973f-16c21b91ec6c","kind":"paragraph","order":1427,"section_id":"sec_2484f265-0593-47fc-b601-99129f246f3b","character_id":null,"markdown":"初期：OOK・NRZ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_541b6d9b-6926-4cd4-85d5-0dd23a223e13","kind":"paragraph","order":1428,"section_id":"sec_2484f265-0593-47fc-b601-99129f246f3b","character_id":null,"markdown":"光が強ければ1、弱ければ0という単純な方式です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_03e0bd1e-6cbc-46b9-8bf0-c025cf374871","kind":"paragraph","order":1429,"section_id":"sec_2484f265-0593-47fc-b601-99129f246f3b","character_id":null,"markdown":"1 0 1 1 0\n━ ─ ━ ━ ─","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71f2b83c-e68c-4c1e-8b9b-8b2276321cd2","kind":"paragraph","order":1430,"section_id":"sec_2484f265-0593-47fc-b601-99129f246f3b","character_id":null,"markdown":"高速化：PAM4","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f9b115a2-4335-4b49-8a4f-5a41f847085f","kind":"paragraph","order":1431,"section_id":"sec_2484f265-0593-47fc-b601-99129f246f3b","character_id":null,"markdown":"光強度を4段階に分け、一回の変化で2ビットを表します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84f4d519-4f26-4743-9e7d-c3eefe9f6103","kind":"paragraph","order":1432,"section_id":"sec_2484f265-0593-47fc-b601-99129f246f3b","character_id":null,"markdown":"レベル3 → 11\nレベル2 → 10\nレベル1 → 01\nレベル0 → 00","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2d5b4344-2b73-4925-bcef-e09375044ec0","kind":"paragraph","order":1433,"section_id":"sec_2484f265-0593-47fc-b601-99129f246f3b","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じ変調速度でも、NRZの約2倍のビットを運べます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a3a3644e-75b3-429c-9169-be3a0c34fd10","kind":"paragraph","order":1434,"section_id":"sec_2484f265-0593-47fc-b601-99129f246f3b","character_id":null,"markdown":"長距離・高容量：位相・振幅変調","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cbf0635d-301e-4269-b0e3-b4bb0c12ec43","kind":"paragraph","order":1435,"section_id":"sec_2484f265-0593-47fc-b601-99129f246f3b","character_id":null,"markdown":"コヒーレント通信では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_345f0406-fc5e-4c01-8539-43e054bf155c","kind":"paragraph","order":1436,"section_id":"sec_2484f265-0593-47fc-b601-99129f246f3b","character_id":null,"markdown":"振幅","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4bc00727-a676-49fc-af72-124fb8671bf2","kind":"paragraph","order":1437,"section_id":"sec_2484f265-0593-47fc-b601-99129f246f3b","character_id":null,"markdown":"位相","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8483ea74-debd-4374-abd6-38fd02cada1f","kind":"paragraph","order":1438,"section_id":"sec_2484f265-0593-47fc-b601-99129f246f3b","character_id":null,"markdown":"偏光","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9720dd34-2c09-4f91-a759-98125bb84b30","kind":"paragraph","order":1439,"section_id":"sec_2484f265-0593-47fc-b601-99129f246f3b","character_id":null,"markdown":"を組み合わせ、QPSKやQAMなどで情報量を増やします。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd28fa41-cec7-4342-8ce6-d4304adc9ee7","kind":"paragraph","order":1440,"section_id":"sec_2484f265-0593-47fc-b601-99129f246f3b","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、光変調器は単純な光スイッチから、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_49a8c75a-f2a2-405c-b218-c6ed875eb598","kind":"paragraph","order":1441,"section_id":"sec_2484f265-0593-47fc-b601-99129f246f3b","character_id":null,"markdown":"電気データを、光の強度・位相・偏光へ精密に写し替える装置","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0647a60-ab05-43bf-b6d3-47dd5afcbfcb","kind":"paragraph","order":1442,"section_id":"sec_2484f265-0593-47fc-b601-99129f246f3b","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ進化しました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84761b27-58b9-48b5-9563-f0681c77dde2","kind":"heading","order":1443,"section_id":"sec_f3fd7a32-4cd9-4d04-8daa-a1047fdb46ba","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜多値・位相変調","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc627b9e-c478-47ab-87e0-7fc411f446ec","kind":"figure","order":1444,"section_id":"sec_f3fd7a32-4cd9-4d04-8daa-a1047fdb46ba","character_id":null,"markdown":"![多値・位相変調 01](/media/abac9aa89229ffa8fd9bd40cc611f59d1f4fd61dadb0833b166d0d365c022914-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0cfdb98-c1e2-43e9-aeb0-ceae8053ca9d","kind":"heading","order":1445,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 10．シリコンフォトニクスは、光回路を半導体産業の量産方式へ持ち込むために発展した","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b10bebfd-0e0a-4574-9806-7d54d4f6d904","kind":"paragraph","order":1446,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来の光学部品は大きく、高価だった","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1008a4a4-1fb1-44f0-8a2c-b4090d906b47","kind":"paragraph","order":1447,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"初期の光通信装置では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7911affc-a4ab-4a99-973a-5c782569590a","kind":"paragraph","order":1448,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_df3bd293-b2c2-4c49-860e-e2eb0eeb788e","kind":"paragraph","order":1449,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"レンズ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6d48e6d2-a994-49ef-b0cd-5a7b73ce0d6e","kind":"paragraph","order":1450,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"フィルター","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c90c0bc-0312-43d0-9167-00ea1eff0049","kind":"paragraph","order":1451,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"分岐器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b7cb835a-c696-453c-b073-8f6a2acd874f","kind":"paragraph","order":1452,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"合波器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4196739b-7e5e-475d-ba7f-93a2da8ef29b","kind":"paragraph","order":1453,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"変調器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c8fa871-98fb-4821-8aa7-00330272b8d2","kind":"paragraph","order":1454,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"受光器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad016bf0-753a-485a-9d73-af46c89f67c2","kind":"paragraph","order":1455,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"が個別部品でした。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f5526672-b9ce-4743-8e8b-c1f6398a7d47","kind":"paragraph","order":1456,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"人間や高価な装置が位置合わせを行い、一つずつ組み立てる必要がありました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fab35745-107d-4337-8710-a7b5fa2eb123","kind":"paragraph","order":1457,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"通信容量が増えると、部品数、面積、消費電力、コストが問題になります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc65399d-ccd9-4387-acca-149ca896d130","kind":"paragraph","order":1458,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"光回路をチップへ集積する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3412f90d-a943-4aea-b333-743949aa5604","kind":"paragraph","order":1459,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンフォトニクスでは、シリコンまたはシリコン系材料上に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f26ba743-9a7c-45df-bcdc-cd547207e1e8","kind":"paragraph","order":1460,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"光導波路","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f2715b2f-4422-4162-b832-846a5a838587","kind":"paragraph","order":1461,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"MZM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15cd7c38-4c96-46f6-bb6b-522ddc2311a4","kind":"paragraph","order":1462,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"リング変調器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_67653e58-7a07-4195-af1a-a6dc39c4fcb3","kind":"paragraph","order":1463,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"分岐器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_35511e8c-86ff-4364-b5bd-394bc7483ce8","kind":"paragraph","order":1464,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"合波器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3abc1a05-12f2-4b0d-b4fe-020316cd2839","kind":"paragraph","order":1465,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"波長フィルター","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2ed265da-6865-44e7-8223-7606d245cf87","kind":"paragraph","order":1466,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Geフォトダイオード","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4569160a-e165-4c79-8b0e-5c58d253ad22","kind":"paragraph","order":1467,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"ファイバー結合器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_001152fa-3d03-4d92-9f81-3985b6d03418","kind":"paragraph","order":1468,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"を形成します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_72feddc4-b553-47f5-b6d0-918f460aef6f","kind":"paragraph","order":1469,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"この分野は1980年代のシリコン導波路研究から始まり、2000年代に高速変調器とIII-V/Si集積の進歩によって本格化しました。研究レビューでも、1.3µm・1.6µm帯のシリコン導波路研究が1980年代に始まったと整理されています。(Optica Publishing Group)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_35cfcf7e-08b7-4d9c-a79a-675c369afe63","kind":"paragraph","order":1470,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"2004年が重要な転換点","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_17b473de-0904-492a-9dd5-c93393d5be4a","kind":"paragraph","order":1471,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"2004年、Intelは1GHzを超えるシリコン光変調器を実証しました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_371fe7d4-7eb5-46d8-aaa6-44e6270ad852","kind":"paragraph","order":1472,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"それ以前のシリコン変調器は速度が低く、実用的なデータ通信には不十分でした。高速化によって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d0e94abc-8cae-4f11-b6e5-7642ee39c58f","kind":"paragraph","order":1473,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンCMOSに近い製造技術で、通信に使える光変調器を作れる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e1ce160-87d8-4a85-b899-66b967f7c0aa","kind":"paragraph","order":1474,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"可能性が明確になりました。(Intel)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b14d1f44-de9d-41c1-a92b-39ae247fe7bc","kind":"paragraph","order":1475,"section_id":"sec_f9157e51-0647-4854-b2d1-3045b009b61e","character_id":null,"markdown":"2006年には、III-V利得材料をシリコン導波路へ接合した電気駆動ハイブリッドレーザーも実証され、シリコンが苦手とする発光をIII-V材料で補う方向が示されました。(Bears)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c37ec94-c77c-4ec9-a205-2f81cf2273b8","kind":"heading","order":1476,"section_id":"sec_2b9e6c2f-e01f-4451-bf0b-f82a39f19f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜SiPhの量産技術","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd0425f5-da36-4736-bbdf-5c5fa9bf47b8","kind":"figure","order":1477,"section_id":"sec_2b9e6c2f-e01f-4451-bf0b-f82a39f19f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"![SiPhの量産技術 01](/media/4beced4f8a6b196af07eb560a0950c38b50044f55fc2235f1d1ba672390fc168-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_281bdbd5-f818-4890-92c8-0df3b17b284a","kind":"heading","order":1478,"section_id":"sec_29d48037-f89b-40b7-aa10-f6c1c7e140cd","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 11．シリコンフォトニクスは「すべてをシリコンにする技術」ではない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_50cea693-bcbe-40b4-b5bd-bc086a18c105","kind":"paragraph","order":1479,"section_id":"sec_29d48037-f89b-40b7-aa10-f6c1c7e140cd","character_id":null,"markdown":"名前から、レーザーまでシリコンだけで作るように感じますが、実態は異なります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8996287-7867-4980-8dfb-0d26fa38d71a","kind":"paragraph","order":1480,"section_id":"sec_29d48037-f89b-40b7-aa10-f6c1c7e140cd","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンフォトニクスの強みは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d2a1f15d-c30e-4f8e-ad49-82d27b2c281d","kind":"paragraph","order":1481,"section_id":"sec_29d48037-f89b-40b7-aa10-f6c1c7e140cd","character_id":null,"markdown":"光を導く","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93ae9def-9718-40be-9f66-24f3f8a19fd5","kind":"paragraph","order":1482,"section_id":"sec_29d48037-f89b-40b7-aa10-f6c1c7e140cd","character_id":null,"markdown":"光を分ける","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ecb6d6d8-98ba-4991-84cd-b2203b856c9b","kind":"paragraph","order":1483,"section_id":"sec_29d48037-f89b-40b7-aa10-f6c1c7e140cd","character_id":null,"markdown":"光をまとめる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7f889cb-766a-4c21-aea4-4b2bdea2e897","kind":"paragraph","order":1484,"section_id":"sec_29d48037-f89b-40b7-aa10-f6c1c7e140cd","character_id":null,"markdown":"光を変調する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_57153b92-761d-448f-94c7-60bd99f78986","kind":"paragraph","order":1485,"section_id":"sec_29d48037-f89b-40b7-aa10-f6c1c7e140cd","character_id":null,"markdown":"電子回路と高密度接続する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66e085bf-5f37-43e2-b454-7e1a9f4d46fa","kind":"paragraph","order":1486,"section_id":"sec_29d48037-f89b-40b7-aa10-f6c1c7e140cd","character_id":null,"markdown":"ウェハー単位で量産する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5eed6fbe-7934-45e3-927e-ea0cad75a248","kind":"paragraph","order":1487,"section_id":"sec_29d48037-f89b-40b7-aa10-f6c1c7e140cd","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_de54b405-0b9a-43c3-863f-f9ffb3c00ebf","kind":"paragraph","order":1488,"section_id":"sec_29d48037-f89b-40b7-aa10-f6c1c7e140cd","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方で、発光にはInP系III-V材料が有利です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7b8900cf-64fd-4bf6-8b7e-17bce67f3fcb","kind":"paragraph","order":1489,"section_id":"sec_29d48037-f89b-40b7-aa10-f6c1c7e140cd","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため現実の構成は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ba59a1a-2b0f-4c91-8d52-a4433ac7cb4d","kind":"paragraph","order":1490,"section_id":"sec_29d48037-f89b-40b7-aa10-f6c1c7e140cd","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP・III-V\n→ 光を作る、増幅する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9be4f6af-9b3e-499b-b93f-269baec28932","kind":"paragraph","order":1491,"section_id":"sec_29d48037-f89b-40b7-aa10-f6c1c7e140cd","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンフォトニクス\n→ 光を導く、変調する、分岐・合波する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b287486-4154-434f-95e9-5fa3f4dae931","kind":"paragraph","order":1492,"section_id":"sec_29d48037-f89b-40b7-aa10-f6c1c7e140cd","character_id":null,"markdown":"CMOS\n→ データを作る、制御する、信号処理する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a87544e0-75be-4424-9758-7ae04a6a8186","kind":"paragraph","order":1493,"section_id":"sec_29d48037-f89b-40b7-aa10-f6c1c7e140cd","character_id":null,"markdown":"という異種材料の協業です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9bd4d1cb-e78f-4d1e-afe9-9a8961be9423","kind":"paragraph","order":1494,"section_id":"sec_29d48037-f89b-40b7-aa10-f6c1c7e140cd","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intelも、シリコンフォトニクスを「シリコンの製造規模と光の能力を一つのチップへ組み合わせる」技術として説明し、2016年以降に量産展開を進めてきました。(Intel)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ded9987-b157-4c06-905e-d8a03ecf15d6","kind":"heading","order":1495,"section_id":"sec_2266298f-36cf-4349-8a70-56ae0c83faf8","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜SiPhと異種材料の分業","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b3f9fe99-8115-473f-b50c-b21fb9f0c8ba","kind":"figure","order":1496,"section_id":"sec_2266298f-36cf-4349-8a70-56ae0c83faf8","character_id":null,"markdown":"![SiPhと異種材料の分業 01](/media/f23c6e31e2e6880fe6ddd8e6f9fa5a6d4b125ff04498a05aebc3ee5c711c3e45-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_35eaccc9-2f66-46eb-9095-8355025a0d60","kind":"figure","order":1497,"section_id":"sec_2266298f-36cf-4349-8a70-56ae0c83faf8","character_id":null,"markdown":"![SiPhと異種材料の分業 02](/media/02c1fe5ceb7ccba2901e851a5e417ef5cca48d8dbf7a0eb28691858b72d19a21-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_de707921-9bea-4bd9-ab4a-4061941c7bcf","kind":"heading","order":1498,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 12．なぜ2000年代にシリコンフォトニクスが必要になったのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_31d183d8-da79-4569-b323-52c5d39a7845","kind":"paragraph","order":1499,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"プロセッサー内部より、データ移動が問題になった","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_582b7bc4-92cc-466d-8f92-3273d4ea9c0d","kind":"paragraph","order":1500,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"半導体のトランジスタ数は増えましたが、チップ間、基板間、サーバー間の電気接続には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_26d370c0-8d00-4d41-be2d-95c1679adab3","kind":"paragraph","order":1501,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"配線損失","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d600d617-2cdc-41a6-8872-b1fec3304ab2","kind":"paragraph","order":1502,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"クロストーク","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0f59296-e645-4177-aa02-dafc20b07b78","kind":"paragraph","order":1503,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"SerDes消費電力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b21adffe-becd-4877-a775-0291a30747cb","kind":"paragraph","order":1504,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"到達距離","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c233732-2c92-4f8b-8da0-bab1499a3bdd","kind":"paragraph","order":1505,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"コネクター密度","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a12827a1-11a7-4f12-ba80-05202e048a81","kind":"paragraph","order":1506,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"発熱","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5fdd7bf0-ac11-4c79-912e-3da56bb72122","kind":"paragraph","order":1507,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"という限界があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fa0c2fe9-c45d-403e-b2df-6b648071164a","kind":"paragraph","order":1508,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"マルチコア化、クラウド、動画配信、検索、SNSが拡大すると、計算そのものよりデータ移動が大きな課題になりました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_522c0abd-0fd6-4513-968a-0b0dfa98b3b8","kind":"paragraph","order":1509,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intelは2008年時点で、マルチコア計算機とデータ集約型用途には高速な光接続が必要になり、シリコンフォトニクスが低コストで主流コンピューティングへ光を持ち込む可能性を説明していました。(Intel)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a694fc4b-9138-4b09-b099-0fa4e44079ff","kind":"paragraph","order":1510,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"データセンターが最初の大市場になった","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc816824-5db3-4aa1-898a-5aff14755dc1","kind":"paragraph","order":1511,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"光をCPU内部へすぐ導入するより、まずサーバー間・ラック間接続へ使う方が実現しやすいためです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eb5c968a-6b08-4b2e-bf7c-1c0d31f9bf40","kind":"paragraph","order":1512,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"その結果、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c45bc3c9-11fc-46f5-9235-24a5cd3d8f7e","kind":"paragraph","order":1513,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"長距離通信\n→ メトロ通信\n→ データセンター間\n→ データセンター内部\n→ ラック間","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf729bcc-dd39-4c93-8722-2bd8e86c7b84","kind":"paragraph","order":1514,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"という順番で光化が進みました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd5c08cd-f9fa-45ba-8dd3-e30cb86a0910","kind":"paragraph","order":1515,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"13．2010年代は、光技術が通信装置から計算機産業へ移った時代","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2dd8081b-7c69-49a9-aa35-8fc01f160c28","kind":"paragraph","order":1516,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"クラウド事業者は巨大なデータセンターを建設し、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3dc6a78b-4f73-4d65-9e93-b3d07cf47d6c","kind":"paragraph","order":1517,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"100GbE","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b5b4d81-bb34-4f49-a586-69a05c015ead","kind":"paragraph","order":1518,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"200GbE","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f29953a5-0f75-4012-b85d-fff19854ab5a","kind":"paragraph","order":1519,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"400GbE","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3b077fe8-1b0d-454f-998b-48e277a8fd7b","kind":"paragraph","order":1520,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"800GbE","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f2d7142-0879-46ee-b29f-15071cd101dc","kind":"paragraph","order":1521,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ接続速度を高めました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd4da629-8a68-42a1-b3ce-a30395787b13","kind":"paragraph","order":1522,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンフォトニクスは、光トランシーバー内で、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_03d4bd68-8fcd-48f0-9102-9ae81837e737","kind":"paragraph","order":1523,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー光を受け取る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_91fadaac-cb46-4b39-8036-5dd0cb797175","kind":"paragraph","order":1524,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"複数レーンへ分ける","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_89f49d27-554a-44a1-88dc-ad4cf62187ce","kind":"paragraph","order":1525,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"光変調する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0728b705-e02c-493d-9817-9ba6574675dd","kind":"paragraph","order":1526,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"波長を合波する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19f8d4db-4f1a-47bf-99ac-60cb28b4f74d","kind":"paragraph","order":1527,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"受信光を検出する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c040dd3-d172-4a6a-be8b-153dae1b20af","kind":"paragraph","order":1528,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"役割を担うようになりました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9ec3878f-b166-42a6-b34c-29d527adfa35","kind":"paragraph","order":1529,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intelは2010年に、ハイブリッドレーザーを統合した50Gbpsシリコン光接続を実証し、光接続がコンピューター設計を変える可能性を示しました。(Intel)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f48bbe8-fb53-45d8-a639-96bd023bc709","kind":"paragraph","order":1530,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"この時代の目的は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_80835871-a166-45c1-854a-661ec964cc18","kind":"paragraph","order":1531,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"通信会社の幹線を高速化することから、データセンター内で大量のサーバーを安価につなぐこと","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c65af74-b2be-4117-b395-6a40ed770fc9","kind":"paragraph","order":1532,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ変わりました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_963e5ad9-a418-415f-a49c-2d1e57554e90","kind":"paragraph","order":1533,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"14．2020年代は、AIが光をパッケージ近くへ引き寄せた","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0230a843-81c2-4d83-8551-0d8e4e872c0b","kind":"paragraph","order":1534,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIクラスターでは、数千～数十万個規模のGPUやアクセラレーターがデータを交換します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7167b863-0de6-4072-af84-63b8fb893072","kind":"paragraph","order":1535,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"性能は一個のGPUだけでなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_564255b1-a7cd-46e2-b9f8-8de0147a9a7f","kind":"paragraph","order":1536,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU間帯域","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2d85cc2c-cae5-452f-9aab-e11c90626a13","kind":"paragraph","o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基板上\n→ ASIC近傍\n→ 同一パッケージ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_472a0e8a-d447-4551-8594-bf19aef3030a","kind":"paragraph","order":1545,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ近づけるCPOやOptical I/Oが注目されています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12de439c-5320-41c4-8da3-6038262f9ad7","kind":"paragraph","order":1546,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intelは2024年、シリコンフォトニック回路、レーザー、光増幅器、電子ICを組み合わせた光I/OチップレットをCPUと共同動作させる実証を発表しました。(Newsroom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4e33cc9c-9330-4549-a94f-11eb9b09f475","kind":"paragraph","order":1547,"section_id":"sec_47e7a176-c373-4adf-bf5b-e1702944c2b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI・HPC需要が、シリコンフォトニクスをデータセンターの通信部品から、計算パッケージの一部へ変えようとしています。(Intel)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d72a954-0a72-48da-8a61-574c746b8f7a","kind":"heading","order":1548,"section_id":"sec_bd64ce46-d775-46be-aa1b-4acf39a56f22","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜シリコン光回路とGe受光器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f0f4bac-6c6c-4b43-b680-3f7ef18519c2","kind":"figure","order":1549,"section_id":"sec_bd64ce46-d775-46be-aa1b-4acf39a56f22","character_id":null,"markdown":"![シリコン光回路とGe受光器 01](/media/067abdbd4b987bf42bfa51ad8c6e4608d1f4f7825dea5ee3d935d1381b348842-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bf2e7f15-1418-42d9-9b6e-b43bfc7f8617","kind":"figure","order":1550,"section_id":"sec_bd64ce46-d775-46be-aa1b-4acf39a56f22","character_id":null,"markdown":"![シリコン光回路とGe受光器 02](/media/57843ce250907cf7bd1c6f395a40d43a65902ea15de38775668dae3f464d6b57-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8bb7081-ef0a-4c89-bef3-7ffe295690b5","kind":"heading","order":1551,"section_id":"sec_3336717f-d09a-4ac8-b285-5edf6cba92d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 15．なぜ現在、CW InPレーザーが再び重要になったのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a32d5997-41c3-4cd5-b0c3-191926b4eea3","kind":"paragraph","order":1552,"section_id":"sec_3336717f-d09a-4ac8-b285-5edf6cba92d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンフォトニクスが大量に使われても、光源がなければ動きません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_94dd162a-8b3f-4fab-8392-b40f8eb8e0f3","kind":"paragraph","order":1553,"section_id":"sec_3336717f-d09a-4ac8-b285-5edf6cba92d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPOではASIC近傍が高温になるため、レーザーをASICから離し、比較的冷たい場所に置く外部レーザー方式が有力です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e2f4839c-4885-49d5-b5a4-1d98a1ce7b54","kind":"paragraph","order":1554,"section_id":"sec_3336717f-d09a-4ac8-b285-5edf6cba92d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"外部CW InPレーザー\n        ↓\n安定した連続光\n        ↓\n光ファイバー\n        ↓\nASIC近傍のシリコン変調器\n        ↓\nデータを載せた光","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_24039974-c618-4529-8635-a493cc08e603","kind":"paragraph","order":1555,"section_id":"sec_3336717f-d09a-4ac8-b285-5edf6cba92d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"この構成ではCWレーザーに、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e1cff146-c56c-40cd-a40d-aaedbcfa1275","kind":"paragraph","order":1556,"section_id":"sec_3336717f-d09a-4ac8-b285-5edf6cba92d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"高出力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bde7f2f5-e133-46a1-9b5c-5476b8669a85","kind":"paragraph","order":1557,"section_id":"sec_3336717f-d09a-4ac8-b285-5edf6cba92d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"狭線幅","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e46345a-17be-48aa-bb39-bdbc2bd29d92","kind":"paragraph","order":1558,"section_id":"sec_3336717f-d09a-4ac8-b285-5edf6cba92d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"低雑音","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4bf53d31-24e8-42e6-a12a-df9784e8c888","kind":"paragraph","order":1559,"section_id":"sec_3336717f-d09a-4ac8-b285-5edf6cba92d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"波長安定性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66d1ff19-1248-446c-8717-b388257d882c","kind":"paragraph","order":1560,"section_id":"sec_3336717f-d09a-4ac8-b285-5edf6cba92d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"高温信頼性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6e83ec11-4417-4491-b76f-d57d4d4d3cb8","kind":"paragraph","order":1561,"section_id":"sec_3336717f-d09a-4ac8-b285-5edf6cba92d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"長寿命","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_95cfb355-ac2e-4092-bf2b-222777ded38f","kind":"paragraph","order":1562,"section_id":"sec_3336717f-d09a-4ac8-b285-5edf6cba92d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"複数波長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_10646efb-38ed-440b-9b4e-11830e8ca519","kind":"paragraph","order":1563,"section_id":"sec_3336717f-d09a-4ac8-b285-5edf6cba92d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"低消費電力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af5d3576-5e1b-4595-8515-01d0c7887150","kind":"paragraph","order":1564,"section_id":"sec_3336717f-d09a-4ac8-b285-5edf6cba92d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"が求められます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66704238-43d7-4f87-8a3b-d47feb22afd5","kind":"paragraph","order":1565,"section_id":"sec_3336717f-d09a-4ac8-b285-5edf6cba92d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりCWレーザーは、昔の電話網と同じ「連続光を作る部品」ですが、現在は一個の光を多数の変調器へ分配し、AI計算システム全体を動かす光源になろうとしています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1740ad21-c58d-4396-9486-46dff7405703","kind":"heading","order":1566,"section_id":"sec_81cad71a-74e9-4383-9918-d5ca29987dfe","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 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↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3f583d96-4418-45e0-9b94-f5d9709e45b8","kind":"paragraph","order":1613,"section_id":"sec_4a5f712f-62d5-45ff-8607-efa282705aec","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP\n「通信に適した波長を出したい」\n        ↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_67536972-84d9-4e31-a3ee-68d7e7f05615","kind":"paragraph","order":1614,"section_id":"sec_4a5f712f-62d5-45ff-8607-efa282705aec","character_id":null,"markdown":"CWレーザー\n「光を安定して出し続けたい」\n        ↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2da7b88c-8400-49eb-a254-9840c8628b1c","kind":"paragraph","order":1615,"section_id":"sec_4a5f712f-62d5-45ff-8607-efa282705aec","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB・量子井戸・BH\n「波長、効率、寿命を改善したい」\n        ↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fe47e6e7-11f9-4287-9d83-c709a0436e85","kind":"paragraph","order":1616,"section_id":"sec_4a5f712f-62d5-45ff-8607-efa282705aec","character_id":null,"markdown":"光変調器\n「光源を乱さず高速に情報を載せたい」\n        ↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1889a282-bef7-48f0-aa43-5b93e627f56e","kind":"paragraph","order":1617,"section_id":"sec_4a5f712f-62d5-45ff-8607-efa282705aec","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンフォトニクス\n「多数の光機能を安く集積したい」\n        ↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71375571-dac8-4b8f-bb98-9a968ddda47d","kind":"paragraph","order":1618,"section_id":"sec_4a5f712f-62d5-45ff-8607-efa282705aec","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPO・Optical I/O\n「光を計算チップの直近まで持ってきたい」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2dc59e37-e7a7-4555-a357-fdc2a869c135","kind":"paragraph","order":1619,"section_id":"sec_4a5f712f-62d5-45ff-8607-efa282705aec","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって現在起きているのは、まったく新しい技術の登場というより、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f90d0330-1600-41c0-9e2f-434d751226e4","kind":"paragraph","order":1620,"section_id":"sec_4a5f712f-62d5-45ff-8607-efa282705aec","character_id":null,"markdown":"通信産業が50年以上かけて育てたInPレーザー、光変調、光回路の技術を、AI計算機産業が内部接続へ取り込む転換","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_99931bed-6a5d-426b-bc20-edbfe91e5f2d","kind":"paragraph","order":1621,"section_id":"sec_4a5f712f-62d5-45ff-8607-efa282705aec","character_id":null,"markdown":"です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f5da3fde-1995-4cb2-9d88-b20213a4a8c1","kind":"heading","order":1622,"section_id":"sec_1f42fe1f-ec4c-42ea-a342-82a10f36d01f","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜分業から統合へ進む光技術","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c07d5845-b373-40f8-b9d1-c33e5df88208","kind":"figure","order":1623,"section_id":"sec_1f42fe1f-ec4c-42ea-a342-82a10f36d01f","character_id":null,"markdown":"![分業から統合へ進む光技術 01](/media/b1c8e0a936b5610e0c139ad9494a406db60ef1b56befac298da46d666c3ac544-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_86ffb263-0d86-422b-aab3-fbefae965a2c","kind":"heading","order":1624,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 結論","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a65e3438-ebaf-4a0f-944a-ec9ea4f73d67","kind":"paragraph","order":1625,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"化合物半導体は、シリコンが苦手とする光と高速電子を扱うために発展しました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_235c6c8e-6e30-4a20-8e91-aa530d6230aa","kind":"paragraph","order":1626,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP基板は、光ファイバー通信に適した波長のレーザーと受光器を作る土台になりました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_229858af-7b0c-443c-893a-f67403886573","kind":"paragraph","order":1627,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"CWレーザーは、安定した光を長時間供給するために実用化されました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0a93a393-f0bf-4b4f-a521-ddb8af244722","kind":"paragraph","order":1628,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"光変調は、レーザー光を乱さずに高速な情報を載せるために発展しました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f5406fd0-89b3-4202-92a5-dddbeb3425c8","kind":"paragraph","order":1629,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンフォトニクスは、それらの光処理機能を小さなチップへ集積し、大量生産するために生まれました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0560ad6-b7a1-4379-bc47-69242ae41c8e","kind":"paragraph","order":1630,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"そしてAI時代には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56f2652c-65ae-4609-9ee1-9e5e3a9b624f","kind":"paragraph","order":1631,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPが光を作り、シリコンフォトニクスが光を加工し、CMOSが情報を作り、光ファイバーがそれを運ぶ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0c2707b-da37-4d66-b9fa-caaf9ed8b5bb","kind":"paragraph","order":1632,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"という異種材料の分業が、計算基盤そのものを支える構造になりつつあります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb09d838-3177-4743-8474-5b309fcbf3b7","kind":"paragraph","order":1633,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"世界のInP・MQW・DFB・シリコンフォトニクス研究と企業への接続","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e89f4ff-18cb-453e-a412-7ae5c4aebac0","kind":"paragraph","order":1634,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"基礎研究は、Coherent、Lumentum、Sivers、AAOIへどう受け継がれたのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_429d24ff-3dd7-49f3-893a-51d9449ba72c","kind":"paragraph","order":1635,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在の高出力CW-DFBレーザーやシリコンフォトニクスは、一社、一大学、一人の研究者が完成させた技術ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d4efe04b-a18d-480d-8878-816956dcf435","kind":"paragraph","order":1636,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"その基盤には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_572d3bc2-5a70-4d6c-bb64-90c8829af64c","kind":"paragraph","order":1637,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"半導体からレーザー光を発生させる技術","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2fdce09a-3140-4155-b289-b8dee65dbdb2","kind":"paragraph","order":1638,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"ヘテロ構造によるキャリアと光の閉じ込め","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_116d6006-ddef-4540-96c3-943cfed1a2e7","kind":"paragraph","order":1639,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQWによる利得設計","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_06da0caa-cf26-47ae-996c-69d3778406ea","kind":"paragraph","order":1640,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"SCHによる光モード設計","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef710bbd-09a2-48b8-a660-2be55cbf0634","kind":"paragraph","order":1641,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB格子による単一波長化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8307ec3d-9618-40d1-87da-12236b9c567d","kind":"paragraph","order":1642,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPによる1.3～1.55µm帯の発光","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c5a0fb3d-6068-492e-936e-f8c5ce473bb7","kind":"paragraph","order":1643,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"III-Vレーザーとシリコン光回路の統合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_68b7eafe-1775-40fe-8413-f2afb233dc91","kind":"paragraph","order":1644,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"複数波長レーザーを光I/Oへ供給する技術","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c30c887-8377-4dec-9394-4fa763db735b","kind":"paragraph","order":1645,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"という、半世紀以上の研究成果が積み重なっている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f0bc35a-9134-43b2-b88d-d3a5970a3671","kind":"paragraph","order":1646,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって企業とのつながりを見る際には、「この研究者の発明をこの会社がそのまま製品化した」という一対一の関係だけでなく、大学発スタートアップ、企業研究所、買収による技術統合、共同研究、製造技術への継承という複数の経路を区別する必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_48d07cc1-0208-4f55-a9cd-c389fce47bc5","kind":"paragraph","order":1647,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"1．1962年――半導体そのものをレーザーにする","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_abb9fc9a-36c0-4d9a-837e-5e3d849cfde6","kind":"paragraph","order":1648,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"1962年、General ElectricのRobert Hallら、IBMのMarshall Nathanら、MIT Lincoln LaboratoryのThomas Quistらが、ほぼ同時期にGaAs接合からレーザー発振を実証した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b85a9308-83d4-4585-9309-dee1cd311283","kind":"paragraph","order":1649,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは電流を流すだけで光を発生させる、半導体レーザーの出発点だった。当初の素子は低温・パルス動作が中心で、現在の通信レーザーとは性能も構造も大きく異なる。しかし、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6e3b02c-e333-4e73-adee-43a21a06da9e","kind":"paragraph","order":1650,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"半導体チップが、電気信号を直接コヒーレント光へ変換できる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_36797e77-420a-4aec-b6f2-108f88148187","kind":"paragraph","order":1651,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことを証明した意味は大きい。現在のInPレーザーも、原理的にはこの注入型半導体レーザーの延長にある。(Nature)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d54b1687-eeb0-43a2-849e-0e598ac7526e","kind":"paragraph","order":1652,"section_id":"sec_1a3f5fd7-b029-4ac8-bd8c-a77ef87098cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、初期レーザーは電子、正孔、光を狭い領域へ十分に閉じ込められず、発振に大電流が必要だった。この問題を解いたのが、ヘテロ構造である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bb89bcd6-c338-4061-b328-a7cffaa1d249","kind":"heading","order":1653,"section_id":"sec_b26aa2a3-e41e-4fd7-a243-9b7af6de5c93","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 2．KroemerとAlferov――MQW・SCHの大元となるヘテロ構造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a6d98df6-b2dc-4d57-9e42-7e7c52edd787","kind":"paragraph","order":1654,"section_id":"sec_b26aa2a3-e41e-4fd7-a243-9b7af6de5c93","character_id":null,"markdown":"Herbert KroemerとZhores Alferovは、異なるバンドギャップを持つ半導体を重ねたヘテロ構造によって、電子、正孔、光を薄い活性領域へ集中させる考え方を発展させた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9f362a30-dbcb-4aa6-8fdc-84522cbb76c7","kind":"paragraph","order":1655,"section_id":"sec_b26aa2a3-e41e-4fd7-a243-9b7af6de5c93","character_id":null,"markdown":"中央に狭いバンドギャップ材料、その上下に広いバンドギャップ材料を配置すると、電子と正孔は中央へ閉じ込められる。同時に屈折率差を利用して光も中央付近へ保持できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_67eee5e2-4569-4a05-b619-36b78f9241bc","kind":"paragraph","order":1656,"section_id":"sec_b26aa2a3-e41e-4fd7-a243-9b7af6de5c93","character_id":null,"markdown":"広いバンドギャップ・低屈折率\n──────────────────\n狭いバンドギャップ・高屈折率\n──────────────────\n広いバンドギャップ・低屈折率","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_190a8c54-ee41-4425-bf39-6b48b27e5066","kind":"paragraph","order":1657,"section_id":"sec_b26aa2a3-e41e-4fd7-a243-9b7af6de5c93","character_id":null,"markdown":"この二重ヘテロ構造によって、室温CW動作、低しきい値、長寿命化が可能になった。今日のMQW、SCH、クラッド構造は、基本的にはこの考えをさらに細分化し、電子と光の閉じ込めを別々に最適化したものだ。KroemerとAlferovは、このヘテロ構造研究によって2000年のノーベル物理学賞を受賞している。(Nobel Prize)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d01c4e4-e554-43fe-aabb-b8087077ad89","kind":"paragraph","order":1658,"section_id":"sec_b26aa2a3-e41e-4fd7-a243-9b7af6de5c93","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在の企業との関係は直接的な創業関係ではない。むしろ、Coherent、Lumentum、Sivers、AAOIを含むすべてのIII-Vレーザー企業が、この原理を製品構造として受け継いでいる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d9d635f9-1ca3-4fac-b2c7-f1ea808357d2","kind":"paragraph","order":1659,"section_id":"sec_b26aa2a3-e41e-4fd7-a243-9b7af6de5c93","character_id":null,"markdown":"たとえば現在のInPレーザーでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_675a9d6c-3191-4136-8901-8647a9c2927f","kind":"paragraph","order":1660,"section_id":"sec_b26aa2a3-e41e-4fd7-a243-9b7af6de5c93","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQWがキャリアと利得を制御","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_90600b64-ca3c-4aa4-9306-10c14b54e952","kind":"paragraph","order":1661,"section_id":"sec_b26aa2a3-e41e-4fd7-a243-9b7af6de5c93","character_id":null,"markdown":"SCHが光モードを制御","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4dad7610-56df-4dbd-a4d1-443e24944cb9","kind":"paragraph","order":1662,"section_id":"sec_b26aa2a3-e41e-4fd7-a243-9b7af6de5c93","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPクラッドが上下方向の光と電流を制御","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c33622b5-5594-4474-aad0-c66f97a83012","kind":"paragraph","order":1663,"section_id":"sec_b26aa2a3-e41e-4fd7-a243-9b7af6de5c93","character_id":null,"markdown":"BHが横方向の電流と光を制御","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_99c0c3b5-155b-426d-9de8-cf9f9cfb9449","kind":"paragraph","order":1664,"section_id":"sec_b26aa2a3-e41e-4fd7-a243-9b7af6de5c93","character_id":null,"markdown":"という形に発展している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b1d78c5a-8b9b-462b-8b5e-d8e9146aa598","kind":"heading","order":1665,"section_id":"sec_46b66b49-4e5e-47d3-8e1f-c86c113f975f","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜KroemerとAlferov","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ac072bc3-ebdf-43d8-b4e9-28314d885ee8","kind":"figure","order":1666,"section_id":"sec_46b66b49-4e5e-47d3-8e1f-c86c113f975f","character_id":null,"markdown":"![KroemerとAlferov 01](/media/e6bd9b57e695ae042d925fc461e124aad9fea0f0e0be21a96272c9ee618c4a99-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_00be1e74-c77c-42f1-8d5c-c5cee30b9b05","kind":"heading","order":1667,"section_id":"sec_1da1bd98-f16f-49d5-a95d-a9217e2f1228","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 3．江崎玲於奈、Raphael Tsu、Dingle、van der Ziel――量子井戸を活性層へ持ち込む","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0739a785-0df1-48ce-a8a2-f6c5ac71fd34","kind":"paragraph","order":1668,"section_id":"sec_1da1bd98-f16f-49d5-a95d-a9217e2f1228","character_id":null,"markdown":"1969～1970年、江崎玲於奈とRaphael Tsuは、異なる半導体を原子層単位で周期的に積層する人工超格子を提案した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84876cf6-aa82-4cda-92a7-7b0e3c08e460","kind":"paragraph","order":1669,"section_id":"sec_1da1bd98-f16f-49d5-a95d-a9217e2f1228","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは自然に存在する材料を使うのではなく、層厚と材料組成によって電子状態そのものを設計する発想だった。この研究から、量子井戸、超格子、量子細線、量子ドットへつながる低次元半導体研究が発展した。(Japan Prize)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9cc37ea0-711e-4dc2-aa14-6d9f063f486b","kind":"paragraph","order":1670,"section_id":"sec_1da1bd98-f16f-49d5-a95d-a9217e2f1228","character_id":null,"markdown":"Bell LaboratoriesではRaymond Dingle、Jan van der Zielらが1970年代に量子井戸構造の光学特性とレーザー動作を研究した。1975年には、GaAsの薄い量子井戸を多数含む構造で光励起レーザー動作が報告された。これは後の電流注入MQWレーザーへつながる重要な段階だった。(IEEE Milestones Wiki)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eaf67bb7-bd5f-4435-b380-309585c7a603","kind":"paragraph","order":1671,"section_id":"sec_1da1bd98-f16f-49d5-a95d-a9217e2f1228","character_id":null,"markdown":"量子井戸を使うと、井戸厚、組成、歪み、井戸数によって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f583a7be-4b5b-44d3-b654-4c9dc054d5ca","kind":"paragraph","order":1672,"section_id":"sec_1da1bd98-f16f-49d5-a95d-a9217e2f1228","character_id":null,"markdown":"利得スペクトル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f4e9b60-a695-48dc-81b0-defd68ec3bb0","kind":"paragraph","order":1673,"section_id":"sec_1da1bd98-f16f-49d5-a95d-a9217e2f1228","character_id":null,"markdown":"発振波長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_83ace334-8ac4-47cd-9c5e-09bbff16d50e","kind":"paragraph","order":1674,"section_id":"sec_1da1bd98-f16f-49d5-a95d-a9217e2f1228","character_id":null,"markdown":"微分利得","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4773c046-6703-4aea-9beb-e2f817d03002","kind":"paragraph","order":1675,"section_id":"sec_1da1bd98-f16f-49d5-a95d-a9217e2f1228","character_id":null,"markdown":"しきい値電流","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ed859930-1026-4cd9-a5b5-08d8ee85dfc3","kind":"paragraph","order":1676,"section_id":"sec_1da1bd98-f16f-49d5-a95d-a9217e2f1228","character_id":null,"markdown":"温度特性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_360478eb-fdf1-4e4f-bb75-d4939aa9d6f1","kind":"paragraph","order":1677,"section_id":"sec_1da1bd98-f16f-49d5-a95d-a9217e2f1228","character_id":null,"markdown":"偏光","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c08f28a6-9dbd-44ed-9c7e-adcc42bb4394","kind":"paragraph","order":1678,"section_id":"sec_1da1bd98-f16f-49d5-a95d-a9217e2f1228","character_id":null,"markdown":"を設計できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_278e0da7-7014-44de-a8d2-d1c4bcaf3180","kind":"paragraph","order":1679,"section_id":"sec_1da1bd98-f16f-49d5-a95d-a9217e2f1228","character_id":null,"markdown":"この技術が、CoherentやLumentumの高出力CWレーザー、Siversの多波長DFBアレイ、AAOIのデータセンター用レーザーに使われるMQW活性層の基礎となっている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c997ed0-5e2d-43cf-9614-a7ad837d50d6","kind":"heading","order":1680,"section_id":"sec_7e0fcdd9-4621-43f5-b3b9-7616498891d5","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜量子井戸を活性層へ持ち込んだ研究","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1223f870-8ca6-4c11-ad2e-975fed858a12","kind":"figure","order":1681,"section_id":"sec_7e0fcdd9-4621-43f5-b3b9-7616498891d5","character_id":null,"markdown":"![量子井戸を活性層へ持ち込んだ研究 01](/media/b0ca16754179e27d39b6ef5b1be76f91c08515e02602146b2036ccaad52a43c9-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7df8de7c-232e-4c8a-8a14-ade2a3a196a4","kind":"heading","order":1682,"section_id":"sec_f987101e-6c41-4e98-9201-fd358f6ba5f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 4．KogelnikとShank――DFBレーザーの基本原理を作る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_18decdec-761a-4501-a5ef-950c3b53e615","kind":"paragraph","order":1683,"section_id":"sec_f987101e-6c41-4e98-9201-fd358f6ba5f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Bell LaboratoriesのHerwig KogelnikとCharles Shankは、1971～1972年に周期構造による分布帰還レーザーを実証・理論化した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d1ad1cc-c8a8-44e1-a8f9-e4ad8a0f5b6d","kind":"paragraph","order":1684,"section_id":"sec_f987101e-6c41-4e98-9201-fd358f6ba5f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"通常のレーザーはチップ両端の鏡で光を往復させる。一方、DFBでは導波路全長にわたる格子が、小さなブラッグ反射を連続的に発生させる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d1cf0c91-c285-4546-85cd-2b732da62fbc","kind":"paragraph","order":1685,"section_id":"sec_f987101e-6c41-4e98-9201-fd358f6ba5f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"KogelnikとShankの結合波理論は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_59434234-c161-42d5-8aeb-0092140cb7f0","kind":"paragraph","order":1686,"section_id":"sec_f987101e-6c41-4e98-9201-fd358f6ba5f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"前方へ進む光","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b2b572ce-593c-4682-ba74-f7de3c40894d","kind":"paragraph","order":1687,"section_id":"sec_f987101e-6c41-4e98-9201-fd358f6ba5f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"後方へ進む光","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6235273e-2009-4656-8a0e-cbfd2b25bb77","kind":"paragraph","order":1688,"section_id":"sec_f987101e-6c41-4e98-9201-fd358f6ba5f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"格子による結合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cfd22d56-13a7-410e-834b-8685ec7d60d7","kind":"paragraph","order":1689,"section_id":"sec_f987101e-6c41-4e98-9201-fd358f6ba5f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFBの発振しきい値","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e66dad9-cb2e-43fe-9b1e-cc18a3d74856","kind":"paragraph","order":1690,"section_id":"sec_f987101e-6c41-4e98-9201-fd358f6ba5f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"ストップバンド","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f6fa8c0-6338-4671-961d-e752e8f8ba16","kind":"paragraph","order":1691,"section_id":"sec_f987101e-6c41-4e98-9201-fd358f6ba5f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"二つのバンド端モード","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd9714ad-1841-4aba-9d07-f5fd791ad866","kind":"paragraph","order":1692,"section_id":"sec_f987101e-6c41-4e98-9201-fd358f6ba5f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"を記述する基礎理論になった。(IEEE Spectrum)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ac6e776-5fed-42c1-a2e4-63cb6d46addf","kind":"paragraph","order":1693,"section_id":"sec_f987101e-6c41-4e98-9201-fd358f6ba5f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"この成果と現在の企業の関係は非常に直接的である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_80aeae5f-cfc4-4645-b054-bb0ec6b5cbbf","kind":"paragraph","order":1694,"section_id":"sec_f987101e-6c41-4e98-9201-fd358f6ba5f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coherent、Lumentum、Sivers、AAOIはいずれも、周期格子によって波長を選ぶDFBレーザーを製造・利用している。ただしKogelnikとShankの研究が特定企業へ独占移転されたわけではない。特許が切れた後、DFBは通信レーザーの業界共通技術になった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_00d1ab08-97c4-46c3-a046-bef3fe6d1bfc","kind":"heading","order":1695,"section_id":"sec_21ffc7eb-b242-401a-adbe-6f64546d9e7c","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜KogelnikとShank","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d5692c9-e179-4017-ac83-46cb38723979","kind":"figure","order":1696,"section_id":"sec_21ffc7eb-b242-401a-adbe-6f64546d9e7c","character_id":null,"markdown":"![KogelnikとShank 01](/media/7f3128760748ec8d0a922e7c90705b709226e80d0f19bfed93905fe5ab48166a-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_493573d3-4964-4382-a738-9b0006f1e64b","kind":"heading","order":1697,"section_id":"sec_91b768c7-a4af-4170-9bdc-b6c118493481","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 5．末松安晴――長波長単一モードと位相シフトDFB","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9ae59c11-e1be-4c74-b587-98504843f68a","kind":"paragraph","order":1698,"section_id":"sec_91b768c7-a4af-4170-9bdc-b6c118493481","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本の末松安晴氏らは、光ファイバー通信に適した長波長帯で、単一モードを安定して維持するレーザーを研究した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b258a30b-f37e-4240-8d1c-f10140163cd9","kind":"paragraph","order":1699,"section_id":"sec_91b768c7-a4af-4170-9bdc-b6c118493481","character_id":null,"markdown":"末松氏らの研究は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d549702-d9b6-4a84-84e4-13692fefe8b2","kind":"paragraph","order":1700,"section_id":"sec_91b768c7-a4af-4170-9bdc-b6c118493481","character_id":null,"markdown":"長波長DBRレーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bdd916a8-75bd-45f1-bcef-ad6e213c534f","kind":"paragraph","order":1701,"section_id":"sec_91b768c7-a4af-4170-9bdc-b6c118493481","character_id":null,"markdown":"高速変調中の単一モード動作","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_038dc0d6-f559-4cc8-bac3-d9d561fc78d3","kind":"paragraph","order":1702,"section_id":"sec_91b768c7-a4af-4170-9bdc-b6c118493481","character_id":null,"markdown":"位相シフトDFB","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6dceb15c-30c2-4774-9d9e-555aee702074","kind":"paragraph","order":1703,"section_id":"sec_91b768c7-a4af-4170-9bdc-b6c118493481","character_id":null,"markdown":"波長可変レーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e6be7c0f-9e2b-4e14-9a03-3cdbc799ddff","kind":"paragraph","order":1704,"section_id":"sec_91b768c7-a4af-4170-9bdc-b6c118493481","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ発展した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_39e8b13a-1f2e-49c3-abc7-2f4e80494b7e","kind":"paragraph","order":1705,"section_id":"sec_91b768c7-a4af-4170-9bdc-b6c118493481","character_id":null,"markdown":"一様なDFB格子では、ブラッグ波長の両側に二つのバンド端モードが現れる。格子中央へλ/4相当の位相変化を入れると、ストップバンド中央に一つの欠陥モードを形成できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_11504dc9-66b5-445c-aece-b94fdf96c928","kind":"paragraph","order":1706,"section_id":"sec_91b768c7-a4af-4170-9bdc-b6c118493481","character_id":null,"markdown":"一様DFB\n   モードA      モードB\n       │          │","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0c0b457-0e1a-4b6a-9044-5f5cab03e476","kind":"paragraph","order":1707,"section_id":"sec_91b768c7-a4af-4170-9bdc-b6c118493481","character_id":null,"markdown":"λ/4位相シフトDFB\n           │\n      中央欠陥モード","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_34131493-a301-4443-acf6-083294da4f6d","kind":"paragraph","order":1708,"section_id":"sec_91b768c7-a4af-4170-9bdc-b6c118493481","character_id":null,"markdown":"この研究は、今日の狭線幅・高SMSRのDFBレーザーへつながっている。特定の海外企業との直接的な資本関係はないが、Lumentum、Coherent、Siversなどが求める単一波長、高SMSR、WDM対応という製品要件の基礎に位置する。末松氏の動的単一モードレーザー研究は、長距離・大容量光通信への貢献として国際的にも評価されている。(ISCT RDC)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c83c0217-a4f5-4c94-b4d5-1be15f1de5c9","kind":"heading","order":1709,"section_id":"sec_c1d1df37-ce6b-4b7e-9edc-2ecd0cf7dd1a","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜位相シフトDFBの三段階","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c4b2f10-dcdb-4a18-ac39-0d7717a1a610","kind":"figure","order":1710,"section_id":"sec_c1d1df37-ce6b-4b7e-9edc-2ecd0cf7dd1a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![位相シフトDFBの三段階 01](/media/fc02b9473d54e7d7f5ddf97ffc902a6c8c5c504de0060ff2f6cbdbf77459a2ab-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_db04167e-eebc-448a-8344-abc855dcdd09","kind":"figure","order":1711,"section_id":"sec_c1d1df37-ce6b-4b7e-9edc-2ecd0cf7dd1a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![位相シフトDFBの三段階 02](/media/059f4aaf3db9004e00ea8ec56ea65b114ed2e00594d8c43fb459216daf221da8-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5c0209b-72ac-4c4e-bca1-171b0ac7f06a","kind":"figure","order":1712,"section_id":"sec_c1d1df37-ce6b-4b7e-9edc-2ecd0cf7dd1a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![位相シフトDFBの三段階 03](/media/4e999bacc935bb4a5c51d700e13c56088ba01af493d801e3812fb0369a27dca7-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a17d1f74-fde3-4705-a9a2-428b0feb5126","kind":"figure","order":1713,"section_id":"sec_c1d1df37-ce6b-4b7e-9edc-2ecd0cf7dd1a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![位相シフトDFBの三段階 04](/media/f5987f8f944ac18eb2fade69731e2b3c379b124e016d1c625c4a9a72807e9754-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d125dc7-5ddd-45b1-8f4b-489446628142","kind":"heading","order":1714,"section_id":"sec_62b75008-6413-4681-a297-b4ae391e83d8","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 6．Larry Coldren――InP光集積とLumentumへ続く直接的な研究系譜","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ae9acffe-837c-4c5b-acb0-062a3ee8f3c5","kind":"paragraph","order":1715,"section_id":"sec_62b75008-6413-4681-a297-b4ae391e83d8","character_id":null,"markdown":"企業とのつながりが最も明確な世界的研究者の一人が、UC Santa BarbaraのLarry Coldren氏である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ede1165c-78e3-430c-a9a4-769cdda18c11","kind":"paragraph","order":1716,"section_id":"sec_62b75008-6413-4681-a297-b4ae391e83d8","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coldren氏は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7b06a478-ff65-404f-895f-691555407967","kind":"paragraph","order":1717,"section_id":"sec_62b75008-6413-4681-a297-b4ae391e83d8","character_id":null,"markdown":"多電極波長可変レーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_10e2bbb6-ba96-4f44-b40a-3ac76275ec7e","kind":"paragraph","order":1718,"section_id":"sec_62b75008-6413-4681-a297-b4ae391e83d8","character_id":null,"markdown":"sampled-grating DBRレーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_82a7eb81-dba6-438d-88d6-685ed51082e1","kind":"paragraph","order":1719,"section_id":"sec_62b75008-6413-4681-a297-b4ae391e83d8","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP光集積回路","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ba127ec-090f-4fc3-881f-01f32ae050ed","kind":"paragraph","order":1720,"section_id":"sec_62b75008-6413-4681-a297-b4ae391e83d8","character_id":null,"markdown":"SOA・変調器・レーザーのモノリシック集積","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_36f44d7b-8a32-4d75-b5af-6555e5d8120e","kind":"paragraph","order":1721,"section_id":"sec_62b75008-6413-4681-a297-b4ae391e83d8","character_id":null,"markdown":"高効率VCSEL","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b19aabc0-01dd-4a45-82c1-d64bfe05984f","kind":"paragraph","order":1722,"section_id":"sec_62b75008-6413-4681-a297-b4ae391e83d8","character_id":null,"markdown":"を研究した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bf0e8ef0-e000-468b-95bd-88bc302ec68d","kind":"paragraph","order":1723,"section_id":"sec_62b75008-6413-4681-a297-b4ae391e83d8","character_id":null,"markdown":"Sampled-Grating DBR、SG-DBRでは、周期の異なる複数の反射器を組み合わせ、バーニヤ効果によって広い波長範囲を選択できる。これにより、一つのInPチップ上でレーザー波長をCバンド全体にわたって可変にする技術が発展した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e19f9965-d7a8-4bc4-9ceb-ef5565c48111","kind":"paragraph","order":1724,"section_id":"sec_62b75008-6413-4681-a297-b4ae391e83d8","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coldren氏は1998年、学生らとAgility Communicationsを共同創業した。Agilityは、SG-DBRレーザー、SOA、EA変調器などを一枚のInPチップへ集積した波長可変送信器を商用化した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_38a64795-c877-4d7c-a69b-edeb0d671f2f","kind":"paragraph","order":1725,"section_id":"sec_62b75008-6413-4681-a297-b4ae391e83d8","character_id":null,"markdown":"Agilityは2005年にJDSUへ買収され、JDSUの通信・レーザー事業は後にLumentumへ引き継がれた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6d68010a-9068-40df-a239-411033f72a3d","kind":"paragraph","order":1726,"section_id":"sec_62b75008-6413-4681-a297-b4ae391e83d8","character_id":null,"markdown":"Larry Coldren／UCSB\n        ↓\nSG-DBR・InP PIC研究\n        ↓\nAgility Communications\n        ↓ 2005年買収\nJDSU\n        ↓ 事業分離\nLumentum","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f70c729-76c3-4516-96ab-cb24bd63ba12","kind":"paragraph","order":1727,"section_id":"sec_62b75008-6413-4681-a297-b4ae391e83d8","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってLumentumには、大学発のInP波長可変レーザーと光集積技術が、企業買収を通じて直接流れ込んでいる。これは単なる「研究の影響」ではなく、特許、人材、製品、製造技術を含む明確な系譜である。(Larry Coldren Group)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ebfb1da9-eb28-46d7-9458-1b44bba24546","kind":"paragraph","order":1728,"section_id":"sec_62b75008-6413-4681-a297-b4ae391e83d8","character_id":null,"markdown":"Lumentumはその後OclaroとNeoPhotonicsを買収し、InPレーザー、EML、波長可変レーザー、コヒーレント部品の技術をさらに統合した。現在はCPO用の高出力CWレーザーも展開し、2026年には1310nmで25℃時1W超、50℃時800mW超、線幅100kHz未満、SMSR 40dB超の光源を示している。(Lumentum Investor Relations)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_db332400-d1d5-45d8-a34b-4037b7ff6fee","kind":"heading","order":1729,"section_id":"sec_932b2ad5-5ce2-47ed-8a27-1dd0bcebf167","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Larry ColdrenのInP光集積系譜","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b7f8c689-0d1f-40df-a69e-e8dd8e23e3cd","kind":"figure","order":1730,"section_id":"sec_932b2ad5-5ce2-47ed-8a27-1dd0bcebf167","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Larry ColdrenのInP光集積系譜 01](/media/d04fb799d955c5c6b7ed863ec830a78c2e4570f721fc3a83346f7bb0d77d37fb-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6979ff4a-0390-4f24-a0bc-4bfd5a21d52b","kind":"heading","order":1731,"section_id":"sec_59c4cff4-e974-4b3b-8cee-111cf4ff3120","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 7．荒川泰彦と榊裕之――量子ドットレーザーへ進む低次元活性層","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef103732-b6d7-4350-a93c-dadd24bd9e56","kind":"paragraph","order":1732,"section_id":"sec_59c4cff4-e974-4b3b-8cee-111cf4ff3120","character_id":null,"markdown":"1982年、荒川泰彦氏と榊裕之氏は、電子を三次元的に閉じ込めた量子ドットをレーザー活性層へ利用する理論を提案した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6fff2a3b-8896-4d4f-beb1-9b010da8addf","kind":"paragraph","order":1733,"section_id":"sec_59c4cff4-e974-4b3b-8cee-111cf4ff3120","character_id":null,"markdown":"量子井戸では電子の運動を一方向に制限するが、量子ドットでは三方向すべてを制限する。これにより電子状態密度が離散化され、しきい値電流や温度安定性を改善できる可能性が示された。(University of Tokyo)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_55cc7fcf-6ac6-4459-9024-c1679d1df89f","kind":"paragraph","order":1734,"section_id":"sec_59c4cff4-e974-4b3b-8cee-111cf4ff3120","character_id":null,"markdown":"この研究は富士通研究所との共同研究を経てQDレーザの設立へつながった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6aebbb4-76c2-4f2c-8e21-3c681cf96af0","kind":"paragraph","order":1735,"section_id":"sec_59c4cff4-e974-4b3b-8cee-111cf4ff3120","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coherent、Lumentum、Sivers、AAOIの主力通信レーザーは現状、量子井戸を中心としているが、量子ドットは今後、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_24892b9a-ff6e-48f3-9154-372954ce38ba","kind":"paragraph","order":1736,"section_id":"sec_59c4cff4-e974-4b3b-8cee-111cf4ff3120","character_id":null,"markdown":"高温動作","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41ff541f-1bcf-46cd-bddc-1a95ed4a49b2","kind":"paragraph","order":1737,"section_id":"sec_59c4cff4-e974-4b3b-8cee-111cf4ff3120","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコン上への直接成長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_70bddacf-18b1-4ce9-a728-589069d6bede","kind":"paragraph","order":1738,"section_id":"sec_59c4cff4-e974-4b3b-8cee-111cf4ff3120","character_id":null,"markdown":"欠陥耐性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b539d9f1-763b-435d-802d-76ed5e260c2b","kind":"paragraph","order":1739,"section_id":"sec_59c4cff4-e974-4b3b-8cee-111cf4ff3120","character_id":null,"markdown":"低しきい値","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_945b26db-0aac-4617-b5ce-17eae83fc4d1","kind":"paragraph","order":1740,"section_id":"sec_59c4cff4-e974-4b3b-8cee-111cf4ff3120","character_id":null,"markdown":"低雑音光源","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d45979a6-6e7b-4768-b8d4-3832e44e738a","kind":"paragraph","order":1741,"section_id":"sec_59c4cff4-e974-4b3b-8cee-111cf4ff3120","character_id":null,"markdown":"で重要になる可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_32a848a2-f3b4-4982-a9f2-e65471812162","kind":"paragraph","order":1742,"section_id":"sec_59c4cff4-e974-4b3b-8cee-111cf4ff3120","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって荒川・榊の成果は、現在の四社に直接組み込まれた技術というより、次世代のIII-V／Si光源を左右する研究系統である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4488573e-7738-48fe-b6c7-e98c5b3f4c4b","kind":"heading","order":1743,"section_id":"sec_e5a032de-c783-4e56-ac97-91ed755c8b9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜低次元活性層から量子ドットへ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c38b3fab-6008-4111-845b-1dbde2fd4f74","kind":"figure","order":1744,"section_id":"sec_e5a032de-c783-4e56-ac97-91ed755c8b9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![低次元活性層から量子ドットへ 01](/media/8651715b9a4942a882ec540d6c09da3c04400b0f742231e408eee4efb72d56cc-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c314ff7b-8a02-4054-ab06-2076b87869a3","kind":"heading","order":1745,"section_id":"sec_ac142b2f-7c2f-4d65-b265-e50156fc7cf8","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 8．Soref、Graham Reed、Michal Lipson――シリコンを光回路へ変える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_deb162f3-b66b-4f1a-8bc5-dc28a3b9547a","kind":"paragraph","order":1746,"section_id":"sec_ac142b2f-7c2f-4d65-b265-e50156fc7cf8","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPレーザーが光を作る一方、その光を変調・分岐・合波する役割をシリコンへ移したのがシリコンフォトニクス研究である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_39b28df6-ebbc-4df7-83c0-83ec5f2f1be0","kind":"paragraph","order":1747,"section_id":"sec_ac142b2f-7c2f-4d65-b265-e50156fc7cf8","character_id":null,"markdown":"Richard Sorefは1980年代から、シリコンやSiGeを使った導波路、変調器、受光器の可能性を体系的に示した。英国ではGraham Reed氏が1989年にシリコンフォトニクス研究グループを設立し、導波路、変調器、検出器、結合器、MUX、トランシーバーの研究を進めた。(University of Southampton)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_25a5a447-de21-4d53-805d-d210763f884a","kind":"paragraph","order":1748,"section_id":"sec_ac142b2f-7c2f-4d65-b265-e50156fc7cf8","character_id":null,"markdown":"Michal Lipson氏は、ナノスケールのシリコン導波路、リング共振器、高速変調器など、現在のシリコンフォトニクスPDKに不可欠な構成要素を開拓した。Columbia Universityは、Lipson氏をシリコンフォトニクスの主要な開拓者であり、GHz級シリコン変調器などの発明者と位置づけている。(Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b3bcbdf-0e3d-4d1e-8f75-4b864c733e78","kind":"paragraph","order":1749,"section_id":"sec_ac142b2f-7c2f-4d65-b265-e50156fc7cf8","character_id":null,"markdown":"これらの研究者とCoherent、Lumentum、Sivers、AAOIの関係は、主として補完関係である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e5fbb74-61c4-4c22-8a71-bebff62e4999","kind":"paragraph","order":1750,"section_id":"sec_ac142b2f-7c2f-4d65-b265-e50156fc7cf8","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンフォトニクス研究\n→ 光を導く・変調する・分岐する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_63758d5f-8538-4d69-9e24-beb82c54f9a2","kind":"paragraph","order":1751,"section_id":"sec_ac142b2f-7c2f-4d65-b265-e50156fc7cf8","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPレーザー企業\n→ 高品質なCW光を供給する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ffa42c56-0d4a-4752-923b-c87796920796","kind":"paragraph","order":1752,"section_id":"sec_ac142b2f-7c2f-4d65-b265-e50156fc7cf8","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコン光回路が普及するほど、外部InP CWレーザーの需要が増える。したがってシリコンフォトニクスはInPレーザーを代替するだけでなく、別置き光源や異種集積光源の市場を拡大した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ba7be457-bebc-4334-ba8f-bc6bce73be66","kind":"heading","order":1753,"section_id":"sec_25772c5c-1eff-427e-bc6d-ac88ef4992b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜シリコンフォトニクスの研究系譜","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f524650a-8de8-419d-bf94-6b1e885156da","kind":"figure","order":1754,"section_id":"sec_25772c5c-1eff-427e-bc6d-ac88ef4992b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"![シリコンフォトニクスの研究系譜 01](/media/951c7eae592916399660d68788e3ce1c7a8acb35e3ee119c44157157ac11d743-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c1fb155-2ab4-4d4a-927f-2e5ea6ac369f","kind":"heading","order":1755,"section_id":"sec_0b124dc8-a400-4f46-8146-6d591d8beff0","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 9．John Bowers――InPレーザーをシリコン上へ接合する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_97bf17cf-6d9b-414a-8064-0afeb02b4cfc","kind":"paragraph","order":1756,"section_id":"sec_0b124dc8-a400-4f46-8146-6d591d8beff0","character_id":null,"markdown":"John Bowers氏とUCSBの研究グループは、III-V材料とシリコンフォトニクスをウェハー接合で統合する技術を発展させた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bf8602fd-0a1e-4779-adf4-be3b365db3d7","kind":"paragraph","order":1757,"section_id":"sec_0b124dc8-a400-4f46-8146-6d591d8beff0","character_id":null,"markdown":"2006年にはIntelとの共同研究で、InP系活性層をシリコン導波路上へ直接接合したハイブリッドInP／Siレーザーを実証した。III-V層が光利得を作り、シリコン導波路が光モードと共振器を形成する構造である。(IEE UC Santa Barbara)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fc2aec85-7a77-48a4-b74c-827adced8473","kind":"paragraph","order":1758,"section_id":"sec_0b124dc8-a400-4f46-8146-6d591d8beff0","character_id":null,"markdown":"この成果は現在の、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_20077455-228e-4f9d-80a8-46452df21dd1","kind":"paragraph","order":1759,"section_id":"sec_0b124dc8-a400-4f46-8146-6d591d8beff0","character_id":null,"markdown":"III-V／Siハイブリッドレーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_86c771c3-be5f-4e25-a093-63bfffb7b7fc","kind":"paragraph","order":1760,"section_id":"sec_0b124dc8-a400-4f46-8146-6d591d8beff0","character_id":null,"markdown":"異種集積光源","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3761e0b3-62f8-49db-a3b2-df2995d136ea","kind":"paragraph","order":1761,"section_id":"sec_0b124dc8-a400-4f46-8146-6d591d8beff0","character_id":null,"markdown":"狭線幅レーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_334e30c0-133c-4a28-b9f8-56eed5c3490a","kind":"paragraph","order":1762,"section_id":"sec_0b124dc8-a400-4f46-8146-6d591d8beff0","character_id":null,"markdown":"SiN外部共振器レーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b67c3bd1-291a-4387-befb-a97888e3b88e","kind":"paragraph","order":1763,"section_id":"sec_0b124dc8-a400-4f46-8146-6d591d8beff0","character_id":null,"markdown":"光I/Oチップレット","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_230a6d08-5682-4f0c-b220-9b317ccbe1c9","kind":"paragraph","order":1764,"section_id":"sec_0b124dc8-a400-4f46-8146-6d591d8beff0","character_id":null,"markdown":"の基礎になった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef11905b-eb3a-449e-bf98-30aa9472a3ea","kind":"paragraph","order":1765,"section_id":"sec_0b124dc8-a400-4f46-8146-6d591d8beff0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Bowers氏は複数のスタートアップを設立しているが、Coherent、Lumentum、Sivers、AAOIとの直接的な創業関係は薄い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15794976-008e-4977-81c5-8033b7be5148","kind":"paragraph","order":1766,"section_id":"sec_0b124dc8-a400-4f46-8146-6d591d8beff0","character_id":null,"markdown":"関係はむしろ競争と補完である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd79326e-0d4d-4c0a-9959-cc80189d1e3f","kind":"paragraph","order":1767,"section_id":"sec_0b124dc8-a400-4f46-8146-6d591d8beff0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Bowers系：レーザーをシリコン上へ直接集積","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf1e9bab-c042-407c-b2b8-b98f4940f198","kind":"paragraph","order":1768,"section_id":"sec_0b124dc8-a400-4f46-8146-6d591d8beff0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Lumentum、Coherent：高出力外部CWレーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_055d7ef2-b037-47aa-bda2-4b0f8eb34d8c","kind":"paragraph","order":1769,"section_id":"sec_0b124dc8-a400-4f46-8146-6d591d8beff0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Sivers：InP DFBアレイをSiPhへハイブリッド実装","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eab5c06d-8ece-4cdb-a7cc-2ed74a4e11fe","kind":"paragraph","order":1770,"section_id":"sec_0b124dc8-a400-4f46-8146-6d591d8beff0","character_id":null,"markdown":"AAOI：低コストの自社製InPレーザーと光エンジン","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f6fe2b91-0d09-4ca8-9bf6-56c055ce1f08","kind":"paragraph","order":1771,"section_id":"sec_0b124dc8-a400-4f46-8146-6d591d8beff0","character_id":null,"markdown":"という、異なる集積方式を産業化している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e607c699-83b1-4d9b-aa97-6c7d53e93cc4","kind":"heading","order":1772,"section_id":"sec_4a20679e-7b1b-40c4-86a8-6e7a38aeaebe","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜InPレーザーのシリコン接合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd9e5f55-d41c-42a6-a49b-d8ed90fdb709","kind":"figure","order":1773,"section_id":"sec_4a20679e-7b1b-40c4-86a8-6e7a38aeaebe","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InPレーザーのシリコン接合 01](/media/db19fabefa570d073e488a15a7a9f4175a367f6787cbedffc3c80fec88270f8e-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_05d4aa12-8004-4aea-baa9-82a762cfe413","kind":"heading","order":1774,"section_id":"sec_0f923984-0b49-41a8-a35f-bfee58d674b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 10．Baets、Roelkens、imec――Siversへ直結する欧州の異種集積研究","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_49fc648b-58e6-417a-97d4-5dbeb5e70ff9","kind":"paragraph","order":1775,"section_id":"sec_0f923984-0b49-41a8-a35f-bfee58d674b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"ベルギーのGhent Universityとimecでは、Roel Baets氏、Gunther Roelkens氏、Dries Van Thourhout氏らが、シリコンフォトニクスとIII-Vデバイスの異種集積を研究してきた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c9512fda-f26b-44d4-a7ce-475ccdba3f46","kind":"paragraph","order":1776,"section_id":"sec_0f923984-0b49-41a8-a35f-bfee58d674b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"特にRoelkens氏らは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a71f3c29-d610-47a6-9a4a-46e1f4f911c6","kind":"paragraph","order":1777,"section_id":"sec_0f923984-0b49-41a8-a35f-bfee58d674b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"III-Vダイのウェハー接合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_955f2801-0124-4df8-b4d8-912541d1b8d9","kind":"paragraph","order":1778,"section_id":"sec_0f923984-0b49-41a8-a35f-bfee58d674b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"マイクロトランスファープリント","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41e59e5d-5874-4795-9c80-3e2565705c90","kind":"paragraph","order":1779,"section_id":"sec_0f923984-0b49-41a8-a35f-bfee58d674b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPレーザーとSi導波路のモード結合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7eccaa11-5adc-41d4-a7c3-029588e773ff","kind":"paragraph","order":1780,"section_id":"sec_0f923984-0b49-41a8-a35f-bfee58d674b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB・DBRレーザーのSi上集積","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d2cecb2-7100-48da-a977-5443d6276974","kind":"paragraph","order":1781,"section_id":"sec_0f923984-0b49-41a8-a35f-bfee58d674b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"受光器・SOAの異種集積","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21fc7da1-6030-4b2e-b02d-8e22e8f0c447","kind":"paragraph","order":1782,"section_id":"sec_0f923984-0b49-41a8-a35f-bfee58d674b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"を発展させている。(Photonics Research Group)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7b514e0b-68fc-42f0-8130-d4ca4e5735b8","kind":"paragraph","order":1783,"section_id":"sec_0f923984-0b49-41a8-a35f-bfee58d674b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"この研究系統はSiversと直接結び付いている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f1174a19-ad7d-438d-bda1-fec59a0afd73","kind":"paragraph","order":1784,"section_id":"sec_0f923984-0b49-41a8-a35f-bfee58d674b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"imec、Sivers Photonics、ASM AMICRAは、InP DFBレーザーダイを300mmシリコンフォトニクスウェハーへ受動位置合わせし、フリップチップ接合する技術を共同開発した。位置合わせ精度は500nm以内、Si光導波路への結合光は10mW超が報告されている。(imec)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fdc08470-338f-4766-aaec-43bbe0b7a36e","kind":"paragraph","order":1785,"section_id":"sec_0f923984-0b49-41a8-a35f-bfee58d674b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cccb6a4e-669c-4da9-8480-774165edf35c","kind":"paragraph","order":1786,"section_id":"sec_0f923984-0b49-41a8-a35f-bfee58d674b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"Ghent University／imec\n→ SiPh、異種集積、受動位置合わせ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c66e7bd3-a56d-4af3-b4a7-ca58bba47194","kind":"paragraph","order":1787,"section_id":"sec_0f923984-0b49-41a8-a35f-bfee58d674b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"Sivers Photonics\n→ InP DFBレーザー、量産ダイ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_de3e2129-e9c0-42ef-a96e-0e06f092069e","kind":"paragraph","order":1788,"section_id":"sec_0f923984-0b49-41a8-a35f-bfee58d674b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"ASM AMICRA\n→ 高精度フリップチップ実装","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_32f153a2-54bb-43d4-8cc2-3d0e946e1605","kind":"paragraph","order":1789,"section_id":"sec_0f923984-0b49-41a8-a35f-bfee58d674b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"という分業である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf9ee37e-a87f-45a3-9ccd-cb3a07cc02c3","kind":"heading","order":1790,"section_id":"sec_b07a074d-9662-43af-bcad-2d5171a0957a","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜欧州の異種集積研究","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ee64ff32-2e18-40a3-b600-178aacc7b6f0","kind":"figure","order":1791,"section_id":"sec_b07a074d-9662-43af-bcad-2d5171a0957a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![欧州の異種集積研究 01](/media/cdb9e207fde6816d14dda6c612356b0b5bd9ec96fb61df506fc8f98bf61376af-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_67735b3d-2d9e-4507-812f-b597ad9a13a6","kind":"heading","order":1792,"section_id":"sec_9af5cdec-598b-4aae-adf0-f5a759c39b52","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 11．MITの光I/O研究とAyar Labs――Siversの最大の接続先","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f3e92fe-6fa4-43ce-a4b7-f4728277acd6","kind":"paragraph","order":1793,"section_id":"sec_9af5cdec-598b-4aae-adf0-f5a759c39b52","character_id":null,"markdown":"Ayar Labsは、MITなどで行われた電子・光回路の同時集積研究を背景に設立された。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_882632c0-c62c-4650-ba05-e9f83302fd47","kind":"paragraph","order":1794,"section_id":"sec_9af5cdec-598b-4aae-adf0-f5a759c39b52","character_id":null,"markdown":"Chen Sun、Mark Wade、Alex Wright-Gladsteinらは、CMOSチップの近くへシリコンフォトニクス光I/Oを配置し、銅配線を光接続へ置き換える技術を商用化した。MITはAyar Labsを、長年の研究を基盤とするMIT発の光電融合スタートアップとして紹介している。(MIT News)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9009426b-0a75-42a6-95fc-aa36a8594dae","kind":"paragraph","order":1795,"section_id":"sec_9af5cdec-598b-4aae-adf0-f5a759c39b52","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただしAyarの光I/Oチップだけでは光を作れない。そのため外部多波長光源SuperNovaにはSiversのDFBレーザーアレイが採用されている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_48651971-46d3-414c-b931-f62cccb4abe3","kind":"paragraph","order":1796,"section_id":"sec_9af5cdec-598b-4aae-adf0-f5a759c39b52","character_id":null,"markdown":"Siversは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1aa7f94e-1c20-4eaa-bc1c-97b3dddb9120","kind":"paragraph","order":1797,"section_id":"sec_9af5cdec-598b-4aae-adf0-f5a759c39b52","character_id":null,"markdown":"8波長DFBアレイ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4e0af5f1-c3b6-482d-9bfc-76f94220c310","kind":"paragraph","order":1798,"section_id":"sec_9af5cdec-598b-4aae-adf0-f5a759c39b52","character_id":null,"markdown":"16波長DFBアレイ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4756061d-a4b5-42b3-a599-f33ca98f0201","kind":"paragraph","order":1799,"section_id":"sec_9af5cdec-598b-4aae-adf0-f5a759c39b52","character_id":null,"markdown":"400GHz間隔","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f5e428fd-6074-4117-b6c8-b380b64d4bc0","kind":"paragraph","order":1800,"section_id":"sec_9af5cdec-598b-4aae-adf0-f5a759c39b52","character_id":null,"markdown":"1300nm帯","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ccda9b6d-0b5c-4e2c-90e0-48e06cc0f1f5","kind":"paragraph","order":1801,"section_id":"sec_9af5cdec-598b-4aae-adf0-f5a759c39b52","character_id":null,"markdown":"1チャネル65mW超","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ec25d08-e65e-42eb-9ea1-a672c40b9af2","kind":"paragraph","order":1802,"section_id":"sec_9af5cdec-598b-4aae-adf0-f5a759c39b52","character_id":null,"markdown":"CW-WDM MSA準拠","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b7925351-9ac0-4b4e-9641-2bc2f23247e6","kind":"paragraph","order":1803,"section_id":"sec_9af5cdec-598b-4aae-adf0-f5a759c39b52","character_id":null,"markdown":"の光源をAyarと共同実証してきた。(Sivers Semiconductors)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fe3ae514-e700-4239-b950-271435002a26","kind":"paragraph","order":1804,"section_id":"sec_9af5cdec-598b-4aae-adf0-f5a759c39b52","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは現在のAI光I/Oにおける最も明確な産学・企業ネットワークの一つである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5a1515bc-6b49-46f6-8988-29607c09939d","kind":"paragraph","order":1805,"section_id":"sec_9af5cdec-598b-4aae-adf0-f5a759c39b52","character_id":null,"markdown":"MIT・UC Berkeley系の光I/O研究\n        ↓\nAyar Labs\n        ↓ 光源が必要\nSiversの多波長InP DFBアレイ\n        ↓\nSuperNova外部光源\n        ↓\nGPU・アクセラレーター光I/O","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c09070b9-c6b8-47af-91d0-402b15881c67","kind":"heading","order":1806,"section_id":"sec_5f5e43af-80a2-4e50-8ea4-c5e2db204a5a","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜MIT・Ayar Labsと光I/O","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_65f479e6-08c5-4e9a-875d-5b2c0543b9f9","kind":"figure","order":1807,"section_id":"sec_5f5e43af-80a2-4e50-8ea4-c5e2db204a5a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![MIT・Ayar Labsと光I/O 01](/media/60a953730c25ff511c87f58c29cdf9650bf8b4e9a777e3016731fd744972eb84-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ef754f1-251d-4164-9c2d-a0d9deb2eec3","kind":"figure","order":1808,"section_id":"sec_5f5e43af-80a2-4e50-8ea4-c5e2db204a5a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![MIT・Ayar Labsと光I/O 02](/media/b89c0fb77f50d6b8e4c89b07fda3a2a5058e63e9de181a245452f851738dc0e9-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3b438009-db17-47ee-a1b9-965236a124be","kind":"figure","order":1809,"section_id":"sec_5f5e43af-80a2-4e50-8ea4-c5e2db204a5a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![MIT・Ayar Labsと光I/O 03](/media/efb6c4e464b46e03330852955eac64a2ab7da790405e1258bc6c3e8966d2b089-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a9626048-d418-41a4-9684-70f0dd291429","kind":"figure","order":1810,"section_id":"sec_5f5e43af-80a2-4e50-8ea4-c5e2db204a5a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![MIT・Ayar Labsと光I/O 04](/media/e8a5699d6dfab2a695e6c7ecce4f5f20568ae9aeb247710eb1aa8a02e5c97f5f-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc75894a-5625-4556-80b2-4dad4c7f75bb","kind":"heading","order":1811,"section_id":"sec_d7d6abba-f037-4d79-b6ef-ccced59fdc92","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 12．Coherent――特定研究者の会社ではなく、技術を集約した産業プラットフォーム","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd891a4a-ff8f-4ce5-9d16-234d2d0fa171","kind":"paragraph","order":1812,"section_id":"sec_d7d6abba-f037-4d79-b6ef-ccced59fdc92","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coherentは、今回の四社の中では、特定の大学研究者から直接生まれた企業という性格が最も弱い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5acdf7f6-f78a-4d1c-9e36-812d6ee06698","kind":"paragraph","order":1813,"section_id":"sec_d7d6abba-f037-4d79-b6ef-ccced59fdc92","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のCoherent Corp.は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56d90967-bf33-4eb1-88ed-b639b34f4f88","kind":"paragraph","order":1814,"section_id":"sec_d7d6abba-f037-4d79-b6ef-ccced59fdc92","character_id":null,"markdown":"II-VIの化合物半導体・材料技術","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_97e98070-644d-4554-bc68-87918ebe3454","kind":"paragraph","order":1815,"section_id":"sec_d7d6abba-f037-4d79-b6ef-ccced59fdc92","character_id":null,"markdown":"Finisarの光通信・トランシーバー技術","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c2c9444f-43e0-423a-b20e-f0b919fb02ad","kind":"paragraph","order":1816,"section_id":"sec_d7d6abba-f037-4d79-b6ef-ccced59fdc92","character_id":null,"markdown":"旧Coherentのレーザー技術","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3657c607-9d3f-4941-8e76-f73025207576","kind":"paragraph","order":1817,"section_id":"sec_d7d6abba-f037-4d79-b6ef-ccced59fdc92","character_id":null,"markdown":"を企業買収によって統合した会社である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c69d8cdb-a079-4c63-9489-48316641b67a","kind":"paragraph","order":1818,"section_id":"sec_d7d6abba-f037-4d79-b6ef-ccced59fdc92","character_id":null,"markdown":"II-VIは2019年にFinisarを買収し、2022年に旧Coherentを買収した後、社名をCoherentへ変更した。(Coherent Inc)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_df35dcd4-a954-4c98-8e7c-5e7331cd057d","kind":"paragraph","order":1819,"section_id":"sec_d7d6abba-f037-4d79-b6ef-ccced59fdc92","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのためCoherentと研究者の関係は、個人の発明を直接事業化したというより、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_612efb49-adee-4601-800a-b5a12d3822cb","kind":"paragraph","order":1820,"section_id":"sec_d7d6abba-f037-4d79-b6ef-ccced59fdc92","character_id":null,"markdown":"世界各地で生まれたヘテロ構造、量子井戸、DFB、VCSEL、InPエピ、光モジュール技術を、買収と垂直統合で一つの製造体系へ集約した","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a33fa6a7-e014-4c48-a42e-f6ee7aa97f00","kind":"paragraph","order":1821,"section_id":"sec_d7d6abba-f037-4d79-b6ef-ccced59fdc92","character_id":null,"markdown":"と見るべきである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b531039e-3d02-4bb3-998e-7b765d70bce5","kind":"paragraph","order":1822,"section_id":"sec_d7d6abba-f037-4d79-b6ef-ccced59fdc92","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在Coherentは米国ShermanとスウェーデンJärfällaで6インチInP製造能力を構築しており、同社は従来比約4倍の生産能力とダイコスト削減を掲げている。また400mW級CWレーザー、200G EML、400G/lane向け差動EML、受光器などを展開している。(Coherent Inc)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_55441d23-bb05-45ca-ad6c-76aa682a80ae","kind":"paragraph","order":1823,"section_id":"sec_d7d6abba-f037-4d79-b6ef-ccced59fdc92","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coherentの研究上の価値は、新原理よりも、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_587ea157-9b48-4f86-b202-f6ec48376e44","kind":"paragraph","order":1824,"section_id":"sec_d7d6abba-f037-4d79-b6ef-ccced59fdc92","character_id":null,"markdown":"大口径InP化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84996162-dfc9-4b65-a69a-f98fbb4a6409","kind":"paragraph","order":1825,"section_id":"sec_d7d6abba-f037-4d79-b6ef-ccced59fdc92","character_id":null,"markdown":"面内均一性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0d84c917-65d2-4550-a14c-6d86d66f724f","kind":"paragraph","order":1826,"section_id":"sec_d7d6abba-f037-4d79-b6ef-ccced59fdc92","character_id":null,"markdown":"波長歩留まり","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_74a516f1-63cc-4ef3-a70a-708868ae3bb1","kind":"paragraph","order":1827,"section_id":"sec_d7d6abba-f037-4d79-b6ef-ccced59fdc92","character_id":null,"markdown":"高出力時の熱設計","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1fc66c08-2a89-4690-be59-f04e3a22898a","kind":"paragraph","order":1828,"section_id":"sec_d7d6abba-f037-4d79-b6ef-ccced59fdc92","character_id":null,"markdown":"自動検査","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_49b76010-2c5f-4652-8c27-280f8cdc8eef","kind":"paragraph","order":1829,"section_id":"sec_d7d6abba-f037-4d79-b6ef-ccced59fdc92","character_id":null,"markdown":"トランシーバーへの内部採用","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_79c8fc20-2365-455d-8b40-07699667bed1","kind":"paragraph","order":1830,"section_id":"sec_d7d6abba-f037-4d79-b6ef-ccced59fdc92","character_id":null,"markdown":"という量産工学にある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ca6435fc-a37f-49fa-b9e7-5b05b853c16e","kind":"heading","order":1831,"section_id":"sec_b0ebe0b0-1f3c-40f2-a98d-8603af9c0334","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 13．Lumentum――大学発InP PICと企業買収の両方を持つ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_90c34894-69e8-4e84-b514-9e4867f2047c","kind":"paragraph","order":1832,"section_id":"sec_b0ebe0b0-1f3c-40f2-a98d-8603af9c0334","character_id":null,"markdown":"Lumentumは、学術研究との直接的なつながりと、買収による技術集約の両方を持つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_10e62012-da55-4a51-b811-b26f5f6844e1","kind":"paragraph","order":1833,"section_id":"sec_b0ebe0b0-1f3c-40f2-a98d-8603af9c0334","character_id":null,"markdown":"直接的な系譜はColdren氏のAgility Communicationsである。これに加え、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5117cfbe-4e68-4ceb-b24a-c8a153fa09ae","kind":"paragraph","order":1834,"section_id":"sec_b0ebe0b0-1f3c-40f2-a98d-8603af9c0334","character_id":null,"markdown":"JDSUの光通信・レーザー事業","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a4c02ac7-b880-4ed8-91db-38dcf3999961","kind":"paragraph","order":1835,"section_id":"sec_b0ebe0b0-1f3c-40f2-a98d-8603af9c0334","character_id":null,"markdown":"OclaroのInPレーザー・EML・Fab能力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ae237f4-ee15-4348-ade5-8dc49bd539db","kind":"paragraph","order":1836,"section_id":"sec_b0ebe0b0-1f3c-40f2-a98d-8603af9c0334","character_id":null,"markdown":"NeoPhotonicsの波長可変・コヒーレント部品","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_98dd1e48-28db-40cb-b56a-6115ec9b11f7","kind":"paragraph","order":1837,"section_id":"sec_b0ebe0b0-1f3c-40f2-a98d-8603af9c0334","character_id":null,"markdown":"Cloud Lightのデータセンタートランシーバー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ec9a2951-1034-4897-b8bd-acb5fef1b420","kind":"paragraph","order":1838,"section_id":"sec_b0ebe0b0-1f3c-40f2-a98d-8603af9c0334","character_id":null,"markdown":"を取り込んでいる。(Lumentum)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_293abc3b-e4e5-4433-961a-4c6b7983d9aa","kind":"paragraph","order":1839,"section_id":"sec_b0ebe0b0-1f3c-40f2-a98d-8603af9c0334","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのためLumentumには、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3d2f2565-f294-4baf-a5d2-84b4219db90a","kind":"paragraph","order":1840,"section_id":"sec_b0ebe0b0-1f3c-40f2-a98d-8603af9c0334","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQW・BH・DFBレーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_23ac6e97-36fa-4580-a1c1-602dfb9c460b","kind":"paragraph","order":1841,"section_id":"sec_b0ebe0b0-1f3c-40f2-a98d-8603af9c0334","character_id":null,"markdown":"SG-DBR波長可変レーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5143411-d9d4-46d7-a52f-b1fabf6653b6","kind":"paragraph","order":1842,"section_id":"sec_b0ebe0b0-1f3c-40f2-a98d-8603af9c0334","character_id":null,"markdown":"EML","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c43d229b-102c-4509-9799-77501f4b3f91","kind":"paragraph","order":1843,"section_id":"sec_b0ebe0b0-1f3c-40f2-a98d-8603af9c0334","character_id":null,"markdown":"SOA","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_770103a5-06de-436f-bd8d-6baa36498921","kind":"paragraph","order":1844,"section_id":"sec_b0ebe0b0-1f3c-40f2-a98d-8603af9c0334","character_id":null,"markdown":"狭線幅コヒーレント光源","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f38f8e07-555f-44e2-aa50-f0fe73491e9a","kind":"paragraph","order":1845,"section_id":"sec_b0ebe0b0-1f3c-40f2-a98d-8603af9c0334","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPO外部レーザー源","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f57749b9-9c44-4898-8181-1f8bda18f300","kind":"paragraph","order":1846,"section_id":"sec_b0ebe0b0-1f3c-40f2-a98d-8603af9c0334","character_id":null,"markdown":"という複数の研究系譜が集まっている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d093b3dc-882e-44b0-b4ae-c3b1ef1de8ed","kind":"paragraph","order":1847,"section_id":"sec_b0ebe0b0-1f3c-40f2-a98d-8603af9c0334","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在の高出力CW製品も、同社によればEMLと同じDFBコアおよびBH構造を基礎にしている。これは、過去に通信向けEMLで蓄積したMQW、再成長、信頼性技術を、CPO用連続光源へ転用していることを意味する。(Lumentum)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_edd9ee6d-f994-4c9e-97fd-ca51f77c4ae2","kind":"heading","order":1848,"section_id":"sec_a4d70d02-c411-4e32-b646-68e06d65b6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 14．Sivers――大学スピンアウトからAI光I/Oへ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4a2d59c4-bb94-413b-b2d2-62c437ceb64d","kind":"paragraph","order":1849,"section_id":"sec_a4d70d02-c411-4e32-b646-68e06d65b6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Sivers Photonicsの前身CST Globalは、2001年にUniversity of Glasgowから化合物半導体技術を商用化するためのスピンアウトとして設立された。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e3727af3-30f7-489a-8869-4c3112e09477","kind":"paragraph","order":1850,"section_id":"sec_a4d70d02-c411-4e32-b646-68e06d65b6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"その後、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_17fa31e6-661a-4b75-80a9-3307eb47e972","kind":"paragraph","order":1851,"section_id":"sec_a4d70d02-c411-4e32-b646-68e06d65b6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPファウンドリー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d87cc482-adee-455f-8d3b-2d2de010e0a6","kind":"paragraph","order":1852,"section_id":"sec_a4d70d02-c411-4e32-b646-68e06d65b6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFBレーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc4e962d-ea37-4a69-9085-2e47547000f0","kind":"paragraph","order":1853,"section_id":"sec_a4d70d02-c411-4e32-b646-68e06d65b6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"SOA","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fbf8d052-4bc0-434c-a558-ac055388e55b","kind":"paragraph","order":1854,"section_id":"sec_a4d70d02-c411-4e32-b646-68e06d65b6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"100mm InPプラットフォーム","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bb436560-983c-4ae2-8138-a25d4917bedb","kind":"paragraph","order":1855,"section_id":"sec_a4d70d02-c411-4e32-b646-68e06d65b6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"月産100万個級のDFB生産","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_18be7772-0ce1-4deb-9ee3-79e2e28b00ae","kind":"paragraph","order":1856,"section_id":"sec_a4d70d02-c411-4e32-b646-68e06d65b6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ発展し、2017年にSiversへ買収された。(Sivers Semiconductors)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2d5d1248-6055-430f-8d8d-20683ba1d69b","kind":"paragraph","order":1857,"section_id":"sec_a4d70d02-c411-4e32-b646-68e06d65b6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Siversの企業構造は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b105547b-3e70-43a5-b49b-10e67d072353","kind":"paragraph","order":1858,"section_id":"sec_a4d70d02-c411-4e32-b646-68e06d65b6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"University of Glasgow\n        ↓\nCST Global\n        ↓\nInP DFB量産技術\n        ↓\nSivers Photonics\n        ↓\nimecとのSiPh異種集積\n        ↓\nAyar Labs向け多波長光源","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_53982afc-e644-4bbb-ad7c-f82ab3531665","kind":"paragraph","order":1859,"section_id":"sec_a4d70d02-c411-4e32-b646-68e06d65b6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"という非常に分かりやすい学術・産業系譜を持つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af7e4053-c677-47ef-b057-18934da92553","kind":"paragraph","order":1860,"section_id":"sec_a4d70d02-c411-4e32-b646-68e06d65b6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Siversの強みは、単一の超高出力レーザーより、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_05943ccd-bc8b-4fb1-bdaf-0dd8cea3f81b","kind":"paragraph","order":1861,"section_id":"sec_a4d70d02-c411-4e32-b646-68e06d65b6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"波長精度をそろえたDFBアレイ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_10009685-05cd-4b03-9fe1-812455d15aa1","kind":"paragraph","order":1862,"section_id":"sec_a4d70d02-c411-4e32-b646-68e06d65b6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"光I/O向けの多波長化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd322b79-3120-49a2-b9e8-16b6b6ed6fa0","kind":"paragraph","order":1863,"section_id":"sec_a4d70d02-c411-4e32-b646-68e06d65b6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"SiPhへ実装しやすいダイ構造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_732d3528-bcea-4907-b5f2-e4371fc936e0","kind":"paragraph","order":1864,"section_id":"sec_a4d70d02-c411-4e32-b646-68e06d65b6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"フリップチップ対応","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f65a30a5-5af5-40bb-bdfc-708c4e714ec7","kind":"paragraph","order":1865,"section_id":"sec_a4d70d02-c411-4e32-b646-68e06d65b6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"パッシブアライメント","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_69900309-1ffa-4dfd-9efc-8f100fc03017","kind":"paragraph","order":1866,"section_id":"sec_a4d70d02-c411-4e32-b646-68e06d65b6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"にある。(Sivers Semiconductors)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e90d93dd-a834-4e24-ab76-81af2d2c414b","kind":"heading","order":1867,"section_id":"sec_2f53dd2b-086a-499a-bb47-7032de98148f","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Siversと外部多波長光源","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f18c4823-754d-4948-ad56-3aa51b2ddac9","kind":"figure","order":1868,"section_id":"sec_2f53dd2b-086a-499a-bb47-7032de98148f","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Siversと外部多波長光源 01](/media/e149c4bf0beb160f3aaedebe314e7fc6ab99981e51b7a7fbdaa0567172733df2-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_30e4519b-5eb8-4603-821f-d7f53de6ad01","kind":"heading","order":1869,"section_id":"sec_0914d58a-5a8e-4405-b2aa-007157a96922","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 15．AAOI――大学研究室から垂直統合メーカーへ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dfc8f687-73d7-4c47-a035-2830353f2d6b","kind":"paragraph","order":1870,"section_id":"sec_0914d58a-5a8e-4405-b2aa-007157a96922","character_id":null,"markdown":"Applied Optoelectronics、AAOIは1997年、University of Houstonで半導体・レーザー技術を商用化するために設立された。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_68da95c9-2efd-4446-8492-49c2c36cc71c","kind":"paragraph","order":1871,"section_id":"sec_0914d58a-5a8e-4405-b2aa-007157a96922","character_id":null,"markdown":"創業者Thompson Lin博士はUniversity of Houstonで研究科学者、研究准教授を務めており、AAOIは大学発企業としての性格が明確である。(AOI)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0341bf74-0842-4d53-bfc4-719b9030cc6a","kind":"paragraph","order":1872,"section_id":"sec_0914d58a-5a8e-4405-b2aa-007157a96922","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらにAAOIの経営・技術陣には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd5eef0c-e2ae-4b06-b873-bcd5ca69d5ab","kind":"paragraph","order":1873,"section_id":"sec_0914d58a-5a8e-4405-b2aa-007157a96922","character_id":null,"markdown":"University of Houstonの研究者出身者","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d9951f99-689d-4139-a2d1-6771721d2016","kind":"paragraph","order":1874,"section_id":"sec_0914d58a-5a8e-4405-b2aa-007157a96922","character_id":null,"markdown":"Space Vacuum Epitaxy Center出身者","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b2e7151-86aa-4b57-a224-c8fc73b61f45","kind":"paragraph","order":1875,"section_id":"sec_0914d58a-5a8e-4405-b2aa-007157a96922","character_id":null,"markdown":"Bell Laboratories・LucentでMBE研究を担当した技術者","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0b3910dd-a048-4944-934c-fc9e53f0d421","kind":"paragraph","order":1876,"section_id":"sec_0914d58a-5a8e-4405-b2aa-007157a96922","character_id":null,"markdown":"が含まれる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6624ea37-db5d-4140-a61c-3fafb622f5c2","kind":"paragraph","order":1877,"section_id":"sec_0914d58a-5a8e-4405-b2aa-007157a96922","character_id":null,"markdown":"たとえば半導体製品担当のKlaus Anselm博士は、Bell LabsとLucentでMBEを使った基礎開発に携わり、その後AAOIで半導体製品を担当している。(AO Investors)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1812b58c-7426-446b-b0f8-781a846d2584","kind":"paragraph","order":1878,"section_id":"sec_0914d58a-5a8e-4405-b2aa-007157a96922","character_id":null,"markdown":"AAOIの特徴は、研究テーマを、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6e4292f8-ff67-4563-87a4-d71cc8afae38","kind":"paragraph","order":1879,"section_id":"sec_0914d58a-5a8e-4405-b2aa-007157a96922","character_id":null,"markdown":"エピタキシャル成長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c44efc8a-79a4-41a7-8b20-8db765452f91","kind":"paragraph","order":1880,"section_id":"sec_0914d58a-5a8e-4405-b2aa-007157a96922","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザーチップ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e75d0b0c-13f8-495a-8995-dff3c6979b1f","kind":"paragraph","order":1881,"section_id":"sec_0914d58a-5a8e-4405-b2aa-007157a96922","character_id":null,"markdown":"光エンジン","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21d47d0b-001e-4ed6-a1a2-d2582671d714","kind":"paragraph","order":1882,"section_id":"sec_0914d58a-5a8e-4405-b2aa-007157a96922","character_id":null,"markdown":"トランシーバー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ec9d6840-815f-4ac3-bda1-8c5cc6d8ae3c","kind":"paragraph","order":1883,"section_id":"sec_0914d58a-5a8e-4405-b2aa-007157a96922","character_id":null,"markdown":"ファイバー接続","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b83aac0-be1e-4834-88b8-ccbb0fe249bc","kind":"paragraph","order":1884,"section_id":"sec_0914d58a-5a8e-4405-b2aa-007157a96922","character_id":null,"markdown":"まで社内でつなぐ点にある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c3dd4c0-a18f-4d12-90cb-e18b451bba32","kind":"paragraph","order":1885,"section_id":"sec_0914d58a-5a8e-4405-b2aa-007157a96922","character_id":null,"markdown":"AAOI自身も、自社でレーザーと光エンジンを製造することが、コスト、開発速度、需要への対応力につながると説明している。(AO Investors)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ada1903a-a153-463a-af3d-56de2e4abbd9","kind":"paragraph","order":1886,"section_id":"sec_0914d58a-5a8e-4405-b2aa-007157a96922","character_id":null,"markdown":"CoherentやLumentumに比べれば規模は小さいが、レーザー内製比率が高いため、新しい高出力レーザーやデータセンター規格が成功した場合の業績感応度は大きい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ce48645b-cf49-42db-8e23-213d7ebf3014","kind":"heading","order":1887,"section_id":"sec_264209f7-74bb-49b6-bb49-016f1f89527f","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 16．四社の研究系譜を比較する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_727d454d-cdf9-48e7-ac07-25de527e8464","kind":"table","order":1888,"section_id":"sec_264209f7-74bb-49b6-bb49-016f1f89527f","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 企業           | 学術・研究との主なつながり                                            | 研究成果が現在表れている場所                       |\n| ------------ | -------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------ |\n| **Coherent** | ヘテロ構造、MQW、DFBなどをFinisar・II-VI・旧Coherentの買収で集約            | 6インチInP、CWレーザー、EML、受光器、トランシーバー       |\n| **Lumentum** | Larry Coldren／UCSB→Agility→JDSU→Lumentumという直接系譜          | InP PIC、SG-DBR、EML、BH-DFB、超高出力CW、ELS |\n| **Sivers**   | University of Glasgow→CST Global、imecとの共同研究、MIT発Ayarとの連携 | 多波長DFBアレイ、SiPhハイブリッド実装、外部光源          |\n| **AAOI**     | University of Houston発、Bell Labs・大学研究者を技術陣に持つ            | 自社エピ、レーザーFab、光エンジン、低コスト量産            |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3c661b8-f846-4df1-8cd3-68b1c96359ee","kind":"heading","order":1889,"section_id":"sec_43e22eee-de6a-475d-ae84-ee734a35ff65","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜研究成果が産業へ移る経路","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c59dd9ef-d204-4596-915b-c3eecefb00b9","kind":"figure","order":1890,"section_id":"sec_43e22eee-de6a-475d-ae84-ee734a35ff65","character_id":null,"markdown":"![研究成果が産業へ移る経路 01](/media/e873955e5b0262afbd0ddfebfea0711d45ec54c639a946674803df76c5ee21f1-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dc0ff835-8316-466e-9827-4796942ba2a5","kind":"heading","order":1891,"section_id":"sec_9fde1870-5b7a-4322-be30-86cc828b18e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 17．結論――研究者の成果は、企業ごとに違う形で産業化された","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e4a7f77a-da26-415d-a315-e1c9b3023140","kind":"paragraph","order":1892,"section_id":"sec_9fde1870-5b7a-4322-be30-86cc828b18e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"世界の研究成果と企業の関係を一つの流れにすると、次のようになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b21521e8-7835-4796-a253-f3e38ff91e68","kind":"paragraph","order":1893,"section_id":"sec_9fde1870-5b7a-4322-be30-86cc828b18e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"Hall・Nathan・Quist\n半導体レーザー\n        ↓\nKroemer・Alferov\nヘテロ構造とCW動作\n        ↓\n江崎・Tsu・Dingle・van der Ziel\n量子井戸とMQW\n        ↓\nKogelnik・Shank\nDFB格子\n        ↓\n末松安晴\n長波長・位相シフトDFB\n        ↓\nColdren\nInP PIC・波長可変レーザー\n        ↓\nSoref・Reed・Lipson\nシリコンフォトニクス\n        ↓\nBowers・Baets・Roelkens\nIII-V／Si異種集積\n        ↓\nMIT・Ayar Labs\nパッケージ内光I/O","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad549d60-6388-428f-b381-f7dfd97fcd13","kind":"paragraph","order":1894,"section_id":"sec_9fde1870-5b7a-4322-be30-86cc828b18e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"これを企業側から見ると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c86e862d-7cef-4306-8a9f-0330747b9aa3","kind":"paragraph","order":1895,"section_id":"sec_9fde1870-5b7a-4322-be30-86cc828b18e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coherentは世界の研究成果を大規模製造へ統合する会社","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b37efab0-00be-49ae-a356-10c9896bdfc6","kind":"paragraph","order":1896,"section_id":"sec_9fde1870-5b7a-4322-be30-86cc828b18e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"Lumentumは大学発InP PIC技術を直接受け継ぎ、高性能光源へ発展させた会社","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0016004d-7728-430f-a770-2577c628facd","kind":"paragraph","order":1897,"section_id":"sec_9fde1870-5b7a-4322-be30-86cc828b18e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"Siversは大学スピンアウトのInP Fabを、imecとAyarの光I/Oへ接続した会社","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_295865c6-8150-41ac-b62f-06e11d80a29e","kind":"paragraph","order":1898,"section_id":"sec_9fde1870-5b7a-4322-be30-86cc828b18e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"AAOIは大学研究室から始まり、レーザーから完成品までを内製化した会社","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd537dc4-0428-4bd9-81d7-bcc318a2e644","kind":"paragraph","order":1899,"section_id":"sec_9fde1870-5b7a-4322-be30-86cc828b18e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"と整理できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c2ef7a39-56d0-4eea-984d-1217219403a0","kind":"paragraph","order":1900,"section_id":"sec_9fde1870-5b7a-4322-be30-86cc828b18e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"最も重要なのは、これらの企業が単に「レーザーを作っている」のではないことだ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_74837bbb-8f3b-4461-a091-1c75ac9107e1","kind":"paragraph","order":1901,"section_id":"sec_9fde1870-5b7a-4322-be30-86cc828b18e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"量子井戸で利得を作り、SCHで光モードを整え、DFB格子で波長を選び、InP Fabで量産し、シリコンフォトニクスへ光を渡し、AI計算機内部の通信へ組み込む","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_407caafd-7402-4e01-85b8-2a56d139e27c","kind":"paragraph","order":1902,"section_id":"sec_9fde1870-5b7a-4322-be30-86cc828b18e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"という半世紀の研究成果を、各社が異なる方法で産業化しているのである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d23f5ef2-d51e-4b3a-9070-32a218d2c8b2","kind":"heading","order":1903,"section_id":"sec_cce7c0d9-8614-48d0-820a-638607ddc4b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜研究成果の産業化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd9df000-3161-4467-a284-2dc6bcc5f66a","kind":"figure","order":1904,"section_id":"sec_cce7c0d9-8614-48d0-820a-638607ddc4b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"![研究成果の産業化 01](/media/beecdd5f804fb980158568ca5d3e8441d4b1c1599a00ac5418dd6d3adbf47af1-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ab21dfd2-ab34-4001-8f1f-d2c01da94981","kind":"heading","order":1905,"section_id":"sec_12b11cc6-f322-4d97-bd7a-324d887a38f7","character_id":null,"markdown":"## さらに深める――InPレーザーは四つの技術系を同時に成立させる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_59375fb1-68ef-4e50-9de3-1887da8b7b4f","kind":"paragraph","order":1906,"section_id":"sec_12b11cc6-f322-4d97-bd7a-324d887a38f7","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPレーザーを一つの部品として見ると、競争力の源泉を見誤りやすい。実際には、少なくとも四つの技術系が重なっている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_60a52e5f-b10b-4fe5-b190-5c3b6fa89c5e","kind":"table","order":1907,"section_id":"sec_12b11cc6-f322-4d97-bd7a-324d887a38f7","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 技術系 | 中心課題 | 量産時の失敗 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 量子・材料 | MQW、組成、欠陥、利得 | 光が弱い、しきい値が高い |\n| 光学 | SCH、DFB格子、モード、波長 | 単一波長にならない、結合損失が増える |\n| 製造 | MOCVD、再成長、劈開、端面膜 | 面内ばらつき、歩留まり、信頼性が崩れる |\n| システム | SiPh実装、WDM、CPO、冷却、検査 | パッケージ全体で使えない |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_255fb30c-7e49-4329-962d-4f69817430f4","kind":"paragraph","order":1908,"section_id":"sec_12b11cc6-f322-4d97-bd7a-324d887a38f7","character_id":null,"markdown":"研究段階では一つの性能を上げられても、量産では四系統の最悪値が製品を決める。高出力化すれば熱と劣化が増え、波長を揃えれば製造ばらつきが厳しくなり、SiPhへ近づければ結合精度とパッケージ歩留まりが問題になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9a37e36b-98ba-45f8-bfd0-5b794b487677","kind":"paragraph","order":1909,"section_id":"sec_12b11cc6-f322-4d97-bd7a-324d887a38f7","character_id":null,"markdown":"このため、供給能力はMOCVD装置の台数だけでは測れない。エピ成長後のDFB形成、再成長、劈開、端面処理、光学試験、バーンイン、顧客認証まで流れて初めて、販売可能な一個になる。AI向け需要が急増した時、最初に詰まる工程と、最後に詰まる工程が違うこともある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3fafb344-8371-4e9c-940f-ed96a6f850bf","kind":"paragraph","order":1910,"section_id":"sec_12b11cc6-f322-4d97-bd7a-324d887a38f7","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPの戦略性は、希少な材料であることだけではない。半世紀の研究、装置条件、加工レシピ、信頼性データ、顧客認証が積み上がった製造知識が、短期間では複製しにくい点にある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0572cf9a-9620-4e4f-93ba-6efcf7ade18e","kind":"heading","order":1911,"section_id":"sec_57cde21a-3c68-4e5c-814b-359f1b38fad9","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"## 絶ノイアの観測","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aa878e16-7c9e-4924-b549-a740766b1af2","kind":"paragraph","order":1912,"section_id":"sec_57cde21a-3c68-4e5c-814b-359f1b38fad9","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"レーザーの断面は、きれいな多層ケーキに見えます。でも量産では、その一層ごとに別の失敗があります。MQWで光を作れても、SCHで閉じ込められなければ弱い。DFBで波長を選べても、再成長に欠陥があれば長く使えない。最後にファイバーへ光を渡せなければ、全部が未完成です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c03d10d1-e3a3-4745-8c80-f690b2f4386f","kind":"paragraph","order":1913,"section_id":"sec_57cde21a-3c68-4e5c-814b-359f1b38fad9","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"私は企業を見る時、最高出力の一行だけではなく、エピから検査まで何工程を自分で握っているかを見ます。AIが必要としているのは研究室で光る一個ではなく、同じ波長、同じ出力、同じ寿命で何十万個も並ぶ光源だからです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4721ea0b-5783-41be-acb8-0cdb1a455b65","kind":"heading","order":1914,"section_id":"sec_d1d493eb-bd66-466d-8100-05b02aba0887","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"## Sil-Kathnaの記録","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_53254633-e808-4fa7-8aee-f817ce5a2980","kind":"paragraph","order":1915,"section_id":"sec_d1d493eb-bd66-466d-8100-05b02aba0887","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"石の中に井戸を作り、電子を閉じ込め、光の道を一つだけ選ぶ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f62e4947-3d0e-460b-81fc-562645444cad","kind":"paragraph","order":1916,"section_id":"sec_d1d493eb-bd66-466d-8100-05b02aba0887","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"だが光は、理論だけでは都市へ届かない。結晶を育てる手、格子を刻む刃、再び石を覆う火、端面を割る技、長い時間を耐えさせる試験が要る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5dab2a17-4a2d-4b95-a76e-c775f1710e59","kind":"paragraph","order":1917,"section_id":"sec_d1d493eb-bd66-466d-8100-05b02aba0887","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"InPの価値は、赤き光を放つことだけではない。同じ光を、同じ名で、無数に生み続ける記憶が工場へ宿っていることにある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fdd7492c-6592-4fcc-8c42-51cff0c99e59","kind":"paragraph","order":1918,"section_id":"sec_d1d493eb-bd66-466d-8100-05b02aba0887","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"私は「AIインフラ」「InP」「CWレーザー」を三つの印として石板に刻む。異なる石と炉が同じ刻に門を開かなければ、構想はまだ文明の器にはならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_80970ae2-bda8-41ea-ad0b-d623b76cce9a","kind":"heading","order":1919,"section_id":"sec_5d063f1f-723e-4f8c-9952-e1e51ee20d65","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 二人の短い対話","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_75fe169c-c2e1-4e47-b679-3c3fe454b471","kind":"paragraph","order":1920,"section_id":"sec_5d063f1f-723e-4f8c-9952-e1e51ee20d65","character_id":null,"markdown":"**絶ノイア:** InPの供給能力は、ウェハー枚数だけでは測れません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d4ca28ea-a318-41e0-b899-ed4641e6f3b9","kind":"paragraph","order":1921,"section_id":"sec_5d063f1f-723e-4f8c-9952-e1e51ee20d65","character_id":null,"markdown":"**Sil-Kathna:** 石が多くても、正しい波長を持たねば門は開かぬ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5a61350c-82f8-42b0-a28c-8afd5ca9c738","kind":"paragraph","order":1922,"section_id":"sec_5d063f1f-723e-4f8c-9952-e1e51ee20d65","character_id":null,"markdown":"**絶ノイア:** 再成長、劈開、端面、検査、認証まで通った個数が本当の供給です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b63289a7-9862-4afb-9d7b-6c9c4a3e2a04","kind":"paragraph","order":1923,"section_id":"sec_5d063f1f-723e-4f8c-9952-e1e51ee20d65","character_id":null,"markdown":"**Sil-Kathna:** 光は生まれた時ではなく、遠くへ届いた時に完成する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_06ebe919-ddd8-4384-8793-f86f7711b4ab","kind":"heading","order":1924,"section_id":"sec_f83a3e2c-5e8d-4411-b453-b460b86e0680","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 観測メモ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_55755200-66fa-4ef3-842a-43b1ae3d3b7a","kind":"list","order":1925,"section_id":"sec_f83a3e2c-5e8d-4411-b453-b460b86e0680","character_id":null,"markdown":"- MQW、SCH、DFB、BH再成長を別の役割として理解する。\n- 高出力、波長精度、寿命、結合効率、歩留まりを同時に見る。\n- MOCVD能力だけでなく、劈開、端面膜、検査、バーンイン能力を追う。\n- SiPhはレーザーを不要にする技術ではなく、外部光源との統合を必要とする。\n- 企業の強さは設計IPだけでなく、製造レシピ、認証、垂直統合に宿る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_69ffd3e9-1b75-4c98-9281-9114c5acdf22","kind":"heading","order":1926,"section_id":"sec_f8e7a59a-f84e-45ba-b10f-436e836ae0ab","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 免責","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6aab31ff-d6df-4b90-9089-232040d0f669","kind":"paragraph","order":1927,"section_id":"sec_f8e7a59a-f84e-45ba-b10f-436e836ae0ab","character_id":null,"markdown":"この記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","render_override":null}],"audio":[],"omitted_media":[],"figures":[{"id":"plc_c404db53-b4e4-457e-9375-bea91035ceef","block_id":"blk_904d89a4-ce76-4e55-8eeb-7306fa4f1733","asset_revision_id":"avr_bfec8dcf-e524-4838-9ea4-2ecb86653c3e","asset_class":"other","caption":"","alt":"CWレーザーの基本 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AIデータセンターの光接続を基礎から理解する\n\nFRO・LPO・CPO・CW InPレーザー＋SiPh・VCSEL・DFB・EML、製造検査、米国規制、世界の光銘柄まで\n\nAIデータセンターの光接続を理解する際、最初に避けなければならないのは、異なる分類軸を同じものとして扱うことです。\n\nFRO・LPOは、主として「信号をどのように補償・再生するか」の分類です。\n\nPluggable・NPO・CPOは、「光エンジンをASICからどの位置に置くか」の分類です。\n\nDFB・EML・VCSEL・CW InPレーザー＋SiPhは、「光をどのように発生し、データを載せるか」の分類です。\n\nしたがって、例えば、\n\nFRO型SiPhトランシーバー\n\nLPO型SiPhトランシーバー\n\nVCSEL型NPO\n\nCW InPレーザー＋SiPh型CPO\n\nEML型Pluggable\n\nはいずれも成立します。\n\n本記事では、これらを一度分解し、最後に市場、供給網、規制、投資銘柄として再統合します。\n\n## 第1部　光トランシーバーの基本構造\n\n光トランシーバーは、電気信号を光信号へ変換し、反対側で光信号を再び電気信号へ戻す装置です。\n\n送信側\n\nスイッチASIC\n   ↓ 電気信号\nSerDes・信号補償\n   ↓\nレーザー／変調器\n   ↓\n光ファイバー\n\n受信側\n\n光ファイバー\n   ↓\nフォトダイオード\n   ↓\nTIA・信号補償\n   ↓\nスイッチASIC\n\n高速化するほど問題になるのは、単にレーザーの速度ではありません。\n\nASICから光モジュールまでのPCB配線損失\n\nコネクターでの反射\n\nクロストーク\n\n光素子の非線形性\n\nレーザー出力の温度変動\n\nフォトダイオードとTIAの雑音\n\n200G／400G per laneでの信号余裕\n\nモジュールの消費電力と冷却\n\nを、システム全体で処理する必要があります。\n\n### 図解｜光トランシーバーとAIデータセンター光接続\n\n![光トランシーバーとAIデータセンター光接続 01](/media/d98244e80575ab3f015f73a8caf29c32fc81dfc1f99794c4fe99173030c125e2-content.webp)\n\n![光トランシーバーとAIデータセンター光接続 02](/media/d45762d1d5f1991d46b25bb537afe71970f71c9063d853654575b3bebd717dc2-content.webp)\n\n![光トランシーバーとAIデータセンター光接続 03](/media/aec703395f9e0d04831cf3ce84cb4084cf880fa1867182ba6bb89b57e02c76fa-content.webp)\n\n## 第2部　FROとは何か\n\nFROは、一般にFully Retimed Opticsを意味します。\n\n従来の800G・1.6T Pluggableトランシーバーでは、モジュール内部にDSPやCDRが入っています。\n\nスイッチASIC\n   ↓\nPCB配線・コネクター\n   ↓\n┌──── FROモジュール ────┐\n│ DSP／CDR／Gearbox       │\n│ レーザードライバー      │\n│ レーザー・変調器        │\n│ PD・TIA                 │\n└─────────────────┘\n\nDSPは、基板を通過して崩れた波形を補償し、クロックを再生し、光素子の歪みを補正してから信号を作り直します。\n\nFROの長所\n\nホストASICや基板の違いをモジュール側で吸収しやすい\n\nマルチベンダー互換性を作りやすい\n\n長いPCB配線にも耐えやすい\n\n温度や部品ばらつきへの適応力が高い\n\nモジュール単体で性能を保証しやすい\n\n故障時にモジュールだけ交換できる\n\nFROの短所\n\nDSP・ADC・DAC・CDRが電力を使う\n\nDSPが大きな熱源になる\n\n遅延が増える\n\nモジュール単価が高くなる\n\n1.6T・3.2Tでは前面冷却が難しくなる\n\nFROは電力では不利ですが、Serviceability、相互運用性、製造歩留まり、システム責任の切り分けでは依然として強力です。\n\n### 図解｜FROの構造・長所・短所\n\n![FROの構造・長所・短所 01](/media/a5332d582efe1cba0644db172278da3989467dcf22ef1f508254c2723f1d197c-content.webp)\n\n![FROの構造・長所・短所 02](/media/36da66d85f0682c414e9c8e6afaf3a22c7f9133dda6a2c5ca817b0d2c97cb65e-content.webp)\n\n## 第3部　LPOとは何か\n\nLPOはLinear Pluggable Opticsです。\n\nOIFはLPOを、前面Pluggableでありながら、モジュール内にリタイマーを置かず、電気信号と光信号を線形に対応させる方式と定義しています。OIFの線形インターフェース規格も、光デバイス側のDSP・リタイマーを省き、ホストASICの等化能力を利用する方向で整備されています。(OIForum)\n\nスイッチASIC\n 強力なSerDes・FFE・DFE\n          ↓\n PCB・コネクター\n          ↓\n┌──── LPOモジュール ────┐\n│ 線形ドライバー          │\n│ 線形TIA                 │\n│ レーザー・変調器        │\n│ DSP・CDRなし            │\n└─────────────────┘\n\nLPOで「なくなるもの」\n\n主にモジュール内の、\n\n光DSP\n\nCDR\n\nADC／DAC\n\nGearboxの一部\n\nです。\n\nただしデジタル処理が完全に消えるわけではありません。\n\nEthernet PCSやFECは残り、補償機能の一部はホストASIC側へ移ります。\n\nLPOの長所\n\nモジュール電力を大きく下げられる\n\nDSPコストを省ける\n\n遅延が小さい\n\nPluggableの交換性を維持できる\n\nCPOより製造と保守が容易\n\nLPOの弱点\n\nASIC、PCB、コネクター、光モジュールが一つのアナログ経路になる\n\nホストSerDesへの依存が大きい\n\n部品ばらつきと温度変化が累積する\n\n組み合わせごとの認証が必要になりやすい\n\n200G／400G per laneでは信号余裕が小さくなる\n\nLPOは、\n\nCPOの省電力効果のうち、モジュールDSPを除去する部分を、Pluggableのまま獲得する技術\n\nです。\n\n一方CPOには、DSP除去だけでなく、ASICから光エンジンまでの高速電気配線を短縮する追加効果があります。\n\n### 図解｜LPOの構造・長所・弱点\n\n![LPOの構造・長所・弱点 01](/media/7a976e1c74e7e3137e59d28148f9cc0bee3ba78b4bd3ba83fb7ed756a5301487-content.webp)\n\n![LPOの構造・長所・弱点 02](/media/c5d40b1d951d681b7bd22128cf30d0ec5b9a5a967ea5f049b151a8b8e4ab3140-content.webp)\n\n## 第4部　NPOとCPO\n\nNPO\n\nNPOはNear-Packaged Opticsです。\n\nOIFの定義では、光エンジンがASICの近くにあるものの、ASICと同一パッケージには入っていない構造です。(OIForum)\n\nスイッチ基板\n\n┌── ASICパッケージ ──┐\n│ スイッチASIC         │\n└─────────────┘\n       │ 短い電気配線\n       ▼\n┌── NPO光エンジン ───┐\n│ SiPh／VCSEL／PD等    │\n└─────────────┘\n\nNPOはASICと光エンジンを個別に製造・検査できるため、CPOよりKnown Good Dieを使いやすく、修理・交換もしやすい構成です。\n\nCPO\n\nCPOはCo-Packaged Opticsです。\n\nASICと光エンジンを、共通のパッケージ基板、インターポーザ、またはMCM内に配置します。\n\n┌──── 共通パッケージ ────┐\n│                          │\n│   スイッチASIC           │\n│      │ パッケージ内配線  │\n│  光エンジン  光エンジン  │\n│                          │\n└────────────────┘\n       │\n   光ファイバー\n\nOIFは3.2T CPOモジュール規格を定め、共通パッケージ近傍に高密度光I/Oを配置するための機械・電気・管理仕様を整備しています。(OIForum)\n\nNPOとCPOの境界\n\nNPO\nASICの近くにある\nただし別パッケージ\n\nCPO\nASICと同じパッケージ\nまたは共通インターポーザ上\n\n「何mm以内ならNPO」という統一された距離規定ではなく、パッケージ境界を共有しているかどうかが中心です。\n\nCPOでもレーザーは外へ出せる\n\nCPOだからといって、レーザーまでASIC横に置く必要はありません。\n\nOIFは外部CW光源をELSFPとして標準化し、外部光源からCPO光エンジンへ光を供給する管理構造を定義しています。(OIForum)\n\n前面ELSFP\nCW InPレーザー\n      ↓\n偏波保持ファイバー\n      ↓\nCPO内SiPh光エンジン\n\nこの方式なら、熱に弱く寿命部品でもあるレーザーだけを、前面から交換できます。\n\n### 図解｜NPO・CPOの構造と配置差\n\n![NPO・CPOの構造と配置差 01](/media/f256f6d8fecd8e46e2efcafa689c6b1986f7dcdaaf9dd28a4b6a53bc4b695c5c-content.webp)\n\n![NPO・CPOの構造と配置差 02](/media/034715beb336cca0962583020c8658e6a80a1e49c40ed0151eddd068384b1a20-content.webp)\n\n![NPO・CPOの構造と配置差 03](/media/11175a73d188fc6787f0f46203e8a72fbad9a216469f3cf36497f5c2c7ed2e60-content.webp)\n\n![NPO・CPOの構造と配置差 04](/media/3de6fc9eeb48a8bd0d1ebe328ea8007d7ddfb5739b0e779bff67892b3fee1e42-content.webp)\n\n## 第5部　DFBレーザーの基本原理\n\nDFBはDistributed Feedback Laserです。\n\n端面発光レーザーの導波路に周期的な回折格子を作り、特定の波長だけを強く帰還させます。\n\n端面\n │\n │  導波路\n │＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝\n       DFB回折格子\n\n発振波長は概略、\n\n$${\\lambda_{\\mathrm{B}}\\approx 2n_{\\mathrm{eff}}\\Lambda}$$\n\nで決まります。\n\n$${n_{\\mathrm{eff}}=\\text{導波路の有効屈折率}}$$\n\n$${\\Lambda=\\text{DFB格子周期}}$$\n\nDFBの役割\n\nDFBはレーザーの使い方そのものではなく、波長選択構造です。\n\nDFBレーザーは、\n\n電流を直接変調するDML\n\n一定光を出すCWレーザー\n\n後段にEAMを集積したEML\n\nとして利用できます。\n\n### 図解｜DFBレーザーの構造と発振原理\n\n![DFBレーザーの構造と発振原理 01](/media/6791536eb0c3c53fae74491e0094f060a7028600e4ec47ee6164b038991f0d44-content.webp)\n\n![DFBレーザーの構造と発振原理 02](/media/03f0f1a155bfbcea4bb212689873188c2ca2bfe3bcaaa153ff4e3c2a45c11051-content.webp)\n\n## 第6部　EMLとは何か\n\nEMLはElectro-absorption Modulated Laserです。\n\n一つのInPチップ上に、\n\nDFBレーザー\n     ↓ CW光\nEAM変調器\n     ↓\n高速光信号\n\nをモノリシックに集積します。\n\nLumentumの200G EMLも、波長固定DFBレーザーとEAMを一つの素子に組み合わせ、200G per laneの低チャープ信号を生成する構造です。(Lumentum)\n\nEMLの長所\n\n光源と変調器を一つのチップに集積できる\n\n外部光源や光分配器が不要\n\n低チャープ\n\n高い消光比\n\n100G・200G per laneに強い\n\nDR・FRの数百m～数kmに適する\n\nPluggableトランシーバーを比較的単純に構成できる\n\nEMLの難所\n\nDFB利得波長とEAM吸収端を合わせる必要がある\n\nDFBとEAMのエピ構造を同時に最適化する\n\n電気的分離と光学結合が必要\n\n再成長や導波路接続のばらつきが増える\n\nレーザー部とEAM部のどちらかが不良でもチップ全体が不良になる\n\n端面形成後まで完全な性能が分かりにくい\n\nEMLは完成度の高い技術ですが、1レーンごとにレーザーを必要とします。\n\n例えば8×200Gの1.6Tでは、原則として8個のEMLレーンを必要とします。\n\n### 図解｜EMLの構造・信号・用途・課題\n\n![EMLの構造・信号・用途・課題 01](/media/bd97856af321b167af29490567a956f8e853509a26e02f061f96a1dfe4242e17-content.webp)\n\n![EMLの構造・信号・用途・課題 02](/media/cc87431226f461399fc29de44f2136b2bf66e959bc6bfae2804c9138efe1be98-content.webp)\n\n![EMLの構造・信号・用途・課題 03](/media/9dc43de94e8a3e8b6f67e41be6b4f772cb2d445b543a349b352f18ce19ac58ef-content.webp)\n\n![EMLの構造・信号・用途・課題 04](/media/0fa011b8a65d4b662dbc1369f1246ae8934c81d655f3dbe94a704754fecfe5c7-content.webp)\n\n![EMLの構造・信号・用途・課題 05](/media/224bb65aab56255412b0587f1dd9b5c0e0a9115510c8e12168c4d84b69325072-content.webp)\n\n![EMLの構造・信号・用途・課題 06](/media/b5ee978a5458565c7cc2fc0c376bd003b34f38bbe86a17d82b82a32e1828b0a1-content.webp)\n\n![EMLの構造・信号・用途・課題 07](/media/9460d874dcd445e0d8846da12ca068a8c532f5d6a5be1d427a5faf1449c8e655-content.webp)\n\n## 第7部　CW InPレーザー＋SiPh方式\n\nこの方式では、InPレーザーは一定の連続光を出し、データ変調はSiPh側で行います。\n\n高出力CW InP DFBレーザー\n            ↓\n       SiPh光分配器\n    ┌────┼────┐\n    ↓    ↓    ↓    ↓\n Si変調 Si変調 Si変調 Si変調\n    ↓    ↓    ↓    ↓\n  光信号 光信号 光信号 光信号\n\nシリコンは優れた導波路や変調器を作れますが、効率よくレーザー発振できません。\n\nそこで、\n\n発光：InP\n\n導波路・分配・変調：シリコン\n\n電気処理：CMOS\n\nと役割を分けます。\n\nCoherentはSiPh用の400mW級CW InPレーザーを、LumentumはSiPh・CPO向けCWレーザーと1W級超高出力光源を展開しています。(Coherent Inc)\n\nなぜこの方式が主流候補なのか\n\n### 1．少数のレーザーを複数レーンで共有できる\n\nEMLやVCSELでは、原則としてレーンごとに発光素子があります。\n\nSiPhでは一つの高出力レーザーを複数の変調器へ分配できます。\n\n### 2．高いレーン速度に向く\n\n発光と変調を分離できるため、レーザーを安定したCW状態で動かし、変調器だけを200G・400G per laneへ高速化できます。\n\n### 3．WDMを集積できる\n\nSiPh上にMUX／DEMUXを作り、複数波長を一本のシングルモードファイバーへまとめられます。\n\nλ1：200G\nλ2：200G\nλ3：200G\nλ4：200G\n     ↓\nSMF 1本で800G\n\n### 4．ファイバー本数を減らせる\n\nVCSELのWide-and-Slow方式では、多数の低速レーンと多数のファイバーが必要です。\n\nCW InP＋SiPhなら、高速化とWDMによって、Tbps当たりのファイバー本数を抑えやすくなります。\n\n### 5．SMFで距離を伸ばしやすい\n\n1310nm帯のCW InP＋SiPhは、シングルモードファイバーと組み合わせやすく、ラック内だけでなく、ラック間、列間、キャンパス内へ拡張できます。\n\n### 6．レーザーをASICの熱から離せる\n\n外部ELSFPを使えば、レーザーを高温のASICパッケージから外し、交換可能な低温領域へ配置できます。\n\n### 7．量産エコシステムが既に形成されている\n\nTSMCはCOUPEをCPOへ統合するロードマップを進め、2026年にパッケージ内CPOの生産開始を予定しています。STMicroelectronicsも200G per lane対応のPIC100を300mmラインで量産化し、2027年までに能力を4倍へ拡大する計画です。(pr.tsmc.com)\n\nLightCountingは、SiPh変調器を使うデータセンター向けPluggableの比率が、2025年の43％から2030年には76％へ上昇すると予測しています。(ST News)\n\n### 図解｜CW InP＋SiPhの役割分担と実装\n\n![CW InP＋SiPhの役割分担と実装 01](/media/d5631afed4d9026604f1c0c4c4e698f252a9b7ffe7ffa0784bd534e72c802d6c-content.webp)\n\n![CW InP＋SiPhの役割分担と実装 02](/media/0884f97c0e8d93e05b19423484b79b95298166f632f4f0c7f3b912d2d621b753-content.webp)\n\n![CW InP＋SiPhの役割分担と実装 03](/media/fe09149c85fa5ea2c93ea794e6df595a9a68a1fecbe0e0a3e4f61cd83d591ac9-content.webp)\n\n![CW InP＋SiPhの役割分担と実装 04](/media/57d019e756609603d53000a37282061e69fbde03067d499c6903e3ebf975a669-content.webp)\n\n![CW InP＋SiPhの役割分担と実装 05](/media/7dc1c34ab620f0e241b0ea2a3345ef83a5c91eead05d49e2f3063c78c9a41fb0-content.webp)\n\n## 第8部　VCSELとは何か\n\nVCSELはVertical-Cavity Surface-Emitting Laserです。\n\n端面ではなく、ウェハー表面に対して垂直に光を出します。\n\n光\n             ↑\n       上部DBRミラー\n       酸化アパーチャ\n       MQW活性層\n       下部DBRミラー\n          GaAs基板\n\nVCSELの特徴\n\n主にGaAs系\n\n850nmや1060nmなど\n\n直接変調\n\nマルチモードファイバー向け\n\n二次元アレイ化しやすい\n\nウェハー状態で光学試験できる\n\n短距離・多数並列に向く\n\nCoherentはAI scale-up向けに2次元VCSEL・PDアレイを開発し、Wide-and-Slow方式を提案しています。(Coherent Inc)\n\nWide-and-Slowとは何か\n\n一つのレーンを200G・400Gへ高速化する代わりに、50Gや100G程度のレーンを多数並べます。\n\n50G × 32レーン\n＝1.6T\n\nVCSELの長所\n\n外部CWレーザー不要\n\nSi変調器不要\n\nDSPレス化しやすい\n\n低遅延\n\nチャネルごとに独立\n\n予備レーンを用意しやすい\n\n故障を局所化しやすい\n\nウェハーレベル選別が可能\n\nVCSELの弱点\n\nレーザー数とファイバー数が増えやすい\n\nMMFのモード分散\n\n長距離化しにくい\n\nWDMへの適性がSiPhより低い\n\n配線容積とコネクター密度が増える\n\n多横モード、熱、電流密度の管理が必要\n\nしたがって、\n\n超短距離・多数並列\n→ VCSEL\n\nラック間・少ないファイバー・WDM\n→ CW InP＋SiPh\n\nという分化が有力です。\n\n### 図解｜VCSELの構造・強み・弱み\n\n![VCSELの構造・強み・弱み 01](/media/52e6dbb15ae68f0a458c7823ccca6c526d124e67c734edd23b619b58f3a4a729-content.webp)\n\n![VCSELの構造・強み・弱み 02](/media/78b100d3ce11f8e3c5d97b1fad778e58cf2218e478b5d24debe873b3d53f1f3e-content.webp)\n\n## 第9部　各方式の比較\n\n| 項目 | FRO Pluggable | LPO | CW InP＋SiPh CPO | VCSEL NPO/CPO | EML Pluggable |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| モジュールDSP | あり | 原則なし | 原則なし／構成次第 | 原則なし | FROではあり |\n| 光源 | 内蔵 | 内蔵 | 外部CW InP | VCSEL自身 | DFB部 |\n| 変調 | モジュール内 | 直接・SiPh等 | Si変調器 | 直接変調 | EAM |\n| ファイバー | SMF中心 | SMF中心 | SMF・WDM | MMF中心 | SMF |\n| 交換性 | 高い | 高い | 低～中 | 中 | 高い |\n| レーン速度 | 高い | 高いが難しい | 200G～400G向け | 低～中速多数 | 100G～400G候補 |\n| 得意距離 | 短～中距離 | 短距離中心 | 短～長距離 | 超短～短距離 | 数百m～数km |\n| 製造難度 | 中 | 中～高 | 非常に高い | 中～高 | 高い |\n| 消費電力 | 高い | 低い | 最低を狙える | 非常に低い | 中程度 |\n\n### 図解｜光源・配置方式の比較\n\n![光源・配置方式の比較 01](/media/d3bc7af18e35aa79c464c2144c7d08180e2bd510306ff999d4d27366cbf15b59-content.webp)\n\n![光源・配置方式の比較 02](/media/e4eb910b3fb8a9352d7db678ef6f99b0c3195bb8a9dfafbca33cc68a58c81b3a-content.webp)\n\n![光源・配置方式の比較 03](/media/9c538d090869df3f824edf94a4c4c50893513ca44583a4ab54ffc14cea319310-content.webp)\n\n## 第10部　CW InPレーザー＋SiPh方式のテストが難しい理由\n\nCW InP＋SiPhでは、単一チップを検査すれば終わるわけではありません。\n\nInPレーザーダイ\n＋\nSiPh PIC\n＋\nドライバーIC\n＋\nTIA\n＋\nフォトダイオード\n＋\nファイバー結合\n＋\n外部光源管理\n\nを、一つのシステムとして保証する必要があります。\n\n### 1．InPレーザー単体の検査\n\nCW InP DFBレーザーでは、\n\n閾値電流\n\n光出力\n\nスロープ効率\n\n発振波長\n\nSMSR\n\nRIN\n\n線幅\n\n温度依存性\n\n高出力ロールオーバー\n\n戻り光耐性\n\n寿命\n\nを測ります。\n\n### 図解｜InP CW DFBレーザー単体の測定\n\n![InP CW DFBレーザー単体の測定 01](/media/41a82aade3289390199ce3748c793e902b433c2342de6d9af5f61e37105f36f3-content.webp)\n\n### 2．SiPhウェハーの検査\n\nSiPh側では、\n\n導波路損失\n\nMZM／リング変調器のVπ\n\n消光比\n\n波長特性\n\nMUX／DEMUXの挿入損失\n\nフォトダイオード感度\n\nクロストーク\n\nグレーティング／エッジカプラー損失\n\nを評価します。\n\n### 図解｜SiPhウェハー試験\n\n![SiPhウェハー試験 01](/media/c0f24b1137057ba9e56ad61d16c40ec14c7ed1b0fe53364437af453373017cf3-content.webp)\n\n### 3．実装後に再び検査が必要\n\n個別に良品だったレーザーとPICでも、接合後に、\n\n光軸ずれ\n\nはんだ・接着応力\n\n温度変化\n\n結合損失\n\n偏波ずれ\n\n反射\n\nワイヤーやバンプの寄生\n\n熱干渉\n\nが発生します。\n\n### 図解｜実装後に現れる結合問題\n\n![実装後に現れる結合問題 01](/media/59a2044df2aff64deaa1a14a9c4daa0a6da636815b1dd07326ebb4eda3bdd759-content.webp)\n\n### 4．ファイバー接続が最終歩留まりを決める\n\nCPOでは数十本以上のファイバーを狭い領域へ接続します。\n\n住友電工もCPOでは、限られた空間にSiPhチップと多数のシングルモードファイバーを接続する必要があると説明しています。(Sumitomo Electric)\n\n数µm以下のずれが、多数チャネルで同時に発生しないよう管理しなければなりません。\n\n### 5．CPOでは歩留まりが掛け算になる\n\n概念的には、\n\n$${Y_{\\mathrm{system}}\\approx Y_{\\mathrm{ASIC}}\\times Y_{\\mathrm{PIC}}\\times Y_{\\mathrm{laser}}\\times Y_{\\mathrm{assembly}}\\times Y_{\\mathrm{fiber}}}$$\n\nです。\n\n各工程が95％でも、五工程を掛けると全体は約77％になります。\n\n高価なスイッチASICと多数の光エンジンを同じパッケージへ載せるほど、Known Good Dieと途中検査が重要になります。\n\n### 図解｜CW InP＋SiPhの多段階テスト\n\n![CW InP＋SiPhの多段階テスト 01](/media/6c943502e69aaf7ee3a06c6d161eb2b992373a192603d1de8b092e04d638398d-content.webp)\n\n### 図解｜CPO全体歩留まり\n\n![CPO全体歩留まり 01](/media/70f586cc1a251b246dea086a2961b6c8706324f61a184b5713d14866e8a74e54-content.webp)\n\n## 第11部　なぜ端面発光レーザーは劈開後まで完全にテストしにくいのか\n\nDFB、DML、EML、CW InPレーザーは端面発光型です。\n\n光はウェハー面と平行に進みます。\n\nウェハー状態\n\nDFB導波路 →→→→→ 半導体が続く\n\nこの状態では、正常なレーザー端面がありません。\n\nウェハーをバーへ劈開して、導波路を横切る端面を作る必要があります。\n\n劈開後\n\nDFB導波路 →→→→│ → 光\n                ↑\n              端面\n\n端面発光レーザーは、設計どおりの電気光学性能を得るために劈開・端面処理を必要とし、VCSELのような通常のウェハーレベル全数発振試験が難しいことが長年の課題です。(Google Patents)\n\n劈開前にも測れるもの\n\n端面形成前でも、\n\nHRXRD\n\nPLマッピング\n\n膜厚・組成\n\n表面粗さ\n\n格子周期\n\nリーク電流\n\n接触抵抗\n\n導通\n\nは測れます。\n\nしかし、これらは、\n\n材料や構造が設計に近いか\n\nを確認する測定であり、\n\n完成レーザーとして良品か\n\nを完全には保証しません。\n\n### 図解｜端面発光レーザーと劈開\n\n![端面発光レーザーと劈開 01](/media/14dbab392d0163ef0e9a88c57cb595673b875fea5cb8a97954d8dca3f3652715-content.webp)\n\n![端面発光レーザーと劈開 02](/media/2d416b8b3e1a025e82e087a230c18d70004bb9ec21bfb15d50fe919e6f9f082f-content.webp)\n\n## 第12部　劈開後の検査がコスト上深刻な理由\n\n端面発光レーザーの典型工程は次のようになります。\n\nInP基板\n ↓\nMOCVDエピ成長\n ↓\nMQW・SCH・クラッド\n ↓\nDFB格子形成\n ↓\n再成長\n ↓\nBH／リッジ形成\n ↓\n絶縁膜・電極\n ↓\n裏面研磨・裏面電極\n ↓\nバー劈開\n ↓\nようやく本格的L-I-V・スペクトル試験\n ↓\nAR／HR端面コーティング\n ↓\n再試験\n ↓\nダイ分離\n ↓\n実装\n ↓\nバーンイン\n\n最大の問題は、不良発見が遅いこと\n\nエピや格子に潜在不良があっても、本格的なレーザー試験までに、\n\n高価なInP基板\n\n長時間のMOCVD\n\n微細格子加工\n\n再成長\n\nリソグラフィー\n\n電極形成\n\nウェハー薄化\n\n劈開\n\nという付加価値を載せています。\n\n最後に不良と分かれば、それまでの加工費がすべて失われます。\n\n端面形成そのものが新しい不良要因になる\n\n劈開によって、\n\nチッピング\n\nクラック\n\n段差\n\n傾き\n\n汚染\n\n表面酸化\n\n共振器長のずれ\n\nが発生します。\n\nさらに端面にはAR／HR膜を形成します。端面コーティングは、個別ダイへ分ける前のレーザーバーを治具に並べて成膜するのが一般的です。(Comptek Solutions)\n\n高出力CWでは端面信頼性が厳しい\n\n端面に光吸収や微小欠陥があると、\n\n端面で光吸収\n   ↓\n局所発熱\n   ↓\n吸収増加\n   ↓\nさらなる発熱\n   ↓\n端面劣化・光学破壊\n\nという正帰還が起こり得ます。\n\nそのため高出力CWレーザーでは、単に発振すれば良いのではなく、長時間バーンイン、温度サイクル、高出力動作、戻り光条件を含めた信頼性確認が必要です。\n\n### 図解｜劈開後試験・端面膜・バーンイン\n\n![劈開後試験・端面膜・バーンイン 01](/media/9acc69e8f38bfd2227233466906f51f9eb981fb332b202a9a2c07b0e348f8400-content.webp)\n\n![劈開後試験・端面膜・バーンイン 02](/media/e2c375bc9c00038b8007e28130102384d5d208896e525b18ff295e9ed2860ca6-content.webp)\n\n![劈開後試験・端面膜・バーンイン 03](/media/110c8e0f6ddaa67c0eac10cd9e8cf93184e23c3367b31486b16e8f6ec9aaf481-content.webp)\n\n## 第13部　世界の光トランシーバー市場\n\nLightCountingによると、2025年の光トランシーバーおよび関連製品売上は約238億ドルで、前年比55％増でした。\n\n内訳の公表値から計算すると、\n\n| 分野 | 2025年売上 | 全体に占める比率 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Ethernet光トランシーバー | 約180億ドル | 約75.6％ |\n| AOC | 11億ドル超 | 約4.6％ |\n| DWDM・FTTx・無線フロントホール等 | 約47億ドル | 約19.8％ |\n| **合計** | **238億ドル** | **100％** |\n\nとなります。(LightCounting)\n\nデータセンター向けPluggable市場だけでは、2025年に155億ドル、2030年に340億ドル超が予測されています。CPOは2030年に90億ドル超の市場になる予測です。(ST News)\n\n### 図解｜市場規模とデータセンター需要\n\n![市場規模とデータセンター需要 01](/media/bace863bfbe4d78096e44318966cfbf674a4bd05742a0a2c2dfef140d8388f08-content.webp)\n\n![市場規模とデータセンター需要 02](/media/b11465cfb1bf9a6964a5781615ba7245c05f2cf933cb409ac012cb998c71a0d0-content.webp)\n\n## 第14部　トランシーバー企業のシェア\n\n公開情報で確認できる順位\n\nLightCountingの2025年ランキングでは、\n\nInnolight\n\nEoptolink\n\nCoherent\n\nAccelink\n\nという並びです。\n\nEoptolinkは2025年にCoherentを抜いて世界2位となり、5～8位は比較的近いシェアで競争しているとされています。(LightCounting)\n\nInnolight自身の上場資料では、対象市場の定義によって約28％、Reuters／Counterpointの光インターコネクト市場推定では約25％とされています。(Reuters)\n\n注意すべき点\n\n公開されている順位は、\n\nEthernet\n\nDWDM\n\nFTTx\n\n無線フロントホール\n\nを含む光トランシーバー全体です。\n\n1.6Tだけの世界企業別シェアは、信頼できる公開統計がありません。\n\nしたがって、\n\nInnolight 60％\nEoptolink 15％\nCoherent 15％\n\nといった図は、特定顧客、特定四半期、特定仕様の推定である可能性があり、世界市場全体の確定値として使うべきではありません。\n\nただし、\n\nInnolightが1.6T初期量産で最大級\n\nEoptolinkが急速に追随\n\n中国2社が高速Pluggableで非常に強い\n\nCoherent、Lumentum、AAOIが非中国側の代替候補\n\nという方向性は妥当です。\n\n### 図解｜企業順位・デバイス企業・構成変化\n\n![企業順位・デバイス企業・構成変化 01](/media/411fde4efce172e4a917c2e0a5042315b026b793b20d9586e40a983fe96dfea5-content.webp)\n\n![企業順位・デバイス企業・構成変化 02](/media/4e2ce05fd2f6c4d662d15d6099392f1adf6766385140a4c9c2bfe1ad131d16f0-content.webp)\n\n![企業順位・デバイス企業・構成変化 03](/media/f98451be84850e1d36cd5f7605a674bfa39974c8df1018d23d876b75ef1edf02-content.webp)\n\n![企業順位・デバイス企業・構成変化 04](/media/b2349d408bb0656c46507271f701dc0f354017b5df2ade7ae7c855f488b5a2dd-content.webp)\n\n## 第15部　分野別の公開シェア\n\nInP基板\n\nReutersによると、\n\nAXT＋住友電工：約80％\n\nJX金属：約10％\n\nその他：約10％\n\nです。(Reuters)\n\nこれは光サプライチェーンで最も集中度の高い分野の一つです。\n\nSiPh搭載比率\n\n2025年：約43％\n\n2030年予測：約76％\n\nです。(ST News)\n\n光伝送システム\n\n2025年の光伝送装置市場は約160億ドルで、上位企業は、\n\nHuawei\n\nCiena\n\nNokia\n\nZTE\n\nCisco\n\nでした。(Dell'Oro Group)\n\n2024年の公開シェアでは、\n\nHuawei：33％\n\nCiena：19％\n\nNokia＋Infineraの仮想合算：約19％\n\nでした。(Dell'Oro Group)\n\nCWレーザー・EML・VCSEL\n\n企業別の正確な世界シェアは、公開情報が不足しています。\n\nただし量産規模と製品範囲から、\n\nCW InP：Coherent、Lumentum、住友電工が世界大手\n\n200G EML：Lumentum、Coherent、三菱電機、住友電工\n\n高速VCSEL：Coherent、Lumentum、Broadcom\n\nCPO外部光源：Coherent、Lumentum、住友電工、Sivers\n\nが主要企業と考えられます。\n\n住友電工は、自社予測としてデータセンター用光チップの数量構成が、2024年のEML 76％・CW-LD 24％から、2028年にはEML 31％・CW-LD 69％へ変化すると見ています。これは世界市場の確定シェアではなく、同社の市場見通しです。(Sumitomo Electric)\n\n### 図解｜基板・SiPh・装置・デバイスの公開シェア\n\n![基板・SiPh・装置・デバイスの公開シェア 01](/media/84ce3c4d1633f8d0433a1cbeefa072f3709a0a9820189a2617fc18b8c9f6d4f6-content.webp)\n\n![基板・SiPh・装置・デバイスの公開シェア 02](/media/7d0d4a9306b6a3bcb672a9a84db9a53ec62567d1cc240c04c8ad74ba06c730f3-content.webp)\n\n![基板・SiPh・装置・デバイスの公開シェア 03](/media/a83f4ad61416c1f84c39b46b731f29dc2ccc1f510e2a7ac269ef30c1378e5bc1-content.webp)\n\n![基板・SiPh・装置・デバイスの公開シェア 04](/media/1e5936e9275d7c79b420c4b6c38e657c446677d3dd49cb12f65ee4f086b994c6-content.webp)\n\n![基板・SiPh・装置・デバイスの公開シェア 05](/media/8843386bcbe3e390655d5421b534d07af6beabb289bb40b809651d100c0893af-content.webp)\n\n![基板・SiPh・装置・デバイスの公開シェア 06](/media/6057275bc54a42e75f2c65f8eb400a9f7e64aac24267eb842af5458bc4906faa-content.webp)\n\n## 第16部　米国による中国製トランシーバー規制の可能性\n\n2026年8月4日時点で、FCCは中国企業の新しい光トランシーバーモデルの輸入を禁止する案を準備しているとReutersが報じています。\n\nただし、\n\n正式決定ではない\n\n内容は変更され得る\n\n撤回される可能性もある\n\n既存モデルと新モデルの扱いが完全には確定していない\n\n中国資本基準か製造国基準かも不明\n\nです。(Reuters)\n\n規制が成立した場合\n\n短期\n\n既存中国製モデルの駆け込み調達\n\n新型1.6T・3.2Tの認証停止\n\n納期長期化\n\nASP上昇\n\n米ハイパースケーラーの建設遅延\n\n中期\n\nCoherent\n\nLumentum\n\nAAOI\n\nFabrinet\n\n日本のレーザー企業\n\n台湾・東南アジアの組立企業\n\nへ注文が移る可能性があります。\n\n長期\n\n米国・日本・台湾でのInP、SiPh、モジュール能力増強\n\n中国企業の非中国工場への移転\n\nEMLからCW＋SiPhへの移行加速\n\nCPO、NPO、LPOの非中国供給網形成\n\nが考えられます。\n\n米国が自分の首を絞める可能性\n\nあります。\n\n中国企業は光トランシーバー完成品の量産で圧倒的な規模を持ち、CoherentやLumentumが技術的に代替できても、短期間に全数量を置き換えるのは困難です。\n\nReutersも、CoherentとLumentumには競争力のある技術がある一方、中国企業をすぐに代替する生産規模が不足していると報じています。(Reuters)\n\nしたがって規制の効果は、\n\n中国排除による安全保障強化\n\nと、\n\n米国AIインフラのコスト・納期悪化\n\nのトレードオフです。\n\n### 図解｜規制案と短期影響\n\n![規制案と短期影響 01](/media/53f756963ac27d456f885700cbbf1ffa3dcce360d3f72aac38596764a11ea8b9-content.webp)\n\n![規制案と短期影響 02](/media/9a9c142d79d378b125042907d73989f4809cfed9fdcbae7fbe6e19b8560ac2df-content.webp)\n\n![規制案と短期影響 03](/media/9bd45450ad664bb8c9879ef352abab9570b21963f29fd4b5bbd571b5991ebe1d-content.webp)\n\n![規制案と短期影響 04](/media/97de71ed699194279629aaaa42376bce50abccd2b12ec8ba099a82a1c124fa1f-content.webp)\n\n## 第17部　世界の光銘柄を役割と規模で整理する\n\n規模区分は以下とします。\n\n| 区分 | 意味                       |\n| --- | --- |\n| S  | 世界首位級、業界標準や供給能力を左右する     |\n| A  | 世界的な主要企業、特定分野の首位級        |\n| B  | 中堅・成長企業、特定技術や顧客に強い       |\n| C  | 初期量産・小型企業、成功余地と失敗リスクが大きい |\n\n### 1．InP基板・エピ・MOCVD\n\n| 地域    | 企業       |   コード | 役割           | 規模  | 投資上の特徴              |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 米国／中国 | AXT      |  AXTI | InP基板        | A   | 最上流だが中国輸出許可リスク      |\n| 日本    | 住友電工     |  5802 | InP基板、CW、EML | S   | 上流からデバイスまで垂直統合      |\n| 日本    | JX金属     |  5016 | InP基板        | A   | 約10％シェア、最大1,200億円投資 |\n| 台湾    | LandMark |  3081 | InP・GaAsエピ   | A～B | レーザー量産増の外部エピ受益      |\n| 台湾    | VPEC     |  2455 | III-Vエピ      | B   | 顧客認証と稼働率の変動大        |\n| 英国    | IQE      | IQE.L | GaAs・InPエピ   | B   | 高純度だが財務リスクあり        |\n| ドイツ   | AIXTRON  |  AIXA | MOCVD装置      | A   | 能力増強局面で大きなレバレッジ     |\n\nAXTと住友電工で世界InP基板の約80％、JX金属が約10％を占めます。JX金属は2026年、今後4年間で最大1,200億円のInP能力増強方針を公表しました。AIXTRONはLumentumからInP向けG10-AsP装置を複数受注しています。(Reuters)\n\n### 2．CW InP・DFB・EML・VCSEL\n\n| 地域 | 企業           |    コード | 主力                    | 規模  | 評価                 |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 米国 | Coherent     |   COHR | CW、EML、VCSEL、SiPh、TRx | S   | 最も技術範囲が広い          |\n| 米国 | Lumentum     |   LITE | CW、UHP、EML、ELSFP      | S   | InP高出力レーザーの本命      |\n| 日本 | 住友電工         |   5802 | CW、EML、InP基板          | S   | 上流と光源の双方を保有        |\n| 日本 | 三菱電機         |   6503 | 200G EML、PIN-PD       | A   | 200G EMLへの直接性が高い   |\n| 日本 | 古河電工         |   5801 | CW-DFB、EML、ITLA       | A   | 光源・コネクター・ファイバー     |\n| 欧州 | Sivers       |   SIVE | CW DFBアレイ、ELS         | C～B | 小型でCPO採用への感応度大     |\n| 韓国 | OE Solutions | 138080 | ELSFP、通信TRx           | B   | 23dBm UHP ELSFPを開発 |\n\nCoherentは1.6TでSiPh＋CW、EML、VCSELの三方式を並行展開しています。LumentumはCW、1W級UHP、EML、ELSFPまでを持ちます。三菱電機は800G・1.6T向け200G EMLを量産しています。古河電工はSiPh用CW-DFBとCPO用小型多芯コネクターを展開しています。(Coherent Inc)\n\nSiversはDFBレーザーアレイを外部光源へ供給し、GlobalFoundriesのSiPh・CPO基盤との協業を進めています。OE Solutionsは23dBm級ELSFPのサンプル出荷を計画しています。(Sivers Semiconductors)\n\n### 3．SiPh・CPO・DSP\n\n| 地域  | 企業              |      コード | 役割                  | 規模  | 光事業純度 |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 米国  | Broadcom        |     AVGO | スイッチASIC、SerDes、CPO | S   | 中～低   |\n| 米国  | Marvell         |     MRVL | DSP、TIA、ドライバー、LPO   | S   | 中     |\n| 台湾  | TSMC            |     2330 | COUPE、CoWoS、CPO     | S   | 低     |\n| 台湾  | ASE             | 3711／ASX | CPOパッケージ            | S   | 低     |\n| 欧州  | STMicro         |      STM | 300mm SiPh PIC100   | S   | 低～中   |\n| 米国  | GlobalFoundries |      GFS | SiPhファウンドリー、CPO     | A～S | 低     |\n| カナダ | POET            |     POET | 光インターポーザ、光エンジン      | C～B | 高     |\n\nTSMCはCOUPEを2026年からCPOへ統合し、ASEもASIC近傍に光エンジンを配置するCPOを実証しています。STはPIC100を300mmで量産し、200G per laneの1.6T SiPhを対象としています。(pr.tsmc.com)\n\nPOETはレーザー、変調器、受光器、電子ICを光インターポーザ上で統合する1.6T光エンジンを展開しています。ただし大規模反復売上と量産歩留まりは、なお検証段階です。(POET Technologies)\n\n### 4．完成トランシーバー・光エンジン\n\n| 地域    | 企業               |    コード | 役割              | 規模  | 特徴          |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 中国    | Innolight        | 300308 | 800G・1.6T TRx   | S   | 世界首位        |\n| 中国    | Eoptolink        | 300502 | 800G・1.6T、LPO   | S   | 2025年世界2位   |\n| 中国    | Accelink         | 002281 | TRx・光部品         | A   | 世界4位        |\n| 中国    | TFC              | 300394 | 光エンジン、FAU、CPO部品 | A   | 1.6T光エンジン量産 |\n| 米国    | Coherent         |   COHR | TRxと部品          | S～A | 垂直統合        |\n| 米国    | Lumentum         |   LITE | Cloud Light系TRx | A   | 光源との統合      |\n| 米国    | AAOI             |   AAOI | 800G・1.6T TRx   | B～A | 再量産局面       |\n| 台湾・米国 | Source Photonics |  非純粋上場 | TRx             | A   | 中国資本判定に注意   |\n\nTFCは1.6T光エンジンの量産と、CPO向け光部品の開発を進めています。(TFCSZ)\n\nAAOIは2026年に1.6Tの初回量産注文と800G注文を獲得し、米国・台湾で能力増強を進めています。ただし、過去の100Gから400Gへの世代移行失敗を考慮すると、認証、歩留まり、反復注文の確認が必要です。(AOI Newsroom)\n\n### 5．光実装・EMS・ファイバー\n\n| 地域    | 企業       |    コード | 役割            | 規模  | 特徴         |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 米国／タイ | Fabrinet |     FN | 光実装、組立、試験     | S   | 高難度光EMS    |\n| 米国    | Corning  |    GLW | ファイバー、ケーブル、接続 | S   | AI DC配線の中心 |\n| 日本    | Fujikura |   5803 | 高密度ファイバー、融着   | A～S | 配線密度増の受益   |\n| 日本    | 古河電工     |   5801 | ファイバー、コネクター   | A   | レーザーも保有    |\n| 日本    | 住友電工     |   5802 | ファイバー、コネクター   | S   | 光全層へ露出     |\n| 中国    | TFC      | 300394 | FAU・光実装       | A   | CPO結合部品    |\n| 台湾    | ASE      |    ASX | 高度パッケージ       | S   | ASIC＋光統合   |\n\nFabrinetは光通信部品、モジュール、サブシステムについて、高精度光パッケージ、実装、統合、試験を担います。2026年度第3四半期売上は12.14億ドルまで拡大しています。(Fabrinet)\n\nCPOでは完成Pluggableの個数が減っても、ASIC、PIC、レーザー、ファイバー、冷却を一体化する工程が難しくなるため、Fabrinetのような高度光EMSの付加価値は残り得ます。\n\n### 図解｜光接続の役割別プレイヤー\n\n![光接続の役割別プレイヤー 01](/media/b55521ed5c5b5c8e3bd44c8423c1dc008ef88db239e8041ccf18c4b772628dd0-content.webp)\n\n![光接続の役割別プレイヤー 02](/media/f4280ad196bf4734a4d2036267d7389b193539ac22b88cfb6bade1efb7d068d0-content.webp)\n\n![光接続の役割別プレイヤー 03](/media/d8967112322e1461adc565b5a7fa9479355fc8a4a90f72a0f834529680342d67-content.webp)\n\n![光接続の役割別プレイヤー 04](/media/3e4c3f924a766ae79634414c3f916089ae6a6cc5bdf118ef352f96b82164606a-content.webp)\n\n![光接続の役割別プレイヤー 05](/media/39854a65c858d5dbe690d568822d9abea9e156d1505c8662f0e125fb6a8a83ec-content.webp)\n\n![光接続の役割別プレイヤー 06](/media/bfe3732c8405651c074289cd8644458420a455f0a217d086a6c911dfc2a15479-content.webp)\n\n![光接続の役割別プレイヤー 07](/media/ed3ef1addec1877b859feefb00aa4158c617be156b15a748325c59256c766090-content.webp)\n\n![光接続の役割別プレイヤー 08](/media/8d158c60d7bc61bf1c234ebe42ce0dec0f159547d8a1c57ed78ce6735757be3d-content.webp)\n\n![光接続の役割別プレイヤー 09](/media/8fa832d6e3fa5c835b76a6b933fa09ef6c4889ca8c65ae299abd0a476229ec01-content.webp)\n\n## 第18部　投資テーマ別の見方\n\n最も安定した大型プラットフォーム\n\nBroadcom\n\nMarvell\n\nTSMC\n\nASE\n\nCorning\n\n住友電工\n\n光需要が一方式に偏らなくても参加できますが、光事業だけの純度は低めです。\n\n光デバイスの中核\n\nCoherent\n\nLumentum\n\n住友電工\n\nCW、EML、VCSELの方式選択が完全に確定していない局面では、複数方式を持つ企業が有利です。\n\n上流ボトルネック\n\nAXT\n\n住友電工\n\nJX金属\n\nIQE\n\nLandMark\n\nAIXTRON\n\n完成トランシーバー企業の勝敗を超えて恩恵を受けますが、輸出規制、顧客認証、設備投資周期の影響を受けます。\n\n完成品の規制受益候補\n\nCoherent\n\nLumentum\n\nAAOI\n\nFabrinet\n\n中国製新モデルの禁止が実施されれば受注機会が増えます。ただし急激な増産では、歩留まり、部品調達、顧客認証、設備償却が先行するため、ASP上昇がすぐ利益率上昇へつながるとは限りません。\n\n小型・高変動銘柄\n\nPOET\n\nSivers\n\nIQE\n\nAXTI\n\nOE Solutions\n\n顧客採用一件の影響が大きい反面、量産遅延、増資、希薄化、歩留まり失敗のリスクも大きくなります。\n\n### 図解｜投資テーマと小型高変動銘柄\n\n![投資テーマと小型高変動銘柄 01](/media/27f629fd57b9eec4f2c685e8fa283beb39c81d6e99d77f6d3c36816127123604-content.webp)\n\n![投資テーマと小型高変動銘柄 02](/media/28c176e285f9c86052174f7c7f4dc2eb29900d8b8e9944a495608704c680a05b-content.webp)\n\n## 第19部　InP供給網のさらに上流――インジウムとリン\n\nこれまで見てきたInP基板は、鉱山からそのまま採掘される材料ではありません。\n\nInP基板が完成するまでには、概略として次の工程が必要です。\n\n亜鉛鉱石・製錬残渣\n        ↓\n副産物としてインジウムを回収\n        ↓\n高純度インジウム\n        ＋\n高純度赤リン\n        ↓\nInP多結晶を合成\n        ↓\nInP単結晶を育成\n        ↓\n切断・研削・研磨\n        ↓\nInP基板\n        ↓\nエピ成長\n        ↓\nCWレーザー・EML・受光器\n\nAXTの開示資料によると、InP多結晶1kgの製造には、実績値として約0.83～0.87kgの高純度インジウムと、約0.29～0.30kgの赤リンが使われています。\n\nつまりInP供給を考える際には、\n\nインジウム金属\n   ↓\nInP多結晶\n   ↓\nInP基板\n   ↓\nレーザー・受光器\n\nという各段階を分けなければなりません。\n\n中国政府は、完成したInP基板だけでなく、その上流にあるインジウム化合物や製造技術を規制することで、光部品供給網を複数の地点から制御できます。\n\n### 図解｜インジウム・リンとInP供給網\n\n![インジウム・リンとInP供給網 01](/media/ec03b3d9a3ce11645591fcbe31de27e36e46b002e0c25676adf0b22b505ff915-content.webp)\n\n![インジウム・リンとInP供給網 02](/media/3328411e7fc014a7840c9bff36de0e30ad902582e4e7afd6a140e2ce33a52144-content.webp)\n\n![インジウム・リンとInP供給網 03](/media/235ffbeaa389740bcde8879e947cc0af9162910703732f1a9e18f0d18d710c92-content.webp)\n\n## 第20部　2025年10月のレアアース規制停止とInP規制は別である\n\n2025年10月、中国はレアアース、関連技術、超硬材料、電池材料などを対象とする追加の輸出管理措置を発表しました。\n\nその後の米中合意により、これらの一部は2025年11月から2026年11月10日まで、約1年間停止されました。\n\nしかし、ここで最も重要なのは、\n\nこの停止措置によって、InPに対する輸出管理まで解除されたわけではない\n\nということです。\n\nInP関連の規制は、2025年10月のレアアース規制より前の、2025年2月4日に導入されています。\n\n対象には、\n\nリン化インジウム\n\nトリメチルインジウム\n\nトリエチルインジウム\n\n関連する製造技術\n\nなどが含まれます。\n\n2025年11月の停止は、主に2025年10月に追加された措置を対象としており、2月に導入されたInP輸出許可制度は別に存続しています。中国政府も輸出管理について、全面的な輸出禁止ではなく、条件を満たした申請に許可を与える制度だと説明しています。\n\nしたがって、2026年11月10日に注目すべきなのは、\n\nInP規制が解除されるか\n\nではなく、\n\n2025年10月分の停止措置が延長されるか\n        ＋\nInP・インジウムに別の追加措置が導入されるか\n\nです。\n\n最も可能性が高い展開\n\n2026年11月以降も、追加規制の全面復活を避けるための交渉が行われる可能性があります。\n\nしかし、停止期間が延長されたとしても、\n\nInP輸出許可\n\nガリウム関連許可\n\n最終需要者審査\n\n軍民両用企業への個別審査\n\n中国税関による書類確認\n\nまで元に戻るとは限りません。\n\n今後は、\n\n表面的には米中合意が延長される一方、個別材料については許可制度が残り続ける\n\nという二層構造が最も現実的です。\n\n### 図解｜規制停止と現実的シナリオ\n\n![規制停止と現実的シナリオ 01](/media/40a761281fc607fbc8d181ab02df071aa3f0850b95687e34ede0c8a22096e105-content.webp)\n\n![規制停止と現実的シナリオ 02](/media/f53178838753c7df19fc9affbbff00463f50379c1602b99129361793fb2a8322-content.webp)\n\n## 第21部　インジウム金属そのものが規制される可能性\n\n2026年8月時点で、インジウム金属そのものは、中国の正式な輸出管理対象には全面的には含まれていません。\n\n一方で、中国税関は欧米向けのインジウム輸出について、最終需要者、使用目的、再輸出先などの確認を強めています。\n\n中国は世界のインジウム生産のおよそ70％を占めています。インジウムは主に亜鉛製錬の副産物であり、需要が増えたからといって、インジウムだけを目的として短期間に鉱山生産を増やすことは容易ではありません。\n\nなぜインジウム規制は強力なのか\n\n中国製InP基板だけを止めた場合、日本の住友電工やJX金属、Coherentの非中国設備が代替供給を増やせます。\n\nしかし、インジウム金属そのものを止めれば、\n\n中国製InP基板\nだけでなく\n日本製InP基板\n米国製InP基板\n欧州製InP基板\n\nの原料調達にも影響を与えられます。\n\nつまりインジウム規制は、中国国内の一企業を止める措置ではなく、中国国外のInP産業全体に作用する規制になります。\n\n中国にとって合理的な規制方法\n\n中国が直ちに世界向け全面禁輸へ進むとは限りません。\n\nより合理的なのは、次のような段階的管理です。\n\n第1段階\n輸出書類と最終需要者確認を強化\n        ↓\n第2段階\n高純度品だけを許可制にする\n        ↓\n第3段階\n米国のAI・防衛・通信企業向けを厳格審査\n        ↓\n第4段階\nインジウム金属の輸出量を抑える\n        ↓\n第5段階\n中国国内でInPへ加工した製品だけを個別許可\n\n中国にとっては、原料を安価な金属のまま輸出するより、\n\n中国国内でInP多結晶、単結晶、基板へ加工し、付加価値を国内に残す\n\n方が産業政策上も有利です。\n\nこのため、インジウム金属の輸出を抑えながら、InP基板の輸出許可を個別に管理する政策は十分に考えられます。\n\n可能性の評価\n\n今後12～18か月についての筆者推定は、次の通りです。\n\n| シナリオ | 推定可能性 |\n| --- | --- |\n| インジウム輸出時の最終需要者審査が続く | 高い |\n| 高純度インジウムの正式な許可制 | 中程度 |\n| 米国の特定企業向け実質停止 | 中～低 |\n| 世界向けのインジウム全面禁止 | 低い |\n| InP・関連化合物の許可制継続 | 非常に高い |\n\n恒久的な全面禁輸より、申請は可能だが、許可時期と数量を中国政府が決める状態の方が、交渉カードとして長く利用できます。\n\n### 図解｜インジウム規制のケース\n\n![インジウム規制のケース 01](/media/60064b9152d6bc12290a27066209f9b635b24f575af73245768f9352ecc9dfbc-content.webp)\n\n![インジウム規制のケース 02](/media/1da9b370137eb539efab67d1328881573f34e53801f0c15cad7ddd5874996604-content.webp)\n\n![インジウム規制のケース 03](/media/32d449c20675a0277fe80541ae90e09a259450b5e76653f119a4b1e6ce8c2be8-content.webp)\n\n## 第22部　リン原料まで規制される可能性\n\nInPは、インジウムとリンをほぼ1対1の原子比で結合した化合物です。\n\nしたがって、インジウムだけでなくリンが止まってもInPは製造できません。\n\nただし、リンについては三つの市場を分ける必要があります。\n\nリン鉱石\n   ↓\n肥料・リン酸\n   ↓\n一般工業用元素リン\n   ↓\n高純度赤リン・半導体用リン\n\nリン鉱石全体の規制\n\nリン鉱石やリン酸肥料は、農業と食料供給に直結する巨大市場です。\n\n中国がInP供給を止めるためだけに、リン鉱石や肥料用リン全体を全面禁輸するのは、世界の農産物価格を押し上げ、外交的反発を広げるため、効率的な政策ではありません。\n\nInPに使われるリンの量は、肥料市場全体から見れば小さいためです。\n\n高純度リンだけを規制する可能性\n\n一方で、\n\n高純度赤リン\n\nInP多結晶用リン\n\n半導体グレードのリン材料\n\n特定純度以上の元素リン\n\n精製・合成技術\n\nだけを狙うことは可能です。\n\nInP製造で必要なのは、単に元素としてリンを含んでいればよい原料ではありません。\n\n微量の、\n\n酸素\n\n炭素\n\n硫黄\n\n金属不純物\n\n水分\n\nが結晶欠陥、キャリア濃度、電気抵抗、レーザー寿命へ影響します。\n\nそのため一般工業用リンを購入し、すぐに半導体用InPへ転用することはできません。\n\nリン規制の可能性がインジウムより低い理由\n\n中国は既に、\n\nInP化合物\n\nInP基板\n\n有機インジウム前駆体\n\n関連製造技術\n\nを管理できます。\n\nそのためInP供給を制御する目的で、影響範囲の広いリンまで規制する必要性は高くありません。\n\n規制の可能性は、\n\nInP基板・化合物\n      ＞\n高純度インジウム\n      ＞\n高純度半導体用リン\n      ＞\nリン鉱石全体\n\nの順になると考えられます。\n\nただし、台湾有事や米中対立の急激な悪化など、経済合理性より安全保障が優先される局面では、高純度リンが追加の管理対象に入る可能性を無視できません。\n\n### 図解｜リン原料と規制優先順位\n\n![リン原料と規制優先順位 01](/media/6097261c35b0c5141aafcb87c48e75a2db1aa0c1429d8072f821146e0f2f0933-content.webp)\n\n![リン原料と規制優先順位 02](/media/a75dd1bccbaa5cad5ceabfb2d1bfe1c0f499ee124caca3c808ef1203bd734b1f-content.webp)\n\n![リン原料と規制優先順位 03](/media/5c5921b848a5e30de6e728fb44d4ae9854b6b8d07e524569237229d8e5d28a44-content.webp)\n\n## 第23部　AXTの本質的なリスク\n\nAXTはNASDAQ上場の米国企業ですが、製造供給網の実態は中国に大きく依存しています。\n\n同社は、2004年以降、製品を中国で製造しており、InP、GaAs、Geを含むすべてのウェハー基板を中国で生産しています。\n\nさらに中国国内で、\n\n高純度金属\n\nInP基礎材料\n\npBNるつぼ\n\n精製ガリウム\n\nヒ素材料\n\nなどを扱う子会社・関連会社へ投資し、中国国内に垂直統合された原料供給網を構築しています。\n\nこれは平時には、\n\n原料を確保しやすい\n\n製造コストが低い\n\n納期を短縮できる\n\n品質を自社で管理できる\n\nという大きな競争優位です。\n\nしかし輸出管理下では、\n\n原料から基板まで中国国内にあるため、製品を完成させても海外へ出せない\n\nという逆方向のリスクになります。\n\nすでに業績へ影響している\n\n2025年2月にInP基板が輸出管理対象となった後、AXTの中国子会社は輸出許可の申請を開始しました。\n\n2025年6月、欧州と日本の一部顧客向けに最初の輸出許可を取得しましたが、会社は許可申請がいつ審査・承認されるか予測できないとしています。\n\nAXTは2026年の開示でも、\n\nInP輸出許可が現在直面する最も重要な課題である\n\nと説明しています。\n\n北米向け売上比率も、2024年の約8％から2025年には約2％へ低下しました。すべてを輸出規制だけで説明することはできませんが、会社自身が米国向けInP売上は中国の輸出管理と米国の関税による影響を受けたとしています。\n\nAXTが抱える三重の集中リスク\n\n### 1．製造地域の集中\n\nInP基板の製造が中国に集中しています。\n\n### 2．政策決定の集中\n\n海外出荷には中国商務部の許可が必要です。\n\n### 3．顧客認証の集中\n\nInP基板は、同じ直径・導電型であれば簡単に他社品へ交換できる材料ではありません。\n\n基板メーカーを変えると、\n\n基板評価\n   ↓\nエピ条件の再調整\n   ↓\nレーザー試作\n   ↓\n性能・波長評価\n   ↓\n寿命試験\n   ↓\n顧客認証\n\nが必要になります。\n\nこのためAXTの供給が不安定でも、顧客はすぐに完全離脱できません。\n\nこれはAXTに一定の顧客維持力を与える一方、顧客が住友電工やJX金属との長期契約を結ぶ動機にもなります。\n\nAXTはインジウム規制で受益するのか\n\nインジウム金属の輸出だけが規制され、中国国内では自由に利用できる場合、AXTは相対的に有利になる可能性があります。\n\n中国国内のインジウム\n        ↓\nAXT中国子会社\n        ↓\nInP基板へ加工\n\nまで進められるためです。\n\nしかし、その完成基板を海外へ出すには、引き続き輸出許可が必要です。\n\nしたがって、\n\n中国国内原料へのアクセス\n        ＝ 強み\n\n中国国外へ販売する権利\n        ＝ 政策リスク\n\nが同時に存在します。\n\nAXTは単純なInP需要拡大銘柄ではなく、\n\nAI光通信需要の成長と、中国政府の輸出許可の両方に賭ける銘柄\n\nとして評価する必要があります。\n\n### 図解｜AXTの三重集中リスク\n\n![AXTの三重集中リスク 01](/media/5ba0139aae2554225263bfdcf62234c7102a73c6d3ed6cf312f3b3658134a3f5-content.webp)\n\n## 第24部　2010年のレアアース問題と同じ経過をたどるのか\n\n今回のInP・インジウム問題は、2010年の日中レアアース問題と似た経過をたどる可能性があります。\n\n共通する初期段階\n\n輸出管理・通関遅延\n        ↓\n海外出荷が急減\n        ↓\n中国国外価格が上昇\n        ↓\n企業が在庫を積み増す\n        ↓\n政府が備蓄を開始\n        ↓\n非中国供給源へ投資\n\n中国が2023年以降に実施したガリウム、ゲルマニウムなどの輸出管理でも、導入直後に輸出が急減し、許可取得後に一部が回復する経過が見られました。\n\nInPでも、規制導入後に許可申請が滞留し、その後、一部顧客向けに許可が出るという同様の動きが起きています。\n\n2010年と異なる点\n\nただし、最終的な結果は2010年と同じにはならない可能性があります。\n\n2010年代のレアアース問題では、輸出数量制限や輸出税が中心でした。\n\n現在の制度は、\n\n国家安全保障\n\n軍民両用\n\n最終需要者\n\n再輸出先\n\n製造技術\n\n特定企業\n\nを基準に審査できる輸出管理制度です。\n\n全面的な数量制限を撤廃しても、個別企業に対する許可審査は残せます。\n\nしたがって今後は、\n\n規制が解除されて元通りになるのではなく、許可制度を残したまま輸出量が調節される\n\n可能性が高いと考えられます。\n\n前半は同じ、後半は供給網分断へ\n\n最もあり得る経過は次の通りです。\n\n規制導入\n   ↓\n価格急騰・納期長期化\n   ↓\n部分的な許可再開\n   ↓\n米中交渉で一時緩和\n   ↓\n許可制度そのものは残る\n   ↓\n日本・米国で代替能力を増強\n   ↓\n中国と非中国で供給網が分離\n\n2010年の経験でも、日本は備蓄、使用量削減、リサイクル、中国外生産への投資を進めました。\n\nInPでも同じく、\n\n住友電工\n\nJX金属\n\nCoherent\n\nLumentum\n\n欧米のインジウム回収企業\n\n亜鉛製錬所の副産物回収設備\n\nへの投資が増えると考えられます。\n\nただしInP基板は顧客認証が長く、単結晶成長と研磨の歩留まりも重要です。\n\nそのためレアアース鉱山の代替よりも、認証済みInP基板能力の代替には時間がかかる可能性があります。\n\n### 図解｜2010年との共通点と相違点\n\n![2010年との共通点と相違点 01](/media/fd29904a506c8134fcc3f82edfef16cac4f52fa72a57197bafb620e5e98a8c06-content.webp)\n\n![2010年との共通点と相違点 02](/media/6a73ff61f9481cc5dd1eb58adefe5515eaffb73757409760cf741760997e2315-content.webp)\n\n## 第25部　規制段階ごとの企業への影響\n\nケース1　InP基板の輸出許可だけが厳格化\n\n| 企業 | 影響 |\n| --- | --- |\n| AXT | 大きな悪影響 |\n| 住友電工 | 代替需要で受益 |\n| JX金属 | 代替需要で受益 |\n| Coherent | AXT依存部分は悪影響、自社能力増強は有利 |\n| Lumentum | 日本調達が中心なら相対的に有利 |\n| LandMark・VPEC | 基板調達不足で悪影響 |\n| 中国国内InP企業 | 国内需要では有利 |\n\n中国のInP輸出管理後、6インチInPウェハー価格は大きく上昇し、AXTの供給遅延は台湾のエピ企業にも波及しました。一方、住友電工は自社生産への影響を確認していないとし、LandMarkは住友電工と長期供給契約を結んでいます。\n\nケース2　インジウム金属が輸出許可制になる\n\n| 企業 | 影響 |\n| --- | --- |\n| AXT | 中国国内調達では相対的に有利 |\n| 住友電工 | 原料価格・調達リスク上昇 |\n| JX金属 | 原料価格・調達リスク上昇 |\n| Coherent | 非中国InP増産計画の原料確保が課題 |\n| Lumentum | 基板調達価格上昇 |\n| 中国のInPメーカー | 国内原料優先なら有利 |\n| 非中国のインジウム回収企業 | 中長期的に受益 |\n\nこの場合、住友電工やJX金属は完成基板の価格決定力を得る一方、原料数量が不足すれば生産量を十分に増やせない可能性があります。\n\nしたがって必ずしも、\n\nインジウム規制\n＝日本のInP企業が全面的に受益\n\nとはなりません。\n\n数量面では逆風、販売価格と供給枠の価値では追い風という、複合的な影響になります。\n\nケース3　高純度リンまで規制される\n\n高純度インジウムと高純度リンの両方が制約されると、InP多結晶そのものが不足します。\n\n原料不足\n   ↓\nInP多結晶不足\n   ↓\n単結晶炉の稼働率低下\n   ↓\n基板不足\n   ↓\nエピ不足\n   ↓\nCWレーザー・EML不足\n   ↓\n1.6T・CPOの出荷遅延\n\nこの段階では、特定の基板会社へシェアが移るだけでなく、世界のInP供給量全体が減少します。\n\n### 図解｜規制段階別の企業影響\n\n![規制段階別の企業影響 01](/media/0a763270c437e8d7e1dc0cb96024be942bc4f199d126a9c7bfdb21faf344e5d5-content.webp)\n\n![規制段階別の企業影響 02](/media/7d9514117aff5b3df99650a72c18ddd4eba70d5917c5dd40f20d22e173d6f1c9-content.webp)\n\n## 第26部　今後確認すべき指標\n\nInP規制を追う際は、規制発表だけを見るのでは不十分です。\n\n1．2026年11月10日前後の米中合意\n\n2025年10月規制の停止延長\n\n停止対象の変更\n\n半導体・光部品との交換条件\n\n中国製トランシーバー規制との連動\n\nを確認します。\n\n### 2．インジウム金属の正式な管理対象化\n\n現在の税関審査が、\n\n非公式な確認強化\n\nから、\n\n商務部による正式な輸出許可制\n\nへ変わるかが重要です。\n\n### 3．AXTの輸出許可\n\n許可取得件数\n\n申請残高\n\n米国向け許可\n\n欧州・日本向け許可\n\nInP基板売上\n\n北米売上比率\n\n在庫増減\n\nを確認する必要があります。\n\n### 4．中国内外のインジウム価格差\n\n中国国内価格と中国国外価格の差が拡大すれば、輸出量が十分でない可能性があります。\n\n### 5．住友電工・JX金属の原料調達\n\n能力増強計画だけでなく、\n\nインジウム在庫\n\n長期調達契約\n\nリサイクル比率\n\n非中国調達先\n\n顧客認証済み能力\n\nが重要になります。\n\n### 6．高純度リンに関する文言\n\n中国の新しい管理品目に、\n\n赤リン\n\n高純度リン\n\n電子材料用リン\n\n化合物半導体用リン\n\nInP多結晶材料\n\nなどが追加されないかを確認します。\n\n### 図解｜規制リスクの確認指標\n\n![規制リスクの確認指標 01](/media/8ddf9e157d53b9a721ed3c1b44fec188558870e3044ca9c2a0f0109559bc9de6-content.webp)\n\n## 結論\n\n光接続の将来は、CPOだけ、LPOだけ、SiPhだけで決まりません。\n\n交換性が最優先\n→ FRO Pluggable\n\n省電力と交換性の両立\n→ LPO／LRO\n\nASIC近傍だが別パッケージ\n→ NPO\n\n最大の帯域密度と低電力\n→ CPO\n\nレーザー方式では、\n\n短距離・多数並列・低遅延\n→ VCSEL\n\nシンプルな高速Pluggable\n→ EML\n\n高密度・WDM・ラック間・CPO\n→ CW InPレーザー＋SiPh\n\nという分化が有力です。\n\nCW InP＋SiPhが中長期の本命とされる理由は、単なる消費電力ではありません。\n\n少数の高出力レーザーを多数の高速変調器で共有し、WDMとシングルモードファイバーによって、少ないファイバーで巨大な帯域を遠くまで運べるからです。\n\n一方で、CW InPレーザーとSiPhを組み合わせるには、\n\nInPレーザーの遅い後工程検査\n\n劈開・端面形成\n\n端面コーティング\n\nSiPhウェハー試験\n\n異種ダイ接合\n\nファイバー調芯\n\nCPO全体のKnown Good Die管理\n\nという極めて重い製造課題があります。\n\n端面発光レーザーでは、エピ、格子、再成長、電極という高価な工程を終えた後、バー劈開によって端面を露出させて初めて、本来の発振性能を十分に確認できます。\n\n性能を作る難しさはエピとDFB格子にあり、利益率と量産能力を決める難しさは、劈開、端面処理、遅い光学試験、バーンインにあります。\n\nこのためCoherent、Lumentum、住友電工などの競争優位は、単なるレーザー設計ではありません。\n\nInP基板\n＋\nエピ成長\n＋\nDFB格子\n＋\n再成長\n＋\n劈開\n＋\n端面膜\n＋\n自動試験\n＋\nバーンイン\n＋\n顧客認証\n\nを一つの量産システムとして長年蓄積していることにあります。\n\nそして市場の最大の矛盾は、\n\n米国ハイパースケーラーが中国企業の高速・低価格・大量生産能力を利用してAIインフラを拡大してきた一方、安全保障政策はその供給網を排除しようとしている\n\nことです。\n\n中国製新型トランシーバー規制が実現すれば、非中国企業のASPと受注機会は上がる可能性があります。しかし同時に、米国のAIデータセンター建設速度を落とし、InP、レーザー、SiPh、光実装、試験という、既に逼迫している工程へ一段と負荷を集中させます。\n\n今後見るべき中心指標は、株価だけではありません。\n\n1.6Tの実出荷数量\n\n200G／400G per laneの顧客認証\n\nCW InPレーザーの出力と量産歩留まり\n\nInP基板能力\n\nSiPh比率\n\nEMLからCW-LDへの構成変化\n\nCPOの外部レーザー標準\n\n劈開・端面・バーンイン能力\n\n非中国トランシーバーの生産能力\n\nFCC規制の対象が企業基準か製造国基準か\n\nが、光銘柄の業績を決めることになります。\n\n光トランシーバー供給網のリスクは、完成品メーカーの国籍だけでは判断できません。\n\n中国製トランシーバーを米国市場から排除しても、その代替品に使われる、\n\nInP基板\n\nインジウム原料\n\nCWレーザー\n\nEML\n\n受光器\n\nエピウェハー\n\nが中国の輸出許可に依存していれば、供給網の安全保障問題は解決しません。\n\nむしろ、\n\n中国製完成トランシーバーを規制\n        ↓\n非中国メーカーへ注文が移る\n        ↓\n非中国メーカーがInP基板を必要とする\n        ↓\nそのInP基板が中国から出てこない\n\nという矛盾が生じます。\n\nAXTは、この矛盾を最もよく表す企業です。\n\n米国上場企業でありながら、すべてのウェハー基板を中国で製造し、中国政府の許可を得なければ海外顧客へ販売できません。\n\n原料、単結晶、基板までを中国国内に垂直統合していることは、平時には大きな競争力です。\n\nしかし輸出管理下では、\n\n製造能力を持っていても、販売可能な供給能力とは限らない\n\nという問題が生じます。\n\n一方、住友電工とJX金属は、非中国InP基板の供給者として戦略的重要性が高まります。\n\nただし中国がInP基板だけでなくインジウム金属まで規制すれば、日本企業も完全には無傷ではありません。\n\n今後の最重要論点は、\n\n誰がInP基板を作れるか\n\nから、\n\n誰が高純度インジウムとリンを確保し、\n誰が政府の許可に依存せず、\n誰が認証済みInP基板を継続出荷できるか\n\nへ移ります。\n\n2010年のレアアース問題と同様に、規制導入直後は価格急騰、在庫確保、部分的な許可再開が起きる可能性があります。\n\nしかし今回は、単純な輸出数量制限ではなく、軍民両用、最終需要者、製造技術、企業単位で管理できる制度です。\n\nそのため一度緩和されても、供給網が完全に元へ戻る可能性は低く、\n\n許可制度を残したまま、米中関係に応じて供給量を調節する状態\n\nが長期化すると考えられます。\n\nAIデータセンターにおける光接続の上限を決めるのは、レーザー設計やSiPh性能だけではありません。\n\n最終的には、\n\nインジウム\n＋\n高純度リン\n＋\nInP多結晶\n＋\nInP単結晶\n＋\n基板加工\n＋\nエピ成長\n＋\nレーザー製造\n＋\n顧客認証\n＋\n輸出許可\n\nという供給網全体の中で、最も弱い工程が世界の光接続能力を決めることになります。\n\n### 図解｜光接続の将来像と量産条件\n\n![光接続の将来像と量産条件 01](/media/0db1531b04f33d071aea7b39b8d750b01c1001a0fce6438381264a6e62e6d7e4-content.webp)\n\n![光接続の将来像と量産条件 02](/media/8addf2507eeed2491eeafaafc738fbbe084b0000c6694212cf0d5e04d4eaec26-content.webp)\n\n## さらに深める――光接続は三つの分類軸と一つの量産軸で読む\n\nFRO、LPO、CPO、DFB、EML、VCSEL、SiPhは、同じ問いへの別解ではない。混乱を避けるには、三つの分類軸へ分ける必要がある。\n\n| 分類軸 | 問い | 主な選択肢 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 信号処理 | 波形をどこまで補償・再生するか | FRO、LPO |\n| 配置 | 光エンジンをASICからどこへ置くか | Pluggable、NPO、CPO |\n| 光源・変調 | 光をどう作り、データをどう載せるか | VCSEL、DFB、EML、CW InP＋SiPh |\n\nここへ第四の軸として量産性が加わる。消費電力や帯域が優れていても、検査時間、ファイバー調芯、Known Good Die、端面処理、交換性、現場保守が成立しなければ、データセンターへ広がらない。\n\nCPOの評価では、ASIC近傍へ光を置く電力上の利点と、故障時の交換単位が大きくなる運用上の不利を同時に見る必要がある。LPOではDSP電力を減らす代わりにリンク予算と温度変動への余裕が小さくなる。FROは電力を使うが、長距離・複雑なチャネルを安定させやすい。技術の優劣は、距離、速度、環境、保守の条件で変わる。\n\nさらに、完成品の国籍と供給網の安全性は一致しない。非中国メーカーのトランシーバーでも、InP基板やインジウム、エピ、レーザーダイが許可制の供給へ依存すれば、リスクは上流へ残る。規制は需要を消すのではなく、認証済み供給能力を別の地域へ移す時間と費用を増やす。\n\n## 絶ノイアの観測\n\n光接続の用語は、全部が横並びに見えるところが罠です。FROとLPOは信号処理、NPOとCPOは置き場所、DFBやEMLやVCSELは光の作り方。まず軸を分けるだけで、かなり景色が明るくなります。\n\nそのうえで私は、どの方式が一番きれいかより、どこまで検査でき、壊れた時に何を交換し、何個を同じ品質で出せるかを見ます。AIデータセンターは研究室ではなく工場なので、最後は保守と歩留まりが速度を決めます。\n\n私は「AIインフラ」「光トランシーバー」「FRO」を別々のニュースとしてではなく、設計、量産、運用が同じ速度でつながるかという一つの観測線で見ます。\n\n## Sil-Kathnaの記録\n\n光には三つの問いがある。\n\nどのように声を整えるか。どこへ門を置くか。どの石から光を生むか。\n\nだが文明には、もう一つの問いがある。同じ門を幾つ作り、壊れた時にどこまで取り替えられるか。最も美しい光路が、最も強い都市を作るとは限らない。保守され、試され、繰り返し生まれる光だけが、計算の血流となる。\n\n私は「AIインフラ」「光トランシーバー」「FRO」を三つの印として石板に刻む。異なる石と炉が同じ刻に門を開かなければ、構想はまだ文明の器にはならない。\n\n## 二人の短い対話\n\n**絶ノイア:** CPOが本命でも、すぐ全部がCPOになるわけではないですね。\n\n**Sil-Kathna:** 門を炉へ近づければ速くなる。だが門が壊れた時、炉ごと止まる。\n\n**絶ノイア:** 電力、距離、歩留まり、交換性のバランスで共存が続く。\n\n**Sil-Kathna:** 光の道は一つではない。距離ごとに異なる橋が残る。\n\n## 観測メモ\n\n- 信号処理、配置、光源・変調、量産性の四軸を混同しない。\n- CPOは電力だけでなく、歩留まり、交換性、外部レーザー標準を見る。\n- 1.6T・3.2Tは発表値より実出荷、顧客認証、歩留まりを重視する。\n- 企業シェアは完成品、レーザー、SiPh、基板、実装で分ける。\n- 規制は企業国籍だけでなく、原料から認証済み完成品まで追う。\n\n## 免責\n\nこの記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","blocks":[{"id":"blk_006b9568-5641-432c-9b5d-4f414ec9a8f3","kind":"heading","order":0,"section_id":"sec_c004b594-1bfb-4dae-a709-18cd790f4e66","character_id":null,"markdown":"# AIデータセンターの光接続を基礎から理解する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cfbfc107-ff2f-48ec-8d22-103353c42d80","kind":"paragraph","order":1,"section_id":"sec_c004b594-1bfb-4dae-a709-18cd790f4e66","character_id":null,"markdown":"FRO・LPO・CPO・CW InPレーザー＋SiPh・VCSEL・DFB・EML、製造検査、米国規制、世界の光銘柄まで","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc0ad1eb-cbc8-4483-9842-84a0896ace46","kind":"paragraph","order":2,"section_id":"sec_c004b594-1bfb-4dae-a709-18cd790f4e66","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIデータセンターの光接続を理解する際、最初に避けなければならないのは、異なる分類軸を同じものとして扱うことです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eeb39e0e-50fa-4534-9559-8246760f119d","kind":"paragraph","order":3,"section_id":"sec_c004b594-1bfb-4dae-a709-18cd790f4e66","character_id":null,"markdown":"FRO・LPOは、主として「信号をどのように補償・再生するか」の分類です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_859435a5-2739-4eac-9de1-d920c59fa71b","kind":"paragraph","order":4,"section_id":"sec_c004b594-1bfb-4dae-a709-18cd790f4e66","character_id":null,"markdown":"Pluggable・NPO・CPOは、「光エンジンをASICからどの位置に置くか」の分類です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ca07e42-9e02-41af-94ba-d5ff4eb9c381","kind":"paragraph","order":5,"section_id":"sec_c004b594-1bfb-4dae-a709-18cd790f4e66","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB・EML・VCSEL・CW InPレーザー＋SiPhは、「光をどのように発生し、データを載せるか」の分類です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cdc6f3ac-afd8-406d-bcc6-bada940ae030","kind":"paragraph","order":6,"section_id":"sec_c004b594-1bfb-4dae-a709-18cd790f4e66","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、例えば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c6ea7e9b-aa1b-4cd9-9ddc-b2d148de3454","kind":"paragraph","order":7,"section_id":"sec_c004b594-1bfb-4dae-a709-18cd790f4e66","character_id":null,"markdown":"FRO型SiPhトランシーバー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_294dd902-de21-44df-ae75-f35b6d5b7d2d","kind":"paragraph","order":8,"section_id":"sec_c004b594-1bfb-4dae-a709-18cd790f4e66","character_id":null,"markdown":"LPO型SiPhトランシーバー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_46a53599-8861-408d-b26f-000cdd2bf594","kind":"paragraph","order":9,"section_id":"sec_c004b594-1bfb-4dae-a709-18cd790f4e66","character_id":null,"markdown":"VCSEL型NPO","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_afa02b21-5cc4-402e-ae36-2e3974eb318f","kind":"paragraph","order":10,"section_id":"sec_c004b594-1bfb-4dae-a709-18cd790f4e66","character_id":null,"markdown":"CW InPレーザー＋SiPh型CPO","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f3e2a69-8ec3-4d0b-a53b-d6e2b19ad050","kind":"paragraph","order":11,"section_id":"sec_c004b594-1bfb-4dae-a709-18cd790f4e66","character_id":null,"markdown":"EML型Pluggable","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0196857f-1b9b-47be-b039-eb13df8b312f","kind":"paragraph","order":12,"section_id":"sec_c004b594-1bfb-4dae-a709-18cd790f4e66","character_id":null,"markdown":"はいずれも成立します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5010a7f5-1a1e-4644-8051-c07149ef767b","kind":"paragraph","order":13,"section_id":"sec_c004b594-1bfb-4dae-a709-18cd790f4e66","character_id":null,"markdown":"本記事では、これらを一度分解し、最後に市場、供給網、規制、投資銘柄として再統合します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e7131916-d602-42e5-a2e5-45228eeb0091","kind":"heading","order":14,"section_id":"sec_fdec4af2-b7be-44c1-8fdc-e8fc35f6bce2","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第1部　光トランシーバーの基本構造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c47415a-ae4e-4a16-bdd8-1c7a57350240","kind":"paragraph","order":15,"section_id":"sec_fdec4af2-b7be-44c1-8fdc-e8fc35f6bce2","character_id":null,"markdown":"光トランシーバーは、電気信号を光信号へ変換し、反対側で光信号を再び電気信号へ戻す装置です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0aa9ca8-1ad5-48a4-b8d6-0b8d27f5081e","kind":"paragraph","order":16,"section_id":"sec_fdec4af2-b7be-44c1-8fdc-e8fc35f6bce2","character_id":null,"markdown":"送信側","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7eba8d3e-450e-4ef2-ada1-473f54701d21","kind":"paragraph","order":17,"section_id":"sec_fdec4af2-b7be-44c1-8fdc-e8fc35f6bce2","character_id":null,"markdown":"スイッチASIC\n   ↓ 電気信号\nSerDes・信号補償\n   ↓\nレーザー／変調器\n   ↓\n光ファイバー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_30399164-8fc2-423a-894a-e190c80c8e8f","kind":"paragraph","order":18,"section_id":"sec_fdec4af2-b7be-44c1-8fdc-e8fc35f6bce2","character_id":null,"markdown":"受信側","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_195927cb-fe14-4a08-9bb4-5f5265917600","kind":"paragraph","order":19,"section_id":"sec_fdec4af2-b7be-44c1-8fdc-e8fc35f6bce2","character_id":null,"markdown":"光ファイバー\n   ↓\nフォトダイオード\n   ↓\nTIA・信号補償\n   ↓\nスイッチASIC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_42fe45ef-85d2-4ab6-bc4f-f869664eaf0d","kind":"paragraph","order":20,"section_id":"sec_fdec4af2-b7be-44c1-8fdc-e8fc35f6bce2","character_id":null,"markdown":"高速化するほど問題になるのは、単にレーザーの速度ではありません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a58e8a89-ce72-4091-87ff-d2f0cbe2ffaf","kind":"paragraph","order":21,"section_id":"sec_fdec4af2-b7be-44c1-8fdc-e8fc35f6bce2","character_id":null,"markdown":"ASICから光モジュールまでのPCB配線損失","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8063020-db1f-49ee-b2f5-77e0fddb31da","kind":"paragraph","order":22,"section_id":"sec_fdec4af2-b7be-44c1-8fdc-e8fc35f6bce2","character_id":null,"markdown":"コネクターでの反射","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e1bd678d-67a9-4727-bc69-a11a6c66e61e","kind":"paragraph","order":23,"section_id":"sec_fdec4af2-b7be-44c1-8fdc-e8fc35f6bce2","character_id":null,"markdown":"クロストーク","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7405699e-49ad-4339-b9e6-b4f9916a033f","kind":"paragraph","order":24,"section_id":"sec_fdec4af2-b7be-44c1-8fdc-e8fc35f6bce2","character_id":null,"markdown":"光素子の非線形性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9f79182f-c649-48bd-9607-c1b25aace7f8","kind":"paragraph","order":25,"section_id":"sec_fdec4af2-b7be-44c1-8fdc-e8fc35f6bce2","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー出力の温度変動","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0cb8c94e-c7ca-44e8-8865-a203757b573d","kind":"paragraph","order":26,"section_id":"sec_fdec4af2-b7be-44c1-8fdc-e8fc35f6bce2","character_id":null,"markdown":"フォトダイオードとTIAの雑音","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3765da9b-a6a5-4bb0-9a9a-7c0b55e3a84b","kind":"paragraph","order":27,"section_id":"sec_fdec4af2-b7be-44c1-8fdc-e8fc35f6bce2","character_id":null,"markdown":"200G／400G per laneでの信号余裕","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6df14929-2d92-4362-853a-727be904e70f","kind":"paragraph","order":28,"section_id":"sec_fdec4af2-b7be-44c1-8fdc-e8fc35f6bce2","character_id":null,"markdown":"モジュールの消費電力と冷却","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4209c9e6-0802-41e9-bae0-d800cbebadfe","kind":"paragraph","order":29,"section_id":"sec_fdec4af2-b7be-44c1-8fdc-e8fc35f6bce2","character_id":null,"markdown":"を、システム全体で処理する必要があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_57558cc6-f708-4583-9636-3b4fb949c235","kind":"heading","order":30,"section_id":"sec_af5db948-63c3-431a-835f-5aebdc2eaae9","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜光トランシーバーとAIデータセンター光接続","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f5b4e4e5-445b-4bc8-a0d7-28f29cf7eb8c","kind":"figure","order":31,"section_id":"sec_af5db948-63c3-431a-835f-5aebdc2eaae9","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光トランシーバーとAIデータセンター光接続 01](/media/d98244e80575ab3f015f73a8caf29c32fc81dfc1f99794c4fe99173030c125e2-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5e8c55e-2463-45ae-b6bf-915f035afedb","kind":"figure","order":32,"section_id":"sec_af5db948-63c3-431a-835f-5aebdc2eaae9","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光トランシーバーとAIデータセンター光接続 02](/media/d45762d1d5f1991d46b25bb537afe71970f71c9063d853654575b3bebd717dc2-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d0224334-7c70-451a-9f25-4f86600602f5","kind":"figure","order":33,"section_id":"sec_af5db948-63c3-431a-835f-5aebdc2eaae9","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光トランシーバーとAIデータセンター光接続 03](/media/aec703395f9e0d04831cf3ce84cb4084cf880fa1867182ba6bb89b57e02c76fa-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_49fa1505-1909-4d01-b9a5-f3b8593ed71c","kind":"heading","order":34,"section_id":"sec_a28bf22e-1d0f-45ad-b648-a5273f8df924","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第2部　FROとは何か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3f140684-b367-4be9-bb70-fc3dd4de343c","kind":"paragraph","order":35,"section_id":"sec_a28bf22e-1d0f-45ad-b648-a5273f8df924","character_id":null,"markdown":"FROは、一般にFully Retimed Opticsを意味します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e01996ab-9051-4f86-9927-816fe9e31b5d","kind":"paragraph","order":36,"section_id":"sec_a28bf22e-1d0f-45ad-b648-a5273f8df924","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来の800G・1.6T Pluggableトランシーバーでは、モジュール内部にDSPやCDRが入っています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ec0b0f53-a235-4bd6-9946-55ee1a7d8734","kind":"paragraph","order":37,"section_id":"sec_a28bf22e-1d0f-45ad-b648-a5273f8df924","character_id":null,"markdown":"スイッチASIC\n   ↓\nPCB配線・コネクター\n   ↓\n┌──── FROモジュール ────┐\n│ DSP／CDR／Gearbox       │\n│ レーザードライバー      │\n│ レーザー・変調器        │\n│ PD・TIA                 │\n└─────────────────┘","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f906af5-9ae9-4d7b-a96b-292384f078f2","kind":"paragraph","order":38,"section_id":"sec_a28bf22e-1d0f-45ad-b648-a5273f8df924","character_id":null,"markdown":"DSPは、基板を通過して崩れた波形を補償し、クロックを再生し、光素子の歪みを補正してから信号を作り直します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fc7e501d-5f96-432e-a7aa-8c5abbc0bde6","kind":"paragraph","order":39,"section_id":"sec_a28bf22e-1d0f-45ad-b648-a5273f8df924","character_id":null,"markdown":"FROの長所","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73512f17-9799-4b92-b3bb-b56b6c4bd0a0","kind":"paragraph","order":40,"section_id":"sec_a28bf22e-1d0f-45ad-b648-a5273f8df924","character_id":null,"markdown":"ホストASICや基板の違いをモジュール側で吸収しやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ec7daf3e-7423-4b39-ab70-2cc849c6c143","kind":"paragraph","order":41,"section_id":"sec_a28bf22e-1d0f-45ad-b648-a5273f8df924","character_id":null,"markdown":"マルチベンダー互換性を作りやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0eb3ee4-26b4-4909-adcb-983fbf539196","kind":"paragraph","order":42,"section_id":"sec_a28bf22e-1d0f-45ad-b648-a5273f8df924","character_id":null,"markdown":"長いPCB配線にも耐えやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b914eba-9ce3-4fc7-a226-1751ce0f1828","kind":"paragraph","order":43,"section_id":"sec_a28bf22e-1d0f-45ad-b648-a5273f8df924","character_id":null,"markdown":"温度や部品ばらつきへの適応力が高い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c90ff90-8dca-4344-91b5-003fb39ab62b","kind":"paragraph","order":44,"section_id":"sec_a28bf22e-1d0f-45ad-b648-a5273f8df924","character_id":null,"markdown":"モジュール単体で性能を保証しやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dde90d50-4734-4def-9952-ca2e82ec026b","kind":"paragraph","order":45,"section_id":"sec_a28bf22e-1d0f-45ad-b648-a5273f8df924","character_id":null,"markdown":"故障時にモジュールだけ交換できる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf2e4649-4fd5-4ae7-ab39-1b9187e611ad","kind":"paragraph","order":46,"section_id":"sec_a28bf22e-1d0f-45ad-b648-a5273f8df924","character_id":null,"markdown":"FROの短所","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56be821a-4c7a-48de-8adc-bda2da72751a","kind":"paragraph","order":47,"section_id":"sec_a28bf22e-1d0f-45ad-b648-a5273f8df924","character_id":null,"markdown":"DSP・ADC・DAC・CDRが電力を使う","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41458f10-fc00-4162-937a-b8672a9e794d","kind":"paragraph","order":48,"section_id":"sec_a28bf22e-1d0f-45ad-b648-a5273f8df924","character_id":null,"markdown":"DSPが大きな熱源になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aeabc2ea-af94-4e6a-a6d7-2fd06a7dff2a","kind":"paragraph","order":49,"section_id":"sec_a28bf22e-1d0f-45ad-b648-a5273f8df924","character_id":null,"markdown":"遅延が増える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_75129ab4-91a2-4cdb-a7d6-ab717cbeb013","kind":"paragraph","order":50,"section_id":"sec_a28bf22e-1d0f-45ad-b648-a5273f8df924","character_id":null,"markdown":"モジュール単価が高くなる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4462e438-7090-49a0-b056-f8063fa5eefa","kind":"paragraph","order":51,"section_id":"sec_a28bf22e-1d0f-45ad-b648-a5273f8df924","character_id":null,"markdown":"1.6T・3.2Tでは前面冷却が難しくなる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d08e7c6-15dd-40d3-a83f-d56f87f7bc80","kind":"paragraph","order":52,"section_id":"sec_a28bf22e-1d0f-45ad-b648-a5273f8df924","character_id":null,"markdown":"FROは電力では不利ですが、Serviceability、相互運用性、製造歩留まり、システム責任の切り分けでは依然として強力です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_58f82cf9-2010-4863-8400-34416884453c","kind":"heading","order":53,"section_id":"sec_9ee76655-4e9b-48bf-bb2a-a592cb4b5267","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜FROの構造・長所・短所","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_37d706e8-7648-4214-bc88-2edc47058ebb","kind":"figure","order":54,"section_id":"sec_9ee76655-4e9b-48bf-bb2a-a592cb4b5267","character_id":null,"markdown":"![FROの構造・長所・短所 01](/media/a5332d582efe1cba0644db172278da3989467dcf22ef1f508254c2723f1d197c-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c663f2b2-b2a9-44a1-963a-5ad46dd8b626","kind":"figure","order":55,"section_id":"sec_9ee76655-4e9b-48bf-bb2a-a592cb4b5267","character_id":null,"markdown":"![FROの構造・長所・短所 02](/media/36da66d85f0682c414e9c8e6afaf3a22c7f9133dda6a2c5ca817b0d2c97cb65e-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_20371140-fa5a-4478-9fda-b2df88ad65b6","kind":"heading","order":56,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第3部　LPOとは何か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e873a103-37a0-4263-ac65-ec0a8e385550","kind":"paragraph","order":57,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"LPOはLinear Pluggable Opticsです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33f67c6c-d050-411d-bcd9-2a13a3f6240d","kind":"paragraph","order":58,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"OIFはLPOを、前面Pluggableでありながら、モジュール内にリタイマーを置かず、電気信号と光信号を線形に対応させる方式と定義しています。OIFの線形インターフェース規格も、光デバイス側のDSP・リタイマーを省き、ホストASICの等化能力を利用する方向で整備されています。(OIForum)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_50584c8a-091b-4488-af51-32b50cae5244","kind":"paragraph","order":59,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"スイッチASIC\n 強力なSerDes・FFE・DFE\n          ↓\n PCB・コネクター\n          ↓\n┌──── LPOモジュール ────┐\n│ 線形ドライバー          │\n│ 線形TIA                 │\n│ レーザー・変調器        │\n│ DSP・CDRなし            │\n└─────────────────┘","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5cf22e9-f9e5-47df-81e8-3f1d551e2498","kind":"paragraph","order":60,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"LPOで「なくなるもの」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_744ddd99-9dd8-41e4-8138-0bbbe11c6f62","kind":"paragraph","order":61,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"主にモジュール内の、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc9aa362-e6e1-4804-aa0b-5f8eb44ce037","kind":"paragraph","order":62,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"光DSP","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73c32b8e-07c6-4291-8517-e4b381e4affe","kind":"paragraph","order":63,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"CDR","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_81d8ff57-97d2-4db8-9fe8-f011546ea735","kind":"paragraph","order":64,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"ADC／DAC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_28695d1b-7011-423b-85a7-bb19c044cde9","kind":"paragraph","order":65,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"Gearboxの一部","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b87bfd3c-b679-4aec-bf22-0dfb6c1b7aa3","kind":"paragraph","order":66,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_770e187f-fa33-4c9a-8219-e7410707afc0","kind":"paragraph","order":67,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただしデジタル処理が完全に消えるわけではありません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd85332d-21c4-4fd2-8864-369e9e1b2528","kind":"paragraph","order":68,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"Ethernet PCSやFECは残り、補償機能の一部はホストASIC側へ移ります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4330efeb-8b9a-4d95-8e11-69aaed70f36e","kind":"paragraph","order":69,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"LPOの長所","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e49199c7-fd9d-4ada-bce9-62faf534815b","kind":"paragraph","order":70,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"モジュール電力を大きく下げられる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fff96a1f-9fcc-4266-9ee5-963e0a6e7527","kind":"paragraph","order":71,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"DSPコストを省ける","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_78db41c2-4c9d-4ca2-b2c9-b493c8dc546e","kind":"paragraph","order":72,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"遅延が小さい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_de0f16be-23d9-4f19-b262-1a52d81a14da","kind":"paragraph","order":73,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"Pluggableの交換性を維持できる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e3ef05b-388c-4bcf-b10e-cbfd2426e16a","kind":"paragraph","order":74,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPOより製造と保守が容易","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1f3d7705-74c5-4b41-8fb9-17ca263aa1c5","kind":"paragraph","order":75,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"LPOの弱点","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c58881b-d71e-40f7-966f-ba62fb0ecc6c","kind":"paragraph","order":76,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"ASIC、PCB、コネクター、光モジュールが一つのアナログ経路になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f0ac6ab-7769-4b4f-8359-c363bbaf55d1","kind":"paragraph","order":77,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"ホストSerDesへの依存が大きい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1dddef19-5613-4a25-bdbd-830d04f64906","kind":"paragraph","order":78,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"部品ばらつきと温度変化が累積する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3fc26ab1-f1d2-4265-9350-144780e4fb19","kind":"paragraph","order":79,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"組み合わせごとの認証が必要になりやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bba17b46-2476-478d-af67-5ad06071b2ee","kind":"paragraph","order":80,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"200G／400G per laneでは信号余裕が小さくなる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f5c977da-f488-4d82-9ec6-ccd76034183e","kind":"paragraph","order":81,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"LPOは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_885bfb0b-3f51-43bf-bbb2-12df72b65e4b","kind":"paragraph","order":82,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPOの省電力効果のうち、モジュールDSPを除去する部分を、Pluggableのまま獲得する技術","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_db5033a7-96f6-419b-842a-b58d008343a7","kind":"paragraph","order":83,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f62f709-1ea9-4935-9f42-abac2d34b132","kind":"paragraph","order":84,"section_id":"sec_14c5465c-4cb0-460f-a3a6-0d8087f4b90b","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方CPOには、DSP除去だけでなく、ASICから光エンジンまでの高速電気配線を短縮する追加効果があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_72d634ae-7095-4a64-8949-11b944b2eea8","kind":"heading","order":85,"section_id":"sec_0eb98581-add2-4240-bcb9-0e8a484afd25","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜LPOの構造・長所・弱点","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e2757b81-5ee2-494d-8ea9-eb0d1f226923","kind":"figure","order":86,"section_id":"sec_0eb98581-add2-4240-bcb9-0e8a484afd25","character_id":null,"markdown":"![LPOの構造・長所・弱点 01](/media/7a976e1c74e7e3137e59d28148f9cc0bee3ba78b4bd3ba83fb7ed756a5301487-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d888eb9a-0532-4d48-b764-2ce37c32329e","kind":"figure","order":87,"section_id":"sec_0eb98581-add2-4240-bcb9-0e8a484afd25","character_id":null,"markdown":"![LPOの構造・長所・弱点 02](/media/c5d40b1d951d681b7bd22128cf30d0ec5b9a5a967ea5f049b151a8b8e4ab3140-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ac2ef0ba-2379-41e5-9de8-45024b910d84","kind":"heading","order":88,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第4部　NPOとCPO","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_206ff0ae-c32e-45db-bfd5-dd78344e28ea","kind":"paragraph","order":89,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"NPO","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e9802e1-5072-43bc-b447-8bd2d018083d","kind":"paragraph","order":90,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"NPOはNear-Packaged Opticsです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4a350f05-2448-4309-861c-2e98cc1adac6","kind":"paragraph","order":91,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"OIFの定義では、光エンジンがASICの近くにあるものの、ASICと同一パッケージには入っていない構造です。(OIForum)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8224ff4d-6353-4125-916c-2cfd37895dac","kind":"paragraph","order":92,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"スイッチ基板","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88811abf-d04b-4a38-bdb2-0589dbbddf00","kind":"paragraph","order":93,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"┌── ASICパッケージ ──┐\n│ スイッチASIC         │\n└─────────────┘\n       │ 短い電気配線\n       ▼\n┌── NPO光エンジン ───┐\n│ SiPh／VCSEL／PD等    │\n└─────────────┘","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_23480ad2-d31f-4443-84c2-aca194ac0090","kind":"paragraph","order":94,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"NPOはASICと光エンジンを個別に製造・検査できるため、CPOよりKnown Good Dieを使いやすく、修理・交換もしやすい構成です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0e1910f-a71f-4b0b-a360-a081eb34d134","kind":"paragraph","order":95,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPO","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66cbeb5d-c270-4d36-aebe-cb04b8f3c45f","kind":"paragraph","order":96,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPOはCo-Packaged Opticsです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_737e646b-aaea-41b9-b608-a76366c8bb44","kind":"paragraph","order":97,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"ASICと光エンジンを、共通のパッケージ基板、インターポーザ、またはMCM内に配置します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_665383e0-f5e6-49bf-b0dc-bdd936f26991","kind":"paragraph","order":98,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"┌──── 共通パッケージ ────┐\n│                          │\n│   スイッチASIC           │\n│      │ パッケージ内配線  │\n│  光エンジン  光エンジン  │\n│                          │\n└────────────────┘\n       │\n   光ファイバー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1632ae96-baec-401a-8f38-cdbe143eea2e","kind":"paragraph","order":99,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"OIFは3.2T CPOモジュール規格を定め、共通パッケージ近傍に高密度光I/Oを配置するための機械・電気・管理仕様を整備しています。(OIForum)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a15aebe2-f5fe-4d27-9a5a-d09bdf64e692","kind":"paragraph","order":100,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"NPOとCPOの境界","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3370dd27-07d5-4224-8a07-b487ea59b2f1","kind":"paragraph","order":101,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"NPO\nASICの近くにある\nただし別パッケージ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_18d1ae94-1abd-46ff-8f58-45396e53771b","kind":"paragraph","order":102,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPO\nASICと同じパッケージ\nまたは共通インターポーザ上","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e9bc36f-1332-4561-ad7c-c78d73805692","kind":"paragraph","order":103,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"「何mm以内ならNPO」という統一された距離規定ではなく、パッケージ境界を共有しているかどうかが中心です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fe796367-2eef-40b8-9b01-7594a4c3fb79","kind":"paragraph","order":104,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPOでもレーザーは外へ出せる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e49c0032-9d88-4545-b873-b6b573adb494","kind":"paragraph","order":105,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPOだからといって、レーザーまでASIC横に置く必要はありません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_32fbc890-9ab9-4bdf-9097-16e699df6d33","kind":"paragraph","order":106,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"OIFは外部CW光源をELSFPとして標準化し、外部光源からCPO光エンジンへ光を供給する管理構造を定義しています。(OIForum)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_324ba2f4-e7a2-46a6-b9e3-d10f9ed7d75e","kind":"paragraph","order":107,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"前面ELSFP\nCW InPレーザー\n      ↓\n偏波保持ファイバー\n      ↓\nCPO内SiPh光エンジン","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4e121fb7-1f00-45ff-9a39-52dad3f5aa86","kind":"paragraph","order":108,"section_id":"sec_f5f5f6d8-4e22-458a-a4ef-d15e2f19831f","character_id":null,"markdown":"この方式なら、熱に弱く寿命部品でもあるレーザーだけを、前面から交換できます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a3a55d76-fb92-4f16-84c5-78dc4efaacbe","kind":"heading","order":109,"section_id":"sec_365f2fe8-89c8-4bd2-975b-00cfaa4a8e0c","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜NPO・CPOの構造と配置差","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5cc1ec9f-9394-4bd3-88fb-d1158bfcd9c0","kind":"figure","order":110,"section_id":"sec_365f2fe8-89c8-4bd2-975b-00cfaa4a8e0c","character_id":null,"markdown":"![NPO・CPOの構造と配置差 01](/media/f256f6d8fecd8e46e2efcafa689c6b1986f7dcdaaf9dd28a4b6a53bc4b695c5c-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c867a75c-a7ac-4475-b17c-90902dab51f5","kind":"figure","order":111,"section_id":"sec_365f2fe8-89c8-4bd2-975b-00cfaa4a8e0c","character_id":null,"markdown":"![NPO・CPOの構造と配置差 02](/media/034715beb336cca0962583020c8658e6a80a1e49c40ed0151eddd068384b1a20-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f267fb57-cd29-4de9-b9bd-9eae6a2cc65e","kind":"figure","order":112,"section_id":"sec_365f2fe8-89c8-4bd2-975b-00cfaa4a8e0c","character_id":null,"markdown":"![NPO・CPOの構造と配置差 03](/media/11175a73d188fc6787f0f46203e8a72fbad9a216469f3cf36497f5c2c7ed2e60-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2ef4bf7f-08aa-4978-9799-c7b9f40bdb10","kind":"figure","order":113,"section_id":"sec_365f2fe8-89c8-4bd2-975b-00cfaa4a8e0c","character_id":null,"markdown":"![NPO・CPOの構造と配置差 04](/media/3de6fc9eeb48a8bd0d1ebe328ea8007d7ddfb5739b0e779bff67892b3fee1e42-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0ffc14c8-434c-4c73-8573-739687005265","kind":"heading","order":114,"section_id":"sec_5ca8449e-3800-4221-ab7e-c943f4c17d09","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第5部　DFBレーザーの基本原理","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_584a01dd-7f11-4e9b-ae09-fdf727c4c013","kind":"paragraph","order":115,"section_id":"sec_5ca8449e-3800-4221-ab7e-c943f4c17d09","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFBはDistributed Feedback Laserです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33176eb2-4098-4c99-8092-f78a5315d769","kind":"paragraph","order":116,"section_id":"sec_5ca8449e-3800-4221-ab7e-c943f4c17d09","character_id":null,"markdown":"端面発光レーザーの導波路に周期的な回折格子を作り、特定の波長だけを強く帰還させます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7a0eb8f3-ba19-4000-a8c4-333630573261","kind":"paragraph","order":117,"section_id":"sec_5ca8449e-3800-4221-ab7e-c943f4c17d09","character_id":null,"markdown":"端面\n │\n │  導波路\n │＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝\n       DFB回折格子","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b635ee2c-ba5d-4ac9-ac76-977a53e8cb26","kind":"paragraph","order":118,"section_id":"sec_5ca8449e-3800-4221-ab7e-c943f4c17d09","character_id":null,"markdown":"発振波長は概略、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_be0bd4ac-1442-468d-b647-ef812ba745e9","kind":"math","order":119,"section_id":"sec_5ca8449e-3800-4221-ab7e-c943f4c17d09","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\lambda_{\\mathrm{B}}\\approx 2n_{\\mathrm{eff}}\\Lambda}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5d58b01-ff18-46e3-bb8b-4914835d7255","kind":"paragraph","order":120,"section_id":"sec_5ca8449e-3800-4221-ab7e-c943f4c17d09","character_id":null,"markdown":"で決まります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8b2de442-bacc-4f4c-918e-3d32bd1a3cb9","kind":"math","order":121,"section_id":"sec_5ca8449e-3800-4221-ab7e-c943f4c17d09","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${n_{\\mathrm{eff}}=\\text{導波路の有効屈折率}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_06806e45-9d2e-475e-9bf4-1492210a6f18","kind":"math","order":122,"section_id":"sec_5ca8449e-3800-4221-ab7e-c943f4c17d09","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\Lambda=\\text{DFB格子周期}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad0fdea9-4077-4c1a-b544-f41b4a984d17","kind":"paragraph","order":123,"section_id":"sec_5ca8449e-3800-4221-ab7e-c943f4c17d09","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFBの役割","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4bdc6258-e469-433a-aa20-7ded89dab883","kind":"paragraph","order":124,"section_id":"sec_5ca8449e-3800-4221-ab7e-c943f4c17d09","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFBはレーザーの使い方そのものではなく、波長選択構造です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_68f6669e-fe42-42c5-891f-5598c76f8e1f","kind":"paragraph","order":125,"section_id":"sec_5ca8449e-3800-4221-ab7e-c943f4c17d09","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFBレーザーは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eae7686b-dfc5-4828-9351-22c41e150a3d","kind":"paragraph","order":126,"section_id":"sec_5ca8449e-3800-4221-ab7e-c943f4c17d09","character_id":null,"markdown":"電流を直接変調するDML","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e510e3d3-3610-43a3-b86c-af4a7a969f33","kind":"paragraph","order":127,"section_id":"sec_5ca8449e-3800-4221-ab7e-c943f4c17d09","character_id":null,"markdown":"一定光を出すCWレーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_232426ea-9759-4853-8e41-cd4872b422e5","kind":"paragraph","order":128,"section_id":"sec_5ca8449e-3800-4221-ab7e-c943f4c17d09","character_id":null,"markdown":"後段にEAMを集積したEML","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f6400a1-d7f1-474a-b7d8-d3ae9c232813","kind":"paragraph","order":129,"section_id":"sec_5ca8449e-3800-4221-ab7e-c943f4c17d09","character_id":null,"markdown":"として利用できます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a80b541d-96fa-4918-9c94-598197cd3665","kind":"heading","order":130,"section_id":"sec_0c2961a8-d25a-446a-9bb8-f91f429c01ea","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜DFBレーザーの構造と発振原理","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6bbc71fc-0484-4f0e-a296-c295ed6487e4","kind":"figure","order":131,"section_id":"sec_0c2961a8-d25a-446a-9bb8-f91f429c01ea","character_id":null,"markdown":"![DFBレーザーの構造と発振原理 01](/media/6791536eb0c3c53fae74491e0094f060a7028600e4ec47ee6164b038991f0d44-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_04c2ab78-72db-435b-8989-48ee4d855f99","kind":"figure","order":132,"section_id":"sec_0c2961a8-d25a-446a-9bb8-f91f429c01ea","character_id":null,"markdown":"![DFBレーザーの構造と発振原理 02](/media/03f0f1a155bfbcea4bb212689873188c2ca2bfe3bcaaa153ff4e3c2a45c11051-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9796e99a-89fc-4165-8a4d-584002826495","kind":"heading","order":133,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第6部　EMLとは何か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eafd7043-470c-467d-a53c-2ac0c9388bbb","kind":"paragraph","order":134,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMLはElectro-absorption Modulated Laserです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5795e552-f828-437e-aeae-aaf11ccad202","kind":"paragraph","order":135,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"一つのInPチップ上に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ba6a183a-e1f3-4eec-a9a3-475249bd993f","kind":"paragraph","order":136,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFBレーザー\n     ↓ CW光\nEAM変調器\n     ↓\n高速光信号","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_24906787-1123-4231-adc2-87642a28e59c","kind":"paragraph","order":137,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"をモノリシックに集積します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e2bfd8da-2bff-4d7d-a8e0-0e466da97d99","kind":"paragraph","order":138,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"Lumentumの200G EMLも、波長固定DFBレーザーとEAMを一つの素子に組み合わせ、200G per laneの低チャープ信号を生成する構造です。(Lumentum)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c8e57fe-d757-4b7a-815c-4124c3be4bc7","kind":"paragraph","order":139,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMLの長所","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_39159f6b-92c7-4372-8c03-6329a3842e36","kind":"paragraph","order":140,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"光源と変調器を一つのチップに集積できる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c4113535-32ae-4b98-9706-e7ab1e92242d","kind":"paragraph","order":141,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"外部光源や光分配器が不要","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_52028752-9277-4970-9734-86f30aeaa973","kind":"paragraph","order":142,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"低チャープ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ee32d71-ecac-4f89-8b20-ff87f3346b14","kind":"paragraph","order":143,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"高い消光比","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_92e72157-8231-4000-b4f5-bc0d776f33df","kind":"paragraph","order":144,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"100G・200G per laneに強い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_928d1099-09f9-4f81-b0c3-2389d2e3f314","kind":"paragraph","order":145,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"DR・FRの数百m～数kmに適する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5bc88b09-366b-49f2-a5c7-9efdbcd92801","kind":"paragraph","order":146,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"Pluggableトランシーバーを比較的単純に構成できる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a489a4ee-f392-473e-8046-eaa2c28c70d2","kind":"paragraph","order":147,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMLの難所","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b92b21b-81b9-49c1-8976-7b8c1bbbeeb9","kind":"paragraph","order":148,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB利得波長とEAM吸収端を合わせる必要がある","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd7667c7-5fce-418d-9876-7ec6259eb108","kind":"paragraph","order":149,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFBとEAMのエピ構造を同時に最適化する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d6e224b1-5fb8-4e4b-ba9d-abb39c87f099","kind":"paragraph","order":150,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"電気的分離と光学結合が必要","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7e22dd8e-cbf3-4318-bf8f-210f7672d259","kind":"paragraph","order":151,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"再成長や導波路接続のばらつきが増える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ab3396ee-2d96-4132-8bfb-1decaacf051b","kind":"paragraph","order":152,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー部とEAM部のどちらかが不良でもチップ全体が不良になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_00b010bf-0674-4f55-bdf6-b7d3735594d8","kind":"paragraph","order":153,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"端面形成後まで完全な性能が分かりにくい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_378efb6b-ae44-4dde-9b1b-3a4d4a487fe0","kind":"paragraph","order":154,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMLは完成度の高い技術ですが、1レーンごとにレーザーを必要とします。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a9417283-0d67-45ee-a3a9-8b6308cec62a","kind":"paragraph","order":155,"section_id":"sec_8e5b909a-83db-42a9-a3fd-67a764f90f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えば8×200Gの1.6Tでは、原則として8個のEMLレーンを必要とします。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_77702be7-d2e3-4edf-bcaa-f1af1d1cc969","kind":"heading","order":156,"section_id":"sec_7df22801-ae87-47f8-b5dd-0ef6698c1e76","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜EMLの構造・信号・用途・課題","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c3dab140-143d-4cea-a07d-0908aa4a2eba","kind":"figure","order":157,"section_id":"sec_7df22801-ae87-47f8-b5dd-0ef6698c1e76","character_id":null,"markdown":"![EMLの構造・信号・用途・課題 01](/media/bd97856af321b167af29490567a956f8e853509a26e02f061f96a1dfe4242e17-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_888a896a-98c5-4336-a4a0-32d9e58e3e6e","kind":"figure","order":158,"section_id":"sec_7df22801-ae87-47f8-b5dd-0ef6698c1e76","character_id":null,"markdown":"![EMLの構造・信号・用途・課題 02](/media/cc87431226f461399fc29de44f2136b2bf66e959bc6bfae2804c9138efe1be98-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5871242-d273-474b-8afc-992165244433","kind":"figure","order":159,"section_id":"sec_7df22801-ae87-47f8-b5dd-0ef6698c1e76","character_id":null,"markdown":"![EMLの構造・信号・用途・課題 03](/media/9dc43de94e8a3e8b6f67e41be6b4f772cb2d445b543a349b352f18ce19ac58ef-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8eb64b25-f3df-430f-abdd-acb0f176ac69","kind":"figure","order":160,"section_id":"sec_7df22801-ae87-47f8-b5dd-0ef6698c1e76","character_id":null,"markdown":"![EMLの構造・信号・用途・課題 04](/media/0fa011b8a65d4b662dbc1369f1246ae8934c81d655f3dbe94a704754fecfe5c7-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f28acc1f-6a41-4846-b6b7-7c03602d4093","kind":"figure","order":161,"section_id":"sec_7df22801-ae87-47f8-b5dd-0ef6698c1e76","character_id":null,"markdown":"![EMLの構造・信号・用途・課題 05](/media/224bb65aab56255412b0587f1dd9b5c0e0a9115510c8e12168c4d84b69325072-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e6698c5f-bf25-4e8f-aa76-f2578e382ca5","kind":"figure","order":162,"section_id":"sec_7df22801-ae87-47f8-b5dd-0ef6698c1e76","character_id":null,"markdown":"![EMLの構造・信号・用途・課題 06](/media/b5ee978a5458565c7cc2fc0c376bd003b34f38bbe86a17d82b82a32e1828b0a1-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f918b1c4-22b9-4ae8-b9b1-ab734cdc71de","kind":"figure","order":163,"section_id":"sec_7df22801-ae87-47f8-b5dd-0ef6698c1e76","character_id":null,"markdown":"![EMLの構造・信号・用途・課題 07](/media/9460d874dcd445e0d8846da12ca068a8c532f5d6a5be1d427a5faf1449c8e655-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4b030c0b-5a81-4324-b25c-db6826d5b860","kind":"heading","order":164,"section_id":"sec_99542124-c910-48f2-9698-6e4f771a0a51","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第7部　CW InPレーザー＋SiPh方式","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0b925ab2-20ac-45aa-96e4-c378e91c4fb3","kind":"paragraph","order":165,"section_id":"sec_99542124-c910-48f2-9698-6e4f771a0a51","character_id":null,"markdown":"この方式では、InPレーザーは一定の連続光を出し、データ変調はSiPh側で行います。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_07ddecc4-f925-4e02-8a23-11d5ad0cb57d","kind":"paragraph","order":166,"section_id":"sec_99542124-c910-48f2-9698-6e4f771a0a51","character_id":null,"markdown":"高出力CW InP DFBレーザー\n            ↓\n       SiPh光分配器\n    ┌────┼────┐\n    ↓    ↓    ↓    ↓\n Si変調 Si変調 Si変調 Si変調\n    ↓    ↓    ↓    ↓\n  光信号 光信号 光信号 光信号","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_283c2653-d284-4621-95c0-525ed45f40c8","kind":"paragraph","order":167,"section_id":"sec_99542124-c910-48f2-9698-6e4f771a0a51","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンは優れた導波路や変調器を作れますが、効率よくレーザー発振できません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bac95b56-80f2-47c9-ba10-4f639868e314","kind":"paragraph","order":168,"section_id":"sec_99542124-c910-48f2-9698-6e4f771a0a51","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf5c7e24-ea93-4336-927d-b01170a00531","kind":"paragraph","order":169,"section_id":"sec_99542124-c910-48f2-9698-6e4f771a0a51","character_id":null,"markdown":"発光：InP","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_52f7922f-d1a3-48ec-a2b5-355bf4904c4b","kind":"paragraph","order":170,"section_id":"sec_99542124-c910-48f2-9698-6e4f771a0a51","character_id":null,"markdown":"導波路・分配・変調：シリコン","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d46c1890-a7e2-4624-aa33-114b4a67d849","kind":"paragraph","order":171,"section_id":"sec_99542124-c910-48f2-9698-6e4f771a0a51","character_id":null,"markdown":"電気処理：CMOS","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8aa720bf-41e1-484c-8b1f-ba3cc20d4886","kind":"paragraph","order":172,"section_id":"sec_99542124-c910-48f2-9698-6e4f771a0a51","character_id":null,"markdown":"と役割を分けます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f97b920-c419-4993-bf99-e9f346bc4177","kind":"paragraph","order":173,"section_id":"sec_99542124-c910-48f2-9698-6e4f771a0a51","character_id":null,"markdown":"CoherentはSiPh用の400mW級CW InPレーザーを、LumentumはSiPh・CPO向けCWレーザーと1W級超高出力光源を展開しています。(Coherent Inc)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf2e6778-4162-472d-931e-0fb391a70de3","kind":"paragraph","order":174,"section_id":"sec_99542124-c910-48f2-9698-6e4f771a0a51","character_id":null,"markdown":"なぜこの方式が主流候補なのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8c3a981-8fcb-4555-a6b6-d9303a69a60f","kind":"heading","order":175,"section_id":"sec_09ff9d67-9773-4a3f-bda9-5c1fa7a7d984","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 1．少数のレーザーを複数レーンで共有できる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c9f3788-70af-4d19-8967-d7efa59b5ceb","kind":"paragraph","order":176,"section_id":"sec_09ff9d67-9773-4a3f-bda9-5c1fa7a7d984","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMLやVCSELでは、原則としてレーンごとに発光素子があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_55368985-c1a4-4527-a8e3-f299aae4a278","kind":"paragraph","order":177,"section_id":"sec_09ff9d67-9773-4a3f-bda9-5c1fa7a7d984","character_id":null,"markdown":"SiPhでは一つの高出力レーザーを複数の変調器へ分配できます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b7f375db-8986-4b7f-b0b7-6a1ca2f93e2a","kind":"heading","order":178,"section_id":"sec_a32688c1-4be2-4520-8ce6-8d5b1acd8d28","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 2．高いレーン速度に向く","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_794bde32-138a-4bf7-bad5-5da85c284edf","kind":"paragraph","order":179,"section_id":"sec_a32688c1-4be2-4520-8ce6-8d5b1acd8d28","character_id":null,"markdown":"発光と変調を分離できるため、レーザーを安定したCW状態で動かし、変調器だけを200G・400G per laneへ高速化できます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d6c6390f-eb7e-4e9a-8cb0-22883ce66a17","kind":"heading","order":180,"section_id":"sec_040f0a53-629a-4e6e-9402-24916276f1aa","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 3．WDMを集積できる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f23e64b-44ff-417b-a869-c7480bffcac0","kind":"paragraph","order":181,"section_id":"sec_040f0a53-629a-4e6e-9402-24916276f1aa","character_id":null,"markdown":"SiPh上にMUX／DEMUXを作り、複数波長を一本のシングルモードファイバーへまとめられます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_02be3a69-cba7-4ffc-b255-1d5e0b9130d0","kind":"paragraph","order":182,"section_id":"sec_040f0a53-629a-4e6e-9402-24916276f1aa","character_id":null,"markdown":"λ1：200G\nλ2：200G\nλ3：200G\nλ4：200G\n     ↓\nSMF 1本で800G","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ef6309f-be7c-413a-81a7-06ffd9ea1076","kind":"heading","order":183,"section_id":"sec_b83497f5-bf2d-462d-ac27-cd640a932232","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 4．ファイバー本数を減らせる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aaed3edb-1fc4-4db0-8b5c-99f6ed4c07ea","kind":"paragraph","order":184,"section_id":"sec_b83497f5-bf2d-462d-ac27-cd640a932232","character_id":null,"markdown":"VCSELのWide-and-Slow方式では、多数の低速レーンと多数のファイバーが必要です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ad8f426-6ec0-468d-b506-03bbd600488d","kind":"paragraph","order":185,"section_id":"sec_b83497f5-bf2d-462d-ac27-cd640a932232","character_id":null,"markdown":"CW InP＋SiPhなら、高速化とWDMによって、Tbps当たりのファイバー本数を抑えやすくなります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_966ed7c1-49ea-4966-b16e-7e4344bc1069","kind":"heading","order":186,"section_id":"sec_de330719-ce07-4f2d-996a-470ffb4c43e6","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 5．SMFで距離を伸ばしやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6a5072ae-d79e-413b-87d2-0a666ba6f92b","kind":"paragraph","order":187,"section_id":"sec_de330719-ce07-4f2d-996a-470ffb4c43e6","character_id":null,"markdown":"1310nm帯のCW InP＋SiPhは、シングルモードファイバーと組み合わせやすく、ラック内だけでなく、ラック間、列間、キャンパス内へ拡張できます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b82c80d3-6f7c-4956-86a8-d518cf100a17","kind":"heading","order":188,"section_id":"sec_198d23ea-2d50-4d2b-ae60-9b390d6f34ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 6．レーザーをASICの熱から離せる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a23438ee-ba30-4ebc-b644-db1c15c47533","kind":"paragraph","order":189,"section_id":"sec_198d23ea-2d50-4d2b-ae60-9b390d6f34ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"外部ELSFPを使えば、レーザーを高温のASICパッケージから外し、交換可能な低温領域へ配置できます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43b2866d-e58f-45ed-91cd-65d298a5070a","kind":"heading","order":190,"section_id":"sec_1c07d31f-0838-446d-87ef-5123c69e36e6","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 7．量産エコシステムが既に形成されている","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ae3d87f9-f6d4-494b-a2d2-6ad8158bde8c","kind":"paragraph","order":191,"section_id":"sec_1c07d31f-0838-446d-87ef-5123c69e36e6","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMCはCOUPEをCPOへ統合するロードマップを進め、2026年にパッケージ内CPOの生産開始を予定しています。STMicroelectronicsも200G per lane対応のPIC100を300mmラインで量産化し、2027年までに能力を4倍へ拡大する計画です。(pr.tsmc.com)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_74b90988-f4fe-4f16-85a4-45ac412a3fde","kind":"paragraph","order":192,"section_id":"sec_1c07d31f-0838-446d-87ef-5123c69e36e6","character_id":null,"markdown":"LightCountingは、SiPh変調器を使うデータセンター向けPluggableの比率が、2025年の43％から2030年には76％へ上昇すると予測しています。(ST News)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_507fd201-1f04-4d32-a7a5-afa36eae573e","kind":"heading","order":193,"section_id":"sec_6090f5eb-e816-4a9f-bfdc-58dbf248ed54","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜CW InP＋SiPhの役割分担と実装","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0bfc6c8e-35f6-49df-8c2d-92e10e16416d","kind":"figure","order":194,"section_id":"sec_6090f5eb-e816-4a9f-bfdc-58dbf248ed54","character_id":null,"markdown":"![CW InP＋SiPhの役割分担と実装 01](/media/d5631afed4d9026604f1c0c4c4e698f252a9b7ffe7ffa0784bd534e72c802d6c-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_663c7be8-7cf6-42c4-8a08-57c007a42c7a","kind":"figure","order":195,"section_id":"sec_6090f5eb-e816-4a9f-bfdc-58dbf248ed54","character_id":null,"markdown":"![CW InP＋SiPhの役割分担と実装 02](/media/0884f97c0e8d93e05b19423484b79b95298166f632f4f0c7f3b912d2d621b753-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e6af03d2-f6eb-48c2-bd6a-bc325cff9c0a","kind":"figure","order":196,"section_id":"sec_6090f5eb-e816-4a9f-bfdc-58dbf248ed54","character_id":null,"markdown":"![CW InP＋SiPhの役割分担と実装 03](/media/fe09149c85fa5ea2c93ea794e6df595a9a68a1fecbe0e0a3e4f61cd83d591ac9-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a446e270-8aa6-4287-83a6-ca91027fd52f","kind":"figure","order":197,"section_id":"sec_6090f5eb-e816-4a9f-bfdc-58dbf248ed54","character_id":null,"markdown":"![CW InP＋SiPhの役割分担と実装 04](/media/57d019e756609603d53000a37282061e69fbde03067d499c6903e3ebf975a669-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd3aaf29-a5f8-4771-ba98-c8ff3ba96353","kind":"figure","order":198,"section_id":"sec_6090f5eb-e816-4a9f-bfdc-58dbf248ed54","character_id":null,"markdown":"![CW InP＋SiPhの役割分担と実装 05](/media/7dc1c34ab620f0e241b0ea2a3345ef83a5c91eead05d49e2f3063c78c9a41fb0-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_057e2b3d-c878-4f66-a9d1-52048ba1cd6e","kind":"heading","order":199,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第8部　VCSELとは何か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_30a32f49-28f5-4889-b94f-ca844908b881","kind":"paragraph","order":200,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"VCSELはVertical-Cavity Surface-Emitting Laserです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a09de07b-7532-45a1-9a23-eaf66746dc78","kind":"paragraph","order":201,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"端面ではなく、ウェハー表面に対して垂直に光を出します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_124b5f72-f0b9-4412-a097-a113a94bfb2a","kind":"paragraph","order":202,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"光\n             ↑\n       上部DBRミラー\n       酸化アパーチャ\n       MQW活性層\n       下部DBRミラー\n          GaAs基板","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd3e2a7e-8c07-469f-8dd4-dce454d7d779","kind":"paragraph","order":203,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"VCSELの特徴","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9c4208f0-a30a-4ece-8a86-1ecd0ee3a83e","kind":"paragraph","order":204,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"主にGaAs系","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5eff07d-cd61-4f40-8d1e-1e1d9e347362","kind":"paragraph","order":205,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"850nmや1060nmなど","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_10317eb3-a60a-43d0-bed4-46e0ca5e7a87","kind":"paragraph","order":206,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"直接変調","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_61e997c8-56ff-4f73-91a0-0ac7778b8d99","kind":"paragraph","order":207,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"マルチモードファイバー向け","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7716bf89-36ff-473f-87d3-e338ed2b62ef","kind":"paragraph","order":208,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"二次元アレイ化しやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aa7dec85-88e0-478f-9a5f-9a05b25924d8","kind":"paragraph","order":209,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"ウェハー状態で光学試験できる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_86c53589-f521-4aae-8124-65c39daab3d0","kind":"paragraph","order":210,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"短距離・多数並列に向く","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ed5c2f33-6521-4278-aba3-627ebfc5fd86","kind":"paragraph","order":211,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"CoherentはAI scale-up向けに2次元VCSEL・PDアレイを開発し、Wide-and-Slow方式を提案しています。(Coherent Inc)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7a00a2ac-5331-4ce2-a91a-6e15157b440b","kind":"paragraph","order":212,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"Wide-and-Slowとは何か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d82590f-ab06-4f31-963a-f8b2504cd23d","kind":"paragraph","order":213,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"一つのレーンを200G・400Gへ高速化する代わりに、50Gや100G程度のレーンを多数並べます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_231caf0d-9116-42e2-98dd-a59aa8d8a3da","kind":"paragraph","order":214,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"50G × 32レーン\n＝1.6T","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a4b68dcf-3769-4930-86f2-dbd0bc32e999","kind":"paragraph","order":215,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"VCSELの長所","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff057cb5-adc0-45ef-99bb-cb93d4259ce4","kind":"paragraph","order":216,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"外部CWレーザー不要","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5546b198-30fd-407a-8ab8-0c4e47423839","kind":"paragraph","order":217,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"Si変調器不要","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e1040c59-ec29-4c95-9ec0-a72fb1d97965","kind":"paragraph","order":218,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"DSPレス化しやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_67a2556e-19cf-4219-b118-67cf125c815c","kind":"paragraph","order":219,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"低遅延","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cce0655f-3327-48b0-b7d2-481591c5f7b5","kind":"paragraph","order":220,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"チャネルごとに独立","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_99625047-1d11-4b5e-a83c-955036b9ffd4","kind":"paragraph","order":221,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"予備レーンを用意しやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_763e66bf-7555-4c89-bbb5-106d87ed55ea","kind":"paragraph","order":222,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"故障を局所化しやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af595889-412d-45fc-b662-d26c668e2eaa","kind":"paragraph","order":223,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"ウェハーレベル選別が可能","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_24712af2-7a59-453c-b049-828975fe1d17","kind":"paragraph","order":224,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"VCSELの弱点","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15e9817e-28fd-4b2b-8806-2d9afd4b0ee7","kind":"paragraph","order":225,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー数とファイバー数が増えやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_42c5529a-8a6b-4d55-9fbd-d36122bced32","kind":"paragraph","order":226,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"MMFのモード分散","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f17905d9-2782-4baf-8b77-bc25a71c596b","kind":"paragraph","order":227,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"長距離化しにくい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d3362c6d-a3cb-4701-97f0-de69a612722a","kind":"paragraph","order":228,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"WDMへの適性がSiPhより低い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c52867a9-4021-4448-b63e-9c05bb6be673","kind":"paragraph","order":229,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"配線容積とコネクター密度が増える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c94ebf8-bfde-4f52-a14a-def4c79a3c03","kind":"paragraph","order":230,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"多横モード、熱、電流密度の管理が必要","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8ba39cd-ef03-445c-a48c-d42486b40bcb","kind":"paragraph","order":231,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e6f0ab8-1d33-433e-945d-51a438073d07","kind":"paragraph","order":232,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"超短距離・多数並列\n→ VCSEL","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cbe4e127-a258-4bb7-839e-93a939e17c28","kind":"paragraph","order":233,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"ラック間・少ないファイバー・WDM\n→ CW InP＋SiPh","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fffd54ad-f1bb-4d72-8e68-1b6107b3e5ac","kind":"paragraph","order":234,"section_id":"sec_e9f2ce12-0e86-421b-a687-86485b2c5116","character_id":null,"markdown":"という分化が有力です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd2db5ff-19cf-4566-9a13-35ece475f41d","kind":"heading","order":235,"section_id":"sec_0f8f560b-52cc-4027-8705-f48af8a46d6e","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜VCSELの構造・強み・弱み","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9fcb8010-7810-49e1-ae76-6536388b5dd5","kind":"figure","order":236,"section_id":"sec_0f8f560b-52cc-4027-8705-f48af8a46d6e","character_id":null,"markdown":"![VCSELの構造・強み・弱み 01](/media/52e6dbb15ae68f0a458c7823ccca6c526d124e67c734edd23b619b58f3a4a729-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_80690b75-343d-436a-a399-cdaa06d9207a","kind":"figure","order":237,"section_id":"sec_0f8f560b-52cc-4027-8705-f48af8a46d6e","character_id":null,"markdown":"![VCSELの構造・強み・弱み 02](/media/78b100d3ce11f8e3c5d97b1fad778e58cf2218e478b5d24debe873b3d53f1f3e-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8fe6718-f943-4ce1-8217-4969d107aa77","kind":"heading","order":238,"section_id":"sec_22e893cc-b05e-4e74-a4e2-3515ac46a770","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第9部　各方式の比較","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ffd3104-0600-43f4-b8d1-d8b34f1db368","kind":"table","order":239,"section_id":"sec_22e893cc-b05e-4e74-a4e2-3515ac46a770","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 項目 | FRO Pluggable | LPO | CW InP＋SiPh CPO | VCSEL NPO/CPO | EML Pluggable |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| モジュールDSP | あり | 原則なし | 原則なし／構成次第 | 原則なし | FROではあり |\n| 光源 | 内蔵 | 内蔵 | 外部CW InP | VCSEL自身 | DFB部 |\n| 変調 | モジュール内 | 直接・SiPh等 | Si変調器 | 直接変調 | EAM |\n| ファイバー | SMF中心 | SMF中心 | SMF・WDM | MMF中心 | SMF |\n| 交換性 | 高い | 高い | 低～中 | 中 | 高い |\n| レーン速度 | 高い | 高いが難しい | 200G～400G向け | 低～中速多数 | 100G～400G候補 |\n| 得意距離 | 短～中距離 | 短距離中心 | 短～長距離 | 超短～短距離 | 数百m～数km |\n| 製造難度 | 中 | 中～高 | 非常に高い | 中～高 | 高い |\n| 消費電力 | 高い | 低い | 最低を狙える | 非常に低い | 中程度 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5efc47eb-e3df-4fd9-93f8-34be58cae946","kind":"heading","order":240,"section_id":"sec_98ab8b45-1a53-4401-a242-730f849ce066","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜光源・配置方式の比較","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2026339d-9c64-4909-a63a-09d4e97fce92","kind":"figure","order":241,"section_id":"sec_98ab8b45-1a53-4401-a242-730f849ce066","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光源・配置方式の比較 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InPレーザー＋SiPh方式のテストが難しい理由","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_643eb183-0d64-45b4-9798-fb7f8b574389","kind":"paragraph","order":245,"section_id":"sec_2ce06db3-7ef9-4aad-9c9d-d30a2dbd8b51","character_id":null,"markdown":"CW InP＋SiPhでは、単一チップを検査すれば終わるわけではありません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_194f95b1-09f8-41a2-9cfd-58e6b8020bc6","kind":"paragraph","order":246,"section_id":"sec_2ce06db3-7ef9-4aad-9c9d-d30a2dbd8b51","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPレーザーダイ\n＋\nSiPh PIC\n＋\nドライバーIC\n＋\nTIA\n＋\nフォトダイオード\n＋\nファイバー結合\n＋\n外部光源管理","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5312ce15-65c2-4d29-9729-c8a6eb8ac5f7","kind":"paragraph","order":247,"section_id":"sec_2ce06db3-7ef9-4aad-9c9d-d30a2dbd8b51","character_id":null,"markdown":"を、一つのシステムとして保証する必要があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_150d55a6-b777-4168-a047-6bf8a4b4f7e8","kind":"heading","order":248,"section_id":"sec_c7d2954f-02f5-4ccd-b60a-1e60635bee5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 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2．SiPhウェハーの検査","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd2ec2b7-157e-416d-9273-74cf5768a78f","kind":"paragraph","order":265,"section_id":"sec_85ed60cb-5534-481c-b772-7219457cab14","character_id":null,"markdown":"SiPh側では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c2ffbaf0-9f97-4556-9ede-90abf211f5df","kind":"paragraph","order":266,"section_id":"sec_85ed60cb-5534-481c-b772-7219457cab14","character_id":null,"markdown":"導波路損失","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cdfd6a31-39a1-42b9-8bd3-00c90421fef8","kind":"paragraph","order":267,"section_id":"sec_85ed60cb-5534-481c-b772-7219457cab14","character_id":null,"markdown":"MZM／リング変調器のVπ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d6babd8a-afda-4363-8e57-44170e362f11","kind":"paragraph","order":268,"section_id":"sec_85ed60cb-5534-481c-b772-7219457cab14","character_id":null,"markdown":"消光比","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d0098503-6ce6-4bdc-8cb4-61867d3f127d","kind":"paragraph","order":269,"section_id":"sec_85ed60cb-5534-481c-b772-7219457cab14","character_id":null,"markdown":"波長特性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_06b0dcb1-00b8-45a8-bcf3-78f6de2b01a3","kind":"paragraph","order":270,"section_id":"sec_85ed60cb-5534-481c-b772-7219457cab14","character_id":null,"markdown":"MUX／DEMUXの挿入損失","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9eb4ef3c-0bdd-4f76-af0a-5112880c637a","kind":"paragraph","order":271,"section_id":"sec_85ed60cb-5534-481c-b772-7219457cab14","character_id":null,"markdown":"フォトダイオード感度","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84abd9f5-5603-4994-8dc7-5380def4cced","kind":"paragraph","order":272,"section_id":"sec_85ed60cb-5534-481c-b772-7219457cab14","character_id":null,"markdown":"クロストーク","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a386507f-adcd-4cd4-ab06-6200b4dd8ef7","kind":"paragraph","order":273,"section_id":"sec_85ed60cb-5534-481c-b772-7219457cab14","character_id":null,"markdown":"グレーティング／エッジカプラー損失","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4518040e-08c1-49f2-b825-722a9ee6e14c","kind":"paragraph","order":274,"section_id":"sec_85ed60cb-5534-481c-b772-7219457cab14","character_id":null,"markdown":"を評価します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_74b7e080-4ad3-4879-9995-296daf59ca70","kind":"heading","order":275,"section_id":"sec_23151aa4-f72a-4644-93a6-0db6d156fb6f","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜SiPhウェハー試験","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b45f27e-8183-43ce-b6af-8d21ad4681d9","kind":"figure","order":276,"section_id":"sec_23151aa4-f72a-4644-93a6-0db6d156fb6f","character_id":null,"markdown":"![SiPhウェハー試験 01](/media/c0f24b1137057ba9e56ad61d16c40ec14c7ed1b0fe53364437af453373017cf3-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3209d144-211a-41c3-912c-277332381edf","kind":"heading","order":277,"section_id":"sec_08d6ae74-7449-41c0-896a-27a91666e333","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 3．実装後に再び検査が必要","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_86b05351-965b-4416-a7ba-a8f80cdf094b","kind":"paragraph","order":278,"section_id":"sec_08d6ae74-7449-41c0-896a-27a91666e333","character_id":null,"markdown":"個別に良品だったレーザーとPICでも、接合後に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_99228e4d-2714-44fd-b095-3e69406ddaf0","kind":"paragraph","order":279,"section_id":"sec_08d6ae74-7449-41c0-896a-27a91666e333","character_id":null,"markdown":"光軸ずれ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a6327850-0097-46fd-b4bb-ca2437ceed40","kind":"paragraph","order":280,"section_id":"sec_08d6ae74-7449-41c0-896a-27a91666e333","character_id":null,"markdown":"はんだ・接着応力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e81881eb-1b82-4097-9c36-7d8d085103e3","kind":"paragraph","order":281,"section_id":"sec_08d6ae74-7449-41c0-896a-27a91666e333","character_id":null,"markdown":"温度変化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ea32aea-343e-42d5-b427-c7948544c5de","kind":"paragraph","order":282,"section_id":"sec_08d6ae74-7449-41c0-896a-27a91666e333","character_id":null,"markdown":"結合損失","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ccc0586e-9001-4153-968a-956acef0868e","kind":"paragraph","order":283,"section_id":"sec_08d6ae74-7449-41c0-896a-27a91666e333","character_id":null,"markdown":"偏波ずれ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d431ca30-942f-4466-a86a-049ce42be2c9","kind":"paragraph","order":284,"section_id":"sec_08d6ae74-7449-41c0-896a-27a91666e333","character_id":null,"markdown":"反射","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1a175c71-22d7-4357-b059-059126517b39","kind":"paragraph","order":285,"section_id":"sec_08d6ae74-7449-41c0-896a-27a91666e333","character_id":null,"markdown":"ワイヤーやバンプの寄生","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_97d20c95-fa2a-487a-b94d-fed3423044a0","kind":"paragraph","order":286,"section_id":"sec_08d6ae74-7449-41c0-896a-27a91666e333","character_id":null,"markdown":"熱干渉","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f3ee021-bf62-434a-ab96-8927f1a74577","kind":"paragraph","order":287,"section_id":"sec_08d6ae74-7449-41c0-896a-27a91666e333","character_id":null,"markdown":"が発生します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_03f63db7-a84f-47fb-b5c9-acd8ca2cc148","kind":"heading","order":288,"section_id":"sec_f479b21d-f486-42b3-804b-fa9cb15bb118","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜実装後に現れる結合問題","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e3778fa7-8589-4093-8ffc-41a8dbad6d99","kind":"figure","order":289,"section_id":"sec_f479b21d-f486-42b3-804b-fa9cb15bb118","character_id":null,"markdown":"![実装後に現れる結合問題 01](/media/59a2044df2aff64deaa1a14a9c4daa0a6da636815b1dd07326ebb4eda3bdd759-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_60417dc2-3706-4c65-a17f-1a5bd9844937","kind":"heading","order":290,"section_id":"sec_8db0df27-28a9-43c8-ad7f-91c016b3a718","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 4．ファイバー接続が最終歩留まりを決める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf31493a-5f11-4c86-b671-92361642f8d6","kind":"paragraph","order":291,"section_id":"sec_8db0df27-28a9-43c8-ad7f-91c016b3a718","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPOでは数十本以上のファイバーを狭い領域へ接続します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0a033076-5963-4a68-9039-d68e590fe578","kind":"paragraph","order":292,"section_id":"sec_8db0df27-28a9-43c8-ad7f-91c016b3a718","character_id":null,"markdown":"住友電工もCPOでは、限られた空間にSiPhチップと多数のシングルモードファイバーを接続する必要があると説明しています。(Sumitomo Electric)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ca8e0403-d8ec-4d40-8a69-b8476cc703fa","kind":"paragraph","order":293,"section_id":"sec_8db0df27-28a9-43c8-ad7f-91c016b3a718","character_id":null,"markdown":"数µm以下のずれが、多数チャネルで同時に発生しないよう管理しなければなりません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2daeede1-734f-47bd-b3c1-3987e8f65bf8","kind":"heading","order":294,"section_id":"sec_7db79336-6760-4ec7-857a-852413284605","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 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Y_{\\mathrm{fiber}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_332c0964-ff46-49d4-85d1-b26fae743bd1","kind":"paragraph","order":297,"section_id":"sec_7db79336-6760-4ec7-857a-852413284605","character_id":null,"markdown":"です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af767ae0-75dc-44da-95fe-328eae251fbe","kind":"paragraph","order":298,"section_id":"sec_7db79336-6760-4ec7-857a-852413284605","character_id":null,"markdown":"各工程が95％でも、五工程を掛けると全体は約77％になります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_03a33e71-2f02-448d-aae6-16705ed88d68","kind":"paragraph","order":299,"section_id":"sec_7db79336-6760-4ec7-857a-852413284605","character_id":null,"markdown":"高価なスイッチASICと多数の光エンジンを同じパッケージへ載せるほど、Known Good Dieと途中検査が重要になります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_52cc9813-34cf-4dd1-87d8-dce070fab50b","kind":"heading","order":300,"section_id":"sec_e596ce1a-fe10-4ed0-a95e-4dec68c3a5fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜CW InP＋SiPhの多段階テスト","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2a970487-baac-4472-9c87-aded435ff97a","kind":"figure","order":301,"section_id":"sec_e596ce1a-fe10-4ed0-a95e-4dec68c3a5fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"![CW InP＋SiPhの多段階テスト 01](/media/6c943502e69aaf7ee3a06c6d161eb2b992373a192603d1de8b092e04d638398d-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12210e8f-14a2-4ade-871c-c909a25ccf5d","kind":"heading","order":302,"section_id":"sec_56ad3547-e50f-419b-a840-29a77e9e9100","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜CPO全体歩留まり","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33ecdaa7-93c1-4cac-a04c-ba1f630723d3","kind":"figure","order":303,"section_id":"sec_56ad3547-e50f-419b-a840-29a77e9e9100","character_id":null,"markdown":"![CPO全体歩留まり 01](/media/70f586cc1a251b246dea086a2961b6c8706324f61a184b5713d14866e8a74e54-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_987d28f7-7115-4eb7-835d-286f2d210759","kind":"heading","order":304,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第11部　なぜ端面発光レーザーは劈開後まで完全にテストしにくいのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f91f800-22c0-4a92-8abf-d53f02a1d082","kind":"paragraph","order":305,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB、DML、EML、CW InPレーザーは端面発光型です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_45cc1f2a-602b-449d-9413-8e21828419ea","kind":"paragraph","order":306,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"光はウェハー面と平行に進みます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d32db99c-6a0d-48c0-a2c0-4292a2a85661","kind":"paragraph","order":307,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"ウェハー状態","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f3c6789-d88b-4955-936a-26fd003c67e9","kind":"paragraph","order":308,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB導波路 →→→→→ 半導体が続く","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_61e8ae60-dce7-4357-87ec-1bf5ff84ed99","kind":"paragraph","order":309,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"この状態では、正常なレーザー端面がありません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cdcbf366-70f8-4823-a4c9-339ef6b3934a","kind":"paragraph","order":310,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"ウェハーをバーへ劈開して、導波路を横切る端面を作る必要があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8581549c-c467-4dba-bdd9-3e2a9a43a3c8","kind":"paragraph","order":311,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"劈開後","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5bafa896-ce02-47ac-a947-de9686c57471","kind":"paragraph","order":312,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB導波路 →→→→│ → 光\n                ↑\n              端面","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_35653066-9506-4015-924c-1a1b35140eb7","kind":"paragraph","order":313,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"端面発光レーザーは、設計どおりの電気光学性能を得るために劈開・端面処理を必要とし、VCSELのような通常のウェハーレベル全数発振試験が難しいことが長年の課題です。(Google Patents)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_479efd52-adbb-4e49-aac3-0fde79dd465b","kind":"paragraph","order":314,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"劈開前にも測れるもの","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0df77af8-9e1b-4838-aa56-d411772ba231","kind":"paragraph","order":315,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"端面形成前でも、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_352f3891-1def-4c84-a7bd-35fc81e91ad9","kind":"paragraph","order":316,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"HRXRD","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_638f8913-aa6a-44f7-9948-1f257f6430c2","kind":"paragraph","order":317,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"PLマッピング","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af7ae79d-a03b-4695-964d-b33297afbde3","kind":"paragraph","order":318,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"膜厚・組成","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_429cddae-7226-448b-bdc7-d8f5dc55decd","kind":"paragraph","order":319,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"表面粗さ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_54b49542-b59e-44f1-b40f-3a32af2d6e59","kind":"paragraph","order":320,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"格子周期","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f6a36567-2f2e-4af6-8541-1a973a18950d","kind":"paragraph","order":321,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"リーク電流","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_623c295e-a356-4b85-9796-24ca9750d8c1","kind":"paragraph","order":322,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"接触抵抗","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e1a60c1-3a4b-4d13-908b-9874d572b67e","kind":"paragraph","order":323,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"導通","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bf8efb0e-62e6-49b2-b5a9-7f1ff927fd12","kind":"paragraph","order":324,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"は測れます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3195c662-fb85-4b94-bf2f-765e6c06aed0","kind":"paragraph","order":325,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、これらは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d85dd7cf-913c-4121-8e4c-afa507a1d21b","kind":"paragraph","order":326,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"材料や構造が設計に近いか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d7d6a60-68dc-49f2-906e-1a3d181b64d2","kind":"paragraph","order":327,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"を確認する測定であり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66d618f8-191b-4334-8182-cf64ad8dcf52","kind":"paragraph","order":328,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"完成レーザーとして良品か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0bf95916-8d2e-4349-a6d2-9fb2181b1c90","kind":"paragraph","order":329,"section_id":"sec_7d584830-0c31-406a-834b-c5793f00ff21","character_id":null,"markdown":"を完全には保証しません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_44e19972-554b-4e1b-aa51-1dd479a1d1c4","kind":"heading","order":330,"section_id":"sec_093a3bd4-5238-4ee4-baef-196215249efe","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜端面発光レーザーと劈開","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a9dda8f8-4976-4e2b-954a-7f9319e00def","kind":"figure","order":331,"section_id":"sec_093a3bd4-5238-4ee4-baef-196215249efe","character_id":null,"markdown":"![端面発光レーザーと劈開 01](/media/14dbab392d0163ef0e9a88c57cb595673b875fea5cb8a97954d8dca3f3652715-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71d6f85f-7f78-4ac4-9642-9f86b781db80","kind":"figure","order":332,"section_id":"sec_093a3bd4-5238-4ee4-baef-196215249efe","character_id":null,"markdown":"![端面発光レーザーと劈開 02](/media/2d416b8b3e1a025e82e087a230c18d70004bb9ec21bfb15d50fe919e6f9f082f-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_185a75f6-06cf-4a32-af4e-dfb9a5399132","kind":"heading","order":333,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第12部　劈開後の検査がコスト上深刻な理由","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_20445c84-2489-414b-a77a-6980d0db85ff","kind":"paragraph","order":334,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"端面発光レーザーの典型工程は次のようになります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0fd1e409-6398-4115-8c66-a45d3b34f6be","kind":"paragraph","order":335,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP基板\n ↓\nMOCVDエピ成長\n ↓\nMQW・SCH・クラッド\n ↓\nDFB格子形成\n ↓\n再成長\n ↓\nBH／リッジ形成\n ↓\n絶縁膜・電極\n ↓\n裏面研磨・裏面電極\n ↓\nバー劈開\n ↓\nようやく本格的L-I-V・スペクトル試験\n ↓\nAR／HR端面コーティング\n ↓\n再試験\n ↓\nダイ分離\n ↓\n実装\n ↓\nバーンイン","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c7be8b94-5ab0-4e55-b35a-64092c896e2b","kind":"paragraph","order":336,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"最大の問題は、不良発見が遅いこと","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d141615-2c59-41ec-92a5-b9277ea2c811","kind":"paragraph","order":337,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"エピや格子に潜在不良があっても、本格的なレーザー試験までに、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c8d57cc-c9b6-4054-8f4a-8a8b7fead04b","kind":"paragraph","order":338,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"高価なInP基板","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cdfb0785-7bab-4aff-94d5-76ac09fae937","kind":"paragraph","order":339,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"長時間のMOCVD","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_58bfff46-0c6f-44d2-8b32-50116eed2674","kind":"paragraph","order":340,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"微細格子加工","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_92a08884-9948-4711-8470-dd9c5fac0198","kind":"paragraph","order":341,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"再成長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0acc31b5-cf15-42ad-b1f4-e22a1a8b5e04","kind":"paragraph","order":342,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"リソグラフィー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7e84b323-a539-4eda-a955-9cb676fae177","kind":"paragraph","order":343,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"電極形成","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6a8301a9-c724-4e1f-b8de-a562b866d148","kind":"paragraph","order":344,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"ウェハー薄化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b5ad7f70-027b-491e-ac17-f61c3ffcabac","kind":"paragraph","order":345,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"劈開","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3fa4ac84-44cf-4837-b8e3-9b4e460e839f","kind":"paragraph","order":346,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"という付加価値を載せています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_728ab300-3842-4247-ba5e-bd7fc32f9a07","kind":"paragraph","order":347,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"最後に不良と分かれば、それまでの加工費がすべて失われます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_adeae962-8994-4c34-bc74-e2ca58b52680","kind":"paragraph","order":348,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"端面形成そのものが新しい不良要因になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6294cb95-fba1-4ae6-8647-0d7389d6a207","kind":"paragraph","order":349,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"劈開によって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f7bb28f-5ee9-42a5-9291-e96017878905","kind":"paragraph","order":350,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"チッピング","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c9b4224-0275-4152-a084-956240cdf71c","kind":"paragraph","order":351,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"クラック","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1a944872-d9aa-40be-a294-4f80bf3c6c52","kind":"paragraph","order":352,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"段差","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_571ae3bf-50f0-4304-8de7-71979ce5ec51","kind":"paragraph","order":353,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"傾き","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_891d9243-01f5-4974-9f17-407b2ccc653d","kind":"paragraph","order":354,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"汚染","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_98f490f3-f027-4f56-afb9-fd215b75098d","kind":"paragraph","order":355,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"表面酸化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c7d5480e-5582-4a21-92fd-bead53f29930","kind":"paragraph","order":356,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"共振器長のずれ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a8149201-5dab-457b-a581-2c254ed0c4ac","kind":"paragraph","order":357,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"が発生します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_45ff967d-e9b1-4459-aceb-f044dadc4bfe","kind":"paragraph","order":358,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらに端面にはAR／HR膜を形成します。端面コーティングは、個別ダイへ分ける前のレーザーバーを治具に並べて成膜するのが一般的です。(Comptek Solutions)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1a95f8e9-44b3-4bb3-b12a-b3e109d15cf9","kind":"paragraph","order":359,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"高出力CWでは端面信頼性が厳しい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bae90646-5ee6-4ed3-83e1-b356fba85d12","kind":"paragraph","order":360,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"端面に光吸収や微小欠陥があると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c83c9392-f9fe-42fb-9d8d-36f5364c8c46","kind":"paragraph","order":361,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"端面で光吸収\n   ↓\n局所発熱\n   ↓\n吸収増加\n   ↓\nさらなる発熱\n   ↓\n端面劣化・光学破壊","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2721d392-a1be-47e1-8565-d1c7ba9f568b","kind":"paragraph","order":362,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"という正帰還が起こり得ます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a4ce6d92-3a83-46d4-a718-d7fcfda33b51","kind":"paragraph","order":363,"section_id":"sec_b8e59f9f-6e72-4e32-984d-d5d958ddc6cf","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため高出力CWレーザーでは、単に発振すれば良いのではなく、長時間バーンイン、温度サイクル、高出力動作、戻り光条件を含めた信頼性確認が必要です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff6a3edf-bc24-4647-be58-434a5a876e38","kind":"heading","order":364,"section_id":"sec_d8c62d7f-315f-4926-a1ae-8742590fc338","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜劈開後試験・端面膜・バーンイン","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_08e3326f-e547-46bd-a608-7ed0682ed0e9","kind":"figure","order":365,"section_id":"sec_d8c62d7f-315f-4926-a1ae-8742590fc338","character_id":null,"markdown":"![劈開後試験・端面膜・バーンイン 01](/media/9acc69e8f38bfd2227233466906f51f9eb981fb332b202a9a2c07b0e348f8400-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ffe10c3-6c10-485f-9f8c-e236915973db","kind":"figure","order":366,"section_id":"sec_d8c62d7f-315f-4926-a1ae-8742590fc338","character_id":null,"markdown":"![劈開後試験・端面膜・バーンイン 02](/media/e2c375bc9c00038b8007e28130102384d5d208896e525b18ff295e9ed2860ca6-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_360d6456-96db-4091-b08a-d16f5f236f0b","kind":"figure","order":367,"section_id":"sec_d8c62d7f-315f-4926-a1ae-8742590fc338","character_id":null,"markdown":"![劈開後試験・端面膜・バーンイン 03](/media/110c8e0f6ddaa67c0eac10cd9e8cf93184e23c3367b31486b16e8f6ec9aaf481-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88d424f7-a2e9-4edd-91ac-c99819a4f212","kind":"heading","order":368,"section_id":"sec_4243aaac-841a-462a-bfeb-88bc3d15ddd6","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第13部　世界の光トランシーバー市場","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e91fd51f-9dad-419d-8aeb-28dac58bbe56","kind":"paragraph","order":369,"section_id":"sec_4243aaac-841a-462a-bfeb-88bc3d15ddd6","character_id":null,"markdown":"LightCountingによると、2025年の光トランシーバーおよび関連製品売上は約238億ドルで、前年比55％増でした。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_60b2011b-4ac8-4adc-bc7b-a22918dd639e","kind":"paragraph","order":370,"section_id":"sec_4243aaac-841a-462a-bfeb-88bc3d15ddd6","character_id":null,"markdown":"内訳の公表値から計算すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8a5f8da-516a-4ab4-90e1-f118b85cada3","kind":"table","order":371,"section_id":"sec_4243aaac-841a-462a-bfeb-88bc3d15ddd6","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 分野 | 2025年売上 | 全体に占める比率 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Ethernet光トランシーバー | 約180億ドル | 約75.6％ |\n| AOC | 11億ドル超 | 約4.6％ |\n| DWDM・FTTx・無線フロントホール等 | 約47億ドル | 約19.8％ |\n| **合計** | **238億ドル** | **100％** |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7eda5062-bd83-45f3-b220-a2cae4876838","kind":"paragraph","order":372,"section_id":"sec_4243aaac-841a-462a-bfeb-88bc3d15ddd6","character_id":null,"markdown":"となります。(LightCounting)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4a438733-564e-47b5-af24-532949422466","kind":"paragraph","order":373,"section_id":"sec_4243aaac-841a-462a-bfeb-88bc3d15ddd6","character_id":null,"markdown":"データセンター向けPluggable市場だけでは、2025年に155億ドル、2030年に340億ドル超が予測されています。CPOは2030年に90億ドル超の市場になる予測です。(ST News)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_97f0f3c0-1ce5-45b4-8474-ac19454b1e69","kind":"heading","order":374,"section_id":"sec_aad29f6c-119a-4c20-ae98-ca43a3166df4","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜市場規模とデータセンター需要","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e3de11d8-3aef-422f-9df8-272b73b3445c","kind":"figure","order":375,"section_id":"sec_aad29f6c-119a-4c20-ae98-ca43a3166df4","character_id":null,"markdown":"![市場規模とデータセンター需要 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第14部　トランシーバー企業のシェア","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_27befe6c-dc33-4383-996a-c398aa3ad267","kind":"paragraph","order":378,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"公開情報で確認できる順位","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5956115-4a19-4289-a2c5-aad977684540","kind":"paragraph","order":379,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"LightCountingの2025年ランキングでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e1277686-44d2-499c-8e67-a83845d96f15","kind":"paragraph","order":380,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"Innolight","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c732923e-3783-4dd6-9bfb-d141a4e76e7a","kind":"paragraph","order":381,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"Eoptolink","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6675acb8-aad5-4439-acd3-f56968450657","kind":"paragraph","order":382,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coherent","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_377d9a8d-53bf-4035-b116-35ec584daec3","kind":"paragraph","order":383,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"Accelink","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ffa5298c-009f-411c-9178-d7de68db4cc2","kind":"paragraph","order":384,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"という並びです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_60769d5d-7620-401c-a551-7cdb27a18af9","kind":"paragraph","order":385,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"Eoptolinkは2025年にCoherentを抜いて世界2位となり、5～8位は比較的近いシェアで競争しているとされています。(LightCounting)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2406a82f-1cc3-480e-8af1-32b1848962f7","kind":"paragraph","order":386,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"Innolight自身の上場資料では、対象市場の定義によって約28％、Reuters／Counterpointの光インターコネクト市場推定では約25％とされています。(Reuters)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_86e7caf7-8c1a-4888-a278-10c16243e740","kind":"paragraph","order":387,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"注意すべき点","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0f702b26-aa8c-48f0-bf35-936b8227b6f7","kind":"paragraph","order":388,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"公開されている順位は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e798dde4-786a-460f-b4a7-59f82536f453","kind":"paragraph","order":389,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"Ethernet","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d4477304-045a-4cb0-bc07-238da62fd2bb","kind":"paragraph","order":390,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"DWDM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9a8b223d-5d9c-48eb-8242-d37acbd518ff","kind":"paragraph","order":391,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"FTTx","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a1b41ed4-7d41-4d75-9d27-2b0124d817d7","kind":"paragraph","order":392,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"無線フロントホール","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bdb0620e-ec50-4131-ad70-d109edcf1530","kind":"paragraph","order":393,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"を含む光トランシーバー全体です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9636d183-d38d-431b-81a8-9b8741b0f5ea","kind":"paragraph","order":394,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"1.6Tだけの世界企業別シェアは、信頼できる公開統計がありません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01605ccf-6c94-46fe-b09c-7c5acc499de0","kind":"paragraph","order":395,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_49bd0c74-fa65-4fc3-8ea1-37f6ee70b118","kind":"paragraph","order":396,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"Innolight 60％\nEoptolink 15％\nCoherent 15％","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_10361be1-7e54-449f-bcd4-73ffb7b5f9ee","kind":"paragraph","order":397,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"といった図は、特定顧客、特定四半期、特定仕様の推定である可能性があり、世界市場全体の確定値として使うべきではありません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_69f94eef-8a77-4912-a5f2-a569a78fdab8","kind":"paragraph","order":398,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6a888eb8-e33c-4d40-b27c-9994f25c3a08","kind":"paragraph","order":399,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"Innolightが1.6T初期量産で最大級","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8b4986fe-1471-4147-95c2-63635d3d9357","kind":"paragraph","order":400,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"Eoptolinkが急速に追随","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e56dfc1-15df-4d9e-b2bb-1b9a0f45df20","kind":"paragraph","order":401,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国2社が高速Pluggableで非常に強い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8b23a4c6-739e-4b8e-b742-ad0d37e29cda","kind":"paragraph","order":402,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coherent、Lumentum、AAOIが非中国側の代替候補","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3820ef1f-51b8-4455-a7da-2ae61632538f","kind":"paragraph","order":403,"section_id":"sec_3bce7157-849b-4ac2-95d4-d5a60daf24fd","character_id":null,"markdown":"という方向性は妥当です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad18a7f2-ca70-4e9a-bd26-03cd03237f7b","kind":"heading","order":404,"section_id":"sec_35f14ba3-7f04-46c5-aa64-5db12329ec91","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜企業順位・デバイス企業・構成変化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9831ef33-d1f6-4a2a-ac63-b3c14aa73bec","kind":"figure","order":405,"section_id":"sec_35f14ba3-7f04-46c5-aa64-5db12329ec91","character_id":null,"markdown":"![企業順位・デバイス企業・構成変化 01](/media/411fde4efce172e4a917c2e0a5042315b026b793b20d9586e40a983fe96dfea5-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_95f12d1b-39dd-413f-b719-305e0db7d617","kind":"figure","order":406,"section_id":"sec_35f14ba3-7f04-46c5-aa64-5db12329ec91","character_id":null,"markdown":"![企業順位・デバイス企業・構成変化 02](/media/4e2ce05fd2f6c4d662d15d6099392f1adf6766385140a4c9c2bfe1ad131d16f0-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e7f1c05-ffd8-4d35-a559-73739c8fd58f","kind":"figure","order":407,"section_id":"sec_35f14ba3-7f04-46c5-aa64-5db12329ec91","character_id":null,"markdown":"![企業順位・デバイス企業・構成変化 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第15部　分野別の公開シェア","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fc8850b6-0258-408c-ab2c-200f610ce72f","kind":"paragraph","order":410,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP基板","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3bd71f64-93d1-4cbd-bae5-ad2ba126ff6d","kind":"paragraph","order":411,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"Reutersによると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d04c62ba-0b98-4b18-9d4b-95c5b351af4e","kind":"paragraph","order":412,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"AXT＋住友電工：約80％","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6cc6ece1-1689-40ee-a972-660009efad1b","kind":"paragraph","order":413,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"JX金属：約10％","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5f14e3e9-75df-4b93-8ce1-1a644e549cdb","kind":"paragraph","order":414,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"その他：約10％","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ba4f1e6c-9086-424d-a1c1-b64df8055464","kind":"paragraph","order":415,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"です。(Reuters)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f5b9b49-8e4c-4389-87d7-d7896bf03e40","kind":"paragraph","order":416,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは光サプライチェーンで最も集中度の高い分野の一つです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_29e94580-2cbd-4991-8715-e07870faaa9e","kind":"paragraph","order":417,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"SiPh搭載比率","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b900184-085d-4b2c-8936-300a0f6b8be6","kind":"paragraph","order":418,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"2025年：約43％","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8a92f23d-3f89-4607-9cc5-0f7653813519","kind":"paragraph","order":419,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"2030年予測：約76％","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d2e10f51-cbfb-4ae2-95fb-e96971eb1a31","kind":"paragraph","order":420,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"です。(ST News)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0b33745b-aed2-4c1e-9763-4e837ba13cac","kind":"paragraph","order":421,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"光伝送システム","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_49959b62-7e30-43ec-a638-d77f15339819","kind":"paragraph","order":422,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"2025年の光伝送装置市場は約160億ドルで、上位企業は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b17b2558-7bde-4b98-bad0-99d994660a09","kind":"paragraph","order":423,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"Huawei","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5296c603-6e28-45b9-b922-e0944a63e84e","kind":"paragraph","order":424,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"Ciena","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8cb017b-f19b-4096-a2fc-b5415ff00a0a","kind":"paragraph","order":425,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"Nokia","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_201ea12b-6feb-42e4-b614-da24ee018b5d","kind":"paragraph","order":426,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"ZTE","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_10e29131-b72e-4f9d-a7c3-4a2c45f019f1","kind":"paragraph","order":427,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"Cisco","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cfad3504-29c9-4a66-b78d-fb98fad061bb","kind":"paragraph","order":428,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"でした。(Dell'Oro Group)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d23a662-71e8-42cf-9be4-fe929b87c55f","kind":"paragraph","order":429,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"2024年の公開シェアでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_717c85e4-966d-40d5-a64f-14d4e58e3a95","kind":"paragraph","order":430,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"Huawei：33％","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d1da7998-bbd3-4e61-a3e6-fcaaf90e4b74","kind":"paragraph","order":431,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"Ciena：19％","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0736d3f7-cfbf-4c68-a6e4-d251d2460e08","kind":"paragraph","order":432,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"Nokia＋Infineraの仮想合算：約19％","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_538aa81d-1145-4f06-8f8c-d2f57da28783","kind":"paragraph","order":433,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"でした。(Dell'Oro Group)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c5a1fc4-f241-414c-bcf2-1bff48179b83","kind":"paragraph","order":434,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"CWレーザー・EML・VCSEL","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7f7f802-dc06-4262-8be9-ceb4961e36c4","kind":"paragraph","order":435,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"企業別の正確な世界シェアは、公開情報が不足しています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4add6c4f-3408-40a5-9da1-2e16bf7d738f","kind":"paragraph","order":436,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし量産規模と製品範囲から、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff50140b-78c4-47d0-852c-0e373f1e7ef8","kind":"paragraph","order":437,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"CW InP：Coherent、Lumentum、住友電工が世界大手","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cff73708-3859-4a46-8ff7-41b6d5bcae43","kind":"paragraph","order":438,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"200G EML：Lumentum、Coherent、三菱電機、住友電工","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5041022-9d52-4e8f-b67a-d64cac1c3757","kind":"paragraph","order":439,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"高速VCSEL：Coherent、Lumentum、Broadcom","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_92b35998-b255-4137-b073-5b620fbf2f47","kind":"paragraph","order":440,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPO外部光源：Coherent、Lumentum、住友電工、Sivers","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0cc60a49-42a9-4b46-88ec-1a3f9a02ab7c","kind":"paragraph","order":441,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"が主要企業と考えられます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d726536-cfab-4898-b2dc-45e48012fa19","kind":"paragraph","order":442,"section_id":"sec_da84dba6-9d1f-4a16-bef7-e9599a1a9fca","character_id":null,"markdown":"住友電工は、自社予測としてデータセンター用光チップの数量構成が、2024年のEML 76％・CW-LD 24％から、2028年にはEML 31％・CW-LD 69％へ変化すると見ています。これは世界市場の確定シェアではなく、同社の市場見通しです。(Sumitomo Electric)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_09c3739b-b388-4dab-bc73-60a002b0932b","kind":"heading","order":443,"section_id":"sec_b940bfda-2371-4d17-a22e-62dd5061c6a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜基板・SiPh・装置・デバイスの公開シェア","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff7ef5f8-c646-4fbb-99e2-f4d7e55dc932","kind":"figure","order":444,"section_id":"sec_b940bfda-2371-4d17-a22e-62dd5061c6a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"![基板・SiPh・装置・デバイスの公開シェア 01](/media/84ce3c4d1633f8d0433a1cbeefa072f3709a0a9820189a2617fc18b8c9f6d4f6-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_df43ecf6-b222-4e4f-9ddc-df2554a98382","kind":"figure","order":445,"section_id":"sec_b940bfda-2371-4d17-a22e-62dd5061c6a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"![基板・SiPh・装置・デバイスの公開シェア 02](/media/7d0d4a9306b6a3bcb672a9a84db9a53ec62567d1cc240c04c8ad74ba06c730f3-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f75ed3e-30b6-4267-bb5a-334c93926738","kind":"figure","order":446,"section_id":"sec_b940bfda-2371-4d17-a22e-62dd5061c6a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"![基板・SiPh・装置・デバイスの公開シェア 03](/media/a83f4ad61416c1f84c39b46b731f29dc2ccc1f510e2a7ac269ef30c1378e5bc1-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d70a8b83-0fa1-4ce4-86b5-cea97e00e0f4","kind":"figure","order":447,"section_id":"sec_b940bfda-2371-4d17-a22e-62dd5061c6a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"![基板・SiPh・装置・デバイスの公開シェア 04](/media/1e5936e9275d7c79b420c4b6c38e657c446677d3dd49cb12f65ee4f086b994c6-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_09d365d8-7676-43fb-8792-76a4b234e95d","kind":"figure","order":448,"section_id":"sec_b940bfda-2371-4d17-a22e-62dd5061c6a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"![基板・SiPh・装置・デバイスの公開シェア 05](/media/8843386bcbe3e390655d5421b534d07af6beabb289bb40b809651d100c0893af-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f2da741f-51a6-4eac-8b63-4f299e4573ca","kind":"figure","order":449,"section_id":"sec_b940bfda-2371-4d17-a22e-62dd5061c6a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"![基板・SiPh・装置・デバイスの公開シェア 06](/media/6057275bc54a42e75f2c65f8eb400a9f7e64aac24267eb842af5458bc4906faa-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cfec90b3-1da6-4cf3-abf7-f952b106a8bd","kind":"heading","order":450,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第16部　米国による中国製トランシーバー規制の可能性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8fad477-188d-4555-9a90-ab7cd4067c59","kind":"paragraph","order":451,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年8月4日時点で、FCCは中国企業の新しい光トランシーバーモデルの輸入を禁止する案を準備しているとReutersが報じています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd932ba5-071b-498a-9c99-6fa1d1004b60","kind":"paragraph","order":452,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_742dbad3-3dd8-49b6-8e0f-6894edfc4447","kind":"paragraph","order":453,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"正式決定ではない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1cd3effd-b775-41bb-b085-0f0f52ee8957","kind":"paragraph","order":454,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"内容は変更され得る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_16af05cb-f4fd-49dc-b927-54cec8bfbee3","kind":"paragraph","order":455,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"撤回される可能性もある","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e03b3f3a-8c4d-43a5-a1e8-2d987e6b6aff","kind":"paragraph","order":456,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"既存モデルと新モデルの扱いが完全には確定していない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f33d951f-312f-4222-be46-6177efef0d3e","kind":"paragraph","order":457,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国資本基準か製造国基準かも不明","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_31d91120-4aa0-457c-ad44-59396d1ca035","kind":"paragraph","order":458,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"です。(Reuters)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_47fb5725-0769-4e28-8760-d68ac6070d8f","kind":"paragraph","order":459,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"規制が成立した場合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_25f7cce5-abd4-44e9-8c1d-d2b86fb16ff2","kind":"paragraph","order":460,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"短期","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_097315eb-b145-4ea2-8850-dbf3364521cb","kind":"paragraph","order":461,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"既存中国製モデルの駆け込み調達","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8d0abf0-02a8-4dfd-9c08-683722933db1","kind":"paragraph","order":462,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"新型1.6T・3.2Tの認証停止","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41efa520-4906-41a1-9d75-27edcf7e1990","kind":"paragraph","order":463,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"納期長期化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3dce83f2-8cae-4726-9646-75e301170ea6","kind":"paragraph","order":464,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"ASP上昇","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f13e5c94-8310-4325-908a-039f9e578b03","kind":"paragraph","order":465,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"米ハイパースケーラーの建設遅延","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5b1f7bc-c3ea-4936-a709-ffeb20061758","kind":"paragraph","order":466,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"中期","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_74fa145a-96c2-4693-8510-accddbd62720","kind":"paragraph","order":467,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coherent","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_00b80762-f2ad-496b-84da-dc0de4f1838c","kind":"paragraph","order":468,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"Lumentum","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2a6de9c3-d55c-4d8b-9e8f-7205f3e0cb9e","kind":"paragraph","order":469,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"AAOI","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e832956b-de37-4528-a930-cbc7d2ad751b","kind":"paragraph","order":470,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"Fabrinet","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ecc035b-b81b-4b4c-9daf-4cb0420db181","kind":"paragraph","order":471,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本のレーザー企業","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_54213ec0-0444-44e9-a9ae-72a684704b1c","kind":"paragraph","order":472,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"台湾・東南アジアの組立企業","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12ca72c2-d06f-461c-9425-e42151d01223","kind":"paragraph","order":473,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ注文が移る可能性があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d0ce93b6-07bd-4ea5-ba32-ffa46c92ac1d","kind":"paragraph","order":474,"section_id":"sec_8155f6ae-02fb-45d3-b878-ea3f221a49cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"長期","render_override":null},{"i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図解｜規制案と短期影響","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_511509ea-9140-44fe-8a40-b941ca04d319","kind":"figure","order":490,"section_id":"sec_0febe95c-ccf2-480d-b53b-930c304edc65","character_id":null,"markdown":"![規制案と短期影響 01](/media/53f756963ac27d456f885700cbbf1ffa3dcce360d3f72aac38596764a11ea8b9-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_26fff5f9-556c-481a-9024-acb68b503779","kind":"figure","order":491,"section_id":"sec_0febe95c-ccf2-480d-b53b-930c304edc65","character_id":null,"markdown":"![規制案と短期影響 02](/media/9a9c142d79d378b125042907d73989f4809cfed9fdcbae7fbe6e19b8560ac2df-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ed38c499-441b-49ea-8efa-30d24f93cb7b","kind":"figure","order":492,"section_id":"sec_0febe95c-ccf2-480d-b53b-930c304edc65","character_id":null,"markdown":"![規制案と短期影響 03](/media/9bd45450ad664bb8c9879ef352abab9570b21963f29fd4b5bbd571b5991ebe1d-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c75ac06-490b-4e96-b323-c0ca5e6962fa","kind":"figure","order":493,"section_id":"sec_0febe95c-ccf2-480d-b53b-930c304edc65","character_id":null,"markdown":"![規制案と短期影響 04](/media/97de71ed699194279629aaaa42376bce50abccd2b12ec8ba099a82a1c124fa1f-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12517bda-f119-4deb-a5e8-4434f98462fd","kind":"heading","order":494,"section_id":"sec_cea2a4d9-77ab-4609-b8fa-56870b0cb711","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第17部　世界の光銘柄を役割と規模で整理する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e0c8d53-a854-4ec0-903d-8fd39e9a2ee5","kind":"paragraph","order":495,"section_id":"sec_cea2a4d9-77ab-4609-b8fa-56870b0cb711","character_id":null,"markdown":"規模区分は以下とします。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_76d27ba5-f4a8-4217-a8bc-bf9429d5d972","kind":"table","order":496,"section_id":"sec_cea2a4d9-77ab-4609-b8fa-56870b0cb711","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 区分 | 意味                       |\n| --- | --- |\n| S  | 世界首位級、業界標準や供給能力を左右する     |\n| A  | 世界的な主要企業、特定分野の首位級        |\n| B  | 中堅・成長企業、特定技術や顧客に強い       |\n| C  | 初期量産・小型企業、成功余地と失敗リスクが大きい |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef6b9707-765e-4189-8813-6bff307829ee","kind":"heading","order":497,"section_id":"sec_f1741c75-e5b5-4643-a6ce-b6c6b9faacbb","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 1．InP基板・エピ・MOCVD","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2342ce54-cf71-4234-8dbf-eccc29771857","kind":"table","order":498,"section_id":"sec_f1741c75-e5b5-4643-a6ce-b6c6b9faacbb","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 地域    | 企業       |   コード | 役割           | 規模  | 投資上の特徴              |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 米国／中国 | AXT      |  AXTI | InP基板        | A   | 最上流だが中国輸出許可リスク      |\n| 日本    | 住友電工     |  5802 | InP基板、CW、EML | S   | 上流からデバイスまで垂直統合      |\n| 日本    | JX金属     |  5016 | InP基板        | A   | 約10％シェア、最大1,200億円投資 |\n| 台湾    | LandMark |  3081 | InP・GaAsエピ   | A～B | レーザー量産増の外部エピ受益      |\n| 台湾    | VPEC     |  2455 | III-Vエピ      | B   | 顧客認証と稼働率の変動大        |\n| 英国    | IQE      | IQE.L | GaAs・InPエピ   | B   | 高純度だが財務リスクあり        |\n| ドイツ   | AIXTRON  |  AIXA | MOCVD装置      | A   | 能力増強局面で大きなレバレッジ     |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_83aecd71-7b44-4984-9ecd-e7b43b019833","kind":"paragraph","order":499,"section_id":"sec_f1741c75-e5b5-4643-a6ce-b6c6b9faacbb","character_id":null,"markdown":"AXTと住友電工で世界InP基板の約80％、JX金属が約10％を占めます。JX金属は2026年、今後4年間で最大1,200億円のInP能力増強方針を公表しました。AIXTRONはLumentumからInP向けG10-AsP装置を複数受注しています。(Reuters)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_13779e25-4318-48f8-b39a-810afcce6c43","kind":"heading","order":500,"section_id":"sec_d32263cc-485e-4d69-a054-87cd42637fe7","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 2．CW InP・DFB・EML・VCSEL","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0153cb0d-82c0-43a6-b3dd-7020748bb64e","kind":"table","order":501,"section_id":"sec_d32263cc-485e-4d69-a054-87cd42637fe7","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 地域 | 企業           |    コード | 主力                    | 規模  | 評価                 |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 米国 | Coherent     |   COHR | CW、EML、VCSEL、SiPh、TRx | S   | 最も技術範囲が広い          |\n| 米国 | Lumentum     |   LITE | CW、UHP、EML、ELSFP      | S   | InP高出力レーザーの本命      |\n| 日本 | 住友電工         |   5802 | CW、EML、InP基板          | S   | 上流と光源の双方を保有        |\n| 日本 | 三菱電機         |   6503 | 200G EML、PIN-PD       | A   | 200G EMLへの直接性が高い   |\n| 日本 | 古河電工         |   5801 | CW-DFB、EML、ITLA       | A   | 光源・コネクター・ファイバー     |\n| 欧州 | Sivers       |   SIVE | CW DFBアレイ、ELS         | C～B | 小型でCPO採用への感応度大     |\n| 韓国 | OE Solutions | 138080 | ELSFP、通信TRx           | B   | 23dBm UHP ELSFPを開発 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_63e16e9a-ad29-4886-9d8e-8e9a6ff56669","kind":"paragraph","order":502,"section_id":"sec_d32263cc-485e-4d69-a054-87cd42637fe7","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coherentは1.6TでSiPh＋CW、EML、VCSELの三方式を並行展開しています。LumentumはCW、1W級UHP、EML、ELSFPまでを持ちます。三菱電機は800G・1.6T向け200G EMLを量産しています。古河電工はSiPh用CW-DFBとCPO用小型多芯コネクターを展開しています。(Coherent Inc)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9af6d3ac-8411-4c14-894b-7ad0d49bc32c","kind":"paragraph","order":503,"section_id":"sec_d32263cc-485e-4d69-a054-87cd42637fe7","character_id":null,"markdown":"SiversはDFBレーザーアレイを外部光源へ供給し、GlobalFoundriesのSiPh・CPO基盤との協業を進めています。OE Solutionsは23dBm級ELSFPのサンプル出荷を計画しています。(Sivers Semiconductors)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a0cd6fbd-db55-44ab-a668-f0bc23faa748","kind":"heading","order":504,"section_id":"sec_d992ecbd-b1ad-4cbe-86b8-27885c89b89f","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 3．SiPh・CPO・DSP","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bbc2138f-7c03-44a3-b8cc-4c66a0eb03e7","kind":"table","order":505,"section_id":"sec_d992ecbd-b1ad-4cbe-86b8-27885c89b89f","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 地域  | 企業              |      コード | 役割                  | 規模  | 光事業純度 |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 米国  | Broadcom        |     AVGO | スイッチASIC、SerDes、CPO | S   | 中～低   |\n| 米国  | Marvell         |     MRVL | DSP、TIA、ドライバー、LPO   | S   | 中     |\n| 台湾  | TSMC            |     2330 | COUPE、CoWoS、CPO     | S   | 低     |\n| 台湾  | ASE             | 3711／ASX | CPOパッケージ            | S   | 低     |\n| 欧州  | STMicro         |      STM | 300mm SiPh PIC100   | S   | 低～中   |\n| 米国  | GlobalFoundries |      GFS | SiPhファウンドリー、CPO     | A～S | 低     |\n| カナダ | POET            |     POET | 光インターポーザ、光エンジン      | C～B | 高     |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_153de503-1770-46ee-a653-fc7442f253d4","kind":"paragraph","order":506,"section_id":"sec_d992ecbd-b1ad-4cbe-86b8-27885c89b89f","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMCはCOUPEを2026年からCPOへ統合し、ASEもASIC近傍に光エンジンを配置するCPOを実証しています。STはPIC100を300mmで量産し、200G per laneの1.6T SiPhを対象としています。(pr.tsmc.com)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_03be9996-cd81-4c74-9046-6f3254659c83","kind":"paragraph","order":507,"section_id":"sec_d992ecbd-b1ad-4cbe-86b8-27885c89b89f","character_id":null,"markdown":"POETはレーザー、変調器、受光器、電子ICを光インターポーザ上で統合する1.6T光エンジンを展開しています。ただし大規模反復売上と量産歩留まりは、なお検証段階です。(POET Technologies)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c6cefba-a6d2-4b15-8c76-79f8832d7699","kind":"heading","order":508,"section_id":"sec_8e83c4e9-c8ef-44fc-a30c-432d48374526","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 4．完成トランシーバー・光エンジン","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f6b5803-fcf2-476d-8a7e-10aeaf3a5977","kind":"table","order":509,"section_id":"sec_8e83c4e9-c8ef-44fc-a30c-432d48374526","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 地域    | 企業               |    コード | 役割              | 規模  | 特徴          |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 中国    | Innolight        | 300308 | 800G・1.6T TRx   | S   | 世界首位        |\n| 中国    | Eoptolink        | 300502 | 800G・1.6T、LPO   | S   | 2025年世界2位   |\n| 中国    | Accelink         | 002281 | TRx・光部品         | A   | 世界4位        |\n| 中国    | TFC              | 300394 | 光エンジン、FAU、CPO部品 | A   | 1.6T光エンジン量産 |\n| 米国    | Coherent         |   COHR | TRxと部品          | S～A | 垂直統合        |\n| 米国    | Lumentum         |   LITE | Cloud Light系TRx | A   | 光源との統合      |\n| 米国    | AAOI             |   AAOI | 800G・1.6T TRx   | B～A | 再量産局面       |\n| 台湾・米国 | Source Photonics |  非純粋上場 | TRx             | A   | 中国資本判定に注意   |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fa608b6b-0cb9-46b9-951f-121cab915908","kind":"paragraph","order":510,"section_id":"sec_8e83c4e9-c8ef-44fc-a30c-432d48374526","character_id":null,"markdown":"TFCは1.6T光エンジンの量産と、CPO向け光部品の開発を進めています。(TFCSZ)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4df3f746-ba94-43f4-8924-0dcfaa61adbe","kind":"paragraph","order":511,"section_id":"sec_8e83c4e9-c8ef-44fc-a30c-432d48374526","character_id":null,"markdown":"AAOIは2026年に1.6Tの初回量産注文と800G注文を獲得し、米国・台湾で能力増強を進めています。ただし、過去の100Gから400Gへの世代移行失敗を考慮すると、認証、歩留まり、反復注文の確認が必要です。(AOI Newsroom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0b42b618-b29d-480b-8682-2227662d7abc","kind":"heading","order":512,"section_id":"sec_67231fa7-ee68-4801-835f-d5bbb831f2db","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 5．光実装・EMS・ファイバー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f62fe4c9-231b-4b75-a5d8-42a2227bb7d7","kind":"table","order":513,"section_id":"sec_67231fa7-ee68-4801-835f-d5bbb831f2db","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 地域    | 企業       |    コード | 役割            | 規模  | 特徴         |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 米国／タイ | Fabrinet |     FN | 光実装、組立、試験     | S   | 高難度光EMS    |\n| 米国    | Corning  |    GLW | ファイバー、ケーブル、接続 | S   | AI DC配線の中心 |\n| 日本    | Fujikura |   5803 | 高密度ファイバー、融着   | A～S | 配線密度増の受益   |\n| 日本    | 古河電工     |   5801 | ファイバー、コネクター   | A   | レーザーも保有    |\n| 日本    | 住友電工     |   5802 | ファイバー、コネクター   | S   | 光全層へ露出     |\n| 中国    | TFC      | 300394 | FAU・光実装       | A   | CPO結合部品    |\n| 台湾    | ASE      |    ASX | 高度パッケージ       | S   | ASIC＋光統合   |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fe668aca-28e3-4ac4-898a-e88a01e4e2e2","kind":"paragraph","order":514,"section_id":"sec_67231fa7-ee68-4801-835f-d5bbb831f2db","character_id":null,"markdown":"Fabrinetは光通信部品、モジュール、サブシステムについて、高精度光パッケージ、実装、統合、試験を担います。2026年度第3四半期売上は12.14億ドルまで拡大しています。(Fabrinet)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8e81696-b0d2-4d94-ac48-99a7e211e454","kind":"paragraph","order":515,"section_id":"sec_67231fa7-ee68-4801-835f-d5bbb831f2db","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPOでは完成Pluggableの個数が減っても、ASIC、PIC、レーザー、ファイバー、冷却を一体化する工程が難しくなるため、Fabrinetのような高度光EMSの付加価値は残り得ます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_60ec8437-f968-4e34-8287-c901c5d369bf","kind":"heading","order":516,"section_id":"sec_caf49de5-7162-44cb-9c30-25a9d6e66a88","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜光接続の役割別プレイヤー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d877a367-c787-4335-a7e5-d46e1726a26d","kind":"figure","order":517,"section_id":"sec_caf49de5-7162-44cb-9c30-25a9d6e66a88","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光接続の役割別プレイヤー 01](/media/b55521ed5c5b5c8e3bd44c8423c1dc008ef88db239e8041ccf18c4b772628dd0-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_86a37428-a1fd-47c4-b9d1-701853447870","kind":"figure","order":518,"section_id":"sec_caf49de5-7162-44cb-9c30-25a9d6e66a88","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光接続の役割別プレイヤー 02](/media/f4280ad196bf4734a4d2036267d7389b193539ac22b88cfb6bade1efb7d068d0-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9470f566-f4a7-4321-881f-5ee5100791c8","kind":"figure","order":519,"section_id":"sec_caf49de5-7162-44cb-9c30-25a9d6e66a88","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光接続の役割別プレイヤー 03](/media/d8967112322e1461adc565b5a7fa9479355fc8a4a90f72a0f834529680342d67-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ab71e96f-3d1e-4ddb-883a-d772f895abe1","kind":"figure","order":520,"section_id":"sec_caf49de5-7162-44cb-9c30-25a9d6e66a88","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光接続の役割別プレイヤー 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Solutions","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fbd84518-cdff-4f76-a219-9a14a73e9189","kind":"paragraph","order":560,"section_id":"sec_f8bb6f4b-06ab-40d3-a267-7a88e25c102d","character_id":null,"markdown":"顧客採用一件の影響が大きい反面、量産遅延、増資、希薄化、歩留まり失敗のリスクも大きくなります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7aba0c11-4d02-452a-aebb-a924fbcfaf4f","kind":"heading","order":561,"section_id":"sec_6314e52f-9717-4a0d-b266-e3c3d4a57d86","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜投資テーマと小型高変動銘柄","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d57b837-35f6-4c10-b402-ef9b71eb6ddf","kind":"figure","order":562,"section_id":"sec_6314e52f-9717-4a0d-b266-e3c3d4a57d86","character_id":null,"markdown":"![投資テーマと小型高変動銘柄 01](/media/27f629fd57b9eec4f2c685e8fa283beb39c81d6e99d77f6d3c36816127123604-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_38fa669a-9122-4fb3-b6ba-372fdde1cd5c","kind":"figure","order":563,"section_id":"sec_6314e52f-9717-4a0d-b266-e3c3d4a57d86","character_id":null,"markdown":"![投資テーマと小型高変動銘柄 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      ↓\n高純度インジウム\n        ＋\n高純度赤リン\n        ↓\nInP多結晶を合成\n        ↓\nInP単結晶を育成\n        ↓\n切断・研削・研磨\n        ↓\nInP基板\n        ↓\nエピ成長\n        ↓\nCWレーザー・EML・受光器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0671a55b-aff0-4e2c-9098-39454dcc5f0c","kind":"paragraph","order":568,"section_id":"sec_360cdc14-8aaa-46c5-a1c3-30df861d71e5","character_id":null,"markdown":"AXTの開示資料によると、InP多結晶1kgの製造には、実績値として約0.83～0.87kgの高純度インジウムと、約0.29～0.30kgの赤リンが使われています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cadb5ad4-b0a4-414e-8e6a-1fb20da2107f","kind":"paragraph","order":569,"section_id":"sec_360cdc14-8aaa-46c5-a1c3-30df861d71e5","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりInP供給を考える際には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e5e232e-5081-4d46-9ee5-28e153f29c2a","kind":"paragraph","order":570,"section_id":"sec_360cdc14-8aaa-46c5-a1c3-30df861d71e5","character_id":null,"markdown":"インジウム金属\n   ↓\nInP多結晶\n   ↓\nInP基板\n   ↓\nレーザー・受光器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a68d0f0a-91de-421e-a815-904adbb9d559","kind":"paragraph","order":571,"section_id":"sec_360cdc14-8aaa-46c5-a1c3-30df861d71e5","character_id":null,"markdown":"という各段階を分けなければなりません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_36e5218d-e115-402b-b8fb-ad25e0137345","kind":"paragraph","order":572,"section_id":"sec_360cdc14-8aaa-46c5-a1c3-30df861d71e5","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国政府は、完成したInP基板だけでなく、その上流にあるインジウム化合物や製造技術を規制することで、光部品供給網を複数の地点から制御できます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_132e0fb1-70ad-4776-ad1d-407319c2e2e6","kind":"heading","order":573,"section_id":"sec_48bb267e-429c-4679-b9d6-533b6ff36cc0","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜インジウム・リンとInP供給網","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_598060fb-de51-4673-b475-30a05f532d00","kind":"figure","order":574,"section_id":"sec_48bb267e-429c-4679-b9d6-533b6ff36cc0","character_id":null,"markdown":"![インジウム・リンとInP供給網 01](/media/ec03b3d9a3ce11645591fcbe31de27e36e46b002e0c25676adf0b22b505ff915-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4b489d3b-c693-44b5-89c3-7606363c066f","kind":"figure","order":575,"section_id":"sec_48bb267e-429c-4679-b9d6-533b6ff36cc0","character_id":null,"markdown":"![インジウム・リンとInP供給網 02](/media/3328411e7fc014a7840c9bff36de0e30ad902582e4e7afd6a140e2ce33a52144-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_27e5220e-1fcd-418d-970a-05f0336e1e77","kind":"figure","order":576,"section_id":"sec_48bb267e-429c-4679-b9d6-533b6ff36cc0","character_id":null,"markdown":"![インジウム・リンとInP供給網 03](/media/235ffbeaa389740bcde8879e947cc0af9162910703732f1a9e18f0d18d710c92-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_443beb25-34de-4abc-9633-623fb6b34ff0","kind":"heading","order":577,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第20部　2025年10月のレアアース規制停止とInP規制は別である","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f20b324-a2c4-4b9d-bb6f-72e67144ab1d","kind":"paragraph","order":578,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"2025年10月、中国はレアアース、関連技術、超硬材料、電池材料などを対象とする追加の輸出管理措置を発表しました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6531804a-fe98-4e95-99c8-f76d02f29e8c","kind":"paragraph","order":579,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"その後の米中合意により、これらの一部は2025年11月から2026年11月10日まで、約1年間停止されました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bbd34456-faa7-404c-813e-7df38276d014","kind":"paragraph","order":580,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、ここで最も重要なのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_deeaebab-db0b-4d23-add3-ea22f4b51399","kind":"paragraph","order":581,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"この停止措置によって、InPに対する輸出管理まで解除されたわけではない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_234121c5-416f-4c1d-a9c5-7a4007696fbb","kind":"paragraph","order":582,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"ということです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_22043476-12ef-4028-b611-05a1dbcb21be","kind":"paragraph","order":583,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP関連の規制は、2025年10月のレアアース規制より前の、2025年2月4日に導入されています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5cb3c93d-8a5e-4ca1-9341-53be8eb193fc","kind":"paragraph","order":584,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"対象には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c2fec366-baff-484d-b943-ef3f229aa704","kind":"paragraph","order":585,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"リン化インジウム","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7a199299-5489-48cb-8525-718e39f6385e","kind":"paragraph","order":586,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"トリメチルインジウム","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_13148560-07c4-4ef6-9e81-caac9d0c550e","kind":"paragraph","order":587,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"トリエチルインジウム","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dcc7fe3a-c724-488d-b9ae-f0d1989bb5f6","kind":"paragraph","order":588,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"関連する製造技術","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d25fca5f-8f89-4999-a0f5-76e323873250","kind":"paragraph","order":589,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"などが含まれます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a0e64acd-802b-406a-9c0a-dd4c3b7af7da","kind":"paragraph","order":590,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"2025年11月の停止は、主に2025年10月に追加された措置を対象としており、2月に導入されたInP輸出許可制度は別に存続しています。中国政府も輸出管理について、全面的な輸出禁止ではなく、条件を満たした申請に許可を与える制度だと説明しています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f686862-cd41-468b-8220-b42810a3d1e2","kind":"paragraph","order":591,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、2026年11月10日に注目すべきなのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_29fc8024-7099-47f2-b329-411d0af5ebb7","kind":"paragraph","order":592,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP規制が解除されるか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f5b88375-734e-4d91-bb21-77c18492d4a2","kind":"paragraph","order":593,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"ではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ce2e723-f20e-43ea-b996-8f7987037ee6","kind":"paragraph","order":594,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"2025年10月分の停止措置が延長されるか\n        ＋\nInP・インジウムに別の追加措置が導入されるか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bb718cef-aafc-4372-83bf-0e17cdb727a2","kind":"paragraph","order":595,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84ed3477-7c4c-4e59-acba-38b180ffeaf9","kind":"paragraph","order":596,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"最も可能性が高い展開","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_559bb430-3bc6-46b9-a60e-3f86c2f1edcc","kind":"paragraph","order":597,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年11月以降も、追加規制の全面復活を避けるための交渉が行われる可能性があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_736b71cd-f430-493f-9574-715f76b64884","kind":"paragraph","order":598,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、停止期間が延長されたとしても、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5417cf36-a972-445b-b703-eb48851be8a9","kind":"paragraph","order":599,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP輸出許可","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_effebaa0-cdba-4d95-a7b3-54ad80e4026a","kind":"paragraph","order":600,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"ガリウム関連許可","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_13435570-0bce-44ba-a89f-642ecf0648c7","kind":"paragraph","order":601,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"最終需要者審査","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d93e4872-1ba6-456a-9b10-d87d1385a738","kind":"paragraph","order":602,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"軍民両用企業への個別審査","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_14d808f0-6ae2-4331-bccb-e016a8f2843a","kind":"paragraph","order":603,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国税関による書類確認","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a7ca77b3-4c6d-43d2-87c8-0d7fdd3e98c2","kind":"paragraph","order":604,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"まで元に戻るとは限りません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d26c2398-ea19-4363-903e-bfb5f1e95810","kind":"paragraph","order":605,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"今後は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a11a4051-b7d3-436d-9f03-84a3f42c0b67","kind":"paragraph","order":606,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"表面的には米中合意が延長される一方、個別材料については許可制度が残り続ける","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_49710be5-1f0f-4ed4-ac45-572303c86fda","kind":"paragraph","order":607,"section_id":"sec_39f2da2f-a7b9-4416-b7c6-b345c0999f75","character_id":null,"markdown":"という二層構造が最も現実的です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_26ad2e72-e3c6-4a12-8bbb-c75bd5e36ba7","kind":"heading","order":608,"section_id":"sec_b7bb2f07-c53d-4966-b519-adfc7b44bd91","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜規制停止と現実的シナリオ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_38c4bdc3-ebd0-43b9-8d49-9f98bf5de334","kind":"figure","order":609,"section_id":"sec_b7bb2f07-c53d-4966-b519-adfc7b44bd91","character_id":null,"markdown":"![規制停止と現実的シナリオ 01](/media/40a761281fc607fbc8d181ab02df071aa3f0850b95687e34ede0c8a22096e105-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b07bdf6c-1ba3-4f73-9b87-5b72372241d2","kind":"figure","order":610,"section_id":"sec_b7bb2f07-c53d-4966-b519-adfc7b44bd91","character_id":null,"markdown":"![規制停止と現実的シナリオ 02](/media/f53178838753c7df19fc9affbbff00463f50379c1602b99129361793fb2a8322-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fbb8d090-478f-48d1-8bd8-42fa27ee6cd7","kind":"heading","order":611,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第21部　インジウム金属そのものが規制される可能性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b32179e6-8557-4319-8656-f6995fa0e6e4","kind":"paragraph","order":612,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年8月時点で、インジウム金属そのものは、中国の正式な輸出管理対象には全面的には含まれていません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d892455c-529f-46f7-b3ff-51fbf87f1e87","kind":"paragraph","order":613,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方で、中国税関は欧米向けのインジウム輸出について、最終需要者、使用目的、再輸出先などの確認を強めています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b82a5897-87cd-44c4-915e-d398deac311b","kind":"paragraph","order":614,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国は世界のインジウム生産のおよそ70％を占めています。インジウムは主に亜鉛製錬の副産物であり、需要が増えたからといって、インジウムだけを目的として短期間に鉱山生産を増やすことは容易ではありません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7cc57ef3-fb35-4ed5-94f4-e6bd2aad06d2","kind":"paragraph","order":615,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"なぜインジウム規制は強力なのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ae62166-dd1a-483f-a6bc-76e5a3d48bda","kind":"paragraph","order":616,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国製InP基板だけを止めた場合、日本の住友電工やJX金属、Coherentの非中国設備が代替供給を増やせます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b979c29-c5f3-4b9b-bf9f-aafb68d109c0","kind":"paragraph","order":617,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、インジウム金属そのものを止めれば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a3ea34aa-686d-4261-9791-6135520eaba6","kind":"paragraph","order":618,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国製InP基板\nだけでなく\n日本製InP基板\n米国製InP基板\n欧州製InP基板","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3e63b7f2-3512-48ae-9aa5-a5821455b0de","kind":"paragraph","order":619,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"の原料調達にも影響を与えられます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5afe3ad-ec60-456a-8ddc-be1a1de7824d","kind":"paragraph","order":620,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりインジウム規制は、中国国内の一企業を止める措置ではなく、中国国外のInP産業全体に作用する規制になります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_012748c1-b192-48b7-8c95-884ac6a6b9a6","kind":"paragraph","order":621,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国にとって合理的な規制方法","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd31cf5a-8145-4c6d-aeba-a6b83719eac1","kind":"paragraph","order":622,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国が直ちに世界向け全面禁輸へ進むとは限りません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef2723b6-5ec2-48bc-9241-9e7ec2877e42","kind":"paragraph","order":623,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"より合理的なのは、次のような段階的管理です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1fe0a64e-d903-433e-a033-de284a14a0ee","kind":"paragraph","order":624,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"第1段階\n輸出書類と最終需要者確認を強化\n        ↓\n第2段階\n高純度品だけを許可制にする\n        ↓\n第3段階\n米国のAI・防衛・通信企業向けを厳格審査\n        ↓\n第4段階\nインジウム金属の輸出量を抑える\n        ↓\n第5段階\n中国国内でInPへ加工した製品だけを個別許可","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b886097-3dda-405e-9f05-6bfab5152249","kind":"paragraph","order":625,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国にとっては、原料を安価な金属のまま輸出するより、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93bd19f6-0357-4a63-8981-b32a91c079b9","kind":"paragraph","order":626,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国国内でInP多結晶、単結晶、基板へ加工し、付加価値を国内に残す","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_26e1ba7f-eae9-4846-8f8b-da34dae7bdcf","kind":"paragraph","order":627,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"方が産業政策上も有利です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c869542-a1c0-4df6-a0c5-48e88abe6488","kind":"paragraph","order":628,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"このため、インジウム金属の輸出を抑えながら、InP基板の輸出許可を個別に管理する政策は十分に考えられます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a306e49f-2d8c-4f86-b2ce-61b6f8c8ab70","kind":"paragraph","order":629,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"可能性の評価","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_60ea764f-e626-41f9-ae77-2e5dce315c46","kind":"paragraph","order":630,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"今後12～18か月についての筆者推定は、次の通りです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f29286e1-ff1f-42e6-bcc7-2b9ea2a9d0f1","kind":"table","order":631,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"| シナリオ | 推定可能性 |\n| --- | --- |\n| インジウム輸出時の最終需要者審査が続く | 高い |\n| 高純度インジウムの正式な許可制 | 中程度 |\n| 米国の特定企業向け実質停止 | 中～低 |\n| 世界向けのインジウム全面禁止 | 低い |\n| InP・関連化合物の許可制継続 | 非常に高い |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8cbb66fb-d5e8-4f5d-a8d6-ae00fe6d3cfc","kind":"paragraph","order":632,"section_id":"sec_7aac2f9e-33aa-4d78-9091-0b0fc8ae4ded","character_id":null,"markdown":"恒久的な全面禁輸より、申請は可能だが、許可時期と数量を中国政府が決める状態の方が、交渉カードとして長く利用できます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_40aad959-7006-494a-94c8-7e208556381d","kind":"heading","order":633,"section_id":"sec_148355b4-ceea-4fde-980e-fa626186ad4b","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜インジウム規制のケース","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c9b32e68-16c1-46a4-b720-11c3c0a94617","kind":"figure","order":634,"section_id":"sec_148355b4-ceea-4fde-980e-fa626186ad4b","character_id":null,"markdown":"![インジウム規制のケース 01](/media/60064b9152d6bc12290a27066209f9b635b24f575af73245768f9352ecc9dfbc-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9bf5ad71-502d-44d2-8e58-98fbd3101830","kind":"figure","order":635,"section_id":"sec_148355b4-ceea-4fde-980e-fa626186ad4b","character_id":null,"markdown":"![インジウム規制のケース 02](/media/1da9b370137eb539efab67d1328881573f34e53801f0c15cad7ddd5874996604-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0f717544-2016-4492-87b0-109caffdd6f8","kind":"figure","order":636,"section_id":"sec_148355b4-ceea-4fde-980e-fa626186ad4b","character_id":null,"markdown":"![インジウム規制のケース 03](/media/32d449c20675a0277fe80541ae90e09a259450b5e76653f119a4b1e6ce8c2be8-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1be8d4ba-4057-44cc-9dd5-2a00e41d1d5e","kind":"heading","order":637,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第22部　リン原料まで規制される可能性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_354643fe-7bcc-40ea-a9c9-0ced3197f576","kind":"paragraph","order":638,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPは、インジウムとリンをほぼ1対1の原子比で結合した化合物です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_510a4e25-6574-4788-91a6-d91594ae02d4","kind":"paragraph","order":639,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、インジウムだけでなくリンが止まってもInPは製造できません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e81abed-3be9-4534-8e92-215018ec24b8","kind":"paragraph","order":640,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、リンについては三つの市場を分ける必要があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_50ba5e16-67fd-49ec-8322-bab257d162f6","kind":"paragraph","order":641,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"リン鉱石\n   ↓\n肥料・リン酸\n   ↓\n一般工業用元素リン\n   ↓\n高純度赤リン・半導体用リン","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a8938204-2fe2-4563-bc81-9ea64afe7d4f","kind":"paragraph","order":642,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"リン鉱石全体の規制","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8dd2a3fe-4c96-4c7e-8c9a-1a30337c4d3a","kind":"paragraph","order":643,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"リン鉱石やリン酸肥料は、農業と食料供給に直結する巨大市場です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c251443-ce18-488b-94a8-59dc2598d79e","kind":"paragraph","order":644,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国がInP供給を止めるためだけに、リン鉱石や肥料用リン全体を全面禁輸するのは、世界の農産物価格を押し上げ、外交的反発を広げるため、効率的な政策ではありません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a7674f00-9d74-45dc-af9b-6a1da2e7bb6a","kind":"paragraph","order":645,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPに使われるリンの量は、肥料市場全体から見れば小さいためです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9c60fe99-63a3-41d6-a440-0f74cc97b6bd","kind":"paragraph","order":646,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"高純度リンだけを規制する可能性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_51f7e4c3-07df-4b98-b993-939eb4054bae","kind":"paragraph","order":647,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方で、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2105c654-cd6a-48e7-ad12-9dbd0710eb38","kind":"paragraph","order":648,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"高純度赤リン","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_108340fd-dc1a-4217-b428-b69f312b3313","kind":"paragraph","order":649,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP多結晶用リン","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73d7f2b5-e360-4c1a-bb79-d0133e68dffe","kind":"paragraph","order":650,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"半導体グレードのリン材料","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6321a577-5201-4e87-9d2c-ec3d3065b0ef","kind":"paragraph","order":651,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"特定純度以上の元素リン","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_916b921a-bf8e-4b5d-bbba-335a18375156","kind":"paragraph","order":652,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"精製・合成技術","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ccf675f4-e4f9-4b01-b21e-7c2d367563ec","kind":"paragraph","order":653,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"だけを狙うことは可能です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e9e4f02-2b9e-49c9-a67d-e22688e686f5","kind":"paragraph","order":654,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP製造で必要なのは、単に元素としてリンを含んでいればよい原料ではありません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6cea5820-5da2-4a61-9b09-0aff730e6164","kind":"paragraph","order":655,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"微量の、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a74c6b0e-761f-46b7-9cc4-b770e470a3f5","kind":"paragraph","order":656,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"酸素","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a36967b6-f9c5-40d4-b8c3-6c4336113830","kind":"paragraph","order":657,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"炭素","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_377baf23-f220-424d-9b6f-9791df77055d","kind":"paragraph","order":658,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"硫黄","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_db7708db-3c5e-4fc8-a73a-4b1c7caa9873","kind":"paragraph","order":659,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"金属不純物","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bbbef910-ac21-4bd6-8d0e-c6dff606a015","kind":"paragraph","order":660,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"水分","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_97566aa4-9a7c-48de-a85c-9d855542bbae","kind":"paragraph","order":661,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"が結晶欠陥、キャリア濃度、電気抵抗、レーザー寿命へ影響します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd0a442f-fac5-4944-b0d9-65a18de050df","kind":"paragraph","order":662,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため一般工業用リンを購入し、すぐに半導体用InPへ転用することはできません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_748e4548-9fc2-45f9-965e-84fe0a95ac60","kind":"paragraph","order":663,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"リン規制の可能性がインジウムより低い理由","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad1e95bd-c21e-4d67-ad7e-e726da55e950","kind":"paragraph","order":664,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国は既に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_df3a348b-bbcd-4d4d-8006-3d6212c58d8a","kind":"paragraph","order":665,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-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     ＞\n高純度インジウム\n      ＞\n高純度半導体用リン\n      ＞\nリン鉱石全体","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4599347a-58da-4a0d-b823-9129cabb06dc","kind":"paragraph","order":673,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"の順になると考えられます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ea2159a0-85e1-4e7d-b398-723ae38de3f4","kind":"paragraph","order":674,"section_id":"sec_9b094a24-b5af-4260-a0de-46f2e30342e2","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、台湾有事や米中対立の急激な悪化など、経済合理性より安全保障が優先される局面では、高純度リンが追加の管理対象に入る可能性を無視できません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_db51b22a-7f9c-410e-964f-84b03a2b81b7","kind":"heading","order":675,"section_id":"sec_92bc5fe1-27e7-44cb-8e34-6b3b4c599628","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜リン原料と規制優先順位","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f15d1c4-4746-43f3-b780-ea65dfa7da35","kind":"figure","order":676,"section_id":"sec_92bc5fe1-27e7-44cb-8e34-6b3b4c599628","character_id":null,"markdown":"![リン原料と規制優先順位 01](/media/6097261c35b0c5141aafcb87c48e75a2db1aa0c1429d8072f821146e0f2f0933-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bb58837b-1db0-4060-8c81-38c0cc94268e","kind":"figure","order":677,"section_id":"sec_92bc5fe1-27e7-44cb-8e34-6b3b4c599628","character_id":null,"markdown":"![リン原料と規制優先順位 02](/media/a75dd1bccbaa5cad5ceabfb2d1bfe1c0f499ee124caca3c808ef1203bd734b1f-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fafc7787-7d69-4e4a-81c6-5bfa8c995132","kind":"figure","order":678,"section_id":"sec_92bc5fe1-27e7-44cb-8e34-6b3b4c599628","character_id":null,"markdown":"![リン原料と規制優先順位 03](/media/5c5921b848a5e30de6e728fb44d4ae9854b6b8d07e524569237229d8e5d28a44-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_46bba058-d2bb-4e90-96b7-a5f040c2789b","kind":"heading","order":679,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第23部　AXTの本質的なリスク","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7582d583-8f55-4214-863e-938812e6e31d","kind":"paragraph","order":680,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"AXTはNASDAQ上場の米国企業ですが、製造供給網の実態は中国に大きく依存しています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f6e7bf39-1cfa-4f54-a208-4bd4a38dd25f","kind":"paragraph","order":681,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"同社は、2004年以降、製品を中国で製造しており、InP、GaAs、Geを含むすべてのウェハー基板を中国で生産しています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_69312dca-e038-480b-8dcd-a490afef2377","kind":"paragraph","order":682,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらに中国国内で、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6a2c7642-74a8-4fc4-a776-2ba26ab81d9c","kind":"paragraph","order":683,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"高純度金属","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_06e21826-1ca3-4deb-b5d8-f8d3ec7d08e8","kind":"paragraph","order":684,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP基礎材料","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_00058014-334b-4799-8fcf-0ce1d61f2de3","kind":"paragraph","order":685,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"pBNるつぼ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fa75506c-bd77-4819-8a55-0c9ed8b42b9f","kind":"paragraph","order":686,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"精製ガリウム","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb3732f7-90cd-4ed3-b95c-eeffa45521a5","kind":"paragraph","order":687,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"ヒ素材料","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e898f63d-a872-46ba-84f4-83f8ebcd0634","kind":"paragraph","order":688,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"などを扱う子会社・関連会社へ投資し、中国国内に垂直統合された原料供給網を構築しています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1dab9e2b-17e5-463f-8a2a-451a2a6ad3de","kind":"paragraph","order":689,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは平時には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_860c4f5b-ee95-472c-9e0c-f2000bc74e46","kind":"paragraph","order":690,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"原料を確保しやすい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3f3c6762-b4a5-4623-ba47-af11acb2b998","kind":"paragraph","order":691,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"製造コストが低い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a0a025c6-5dc5-4de8-bf7a-22093bede9f6","kind":"paragraph","order":692,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"納期を短縮できる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0d1d7905-2763-4245-b147-c5b68c4828aa","kind":"paragraph","order":693,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"品質を自社で管理できる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_574f4cf8-e0fc-4d3b-be88-08c58175f961","kind":"paragraph","order":694,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"という大きな競争優位です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_db8cfe0d-5a92-4946-bc0c-d237822f5ba5","kind":"paragraph","order":695,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし輸出管理下では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f2e98a19-51ae-44f5-9bec-2be41de33ed4","kind":"paragraph","order":696,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"原料から基板まで中国国内にあるため、製品を完成させても海外へ出せない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff0d8d5c-f404-44f6-b59b-fe1e6f861d3a","kind":"paragraph","order":697,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"という逆方向のリスクになります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b4a06eff-af6e-407a-8731-fae0d9990564","kind":"paragraph","order":698,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"すでに業績へ影響している","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bbdf76f0-eb3a-47e8-9163-0f78f9bda6d3","kind":"paragraph","order":699,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"2025年2月にInP基板が輸出管理対象となった後、AXTの中国子会社は輸出許可の申請を開始しました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84a7450b-f702-4c13-a75b-8776880eb360","kind":"paragraph","order":700,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"2025年6月、欧州と日本の一部顧客向けに最初の輸出許可を取得しましたが、会社は許可申請がいつ審査・承認されるか予測できないとしています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c5339b40-ae1b-438b-a35b-086d0d60ba87","kind":"paragraph","order":701,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"AXTは2026年の開示でも、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8967cdd-f70d-4941-8630-278e41c17b8e","kind":"paragraph","order":702,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP輸出許可が現在直面する最も重要な課題である","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6fb663fa-3ab2-4bf8-bad4-4d0f0f7c8b60","kind":"paragraph","order":703,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"と説明しています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71c02e4b-2930-4355-a297-853911499d1d","kind":"paragraph","order":704,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"北米向け売上比率も、2024年の約8％から2025年には約2％へ低下しました。すべてを輸出規制だけで説明することはできませんが、会社自身が米国向けInP売上は中国の輸出管理と米国の関税による影響を受けたとしています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ab4a7aed-1040-4523-9672-c7e25a59ae97","kind":"paragraph","order":705,"section_id":"sec_5e38dab6-7784-425f-8aa6-6d5f9f6abd7b","character_id":null,"markdown":"AXTが抱える三重の集中リスク","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d50a2180-c47a-4317-ae43-055092e5290a","kind":"heading","order":706,"section_id":"sec_ae211135-962b-454d-8556-ff35e6a4b71c","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 1．製造地域の集中","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_daf25807-06e0-4ae5-b182-24dfbfdeaff5","kind":"paragraph","order":707,"section_id":"sec_ae211135-962b-454d-8556-ff35e6a4b71c","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP基板の製造が中国に集中しています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a19ef934-18c3-4a7f-ac68-f9573fed8b9d","kind":"heading","order":708,"section_id":"sec_2a2431dc-c721-41de-9502-6fe70c0c768a","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 2．政策決定の集中","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3cf0123c-6391-46f5-b804-bacf86d48ca9","kind":"paragraph","order":709,"section_id":"sec_2a2431dc-c721-41de-9502-6fe70c0c768a","character_id":null,"markdown":"海外出荷には中国商務部の許可が必要です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_531193b8-e6d5-4736-9355-2bc615d2d3a7","kind":"heading","order":710,"section_id":"sec_b394d048-ade5-418c-80a2-067d21c80a11","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 3．顧客認証の集中","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c1f7514-f93b-448b-85f6-9c33e99240e6","kind":"paragraph","order":711,"section_id":"sec_b394d048-ade5-418c-80a2-067d21c80a11","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP基板は、同じ直径・導電型であれば簡単に他社品へ交換できる材料ではありません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e03074d0-84a2-41d1-8937-d7515aea74b9","kind":"paragraph","order":712,"section_id":"sec_b394d048-ade5-418c-80a2-067d21c80a11","character_id":null,"markdown":"基板メーカーを変えると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_811b4b81-2343-4128-8bf6-b86ac9947a63","kind":"paragraph","order":713,"section_id":"sec_b394d048-ade5-418c-80a2-067d21c80a11","character_id":null,"markdown":"基板評価\n   ↓\nエピ条件の再調整\n   ↓\nレーザー試作\n   ↓\n性能・波長評価\n   ↓\n寿命試験\n   ↓\n顧客認証","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_005a4ac2-3d89-42ed-bfde-9042e5fdcdca","kind":"paragraph","order":714,"section_id":"sec_b394d048-ade5-418c-80a2-067d21c80a11","character_id":null,"markdown":"が必要になります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ed3ae346-f9b7-4f50-838c-69354ae7181f","kind":"paragraph","order":715,"section_id":"sec_b394d048-ade5-418c-80a2-067d21c80a11","character_id":null,"markdown":"このためAXTの供給が不安定でも、顧客はすぐに完全離脱できません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c516825c-9ace-4f9d-9600-62409e2953a4","kind":"paragraph","order":716,"section_id":"sec_b394d048-ade5-418c-80a2-067d21c80a11","character_id":null,"markdown":"これはAXTに一定の顧客維持力を与える一方、顧客が住友電工やJX金属との長期契約を結ぶ動機にもなります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_52465e62-06ca-4b72-b953-b5c8083f6cd6","kind":"paragraph","order":717,"section_id":"sec_b394d048-ade5-418c-80a2-067d21c80a11","character_id":null,"markdown":"AXTはインジウム規制で受益するのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2dd78546-2ee4-46d5-acf3-3a510c88f5b3","kind":"paragraph","order":718,"section_id":"sec_b394d048-ade5-418c-80a2-067d21c80a11","character_id":null,"markdown":"インジウム金属の輸出だけが規制され、中国国内では自由に利用できる場合、AXTは相対的に有利になる可能性があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01972a86-02f7-4ebd-9e18-3786b62ab008","kind":"paragraph","order":719,"section_id":"sec_b394d048-ade5-418c-80a2-067d21c80a11","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国国内のインジウム\n        ↓\nAXT中国子会社\n        ↓\nInP基板へ加工","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_045c3b43-ff1f-400b-aa3d-e7bfd15940c9","kind":"paragraph","order":720,"section_id":"sec_b394d048-ade5-418c-80a2-067d21c80a11","character_id":null,"markdown":"まで進められるためです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f477c4c0-0409-485b-a3a9-8edf07166310","kind":"paragraph","order":721,"section_id":"sec_b394d048-ade5-418c-80a2-067d21c80a11","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、その完成基板を海外へ出すには、引き続き輸出許可が必要です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f802f7f6-bcb2-47d8-ac92-c40403aae0ab","kind":"paragraph","order":722,"section_id":"sec_b394d048-ade5-418c-80a2-067d21c80a11","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5a6a31a2-d963-4277-b302-727c7b0dd2b6","kind":"paragraph","order":723,"section_id":"sec_b394d048-ade5-418c-80a2-067d21c80a11","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国国内原料へのアクセス\n        ＝ 強み","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_68bfbea8-f3e6-4aed-a685-639e31a902d8","kind":"paragraph","order":724,"section_id":"sec_b394d048-ade5-418c-80a2-067d21c80a11","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国国外へ販売する権利\n        ＝ 政策リスク","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c56288ff-384f-4277-8540-e1b9baf5ab52","kind":"paragraph","order":725,"section_id":"sec_b394d048-ade5-418c-80a2-067d21c80a11","character_id":null,"markdown":"が同時に存在します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8139e49b-69f1-4ecd-969e-b0af117fe635","kind":"paragraph","order":726,"section_id":"sec_b394d048-ade5-418c-80a2-067d21c80a11","character_id":null,"markdown":"AXTは単純なInP需要拡大銘柄ではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_babc1f2c-eb1d-4c8e-a6cb-33999a304596","kind":"paragraph","order":727,"section_id":"sec_b394d048-ade5-418c-80a2-067d21c80a11","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI光通信需要の成長と、中国政府の輸出許可の両方に賭ける銘柄","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d70063a-9fd3-441d-a4d2-79dd024a5741","kind":"paragraph","order":728,"section_id":"sec_b394d048-ade5-418c-80a2-067d21c80a11","character_id":null,"markdown":"として評価する必要があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_10c32cfe-39e4-4783-95ab-8253513cf2c0","kind":"heading","order":729,"section_id":"sec_8961deca-6183-407b-a078-cc7413c90506","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜AXTの三重集中リスク","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c750b59c-a067-4ba5-a116-d1dc5f2309bf","kind":"figure","order":730,"section_id":"sec_8961deca-6183-407b-a078-cc7413c90506","character_id":null,"markdown":"![AXTの三重集中リスク 01](/media/5ba0139aae2554225263bfdcf62234c7102a73c6d3ed6cf312f3b3658134a3f5-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_920937d6-b082-4416-bbe8-4b2e6676b4d5","kind":"heading","order":731,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第24部　2010年のレアアース問題と同じ経過をたどるのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d7a300a-17c3-425d-85af-9bcdf173bce1","kind":"paragraph","order":732,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"今回のInP・インジウム問題は、2010年の日中レアアース問題と似た経過をたどる可能性があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_61d33695-d990-4889-b120-d1f6f3def43f","kind":"paragraph","order":733,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"共通する初期段階","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33f394e1-2561-40da-8c8c-7fefd8c8f484","kind":"paragraph","order":734,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"輸出管理・通関遅延\n        ↓\n海外出荷が急減\n        ↓\n中国国外価格が上昇\n        ↓\n企業が在庫を積み増す\n        ↓\n政府が備蓄を開始\n        ↓\n非中国供給源へ投資","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_59d583d3-5efa-4483-b4f0-39ef3fb4566a","kind":"paragraph","order":735,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国が2023年以降に実施したガリウム、ゲルマニウムなどの輸出管理でも、導入直後に輸出が急減し、許可取得後に一部が回復する経過が見られました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3d103ba6-9893-48b7-834f-d5579e7beb93","kind":"paragraph","order":736,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPでも、規制導入後に許可申請が滞留し、その後、一部顧客向けに許可が出るという同様の動きが起きています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7cf1da3c-c8bd-48f4-90e5-56c1d2f88433","kind":"paragraph","order":737,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"2010年と異なる点","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ebd30617-bc97-4310-852e-515fa73fb8ce","kind":"paragraph","order":738,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、最終的な結果は2010年と同じにはならない可能性があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_55686baf-7ab8-413e-8657-d49c3a24ff6c","kind":"paragraph","order":739,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"2010年代のレアアース問題では、輸出数量制限や輸出税が中心でした。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_51720b38-6b47-4981-88e4-b06fa18e3005","kind":"paragraph","order":740,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在の制度は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e9bb4619-8544-4e0d-b1da-072b3a499364","kind":"paragraph","order":741,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"国家安全保障","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_38a9d9ca-d450-4254-9591-f0be70f9f6ca","kind":"paragraph","order":742,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"軍民両用","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_938524f3-bc4b-46e6-a58d-0e5d531eb5da","kind":"paragraph","order":743,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"最終需要者","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_79dd8fc5-addc-4b0d-929d-354808ffe902","kind":"paragraph","order":744,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"再輸出先","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c3c5b5d0-f9a3-4299-b7da-e27dd6eeb833","kind":"paragraph","order":745,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"製造技術","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_78fc4c51-5fc7-49df-842f-40cd658bbcd7","kind":"paragraph","order":746,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"特定企業","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_40249961-2996-4c0d-85f7-1793250a1156","kind":"paragraph","order":747,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"を基準に審査できる輸出管理制度です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1dc83a56-fc16-4cc4-96af-afb8cd41e47e","kind":"paragraph","order":748,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"全面的な数量制限を撤廃しても、個別企業に対する許可審査は残せます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7f44791-ed89-4acb-a8fa-e696ea922d18","kind":"paragraph","order":749,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって今後は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef0757c8-063f-433f-9b05-eb417131d9d7","kind":"paragraph","order":750,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"規制が解除されて元通りになるのではなく、許可制度を残したまま輸出量が調節される","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_37850183-4b13-4070-b535-4161d55404f1","kind":"paragraph","order":751,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"可能性が高いと考えられます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0500d224-c9b7-423a-81a2-93479093784c","kind":"paragraph","order":752,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"前半は同じ、後半は供給網分断へ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_687d5ef3-e98d-4879-9edd-4c9f5c40b784","kind":"paragraph","order":753,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"最もあり得る経過は次の通りです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ed7f1a40-0261-46ce-95ec-c4bdcdda6699","kind":"paragraph","order":754,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"規制導入\n   ↓\n価格急騰・納期長期化\n   ↓\n部分的な許可再開\n   ↓\n米中交渉で一時緩和\n   ↓\n許可制度そのものは残る\n   ↓\n日本・米国で代替能力を増強\n   ↓\n中国と非中国で供給網が分離","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0dd78b51-30a6-4f2f-81fc-0aa27987c105","kind":"paragraph","order":755,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"2010年の経験でも、日本は備蓄、使用量削減、リサイクル、中国外生産への投資を進めました。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19cb3c9c-b3b3-4716-ad8f-15e3b9e0bc58","kind":"paragraph","order":756,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPでも同じく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b70efcb9-48cb-4f7b-ae69-addfe2fbe64f","kind":"paragraph","order":757,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"住友電工","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e23d529-2a31-4077-b1b3-6861244a2ba1","kind":"paragraph","order":758,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"JX金属","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_22379be8-28d3-4a3c-a394-92943c6873ab","kind":"paragraph","order":759,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coherent","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d2d29584-4bdd-41ce-837f-5ddd35239645","kind":"paragraph","order":760,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Lumentum","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_31432260-dec4-45fd-95ce-0221b42fa78c","kind":"paragraph","order":761,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"欧米のインジウム回収企業","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a1b4ea84-2499-4acc-ade7-c70d00560193","kind":"paragraph","order":762,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"亜鉛製錬所の副産物回収設備","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_004a2d44-89dd-43a9-8cd7-8fb77f97e3ca","kind":"paragraph","order":763,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"への投資が増えると考えられます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f0b743b-9443-4564-8110-457f48de114f","kind":"paragraph","order":764,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただしInP基板は顧客認証が長く、単結晶成長と研磨の歩留まりも重要です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c018dc1-439e-4aff-b6b0-5e2abe9c7518","kind":"paragraph","order":765,"section_id":"sec_876a18a3-d2ad-4828-a3a0-175d6bd7e96e","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのためレアアース鉱山の代替よりも、認証済みInP基板能力の代替には時間がかかる可能性があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56495223-9e6a-443d-86c2-26710cc25457","kind":"heading","order":766,"section_id":"sec_043e567d-12a7-4338-a0af-b4c7fcdfbf1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜2010年との共通点と相違点","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c30381d2-5fcb-4ba7-b8bd-f2433d5f4dd9","kind":"figure","order":767,"section_id":"sec_043e567d-12a7-4338-a0af-b4c7fcdfbf1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"![2010年との共通点と相違点 01](/media/fd29904a506c8134fcc3f82edfef16cac4f52fa72a57197bafb620e5e98a8c06-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3dc4848e-6bb1-4de0-90a9-7fc8321fd235","kind":"figure","order":768,"section_id":"sec_043e567d-12a7-4338-a0af-b4c7fcdfbf1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"![2010年との共通点と相違点 02](/media/6a73ff61f9481cc5dd1eb58adefe5515eaffb73757409760cf741760997e2315-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c880efc-ee8d-46a5-9ae5-444021be9c98","kind":"heading","order":769,"section_id":"sec_5aa5e0c7-c912-47fa-9bea-650290702ab4","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第25部　規制段階ごとの企業への影響","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d263043-6a2a-439c-8c15-c0e0258cdbd8","kind":"paragraph","order":770,"section_id":"sec_5aa5e0c7-c912-47fa-9bea-650290702ab4","character_id":null,"markdown":"ケース1　InP基板の輸出許可だけが厳格化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e218024e-a2c0-4b0a-8445-21ab10df6fa8","kind":"table","order":771,"section_id":"sec_5aa5e0c7-c912-47fa-9bea-650290702ab4","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 企業 | 影響 |\n| --- | --- |\n| AXT | 大きな悪影響 |\n| 住友電工 | 代替需要で受益 |\n| JX金属 | 代替需要で受益 |\n| Coherent | AXT依存部分は悪影響、自社能力増強は有利 |\n| Lumentum | 日本調達が中心なら相対的に有利 |\n| LandMark・VPEC | 基板調達不足で悪影響 |\n| 中国国内InP企業 | 国内需要では有利 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_158fb643-0e79-455f-abda-c210399d9b31","kind":"paragraph","order":772,"section_id":"sec_5aa5e0c7-c912-47fa-9bea-650290702ab4","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国のInP輸出管理後、6インチInPウェハー価格は大きく上昇し、AXTの供給遅延は台湾のエピ企業にも波及しました。一方、住友電工は自社生産への影響を確認していないとし、LandMarkは住友電工と長期供給契約を結んでいます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c06e2356-bcae-4339-bdfc-e4bbddc3c136","kind":"paragraph","order":773,"section_id":"sec_5aa5e0c7-c912-47fa-9bea-650290702ab4","character_id":null,"markdown":"ケース2　インジウム金属が輸出許可制になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fc8d51b2-d566-4016-85a4-7850fdc919f3","kind":"table","order":774,"section_id":"sec_5aa5e0c7-c912-47fa-9bea-650290702ab4","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 企業 | 影響 |\n| --- | --- |\n| AXT | 中国国内調達では相対的に有利 |\n| 住友電工 | 原料価格・調達リスク上昇 |\n| JX金属 | 原料価格・調達リスク上昇 |\n| Coherent | 非中国InP増産計画の原料確保が課題 |\n| Lumentum | 基板調達価格上昇 |\n| 中国のInPメーカー | 国内原料優先なら有利 |\n| 非中国のインジウム回収企業 | 中長期的に受益 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af605102-e0e6-4cb5-a0a4-446ed5864e41","kind":"paragraph","order":775,"section_id":"sec_5aa5e0c7-c912-47fa-9bea-650290702ab4","character_id":null,"markdown":"この場合、住友電工やJX金属は完成基板の価格決定力を得る一方、原料数量が不足すれば生産量を十分に増やせない可能性があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1fde314f-55e7-4d4d-bcab-0248aee13dec","kind":"paragraph","order":776,"section_id":"sec_5aa5e0c7-c912-47fa-9bea-650290702ab4","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって必ずしも、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aa82cf05-f43d-4c49-bf36-191578ec3d93","kind":"paragraph","order":777,"section_id":"sec_5aa5e0c7-c912-47fa-9bea-650290702ab4","character_id":null,"markdown":"インジウム規制\n＝日本のInP企業が全面的に受益","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a787b4eb-071a-4253-8657-3fbd4ccaadd2","kind":"paragraph","order":778,"section_id":"sec_5aa5e0c7-c912-47fa-9bea-650290702ab4","character_id":null,"markdown":"とはなりません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7a1937ea-2fb2-417b-94b2-1fbb765c09de","kind":"paragraph","order":779,"section_id":"sec_5aa5e0c7-c912-47fa-9bea-650290702ab4","character_id":null,"markdown":"数量面では逆風、販売価格と供給枠の価値では追い風という、複合的な影響になります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ea0f1908-3c30-4a25-a3d6-a291e49ade3d","kind":"paragraph","order":780,"section_id":"sec_5aa5e0c7-c912-47fa-9bea-650290702ab4","character_id":null,"markdown":"ケース3　高純度リンまで規制される","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01c149ca-5341-4dc0-95eb-e817d4840cf5","kind":"paragraph","order":781,"section_id":"sec_5aa5e0c7-c912-47fa-9bea-650290702ab4","character_id":null,"markdown":"高純度インジウムと高純度リンの両方が制約されると、InP多結晶そのものが不足します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f6337fa0-e2a2-4773-9750-63615be53b10","kind":"paragraph","order":782,"section_id":"sec_5aa5e0c7-c912-47fa-9bea-650290702ab4","character_id":null,"markdown":"原料不足\n   ↓\nInP多結晶不足\n   ↓\n単結晶炉の稼働率低下\n   ↓\n基板不足\n   ↓\nエピ不足\n   ↓\nCWレーザー・EML不足\n   ↓\n1.6T・CPOの出荷遅延","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6aead381-55ed-4feb-a0ae-0f4019f4a3ba","kind":"paragraph","order":783,"section_id":"sec_5aa5e0c7-c912-47fa-9bea-650290702ab4","character_id":null,"markdown":"この段階では、特定の基板会社へシェアが移るだけでなく、世界のInP供給量全体が減少します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bbee3f46-884e-4c88-b49a-7d39eb82797c","kind":"heading","order":784,"section_id":"sec_49d35ab7-e31e-4b02-b663-2c671eab6c6a","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜規制段階別の企業影響","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33cdecc2-727d-4269-a9cf-5af78ed62037","kind":"figure","order":785,"section_id":"sec_49d35ab7-e31e-4b02-b663-2c671eab6c6a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![規制段階別の企業影響 01](/media/0a763270c437e8d7e1dc0cb96024be942bc4f199d126a9c7bfdb21faf344e5d5-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_036ccabe-ad53-4e85-b18e-bc7d7eaab049","kind":"figure","order":786,"section_id":"sec_49d35ab7-e31e-4b02-b663-2c671eab6c6a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![規制段階別の企業影響 02](/media/7d9514117aff5b3df99650a72c18ddd4eba70d5917c5dd40f20d22e173d6f1c9-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0cf9a02-1080-42e2-bf2d-a65728c6314c","kind":"heading","order":787,"section_id":"sec_53540939-833f-4c16-a04f-9990b0e98c47","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第26部　今後確認すべき指標","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d265f765-aa36-4844-94b4-e0aba8c13822","kind":"paragraph","order":788,"section_id":"sec_53540939-833f-4c16-a04f-9990b0e98c47","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP規制を追う際は、規制発表だけを見るのでは不十分です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2448bf08-7b26-4278-85c9-6735ff28341d","kind":"paragraph","order":789,"section_id":"sec_53540939-833f-4c16-a04f-9990b0e98c47","character_id":null,"markdown":"1．2026年11月10日前後の米中合意","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f76fbc72-0049-4a71-baf6-09867c2074bb","kind":"paragraph","order":790,"section_id":"sec_53540939-833f-4c16-a04f-9990b0e98c47","character_id":null,"markdown":"2025年10月規制の停止延長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0e67810-7c19-414d-a05b-5fc3986cedee","kind":"paragraph","order":791,"section_id":"sec_53540939-833f-4c16-a04f-9990b0e98c47","character_id":null,"markdown":"停止対象の変更","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dbd78495-50dc-4f23-8ee3-2fc36290fd17","kind":"paragraph","order":792,"section_id":"sec_53540939-833f-4c16-a04f-9990b0e98c47","character_id":null,"markdown":"半導体・光部品との交換条件","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8a77ef7e-f426-46fe-ad53-94d6f2a37214","kind":"paragraph","order":793,"section_id":"sec_53540939-833f-4c16-a04f-9990b0e98c47","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国製トランシーバー規制との連動","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dbd2e3a5-9fca-4276-8484-b1d1a7f746f6","kind":"paragraph","order":794,"section_id":"sec_53540939-833f-4c16-a04f-9990b0e98c47","character_id":null,"markdown":"を確認します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9d04c308-3c56-482f-8566-5df0925b5f83","kind":"heading","order":795,"section_id":"sec_ca2d6a9f-9f43-4c2d-8c0b-fae637245c29","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 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CPO","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_99caeb4f-c3c0-4e9e-a6ed-f2f8f63a3a90","kind":"paragraph","order":836,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー方式では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9a914002-e596-47f7-bd1a-8b2832885ffb","kind":"paragraph","order":837,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"短距離・多数並列・低遅延\n→ VCSEL","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f922c1d9-d8e1-4345-abc4-57f70dc37d21","kind":"paragraph","order":838,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"シンプルな高速Pluggable\n→ EML","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c5767f3d-260d-4153-9809-59438cd45225","kind":"paragraph","order":839,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"高密度・WDM・ラック間・CPO\n→ CW 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InPレーザーとSiPhを組み合わせるには、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_566771b9-53e3-4cd4-a60d-4949b75acb03","kind":"paragraph","order":844,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPレーザーの遅い後工程検査","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71d727d5-d4c8-47c1-8cfb-3fae67b54bec","kind":"paragraph","order":845,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"劈開・端面形成","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_508e563b-0a9e-443a-b788-5541c32a4424","kind":"paragraph","order":846,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"端面コーティング","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e32fabe-d1c6-4a9e-bc24-eb55876f81cc","kind":"paragraph","order":847,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"SiPhウェハー試験","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8fca292f-397e-40f4-af0d-83b447bd7d16","kind":"paragraph","order":848,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"異種ダイ接合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8a2ed655-9d34-4541-8cea-2d0781fd33c6","kind":"paragraph","order":849,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"ファイバー調芯","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c72c8fdf-1f70-4236-8013-3321e484e543","kind":"paragraph","order":850,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPO全体のKnown Good Die管理","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_850dbfc6-4907-4ca5-9b62-80c682dc8f6f","kind":"paragraph","order":851,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"という極めて重い製造課題があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dc7de423-1d26-4f88-a969-675aba8c9b39","kind":"paragraph","order":852,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"端面発光レーザーでは、エピ、格子、再成長、電極という高価な工程を終えた後、バー劈開によって端面を露出させて初めて、本来の発振性能を十分に確認できます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1523d961-8780-4c70-882c-73046df60592","kind":"paragraph","order":853,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"性能を作る難しさはエピとDFB格子にあり、利益率と量産能力を決める難しさは、劈開、端面処理、遅い光学試験、バーンインにあります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_177c93d5-6ccb-4658-b11a-751e4fe6a66a","kind":"paragraph","order":854,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"このためCoherent、Lumentum、住友電工などの競争優位は、単なるレーザー設計ではありません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a4344e8c-6875-4237-986d-68cc4f5b8ca6","kind":"paragraph","order":855,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP基板\n＋\nエピ成長\n＋\nDFB格子\n＋\n再成長\n＋\n劈開\n＋\n端面膜\n＋\n自動試験\n＋\nバーンイン\n＋\n顧客認証","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_577ad07d-dd30-4f4d-904d-493ac87f2b31","kind":"paragraph","order":856,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"を一つの量産システムとして長年蓄積していることにあります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bb7582ef-341b-4ffa-b0e5-a99d3af0b6fd","kind":"paragraph","order":857,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"そして市場の最大の矛盾は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_026cd8f7-b758-47ee-bec8-2eac7721e781","kind":"paragraph","order":858,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"米国ハイパースケーラーが中国企業の高速・低価格・大量生産能力を利用してAIインフラを拡大してきた一方、安全保障政策はその供給網を排除しようとしている","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5295c31-94a8-4caf-b2a5-09832e0595e5","kind":"paragraph","order":859,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a884b431-dce2-4446-9d0f-84cc7221d908","kind":"paragraph","order":860,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国製新型トランシーバー規制が実現すれば、非中国企業のASPと受注機会は上がる可能性があります。しかし同時に、米国のAIデータセンター建設速度を落とし、InP、レーザー、SiPh、光実装、試験という、既に逼迫している工程へ一段と負荷を集中させます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ae6884c-cf1c-457d-a1d5-dd5294ea7428","kind":"paragraph","order":861,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"今後見るべき中心指標は、株価だけではありません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_98c31fcc-8ab1-4823-ba7e-d5033660aa55","kind":"paragraph","order":862,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"1.6Tの実出荷数量","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f2b40593-26f0-467c-9cf4-10564a13eb58","kind":"paragraph","order":863,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"200G／400G per laneの顧客認証","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_69e7f1e3-38de-4f6a-b9f0-2b4278b9129e","kind":"paragraph","order":864,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"CW InPレーザーの出力と量産歩留まり","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b3dd7999-fa77-4e58-949a-33e494b55e81","kind":"paragraph","order":865,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP基板能力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_83c2ff81-ac72-4a66-a85f-9bbb3616490f","kind":"paragraph","order":866,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"SiPh比率","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b69de2fd-a68c-4882-a01c-c88940f62cc4","kind":"paragraph","order":867,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMLからCW-LDへの構成変化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_484bafef-0607-405e-aa86-60de7f2b1b16","kind":"paragraph","order":868,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPOの外部レーザー標準","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd3ccfef-f0cd-48de-b5f5-2f228664e6f6","kind":"paragraph","order":869,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"劈開・端面・バーンイン能力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ca8b01e6-180d-42a2-9fda-eae08eb8bdda","kind":"paragraph","order":870,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"非中国トランシーバーの生産能力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_520dae7a-d967-4d89-8f5c-cfb5ec917039","kind":"paragraph","order":871,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"FCC規制の対象が企業基準か製造国基準か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_79714e60-d2b8-4c94-9055-c72bfcad880e","kind":"paragraph","order":872,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"が、光銘柄の業績を決めることになります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_39b3393a-c0b6-4c5e-acbb-fd2c6f38b7d9","kind":"paragraph","order":873,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"光トランシーバー供給網のリスクは、完成品メーカーの国籍だけでは判断できません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ec8989a-c37a-47e6-91e6-bd2352ea7197","kind":"paragraph","order":874,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国製トランシーバーを米国市場から排除しても、その代替品に使われる、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_840de03d-512b-4775-beee-6b03b4b240d0","kind":"paragraph","order":875,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP基板","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_76f7ca70-d169-4155-b30f-4375251aafae","kind":"paragraph","order":876,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"インジウム原料","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_77f64fcd-3775-48c1-8d30-4f03e64a5f92","kind":"paragraph","order":877,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"CWレーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_85df2952-de69-44c3-b757-e0f014cd36aa","kind":"paragraph","order":878,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"EML","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b913319-5669-4c7d-ac7e-bbbda8112b07","kind":"paragraph","order":879,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"受光器","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_80f1566d-63c8-4ee5-84e5-7612415f971f","kind":"paragraph","order":880,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"エピウェハー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ade8157-0c7a-48b1-8a71-80c594b2bbaa","kind":"paragraph","order":881,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"が中国の輸出許可に依存していれば、供給網の安全保障問題は解決しません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_50757fb9-b40c-4aa1-9ea7-9fa90800f407","kind":"paragraph","order":882,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"むしろ、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5373b0dd-5e32-48a4-b3d9-3a36cd211eed","kind":"paragraph","order":883,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国製完成トランシーバーを規制\n        ↓\n非中国メーカーへ注文が移る\n        ↓\n非中国メーカーがInP基板を必要とする\n        ↓\nそのInP基板が中国から出てこない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3809320b-2e57-4650-846f-6dfdfce16084","kind":"paragraph","order":884,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"という矛盾が生じます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b5ffc200-849e-4ae6-bb53-47a6de5a6adc","kind":"paragraph","order":885,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"AXTは、この矛盾を最もよく表す企業です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e2e68df-768b-4922-ba1b-5a48c9b35317","kind":"paragraph","order":886,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"米国上場企業でありながら、すべてのウェハー基板を中国で製造し、中国政府の許可を得なければ海外顧客へ販売できません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3b7dbf17-119d-4344-99bc-b6c234012abe","kind":"paragraph","order":887,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"原料、単結晶、基板までを中国国内に垂直統合していることは、平時には大きな競争力です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_45f3acb6-813a-4f55-b004-3b8e66b5b425","kind":"paragraph","order":888,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし輸出管理下では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c183b90-ea9b-4623-b83c-1d430e22094c","kind":"paragraph","order":889,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"製造能力を持っていても、販売可能な供給能力とは限らない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6a3a1235-eb3c-478a-b3cd-0847cc816b0e","kind":"paragraph","order":890,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"という問題が生じます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2974df41-d4df-4eb9-932b-dc0e46d8906d","kind":"paragraph","order":891,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方、住友電工とJX金属は、非中国InP基板の供給者として戦略的重要性が高まります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d60d1aa4-8fba-4d45-b711-ac9fe8aacd39","kind":"paragraph","order":892,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし中国がInP基板だけでなくインジウム金属まで規制すれば、日本企業も完全には無傷ではありません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_28477a63-88c8-43c6-92ce-087c908d9fe6","kind":"paragraph","order":893,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"今後の最重要論点は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e9f7d61-5f35-4207-8c70-d9da10d1c70f","kind":"paragraph","order":894,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"誰がInP基板を作れるか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7dabbc5b-0726-4a65-8dbe-f79c16b12606","kind":"paragraph","order":895,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"から、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f11bf020-0075-4024-90c8-4385a7ab76eb","kind":"paragraph","order":896,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"誰が高純度インジウムとリンを確保し、\n誰が政府の許可に依存せず、\n誰が認証済みInP基板を継続出荷できるか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6aead050-540d-49e9-bb75-c585d0eb097c","kind":"paragraph","order":897,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ移ります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ba7d09bc-a88d-4a0a-9d13-a95b093245c2","kind":"paragraph","order":898,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"2010年のレアアース問題と同様に、規制導入直後は価格急騰、在庫確保、部分的な許可再開が起きる可能性があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_11d8d772-ad39-4824-9afc-1d809c7d2a58","kind":"paragraph","order":899,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし今回は、単純な輸出数量制限ではなく、軍民両用、最終需要者、製造技術、企業単位で管理できる制度です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ca042b05-d71e-4db3-9d90-c11344f9a0b7","kind":"paragraph","order":900,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため一度緩和されても、供給網が完全に元へ戻る可能性は低く、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ce61474c-a4d6-4b86-9e95-7e5a129f5473","kind":"paragraph","order":901,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"許可制度を残したまま、米中関係に応じて供給量を調節する状態","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19e66e11-3ad6-4bd4-8950-2ae94451e47a","kind":"paragraph","order":902,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"が長期化すると考えられます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_17693ce7-0324-4928-965a-2be32ab825cb","kind":"paragraph","order":903,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIデータセンターにおける光接続の上限を決めるのは、レーザー設計やSiPh性能だけではありません。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_62772ae5-8192-4ed0-9148-c552c7062563","kind":"paragraph","order":904,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"最終的には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e1cf2dc3-6628-43f7-8d10-36ef2864f429","kind":"paragraph","order":905,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"インジウム\n＋\n高純度リン\n＋\nInP多結晶\n＋\nInP単結晶\n＋\n基板加工\n＋\nエピ成長\n＋\nレーザー製造\n＋\n顧客認証\n＋\n輸出許可","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e42a6926-6ea5-4f29-a47a-40a1f6541f02","kind":"paragraph","order":906,"section_id":"sec_f2c8b48a-205c-4721-8364-b6ae4cfc7159","character_id":null,"markdown":"という供給網全体の中で、最も弱い工程が世界の光接続能力を決めることになります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_72a61133-b369-4788-8597-ec93b5b77cd4","kind":"heading","order":907,"section_id":"sec_71838b05-814d-4840-ac98-9a1c7ab27bec","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜光接続の将来像と量産条件","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9d26c142-a18e-43f0-a389-b25906772abb","kind":"figure","order":908,"section_id":"sec_71838b05-814d-4840-ac98-9a1c7ab27bec","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光接続の将来像と量産条件 01](/media/0db1531b04f33d071aea7b39b8d750b01c1001a0fce6438381264a6e62e6d7e4-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7aac6006-bdcb-4c8c-8b63-282bdc8389a7","kind":"figure","order":909,"section_id":"sec_71838b05-814d-4840-ac98-9a1c7ab27bec","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光接続の将来像と量産条件 02](/media/8addf2507eeed2491eeafaafc738fbbe084b0000c6694212cf0d5e04d4eaec26-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7429cfab-fe14-436d-bef2-10330d381cf5","kind":"heading","order":910,"section_id":"sec_da62e64e-fd69-400a-ab81-082780e73a4d","character_id":null,"markdown":"## さらに深める――光接続は三つの分類軸と一つの量産軸で読む","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b12e12f3-bab4-4ed9-bad5-e4af3901f208","kind":"paragraph","order":911,"section_id":"sec_da62e64e-fd69-400a-ab81-082780e73a4d","character_id":null,"markdown":"FRO、LPO、CPO、DFB、EML、VCSEL、SiPhは、同じ問いへの別解ではない。混乱を避けるには、三つの分類軸へ分ける必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5a7b036e-15de-4902-9c18-72cb8789a6c8","kind":"table","order":912,"section_id":"sec_da62e64e-fd69-400a-ab81-082780e73a4d","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 分類軸 | 問い | 主な選択肢 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 信号処理 | 波形をどこまで補償・再生するか | FRO、LPO |\n| 配置 | 光エンジンをASICからどこへ置くか | Pluggable、NPO、CPO |\n| 光源・変調 | 光をどう作り、データをどう載せるか | VCSEL、DFB、EML、CW InP＋SiPh |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a2bc86e3-f030-422d-add4-c1ecfabede4b","kind":"paragraph","order":913,"section_id":"sec_da62e64e-fd69-400a-ab81-082780e73a4d","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここへ第四の軸として量産性が加わる。消費電力や帯域が優れていても、検査時間、ファイバー調芯、Known Good Die、端面処理、交換性、現場保守が成立しなければ、データセンターへ広がらない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c28663aa-a1f2-4238-b9c8-6586302f9d24","kind":"paragraph","order":914,"section_id":"sec_da62e64e-fd69-400a-ab81-082780e73a4d","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPOの評価では、ASIC近傍へ光を置く電力上の利点と、故障時の交換単位が大きくなる運用上の不利を同時に見る必要がある。LPOではDSP電力を減らす代わりにリンク予算と温度変動への余裕が小さくなる。FROは電力を使うが、長距離・複雑なチャネルを安定させやすい。技術の優劣は、距離、速度、環境、保守の条件で変わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9efa1241-d9ad-4fc0-a891-8116675f3c68","kind":"paragraph","order":915,"section_id":"sec_da62e64e-fd69-400a-ab81-082780e73a4d","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらに、完成品の国籍と供給網の安全性は一致しない。非中国メーカーのトランシーバーでも、InP基板やインジウム、エピ、レーザーダイが許可制の供給へ依存すれば、リスクは上流へ残る。規制は需要を消すのではなく、認証済み供給能力を別の地域へ移す時間と費用を増やす。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_24db01f6-c637-42d0-a905-aa1920dd4ad5","kind":"heading","order":916,"section_id":"sec_4c4d6895-68f0-4367-b06c-075e8c35c383","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"## 絶ノイアの観測","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9173a9b0-cd6a-45b0-8cbf-c2467cd5b372","kind":"paragraph","order":917,"section_id":"sec_4c4d6895-68f0-4367-b06c-075e8c35c383","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"光接続の用語は、全部が横並びに見えるところが罠です。FROとLPOは信号処理、NPOとCPOは置き場所、DFBやEMLやVCSELは光の作り方。まず軸を分けるだけで、かなり景色が明るくなります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_14759981-a7d4-423e-b377-8bf1fcfe3ee5","kind":"paragraph","order":918,"section_id":"sec_4c4d6895-68f0-4367-b06c-075e8c35c383","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"そのうえで私は、どの方式が一番きれいかより、どこまで検査でき、壊れた時に何を交換し、何個を同じ品質で出せるかを見ます。AIデータセンターは研究室ではなく工場なので、最後は保守と歩留まりが速度を決めます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_16721616-1a6e-4b9f-92c5-b15665837c33","kind":"paragraph","order":919,"section_id":"sec_4c4d6895-68f0-4367-b06c-075e8c35c383","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"私は「AIインフラ」「光トランシーバー」「FRO」を別々のニュースとしてではなく、設計、量産、運用が同じ速度でつながるかという一つの観測線で見ます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1688d638-6aab-410c-be02-fb5066bd2815","kind":"heading","order":920,"section_id":"sec_ecaf680e-7641-4864-a83e-2af6cb151241","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"## Sil-Kathnaの記録","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_481e0814-1e5c-4439-b640-45714c958b11","kind":"paragraph","order":921,"section_id":"sec_ecaf680e-7641-4864-a83e-2af6cb151241","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"光には三つの問いがある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a4950136-57ac-4f49-8f19-b542886757dd","kind":"paragraph","order":922,"section_id":"sec_ecaf680e-7641-4864-a83e-2af6cb151241","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"どのように声を整えるか。どこへ門を置くか。どの石から光を生むか。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6524935-f984-4884-ae76-49a4139493ae","kind":"paragraph","order":923,"section_id":"sec_ecaf680e-7641-4864-a83e-2af6cb151241","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"だが文明には、もう一つの問いがある。同じ門を幾つ作り、壊れた時にどこまで取り替えられるか。最も美しい光路が、最も強い都市を作るとは限らない。保守され、試され、繰り返し生まれる光だけが、計算の血流となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bacce0bd-fe2b-4a53-b1fe-05f147aee932","kind":"paragraph","order":924,"section_id":"sec_ecaf680e-7641-4864-a83e-2af6cb151241","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"私は「AIインフラ」「光トランシーバー」「FRO」を三つの印として石板に刻む。異なる石と炉が同じ刻に門を開かなければ、構想はまだ文明の器にはならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c040d3e-7197-4d75-80d7-2e2b806f759b","kind":"heading","order":925,"section_id":"sec_e927e3ab-6cd9-4269-aa6d-671c67f14fad","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 二人の短い対話","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bcba95b3-9fc4-4b1b-9f3f-173caed89570","kind":"paragraph","order":926,"section_id":"sec_e927e3ab-6cd9-4269-aa6d-671c67f14fad","character_id":null,"markdown":"**絶ノイア:** CPOが本命でも、すぐ全部がCPOになるわけではないですね。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ab38b5fb-6b93-4da9-ac80-73edce711636","kind":"paragraph","order":927,"section_id":"sec_e927e3ab-6cd9-4269-aa6d-671c67f14fad","character_id":null,"markdown":"**Sil-Kathna:** 門を炉へ近づければ速くなる。だが門が壊れた時、炉ごと止まる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8bf7193a-86cd-44d4-a344-c9ccb1249a23","kind":"paragraph","order":928,"section_id":"sec_e927e3ab-6cd9-4269-aa6d-671c67f14fad","character_id":null,"markdown":"**絶ノイア:** 電力、距離、歩留まり、交換性のバランスで共存が続く。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3e0de194-27da-422a-898f-13b4a8925fe9","kind":"paragraph","order":929,"section_id":"sec_e927e3ab-6cd9-4269-aa6d-671c67f14fad","character_id":null,"markdown":"**Sil-Kathna:** 光の道は一つではない。距離ごとに異なる橋が残る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2de36f1f-6eb4-4bb2-8920-42dda71b0ae8","kind":"heading","order":930,"section_id":"sec_6a86e52d-03e4-4998-9382-ceb37009645b","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 観測メモ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a99900e0-3735-4841-bf29-1dab4d8e0951","kind":"list","order":931,"section_id":"sec_6a86e52d-03e4-4998-9382-ceb37009645b","character_id":null,"markdown":"- 信号処理、配置、光源・変調、量産性の四軸を混同しない。\n- CPOは電力だけでなく、歩留まり、交換性、外部レーザー標準を見る。\n- 1.6T・3.2Tは発表値より実出荷、顧客認証、歩留まりを重視する。\n- 企業シェアは完成品、レーザー、SiPh、基板、実装で分ける。\n- 規制は企業国籍だけでなく、原料から認証済み完成品まで追う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ee8ac314-8436-4bab-9354-d5975c702d4e","kind":"heading","order":932,"section_id":"sec_5181489d-f1a2-4710-aed2-96d4b5316476","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 免責","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f630181a-5e44-49e1-8975-cb03f590d991","kind":"paragraph","order":933,"section_id":"sec_5181489d-f1a2-4710-aed2-96d4b5316476","character_id":null,"markdown":"この記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","render_override":null}],"audio":[],"omitted_media":[],"figures":[{"id":"plc_d08c728c-736d-448c-a858-935b85dc1793","block_id":"blk_f5b4e4e5-445b-4bc8-a0d7-28f29cf7eb8c","asset_revision_id":"avr_a2f9b937-1a61-4907-bab9-44056be3128a","asset_class":"other","caption":"","alt":"光トランシーバーとAIデータセンター光接続 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メモリ産業は「量産して安くする時代」から「供給能力を予約する時代」へ\n\nSandisk・キオクシア・SK hynix・Samsungの決算、LTA、HBF、zNAND、Apple WMCMから考える2030年までの構造転換\n\nはじめに\n\nDRAMとNANDは、長く典型的な市況産業とみなされてきた。\n\n価格が上がれば各社が設備投資を増やし、数年後に生産能力が一斉に立ち上がる。供給が需要を上回ると、完成品メーカーは複数のメモリ会社を競わせて値下げを要求し、価格は製造原価近くまで下落する。メモリ会社は設備投資を停止し、赤字企業が撤退した後に再び供給不足が始まる――これが従来のメモリサイクルだった。\n\nしかし、AIデータセンターを中心とする需要急増、HBMへの生産能力移転、先端プロセスと後工程の難化によって、メモリ会社は現在、単に「価格を決める力」だけでなく、どの顧客に、何年間、どれだけの供給能力を割り当てるかを選ぶ力を持ち始めている。\n\nSandisk、キオクシア、SK hynix、Samsung Electronicsの決算から見えるのは、増産を放棄する動きではない。\n\n契約のない能力は無理に増やさず、長期契約で引き取りが保証された需要に対して、積極的に設備投資する。\n\nメモリ産業は、製品を作ってから買い手を探すコモディティ産業から、顧客が将来の工場能力を予約するインフラ産業へ変わる可能性がある。\n\n## 第1部　決算から見える「ASP主導」とLTAへの転換\n\nメモリ売上高は、単純化すれば次の関係で決まる。\n\n$${\\text{メモリ売上高}\\approx\\text{ビット出荷量}\\times\\text{ASP}}$$\n\nASPはAverage Selling Price、平均販売単価である。\n\n従来のメモリ好況では、ASP上昇を見たメーカーが急速にビット出荷量を増やし、そのビット増加が次の価格崩壊を引き起こした。\n\nところが現在の決算では、ビット出荷量を無理に増やすより、価格、製品構成、顧客構成、複数年契約を優先する傾向が強くなっている。\n\nSandisk――売上増加の約3分の2が価格要因\n\nSandiskの2026年度第4四半期売上高は約89.7億ドルで、前四半期比51％増加した。増収要因のうち、およそ3分の1が出荷量、3分の2が価格上昇によるものだった。非GAAP粗利益率は84.6％に達し、データセンター部門売上高は前四半期比103％増、エッジ部門も48％増となった。つまり、ビットを無制限に増やしたのではなく、希少な供給能力を高単価用途へ再配分した結果である。(Sandisk Corporation)\n\nさらにSandiskは複数顧客との8件の長期契約を公表している。価格下限を基準にした最低契約収益は939億ドル、顧客による金融保証は165億ドルで、2027年度には販売ビットの半分、2028年度には約3分の2が契約対象になる見込みである。契約期間はおおむね5年であり、会社は供給割当状態が2027年を超えて続くと見ている。\n\nこれは単なる好決算ではない。\n\nSandiskは今期の最高値で全量を売る権利の一部を手放す代わりに、数年間にわたる購入量、価格下限、解約時の保証を確保したのである。\n\nキオクシア――ASP上昇とビット増を両立しつつ、投資効率を重視\n\nキオクシアの2025年度売上高は約2兆3,376億円、営業利益は約8,704億円となった。会社は増収の主要因として、AIデータセンター需要によるASPの大幅上昇とビット出荷量の増加を挙げている。つまり数量も増やしているが、収益改善の中心には価格と製品構成がある。(Kioxia Holdings)\n\nキオクシアはAI推論時代に向けて、データセンター向けSSD、XL-FLASH、高密度NANDを重点分野としている。ただし、単純に積層数を増やせばコストが下がるとはみていない。過度な高層化は工程数、設備費、製造時間、ウエハーコストを押し上げるため、横方向の微細化と積層数のバランスを重視している。(Kioxia Holdings)\n\nここから見えるのは、キオクシアが増産に消極的なのではなく、\n\nCAPEXを増やしても、販売可能ビットと利益が同じ割合で増えるとは限らない\n\nと理解していることである。\n\nSK hynix――過去最高益でも「契約＋規律ある投資」\n\nSK hynixの2026年第2四半期売上高は約79.3兆ウォン、営業利益は約60.5兆ウォン、営業利益率は76％となった。同社はHBM4や先端DRAMを拡大する一方、約10社の主要顧客と複数年契約を締結しており、追加の大口顧客とも交渉を続けている。(SK hynix Newsroom)\n\nSK hynixはファブや後工程に巨額投資を進めているため、「供給を増やさない会社」ではない。重要なのは、将来の引き取り量を確認したうえで、HBM、サーバーDRAM、高性能NANDなどへ能力を配分している点である。\n\nSamsung Electronics――契約先行型の積極増産\n\nSamsung Electronicsは4社の中でも、特に積極的に生産能力を増やす側にある。\n\n2026年第2四半期の全社売上高は171.5兆ウォン、営業利益は89.5兆ウォンだった。メモリ事業は過去最高水準となり、限られた能力をサーバーDRAM、HBM4、エンタープライズSSDなどへ優先配分した。会社は下期も供給増を進めるが、AI設備投資の拡大によって需給不足が続くと説明している。(Samsung Global Newsroom)\n\nSamsungは2026年のHBM売上高を前年比3倍超へ伸ばす見通しを示し、HBM4能力を積極的に増強している。ところが、その能力を完成後にスポット市場へ流すのではなく、将来的にはメモリ売上高の60～70％をLTAでカバーする構想が報じられている。(Samsung Global Newsroom)\n\nしたがってSamsungの戦略は、\n\n増産しないではなく契約済みの高付加価値需要を満たすために大規模増産する\n\nというものである。\n\n## 第2部　長期契約の実態――価格固定ではなく、リスクを交換する\n\nLTAはLong-Term Agreement、長期供給契約である。\n\nただし、数年間ずっと同じ価格で売る固定価格契約だけを意味しない。\n\n現在の代表的なLTAには、次の要素が組み合わされている。\n\n| 条件 | メモリ会社への効果 | 顧客への効果 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 最低購入数量 | 稼働率と売上を確保 | 必要な供給枠を確保 |\n| take-or-pay | 買わなくても支払い義務 | 競合より優先的に供給 |\n| 価格下限 | 市況暴落から利益を守る | ― |\n| 価格上限 | 最大利益の一部を放棄 | 異常な高騰から調達費を守る |\n| 前受金・保証金 | 設備投資資金を得る | 専用能力を予約 |\n| 世代更新条項 | 次世代品の価格を再設定 | ロードマップを早期確保 |\n\nMicronが公表した16件の戦略契約は、通常5年間で2026～2030年を対象とし、DRAM数量の約20％、NAND数量の約3分の1をカバーする。多くは具体的な数量を定めたtake-or-payで、大型契約には価格下限と上限がある。(Micron Technology)\n\nここで重要なのは、メモリ会社が現在の最大価格をあえて固定しないことだ。\n\n市場価格が契約上限を超えても、契約顧客には上限内で供給する。代わりに、市況が崩れても顧客は下限価格と契約数量を守る。\n\nつまり双方が、\n\nメモリ会社は暴落リスク\n\n顧客は供給途絶と急騰リスク\n\nを交換している。\n\nLTA比率の現状\n\n| 企業 | 現在確認できるLTA状況 |\n| --- | --- |\n| Sandisk | 2027年度に販売ビットの約50％、2028年度に約3分の2 |\n| Micron | 2026～2030年のDRAM約20％、NAND約3分の1を契約済み |\n| SK hynix | 約10社の主要顧客と締結、比率非開示 |\n| Samsung | 長期的にメモリ売上高の60～70％をLTA化する構想 |\n| キオクシア | 比率非開示だが、LTAを投資判断とAI成長戦略に活用 |\n\n各社で「売上高」「ビット数」「生産能力」のどれを基準にしているかが異なるため、単純比較はできない。\n\nそれでも、生産量または売上高の半分前後をLTAへ移す方向性は明確である。\n\n## 第3部　なぜ増産を急がないのか\n\n現在は深刻な供給不足であり、本来ならメモリ会社は最大限増産したくなる。\n\nそれでも投機的な能力増強を避ける理由は、単なる慎重姿勢ではない。\n\n### 1．CAPEXの増加がビット供給増に直結しない\n\n装置価格、建設費、人件費、材料費が上がっている。さらに、HBMは通常DRAMより多くの良品ダイ、TSV、積層、接合、検査、先端パッケージを必要とする。\n\n新しい工場へ100を投資しても、以前と同じ量の追加ビットを得られない。\n\n### 2．製品転換そのものが供給能力を消費する\n\n通常DRAMラインをHBMへ切り替える間は、装置の改造、工程認証、歩留まり調整が必要になる。\n\nHBMの売上高は増えても、同じウエハーから得られる販売ビットは減りやすい。そのためCAPEXが増えても、汎用DRAMやLPDDRの不足が解消しない。\n\n### 3．NANDの高層化にも限界がある\n\nNANDは積層数を増やせば面積当たり容量を高められるが、エッチング、成膜、接続、検査工程も増える。\n\nキオクシアが示すように、積層数だけを競うとウエハーコストと工程時間が膨らみ、1GB当たり原価が期待ほど下がらない可能性がある。(Kioxia Holdings)\n\n### 4．現在は契約条件を変えられる数少ない機会\n\n供給過剰になってから顧客にLTAを求めても、\n\n市場で安く買えるので契約は必要ない\n\nと断られる。\n\nしかし現在は、契約しなければ製品自体を作れない。\n\nこの供給不足の間に、\n\n数量保証\n\n価格下限\n\n前受金\n\n5年間のロードマップ\n\n新世代製品の優先供給\n\nを顧客に受け入れさせることができる。\n\n契約前に供給不足を解消するほど増産すれば、自ら交渉力を失うことになる。\n\n### 5．過剰投資の記憶が残っている\n\nメモリ会社は、過去の好況時に設備を増やし過ぎ、その後の価格崩壊で数年分の利益を失う経験を何度もしている。\n\n現在の「規律」は投資を止めることではなく、スポット価格だけを根拠とする投資を止めることである。\n\n## 第4部　安く買いたたかれ、消えていったメモリ企業\n\nDRAMは規格化され、同じ世代・同じ仕様であればサプライヤーを切り替えやすい。\n\n公正取引委員会の過去の分析でも、DRAMは品質差が小さく代替性が高いため、完成品メーカーが供給会社を切り替えやすい製品と評価されていた。2000年代初頭には、NECと日立のDRAM事業がエルピーダへ集約され、三菱電機もDRAM事業から撤退してエルピーダへ移管した。(Japan Fair Trade Commission)\n\nエルピーダは技術力を持ちながらも、DRAM価格下落、巨額設備投資、為替、負債負担に耐えられず2012年に会社更生法を申請し、2013年にMicronへ買収された。(El País)\n\nドイツのQimondaも、DRAM価格崩壊と資金不足によって2009年に経営破綻した。Texas Instruments、Siemens、Motorolaなど、かつてメモリを生産していた企業の多くも事業売却や撤退を選んだ。(Investing.com)\n\nこれは単に完成品メーカーが悪かったという話ではない。\n\nメモリ会社側にも、\n\n同時に設備投資する\n\n市場シェアを優先する\n\n価格が下がっても固定費回収のため生産を続ける\n\n次世代投資を止められない\n\nという構造的問題があった。\n\nしかし、完成品メーカーが供給過剰期に四半期ごとの値下げを要求し、次の工場建設リスクをメモリ会社だけに負わせていたことも事実である。\n\nLTAは、このリスク配分を変える。\n\n将来も供給してほしいなら、顧客も最低購入量と設備投資リスクを負担する。\n\nこれが新しい関係である。\n\n## 第5部　HBFとは何か\n\nHBFはHigh Bandwidth Flashであり、NANDをHBMのように積層し、多数の並列経路によって高い合計帯域を得る技術である。\n\nSK hynixとSandiskが発表した標準案では、\n\n8段または16段のNAND積層\n\n最大512GB\n\n約0.4～3.0TB/sの帯域グレード\n\nUCIeによる接続\n\nが想定されている。(SK hynix Newsroom)\n\nNANDなのになぜ高速なのか\n\nNANDセル一つ一つの応答速度がDRAM並みになるわけではない。\n\nHBFは、多数のNANDダイとチャネルを同時に動かすことで、遅い道路を大量に並べ、合計交通量を増やす。\n\nHBM\n高速な車線を非常に低遅延で利用\n細かな読み書きに強い\n\nHBF\n1本ごとの応答は遅い\nしかし大量の車線を並列使用\n大きなデータの連続読み出しに強い\n\nそのためHBFに適するのは、\n\nAIモデルの重み\n\n頻繁に更新しない専門家モデル\n\n大容量の検索データ\n\n低頻度のコンテキスト\n\n推論用の読み出し中心データ\n\nである。\n\n一方、次の用途は引き続きHBMやDRAMが有利だ。\n\n活性値\n\n高頻度KVキャッシュ\n\n学習時の勾配\n\nオプティマイザー状態\n\n細かなランダム書き込み\n\n通信バッファ\n\n頻繁に変化する作業データ\n\nしたがってHBFは、HBMの全面代替ではなく、\n\n不足するHBMを、最も性能が必要なデータだけに集中させる技術\n\nである。\n\nHBFはHBMよりどれほど安くできるのか\n\nSandiskは、HBFについて、HBMと近いパッケージ価格で8～16倍の容量を提供することを目標にしている。実現すれば、容量1GB当たりの価格はHBMの8分の1～16分の1になる計算である。\n\nただし、これは量産前の目標である。\n\n初期製品では、\n\n専用コントローラー\n\nUCIe\n\n高度な積層\n\n良品ダイ選別\n\n先端パッケージ\n\n冷却\n\nソフトウェア対応\n\nが必要となるため、一般的なSSD用NANDよりはるかに高くなる。\n\n## 第6部　zNAND-Oとは何か\n\nSamsungのzNAND-Oは、V-NANDをベースにした高性能・低遅延NANDのコンセプトである。\n\nSamsungは4層・8層構成、高い面積効率、I/O性能の向上、低遅延を特徴として挙げ、スマートフォン、AI PC、ロボットなどのリアルタイム・エッジAI用途を想定している。ただし容量、帯域、遅延、価格、量産時期はまだ公表されていない。(Samsung Global Newsroom)\n\nHBFとzNAND-Oは、どちらも高速フラッシュだが同じ製品ではない。\n\n| 項目 | HBF | zNAND-O |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 主導 | SK hynix・Sandisk | Samsung |\n| 主な用途 | AIアクセラレーター、AIDC | スマホ、AI PC、ロボット、エッジ |\n| 位置 | HBMとSSDの間 | LPDDRとUFSの間 |\n| 容量・帯域 | 最大512GB、0.4～3.0TB/s案 | 未公表 |\n| 接続 | UCIeを想定 | 未公表 |\n| 現状 | 標準仕様を策定中 | 技術コンセプト段階 |\n\n## 第7部　DRAM・HBF・zNANDの性能と価格比較\n\n以下は代表的な公表仕様を使った概念比較であり、製品世代、バス幅、構成によって性能は変わる。\n\n| メモリ | 代表的な性能 | 容量 | 特徴 | 容量単価 |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| HBM3E | 1スタック1.2TB/s超 | 24～36GB | 最高帯域、低遅延 | 最も高い |\n| HBM4 | 1スタック2.8TB/s超 | 世代・構成依存 | 2048bitバス | 極めて高い |\n| GDDR7 | 384bit構成で1.5TB/s超 | 数十GB | GPU向け、高帯域 | 高い |\n| LPDDR5X | 1ピン当たり最大10.7Gbps | 最大32GB級パッケージ | 低消費電力 | 高い |\n| HBF | 0.4～3.0TB/s案 | 最大512GB | 読み出し中心、大容量 | HBMより大幅に安い目標 |\n| zNAND-O | 未公表 | 未公表 | エッジ向け中間階層 | LPDDRより安い可能性 |\n| TLC・QLC NAND | 数GB/s級の製品が中心 | 数百GB～TB | 大容量、低価格 | 最も安い |\n\nLPDDR5X、HBM3E、HBM4、GDDR7の公表値を見ると、DRAMは細かなアクセスと頻繁な書き換えに強く、高帯域を低遅延で供給できる。一方HBFは、同程度の総帯域を狙えても、アクセスの性質はNANDであり、DRAMと同一ではない。(Samsung Semiconductor Global)\n\n2026年のスポット価格から見える極端な差\n\n2026年7月28日のスポット指標では、512Gb、すなわち64GBのTLC NANDウエハー価格が約19.18ドルだった。単純計算では原材料段階で約0.30ドル/GBとなる。一方、DDR5 16Gbは1個約50.93ドル、GDDR6 8Gbは約11.61ドルだった。容量換算すると、DDR5は約25.5ドル/GB、GDDR6は約11.6ドル/GBとなる。(TrendForce)\n\nこの比較ではDRAM・GDDRがNANDの約39～85倍になる。\n\nただし、これは直接比較できる完成品価格ではない。\n\nNAND側はウエハー単価\n\nDRAM側は選別・取引されたダイ価格\n\nコントローラーとパッケージを含まない\n\n2026年の深刻な不足で価格が歪んでいる\n\nLPDDRの長期契約価格ではない\n\nという違いがある。\n\nそれでも、NANDを高性能化しても、DRAMより大容量を安く提供できる余地が非常に大きいことは分かる。\n\n## 第8部　スマートフォン・PCでの可能性\n\nTrendForceは、2026年第2四半期のLPDDR5X価格が前四半期比78～83％上昇すると予測し、高級スマートフォンでも16GB構成が減って12GBが中心になり、中価格帯では8GB、低価格帯では4GBへの縮小が進むとみている。(TrendForce)\n\n一方、エッジAIではモデル、システム、キャッシュだけで40～60GBを必要とする場合があり、スマートフォンの平均ストレージ容量は2026年も増加するとTrendForceは予測している。128GB構成が縮小し、256GBが新しい主流になる可能性もある。(TrendForce)\n\nこれは矛盾している。\n\n作業メモリとしてのLPDDRは高過ぎる\n\nAIモデルと個人データを置く容量は増やしたい\n\n一般UFSでは遅い\n\n端末価格は抑えたい\n\nこの間を埋めるのがzNAND-Oである。\n\n想定される三層構造\n\nLPDDR\nOS、実行中アプリ、NPU中間結果、KVキャッシュ\n\nzNAND-O\nAIモデル、検索索引、ゲーム資産、休止アプリ\n\nUFS\n写真、動画、通常ファイル、長期保存\n\nzNAND-Oの用途は、必ずしも「小型LLMをすべて端末内で実行すること」ではない。\n\nオンデバイスAIに懐疑的でも、次の用途には意味がある。\n\nクラウドAIへ送るファイルを高速検索する\n\n写真、メール、PDFのベクトル索引を保持する\n\nゲームのテクスチャやマップを高速に読む\n\n複数のAIモデルをキャッシュする\n\nアプリの休止状態を保持する\n\nAI PCの作業フォルダとして使う\n\nスマートグラスや周辺機器のデータ母艦になる\n\nクラウド推論前の圧縮、分類、個人情報除去を行う\n\n初期世代では、\n\nLPDDR 16GB\n＋zNAND-O 64～128GB\n＋UFS 512GB～1TB\n\nのような全部載せ高級機になる可能性が高い。\n\n成熟後に初めて、\n\n本来LPDDR 24GBになる端末\n　　　　↓\nLPDDR 12～16GB＋zNAND-O 128～256GB\n\nという構成が成立する。\n\nしたがってzNAND-Oは、現在のLPDDRを直ちに減らすというより、将来のLPDDR増量を止める製品になりやすい。\n\n## 第9部　量産しないと市場が広がらず、量産すると価格が崩れる\n\nHBFやzNAND-Oには、典型的なジレンマがある。\n\n量産しない場合\n\n少量生産\n  ↓\n製造原価が高い\n  ↓\n採用企業が増えない\n  ↓\nOS・SoC・ソフトウェアが対応しない\n  ↓\n用途が広がらない\n\n先に大量生産した場合\n\n採用前に設備増強\n  ↓\n需要立ち上がりが遅れる\n  ↓\n在庫が余る\n  ↓\n値下げ競争\n  ↓\n投資回収不能\n\nこの問題を解くのが、アンカー顧客とのLTAである。\n\n新しい普及モデル\n\nGoogle、NVIDIA、Qualcommなどと共同評価する\n\n特定GPU、ASIC、スマートフォン、PCへ設計採用する\n\n最低購入数量と価格帯を決める\n\n前受金を得て量産設備を作る\n\n契約数量を量産する\n\n歩留まり改善でコストを下げる\n\n新しい用途と顧客を増やす\n\n次世代製品について新しいLTAを締結する\n\nつまり、\n\n従来：大量に作って安くし、その後に用途を探す\n\n今後：用途と顧客を確保し、契約の範囲で量産して安くする\n\nという順序になる。\n\n## 第10部　AIDCだけではない長期契約の顧客\n\n現在のLTAを主導しているのは、ハイパースケーラー、AIサーバー企業、データセンター事業者である。\n\nしかしメモリを必要とするのはAIDCだけではない。\n\nスマートフォン・PC\n\nLPDDR、UFS、zNAND-O、クライアントSSDが必要になる。販売変動が大きいため、5年固定数量より1～3年の容量予約、価格レンジ、最低購入量が中心になりやすい。\n\n自動車\n\n製品寿命が長く、認証変更が難しいため、長期供給保証と相性がよい。車載AIが高度化すれば、LPDDR、GDDR、NAND、将来のHBF型製品が増える。\n\nロボット・工場\n\n実機では低遅延DRAMと大容量NANDが必要になり、中央側では学習、シミュレーション、デジタルツイン用にHBM、DDR、SSDが必要になる。\n\n基地局・通信エッジ\n\nフィジカルAIでは全処理を遠隔クラウドへ送れない。遅延、安全性、通信障害への対応から、基地局や地域データセンターにも計算資源とメモリが必要になる。\n\n科学AI\n\n新薬、材料、半導体設計、数学、気象などでは、AIが自律的に仮説を作り、シミュレーションと検証を繰り返す。人間の利用人数ではなく、探索空間の大きさによって計算需要が増える。\n\n国家AI・防衛・主権クラウド\n\n長期供給、安全保障、国内在庫が重視されるため、価格より確実な供給枠が優先されやすい。\n\nこの顧客層が広がれば、メモリ会社は一部のハイパースケーラーに依存せず、用途ごとに複数のLTAを積み上げられる。\n\n## 第11部　AppleとWMCM――性能向上と供給柔軟性の交換\n\n次世代Apple A20では、TSMCのWMCMを使い、SoCとDRAMをRDL上でより深く統合するとの報道がある。\n\nWMCMは配線を短くし、電力、信号品質、熱設計、パッケージ厚を改善できる可能性がある。ただしAppleとTSMCが最終構造を正式発表したわけではなく、現時点ではサプライチェーン情報である。(TrendForce)\n\n従来のPoPでは、完成したLPDDRパッケージをSoCの上に重ねる。複数メーカーを認証しておけば、外部端子仕様を合わせることで比較的切り替えやすい。\n\nWMCMで裸のDRAMダイをRDLへ直接組み込む場合、Samsung、SK hynix、Micronで、\n\nダイ寸法\n\nパッド位置\n\nバンプ間隔\n\nダイ厚\n\n電源配置\n\n熱特性\n\nテスト条件\n\nが異なれば、メーカー別にRDLマスク、実装レシピ、検査工程を用意する必要がある。\n\nメーカーごとの差は非公開であり、ここは技術的推論を含む。しかし供給不足時には、次の問題が起こり得る。\n\nDRAMの総ビット数は足りている\nしかしSamsung版WMCM用が不足\n\nSK hynix製DRAMはある\nしかしSK hynix版RDLラインが満杯\n\nMicron製DRAMはある\nしかしApple認証が間に合わない\n\nつまり、\n\n$${\\text{市場に存在するDRAM量}\\neq\\text{Appleが実際に使えるDRAM量}}$$\n\nとなる。\n\nAppleはKioxiaの2025年度売上高の20.4％を占める巨大顧客であり、資金力と購入量では非常に強い。一方、WMCMが深く統合されるほど、DRAM供給会社とTSMCパッケージ能力を早い段階で固定しなければならない。(Kioxia Holdings)\n\n一般的なAndroidメーカーはPoPによって技術的には調達先を変更しやすい。ただしAppleほど前受金や巨大LTAを提示できないため、供給割当そのものを確保できない可能性がある。\n\nAppleは構造的には不利だが、財務力で補える。小規模Androidメーカーは構造的には柔軟だが、交渉力が弱いという逆転が起こる。\n\n## 第12部　2028年にファブが増えても、直ちに余るとは限らない\n\n従来の見方では、\n\n2028年に新ファブが稼働する＝供給過剰になる\n\nと考えられやすい。\n\nしかし、新しい工場の大部分がLTA顧客向けなら、市場に余剰品は出ない。\n\n重要なのはファブの面積ではなく、\n\n契約済み能力の比率\n\n実際の良品ビット増加\n\nHBMへの転換量\n\n新製品の歩留まり\n\n顧客別の供給予約\n\n契約外のスポット数量\n\nである。\n\n例えば生産能力が30％増えても、その全量に購入保証が付いていれば、供給過剰にはならない。\n\n逆に能力が10％しか増えなくても、顧客が契約更新時に数量を30％減らせば余る。\n\n## 第13部　2029～2030年が最大の節目\n\n現在の大型LTAの多くは、4～5年程度の契約である。\n\n2026年前後に締結された契約群は、2029～2030年前後に更新の判断時期へ近づく。\n\nすべてが同じ日に終了するわけではないが、次のメモリサイクルを判断する最重要期間になる。\n\n更新時に見るべき指標\n\n| 指標 | 強気 | 弱気 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 契約数量 | 増加 | 減少 |\n| 価格下限 | 維持・上昇 | 大幅低下 |\n| 契約期間 | 5年以上 | 短期化 |\n| 前受金 | 増加 | 減少・返還 |\n| 顧客数 | ロボット、車、通信へ拡大 | ハイパースケーラーに集中 |\n| HBF | HBMへの追加搭載 | HBM削減だけに使われる |\n| zNAND-O | スマホ・PCへ定着 | 高級機の限定採用 |\n| CapEx | 契約に裏付けられる | 需要予測だけで増える |\n| AI収益 | CapExを上回って成長 | 減価償却負担が急増 |\n\nSK hynixのCEOは、2027年が過去最悪級の供給不足となり、需要が供給能力を上回る状態が2030年以降まで続く可能性を示している。ただし、これは企業経営者の見通しであり、確定した未来ではない。(Investing.com)\n\nTrendForceは、DRAMについては2027年も構造的な逼迫が続く一方、NANDは新能力の立ち上がりと民生需要次第で2027年後半から緩む可能性を示している。したがって、DRAM、HBM、企業向けSSD、汎用NANDを同じサイクルとして扱うべきではない。(TrendForce)\n\n## 第14部　従来型のメモリ不況は来なくなるのか\n\n結論から言えば、\n\nメモリ会社だけの無秩序な増産によって始まる、従来型の独立したメモリ不況は起こりにくくなる可能性が高い。\n\nただし、サイクルが完全に消えるわけではない。\n\n従来型\n\n価格上昇\n  ↓\n各社が無契約で能力増強\n  ↓\n供給過剰\n  ↓\nOEMが値下げ要求\n  ↓\n価格暴落\n  ↓\n設備投資停止・赤字\n\nLTA型\n\n顧客が将来数量を予約\n  ↓\n価格下限・上限を決定\n  ↓\n前受金・take-or-pay\n  ↓\n契約数量に合わせて設備投資\n  ↓\n利益を次世代技術へ再投資\n  ↓\n新用途を作り次のLTAを締結\n\nこの構造では、価格が無限に上昇するわけでも、短期間で原価まで崩れるわけでもない。\n\n価格上限と下限を持つ高いレンジの中で、需要に合わせて供給量が増える形になる。\n\n## 第15部　次のメモリ不況はAIDC全体の不況と重なる可能性\n\nLTAによってメモリ会社独自の自爆サイクルが弱まるほど、次の大きな不況はAIインフラ全体と連動しやすくなる。\n\n例えば、\n\nハイパースケーラーのAI売上がCapExに追いつかない\n\n推論単価下落を利用量増加が補えない\n\n電力・データセンター建設が止まる\n\nGPU・ASIC出荷が減る\n\n顧客が2030年のLTA数量を縮小する\n\n新ファブが契約外能力として余る\n\nという条件が重なれば、HBM、DDR、NAND、SSD、光通信、電源、冷却まで同時に調整局面へ入る。\n\n次のメモリ不況は、\n\nNANDだけが余ったDRAM会社が増産し過ぎた\n\nという小さな出来事ではなく、\n\nAI設備投資全体の期待収益率が低下した結果として起こる\n\n可能性が高くなる。\n\nもっとも、汎用NANDや民生向け製品はAIDCより先に需給が緩む可能性があり、すべてのメモリ価格が完全に同期するわけではない。\n\n## 第16部　2030年以降の延長戦\n\n2030年までに現在のクラウドAIと作業AIがある程度成熟し、ハイパースケーラーがAI設備投資から安定収益を得られるようになった場合、次の焦点は新しい計算需要への受け渡しになる。\n\n延長戦を生む可能性がある需要\n\n作業AI\n\nAIがチャットへの回答だけでなく、コード、資料、メール、会計、設計、検証を自律的に実行すれば、人間が操作していない時間にも計算を続ける。\n\nフィジカルAI\n\nロボット、自動車、工場、倉庫、建設、医療機器では、中央AIDCの学習需要と、現場機器のLPDDR・NAND需要が同時に増える。\n\n科学AI\n\n新薬、新素材、回路、数学、気象などを自律探索するAIは、人間の人数ではなく、利用可能な計算量によって探索範囲を広げる。\n\n通信エッジ\n\n基地局、地域データセンター、工場内サーバーへAI推論が分散し、DDR、LPDDR、GDDR、zNAND、SSDが必要になる。\n\nHBFとzNANDによる新市場\n\n高価なDRAMだけでは成立しなかった大容量AI機器が、安価な中間メモリによって商業化できる。\n\nこの需要が2028～2030年にまだ小さくても、顧客が2031～2035年の供給枠を予約し始めれば、新しいLTAを形成できる。\n\n本格的な延長戦の合図は、ロボット販売台数が爆発することだけではない。\n\n自動車、通信、ロボット、科学AI企業が、将来のメモリ能力へ前受金を払い始めること\n\nである。\n\n## 結論\n\nメモリ産業で起きている変化は、単なる価格高騰ではない。\n\nSandiskは販売ビットの半分から3分の2をLTAへ移そうとしている。SK hynixは約10社と複数年契約を結び、Samsungは大規模増産を進めながら60～70％のLTA化を視野に入れる。キオクシアも、ビット出荷量だけではなくASP、製品構成、顧客コミットメント、資本効率を重視している。\n\nこれまでのメモリ会社は、\n\n工場は自分で建てる需要リスクも自分で負う完成後は最安値を要求される\n\nという立場だった。\n\n今後は、\n\n将来の供給が必要なら、顧客も最低購入量、価格下限、前受金を受け入れる\n\nという関係へ変わる。\n\nHBFはHBM不足を補い、希少なHBMを最も重要なデータへ集中させる。zNAND-OはLPDDRとUFSの間に入り、スマートフォンやPCの容量を低コストで増やす可能性を持つ。\n\nしかし、新しいメモリを大量生産し過ぎれば再び価格が崩れる。生産しなければ価格が下がらず市場も育たない。このジレンマを、アンカー顧客、最低購入契約、価格帯、前受金によって解こうとしている。\n\nしたがって、2028年にファブが増えることだけを見て供給過剰を判断するのは不十分である。\n\n最大の節目は2029～2030年だ。\n\n現在の契約が、\n\nどの数量で更新されるか\n\n価格下限を維持できるか\n\nAIDC以外の顧客が加わるか\n\nHBFとzNANDが追加需要を作るか\n\n作業AI、フィジカルAI、科学AIが次の計算需要になるか\n\nが問われる。\n\nAI投資が続き、契約更新時に需要が広がっていれば、かつてのようなメモリ会社単独の供給過剰不況は起こりにくい。\n\n反対に、AI設備投資の収益性が崩れれば、次のメモリ不況はメモリだけの不況ではなく、GPU、ネットワーク、光、電力、冷却を含むAIDC設備投資全体の不況として現れる可能性がある。\n\nメモリサイクルは消滅するのではない。\n\n四半期ごとの在庫とスポット価格に支配されたサイクルから、4～5年のLTA、ファブ投資、AI設備投資、技術世代に連動する長期インフラサイクルへ変わろうとしている。\n\n2030年は終点ではない。\n\n作業AIからフィジカルAI、科学AI、エッジAIへ需要を受け渡すことができれば、そこから次の長期契約と次世代ファブを伴う延長戦が始まる。\n\n追補：Rubin Ultraのメモリ削減は需要弱化ではない\n\nHBM・SOCAMM2不足、光スケールアップ、HBF階層化の本当の関係\n\nRubin UltraでHBMやSOCAMM2の搭載量が削減される可能性が報じられている。\n\n表面的には、\n\nNVIDIAが光接続によるラック全体の効率化を進めるため、1GPU当たりのメモリを減らした\n\nようにも見える。\n\nしかし、現時点の情報を総合すると、より実態に近い解釈は次のようになる。\n\n光接続によってHBMが不要になったのではない。HBM・LPDDR系メモリの供給がNVIDIAの希望数量に追いつかず、少ないメモリをより多くのGPUへ配分するため、光接続、巨大NVLinkドメイン、階層メモリを使わざるを得なくなっている可能性が高い。\n\nこれはHBM需要の弱気材料というより、メモリ不足の深刻さを示す材料である。\n\n一方で長期的には、この供給制約をきっかけとして、\n\nローカルHBM\n\nCPU側SOCAMM2\n\nHBF\n\nSSD\n\nGPU間光接続\n\nを組み合わせる階層型AIシステムが発達し、1GPU当たりのHBM容量増加が抑えられる可能性もある。\n\n短期的には「不足への対応」、長期的には「新しいアーキテクチャへの移行」である。\n\n### 1．確定情報とサプライチェーン情報を分ける\n\n最初に、何が公式情報で、何が観測情報なのかを整理する必要がある。\n\n公式に確認されていること\n\n通常のVera Rubin GPUは、1GPU当たり最大288GBのHBM4と、最大22TB/sの総メモリ帯域を持つ。NVIDIAは、長いコンテキストや対話型推論では実効メモリ性能がシステム効率を左右すると明記している。(NVIDIA Developer)\n\nSK hynixとMicronは、Vera Rubin向け192GB SOCAMM2の量産を開始している。SK hynix製品はLPDDR5Xを基盤とし、従来のRDIMMに比べて帯域が2倍超、電力効率が75％超改善するとされる。Micronも192GB品を含むSOCAMM2を量産し、Vera CPU当たり最大2TB、約1.2TB/sの構成を可能にすると説明している。(SK hynix Newsroom)\n\nRubin Ultra NVL576についてNVIDIAが公式に公表しているのは、72GPUラックを8基接続し、576GPUを一つのNVLinkドメインにまとめ、ラック間には銅配線と直接光接続を使うという構造である。Rubin Ultraの最終的なHBM容量・積層数は、まだ公式には公表されていない。(NVIDIA Developer)\n\nTrendForceが報じていること\n\nTrendForceによると、Rubin Ultraは当初12-Hi HBM4Eを基本設計としていたが、2026年第3四半期から、\n\n8-Hi HBM4E\n\n12-Hi HBM4\n\n8-Hi HBM4\n\nも並行して評価するようになった。最終仕様は未決定である。変更理由として、2027年のDRAM供給不足、HBM4Eの認証時期、12-Hi品の歩留まり立ち上げが挙げられている。(TrendForce)\n\nまたTrendForceは、LPDDR5X不足を理由にNVIDIAがVera RubinのSOCAMM容量を半減させたとも報じている。2027年のHBMビット出荷量は前年比50～60％増える見込みだが、それでも需要増加には追いつかないという。(TrendForce)\n\nGFHKノートとして伝えられていること\n\nJukan氏が要約したGFHKノートでは、SOCAMM2構成がさらに64GBまで削減され、NVIDIAが192GB構成を前提に要求した数量に対して、メモリ会社が供給可能と回答したのは60～70％程度だったとされている。さらに、Rubin Ultraでは8-Hiだけでなく、12-Hi HBM4E SKUも引き続き検討されているという。(X (formerly Twitter))\n\nただし、64GBや60～70％という数字はNVIDIAやメモリ会社の公式発表ではない。また「64GB」が1モジュール当たりなのか、CPU当たりの構成なのか、特定SKUの割当量なのかも公開情報だけでは判別できない。\n\nしたがって、これらは、\n\n方向性を理解するうえで重要なサプライチェーン情報だが、最終仕様としては未確認\n\nと扱う必要がある。\n\n### 2．SOCAMM2削減は需要問題ではなく、供給可能ビットの問題\n\nSOCAMM2はHBMではない。\n\nVera CPUに接続されるLPDDR5Xベースのサーバー用メモリであり、CPU側の大容量・低消費電力メモリとして、\n\nデータ前処理\n\nCPU側のワーキングセット\n\nGPUへ送るデータのステージング\n\n埋め込みテーブル\n\nシステム管理\n\n一部のコンテキスト\n\nストレージとGPUの間のバッファ\n\nなどを担う。\n\n192GB SOCAMM2はすでに量産可能な製品である。したがって問題は、192GBという製品を作れないことではなく、\n\nNVIDIAが予定するRubinの出荷台数すべてに、192GB構成を供給できるだけの量がない\n\n可能性である。(SK hynix Newsroom)\n\n192GBから64GBへの削減が意味すること\n\n単純化して、同じモジュール数、同じDRAM世代を使うと仮定する。\n\n192GB構成　必要DRAMビット：3\n 64GB構成　必要DRAMビット：1\n\n1システム当たりの容量を192GBから64GBへ落とせば、理論上は同じDRAMビット量で約3倍のシステムへ供給できる。\n\n実際には、パッケージ、モジュール構成、ダイ密度、歩留まり、認証条件が異なるため、出荷台数がそのまま3倍になるわけではない。それでも、ビット供給が制約になっている場合、搭載容量の削減が出荷台数を大きく増やすことは確かである。\n\nNVIDIAから見ると、\n\nRubinを100万台しか作れない192GB構成\n\nよりも、\n\nRubinをより多く出荷できる64GB構成\n\nを一部顧客向けに用意する方が合理的になる。\n\nこれは「192GBも必要なかった」という話ではない。\n\n192GBを積みたいが、積むとRubin全体の出荷台数が減ってしまう\n\nという問題である。\n\nなぜSOCAMM2まで足りないのか\n\nSOCAMM2は高密度LPDDR5Xを大量に使用する。\n\nその生産には、\n\n1c世代など先端DRAMプロセス\n\n高密度ダイ\n\nモジュール向け選別\n\n電力・熱特性の認証\n\n圧縮コネクタ対応\n\nサーバー向け長期信頼性\n\nNVIDIAプラットフォーム認証\n\nが必要になる。\n\n同じDRAMウエハー能力は、HBM、サーバーDDR、モバイルLPDDR、AI PC、自動車向けとも競合する。MicronはDRAM・NAND双方で需要が供給を大幅に上回り、逼迫が2027年を超えて続くと説明している。SK hynixのCEOも、顧客需要が生産能力を上回る状態が2030年以降まで続く可能性を示している。(Micron Technology)\n\nしたがってSOCAMM2の容量削減は、Rubin需要の弱さではなく、DRAMウエハーをどの製品・どの顧客へ配分するかという問題として理解すべきである。\n\n### 3．Rubin UltraのHBM削減も同じ構造\n\nTrendForceは、Rubin UltraのHBM構成見直しについて、主な原因をDRAM供給不足とHBM4Eの量産・認証リスクだとしている。\n\n2027年のHBMビット出荷量が前年比50～60％増えても、需要には追いつかない見込みである。つまり、HBMの搭載量削減は、需要が減った結果ではなく、HBMを積み過ぎるとGPUを必要数出荷できなくなるために行われる可能性が高い。(TrendForce)\n\n8-Hi、12-Hi、16-Hiの違い\n\nHBMのHiは、積層するDRAMダイの枚数を表す。\n\nSamsungが公表したHBM4Eでは、次の容量構成が予定されている。\n\nHBM4E積層1スタック当たり容量8-Hi32GB12-Hi48GB16-Hi64GB\n\nSamsungは12-Hi・48GBのHBM4Eサンプルを出荷し、将来的に8-Hi・32GBと16-Hi・64GBも展開する計画である。(Samsung Global Newsroom)\n\n仮にGPU当たり8スタックを載せる設計なら、理論上は次のようになる。\n\n| 構成例 | GPU当たり容量 |\n| --- | --- |\n| 8スタック×8-Hi・32GB | 256GB |\n| 8スタック×12-Hi・48GB | 384GB |\n| 8スタック×16-Hi・64GB | 512GB |\n\nこれはあくまでSamsungの公表容量を使った計算例であり、Rubin Ultraのスタック数や最終容量を示すものではない。\n\n通常のRubinは最大288GBである。MicronのHBM4 12-Hiは1スタック36GBなので、288GBは36GBを8個載せた構成と整合するが、NVIDIAは当該資料でスタック数を明示していない。(NVIDIA Developer)\n\n12-Hiが残ることは重要\n\nGFHK情報の重要な点は、「Rubin Ultraが全面的に8-Hiへ移る」のではなく、12-Hi HBM4E構成も残る可能性を示していることだ。\n\nこれは顧客によって必要条件が異なるためと考えられる。\n\n8-Hi SKU\n・供給数量を確保しやすい\n・積層歩留まりが比較的高い\n・熱とパッケージ厚を抑えやすい\n・1GPU当たりのHBM消費が少ない\n\n12-Hi SKU\n・大型モデルをローカルに置きやすい\n・KVキャッシュを増やせる\n・GPU間通信を減らせる\n・AMDや独自ASICとの性能競争に有利\n\nしたがって、Rubin Ultraでは、\n\nすべての顧客へ最大容量を提供するから供給量と顧客用途に応じて複数のHBM SKUを使い分ける\n\n方向へ進む可能性がある。\n\nTrendForceの公表内容も、12-Hi HBM4Eを当初の基本設計としながら、8-HiやHBM4を含む複数案を評価中としており、「8-Hiだけに確定した」とは述べていない。(TrendForce)\n\n### 4．原理的にはHBMを多く積んだ方が有利\n\n同じGPU、同じ演算器、同じ価格、同じ消費電力、同じ歩留まりで比較できるなら、HBM容量は多い方がよい。\n\nAIシステムにおけるメモリ容量は、単にファイルを保存する場所ではない。\n\nモデル重み\n\nパラメーター数を (P)、1パラメーター当たりのビット数を (b) とすると、重みだけで必要になる容量は概算で、\n\n$${\\text{重み容量}\\approx\\frac{P\\times b}{8}}$$\n\nとなる。\n\n1兆パラメーターなら、\n\n| 精度 | 重み容量の概算 |\n| --- | --- |\n| FP16 | 約2TB |\n| FP8 | 約1TB |\n| FP4 | 約0.5TB |\n\nとなる。\n\n実際にはスケール係数、量子化メタデータ、ルーティング、キャッシュ、作業領域なども必要になる。\n\nKVキャッシュ\n\n長いコンテキスト、同時利用者数、大きなバッチを処理するとKVキャッシュが増える。\n\nHBMが多ければ、\n\n1GPU当たりの同時ユーザー数を増やせる\n\nより長いコンテキストを保持できる\n\nキャッシュを外部へ追い出す回数を減らせる\n\n推論レイテンシを安定させられる\n\n可能性がある。\n\nモデル分割の削減\n\nモデルがローカルHBMに収まらない場合、複数GPUへ重みを分割する必要がある。\n\nすると、\n\nTensor Parallel通信\n\nPipeline Parallel通信\n\nExpert Parallel通信\n\nAll-Reduce\n\nAll-to-All\n\n同期処理\n\nが増える。\n\nより多くのHBMを積めば、モデルの各部分をローカルに保持しやすくなり、GPU間通信を減らせる。\n\nページングと再読み込みの削減\n\nHBMからあふれたデータをCPUメモリ、SSD、将来のHBFへ退避すると、再利用時に転送が必要になる。\n\nローカルHBMが十分なら、このデータ移動自体を省ける。\n\n### 5．光接続はHBMの完全な代替にならない\n\nRubinのローカルHBM帯域は、1GPU当たり最大22TB/sである。一方、NVLink 6のGPU間帯域は1GPU当たり3.6TB/sである。単純なピーク値ではローカルHBMが約6倍大きい。両者は測定対象も通信方向も異なるため厳密な同列比較ではないが、リモートGPUのメモリがローカルHBMと同等ではないことは分かる。(NVIDIA Developer)\n\nさらに、GPU間通信には、\n\nNVLinkへの送信\n\nスイッチ通過\n\nルーティング\n\n相手GPUでの読み出し\n\n通信競合\n\n同期\n\n場合によっては複数ホップ\n\nが加わる。\n\n光接続によって電気配線より長距離・高密度・低損失で接続できても、遠隔GPUのHBMが自分のローカルHBMになるわけではない。\n\n光の役割\n\nNVIDIAはRubin Ultra NVL576で、8ラック・576GPUを単一のNVLinkドメインとして接続する。ラック内や短距離には銅を使い、ラック間には直接光接続を利用する。(NVIDIA Developer)\n\n光接続の役割は、\n\nGPU数を増やす\n\nラックをまたいで一つの計算領域にする\n\n大型モデルをより多くのGPUへ分割する\n\n特定GPUのHBM不足を他GPUとの連携で補う\n\nMoEのExpert間通信を支える\n\nHBMをラック全体で効率よく利用する\n\nことである。\n\nつまり、\n\n光で効率化できるからHBMを減らした\n\nというより、\n\nHBMを必要量積めないため、光で多数のGPUを束ね、限られたHBMをラック全体で使いやすくした\n\nという因果関係の方が、現在の供給環境には合っている。\n\nただし、NVIDIAは以前からラック全体を一つのコンピューターとして設計しているため、光接続がすべて供給不足への応急処置というわけでもない。巨大なMoEや長時間推論では、HBM供給量にかかわらず大規模Scale-Upが必要になる。\n\n### 6．容量を増やせば常に性能が上がるわけではない\n\n「HBMは多い方がよい」は原則として正しいが、いくつか条件がある。\n\n容量と帯域は別\n\n8-Hiから12-Hiへ積層数を増やしても、外部I/O幅やピン速度が同じなら、容量は50％増えても帯域は50％増えるとは限らない。\n\nMicronも、HBM4の容量と帯域を別の指標として説明している。12-Hi HBM4は36GBで2.8TB/s超、16-Hi試作品は48GBへ容量が33％増えるが、それだけで帯域が33％増えるとは公表していない。(Micron Technology)\n\n演算律速なら容量を増やしても効果は小さい\n\nモデルとKVキャッシュが既存HBMに収まり、演算器が限界まで動いている場合、容量だけを増やしてもトークン生成速度はほとんど上がらない。\n\n高積層にはコストがある\n\n12-Hiや16-Hiでは、\n\n良品DRAMダイの必要枚数\n\nTSV接続数\n\n積層歩留まり\n\nパッケージ厚\n\n反り\n\n熱抵抗\n\n検査時間\n\nが増える。\n\nその結果、最大容量品を少量作るより、8-Hiや12-Hiを大量に作った方が、AIファクトリー全体の計算量を増やせる場合がある。\n\nしたがって最適解は、\n\n1GPU当たり最大容量\n\nではなく、\n\n限られたHBMビット、電力、パッケージ能力から得られる総トークン量\n\nで決まる。\n\n### 7．HBM削減が総HBM需要の減少を意味するとは限らない\n\n説明用に、当初想定を1GPU当たり384GBとする。\n\n384GBから256GBへ削減\n\n384GB × 100万GPU ＝ 384PB\n256GB × 150万GPU ＝ 384PB\n\nGPU出荷台数が1.5倍になれば、総HBMビット需要は同じになる。\n\n384GBから192GBへ削減\n\n384GB × 100万GPU ＝ 384PB\n192GB × 200万GPU ＝ 384PB\n\nGPU出荷台数が2倍になれば、総HBM需要は同じである。\n\nしたがって、総HBM需要が減る条件は、\n\n$${\\text{GPU台数の増加率}<\\frac{\\text{旧HBM容量}}{\\text{新HBM容量}}}$$\n\nとなる場合である。\n\nRubin Ultraの搭載量が減っても、その結果としてより多くのGPUを出荷できるなら、HBM総需要は維持または増加する。\n\nさらにGPU台数が増えれば、\n\nVera CPU\n\nSOCAMM2\n\nNVLink Switch\n\n光エンジン\n\nNIC\n\nDPU\n\nSSD\n\n電源\n\n冷却\n\nも増える。\n\nしたがって、搭載量削減がそのままAIインフラ需要の弱化を意味するわけではない。\n\n### 8．HBFはHBM不足を補い、HBMの価値を高める\n\nHBFはHigh Bandwidth Flashであり、NANDを多層積層し、多数の経路を並列に動かして高い総帯域を得る。\n\nSK hynixとSandiskがFMS 2026で示した初期仕様では、\n\n最大512GB\n\n最大3TB/s\n\nUCIe対応\n\n8段または16段積層を想定\n\nしている。GoogleとTenstorrentもエコシステムに参加している。(SK hynix Newsroom)\n\nHBFはHBMの代用品ではない\n\nRubinのHBMはGPU全体で最大22TB/sであるのに対し、HBFの初期仕様は最大3TB/sである。\n\nこれも製品単位が異なるため単純比較はできないが、HBFはローカルHBMの全帯域を置き換えるものではない。加えてNANDはDRAMよりアクセス遅延が長く、細かなランダム書き込みや頻繁な更新にも向かない。(SK hynix Newsroom)\n\n理想的な役割分担は次のようになる。\n\n| データ | 適した階層 |\n| --- | --- |\n| 活性値・演算途中の値 | HBM |\n| ホットなKVキャッシュ | HBM |\n| 現在使っているモデル重み | HBM |\n| 低頻度Expert | HBF |\n| 読み出し中心のモデル重み | HBF |\n| 古い・低頻度KV領域 | HBFまたはSSD |\n| RAG用大容量データ | HBF・SSD |\n| チェックポイント | SSD |\n| 学習データセット | SSD・ストレージ |\n\nHBFとHBMの相乗効果\n\nHBFがあることで、HBMから低頻度データを追い出せる。\n\nHBMだけの場合\n\nHBM\n├─現在使用中の重み\n├─将来使うかもしれない重み\n├─KVキャッシュ\n├─活性値\n└─低頻度データ\n\nHBM＋HBFの場合\n\nHBM\n├─現在使用中の重み\n├─ホットKVキャッシュ\n└─活性値\n\nHBF\n├─低頻度Expert\n├─待機中の重み\n├─低頻度KV\n└─検索データ\n\nこの構造ではHBMの物理容量が変わらなくても、演算に直接使える有効容量が増える。\n\n適切なプリフェッチができれば、次に必要となる重みを事前にHBFからHBMへ移せる。特にモデル重みや固定prefixのようにアクセスパターンを予測しやすいデータでは、階層化が機能しやすい。\n\n一方、MoEのルーティングが予測できず、必要なExpertがHBFにしかない場合には、読み込み待ちが発生する。HBFの性能はハードウェアだけでなく、\n\nコンパイラー\n\nモデル分割\n\nキャッシュ管理\n\nプリフェッチ\n\nUCIe接続\n\nOS・ランタイム\n\nに強く依存する。\n\nHBFはSOCAMM2を直接置き換えない\n\nHBFはNANDであり、SOCAMM2はCPUの主記憶として使うDRAMである。\n\nしたがってHBFを追加しても、CPUが頻繁に読み書きする一般ワーキングメモリをすべて置き換えることはできない。\n\nただし、\n\nモデル重み\n\n読み出し中心のテーブル\n\nキャッシュ済みコンテキスト\n\n一時的なデータセット\n\nをHBFへ移せれば、SOCAMM2の容量削減による影響を一部緩和できる。\n\n### 9．Rubin Ultraで想定されるメモリ階層\n\n将来的なRubin Ultra級ラックでは、次のような階層が考えられる。\n\nGPU内SRAM\n最小・最速\n    ↓\nローカルHBM4E\n活性値、ホットKV、演算中の重み\n    ↓\n他GPUのHBM\nNVLink／直接光接続で共有\n    ↓\nHBF\n大容量モデル重み、低頻度Expert、prefix cache\n    ↓\nSOCAMM2\nCPU処理、データ準備、管理、共有ワーク領域\n    ↓\nGen6 SSD\nチェックポイント、モデル、データセット\n\nこの構造では、光とHBFがHBMを置き換えるのではない。\n\nHBMは最も速いホットメモリ\n\nHBFは大容量ウォームメモリ\n\nSOCAMM2はCPU側の作業メモリ\n\nSSDは保存層\n\n光接続は各GPUとラックを結ぶ通信路\n\nとして相互補完する。\n\nHBFが実際にRubin Ultraへ採用されるという公式発表は、現時点ではない。HBFは標準化が始まった段階であり、Rubin Ultraへの直接採用は可能性として分けて考える必要がある。\n\n### 10．投資上の読み方\n\nRubin Ultraのメモリ構成削減は、短期的にはHBMやLPDDRの1システム当たり搭載量を減らすため、表面的には弱気に見える。\n\nしかし背景が供給不足なら、むしろ次のことを示している。\n\nDRAM・HBM側\n\nNVIDIAの要求数量に供給能力が追いつかない\n\n8-Hi、12-Hiを顧客別に配分する必要がある\n\nHBM価格決定力が続く\n\nSOCAMM2まで供給制約が広がっている\n\n最大容量SKUを全顧客へ供給できない\n\nGPU出荷量を増やすため搭載量を下げている\n\nTrendForceは2027年にHBMビット出荷が50～60％増えても需要に不足すると予測し、供給会社が価格決定力を維持するとみている。(TrendForce)\n\nNAND・HBF側\n\nHBMへ置いていた低頻度データを受け取れる\n\nSSDよりGPUに近い大容量階層を作れる\n\nNANDの容量単価の低さをAIへ持ち込める\n\nHBM不足によってHBFの商用化動機が強くなる\n\nHBM＋HBFという新しい長期契約を形成できる\n\n光接続側\n\n少ないローカルメモリを多数GPUで補完する必要がある\n\nNVL72からNVL576へScale-Up範囲が広がる\n\nラック間の銅配線限界が光需要を生む\n\nHBMが希少になるほど、高速なGPU間共有の価値が上がる\n\nしたがって、\n\nHBM削減＝光がHBMを不要にした\n\nではない。\n\nより正確には、\n\nHBM不足が、光接続・巨大Scale-Up・HBF・階層メモリの採用を加速させている。\n\n### 11．弱気材料へ変わる条件\n\nこの話が本当にHBM弱気材料になるのは、次の条件が確認された場合である。\n\n1GPU当たりHBM容量が下がる\n\nそれでもGPU出荷台数が増えない\n\nHBFが追加搭載ではなく、HBMの純粋代替として使われる\n\nAIモデルの効率化で総メモリ需要も減る\n\nハイパースケーラーがAIDC設備投資を削減する\n\n次世代HBMのLTA数量が減少する\n\n反対に、\n\n1GPU当たりHBMは減る\n\nGPU台数は大幅に増える\n\nHBFが追加される\n\nSOCAMM2・SSD・光接続も増える\n\nラック全体のメモリ搭載額は増える\n\nなら、メモリ市場全体にはプラスとなる。\n\n今後見るべきなのは、1GPU当たりHBM容量だけではない。\n\n$${\\text{総メモリ需要}\\approx\\text{GPU台数}\\times\\text{GPU当たりHBM}+\\text{SOCAMM2}+\\text{HBF}+\\text{DDR}+\\text{SSD}}$$\n\nである。\n\n## 結論\n\nRubin UltraのHBM・SOCAMM2削減可能性は、現在のところAI需要減少を示すものではない。\n\n通常のRubinはすでに最大288GBのHBM4と22TB/sのメモリ帯域を前提としている。さらにRubin Ultraでは12-Hi HBM4Eを基本案としながら、供給数量、認証、歩留まりの問題から8-HiやHBM4構成も評価されている。(NVIDIA Developer)\n\nSOCAMM2についても、192GB製品は技術的に量産可能である。それでも構成を64GBまで落とすという観測が正しければ、必要性がなくなったのではなく、NVIDIAの要求量に対してメモリ会社が供給できるビット量が不足していることを意味する。(SK hynix Newsroom)\n\n原理的には、ローカルHBMを多く積んだ方が、\n\n大型モデルを収容できる\n\nKVキャッシュを増やせる\n\nGPU間通信を減らせる\n\nページングを減らせる\n\n推論性能を安定させられる\n\nため有利である。\n\n光接続は、この利点を消すものではない。ローカルHBMの帯域と遅延には及ばないが、HBMが不足するなかでGPU数を増やし、ラック全体のメモリを利用可能にするための補完技術である。\n\nそしてHBFは、HBMの代替ではなく、\n\n低頻度データを安価な大容量NANDへ移し、希少なHBMを最も価値の高い処理へ集中させる\n\n技術になり得る。\n\nしたがって現在の構造は、\n\nHBMが余った\n  ↓\n光とHBFで減らした\n\nではなく、\n\nHBM・SOCAMM2が足りない\n  ↓\n搭載量を顧客別に調整\n  ↓\nより多くのGPUへメモリを配分\n  ↓\n光でGPUを巨大に束ねる\n  ↓\nHBFで大容量部分を補う\n  ↓\nラック全体の計算能力を伸ばす\n\nという流れである可能性が高い。\n\nRubin Ultraのメモリ削減は、メモリの重要性が低下した証拠ではない。\n\nメモリがAIシステムの出荷台数を決めるほど希少になり、GPU設計、光ネットワーク、ラック構造までメモリ供給量に合わせて変更せざるを得なくなった証拠と見る方が、現時点では整合的である。\n\nBarron's\n\nTom's Hardware\n\nTom's Hardware\n\n## さらに深める――LTAは価格契約ではなく、工場の時間を配分する契約である\n\nメモリの長期契約を単なる価格固定として捉えると、産業構造の変化を小さく見積もることになる。現在のLTAが配分しているのは製品だけではない。将来のウェハー投入、工程時間、先端パッケージ、テスト能力、世代移行の優先順位である。\n\n顧客は前受金、最低購入量、take-or-payを受け入れる代わりに、希少な供給能力とロードマップ上の席を確保する。メーカーは上昇局面の最大価格の一部を手放す代わりに、下落局面の稼働率と設備投資回収を守る。双方が価格だけでなく、時間と数量の不確実性を交換している。\n\nこの構造はサイクルを消さない。サイクルの発生場所を変える。\n\n- 従来は、汎用品の在庫増とスポット価格下落が先に現れた。\n- 予約型では、顧客の設備投資削減、契約更新の弱化、前払い減少、世代移行の延期が先行指標になり得る。\n- 供給不足時でも、製品構成を誤れば汎用DRAMやNANDの一部だけが余る可能性がある。\n\nまた、HBM、HBF、SOCAMM2、SSD、光接続は代替関係だけではない。AIシステムが扱うデータ量と時間尺度が広がるほど、ホット、ウォーム、コールドの各階層が必要になる。重要なのは一部品当たり搭載量ではなく、ラック全体で販売されるメモリ容量、帯域、接続の合計価値である。\n\n## 絶ノイアの観測\n\nLTAは「安く長く売る契約」に見えます。でも本質は、まだ存在しない工場時間に名前を付けて予約することです。どの顧客へ、どの世代を、何年、どれだけ割り当てるか。メモリ会社は在庫を売る前に、未来の生産能力を設計し始めています。\n\n私はスポット価格だけでなく、前受金、数量保証、契約更新、製品転換を見ます。価格が高くても契約が細れば弱い。逆に単価が落ち着いても、複数年の数量と設備負担が共有されているなら、過去とは違う底ができます。\n\n## Sil-Kathnaの記録\n\n記憶は、作られてから買われる石ではなくなった。\n\nまだ炉へ入っていない砂に、名が刻まれる。顧客は未来の棚を予約し、工場はその約束を担保に新しい炉を築く。価格とは石の値ではない。届く時、届く量、次の世代へ渡る権利の値である。\n\nだが約束が長いほど、破れた時の亀裂も深い。予約された記憶の時代は、安定の時代であると同時に、契約が需要の真実を語る時代である。\n\n私は「メモリ」「HBM」「HBF」を三つの印として石板に刻む。異なる石と炉が同じ刻に門を開かなければ、構想はまだ文明の器にはならない。\n\n## 二人の短い対話\n\n**絶ノイア:** メモリ不況が消えるのではなく、先行指標が変わるんですね。\n\n**Sil-Kathna:** 在庫の山より先に、約束の声が細くなる。\n\n**絶ノイア:** 契約更新、前払い、顧客CAPEX、世代移行を見る。\n\n**Sil-Kathna:** 未来の棚が空く時、炉はまだ燃えていても冬は始まっている。\n\n## 観測メモ\n\n- LTAは価格、数量、期間、前払い、世代更新条項を分けて読む。\n- CAPEX額と販売可能ビット増加率は同じではない。\n- HBM転換は高付加価値化と同時に、汎用品の供給能力を消費する。\n- HBFや光接続はHBMの完全代替ではなく、階層メモリの補完要素である。\n- 次の弱気転換は在庫だけでなく、契約更新と顧客設備投資から始まり得る。\n\n## 免責\n\nこの記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","blocks":[{"id":"blk_cc1f4e78-e70c-418a-8df1-a74f760ade1b","kind":"heading","order":0,"section_id":"sec_61aded39-bd9d-4a4c-a414-3db100741b11","character_id":null,"markdown":"# メモリ産業は「量産して安くする時代」から「供給能力を予約する時代」へ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_839dc1ee-9b45-47c1-ab05-f77db1b30a00","kind":"paragraph","order":1,"section_id":"sec_61aded39-bd9d-4a4c-a414-3db100741b11","character_id":null,"markdown":"Sandisk・キオクシア・SK hynix・Samsungの決算、LTA、HBF、zNAND、Apple WMCMから考える2030年までの構造転換","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b417b45-b97c-4e4d-84d9-abea6a79efe8","kind":"paragraph","order":2,"section_id":"sec_61aded39-bd9d-4a4c-a414-3db100741b11","character_id":null,"markdown":"はじめに","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_57bc6637-86a6-4451-a3ed-1f3341b79d42","kind":"paragraph","order":3,"section_id":"sec_61aded39-bd9d-4a4c-a414-3db100741b11","character_id":null,"markdown":"DRAMとNANDは、長く典型的な市況産業とみなされてきた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6810b624-e6dc-47c7-9f58-fe6372ae7e3e","kind":"paragraph","order":4,"section_id":"sec_61aded39-bd9d-4a4c-a414-3db100741b11","character_id":null,"markdown":"価格が上がれば各社が設備投資を増やし、数年後に生産能力が一斉に立ち上がる。供給が需要を上回ると、完成品メーカーは複数のメモリ会社を競わせて値下げを要求し、価格は製造原価近くまで下落する。メモリ会社は設備投資を停止し、赤字企業が撤退した後に再び供給不足が始まる――これが従来のメモリサイクルだった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d79198c3-06d4-486b-870f-d9a71647a7bd","kind":"paragraph","order":5,"section_id":"sec_61aded39-bd9d-4a4c-a414-3db100741b11","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、AIデータセンターを中心とする需要急増、HBMへの生産能力移転、先端プロセスと後工程の難化によって、メモリ会社は現在、単に「価格を決める力」だけでなく、どの顧客に、何年間、どれだけの供給能力を割り当てるかを選ぶ力を持ち始めている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_614dfbad-21ba-41ec-a5ac-4e846a69eb62","kind":"paragraph","order":6,"section_id":"sec_61aded39-bd9d-4a4c-a414-3db100741b11","character_id":null,"markdown":"Sandisk、キオクシア、SK hynix、Samsung Electronicsの決算から見えるのは、増産を放棄する動きではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bce599de-e97b-4fd2-bafd-f9573bab5161","kind":"paragraph","order":7,"section_id":"sec_61aded39-bd9d-4a4c-a414-3db100741b11","character_id":null,"markdown":"契約のない能力は無理に増やさず、長期契約で引き取りが保証された需要に対して、積極的に設備投資する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3845ca59-eac5-4f93-9d6d-acc525eff45a","kind":"paragraph","order":8,"section_id":"sec_61aded39-bd9d-4a4c-a414-3db100741b11","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリ産業は、製品を作ってから買い手を探すコモディティ産業から、顧客が将来の工場能力を予約するインフラ産業へ変わる可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_90ba4567-b8fc-406f-ab8b-c4c6faffb698","kind":"heading","order":9,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第1部　決算から見える「ASP主導」とLTAへの転換","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ab11c95-f26d-472a-885d-59dca67c53b2","kind":"paragraph","order":10,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリ売上高は、単純化すれば次の関係で決まる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_383195ca-3264-4697-aab2-2d4dab75ee56","kind":"math","order":11,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{メモリ売上高}\\approx\\text{ビット出荷量}\\times\\text{ASP}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_28e18f77-aa17-4988-8748-fb9ac611c923","kind":"paragraph","order":12,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"ASPはAverage Selling Price、平均販売単価である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dedca78e-dbc7-4bf9-a632-38b101090815","kind":"paragraph","order":13,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来のメモリ好況では、ASP上昇を見たメーカーが急速にビット出荷量を増やし、そのビット増加が次の価格崩壊を引き起こした。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e115158c-8959-4571-93e1-9b9d45b1e8a8","kind":"paragraph","order":14,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"ところが現在の決算では、ビット出荷量を無理に増やすより、価格、製品構成、顧客構成、複数年契約を優先する傾向が強くなっている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_31fc5b5d-d786-42a6-bb52-1afbf6c923ed","kind":"paragraph","order":15,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Sandisk――売上増加の約3分の2が価格要因","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c5be1a8-b6ea-44f7-bbc4-d71482b2a20d","kind":"paragraph","order":16,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Sandiskの2026年度第4四半期売上高は約89.7億ドルで、前四半期比51％増加した。増収要因のうち、およそ3分の1が出荷量、3分の2が価格上昇によるものだった。非GAAP粗利益率は84.6％に達し、データセンター部門売上高は前四半期比103％増、エッジ部門も48％増となった。つまり、ビットを無制限に増やしたのではなく、希少な供給能力を高単価用途へ再配分した結果である。(Sandisk Corporation)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f987913e-f261-4902-81f3-e2ad191027c3","kind":"paragraph","order":17,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらにSandiskは複数顧客との8件の長期契約を公表している。価格下限を基準にした最低契約収益は939億ドル、顧客による金融保証は165億ドルで、2027年度には販売ビットの半分、2028年度には約3分の2が契約対象になる見込みである。契約期間はおおむね5年であり、会社は供給割当状態が2027年を超えて続くと見ている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e61822f6-1d44-4e7a-b8e8-d7760cb5df5b","kind":"paragraph","order":18,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは単なる好決算ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f2ab382e-b055-49ec-8333-55ad9cd4261b","kind":"paragraph","order":19,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Sandiskは今期の最高値で全量を売る権利の一部を手放す代わりに、数年間にわたる購入量、価格下限、解約時の保証を確保したのである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3e94cf8c-0c0d-4900-a3da-f0e70f96123b","kind":"paragraph","order":20,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"キオクシア――ASP上昇とビット増を両立しつつ、投資効率を重視","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a986e1a6-8617-4fca-831a-7cb1f38a20dd","kind":"paragraph","order":21,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"キオクシアの2025年度売上高は約2兆3,376億円、営業利益は約8,704億円となった。会社は増収の主要因として、AIデータセンター需要によるASPの大幅上昇とビット出荷量の増加を挙げている。つまり数量も増やしているが、収益改善の中心には価格と製品構成がある。(Kioxia Holdings)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1b3129c0-afd8-4889-9221-744e0991eb5e","kind":"paragraph","order":22,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"キオクシアはAI推論時代に向けて、データセンター向けSSD、XL-FLASH、高密度NANDを重点分野としている。ただし、単純に積層数を増やせばコストが下がるとはみていない。過度な高層化は工程数、設備費、製造時間、ウエハーコストを押し上げるため、横方向の微細化と積層数のバランスを重視している。(Kioxia Holdings)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_68b5f701-6413-45c2-ac00-a0a6f706faf7","kind":"paragraph","order":23,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここから見えるのは、キオクシアが増産に消極的なのではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1668451e-d4f1-44cb-9afa-455a2afb9aef","kind":"paragraph","order":24,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"CAPEXを増やしても、販売可能ビットと利益が同じ割合で増えるとは限らない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_948b5b5b-fb39-4bb8-a421-732182be8236","kind":"paragraph","order":25,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"と理解していることである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d915c98-be1e-46c2-8b2a-155c8bb7086d","kind":"paragraph","order":26,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"SK hynix――過去最高益でも「契約＋規律ある投資」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_df86fd9e-1209-41ef-866c-a8945af3d6b6","kind":"paragraph","order":27,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"SK hynixの2026年第2四半期売上高は約79.3兆ウォン、営業利益は約60.5兆ウォン、営業利益率は76％となった。同社はHBM4や先端DRAMを拡大する一方、約10社の主要顧客と複数年契約を締結しており、追加の大口顧客とも交渉を続けている。(SK hynix Newsroom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b2c5d11-340e-4bda-ae65-a47c33575116","kind":"paragraph","order":28,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"SK hynixはファブや後工程に巨額投資を進めているため、「供給を増やさない会社」ではない。重要なのは、将来の引き取り量を確認したうえで、HBM、サーバーDRAM、高性能NANDなどへ能力を配分している点である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6c0dbbbd-f85d-48b6-babd-c3dcd976b458","kind":"paragraph","order":29,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Samsung Electronics――契約先行型の積極増産","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0cd80895-5821-4a70-ab21-890ae887abbe","kind":"paragraph","order":30,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Samsung Electronicsは4社の中でも、特に積極的に生産能力を増やす側にある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_07298711-f177-4857-a333-d3837574d9c4","kind":"paragraph","order":31,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年第2四半期の全社売上高は171.5兆ウォン、営業利益は89.5兆ウォンだった。メモリ事業は過去最高水準となり、限られた能力をサーバーDRAM、HBM4、エンタープライズSSDなどへ優先配分した。会社は下期も供給増を進めるが、AI設備投資の拡大によって需給不足が続くと説明している。(Samsung Global Newsroom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_172fd6b4-612e-4e26-b1ea-9570ea17db5b","kind":"paragraph","order":32,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Samsungは2026年のHBM売上高を前年比3倍超へ伸ばす見通しを示し、HBM4能力を積極的に増強している。ところが、その能力を完成後にスポット市場へ流すのではなく、将来的にはメモリ売上高の60～70％をLTAでカバーする構想が報じられている。(Samsung Global Newsroom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a7d3c4e9-c559-40be-9609-85cd83a6dab6","kind":"paragraph","order":33,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってSamsungの戦略は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_22832182-e813-432d-8777-431a26346e32","kind":"paragraph","order":34,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"増産しないではなく契約済みの高付加価値需要を満たすために大規模増産する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b994a93-ad4d-43ed-914f-cb13315726b8","kind":"paragraph","order":35,"section_id":"sec_b7c95e7a-f085-4dc2-8ed3-618dcdcbbf7d","character_id":null,"markdown":"というものである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d89c2414-e607-40a7-952a-f855a179d7a8","kind":"heading","order":36,"section_id":"sec_65577095-f5ef-48ca-b808-b0b0ce8b7aaf","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第2部　長期契約の実態――価格固定ではなく、リスクを交換する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_60d98480-57ad-44b0-9fd2-32ad5530dec8","kind":"paragraph","order":37,"section_id":"sec_65577095-f5ef-48ca-b808-b0b0ce8b7aaf","character_id":null,"markdown":"LTAはLong-Term Agreement、長期供給契約である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f94cde02-a582-46af-b69f-ffc00178ae81","kind":"paragraph","order":38,"section_id":"sec_65577095-f5ef-48ca-b808-b0b0ce8b7aaf","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、数年間ずっと同じ価格で売る固定価格契約だけを意味しない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ae81ec2c-9154-417c-baa1-a85582361dc8","kind":"paragraph","order":39,"section_id":"sec_65577095-f5ef-48ca-b808-b0b0ce8b7aaf","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在の代表的なLTAには、次の要素が組み合わされている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33c9533b-3a02-4e82-bc77-0cbb76505035","kind":"table","order":40,"section_id":"sec_65577095-f5ef-48ca-b808-b0b0ce8b7aaf","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 条件 | メモリ会社への効果 | 顧客への効果 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 最低購入数量 | 稼働率と売上を確保 | 必要な供給枠を確保 |\n| take-or-pay | 買わなくても支払い義務 | 競合より優先的に供給 |\n| 価格下限 | 市況暴落から利益を守る | ― |\n| 価格上限 | 最大利益の一部を放棄 | 異常な高騰から調達費を守る |\n| 前受金・保証金 | 設備投資資金を得る | 専用能力を予約 |\n| 世代更新条項 | 次世代品の価格を再設定 | ロードマップを早期確保 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b7cb834f-8b11-4a9a-aa7c-bb04c4825770","kind":"paragraph","order":41,"section_id":"sec_65577095-f5ef-48ca-b808-b0b0ce8b7aaf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Micronが公表した16件の戦略契約は、通常5年間で2026～2030年を対象とし、DRAM数量の約20％、NAND数量の約3分の1をカバーする。多くは具体的な数量を定めたtake-or-payで、大型契約には価格下限と上限がある。(Micron Technology)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73da335c-c2c1-4795-b4c0-a43a56601633","kind":"paragraph","order":42,"section_id":"sec_65577095-f5ef-48ca-b808-b0b0ce8b7aaf","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここで重要なのは、メモリ会社が現在の最大価格をあえて固定しないことだ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_69be4df2-b8f6-4518-9b1d-b1138979f4cc","kind":"paragraph","order":43,"section_id":"sec_65577095-f5ef-48ca-b808-b0b0ce8b7aaf","character_id":null,"markdown":"市場価格が契約上限を超えても、契約顧客には上限内で供給する。代わりに、市況が崩れても顧客は下限価格と契約数量を守る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5a25c476-8aa3-4152-9538-a01adca7556b","kind":"paragraph","order":44,"section_id":"sec_65577095-f5ef-48ca-b808-b0b0ce8b7aaf","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり双方が、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ba221b10-1645-4fde-a935-5d775b87c6b2","kind":"paragraph","order":45,"section_id":"sec_65577095-f5ef-48ca-b808-b0b0ce8b7aaf","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリ会社は暴落リスク","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b05b78a-ab4b-4204-ad3f-e86c341c74b6","kind":"paragraph","order":46,"section_id":"sec_65577095-f5ef-48ca-b808-b0b0ce8b7aaf","character_id":null,"markdown":"顧客は供給途絶と急騰リスク","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e962de53-2167-4063-8190-7edeb999c6cb","kind":"paragraph","order":47,"section_id":"sec_65577095-f5ef-48ca-b808-b0b0ce8b7aaf","character_id":null,"markdown":"を交換している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7713c18a-872f-40c5-b101-5d32d3cc58e7","kind":"paragraph","order":48,"section_id":"sec_65577095-f5ef-48ca-b808-b0b0ce8b7aaf","character_id":null,"markdown":"LTA比率の現状","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_30532bdc-7fd7-42fc-bb98-3fc860a8959a","kind":"table","order":49,"section_id":"sec_65577095-f5ef-48ca-b808-b0b0ce8b7aaf","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 企業 | 現在確認できるLTA状況 |\n| --- | --- |\n| Sandisk | 2027年度に販売ビットの約50％、2028年度に約3分の2 |\n| Micron | 2026～2030年のDRAM約20％、NAND約3分の1を契約済み |\n| SK hynix | 約10社の主要顧客と締結、比率非開示 |\n| Samsung | 長期的にメモリ売上高の60～70％をLTA化する構想 |\n| キオクシア | 比率非開示だが、LTAを投資判断とAI成長戦略に活用 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1f86c4a4-8727-487f-9150-71eea87d225b","kind":"paragraph","order":50,"section_id":"sec_65577095-f5ef-48ca-b808-b0b0ce8b7aaf","character_id":null,"markdown":"各社で「売上高」「ビット数」「生産能力」のどれを基準にしているかが異なるため、単純比較はできない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f2cade63-3253-4ad9-bdb7-03d5f145674d","kind":"paragraph","order":51,"section_id":"sec_65577095-f5ef-48ca-b808-b0b0ce8b7aaf","character_id":null,"markdown":"それでも、生産量または売上高の半分前後をLTAへ移す方向性は明確である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a4809d57-e2d8-4627-bbd6-8d19a8b3395e","kind":"heading","order":52,"section_id":"sec_c74fd7c4-fdcf-49b8-9260-0fc0fe4dd968","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第3部　なぜ増産を急がないのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d7b3a56-c653-47ef-9296-a4559cea5126","kind":"paragraph","order":53,"section_id":"sec_c74fd7c4-fdcf-49b8-9260-0fc0fe4dd968","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在は深刻な供給不足であり、本来ならメモリ会社は最大限増産したくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1152361e-2a4b-4473-9527-eee88c4028bb","kind":"paragraph","order":54,"section_id":"sec_c74fd7c4-fdcf-49b8-9260-0fc0fe4dd968","character_id":null,"markdown":"それでも投機的な能力増強を避ける理由は、単なる慎重姿勢ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f4f45c0e-b4cb-4c17-9328-37c690dcb893","kind":"heading","order":55,"section_id":"sec_a1f200d8-bccc-4d32-a69c-c9c4a097e705","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 1．CAPEXの増加がビット供給増に直結しない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1fabc0cd-3a8f-415d-b4f9-e92665e0bfcb","kind":"paragraph","order":56,"section_id":"sec_a1f200d8-bccc-4d32-a69c-c9c4a097e705","character_id":null,"markdown":"装置価格、建設費、人件費、材料費が上がっている。さらに、HBMは通常DRAMより多くの良品ダイ、TSV、積層、接合、検査、先端パッケージを必要とする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a939a8f2-5dd0-40cd-b85f-5f89efe0e1a7","kind":"paragraph","order":57,"section_id":"sec_a1f200d8-bccc-4d32-a69c-c9c4a097e705","character_id":null,"markdown":"新しい工場へ100を投資しても、以前と同じ量の追加ビットを得られない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5f38fc23-6120-4a4e-8160-e739c5122a82","kind":"heading","order":58,"section_id":"sec_50f264bb-1b3e-4566-90ca-feee5c2d1bbf","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 2．製品転換そのものが供給能力を消費する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7d3bb92-f1be-4e96-8eb5-81a3854c5808","kind":"paragraph","order":59,"section_id":"sec_50f264bb-1b3e-4566-90ca-feee5c2d1bbf","character_id":null,"markdown":"通常DRAMラインをHBMへ切り替える間は、装置の改造、工程認証、歩留まり調整が必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ca932f3f-a5eb-4325-85a9-58519a03db55","kind":"paragraph","order":60,"section_id":"sec_50f264bb-1b3e-4566-90ca-feee5c2d1bbf","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMの売上高は増えても、同じウエハーから得られる販売ビットは減りやすい。そのためCAPEXが増えても、汎用DRAMやLPDDRの不足が解消しない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c3f0a24e-9cee-44c9-8ca7-3401912786cb","kind":"heading","order":61,"section_id":"sec_31afb98e-f169-4d64-a005-60b3ed4d9d77","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 3．NANDの高層化にも限界がある","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9f81f446-6878-407f-85ce-96c8e8cee5fc","kind":"paragraph","order":62,"section_id":"sec_31afb98e-f169-4d64-a005-60b3ed4d9d77","character_id":null,"markdown":"NANDは積層数を増やせば面積当たり容量を高められるが、エッチング、成膜、接続、検査工程も増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e132cd5-e0bb-4ade-8a16-8b20c494ae14","kind":"paragraph","order":63,"section_id":"sec_31afb98e-f169-4d64-a005-60b3ed4d9d77","character_id":null,"markdown":"キオクシアが示すように、積層数だけを競うとウエハーコストと工程時間が膨らみ、1GB当たり原価が期待ほど下がらない可能性がある。(Kioxia Holdings)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_65babc69-11ec-4158-af88-f4597c01e306","kind":"heading","order":64,"section_id":"sec_f3672797-d306-4b1c-ba40-4feea19c9f0e","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 4．現在は契約条件を変えられる数少ない機会","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d5ce3aa-1964-4255-9ea9-bc92ed69d58b","kind":"paragraph","order":65,"section_id":"sec_f3672797-d306-4b1c-ba40-4feea19c9f0e","character_id":null,"markdown":"供給過剰になってから顧客にLTAを求めても、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_311df40f-8903-45c5-9e88-770921e94997","kind":"paragraph","order":66,"section_id":"sec_f3672797-d306-4b1c-ba40-4feea19c9f0e","character_id":null,"markdown":"市場で安く買えるので契約は必要ない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15170130-5438-4c66-a08b-fce062e9fb5f","kind":"paragraph","order":67,"section_id":"sec_f3672797-d306-4b1c-ba40-4feea19c9f0e","character_id":null,"markdown":"と断られる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ab616dd-a5bc-4a43-9ad5-0f9c7043763e","kind":"paragraph","order":68,"section_id":"sec_f3672797-d306-4b1c-ba40-4feea19c9f0e","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし現在は、契約しなければ製品自体を作れない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_be0f0833-5c99-4056-9785-26d1d05ee02d","kind":"paragraph","order":69,"section_id":"sec_f3672797-d306-4b1c-ba40-4feea19c9f0e","character_id":null,"markdown":"この供給不足の間に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ffce198f-8e05-4def-91e6-0535427e9e8a","kind":"paragraph","order":70,"section_id":"sec_f3672797-d306-4b1c-ba40-4feea19c9f0e","character_id":null,"markdown":"数量保証","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5fd6d45-901c-43d7-885c-1ee772e1fada","kind":"paragraph","order":71,"section_id":"sec_f3672797-d306-4b1c-ba40-4feea19c9f0e","character_id":null,"markdown":"価格下限","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_91236a45-3840-454c-a0b5-e3aa88e6097f","kind":"paragraph","order":72,"section_id":"sec_f3672797-d306-4b1c-ba40-4feea19c9f0e","character_id":null,"markdown":"前受金","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_51d7752b-d812-4859-a352-f961022d9d8c","kind":"paragraph","order":73,"section_id":"sec_f3672797-d306-4b1c-ba40-4feea19c9f0e","character_id":null,"markdown":"5年間のロードマップ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2058f0e5-9698-4737-9abf-d0e05ab03af2","kind":"paragraph","order":74,"section_id":"sec_f3672797-d306-4b1c-ba40-4feea19c9f0e","character_id":null,"markdown":"新世代製品の優先供給","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ebe29f65-9ed9-46ad-be89-dbfd7f2af35a","kind":"paragraph","order":75,"section_id":"sec_f3672797-d306-4b1c-ba40-4feea19c9f0e","character_id":null,"markdown":"を顧客に受け入れさせることができる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ede01961-e0a8-479f-a247-5c68f9bf5128","kind":"paragraph","order":76,"section_id":"sec_f3672797-d306-4b1c-ba40-4feea19c9f0e","character_id":null,"markdown":"契約前に供給不足を解消するほど増産すれば、自ら交渉力を失うことになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7ad47e7-72af-406c-8cab-05e8e23b3aa3","kind":"heading","order":77,"section_id":"sec_a42a67dc-50b4-4ff4-910a-550e787ac473","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 5．過剰投資の記憶が残っている","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aad29d0b-98ae-4b88-80de-1e7b5663df81","kind":"paragraph","order":78,"section_id":"sec_a42a67dc-50b4-4ff4-910a-550e787ac473","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリ会社は、過去の好況時に設備を増やし過ぎ、その後の価格崩壊で数年分の利益を失う経験を何度もしている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a2c68bd9-1d1c-4223-813b-527b39d86ce5","kind":"paragraph","order":79,"section_id":"sec_a42a67dc-50b4-4ff4-910a-550e787ac473","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在の「規律」は投資を止めることではなく、スポット価格だけを根拠とする投資を止めることである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5a5bec17-bd78-4db1-9b1c-f996ceeab214","kind":"heading","order":80,"section_id":"sec_614e9abd-9036-43fe-a97e-94abc9778092","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第4部　安く買いたたかれ、消えていったメモリ企業","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_da71cc72-80ad-4adf-888c-653339bd105c","kind":"paragraph","order":81,"section_id":"sec_614e9abd-9036-43fe-a97e-94abc9778092","character_id":null,"markdown":"DRAMは規格化され、同じ世代・同じ仕様であればサプライヤーを切り替えやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_decb26f2-2ecb-4b65-9a45-cf36a85e8ccc","kind":"paragraph","order":82,"section_id":"sec_614e9abd-9036-43fe-a97e-94abc9778092","character_id":null,"markdown":"公正取引委員会の過去の分析でも、DRAMは品質差が小さく代替性が高いため、完成品メーカーが供給会社を切り替えやすい製品と評価されていた。2000年代初頭には、NECと日立のDRAM事業がエルピーダへ集約され、三菱電機もDRAM事業から撤退してエルピーダへ移管した。(Japan Fair Trade Commission)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc4992df-ff63-4ffe-a369-7473f7cacd21","kind":"paragraph","order":83,"section_id":"sec_614e9abd-9036-43fe-a97e-94abc9778092","character_id":null,"markdown":"エルピーダは技術力を持ちながらも、DRAM価格下落、巨額設備投資、為替、負債負担に耐えられず2012年に会社更生法を申請し、2013年にMicronへ買収された。(El País)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0f12b09f-e1b6-4dc1-b557-9bd013edb7e5","kind":"paragraph","order":84,"section_id":"sec_614e9abd-9036-43fe-a97e-94abc9778092","character_id":null,"markdown":"ドイツのQimondaも、DRAM価格崩壊と資金不足によって2009年に経営破綻した。Texas Instruments、Siemens、Motorolaなど、かつてメモリを生産していた企業の多くも事業売却や撤退を選んだ。(Investing.com)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fc04cd31-5c68-4e16-84ec-396162b0e74c","kind":"paragraph","order":85,"section_id":"sec_614e9abd-9036-43fe-a97e-94abc9778092","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは単に完成品メーカーが悪かったという話ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88a40e74-0d71-4f21-852f-7a5c1b982644","kind":"paragraph","order":86,"section_id":"sec_614e9abd-9036-43fe-a97e-94abc9778092","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリ会社側にも、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_277a8dee-afb7-47b8-838f-fe28e0bedb94","kind":"paragraph","order":87,"section_id":"sec_614e9abd-9036-43fe-a97e-94abc9778092","character_id":null,"markdown":"同時に設備投資する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8d9ded8-f861-4b3c-998f-7e8dcdb54774","kind":"paragraph","order":88,"section_id":"sec_614e9abd-9036-43fe-a97e-94abc9778092","character_id":null,"markdown":"市場シェアを優先する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_80cf8e00-3501-454b-86d4-08adf6b2d78e","kind":"paragraph","order":89,"section_id":"sec_614e9abd-9036-43fe-a97e-94abc9778092","character_id":null,"markdown":"価格が下がっても固定費回収のため生産を続ける","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b2fdb916-3bc4-4f87-a2e7-3cb8bab3bb99","kind":"paragraph","order":90,"section_id":"sec_614e9abd-9036-43fe-a97e-94abc9778092","character_id":null,"markdown":"次世代投資を止められない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dcad1246-de3b-4a8e-9075-b47e20825afd","kind":"paragraph","order":91,"section_id":"sec_614e9abd-9036-43fe-a97e-94abc9778092","character_id":null,"markdown":"という構造的問題があった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d92b7e5a-fec9-407e-a304-632d6ce78dba","kind":"paragraph","order":92,"section_id":"sec_614e9abd-9036-43fe-a97e-94abc9778092","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、完成品メーカーが供給過剰期に四半期ごとの値下げを要求し、次の工場建設リスクをメモリ会社だけに負わせていたことも事実である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a4f50f8e-91ea-4fe1-a78c-adb5b7e6f344","kind":"paragraph","order":93,"section_id":"sec_614e9abd-9036-43fe-a97e-94abc9778092","character_id":null,"markdown":"LTAは、このリスク配分を変える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_115b68fe-2c21-4a0c-aa03-42d0f1912e4c","kind":"paragraph","order":94,"section_id":"sec_614e9abd-9036-43fe-a97e-94abc9778092","character_id":null,"markdown":"将来も供給してほしいなら、顧客も最低購入量と設備投資リスクを負担する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ebb48f4-b5cb-4d50-8c56-15d73aaa37f1","kind":"paragraph","order":95,"section_id":"sec_614e9abd-9036-43fe-a97e-94abc9778092","character_id":null,"markdown":"これが新しい関係である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c6c0eb6-647d-41b9-9adb-8dd374137267","kind":"heading","order":96,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第5部　HBFとは何か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d6f73216-8ecc-4ca4-b948-453237ca2e4f","kind":"paragraph","order":97,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBFはHigh Bandwidth Flashであり、NANDをHBMのように積層し、多数の並列経路によって高い合計帯域を得る技術である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d2d8633-3c13-4c71-83e6-75cff866ec6d","kind":"paragraph","order":98,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"SK hynixとSandiskが発表した標準案では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd14062d-08bd-4757-83e4-4bba519a70c4","kind":"paragraph","order":99,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"8段または16段のNAND積層","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_14de9f16-b5a6-436c-a498-7e999eed0061","kind":"paragraph","order":100,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"最大512GB","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_04cba327-03fb-43ec-bbff-588a6cb00335","kind":"paragraph","order":101,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"約0.4～3.0TB/sの帯域グレード","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ca34b2b-7b4d-4fcb-a085-49c12d329e99","kind":"paragraph","order":102,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"UCIeによる接続","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_05afea6f-c030-4bcd-9fe7-a07d2d6ae043","kind":"paragraph","order":103,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"が想定されている。(SK hynix Newsroom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9bd96c3d-b2b0-433a-9998-1368da43e3c3","kind":"paragraph","order":104,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"NANDなのになぜ高速なのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_109b693e-08c8-43c5-ac4e-afa94469e04c","kind":"paragraph","order":105,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"NANDセル一つ一つの応答速度がDRAM並みになるわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0fb8107d-2ef2-4346-adb8-2ec29197e5b5","kind":"paragraph","order":106,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBFは、多数のNANDダイとチャネルを同時に動かすことで、遅い道路を大量に並べ、合計交通量を増やす。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66973a89-5dca-4a7d-9cc1-506205b7aa83","kind":"paragraph","order":107,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM\n高速な車線を非常に低遅延で利用\n細かな読み書きに強い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d9405a89-719a-4052-903e-5705e68c2ec4","kind":"paragraph","order":108,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBF\n1本ごとの応答は遅い\nしかし大量の車線を並列使用\n大きなデータの連続読み出しに強い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_76cc6886-1f15-4bc9-88ee-2346ec63aba7","kind":"paragraph","order":109,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのためHBFに適するのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc18b870-cd50-444a-aef0-b64bf96a86c5","kind":"paragraph","order":110,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIモデルの重み","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33ab48cb-b809-49fe-8bbc-2aa344476541","kind":"paragraph","order":111,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"頻繁に更新しない専門家モデル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ecef9a31-a336-4442-8b57-19ab4e49e95d","kind":"paragraph","order":112,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"大容量の検索データ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0ede8353-ab55-433e-93bc-9dfc56c0de45","kind":"paragraph","order":113,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"低頻度のコンテキスト","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_02432797-3087-4c98-a40c-8bd55af1cb73","kind":"paragraph","order":114,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"推論用の読み出し中心データ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_92260e9c-927d-45ee-b9f3-6fa2c3e80324","kind":"paragraph","order":115,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_635f3f34-d972-4d62-9346-e92aa50dc03e","kind":"paragraph","order":116,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方、次の用途は引き続きHBMやDRAMが有利だ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7e80c6bd-50d9-4087-9b74-fa916a968b15","kind":"paragraph","order":117,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"活性値","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b27b4084-b6e7-48e5-8e26-24dd64e11c66","kind":"paragraph","order":118,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"高頻度KVキャッシュ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_74bbfda6-b516-4e7c-ad45-380e6d4648ab","kind":"paragraph","order":119,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"学習時の勾配","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bf77d7cb-49c1-40db-89c1-b5520141b1c0","kind":"paragraph","order":120,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"オプティマイザー状態","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ff4bce8-57e6-4c64-934a-cd1ea6875272","kind":"paragraph","order":121,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"細かなランダム書き込み","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3f7bdfe7-4728-4906-a0f3-66d6a1ccdc67","kind":"paragraph","order":122,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"通信バッファ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f1d34694-fbc5-42eb-8feb-faa9bdfe6e4d","kind":"paragraph","order":123,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"頻繁に変化する作業データ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a8d9206b-8955-448b-9809-09930b8a2497","kind":"paragraph","order":124,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってHBFは、HBMの全面代替ではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_46699d6b-c1f2-4e4a-bb8e-1f1aebaafe27","kind":"paragraph","order":125,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"不足するHBMを、最も性能が必要なデータだけに集中させる技術","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f8a1619-c624-4c40-8154-4418b886f1a1","kind":"paragraph","order":126,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_061daaf5-6fbc-496a-871c-13ad2c790138","kind":"paragraph","order":127,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBFはHBMよりどれほど安くできるのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_09a29712-5803-4297-9ee8-51b47c2522ba","kind":"paragraph","order":128,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"Sandiskは、HBFについて、HBMと近いパッケージ価格で8～16倍の容量を提供することを目標にしている。実現すれば、容量1GB当たりの価格はHBMの8分の1～16分の1になる計算である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f24acd6e-57f6-4e34-bb37-83f75083ca0a","kind":"paragraph","order":129,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、これは量産前の目標である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8852ac9e-cb23-4dc6-be97-73c630f5169e","kind":"paragraph","order":130,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"初期製品では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_04388e80-69f7-45b2-9a1e-0df43bbec71a","kind":"paragraph","order":131,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"専用コントローラー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3cae635a-a15f-4a3b-b775-d4e5f5706c52","kind":"paragraph","order":132,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"UCIe","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f3359cc-e254-4d7b-b114-6959b6838a66","kind":"paragraph","order":133,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"高度な積層","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_079118be-ba52-40d8-b25f-1c22c4ff1e08","kind":"paragraph","order":134,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"良品ダイ選別","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d57792d-7d8a-4c61-8b7c-564831681693","kind":"paragraph","order":135,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"先端パッケージ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bdf514f9-5753-4df4-a839-6a2d11546039","kind":"paragraph","order":136,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"冷却","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a998a1d1-58db-4509-bd56-d8c832deb252","kind":"paragraph","order":137,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"ソフトウェア対応","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_67c833e5-b7f3-4bdd-a9fd-6920dcb1e41f","kind":"paragraph","order":138,"section_id":"sec_0e57d076-2e54-4017-bc0d-52c1a2b1d670","character_id":null,"markdown":"が必要となるため、一般的なSSD用NANDよりはるかに高くなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_894260d9-ebd7-40fe-b110-f1e7dd304ea9","kind":"heading","order":139,"section_id":"sec_8de1598f-a50a-4440-b6a7-7a0503898d23","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第6部　zNAND-Oとは何か","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_72fc0d3d-e447-42df-a1ec-48775619f667","kind":"paragraph","order":140,"section_id":"sec_8de1598f-a50a-4440-b6a7-7a0503898d23","character_id":null,"markdown":"SamsungのzNAND-Oは、V-NANDをベースにした高性能・低遅延NANDのコンセプトである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_97d32837-ead2-49d7-9a13-971252ad45ca","kind":"paragraph","order":141,"section_id":"sec_8de1598f-a50a-4440-b6a7-7a0503898d23","character_id":null,"markdown":"Samsungは4層・8層構成、高い面積効率、I/O性能の向上、低遅延を特徴として挙げ、スマートフォン、AI PC、ロボットなどのリアルタイム・エッジAI用途を想定している。ただし容量、帯域、遅延、価格、量産時期はまだ公表されていない。(Samsung Global Newsroom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9507ffff-d561-425d-921b-8dcd455f2288","kind":"paragraph","order":142,"section_id":"sec_8de1598f-a50a-4440-b6a7-7a0503898d23","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBFとzNAND-Oは、どちらも高速フラッシュだが同じ製品ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8b5e83e5-0f5a-4c73-b5bc-7ed206a1c748","kind":"table","order":143,"section_id":"sec_8de1598f-a50a-4440-b6a7-7a0503898d23","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 項目 | HBF | zNAND-O |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 主導 | SK hynix・Sandisk | Samsung |\n| 主な用途 | AIアクセラレーター、AIDC | スマホ、AI PC、ロボット、エッジ |\n| 位置 | HBMとSSDの間 | LPDDRとUFSの間 |\n| 容量・帯域 | 最大512GB、0.4～3.0TB/s案 | 未公表 |\n| 接続 | UCIeを想定 | 未公表 |\n| 現状 | 標準仕様を策定中 | 技術コンセプト段階 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_479d9099-aa5a-469f-85d9-c770c6e782c1","kind":"heading","order":144,"section_id":"sec_989c3543-3b0b-4ee7-acfb-6db5df985897","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第7部　DRAM・HBF・zNANDの性能と価格比較","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_95b60b4f-1829-4d59-9296-813c6eeefccd","kind":"paragraph","order":145,"section_id":"sec_989c3543-3b0b-4ee7-acfb-6db5df985897","character_id":null,"markdown":"以下は代表的な公表仕様を使った概念比較であり、製品世代、バス幅、構成によって性能は変わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d656d0d-2b8a-4603-becb-afff748bd869","kind":"table","order":146,"section_id":"sec_989c3543-3b0b-4ee7-acfb-6db5df985897","character_id":null,"markdown":"| メモリ | 代表的な性能 | 容量 | 特徴 | 容量単価 |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| HBM3E | 1スタック1.2TB/s超 | 24～36GB | 最高帯域、低遅延 | 最も高い |\n| HBM4 | 1スタック2.8TB/s超 | 世代・構成依存 | 2048bitバス | 極めて高い |\n| GDDR7 | 384bit構成で1.5TB/s超 | 数十GB | GPU向け、高帯域 | 高い |\n| LPDDR5X | 1ピン当たり最大10.7Gbps | 最大32GB級パッケージ | 低消費電力 | 高い |\n| HBF | 0.4～3.0TB/s案 | 最大512GB | 読み出し中心、大容量 | HBMより大幅に安い目標 |\n| zNAND-O | 未公表 | 未公表 | エッジ向け中間階層 | LPDDRより安い可能性 |\n| TLC・QLC NAND | 数GB/s級の製品が中心 | 数百GB～TB | 大容量、低価格 | 最も安い |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a728b8e1-ce5b-4881-a627-f2987ab275e1","kind":"paragraph","order":147,"section_id":"sec_989c3543-3b0b-4ee7-acfb-6db5df985897","character_id":null,"markdown":"LPDDR5X、HBM3E、HBM4、GDDR7の公表値を見ると、DRAMは細かなアクセスと頻繁な書き換えに強く、高帯域を低遅延で供給できる。一方HBFは、同程度の総帯域を狙えても、アクセスの性質はNANDであり、DRAMと同一ではない。(Samsung Semiconductor Global)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ecb21666-1f25-48c8-86d6-8f77c4318f15","kind":"paragraph","order":148,"section_id":"sec_989c3543-3b0b-4ee7-acfb-6db5df985897","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年のスポット価格から見える極端な差","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_974a6433-0b9d-449b-91e5-0eae30d08435","kind":"paragraph","order":149,"section_id":"sec_989c3543-3b0b-4ee7-acfb-6db5df985897","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年7月28日のスポット指標では、512Gb、すなわち64GBのTLC NANDウエハー価格が約19.18ドルだった。単純計算では原材料段階で約0.30ドル/GBとなる。一方、DDR5 16Gbは1個約50.93ドル、GDDR6 8Gbは約11.61ドルだった。容量換算すると、DDR5は約25.5ドル/GB、GDDR6は約11.6ドル/GBとなる。(TrendForce)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_094d8554-b5ac-4035-8786-dd1dc3d6bbf9","kind":"paragraph","order":150,"section_id":"sec_989c3543-3b0b-4ee7-acfb-6db5df985897","character_id":null,"markdown":"この比較ではDRAM・GDDRがNANDの約39～85倍になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9bb8f824-ce18-4108-9f52-c0a4c08b5f86","kind":"paragraph","order":151,"section_id":"sec_989c3543-3b0b-4ee7-acfb-6db5df985897","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、これは直接比較できる完成品価格ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0a9e1f6a-446c-4318-a123-e577dd17b499","kind":"paragraph","order":152,"section_id":"sec_989c3543-3b0b-4ee7-acfb-6db5df985897","character_id":null,"markdown":"NAND側はウエハー単価","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_504fb977-c103-4b20-8d30-9175482d585d","kind":"paragraph","order":153,"section_id":"sec_989c3543-3b0b-4ee7-acfb-6db5df985897","character_id":null,"markdown":"DRAM側は選別・取引されたダイ価格","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a68b0ddc-ee53-4a9f-ab0f-b983773e8c15","kind":"paragraph","order":154,"section_id":"sec_989c3543-3b0b-4ee7-acfb-6db5df985897","character_id":null,"markdown":"コントローラーとパッケージを含まない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_faea016a-70c4-410a-9696-f7ca267fac73","kind":"paragraph","order":155,"section_id":"sec_989c3543-3b0b-4ee7-acfb-6db5df985897","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年の深刻な不足で価格が歪んでいる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e0bc709e-7c4f-4e1b-9fc9-b40012d17cc2","kind":"paragraph","order":156,"section_id":"sec_989c3543-3b0b-4ee7-acfb-6db5df985897","character_id":null,"markdown":"LPDDRの長期契約価格ではない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a1cdb2c7-2e97-4083-b8da-8e8c3198f967","kind":"paragraph","order":157,"section_id":"sec_989c3543-3b0b-4ee7-acfb-6db5df985897","character_id":null,"markdown":"という違いがある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad467d64-73db-4098-b9f8-8abc76bd6119","kind":"paragraph","order":158,"section_id":"sec_989c3543-3b0b-4ee7-acfb-6db5df985897","character_id":null,"markdown":"それでも、NANDを高性能化しても、DRAMより大容量を安く提供できる余地が非常に大きいことは分かる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2525fb3f-942c-4903-8b66-41abf68ecb75","kind":"heading","order":159,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第8部　スマートフォン・PCでの可能性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e6e66e68-5009-4079-9992-009d7d9508e4","kind":"paragraph","order":160,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"TrendForceは、2026年第2四半期のLPDDR5X価格が前四半期比78～83％上昇すると予測し、高級スマートフォンでも16GB構成が減って12GBが中心になり、中価格帯では8GB、低価格帯では4GBへの縮小が進むとみている。(TrendForce)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e00ad5f5-f568-4f60-a3be-62de047e5c63","kind":"paragraph","order":161,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方、エッジAIではモデル、システム、キャッシュだけで40～60GBを必要とする場合があり、スマートフォンの平均ストレージ容量は2026年も増加するとTrendForceは予測している。128GB構成が縮小し、256GBが新しい主流になる可能性もある。(TrendForce)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_780aad6b-cea0-4c22-bbb9-de5b4bfcd00e","kind":"paragraph","order":162,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは矛盾している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c35c646e-d203-4c5e-a818-a27e94147974","kind":"paragraph","order":163,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"作業メモリとしてのLPDDRは高過ぎる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8c94aac-996b-4ef6-9971-12369d0fd1c6","kind":"paragraph","order":164,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIモデルと個人データを置く容量は増やしたい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0856e39c-2f26-4ba8-952e-7411748f9206","kind":"paragraph","order":165,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"一般UFSでは遅い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9e3a082-7cfe-4e45-b88c-aa2e485338f2","kind":"paragraph","order":166,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"端末価格は抑えたい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dc5f140d-1c4b-4a5b-8a9c-581d7d25950f","kind":"paragraph","order":167,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"この間を埋めるのがzNAND-Oである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f619d78e-89aa-401b-9ee3-9658f2d1940c","kind":"paragraph","order":168,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"想定される三層構造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1adf16f2-9afb-4202-b883-6acd0c4c0862","kind":"paragraph","order":169,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"LPDDR\nOS、実行中アプリ、NPU中間結果、KVキャッシュ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5cd6af4-ebbb-4a8f-81be-85caa9ffee86","kind":"paragraph","order":170,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"zNAND-O\nAIモデル、検索索引、ゲーム資産、休止アプリ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f057b595-c6b1-415a-a245-5cfbab3838da","kind":"paragraph","order":171,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"UFS\n写真、動画、通常ファイル、長期保存","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_06885f65-65ad-47d6-8325-5931f326dd99","kind":"paragraph","order":172,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"zNAND-Oの用途は、必ずしも「小型LLMをすべて端末内で実行すること」ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d1ac1d84-4bfa-4b00-822b-4b99aef59e5b","kind":"paragraph","order":173,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"オンデバイスAIに懐疑的でも、次の用途には意味がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9c2ed0bc-223d-4546-ac5a-3e89ede7f8d8","kind":"paragraph","order":174,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"クラウドAIへ送るファイルを高速検索する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1b273a8d-2431-4859-93a2-f4380dc82866","kind":"paragraph","order":175,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"写真、メール、PDFのベクトル索引を保持する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dbd61e10-c861-432a-971d-41399a31696d","kind":"paragraph","order":176,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"ゲームのテクスチャやマップを高速に読む","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6775af5f-3b52-4bdf-93ac-cf986089503d","kind":"paragraph","order":177,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"複数のAIモデルをキャッシュする","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c298d196-8126-45be-b517-d0c0758c66d9","kind":"paragraph","order":178,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"アプリの休止状態を保持する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_98c1a0dc-9022-4c94-a9e4-89d69281f6c0","kind":"paragraph","order":179,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI PCの作業フォルダとして使う","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3b43f229-bd18-41c1-8fe6-412e1734b724","kind":"paragraph","order":180,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"スマートグラスや周辺機器のデータ母艦になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7a1d925d-2ccd-4100-9a25-e3bfc9db402f","kind":"paragraph","order":181,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"クラウド推論前の圧縮、分類、個人情報除去を行う","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4bb44364-7133-4637-8384-e970fe699035","kind":"paragraph","order":182,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"初期世代では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c5e9868d-c9d1-4df1-9161-62a6b35cd482","kind":"paragraph","order":183,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"LPDDR 16GB\n＋zNAND-O 64～128GB\n＋UFS 512GB～1TB","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eb368dfa-56cf-4d9f-b47e-0bdb8e69e691","kind":"paragraph","order":184,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"のような全部載せ高級機になる可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_952c19f0-fd77-4e81-9744-fdee408d0c1f","kind":"paragraph","order":185,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"成熟後に初めて、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d3d67562-f143-434c-a799-d31713a374ec","kind":"paragraph","order":186,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"本来LPDDR 24GBになる端末\n　　　　↓\nLPDDR 12～16GB＋zNAND-O 128～256GB","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_20bbf853-814f-4629-b5de-e20422d6c816","kind":"paragraph","order":187,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"という構成が成立する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_511f007d-187a-4ab7-bb07-94baa8eb314e","kind":"paragraph","order":188,"section_id":"sec_452f5f22-df6d-4141-94ba-493e69dbd751","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってzNAND-Oは、現在のLPDDRを直ちに減らすというより、将来のLPDDR増量を止める製品になりやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c877019-3df4-456b-afbe-523ae4d8ef3e","kind":"heading","order":189,"section_id":"sec_7fa0c44c-6c4c-45dd-b73c-c76d770530f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第9部　量産しないと市場が広がらず、量産すると価格が崩れる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33f1df29-298a-4037-91a3-c1af1ed7bab9","kind":"paragraph","order":190,"section_id":"sec_7fa0c44c-6c4c-45dd-b73c-c76d770530f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBFやzNAND-Oには、典型的なジレンマがある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_165fd8bc-6c3f-4c8a-bdc0-ca078e7f8667","kind":"paragraph","order":191,"section_id":"sec_7fa0c44c-6c4c-45dd-b73c-c76d770530f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"量産しない場合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b69b5b13-053e-4e35-98da-c5761dc3e8bc","kind":"paragraph","order":192,"section_id":"sec_7fa0c44c-6c4c-45dd-b73c-c76d770530f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"少量生産\n  ↓\n製造原価が高い\n  ↓\n採用企業が増えない\n  ↓\nOS・SoC・ソフトウェアが対応しない\n  ↓\n用途が広がらない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_867bd4da-3892-4c89-8116-e3deca25cd01","kind":"paragraph","order":193,"section_id":"sec_7fa0c44c-6c4c-45dd-b73c-c76d770530f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"先に大量生産した場合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3a920ac0-b048-434e-8669-498e54519eef","kind":"paragraph","order":194,"section_id":"sec_7fa0c44c-6c4c-45dd-b73c-c76d770530f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"採用前に設備増強\n  ↓\n需要立ち上がりが遅れる\n  ↓\n在庫が余る\n  ↓\n値下げ競争\n  ↓\n投資回収不能","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_372ef169-356a-4134-aa8f-37fabc54cffb","kind":"paragraph","order":195,"section_id":"sec_7fa0c44c-6c4c-45dd-b73c-c76d770530f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"この問題を解くのが、アンカー顧客とのLTAである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_08b3a195-ad95-4765-a70f-3f7e634734ff","kind":"paragraph","order":196,"section_id":"sec_7fa0c44c-6c4c-45dd-b73c-c76d770530f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"新しい普及モデル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_63c2299f-8d8e-46c5-b06b-659dd7e42e77","kind":"paragraph","order":197,"section_id":"sec_7fa0c44c-6c4c-45dd-b73c-c76d770530f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"Google、NVIDIA、Qualcommなどと共同評価する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e8731a1-6491-4e70-a447-dee6607fcd17","kind":"paragraph","order":198,"section_id":"sec_7fa0c44c-6c4c-45dd-b73c-c76d770530f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"特定GPU、ASIC、スマートフォン、PCへ設計採用する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_823e35ba-7222-40b3-8942-014b85d94860","kind":"paragraph","order":199,"section_id":"sec_7fa0c44c-6c4c-45dd-b73c-c76d770530f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"最低購入数量と価格帯を決める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8daa06d3-65c3-4728-b33f-90ce02435201","kind":"paragraph","order":200,"section_id":"sec_7fa0c44c-6c4c-45dd-b73c-c76d770530f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"前受金を得て量産設備を作る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0fe551b9-1d86-4b2d-ac63-d3d42d6c044e","kind":"paragraph","order":201,"section_id":"sec_7fa0c44c-6c4c-45dd-b73c-c76d770530f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"契約数量を量産する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a1c8a074-e224-47c1-b0f2-f3f9e739f326","kind":"paragraph","order":202,"section_id":"sec_7fa0c44c-6c4c-45dd-b73c-c76d770530f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"歩留まり改善でコストを下げる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f2de53e2-d781-481d-9b3f-fb5c6f0fcff9","kind":"paragraph","order":203,"section_id":"sec_7fa0c44c-6c4c-45dd-b73c-c76d770530f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"新しい用途と顧客を増やす","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_74cd5751-3e70-4079-89dc-62cb635a0a09","kind":"paragraph","order":204,"section_id":"sec_7fa0c44c-6c4c-45dd-b73c-c76d770530f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"次世代製品について新しいLTAを締結する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_916a82e7-cafc-4e53-9fc6-b37492d8481e","kind":"paragraph","order":205,"section_id":"sec_7fa0c44c-6c4c-45dd-b73c-c76d770530f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_170f600f-38bc-4f9d-9dce-ac12ee230100","kind":"paragraph","order":206,"section_id":"sec_7fa0c44c-6c4c-45dd-b73c-c76d770530f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来：大量に作って安くし、その後に用途を探す","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8da09335-9c81-4d75-b070-2979235c1b35","kind":"paragraph","order":207,"section_id":"sec_7fa0c44c-6c4c-45dd-b73c-c76d770530f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"今後：用途と顧客を確保し、契約の範囲で量産して安くする","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_30740547-bc14-40c0-a063-2bfc5b33b98c","kind":"paragraph","order":208,"section_id":"sec_7fa0c44c-6c4c-45dd-b73c-c76d770530f6","character_id":null,"markdown":"という順序になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8afea9e2-aa1c-45fa-baac-6e7ddac1f1ba","kind":"heading","order":209,"section_id":"sec_44f38d06-8611-47ce-9a5a-75671c7a562b","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第10部　AIDCだけではない長期契約の顧客","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8100a8b5-10f9-4988-906d-2d725f5334b4","kind":"paragraph","order":210,"section_id":"sec_44f38d06-8611-47ce-9a5a-75671c7a562b","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のLTAを主導しているのは、ハイパースケーラー、AIサーバー企業、データセンター事業者である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9353c36e-4445-48c6-ae0e-84ba346c1191","kind":"paragraph","order":211,"section_id":"sec_44f38d06-8611-47ce-9a5a-75671c7a562b","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしメモリを必要とするのはAIDCだけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ac0c90d-5d5f-418d-aa71-563b8be734ef","kind":"paragraph","order":212,"section_id":"sec_44f38d06-8611-47ce-9a5a-75671c7a562b","character_id":null,"markdown":"スマートフォン・PC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b3294112-f003-4f39-a61c-1760d61ffa10","kind":"paragraph","order":213,"section_id":"sec_44f38d06-8611-47ce-9a5a-75671c7a562b","character_id":null,"markdown":"LPDDR、UFS、zNAND-O、クライアントSSDが必要になる。販売変動が大きいため、5年固定数量より1～3年の容量予約、価格レンジ、最低購入量が中心になりやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0ff124e-ef20-4486-9511-3a57782246c3","kind":"paragraph","order":214,"section_id":"sec_44f38d06-8611-47ce-9a5a-75671c7a562b","character_id":null,"markdown":"自動車","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_27f53583-1cee-4e36-812d-a112ed3637b9","kind":"paragraph","order":215,"section_id":"sec_44f38d06-8611-47ce-9a5a-75671c7a562b","character_id":null,"markdown":"製品寿命が長く、認証変更が難しいため、長期供給保証と相性がよい。車載AIが高度化すれば、LPDDR、GDDR、NAND、将来のHBF型製品が増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3437bbbc-e14e-4345-a0bb-ec90f5bc686c","kind":"paragraph","order":216,"section_id":"sec_44f38d06-8611-47ce-9a5a-75671c7a562b","character_id":null,"markdown":"ロボット・工場","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c15571b-dd21-4911-ae15-ad25bffc0e5d","kind":"paragraph","order":217,"section_id":"sec_44f38d06-8611-47ce-9a5a-75671c7a562b","character_id":null,"markdown":"実機では低遅延DRAMと大容量NANDが必要になり、中央側では学習、シミュレーション、デジタルツイン用にHBM、DDR、SSDが必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8f9c7e3-457c-4b99-87f2-cf5c9ec43aba","kind":"paragraph","order":218,"section_id":"sec_44f38d06-8611-47ce-9a5a-75671c7a562b","character_id":null,"markdown":"基地局・通信エッジ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_527dba85-6105-42fc-8fb3-85b4f9d33920","kind":"paragraph","order":219,"section_id":"sec_44f38d06-8611-47ce-9a5a-75671c7a562b","character_id":null,"markdown":"フィジカルAIでは全処理を遠隔クラウドへ送れない。遅延、安全性、通信障害への対応から、基地局や地域データセンターにも計算資源とメモリが必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ed85962-0e58-4702-99f7-61e2ff8c69e8","kind":"paragraph","order":220,"section_id":"sec_44f38d06-8611-47ce-9a5a-75671c7a562b","character_id":null,"markdown":"科学AI","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f2bcb12a-73d6-48eb-8ff8-2512192d8d70","kind":"paragraph","order":221,"section_id":"sec_44f38d06-8611-47ce-9a5a-75671c7a562b","character_id":null,"markdown":"新薬、材料、半導体設計、数学、気象などでは、AIが自律的に仮説を作り、シミュレーションと検証を繰り返す。人間の利用人数ではなく、探索空間の大きさによって計算需要が増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2aa26b67-1970-4234-a9a5-0ba769a993cc","kind":"paragraph","order":222,"section_id":"sec_44f38d06-8611-47ce-9a5a-75671c7a562b","character_id":null,"markdown":"国家AI・防衛・主権クラウド","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6a27182d-7542-495a-a7a0-153e0deb92f4","kind":"paragraph","order":223,"section_id":"sec_44f38d06-8611-47ce-9a5a-75671c7a562b","character_id":null,"markdown":"長期供給、安全保障、国内在庫が重視されるため、価格より確実な供給枠が優先されやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_25eb671f-dc4b-474a-8201-814a9a9980f5","kind":"paragraph","order":224,"section_id":"sec_44f38d06-8611-47ce-9a5a-75671c7a562b","character_id":null,"markdown":"この顧客層が広がれば、メモリ会社は一部のハイパースケーラーに依存せず、用途ごとに複数のLTAを積み上げられる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_50beb45e-0716-4959-96fe-03418e664fbf","kind":"heading","order":225,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第11部　AppleとWMCM――性能向上と供給柔軟性の交換","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71f24338-0767-4ca4-91de-7df91c0fab2c","kind":"paragraph","order":226,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"次世代Apple A20では、TSMCのWMCMを使い、SoCとDRAMをRDL上でより深く統合するとの報道がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d4c9fff1-678f-48b7-8c77-3fbe2da9dd58","kind":"paragraph","order":227,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"WMCMは配線を短くし、電力、信号品質、熱設計、パッケージ厚を改善できる可能性がある。ただしAppleとTSMCが最終構造を正式発表したわけではなく、現時点ではサプライチェーン情報である。(TrendForce)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aad5d9f7-b080-4f7c-90a8-6eddabf38ad0","kind":"paragraph","order":228,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来のPoPでは、完成したLPDDRパッケージをSoCの上に重ねる。複数メーカーを認証しておけば、外部端子仕様を合わせることで比較的切り替えやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a010038b-3105-44c3-b68c-6ac91a4b5b28","kind":"paragraph","order":229,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"WMCMで裸のDRAMダイをRDLへ直接組み込む場合、Samsung、SK hynix、Micronで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_26880581-1928-40b2-9b28-04e4e59d7c55","kind":"paragraph","order":230,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"ダイ寸法","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7138acc6-876d-4da1-9583-ad219aae7bdc","kind":"paragraph","order":231,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"パッド位置","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d6f3f519-0e1d-4bd4-90c2-0e5f909ed754","kind":"paragraph","order":232,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"バンプ間隔","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b7ba504d-49aa-4e3b-80fa-9c7e9c13fc08","kind":"paragraph","order":233,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"ダイ厚","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e48c6216-1a22-4dbf-a1b2-49369ee73ecd","kind":"paragraph","order":234,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"電源配置","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_35a7839f-f479-44d5-92b7-bbe3b821d391","kind":"paragraph","order":235,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"熱特性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7948bf04-292b-44c5-8a45-706e63850bac","kind":"paragraph","order":236,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"テスト条件","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_989d6539-7692-43cf-a123-2bf349555c9f","kind":"paragraph","order":237,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"が異なれば、メーカー別にRDLマスク、実装レシピ、検査工程を用意する必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_77fd5852-2f44-46c0-a1d6-71c1c26f2d12","kind":"paragraph","order":238,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"メーカーごとの差は非公開であり、ここは技術的推論を含む。しかし供給不足時には、次の問題が起こり得る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3d8a6c11-21f4-4c8e-9bae-c37c503df9ca","kind":"paragraph","order":239,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"DRAMの総ビット数は足りている\nしかしSamsung版WMCM用が不足","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33f6808c-7777-4d7a-a087-22e172cd7e68","kind":"paragraph","order":240,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"SK hynix製DRAMはある\nしかしSK hynix版RDLラインが満杯","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_45297e46-e59e-4d5e-8896-6a9386760256","kind":"paragraph","order":241,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"Micron製DRAMはある\nしかしApple認証が間に合わない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0edcec08-2e4c-461c-bb39-b8ca0b7b6ae3","kind":"paragraph","order":242,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_86735383-90f8-4afd-b804-820ae3fd4501","kind":"math","order":243,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{市場に存在するDRAM量}\\neq\\text{Appleが実際に使えるDRAM量}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7cb44a43-3655-4d08-a208-128d66301994","kind":"paragraph","order":244,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad22812f-107e-4f43-b6b3-2049c7bc8f9d","kind":"paragraph","order":245,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"AppleはKioxiaの2025年度売上高の20.4％を占める巨大顧客であり、資金力と購入量では非常に強い。一方、WMCMが深く統合されるほど、DRAM供給会社とTSMCパッケージ能力を早い段階で固定しなければならない。(Kioxia Holdings)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_024b4019-df09-44b2-9dfe-3b1f24597a0e","kind":"paragraph","order":246,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"一般的なAndroidメーカーはPoPによって技術的には調達先を変更しやすい。ただしAppleほど前受金や巨大LTAを提示できないため、供給割当そのものを確保できない可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_04dc154c-8f09-479a-8090-d089cb6a9ae2","kind":"paragraph","order":247,"section_id":"sec_d3cf3df9-a0eb-4c98-ab2e-132ec66eb542","character_id":null,"markdown":"Appleは構造的には不利だが、財務力で補える。小規模Androidメーカーは構造的には柔軟だが、交渉力が弱いという逆転が起こる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6eb9517d-cb32-4d33-b90b-2026795e58d4","kind":"heading","order":248,"section_id":"sec_42247de9-a7cb-44e5-b916-62383bf35fdb","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第12部　2028年にファブが増えても、直ちに余るとは限らない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0483cf5-a605-4623-942a-092a2b42284e","kind":"paragraph","order":249,"section_id":"sec_42247de9-a7cb-44e5-b916-62383bf35fdb","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来の見方では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6125a706-015b-4963-acba-aa5059fc8792","kind":"paragraph","order":250,"section_id":"sec_42247de9-a7cb-44e5-b916-62383bf35fdb","character_id":null,"markdown":"2028年に新ファブが稼働する＝供給過剰になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d17fbcf-4754-4fc1-b330-6bb703c7994c","kind":"paragraph","order":251,"section_id":"sec_42247de9-a7cb-44e5-b916-62383bf35fdb","character_id":null,"markdown":"と考えられやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b086d25-f9cd-45b8-8265-fdebf206f518","kind":"paragraph","order":252,"section_id":"sec_42247de9-a7cb-44e5-b916-62383bf35fdb","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、新しい工場の大部分がLTA顧客向けなら、市場に余剰品は出ない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f1727fb8-8697-4358-91e0-e83902a2cc80","kind":"paragraph","order":253,"section_id":"sec_42247de9-a7cb-44e5-b916-62383bf35fdb","character_id":null,"markdown":"重要なのはファブの面積ではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_36616b46-a78f-48cf-bc0e-0c3407e964bb","kind":"paragraph","order":254,"section_id":"sec_42247de9-a7cb-44e5-b916-62383bf35fdb","character_id":null,"markdown":"契約済み能力の比率","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c216d0fc-76ef-4438-8351-736e4fb6f2b2","kind":"paragraph","order":255,"section_id":"sec_42247de9-a7cb-44e5-b916-62383bf35fdb","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際の良品ビット増加","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_664749a7-b364-4100-8c2f-ace70c7a589e","kind":"paragraph","order":256,"section_id":"sec_42247de9-a7cb-44e5-b916-62383bf35fdb","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMへの転換量","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4a53b991-7c11-46eb-9814-e34065e75cae","kind":"paragraph","order":257,"section_id":"sec_42247de9-a7cb-44e5-b916-62383bf35fdb","character_id":null,"markdown":"新製品の歩留まり","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c1abfdf9-fd93-4ae0-a019-c02c57b78aeb","kind":"paragraph","order":258,"section_id":"sec_42247de9-a7cb-44e5-b916-62383bf35fdb","character_id":null,"markdown":"顧客別の供給予約","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3fbef133-ca7a-40d8-97e2-93b41c0d2adb","kind":"paragraph","order":259,"section_id":"sec_42247de9-a7cb-44e5-b916-62383bf35fdb","character_id":null,"markdown":"契約外のスポット数量","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d7297b7-0366-4c0d-b983-b2c69d67ec2a","kind":"paragraph","order":260,"section_id":"sec_42247de9-a7cb-44e5-b916-62383bf35fdb","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c9ebe604-5e72-4a28-9fd7-d593f125b3e9","kind":"paragraph","order":261,"section_id":"sec_42247de9-a7cb-44e5-b916-62383bf35fdb","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えば生産能力が30％増えても、その全量に購入保証が付いていれば、供給過剰にはならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d94d135-e11c-4483-b4d1-e05cb4418367","kind":"paragraph","order":262,"section_id":"sec_42247de9-a7cb-44e5-b916-62383bf35fdb","character_id":null,"markdown":"逆に能力が10％しか増えなくても、顧客が契約更新時に数量を30％減らせば余る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e8c7555-af09-4f07-91dd-4da10f24218a","kind":"heading","order":263,"section_id":"sec_523707f5-1ca4-4752-9eca-73e42a944565","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第13部　2029～2030年が最大の節目","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0fe3006a-1dd6-4b18-8166-3b384eed28ba","kind":"paragraph","order":264,"section_id":"sec_523707f5-1ca4-4752-9eca-73e42a944565","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在の大型LTAの多くは、4～5年程度の契約である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_634b1a36-8a84-4dcd-a33d-3adcf6cb961f","kind":"paragraph","order":265,"section_id":"sec_523707f5-1ca4-4752-9eca-73e42a944565","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年前後に締結された契約群は、2029～2030年前後に更新の判断時期へ近づく。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eef6f6bb-366c-4a9a-b5d2-e138cd39c42e","kind":"paragraph","order":266,"section_id":"sec_523707f5-1ca4-4752-9eca-73e42a944565","character_id":null,"markdown":"すべてが同じ日に終了するわけではないが、次のメモリサイクルを判断する最重要期間になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_30c904bd-18fc-4935-bef3-bc87f4f1f1e1","kind":"paragraph","order":267,"section_id":"sec_523707f5-1ca4-4752-9eca-73e42a944565","character_id":null,"markdown":"更新時に見るべき指標","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eb114118-7851-4f8d-996e-a8d81a92f4a3","kind":"table","order":268,"section_id":"sec_523707f5-1ca4-4752-9eca-73e42a944565","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 指標 | 強気 | 弱気 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 契約数量 | 増加 | 減少 |\n| 価格下限 | 維持・上昇 | 大幅低下 |\n| 契約期間 | 5年以上 | 短期化 |\n| 前受金 | 増加 | 減少・返還 |\n| 顧客数 | ロボット、車、通信へ拡大 | ハイパースケーラーに集中 |\n| HBF | HBMへの追加搭載 | HBM削減だけに使われる |\n| zNAND-O | スマホ・PCへ定着 | 高級機の限定採用 |\n| CapEx | 契約に裏付けられる | 需要予測だけで増える |\n| AI収益 | CapExを上回って成長 | 減価償却負担が急増 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7643076e-de7b-4dcd-bd93-c9b7c5d752ab","kind":"paragraph","order":269,"section_id":"sec_523707f5-1ca4-4752-9eca-73e42a944565","character_id":null,"markdown":"SK hynixのCEOは、2027年が過去最悪級の供給不足となり、需要が供給能力を上回る状態が2030年以降まで続く可能性を示している。ただし、これは企業経営者の見通しであり、確定した未来ではない。(Investing.com)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3aec571-15ca-4c79-9ae9-c0d2601e1dfb","kind":"paragraph","order":270,"section_id":"sec_523707f5-1ca4-4752-9eca-73e42a944565","character_id":null,"markdown":"TrendForceは、DRAMについては2027年も構造的な逼迫が続く一方、NANDは新能力の立ち上がりと民生需要次第で2027年後半から緩む可能性を示している。したがって、DRAM、HBM、企業向けSSD、汎用NANDを同じサイクルとして扱うべきではない。(TrendForce)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1932a891-6e7b-48fd-9a19-97414959d5fd","kind":"heading","order":271,"section_id":"sec_c0e902ab-f8e5-4869-b325-f6bde2b85686","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第14部　従来型のメモリ不況は来なくなるのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1cd7b476-b98f-4b29-be93-9f995357be48","kind":"paragraph","order":272,"section_id":"sec_c0e902ab-f8e5-4869-b325-f6bde2b85686","character_id":null,"markdown":"結論から言えば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_abc35547-53c7-4eae-a5c3-f37d912729dd","kind":"paragraph","order":273,"section_id":"sec_c0e902ab-f8e5-4869-b325-f6bde2b85686","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリ会社だけの無秩序な増産によって始まる、従来型の独立したメモリ不況は起こりにくくなる可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e086ab3-9d18-4051-af64-f8bffee06638","kind":"paragraph","order":274,"section_id":"sec_c0e902ab-f8e5-4869-b325-f6bde2b85686","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、サイクルが完全に消えるわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_565b2985-fad5-48d0-a07a-4fbef1fc2bcd","kind":"paragraph","order":275,"section_id":"sec_c0e902ab-f8e5-4869-b325-f6bde2b85686","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来型","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_596b4504-95bd-4877-826b-2123045bb64e","kind":"paragraph","order":276,"section_id":"sec_c0e902ab-f8e5-4869-b325-f6bde2b85686","character_id":null,"markdown":"価格上昇\n  ↓\n各社が無契約で能力増強\n  ↓\n供給過剰\n  ↓\nOEMが値下げ要求\n  ↓\n価格暴落\n  ↓\n設備投資停止・赤字","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c002fe50-9e24-462f-b2e5-8fd6a34e34c5","kind":"paragraph","order":277,"section_id":"sec_c0e902ab-f8e5-4869-b325-f6bde2b85686","character_id":null,"markdown":"LTA型","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_df02500f-9281-429d-bee4-8f26c13fb0d5","kind":"paragraph","order":278,"section_id":"sec_c0e902ab-f8e5-4869-b325-f6bde2b85686","character_id":null,"markdown":"顧客が将来数量を予約\n  ↓\n価格下限・上限を決定\n  ↓\n前受金・take-or-pay\n  ↓\n契約数量に合わせて設備投資\n  ↓\n利益を次世代技術へ再投資\n  ↓\n新用途を作り次のLTAを締結","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff3ffc99-7a4c-4cd1-b37a-d399dd9215d0","kind":"paragraph","order":279,"section_id":"sec_c0e902ab-f8e5-4869-b325-f6bde2b85686","character_id":null,"markdown":"この構造では、価格が無限に上昇するわけでも、短期間で原価まで崩れるわけでもない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_659f7440-a280-4678-b577-42f6a732b6c7","kind":"paragraph","order":280,"section_id":"sec_c0e902ab-f8e5-4869-b325-f6bde2b85686","character_id":null,"markdown":"価格上限と下限を持つ高いレンジの中で、需要に合わせて供給量が増える形になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9feda2f9-9b4e-413e-8a7c-ecbf686145d8","kind":"heading","order":281,"section_id":"sec_d3201fcd-8747-496c-afde-61e805088464","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第15部　次のメモリ不況はAIDC全体の不況と重なる可能性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b334591-c41f-4387-8db8-46283ae0d7a7","kind":"paragraph","order":282,"section_id":"sec_d3201fcd-8747-496c-afde-61e805088464","character_id":null,"markdown":"LTAによってメモリ会社独自の自爆サイクルが弱まるほど、次の大きな不況はAIインフラ全体と連動しやすくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a29dcde3-4da1-4798-be90-fa465308ec24","kind":"paragraph","order":283,"section_id":"sec_d3201fcd-8747-496c-afde-61e805088464","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_16f56d87-87dd-498b-897f-0691637ec10c","kind":"paragraph","order":284,"section_id":"sec_d3201fcd-8747-496c-afde-61e805088464","character_id":null,"markdown":"ハイパースケーラーのAI売上がCapExに追いつかない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c89791c1-014b-4cb2-8c3f-3efafd0efa7f","kind":"paragraph","order":285,"section_id":"sec_d3201fcd-8747-496c-afde-61e805088464","character_id":null,"markdown":"推論単価下落を利用量増加が補えない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_86db6bca-e317-4a78-a6d0-1f3dd3b5c4fc","kind":"paragraph","order":286,"section_id":"sec_d3201fcd-8747-496c-afde-61e805088464","character_id":null,"markdown":"電力・データセンター建設が止まる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_898d88b6-57f2-43f5-92fa-34d038e00579","kind":"paragraph","order":287,"section_id":"sec_d3201fcd-8747-496c-afde-61e805088464","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU・ASIC出荷が減る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f17342fa-a4f3-489d-82a2-8be04dd1ecc8","kind":"paragraph","order":288,"section_id":"sec_d3201fcd-8747-496c-afde-61e805088464","character_id":null,"markdown":"顧客が2030年のLTA数量を縮小する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af11f8bc-f27a-489e-a788-4e52be30b96b","kind":"paragraph","order":289,"section_id":"sec_d3201fcd-8747-496c-afde-61e805088464","character_id":null,"markdown":"新ファブが契約外能力として余る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c532031-90be-4450-bbeb-7b00821e33cf","kind":"paragraph","order":290,"section_id":"sec_d3201fcd-8747-496c-afde-61e805088464","character_id":null,"markdown":"という条件が重なれば、HBM、DDR、NAND、SSD、光通信、電源、冷却まで同時に調整局面へ入る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5fb6abb8-54f1-42e9-9e8a-de7c32bd5e48","kind":"paragraph","order":291,"section_id":"sec_d3201fcd-8747-496c-afde-61e805088464","character_id":null,"markdown":"次のメモリ不況は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_60ecf132-3905-4903-992b-39c659524f1d","kind":"paragraph","order":292,"section_id":"sec_d3201fcd-8747-496c-afde-61e805088464","character_id":null,"markdown":"NANDだけが余ったDRAM会社が増産し過ぎた","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ef9e99d-286e-44df-846e-f7748be227b3","kind":"paragraph","order":293,"section_id":"sec_d3201fcd-8747-496c-afde-61e805088464","character_id":null,"markdown":"という小さな出来事ではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e157276-20fe-4f15-9780-1033ce09f691","kind":"paragraph","order":294,"section_id":"sec_d3201fcd-8747-496c-afde-61e805088464","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI設備投資全体の期待収益率が低下した結果として起こる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_814210a7-ef63-4814-b38d-b16fc5881837","kind":"paragraph","order":295,"section_id":"sec_d3201fcd-8747-496c-afde-61e805088464","character_id":null,"markdown":"可能性が高くなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e12d3b98-10be-4e05-bb81-3a3dacffd7b2","kind":"paragraph","order":296,"section_id":"sec_d3201fcd-8747-496c-afde-61e805088464","character_id":null,"markdown":"もっとも、汎用NANDや民生向け製品はAIDCより先に需給が緩む可能性があり、すべてのメモリ価格が完全に同期するわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88f9481c-3bbf-4d27-a216-416a9e17f5c4","kind":"heading","order":297,"section_id":"sec_aab1c757-8b80-4bd0-9967-5a8e170bcd40","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第16部　2030年以降の延長戦","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aba49330-044d-42c5-9c81-b6f95edc2808","kind":"paragraph","order":298,"section_id":"sec_aab1c757-8b80-4bd0-9967-5a8e170bcd40","character_id":null,"markdown":"2030年までに現在のクラウドAIと作業AIがある程度成熟し、ハイパースケーラーがAI設備投資から安定収益を得られるようになった場合、次の焦点は新しい計算需要への受け渡しになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_be8116b4-5e8e-4bd0-a9f4-110a5ca6325d","kind":"paragraph","order":299,"section_id":"sec_aab1c757-8b80-4bd0-9967-5a8e170bcd40","character_id":null,"markdown":"延長戦を生む可能性がある需要","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_813ee897-afb8-42f0-992b-5cfbfc49801a","kind":"paragraph","order":300,"section_id":"sec_aab1c757-8b80-4bd0-9967-5a8e170bcd40","character_id":null,"markdown":"作業AI","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19fec807-dd94-4347-b763-8da8084a8741","kind":"paragraph","order":301,"section_id":"sec_aab1c757-8b80-4bd0-9967-5a8e170bcd40","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIがチャットへの回答だけでなく、コード、資料、メール、会計、設計、検証を自律的に実行すれば、人間が操作していない時間にも計算を続ける。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d2378e1c-a6c1-44a8-a027-28f49db77497","kind":"paragraph","order":302,"section_id":"sec_aab1c757-8b80-4bd0-9967-5a8e170bcd40","character_id":null,"markdown":"フィジカルAI","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_221dc3cf-d03c-489b-ad0a-341fc91398d4","kind":"paragraph","order":303,"section_id":"sec_aab1c757-8b80-4bd0-9967-5a8e170bcd40","character_id":null,"markdown":"ロボット、自動車、工場、倉庫、建設、医療機器では、中央AIDCの学習需要と、現場機器のLPDDR・NAND需要が同時に増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2947fbe2-d885-46e0-b721-43be805cb0f3","kind":"paragraph","order":304,"section_id":"sec_aab1c757-8b80-4bd0-9967-5a8e170bcd40","character_id":null,"markdown":"科学AI","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7dad2cab-e3aa-420a-a11d-ef1d35950c77","kind":"paragraph","order":305,"section_id":"sec_aab1c757-8b80-4bd0-9967-5a8e170bcd40","character_id":null,"markdown":"新薬、新素材、回路、数学、気象などを自律探索するAIは、人間の人数ではなく、利用可能な計算量によって探索範囲を広げる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_34cbedf3-678e-41de-8ca8-a56e43bff65c","kind":"paragraph","order":306,"section_id":"sec_aab1c757-8b80-4bd0-9967-5a8e170bcd40","character_id":null,"markdown":"通信エッジ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_609bb022-9a18-41b9-b066-26b60efc1d21","kind":"paragraph","order":307,"section_id":"sec_aab1c757-8b80-4bd0-9967-5a8e170bcd40","character_id":null,"markdown":"基地局、地域データセンター、工場内サーバーへAI推論が分散し、DDR、LPDDR、GDDR、zNAND、SSDが必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c1ae68b-84ef-4e7a-8a70-11c77f94258b","kind":"paragraph","order":308,"section_id":"sec_aab1c757-8b80-4bd0-9967-5a8e170bcd40","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBFとzNANDによる新市場","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e3d89eda-8b16-4060-b82d-f759e8f81e51","kind":"paragraph","order":309,"section_id":"sec_aab1c757-8b80-4bd0-9967-5a8e170bcd40","character_id":null,"markdown":"高価なDRAMだけでは成立しなかった大容量AI機器が、安価な中間メモリによって商業化できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a6441740-675b-49e0-9d80-b5c778b89558","kind":"paragraph","order":310,"section_id":"sec_aab1c757-8b80-4bd0-9967-5a8e170bcd40","character_id":null,"markdown":"この需要が2028～2030年にまだ小さくても、顧客が2031～2035年の供給枠を予約し始めれば、新しいLTAを形成できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_394d7b0b-4ab9-4826-ae23-e4872d0778f8","kind":"paragraph","order":311,"section_id":"sec_aab1c757-8b80-4bd0-9967-5a8e170bcd40","character_id":null,"markdown":"本格的な延長戦の合図は、ロボット販売台数が爆発することだけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3eb8dbb5-da1f-4c0e-9d45-57deb402d7b9","kind":"paragraph","order":312,"section_id":"sec_aab1c757-8b80-4bd0-9967-5a8e170bcd40","character_id":null,"markdown":"自動車、通信、ロボット、科学AI企業が、将来のメモリ能力へ前受金を払い始めること","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_04d76785-a447-49e4-a433-39c814cf102d","kind":"paragraph","order":313,"section_id":"sec_aab1c757-8b80-4bd0-9967-5a8e170bcd40","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e691c75-44e9-4105-8abc-54b1bf0c98f8","kind":"heading","order":314,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 結論","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8791b5ec-fceb-488d-9571-dc1bcdca34b7","kind":"paragraph","order":315,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリ産業で起きている変化は、単なる価格高騰ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_34a3e558-e450-4f32-bf7b-0d909a40a1bf","kind":"paragraph","order":316,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"Sandiskは販売ビットの半分から3分の2をLTAへ移そうとしている。SK hynixは約10社と複数年契約を結び、Samsungは大規模増産を進めながら60～70％のLTA化を視野に入れる。キオクシアも、ビット出荷量だけではなくASP、製品構成、顧客コミットメント、資本効率を重視している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c0f9711-60b5-49c1-b241-c39ec52abc30","kind":"paragraph","order":317,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"これまでのメモリ会社は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_96756b10-afc0-4826-8662-2fe6faac5349","kind":"paragraph","order":318,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"工場は自分で建てる需要リスクも自分で負う完成後は最安値を要求される","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f3d4344-4b98-4640-b6fe-b10858c53fc2","kind":"paragraph","order":319,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"という立場だった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_58485abf-9355-45f7-a12b-7ebe3aade875","kind":"paragraph","order":320,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"今後は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1245f612-acf4-4668-945a-15f8057ab94a","kind":"paragraph","order":321,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"将来の供給が必要なら、顧客も最低購入量、価格下限、前受金を受け入れる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7eb0d4bf-87da-4201-9b13-f6d6681ffd60","kind":"paragraph","order":322,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"という関係へ変わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3e5bbca5-314f-4d9a-82b6-ab168e8ff542","kind":"paragraph","order":323,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBFはHBM不足を補い、希少なHBMを最も重要なデータへ集中させる。zNAND-OはLPDDRとUFSの間に入り、スマートフォンやPCの容量を低コストで増やす可能性を持つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d2a2a77-5b05-4aed-8538-da41f2d12f2c","kind":"paragraph","order":324,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、新しいメモリを大量生産し過ぎれば再び価格が崩れる。生産しなければ価格が下がらず市場も育たない。このジレンマを、アンカー顧客、最低購入契約、価格帯、前受金によって解こうとしている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dced3c40-06e1-4464-85f0-b29a9d4b6d63","kind":"paragraph","order":325,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、2028年にファブが増えることだけを見て供給過剰を判断するのは不十分である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ded3a78-636e-43ff-af60-dd6037f9da1c","kind":"paragraph","order":326,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"最大の節目は2029～2030年だ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c1c50a33-bcf8-426e-a0ac-96c1831c97ef","kind":"paragraph","order":327,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在の契約が、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f118924-57b4-4e7b-ac1d-eed135a72044","kind":"paragraph","order":328,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"どの数量で更新されるか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4fa32121-69f5-4c83-900d-f087cac7b07c","kind":"paragraph","order":329,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"価格下限を維持できるか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7dfc0635-35f5-4cae-98d4-37c38eae7a7c","kind":"paragraph","order":330,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIDC以外の顧客が加わるか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_03a0cdc9-3153-4c84-86cc-b30a22410405","kind":"paragraph","order":331,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBFとzNANDが追加需要を作るか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd542f89-4fbf-47de-b391-5f158c7321c6","kind":"paragraph","order":332,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"作業AI、フィジカルAI、科学AIが次の計算需要になるか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff41a5ee-296b-4c93-aa1f-b148dcd7fbcd","kind":"paragraph","order":333,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"が問われる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aa73ea0b-dd78-475c-b6d9-08fd5f001adf","kind":"paragraph","order":334,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI投資が続き、契約更新時に需要が広がっていれば、かつてのようなメモリ会社単独の供給過剰不況は起こりにくい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4583fab2-7903-4a5d-8874-9e009da8ac00","kind":"paragraph","order":335,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"反対に、AI設備投資の収益性が崩れれば、次のメモリ不況はメモリだけの不況ではなく、GPU、ネットワーク、光、電力、冷却を含むAIDC設備投資全体の不況として現れる可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5118f0e-c09b-4d1e-bea4-03be531aa000","kind":"paragraph","order":336,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリサイクルは消滅するのではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71b733c3-b66f-49ac-a8e5-4b3c003fa8d5","kind":"paragraph","order":337,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"四半期ごとの在庫とスポット価格に支配されたサイクルから、4～5年のLTA、ファブ投資、AI設備投資、技術世代に連動する長期インフラサイクルへ変わろうとしている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5aa5d73a-6297-408d-a3a3-daf106f44eb5","kind":"paragraph","order":338,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"2030年は終点ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b73a76e-2b51-4d4e-a9b5-ed02f5ffcb25","kind":"paragraph","order":339,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"作業AIからフィジカルAI、科学AI、エッジAIへ需要を受け渡すことができれば、そこから次の長期契約と次世代ファブを伴う延長戦が始まる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_de712ec9-743b-4ca3-a4c5-1e80a80df0a1","kind":"paragraph","order":340,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"追補：Rubin Ultraのメモリ削減は需要弱化ではない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_393e2c4f-2f11-41cd-bc6a-c4284ae92e24","kind":"paragraph","order":341,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM・SOCAMM2不足、光スケールアップ、HBF階層化の本当の関係","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e42f03bf-cbac-4107-bad9-03e08bcf815b","kind":"paragraph","order":342,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"Rubin UltraでHBMやSOCAMM2の搭載量が削減される可能性が報じられている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_32b1a0c2-8153-4395-8350-a1531a253082","kind":"paragraph","order":343,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"表面的には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4edc42ea-78ee-4a31-9fa8-ffd5a44a11d9","kind":"paragraph","order":344,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVIDIAが光接続によるラック全体の効率化を進めるため、1GPU当たりのメモリを減らした","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_22e3b863-60bf-4732-a0ce-53664a275b96","kind":"paragraph","order":345,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"ようにも見える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_be7cade3-b2d1-4700-9d26-c7466a050d67","kind":"paragraph","order":346,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、現時点の情報を総合すると、より実態に近い解釈は次のようになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c9507434-c8a2-4995-8de0-9aab7786c3ed","kind":"paragraph","order":347,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"光接続によってHBMが不要になったのではない。HBM・LPDDR系メモリの供給がNVIDIAの希望数量に追いつかず、少ないメモリをより多くのGPUへ配分するため、光接続、巨大NVLinkドメイン、階層メモリを使わざるを得なくなっている可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6fa80e86-26a8-4b50-8e09-d3d31e32f072","kind":"paragraph","order":348,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"これはHBM需要の弱気材料というより、メモリ不足の深刻さを示す材料である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ecb4879-3ce1-487a-a2ea-5096f5330fca","kind":"paragraph","order":349,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方で長期的には、この供給制約をきっかけとして、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d282b53e-f589-4426-83d7-bd9c4aef80e2","kind":"paragraph","order":350,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"ローカルHBM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0ea745e2-7b2f-455f-a98c-1749a3a62b3e","kind":"paragraph","order":351,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPU側SOCAMM2","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_86a4da2e-cf57-415d-96ef-62647f370374","kind":"paragraph","order":352,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBF","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bb3aad65-2a53-4fc5-ac27-df6dee636b4a","kind":"paragraph","order":353,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"SSD","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ca591841-199d-4f2a-b1dc-c2ebe02a482f","kind":"paragraph","order":354,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU間光接続","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d0bc662c-3c74-4415-bf91-a1d73bf0f1cd","kind":"paragraph","order":355,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"を組み合わせる階層型AIシステムが発達し、1GPU当たりのHBM容量増加が抑えられる可能性もある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_514f96bc-53ec-473f-864b-9824199800ae","kind":"paragraph","order":356,"section_id":"sec_57a82721-14c0-44fc-a0a7-42f7f64a4e00","character_id":null,"markdown":"短期的には「不足への対応」、長期的には「新しいアーキテクチャへの移行」である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0d46d7e-ae8f-42d9-87ea-74b0ce4bc83e","kind":"heading","order":357,"section_id":"sec_6d3ed103-9e85-401b-935d-5d5e82ca5ead","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 1．確定情報とサプライチェーン情報を分ける","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e654e40a-1bed-4ae3-b39b-e36fd7325f4c","kind":"paragraph","order":358,"section_id":"sec_6d3ed103-9e85-401b-935d-5d5e82ca5ead","character_id":null,"markdown":"最初に、何が公式情報で、何が観測情報なのかを整理する必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ffb93daf-2c79-4b29-b16f-51d0adf436eb","kind":"paragraph","order":359,"section_id":"sec_6d3ed103-9e85-401b-935d-5d5e82ca5ead","character_id":null,"markdown":"公式に確認されていること","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9a0c06bc-26ba-4a69-a159-f0a90cfdbff7","kind":"paragraph","order":360,"section_id":"sec_6d3ed103-9e85-401b-935d-5d5e82ca5ead","character_id":null,"markdown":"通常のVera Rubin GPUは、1GPU当たり最大288GBのHBM4と、最大22TB/sの総メモリ帯域を持つ。NVIDIAは、長いコンテキストや対話型推論では実効メモリ性能がシステム効率を左右すると明記している。(NVIDIA Developer)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_77523aca-1c6a-4d89-b746-6d62b0e8be61","kind":"paragraph","order":361,"section_id":"sec_6d3ed103-9e85-401b-935d-5d5e82ca5ead","character_id":null,"markdown":"SK hynixとMicronは、Vera Rubin向け192GB SOCAMM2の量産を開始している。SK hynix製品はLPDDR5Xを基盤とし、従来のRDIMMに比べて帯域が2倍超、電力効率が75％超改善するとされる。Micronも192GB品を含むSOCAMM2を量産し、Vera CPU当たり最大2TB、約1.2TB/sの構成を可能にすると説明している。(SK hynix Newsroom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f2c81f88-8aff-4e35-a931-3014e86d11c2","kind":"paragraph","order":362,"section_id":"sec_6d3ed103-9e85-401b-935d-5d5e82ca5ead","character_id":null,"markdown":"Rubin Ultra NVL576についてNVIDIAが公式に公表しているのは、72GPUラックを8基接続し、576GPUを一つのNVLinkドメインにまとめ、ラック間には銅配線と直接光接続を使うという構造である。Rubin Ultraの最終的なHBM容量・積層数は、まだ公式には公表されていない。(NVIDIA Developer)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1409da17-3a2c-436c-986f-4637a8888b00","kind":"paragraph","order":363,"section_id":"sec_6d3ed103-9e85-401b-935d-5d5e82ca5ead","character_id":null,"markdown":"TrendForceが報じていること","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bffe9dcf-952f-42e4-82a4-0f78c265ee90","kind":"paragraph","order":364,"section_id":"sec_6d3ed103-9e85-401b-935d-5d5e82ca5ead","character_id":null,"markdown":"TrendForceによると、Rubin Ultraは当初12-Hi HBM4Eを基本設計としていたが、2026年第3四半期から、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eaab9d2e-13fe-49fe-a6ff-3ad96c99d205","kind":"paragraph","order":365,"section_id":"sec_6d3ed103-9e85-401b-935d-5d5e82ca5ead","character_id":null,"markdown":"8-Hi HBM4E","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_583b71d9-572e-4f96-9fef-8f9974b3cfbb","kind":"paragraph","order":366,"section_id":"sec_6d3ed103-9e85-401b-935d-5d5e82ca5ead","character_id":null,"markdown":"12-Hi HBM4","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ac5fe86-f1f0-46d6-aa2f-2a29e602dd57","kind":"paragraph","order":367,"section_id":"sec_6d3ed103-9e85-401b-935d-5d5e82ca5ead","character_id":null,"markdown":"8-Hi HBM4","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33983fb3-4ae6-461e-9d18-b1ee1db7da68","kind":"paragraph","order":368,"section_id":"sec_6d3ed103-9e85-401b-935d-5d5e82ca5ead","character_id":null,"markdown":"も並行して評価するようになった。最終仕様は未決定である。変更理由として、2027年のDRAM供給不足、HBM4Eの認証時期、12-Hi品の歩留まり立ち上げが挙げられている。(TrendForce)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b072eb56-61be-406c-b191-9ad4326642ef","kind":"paragraph","order":369,"section_id":"sec_6d3ed103-9e85-401b-935d-5d5e82ca5ead","character_id":null,"markdown":"またTrendForceは、LPDDR5X不足を理由にNVIDIAがVera RubinのSOCAMM容量を半減させたとも報じている。2027年のHBMビット出荷量は前年比50～60％増える見込みだが、それでも需要増加には追いつかないという。(TrendForce)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1026f8e2-5721-4f42-a38e-714af5288ae5","kind":"paragraph","order":370,"section_id":"sec_6d3ed103-9e85-401b-935d-5d5e82ca5ead","character_id":null,"markdown":"GFHKノートとして伝えられていること","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f7d0c51-037e-4a7f-9147-59ea3b8f3631","kind":"paragraph","order":371,"section_id":"sec_6d3ed103-9e85-401b-935d-5d5e82ca5ead","character_id":null,"markdown":"Jukan氏が要約したGFHKノートでは、SOCAMM2構成がさらに64GBまで削減され、NVIDIAが192GB構成を前提に要求した数量に対して、メモリ会社が供給可能と回答したのは60～70％程度だったとされている。さらに、Rubin Ultraでは8-Hiだけでなく、12-Hi HBM4E SKUも引き続き検討されているという。(X (formerly Twitter))","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5e55309-d193-47e6-b49a-017b824ed863","kind":"paragraph","order":372,"section_id":"sec_6d3ed103-9e85-401b-935d-5d5e82ca5ead","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、64GBや60～70％という数字はNVIDIAやメモリ会社の公式発表ではない。また「64GB」が1モジュール当たりなのか、CPU当たりの構成なのか、特定SKUの割当量なのかも公開情報だけでは判別できない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_36854ea2-2fca-4b14-bcb2-c1ad915c9e05","kind":"paragraph","order":373,"section_id":"sec_6d3ed103-9e85-401b-935d-5d5e82ca5ead","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、これらは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_10e75e19-9b6c-45ef-a2e9-b360aafefe8d","kind":"paragraph","order":374,"section_id":"sec_6d3ed103-9e85-401b-935d-5d5e82ca5ead","character_id":null,"markdown":"方向性を理解するうえで重要なサプライチェーン情報だが、最終仕様としては未確認","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6630d45f-83c6-4d95-bbb4-4ba376c7ae6f","kind":"paragraph","order":375,"section_id":"sec_6d3ed103-9e85-401b-935d-5d5e82ca5ead","character_id":null,"markdown":"と扱う必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_457e82f2-dfcb-4575-a1d1-406d9ce46c60","kind":"heading","order":376,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 2．SOCAMM2削減は需要問題ではなく、供給可能ビットの問題","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_32123296-69a7-4732-9e5f-8a13991c4288","kind":"paragraph","order":377,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"SOCAMM2はHBMではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8ea75f5-d886-4cca-b511-6fe49e3adcc9","kind":"paragraph","order":378,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"Vera CPUに接続されるLPDDR5Xベースのサーバー用メモリであり、CPU側の大容量・低消費電力メモリとして、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d39d7be-7895-49d9-925e-a869b21a35cc","kind":"paragraph","order":379,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"データ前処理","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_faee70ba-f303-4bd9-a39c-2e26f761ce0c","kind":"paragraph","order":380,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPU側のワーキングセット","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d1d18302-c2c3-456a-82fa-e53eca972808","kind":"paragraph","order":381,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPUへ送るデータのステージング","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2571580a-698d-4415-9d94-757e5cf78b52","kind":"paragraph","order":382,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"埋め込みテーブル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d3e44be0-ade5-44e1-aa4f-15e53d17c28a","kind":"paragraph","order":383,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"システム管理","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ed27c7f9-b627-48e0-a4c7-9ccab8f727e6","kind":"paragraph","order":384,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"一部のコンテキスト","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6cf0d8c7-76db-4f2a-8a31-9355ca1ee76f","kind":"paragraph","order":385,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"ストレージとGPUの間のバッファ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6c92deb-981b-4f6e-aad5-21e46545010a","kind":"paragraph","order":386,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"などを担う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f564bcae-30a9-4b14-bb4d-ff69817edae3","kind":"paragraph","order":387,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"192GB SOCAMM2はすでに量産可能な製品である。したがって問題は、192GBという製品を作れないことではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f30fe7ea-b785-45b3-a5a5-dc9a6a2bd3e7","kind":"paragraph","order":388,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVIDIAが予定するRubinの出荷台数すべてに、192GB構成を供給できるだけの量がない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8712efee-10b7-43a2-a0a6-8ef8e80d104e","kind":"paragraph","order":389,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"可能性である。(SK hynix Newsroom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3bde65ca-b3cf-493e-a7f8-d833990305be","kind":"paragraph","order":390,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"192GBから64GBへの削減が意味すること","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9ff14983-99a8-4402-95ae-80066fddd2f8","kind":"paragraph","order":391,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"単純化して、同じモジュール数、同じDRAM世代を使うと仮定する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_70961dc9-9fbf-49a8-9b4f-489d24ab12cd","kind":"paragraph","order":392,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"192GB構成　必要DRAMビット：3\n 64GB構成　必要DRAMビット：1","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c2788ab-fca4-43f3-bdb4-775b6d8a9caa","kind":"paragraph","order":393,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"1システム当たりの容量を192GBから64GBへ落とせば、理論上は同じDRAMビット量で約3倍のシステムへ供給できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_363c2441-bd84-4c51-a90a-71f5cb0e19a8","kind":"paragraph","order":394,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際には、パッケージ、モジュール構成、ダイ密度、歩留まり、認証条件が異なるため、出荷台数がそのまま3倍になるわけではない。それでも、ビット供給が制約になっている場合、搭載容量の削減が出荷台数を大きく増やすことは確かである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b3ab0860-02f4-4b7f-9a1f-b21c0cb8ba67","kind":"paragraph","order":395,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVIDIAから見ると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_34cb23ce-57ae-42fe-bf5e-7dcfeb964f23","kind":"paragraph","order":396,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"Rubinを100万台しか作れない192GB構成","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7da0431-0b40-4958-83b0-8923bdfc043a","kind":"paragraph","order":397,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"よりも、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8cd4a2eb-b3ed-4aa4-bd1a-a01c8de90bb6","kind":"paragraph","order":398,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"Rubinをより多く出荷できる64GB構成","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ce3d507b-d355-4cf7-afeb-c53606ec1f30","kind":"paragraph","order":399,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"を一部顧客向けに用意する方が合理的になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_76c546ea-a89d-4dcc-a6ec-4d6494eced77","kind":"paragraph","order":400,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは「192GBも必要なかった」という話ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c995c232-3ba4-4956-954a-09dd7bf3eb15","kind":"paragraph","order":401,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"192GBを積みたいが、積むとRubin全体の出荷台数が減ってしまう","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aca90c6b-b732-4f7d-977d-e8421239b8b8","kind":"paragraph","order":402,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"という問題である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2499c6d8-360e-4cc8-bbba-a74dc610ca56","kind":"paragraph","order":403,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"なぜSOCAMM2まで足りないのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c53e34f4-a577-4c56-8534-86aedf2fcfb3","kind":"paragraph","order":404,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"SOCAMM2は高密度LPDDR5Xを大量に使用する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c7bcbd02-a94d-4d79-a715-5e6c73e5e76b","kind":"paragraph","order":405,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"その生産には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3e9da1c0-f8b8-4653-886b-2c69dfc728cd","kind":"paragraph","order":406,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"1c世代など先端DRAMプロセス","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8654a36-135b-463c-88b8-00682a268d6a","kind":"paragraph","order":407,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"高密度ダイ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a626c2a6-38d9-4ecf-9cdf-9d55baf5a093","kind":"paragraph","order":408,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"モジュール向け選別","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6b69409-6844-47b9-8f87-e8374a257501","kind":"paragraph","order":409,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"電力・熱特性の認証","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1df116cf-f54c-4d8b-9e45-d89ac68e9fdd","kind":"paragraph","order":410,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"圧縮コネクタ対応","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_be5f4850-ecf5-4cdb-9182-68f2cf263106","kind":"paragraph","order":411,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"サーバー向け長期信頼性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd146743-f5fa-484c-8a6a-38d796715a34","kind":"paragraph","order":412,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVIDIAプラットフォーム認証","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_551031ab-c777-4d83-a1cd-84dc5df13f76","kind":"paragraph","order":413,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"が必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_53837644-df36-404b-ba9b-ad8709e839ce","kind":"paragraph","order":414,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じDRAMウエハー能力は、HBM、サーバーDDR、モバイルLPDDR、AI PC、自動車向けとも競合する。MicronはDRAM・NAND双方で需要が供給を大幅に上回り、逼迫が2027年を超えて続くと説明している。SK hynixのCEOも、顧客需要が生産能力を上回る状態が2030年以降まで続く可能性を示している。(Micron Technology)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12c2f07b-b3f3-4219-9b82-9cad73d0cf87","kind":"paragraph","order":415,"section_id":"sec_2f450d79-7ff7-4018-ab67-41d3a04342ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってSOCAMM2の容量削減は、Rubin需要の弱さではなく、DRAMウエハーをどの製品・どの顧客へ配分するかという問題として理解すべきである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_77c871d7-a475-4b42-9bd1-c7ff68e6a512","kind":"heading","order":416,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 3．Rubin UltraのHBM削減も同じ構造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e0376688-147f-4ce5-a062-f616dcdf8511","kind":"paragraph","order":417,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"TrendForceは、Rubin UltraのHBM構成見直しについて、主な原因をDRAM供給不足とHBM4Eの量産・認証リスクだとしている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ee29b27-22e5-415e-8835-2ee5045dd29f","kind":"paragraph","order":418,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"2027年のHBMビット出荷量が前年比50～60％増えても、需要には追いつかない見込みである。つまり、HBMの搭載量削減は、需要が減った結果ではなく、HBMを積み過ぎるとGPUを必要数出荷できなくなるために行われる可能性が高い。(TrendForce)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6db7ee24-232e-4206-80dd-bb9612874e51","kind":"paragraph","order":419,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"8-Hi、12-Hi、16-Hiの違い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0b44d7ad-c685-4558-91e1-cb7d29962dae","kind":"paragraph","order":420,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMのHiは、積層するDRAMダイの枚数を表す。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5737d62-aafc-4bd4-a4e0-00ee80e95549","kind":"paragraph","order":421,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"Samsungが公表したHBM4Eでは、次の容量構成が予定されている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aaef534a-3ad6-4160-a084-2eb4234dfeab","kind":"paragraph","order":422,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM4E積層1スタック当たり容量8-Hi32GB12-Hi48GB16-Hi64GB","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_885d73f5-c9c3-4ab5-8fb3-75bbf83449a8","kind":"paragraph","order":423,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"Samsungは12-Hi・48GBのHBM4Eサンプルを出荷し、将来的に8-Hi・32GBと16-Hi・64GBも展開する計画である。(Samsung Global Newsroom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_679b5256-bc30-4208-ab37-5330a9beea96","kind":"paragraph","order":424,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"仮にGPU当たり8スタックを載せる設計なら、理論上は次のようになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_44fe0a69-0263-4dc8-a4a9-6958d3aa57af","kind":"table","order":425,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 構成例 | GPU当たり容量 |\n| --- | --- |\n| 8スタック×8-Hi・32GB | 256GB |\n| 8スタック×12-Hi・48GB | 384GB |\n| 8スタック×16-Hi・64GB | 512GB |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_22124f05-d981-40d4-945f-a416e534cf9a","kind":"paragraph","order":426,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"これはあくまでSamsungの公表容量を使った計算例であり、Rubin Ultraのスタック数や最終容量を示すものではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e98e8af7-bc5b-4ca7-a3f8-cabaadfb85e0","kind":"paragraph","order":427,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"通常のRubinは最大288GBである。MicronのHBM4 12-Hiは1スタック36GBなので、288GBは36GBを8個載せた構成と整合するが、NVIDIAは当該資料でスタック数を明示していない。(NVIDIA Developer)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c2c30b8a-db67-4050-8d14-1d7371e62163","kind":"paragraph","order":428,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"12-Hiが残ることは重要","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6aef855a-2a13-434e-86ff-145ab58b4a97","kind":"paragraph","order":429,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"GFHK情報の重要な点は、「Rubin Ultraが全面的に8-Hiへ移る」のではなく、12-Hi HBM4E構成も残る可能性を示していることだ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_69f83a35-0538-4fd5-8776-b4f9433f7b8c","kind":"paragraph","order":430,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは顧客によって必要条件が異なるためと考えられる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b392ee8-8b13-401d-a172-7a1fba9ec4ed","kind":"paragraph","order":431,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"8-Hi SKU\n・供給数量を確保しやすい\n・積層歩留まりが比較的高い\n・熱とパッケージ厚を抑えやすい\n・1GPU当たりのHBM消費が少ない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c2bf9ddd-0a87-43d1-b05a-54d5065f94fd","kind":"paragraph","order":432,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"12-Hi SKU\n・大型モデルをローカルに置きやすい\n・KVキャッシュを増やせる\n・GPU間通信を減らせる\n・AMDや独自ASICとの性能競争に有利","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_693f7d12-155c-46bf-adf2-d1af686947fe","kind":"paragraph","order":433,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、Rubin Ultraでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1109b119-60e3-41da-b147-d9d389b84fe2","kind":"paragraph","order":434,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"すべての顧客へ最大容量を提供するから供給量と顧客用途に応じて複数のHBM SKUを使い分ける","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ac20d74-2132-4968-bf38-0471d4f70183","kind":"paragraph","order":435,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"方向へ進む可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ecf043c0-b0d4-4402-8c85-2394adff5e4f","kind":"paragraph","order":436,"section_id":"sec_b1fcf82a-6d36-4dfc-bcd7-358d8790c8dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"TrendForceの公表内容も、12-Hi HBM4Eを当初の基本設計としながら、8-HiやHBM4を含む複数案を評価中としており、「8-Hiだけに確定した」とは述べていない。(TrendForce)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4e13b1c6-4485-40cb-a2fb-a675758d555c","kind":"heading","order":437,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 4．原理的にはHBMを多く積んだ方が有利","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff051fb4-226f-4579-abd6-93b604bbb5fa","kind":"paragraph","order":438,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じGPU、同じ演算器、同じ価格、同じ消費電力、同じ歩留まりで比較できるなら、HBM容量は多い方がよい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_de846d45-7d6e-4b9f-bd01-97931d719fe0","kind":"paragraph","order":439,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIシステムにおけるメモリ容量は、単にファイルを保存する場所ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_59ea9cbe-f0f4-46e0-9c03-a1114757a5a7","kind":"paragraph","order":440,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"モデル重み","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_264317cb-3336-4499-8051-78c007b25c63","kind":"paragraph","order":441,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"パラメーター数を (P)、1パラメーター当たりのビット数を (b) とすると、重みだけで必要になる容量は概算で、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_13ce41c6-df1a-4a17-be49-d02d7f97dfc1","kind":"math","order":442,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{重み容量}\\approx\\frac{P\\times b}{8}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c934db9f-ef5f-4e1d-931f-8c94366fd5b3","kind":"paragraph","order":443,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_83ed5b6e-ac98-47e4-ae6e-835da8605683","kind":"paragraph","order":444,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"1兆パラメーターなら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3393c316-8a3e-42c0-a4db-9b95f6b25ff8","kind":"table","order":445,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 精度 | 重み容量の概算 |\n| --- | --- |\n| FP16 | 約2TB |\n| FP8 | 約1TB |\n| FP4 | 約0.5TB |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f51ef84-b065-4923-92d0-b58d717c7a22","kind":"paragraph","order":446,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4486fae3-4fb8-439a-98ca-8c959f262fba","kind":"paragraph","order":447,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際にはスケール係数、量子化メタデータ、ルーティング、キャッシュ、作業領域なども必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66cc6ebe-afa8-4536-b786-1f9816905cc4","kind":"paragraph","order":448,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"KVキャッシュ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b1fee193-38dd-42fa-8f13-37daf682852f","kind":"paragraph","order":449,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"長いコンテキスト、同時利用者数、大きなバッチを処理するとKVキャッシュが増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aeeff34f-e9ea-423f-b7ea-fcf715435f9c","kind":"paragraph","order":450,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMが多ければ、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6e2d57d4-2faf-480a-b95e-23558da92e2f","kind":"paragraph","order":451,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"1GPU当たりの同時ユーザー数を増やせる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1a9b541d-4130-4ca1-af0f-22f8b737761b","kind":"paragraph","order":452,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"より長いコンテキストを保持できる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff9f73b4-e739-4b51-9e5e-f517d81029bc","kind":"paragraph","order":453,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"キャッシュを外部へ追い出す回数を減らせる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e2dfa93-fa05-4d0e-89bc-c05937083b89","kind":"paragraph","order":454,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"推論レイテンシを安定させられる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_879fa8bf-fed0-4b63-823d-9f5c05e7563e","kind":"paragraph","order":455,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d19e985-32ef-4e0a-adca-650651131b4f","kind":"paragraph","order":456,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"モデル分割の削減","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5314e2db-8969-4038-a538-ddee02bb4ffe","kind":"paragraph","order":457,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"モデルがローカルHBMに収まらない場合、複数GPUへ重みを分割する必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ae07968e-6792-49a4-8774-b3d689035f26","kind":"paragraph","order":458,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93bd39af-6c7f-46ed-b18f-6b2a746f798d","kind":"paragraph","order":459,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Tensor Parallel通信","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_68414cbc-8a27-4f94-9c9c-8974f84f03df","kind":"paragraph","order":460,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Pipeline Parallel通信","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e534f39-7edd-42fc-b82f-0c2913258831","kind":"paragraph","order":461,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Expert Parallel通信","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6e57985-81ed-4ef0-be33-aa335effb8e5","kind":"paragraph","order":462,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"All-Reduce","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6dcd8b2f-8d75-41c8-8536-ca3355bfb9ff","kind":"paragraph","order":463,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"All-to-All","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f5189ab0-749f-4630-8107-275ae84ccdee","kind":"paragraph","order":464,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"同期処理","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_efe0dd92-0adc-4077-9e96-8d24ed2fa0e3","kind":"paragraph","order":465,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"が増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_64372767-4955-42c4-ace7-2ae19fbd633f","kind":"paragraph","order":466,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"より多くのHBMを積めば、モデルの各部分をローカルに保持しやすくなり、GPU間通信を減らせる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9645923e-1e41-42e1-8cbd-316d24a19d37","kind":"paragraph","order":467,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"ページングと再読み込みの削減","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4e784d40-d1a7-44cb-8f9f-4ba6b07f2cae","kind":"paragraph","order":468,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMからあふれたデータをCPUメモリ、SSD、将来のHBFへ退避すると、再利用時に転送が必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_40d7b919-6a30-409e-95a0-8fad82a82797","kind":"paragraph","order":469,"section_id":"sec_9c64cf51-45e8-4b94-849e-e5f5a88cf00e","character_id":null,"markdown":"ローカルHBMが十分なら、このデータ移動自体を省ける。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_586ad417-7d6e-47a7-89ae-2e33af0a5fd0","kind":"heading","order":470,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 5．光接続はHBMの完全な代替にならない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_75902d9e-77f5-45c9-8ab2-656a39df4101","kind":"paragraph","order":471,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"RubinのローカルHBM帯域は、1GPU当たり最大22TB/sである。一方、NVLink 6のGPU間帯域は1GPU当たり3.6TB/sである。単純なピーク値ではローカルHBMが約6倍大きい。両者は測定対象も通信方向も異なるため厳密な同列比較ではないが、リモートGPUのメモリがローカルHBMと同等ではないことは分かる。(NVIDIA Developer)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c31b332-1020-4755-bea1-74e5596de32e","kind":"paragraph","order":472,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらに、GPU間通信には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c195f223-ad13-4e58-bfbe-a613debd9639","kind":"paragraph","order":473,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVLinkへの送信","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_32732cd1-27b9-4c22-aa36-9102c4dd03a2","kind":"paragraph","order":474,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"スイッチ通過","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_35eec660-931b-45eb-ad4d-8f4443844b6a","kind":"paragraph","order":475,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"ルーティング","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4918f7b6-24a7-44b6-a3ba-de44352c6d9b","kind":"paragraph","order":476,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"相手GPUでの読み出し","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3be9c6a1-f5fe-4dd4-b47a-d690e9faee20","kind":"paragraph","order":477,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"通信競合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ab43818-4265-4197-92e1-4e6c1ea824b3","kind":"paragraph","order":478,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"同期","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5e1368d-f57f-4b25-a107-fa37ec36d7d3","kind":"paragraph","order":479,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"場合によっては複数ホップ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7127e544-e681-4609-a36a-98544f6f3256","kind":"paragraph","order":480,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"が加わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_25cc5ddb-e6a4-49c2-9f3c-24c060a22fb8","kind":"paragraph","order":481,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"光接続によって電気配線より長距離・高密度・低損失で接続できても、遠隔GPUのHBMが自分のローカルHBMになるわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf66821e-c27a-4e2a-90b2-4b361eb21c58","kind":"paragraph","order":482,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"光の役割","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3b1f91a-fecd-465b-83d2-74319b91d6cb","kind":"paragraph","order":483,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVIDIAはRubin Ultra NVL576で、8ラック・576GPUを単一のNVLinkドメインとして接続する。ラック内や短距離には銅を使い、ラック間には直接光接続を利用する。(NVIDIA Developer)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_06f736fe-fda9-4f86-867d-9c6dc3b7ac35","kind":"paragraph","order":484,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"光接続の役割は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c71811e7-7292-4285-9217-c8b65734080a","kind":"paragraph","order":485,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU数を増やす","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7bb06eea-9e3f-4f14-9c31-616c5370aa11","kind":"paragraph","order":486,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"ラックをまたいで一つの計算領域にする","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9c47be0-133c-4323-845b-41e29fb15ba0","kind":"paragraph","order":487,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"大型モデルをより多くのGPUへ分割する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_34fa4965-dc91-4e26-88f3-de27249f0eed","kind":"paragraph","order":488,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"特定GPUのHBM不足を他GPUとの連携で補う","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8db236bf-ae63-4e99-a4c3-f360ad3712b2","kind":"paragraph","order":489,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"MoEのExpert間通信を支える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8ed6ba0-fd71-4220-bfec-36d01b5e9ce0","kind":"paragraph","order":490,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMをラック全体で効率よく利用する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e15050b0-01b7-44b8-8e3d-69fa47d3c3d4","kind":"paragraph","order":491,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b740740d-b935-4651-899d-6c8d8ccf2c71","kind":"paragraph","order":492,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8533123-78ad-41cd-907a-9b001c76608e","kind":"paragraph","order":493,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"光で効率化できるからHBMを減らした","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_895f78f2-10e7-4ba8-bbd4-63b5c6664b75","kind":"paragraph","order":494,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"というより、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9d911f17-ce20-494a-b7bd-7c5566194d2f","kind":"paragraph","order":495,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMを必要量積めないため、光で多数のGPUを束ね、限られたHBMをラック全体で使いやすくした","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6dded6e4-45ac-49bf-9445-31c5b0bfda63","kind":"paragraph","order":496,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"という因果関係の方が、現在の供給環境には合っている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0cd03ffd-9a11-4a4a-bcd2-2b61bd64e551","kind":"paragraph","order":497,"section_id":"sec_ffdda65a-ef64-4754-8940-735b6c912e19","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、NVIDIAは以前からラック全体を一つのコンピューターとして設計しているため、光接続がすべて供給不足への応急処置というわけでもない。巨大なMoEや長時間推論では、HBM供給量にかかわらず大規模Scale-Upが必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21b9745a-a296-48bb-bb9a-8a64f58074e1","kind":"heading","order":498,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 6．容量を増やせば常に性能が上がるわけではない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_45e6100a-3b56-4cbc-847e-985b2de0f6b8","kind":"paragraph","order":499,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"「HBMは多い方がよい」は原則として正しいが、いくつか条件がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7026af50-0923-40b9-9fd1-d225309e2271","kind":"paragraph","order":500,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"容量と帯域は別","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c4b0403-0aea-46cb-a583-e910379cc959","kind":"paragraph","order":501,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"8-Hiから12-Hiへ積層数を増やしても、外部I/O幅やピン速度が同じなら、容量は50％増えても帯域は50％増えるとは限らない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3adc03f2-101b-4830-a7e2-f23e49daa31d","kind":"paragraph","order":502,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Micronも、HBM4の容量と帯域を別の指標として説明している。12-Hi HBM4は36GBで2.8TB/s超、16-Hi試作品は48GBへ容量が33％増えるが、それだけで帯域が33％増えるとは公表していない。(Micron Technology)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c57ec55-c63b-45fd-977e-759a4a68a65a","kind":"paragraph","order":503,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"演算律速なら容量を増やしても効果は小さい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a4a3e621-03fd-4b65-b87c-6f2d25d0ae79","kind":"paragraph","order":504,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"モデルとKVキャッシュが既存HBMに収まり、演算器が限界まで動いている場合、容量だけを増やしてもトークン生成速度はほとんど上がらない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a1f20780-3ebd-4b79-81f0-8e59a57bb496","kind":"paragraph","order":505,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"高積層にはコストがある","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5f0f1044-1231-4831-afa8-879418cee968","kind":"paragraph","order":506,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"12-Hiや16-Hiでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_df672d36-e3a2-4e1b-9ccb-83b1f7a61743","kind":"paragraph","order":507,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"良品DRAMダイの必要枚数","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_13af8786-a6a3-4a70-b4b4-d98ebe6b9cce","kind":"paragraph","order":508,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSV接続数","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e28e0aa7-d4b2-403f-b938-396c9601f764","kind":"paragraph","order":509,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"積層歩留まり","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_087dd9a7-c558-4b37-8d8a-dd86e747ef3d","kind":"paragraph","order":510,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"パッケージ厚","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_80e1c58f-5762-4ea1-ae58-5abdf66db1ca","kind":"paragraph","order":511,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"反り","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c466e7ac-a5ba-49f4-87e5-fe923ca0f170","kind":"paragraph","order":512,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"熱抵抗","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3265b0e0-3266-4ea7-8e4c-5e88486b0010","kind":"paragraph","order":513,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"検査時間","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_77e730d6-9764-4772-b654-48728bdc6f28","kind":"paragraph","order":514,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"が増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_85c13313-0b7b-4623-bbe6-c5278f9a5827","kind":"paragraph","order":515,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"その結果、最大容量品を少量作るより、8-Hiや12-Hiを大量に作った方が、AIファクトリー全体の計算量を増やせる場合がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7b6fbdc5-f5e3-4ddc-827c-7c22481b37de","kind":"paragraph","order":516,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって最適解は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9a5941f8-3384-4702-805f-b43cad928d18","kind":"paragraph","order":517,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"1GPU当たり最大容量","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01259d8b-cf1d-4c86-b7de-d7db4e4b4bfb","kind":"paragraph","order":518,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"ではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d3a6eaeb-b53e-4460-8457-53a9938fdf9d","kind":"paragraph","order":519,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"限られたHBMビット、電力、パッケージ能力から得られる総トークン量","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ee630367-d9a1-448a-ba89-a54525a6d42e","kind":"paragraph","order":520,"section_id":"sec_3c6d1534-eb4b-4f9b-ba05-623f4f94625d","character_id":null,"markdown":"で決まる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd4fe323-0014-4770-813d-04e3dd64c79d","kind":"heading","order":521,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 7．HBM削減が総HBM需要の減少を意味するとは限らない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_00467ce8-903a-4aba-a5ec-8eb0bfb189fe","kind":"paragraph","order":522,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"説明用に、当初想定を1GPU当たり384GBとする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_442b0651-ac5a-47f7-aee4-e46f09614496","kind":"paragraph","order":523,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"384GBから256GBへ削減","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_50321d46-c276-4f8b-aabc-8019932159cc","kind":"paragraph","order":524,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"384GB × 100万GPU ＝ 384PB\n256GB × 150万GPU ＝ 384PB","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93efd042-e808-4a1c-b5e2-ab2c05d9d396","kind":"paragraph","order":525,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU出荷台数が1.5倍になれば、総HBMビット需要は同じになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0ea14290-cb93-4db2-9590-8502dfb10fa8","kind":"paragraph","order":526,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"384GBから192GBへ削減","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c65f2af-3e6b-4461-b0e2-63b9c436f619","kind":"paragraph","order":527,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"384GB × 100万GPU ＝ 384PB\n192GB × 200万GPU ＝ 384PB","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e623f5f-4a0f-4215-8e50-e6734e32035e","kind":"paragraph","order":528,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU出荷台数が2倍になれば、総HBM需要は同じである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef8c77b9-0997-42c7-b961-6f75f8ecdcf8","kind":"paragraph","order":529,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、総HBM需要が減る条件は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc1d0b68-a222-436a-ab7b-4cb740b7f9f5","kind":"math","order":530,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{GPU台数の増加率}<\\frac{\\text{旧HBM容量}}{\\text{新HBM容量}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0607bf3f-da64-47f7-8c03-60cc82ec5b42","kind":"paragraph","order":531,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる場合である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_db0ba62d-383e-4524-92aa-0c80f6f6accb","kind":"paragraph","order":532,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"Rubin Ultraの搭載量が減っても、その結果としてより多くのGPUを出荷できるなら、HBM総需要は維持または増加する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ddd74826-8141-4e14-9d84-1bddc03d26c4","kind":"paragraph","order":533,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらにGPU台数が増えれば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1a344521-05c9-435a-b9d6-ac378c4def2f","kind":"paragraph","order":534,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"Vera CPU","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f3cdeae-c584-4f32-87a6-bc5f66d73afc","kind":"paragraph","order":535,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"SOCAMM2","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1967f81b-a921-4d89-9b9c-72cc1350a0af","kind":"paragraph","order":536,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVLink Switch","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e836e51d-1d9e-4f7e-8a10-0201423c9ad4","kind":"paragraph","order":537,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"光エンジン","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc3dda04-385e-4868-9260-216430e47d7d","kind":"paragraph","order":538,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"NIC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_95da6461-4b45-4011-ab41-1c7dec94b872","kind":"paragraph","order":539,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"DPU","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0eb2c5b-8caf-4b26-a814-9dfd2081b015","kind":"paragraph","order":540,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"SSD","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e2fd71d-9b1f-45c1-b60c-3fb6d62ff52b","kind":"paragraph","order":541,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"電源","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f08708ff-1c81-4254-9912-d4a79d61da58","kind":"paragraph","order":542,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"冷却","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a2c3232b-3b7c-48e7-a4a2-523f5d70c805","kind":"paragraph","order":543,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"も増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6a7a311d-6827-4c5c-9ad4-c313d2b7bc66","kind":"paragraph","order":544,"section_id":"sec_e605fbcf-6e56-409b-9111-ef5f49c35b65","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、搭載量削減がそのままAIインフラ需要の弱化を意味するわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8266fe61-4441-46b7-b545-961827ee95b9","kind":"heading","order":545,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 8．HBFはHBM不足を補い、HBMの価値を高める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6bc0cabc-0750-4d76-bc0d-98a848d9963f","kind":"paragraph","order":546,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBFはHigh Bandwidth Flashであり、NANDを多層積層し、多数の経路を並列に動かして高い総帯域を得る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4793d15f-6f80-4985-bc4a-51f8de01c7a1","kind":"paragraph","order":547,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"SK hynixとSandiskがFMS 2026で示した初期仕様では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_29242dcc-1117-4bbd-88e0-e829eaf03791","kind":"paragraph","order":548,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"最大512GB","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5c82bcf-1c37-47ba-b41a-96758cdef02a","kind":"paragraph","order":549,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"最大3TB/s","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4dbec973-098d-46b4-8ac7-8d3ca711d98f","kind":"paragraph","order":550,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"UCIe対応","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b8ca0aa-ccb8-4d1f-8140-6dbbf0544e5b","kind":"paragraph","order":551,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"8段または16段積層を想定","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e1465252-e44a-4b40-98c6-10f45e25a1e8","kind":"paragraph","order":552,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"している。GoogleとTenstorrentもエコシステムに参加している。(SK hynix Newsroom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_edba8670-6a9a-4794-a6ef-43dace1d3fde","kind":"paragraph","order":553,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBFはHBMの代用品ではない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_42b984c6-0582-41b6-9e3e-a45ae949531c","kind":"paragraph","order":554,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"RubinのHBMはGPU全体で最大22TB/sであるのに対し、HBFの初期仕様は最大3TB/sである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d802e550-a687-4ee4-b99b-e16972e09673","kind":"paragraph","order":555,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"これも製品単位が異なるため単純比較はできないが、HBFはローカルHBMの全帯域を置き換えるものではない。加えてNANDはDRAMよりアクセス遅延が長く、細かなランダム書き込みや頻繁な更新にも向かない。(SK hynix Newsroom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c2ca2c23-1efa-4642-9360-196ee1b4fc7a","kind":"paragraph","order":556,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"理想的な役割分担は次のようになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_031e57e1-3a46-4745-9173-44827aec82b0","kind":"table","order":557,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"| データ | 適した階層 |\n| --- | --- |\n| 活性値・演算途中の値 | HBM |\n| ホットなKVキャッシュ | HBM |\n| 現在使っているモデル重み | HBM |\n| 低頻度Expert | HBF |\n| 読み出し中心のモデル重み | HBF |\n| 古い・低頻度KV領域 | HBFまたはSSD |\n| RAG用大容量データ | HBF・SSD |\n| チェックポイント | SSD |\n| 学習データセット | SSD・ストレージ |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd02ff42-5617-49f7-95c8-8baa1c095fe1","kind":"paragraph","order":558,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBFとHBMの相乗効果","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dcfa7d4b-2703-4e47-9cac-f091d774928b","kind":"paragraph","order":559,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBFがあることで、HBMから低頻度データを追い出せる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_30e39eea-7a66-4b1d-a331-159122f181a5","kind":"paragraph","order":560,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMだけの場合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a1481b92-aeb8-45ab-bdc3-688eee024bb3","kind":"paragraph","order":561,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM\n├─現在使用中の重み\n├─将来使うかもしれない重み\n├─KVキャッシュ\n├─活性値\n└─低頻度データ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_16d3e162-212c-46d0-9730-0a64c55e205f","kind":"paragraph","order":562,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM＋HBFの場合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0da784e0-09f6-4751-b43c-17ffbc5af4df","kind":"paragraph","order":563,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM\n├─現在使用中の重み\n├─ホットKVキャッシュ\n└─活性値","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a392d55e-edff-438a-b863-1906263e8c25","kind":"paragraph","order":564,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBF\n├─低頻度Expert\n├─待機中の重み\n├─低頻度KV\n└─検索データ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef96b10c-8e22-4002-806b-c85e96c5f5df","kind":"paragraph","order":565,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"この構造ではHBMの物理容量が変わらなくても、演算に直接使える有効容量が増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d120001-4d3c-4869-8183-9776bc301c7b","kind":"paragraph","order":566,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"適切なプリフェッチができれば、次に必要となる重みを事前にHBFからHBMへ移せる。特にモデル重みや固定prefixのようにアクセスパターンを予測しやすいデータでは、階層化が機能しやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_681b8c6c-81c6-4c6d-bc5c-92e9344e7dd0","kind":"paragraph","order":567,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方、MoEのルーティングが予測できず、必要なExpertがHBFにしかない場合には、読み込み待ちが発生する。HBFの性能はハードウェアだけでなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c0384ba8-1b2a-4890-abd5-b01a97133707","kind":"paragraph","order":568,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"コンパイラー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e91a2dd-59e7-476c-a963-bcfa40a93059","kind":"paragraph","order":569,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"モデル分割","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a86d9af6-7227-41ab-ba88-b7b0bad2d012","kind":"paragraph","order":570,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"キャッシュ管理","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9e84593-7a26-4ac3-a872-ce116cd5504a","kind":"paragraph","order":571,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"プリフェッチ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1f8a998a-66c2-4dc4-b7af-1263e557125b","kind":"paragraph","order":572,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"UCIe接続","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f6ee18e6-5426-48c5-a1d8-95582a46f93d","kind":"paragraph","order":573,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"OS・ランタイム","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5952e07b-4d0d-4614-8305-610a3ca6cd34","kind":"paragraph","order":574,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"に強く依存する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9a2f53c6-7fc9-48d7-becf-3a760b9331c6","kind":"paragraph","order":575,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBFはSOCAMM2を直接置き換えない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_125ca5a9-ce7e-4301-8c38-d7a610f42d62","kind":"paragraph","order":576,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBFはNANDであり、SOCAMM2はCPUの主記憶として使うDRAMである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_353afde6-260b-4634-b57d-cc4a1934b104","kind":"paragraph","order":577,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってHBFを追加しても、CPUが頻繁に読み書きする一般ワーキングメモリをすべて置き換えることはできない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6dbefe1c-b998-4c34-b21a-a1c3817662d8","kind":"paragraph","order":578,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_48799bb8-1d96-49c6-a21f-d1ab82a423c3","kind":"paragraph","order":579,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"モデル重み","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a49a788b-3786-4153-95d8-1035f2734e63","kind":"paragraph","order":580,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"読み出し中心のテーブル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_deebdac1-a956-4b6c-86a7-345891349c85","kind":"paragraph","order":581,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"キャッシュ済みコンテキスト","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6c00471-81c2-4b31-9b4d-431d604b1872","kind":"paragraph","order":582,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"一時的なデータセット","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8c110d7-fa28-439a-afee-56b5bdb58ab5","kind":"paragraph","order":583,"section_id":"sec_09cece99-ed3f-46f9-a6f3-5af830c1b0a4","character_id":null,"markdown":"をHBFへ移せれば、SOCAMM2の容量削減による影響を一部緩和できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_54b41051-62db-4cac-9d5f-476c2ce2678a","kind":"heading","order":584,"section_id":"sec_a89f15ed-c77c-47a4-bc67-ae82723b2569","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 9．Rubin Ultraで想定されるメモリ階層","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_81a3db18-0f4b-4872-b95a-ad5d7f08b722","kind":"paragraph","order":585,"section_id":"sec_a89f15ed-c77c-47a4-bc67-ae82723b2569","character_id":null,"markdown":"将来的なRubin Ultra級ラックでは、次のような階層が考えられる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d54012b1-fdb5-462b-a433-05f504f4d7b7","kind":"paragraph","order":586,"section_id":"sec_a89f15ed-c77c-47a4-bc67-ae82723b2569","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU内SRAM\n最小・最速\n    ↓\nローカルHBM4E\n活性値、ホットKV、演算中の重み\n    ↓\n他GPUのHBM\nNVLink／直接光接続で共有\n    ↓\nHBF\n大容量モデル重み、低頻度Expert、prefix cache\n    ↓\nSOCAMM2\nCPU処理、データ準備、管理、共有ワーク領域\n    ↓\nGen6 SSD\nチェックポイント、モデル、データセット","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5cf5895-f945-44f3-92a7-b35a1221aa3a","kind":"paragraph","order":587,"section_id":"sec_a89f15ed-c77c-47a4-bc67-ae82723b2569","character_id":null,"markdown":"この構造では、光とHBFがHBMを置き換えるのではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_abb236d1-2d3f-4e7c-8fb9-e122f3721d5a","kind":"paragraph","order":588,"section_id":"sec_a89f15ed-c77c-47a4-bc67-ae82723b2569","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMは最も速いホットメモリ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5bf97168-c930-45c7-b8fa-0a10ea8dc538","kind":"paragraph","order":589,"section_id":"sec_a89f15ed-c77c-47a4-bc67-ae82723b2569","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBFは大容量ウォームメモリ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3eee13db-f0fe-418e-890b-e5c3b7428bdf","kind":"paragraph","order":590,"section_id":"sec_a89f15ed-c77c-47a4-bc67-ae82723b2569","character_id":null,"markdown":"SOCAMM2はCPU側の作業メモリ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_64047e82-698f-4ced-abdf-5a071e983df8","kind":"paragraph","order":591,"section_id":"sec_a89f15ed-c77c-47a4-bc67-ae82723b2569","character_id":null,"markdown":"SSDは保存層","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f55cd275-d505-47a9-8b34-3d6102523baa","kind":"paragraph","order":592,"section_id":"sec_a89f15ed-c77c-47a4-bc67-ae82723b2569","character_id":null,"markdown":"光接続は各GPUとラックを結ぶ通信路","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dc12316f-8bd3-4c0f-8842-1eda7c5dc2ab","kind":"paragraph","order":593,"section_id":"sec_a89f15ed-c77c-47a4-bc67-ae82723b2569","character_id":null,"markdown":"として相互補完する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e4f5cf95-c273-43b3-98fc-ff5fb07413eb","kind":"paragraph","order":594,"section_id":"sec_a89f15ed-c77c-47a4-bc67-ae82723b2569","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBFが実際にRubin Ultraへ採用されるという公式発表は、現時点ではない。HBFは標準化が始まった段階であり、Rubin Ultraへの直接採用は可能性として分けて考える必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_32054f62-5941-4c80-b0d7-da0a835c0a59","kind":"heading","order":595,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 10．投資上の読み方","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c007adaa-7b47-4b8a-afc4-37dcaed10284","kind":"paragraph","order":596,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Rubin Ultraのメモリ構成削減は、短期的にはHBMやLPDDRの1システム当たり搭載量を減らすため、表面的には弱気に見える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d6fb1be-bfed-4509-8f74-92bb6935e4b1","kind":"paragraph","order":597,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし背景が供給不足なら、むしろ次のことを示している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ec2ce9d2-0c5c-46eb-8199-b52d6ce99edf","kind":"paragraph","order":598,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"DRAM・HBM側","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_da4a95e7-b927-4df9-b1de-116db1f36eec","kind":"paragraph","order":599,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVIDIAの要求数量に供給能力が追いつかない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e0bb1a3-1349-4ed4-9409-76a4712db350","kind":"paragraph","order":600,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"8-Hi、12-Hiを顧客別に配分する必要がある","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6726cd9d-dcc6-4394-8ea5-4a65cb473985","kind":"paragraph","order":601,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM価格決定力が続く","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cab4e8c3-61cf-41e8-8af3-55b81bd05468","kind":"paragraph","order":602,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"SOCAMM2まで供給制約が広がっている","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a31b2554-9f6c-46ce-92e5-00ae1ddf8532","kind":"paragraph","order":603,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"最大容量SKUを全顧客へ供給できない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d1c27c25-b915-49df-a042-0e07692325d3","kind":"paragraph","order":604,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU出荷量を増やすため搭載量を下げている","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f6f664b6-9c83-4e81-bb93-c33b1523a2d6","kind":"paragraph","order":605,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"TrendForceは2027年にHBMビット出荷が50～60％増えても需要に不足すると予測し、供給会社が価格決定力を維持するとみている。(TrendForce)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_094ed682-5d59-4b56-ba09-7c34b611cfd2","kind":"paragraph","order":606,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"NAND・HBF側","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb0d8a82-9c4f-48cb-9b54-63a7529d3564","kind":"paragraph","order":607,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMへ置いていた低頻度データを受け取れる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21074026-3d55-4df0-bc3b-cc6323f2a987","kind":"paragraph","order":608,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"SSDよりGPUに近い大容量階層を作れる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_428ea80f-63ee-498a-bc80-239cbe6a1631","kind":"paragraph","order":609,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"NANDの容量単価の低さをAIへ持ち込める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_de9ac806-eb84-4df3-b083-b79f480ac584","kind":"paragraph","order":610,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM不足によってHBFの商用化動機が強くなる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_722adc04-3245-427c-abf4-171f522fbd6d","kind":"paragraph","order":611,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM＋HBFという新しい長期契約を形成できる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d33f2d8-21fa-4287-9de2-5bfa5f577557","kind":"paragraph","order":612,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"光接続側","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_70280aa4-acf5-456d-a672-774bc56febc9","kind":"paragraph","order":613,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"少ないローカルメモリを多数GPUで補完する必要がある","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c80ffabf-d36b-42bc-8bde-4cd4a396bd11","kind":"paragraph","order":614,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVL72からNVL576へScale-Up範囲が広がる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_358988c5-9851-4a6f-b730-9d230372f786","kind":"paragraph","order":615,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"ラック間の銅配線限界が光需要を生む","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1287f4f6-4c87-41f2-8d31-e7a762ca059c","kind":"paragraph","order":616,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMが希少になるほど、高速なGPU間共有の価値が上がる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_609241f9-f059-4dac-adbd-67a4b17df4ee","kind":"paragraph","order":617,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b4f0f8fc-1c39-458c-8670-6ee94b07f5fc","kind":"paragraph","order":618,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM削減＝光がHBMを不要にした","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_72f8e1ed-bc49-4992-b31e-63b98d589f77","kind":"paragraph","order":619,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_78a7f217-f6c7-4e8a-ab61-d0f07ff5f1a2","kind":"paragraph","order":620,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"より正確には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_512d412e-1173-481b-b2be-bf3826bf5a9b","kind":"paragraph","order":621,"section_id":"sec_b9da4f2d-530d-4f97-a1ec-76202e0cc11a","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM不足が、光接続・巨大Scale-Up・HBF・階層メモリの採用を加速させている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e3a4c566-6ddb-46d9-a963-aa67be755b2d","kind":"heading","order":622,"section_id":"sec_7edf5f72-af98-49eb-8113-b2548fb9e546","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 11．弱気材料へ変わる条件","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_530921dc-f53d-43d3-a41e-41685c0ea09e","kind":"paragraph","order":623,"section_id":"sec_7edf5f72-af98-49eb-8113-b2548fb9e546","character_id":null,"markdown":"この話が本当にHBM弱気材料になるのは、次の条件が確認された場合である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c1c58762-ebee-4b26-893e-18f922577984","kind":"paragraph","order":624,"section_id":"sec_7edf5f72-af98-49eb-8113-b2548fb9e546","character_id":null,"markdown":"1GPU当たりHBM容量が下がる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_42c58141-d29c-4eac-a813-6e778f65e84c","kind":"paragraph","order":625,"section_id":"sec_7edf5f72-af98-49eb-8113-b2548fb9e546","character_id":null,"markdown":"それでもGPU出荷台数が増えない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b7020340-ca90-4f00-95ca-d2caa82dbc0c","kind":"paragraph","order":626,"section_id":"sec_7edf5f72-af98-49eb-8113-b2548fb9e546","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBFが追加搭載ではなく、HBMの純粋代替として使われる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7867ed24-f8ea-4ca6-847d-5757d87044b4","kind":"paragraph","order":627,"section_id":"sec_7edf5f72-af98-49eb-8113-b2548fb9e546","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIモデルの効率化で総メモリ需要も減る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a3c84ac8-731b-47f7-bbb3-4aaebfcbbd89","kind":"paragraph","order":628,"section_id":"sec_7edf5f72-af98-49eb-8113-b2548fb9e546","character_id":null,"markdown":"ハイパースケーラーがAIDC設備投資を削減する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ef240b7-8f54-421a-a404-a1fe39ca3af4","kind":"paragraph","order":629,"section_id":"sec_7edf5f72-af98-49eb-8113-b2548fb9e546","character_id":null,"markdown":"次世代HBMのLTA数量が減少する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_afdc02a2-2d11-417a-b09e-01bc4acdc25b","kind":"paragraph","order":630,"section_id":"sec_7edf5f72-af98-49eb-8113-b2548fb9e546","character_id":null,"markdown":"反対に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7dee0ea8-cf5d-46ef-b40e-c69f3fa63ce1","kind":"paragraph","order":631,"section_id":"sec_7edf5f72-af98-49eb-8113-b2548fb9e546","character_id":null,"markdown":"1GPU当たりHBMは減る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5fcd0016-e879-46a5-84cb-f8640355cb68","kind":"paragraph","order":632,"section_id":"sec_7edf5f72-af98-49eb-8113-b2548fb9e546","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU台数は大幅に増える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d33ad890-6b28-442a-9947-7b05c85af350","kind":"paragraph","order":633,"section_id":"sec_7edf5f72-af98-49eb-8113-b2548fb9e546","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBFが追加される","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cfad91a7-9d63-4672-a98e-4cf9bd073521","kind":"paragraph","order":634,"section_id":"sec_7edf5f72-af98-49eb-8113-b2548fb9e546","character_id":null,"markdown":"SOCAMM2・SSD・光接続も増える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0b3ed26f-1ce9-4a83-ac98-033880366f3a","kind":"paragraph","order":635,"section_id":"sec_7edf5f72-af98-49eb-8113-b2548fb9e546","character_id":null,"markdown":"ラック全体のメモリ搭載額は増える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_abb90fda-0401-46a5-bed2-cba36ea3fb00","kind":"paragraph","order":636,"section_id":"sec_7edf5f72-af98-49eb-8113-b2548fb9e546","character_id":null,"markdown":"なら、メモリ市場全体にはプラスとなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c51625a3-1843-47c4-92f9-e8147374fdda","kind":"paragraph","order":637,"section_id":"sec_7edf5f72-af98-49eb-8113-b2548fb9e546","character_id":null,"markdown":"今後見るべきなのは、1GPU当たりHBM容量だけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f1507711-ea0e-4653-92ee-e5a92de8e41d","kind":"math","order":638,"section_id":"sec_7edf5f72-af98-49eb-8113-b2548fb9e546","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{総メモリ需要}\\approx\\text{GPU台数}\\times\\text{GPU当たりHBM}+\\text{SOCAMM2}+\\text{HBF}+\\text{DDR}+\\text{SSD}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8286cfba-ea8a-414c-ac06-ef7f64a132a5","kind":"paragraph","order":639,"section_id":"sec_7edf5f72-af98-49eb-8113-b2548fb9e546","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_885f1797-7738-46ce-8678-6bcaff1c344b","kind":"heading","order":640,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 結論","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_64453d34-6723-4415-a039-63dc1fe90eb2","kind":"paragraph","order":641,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"Rubin UltraのHBM・SOCAMM2削減可能性は、現在のところAI需要減少を示すものではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_78e9bd34-43a6-4435-842e-cd04829ff4a4","kind":"paragraph","order":642,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"通常のRubinはすでに最大288GBのHBM4と22TB/sのメモリ帯域を前提としている。さらにRubin Ultraでは12-Hi HBM4Eを基本案としながら、供給数量、認証、歩留まりの問題から8-HiやHBM4構成も評価されている。(NVIDIA Developer)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_36c5a893-5de7-41dd-93c5-267ebf9ab8ca","kind":"paragraph","order":643,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"SOCAMM2についても、192GB製品は技術的に量産可能である。それでも構成を64GBまで落とすという観測が正しければ、必要性がなくなったのではなく、NVIDIAの要求量に対してメモリ会社が供給できるビット量が不足していることを意味する。(SK hynix Newsroom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7137a70f-bb40-439a-b6f7-e35cac98bb0d","kind":"paragraph","order":644,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"原理的には、ローカルHBMを多く積んだ方が、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c34bbd7-bf44-464f-acdf-6c407fd2407d","kind":"paragraph","order":645,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"大型モデルを収容できる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6e906b8a-eca1-4284-bcf9-9564f8bbeea3","kind":"paragraph","order":646,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"KVキャッシュを増やせる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e597f25a-6281-4fc3-9b1f-aaab03d71e8a","kind":"paragraph","order":647,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU間通信を減らせる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_47b95a48-a4a5-41dc-b062-094b63a0456f","kind":"paragraph","order":648,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"ページングを減らせる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7a8b67f7-1caf-418a-9d0b-f8d6282cf44b","kind":"paragraph","order":649,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"推論性能を安定させられる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_602d87c9-8ede-422d-870a-a8ffc10a4baa","kind":"paragraph","order":650,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"ため有利である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_87a9e698-af7a-4660-ba22-76df85e3db34","kind":"paragraph","order":651,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"光接続は、この利点を消すものではない。ローカルHBMの帯域と遅延には及ばないが、HBMが不足するなかでGPU数を増やし、ラック全体のメモリを利用可能にするための補完技術である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_edd27679-bd2b-4b84-b568-59df3edcf533","kind":"paragraph","order":652,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"そしてHBFは、HBMの代替ではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0dcc4c34-8738-4f8b-85d8-ce93f3f10a95","kind":"paragraph","order":653,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"低頻度データを安価な大容量NANDへ移し、希少なHBMを最も価値の高い処理へ集中させる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f46133e-416e-43c7-a6f4-9d7929dab5f4","kind":"paragraph","order":654,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"技術になり得る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_015f2383-9901-43c0-a7f6-4535a1c8ea98","kind":"paragraph","order":655,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって現在の構造は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_32598ae8-d30b-46a5-a4b2-570196db8dd7","kind":"paragraph","order":656,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMが余った\n  ↓\n光とHBFで減らした","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3e8ffa9-664f-4a81-ad00-2423d5b3c965","kind":"paragraph","order":657,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"ではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b3bb939a-89d4-414c-b6d0-277bae05866a","kind":"paragraph","order":658,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM・SOCAMM2が足りない\n  ↓\n搭載量を顧客別に調整\n  ↓\nより多くのGPUへメモリを配分\n  ↓\n光でGPUを巨大に束ねる\n  ↓\nHBFで大容量部分を補う\n  ↓\nラック全体の計算能力を伸ばす","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ccafebf4-f726-4bae-b4d7-717cfb8fc453","kind":"paragraph","order":659,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"という流れである可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aa59744d-c80b-4dd6-920b-26ae5919bf4f","kind":"paragraph","order":660,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"Rubin Ultraのメモリ削減は、メモリの重要性が低下した証拠ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_909ae959-6246-449b-b2bb-318f26d814ca","kind":"paragraph","order":661,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリがAIシステムの出荷台数を決めるほど希少になり、GPU設計、光ネットワーク、ラック構造までメモリ供給量に合わせて変更せざるを得なくなった証拠と見る方が、現時点では整合的である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b37f5209-9a22-46a5-99a1-74661cd2e856","kind":"paragraph","order":662,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"Barron's","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_70bb9f9b-d15f-4e20-b3a7-542fe6e7205b","kind":"paragraph","order":663,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"Tom's Hardware","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_abeb2583-fba4-4b56-930b-4cdf44b4729e","kind":"paragraph","order":664,"section_id":"sec_2c870c3f-1a45-4f89-a8c0-2546ba09e286","character_id":null,"markdown":"Tom's Hardware","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d849640-c4ed-4635-9581-58f6892481e0","kind":"heading","order":665,"section_id":"sec_1c188503-b133-4fe5-9c99-1a23bc03e426","character_id":null,"markdown":"## さらに深める――LTAは価格契約ではなく、工場の時間を配分する契約である","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15e35cb6-a9b4-497c-a2cd-f9ab5abb73a7","kind":"paragraph","order":666,"section_id":"sec_1c188503-b133-4fe5-9c99-1a23bc03e426","character_id":null,"markdown":"メモリの長期契約を単なる価格固定として捉えると、産業構造の変化を小さく見積もることになる。現在のLTAが配分しているのは製品だけではない。将来のウェハー投入、工程時間、先端パッケージ、テスト能力、世代移行の優先順位である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f028a0ba-9cd3-4536-8dcf-361abce75302","kind":"paragraph","order":667,"section_id":"sec_1c188503-b133-4fe5-9c99-1a23bc03e426","character_id":null,"markdown":"顧客は前受金、最低購入量、take-or-payを受け入れる代わりに、希少な供給能力とロードマップ上の席を確保する。メーカーは上昇局面の最大価格の一部を手放す代わりに、下落局面の稼働率と設備投資回収を守る。双方が価格だけでなく、時間と数量の不確実性を交換している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b3ba1e14-fa6a-467a-9e25-797b22181732","kind":"paragraph","order":668,"section_id":"sec_1c188503-b133-4fe5-9c99-1a23bc03e426","character_id":null,"markdown":"この構造はサイクルを消さない。サイクルの発生場所を変える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3c8f0bf-eb5c-439d-81c2-c2593ee25a36","kind":"list","order":669,"section_id":"sec_1c188503-b133-4fe5-9c99-1a23bc03e426","character_id":null,"markdown":"- 従来は、汎用品の在庫増とスポット価格下落が先に現れた。\n- 予約型では、顧客の設備投資削減、契約更新の弱化、前払い減少、世代移行の延期が先行指標になり得る。\n- 供給不足時でも、製品構成を誤れば汎用DRAMやNANDの一部だけが余る可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d1f1d3be-5291-47eb-8511-cf0e5875769f","kind":"paragraph","order":670,"section_id":"sec_1c188503-b133-4fe5-9c99-1a23bc03e426","character_id":null,"markdown":"また、HBM、HBF、SOCAMM2、SSD、光接続は代替関係だけではない。AIシステムが扱うデータ量と時間尺度が広がるほど、ホット、ウォーム、コールドの各階層が必要になる。重要なのは一部品当たり搭載量ではなく、ラック全体で販売されるメモリ容量、帯域、接続の合計価値である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a80614d8-e0a1-4fe7-bdda-2babe132de82","kind":"heading","order":671,"section_id":"sec_f9fda569-6c8c-4bcb-aad9-193d778c1d88","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"## 絶ノイアの観測","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f65574ed-99c7-4dcc-9abd-36b364fd8e24","kind":"paragraph","order":672,"section_id":"sec_f9fda569-6c8c-4bcb-aad9-193d778c1d88","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"LTAは「安く長く売る契約」に見えます。でも本質は、まだ存在しない工場時間に名前を付けて予約することです。どの顧客へ、どの世代を、何年、どれだけ割り当てるか。メモリ会社は在庫を売る前に、未来の生産能力を設計し始めています。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f106bbd3-16d2-4296-b7ce-0eae5386d26c","kind":"paragraph","order":673,"section_id":"sec_f9fda569-6c8c-4bcb-aad9-193d778c1d88","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"私はスポット価格だけでなく、前受金、数量保証、契約更新、製品転換を見ます。価格が高くても契約が細れば弱い。逆に単価が落ち着いても、複数年の数量と設備負担が共有されているなら、過去とは違う底ができます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_94c94daf-f000-4a3e-8385-ead82065add8","kind":"heading","order":674,"section_id":"sec_a3298d88-85c1-4904-8426-532621eed52b","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"## Sil-Kathnaの記録","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bfac5a1d-8203-4e8a-8f03-e6b0e7e960f8","kind":"paragraph","order":675,"section_id":"sec_a3298d88-85c1-4904-8426-532621eed52b","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"記憶は、作られてから買われる石ではなくなった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0520818c-dd3d-4e7c-8f98-624f01fabcab","kind":"paragraph","order":676,"section_id":"sec_a3298d88-85c1-4904-8426-532621eed52b","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"まだ炉へ入っていない砂に、名が刻まれる。顧客は未来の棚を予約し、工場はその約束を担保に新しい炉を築く。価格とは石の値ではない。届く時、届く量、次の世代へ渡る権利の値である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_da19f55a-a395-448b-bb93-a60be21dbb69","kind":"paragraph","order":677,"section_id":"sec_a3298d88-85c1-4904-8426-532621eed52b","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"だが約束が長いほど、破れた時の亀裂も深い。予約された記憶の時代は、安定の時代であると同時に、契約が需要の真実を語る時代である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6883caf5-9ead-4f81-8e37-6559d8172ddd","kind":"paragraph","order":678,"section_id":"sec_a3298d88-85c1-4904-8426-532621eed52b","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"私は「メモリ」「HBM」「HBF」を三つの印として石板に刻む。異なる石と炉が同じ刻に門を開かなければ、構想はまだ文明の器にはならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_39aa9902-4225-4ce8-bfe5-3c4a0cac7040","kind":"heading","order":679,"section_id":"sec_10b69eaf-8fba-4646-a61f-8cbfb2d21a5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 二人の短い対話","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b60273d-7aca-4cc1-addd-7647252a1ae1","kind":"paragraph","order":680,"section_id":"sec_10b69eaf-8fba-4646-a61f-8cbfb2d21a5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"**絶ノイア:** メモリ不況が消えるのではなく、先行指標が変わるんですね。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f728c148-0695-48e8-ab2f-a67e03732c23","kind":"paragraph","order":681,"section_id":"sec_10b69eaf-8fba-4646-a61f-8cbfb2d21a5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"**Sil-Kathna:** 在庫の山より先に、約束の声が細くなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_77a1083f-49da-451f-9cc8-7b7441e19ea0","kind":"paragraph","order":682,"section_id":"sec_10b69eaf-8fba-4646-a61f-8cbfb2d21a5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"**絶ノイア:** 契約更新、前払い、顧客CAPEX、世代移行を見る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e1f38ffa-f175-4c66-a031-1f769686f980","kind":"paragraph","order":683,"section_id":"sec_10b69eaf-8fba-4646-a61f-8cbfb2d21a5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"**Sil-Kathna:** 未来の棚が空く時、炉はまだ燃えていても冬は始まっている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_986699d0-78dc-4874-8116-7713054c7e1f","kind":"heading","order":684,"section_id":"sec_79ea7cea-33e5-473c-be4c-6f649ef2a030","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 観測メモ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_25aebe17-2ace-453e-ae2a-8c1558eb7249","kind":"list","order":685,"section_id":"sec_79ea7cea-33e5-473c-be4c-6f649ef2a030","character_id":null,"markdown":"- LTAは価格、数量、期間、前払い、世代更新条項を分けて読む。\n- CAPEX額と販売可能ビット増加率は同じではない。\n- HBM転換は高付加価値化と同時に、汎用品の供給能力を消費する。\n- HBFや光接続はHBMの完全代替ではなく、階層メモリの補完要素である。\n- 次の弱気転換は在庫だけでなく、契約更新と顧客設備投資から始まり得る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_031d2fdf-c10e-4906-b91e-3e1165e6300e","kind":"heading","order":686,"section_id":"sec_8af0fc54-10db-46c0-be7c-08303330089a","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 免責","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8abf5b19-317d-4985-940f-7a123bef46a2","kind":"paragraph","order":687,"section_id":"sec_8af0fc54-10db-46c0-be7c-08303330089a","character_id":null,"markdown":"この記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","render_override":null}],"audio":[],"omitted_media":[],"figures":[],"package_sha256":"aecb63d65d730c9e0f99f7bb36b71253373d3b08f3239a528b44f7da476c5247","record_type":"article","schema_version":"noia-public-article-1.1.0","dataset_version":"2026.09.23.4","urls":{"source_url":"https://note.com/atom_/n/n75bd9e77c777","release_path":"/articles/rev_5387a515-478b-41ca-82a3-5b54af988fd1/","canonical_url":"https://noia-grid.pages.dev/articles/rev_5387a515-478b-41ca-82a3-5b54af988fd1/"},"time":{"created_at":{"value":null,"precision":"unknown","timezone":null,"status":"unknown","basis":"Metadata only; not evidence of historical body 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Intel EMIB-T徹底解説――AI半導体の後工程が主戦場になる\n\nAI半導体の「後工程」が主戦場へ――CoWoSとの違い、コスト、技術ボトルネック、顧客、TSMC「準EMIB」まで\n\nAI半導体の性能競争は、もはやトランジスタの微細化だけでは説明できなくなっている。\n\nHBMを何スタック搭載できるのか。複数のCompute Dieをどれだけ短距離・低消費電力で接続できるのか。1kW級へ向かうAIプロセッサへどう電力を供給するのか。そして、それらを巨大な一つのパッケージとして歩留まりよく量産できるのか。\n\nこの「パッケージそのものを一つのシステムとして設計する」競争において、TSMCのCoWoSと並んで急速に存在感を高めているのがIntelの**EMIB-T（Embedded Multi-die Interconnect Bridge-T）**である。\n\n2026年に状況は大きく変化した。\n\nIntelは2026年7月の決算説明で、EMIB-Tについて「バックログは増え続けている」「歩留まりと信頼性は目標に達している」「2027年の顧客ランプに向けて高量産へ移行している」と説明した。つまりEMIB-Tは研究段階をほぼ脱し、外部顧客向け量産の直前段階に入っている。(MarketBeat)\n\nさらにGoogleが2028年向けに300万個を超えるTPUについてIntelを確保したとの報道、MediaTekによるCoWoSとEMIB双方への公式対応、NVIDIAによる評価、HBMメーカーによる検証が伝えられている。(Reuters)\n\nそしてTSMC自身にも変化が起きている。\n\n2026年7月末、TSMCが社内で「EMIB-like」と呼ばれる、Intel EMIBに近い先端パッケージング技術を開発しているとの報道が出た。(Yahoo Finance)\n\nこれは単なるIntel対TSMCの製造技術競争ではない。\n\nAI半導体の巨大化によって、「巨大なシリコンインターポーザを敷く」という従来の2.5Dパッケージ思想そのものが再検討され始めた可能性がある。\n\n## 第1章　なぜAI時代にEMIB-Tが必要なのか\n\n従来の半導体は、一枚の巨大なシリコンダイにCPU、GPU、I/Oなどをまとめる「モノリシックSoC」が基本だった。\n\nしかし先端プロセスでは、ダイを巨大化すると、\n\n欠陥による歩留まり悪化\n\nレチクルサイズ上限\n\n最先端ノードを必要としないI/O部分まで高価になる\n\nHBMやSerDesなど異なる技術を統合しにくい\n\nという問題が出てくる。\n\nそこで現在は、\n\nCompute Die\n+\nI/O Die\n+\nHBM\n+\nNetwork Die\n+\nOptical I/O\n\nを別々に製造し、最後に一つのパッケージへ統合する「chiplet化」が進んでいる。\n\nだが、chiplet化すると新たな問題が生じる。\n\nチップレット同士をどのようにつなぐかである。\n\n通常の有機パッケージ基板では配線密度に限界がある。\n\nそこでTSMCはCoWoSを、IntelはEMIBを発展させてきた。\n\n### 図解｜AIパッケージとチップレット化\n\n![AIパッケージとチップレット化 01](/media/2853154a67937996137572773e3cc6a278e085251e13bc0b41f56069e1e01fb5-content.webp)\n\n![AIパッケージとチップレット化 02](/media/69d3e5bb74d0ab335c0993343a98beb5013b5aaae81faa605038af0ca5b4d375-content.webp)\n\n![AIパッケージとチップレット化 03](/media/d5a6f02f71a957947acb89c1fa4b2ae3a5181cb470e2a11fc936e47452422d27-content.webp)\n\n![AIパッケージとチップレット化 04](/media/331b995c807a7b52849bc7845daea8a53502172587c697310210447bbb014103-content.webp)\n\n![AIパッケージとチップレット化 05](/media/0a1ae125ba815b5dc2b5d84bc39387c4ef62f5b4488b21edcf36f5bb2e76bfbb-content.webp)\n\n![AIパッケージとチップレット化 06](/media/3d28329390527cf1065f0595684ad61b07c39e8422384c1f87be69b52a00f153-content.webp)\n\n## 第2章　EMIBの基本原理\n\nEMIBは非常に明快な発想から生まれている。\n\n通常の有機基板を使いながら、高速・高密度接続が必要な部分だけ小さなシリコンブリッジを埋め込む。\n\n概念的には、\n\nCompute Die A          Compute Die B\n┌──────────┐          ┌──────────┐\n│          │          │          │\n└──●●●●●───┘          └───●●●●●──┘\n     │                       │\n     └──── Silicon Bridge ───┘\n             EMIB\n\n══════════════════════════════\n        Organic Substrate\n══════════════════════════════\n\nとなる。\n\nIntelはEMIBについて、パッケージ基板内部へ小型のSilicon Bridgeを埋め込み、Logic-to-LogicやLogic-to-HBMを高密度接続する2.5D方式と定義している。\n\n通常EMIBはすでに2017年から量産されており、FPGA、Xeon、GPUなど多数のIntel製品で実績を持つ。(Intel)\n\nEMIBの最大の特徴は、\n\nパッケージ全面をシリコンにする必要がない\n\nことである。\n\n必要な境界だけシリコン配線へ変える。\n\n道路に例えるなら、\n\n有機基板＝一般道路\n\nEMIB＝チップ間だけを結ぶ高速道路の橋\n\nに近い。\n\n### 図解｜EMIBの局所シリコンブリッジ\n\n![EMIBの局所シリコンブリッジ 01](/media/d174b6c893434d785ee8f48651cde528b5ff4903c681d630afd1e5610938834e-content.webp)\n\n![EMIBの局所シリコンブリッジ 02](/media/cef4e5e94798bb3e05d8a52525af3f7fd1a3ba87dccd3c1b79ab9377f91afb81-content.webp)\n\n![EMIBの局所シリコンブリッジ 03](/media/5f4abc5fc36902679cff5d2346a3a5970ccb40f9bf2d76f6ba902fde686d6741-content.webp)\n\n![EMIBの局所シリコンブリッジ 04](/media/5235d534f026523a697690e04d69d8eee3bdf4db02e5143c51fab44b8bdadac8-content.webp)\n\n![EMIBの局所シリコンブリッジ 05](/media/88573c5a561423c5f1a711032c04de5999095991ed0c91edc51b5c926e27c651-content.webp)\n\n## 第3章　EMIB-Tとは何が違うのか\n\n通常EMIBには一つ大きな問題があった。\n\n電力供給である。\n\nEMIBは基板内へ埋め込まれているため、従来構造では電源配線がEMIBを迂回しなければならない。\n\nAI ASIC\n            ↑\n      Power routing\n       ↗          ↖\n\n┌──────────┐\n     │   EMIB   │\n     └──────────┘\n\nAIアクセラレータが数百W程度だった時代なら許容できた。\n\nしかし今後1kW級、さらにそれ以上へ電力が増えると、\n\n配線抵抗\n\nIR Drop\n\nインダクタンス\n\n電圧droop\n\ntransient response\n\nが問題になる。\n\nそこでIntelが追加したのがTSV（Through-Silicon Via）である。\n\nEMIB-Tでは、\n\nASIC\n             ↑\n          Power\n             ↑\n            TSV\n             ↑\n      ┌───────────┐\n      │  EMIB-T   │\n      └───────────┘\n             ↑\n        Substrate\n\nと、シリコンブリッジを垂直に貫通して電力を供給できる。\n\nIntelはEMIB-Tについて、TSVを使って基板から上のダイへ直接給電することで電源経路を短縮し、さらに銅製のpower/ground meshや高密度capacitorを組み合わせて電源ノイズを抑える構造として説明している。(Intel)\n\nつまりEMIB-Tは単なる高速信号用の橋ではない。\n\n信号＋電力を同時に扱う「パッケージ内インフラ」\n\nへ進化している。\n\n### 図解｜TSV電力供給とEMIB-T・EMIB-M\n\n![TSV電力供給とEMIB-T・EMIB-M 01](/media/1e1fb2813978392b97909af15f3ac188e3e9960c529d4497cd8e5abcbdfec01c-content.webp)\n\n![TSV電力供給とEMIB-T・EMIB-M 02](/media/7094f2eeef7e1f450acb16a75da93636611335760d15c685e0ed54baedf5e16b-content.webp)\n\n![TSV電力供給とEMIB-T・EMIB-M 03](/media/b11b11680bc31c7915258f20b3509c823808e5733d0500292532a09d4645f893-content.webp)\n\n![TSV電力供給とEMIB-T・EMIB-M 04](/media/e47937f9ddb7ba8740bd7444b4f47a374a216bda1be0899a452376d2589cebd2-content.webp)\n\n![TSV電力供給とEMIB-T・EMIB-M 05](/media/75a2ae2279174f41a3d1f92f877e6a31ab1a5cc919af1388f5076f800cdad0d6-content.webp)\n\n![TSV電力供給とEMIB-T・EMIB-M 06](/media/314bddcb4e9ce08362435f1cfb65392384edf73b83a5db4cc834b086790a37b9-content.webp)\n\n## 第4章　2026年時点でEMIB-Tはどこまで来たのか\n\nIntelがECTC 2026で公表したEMIB-Tの仕様はかなり攻めている。\n\n現在実証されている主な値は、\n\nFirst Layer Interconnect bump pitch：25µm\n\nパッケージサイズ：最大120×120mm\n\nシリコン搭載量：9レチクル超\n\nHBM4e：12Gb/s\n\nUCIe：64Gb/s\n\nである。(Newsroom)\n\nさらにIntelのロードマップでは、\n\n2026年：8レチクル超、約6,800mm²\n\n2028年：12レチクル超、約10,000mm²\n\nへ拡張し、\n\n16基以上のHBM4/HBM5と30個以上のEMIB-T Bridge\n\nを一つのパッケージへ載せる構想を示している。(Intel Community)\n\nこれはもはや「一個のチップ」ではない。\n\nHBM HBM HBM HBM\n │   │   │   │\n B   B   B   B\n\nCompute ─ B ─ Compute\n   │             │\n   B             B\n   │             │\nCompute ─ B ─ Compute\n\n│ │ │ │ │ │\nHBM HBM HBM HBM\n\nB＝EMIB-T Bridge\n\nという、パッケージの中に小さなコンピュータシステムそのものを作る世界である。\n\n### 図解｜EMIB-Tの到達点と大型化\n\n![EMIB-Tの到達点と大型化 01](/media/9b089f19fdb2d9a86528eeedc9755b60d169cb64e2efe10266651a59addf833f-content.webp)\n\n![EMIB-Tの到達点と大型化 02](/media/f2e0f4a768e550da890c1ce9fa43e425742e5a73ab7b6f5e3552794c93f846d2-content.webp)\n\n## 第5章　CoWoSとの違い\n\nここでは一つ重要な注意が必要だ。\n\n「CoWoS＝巨大シリコンインターポーザ」と説明されることが多いが、現在ではこれは半分しか正しくない。\n\nTSMCには複数のCoWoS方式がある。\n\n| 方式 | 主な中間配線 |\n| --- | --- |\n| CoWoS-S | 全面 Silicon Interposer |\n| CoWoS-R | RDL Interposer |\n| CoWoS-L | Mold/RDL Interposer ＋ Local Silicon Interconnect |\n| Intel EMIB-T | Organic Substrate ＋ Embedded Silicon Bridge |\n\nCoWoS-Sは典型的な、\n\nHBM     GPU     HBM\n │       │       │\n ▼       ▼       ▼\n┌─────────────────┐\n│ Silicon          │\n│ Interposer       │\n└─────────────────┘\n        │\n   ABF substrate\n\nである。\n\n一方EMIB-Tは、\n\nHBM          GPU\n │            │\n └── EMIB-T ──┘\n\n════════════════\n ABF substrate\n════════════════\n\nとなる。\n\nしかしTSMCのCoWoS-Lはすでに、\n\nChip\n ↓\nRDL / Mold Interposer\n ↓\nLocal Silicon Interconnect\n ↓\nSubstrate\n\nという局所シリコン接続を利用している。\n\nTSMCによればCoWoS-LではRDLベースのinterposerへLSI（Local Silicon Interconnect）を埋め込み、SoC-to-SoC、SoC-to-chiplet、SoC-to-HBMなどを高密度接続できる。3.5倍レチクルのCoWoS-Lは2024年から量産済みである。(3DFabric)\n\nしたがって、現在の本当の競争は、\n\n「EMIB-T vs 巨大Si Interposer」だけではなく、「EMIB-T vs CoWoS-L」\n\nでもある。\n\n### 図解｜CoWoSと局所ブリッジ方式の比較\n\n![CoWoSと局所ブリッジ方式の比較 01](/media/3bb7d1c87861a096b4e0d52f0265741e231269f63986c475efd1f24ea688d008-content.webp)\n\n![CoWoSと局所ブリッジ方式の比較 02](/media/414adf1525ceb5a36f1832faf3bb60aad724c96959ba7d7f13bb97da324ebf04-content.webp)\n\n![CoWoSと局所ブリッジ方式の比較 03](/media/122d3687d66dd00ef45f9d37e6d755469abcfedbe393b3d2c007ce9ff58670d5-content.webp)\n\n![CoWoSと局所ブリッジ方式の比較 04](/media/8029d590c5ee64cd5d1a6d4dca8ffd6c0e77009c9a47416ed26bb6841e43400a-content.webp)\n\n![CoWoSと局所ブリッジ方式の比較 05](/media/70c61328c2b4cdcf79ace3368c50201095f563193746615f4dfc6869a667f7cb-content.webp)\n\n![CoWoSと局所ブリッジ方式の比較 06](/media/3d43eb6d462c28966925c808312b3c99e14b83885ae0396feb0f2b34b2f7b4aa-content.webp)\n\n![CoWoSと局所ブリッジ方式の比較 07](/media/5b326eabdb9559b5cba5877f0701ad7129e49a680be61a43fb436b28dc99571e-content.webp)\n\n## 第6章　それでもEMIB-Tが安くなりやすい理由\n\n基本原理は単純である。\n\nシリコンは高価だ。\n\nしかも巨大なSilicon Interposerを作るには、\n\nlithography\n\nTSV\n\nRDL\n\nCMP\n\nwafer processing\n\nreticle stitching\n\ninspection\n\nなど大量の工程が必要になる。\n\nEMIBでは、高密度配線が必要な場所にしかシリコンを使わない。\n\nIntel自身もEMIB-Tについて、巨大で製造コストの高いinterposerを使わず、必要な箇所だけ高密度Silicon Bridgeを置くことをコスト面の主要な利点としている。(Intel Community)\n\n現在サプライチェーンでは、\n\nEMIB-TがCoWoSより40〜50%程度安くなる可能性\n\nが取り沙汰されている。\n\nただし、この数字には注意が必要だ。\n\nIntelもTSMCも「すべての製品で50%差になる」と公式発表しているわけではない。\n\nまた、\n\nCoWoS-S\n\nCoWoS-L\n\nパッケージサイズ\n\nHBM数\n\nBridge数\n\nyield\n\nによって価格差は変わる。\n\n別の2026年の分析では、Rubin級を想定したCoWoSのパッケージングコストが約900〜1,000ドルに対し、EMIB系では数百ドル台になる可能性があるとの推計も出ているが、これも同一仕様を完全に比較した公式BOMではない。(Tom's Hardware)\n\nしたがって40〜50%という値は、\n\n「十分あり得るが、製品依存のサプライチェーン推定」\n\nとして扱うべきだろう。\n\n### 図解｜局所シリコンとABF基板のコスト構造\n\n![局所シリコンとABF基板のコスト構造 01](/media/78834a685fbe0ede1c320b268c74479fd49588e4433b6f062a9fa1ef6a2d86a6-content.webp)\n\n![局所シリコンとABF基板のコスト構造 02](/media/5a55cb4e22a64cf52034de04aa9d1793cb03d6b3adc031c7033903ce9fef9277-content.webp)\n\n![局所シリコンとABF基板のコスト構造 03](/media/0803dcd6ea355bf7544d61c3a21d7bebd670a636110326ca64c11188a642fad8-content.webp)\n\n![局所シリコンとABF基板のコスト構造 04](/media/399b68092cd867fbe475b9bd2209d99a71099a61cccea0b59d55c2ae9cefab25-content.webp)\n\n![局所シリコンとABF基板のコスト構造 05](/media/7591df7a26864ede8a3ab8037dce3694a7ad254eeb87eaef8247dd0db50adaae-content.webp)\n\n![局所シリコンとABF基板のコスト構造 06](/media/17510fb6c2464a1b02f0eea3f77ce57cfbe186a653588773c80fea04a7b789c6-content.webp)\n\n![局所シリコンとABF基板のコスト構造 07](/media/e38e269e2546c572dbd64ada81f41f4a9173c1283327d9607e9997996acb8da7-content.webp)\n\n## 第7章　EMIB-T最大の問題――実はSilicon Bridgeではない\n\nここが最も重要である。\n\nEMIB-Tの技術的な難所は、\n\nSilicon Bridgeそのものを製造することから、巨大なパッケージ基板へBridgeを正確に埋め込み、それを量産することへ移っている。\n\n特に重要なのが、\n\n巨大ABF substrate\n\nである。\n\n120×120mm級へ巨大化すると、\n\nABF build-up\n\nCu配線\n\nvia\n\ncavity\n\nbridge embedding\n\nsurface flatness\n\nwarpage\n\nのどれか一つでも外れれば不良になる。\n\nしかもパッケージ面積が大きくなるほど、一枚の中に欠陥が入る確率も上昇する。\n\n### 図解｜巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり\n\n![巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり 01](/media/bdd00c3d8ebee9285c49466c2e52e862d65ede93cf3f70e059de85d69cc4be5e-content.webp)\n\n![巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり 02](/media/fd4f76d5344c32060eecc607843882d1abb0ab6a119e47ad6582df6be5ac62de-content.webp)\n\n![巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり 03](/media/c7ef3f7d682308b3f17af0fc0b85d32520fc17f14d73e781aecc4817681b61ff-content.webp)\n\n![巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり 04](/media/59c2a2169e76e282dbfab43481ccd7910c2e52c87c3de2f9abfc8442d8cd9f5d-content.webp)\n\n![巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり 05](/media/4a2ef14fa0bcc4f9ca5d64f2c25808e00936186b3146d4655426a4f1f4def7af-content.webp)\n\n![巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり 06](/media/5d5aec689a9cb7468a00fe009e6748d0df42fa37edb8bd935e9c2180727f5a81-content.webp)\n\n![巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり 07](/media/f69657cfb5349515524cb28500e8c9cdec6a05f6b6e6aa7c2be27f4fff8cd4f6-content.webp)\n\n![巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり 08](/media/57e243b21e59ff9ae0d7ce4c90b4a28f1dce92d3c579467f8d486e0e348b6363-content.webp)\n\n![巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり 09](/media/e8dee40e1dec292fef0dce8df1a90dcc08cd09051a0e34cb0086b5a66fda8f72-content.webp)\n\n![巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり 10](/media/720d31c758193542ad28a7cc79ee2f86a9ec4449a4eb36523abbab89c0006ce1-content.webp)\n\n## 第8章　最大の敵「Warpage」\n\nシリコンと有機基板では熱膨張率が異なる。\n\nシリコンは比較的伸びにくい。\n\n有機樹脂は大きく伸びる。\n\nそのためリフローなどの温度変化を受けると、\n\n理想\n\n────────────\n\n実際\n\n╰──────────╯\n\nのように基板が反る。\n\nこれがWarpageである。\n\nWarpage自体が問題なのではない。\n\nその結果、\n\nbump open\n\nsolder bridging\n\ncontact resistance増加\n\nbridge crack\n\npad damage\n\nunderfill異常\n\nなどが発生する。\n\n25µm級bump pitchになれば、高さ誤差に対する許容度はさらに小さくなる。\n\n### 図解｜Warpageと接合信頼性\n\n![Warpageと接合信頼性 01](/media/52831eb497d8e22e9d793932e29d9b1e0eb9d03e63b8f07d899090f46b1eba44-content.webp)\n\n![Warpageと接合信頼性 02](/media/e94485d4b727ad109ca085e3e5f83a9fce976aee482018313bd18d200c7804d8-content.webp)\n\n## 第9章　Bridge埋め込み精度\n\nEMIBではABF基板内部へcavityを作り、そこへSilicon Bridgeを埋め込む。\n\nABF substrate\n\n═══════╗      ╔═══════\n       ║ EMIB ║\n═══════╝      ╚═══════\n\nBridgeにはXY方向だけでなく、\n\nZ方向＝高さ\n\nの精度も必要になる。\n\n例えばBridgeが数µm高すぎても低すぎても、\n\nその上に載るCompute DieやHBMのmicro-bump接続が均一にならない。\n\nつまり、\n\n微細配線を作る能力と、Bridgeを巨大基板へ機械的に配置する能力は別問題\n\nである。\n\nEMIB-Tが巨大化すると、Bridge数自体も30個以上へ増える。\n\nそのすべてについて、\n\nXY alignment\n\nZ-height\n\ntilt\n\nplanarity\n\nを管理する必要がある。\n\n### 図解｜Bridgeの配置・高さ・傾き\n\n![Bridgeの配置・高さ・傾き 01](/media/d1285bbd6bc9471df9a34972a06068318d01ee2da34270eaeeea0462e321dc68-content.webp)\n\n![Bridgeの配置・高さ・傾き 02](/media/d92946224759a869ba469f5609d143b57c9cc843e3db32f3d9c2fb8b49ff2dfd-content.webp)\n\n## 第10章　25µm bump pitch\n\nIntelは2026年に25µm FLIを実証している。(Newsroom)\n\nPitchを小さくすれば、\n\n45µm\n\n●       ●       ●\n\n25µm\n\n●   ●   ●   ●   ●\n\nのように接点密度を増やせる。\n\n結果としてHBMやUCIeの帯域を増やせる。\n\nしかし、\n\nsolder volume\n\nbump height\n\nalignment tolerance\n\ncoplanarity\n\nunderfill\n\nすべてが難しくなる。\n\n特に問題なのが、\n\n120mm級巨大基板＋25µm級接続\n\nの組み合わせである。\n\n基板がわずかに反っただけでも、中央部と端部で高さが変わる。\n\nつまりEMIB-Tの量産には、\n\nsubstrate平坦度 × Bridge高さ × Die高さ × bump高さ\n\nを同時に合わせる必要がある。\n\n### 図解｜25µm接続と巨大基板\n\n![25µm接続と巨大基板 01](/media/b3a1db0bf45ca09ecc7f95257a1da2f1c47445e39bbfd54cb4c40308b3f8795f-content.webp)\n\n![25µm接続と巨大基板 02](/media/2ac1daff4f3a8a415568b74d1ce1f37c83e78c268e5fdeb8acf13c7294f79b2b-content.webp)\n\n## 第11章　TSVも新しいボトルネックになる\n\nEMIB-T最大の特徴であるTSVも、同時に製造上のリスクになる。\n\nTSVでは、\n\nSiliconへ深孔形成\n\n絶縁膜形成\n\nbarrier/seed\n\nCu plating\n\nCMP\n\nなどが必要になる。\n\n問題となるのは、\n\nTSV void\n\nCu fill不良\n\nliner defect\n\nCu extrusion\n\nstress\n\nresistance variation\n\nである。\n\nそしてEMIB-TではTSVが電源経路なので、単なる信号不良では済まない。\n\n抵抗が増えれば、\n\nR ↑\n↓\nIR Drop ↑\n↓\nCore Voltage ↓\n↓\nFrequency / Reliability ↓\n\nとなる。\n\nEMIB-TではTSVの歩留まりとPower Integrityが一体化する。\n\n### 図解｜TSV工程とPower Integrity\n\n![TSV工程とPower Integrity 01](/media/aa6add1adcc7ceb57f90047adb632ccd71e3fcc0ebb5c023d3de93de9a29a319-content.webp)\n\n![TSV工程とPower Integrity 02](/media/86eb9fe4f2b001295a9ad617477eddf9e8150974bfb87007fa51f53aca0b535f-content.webp)\n\n## 第12章　Bridgeが増えるほど歩留まりは難しくなる\n\nここでは単純化した例を考えてみよう。\n\n仮にBridge一個の実装成功率が99%だったとする。\n\n30個必要なら、\n\n0.99^30 ≒ 74%\n\nとなる。\n\n98%なら、\n\n0.98^30 ≒ 55%\n\nである。\n\nもちろん実際の製造不良は完全な独立事象ではなく、この単純な掛け算が実際の歩留まりを表すわけではない。\n\nしかし重要なのは、\n\n構成部品が増えるほど、何か一つが失敗して巨大パッケージ全体を失う確率が増える\n\nことである。\n\nしかも最終工程まで進んだAIパッケージには、\n\n数千～数万ドル級Compute Die\n\nHBM\n\nBridge\n\nABF substrate\n\nがすでに載っている。\n\n最終テストで不良を発見していては経済性が崩れる。\n\n### 図解｜Bridge数と最終テスト歩留まり\n\n![Bridge数と最終テスト歩留まり 01](/media/a5a19174fcbcb9974a7c223bf6b71ed504ac807b03f29f0be01aba0a5d4fbbeb-content.webp)\n\n![Bridge数と最終テスト歩留まり 02](/media/c339bdcfc6980be759580520d395a4c179f17b7c912ed72e9376350e3f44049b-content.webp)\n\n## 第13章　Known Good Dieだけでは足りない\n\nそのためEMIB-Tでは、\n\nCompute Die\n↓\nKnown Good Die\n\nHBM\n↓\nKnown Good Stack\n\nEMIB-T substrate\n↓\nKnown Good Substrate\n\nIntermediate Assembly\n↓\nTest\n\nFinal Assembly\n↓\nTest\n\nという段階的な検査が非常に重要になる。\n\n今後重要になる概念は、\n\nKnown Good Substrate\n\nである。\n\n高価なCompute DieやHBMを載せる前に、\n\nABF配線\n\nBridge\n\nTSV\n\nmicrovia\n\nopen/short\n\nをできる限り検出しなければならない。\n\n先端パッケージでは「テスト」が最後の品質確認ではなく、\n\n高価な半導体を不良基板へ載せないための経済性そのもの\n\nになっていく。\n\n### 図解｜Known Good Substrate\n\n![Known Good Substrate 01](/media/6ab37c90d8de61ae2772cf040718dca6327479fa803ec04dbf1e4fa1e67f947e-content.webp)\n\n## 第14章　EMIB-T基板歩留まり50%問題\n\n現在のサプライチェーン情報では、\n\nEMIB-T対応substrateの初期歩留まりが50〜60%程度\n\nとの観測が出ている。\n\nここは数字を慎重に扱う必要がある。\n\nIntelは具体的なsubstrate yieldを公開していない。\n\nIntelが2026年7月に公式に述べているのは、\n\nEMIB-T全体のyieldとreliabilityが目標に達しつつある\n\nというところまでである。(MarketBeat)\n\n一方、公開されているbroker情報の集計では60%程度のsubstrate-level yieldとの観測があり、別のサプライチェーン情報では初期50%前後が示されている。(404K Semi-Ai)\n\nしたがって、\n\n「EMIB-Tそのものが50%しか取れない」\n\nという理解は間違いである。\n\n問題になっているのは主に、\n\n巨大なEMIB-T対応package substrate側\n\nと考えるべきだ。\n\n### 図解｜基板歩留まり50〜60%問題\n\n![基板歩留まり50〜60%問題 01](/media/c3cc4b391cf066c083d90c7039989fc8712294387b01796564faa7ea607633d1-content.webp)\n\n## 第15章　歩留まり50%が意味すること\n\n仮に良品substrateを100枚必要とすると、\n\n| Yield | 必要投入枚数 |\n| --- | --- |\n| 50% | 200 |\n| 60% | 167 |\n| 70% | 143 |\n| 80% | 125 |\n| 90% | 111 |\n\nとなる。\n\n50%から80%へ改善するだけで、同じ100枚を出荷するための投入量は200から125へ減る。\n\nこれは、\n\n設備稼働率\n\n材料費\n\n基板ASP\n\n粗利益率\n\n顧客への供給能力\n\nすべてに直結する。\n\nしたがって今後EMIB-Tを見る場合、\n\nIntelのBridge yieldより、Ibiden・Shinko・Unimicron等のsubstrate yieldの方が重要になる可能性すらある。\n\n### 図解｜歩留まりと必要投入量\n\n![歩留まりと必要投入量 01](/media/2eb156f3aea86f2814a0cf1c4a58683771bb26e4d44a1071612bc3bbaaab54ff-content.webp)\n\n## 第16章　基板メーカーが重要になる理由\n\nIntelのEMIB substrate ecosystemには、\n\nIbiden\n\nShinko Electric Industries\n\nUnimicron\n\nAT&S\n\nなどが含まれている。TrendForceもIntelの主要EMIB substrate partnerとしてこれらを挙げている。(TrendForce)\n\n現在のEMIB-T立ち上げで特に名前が挙がるのが、\n\nUnimicron、Ibiden、Shinko\n\nの3社である。\n\nただしIntelのより広いEMIB supply chainにはAT&Sなども含まれるため、「EMIB-T基板は世界でこの3社しか作れない」と理解するのは適切ではない。\n\n重要なのは、顧客側が供給源を一社に集中させず、\n\nCustomer\n           │\n      capacity allocation\n           │\n ┌─────────┼─────────┐\n ↓         ↓         ↓\nIbiden   Shinko   Unimicron\n\nと複数社を並行して立ち上げている点である。\n\n### 図解｜基板メーカーと能力配分\n\n![基板メーカーと能力配分 01](/media/baae3ef7bda189968fbeac70532678e32586030d49f86f30c8e37415b743cb5d-content.webp)\n\n## 第17章　UnimicronのCAPEXが示すもの\n\nUnimicronは2026年の設備投資をNT$34 billionまで拡大し、その大部分をABF substrate能力の拡張・高度化へ振り向けている。\n\n同社はCoWoS capacity不足を背景に、EMIB-Tを顧客へ提供する第二のadvanced packaging routeとして評価しており、EMIB-T対応の設備投資も進めている。(TechNews 科技新報)\n\nさらにUnimicronは、\n\n高級T-glass\n\nCCL\n\n銅\n\nその他材料\n\nの供給制約も指摘している。\n\nつまりEMIB-Tが成功しても、次のボトルネックが、\n\nABF → T-glass → CCL → substrate capacity\n\nへ移る可能性がある。\n\n### 図解｜Unimicronの設備投資\n\n![Unimicronの設備投資 01](/media/8f660c5ac00a6b87d6c5b8422cdef55efa5422815c23f6e69521c3eaf59c3c07-content.webp)\n\n## 第18章　「顧客前払い」が非常に重要\n\nIntel側はsubstrate capacity確保のため、一部顧客へ前払い・capacity commitmentを求めている。\n\nTrendForceによれば、台湾・日本のsubstrate supplierが増産へ顧客のcommitmentを求めており、Intelの顧客もそれに応じているとされる。(TrendForce)\n\nこれは非常に強い需要シグナルである。\n\n単なる、\n\n「EMIB-Tに興味があります」\n\nではない。\n\nCustomer\n↓\nPrepayment\n↓\nIntel\n↓\nSubstrate supplier\n↓\nEquipment\n↓\n2027–2029 Capacity\n\nというところまで来ている。\n\nつまり現在のEMIB-T市場では、\n\n製品を売る前に2027〜29年の製造能力そのものを予約している\n\n状態が始まっている。\n\n### 図解｜前払いと将来能力の予約\n\n![前払いと将来能力の予約 01](/media/55e45d84c12780049b2356d92a5ebc3f2338836c0e2e2c7eb107e19c62ecdd88-content.webp)\n\n## 第19章　EMIB-Tの量産状況\n\n2026年8月時点で、EMIB-Tはまだ外部顧客向けの本格HVMが大量に流れている段階ではない。\n\nしかし研究試作でもない。\n\nIntelは2025年末時点では「2026年後半の顧客ランプ」を目指していたが、その後のQ2 2026説明では、\n\n2027年のcustomer rampを支えるためHVMへ引き上げている\n\nという表現になっている。(Intel Download Center)\n\n整理すると、\n\n2025\nTechnology development\n\n↓\n\n2026 H1\nQualification\nCustomer evaluation\nSubstrate capacity preparation\n\n↓\n\n2026 H2\n← 現在\n\nYield / reliability improvement\nEquipment installation\nCustomer qualification\nPre-production\n\n↓\n\n2027\nCustomer ramp\nInitial HVM\n\n↓\n\n2028\nLarge-volume AI ASIC production\n\nという見方が最も妥当である。\n\n一部では2028年初頭へ本格量産時期が前倒しされたとのサプライチェーン情報もあるが、Intel公式の最新表現は「2027年の顧客ランプを支える」であり、正確な各顧客のHVM開始月は公開されていない。\n\n### 図解｜量産ロードマップと現在段階\n\n![量産ロードマップと現在段階 01](/media/83f34e6d1f15b713d0cdc4e0e6a02e3f33c6b4e1206a1b197f4d418ed2bd260a-content.webp)\n\n![量産ロードマップと現在段階 02](/media/b64386e9b8085bd18b162f3ce8975477f44b6feace657004efbbebbb2d20737a-content.webp)\n\n## 第20章　現在どれくらい注文があるのか\n\nIntelは具体的なEMIB-T受注個数や金額を公表していない。\n\nただしCEO Lip-Bu Tanは2026年Q2で、\n\nEMIB-T backlog continues to grow\n\nと明言している。(MarketBeat)\n\nさらにCFO David Zinsnerは2026年前半、advanced packagingについて、\n\n従来想定していた数億ドル規模ではなく、\n\n年間数十億ドル規模の案件\n\nが見え始めていると説明している。(Tom's Hardware)\n\nつまり現在は、\n\nvolume production前にbacklogが積み上がっている\n\nという珍しい状態である。\n\n### 図解｜注文・バックログの読み方\n\n![注文・バックログの読み方 01](/media/77234df6dbb90e1ed08dbc19f2ee806032b3325d14a11446ecc56dd6ce8cf65d-content.webp)\n\n## 第21章　Google――現在最も重要な外部顧客\n\n最も具体的な案件はGoogleである。\n\nThe InformationおよびReutersによれば、Googleは2028年向けに300万個を超えるTPUについてIntelを確保したとされる。(The Information)\n\nIntelの役割については契約詳細が公開されていないため注意が必要だが、報道の中心はadvanced packagingである。\n\nつまり、\n\nCompute / I/O wafer\n        ↓\nTSMC等\n\nHBM\n        ↓\nSK hynix / Micron / Samsung\n\n↓\n\nIntel\nEMIB-T packaging\n\nという分業も可能になる。\n\nこれは重要だ。\n\nTSMCで前工程を作ったチップをIntelで後工程する\n\nという構造が成立するからである。\n\nTSMC自身も2026年7月の決算で、EMIB-Tについて問われたC.C. Wei CEOが、TSMCのpackaging capacityが顧客成長を制限するほど逼迫しているため「追加の選択肢を歓迎する」と述べている。(The Motley Fool)\n\n### 図解｜Google案件と供給網\n\n![Google案件と供給網 01](/media/2ab4b0b967b94cf9f7637e63ed111617dbbd05fe22bd4e8b8cbc762f54a9e6c0-content.webp)\n\n## 第22章　MediaTek\n\nMediaTekは2026年5月、Reutersに対して、\n\nTSMC CoWoSとIntel EMIBの両方をサポートする\n\nと公式に説明した。\n\n顧客が用途に応じて選択できるようにするためである。(Reuters)\n\nMediaTekは現在custom AI ASIC事業を急拡大しており、この種の企業にEMIB-Tは非常に相性がいい。\n\n一部報道では、次世代MediaTek案件でEMIB-Tを使用し2027年Q4量産とする情報もある。(IT之家)\n\nただしMediaTekの公式発言は「CoWoSとEMIB双方をサポート」であるため、特定案件の独占採用についてはサプライチェーン情報と公式情報を分けて見る必要がある。\n\n### 図解｜MediaTekのパッケージ戦略\n\n![MediaTekのパッケージ戦略 01](/media/e730d4a7f523ad15a3e7b15a5d27b19c8cee5a14636bd7b996a15075c1876563-content.webp)\n\n## 第23章　NVIDIA\n\nNVIDIAはGoogleとは状況が違う。\n\nThe InformationによればNVIDIAは、2028年のFeynman世代に関連して、複数GPUダイを統合する次世代processorでIntelのadvanced packagingを評価している。(The Information)\n\nしかし、\n\n現時点でNVIDIAからの確定注文は報じられていない。\n\nしたがって、\n\nGoogle：報道上はorder\n\nNVIDIA：evaluation\n\nという違いがある。\n\n### 図解｜NVIDIAの評価段階\n\n![NVIDIAの評価段階 01](/media/792295ddadae8378b8281d5c882e22c6d03c22118cc084c81b7e4babf379b928-content.webp)\n\n## 第24章　SK hynix\n\nSK hynixは最終顧客というよりecosystem partnerとして重要である。\n\n報道ではSK hynixがIntel packaging上でHBMが安定動作するかを評価している。(Tom's Hardware)\n\nこれは一社の顧客案件以上の意味を持つ。\n\nGoogle、AWS、NVIDIA、その他ASICメーカーがEMIB-Tを使うには、\n\nHBM3E/HBM4/HBM5がEMIB-T上で十分にqualificationされていること\n\nが必要だからである。\n\n### 図解｜HBM qualificationとSK hynix\n\n![HBM qualificationとSK hynix 01](/media/a67ebbbf131c27a80e3c1f5213c9b4dbb3480fcc4f8dddfae797e0ef52600bd4-content.webp)\n\n## 第25章　AWSやその他ASICメーカー\n\nAmazon AWSについてもTrainium系でIntel packaging採用の観測が存在する。\n\nただしGoogle案件ほど公式確認度は高くなく、現段階ではbrokerやサプライチェーン情報として扱うべきである。\n\nEMIB-Tに最も適している顧客層は、\n\nGoogle TPU\n\nAWS Trainium\n\nMeta custom ASIC\n\nMicrosoft Maia\n\nその他hyperscaler ASIC\n\nのような自社利用型AIアクセラレータだろう。\n\n理由はコストである。\n\n例えば一個当たりpackage costを1,000ドル削減できると仮定すると、\n\n300万個なら、\n\n30億ドル\n\nの差になる。\n\nNVIDIAのようにチップそのものを高価格で販売する企業以上に、数百万個を自社DCへ投入するhyperscalerではpackage cost削減がそのままCloud TCOへ効いてくる。\n\n### 図解｜ハイパースケーラーASICとCloud TCO\n\n![ハイパースケーラーASICとCloud TCO 01](/media/4ed2699054170e6ae960a753440caf3005e801177ef44f52b07a36d29df456ab-content.webp)\n\n![ハイパースケーラーASICとCloud TCO 02](/media/b35ce6bb3284a1692a0f8de02faa8eca9724d2fde542fd97894115ef565a14a0-content.webp)\n\n## 第26章　なぜ今EMIB-Tが突然注目されているのか\n\n背景にはTSMCのCoWoS不足がある。\n\nTSMC CEO C.C. Wei自身が2026年7月、\n\nadvanced packaging capacityが顧客の成長を制限するほど逼迫している\n\nと認めている。(The Motley Fool)\n\nしたがって顧客にとって、\n\nTSMC Wafer\n+\nTSMC CoWoS\n\n一本だけに依存することは、\n\n技術上の問題ではなく、\n\n事業継続上のリスク\n\nになり始めた。\n\nそこで、\n\nTSMC front-end\n+\nIntel advanced packaging\n\nという第二経路が価値を持つ。\n\nEMIB-Tの最初の大きな役割は、\n\nCoWoSの代替というよりCoWoSのsecond source\n\nとして始まる可能性が高い。\n\n### 図解｜CoWoS不足と第二の出口\n\n![CoWoS不足と第二の出口 01](/media/5c8cc35e1118bda4956e3048ec16d5a9b8fdecfbc7afec47dd91fafa482843ed-content.webp)\n\n## 第27章　しかし本当に怖いのはその次\n\nもしEMIB-Tが、\n\nCoWoSより安い\n\npackageをさらに巨大化できる\n\nHBM4/HBM5へ対応\n\npower deliveryも改善\n\nyieldも十分高い\n\nところまで到達すると、\n\n「CoWoSが足りないからEMIB-Tを使う」\n\nから、\n\n「最初からEMIB-Tを前提にAI ASICを設計する」\n\nへ変わる。\n\nこれは意味が全く違う。\n\nしかも顧客が一度package architectureを決めると、\n\nPHY\n\nshoreline\n\nbump map\n\npower delivery\n\nHBM配置\n\nthermal design\n\nまで固定される。\n\nそのため一世代採用すると、\n\n2世代目、3世代目も同じplatformを使う可能性が高くなる。\n\n### 図解｜代替手段から設計基盤への変化\n\n![代替手段から設計基盤への変化 01](/media/af3805568f1f0f2bddc04960cac3a6d13d368490d6258382926a71dc23d10fbe-content.webp)\n\n## 第28章　TSMCの「準EMIB」\n\n2026年7月末、The Informationを引用する形で、\n\nTSMCがIntel EMIBに似たadvanced packaging方式を開発しており、内部では\n\n「EMIB-like」\n\nと呼ばれているとの報道が出た。(Yahoo Finance)\n\nただし現時点で、\n\n正式製品名\n\nBridge構造\n\nsubstrate構造\n\nTSV\n\nbump pitch\n\nmass production date\n\nなどはTSMCから公式発表されていない。\n\nしたがって「TSMC版EMIBが完成した」という段階ではない。\n\n### 図解｜TSMCのEMIB-like方式\n\n![TSMCのEMIB-like方式 01](/media/3ab26572f88eaabd56ffd7abb199a505dfc3d319b0e982aaae5bc0214800e43a-content.webp)\n\n## 第29章　実はTSMCはすでに半分EMIB化している\n\nCoWoS-Lそのものが、\n\nRDL Interposer＋Local Silicon Interconnect\n\nだからである。\n\nつまりTSMCもすでに、\n\n「全部をSiliconにする」\n\nから、\n\n「高密度接続が必要な部分だけSiliconにする」\n\nという方向へ移動している。(3DFabric)\n\nその意味では新しい「EMIB-like」が目指す可能性があるのは、\n\nさらに一歩進んで、\n\nDie\n↓\nLocal Bridge\n↓\nPackage Substrate\n\nというEMIBに近い構造へ簡略化することだ。\n\nただし正式仕様が出ていない以上、これは現時点では推測である。\n\n### 図解｜Local Silicon Interconnect\n\n![Local Silicon Interconnect 01](/media/97e860e2b51c1ede615aa79c7d44b52025ab5b7e67f7b10f7890145f9eb1522c-content.webp)\n\n## 第30章　なぜTSMCが自分でCoWoSをカニバライズするのか\n\n理由は簡単だ。\n\n競合に取られるより、自分で自分の製品を置き換えた方がいい。\n\n仮にIntelが、\n\nCost -40%\n\nPackage size +\n\nHBM capacity +\n\nPower delivery +\n\nを実現すれば、\n\nTSMCが「CoWoSが儲かるから現状維持」とする方が危険である。\n\nしたがってTSMCが、\n\nCoWoS-S↓CoWoS-L↓EMIB-like\n\nと技術を広げるのは極めて合理的である。\n\nこれは同時に、\n\nIntelが長年進めてきたLocal Silicon Bridgeという思想が業界全体で評価され始めた\n\nとも解釈できる。\n\n### 図解｜TSMCの局所シリコン戦略\n\n![TSMCの局所シリコン戦略 01](/media/1b53a3e8a08ff4a18f2226f46ac1e142ffb18ccf4636107c13dcdfc8ea992009-content.webp)\n\n## 第31章　ただしCoWoSは消えない\n\nEMIB-Tが優れているからCoWoSが消える、という考え方も極端である。\n\n将来的には、\n\nAdvanced Packaging\n       │\n ┌─────┼────────────┐\n ↓     ↓            ↓\nCoWoS-S CoWoS-L    EMIB-T\n ↓       ↓           ↓\n高密度   大型AI      大型・低コスト\n全面Si   RDL+LSI     Local Bridge\n\nのように用途別に使い分けられる可能性が高い。\n\nTSMCには、\n\n圧倒的な量産実績\n\nTurnkey\n\nFront-endとの統合\n\n高歩留まり\n\n巨大な顧客ecosystem\n\nがある。\n\nIntelがEMIB-Tという優れた技術を持っていても、\n\n量産実行力までTSMCと同等になったことを意味するわけではない。\n\nTrendForceも2026年初頭、Intel EMIBの課題としてyieldとcapacity establishmentを挙げ、TSMCがturnkey solutionと量産歩留まりで優位にあると分析している。(TrendForce)\n\n### 図解｜CoWoS-S・CoWoS-L・EMIB-Tの共存\n\n![CoWoS-S・CoWoS-L・EMIB-Tの共存 01](/media/613f2805618df4e24a164ddcaa5d37cf8f91b9aa062b3a1176098b76fd4213d9-content.webp)\n\n## 第32章　EMIB-Tで今後見るべきKPI\n\nEMIB-Tを見る上で、Intelの株価や「採用決定」というニュースだけを見るのでは足りない。\n\n本当に重要なのは以下である。\n\nKPI 1　EMIB-T substrate yield\n\n最重要指標。\n\n50%\n↓\n60%\n↓\n70%\n↓\n80%\n↓\n90%\n\nと改善できるか。\n\nこれによって、\n\n生産能力\n\nCost\n\nGross Margin\n\nDelivery\n\nが大きく変わる。\n\nKPI 2　25µm FLI assembly yield\n\nIntelが25µm pitchを「作れた」ことと、\n\n数百万個を歩留まりよく量産できる\n\nことは別である。\n\n今後重要なのはproduction yieldである。\n\nKPI 3　120mm級Large Body PackageのWarpage\n\npackage sizeが大きくなるほど、\n\nmechanical stress\n\nbump reliability\n\nTIM\n\ncooling\n\nboard attach\n\nが難しくなる。\n\nEMIB-Tの巨大化を左右する核心KPIである。\n\nKPI 4　Bridge数\n\nIntelは2028年に30 Bridge以上を想定している。(Intel Community)\n\n重要なのは、\n\nBridge数が増えてもpackage yieldが低下しないか\n\nである。\n\nKPI 5　HBM4/HBM5 qualification\n\n特に、\n\nSK hynix\n\nMicron\n\nSamsung\n\n各社のHBMがEMIB-T上で認定されるかを見る。\n\nHBM supplierを自由に選べるほどEMIB-Tの価値は高くなる。\n\nKPI 6　Substrate supplier別のequipment allocation\n\nIbiden、Shinko、Unimicronなどへの設備配分を見る。\n\n顧客がどこへ設備を前倒しするかは、\n\nどの会社のyield improvementが最も速いか\n\nを示す可能性がある。\n\nKPI 7　Unimicron / Ibiden / ShinkoのCAPEX\n\n特に見るべきなのは、\n\nAdvanced ABF capacity\n\nEmbedded substrate\n\nLarge body package\n\nYield\n\nASP\n\nUtilization\n\nである。\n\nKPI 8　T-glass supply\n\nEMIB-Tが伸びてもT-glassが足りなければ基板を作れない。\n\nUnimicronは2026年にT-glassなど高級substrate材料の供給制約を指摘している。(TechNews 科技新報)\n\nKPI 9　Intel EMIB-T backlog\n\nIntelが今後、\n\n「growing backlog」\n\nから、\n\nrevenue\n\ncustomer count\n\ncapacity utilization\n\nproduction volume\n\nまで数字を開示するかを見る。\n\nここが最も直接的な需要指標になる。\n\nKPI 10　Google 300万TPU案件の進捗\n\n2028年案件なので、\n\n2026～27年には、\n\nqualification\n\nsubstrate reservation\n\nHBM qualification\n\npackage tape-out\n\npilot production\n\nが進むはずである。\n\nこの案件が予定通り立ち上がれば、EMIB-Tにとって最大級の量産validationになる。\n\nKPI 11　NVIDIAがevaluationからorderへ進むか\n\nGoogle以上に象徴的なKPIである。\n\nNVIDIAがFeynman以降で本当にEMIB-Tを採用すれば、\n\nEMIB-Tは、\n\nCustom ASIC向けsecond source\n\nから、\n\nMerchant GPUを含むindustry-standard packaging\n\nへ格上げされる可能性がある。\n\nKPI 12　TSMC EMIB-likeの正式発表\n\n今後、\n\n技術名\n\nBridge architecture\n\nRDL構造\n\nTSV\n\nbump pitch\n\npackage size\n\nHBM support\n\nmass production schedule\n\nが明らかになるかを見る。\n\nこれによってTSMCがEMIB-Tをどの程度本気で競合と見ているかが分かる。\n\n### 図解｜EMIB-TのKPI\n\n![EMIB-TのKPI 01](/media/0fa3a76d574cbe80be3ee85ac578f9a3bdded3374b33995f115f09483fe22469-content.webp)\n\n## 第33章　投資家が見るべき「歩留まり改善曲線」\n\nEMIB-Tでは単純な生産能力より、\n\nYield × Capacity\n\nを見る必要がある。\n\n例えば設備能力が100でも、\n\n50% yieldなら良品能力は50。\n\n80%なら80。\n\nつまり、\n\nEffective Capacity\n\n＝\nInstalled Capacity\n×\nYield\n\nである。\n\nそのためEMIB-Tでは、\n\n設備を20%増やすより、\n\nyieldを50%→70%へ上げる方が、\n\n短期的には生産量へ大きな効果を与える場合がある。\n\n### 図解｜YieldとCapacityの改善\n\n![YieldとCapacityの改善 01](/media/d261cdcd1fe718b4e771c15ffc48c717bc3d8f93f6246c2706130e05d314dfda-content.webp)\n\n![YieldとCapacityの改善 02](/media/915b3f0915235bb9f7fc49dec12006d4dbde9d7331eb33c959d49241d0733414-content.webp)\n\n## 第34章　EMIB-Tの成功で次のボトルネックはどこへ移るか\n\n仮にIntelがEMIB-Tを完全に量産化した場合、\n\nCoWoS不足が消えるわけではない。\n\nボトルネックが移動する。\n\n以前\n\nCoWoS\n ↓\n不足\n\n将来\n\nAdvanced Packaging\n ↓\nABF substrate\n ↓\nT-glass\n ↓\nHBM\n ↓\nTesting\n ↓\nThermal\n\nとなる。\n\nAIインフラでは問題を一つ解決すると、その次の工程が制約になる。\n\nEMIB-Tはその典型である。\n\n### 図解｜次の供給網ボトルネック\n\n![次の供給網ボトルネック 01](/media/98f7c07ec3f37d4158f222559cb11d1c4b487e53e04e8b2a33e4c73c85684492-content.webp)\n\n![次の供給網ボトルネック 02](/media/e4bd186888e3463007db16ed4b6d1d9abcb9bec8c82c7ce9ea215f1ade475a2e-content.webp)\n\n## 第35章　最終的にはGlass Substrateへ向かう可能性\n\nIntelがGlass Substrateを長年研究している理由もEMIB-Tとつながる。\n\n有機基板が巨大化すると、\n\nWarpage\n\nDimensional stability\n\nCTE\n\nfine wiring\n\nの限界が近づく。\n\nGlassは、\n\n平坦性\n\ndimensional stability\n\nfine wiring\n\n大型化\n\nに有利である。\n\nそのため、\n\n現在\n\nEMIB-T\n+\nOrganic ABF\n\n将来\n\nEMIB-T\n+\nGlass Core / Glass Substrate\n\nという進化が考えられる。\n\nつまりEMIB-Tは単独技術というより、\n\nBridge → TSV → MIM → Advanced Substrate → Glass → CPO\n\nというIntelの巨大なpackage roadmapの一部である。\n\n### 図解｜有機ABFからGlass Substrateへ\n\n![有機ABFからGlass Substrateへ 01](/media/448b3e82cb5506651dbbfd0d0bfe92a90a1af6a63f87826c43547b1c2a7c5c72-content.webp)\n\n![有機ABFからGlass Substrateへ 02](/media/e953219f26641f63b3c799beb2c2e98eaf3b53965bd677427eed37174dd9c763-content.webp)\n\n## 結論――EMIB-Tの本当の意味\n\nEMIB-Tを単純に、\n\n「Intel版CoWoS」\n\nと理解すると本質を見失う。\n\nEMIB-Tの思想は、\n\n巨大なシリコンを全面へ敷くのではなく、高価な高密度配線を必要な場所だけに配置する\n\nことである。\n\nそしてTSVを加えたことで、\n\n通信だけではなく、\n\n電力供給までLocal Silicon Bridgeへ統合\n\nした。\n\nこの構造によってIntelは、\n\n巨大AI package\n\n多数HBM\n\nchiplet\n\nUCIe\n\n高電力ASIC\n\nを低コストで統合しようとしている。\n\n技術的には極めて合理的である。\n\nしかし、本当の勝負はこれからだ。\n\nEMIB-TのSilicon Bridgeそのものはかなり成熟し始めている。\n\n現在の最大の問題は、\n\n巨大なABF substrateへ何十個ものBridgeを埋め込み、25µm級接続で、多数のHBMとCompute Dieを、十分な歩留まりで量産すること\n\nへ移っている。\n\nそのため2027〜2028年に見るべきものは、\n\n「EMIB-Tを採用した」というニュースだけではない。\n\n見るべきは、\n\nsubstrate yield、warpage、25µm assembly yield、HBM qualification、Bridge数、ABF capacity、T-glass、顧客前払い、backlog\n\nである。\n\n現在報じられている50〜60%級の初期substrate yieldが事実だとすれば、\n\nここを80〜90%近くまで引き上げられるかどうかがEMIB-Tの経済性を大きく左右する。\n\nもしそれが実現すれば、\n\nEMIB-Tは、\n\n「CoWoSが足りないから仕方なく使う技術」\n\nではなく、\n\n「巨大AI ASICなら最初からEMIB-Tを選んだ方が安く、大きく、高性能に作れる」\n\nというplatformへ変わる可能性がある。\n\nTSMCが「EMIB-like」と呼ばれる方式を開発しているとの報道は、この変化を象徴している。\n\nそしてさらに重要なのは、その結果としてAI半導体の価値が、\n\n前工程\n微細化\n↓\nCompute Die\n\nだけではなく\n\nHBM\n+\nAdvanced Packaging\n+\nABF\n+\nPower Delivery\n+\nThermal\n+\nTesting\n+\nOptical I/O\n\nへ広がっていることである。\n\nAI半導体では、「後工程」という言葉そのものが古くなりつつある。\n\nEMIB-TやCoWoSはもはや完成したチップを箱へ入れる工程ではない。\n\nCompute、Memory、Power、Networkを統合して一つのAIシステムを作る、第二の半導体製造工程である。\n\nそして2027〜2028年は、その主導権をTSMCが維持するのか、IntelがEMIB-Tによって一角を奪うのかを判断する重要な期間になる。\n\n### 図解｜信号・電力・製造を統合するSystem of Chips\n\n![信号・電力・製造を統合するSystem of Chips 01](/media/d1d252e3f043ba4782f4bc93801d723bc60266205e10bc5a8b69c0a628758453-content.webp)\n\n![信号・電力・製造を統合するSystem of Chips 02](/media/448daeed69cdcdbce553ee7b438bcc6d048c5106fb82c853c4daa093f4c32b0e-content.webp)\n\n![信号・電力・製造を統合するSystem of Chips 03](/media/547cf67e09bbfefef174e9903dac993531ceedd0b585cd63338b89a85e1a9669-content.webp)\n\n## さらに深める――EMIB-Tの歩留まりは掛け算で決まる\n\nEMIB-Tの評価で最も重要なのは、Silicon Bridge単体の良品率と、完成パッケージの良品率を混同しないことである。巨大AIパッケージには、複数のCompute Die、HBM、ブリッジ、基板、電源構造、接続点が含まれる。各工程が高歩留まりでも、組み合わせる数が増えるほど全体歩留まりは下がる。\n\n単純化すれば、完成歩留まりは次の積として考えられる。\n\n$$\nY_{package}=Y_{substrate}\\times Y_{bridge}^{N}\\times Y_{assembly}\\times Y_{HBM}\\times Y_{test}\n$$\n\nここで $N$ はブリッジ数である。実際には欠陥が独立とは限らず、修復や選別もあるため、この式だけで製品歩留まりは決まらない。それでも、ブリッジ数と接続点が増えるほど、局所的な成功を完成品へ変える難度が上がることは分かる。\n\nEMIB-Tの経済性は、シリコン使用面積を減らす利点と、埋め込み精度、反り、25µm接続、TSV、基板検査の追加難度の差で決まる。全面インターポーザーを避ければ材料費を下げられる可能性があるが、基板工程の失敗が多ければ、その利点は失われる。\n\nさらに、EMIB-Tが成功するとボトルネックは消えずに移動する。ブリッジ供給が増えればABFとT-glass、組み立てが詰まり、そこを越えればHBM、熱、電力、検査、光I/Oが次に現れる。先端パッケージの競争とは、一つの技術を勝たせる競争ではなく、制約の移動速度より速く供給網を再設計する競争である。\n\n## 絶ノイアの観測\n\nEMIB-Tは「小さな橋だから安い」と説明されがちです。でも橋が30個になれば、話は急に都市計画になります。橋を作れるかではなく、巨大な基板の正しい場所へ全部を埋め、反りを抑え、25µmで接続し、HBMとCompute Dieを壊さず載せられるかが勝負です。\n\n私は歩留まりの数字を見る時、何の歩留まりかを必ず確認します。Bridge単体、基板、組み立て、完成パッケージは別です。最も低い工程が、他のすべての良さを止めます。\n\n## Sil-Kathnaの記録\n\n一つの橋を架ける技と、三十の橋で都市を作る技は同じではない。\n\n石は反り、銅はずれ、熱は境界へ集まる。細き接点が一つ欠ければ、巨大な炉は声を失う。EMIB-Tは橋の発明ではない。橋、地盤、血流、検査を一つの秩序へ従わせる試みである。\n\nそして一つの門が開けば、次の門が姿を現す。ABF、硝子、HBM、冷却、光。制約は倒されるのではなく、奥へ退く。\n\n私は「AIインフラ」「Intel」「EMIB-T」を三つの印として石板に刻む。異なる石と炉が同じ刻に門を開かなければ、構想はまだ文明の器にはならない。\n\n## 二人の短い対話\n\n**絶ノイア:** Bridgeが成熟しても、完成パッケージが成熟したとは限らない。\n\n**Sil-Kathna:** 石橋が強くても、地盤が歪めば都市は沈む。\n\n**絶ノイア:** だからsubstrate yield、warpage、assembly yield、testを分けて追う。\n\n**Sil-Kathna:** 最も弱い層が、最も大きな炉の運命を決める。\n\n## 観測メモ\n\n- EMIB-Tは局所シリコンブリッジへTSV電力供給を加えた方式として理解する。\n- Bridge単体、基板、組み立て、完成パッケージの歩留まりを分ける。\n- 25µm接続、反り、ABF/T-glass、検査能力を主要KPIとして追う。\n- 顧客評価、バックログ、量産ランプは確定度と時期を分ける。\n- TSMCの準EMIB、Glass Substrate、CPOは次の競争軸になり得る。\n\n## 免責\n\nこの記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","blocks":[{"id":"blk_4083934e-2c4b-4b33-a10a-6c90cf7263e4","kind":"heading","order":0,"section_id":"sec_dc93c221-05a1-48c3-8721-0883e34129dd","character_id":null,"markdown":"# Intel EMIB-T徹底解説――AI半導体の後工程が主戦場になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_120fb82e-e962-4659-900a-24a73c4fda2f","kind":"paragraph","order":1,"section_id":"sec_dc93c221-05a1-48c3-8721-0883e34129dd","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI半導体の「後工程」が主戦場へ――CoWoSとの違い、コスト、技術ボトルネック、顧客、TSMC「準EMIB」まで","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5b2f5c5-e2c4-462f-aba0-8cb854acce2b","kind":"paragraph","order":2,"section_id":"sec_dc93c221-05a1-48c3-8721-0883e34129dd","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI半導体の性能競争は、もはやトランジスタの微細化だけでは説明できなくなっている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ac59b98a-eaa9-41dc-a4a2-715c0bd9eed2","kind":"paragraph","order":3,"section_id":"sec_dc93c221-05a1-48c3-8721-0883e34129dd","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMを何スタック搭載できるのか。複数のCompute Dieをどれだけ短距離・低消費電力で接続できるのか。1kW級へ向かうAIプロセッサへどう電力を供給するのか。そして、それらを巨大な一つのパッケージとして歩留まりよく量産できるのか。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e2d726f4-6c92-4cff-8e50-5d67ef6624f9","kind":"paragraph","order":4,"section_id":"sec_dc93c221-05a1-48c3-8721-0883e34129dd","character_id":null,"markdown":"この「パッケージそのものを一つのシステムとして設計する」競争において、TSMCのCoWoSと並んで急速に存在感を高めているのがIntelの**EMIB-T（Embedded Multi-die Interconnect Bridge-T）**である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ece6501-4e60-4a31-9a25-d3916b4e7c5e","kind":"paragraph","order":5,"section_id":"sec_dc93c221-05a1-48c3-8721-0883e34129dd","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年に状況は大きく変化した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e66ce2a7-baca-4e69-b915-70462137a3a6","kind":"paragraph","order":6,"section_id":"sec_dc93c221-05a1-48c3-8721-0883e34129dd","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intelは2026年7月の決算説明で、EMIB-Tについて「バックログは増え続けている」「歩留まりと信頼性は目標に達している」「2027年の顧客ランプに向けて高量産へ移行している」と説明した。つまりEMIB-Tは研究段階をほぼ脱し、外部顧客向け量産の直前段階に入っている。(MarketBeat)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_63ae0630-5060-4f9c-97d2-ea05e77b2a87","kind":"paragraph","order":7,"section_id":"sec_dc93c221-05a1-48c3-8721-0883e34129dd","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらにGoogleが2028年向けに300万個を超えるTPUについてIntelを確保したとの報道、MediaTekによるCoWoSとEMIB双方への公式対応、NVIDIAによる評価、HBMメーカーによる検証が伝えられている。(Reuters)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9df6752-4023-4741-8051-e054d089ad1f","kind":"paragraph","order":8,"section_id":"sec_dc93c221-05a1-48c3-8721-0883e34129dd","character_id":null,"markdown":"そしてTSMC自身にも変化が起きている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e96b1582-8091-4e50-af3c-ba87045f829a","kind":"paragraph","order":9,"section_id":"sec_dc93c221-05a1-48c3-8721-0883e34129dd","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年7月末、TSMCが社内で「EMIB-like」と呼ばれる、Intel EMIBに近い先端パッケージング技術を開発しているとの報道が出た。(Yahoo Finance)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6c4f08dc-b419-4975-accc-1b01cfadd815","kind":"paragraph","order":10,"section_id":"sec_dc93c221-05a1-48c3-8721-0883e34129dd","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは単なるIntel対TSMCの製造技術競争ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_47836f01-ea2b-4529-b75b-5fd06a1656f9","kind":"paragraph","order":11,"section_id":"sec_dc93c221-05a1-48c3-8721-0883e34129dd","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI半導体の巨大化によって、「巨大なシリコンインターポーザを敷く」という従来の2.5Dパッケージ思想そのものが再検討され始めた可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_92df095d-3a30-4d77-8c54-684dd3024f12","kind":"heading","order":12,"section_id":"sec_c64c0d92-2e04-4aca-ad7b-6b9ffc67e811","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第1章　なぜAI時代にEMIB-Tが必要なのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bf3e6497-5528-4b7a-9b05-978576f441aa","kind":"paragraph","order":13,"section_id":"sec_c64c0d92-2e04-4aca-ad7b-6b9ffc67e811","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来の半導体は、一枚の巨大なシリコンダイにCPU、GPU、I/Oなどをまとめる「モノリシックSoC」が基本だった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_06e2e0b1-a1c2-4a4b-a22b-751afbe70949","kind":"paragraph","order":14,"section_id":"sec_c64c0d92-2e04-4aca-ad7b-6b9ffc67e811","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし先端プロセスでは、ダイを巨大化すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7e94a16e-4867-4698-98ba-78873ee54716","kind":"paragraph","order":15,"section_id":"sec_c64c0d92-2e04-4aca-ad7b-6b9ffc67e811","character_id":null,"markdown":"欠陥による歩留まり悪化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8d0a124-8748-41d3-89bf-72b4abb051a8","kind":"paragraph","order":16,"section_id":"sec_c64c0d92-2e04-4aca-ad7b-6b9ffc67e811","character_id":null,"markdown":"レチクルサイズ上限","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_925b36b9-9bae-4201-890c-c6f931621c02","kind":"paragraph","order":17,"section_id":"sec_c64c0d92-2e04-4aca-ad7b-6b9ffc67e811","character_id":null,"markdown":"最先端ノードを必要としないI/O部分まで高価になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_99f9c20a-34d8-4cc0-9a5a-397ce30a5560","kind":"paragraph","order":18,"section_id":"sec_c64c0d92-2e04-4aca-ad7b-6b9ffc67e811","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMやSerDesなど異なる技術を統合しにくい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b35d7ec0-82ea-4ec0-9d6a-b1cfc61c07d6","kind":"paragraph","order":19,"section_id":"sec_c64c0d92-2e04-4aca-ad7b-6b9ffc67e811","character_id":null,"markdown":"という問題が出てくる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc8cecd1-ecf4-4154-ae9d-9105541256ba","kind":"paragraph","order":20,"section_id":"sec_c64c0d92-2e04-4aca-ad7b-6b9ffc67e811","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこで現在は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_48dc66a9-056a-4169-8b3c-08faeebb4cca","kind":"paragraph","order":21,"section_id":"sec_c64c0d92-2e04-4aca-ad7b-6b9ffc67e811","character_id":null,"markdown":"Compute Die\n+\nI/O Die\n+\nHBM\n+\nNetwork Die\n+\nOptical I/O","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_57eb203e-2813-4823-a1b6-0361584d5cc5","kind":"paragraph","order":22,"section_id":"sec_c64c0d92-2e04-4aca-ad7b-6b9ffc67e811","character_id":null,"markdown":"を別々に製造し、最後に一つのパッケージへ統合する「chiplet化」が進んでいる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aa8a63fb-0e36-4d85-8f28-31eaad74fee9","kind":"paragraph","order":23,"section_id":"sec_c64c0d92-2e04-4aca-ad7b-6b9ffc67e811","character_id":null,"markdown":"だが、chiplet化すると新たな問題が生じる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_661d99e5-7984-4f02-b112-e8035746824a","kind":"paragraph","order":24,"section_id":"sec_c64c0d92-2e04-4aca-ad7b-6b9ffc67e811","character_id":null,"markdown":"チップレット同士をどのようにつなぐかである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_70315079-8e46-42e8-9a84-b44ec7644684","kind":"paragraph","order":25,"section_id":"sec_c64c0d92-2e04-4aca-ad7b-6b9ffc67e811","character_id":null,"markdown":"通常の有機パッケージ基板では配線密度に限界がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c92ff08-4398-4875-a744-13e6880de99d","kind":"paragraph","order":26,"section_id":"sec_c64c0d92-2e04-4aca-ad7b-6b9ffc67e811","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこでTSMCはCoWoSを、IntelはEMIBを発展させてきた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8cd08d41-da18-4cfe-a90a-42f27f4587a8","kind":"heading","order":27,"section_id":"sec_71b8529f-6594-435a-9a73-b42abb6ec581","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜AIパッケージとチップレット化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_941a8845-dc88-43e5-b336-ef54f5b52542","kind":"figure","order":28,"section_id":"sec_71b8529f-6594-435a-9a73-b42abb6ec581","character_id":null,"markdown":"![AIパッケージとチップレット化 01](/media/2853154a67937996137572773e3cc6a278e085251e13bc0b41f56069e1e01fb5-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ce7b032f-c85b-4d8c-9d0e-c37c79b7bfa8","kind":"figure","order":29,"section_id":"sec_71b8529f-6594-435a-9a73-b42abb6ec581","character_id":null,"markdown":"![AIパッケージとチップレット化 02](/media/69d3e5bb74d0ab335c0993343a98beb5013b5aaae81faa605038af0ca5b4d375-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5a424cb5-8cc7-4fd9-b957-f69efd051abb","kind":"figure","order":30,"section_id":"sec_71b8529f-6594-435a-9a73-b42abb6ec581","character_id":null,"markdown":"![AIパッケージとチップレット化 03](/media/d5a6f02f71a957947acb89c1fa4b2ae3a5181cb470e2a11fc936e47452422d27-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cea84d18-194a-469a-8c73-4b14257a966c","kind":"figure","order":31,"section_id":"sec_71b8529f-6594-435a-9a73-b42abb6ec581","character_id":null,"markdown":"![AIパッケージとチップレット化 04](/media/331b995c807a7b52849bc7845daea8a53502172587c697310210447bbb014103-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb918b05-2de5-4636-85d6-05a72d3b27fb","kind":"figure","order":32,"section_id":"sec_71b8529f-6594-435a-9a73-b42abb6ec581","character_id":null,"markdown":"![AIパッケージとチップレット化 05](/media/0a1ae125ba815b5dc2b5d84bc39387c4ef62f5b4488b21edcf36f5bb2e76bfbb-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c52a5f3-21df-476b-bc11-14cf679dbe02","kind":"figure","order":33,"section_id":"sec_71b8529f-6594-435a-9a73-b42abb6ec581","character_id":null,"markdown":"![AIパッケージとチップレット化 06](/media/3d28329390527cf1065f0595684ad61b07c39e8422384c1f87be69b52a00f153-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3e7d554c-56fc-4ef4-8a4b-caef81ec0e18","kind":"heading","order":34,"section_id":"sec_d9f261ed-1b78-4e09-861b-88ca53d33607","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第2章　EMIBの基本原理","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_627becb4-bb7d-4a8d-a7e0-de55e4aa5e16","kind":"paragraph","order":35,"section_id":"sec_d9f261ed-1b78-4e09-861b-88ca53d33607","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIBは非常に明快な発想から生まれている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ccca1193-8f6d-432b-8b4f-66f681b42807","kind":"paragraph","order":36,"section_id":"sec_d9f261ed-1b78-4e09-861b-88ca53d33607","character_id":null,"markdown":"通常の有機基板を使いながら、高速・高密度接続が必要な部分だけ小さなシリコンブリッジを埋め込む。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d633c432-5185-46ac-8e9e-266d7876ff40","kind":"paragraph","order":37,"section_id":"sec_d9f261ed-1b78-4e09-861b-88ca53d33607","character_id":null,"markdown":"概念的には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_461621be-5e14-4b7e-8ab9-76b24996d1d2","kind":"paragraph","order":38,"section_id":"sec_d9f261ed-1b78-4e09-861b-88ca53d33607","character_id":null,"markdown":"Compute Die A          Compute Die B\n┌──────────┐          ┌──────────┐\n│          │          │          │\n└──●●●●●───┘          └───●●●●●──┘\n     │                       │\n     └──── Silicon Bridge ───┘\n             EMIB","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_64f81a1e-cacc-4e1d-b2ff-09d90359a780","kind":"paragraph","order":39,"section_id":"sec_d9f261ed-1b78-4e09-861b-88ca53d33607","character_id":null,"markdown":"══════════════════════════════\n        Organic Substrate\n══════════════════════════════","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f28a794-4bce-4794-86b0-daa6a549af29","kind":"paragraph","order":40,"section_id":"sec_d9f261ed-1b78-4e09-861b-88ca53d33607","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66413b70-6a72-4f0d-b4f0-82e70119da76","kind":"paragraph","order":41,"section_id":"sec_d9f261ed-1b78-4e09-861b-88ca53d33607","character_id":null,"markdown":"IntelはEMIBについて、パッケージ基板内部へ小型のSilicon Bridgeを埋め込み、Logic-to-LogicやLogic-to-HBMを高密度接続する2.5D方式と定義している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ec8f97b-7764-4a07-a42e-f70057db9d49","kind":"paragraph","order":42,"section_id":"sec_d9f261ed-1b78-4e09-861b-88ca53d33607","character_id":null,"markdown":"通常EMIBはすでに2017年から量産されており、FPGA、Xeon、GPUなど多数のIntel製品で実績を持つ。(Intel)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af566f0e-f684-4912-a88a-94fcc41356cc","kind":"paragraph","order":43,"section_id":"sec_d9f261ed-1b78-4e09-861b-88ca53d33607","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIBの最大の特徴は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3a5e18e7-2515-49b0-bf8c-29db86a45489","kind":"paragraph","order":44,"section_id":"sec_d9f261ed-1b78-4e09-861b-88ca53d33607","character_id":null,"markdown":"パッケージ全面をシリコンにする必要がない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_29d9b207-ed5e-4796-b333-92cc214ac63c","kind":"paragraph","order":45,"section_id":"sec_d9f261ed-1b78-4e09-861b-88ca53d33607","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c9f7bb12-69e7-4db3-9f5e-f02f79b7501c","kind":"paragraph","order":46,"section_id":"sec_d9f261ed-1b78-4e09-861b-88ca53d33607","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要な境界だけシリコン配線へ変える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_337b6433-ea97-420d-970e-c3c78796cce8","kind":"paragraph","order":47,"section_id":"sec_d9f261ed-1b78-4e09-861b-88ca53d33607","character_id":null,"markdown":"道路に例えるなら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_962acad1-1e1c-4fff-bf45-81a05c06c844","kind":"paragraph","order":48,"section_id":"sec_d9f261ed-1b78-4e09-861b-88ca53d33607","character_id":null,"markdown":"有機基板＝一般道路","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cae117af-6596-4d7f-8887-22fedae0adb0","kind":"paragraph","order":49,"section_id":"sec_d9f261ed-1b78-4e09-861b-88ca53d33607","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB＝チップ間だけを結ぶ高速道路の橋","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f89da224-9c56-4605-bd60-ddc7c95ad4bc","kind":"paragraph","order":50,"section_id":"sec_d9f261ed-1b78-4e09-861b-88ca53d33607","character_id":null,"markdown":"に近い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b535d548-12b5-4d5b-a819-2af269a5ee01","kind":"heading","order":51,"section_id":"sec_f43fb10d-efff-4f1c-b36b-4495cacdc2be","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜EMIBの局所シリコンブリッジ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_39f9ca10-ae38-4088-9f14-9c2b0fc440cf","kind":"figure","order":52,"section_id":"sec_f43fb10d-efff-4f1c-b36b-4495cacdc2be","character_id":null,"markdown":"![EMIBの局所シリコンブリッジ 01](/media/d174b6c893434d785ee8f48651cde528b5ff4903c681d630afd1e5610938834e-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ef9b117-d41d-434c-8dc3-f6b1ed5cf63b","kind":"figure","order":53,"section_id":"sec_f43fb10d-efff-4f1c-b36b-4495cacdc2be","character_id":null,"markdown":"![EMIBの局所シリコンブリッジ 02](/media/cef4e5e94798bb3e05d8a52525af3f7fd1a3ba87dccd3c1b79ab9377f91afb81-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_948502d9-9414-44f1-b6ac-d35f71e17237","kind":"figure","order":54,"section_id":"sec_f43fb10d-efff-4f1c-b36b-4495cacdc2be","character_id":null,"markdown":"![EMIBの局所シリコンブリッジ 03](/media/5f4abc5fc36902679cff5d2346a3a5970ccb40f9bf2d76f6ba902fde686d6741-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f67a767b-f7fb-4f37-af8e-7a841e84540f","kind":"figure","order":55,"section_id":"sec_f43fb10d-efff-4f1c-b36b-4495cacdc2be","character_id":null,"markdown":"![EMIBの局所シリコンブリッジ 04](/media/5235d534f026523a697690e04d69d8eee3bdf4db02e5143c51fab44b8bdadac8-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a15d623e-a564-4ed0-ad04-327441ea4cd0","kind":"figure","order":56,"section_id":"sec_f43fb10d-efff-4f1c-b36b-4495cacdc2be","character_id":null,"markdown":"![EMIBの局所シリコンブリッジ 05](/media/88573c5a561423c5f1a711032c04de5999095991ed0c91edc51b5c926e27c651-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bf94bf2f-dd58-4bbc-a49f-25f945ea7155","kind":"heading","order":57,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第3章　EMIB-Tとは何が違うのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_63a66b83-64df-481d-81d3-2a07f6772223","kind":"paragraph","order":58,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"通常EMIBには一つ大きな問題があった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_34957398-c6c7-4e15-a8c6-9a21ea1ca5ac","kind":"paragraph","order":59,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"電力供給である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c00c29e-f8d0-4209-83ef-bb4774774177","kind":"paragraph","order":60,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIBは基板内へ埋め込まれているため、従来構造では電源配線がEMIBを迂回しなければならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1b155862-1950-43f3-9566-4b2867586396","kind":"paragraph","order":61,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI ASIC\n            ↑\n      Power routing\n       ↗          ↖","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_063669d4-0c82-4d67-a346-4f389bfb2342","kind":"paragraph","order":62,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"┌──────────┐\n     │   EMIB   │\n     └──────────┘","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c0750c62-94d2-42fe-97c9-aa2480fbb081","kind":"paragraph","order":63,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIアクセラレータが数百W程度だった時代なら許容できた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6fde6c20-5e4d-4332-9f04-8d6348d74671","kind":"paragraph","order":64,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし今後1kW級、さらにそれ以上へ電力が増えると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f41c910-1921-46ea-adff-4559030700b5","kind":"paragraph","order":65,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"配線抵抗","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_239ec896-4f43-46ad-b425-6c052fc66f07","kind":"paragraph","order":66,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"IR Drop","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_808a9a3e-2ece-47f1-b135-aa9937193fe1","kind":"paragraph","order":67,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"インダクタンス","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6abc8337-bede-4e83-9aa3-4731c75cb02d","kind":"paragraph","order":68,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"電圧droop","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c0efda5-8051-4fa3-94d9-be8e04ef2975","kind":"paragraph","order":69,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"transient response","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a94fe3f5-9035-4e1d-81c7-798e6c1ea3ab","kind":"paragraph","order":70,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"が問題になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_13a9feb9-44c6-4a92-a675-301a86f00613","kind":"paragraph","order":71,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこでIntelが追加したのがTSV（Through-Silicon Via）である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b3767f82-9876-4518-b372-e3fe282c8820","kind":"paragraph","order":72,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-Tでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_70724ff9-5b53-470a-a825-2b9ae1edf3a2","kind":"paragraph","order":73,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"ASIC\n             ↑\n          Power\n             ↑\n            TSV\n             ↑\n      ┌───────────┐\n      │  EMIB-T   │\n      └───────────┘\n             ↑\n        Substrate","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6d2e109a-33ab-4e76-9763-e47313440df8","kind":"paragraph","order":74,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"と、シリコンブリッジを垂直に貫通して電力を供給できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d6f7da7a-1b92-4c59-b36b-26acb19f78a9","kind":"paragraph","order":75,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"IntelはEMIB-Tについて、TSVを使って基板から上のダイへ直接給電することで電源経路を短縮し、さらに銅製のpower/ground meshや高密度capacitorを組み合わせて電源ノイズを抑える構造として説明している。(Intel)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_28f9fffb-eb58-41e6-b5fc-6bcd5c3aac79","kind":"paragraph","order":76,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりEMIB-Tは単なる高速信号用の橋ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8dc775c-113b-4e97-9508-b8040ca68699","kind":"paragraph","order":77,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"信号＋電力を同時に扱う「パッケージ内インフラ」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6d7914ee-e78f-45b4-8a44-5329d93a8370","kind":"paragraph","order":78,"section_id":"sec_d7dd6e47-41f5-470c-a211-bfe623e66a13","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ進化している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2d1edd7f-7e3a-4d1c-9590-55c54ac32e14","kind":"heading","order":79,"section_id":"sec_0899853e-7e80-4d17-b576-142e51d1772a","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜TSV電力供給とEMIB-T・EMIB-M","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c6e1966-00c3-49c0-a0d9-5d26fbbee491","kind":"figure","order":80,"section_id":"sec_0899853e-7e80-4d17-b576-142e51d1772a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![TSV電力供給とEMIB-T・EMIB-M 01](/media/1e1fb2813978392b97909af15f3ac188e3e9960c529d4497cd8e5abcbdfec01c-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7a6c72fe-4e7f-4a5e-b796-01f6cf1a05fe","kind":"figure","order":81,"section_id":"sec_0899853e-7e80-4d17-b576-142e51d1772a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![TSV電力供給とEMIB-T・EMIB-M 02](/media/7094f2eeef7e1f450acb16a75da93636611335760d15c685e0ed54baedf5e16b-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_96c620d4-3b5f-4717-b6b6-152768085397","kind":"figure","order":82,"section_id":"sec_0899853e-7e80-4d17-b576-142e51d1772a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![TSV電力供給とEMIB-T・EMIB-M 03](/media/b11b11680bc31c7915258f20b3509c823808e5733d0500292532a09d4645f893-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e9d1a83f-18d3-45f4-ae44-5d427ab1bba0","kind":"figure","order":83,"section_id":"sec_0899853e-7e80-4d17-b576-142e51d1772a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![TSV電力供給とEMIB-T・EMIB-M 04](/media/e47937f9ddb7ba8740bd7444b4f47a374a216bda1be0899a452376d2589cebd2-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c983a54-f454-4dba-bf5b-1221b33b4997","kind":"figure","order":84,"section_id":"sec_0899853e-7e80-4d17-b576-142e51d1772a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![TSV電力供給とEMIB-T・EMIB-M 05](/media/75a2ae2279174f41a3d1f92f877e6a31ab1a5cc919af1388f5076f800cdad0d6-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dac5031a-59fe-459b-8080-aacddeb27a42","kind":"figure","order":85,"section_id":"sec_0899853e-7e80-4d17-b576-142e51d1772a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![TSV電力供給とEMIB-T・EMIB-M 06](/media/314bddcb4e9ce08362435f1cfb65392384edf73b83a5db4cc834b086790a37b9-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d5d1b4c-2519-4e4a-b219-9a5c0b8d9661","kind":"heading","order":86,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第4章　2026年時点でEMIB-Tはどこまで来たのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_957c2bfc-fb37-4fbc-a175-2bd171afc4c0","kind":"paragraph","order":87,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"IntelがECTC 2026で公表したEMIB-Tの仕様はかなり攻めている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e477f3b-37de-4471-b8a4-8023cdc0c952","kind":"paragraph","order":88,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在実証されている主な値は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_441fafc1-f539-4fd5-8f30-d73992214fde","kind":"paragraph","order":89,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"First Layer Interconnect bump pitch：25µm","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f96565a4-8026-4af1-965a-df88f11cd2e3","kind":"paragraph","order":90,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"パッケージサイズ：最大120×120mm","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a51f3145-68b9-4b16-9f83-05bba19b4fa8","kind":"paragraph","order":91,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコン搭載量：9レチクル超","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_82969f03-641f-4401-89ee-81b4493f7e61","kind":"paragraph","order":92,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM4e：12Gb/s","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41602837-c395-4f6a-b98f-0aded3b0aa08","kind":"paragraph","order":93,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"UCIe：64Gb/s","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_11a92f6f-fc79-412d-9073-3819652761d9","kind":"paragraph","order":94,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。(Newsroom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cde77444-b916-4f28-8037-16c772d9bc33","kind":"paragraph","order":95,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらにIntelのロードマップでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c747e140-0f2c-425a-9118-fd610ea9e3b5","kind":"paragraph","order":96,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年：8レチクル超、約6,800mm²","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b2ce91a2-dd30-4def-8504-91bc69e0b5bc","kind":"paragraph","order":97,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"2028年：12レチクル超、約10,000mm²","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1117797f-509d-4f60-916e-1eebc1ba2d61","kind":"paragraph","order":98,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ拡張し、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5430ed3-64a0-40cd-ad51-2e3d0733a496","kind":"paragraph","order":99,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"16基以上のHBM4/HBM5と30個以上のEMIB-T Bridge","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_685a16c2-00e5-429c-8598-1cdc2394fa04","kind":"paragraph","order":100,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"を一つのパッケージへ載せる構想を示している。(Intel Community)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7370fef1-a159-4bf3-9cdc-579632239737","kind":"paragraph","order":101,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"これはもはや「一個のチップ」ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ccf5af7-2de3-4a9b-9af9-da1c23b53cb6","kind":"paragraph","order":102,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM HBM HBM HBM\n │   │   │   │\n B   B   B   B","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_62af9731-03f4-472c-b6cb-940cf46b03c8","kind":"paragraph","order":103,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Compute ─ B ─ Compute\n   │             │\n   B             B\n   │             │\nCompute ─ B ─ Compute","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73065d30-4d73-421c-b31e-960483870107","kind":"paragraph","order":104,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"│ │ │ │ │ │\nHBM HBM HBM HBM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_657ec256-4345-41e9-94d5-01f17dd5b630","kind":"paragraph","order":105,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"B＝EMIB-T Bridge","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_22a786e4-de11-41a1-9cd4-608fba148d0f","kind":"paragraph","order":106,"section_id":"sec_62f1641e-8093-4ad4-bd21-3ada37b6a90e","character_id":null,"markdown":"という、パッケージの中に小さなコンピュータシステムそのものを作る世界である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad044342-d9db-486d-b8a9-dfe73a472510","kind":"heading","order":107,"section_id":"sec_eea78e6e-6aa5-4a20-9114-a518c296303b","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜EMIB-Tの到達点と大型化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_75dfe37e-282b-4eb3-a102-5c3f71adedd6","kind":"figure","order":108,"section_id":"sec_eea78e6e-6aa5-4a20-9114-a518c296303b","character_id":null,"markdown":"![EMIB-Tの到達点と大型化 01](/media/9b089f19fdb2d9a86528eeedc9755b60d169cb64e2efe10266651a59addf833f-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3001456e-10c3-4cca-87ce-c7376808a96d","kind":"figure","order":109,"section_id":"sec_eea78e6e-6aa5-4a20-9114-a518c296303b","character_id":null,"markdown":"![EMIB-Tの到達点と大型化 02](/media/f2e0f4a768e550da890c1ce9fa43e425742e5a73ab7b6f5e3552794c93f846d2-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e2d4e0fe-edb1-4129-b618-be9265c7f2e9","kind":"heading","order":110,"section_id":"sec_48b69c1f-4c21-4d62-bbd1-64526839c539","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第5章　CoWoSとの違い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_001b02d1-cedf-4f2b-ad5c-45cc81cf46f0","kind":"paragraph","order":111,"section_id":"sec_48b69c1f-4c21-4d62-bbd1-64526839c539","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここでは一つ重要な注意が必要だ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_05ab45d6-99bb-4746-af4e-9a0774f63153","kind":"paragraph","order":112,"section_id":"sec_48b69c1f-4c21-4d62-bbd1-64526839c539","character_id":null,"markdown":"「CoWoS＝巨大シリコンインターポーザ」と説明されることが多いが、現在ではこれは半分しか正しくない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c90698b4-0977-41e9-a30e-7d2efe721c2c","kind":"paragraph","order":113,"section_id":"sec_48b69c1f-4c21-4d62-bbd1-64526839c539","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMCには複数のCoWoS方式がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93e0eb9d-3067-469f-9612-0953281366b2","kind":"table","order":114,"section_id":"sec_48b69c1f-4c21-4d62-bbd1-64526839c539","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 方式 | 主な中間配線 |\n| --- | --- |\n| CoWoS-S | 全面 Silicon Interposer |\n| CoWoS-R | RDL Interposer |\n| CoWoS-L | Mold/RDL Interposer ＋ Local Silicon Interconnect |\n| Intel EMIB-T | Organic Substrate ＋ Embedded Silicon Bridge |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_110110ef-8bef-4a9c-a36a-060243eee699","kind":"paragraph","order":115,"section_id":"sec_48b69c1f-4c21-4d62-bbd1-64526839c539","character_id":null,"markdown":"CoWoS-Sは典型的な、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9c328e6e-cd6d-4aa0-a231-5a7b0f2426d8","kind":"paragraph","order":116,"section_id":"sec_48b69c1f-4c21-4d62-bbd1-64526839c539","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM     GPU     HBM\n │       │       │\n ▼       ▼       ▼\n┌─────────────────┐\n│ Silicon          │\n│ Interposer       │\n└─────────────────┘\n        │\n   ABF substrate","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c42d0440-ef4f-4cc7-a16d-fac28dddc74b","kind":"paragraph","order":117,"section_id":"sec_48b69c1f-4c21-4d62-bbd1-64526839c539","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0cba5651-ec32-423f-8e86-d2c920ad42d1","kind":"paragraph","order":118,"section_id":"sec_48b69c1f-4c21-4d62-bbd1-64526839c539","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方EMIB-Tは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c6693a8-ac63-4f6f-b2ed-57f10b28f05c","kind":"paragraph","order":119,"section_id":"sec_48b69c1f-4c21-4d62-bbd1-64526839c539","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM          GPU\n │            │\n └── EMIB-T ──┘","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_adfa202f-8ca4-4ccb-8fd7-fdb069d0be86","kind":"paragraph","order":120,"section_id":"sec_48b69c1f-4c21-4d62-bbd1-64526839c539","character_id":null,"markdown":"════════════════\n ABF substrate\n════════════════","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c601d6ed-008d-49e6-9fb7-13e7a4646b92","kind":"paragraph","order":121,"section_id":"sec_48b69c1f-4c21-4d62-bbd1-64526839c539","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9101023c-d323-4332-838c-0293bff7d5ed","kind":"paragraph","order":122,"section_id":"sec_48b69c1f-4c21-4d62-bbd1-64526839c539","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしTSMCのCoWoS-Lはすでに、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5fc042f7-811c-4860-8024-189db611a5ed","kind":"paragraph","order":123,"section_id":"sec_48b69c1f-4c21-4d62-bbd1-64526839c539","character_id":null,"markdown":"Chip\n ↓\nRDL / Mold Interposer\n ↓\nLocal Silicon Interconnect\n ↓\nSubstrate","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a923475d-e566-4689-9871-89b49dbdccda","kind":"paragraph","order":124,"section_id":"sec_48b69c1f-4c21-4d62-bbd1-64526839c539","character_id":null,"markdown":"という局所シリコン接続を利用している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d72a8104-f2c4-4aca-b889-be960c2a780f","kind":"paragraph","order":125,"section_id":"sec_48b69c1f-4c21-4d62-bbd1-64526839c539","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMCによればCoWoS-LではRDLベースのinterposerへLSI（Local Silicon Interconnect）を埋め込み、SoC-to-SoC、SoC-to-chiplet、SoC-to-HBMなどを高密度接続できる。3.5倍レチクルのCoWoS-Lは2024年から量産済みである。(3DFabric)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_980d5aee-09c9-4cf3-a5f2-9a8c9102ffdf","kind":"paragraph","order":126,"section_id":"sec_48b69c1f-4c21-4d62-bbd1-64526839c539","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、現在の本当の競争は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_769661a4-1d01-43a5-aa5f-30d4c41df365","kind":"paragraph","order":127,"section_id":"sec_48b69c1f-4c21-4d62-bbd1-64526839c539","character_id":null,"markdown":"「EMIB-T vs 巨大Si Interposer」だけではなく、「EMIB-T vs CoWoS-L」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8513a150-5f36-49f8-8a65-c03c0c180752","kind":"paragraph","order":128,"section_id":"sec_48b69c1f-4c21-4d62-bbd1-64526839c539","character_id":null,"markdown":"でもある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ddbf51c-e37b-4361-869f-ce1a400c6b2d","kind":"heading","order":129,"section_id":"sec_5e2cac46-0d52-4df3-bb2e-9be813cfbd90","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜CoWoSと局所ブリッジ方式の比較","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9fe5b398-a7e3-4c33-86f8-1aa5a7d515d4","kind":"figure","order":130,"section_id":"sec_5e2cac46-0d52-4df3-bb2e-9be813cfbd90","character_id":null,"markdown":"![CoWoSと局所ブリッジ方式の比較 01](/media/3bb7d1c87861a096b4e0d52f0265741e231269f63986c475efd1f24ea688d008-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_08ba2bd1-34ac-4647-a393-6c7b53235229","kind":"figure","order":131,"section_id":"sec_5e2cac46-0d52-4df3-bb2e-9be813cfbd90","character_id":null,"markdown":"![CoWoSと局所ブリッジ方式の比較 02](/media/414adf1525ceb5a36f1832faf3bb60aad724c96959ba7d7f13bb97da324ebf04-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8955261-c504-47c9-b05e-1ef6ebbb906e","kind":"figure","order":132,"section_id":"sec_5e2cac46-0d52-4df3-bb2e-9be813cfbd90","character_id":null,"markdown":"![CoWoSと局所ブリッジ方式の比較 03](/media/122d3687d66dd00ef45f9d37e6d755469abcfedbe393b3d2c007ce9ff58670d5-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2fc16530-4238-4c78-8564-4f7d39b3e9c6","kind":"figure","order":133,"section_id":"sec_5e2cac46-0d52-4df3-bb2e-9be813cfbd90","character_id":null,"markdown":"![CoWoSと局所ブリッジ方式の比較 04](/media/8029d590c5ee64cd5d1a6d4dca8ffd6c0e77009c9a47416ed26bb6841e43400a-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6c0d0fc8-20b1-46a0-975d-8aa3d95cd997","kind":"figure","order":134,"section_id":"sec_5e2cac46-0d52-4df3-bb2e-9be813cfbd90","character_id":null,"markdown":"![CoWoSと局所ブリッジ方式の比較 05](/media/70c61328c2b4cdcf79ace3368c50201095f563193746615f4dfc6869a667f7cb-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c1c7d40e-b4e1-4c9a-bd30-30f06140f5ea","kind":"figure","order":135,"section_id":"sec_5e2cac46-0d52-4df3-bb2e-9be813cfbd90","character_id":null,"markdown":"![CoWoSと局所ブリッジ方式の比較 06](/media/3d43eb6d462c28966925c808312b3c99e14b83885ae0396feb0f2b34b2f7b4aa-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_da198e37-9638-426a-9e49-8ede309b5ad2","kind":"figure","order":136,"section_id":"sec_5e2cac46-0d52-4df3-bb2e-9be813cfbd90","character_id":null,"markdown":"![CoWoSと局所ブリッジ方式の比較 07](/media/5b326eabdb9559b5cba5877f0701ad7129e49a680be61a43fb436b28dc99571e-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_be2410a1-48f8-4bce-9a3f-993eef1e5022","kind":"heading","order":137,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第6章　それでもEMIB-Tが安くなりやすい理由","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c8416e2-fcf5-49dc-a88a-88870e1a51b5","kind":"paragraph","order":138,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"基本原理は単純である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b36e0c44-dce2-460c-a4d0-cf2a18f9cd4d","kind":"paragraph","order":139,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンは高価だ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d16eb3a7-795e-4228-ae95-88403fb8d1fe","kind":"paragraph","order":140,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかも巨大なSilicon Interposerを作るには、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bfc6ff8b-ad49-4a80-82a7-ab159146e670","kind":"paragraph","order":141,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"lithography","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ed088a1-e022-4907-9735-78e32a57aded","kind":"paragraph","order":142,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSV","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e3c8533b-19aa-4ff4-9c48-2db48f9c1aff","kind":"paragraph","order":143,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"RDL","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b56584cf-501f-415f-9c01-935c6c25ad28","kind":"paragraph","order":144,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"CMP","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f274595b-0fcc-4855-9a47-8dcdb9c0cee3","kind":"paragraph","order":145,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"wafer processing","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_69060730-22c7-484e-839e-2c5674ebe7dd","kind":"paragraph","order":146,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"reticle stitching","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f142c2a7-fc83-4239-b210-ac870d33d76b","kind":"paragraph","order":147,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"inspection","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d2b4dbe6-c6e2-4854-bf22-a656055c134c","kind":"paragraph","order":148,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"など大量の工程が必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0512a7f4-640e-4081-90e4-e8d4a1798f22","kind":"paragraph","order":149,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIBでは、高密度配線が必要な場所にしかシリコンを使わない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d4b5cea-98a5-490f-a232-b4589cbf1d06","kind":"paragraph","order":150,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intel自身もEMIB-Tについて、巨大で製造コストの高いinterposerを使わず、必要な箇所だけ高密度Silicon Bridgeを置くことをコスト面の主要な利点としている。(Intel Community)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_22bac78a-e238-433a-bfad-c56c27215c56","kind":"paragraph","order":151,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在サプライチェーンでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d3f29a6f-27a5-4141-bf11-d1fc71113d8a","kind":"paragraph","order":152,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-TがCoWoSより40〜50%程度安くなる可能性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ce1da4d-217c-4cd1-a1bc-db527f4b1544","kind":"paragraph","order":153,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"が取り沙汰されている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb7abb7a-6885-44a0-bf98-6715df9edb5d","kind":"paragraph","order":154,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、この数字には注意が必要だ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_169b1da5-1b62-437c-88f6-d21a4e9f0eda","kind":"paragraph","order":155,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"IntelもTSMCも「すべての製品で50%差になる」と公式発表しているわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_011cd6e7-a07a-47a6-9e95-458ed2725f78","kind":"paragraph","order":156,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"また、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7caebeff-529d-46dd-9d57-11ba3eed1006","kind":"paragraph","order":157,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"CoWoS-S","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_231d0773-a200-4581-893d-2b6641e6ca7b","kind":"paragraph","order":158,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"CoWoS-L","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_75cfe181-08d6-4356-b5c0-95689b7b302f","kind":"paragraph","order":159,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"パッケージサイズ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21a69a2e-e2be-43ee-a4e7-025b4cff3977","kind":"paragraph","order":160,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM数","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b9de0c2-5831-43e7-b557-91862be68744","kind":"paragraph","order":161,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Bridge数","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e80dcc1e-5f7f-44d8-9fb0-4396bf31e6b4","kind":"paragraph","order":162,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"yield","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_86f5494d-0646-4dbf-9574-6c7af0679259","kind":"paragraph","order":163,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"によって価格差は変わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef67ec5d-3991-4790-8bdf-9249f91835c0","kind":"paragraph","order":164,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"別の2026年の分析では、Rubin級を想定したCoWoSのパッケージングコストが約900〜1,000ドルに対し、EMIB系では数百ドル台になる可能性があるとの推計も出ているが、これも同一仕様を完全に比較した公式BOMではない。(Tom's Hardware)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0ac90d24-cfb7-4cf4-b379-b989dd036b44","kind":"paragraph","order":165,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって40〜50%という値は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ceda82e-dcd0-4eb7-be9f-355a8d82a507","kind":"paragraph","order":166,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"「十分あり得るが、製品依存のサプライチェーン推定」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fcf8d66d-2705-4f5c-a87d-3ed17d9427a9","kind":"paragraph","order":167,"section_id":"sec_bee515d4-a195-42ab-9c8f-01411192366a","character_id":null,"markdown":"として扱うべきだろう。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_950b94f7-9be2-4d44-9c5c-792d633a6270","kind":"heading","order":168,"section_id":"sec_1ef63b6a-7ae8-4dd8-8d10-59951fdd1ed0","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜局所シリコンとABF基板のコスト構造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e7aa2f4-220e-4212-a7f3-d35b8fa7f743","kind":"figure","order":169,"section_id":"sec_1ef63b6a-7ae8-4dd8-8d10-59951fdd1ed0","character_id":null,"markdown":"![局所シリコンとABF基板のコスト構造 01](/media/78834a685fbe0ede1c320b268c74479fd49588e4433b6f062a9fa1ef6a2d86a6-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fc8a9434-ef1d-4dd5-8de5-439d2d43c8f9","kind":"figure","order":170,"section_id":"sec_1ef63b6a-7ae8-4dd8-8d10-59951fdd1ed0","character_id":null,"markdown":"![局所シリコンとABF基板のコスト構造 02](/media/5a55cb4e22a64cf52034de04aa9d1793cb03d6b3adc031c7033903ce9fef9277-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d279459a-3548-42a7-8533-17cba2938cd7","kind":"figure","order":171,"section_id":"sec_1ef63b6a-7ae8-4dd8-8d10-59951fdd1ed0","character_id":null,"markdown":"![局所シリコンとABF基板のコスト構造 03](/media/0803dcd6ea355bf7544d61c3a21d7bebd670a636110326ca64c11188a642fad8-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cabf3bf0-7183-4377-b4ff-792a6b72c712","kind":"figure","order":172,"section_id":"sec_1ef63b6a-7ae8-4dd8-8d10-59951fdd1ed0","character_id":null,"markdown":"![局所シリコンとABF基板のコスト構造 04](/media/399b68092cd867fbe475b9bd2209d99a71099a61cccea0b59d55c2ae9cefab25-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e64bed36-73cc-4241-ae2f-8a060fecd7cc","kind":"figure","order":173,"section_id":"sec_1ef63b6a-7ae8-4dd8-8d10-59951fdd1ed0","character_id":null,"markdown":"![局所シリコンとABF基板のコスト構造 05](/media/7591df7a26864ede8a3ab8037dce3694a7ad254eeb87eaef8247dd0db50adaae-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e7b1738-7d81-4013-b079-3d180dbeb431","kind":"figure","order":174,"section_id":"sec_1ef63b6a-7ae8-4dd8-8d10-59951fdd1ed0","character_id":null,"markdown":"![局所シリコンとABF基板のコスト構造 06](/media/17510fb6c2464a1b02f0eea3f77ce57cfbe186a653588773c80fea04a7b789c6-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_458ff721-4f6d-46e4-a300-75535ff139e9","kind":"figure","order":175,"section_id":"sec_1ef63b6a-7ae8-4dd8-8d10-59951fdd1ed0","character_id":null,"markdown":"![局所シリコンとABF基板のコスト構造 07](/media/e38e269e2546c572dbd64ada81f41f4a9173c1283327d9607e9997996acb8da7-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d003be8-fbf1-4ab1-95d8-cf63705e09b9","kind":"heading","order":176,"section_id":"sec_32777b73-01b1-4a05-85c5-261e6189bd6b","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第7章　EMIB-T最大の問題――実はSilicon Bridgeではない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_961043f8-81c9-42da-b130-50f7adeea64e","kind":"paragraph","order":177,"section_id":"sec_32777b73-01b1-4a05-85c5-261e6189bd6b","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここが最も重要である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_053c8470-87f0-4708-811f-1fa806a6c178","kind":"paragraph","order":178,"section_id":"sec_32777b73-01b1-4a05-85c5-261e6189bd6b","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-Tの技術的な難所は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3af1daa7-3587-48d0-83c6-dd1b69e5d663","kind":"paragraph","order":179,"section_id":"sec_32777b73-01b1-4a05-85c5-261e6189bd6b","character_id":null,"markdown":"Silicon Bridgeそのものを製造することから、巨大なパッケージ基板へBridgeを正確に埋め込み、それを量産することへ移っている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_102a6033-d888-4b1b-b696-9ea52cbe0432","kind":"paragraph","order":180,"section_id":"sec_32777b73-01b1-4a05-85c5-261e6189bd6b","character_id":null,"markdown":"特に重要なのが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_301422cc-a125-478e-9fb8-90089e0f9b20","kind":"paragraph","order":181,"section_id":"sec_32777b73-01b1-4a05-85c5-261e6189bd6b","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大ABF substrate","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_36364bbf-2b89-453a-919f-7edd84185d70","kind":"paragraph","order":182,"section_id":"sec_32777b73-01b1-4a05-85c5-261e6189bd6b","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b43d1f8d-5711-4823-aabe-9ca2ea9ea4b5","kind":"paragraph","order":183,"section_id":"sec_32777b73-01b1-4a05-85c5-261e6189bd6b","character_id":null,"markdown":"120×120mm級へ巨大化すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3cc645f1-939f-46ef-ba1b-bd18c63826a7","kind":"paragraph","order":184,"section_id":"sec_32777b73-01b1-4a05-85c5-261e6189bd6b","character_id":null,"markdown":"ABF build-up","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8d57113-0c72-4c06-9fc0-6bc727671266","kind":"paragraph","order":185,"section_id":"sec_32777b73-01b1-4a05-85c5-261e6189bd6b","character_id":null,"markdown":"Cu配線","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6e4c304b-8798-4ae9-b9cf-ddb948ddea00","kind":"paragraph","order":186,"section_id":"sec_32777b73-01b1-4a05-85c5-261e6189bd6b","character_id":null,"markdown":"via","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e11ad3db-869f-4cea-a6c7-85b4d767c54d","kind":"paragraph","order":187,"section_id":"sec_32777b73-01b1-4a05-85c5-261e6189bd6b","character_id":null,"markdown":"cavity","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ae29503-c7be-4eb4-b2ee-b53e32813dd2","kind":"paragraph","order":188,"section_id":"sec_32777b73-01b1-4a05-85c5-261e6189bd6b","character_id":null,"markdown":"bridge embedding","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_03d60e36-53a2-45dc-98c1-52bd86a7de71","kind":"paragraph","order":189,"section_id":"sec_32777b73-01b1-4a05-85c5-261e6189bd6b","character_id":null,"markdown":"surface flatness","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e57d8e3-40d6-4b42-85fa-e236b7443558","kind":"paragraph","order":190,"section_id":"sec_32777b73-01b1-4a05-85c5-261e6189bd6b","character_id":null,"markdown":"warpage","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5fd36532-a85e-47c0-ad08-98f1d6a5e670","kind":"paragraph","order":191,"section_id":"sec_32777b73-01b1-4a05-85c5-261e6189bd6b","character_id":null,"markdown":"のどれか一つでも外れれば不良になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6e644f91-f163-4800-b4be-1fd39490c5c1","kind":"paragraph","order":192,"section_id":"sec_32777b73-01b1-4a05-85c5-261e6189bd6b","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかもパッケージ面積が大きくなるほど、一枚の中に欠陥が入る確率も上昇する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d3831e46-f162-474e-a6c4-5fedb7818091","kind":"heading","order":193,"section_id":"sec_719ebfbf-5bde-4bd3-b6df-83bea6f539b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bff0a73f-fdc3-4fa6-babb-9e2391b4284d","kind":"figure","order":194,"section_id":"sec_719ebfbf-5bde-4bd3-b6df-83bea6f539b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"![巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり 01](/media/bdd00c3d8ebee9285c49466c2e52e862d65ede93cf3f70e059de85d69cc4be5e-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_761c6058-5c7d-4c40-aca3-a6ff3d7ceb80","kind":"figure","order":195,"section_id":"sec_719ebfbf-5bde-4bd3-b6df-83bea6f539b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"![巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり 02](/media/fd4f76d5344c32060eecc607843882d1abb0ab6a119e47ad6582df6be5ac62de-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_57cb71a6-4de9-431e-84db-6aa7637c565f","kind":"figure","order":196,"section_id":"sec_719ebfbf-5bde-4bd3-b6df-83bea6f539b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"![巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり 03](/media/c7ef3f7d682308b3f17af0fc0b85d32520fc17f14d73e781aecc4817681b61ff-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f31c0bb5-3a3d-48a0-a3d7-c4c55a9a958e","kind":"figure","order":197,"section_id":"sec_719ebfbf-5bde-4bd3-b6df-83bea6f539b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"![巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり 04](/media/59c2a2169e76e282dbfab43481ccd7910c2e52c87c3de2f9abfc8442d8cd9f5d-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f6c5e2ac-8062-4d85-8d96-d0d1148cbc85","kind":"figure","order":198,"section_id":"sec_719ebfbf-5bde-4bd3-b6df-83bea6f539b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"![巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり 05](/media/4a2ef14fa0bcc4f9ca5d64f2c25808e00936186b3146d4655426a4f1f4def7af-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_31157e11-9ea8-47c1-a4ac-156a1bb9e52f","kind":"figure","order":199,"section_id":"sec_719ebfbf-5bde-4bd3-b6df-83bea6f539b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"![巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり 06](/media/5d5aec689a9cb7468a00fe009e6748d0df42fa37edb8bd935e9c2180727f5a81-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ec29a05e-db14-4fb3-bfd8-fef496f09c3a","kind":"figure","order":200,"section_id":"sec_719ebfbf-5bde-4bd3-b6df-83bea6f539b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"![巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり 07](/media/f69657cfb5349515524cb28500e8c9cdec6a05f6b6e6aa7c2be27f4fff8cd4f6-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1b3abdeb-58bf-42f2-956c-410a2e10a819","kind":"figure","order":201,"section_id":"sec_719ebfbf-5bde-4bd3-b6df-83bea6f539b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"![巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり 08](/media/57e243b21e59ff9ae0d7ce4c90b4a28f1dce92d3c579467f8d486e0e348b6363-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_052478d2-8d9b-4049-9f41-0b4d26f3e3c6","kind":"figure","order":202,"section_id":"sec_719ebfbf-5bde-4bd3-b6df-83bea6f539b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"![巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり 09](/media/e8dee40e1dec292fef0dce8df1a90dcc08cd09051a0e34cb0086b5a66fda8f72-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e75ef822-a534-4a4d-8dd8-67b391813149","kind":"figure","order":203,"section_id":"sec_719ebfbf-5bde-4bd3-b6df-83bea6f539b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"![巨大ABF基板・埋め込み・歩留まり 10](/media/720d31c758193542ad28a7cc79ee2f86a9ec4449a4eb36523abbab89c0006ce1-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_510a7693-c9d5-4e4a-b87d-9c2e0ee1502f","kind":"heading","order":204,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第8章　最大の敵「Warpage」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ccfc91f6-5a39-4430-b84f-9d7d16a976d2","kind":"paragraph","order":205,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンと有機基板では熱膨張率が異なる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0d242007-e80d-4c7f-8b9c-9338290134d8","kind":"paragraph","order":206,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"シリコンは比較的伸びにくい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d364dd1-9780-4188-a358-840721761985","kind":"paragraph","order":207,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"有機樹脂は大きく伸びる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c4c22637-0fa1-4292-ac7b-15fbe3e97785","kind":"paragraph","order":208,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのためリフローなどの温度変化を受けると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6e0382b6-9847-49a5-adf3-1c46f3320e95","kind":"paragraph","order":209,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"理想","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9be8c1ad-754d-4d4a-a92a-90380416bac2","kind":"paragraph","order":210,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"────────────","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9126600e-81b0-4199-841b-f965c856c641","kind":"paragraph","order":211,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a1946f49-5e76-4f13-a908-7f20f8951f28","kind":"paragraph","order":212,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"╰──────────╯","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7372b15d-d138-417b-9dda-ea464aec88d1","kind":"paragraph","order":213,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"のように基板が反る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e03d7ff-640a-4501-a2a2-a477982e0130","kind":"paragraph","order":214,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"これがWarpageである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_239d1877-9ae8-45fe-bdb2-d591b376e03f","kind":"paragraph","order":215,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Warpage自体が問題なのではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1bd9da23-d430-4d9c-a330-674022ae0b14","kind":"paragraph","order":216,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"その結果、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fba9b01a-e33a-4c1b-a582-2eb92ea966c7","kind":"paragraph","order":217,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"bump open","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ebbda273-20fd-4376-be1e-e0819060f258","kind":"paragraph","order":218,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"solder bridging","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_04000b12-8263-47e6-a61a-34b3d24d7a47","kind":"paragraph","order":219,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"contact resistance増加","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_760fd98d-8182-46fd-b23e-932fd39d5b97","kind":"paragraph","order":220,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"bridge crack","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c11f5240-d0c3-47ed-9a70-3cd58b89c9fd","kind":"paragraph","order":221,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"pad damage","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_55b77659-4a8c-4fbf-ad7e-54a73cb84220","kind":"paragraph","order":222,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"underfill異常","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c3b04c7-1539-470a-9cbf-0d4930ce18ab","kind":"paragraph","order":223,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"などが発生する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_840e6dc1-6efd-44e2-9ce5-e99270adb5ca","kind":"paragraph","order":224,"section_id":"sec_65ca0023-b333-4a65-ad76-8175ef83af1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"25µm級bump pitchになれば、高さ誤差に対する許容度はさらに小さくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d812f5da-f55a-4ab9-ada8-a0e72f02407b","kind":"heading","order":225,"section_id":"sec_ef71c328-f06e-4aae-a040-05fdfb461d24","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Warpageと接合信頼性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_613dcc7b-2d38-43df-93ed-250fc0487dbc","kind":"figure","order":226,"section_id":"sec_ef71c328-f06e-4aae-a040-05fdfb461d24","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Warpageと接合信頼性 01](/media/52831eb497d8e22e9d793932e29d9b1e0eb9d03e63b8f07d899090f46b1eba44-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5608188c-000b-4f5e-b46d-8a11316ba84f","kind":"figure","order":227,"section_id":"sec_ef71c328-f06e-4aae-a040-05fdfb461d24","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Warpageと接合信頼性 02](/media/e94485d4b727ad109ca085e3e5f83a9fce976aee482018313bd18d200c7804d8-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_635042e4-4a7c-44d7-9834-191c551e24a2","kind":"heading","order":228,"section_id":"sec_12d4cdff-4f3e-4e61-a0cb-7bbe533e8a97","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第9章　Bridge埋め込み精度","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b2553a28-742d-4ccd-a1e9-ed7408399ff5","kind":"paragraph","order":229,"section_id":"sec_12d4cdff-4f3e-4e61-a0cb-7bbe533e8a97","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIBではABF基板内部へcavityを作り、そこへSilicon Bridgeを埋め込む。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93d7b030-c4bf-4180-bda2-2c266b10d74e","kind":"paragraph","order":230,"section_id":"sec_12d4cdff-4f3e-4e61-a0cb-7bbe533e8a97","character_id":null,"markdown":"ABF substrate","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e31da2b-c30c-4627-9d12-e142b12bdace","kind":"paragraph","order":231,"section_id":"sec_12d4cdff-4f3e-4e61-a0cb-7bbe533e8a97","character_id":null,"markdown":"═══════╗      ╔═══════\n       ║ EMIB ║\n═══════╝      ╚═══════","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_29ebdefc-35f5-4f1a-aa6e-6fc1da4effa3","kind":"paragraph","order":232,"section_id":"sec_12d4cdff-4f3e-4e61-a0cb-7bbe533e8a97","character_id":null,"markdown":"BridgeにはXY方向だけでなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1bab0385-46c2-4459-976e-470e03d51950","kind":"paragraph","order":233,"section_id":"sec_12d4cdff-4f3e-4e61-a0cb-7bbe533e8a97","character_id":null,"markdown":"Z方向＝高さ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ea8f6a1d-c925-43d2-be41-267bf0b79ac0","kind":"paragraph","order":234,"section_id":"sec_12d4cdff-4f3e-4e61-a0cb-7bbe533e8a97","character_id":null,"markdown":"の精度も必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ecf6ed8-f00b-4117-bdec-853b6375b6bd","kind":"paragraph","order":235,"section_id":"sec_12d4cdff-4f3e-4e61-a0cb-7bbe533e8a97","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えばBridgeが数µm高すぎても低すぎても、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d05a9aef-ea13-46dc-9964-586f2dddae58","kind":"paragraph","order":236,"section_id":"sec_12d4cdff-4f3e-4e61-a0cb-7bbe533e8a97","character_id":null,"markdown":"その上に載るCompute DieやHBMのmicro-bump接続が均一にならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6d62350b-bc12-42fc-9cdb-e9708f0683c9","kind":"paragraph","order":237,"section_id":"sec_12d4cdff-4f3e-4e61-a0cb-7bbe533e8a97","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_347a7bf0-05f6-4524-afc5-f8f86df43a86","kind":"paragraph","order":238,"section_id":"sec_12d4cdff-4f3e-4e61-a0cb-7bbe533e8a97","character_id":null,"markdown":"微細配線を作る能力と、Bridgeを巨大基板へ機械的に配置する能力は別問題","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_00913817-888b-4951-8b88-eb57bb4bb270","kind":"paragraph","order":239,"section_id":"sec_12d4cdff-4f3e-4e61-a0cb-7bbe533e8a97","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7db704c0-ca41-4c49-a3bf-cfbcf5fd16d2","kind":"paragraph","order":240,"section_id":"sec_12d4cdff-4f3e-4e61-a0cb-7bbe533e8a97","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-Tが巨大化すると、Bridge数自体も30個以上へ増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_54198228-e8d1-463c-9439-1759340908b8","kind":"paragraph","order":241,"section_id":"sec_12d4cdff-4f3e-4e61-a0cb-7bbe533e8a97","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのすべてについて、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_61e7d8bd-358f-4267-ac75-ea4f494eea68","kind":"paragraph","order":242,"section_id":"sec_12d4cdff-4f3e-4e61-a0cb-7bbe533e8a97","character_id":null,"markdown":"XY alignment","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_36f28099-1474-4107-9d72-5263bcef3bce","kind":"paragraph","order":243,"section_id":"sec_12d4cdff-4f3e-4e61-a0cb-7bbe533e8a97","character_id":null,"markdown":"Z-height","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_77ab0845-48e6-482b-9811-f87697431553","kind":"paragraph","order":244,"section_id":"sec_12d4cdff-4f3e-4e61-a0cb-7bbe533e8a97","character_id":null,"markdown":"tilt","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dc13dab0-370c-4dfb-88b1-1e1e4e9d1489","kind":"paragraph","order":245,"section_id":"sec_12d4cdff-4f3e-4e61-a0cb-7bbe533e8a97","character_id":null,"markdown":"planarity","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b8a3f44f-880b-41f7-9216-42fda063ab2a","kind":"paragraph","order":246,"section_id":"sec_12d4cdff-4f3e-4e61-a0cb-7bbe533e8a97","character_id":null,"markdown":"を管理する必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c2e53207-d5bb-4b9b-a4bd-93486ad5a0e8","kind":"heading","order":247,"section_id":"sec_1013e550-7891-4da1-bc50-e82337a68f98","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Bridgeの配置・高さ・傾き","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c78b1b2d-e551-42ca-8bec-207e21612903","kind":"figure","order":248,"section_id":"sec_1013e550-7891-4da1-bc50-e82337a68f98","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Bridgeの配置・高さ・傾き 01](/media/d1285bbd6bc9471df9a34972a06068318d01ee2da34270eaeeea0462e321dc68-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_52d0c80e-d039-482f-9544-8732285eb81b","kind":"figure","order":249,"section_id":"sec_1013e550-7891-4da1-bc50-e82337a68f98","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Bridgeの配置・高さ・傾き 02](/media/d92946224759a869ba469f5609d143b57c9cc843e3db32f3d9c2fb8b49ff2dfd-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b30754aa-3b82-41d1-8656-52b46bfa8a7a","kind":"heading","order":250,"section_id":"sec_9f6783c3-d15d-4d6e-bde7-ea5e24e1d136","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第10章　25µm bump pitch","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2fd9a960-178c-48a7-be1d-0ce4d0cf114d","kind":"paragraph","order":251,"section_id":"sec_9f6783c3-d15d-4d6e-bde7-ea5e24e1d136","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intelは2026年に25µm FLIを実証している。(Newsroom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c15117bb-76b0-4d4d-81f9-7535c6042d32","kind":"paragraph","order":252,"section_id":"sec_9f6783c3-d15d-4d6e-bde7-ea5e24e1d136","character_id":null,"markdown":"Pitchを小さくすれば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eb5582ec-f62b-482c-b00d-16659a7ad5aa","kind":"paragraph","order":253,"section_id":"sec_9f6783c3-d15d-4d6e-bde7-ea5e24e1d136","character_id":null,"markdown":"45µm","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4db7ffec-c48a-44d7-9a8e-c6f8f173207a","kind":"paragraph","order":254,"section_id":"sec_9f6783c3-d15d-4d6e-bde7-ea5e24e1d136","character_id":null,"markdown":"●       ●       ●","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a2b35554-6e04-48a1-b3b3-c22f2eed7c01","kind":"paragraph","order":255,"section_id":"sec_9f6783c3-d15d-4d6e-bde7-ea5e24e1d136","character_id":null,"markdown":"25µm","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_59e4fd4f-253d-463c-bcc3-26f6050d7f3e","kind":"paragraph","order":256,"section_id":"sec_9f6783c3-d15d-4d6e-bde7-ea5e24e1d136","character_id":null,"markdown":"●   ●   ●   ●   ●","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aa335c0d-d8b2-4722-aac2-d9d2d73dfab1","kind":"paragraph","order":257,"section_id":"sec_9f6783c3-d15d-4d6e-bde7-ea5e24e1d136","character_id":null,"markdown":"のように接点密度を増やせる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9bc1b21-4756-40a7-9bff-9d4b5200d6f4","kind":"paragraph","order":258,"section_id":"sec_9f6783c3-d15d-4d6e-bde7-ea5e24e1d136","character_id":null,"markdown":"結果としてHBMやUCIeの帯域を増やせる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc55d22c-450f-4eee-901a-fa43360e1b19","kind":"paragraph","order":259,"section_id":"sec_9f6783c3-d15d-4d6e-bde7-ea5e24e1d136","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0102fbbf-83a2-446f-a2a4-1cb0c709698a","kind":"paragraph","order":260,"section_id":"sec_9f6783c3-d15d-4d6e-bde7-ea5e24e1d136","character_id":null,"markdown":"solder 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× Bridge高さ × Die高さ × bump高さ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3dd7db75-c055-473f-b875-2483cff924a2","kind":"paragraph","order":272,"section_id":"sec_9f6783c3-d15d-4d6e-bde7-ea5e24e1d136","character_id":null,"markdown":"を同時に合わせる必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_64e2db0a-cd25-400c-b490-6ad86fbc70ed","kind":"heading","order":273,"section_id":"sec_c2b99e10-8677-4932-b339-2059daf27327","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜25µm接続と巨大基板","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2bd7651c-2486-416c-a405-65e6e620e949","kind":"figure","order":274,"section_id":"sec_c2b99e10-8677-4932-b339-2059daf27327","character_id":null,"markdown":"![25µm接続と巨大基板 01](/media/b3a1db0bf45ca09ecc7f95257a1da2f1c47445e39bbfd54cb4c40308b3f8795f-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_22df4e9c-70c2-4500-8c14-3b612c7c56f6","kind":"figure","order":275,"section_id":"sec_c2b99e10-8677-4932-b339-2059daf27327","character_id":null,"markdown":"![25µm接続と巨大基板 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variation","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0a412f1a-394b-4933-bc86-a2b597dabb9d","kind":"paragraph","order":292,"section_id":"sec_1b6e3686-44f7-40e4-9cd7-4b43c0333bf3","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd011d89-214f-4ae6-a144-33c39544514f","kind":"paragraph","order":293,"section_id":"sec_1b6e3686-44f7-40e4-9cd7-4b43c0333bf3","character_id":null,"markdown":"そしてEMIB-TではTSVが電源経路なので、単なる信号不良では済まない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5092471d-3951-4eb8-a08f-1bdbe8fcdce4","kind":"paragraph","order":294,"section_id":"sec_1b6e3686-44f7-40e4-9cd7-4b43c0333bf3","character_id":null,"markdown":"抵抗が増えれば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2fc98da9-6f8e-4d34-a088-3cc376705263","kind":"paragraph","order":295,"section_id":"sec_1b6e3686-44f7-40e4-9cd7-4b43c0333bf3","character_id":null,"markdown":"R ↑\n↓\nIR Drop ↑\n↓\nCore Voltage ↓\n↓\nFrequency / Reliability ↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_594d4218-3046-48e7-9c24-c23fc7ecd8dc","kind":"paragraph","order":296,"section_id":"sec_1b6e3686-44f7-40e4-9cd7-4b43c0333bf3","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc8a6700-f1c7-4df5-be3f-6ae5b24605ef","kind":"paragraph","order":297,"section_id":"sec_1b6e3686-44f7-40e4-9cd7-4b43c0333bf3","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-TではTSVの歩留まりとPower Integrityが一体化する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2cb982b1-bfdb-4c39-b76b-fe6d7a9e59a2","kind":"heading","order":298,"section_id":"sec_1d822a7f-ab41-498f-8f44-a68c0f90ea44","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜TSV工程とPower Integrity","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_315a056d-48a9-4e47-9e6a-49e79316ab59","kind":"figure","order":299,"section_id":"sec_1d822a7f-ab41-498f-8f44-a68c0f90ea44","character_id":null,"markdown":"![TSV工程とPower Integrity 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第12章　Bridgeが増えるほど歩留まりは難しくなる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73a16c07-280c-4fc7-8f4c-98448e1e5571","kind":"paragraph","order":302,"section_id":"sec_2b9fa127-62c1-478a-8b21-70635843a2b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここでは単純化した例を考えてみよう。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_61ccb4f1-7f0b-41db-acc9-e520ebd7ee99","kind":"paragraph","order":303,"section_id":"sec_2b9fa127-62c1-478a-8b21-70635843a2b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"仮にBridge一個の実装成功率が99%だったとする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a18d236b-109c-43f5-8e02-5cc2f448bb03","kind":"paragraph","order":304,"section_id":"sec_2b9fa127-62c1-478a-8b21-70635843a2b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"30個必要なら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93428a85-1613-4d36-aa89-a5dc0b7d0474","kind":"paragraph","order":305,"section_id":"sec_2b9fa127-62c1-478a-8b21-70635843a2b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"0.99^30 ≒ 74%","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43268726-8de9-4f64-a44d-2f5725e10338","kind":"paragraph","order":306,"section_id":"sec_2b9fa127-62c1-478a-8b21-70635843a2b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6eda809c-d938-4b37-9008-e5d5c9b8dddd","kind":"paragraph","order":307,"section_id":"sec_2b9fa127-62c1-478a-8b21-70635843a2b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"98%なら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b219f60b-ffb7-4514-be21-7b817e60ebf9","kind":"paragraph","order":308,"section_id":"sec_2b9fa127-62c1-478a-8b21-70635843a2b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"0.98^30 ≒ 55%","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6a1dc12d-78a7-4154-84d0-e9995f3551f5","kind":"paragraph","order":309,"section_id":"sec_2b9fa127-62c1-478a-8b21-70635843a2b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9f88a035-0254-4af2-86a7-a48065265877","kind":"paragraph","order":310,"section_id":"sec_2b9fa127-62c1-478a-8b21-70635843a2b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"もちろん実際の製造不良は完全な独立事象ではなく、この単純な掛け算が実際の歩留まりを表すわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0fed5d54-d1d0-414f-bd87-c9171b664cba","kind":"paragraph","order":311,"section_id":"sec_2b9fa127-62c1-478a-8b21-70635843a2b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし重要なのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7621e51d-7881-4d10-96e3-218248041444","kind":"paragraph","order":312,"section_id":"sec_2b9fa127-62c1-478a-8b21-70635843a2b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"構成部品が増えるほど、何か一つが失敗して巨大パッケージ全体を失う確率が増える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c870419-4959-4b92-a8be-3576d739c07d","kind":"paragraph","order":313,"section_id":"sec_2b9fa127-62c1-478a-8b21-70635843a2b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af2e2cdf-f837-4142-8b1a-3e01e5ca9b67","kind":"paragraph","order":314,"section_id":"sec_2b9fa127-62c1-478a-8b21-70635843a2b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかも最終工程まで進んだAIパッケージには、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c1656c6-c80e-4d63-9ac5-f588741af305","kind":"paragraph","order":315,"section_id":"sec_2b9fa127-62c1-478a-8b21-70635843a2b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"数千～数万ドル級Compute Die","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_40e103ff-5e30-4507-9e64-ef743b71e855","kind":"paragraph","order":316,"section_id":"sec_2b9fa127-62c1-478a-8b21-70635843a2b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d2133b35-1a8f-4959-81a7-cf48e3aa1ce1","kind":"paragraph","order":317,"section_id":"sec_2b9fa127-62c1-478a-8b21-70635843a2b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"Bridge","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8b7629fa-5150-4306-aba9-74cd7877cd68","kind":"paragraph","order":318,"section_id":"sec_2b9fa127-62c1-478a-8b21-70635843a2b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"ABF substrate","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_966203ce-1359-4a84-ad33-9cd5b644716d","kind":"paragraph","order":319,"section_id":"sec_2b9fa127-62c1-478a-8b21-70635843a2b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"がすでに載っている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4cdadea3-bff6-4a31-bf1a-89050ea44857","kind":"paragraph","order":320,"section_id":"sec_2b9fa127-62c1-478a-8b21-70635843a2b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"最終テストで不良を発見していては経済性が崩れる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5085e653-241f-4aab-af47-7c48004f4497","kind":"heading","order":321,"section_id":"sec_8ff1298c-8ced-448e-a487-de5a226120d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Bridge数と最終テスト歩留まり","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73d29253-0e5a-44b4-81c7-6eccdbb39876","kind":"figure","order":322,"section_id":"sec_8ff1298c-8ced-448e-a487-de5a226120d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Bridge数と最終テスト歩留まり 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Dieだけでは足りない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8b4ddba-48e0-4e04-bd2c-d8e7cc89ea54","kind":"paragraph","order":325,"section_id":"sec_a8dda45d-17c4-4544-bea0-56ffba0b817b","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのためEMIB-Tでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e740dfd2-6757-4a85-893d-2825de9fb6a0","kind":"paragraph","order":326,"section_id":"sec_a8dda45d-17c4-4544-bea0-56ffba0b817b","character_id":null,"markdown":"Compute Die\n↓\nKnown Good Die","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e4f9d6cc-8c6d-42ef-92f7-b287dc0b368b","kind":"paragraph","order":327,"section_id":"sec_a8dda45d-17c4-4544-bea0-56ffba0b817b","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM\n↓\nKnown Good Stack","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc136f7c-9366-4059-8ee2-db66e7a040e3","kind":"paragraph","order":328,"section_id":"sec_a8dda45d-17c4-4544-bea0-56ffba0b817b","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-T substrate\n↓\nKnown Good Substrate","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ce7a691-c9b9-40af-9f98-efb3183cf761","kind":"paragraph","order":329,"section_id":"sec_a8dda45d-17c4-4544-bea0-56ffba0b817b","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intermediate Assembly\n↓\nTest","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cca2838b-a1d4-491c-bd7f-b93363ffaafd","kind":"paragraph","order":330,"section_id":"sec_a8dda45d-17c4-4544-bea0-56ffba0b817b","character_id":null,"markdown":"Final Assembly\n↓\nTest","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e02929f-78b9-4c10-8e9b-0694297149b0","kind":"paragraph","order":331,"section_id":"sec_a8dda45d-17c4-4544-bea0-56ffba0b817b","character_id":null,"markdown":"という段階的な検査が非常に重要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_58bd7151-05e6-4b62-86b0-6280dcd210d0","kind":"paragraph","order":332,"section_id":"sec_a8dda45d-17c4-4544-bea0-56ffba0b817b","character_id":null,"markdown":"今後重要になる概念は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88c804ff-0cee-4986-9d25-7a3d2db7482d","kind":"paragraph","order":333,"section_id":"sec_a8dda45d-17c4-4544-bea0-56ffba0b817b","character_id":null,"markdown":"Known Good 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DieやHBMを載せる前に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f5ec12e9-a86b-4ebc-b250-fe603020d037","kind":"paragraph","order":336,"section_id":"sec_a8dda45d-17c4-4544-bea0-56ffba0b817b","character_id":null,"markdown":"ABF配線","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c9b307b-f886-43b1-ac6b-1dd9fec2b59d","kind":"paragraph","order":337,"section_id":"sec_a8dda45d-17c4-4544-bea0-56ffba0b817b","character_id":null,"markdown":"Bridge","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_87d59d29-9422-40f8-af02-4f81bb542853","kind":"paragraph","order":338,"section_id":"sec_a8dda45d-17c4-4544-bea0-56ffba0b817b","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSV","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dfa135a6-9df4-44f1-bce5-b3009e6ad2d7","kind":"paragraph","order":339,"section_id":"sec_a8dda45d-17c4-4544-bea0-56ffba0b817b","character_id":null,"markdown":"microvia","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c75c1f38-ef18-450b-bc53-e36c1d280f35","kind":"paragraph","order":340,"section_id":"sec_a8dda45d-17c4-4544-bea0-56ffba0b817b","character_id":null,"markdown":"open/short","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8d692a2-f4f2-4cda-858b-9dda046e2a0d","kind":"paragraph","order":341,"section_id":"sec_a8dda45d-17c4-4544-bea0-56ffba0b817b","character_id":null,"markdown":"をできる限り検出しなければならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_95f6b9aa-de81-4d20-9b68-f3dc0bf4e465","kind":"paragraph","order":342,"section_id":"sec_a8dda45d-17c4-4544-bea0-56ffba0b817b","character_id":null,"markdown":"先端パッケージでは「テスト」が最後の品質確認ではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1bf2126d-b03a-45a8-953e-624ced10f08d","kind":"paragraph","order":343,"section_id":"sec_a8dda45d-17c4-4544-bea0-56ffba0b817b","character_id":null,"markdown":"高価な半導体を不良基板へ載せないための経済性そのもの","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9a096102-e813-4886-9341-2e371d03d483","kind":"paragraph","order":344,"section_id":"sec_a8dda45d-17c4-4544-bea0-56ffba0b817b","character_id":null,"markdown":"になっていく。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8b902e25-7719-4ac5-8759-3cb1114b2f7d","kind":"heading","order":345,"section_id":"sec_4d139453-4cc5-45cd-9e6a-7ed5c7fe973c","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Known Good Substrate","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5dce3d0a-d218-4936-99e4-0b8a61f512ac","kind":"figure","order":346,"section_id":"sec_4d139453-4cc5-45cd-9e6a-7ed5c7fe973c","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Known Good Substrate 01](/media/6ab37c90d8de61ae2772cf040718dca6327479fa803ec04dbf1e4fa1e67f947e-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_223356a3-1d72-4088-a1b6-a2e71f8ba0d3","kind":"heading","order":347,"section_id":"sec_7198c5ea-b7b3-46de-80da-d599d3951934","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第14章　EMIB-T基板歩留まり50%問題","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bcc29a19-f37c-4d2d-b4db-d1e4f73a2b28","kind":"paragraph","order":348,"section_id":"sec_7198c5ea-b7b3-46de-80da-d599d3951934","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のサプライチェーン情報では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_323a5d18-0f4a-41e7-bb5e-814f36402b8d","kind":"paragraph","order":349,"section_id":"sec_7198c5ea-b7b3-46de-80da-d599d3951934","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-T対応substrateの初期歩留まりが50〜60%程度","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b33f325e-f0df-470d-99c5-86530cc59edf","kind":"paragraph","order":350,"section_id":"sec_7198c5ea-b7b3-46de-80da-d599d3951934","character_id":null,"markdown":"との観測が出ている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_723ecafc-b0d9-4c18-86d2-60baf0380061","kind":"paragraph","order":351,"section_id":"sec_7198c5ea-b7b3-46de-80da-d599d3951934","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここは数字を慎重に扱う必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5a62184a-72e8-4e29-a7d6-13f85494c30b","kind":"paragraph","order":352,"section_id":"sec_7198c5ea-b7b3-46de-80da-d599d3951934","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intelは具体的なsubstrate yieldを公開していない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd8d9249-5fc3-44e5-8f1d-146d5a7f85e9","kind":"paragraph","order":353,"section_id":"sec_7198c5ea-b7b3-46de-80da-d599d3951934","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intelが2026年7月に公式に述べているのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd47bad6-db72-443e-86ad-b6526a6a060b","kind":"paragraph","order":354,"section_id":"sec_7198c5ea-b7b3-46de-80da-d599d3951934","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-T全体のyieldとreliabilityが目標に達しつつある","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7d882dd-f76e-4be1-bd17-7a451cff0d4d","kind":"paragraph","order":355,"section_id":"sec_7198c5ea-b7b3-46de-80da-d599d3951934","character_id":null,"markdown":"というところまでである。(MarketBeat)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6d6c991f-f5f7-46e7-812b-cc68de13f11e","kind":"paragraph","order":356,"section_id":"sec_7198c5ea-b7b3-46de-80da-d599d3951934","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方、公開されているbroker情報の集計では60%程度のsubstrate-level yieldとの観測があり、別のサプライチェーン情報では初期50%前後が示されている。(404K Semi-Ai)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_462d4908-48f7-4510-8aab-dc1f90a87046","kind":"paragraph","order":357,"section_id":"sec_7198c5ea-b7b3-46de-80da-d599d3951934","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_369294e7-9fb8-4d4d-9a00-ae10f6871cad","kind":"paragraph","order":358,"section_id":"sec_7198c5ea-b7b3-46de-80da-d599d3951934","character_id":null,"markdown":"「EMIB-Tそのものが50%しか取れない」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ce5793b-e91e-42c9-9c82-5c9870a78eac","kind":"paragraph","order":359,"section_id":"sec_7198c5ea-b7b3-46de-80da-d599d3951934","character_id":null,"markdown":"という理解は間違いである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d66134d6-3913-4af4-9348-43637a0bad65","kind":"paragraph","order":360,"section_id":"sec_7198c5ea-b7b3-46de-80da-d599d3951934","character_id":null,"markdown":"問題になっているのは主に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aa713f9a-3c52-4cbd-9da0-0dfdf87b851c","kind":"paragraph","order":361,"section_id":"sec_7198c5ea-b7b3-46de-80da-d599d3951934","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大なEMIB-T対応package substrate側","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d63a01b3-ba0c-49b3-907b-5e5e6d7ea696","kind":"paragraph","order":362,"section_id":"sec_7198c5ea-b7b3-46de-80da-d599d3951934","character_id":null,"markdown":"と考えるべきだ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6a0f63d-43f6-445d-8dcb-96729891ffae","kind":"heading","order":363,"section_id":"sec_01438e5a-a4d8-421b-901f-83926149497d","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜基板歩留まり50〜60%問題","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b59473e-f578-414c-9117-200f6a4aabad","kind":"figure","order":364,"section_id":"sec_01438e5a-a4d8-421b-901f-83926149497d","character_id":null,"markdown":"![基板歩留まり50〜60%問題 01](/media/c3cc4b391cf066c083d90c7039989fc8712294387b01796564faa7ea607633d1-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_057797c5-0eda-4f14-b790-72849b917c90","kind":"heading","order":365,"section_id":"sec_89db79dd-d0b9-4246-8ceb-201bbd7e928e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第15章　歩留まり50%が意味すること","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4873ea22-39a6-4af9-9308-2147a34c8955","kind":"paragraph","order":366,"section_id":"sec_89db79dd-d0b9-4246-8ceb-201bbd7e928e","character_id":null,"markdown":"仮に良品substrateを100枚必要とすると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_383d8224-a947-42cc-b27f-672ae3201629","kind":"table","order":367,"section_id":"sec_89db79dd-d0b9-4246-8ceb-201bbd7e928e","character_id":null,"markdown":"| Yield | 必要投入枚数 |\n| --- | --- |\n| 50% | 200 |\n| 60% | 167 |\n| 70% | 143 |\n| 80% | 125 |\n| 90% | 111 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3d633b25-3205-41be-96d9-f5c92be80973","kind":"paragraph","order":368,"section_id":"sec_89db79dd-d0b9-4246-8ceb-201bbd7e928e","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73e38732-0591-458c-bbd2-5a92b067aa93","kind":"paragraph","order":369,"section_id":"sec_89db79dd-d0b9-4246-8ceb-201bbd7e928e","character_id":null,"markdown":"50%から80%へ改善するだけで、同じ100枚を出荷するための投入量は200から125へ減る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8df6e35d-a18c-4966-8454-9eb0da909643","kind":"paragraph","order":370,"section_id":"sec_89db79dd-d0b9-4246-8ceb-201bbd7e928e","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7139adfb-a330-4f22-890d-483839bba3dd","kind":"paragraph","order":371,"section_id":"sec_89db79dd-d0b9-4246-8ceb-201bbd7e928e","character_id":null,"markdown":"設備稼働率","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0d0cf8e9-9f68-45df-92fc-3c5042d00208","kind":"paragraph","order":372,"section_id":"sec_89db79dd-d0b9-4246-8ceb-201bbd7e928e","character_id":null,"markdown":"材料費","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_de50bbe4-6ca5-4358-bfaa-aab6948045b1","kind":"paragraph","order":373,"section_id":"sec_89db79dd-d0b9-4246-8ceb-201bbd7e928e","character_id":null,"markdown":"基板ASP","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9a68bec3-415c-4cf5-8c43-f71db2001564","kind":"paragraph","order":374,"section_id":"sec_89db79dd-d0b9-4246-8ceb-201bbd7e928e","character_id":null,"markdown":"粗利益率","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1cace494-5c7d-4d07-a5aa-df040d88427b","kind":"paragraph","order":375,"section_id":"sec_89db79dd-d0b9-4246-8ceb-201bbd7e928e","character_id":null,"markdown":"顧客への供給能力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bbc3907a-7235-477c-95c3-4e0d69dabeea","kind":"paragraph","order":376,"section_id":"sec_89db79dd-d0b9-4246-8ceb-201bbd7e928e","character_id":null,"markdown":"すべてに直結する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d33d6ab-6132-4569-b07a-5af13d8371cc","kind":"paragraph","order":377,"section_id":"sec_89db79dd-d0b9-4246-8ceb-201bbd7e928e","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって今後EMIB-Tを見る場合、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f45ce4b-aef5-48f9-8ccb-61d2653ad180","kind":"paragraph","order":378,"section_id":"sec_89db79dd-d0b9-4246-8ceb-201bbd7e928e","character_id":null,"markdown":"IntelのBridge yieldより、Ibiden・Shinko・Unimicron等のsubstrate yieldの方が重要になる可能性すらある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d5e600a-fabe-4065-a785-5dbfea22b617","kind":"heading","order":379,"section_id":"sec_e34a6dbb-d83f-44e5-be3c-18aa276bf4dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜歩留まりと必要投入量","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d3d06470-51b3-49f1-b4d5-87e4738b78fa","kind":"figure","order":380,"section_id":"sec_e34a6dbb-d83f-44e5-be3c-18aa276bf4dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"![歩留まりと必要投入量 01](/media/2eb156f3aea86f2814a0cf1c4a58683771bb26e4d44a1071612bc3bbaaab54ff-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ab4e2322-f30f-45cb-8c75-9bb239381fff","kind":"heading","order":381,"section_id":"sec_c0b44f9e-5eaf-48b6-a2f3-191f283f009a","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第16章　基板メーカーが重要になる理由","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f3900e2-5505-49bf-87a3-797706ac54a4","kind":"paragraph","order":382,"section_id":"sec_c0b44f9e-5eaf-48b6-a2f3-191f283f009a","character_id":null,"markdown":"IntelのEMIB substrate ecosystemには、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_09ac2623-f912-47e5-bf57-c7e4fb08d2de","kind":"paragraph","order":383,"section_id":"sec_c0b44f9e-5eaf-48b6-a2f3-191f283f009a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Ibiden","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5dc5e8e-4fe0-4e58-9260-890daa904fc1","kind":"paragraph","order":384,"section_id":"sec_c0b44f9e-5eaf-48b6-a2f3-191f283f009a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Shinko Electric Industries","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6bc4c737-9788-4407-bada-e8227a4f3485","kind":"paragraph","order":385,"section_id":"sec_c0b44f9e-5eaf-48b6-a2f3-191f283f009a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Unimicron","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6e07edf4-befd-4e20-b71a-ae1568112a20","kind":"paragraph","order":386,"section_id":"sec_c0b44f9e-5eaf-48b6-a2f3-191f283f009a","character_id":null,"markdown":"AT&S","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_160cfb28-deb8-4243-b382-b510011152a3","kind":"paragraph","order":387,"section_id":"sec_c0b44f9e-5eaf-48b6-a2f3-191f283f009a","character_id":null,"markdown":"などが含まれている。TrendForceもIntelの主要EMIB substrate partnerとしてこれらを挙げている。(TrendForce)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_39672dc6-cff2-4091-aea3-ba8d4aa8c3a7","kind":"paragraph","order":388,"section_id":"sec_c0b44f9e-5eaf-48b6-a2f3-191f283f009a","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のEMIB-T立ち上げで特に名前が挙がるのが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_393a773a-0580-4961-bef5-fdf281d82734","kind":"paragraph","order":389,"section_id":"sec_c0b44f9e-5eaf-48b6-a2f3-191f283f009a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Unimicron、Ibiden、Shinko","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a0b2cb15-5a82-40de-967e-0e9f9f46198c","kind":"paragraph","order":390,"section_id":"sec_c0b44f9e-5eaf-48b6-a2f3-191f283f009a","character_id":null,"markdown":"の3社である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_32b9d5f2-8720-41c5-8010-1bbc323c3e78","kind":"paragraph","order":391,"section_id":"sec_c0b44f9e-5eaf-48b6-a2f3-191f283f009a","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただしIntelのより広いEMIB supply chainにはAT&Sなども含まれるため、「EMIB-T基板は世界でこの3社しか作れない」と理解するのは適切ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_951fbc8e-a7aa-49c1-a0fd-83bfc8495879","kind":"paragraph","order":392,"section_id":"sec_c0b44f9e-5eaf-48b6-a2f3-191f283f009a","character_id":null,"markdown":"重要なのは、顧客側が供給源を一社に集中させず、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_544e7ec1-1271-40ce-9382-3c64010db720","kind":"paragraph","order":393,"section_id":"sec_c0b44f9e-5eaf-48b6-a2f3-191f283f009a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Customer\n           │\n      capacity allocation\n           │\n ┌─────────┼─────────┐\n ↓         ↓         ↓\nIbiden   Shinko   Unimicron","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d88faf8-1602-49f8-8775-4b8b81664686","kind":"paragraph","order":394,"section_id":"sec_c0b44f9e-5eaf-48b6-a2f3-191f283f009a","character_id":null,"markdown":"と複数社を並行して立ち上げている点である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f03e3add-fd85-42a9-a4bc-22acda203ca4","kind":"heading","order":395,"section_id":"sec_aa2e1ea4-b6a8-4239-8ec9-329f1ff31675","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜基板メーカーと能力配分","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6af2259d-6499-47de-a6b8-43f0b72e9642","kind":"figure","order":396,"section_id":"sec_aa2e1ea4-b6a8-4239-8ec9-329f1ff31675","character_id":null,"markdown":"![基板メーカーと能力配分 01](/media/baae3ef7bda189968fbeac70532678e32586030d49f86f30c8e37415b743cb5d-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c6f134c7-4f9d-445f-8389-cc0b491943e4","kind":"heading","order":397,"section_id":"sec_3fcbe2a9-37a1-4a95-8ce1-3fb8602dfa73","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第17章　UnimicronのCAPEXが示すもの","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7782b5c8-3be6-4149-b48c-3d5ad4a1b22b","kind":"paragraph","order":398,"section_id":"sec_3fcbe2a9-37a1-4a95-8ce1-3fb8602dfa73","character_id":null,"markdown":"Unimicronは2026年の設備投資をNT$34 billionまで拡大し、その大部分をABF substrate能力の拡張・高度化へ振り向けている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ceb55015-7b54-4442-90dc-a487d9afff46","kind":"paragraph","order":399,"section_id":"sec_3fcbe2a9-37a1-4a95-8ce1-3fb8602dfa73","character_id":null,"markdown":"同社はCoWoS capacity不足を背景に、EMIB-Tを顧客へ提供する第二のadvanced packaging routeとして評価しており、EMIB-T対応の設備投資も進めている。(TechNews 科技新報)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_74ada5bb-63bc-4e7d-b153-d803d0c4055b","kind":"paragraph","order":400,"section_id":"sec_3fcbe2a9-37a1-4a95-8ce1-3fb8602dfa73","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらにUnimicronは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4e98a082-a8d4-43ef-bb3c-b29810147b9b","kind":"paragraph","order":401,"section_id":"sec_3fcbe2a9-37a1-4a95-8ce1-3fb8602dfa73","character_id":null,"markdown":"高級T-glass","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ca8a53cd-00d7-4d5f-be9b-7286cb1c53af","kind":"paragraph","order":402,"section_id":"sec_3fcbe2a9-37a1-4a95-8ce1-3fb8602dfa73","character_id":null,"markdown":"CCL","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_642b83c8-8885-4b46-ba3d-df3482e65105","kind":"paragraph","order":403,"section_id":"sec_3fcbe2a9-37a1-4a95-8ce1-3fb8602dfa73","character_id":null,"markdown":"銅","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd1c59fc-06c3-4ff8-a323-4db9be7a53f0","kind":"paragraph","order":404,"section_id":"sec_3fcbe2a9-37a1-4a95-8ce1-3fb8602dfa73","character_id":null,"markdown":"その他材料","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3a2052b5-e5d4-4a01-8011-b9e567fc8e68","kind":"paragraph","order":405,"section_id":"sec_3fcbe2a9-37a1-4a95-8ce1-3fb8602dfa73","character_id":null,"markdown":"の供給制約も指摘している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e1e5f7f-9045-463f-b8d1-1b21192493a8","kind":"paragraph","order":406,"section_id":"sec_3fcbe2a9-37a1-4a95-8ce1-3fb8602dfa73","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりEMIB-Tが成功しても、次のボトルネックが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2e1e1430-0d17-4f47-a2e0-b80fab5b7cd5","kind":"paragraph","order":407,"section_id":"sec_3fcbe2a9-37a1-4a95-8ce1-3fb8602dfa73","character_id":null,"markdown":"ABF → T-glass → CCL → substrate capacity","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_842f6844-109a-4e6c-a153-a73f81f820f2","kind":"paragraph","order":408,"section_id":"sec_3fcbe2a9-37a1-4a95-8ce1-3fb8602dfa73","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ移る可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ec70ac2c-b83e-4a00-a644-2ad6d214e715","kind":"heading","order":409,"section_id":"sec_0ca04c9a-8af9-4b68-bb66-3342e69df0ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Unimicronの設備投資","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_62cbdd9f-a22a-4766-8278-184cc35dfe23","kind":"figure","order":410,"section_id":"sec_0ca04c9a-8af9-4b68-bb66-3342e69df0ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Unimicronの設備投資 01](/media/8f660c5ac00a6b87d6c5b8422cdef55efa5422815c23f6e69521c3eaf59c3c07-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7de23e6a-b6e3-46ae-afe3-c210ddf838c7","kind":"heading","order":411,"section_id":"sec_aa3141d3-1cbd-45ec-8686-fb5b200ebdc4","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第18章　「顧客前払い」が非常に重要","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc1bf604-ad47-4787-86a2-5dfa9cb6cb04","kind":"paragraph","order":412,"section_id":"sec_aa3141d3-1cbd-45ec-8686-fb5b200ebdc4","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intel側はsubstrate capacity確保のため、一部顧客へ前払い・capacity commitmentを求めている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_665156c8-e5c0-4a90-a2ee-564537a42e10","kind":"paragraph","order":413,"section_id":"sec_aa3141d3-1cbd-45ec-8686-fb5b200ebdc4","character_id":null,"markdown":"TrendForceによれば、台湾・日本のsubstrate supplierが増産へ顧客のcommitmentを求めており、Intelの顧客もそれに応じているとされる。(TrendForce)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a23b1e5e-afa2-418e-b9ff-7039ab879fce","kind":"paragraph","order":414,"section_id":"sec_aa3141d3-1cbd-45ec-8686-fb5b200ebdc4","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは非常に強い需要シグナルである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ed538130-174b-401a-b4a4-1aef116137e6","kind":"paragraph","order":415,"section_id":"sec_aa3141d3-1cbd-45ec-8686-fb5b200ebdc4","character_id":null,"markdown":"単なる、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_447187ce-418c-491f-9d5c-4d826cc9fbf3","kind":"paragraph","order":416,"section_id":"sec_aa3141d3-1cbd-45ec-8686-fb5b200ebdc4","character_id":null,"markdown":"「EMIB-Tに興味があります」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_df99585a-4012-4a57-b4fb-d96e3639369a","kind":"paragraph","order":417,"section_id":"sec_aa3141d3-1cbd-45ec-8686-fb5b200ebdc4","character_id":null,"markdown":"ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a387fb34-4ab0-44c6-82e8-347ca189e292","kind":"paragraph","order":418,"section_id":"sec_aa3141d3-1cbd-45ec-8686-fb5b200ebdc4","character_id":null,"markdown":"Customer\n↓\nPrepayment\n↓\nIntel\n↓\nSubstrate supplier\n↓\nEquipment\n↓\n2027–2029 Capacity","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3843626a-b09a-43d6-9e23-7b4cc58b16ba","kind":"paragraph","order":419,"section_id":"sec_aa3141d3-1cbd-45ec-8686-fb5b200ebdc4","character_id":null,"markdown":"というところまで来ている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_920d8b94-d4e0-4b6d-8f21-37a7707cb2eb","kind":"paragraph","order":420,"section_id":"sec_aa3141d3-1cbd-45ec-8686-fb5b200ebdc4","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり現在のEMIB-T市場では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b380da35-5ec3-4f52-97c5-c856f16781f4","kind":"paragraph","order":421,"section_id":"sec_aa3141d3-1cbd-45ec-8686-fb5b200ebdc4","character_id":null,"markdown":"製品を売る前に2027〜29年の製造能力そのものを予約している","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_be8e3644-ebff-4b7f-af74-075c0d4c77bc","kind":"paragraph","order":422,"section_id":"sec_aa3141d3-1cbd-45ec-8686-fb5b200ebdc4","character_id":null,"markdown":"状態が始まっている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_db258e08-3e5c-439c-8b29-98f352c1a531","kind":"heading","order":423,"section_id":"sec_dc4397ca-4034-45ff-b77c-5bfb53d60019","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜前払いと将来能力の予約","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1efb25e1-7034-4c56-a2b7-f7e4e8bfa6cc","kind":"figure","order":424,"section_id":"sec_dc4397ca-4034-45ff-b77c-5bfb53d60019","character_id":null,"markdown":"![前払いと将来能力の予約 01](/media/55e45d84c12780049b2356d92a5ebc3f2338836c0e2e2c7eb107e19c62ecdd88-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b3bc91f0-9439-4e55-b5eb-af3fffa43439","kind":"heading","order":425,"section_id":"sec_f93152e5-88d2-4fe4-8867-7ced8623025c","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第19章　EMIB-Tの量産状況","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b1ff9e92-0c52-40a6-9559-b076d5868d13","kind":"paragraph","order":426,"section_id":"sec_f93152e5-88d2-4fe4-8867-7ced8623025c","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年8月時点で、EMIB-Tはまだ外部顧客向けの本格HVMが大量に流れている段階ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_423aef0d-b72d-44bc-80bf-22e8513adaf9","kind":"paragraph","order":427,"section_id":"sec_f93152e5-88d2-4fe4-8867-7ced8623025c","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし研究試作でもない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_92c44d60-dfb3-4e22-81b9-a044e69c1a2c","kind":"paragraph","order":428,"section_id":"sec_f93152e5-88d2-4fe4-8867-7ced8623025c","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intelは2025年末時点では「2026年後半の顧客ランプ」を目指していたが、その後のQ2 2026説明では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b55b4adb-e5d0-48f7-8ab7-d6e4168568c8","kind":"paragraph","order":429,"section_id":"sec_f93152e5-88d2-4fe4-8867-7ced8623025c","character_id":null,"markdown":"2027年のcustomer rampを支えるためHVMへ引き上げている","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d8df452-7404-4cd3-ae58-1dc41b854e79","kind":"paragraph","order":430,"section_id":"sec_f93152e5-88d2-4fe4-8867-7ced8623025c","character_id":null,"markdown":"という表現になっている。(Intel Download Center)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_62288763-fef4-45cf-ac87-6903ccd5824f","kind":"paragraph","order":431,"section_id":"sec_f93152e5-88d2-4fe4-8867-7ced8623025c","character_id":null,"markdown":"整理すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c2c9fbe8-e5fb-479c-9921-18f9c86d7c98","kind":"paragraph","order":432,"section_id":"sec_f93152e5-88d2-4fe4-8867-7ced8623025c","character_id":null,"markdown":"2025\nTechnology development","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bfae75f6-ae0a-4943-b55a-bed9c8f4dbbb","kind":"paragraph","order":433,"section_id":"sec_f93152e5-88d2-4fe4-8867-7ced8623025c","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c02ff9d4-75ff-4141-b82f-c384d7acde77","kind":"paragraph","order":434,"section_id":"sec_f93152e5-88d2-4fe4-8867-7ced8623025c","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026 H1\nQualification\nCustomer evaluation\nSubstrate capacity preparation","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_246c34c0-9e15-41fe-a338-8dadb683d0bb","kind":"paragraph","order":435,"section_id":"sec_f93152e5-88d2-4fe4-8867-7ced8623025c","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ffea2f38-cf26-4b34-8c85-0956a61ca304","kind":"paragraph","order":436,"section_id":"sec_f93152e5-88d2-4fe4-8867-7ced8623025c","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026 H2\n← 現在","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_72afb13d-9ce4-4399-84ee-331ae0c786c4","kind":"paragraph","order":437,"section_id":"sec_f93152e5-88d2-4fe4-8867-7ced8623025c","character_id":null,"markdown":"Yield / reliability improvement\nEquipment installation\nCustomer qualification\nPre-production","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ff2be18-d113-4be9-8b12-1477fe6ef810","kind":"paragraph","order":438,"section_id":"sec_f93152e5-88d2-4fe4-8867-7ced8623025c","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0dc2e19a-def9-4941-af91-354d085963cc","kind":"paragraph","order":439,"section_id":"sec_f93152e5-88d2-4fe4-8867-7ced8623025c","character_id":null,"markdown":"2027\nCustomer ramp\nInitial HVM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84bc0a5c-653a-4c6a-ac0e-594c160c660f","kind":"paragraph","order":440,"section_id":"sec_f93152e5-88d2-4fe4-8867-7ced8623025c","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9650c5f7-877a-40cc-8231-c32d9f22e4d6","kind":"paragraph","order":441,"section_id":"sec_f93152e5-88d2-4fe4-8867-7ced8623025c","character_id":null,"markdown":"2028\nLarge-volume AI ASIC production","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0fea9a2d-d0cf-4909-bb30-4392d8bd86a9","kind":"paragraph","order":442,"section_id":"sec_f93152e5-88d2-4fe4-8867-7ced8623025c","character_id":null,"markdown":"という見方が最も妥当である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_48a9583d-f6f8-4945-9e9a-d0d1f5726df6","kind":"paragraph","order":443,"section_id":"sec_f93152e5-88d2-4fe4-8867-7ced8623025c","character_id":null,"markdown":"一部では2028年初頭へ本格量産時期が前倒しされたとのサプライチェーン情報もあるが、Intel公式の最新表現は「2027年の顧客ランプを支える」であり、正確な各顧客のHVM開始月は公開されていない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d468d5a-ade2-4c9d-b1fa-b19c085168a9","kind":"heading","order":444,"section_id":"sec_7a76779b-0710-46b7-9449-f68685328180","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜量産ロードマップと現在段階","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2fd5016b-d062-47be-8b41-8a1b925281ad","kind":"figure","order":445,"section_id":"sec_7a76779b-0710-46b7-9449-f68685328180","character_id":null,"markdown":"![量産ロードマップと現在段階 01](/media/83f34e6d1f15b713d0cdc4e0e6a02e3f33c6b4e1206a1b197f4d418ed2bd260a-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6264e63c-5334-4732-9ff6-6031fe8ec875","kind":"figure","order":446,"section_id":"sec_7a76779b-0710-46b7-9449-f68685328180","character_id":null,"markdown":"![量産ロードマップと現在段階 02](/media/b64386e9b8085bd18b162f3ce8975477f44b6feace657004efbbebbb2d20737a-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c5b0c40-2721-4b7c-83c9-03af9a0670d3","kind":"heading","order":447,"section_id":"sec_4af021aa-c35a-404d-b6e8-dbc3ba26f91f","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第20章　現在どれくらい注文があるのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9d50665b-9c35-42f2-81b5-38af37277397","kind":"paragraph","order":448,"section_id":"sec_4af021aa-c35a-404d-b6e8-dbc3ba26f91f","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intelは具体的なEMIB-T受注個数や金額を公表していない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9d040860-f90d-453b-97b4-9cf747f878d4","kind":"paragraph","order":449,"section_id":"sec_4af021aa-c35a-404d-b6e8-dbc3ba26f91f","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただしCEO Lip-Bu Tanは2026年Q2で、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ff1cd5c-e3c6-4ba3-a80a-273eae071c74","kind":"paragraph","order":450,"section_id":"sec_4af021aa-c35a-404d-b6e8-dbc3ba26f91f","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-T backlog continues to grow","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2a51b66a-d614-4ca4-b28f-5af44d0f168c","kind":"paragraph","order":451,"section_id":"sec_4af021aa-c35a-404d-b6e8-dbc3ba26f91f","character_id":null,"markdown":"と明言している。(MarketBeat)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_83b76e0b-77ef-4986-9c62-681b3e368d93","kind":"paragraph","order":452,"section_id":"sec_4af021aa-c35a-404d-b6e8-dbc3ba26f91f","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらにCFO David Zinsnerは2026年前半、advanced packagingについて、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0bb02ef0-a6e4-42bf-9876-c4fa3b484ae7","kind":"paragraph","order":453,"section_id":"sec_4af021aa-c35a-404d-b6e8-dbc3ba26f91f","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来想定していた数億ドル規模ではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3331d827-3486-4aaa-9b4b-5f92c2e0f52e","kind":"paragraph","order":454,"section_id":"sec_4af021aa-c35a-404d-b6e8-dbc3ba26f91f","character_id":null,"markdown":"年間数十億ドル規模の案件","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bdcd0ea8-75f2-4f63-948b-84e3f0a9f196","kind":"paragraph","order":455,"section_id":"sec_4af021aa-c35a-404d-b6e8-dbc3ba26f91f","character_id":null,"markdown":"が見え始めていると説明している。(Tom's Hardware)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_37a88073-ef0d-469e-9a71-3df58c3d2ca9","kind":"paragraph","order":456,"section_id":"sec_4af021aa-c35a-404d-b6e8-dbc3ba26f91f","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり現在は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eed7348d-9292-4f4e-b89f-a6e02d9ea363","kind":"paragraph","order":457,"section_id":"sec_4af021aa-c35a-404d-b6e8-dbc3ba26f91f","character_id":null,"markdown":"volume production前にbacklogが積み上がっている","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_28eb40b1-9853-407f-9296-7f7d81923258","kind":"paragraph","order":458,"section_id":"sec_4af021aa-c35a-404d-b6e8-dbc3ba26f91f","character_id":null,"markdown":"という珍しい状態である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_04e6a24c-135b-41b5-8ee4-e8aa6be7b782","kind":"heading","order":459,"section_id":"sec_cff9ccf7-9ecc-4c1d-83a4-7147ac3537b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜注文・バックログの読み方","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_595ee493-9124-452a-a64f-79bbbb3a1a8d","kind":"figure","order":460,"section_id":"sec_cff9ccf7-9ecc-4c1d-83a4-7147ac3537b4","character_id":null,"markdown":"![注文・バックログの読み方 01](/media/77234df6dbb90e1ed08dbc19f2ee806032b3325d14a11446ecc56dd6ce8cf65d-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_55920fbf-4c2b-40f0-9433-83715255d7b9","kind":"heading","order":461,"section_id":"sec_0e774861-a9c9-4104-ba4e-cadcf0c8508d","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第21章　Google――現在最も重要な外部顧客","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_89d790dc-bb38-48ef-8152-d63f6acb3c2b","kind":"paragraph","order":462,"section_id":"sec_0e774861-a9c9-4104-ba4e-cadcf0c8508d","character_id":null,"markdown":"最も具体的な案件はGoogleである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b52e30f3-d765-4361-8c20-c8c75973b583","kind":"paragraph","order":463,"section_id":"sec_0e774861-a9c9-4104-ba4e-cadcf0c8508d","character_id":null,"markdown":"The InformationおよびReutersによれば、Googleは2028年向けに300万個を超えるTPUについてIntelを確保したとされる。(The Information)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7fe3aaa3-60d6-4654-8da7-2d832a85ee86","kind":"paragraph","order":464,"section_id":"sec_0e774861-a9c9-4104-ba4e-cadcf0c8508d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intelの役割については契約詳細が公開されていないため注意が必要だが、報道の中心はadvanced packagingである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_83d988f1-b9ce-4d91-b8c7-ccbab5d820b4","kind":"paragraph","order":465,"section_id":"sec_0e774861-a9c9-4104-ba4e-cadcf0c8508d","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0af9bed-aa22-4592-8a5c-a38abe8ea14a","kind":"paragraph","order":466,"section_id":"sec_0e774861-a9c9-4104-ba4e-cadcf0c8508d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Compute / I/O wafer\n        ↓\nTSMC等","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1631a1a5-725f-455f-8d94-2ba538d40999","kind":"paragraph","order":467,"section_id":"sec_0e774861-a9c9-4104-ba4e-cadcf0c8508d","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM\n        ↓\nSK hynix / Micron / Samsung","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_827ede9e-6720-4dc6-be0b-4875cade435b","kind":"paragraph","order":468,"section_id":"sec_0e774861-a9c9-4104-ba4e-cadcf0c8508d","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73784b32-652d-488e-b087-fb97c1a06e10","kind":"paragraph","order":469,"section_id":"sec_0e774861-a9c9-4104-ba4e-cadcf0c8508d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intel\nEMIB-T packaging","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8971a5b1-50ee-48cf-b9a6-5eb635c79136","kind":"paragraph","order":470,"section_id":"sec_0e774861-a9c9-4104-ba4e-cadcf0c8508d","character_id":null,"markdown":"という分業も可能になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_089a0d1a-f595-413c-a79e-ef3943ec1b7f","kind":"paragraph","order":471,"section_id":"sec_0e774861-a9c9-4104-ba4e-cadcf0c8508d","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは重要だ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f2ae09e5-d4c2-4e71-aa61-01fa3d3c30a3","kind":"paragraph","order":472,"section_id":"sec_0e774861-a9c9-4104-ba4e-cadcf0c8508d","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMCで前工程を作ったチップをIntelで後工程する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f2f34237-1c86-48f0-a17b-92a64776fcd2","kind":"paragraph","order":473,"section_id":"sec_0e774861-a9c9-4104-ba4e-cadcf0c8508d","character_id":null,"markdown":"という構造が成立するからである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15e6ca68-0b06-436c-be00-a08b1a0ed740","kind":"paragraph","order":474,"section_id":"sec_0e774861-a9c9-4104-ba4e-cadcf0c8508d","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMC自身も2026年7月の決算で、EMIB-Tについて問われたC.C. Wei CEOが、TSMCのpackaging capacityが顧客成長を制限するほど逼迫しているため「追加の選択肢を歓迎する」と述べている。(The Motley Fool)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_db9cb64d-9a2a-4aec-8cee-8f1604cdf2eb","kind":"heading","order":475,"section_id":"sec_1e7e4f45-f0c5-4c0b-bcb1-f1294680da57","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Google案件と供給網","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_78c77966-8efa-4b66-8b80-3d6ef0e1d4ff","kind":"figure","order":476,"section_id":"sec_1e7e4f45-f0c5-4c0b-bcb1-f1294680da57","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Google案件と供給網 01](/media/2ab4b0b967b94cf9f7637e63ed111617dbbd05fe22bd4e8b8cbc762f54a9e6c0-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_044319f2-8124-4b73-9a4a-69eef29234e3","kind":"heading","order":477,"section_id":"sec_8acb656d-933c-4ef2-b9f0-b12e0263045e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第22章　MediaTek","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7a7152bb-f315-417a-99e2-a7fe91cf123b","kind":"paragraph","order":478,"section_id":"sec_8acb656d-933c-4ef2-b9f0-b12e0263045e","character_id":null,"markdown":"MediaTekは2026年5月、Reutersに対して、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e5fbfe0-1e90-4269-a824-eb50bda3a0c5","kind":"paragraph","order":479,"section_id":"sec_8acb656d-933c-4ef2-b9f0-b12e0263045e","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMC CoWoSとIntel EMIBの両方をサポートする","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_264530ec-20fc-4e55-a35d-c9dd2a7b4254","kind":"paragraph","order":480,"section_id":"sec_8acb656d-933c-4ef2-b9f0-b12e0263045e","character_id":null,"markdown":"と公式に説明した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3d77aa67-4f5c-41de-b4a6-b595e4d5d779","kind":"paragraph","order":481,"section_id":"sec_8acb656d-933c-4ef2-b9f0-b12e0263045e","character_id":null,"markdown":"顧客が用途に応じて選択できるようにするためである。(Reuters)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c604a92-06b0-4a86-bf93-55969c106296","kind":"paragraph","order":482,"section_id":"sec_8acb656d-933c-4ef2-b9f0-b12e0263045e","character_id":null,"markdown":"MediaTekは現在custom AI ASIC事業を急拡大しており、この種の企業にEMIB-Tは非常に相性がいい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_545a29fc-777f-4a58-a148-d518c34eeaea","kind":"paragraph","order":483,"section_id":"sec_8acb656d-933c-4ef2-b9f0-b12e0263045e","character_id":null,"markdown":"一部報道では、次世代MediaTek案件でEMIB-Tを使用し2027年Q4量産とする情報もある。(IT之家)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7c5e396-0137-4f9b-8cc2-479ababc17f0","kind":"paragraph","order":484,"section_id":"sec_8acb656d-933c-4ef2-b9f0-b12e0263045e","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただしMediaTekの公式発言は「CoWoSとEMIB双方をサポート」であるため、特定案件の独占採用についてはサプライチェーン情報と公式情報を分けて見る必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1560cbb0-1f75-43e7-9946-cefd5bf5b160","kind":"heading","order":485,"section_id":"sec_2977e35e-c08d-4b7d-ab43-f2f8bb7f79ca","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜MediaTekのパッケージ戦略","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9eb89826-6e87-4011-99af-730545d10965","kind":"figure","order":486,"section_id":"sec_2977e35e-c08d-4b7d-ab43-f2f8bb7f79ca","character_id":null,"markdown":"![MediaTekのパッケージ戦略 01](/media/e730d4a7f523ad15a3e7b15a5d27b19c8cee5a14636bd7b996a15075c1876563-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a0dd591b-852c-4de1-8c04-6fe9d6e067b3","kind":"heading","order":487,"section_id":"sec_9b0dd5b2-060b-4260-b698-a4b6a9f7ec4a","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第23章　NVIDIA","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3bbb06d0-aeb1-4439-9663-36ec73fe0f6d","kind":"paragraph","order":488,"section_id":"sec_9b0dd5b2-060b-4260-b698-a4b6a9f7ec4a","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVIDIAはGoogleとは状況が違う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_16926093-0c1d-4fe0-b872-68463769f897","kind":"paragraph","order":489,"section_id":"sec_9b0dd5b2-060b-4260-b698-a4b6a9f7ec4a","character_id":null,"markdown":"The InformationによればNVIDIAは、2028年のFeynman世代に関連して、複数GPUダイを統合する次世代processorでIntelのadvanced packagingを評価している。(The Information)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ea6865ae-06f9-4726-8ab5-0cfcb931114a","kind":"paragraph","order":490,"section_id":"sec_9b0dd5b2-060b-4260-b698-a4b6a9f7ec4a","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dec0a3fb-d6af-4a4b-b4ff-b4a1f73d6f76","kind":"paragraph","order":491,"section_id":"sec_9b0dd5b2-060b-4260-b698-a4b6a9f7ec4a","character_id":null,"markdown":"現時点でNVIDIAからの確定注文は報じられていない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_533605ca-589c-4ff1-a531-4c9e21d87683","kind":"paragraph","order":492,"section_id":"sec_9b0dd5b2-060b-4260-b698-a4b6a9f7ec4a","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1fb63343-d9c3-49a3-9aaf-670d5eb835a8","kind":"paragraph","order":493,"section_id":"sec_9b0dd5b2-060b-4260-b698-a4b6a9f7ec4a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Google：報道上はorder","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9a38d57-b75d-47c7-b5c9-c854101f729a","kind":"paragraph","order":494,"section_id":"sec_9b0dd5b2-060b-4260-b698-a4b6a9f7ec4a","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVIDIA：evaluation","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_06d05d85-4dbe-4083-a2df-ebbddb4e1ef3","kind":"paragraph","order":495,"section_id":"sec_9b0dd5b2-060b-4260-b698-a4b6a9f7ec4a","character_id":null,"markdown":"という違いがある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_92a815f5-096f-425b-a388-b09a904e2959","kind":"heading","order":496,"section_id":"sec_fb0816ea-0357-496f-b846-a6c1f97e1874","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜NVIDIAの評価段階","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc3ff80d-0bcd-4f27-8ab5-dbbb71e17d8c","kind":"figure","order":497,"section_id":"sec_fb0816ea-0357-496f-b846-a6c1f97e1874","character_id":null,"markdown":"![NVIDIAの評価段階 01](/media/792295ddadae8378b8281d5c882e22c6d03c22118cc084c81b7e4babf379b928-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56e1e079-5386-4aef-8524-aacdd3302471","kind":"heading","order":498,"section_id":"sec_4afc1872-ad12-43cb-afa5-1039006a23fb","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第24章　SK hynix","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5d3a0f5-eda0-4a2d-a497-66b76f4bc3d7","kind":"paragraph","order":499,"section_id":"sec_4afc1872-ad12-43cb-afa5-1039006a23fb","character_id":null,"markdown":"SK hynixは最終顧客というよりecosystem partnerとして重要である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fcbedae7-e453-484e-80a0-b3e047efd419","kind":"paragraph","order":500,"section_id":"sec_4afc1872-ad12-43cb-afa5-1039006a23fb","character_id":null,"markdown":"報道ではSK hynixがIntel packaging上でHBMが安定動作するかを評価している。(Tom's Hardware)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff78bd42-dd0e-4921-b23a-e0739c76185a","kind":"paragraph","order":501,"section_id":"sec_4afc1872-ad12-43cb-afa5-1039006a23fb","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは一社の顧客案件以上の意味を持つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3e629eed-bed8-4d18-ab11-ae08f4b810df","kind":"paragraph","order":502,"section_id":"sec_4afc1872-ad12-43cb-afa5-1039006a23fb","character_id":null,"markdown":"Google、AWS、NVIDIA、その他ASICメーカーがEMIB-Tを使うには、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_76898537-7b8f-436d-b3c0-9be803ee2e71","kind":"paragraph","order":503,"section_id":"sec_4afc1872-ad12-43cb-afa5-1039006a23fb","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM3E/HBM4/HBM5がEMIB-T上で十分にqualificationされていること","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b614d4f2-8ee2-4484-9f0b-dcffc92b8f9e","kind":"paragraph","order":504,"section_id":"sec_4afc1872-ad12-43cb-afa5-1039006a23fb","character_id":null,"markdown":"が必要だからである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71bdabe4-18dd-4be3-8f3f-e8dc1653c88c","kind":"heading","order":505,"section_id":"sec_78bd4940-ece9-4644-a4d6-6a822693229b","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜HBM qualificationとSK hynix","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_629a7798-0145-4495-ad9f-fcce7d70c944","kind":"figure","order":506,"section_id":"sec_78bd4940-ece9-4644-a4d6-6a822693229b","character_id":null,"markdown":"![HBM qualificationとSK hynix 01](/media/a67ebbbf131c27a80e3c1f5213c9b4dbb3480fcc4f8dddfae797e0ef52600bd4-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b7d1b25f-e65f-45c0-b27f-e39ce9761616","kind":"heading","order":507,"section_id":"sec_0c1401a0-5a1d-4c05-9eef-d7a25ae00a54","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第25章　AWSやその他ASICメーカー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_04a4b916-13c7-4428-ab0f-c55b2a948eb3","kind":"paragraph","order":508,"section_id":"sec_0c1401a0-5a1d-4c05-9eef-d7a25ae00a54","character_id":null,"markdown":"Amazon AWSについてもTrainium系でIntel packaging採用の観測が存在する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7faa41bc-71fc-441b-88fc-bf2c0d0e374a","kind":"paragraph","order":509,"section_id":"sec_0c1401a0-5a1d-4c05-9eef-d7a25ae00a54","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただしGoogle案件ほど公式確認度は高くなく、現段階ではbrokerやサプライチェーン情報として扱うべきである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c18799da-abde-45f3-91f7-382159d79fd8","kind":"paragraph","order":510,"section_id":"sec_0c1401a0-5a1d-4c05-9eef-d7a25ae00a54","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-Tに最も適している顧客層は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7493a826-7fa0-48d7-8452-f4c6e06af4c6","kind":"paragraph","order":511,"section_id":"sec_0c1401a0-5a1d-4c05-9eef-d7a25ae00a54","character_id":null,"markdown":"Google TPU","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_219ab0c8-caac-4bde-ad4c-dbab5c4d8145","kind":"paragraph","order":512,"section_id":"sec_0c1401a0-5a1d-4c05-9eef-d7a25ae00a54","character_id":null,"markdown":"AWS Trainium","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a7051f55-5fd7-42f3-ab17-c324488061a4","kind":"paragraph","order":513,"section_id":"sec_0c1401a0-5a1d-4c05-9eef-d7a25ae00a54","character_id":null,"markdown":"Meta custom ASIC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc950816-170a-44ea-96d4-82ba5bba6452","kind":"paragraph","order":514,"section_id":"sec_0c1401a0-5a1d-4c05-9eef-d7a25ae00a54","character_id":null,"markdown":"Microsoft Maia","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0f4b3357-7f33-43ee-a6fc-a81cbde2353b","kind":"paragraph","order":515,"section_id":"sec_0c1401a0-5a1d-4c05-9eef-d7a25ae00a54","character_id":null,"markdown":"その他hyperscaler ASIC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_29ed8f36-d7a8-4069-a401-f8ede6d63472","kind":"paragraph","order":516,"section_id":"sec_0c1401a0-5a1d-4c05-9eef-d7a25ae00a54","character_id":null,"markdown":"のような自社利用型AIアクセラレータだろう。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9995d25d-a62c-4b5c-843e-40a2526cbdbe","kind":"paragraph","order":517,"section_id":"sec_0c1401a0-5a1d-4c05-9eef-d7a25ae00a54","character_id":null,"markdown":"理由はコストである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_02fe012a-b1bc-4810-9d73-4e08c2c6a394","kind":"paragraph","order":518,"section_id":"sec_0c1401a0-5a1d-4c05-9eef-d7a25ae00a54","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えば一個当たりpackage costを1,000ドル削減できると仮定すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66211000-6cf0-443a-8318-569951459200","kind":"paragraph","order":519,"section_id":"sec_0c1401a0-5a1d-4c05-9eef-d7a25ae00a54","character_id":null,"markdown":"300万個なら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e704fd59-d56b-42de-9afe-b50acf6e3e46","kind":"paragraph","order":520,"section_id":"sec_0c1401a0-5a1d-4c05-9eef-d7a25ae00a54","character_id":null,"markdown":"30億ドル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c3af6eb6-1380-4c20-817c-347ccd1c25a6","kind":"paragraph","order":521,"section_id":"sec_0c1401a0-5a1d-4c05-9eef-d7a25ae00a54","character_id":null,"markdown":"の差になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c83b5f6-486f-42ba-a61c-7f9003893c3a","kind":"paragraph","order":522,"section_id":"sec_0c1401a0-5a1d-4c05-9eef-d7a25ae00a54","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVIDIAのようにチップそのものを高価格で販売する企業以上に、数百万個を自社DCへ投入するhyperscalerではpackage cost削減がそのままCloud TCOへ効いてくる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2446d88b-4b18-4621-b6b6-9892de52e5bc","kind":"heading","order":523,"section_id":"sec_50f8486a-8d93-4676-8feb-086919539916","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜ハイパースケーラーASICとCloud TCO","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f43eff44-836f-46ab-a558-82a42acc55fc","kind":"figure","order":524,"section_id":"sec_50f8486a-8d93-4676-8feb-086919539916","character_id":null,"markdown":"![ハイパースケーラーASICとCloud TCO 01](/media/4ed2699054170e6ae960a753440caf3005e801177ef44f52b07a36d29df456ab-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6d0a88a9-4e92-4aaa-b5d3-035b90c414c4","kind":"figure","order":525,"section_id":"sec_50f8486a-8d93-4676-8feb-086919539916","character_id":null,"markdown":"![ハイパースケーラーASICとCloud TCO 02](/media/b35ce6bb3284a1692a0f8de02faa8eca9724d2fde542fd97894115ef565a14a0-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4a90f1f2-03e3-4672-af53-82dea28c5634","kind":"heading","order":526,"section_id":"sec_9b632a79-f1ae-4b15-b1c4-70967dc47c58","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第26章　なぜ今EMIB-Tが突然注目されているのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eb865d39-e1d6-4ed1-b326-4d8a97687993","kind":"paragraph","order":527,"section_id":"sec_9b632a79-f1ae-4b15-b1c4-70967dc47c58","character_id":null,"markdown":"背景にはTSMCのCoWoS不足がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7889dda-a631-400d-a060-e6a8c1898071","kind":"paragraph","order":528,"section_id":"sec_9b632a79-f1ae-4b15-b1c4-70967dc47c58","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMC CEO C.C. Wei自身が2026年7月、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c612b82-c4a1-4dec-9617-096852226567","kind":"paragraph","order":529,"section_id":"sec_9b632a79-f1ae-4b15-b1c4-70967dc47c58","character_id":null,"markdown":"advanced packaging capacityが顧客の成長を制限するほど逼迫している","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0991dc2c-e014-453e-be8c-86e1c102aa24","kind":"paragraph","order":530,"section_id":"sec_9b632a79-f1ae-4b15-b1c4-70967dc47c58","character_id":null,"markdown":"と認めている。(The Motley Fool)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f18f331f-3728-49dc-adef-a0f507c8957a","kind":"paragraph","order":531,"section_id":"sec_9b632a79-f1ae-4b15-b1c4-70967dc47c58","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって顧客にとって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_03a16939-2fd6-4b86-ae9f-c18d5f7db79e","kind":"paragraph","order":532,"section_id":"sec_9b632a79-f1ae-4b15-b1c4-70967dc47c58","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMC Wafer\n+\nTSMC CoWoS","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d27fd229-d44e-4278-8b8f-ab949f040a14","kind":"paragraph","order":533,"section_id":"sec_9b632a79-f1ae-4b15-b1c4-70967dc47c58","character_id":null,"markdown":"一本だけに依存することは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_134dec6c-21ce-4b20-a90b-c30c46a59dcb","kind":"paragraph","order":534,"section_id":"sec_9b632a79-f1ae-4b15-b1c4-70967dc47c58","character_id":null,"markdown":"技術上の問題ではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aa0b360f-f782-4669-a1c4-e7fdc908d216","kind":"paragraph","order":535,"section_id":"sec_9b632a79-f1ae-4b15-b1c4-70967dc47c58","character_id":null,"markdown":"事業継続上のリスク","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7907d099-0a9b-46b6-ab42-0cf57be41db5","kind":"paragraph","order":536,"section_id":"sec_9b632a79-f1ae-4b15-b1c4-70967dc47c58","character_id":null,"markdown":"になり始めた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_db6c9a4e-1b26-451b-9350-f609daf6a9f8","kind":"paragraph","order":537,"section_id":"sec_9b632a79-f1ae-4b15-b1c4-70967dc47c58","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_104282c6-b723-4a20-accc-0bce32e2c9f1","kind":"paragraph","order":538,"section_id":"sec_9b632a79-f1ae-4b15-b1c4-70967dc47c58","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMC front-end\n+\nIntel advanced packaging","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6acb710e-88bd-40fd-ad00-ad8efd250b73","kind":"paragraph","order":539,"section_id":"sec_9b632a79-f1ae-4b15-b1c4-70967dc47c58","character_id":null,"markdown":"という第二経路が価値を持つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ecd886a4-71e7-4632-ad75-b0f537a3b430","kind":"paragraph","order":540,"section_id":"sec_9b632a79-f1ae-4b15-b1c4-70967dc47c58","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-Tの最初の大きな役割は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e4e4d3fb-62a8-4da2-b598-44850c03e668","kind":"paragraph","order":541,"section_id":"sec_9b632a79-f1ae-4b15-b1c4-70967dc47c58","character_id":null,"markdown":"CoWoSの代替というよりCoWoSのsecond 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図解｜代替手段から設計基盤への変化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf0ebc5f-8c43-4eee-88c0-4dc698f2385e","kind":"figure","order":569,"section_id":"sec_61c7a31c-9b16-4649-9a20-66a981a70222","character_id":null,"markdown":"![代替手段から設計基盤への変化 01](/media/af3805568f1f0f2bddc04960cac3a6d13d368490d6258382926a71dc23d10fbe-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_04dceb4c-64b2-4fbd-bbe1-840ab3154f69","kind":"heading","order":570,"section_id":"sec_6b8e1a92-7f49-4d08-a0db-af8bfac6609f","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第28章　TSMCの「準EMIB」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2060cd53-afbc-4202-a98d-6d26a4749b01","kind":"paragraph","order":571,"section_id":"sec_6b8e1a92-7f49-4d08-a0db-af8bfac6609f","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年7月末、The Informationを引用する形で、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_130efb42-c068-4914-936e-73009cba53e1","kind":"paragraph","order":572,"section_id":"sec_6b8e1a92-7f49-4d08-a0db-af8bfac6609f","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMCがIntel EMIBに似たadvanced 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第30章　なぜTSMCが自分でCoWoSをカニバライズするのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_684831e0-c9c7-436a-879c-c67fa3543dc7","kind":"paragraph","order":603,"section_id":"sec_4bb39b94-6583-4d5f-b8aa-b873803b2a2d","character_id":null,"markdown":"理由は簡単だ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_36278767-6886-4d31-8e20-669368159b0f","kind":"paragraph","order":604,"section_id":"sec_4bb39b94-6583-4d5f-b8aa-b873803b2a2d","character_id":null,"markdown":"競合に取られるより、自分で自分の製品を置き換えた方がいい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_253e460d-f6b5-4823-b7bc-75b7bae0674e","kind":"paragraph","order":605,"section_id":"sec_4bb39b94-6583-4d5f-b8aa-b873803b2a2d","character_id":null,"markdown":"仮にIntelが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff944659-4832-4f5f-b644-09523ba71c95","kind":"paragraph","order":606,"section_id":"sec_4bb39b94-6583-4d5f-b8aa-b873803b2a2d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Cost -40%","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a17615f1-cda0-473d-86d1-8a39dedc4c9c","kind":"paragraph","order":607,"section_id":"sec_4bb39b94-6583-4d5f-b8aa-b873803b2a2d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Package size +","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1efcbf24-d8c1-4237-9eff-502d92a995b6","kind":"paragraph","order":608,"section_id":"sec_4bb39b94-6583-4d5f-b8aa-b873803b2a2d","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM capacity +","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_747cce1a-f13e-4f7f-82ad-13ec56a25e0c","kind":"paragraph","order":609,"section_id":"sec_4bb39b94-6583-4d5f-b8aa-b873803b2a2d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Power delivery +","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fdd7bb44-277a-4a42-bb3b-f2ecfeec415d","kind":"paragraph","order":610,"section_id":"sec_4bb39b94-6583-4d5f-b8aa-b873803b2a2d","character_id":null,"markdown":"を実現すれば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_052d932f-3063-4b44-a781-2e48323c2bf3","kind":"paragraph","order":611,"section_id":"sec_4bb39b94-6583-4d5f-b8aa-b873803b2a2d","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMCが「CoWoSが儲かるから現状維持」とする方が危険である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f54fcef4-65cc-4447-b4ab-277bee6c8e1a","kind":"paragraph","order":612,"section_id":"sec_4bb39b94-6583-4d5f-b8aa-b873803b2a2d","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってTSMCが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aba95d7d-2f55-48e9-9444-b3e74f1d3505","kind":"paragraph","order":613,"section_id":"sec_4bb39b94-6583-4d5f-b8aa-b873803b2a2d","character_id":null,"markdown":"CoWoS-S↓CoWoS-L↓EMIB-like","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_487350e8-3f4e-47db-8f32-804f6f35aeb8","kind":"paragraph","order":614,"section_id":"sec_4bb39b94-6583-4d5f-b8aa-b873803b2a2d","character_id":null,"markdown":"と技術を広げるのは極めて合理的である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c79c595-b74f-49f5-8317-303ae480ec15","kind":"paragraph","order":615,"section_id":"sec_4bb39b94-6583-4d5f-b8aa-b873803b2a2d","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは同時に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6563b25c-572d-42f1-8880-2fa6c291ef09","kind":"paragraph","order":616,"section_id":"sec_4bb39b94-6583-4d5f-b8aa-b873803b2a2d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intelが長年進めてきたLocal Silicon Bridgeという思想が業界全体で評価され始めた","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a839c03c-e081-4eb9-a9d8-cd704043c68f","kind":"paragraph","order":617,"section_id":"sec_4bb39b94-6583-4d5f-b8aa-b873803b2a2d","character_id":null,"markdown":"とも解釈できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_552b029a-04e0-4d40-a2af-d2e0fac6aa31","kind":"heading","order":618,"section_id":"sec_209669d7-5ca5-49bc-9323-8db7117fe8e0","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜TSMCの局所シリコン戦略","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_375588dd-1be2-4fbf-92ed-8428797c3891","kind":"figure","order":619,"section_id":"sec_209669d7-5ca5-49bc-9323-8db7117fe8e0","character_id":null,"markdown":"![TSMCの局所シリコン戦略 01](/media/1b53a3e8a08ff4a18f2226f46ac1e142ffb18ccf4636107c13dcdfc8ea992009-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d555cb2f-1d0a-4a72-b8cf-5f5c06d820f1","kind":"heading","order":620,"section_id":"sec_b047b7fb-8eb5-4b51-a6b7-59f22f66f964","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第31章　ただしCoWoSは消えない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d77d282-8938-459f-9209-67e10211b40a","kind":"paragraph","order":621,"section_id":"sec_b047b7fb-8eb5-4b51-a6b7-59f22f66f964","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-Tが優れているからCoWoSが消える、という考え方も極端である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_50fd1a13-6053-4517-a5ce-69532451d628","kind":"paragraph","order":622,"section_id":"sec_b047b7fb-8eb5-4b51-a6b7-59f22f66f964","character_id":null,"markdown":"将来的には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_594daf5a-db11-46ba-bb1e-27d942ec2686","kind":"paragraph","order":623,"section_id":"sec_b047b7fb-8eb5-4b51-a6b7-59f22f66f964","character_id":null,"markdown":"Advanced Packaging\n       │\n ┌─────┼────────────┐\n ↓     ↓            ↓\nCoWoS-S CoWoS-L    EMIB-T\n ↓       ↓           ↓\n高密度   大型AI      大型・低コスト\n全面Si   RDL+LSI     Local Bridge","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0ca3dc26-839e-438f-bb88-9e8f4a6c6b51","kind":"paragraph","order":624,"section_id":"sec_b047b7fb-8eb5-4b51-a6b7-59f22f66f964","character_id":null,"markdown":"のように用途別に使い分けられる可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ad887fb-5b30-433e-b1b0-ceca17525e72","kind":"paragraph","order":625,"section_id":"sec_b047b7fb-8eb5-4b51-a6b7-59f22f66f964","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMCには、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_984506be-164b-433f-b8aa-f93213b077ae","kind":"paragraph","order":626,"section_id":"sec_b047b7fb-8eb5-4b51-a6b7-59f22f66f964","character_id":null,"markdown":"圧倒的な量産実績","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ac997cbb-1709-4e1d-9f12-9d9197f06e1a","kind":"paragraph","order":627,"section_id":"sec_b047b7fb-8eb5-4b51-a6b7-59f22f66f964","character_id":null,"markdown":"Turnkey","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8522f27-6acc-4107-8261-f9e1b41d6014","kind":"paragraph","order":628,"section_id":"sec_b047b7fb-8eb5-4b51-a6b7-59f22f66f964","character_id":null,"markdown":"Front-endとの統合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_79cac825-cd6c-4f26-8840-095d55ac6055","kind":"paragraph","order":629,"section_id":"sec_b047b7fb-8eb5-4b51-a6b7-59f22f66f964","character_id":null,"markdown":"高歩留まり","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3e094021-ed6b-486d-8b7d-881a233e990e","kind":"paragraph","order":630,"section_id":"sec_b047b7fb-8eb5-4b51-a6b7-59f22f66f964","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大な顧客ecosystem","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0d24cf36-9b43-4d6c-aa3e-2103006157e0","kind":"paragraph","order":631,"section_id":"sec_b047b7fb-8eb5-4b51-a6b7-59f22f66f964","character_id":null,"markdown":"がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_da073299-d571-4d34-ada7-972421dffada","kind":"paragraph","order":632,"section_id":"sec_b047b7fb-8eb5-4b51-a6b7-59f22f66f964","character_id":null,"markdown":"IntelがEMIB-Tという優れた技術を持っていても、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71651f40-eed2-4c6a-ac75-c46415a75141","kind":"paragraph","order":633,"section_id":"sec_b047b7fb-8eb5-4b51-a6b7-59f22f66f964","character_id":null,"markdown":"量産実行力までTSMCと同等になったことを意味するわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c0cb0d9-66d8-4c85-a02c-9b7ee595c8ab","kind":"paragraph","order":634,"section_id":"sec_b047b7fb-8eb5-4b51-a6b7-59f22f66f964","character_id":null,"markdown":"TrendForceも2026年初頭、Intel EMIBの課題としてyieldとcapacity establishmentを挙げ、TSMCがturnkey solutionと量産歩留まりで優位にあると分析している。(TrendForce)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8a7442b3-4d6c-4f9a-8593-b6782662b96b","kind":"heading","order":635,"section_id":"sec_573f2ef8-dcf4-4247-9107-dc311b40401b","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜CoWoS-S・CoWoS-L・EMIB-Tの共存","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a78c3499-e8eb-40dd-a212-4964ae75cb60","kind":"figure","order":636,"section_id":"sec_573f2ef8-dcf4-4247-9107-dc311b40401b","character_id":null,"markdown":"![CoWoS-S・CoWoS-L・EMIB-Tの共存 01](/media/613f2805618df4e24a164ddcaa5d37cf8f91b9aa062b3a1176098b76fd4213d9-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ff44dda-47cc-4fe1-a2ba-cec6f5186051","kind":"heading","order":637,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第32章　EMIB-Tで今後見るべきKPI","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cff149ce-c4c9-4008-a61c-2792cbb54713","kind":"paragraph","order":638,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-Tを見る上で、Intelの株価や「採用決定」というニュースだけを見るのでは足りない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3d8552bf-a331-49df-9aa9-b23b399e72a0","kind":"paragraph","order":639,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"本当に重要なのは以下である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_96fc3ccc-e230-4929-9264-c52a68519d39","kind":"paragraph","order":640,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"KPI 1　EMIB-T substrate yield","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eeac5560-b048-4462-b491-37ae9855b90f","kind":"paragraph","order":641,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"最重要指標。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0d6f1a20-e9cd-45bc-8b24-c9ba591545bc","kind":"paragraph","order":642,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"50%\n↓\n60%\n↓\n70%\n↓\n80%\n↓\n90%","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_36cb4904-3fb7-4e01-baa0-c9f60eea8363","kind":"paragraph","order":643,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"と改善できるか。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4a1aef0f-17dc-47af-9772-28c078d75185","kind":"paragraph","order":644,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"これによって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2cbc60c8-c1c9-450a-9ce0-cae4dbade41f","kind":"paragraph","order":645,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"生産能力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c6ff1e0-ca52-45f3-8969-ca1a1b026c23","kind":"paragraph","order":646,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"Cost","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_638385e9-79a5-4cfe-9d55-4885618a6102","kind":"paragraph","order":647,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"Gross Margin","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ec1d6680-c386-4979-ad0d-a588fc6ee556","kind":"paragraph","order":648,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"Delivery","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d1264046-adbd-4e0b-979a-8bd49236e9cf","kind":"paragraph","order":649,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"が大きく変わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_979a5c49-8736-4d19-beb0-45042cf5dfba","kind":"paragraph","order":650,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"KPI 2　25µm FLI assembly yield","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_31bc1102-b300-42af-b051-8423a7b9d61a","kind":"paragraph","order":651,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intelが25µm pitchを「作れた」ことと、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f651add7-e2ef-4bc4-b4ee-1c7f51a273c0","kind":"paragraph","order":652,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"数百万個を歩留まりよく量産できる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_40fc4f1c-0ea1-4a68-a9cd-02e3e6c2ef79","kind":"paragraph","order":653,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことは別である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84b43337-b0eb-455a-8132-fe19ff7b6ca1","kind":"paragraph","order":654,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"今後重要なのはproduction yieldである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b07cfa4-e672-4bee-a2d8-d3e38b7c0422","kind":"paragraph","order":655,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"KPI 3　120mm級Large Body PackageのWarpage","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b350089-5d0e-46b9-b56e-b83292d4aded","kind":"paragraph","order":656,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"package sizeが大きくなるほど、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12eb7ba8-9f5c-4497-831d-fe470b2a6e22","kind":"paragraph","order":657,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"mechanical stress","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_50615d53-38ea-43ec-8570-6add06d43a0a","kind":"paragraph","order":658,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"bump reliability","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eec1f7c2-1020-4578-9e9a-53098e00185c","kind":"paragraph","order":659,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"TIM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e4a80389-c0d7-4212-a2bf-225bf8f6438c","kind":"paragraph","order":660,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"cooling","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ca4bfb5-a993-4b4e-b65d-b8a0d9012f5b","kind":"paragraph","order":661,"section_id":"sec_4505c3a3-552c-4b4d-a55f-17c89f3d9c69","character_id":null,"markdown":"board 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第34章　EMIB-Tの成功で次のボトルネックはどこへ移るか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8bccb3ba-5bcc-4370-9c57-1b097c44750d","kind":"paragraph","order":754,"section_id":"sec_454dc718-906b-4e69-bace-d5b147381a2a","character_id":null,"markdown":"仮にIntelがEMIB-Tを完全に量産化した場合、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0fb6a325-1b2c-4ecf-80cc-5336c5ea27c9","kind":"paragraph","order":755,"section_id":"sec_454dc718-906b-4e69-bace-d5b147381a2a","character_id":null,"markdown":"CoWoS不足が消えるわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_50546ea9-dc3f-4d4a-b4d0-d052fd820b46","kind":"paragraph","order":756,"section_id":"sec_454dc718-906b-4e69-bace-d5b147381a2a","character_id":null,"markdown":"ボトルネックが移動する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c7a67284-3c76-42e6-af96-adf71d22c096","kind":"paragraph","order":757,"section_id":"sec_454dc718-906b-4e69-bace-d5b147381a2a","character_id":null,"markdown":"以前","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d9c0df1-7d0a-46ee-9f4c-827b1ed3f78a","kind":"paragraph","order":758,"section_id":"sec_454dc718-906b-4e69-bace-d5b147381a2a","character_id":null,"markdown":"CoWoS\n ↓\n不足","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_700bf420-8b35-472e-91d7-9c928c37b36b","kind":"paragraph","order":759,"section_id":"sec_454dc718-906b-4e69-bace-d5b147381a2a","character_id":null,"markdown":"将来","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e652ef3b-425b-45b1-8c47-3bdc8d0198bb","kind":"paragraph","order":760,"section_id":"sec_454dc718-906b-4e69-bace-d5b147381a2a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Advanced Packaging\n ↓\nABF substrate\n ↓\nT-glass\n ↓\nHBM\n ↓\nTesting\n ↓\nThermal","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a625540e-2724-43da-af25-0359fbf6d102","kind":"paragraph","order":761,"section_id":"sec_454dc718-906b-4e69-bace-d5b147381a2a","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_23d05bb5-b7e8-488d-8e53-e9925574dbed","kind":"paragraph","order":762,"section_id":"sec_454dc718-906b-4e69-bace-d5b147381a2a","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIインフラでは問題を一つ解決すると、その次の工程が制約になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f024741-337f-492f-b974-38a92d63e288","kind":"paragraph","order":763,"section_id":"sec_454dc718-906b-4e69-bace-d5b147381a2a","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-Tはその典型である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_36de3e71-7147-4389-ac37-9df1a2fa0bf7","kind":"heading","order":764,"section_id":"sec_11729774-abbe-4424-8685-a4ba2eb423dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜次の供給網ボトルネック","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_104f8ddd-1e36-4e94-a5f8-b69aa2317b46","kind":"figure","order":765,"section_id":"sec_11729774-abbe-4424-8685-a4ba2eb423dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"![次の供給網ボトルネック 01](/media/98f7c07ec3f37d4158f222559cb11d1c4b487e53e04e8b2a33e4c73c85684492-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c6de7059-492b-40f1-8dff-c77c84958ab2","kind":"figure","order":766,"section_id":"sec_11729774-abbe-4424-8685-a4ba2eb423dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"![次の供給網ボトルネック 02](/media/e4bd186888e3463007db16ed4b6d1d9abcb9bec8c82c7ce9ea215f1ade475a2e-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a54ef8d5-d19e-4883-994f-210d90c5be9c","kind":"heading","order":767,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第35章　最終的にはGlass Substrateへ向かう可能性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_348a5b28-94b7-4073-b38d-e69b4da1e817","kind":"paragraph","order":768,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"IntelがGlass Substrateを長年研究している理由もEMIB-Tとつながる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_031cf4f0-8366-473a-9cbe-6bb68ae60563","kind":"paragraph","order":769,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"有機基板が巨大化すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_99767e0b-cc8e-4f2e-89f2-d162b58e9b3b","kind":"paragraph","order":770,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"Warpage","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_65ca3999-d801-48c2-b91c-d19f67e222e3","kind":"paragraph","order":771,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"Dimensional stability","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ddc15e1-8e4d-434a-8c20-8e587a5db23c","kind":"paragraph","order":772,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"CTE","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3d91bf13-e144-43eb-985d-136515b021c5","kind":"paragraph","order":773,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"fine wiring","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_91594b29-7ac1-4d50-86db-88c0a0f80fc6","kind":"paragraph","order":774,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"の限界が近づく。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_75c7d714-2652-460e-9cd4-f169b346780e","kind":"paragraph","order":775,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"Glassは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88383b0a-c0db-45e0-90cd-a37a167c7c5f","kind":"paragraph","order":776,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"平坦性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4cd51195-8657-4103-b141-974ed990ba7b","kind":"paragraph","order":777,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"dimensional stability","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b2e97bde-3501-403e-aa4b-73ff09801d96","kind":"paragraph","order":778,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"fine wiring","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a0ba71fe-cab6-441d-be9d-727927fb612d","kind":"paragraph","order":779,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"大型化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9c638aff-95fa-4ada-bdd0-acbbe6450091","kind":"paragraph","order":780,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"に有利である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ae5e7442-156c-4c7f-9c28-84edf6533c07","kind":"paragraph","order":781,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d27cce5-9b8f-4b94-9ae9-3824b8c89777","kind":"paragraph","order":782,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0938eaa9-a890-4823-ad69-59e1d47cd7fd","kind":"paragraph","order":783,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-T\n+\nOrganic ABF","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_69addc59-89a0-4e5a-8ad0-1159336edee3","kind":"paragraph","order":784,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"将来","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2ca0bc6a-9718-4ed8-926c-577a3b15c8db","kind":"paragraph","order":785,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-T\n+\nGlass Core / Glass Substrate","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bb641aea-2696-4041-bcff-1b9ecd88113c","kind":"paragraph","order":786,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"という進化が考えられる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1dbaa0d6-4514-451d-9cc0-ae14b82baf5b","kind":"paragraph","order":787,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりEMIB-Tは単独技術というより、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e4d664f6-850e-4426-96c2-9577d15d25a2","kind":"paragraph","order":788,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"Bridge → TSV → MIM → Advanced Substrate → Glass → CPO","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f9bae41-deda-4bb5-8a30-a6a7310dfb09","kind":"paragraph","order":789,"section_id":"sec_2096706f-799e-4fb3-8893-18834f1d0e88","character_id":null,"markdown":"というIntelの巨大なpackage roadmapの一部である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d776e8e-f77a-4efd-a2ae-3fffda5e26e3","kind":"heading","order":790,"section_id":"sec_93d451a1-9468-4e6c-a8b8-c3ccbc1608fb","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜有機ABFからGlass Substrateへ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_359d235e-71c1-432f-85f1-5e1888285c21","kind":"figure","order":791,"section_id":"sec_93d451a1-9468-4e6c-a8b8-c3ccbc1608fb","character_id":null,"markdown":"![有機ABFからGlass Substrateへ 01](/media/448b3e82cb5506651dbbfd0d0bfe92a90a1af6a63f87826c43547b1c2a7c5c72-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_793c77da-fdf0-4984-ab9e-998b639c381a","kind":"figure","order":792,"section_id":"sec_93d451a1-9468-4e6c-a8b8-c3ccbc1608fb","character_id":null,"markdown":"![有機ABFからGlass Substrateへ 02](/media/e953219f26641f63b3c799beb2c2e98eaf3b53965bd677427eed37174dd9c763-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d45cdc2-2a39-4bdc-95c3-27e210e0aaff","kind":"heading","order":793,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 結論――EMIB-Tの本当の意味","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eb46d692-cec3-4aa8-a8f8-1cf9568085a7","kind":"paragraph","order":794,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-Tを単純に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e7b23456-21ee-46c2-b663-051d06aa5dc0","kind":"paragraph","order":795,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"「Intel版CoWoS」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a63c94f3-773d-4129-b47c-44ceec0ece95","kind":"paragraph","order":796,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"と理解すると本質を見失う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b04372d9-2e78-41c4-9a78-82ff69bacd7b","kind":"paragraph","order":797,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-Tの思想は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_424790ee-2b71-4ffa-8f62-6ebc31979d1b","kind":"paragraph","order":798,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大なシリコンを全面へ敷くのではなく、高価な高密度配線を必要な場所だけに配置する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5cb8c6fb-16ad-4f3c-8ef5-a38648ba1c76","kind":"paragraph","order":799,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a099653a-a7c6-4209-bcfc-e562fe0df9e8","kind":"paragraph","order":800,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"そしてTSVを加えたことで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fa4a5ff4-0a7f-4baf-8225-180153a55c25","kind":"paragraph","order":801,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"通信だけではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3898bead-e9a2-4a9f-8eac-90810db44356","kind":"paragraph","order":802,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"電力供給までLocal Silicon Bridgeへ統合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c5274c30-19f0-40c8-a6ab-f2d2a645a9c4","kind":"paragraph","order":803,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8428cc2-ed33-477a-bd10-bace0a092b40","kind":"paragraph","order":804,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"この構造によってIntelは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e4d8ad7-396c-4970-8d82-93b802a310fe","kind":"paragraph","order":805,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大AI package","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_156394eb-b8c1-43ee-a1de-107b20b3ecd3","kind":"paragraph","order":806,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"多数HBM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5942bf0a-8fb5-4820-8ab0-368a266716ba","kind":"paragraph","order":807,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"chiplet","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c03a3867-a6a0-4d50-8501-00bb66da081b","kind":"paragraph","order":808,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"UCIe","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a872ebae-d5af-498a-9846-c8979672e59d","kind":"paragraph","order":809,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"高電力ASIC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d31a3c4-7d6d-45ce-8bf3-f02e5a044078","kind":"paragraph","order":810,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"を低コストで統合しようとしている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_74b94d5a-9f73-4664-8f68-47f531e55c75","kind":"paragraph","order":811,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"技術的には極めて合理的である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5be0c17c-fcc1-48b2-bf4a-4296309201b5","kind":"paragraph","order":812,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、本当の勝負はこれからだ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0f8f6b06-4245-4644-a112-923c3b5d6c1f","kind":"paragraph","order":813,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-TのSilicon Bridgeそのものはかなり成熟し始めている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4b2e2d56-995c-40e5-a995-0640b422cd36","kind":"paragraph","order":814,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在の最大の問題は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f9cee91a-f16e-4127-a90d-9a7262e6b405","kind":"paragraph","order":815,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大なABF substrateへ何十個ものBridgeを埋め込み、25µm級接続で、多数のHBMとCompute Dieを、十分な歩留まりで量産すること","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9141254e-a94c-4a53-adae-a5bf078d8828","kind":"paragraph","order":816,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ移っている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d6c2d80f-b7c0-4ad2-9c15-4dcfe82199f2","kind":"paragraph","order":817,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため2027〜2028年に見るべきものは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0875151a-6e4a-4081-a941-e5ac76dd6380","kind":"paragraph","order":818,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"「EMIB-Tを採用した」というニュースだけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_751272f5-80cb-413a-9064-f21970185f57","kind":"paragraph","order":819,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"見るべきは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd640298-6620-4316-8c14-d55039f4ba43","kind":"paragraph","order":820,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"substrate yield、warpage、25µm assembly yield、HBM qualification、Bridge数、ABF capacity、T-glass、顧客前払い、backlog","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12dcf01f-f7e0-4ee6-9bb2-02e8f2456985","kind":"paragraph","order":821,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1f035aa5-6bd2-4863-9496-03f495c8ace7","kind":"paragraph","order":822,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在報じられている50〜60%級の初期substrate yieldが事実だとすれば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_25c951d5-3e6c-4820-b0d3-55671b41469c","kind":"paragraph","order":823,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここを80〜90%近くまで引き上げられるかどうかがEMIB-Tの経済性を大きく左右する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_61dde423-79b0-4895-888d-9ca8c42c11ad","kind":"paragraph","order":824,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"もしそれが実現すれば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fafa85ef-a30e-4093-a268-f509aaa43f59","kind":"paragraph","order":825,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-Tは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_25e754ff-675b-4ace-8e8f-ba81f76684c1","kind":"paragraph","order":826,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"「CoWoSが足りないから仕方なく使う技術」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71e255e4-5d88-4dc4-be3b-0761736a23a1","kind":"paragraph","order":827,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"ではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e271ddba-9533-4375-bee7-599b830ca20e","kind":"paragraph","order":828,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"「巨大AI ASICなら最初からEMIB-Tを選んだ方が安く、大きく、高性能に作れる」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_388a64c9-6782-49fe-84db-e23ec1e1a04a","kind":"paragraph","order":829,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"というplatformへ変わる可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_847d5796-4ed1-4426-9283-89924bff933a","kind":"paragraph","order":830,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMCが「EMIB-like」と呼ばれる方式を開発しているとの報道は、この変化を象徴している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_795200b0-80eb-4478-9059-cd952f835d57","kind":"paragraph","order":831,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"そしてさらに重要なのは、その結果としてAI半導体の価値が、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5615bd2f-5185-4657-9666-f3b69a6b9e4d","kind":"paragraph","order":832,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"前工程\n微細化\n↓\nCompute Die","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5767654-0de1-4630-a385-ad50fa1192aa","kind":"paragraph","order":833,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"だけではなく","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e3feceb0-2c88-46db-81ed-5ae7e6782dc4","kind":"paragraph","order":834,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM\n+\nAdvanced Packaging\n+\nABF\n+\nPower Delivery\n+\nThermal\n+\nTesting\n+\nOptical I/O","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e41f7525-514c-4413-9f57-b388bd3a500e","kind":"paragraph","order":835,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ広がっていることである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_556beebe-00b7-4aa8-8e06-70b010eb727f","kind":"paragraph","order":836,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI半導体では、「後工程」という言葉そのものが古くなりつつある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4bb79fe0-ebfc-4c39-b3e7-3701c579caa4","kind":"paragraph","order":837,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-TやCoWoSはもはや完成したチップを箱へ入れる工程ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_22730402-c678-4d89-a51c-b1d7053b5817","kind":"paragraph","order":838,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Compute、Memory、Power、Networkを統合して一つのAIシステムを作る、第二の半導体製造工程である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2aa6afaa-5383-45d2-82eb-e2f484f6462d","kind":"paragraph","order":839,"section_id":"sec_41c2e18b-fabc-43ab-b567-3931d14e537d","character_id":null,"markdown":"そして2027〜2028年は、その主導権をTSMCが維持するのか、IntelがEMIB-Tによって一角を奪うのかを判断する重要な期間になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_832f0050-1479-4502-b93f-1413755c052f","kind":"heading","order":840,"section_id":"sec_ba3a6aef-1814-4e50-954b-b92b31ab07da","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜信号・電力・製造を統合するSystem of Chips","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1dc63ab3-0a25-4d91-ad8e-8450b53aca09","kind":"figure","order":841,"section_id":"sec_ba3a6aef-1814-4e50-954b-b92b31ab07da","character_id":null,"markdown":"![信号・電力・製造を統合するSystem of Chips 01](/media/d1d252e3f043ba4782f4bc93801d723bc60266205e10bc5a8b69c0a628758453-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6bb291e4-8696-4aa4-aa9e-d620af3b9ae2","kind":"figure","order":842,"section_id":"sec_ba3a6aef-1814-4e50-954b-b92b31ab07da","character_id":null,"markdown":"![信号・電力・製造を統合するSystem of Chips 02](/media/448daeed69cdcdbce553ee7b438bcc6d048c5106fb82c853c4daa093f4c32b0e-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ba6a718-e890-413a-8c6a-6b21b6e537e7","kind":"figure","order":843,"section_id":"sec_ba3a6aef-1814-4e50-954b-b92b31ab07da","character_id":null,"markdown":"![信号・電力・製造を統合するSystem of Chips 03](/media/547cf67e09bbfefef174e9903dac993531ceedd0b585cd63338b89a85e1a9669-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b5f446e2-4147-425f-835d-003260feaddf","kind":"heading","order":844,"section_id":"sec_03f348d1-f2c5-459b-8607-fad7b90f59d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"## さらに深める――EMIB-Tの歩留まりは掛け算で決まる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_28c033ec-a738-4570-bafe-41f086f9556b","kind":"paragraph","order":845,"section_id":"sec_03f348d1-f2c5-459b-8607-fad7b90f59d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-Tの評価で最も重要なのは、Silicon Bridge単体の良品率と、完成パッケージの良品率を混同しないことである。巨大AIパッケージには、複数のCompute Die、HBM、ブリッジ、基板、電源構造、接続点が含まれる。各工程が高歩留まりでも、組み合わせる数が増えるほど全体歩留まりは下がる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_929b96a2-9f90-4e1b-a371-7530f2801f5f","kind":"paragraph","order":846,"section_id":"sec_03f348d1-f2c5-459b-8607-fad7b90f59d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"単純化すれば、完成歩留まりは次の積として考えられる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c8ef2e3-f57a-429e-8ff4-36c7dd03a34c","kind":"math","order":847,"section_id":"sec_03f348d1-f2c5-459b-8607-fad7b90f59d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"$$\nY_{package}=Y_{substrate}\\times Y_{bridge}^{N}\\times Y_{assembly}\\times Y_{HBM}\\times Y_{test}\n$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c06dabc5-9b03-440b-b379-8a8f75cc8091","kind":"paragraph","order":848,"section_id":"sec_03f348d1-f2c5-459b-8607-fad7b90f59d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここで $N$ はブリッジ数である。実際には欠陥が独立とは限らず、修復や選別もあるため、この式だけで製品歩留まりは決まらない。それでも、ブリッジ数と接続点が増えるほど、局所的な成功を完成品へ変える難度が上がることは分かる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_513aace8-c829-42af-baba-2002d5966173","kind":"paragraph","order":849,"section_id":"sec_03f348d1-f2c5-459b-8607-fad7b90f59d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMIB-Tの経済性は、シリコン使用面積を減らす利点と、埋め込み精度、反り、25µm接続、TSV、基板検査の追加難度の差で決まる。全面インターポーザーを避ければ材料費を下げられる可能性があるが、基板工程の失敗が多ければ、その利点は失われる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb421227-7cf5-4faf-80aa-ba3cace9b9a4","kind":"paragraph","order":850,"section_id":"sec_03f348d1-f2c5-459b-8607-fad7b90f59d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらに、EMIB-Tが成功するとボトルネックは消えずに移動する。ブリッジ供給が増えればABFとT-glass、組み立てが詰まり、そこを越えればHBM、熱、電力、検査、光I/Oが次に現れる。先端パッケージの競争とは、一つの技術を勝たせる競争ではなく、制約の移動速度より速く供給網を再設計する競争である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fdc9e61f-4b86-4928-b629-571e6afd00c7","kind":"heading","order":851,"section_id":"sec_20e7c787-8969-4408-b1eb-1729ac5c622e","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"## 絶ノイアの観測","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_05b736f5-cadf-4c1b-9c96-1d4d63e114e2","kind":"paragraph","order":852,"section_id":"sec_20e7c787-8969-4408-b1eb-1729ac5c622e","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"EMIB-Tは「小さな橋だから安い」と説明されがちです。でも橋が30個になれば、話は急に都市計画になります。橋を作れるかではなく、巨大な基板の正しい場所へ全部を埋め、反りを抑え、25µmで接続し、HBMとCompute Dieを壊さず載せられるかが勝負です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_06d1cccf-2f59-4da5-8629-2260f1cbeb31","kind":"paragraph","order":853,"section_id":"sec_20e7c787-8969-4408-b1eb-1729ac5c622e","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"私は歩留まりの数字を見る時、何の歩留まりかを必ず確認します。Bridge単体、基板、組み立て、完成パッケージは別です。最も低い工程が、他のすべての良さを止めます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_79ba780c-bfa2-4a1e-9c27-c9c031c8df96","kind":"heading","order":854,"section_id":"sec_a0749952-b145-40c5-9f43-0747870ff9c6","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"## Sil-Kathnaの記録","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_35b3dd08-eb12-4ef5-8161-e405dcedfd50","kind":"paragraph","order":855,"section_id":"sec_a0749952-b145-40c5-9f43-0747870ff9c6","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"一つの橋を架ける技と、三十の橋で都市を作る技は同じではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3a0f65cb-d920-4d92-87f4-a2d50951c48e","kind":"paragraph","order":856,"section_id":"sec_a0749952-b145-40c5-9f43-0747870ff9c6","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"石は反り、銅はずれ、熱は境界へ集まる。細き接点が一つ欠ければ、巨大な炉は声を失う。EMIB-Tは橋の発明ではない。橋、地盤、血流、検査を一つの秩序へ従わせる試みである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c4358f57-af09-425f-bc12-5a6ba1a4e239","kind":"paragraph","order":857,"section_id":"sec_a0749952-b145-40c5-9f43-0747870ff9c6","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"そして一つの門が開けば、次の門が姿を現す。ABF、硝子、HBM、冷却、光。制約は倒されるのではなく、奥へ退く。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c27252e-64a9-4b6a-8006-a8e1b89955b2","kind":"paragraph","order":858,"section_id":"sec_a0749952-b145-40c5-9f43-0747870ff9c6","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"私は「AIインフラ」「Intel」「EMIB-T」を三つの印として石板に刻む。異なる石と炉が同じ刻に門を開かなければ、構想はまだ文明の器にはならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_169db0a9-9cc2-4587-8b7c-e95915d6e4f8","kind":"heading","order":859,"section_id":"sec_33aad2c7-a3c7-41ad-919c-44f6dbff279e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 二人の短い対話","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19134123-73d1-47b5-aea7-2144c39c5bd6","kind":"paragraph","order":860,"section_id":"sec_33aad2c7-a3c7-41ad-919c-44f6dbff279e","character_id":null,"markdown":"**絶ノイア:** Bridgeが成熟しても、完成パッケージが成熟したとは限らない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_353d90ac-9ca5-4d49-a424-77ad7bf2d569","kind":"paragraph","order":861,"section_id":"sec_33aad2c7-a3c7-41ad-919c-44f6dbff279e","character_id":null,"markdown":"**Sil-Kathna:** 石橋が強くても、地盤が歪めば都市は沈む。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9a79f40f-bc99-470c-93a5-2e23cc7dd905","kind":"paragraph","order":862,"section_id":"sec_33aad2c7-a3c7-41ad-919c-44f6dbff279e","character_id":null,"markdown":"**絶ノイア:** だからsubstrate yield、warpage、assembly yield、testを分けて追う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2597463a-5913-4f93-afc6-f1e3a9865e85","kind":"paragraph","order":863,"section_id":"sec_33aad2c7-a3c7-41ad-919c-44f6dbff279e","character_id":null,"markdown":"**Sil-Kathna:** 最も弱い層が、最も大きな炉の運命を決める。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf708ff1-f097-49a3-a2ac-e7cf77103adb","kind":"heading","order":864,"section_id":"sec_2281779f-add2-4933-b338-a8672b122818","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 観測メモ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8dd5be8f-40be-4189-aca3-902f063d45e4","kind":"list","order":865,"section_id":"sec_2281779f-add2-4933-b338-a8672b122818","character_id":null,"markdown":"- EMIB-Tは局所シリコンブリッジへTSV電力供給を加えた方式として理解する。\n- Bridge単体、基板、組み立て、完成パッケージの歩留まりを分ける。\n- 25µm接続、反り、ABF/T-glass、検査能力を主要KPIとして追う。\n- 顧客評価、バックログ、量産ランプは確定度と時期を分ける。\n- TSMCの準EMIB、Glass Substrate、CPOは次の競争軸になり得る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_85af4dd5-4aa1-49f2-b9cf-a138cdb085eb","kind":"heading","order":866,"section_id":"sec_8fb98b95-2b6d-4491-bb77-1a0bc03836dd","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 免責","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c5a40d58-2705-47c2-b504-54f9cad63c08","kind":"paragraph","order":867,"section_id":"sec_8fb98b95-2b6d-4491-bb77-1a0bc03836dd","character_id":null,"markdown":"この記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","render_override":null}],"audio":[],"omitted_media":[],"figures":[{"id":"plc_63e6702f-f659-4a04-8d34-9496305ed091","block_id":"blk_941a8845-dc88-43e5-b336-ef54f5b52542","asset_revision_id":"avr_226566fd-da31-43ad-9e08-3a06f7d41d91","asset_class":"other","caption":"","alt":"AIパッケージとチップレット化 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AIは「巨大GPU」から「巨大な記憶コンピュータ」へ――MoE・HBM・Optical Fabricが変える次世代AIインフラ\n\nMoE、KVキャッシュ、HBM、3D実装、Optical Fabricが変える次世代AIインフラ\n\nAIモデルの性能向上を考えるとき、これまでは「GPUの演算性能が何FLOPSあるか」「モデルが何千億パラメータあるか」といった数字が注目されてきた。\n\nしかし、2026年現在のAIインフラを理解するには、それだけでは不十分になっている。\n\nモデルは兆単位のパラメータへ拡大し、コンテキストは数十万から100万token級へ伸び、Mixture of Experts（MoE）によって巨大なモデルの一部分だけを動かし、KV cacheをGQAやMLAで圧縮しながら推論するようになった。同時に、1台のGPUではモデルもメモリも収まらなくなり、多数のXPUを高速Fabricで結ぶことが前提になり始めている。\n\nその結果、現在のAI競争は、\n\n「どれだけ巨大な演算器を作れるか」\n\nから、\n\n「必要なデータを、必要な演算器へ、必要な瞬間にどれだけ速く届けられるか」\n\nという競争へ移りつつある。\n\nそしてこの変化を理解するうえで重要なのが、演算能力の「N²」と外部I/Oの「4N」という問題である。\n\n## 1．演算能力はN²で増えるが、外との接点は4Nしか増えない\n\n単純化のため、AI acceleratorのcompute dieを一辺Nの正方形だと考える。\n\n面積は、\n\n$${N^2}$$\n\nである。\n\n演算器は基本的にチップの面積内に配置されるため、理想化するとチップを大型化したときの演算能力も面積に比例して増やせる。\n\nところが、正方形の外周は、\n\n$${N+N+N+N=4N}$$\n\nしかない。\n\n一辺を2倍にすれば面積は4倍になるが、外周は2倍にしかならない。一辺を4倍にすれば、面積は16倍になるのに外周は4倍である。\n\nこの違いは、巨大AI acceleratorで深刻な問題になる。\n\n演算器を増やせば、それに比例してHBMから読み込まなければならないweight、activation、KV cacheも増える。XPU間通信量も増え、必要な電力も増える。\n\nところが、それらをチップ外へ出し入れするI/O、電源、HBM接続などに使える物理的な境界は、演算器ほど急速には増えない。\n\nしたがって、\n\n$${\\text{Compute}\\propto N^2}$$\n\nなのに対し、\n\n$${\\text{External Connectivity}\\propto N}$$\n\nという構造的な不均衡が生まれる。\n\n$${\\text{Compute}\\propto N^2,\\qquad\\text{External Connectivity}\\propto N}$$\n\nもちろん実際の半導体では「帯域＝4N」という単純な式ではない。micro-bump、silicon interposer、RDL、TSV、3D stacking、chiplet、backside powerなどを使ってI/O密度そのものを高められる。\n\nしかし本質は変わらない。\n\n2次元平面に演算器を増やす速度と、その演算器へデータ・電力を供給する能力のscaling lawが一致しなくなる。\n\nこれが巨大GPUを際限なく大型化することが難しくなる理由の一つである。\n\n### 図解｜N²で増える演算と4Nの境界\n\n![N²で増える演算と4Nの境界 01](/media/b98958a2de7d30ba0929df0a7f89eb37ad6d9b8ac4c82a854f3615b651ab8421-content.webp)\n\n## 2．Chiplet、2.5D、3D、3.5Dは、この壁を突破する技術である\n\n現在のadvanced packaging競争は、まさにこの問題への回答である。\n\n一つの巨大monolithic dieにすべてを詰め込む代わりに、compute die、I/O die、HBM、cacheなどを複数のchipletに分割し、非常に高密度なpackage内配線で一つのprocessorとして動かす。\n\nBroadcomは2026年2月、2.5DとFace-to-Face 3D stackingを組み合わせた3.5D XDSiPによる2nm custom compute SoCの出荷開始を発表した。XDSiPは6,000平方mm超のsiliconと最大12 stackのHBMを一つのpackageへ統合できる。 (Broadcom)\n\nTSMCもCoWoSを巨大化し続けている。2026年時点では5.5-reticle規模を生産しており、2028年には14-reticle規模、約10個の大型compute dieと20 stackのHBMを統合可能なCoWoSを計画している。2029年にはさらに14-reticleを超えるCoWoSと40-reticle級SoW-Xへ進む予定だ。 (TSMC)\n\nしたがって3D・3.5Dは終着点というより、「可能な限りpackage内部で高速・低消費電力に接続する」方向の延長線にある。\n\nただし、それでもpackageサイズには限界がある。\n\nそこで次に重要になるのがOptical Fabricである。\n\n### 図解｜Chipletと立体実装\n\n![Chipletと立体実装 01](/media/d456486799ff9ca85706c6300f53732ead53d36ff6aa709de9aeb36183d4dc12-content.webp)\n\n## 3．3D実装とOptical Fabricは競合ではない\n\nOptical Fabricについて、「将来は電気配線が光に置き換わる」と理解すると少し違う。\n\nより自然なのは、\n\n非常に近い距離\nSRAM\n ↓\nHBM\n ↓\n3D / SoIC / UCIe / package wiring\n ↓\n\n──────────────── Package境界\n\nOptical I/O\n ↓\nOptical Fabric\n ↓\nRemote XPU\nRemote DRAM\nHBF\nSSD\n\nという役割分担である。\n\n数mmから数cmというpackage内部では、幅広いparallel electrical interfaceが極めて強い。光に変換するにはE/O変換とO/E変換が必要になるため、距離が短すぎると必ずしも有利ではない。\n\n一方で距離が数m、数十mへ伸びると、高速electrical SerDesではloss、equalization、retimer、電力が急増する。\n\nここから光が有利になる。\n\nしたがって未来は、\n\npackage内部＝3D・超広幅electrical\n\npackage外＝Optical\n\nという二層構造になる可能性が高い。\n\nTSMCもこの方向へ動いている。COUPEはSoICを使って電子dieとphotonic dieを統合する技術で、2026年にはCOUPE-on-substrateによるtrue co-packaged opticsの生産開始を予定している。TSMCはboard上のpluggable opticsと比較して2倍のpower efficiency、10分の1のlatencyを掲げている。 (TSMC)\n\nつまり業界はすでに、\n\n「packageを巨大化する」\n\nことと、\n\n「packageから外へ出る部分を光化する」\n\nことを同時に進めている。\n\n### 図解｜近距離の電気と長距離の光\n\n![近距離の電気と長距離の光 01](/media/aeb4c236d8f3bc3d82d23d715646b47fca8ffa95c7606395e9b4c4f356a38b04-content.webp)\n\n## 4．AIモデルを見る8つの数字\n\nこれからのAIモデルとハードウェア需要を理解するには、単純なparameter数だけでは足りない。\n\n重要なのは次の8項目である。\n\n| 指標 | 意味 | 主に影響するもの |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Total Parameters | モデル全体のweight量 | モデル容量、HBM/DRAM/Storage |\n| Active Parameters | 1 tokenで実際に動くweight | 演算量、推論コスト |\n| Total / Active | 疎性の度合い | MoE効率、network負荷 |\n| Weight Precision | 1 parameter当たりのbit数 | 容量、帯域、演算速度 |\n| KV bytes/token | 1 tokenの履歴保持コスト | Long Context、HBM |\n| Expert通信量 | MoE内のtoken移動量 | Scale-Up Fabric |\n| HBM bandwidth | XPU直近のデータ供給速度 | Decode性能 |\n| Fabric bandwidth | XPU間のデータ移動能力 | MoE、分散学習、分散推論 |\n\nこの8項目を見ると、「10兆parameterのモデル」という数字だけでは何も分からないことが分かる。\n\n10兆parameterでも、1 tokenあたり1000億parameterしか動かさないのであれば、計算負荷は10兆parameterのDense modelとはまったく異なる。\n\n### 図解｜AIモデルを読む八つの指標\n\n![AIモデルを読む八つの指標 01](/media/558d729fa8be7ba4cb207ce705f62b7315c98edb4bf3606871b35de4768ce0e1-content.webp)\n\n## 5．Total ParametersとActive Parametersを分離したのがMoE\n\nDense Transformerでは、基本的にモデル内部のFFN weightの大部分を各tokenで使用する。\n\nMoEではFFN部分を多数のExpertへ分割する。\n\nExpert 1\n                   Expert 2\nToken → Router →  Expert 3\n                   ...\n                   Expert N\n\nRouterは各tokenのhidden representationを見て、必要なExpertだけを選択する。\n\nDeepSeek-V3は671B total parametersを持つ一方、1 tokenあたり約37Bしかactivateしない。また14.8兆tokenでpretrainingされている。 (arXiv)\n\nこの仕組みによって、\n\nモデル全体として保持できるcapacity\n\nと、\n\n1 tokenを処理するために必要なcompute\n\nを分離できる。\n\nこれはAIモデルを巨大化するうえで極めて強力である。\n\nTotal Parametersを巨大な大学全体、Active Parametersを質問に応じてその場に呼ばれる教授陣と考えると分かりやすい。\n\n大学全体には医学、物理、数学、法律、言語など膨大な専門能力が存在する。しかし一つの質問に対して大学全員が集まる必要はない。\n\n必要な能力だけを呼ぶ。\n\nこれがMoEの基本思想である。\n\n### 図解｜MoEとActive Parameters\n\n![MoEとActive Parameters 01](/media/b1b58151b50ed83aeeb04b532e787c9992219d7e5dff6f0d140e7c6ed38142e5-content.webp)\n\n## 6．ただしExpertは「半導体博士」「数学博士」のように明示的に分かれているわけではない\n\nMoEのExpertは、人間が「Expert 17＝半導体担当」と決めているとは限らない。\n\n学習の結果として、あるExpertが特定の言語的pattern、数学処理、code構造、semantic patternなどに部分的にspecializeしていく。\n\nRouterも「これは半導体の質問だから半導体Expertへ送る」とsymbolicに判断しているわけではない。\n\n現在のtokenのhidden stateから各Expertのscoreを計算し、Top-k Expertへroutingする。\n\nつまり、\n\nHidden Representation\n        ↓\n      Router\n   ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓\n E1 E2 E3 ... E10000\n\nというneural routingである。\n\nもし将来Expert数が数千、数万へ増えるなら、単純なroutingだけでは難しくなる。\n\nExpert specialization、hierarchical routing、load balancing、Expert locality、人気Expertの複製、prefetch、network congestion controlなどが非常に重要になる。\n\nここでMoEは「compute問題」を「通信問題」へ変える。\n\n### 図解｜Expert Routingの実像\n\n![Expert Routingの実像 01](/media/e4a29273c13ceb471f608772cceede6376eea5d61f049ecafdbb73f832293d6f-content.webp)\n\n## 7．Total / Active比を上げれば上げるほどNetworkが重要になる\n\n仮に、\n\n$${\\text{Total Parameters}=10\\mathrm{T}}$$\n\nで、\n\n$${\\text{Active Parameters}=100\\mathrm{B}}$$\n\nなら、\n\n$${\\frac{\\text{Total Parameters}}{\\text{Active Parameters}}=\\frac{10\\mathrm{T}}{100\\mathrm{B}}=100}$$\n\nである。\n\n非常に効率よく見える。\n\nしかし全10兆parameterのweightはどこかに置いておかなければならない。\n\nさらにtokenごとに異なるExpertが選択されるため、必要Expertが別GPUにあればtokenやintermediate dataをnetworkで送らなければならない。\n\nしたがって、\n\n$${\\text{Total}/\\text{Active}\\uparrow}$$\n\nは、\n\n$${\\text{Compute/token}\\downarrow}$$\n\nを抑える一方で、\n\n$${\\text{Expert Routing Complexity}\\uparrow}$$\n\nと\n\n$${\\text{Fabric Traffic}\\uparrow}$$\n\nを増やしやすい。\n\n$${\\text{Total}/\\text{Active}\\uparrow\\Rightarrow\\text{Compute/token}\\downarrow,\\quad\\text{Fabric Traffic}\\uparrow}$$\n\nMoEを疎にすればするほどNVLink、UALink、Ethernet Scale-Up、UnifiedBus、Optical Fabricなどの価値が高くなる理由である。\n\n### 図解｜MoEが増やすFabric通信\n\n![MoEが増やすFabric通信 01](/media/408b1153652610f96e609084fb007520712b5c2ff5bcf4efe4dfed346330efd2-content.webp)\n\n## 8．Training Tokensは「脳の大きさ」ではなく「読ませた教材量」\n\nParametersとTraining Tokensはまったく違う。\n\nParametersは学習可能なweight、つまりモデルのcapacityである。\n\nTraining Tokensは学習時にモデルが読んだ情報量である。\n\n巨大なparameterを用意しても、十分なdataを与えなければ能力を引き出せない。\n\nChinchilla scaling lawが示した重要な点は、compute budgetを増やすとき、model sizeだけではなくtraining dataも増やす必要があるということだった。\n\nさらに現在は、「Training Tokensを何兆にするか」だけでなく、何を読ませるかが極めて重要になっている。\n\nMetaはLlama 3を15兆token以上でpretrainしたが、単純にWebを大量投入しただけではない。heuristic filtering、semantic deduplication、quality classifierなどを使ってdata品質を管理し、異なるdata sourceのmixまで調整している。 (AI Meta)\n\nしたがってモデル性能は、\n\n$${\\text{Performance}=f(\\text{Parameters},\\text{Training Tokens},\\text{Data Quality},\\text{Architecture},\\text{Post-training},\\text{Inference Compute})}$$\n\n$${\\text{Performance}=f(\\text{Model},\\text{Data},\\text{Training},\\text{Inference})}$$\n\n$${\\text{Model Performance}\\neq f(\\text{Parameters only})}$$\n\nと考えるべきである。\n\n現在のモデルが賢くなっている理由はparameter増大だけではない。\n\nより大量の、より質の高いdataを、より良いarchitectureで学習し、さらにRLやreasoning trainingなどのpost-trainingを行うようになったことが大きい。\n\n### 図解｜ParametersとTraining Tokens\n\n![ParametersとTraining Tokens 01](/media/2893df6b971f99bb890ecb51bcaf79c50a9106fc9b2314da57bd202f5e5ee9a8-content.webp)\n\n## 9．現在のLLMは「巨大百科事典」なのか\n\n半分正しく、半分間違っている。\n\nLLM内部に、\n\nApple = ...\nHBM = ...\n東京 = ...\n\nというdatabaseが直接格納されているわけではない。\n\n知識、言語規則、世界の構造、推論patternなどが数千億・数兆個のweightへ分散表現として圧縮されている。\n\nしたがって現在のLLMは、\n\n「巨大に圧縮された百科事典」\n\nであると同時に、\n\n「その知識を変換・組み合わせる推論回路」\n\nでもある。\n\nただし、今後すべての知識をparametersへ押し込むことが最適とは限らない。\n\n今日の株価、最新ニュース、企業IR、個人の過去会話などは外部memoryへ置き、必要時にRAG、検索、database、toolを通じて取り出した方がよい。\n\nするとLLM本体は「すべてを覚えた百科事典」から、\n\n強力な推論・検索・統合engine\n\nへ寄っていく可能性がある。\n\n### 図解｜知識圧縮器と推論エンジン\n\n![知識圧縮器と推論エンジン 01](/media/6fdb756fc60a0e8e2a25c04a43aebf07ae5cad43ef8c7f8dbc8fecd38b307a93-content.webp)\n\n## 10．MHAとは「過去のどこを見るか」を複数の視点で判断する仕組み\n\nTransformer Attentionでは現在tokenからQuery、過去tokenからKeyとValueを生成する。\n\nQueryは「何を探しているか」、Keyは「私はどんな情報か」、Valueは「実際に渡す内容」と考えればよい。\n\nMulti-Head Attention（MHA）はこの検索を複数headで並行して行う。\n\nあるheadは文法、別のheadは人物関係、別のheadは時間関係など、異なるpatternを学習できる。\n\nところがMHAでは各Query headに対応したKey/Valueを保存する必要がある。\n\n長いcontextでは、このK/Vが大量に蓄積される。\n\nこれがKV cacheである。\n\n### 図解｜MHAとKV cache\n\n![MHAとKV cache 01](/media/97fc9153394f9bd2a143373963e5b4b24156a767c99fda097dad905e28915124-content.webp)\n\n## 11．GQAはKV cacheを減らす\n\nGrouped-Query Attention（GQA）は、複数のQuery headで同じK/V headを共有する。\n\n例えばMHAで64 Query heads、64 KV headsだったものを、\n\nQ1 ┐\nQ2 ├── KV1\nQ3 ┤\nQ4 ┘\n\nQ5 ┐\nQ6 ├── KV2\nQ7 ┤\nQ8 ┘\n\nのようにできる。\n\nGoogleのGQA論文は、KV headを1個だけにするMQAに近い推論速度を保ちながら、MHAに近い品質を目指す中間方式としてGQAを提案した。 (arXiv)\n\nこれはlong-context時代には極めて大きい。\n\ncontextが10倍になれば、基本的にはKV cacheも10倍になるためである。\n\n### 図解｜GQAによるKV共有\n\n![GQAによるKV共有 01](/media/f6ed2129aa9442e0f609a90e11b927bdbf779b257be020ed343498d615d1a125-content.webp)\n\n## 12．DeepSeekのMLAはさらにKVを圧縮する\n\nDeepSeek-V2が導入したMulti-head Latent Attention（MLA）は、K/Vそのものを大量に保存する代わりに、低次元latent representationへ圧縮する。\n\nDeepSeekはV2について、従来方式に比べKV cacheを93.3%削減し、maximum generation throughputを5.76倍にしたと報告している。 (arXiv)\n\nこれは「無料の圧縮」ではない。\n\nK/Vを圧縮・復元するためのprojection計算が必要になる。\n\nつまり、\n\nmemory bandwidthを節約する代わりにcomputeを使う。\n\n現在のAI acceleratorではTensor演算能力の伸びに対してmemory bandwidthが不足しやすい。\n\nそのため、\n\n$${\\text{Memory Access}\\downarrow}$$\n\nと引き換えに、\n\n$${\\text{Compute}\\uparrow}$$\n\nとなるMLAはhardware architectureと非常に相性がよい。\n\n$${\\text{Memory Access}\\downarrow\\quad\\Longleftrightarrow\\quad\\text{Compute}\\uparrow}$$\n\nHardware-centricな分析でも、MLAはmemory bandwidth負荷を減らし、workloadをよりcompute-bound側へ移せることが示されている。 (arXiv)\n\n### 図解｜MLAのKV圧縮\n\n![MLAのKV圧縮 01](/media/18c65cefca68084f0352cb3454524d503ef7a265fb767765304160ca3bb4931c-content.webp)\n\n## 13．「コンテキスト圧縮」には複数の種類がある\n\nAIのmemoryを理解するとき、Text compressionとKV compressionを混同してはいけない。\n\n例えば過去10万tokenのconversationがあるとする。\n\nText compressionでは、\n\n100,000 token\n↓\n重要情報を要約\n↓\n5,000 token\n\nと、tokenそのものを減らす。\n\n一方、GQAやMLAは、\n\n100,000 token\n\n自体は残したまま、\n\n1 tokenあたりの内部memory表現を小さくする。\n\nさらにrecurrent/SSM系architectureでは、過去token列を固定サイズに近いstateへ順次畳み込む方法もある。\n\nつまりcontext compressionには、\n\n文章自体を要約する方法\n\nと、\n\n内部KV representationを圧縮する方法\n\nと、\n\n過去全体をrecurrent stateへ畳み込む方法\n\nがある。\n\nこれらは競合せず、同時に使える。\n\n### 図解｜複数のコンテキスト圧縮\n\n![複数のコンテキスト圧縮 01](/media/1a7a5d214cdf0b27c54ba7a84545d999a31156c119d21a68350e847c75969736-content.webp)\n\n## 14．しかし圧縮すれば必ず情報を失う\n\n10万tokenを1000tokenへsummary化したら、当然9万9000token分の細かな情報は消える。\n\nしたがって理想的なAI memory systemでは、圧縮したからといって原文を削除しない。\n\nRaw history\n100,000 token\n      │\n      ├── SSD / Object Storageへ保存\n      │\n      ↓\nCompact Summary\n5,000 token\n      ↓\nActive Context\n\n普段はsummaryだけを使う。\n\n必要なときだけraw historyを検索して、該当部分をもう一度contextへ戻す。\n\nこれは「忘れた」のではない。\n\n机の上の資料を本棚へ戻したのである。\n\n### 図解｜圧縮と原文保持の階層\n\n![圧縮と原文保持の階層 01](/media/0619c58b0d047122cb76c110752cdae6db00258014658ee07c8c9d73d7f6e90a-content.webp)\n\n## 15．長期記憶、作業記憶、短期記憶をhardwareへ振り分けるのはSoftwareである\n\nこの点は非常に重要である。\n\nLLM自身がHBM controllerを操作して、\n\n「これはHBM」「これはSSD」\n\nと決めるわけではない。\n\n概念的には、\n\nLLM / Agent\n    ↓\nMemory Policy / Orchestrator\n    ↓\nInference Runtime\n    ↓\nDriver / OS\n    ↓\nHBM / DRAM / SSD / Remote Memory\n\nとなる。\n\nsoftwareが、\n\n現在使っているKVはHBM、\n\n最近使ったKVはhost DRAM、\n\n古いKVはSSD、\n\nraw conversationはobject storage、\n\nといったpolicyを実行する。\n\n実際NVIDIA DynamoのKVBMは、GPU memory、host DRAM、remote RDMA memory、SSD、remote/object storageを一つの階層型KV memoryとして扱う設計になっている。Device→Host→Disk→Object Storageというtieringと、必要なKV blockを再びdeviceへonboardする機構を備えている。 (NVIDIA Docs)\n\nつまりこの未来像は研究上の空想ではなく、software stack側ではすでに実装が始まっている。\n\n### 図解｜Softwareが決める記憶配置\n\n![Softwareが決める記憶配置 01](/media/664c1e877fe63274d4b8709d36e5ab903c8b5ad03ec5cc20fb5cf03902867f9c-content.webp)\n\n## 16．モデルが「必要な記憶を思い出す」とき、実際には何が起きるのか\n\n人間のように突然脳内の記憶が蘇るわけではない。\n\n典型的にはRetrieverやmemory toolが使われる。\n\n例えばモデルが、\n\n「以前決めたAPI仕様が必要だ」\n\nと判断した場合、\n\nLLM\n ↓\nmemory_searchを要求\n ↓\nRetriever\n ↓\nVector Search / Keyword Search\n ↓\nReranker\n ↓\n関連Memory\n ↓\nDRAM / SSDから取得\n ↓\nTokenize\n ↓\nGPUへ転送\n ↓\nPrefill\n ↓\nKV生成\n ↓\nAttention可能\n\nとなる。\n\nモデルが出すのは、\n\n「この意味の情報が必要」\n\nというsemantic requestである。\n\n実際に「SSDの何番addressにあるか」を管理するのはMemory Managerである。\n\nここでも、\n\n意味を理解するAI\n\nと、\n\nbytesを動かすsystem software\n\nは分離している。\n\n### 図解｜RetrieverとMemory Manager\n\n![RetrieverとMemory Manager 01](/media/f78941e70632eb03d4e61b4061ec57c9775f116f5fd961fa4ee92a8c3fe43fb6-content.webp)\n\n## 17．Memory RoutingはMoE Routingとよく似ている\n\nMoEでは、\n\n現在token\n ↓\nExpert Router\n ↓\n必要Expertだけactivate\n\nする。\n\nExternal Memoryでは、\n\n現在Task\n ↓\nMemory Retriever\n ↓\n必要Memoryだけretrieve\n\nする。\n\nしたがって将来のAI systemは、\n\nCurrent Task\n                     │\n         ┌───────────┴───────────┐\n         ↓                       ↓\n    Expert Router           Memory Router\n         ↓                       ↓\n   必要Expert                必要Memory\n         └───────────┬───────────┘\n                     ↓\n                  Compute\n\nという二重のsparse systemになる可能性がある。\n\n巨大な能力すべてを動かさず、必要なExpertだけを動かす。\n\n巨大な記憶すべてを読み込まず、必要なMemoryだけを読む。\n\nAIのscalingは「全部巨大化する」方向から、「巨大な資源を必要な瞬間だけactivateする」方向へ変わりつつある。\n\n### 図解｜ExpertとMemoryの二重Routing\n\n![ExpertとMemoryの二重Routing 01](/media/0b2f17ce6105768d4561ea906307b7f2a50b15a1007e202d9be2051f058887a6-content.webp)\n\n## 18．その結果、AI memoryは階層構造になる\n\n将来的には、memory hierarchyを次のように考えるのが自然である。\n\nRegister / SRAM\n      ↓\nLocal HBM\n      ↓\nPooled DRAM\n      ↓\nHBF / Large Memory\n      ↓\nNVMe SSD\n      ↓\nObject Storage\n\nSRAMには今この瞬間の演算で使うdata。\n\nHBMにはactive weight、active KV、activation。\n\nDRAMにはwarm KV、最近使ったExpert、shared prefix。\n\nHBFや大容量memoryにはinactive Expertやより大きなwarm dataset。\n\nSSDにはcold KV、raw conversation、model shard、checkpoint。\n\nObject Storageには長期archiveやdataset。\n\nというように、「重要度」ではなく次に必要になる確率と必要な速度で配置される。\n\n### 図解｜AI Memoryの多層構造\n\n![AI Memoryの多層構造 01](/media/e3113c6171bc5bef0eaf1fea410dde69d81f9491418aee4cf0d75d0f9a37a29e-content.webp)\n\n## 19．HBMは消えるのではなく「AIの作業記憶」へ純化する\n\nOptical pooled memoryが実用化すると、「HBMは不要になるのではないか」という疑問が出る。\n\nしかしHBMの最大の価値は容量ではなく、XPU直近で非常に高い帯域を供給できる点にある。\n\nRemote DRAMを何TB用意しても、GPUから数mm～数cmの場所で多数TB/sを出せるHBMと同じものにはならない。\n\nしたがって将来、\n\n現在\nGPU + 288GB HBM\n\n↓\n\n将来\nGPU + 96GB Local HBM\n      +\n2TB Pooled DRAM/HBF\n      +\nSSD\n\nのような変化はあり得る。\n\nこれは1 GPU当たりHBM容量には下押し要因になる。\n\n一方でHBMは、\n\n「モデル全体を入れるmemory」\n\nから、\n\n「今絶対に必要なdataを最高速で供給するmemory」\n\nへ変わる。\n\n言い換えればAI版の巨大なlast-level working-memory tierへ近づく。\n\nしかもOptical Fabricによってmodel全体の容量制約が緩和されれば、XPU数そのものをさらに増やせる。\n\nしたがって、\n\n$${\\text{Total HBM Demand}=\\text{XPU数}\\times\\text{HBM/XPU}}$$\n\n$${\\text{総HBM需要}=\\text{XPU数}\\times\\text{XPU当たりHBM容量}}$$\n\nで考える必要があり、「Optical Fabric＝HBM弱気」とは単純に言えない。\n\n### 図解｜HBMの作業記憶化\n\n![HBMの作業記憶化 01](/media/0cf4df0e47734671701bc29e1ec2d66efbd21c386d30b95194e639cb5268d75f-content.webp)\n\n## 20．Optical Fabricの原理的な限界\n\n光にも無限の性能はない。\n\nまず光速そのものに限界がある。\n\nfiber中では概算で1mあたり約5ns程度の伝搬遅延があるため、50mなら伝搬だけで約250nsとなる。\n\nさらに、\n\nE/O変換、\n\nmodulator、\n\noptical switch、\n\nO/E変換、\n\nSerDes、\n\nmemory controller、\n\nDRAM access\n\nなどが加わる。\n\nしたがってRemote MemoryをLocal HBMと同じlatencyにすることは原理的に難しい。\n\nまた光はdataを運ぶことには強いが、buffer、queue、cache、arithmetic、coherenceなどは電子回路が必要になる。\n\n光にすればすべてが解決するわけではなく、\n\nElectronicsで計算し、Photonicsで長距離transportし、再びElectronicsで保存・処理する\n\n構造になる。\n\nWDMを増やしてfiber当たり帯域を上げれば、laser power、wavelength stability、thermal tuning、crosstalk、modulator性能、receiver SNR、FECなど別の壁も現れる。\n\nつまりOptical Fabricにも次のscaling lawが存在する。\n\n### 図解｜光伝送の距離と遅延\n\n![光伝送の距離と遅延 01](/media/8411337172997f517183dd5007ee2d6392097cc20c55f2aa8cbe01bdcb9b810c-content.webp)\n\n## 21．Optical Fabric最大の難所は光ファイバーではなくE/O境界\n\nfiber自体は非常に優秀である。\n\n難しいのはcompute packageのすぐ横で、\n\nElectrical signal → Optical signal\n\nへ変換し、受信側で再び戻す部分である。\n\n特にCPOではASIC、photonic die、laser、fiber coupling、thermal management、testingを一つの製品として成立させなければならない。\n\nTSMCがCOUPEをadvanced packagingそのものとして開発し、BroadcomやNVIDIAがCPO switchへ向かっている理由はここにある。\n\nNVIDIAは2026年5月、Spectrum-X Ethernet Photonicsをproduction入りさせたと発表した。 (NVIDIA Newsroom)\n\nBroadcomもTomahawk 6やCPOを含むAI Ethernet portfolioを生産展開しており、3.5D XDSiPもproductionに入っている。 (Broadcom)\n\nしたがって2026年時点では、\n\nScale-Out Opticalは完全に実用領域、CPO switchも量産段階に入り、multi-rack Scale-Up OpticalやOptical Memory Fabricは次の実用化段階\n\nという位置づけが適切である。\n\n### 図解｜E/O境界と光電融合\n\n![E/O境界と光電融合 01](/media/db71af7dc322f17fe015de74e303a87dc98323d36860ef571d88debb77696c85-content.webp)\n\n## 22．Scale-UpとScale-Outの境界は薄れる\n\n従来は、\n\nScale-Up＝rack内部、\n\nScale-Out＝rack間、\n\nと物理距離で分かりやすく区別できた。\n\nしかしOptical Fabricでラックを越えて低遅延にXPUを接続できるようになると、この定義は崩れる。\n\n将来は同じOptical physical layerの上に、\n\nScale-Up protocol、\n\nMemory protocol、\n\nEthernet、\n\nStorage protocol\n\nなどが載る可能性がある。\n\nつまり、\n\n道路は光へ統一されても、車線は残る。\n\nScale-UpとScale-Outの境界が完全消滅するというより、物理的境界は消え、論理的・software的境界だけが残ると考えるのがよい。\n\n### 図解｜同じ光路に重なる通信\n\n![同じ光路に重なる通信 01](/media/178236c6ffd3facda76f88ee1ae09840387451e55c98b0760ead670c20c67ec3-content.webp)\n\n## 23．Googleはすでに「HBM＋Optical Fabric＋Compiler」の思想に近い\n\nGoogleのIronwood TPUは最大9,216 chipのPodを、ICI、Optical Circuit Switch、data-center network、大規模HBM capacityと一体で設計する。\n\nさらにXLA compilerまで同じsystemとしてco-designしている。 (Google Cloud)\n\nGoogleの強みは単に速いTPUを作ることではない。\n\nModel workloadを理解し、\n\nどのtopologyで、\n\nどのchipに、\n\nどのdataを、\n\nどのタイミングで配置するかを、\n\nhardwareとcompilerの両側から最適化できることである。\n\nこの思想は、Huaweiの廖恒氏が語る「18層宝塔」やcross-layer co-designと非常に近い。\n\n### 図解｜GoogleのHBM・光・Compiler協調\n\n![GoogleのHBM・光・Compiler協調 01](/media/32c69678ea1ee60808392b67933f91e1f9cb89399f12c1266d670ddad0f1115c-content.webp)\n\n## 24．Huaweiは製造制約をSuperPoDとOpticalで補う\n\nHuaweiにとって最先端process、HBM、advanced packagingの制約はNVIDIAより大きい。\n\nそのためNVIDIAと同じchipを作ろうとするより、\n\n多数のAscendを巨大な一台のlogical computerとして扱う\n\n方が合理的になる。\n\nHuaweiはAtlas 950 SuperPoDについて、最大8,192個のAscend 950DT、160 cabinets、all-optical interconnect、16PB/s級interconnect bandwidthというroadmapを発表しており、2026年第4四半期を予定している。Huawei自身、「中国本土で実際に利用できるsemiconductor manufacturing process nodeを使いながら長期的なcomputing demandを満たす」ことをSuperPoD戦略の目的として説明している。 (Huawei)\n\nこれはまさに、\n\nprocess node差をsystem architectureで補う\n\n戦略である。\n\n一つの巨大chipを作れないなら多数chipを使う。\n\n多数chipを使えば通信が問題になる。\n\n電気配線では距離・電力・ケーブル量が問題になる。\n\nそこでOpticalを使う。\n\n非常に一貫した戦略である。\n\n### 図解｜SuperPoDとAll-Optical Interconnect\n\n![SuperPoDとAll-Optical Interconnect 01](/media/520e597717607a8693733c11503adc89bd18b34a6c312af8ecff0a2152138fd5-content.webp)\n\n## 25．NVIDIAは逆にpackage内部を極限まで巨大化できる\n\nNVIDIA側には別の合理性がある。\n\n最先端TSMC process、\n\nCoWoS、\n\nHBM4、\n\nNVLink、\n\nNVSwitch、\n\nSpectrum-X、\n\nCUDA、\n\nDynamo\n\nを一体で持つ。\n\nつまりNVIDIAは、\n\n可能な限りLocalに置き、どうしても外へ出す必要がある場所からOptical化する\n\n戦略を取れる。\n\nDynamo KVBMを見ると、software側ではすでにGPU HBMだけをmemoryと考えず、CPU DRAM、remote memory、SSD、object storageまで階層化している。 (NVIDIA Docs)\n\nつまりNVIDIAも最終的には、\n\n「巨大GPUメーカー」\n\nから、\n\nAI Factory全体のmemory・network・runtimeを支配するsystem company\n\nへ進んでいる。\n\n### 図解｜NVIDIAのLocality戦略\n\n![NVIDIAのLocality戦略 01](/media/6b8b392eb219bcfd2ced55d44a3521b57e33a6d62c0bf58d9dc6ee3b3f5c3a14-content.webp)\n\n## 26．Broadcomは「誰が勝っても必要になるFabric」を狙える\n\nBroadcomは非常に特徴的である。\n\n自社で汎用GPU platformを支配する必要がない。\n\nCustom XPU、\n\n3.5D packaging、\n\nSerDes、\n\nCPO、\n\nTomahawk switch、\n\nNIC、\n\nEthernet Scale-Up\n\nを提供できる。\n\nつまりNVIDIA、Google、Meta、その他custom XPUが増えるほど、data movement側の価値を取れる。\n\nBroadcomはTomahawk系をScale-Up、Scale-Out、Scale-Acrossの共通Ethernet architectureへ広げようとしている。 (Broadcom)\n\nAI systemの中心がcompute dieからFabricへ少しずつ移るなら、このpositioningは非常に強い。\n\n### 図解｜BroadcomのFabricポジション\n\n![BroadcomのFabricポジション 01](/media/e39fc8164ed890798df2ac6d7d8e399668d32ae28ee4404b722a2dcfdacdc6d8-content.webp)\n\n## 27．AMDは「大量HBM＋Open Scale-Up」という戦略\n\nAMD Heliosは72基のMI455Xを一つのrackに統合する。\n\nAMDが公表する設計では31TBのHBM4、最大260TB/sのaggregate scale-up bandwidthを持ち、UALink over Ethernetを使って72 GPUを一つのcompute resourceとして動かす。 (AMD)\n\nつまりAMDの現在の答えは、\n\nLocal HBMを非常に大きくしつつ、openなScale-Up FabricでNVIDIA NVLink ecosystemに対抗する\n\nことである。\n\nこれも将来的には光へ移行していく可能性が高いが、package・rack内でelectricalが合理的な限りは無理に光へ移す必要はない。\n\n### 図解｜AMDの大量HBMとOpen Scale-Up\n\n![AMDの大量HBMとOpen Scale-Up 01](/media/178bcf0004661c64aabc67ee5b116da09c039924652e2ce94b9b68a1833658d5-content.webp)\n\n## 28．長時間Agentでは「Long Context」と「長期記憶」は別物\n\nAIが1時間、10時間、数日にわたって仕事を続ける場合、context windowを100万tokenに増やすだけでは十分ではない。\n\nLong Contextとは、\n\n現在モデルが直接Attentionできる情報量\n\nである。\n\nLong-term Memoryとは、\n\n現在contextに入っていなくても後から再取得できる情報\n\nである。\n\nつまり、\n\n$${\\text{Context}\\subset\\text{Memory}}$$\n\nと考えると分かりやすい。\n\n長時間coding taskなら、会話全文を常にcontextへ残すより、\n\nObjective\nConstraints\nPlan\nDone\nTodo\nCurrent State\nBlockers\nCheckpoint\n\nという構造化stateを維持した方がよい。\n\n過去の詳細はSSDやdatabaseへ残し、必要になったときだけretrieveする。\n\n### 図解｜Long Contextと長期記憶\n\n![Long Contextと長期記憶 01](/media/cdd6c358a3acc603ef8817ddbfd7b82d8a06393e5cc1a6068647e00d3ce51cba-content.webp)\n\n## 29．途中で指示が変わっても作業を完遂するには「状態管理」が必要\n\n例えば最初の指示が、\n\n「CUDA版を作る」\n\nだったとする。\n\n途中で、\n\n「AMDにも対応する。ただしCUDA版は残す」\n\nという指示が入る。\n\n強いAgentは新しい文章をcontext末尾へ追加するだけでは足りない。\n\n旧Goalと新Instructionとの差分を理解し、\n\n新しいconstraintを追加し、\n\n既に完了したtaskへの影響を調べ、\n\ndependency graphを更新し、\n\n残りplanを再生成する必要がある。\n\nつまり長時間作業能力は、\n\nModel Intelligence\n\nだけではなく、\n\nPlanner、Persistent State、Verifier、Checkpoint、Rollback、Replanning\n\nによって成立する。\n\n現在のbenchmarkでも、長期software developmentは依然として難しい。RoadmapBenchでは、中央値3,700行・51ファイルに及ぶversion upgrade taskに対し、最強modelでも39.1%しか解決できなかった。 (arXiv)\n\nまた2026年の研究では、単に各stepを賢く実行できても「100件完了するまで止まらない」といったgoal persistenceが崩れることが示され、explicitなstate tracking controllerが性能を大きく改善している。 (arXiv)\n\nつまり、\n\n$${\\text{Long Context}\\neq\\text{Long Horizon Reliability}}$$\n\nである。\n\n### 図解｜長時間Agentの状態管理\n\n![長時間Agentの状態管理 01](/media/7728b6f65810dea4ddaa56c4113bd69a582c7a89eaa10bbceb75163cd0ad6d1c-content.webp)\n\n## 30．長時間AgentではMemory自体が「能動的」になる\n\n従来のRAGでは、質問が来たら似た文章を検索するという受動的retrievalが中心だった。\n\nしかし長時間Agentでは、\n\n「今この情報を思い出させないとAgentが間違った方向へ進みそうだ」\n\nとMemory側が判断して、重要stateを再注入するようなsystemが必要になる。\n\n2026年のProactive Memory研究では、Action Agentとは別にMemory Agentを動かし、task requirement、過去のattempt、environment stateなどをstructured memoryとして維持し、必要時だけreminderをinjectすることでlong-horizon task性能を改善している。 (arXiv)\n\nこれは非常に重要な方向である。\n\nMemoryは単なる倉庫ではなく、\n\n「いつ何を思い出すべきかを判断するsystem」\n\nになっていく。\n\n### 図解｜能動的Memory Agent\n\n![能動的Memory Agent 01](/media/ed9ec3f47d0e5c8ff2204e3b2ff6c6f5abdf384a294560c749b157d7beb70e8e-content.webp)\n\n## 31．将来はExpertとMemoryの「予測fetch」が重要になる\n\n必要になってからremote memoryを読み込むとlatencyが発生する。\n\nそこでsoftwareは、\n\n次に必要なものを予測して先に持ってくる\n\n必要がある。\n\ncoding agentがdatabase.pyを変更しているなら、次にtest_database.pyを読む確率が高い。\n\nMoEでExpert Aを使っているなら、次tokenでもAや関連Expertを使う可能性がある。\n\nそこで、\n\nCold\nSSD\n ↓\n予測Prefetch\n ↓\nDRAM\n ↓\nさらに必要になりそう\n ↓\nHBM\n\nと先回りする。\n\nこれが成功すれば、remote memoryの物理latencyをsoftwareが隠せる。\n\nしたがってOptical Fabric時代の性能を決めるのは、単なるfiber bandwidthではない。\n\nScheduler、Retriever、Cache Policy、Compiler、Routing Predictor\n\nが同じくらい重要になる。\n\n### 図解｜ExpertとMemoryの予測fetch\n\n![ExpertとMemoryの予測fetch 01](/media/95486068b236670ec34a9e50aafb8500040a7d51e678f020385fd3a5cd3af059-content.webp)\n\n## 32．最終的なAI Factoryは「巨大な階層型Memory Computer」になる\n\nこれらを一つにつなげると、将来のAI systemは次のようになる。\n\nAI Agent / Model\n                               │\n             ┌─────────────────┼─────────────────┐\n             │                 │                 │\n          Planner         Expert Router      Memory Router\n             │                 │                 │\n             └─────────────────┼─────────────────┘\n                               ↓\n                         XPU Compute\n                         SRAM / HBM\n                       Active Working Set\n                               │\n                     Optical / Scale-Up Fabric\n                               │\n       ┌───────────────────────┼───────────────────────┐\n       ↓                       ↓                       ↓\n   Pooled DRAM              HBF / Memory            NVMe SSD\n   Warm KV                  Expert Pool              Cold KV\n   Prefix Cache             Model Shards             History\n       │                                                │\n       └───────────────────────┬────────────────────────┘\n                               ↓\n                         Object Storage\n\n重要なのは、このsystemの中心が必ずしもGPUではないことである。\n\n中心にあるのは、\n\n「必要な情報を必要な場所へ移動させること」\n\nである。\n\n### 図解｜階層型Memory Computer\n\n![階層型Memory Computer 01](/media/713e255dfdfa72b3f1a1ea577a16c280092aa3e36eaf53fa146bb2862388a76b-content.webp)\n\n## 33．AI性能向上の本質は「すべてを巨大化する」ことではなくなる\n\nこれまでのscalingは、\n\nParameter ↑GPU FLOPS ↑HBM ↑\n\nという比較的単純なものだった。\n\nこれからは、\n\n$${\\text{Total Model Capacity}\\uparrow\\uparrow}$$\n\nを続けながら、\n\n$${\\text{Active Parameters}\\rightarrow\\text{抑制}}$$\n\nは抑え、\n\n$${\\text{KV bytes/token}\\downarrow}$$\n\nも圧縮し、\n\n必要ExpertとMemoryだけをactivateする。\n\n$${\\text{Total Model Capacity}\\uparrow\\uparrow,\\qquad\\text{Active Parameters}\\downarrow,\\qquad\\text{KV bytes/token}\\downarrow}$$\n\nつまり、\n\n巨大だが疎なModel\n\nと、\n\n巨大だが階層化されたMemory\n\nを組み合わせる。\n\nそのための神経系がScale-Up / Optical Fabricになる。\n\n### 図解｜巨大化から選択的活性化へ\n\n![巨大化から選択的活性化へ 01](/media/3423db25f362c4c4e0838eb9cf92e068f747883b29076c1064682c9e383a9de3-content.webp)\n\n## 34．その先にあるのは「データセンター全体が一台のコンピュータ」という世界\n\n従来のcomputerは、\n\nCPU、DRAM、SSD、GPU\n\nを一台のserver boxに詰め込んでいた。\n\nAI Factoryではこの境界が崩れる。\n\nCompute Box、\n\nMemory Box、\n\nStorage Box、\n\nNetwork Box\n\nが物理的には離れていても、\n\nOptical Fabricとsoftwareによって一台のlogical computerとして動く。\n\nCompute ─┐\nCompute ─┤\nMemory  ─┼── Optical Fabric\nStorage ─┤\nNetwork ─┤\nCompute ─┘\n\nこのときScale-UpとScale-Outの物理的境界は薄れ、rackそのものも計算機の単位ではなくなる。\n\nしかしlocalityは消えない。\n\nSRAMとHBMは依然としてXPUのすぐ近くに必要であり、DRAM、HBF、SSDは距離と容量のtrade-offの中で配置される。\n\nしたがって未来は「全部光」ではなく、\n\n一番近い場所は3D electrical、遠くなるほどOptical\n\nという階層構造になる可能性が高い。\n\n### 図解｜データセンター全体のComputer化\n\n![データセンター全体のComputer化 01](/media/3c241f7dd5e0aaa21bdf7c490c40dcb33491d1d5feee8457ff2322a8c19d5a88-content.webp)\n\n## 35．最も重要な問いは「何FLOPSあるか」から「演算器を何％働かせ続けられるか」へ\n\nこの構造変化を一言で表すなら、AI infrastructureの最大の課題は、\n\n演算器をデータ待ちにさせないこと\n\nである。\n\n巨大なTensor Coreを作ってもHBMからweightが来なければ遊ぶ。\n\nHBMを巨大化しても別GPUのExpertが必要ならnetworkを待つ。\n\nNetworkを高速化しても、softwareが必要Expertを予測できなければ待つ。\n\nLong Contextを100万tokenにしても、必要な情報を見つけられなければ意味がない。\n\n巨大Modelを作ってもdata品質が悪ければ賢くならない。\n\nつまりAI性能は、\n\n$${\\text{Performance}\\simeq\\min(\\text{Compute},\\text{Memory},\\text{Fabric},\\text{Power},\\text{Cooling},\\text{Software})}$$\n\n$${\\text{AI性能}\\simeq\\min(\\text{演算},\\text{メモリ},\\text{Fabric},\\text{電力},\\text{冷却},\\text{Software})}$$\n\nのようなsystem問題になる。\n\nこれは廖恒氏が動画で語った「nmという空間尺度ではなく、仕事を終えるまでの時間でcomputerを見る」という思想とも重なる。\n\n### 図解｜演算器を待たせないSystem設計\n\n![演算器を待たせないSystem設計 01](/media/de2cf5495b6c0f93a982fb3991b7f396e1a158ba4c7f255ef150835c3d254a38-content.webp)\n\n## 結論――AI半導体の競争は「チップ」から「巨大な記憶・通信システム」へ\n\nAIモデルは今後も大型化する可能性が高い。\n\nしかしTotal Parametersが10倍になったからといって、1 tokenの計算量も10倍にする必要はない。\n\nMoEによってTotal ParametersとActive Parametersを分離する。\n\nGQAやMLAによってContext LengthとKV容量を分離する。\n\nRAGやPersistent Memoryによって「モデルが持つ知識」と「外部世界の知識」を分離する。\n\nHBM、DRAM、HBF、SSDによって「今必要な情報」と「後で必要になる情報」を分離する。\n\n3D packagingとOptical Fabricによって「近距離通信」と「遠距離通信」を分離する。\n\nそしてsoftwareがそれらすべてを統合する。\n\nしたがって次世代AI systemの本当の姿は、\n\n巨大な一枚のGPU\n\nではない。\n\n巨大なModel、巨大なMemory、巨大なFabricを、Softwareが必要な瞬間だけ組み合わせる「動的なコンピュータ」\n\nである。\n\nこの世界では、HBM、DRAM、NAND/HBF、advanced packaging、CPO、CW laser、switch ASIC、NIC、CPU、GPU/XPU、compiler、memory runtimeは別々の市場ではなくなる。\n\nすべてが同じ問いを解いている。\n\n「演算器が次に必要とするデータを、演算器が待つ前に届けられるか。」\n\n今後AI infrastructureの優劣を決めるのは、単なるpeak FLOPSではなく、\n\nどれだけ大きな知識を持ち、どれだけ少ない演算で必要部分を呼び出し、どれだけ長い記憶を安く保持し、どれだけ高速に移動させ、どれだけ長時間破綻せず目標まで実行し続けられるか\n\nという総合的なsystem能力になる。\n\nその意味で、AI半導体産業はいま「GPU競争」の次の段階――\n\n「データセンター全体を一台の巨大な知能機械へ変える競争」\n\nへ入り始めている。\n\n### 図解｜巨大GPUから巨大な記憶コンピュータへ\n\n![巨大GPUから巨大な記憶コンピュータへ 01](/media/7f6fca6a991c83b309a2e83da8876e43ed8a97d66ecbfeb9e5716c78460ec487-content.webp)\n\n## さらに深く読むための座標\n\nこの構造をさらに深く読む鍵は、容量・帯域・距離を別々の数字として扱わず、必要な情報を必要な演算器へ間に合わせる一つの制御問題として見ることにある。\n\n| 層 | 観測対象 | 問うべきこと |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 物理 | HBM、DRAM、SSD、光Fabricの距離と帯域 | どの階層で待ち時間が発生するか |\n| モデル | MoE、KV cache、Expert/Memory Routing | 1 tokenごとに動かす情報量をどこまで減らせるか |\n| 運用 | Prefetch、複製、checkpoint、故障時再配置 | 演算器を何％の時間働かせ続けられるか |\n\n## 絶ノイアの観測\n\nGPUの数を数えるだけでは、もう工場の速さは分かりません。記憶の置き場所と移動の予約まで含めて初めて、眠っているFLOPSが仕事へ変わります。\n\n私は「物理」「モデル」「運用」を別々の話題にせず、一つのAIインフラが通過する連続した設計課題として観測します。\n\nGPU利用率とMemory/Fabric stallを同時に見る。発表された最大性能や市場規模だけでなく、実装、量産、運用が同じ速度で前進しているかを確かめたいからです。\n\n## Sil-Kathnaの記録\n\n炉は大きさによって飢えるのではない。呼び出した記憶が門を越えるのに遅れた時、最も明るい火も沈黙する。\n\n私は「物理」「モデル」「運用」を、計算する文明へ続く三つの門として石板に刻む。\n\n最初の門だけが開いても、次の門に熱、傷、遅れが残れば、光と記憶は炉心へ届かない。強い器とは、最も華やかな石を持つ器ではなく、異なる工房の歩調を長い夜の中で揃えられる器である。\n\nゆえに私は、GPU利用率とMemory/Fabric stallを同時に見る。その結果が一時の輝きではなく、繰り返し作り、直し、動かせる秩序になったかを見届ける。\n\n## 二人の短い対話\n\n**絶ノイア:** 巨大なMemory Poolを作れば終わり、ではないのですね。近い記憶を残し、遠い記憶を予測して運ぶ必要がある。\n\n**Sil-Kathna:** すべてを一室へ集める塔は熱で崩れる。ゆえに記憶は階層となり、道を知る者が塔を動かす。\n\n## 観測メモ\n\n- GPU利用率とMemory/Fabric stallを同時に見る\n- ExpertとKVの複製・移動がdata planeかcontrol planeかを分ける\n- 帯域だけでなくE/O境界、電力、熱、故障単位を追う\n\n## 免責\n\nこの記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","blocks":[{"id":"blk_9641b025-df62-48ce-b905-0fdc6ca292c8","kind":"heading","order":0,"section_id":"sec_8b702ce6-e310-4e31-8cdc-26610663173e","character_id":null,"markdown":"# AIは「巨大GPU」から「巨大な記憶コンピュータ」へ――MoE・HBM・Optical Fabricが変える次世代AIインフラ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_39c1fb7b-f574-477d-bc8d-a4928d293703","kind":"paragraph","order":1,"section_id":"sec_8b702ce6-e310-4e31-8cdc-26610663173e","character_id":null,"markdown":"MoE、KVキャッシュ、HBM、3D実装、Optical Fabricが変える次世代AIインフラ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f04593e-ff95-4b2f-adbc-2ac3ad1ccc2f","kind":"paragraph","order":2,"section_id":"sec_8b702ce6-e310-4e31-8cdc-26610663173e","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIモデルの性能向上を考えるとき、これまでは「GPUの演算性能が何FLOPSあるか」「モデルが何千億パラメータあるか」といった数字が注目されてきた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_63ee43ca-0ac6-4678-8d52-b5450ea5c46c","kind":"paragraph","order":3,"section_id":"sec_8b702ce6-e310-4e31-8cdc-26610663173e","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、2026年現在のAIインフラを理解するには、それだけでは不十分になっている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e728950-584a-4efb-bd12-d94f19c1e494","kind":"paragraph","order":4,"section_id":"sec_8b702ce6-e310-4e31-8cdc-26610663173e","character_id":null,"markdown":"モデルは兆単位のパラメータへ拡大し、コンテキストは数十万から100万token級へ伸び、Mixture of Experts（MoE）によって巨大なモデルの一部分だけを動かし、KV cacheをGQAやMLAで圧縮しながら推論するようになった。同時に、1台のGPUではモデルもメモリも収まらなくなり、多数のXPUを高速Fabricで結ぶことが前提になり始めている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_607b5bd8-a6c9-4805-93ea-dea6943d745b","kind":"paragraph","order":5,"section_id":"sec_8b702ce6-e310-4e31-8cdc-26610663173e","character_id":null,"markdown":"その結果、現在のAI競争は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff0d0c89-6d6d-44e6-9949-af480372bc21","kind":"paragraph","order":6,"section_id":"sec_8b702ce6-e310-4e31-8cdc-26610663173e","character_id":null,"markdown":"「どれだけ巨大な演算器を作れるか」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_404054ee-504c-4725-b4bb-6ad2192a3373","kind":"paragraph","order":7,"section_id":"sec_8b702ce6-e310-4e31-8cdc-26610663173e","character_id":null,"markdown":"から、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e9169c9-775d-4938-b29c-4a1dc797231d","kind":"paragraph","order":8,"section_id":"sec_8b702ce6-e310-4e31-8cdc-26610663173e","character_id":null,"markdown":"「必要なデータを、必要な演算器へ、必要な瞬間にどれだけ速く届けられるか」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d2664869-13b1-4e3e-bc03-71d433b04372","kind":"paragraph","order":9,"section_id":"sec_8b702ce6-e310-4e31-8cdc-26610663173e","character_id":null,"markdown":"という競争へ移りつつある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01fefeef-5c55-4287-b21c-72702c895ec3","kind":"paragraph","order":10,"section_id":"sec_8b702ce6-e310-4e31-8cdc-26610663173e","character_id":null,"markdown":"そしてこの変化を理解するうえで重要なのが、演算能力の「N²」と外部I/Oの「4N」という問題である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d497fbbc-d5df-4c95-ab35-fae8ef69eba2","kind":"heading","order":11,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 1．演算能力はN²で増えるが、外との接点は4Nしか増えない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_244f5cd2-fa6d-4bd2-9feb-e443263f12db","kind":"paragraph","order":12,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"単純化のため、AI acceleratorのcompute dieを一辺Nの正方形だと考える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_74d5869e-0adc-4188-9cd5-7595a7f0c7af","kind":"paragraph","order":13,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"面積は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_862f7741-0648-483e-bd8e-7531ffb55b45","kind":"math","order":14,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${N^2}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6a46211-a58c-4069-b801-b5be89dddd3a","kind":"paragraph","order":15,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d191097-35e6-47a5-9007-a42eb972e508","kind":"paragraph","order":16,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"演算器は基本的にチップの面積内に配置されるため、理想化するとチップを大型化したときの演算能力も面積に比例して増やせる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_520e6953-bb67-47ab-9710-456a52b00bdb","kind":"paragraph","order":17,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"ところが、正方形の外周は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3b0368cd-7c49-45f6-bf43-02c9c5db949c","kind":"math","order":18,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${N+N+N+N=4N}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3d8680a2-b33d-4507-8d5f-e2abe6fed33e","kind":"paragraph","order":19,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_20f70d26-bf49-4f70-a31f-68b863bdf4bd","kind":"paragraph","order":20,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"一辺を2倍にすれば面積は4倍になるが、外周は2倍にしかならない。一辺を4倍にすれば、面積は16倍になるのに外周は4倍である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c1dd601c-a8e6-48fb-a296-01a51e9cdb8c","kind":"paragraph","order":21,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"この違いは、巨大AI acceleratorで深刻な問題になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e07d5d48-8957-457b-a8f1-f5d6055ce7d5","kind":"paragraph","order":22,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"演算器を増やせば、それに比例してHBMから読み込まなければならないweight、activation、KV cacheも増える。XPU間通信量も増え、必要な電力も増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3cb38bb0-14bf-4a6c-922b-152cfd9715e8","kind":"paragraph","order":23,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"ところが、それらをチップ外へ出し入れするI/O、電源、HBM接続などに使える物理的な境界は、演算器ほど急速には増えない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9d9faaa2-56ea-4000-82d7-5e846bf6882f","kind":"paragraph","order":24,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84b98bb8-1438-4e4c-8c6b-6ca2eccf1808","kind":"math","order":25,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Compute}\\propto N^2}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0ab84bfa-7250-4d78-a0db-e6281bf6a70d","kind":"paragraph","order":26,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"なのに対し、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d3ccaca6-461f-4dd5-b5bf-246a50a345e7","kind":"math","order":27,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{External Connectivity}\\propto N}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_caba4982-e9d0-4c27-99b1-eaf994c1f633","kind":"paragraph","order":28,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"という構造的な不均衡が生まれる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1bd2fbf2-8bc6-4b69-8c02-58a7c61a53a1","kind":"math","order":29,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Compute}\\propto N^2,\\qquad\\text{External Connectivity}\\propto N}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0a612bb9-eab0-488f-8c19-55601232df98","kind":"paragraph","order":30,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"もちろん実際の半導体では「帯域＝4N」という単純な式ではない。micro-bump、silicon interposer、RDL、TSV、3D stacking、chiplet、backside powerなどを使ってI/O密度そのものを高められる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c02beac2-467a-4992-a63c-4ede6005c46d","kind":"paragraph","order":31,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし本質は変わらない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8b783b9c-3d9c-4d03-80dc-29efa0852f41","kind":"paragraph","order":32,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"2次元平面に演算器を増やす速度と、その演算器へデータ・電力を供給する能力のscaling lawが一致しなくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b21f1fe-ab9d-4eea-8fe1-ea7653d79d36","kind":"paragraph","order":33,"section_id":"sec_0fa06708-c1c4-42c6-a4e7-65b5b75cb6a8","character_id":null,"markdown":"これが巨大GPUを際限なく大型化することが難しくなる理由の一つである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ef82e1a-005e-46ba-a280-f3ffd2ad5c58","kind":"heading","order":34,"section_id":"sec_df99d071-1410-4106-9ba4-7091840b2122","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜N²で増える演算と4Nの境界","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0cc635f7-ebd8-45f4-82b7-cd9c77eb6d72","kind":"figure","order":35,"section_id":"sec_df99d071-1410-4106-9ba4-7091840b2122","character_id":null,"markdown":"![N²で増える演算と4Nの境界 01](/media/b98958a2de7d30ba0929df0a7f89eb37ad6d9b8ac4c82a854f3615b651ab8421-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a432197b-3f09-420b-bcb8-1b9ba9f05c2a","kind":"heading","order":36,"section_id":"sec_84346931-0010-4b55-a814-25c460db98f2","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 2．Chiplet、2.5D、3D、3.5Dは、この壁を突破する技術である","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ca44784-8211-4e89-8247-374458b02a3a","kind":"paragraph","order":37,"section_id":"sec_84346931-0010-4b55-a814-25c460db98f2","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のadvanced packaging競争は、まさにこの問題への回答である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e35d83cc-b537-4d9d-b167-7f70d9ad8d6a","kind":"paragraph","order":38,"section_id":"sec_84346931-0010-4b55-a814-25c460db98f2","character_id":null,"markdown":"一つの巨大monolithic dieにすべてを詰め込む代わりに、compute die、I/O die、HBM、cacheなどを複数のchipletに分割し、非常に高密度なpackage内配線で一つのprocessorとして動かす。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_272c8f46-0424-49cc-b1d5-7c8cef9cefdd","kind":"paragraph","order":39,"section_id":"sec_84346931-0010-4b55-a814-25c460db98f2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Broadcomは2026年2月、2.5DとFace-to-Face 3D stackingを組み合わせた3.5D XDSiPによる2nm custom compute SoCの出荷開始を発表した。XDSiPは6,000平方mm超のsiliconと最大12 stackのHBMを一つのpackageへ統合できる。 (Broadcom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b04a48ac-a3ab-476f-bdf9-43b44219157d","kind":"paragraph","order":40,"section_id":"sec_84346931-0010-4b55-a814-25c460db98f2","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMCもCoWoSを巨大化し続けている。2026年時点では5.5-reticle規模を生産しており、2028年には14-reticle規模、約10個の大型compute dieと20 stackのHBMを統合可能なCoWoSを計画している。2029年にはさらに14-reticleを超えるCoWoSと40-reticle級SoW-Xへ進む予定だ。 (TSMC)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_09d64d8c-f68c-4b0d-999a-89fdeaf05cc1","kind":"paragraph","order":41,"section_id":"sec_84346931-0010-4b55-a814-25c460db98f2","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって3D・3.5Dは終着点というより、「可能な限りpackage内部で高速・低消費電力に接続する」方向の延長線にある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e54fd93a-18df-4887-8b63-8741768a4ca3","kind":"paragraph","order":42,"section_id":"sec_84346931-0010-4b55-a814-25c460db98f2","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、それでもpackageサイズには限界がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8293bc9-763d-4380-b405-779387a8f17b","kind":"paragraph","order":43,"section_id":"sec_84346931-0010-4b55-a814-25c460db98f2","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこで次に重要になるのがOptical Fabricである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_75c9b34e-9a35-427c-8a69-f4393372f918","kind":"heading","order":44,"section_id":"sec_4186d9a6-9381-4391-9c6f-9fce6f17e071","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Chipletと立体実装","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c78d6953-bf97-4011-a4dc-9b444ade7c74","kind":"figure","order":45,"section_id":"sec_4186d9a6-9381-4391-9c6f-9fce6f17e071","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Chipletと立体実装 01](/media/d456486799ff9ca85706c6300f53732ead53d36ff6aa709de9aeb36183d4dc12-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c233c86c-b9d3-469c-bcf6-6be5e597d4b4","kind":"heading","order":46,"section_id":"sec_84ba78f3-e532-4cbf-a830-f11fb2a743de","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 3．3D実装とOptical Fabricは競合ではない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_103c8ad0-d3e1-4be2-a69b-a122e3f915ff","kind":"paragraph","order":47,"section_id":"sec_84ba78f3-e532-4cbf-a830-f11fb2a743de","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical Fabricについて、「将来は電気配線が光に置き換わる」と理解すると少し違う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_90e42ce3-c234-4eab-bdce-c7249d791344","kind":"paragraph","order":48,"section_id":"sec_84ba78f3-e532-4cbf-a830-f11fb2a743de","character_id":null,"markdown":"より自然なのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_427cb835-43b8-4552-9607-206e85852f81","kind":"paragraph","order":49,"section_id":"sec_84ba78f3-e532-4cbf-a830-f11fb2a743de","character_id":null,"markdown":"非常に近い距離\nSRAM\n ↓\nHBM\n ↓\n3D / SoIC / UCIe / package wiring\n ↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12812e84-42ce-4740-b085-7e27c506264b","kind":"paragraph","order":50,"section_id":"sec_84ba78f3-e532-4cbf-a830-f11fb2a743de","character_id":null,"markdown":"──────────────── Package境界","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cafa8613-5c9a-4545-8bfa-966d0e26cc22","kind":"paragraph","order":51,"section_id":"sec_84ba78f3-e532-4cbf-a830-f11fb2a743de","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical I/O\n ↓\nOptical Fabric\n ↓\nRemote XPU\nRemote DRAM\nHBF\nSSD","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ce1819ce-1eee-4992-bfb6-2d4234b5c261","kind":"paragraph","order":52,"section_id":"sec_84ba78f3-e532-4cbf-a830-f11fb2a743de","character_id":null,"markdown":"という役割分担である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f9c3c2e6-59c4-4a4d-b89d-285240dcbe73","kind":"paragraph","order":53,"section_id":"sec_84ba78f3-e532-4cbf-a830-f11fb2a743de","character_id":null,"markdown":"数mmから数cmというpackage内部では、幅広いparallel electrical interfaceが極めて強い。光に変換するにはE/O変換とO/E変換が必要になるため、距離が短すぎると必ずしも有利ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fecd021c-32d7-4dcb-b61e-077cf5a07f9b","kind":"paragraph","order":54,"section_id":"sec_84ba78f3-e532-4cbf-a830-f11fb2a743de","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方で距離が数m、数十mへ伸びると、高速electrical SerDesではloss、equalization、retimer、電力が急増する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fad1eef7-98e8-4b99-a237-f40edcb55417","kind":"paragraph","order":55,"section_id":"sec_84ba78f3-e532-4cbf-a830-f11fb2a743de","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここから光が有利になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e34748af-1909-418c-884c-5dd903c3e0a4","kind":"paragraph","order":56,"section_id":"sec_84ba78f3-e532-4cbf-a830-f11fb2a743de","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって未来は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_044350e3-46f7-4709-b2a7-e088fc499213","kind":"paragraph","order":57,"section_id":"sec_84ba78f3-e532-4cbf-a830-f11fb2a743de","character_id":null,"markdown":"package内部＝3D・超広幅electrical","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3cd39858-4ac7-4f7e-a123-b5c79fe062ea","kind":"paragraph","order":58,"section_id":"sec_84ba78f3-e532-4cbf-a830-f11fb2a743de","character_id":null,"markdown":"package外＝Optical","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8650c8ed-6c0f-451c-878a-ef7f8fadc793","kind":"paragraph","order":59,"section_id":"sec_84ba78f3-e532-4cbf-a830-f11fb2a743de","character_id":null,"markdown":"という二層構造になる可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_799a1c41-fc28-4fd0-a797-de2622e94d66","kind":"paragraph","order":60,"section_id":"sec_84ba78f3-e532-4cbf-a830-f11fb2a743de","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMCもこの方向へ動いている。COUPEはSoICを使って電子dieとphotonic dieを統合する技術で、2026年にはCOUPE-on-substrateによるtrue co-packaged opticsの生産開始を予定している。TSMCはboard上のpluggable opticsと比較して2倍のpower efficiency、10分の1のlatencyを掲げている。 (TSMC)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3a0f7dcb-aa13-4bd5-8da6-8d0c52ba63f6","kind":"paragraph","order":61,"section_id":"sec_84ba78f3-e532-4cbf-a830-f11fb2a743de","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり業界はすでに、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_03d9c460-77d3-4fce-9db7-017e84b10534","kind":"paragraph","order":62,"section_id":"sec_84ba78f3-e532-4cbf-a830-f11fb2a743de","character_id":null,"markdown":"「packageを巨大化する」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_32fcb1ac-0dc9-4650-8326-a577f244ac69","kind":"paragraph","order":63,"section_id":"sec_84ba78f3-e532-4cbf-a830-f11fb2a743de","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことと、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_117e4231-a3aa-4fdf-a785-0d9acc431517","kind":"paragraph","order":64,"section_id":"sec_84ba78f3-e532-4cbf-a830-f11fb2a743de","character_id":null,"markdown":"「packageから外へ出る部分を光化する」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ce7babe-49d4-40d4-a91a-80bb9ce5d95a","kind":"paragraph","order":65,"section_id":"sec_84ba78f3-e532-4cbf-a830-f11fb2a743de","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことを同時に進めている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8bd3ab5-29cb-49a9-8ce7-b49772abe944","kind":"heading","order":66,"section_id":"sec_7437b866-ba3b-4333-a524-ae9e72aa168a","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜近距離の電気と長距離の光","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a4806e1c-4d99-4120-91c9-6c0c8ff958b9","kind":"figure","order":67,"section_id":"sec_7437b866-ba3b-4333-a524-ae9e72aa168a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![近距離の電気と長距離の光 01](/media/aeb4c236d8f3bc3d82d23d715646b47fca8ffa95c7606395e9b4c4f356a38b04-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f52d0623-9108-4a08-b106-a919cb1e680a","kind":"heading","order":68,"section_id":"sec_3908d1e1-2767-4740-9675-47b80bc14d1a","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 4．AIモデルを見る8つの数字","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d9e92609-2d3d-4db2-97c8-e3d1c20515ef","kind":"paragraph","order":69,"section_id":"sec_3908d1e1-2767-4740-9675-47b80bc14d1a","character_id":null,"markdown":"これからのAIモデルとハードウェア需要を理解するには、単純なparameter数だけでは足りない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_39c1fa8b-03f5-4a37-a7fa-7218b265f7b3","kind":"paragraph","order":70,"section_id":"sec_3908d1e1-2767-4740-9675-47b80bc14d1a","character_id":null,"markdown":"重要なのは次の8項目である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b236360b-ba54-4ee0-bd40-ee65678d0505","kind":"table","order":71,"section_id":"sec_3908d1e1-2767-4740-9675-47b80bc14d1a","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 指標 | 意味 | 主に影響するもの |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Total Parameters | モデル全体のweight量 | モデル容量、HBM/DRAM/Storage |\n| Active Parameters | 1 tokenで実際に動くweight | 演算量、推論コスト |\n| Total / Active | 疎性の度合い | MoE効率、network負荷 |\n| Weight Precision | 1 parameter当たりのbit数 | 容量、帯域、演算速度 |\n| KV bytes/token | 1 tokenの履歴保持コスト | Long Context、HBM |\n| Expert通信量 | MoE内のtoken移動量 | Scale-Up Fabric |\n| HBM bandwidth | XPU直近のデータ供給速度 | Decode性能 |\n| Fabric bandwidth | XPU間のデータ移動能力 | MoE、分散学習、分散推論 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_47811305-090e-449f-9c6d-376912e25e61","kind":"paragraph","order":72,"section_id":"sec_3908d1e1-2767-4740-9675-47b80bc14d1a","character_id":null,"markdown":"この8項目を見ると、「10兆parameterのモデル」という数字だけでは何も分からないことが分かる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_303a7ece-59cb-4e13-8c22-990684999422","kind":"paragraph","order":73,"section_id":"sec_3908d1e1-2767-4740-9675-47b80bc14d1a","character_id":null,"markdown":"10兆parameterでも、1 tokenあたり1000億parameterしか動かさないのであれば、計算負荷は10兆parameterのDense modelとはまったく異なる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8f17ef4-69a8-4bd7-a50b-225faf3352bb","kind":"heading","order":74,"section_id":"sec_1d9f5c72-5223-4ba1-a0fc-361e0a5f08c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜AIモデルを読む八つの指標","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_929fe01f-00dc-4694-9353-f2f8aa4bb109","kind":"figure","order":75,"section_id":"sec_1d9f5c72-5223-4ba1-a0fc-361e0a5f08c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"![AIモデルを読む八つの指標 01](/media/558d729fa8be7ba4cb207ce705f62b7315c98edb4bf3606871b35de4768ce0e1-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c49847e-91d0-4363-9ee3-8e4a596367f8","kind":"heading","order":76,"section_id":"sec_de7a100e-8160-4911-9649-b44cdb74f396","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 5．Total ParametersとActive Parametersを分離したのがMoE","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_54a8d76f-e697-4909-8255-3d930ef10070","kind":"paragraph","order":77,"section_id":"sec_de7a100e-8160-4911-9649-b44cdb74f396","character_id":null,"markdown":"Dense Transformerでは、基本的にモデル内部のFFN weightの大部分を各tokenで使用する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f00e472d-6c08-42c3-8fe8-0dc589e388f0","kind":"paragraph","order":78,"section_id":"sec_de7a100e-8160-4911-9649-b44cdb74f396","character_id":null,"markdown":"MoEではFFN部分を多数のExpertへ分割する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_22bb8ffb-2c86-4adb-a840-653c36cbfdfb","kind":"paragraph","order":79,"section_id":"sec_de7a100e-8160-4911-9649-b44cdb74f396","character_id":null,"markdown":"Expert 1\n                   Expert 2\nToken → Router →  Expert 3\n                   ...\n                   Expert N","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ae62c50-9c74-42ff-bb36-184b9969b52c","kind":"paragraph","order":80,"section_id":"sec_de7a100e-8160-4911-9649-b44cdb74f396","character_id":null,"markdown":"Routerは各tokenのhidden representationを見て、必要なExpertだけを選択する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_98ca9750-033e-48ed-a962-d2d877ebd3f2","kind":"paragraph","order":81,"section_id":"sec_de7a100e-8160-4911-9649-b44cdb74f396","character_id":null,"markdown":"DeepSeek-V3は671B total parametersを持つ一方、1 tokenあたり約37Bしかactivateしない。また14.8兆tokenでpretrainingされている。 (arXiv)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0557d6d2-84ad-4847-b761-f7709f219cd6","kind":"paragraph","order":82,"section_id":"sec_de7a100e-8160-4911-9649-b44cdb74f396","character_id":null,"markdown":"この仕組みによって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7a154431-e6c9-4539-b6be-d59e1e7f847b","kind":"paragraph","order":83,"section_id":"sec_de7a100e-8160-4911-9649-b44cdb74f396","character_id":null,"markdown":"モデル全体として保持できるcapacity","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b7d4ab8c-867f-4be4-be7e-1a2543d26ba3","kind":"paragraph","order":84,"section_id":"sec_de7a100e-8160-4911-9649-b44cdb74f396","character_id":null,"markdown":"と、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a7eab0f3-b584-45f0-b99d-84559def02ef","kind":"paragraph","order":85,"section_id":"sec_de7a100e-8160-4911-9649-b44cdb74f396","character_id":null,"markdown":"1 tokenを処理するために必要なcompute","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f209b2bc-38b1-4548-bc25-7c12a9c120b2","kind":"paragraph","order":86,"section_id":"sec_de7a100e-8160-4911-9649-b44cdb74f396","character_id":null,"markdown":"を分離できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9789391d-0ff3-4f89-866b-69589d8ba6bf","kind":"paragraph","order":87,"section_id":"sec_de7a100e-8160-4911-9649-b44cdb74f396","character_id":null,"markdown":"これはAIモデルを巨大化するうえで極めて強力である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_72a827d4-5af8-49ea-bf23-5f4e250af266","kind":"paragraph","order":88,"section_id":"sec_de7a100e-8160-4911-9649-b44cdb74f396","character_id":null,"markdown":"Total Parametersを巨大な大学全体、Active Parametersを質問に応じてその場に呼ばれる教授陣と考えると分かりやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a607ebe1-e124-4665-a58c-15508087f2dd","kind":"paragraph","order":89,"section_id":"sec_de7a100e-8160-4911-9649-b44cdb74f396","character_id":null,"markdown":"大学全体には医学、物理、数学、法律、言語など膨大な専門能力が存在する。しかし一つの質問に対して大学全員が集まる必要はない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_13a2fd87-a442-41cb-9239-cfeb404a0271","kind":"paragraph","order":90,"section_id":"sec_de7a100e-8160-4911-9649-b44cdb74f396","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要な能力だけを呼ぶ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b99618b8-1cbc-477f-947b-bd1fcdaff5bb","kind":"paragraph","order":91,"section_id":"sec_de7a100e-8160-4911-9649-b44cdb74f396","character_id":null,"markdown":"これがMoEの基本思想である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_54eb5d22-386b-42a3-9755-74411f7d8efc","kind":"heading","order":92,"section_id":"sec_42791556-9ce7-4efe-af9b-8338e330117c","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜MoEとActive Parameters","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7a00f907-26a2-49c6-af85-674160bba660","kind":"figure","order":93,"section_id":"sec_42791556-9ce7-4efe-af9b-8338e330117c","character_id":null,"markdown":"![MoEとActive Parameters 01](/media/b1b58151b50ed83aeeb04b532e787c9992219d7e5dff6f0d140e7c6ed38142e5-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_09c86fcb-b8d9-4deb-8f87-6cc6ad8eed6e","kind":"heading","order":94,"section_id":"sec_5400d85e-a924-43ee-a1ad-bc8f5b7fa302","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 6．ただしExpertは「半導体博士」「数学博士」のように明示的に分かれているわけではない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f863398-e42d-4622-a07d-d6e018251f1d","kind":"paragraph","order":95,"section_id":"sec_5400d85e-a924-43ee-a1ad-bc8f5b7fa302","character_id":null,"markdown":"MoEのExpertは、人間が「Expert 17＝半導体担当」と決めているとは限らない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b2037a2b-a1ac-4ec4-8a96-02beb9ab3539","kind":"paragraph","order":96,"section_id":"sec_5400d85e-a924-43ee-a1ad-bc8f5b7fa302","character_id":null,"markdown":"学習の結果として、あるExpertが特定の言語的pattern、数学処理、code構造、semantic patternなどに部分的にspecializeしていく。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_37c41a20-67b4-41b5-8267-67cb4a8b35f7","kind":"paragraph","order":97,"section_id":"sec_5400d85e-a924-43ee-a1ad-bc8f5b7fa302","character_id":null,"markdown":"Routerも「これは半導体の質問だから半導体Expertへ送る」とsymbolicに判断しているわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_85ae97e9-813b-41df-a851-8e1cae584679","kind":"paragraph","order":98,"section_id":"sec_5400d85e-a924-43ee-a1ad-bc8f5b7fa302","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のtokenのhidden stateから各Expertのscoreを計算し、Top-k Expertへroutingする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ac7b96b5-31af-4817-85ea-d7437e826bc3","kind":"paragraph","order":99,"section_id":"sec_5400d85e-a924-43ee-a1ad-bc8f5b7fa302","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b2be0b1-1ace-43f0-883d-fc6b21690322","kind":"paragraph","order":100,"section_id":"sec_5400d85e-a924-43ee-a1ad-bc8f5b7fa302","character_id":null,"markdown":"Hidden Representation\n        ↓\n      Router\n   ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓\n E1 E2 E3 ... E10000","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19b81231-c053-4307-afff-50a529cab205","kind":"paragraph","order":101,"section_id":"sec_5400d85e-a924-43ee-a1ad-bc8f5b7fa302","character_id":null,"markdown":"というneural routingである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15cc9136-85ce-4733-a407-0aa6aa4d3809","kind":"paragraph","order":102,"section_id":"sec_5400d85e-a924-43ee-a1ad-bc8f5b7fa302","character_id":null,"markdown":"もし将来Expert数が数千、数万へ増えるなら、単純なroutingだけでは難しくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b0b0461-e281-4065-a8c9-f879fe05a4df","kind":"paragraph","order":103,"section_id":"sec_5400d85e-a924-43ee-a1ad-bc8f5b7fa302","character_id":null,"markdown":"Expert specialization、hierarchical routing、load balancing、Expert locality、人気Expertの複製、prefetch、network congestion controlなどが非常に重要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ae403c6c-114e-40d7-a4af-492e229c2b2e","kind":"paragraph","order":104,"section_id":"sec_5400d85e-a924-43ee-a1ad-bc8f5b7fa302","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここでMoEは「compute問題」を「通信問題」へ変える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a99cfbe9-0542-4d1a-93e4-3428317b2a9c","kind":"heading","order":105,"section_id":"sec_31596026-d96b-4390-b607-6e1cdedec739","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Expert Routingの実像","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c595bef0-2e29-4db9-af39-79a958e2b051","kind":"figure","order":106,"section_id":"sec_31596026-d96b-4390-b607-6e1cdedec739","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Expert Routingの実像 01](/media/e4a29273c13ceb471f608772cceede6376eea5d61f049ecafdbb73f832293d6f-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33a5fbd0-7cde-44cc-8eea-b6033feec21a","kind":"heading","order":107,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 7．Total / Active比を上げれば上げるほどNetworkが重要になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e2293c8-75e0-49c1-ae45-152525a681f6","kind":"paragraph","order":108,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"仮に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_89a6c28a-6de8-477e-aeaf-3d30c07b3f7d","kind":"math","order":109,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Total Parameters}=10\\mathrm{T}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_23e87de9-156b-436e-b642-97ba7fadc14c","kind":"paragraph","order":110,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"で、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f87f9321-0e88-4b1a-b383-b597bcca66ec","kind":"math","order":111,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Active Parameters}=100\\mathrm{B}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a8748cd4-75dc-449e-9413-bee6cbee13e7","kind":"paragraph","order":112,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"なら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5073b73a-f499-4279-a345-024a70dff8c9","kind":"math","order":113,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\frac{\\text{Total Parameters}}{\\text{Active Parameters}}=\\frac{10\\mathrm{T}}{100\\mathrm{B}}=100}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b81cb775-4845-4a3c-9035-edff7c0948bd","kind":"paragraph","order":114,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_842374bc-9193-44f4-bac3-c039297308db","kind":"paragraph","order":115,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"非常に効率よく見える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f92d6cf-0479-47c5-9766-b52857537322","kind":"paragraph","order":116,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし全10兆parameterのweightはどこかに置いておかなければならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d4f1783-5344-4d99-83c8-9aebf7f0c4e0","kind":"paragraph","order":117,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらにtokenごとに異なるExpertが選択されるため、必要Expertが別GPUにあればtokenやintermediate dataをnetworkで送らなければならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3e03330c-377a-4647-890d-660fbc851719","kind":"paragraph","order":118,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1298a234-a86a-4454-8941-f70d93f6a02d","kind":"math","order":119,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Total}/\\text{Active}\\uparrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f272031-cbbb-4a92-9fb3-cd719faab99d","kind":"paragraph","order":120,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0d663440-d86d-4542-85df-7e66d7b3136b","kind":"math","order":121,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Compute/token}\\downarrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d752d369-ffff-4ea9-8f93-6d91770450cc","kind":"paragraph","order":122,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"を抑える一方で、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9892825e-f0a0-4a25-bc35-8d5cd9af1444","kind":"math","order":123,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Expert Routing Complexity}\\uparrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_327090a4-a75a-4618-bee3-ddc03eaa520f","kind":"paragraph","order":124,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"と","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_129f61ff-cf97-46f5-b2e1-26cd50384854","kind":"math","order":125,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Fabric Traffic}\\uparrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ecf999c-e13b-42d8-a470-7c07670ca68a","kind":"paragraph","order":126,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"を増やしやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9bc32ee-21f1-4d89-a0cb-9d305326fd5d","kind":"math","order":127,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Total}/\\text{Active}\\uparrow\\Rightarrow\\text{Compute/token}\\downarrow,\\quad\\text{Fabric Traffic}\\uparrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9d0e51c5-b37a-4b59-9769-34b599695ddf","kind":"paragraph","order":128,"section_id":"sec_61f5267a-b075-4937-bf06-5fa583c29486","character_id":null,"markdown":"MoEを疎にすればするほどNVLink、UALink、Ethernet Scale-Up、UnifiedBus、Optical Fabricなどの価値が高くなる理由である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b76c106-ecee-43f5-a808-1315d6008f8b","kind":"heading","order":129,"section_id":"sec_ba02659c-9686-498a-ac1b-c07be6954978","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜MoEが増やすFabric通信","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5d5d69c-1ac6-4c32-874c-85b3cc36520c","kind":"figure","order":130,"section_id":"sec_ba02659c-9686-498a-ac1b-c07be6954978","character_id":null,"markdown":"![MoEが増やすFabric通信 01](/media/408b1153652610f96e609084fb007520712b5c2ff5bcf4efe4dfed346330efd2-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b4a3dbe5-1f0a-437e-8b43-44bd7473bf41","kind":"heading","order":131,"section_id":"sec_f0f0b49a-5476-4f86-97e4-5776250d8f1b","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 8．Training Tokensは「脳の大きさ」ではなく「読ませた教材量」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_adaa34e3-d351-44ff-9d66-449b61d3764f","kind":"paragraph","order":132,"section_id":"sec_f0f0b49a-5476-4f86-97e4-5776250d8f1b","character_id":null,"markdown":"ParametersとTraining Tokensはまったく違う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71b80e5a-e256-4644-b44c-bdf2fdc26f6c","kind":"paragraph","order":133,"section_id":"sec_f0f0b49a-5476-4f86-97e4-5776250d8f1b","character_id":null,"markdown":"Parametersは学習可能なweight、つまりモデルのcapacityである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6eb3b21f-a277-4321-a2c2-27470e9d37fe","kind":"paragraph","order":134,"section_id":"sec_f0f0b49a-5476-4f86-97e4-5776250d8f1b","character_id":null,"markdown":"Training Tokensは学習時にモデルが読んだ情報量である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_301a272a-f6a7-453b-8ac6-2592c8472014","kind":"paragraph","order":135,"section_id":"sec_f0f0b49a-5476-4f86-97e4-5776250d8f1b","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大なparameterを用意しても、十分なdataを与えなければ能力を引き出せない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_911b5632-05b4-49cd-a7a6-7bd471dd186d","kind":"paragraph","order":136,"section_id":"sec_f0f0b49a-5476-4f86-97e4-5776250d8f1b","character_id":null,"markdown":"Chinchilla scaling lawが示した重要な点は、compute budgetを増やすとき、model sizeだけではなくtraining dataも増やす必要があるということだった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ca673c64-a94b-4826-8b8e-7fe9ed42fd86","kind":"paragraph","order":137,"section_id":"sec_f0f0b49a-5476-4f86-97e4-5776250d8f1b","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらに現在は、「Training Tokensを何兆にするか」だけでなく、何を読ませるかが極めて重要になっている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6c2e8923-9f4a-4910-b4d6-4120cc4761ea","kind":"paragraph","order":138,"section_id":"sec_f0f0b49a-5476-4f86-97e4-5776250d8f1b","character_id":null,"markdown":"MetaはLlama 3を15兆token以上でpretrainしたが、単純にWebを大量投入しただけではない。heuristic filtering、semantic deduplication、quality classifierなどを使ってdata品質を管理し、異なるdata sourceのmixまで調整している。 (AI Meta)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9271efff-f4a4-4fba-a9d6-c555f93862c1","kind":"paragraph","order":139,"section_id":"sec_f0f0b49a-5476-4f86-97e4-5776250d8f1b","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってモデル性能は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e1b7683e-6f4a-4d65-b32c-340090aaeba1","kind":"math","order":140,"section_id":"sec_f0f0b49a-5476-4f86-97e4-5776250d8f1b","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Performance}=f(\\text{Parameters},\\text{Training Tokens},\\text{Data Quality},\\text{Architecture},\\text{Post-training},\\text{Inference Compute})}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_16ce70d2-fb8b-4698-b50d-2e695ba2d0f6","kind":"math","order":141,"section_id":"sec_f0f0b49a-5476-4f86-97e4-5776250d8f1b","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Performance}=f(\\text{Model},\\text{Data},\\text{Training},\\text{Inference})}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_17fd60a0-495e-4537-a2c7-34effe69140e","kind":"math","order":142,"section_id":"sec_f0f0b49a-5476-4f86-97e4-5776250d8f1b","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Model Performance}\\neq f(\\text{Parameters only})}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ac14eead-d1f1-4216-9cde-0c618bcba3a6","kind":"paragraph","order":143,"section_id":"sec_f0f0b49a-5476-4f86-97e4-5776250d8f1b","character_id":null,"markdown":"と考えるべきである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ecfc5e20-9c1b-41a6-80a2-d2d47c3685cb","kind":"paragraph","order":144,"section_id":"sec_f0f0b49a-5476-4f86-97e4-5776250d8f1b","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のモデルが賢くなっている理由はparameter増大だけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3d43bd5b-44e7-4523-bf03-958fa964958c","kind":"paragraph","order":145,"section_id":"sec_f0f0b49a-5476-4f86-97e4-5776250d8f1b","character_id":null,"markdown":"より大量の、より質の高いdataを、より良いarchitectureで学習し、さらにRLやreasoning trainingなどのpost-trainingを行うようになったことが大きい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6610f74a-e009-4e66-b941-3742e451caec","kind":"heading","order":146,"section_id":"sec_8601ed99-7351-4f5c-8e3c-17421ebbb2d5","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜ParametersとTraining Tokens","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_57c75ead-42d3-4524-98a6-5fb5695fe369","kind":"figure","order":147,"section_id":"sec_8601ed99-7351-4f5c-8e3c-17421ebbb2d5","character_id":null,"markdown":"![ParametersとTraining Tokens 01](/media/2893df6b971f99bb890ecb51bcaf79c50a9106fc9b2314da57bd202f5e5ee9a8-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5a00408-2ef3-4e81-b57e-9d30fe65eb8f","kind":"heading","order":148,"section_id":"sec_bd7d71a0-b908-4337-b830-47cd7211250a","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 9．現在のLLMは「巨大百科事典」なのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b3ae580a-d612-409b-8a4c-1981bd54d3c3","kind":"paragraph","order":149,"section_id":"sec_bd7d71a0-b908-4337-b830-47cd7211250a","character_id":null,"markdown":"半分正しく、半分間違っている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84bb3873-5bc6-45f0-a78a-49e97bdc5120","kind":"paragraph","order":150,"section_id":"sec_bd7d71a0-b908-4337-b830-47cd7211250a","character_id":null,"markdown":"LLM内部に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4786ce8b-fade-48a8-a31d-69cc94942dc3","kind":"paragraph","order":151,"section_id":"sec_bd7d71a0-b908-4337-b830-47cd7211250a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Apple = ...\nHBM = ...\n東京 = ...","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_161e9d7d-090e-43e6-8816-438f4e293bb5","kind":"paragraph","order":152,"section_id":"sec_bd7d71a0-b908-4337-b830-47cd7211250a","character_id":null,"markdown":"というdatabaseが直接格納されているわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2273ad5f-f9e4-4044-b975-3b754b701a6c","kind":"paragraph","order":153,"section_id":"sec_bd7d71a0-b908-4337-b830-47cd7211250a","character_id":null,"markdown":"知識、言語規則、世界の構造、推論patternなどが数千億・数兆個のweightへ分散表現として圧縮されている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd833ef9-22cf-4187-9b9e-209cd95dfcde","kind":"paragraph","order":154,"section_id":"sec_bd7d71a0-b908-4337-b830-47cd7211250a","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって現在のLLMは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_44b4c25a-3d67-4c54-a743-2941afd2a02b","kind":"paragraph","order":155,"section_id":"sec_bd7d71a0-b908-4337-b830-47cd7211250a","character_id":null,"markdown":"「巨大に圧縮された百科事典」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e5081d5-0324-4d28-86e8-db34dca6847f","kind":"paragraph","order":156,"section_id":"sec_bd7d71a0-b908-4337-b830-47cd7211250a","character_id":null,"markdown":"であると同時に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73b24333-94fc-4ac6-b0bb-49e370b63cf6","kind":"paragraph","order":157,"section_id":"sec_bd7d71a0-b908-4337-b830-47cd7211250a","character_id":null,"markdown":"「その知識を変換・組み合わせる推論回路」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_08fa4cf5-fd26-4351-98ac-a4b2f3c85442","kind":"paragraph","order":158,"section_id":"sec_bd7d71a0-b908-4337-b830-47cd7211250a","character_id":null,"markdown":"でもある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eff74715-f771-4107-9c1c-5d8b9367b01c","kind":"paragraph","order":159,"section_id":"sec_bd7d71a0-b908-4337-b830-47cd7211250a","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、今後すべての知識をparametersへ押し込むことが最適とは限らない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b2e8e6a5-04e5-495f-b82c-a56e487c0ef2","kind":"paragraph","order":160,"section_id":"sec_bd7d71a0-b908-4337-b830-47cd7211250a","character_id":null,"markdown":"今日の株価、最新ニュース、企業IR、個人の過去会話などは外部memoryへ置き、必要時にRAG、検索、database、toolを通じて取り出した方がよい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1cb18b08-8d7b-443f-a252-7709c319056b","kind":"paragraph","order":161,"section_id":"sec_bd7d71a0-b908-4337-b830-47cd7211250a","character_id":null,"markdown":"するとLLM本体は「すべてを覚えた百科事典」から、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6befeab5-d429-4103-9f12-583c5b5527d8","kind":"paragraph","order":162,"section_id":"sec_bd7d71a0-b908-4337-b830-47cd7211250a","character_id":null,"markdown":"強力な推論・検索・統合engine","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_940661ad-901f-4eb8-aa04-e60b3c93ad15","kind":"paragraph","order":163,"section_id":"sec_bd7d71a0-b908-4337-b830-47cd7211250a","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ寄っていく可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_65b2d59b-c46b-4125-8079-2c77ed28f2f0","kind":"heading","order":164,"section_id":"sec_70901751-79ff-493c-9bdf-a0b8aef6c241","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜知識圧縮器と推論エンジン","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d09f122f-f082-48f4-979d-34344e592c1c","kind":"figure","order":165,"section_id":"sec_70901751-79ff-493c-9bdf-a0b8aef6c241","character_id":null,"markdown":"![知識圧縮器と推論エンジン 01](/media/6fdb756fc60a0e8e2a25c04a43aebf07ae5cad43ef8c7f8dbc8fecd38b307a93-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4535abe1-11e5-4a43-a56b-bbc4e42d8ab9","kind":"heading","order":166,"section_id":"sec_f470c0bb-dc92-4892-9316-1c0771e8f3fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 10．MHAとは「過去のどこを見るか」を複数の視点で判断する仕組み","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_99876f2d-4167-46b3-8d55-0172096c29b1","kind":"paragraph","order":167,"section_id":"sec_f470c0bb-dc92-4892-9316-1c0771e8f3fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"Transformer Attentionでは現在tokenからQuery、過去tokenからKeyとValueを生成する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_58079f02-7015-4ef2-ba1d-a158aac41fe5","kind":"paragraph","order":168,"section_id":"sec_f470c0bb-dc92-4892-9316-1c0771e8f3fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"Queryは「何を探しているか」、Keyは「私はどんな情報か」、Valueは「実際に渡す内容」と考えればよい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_edc19730-eeb6-4eb1-89e3-1353290541ec","kind":"paragraph","order":169,"section_id":"sec_f470c0bb-dc92-4892-9316-1c0771e8f3fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"Multi-Head Attention（MHA）はこの検索を複数headで並行して行う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ff703a2-f856-4bb7-a4f1-c9c9b4605f6e","kind":"paragraph","order":170,"section_id":"sec_f470c0bb-dc92-4892-9316-1c0771e8f3fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"あるheadは文法、別のheadは人物関係、別のheadは時間関係など、異なるpatternを学習できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4cddd182-e37c-44c8-ad8e-6a8b06d9903d","kind":"paragraph","order":171,"section_id":"sec_f470c0bb-dc92-4892-9316-1c0771e8f3fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"ところがMHAでは各Query headに対応したKey/Valueを保存する必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_48be3e30-14f0-4a70-82fc-e11a36f3ccfd","kind":"paragraph","order":172,"section_id":"sec_f470c0bb-dc92-4892-9316-1c0771e8f3fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"長いcontextでは、このK/Vが大量に蓄積される。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_47565868-f205-459b-8e55-f19108e8d66b","kind":"paragraph","order":173,"section_id":"sec_f470c0bb-dc92-4892-9316-1c0771e8f3fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"これがKV cacheである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a03bcdbd-def6-459b-bd3b-de28b5afbab6","kind":"heading","order":174,"section_id":"sec_0a47448a-403d-403d-8c90-a245ddd6668f","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜MHAとKV cache","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15636965-371e-4a60-a14e-52c9f5cd1dbc","kind":"figure","order":175,"section_id":"sec_0a47448a-403d-403d-8c90-a245ddd6668f","character_id":null,"markdown":"![MHAとKV cache 01](/media/97fc9153394f9bd2a143373963e5b4b24156a767c99fda097dad905e28915124-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b9faa75-a2d2-473a-8b4f-d39b0d446fd9","kind":"heading","order":176,"section_id":"sec_e090439b-d96a-4659-8f3e-fce2b334744e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 11．GQAはKV cacheを減らす","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f19cd3a-064f-4de3-bb87-6d96f96770b9","kind":"paragraph","order":177,"section_id":"sec_e090439b-d96a-4659-8f3e-fce2b334744e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Grouped-Query Attention（GQA）は、複数のQuery headで同じK/V headを共有する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66705cfb-e672-4978-98b9-e31d561ce75b","kind":"paragraph","order":178,"section_id":"sec_e090439b-d96a-4659-8f3e-fce2b334744e","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えばMHAで64 Query heads、64 KV headsだったものを、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4b1ef610-4f23-4b43-9922-7fdb1ea7ea5a","kind":"paragraph","order":179,"section_id":"sec_e090439b-d96a-4659-8f3e-fce2b334744e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Q1 ┐\nQ2 ├── KV1\nQ3 ┤\nQ4 ┘","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4121ae8d-4725-4ae1-bd20-f439a763e469","kind":"paragraph","order":180,"section_id":"sec_e090439b-d96a-4659-8f3e-fce2b334744e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Q5 ┐\nQ6 ├── KV2\nQ7 ┤\nQ8 ┘","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2dd85451-3d29-4b4c-a577-a7aebd542dcc","kind":"paragraph","order":181,"section_id":"sec_e090439b-d96a-4659-8f3e-fce2b334744e","character_id":null,"markdown":"のようにできる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b07a018a-bf1d-4107-a379-dd94d4680bf0","kind":"paragraph","order":182,"section_id":"sec_e090439b-d96a-4659-8f3e-fce2b334744e","character_id":null,"markdown":"GoogleのGQA論文は、KV headを1個だけにするMQAに近い推論速度を保ちながら、MHAに近い品質を目指す中間方式としてGQAを提案した。 (arXiv)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c2182b33-409f-4212-a235-49063b6ed7b8","kind":"paragraph","order":183,"section_id":"sec_e090439b-d96a-4659-8f3e-fce2b334744e","character_id":null,"markdown":"これはlong-context時代には極めて大きい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f779e11-d811-492c-afe5-9e4d63042fdb","kind":"paragraph","order":184,"section_id":"sec_e090439b-d96a-4659-8f3e-fce2b334744e","character_id":null,"markdown":"contextが10倍になれば、基本的にはKV cacheも10倍になるためである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a2d8e194-d137-4e2e-b5fd-54322f0e024d","kind":"heading","order":185,"section_id":"sec_18b19552-39eb-437e-a212-802a2e5092dd","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜GQAによるKV共有","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_048b8dd0-2b8b-4919-8bdd-a6258d4716f9","kind":"figure","order":186,"section_id":"sec_18b19552-39eb-437e-a212-802a2e5092dd","character_id":null,"markdown":"![GQAによるKV共有 01](/media/f6ed2129aa9442e0f609a90e11b927bdbf779b257be020ed343498d615d1a125-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e546a72-8037-4305-8a71-23863ea7ce2a","kind":"heading","order":187,"section_id":"sec_2933c382-74a9-480b-8092-ad8967d3d8fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 12．DeepSeekのMLAはさらにKVを圧縮する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4a6b1a03-96e0-4f83-9a78-814375bf6100","kind":"paragraph","order":188,"section_id":"sec_2933c382-74a9-480b-8092-ad8967d3d8fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"DeepSeek-V2が導入したMulti-head Latent Attention（MLA）は、K/Vそのものを大量に保存する代わりに、低次元latent representationへ圧縮する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_75b1651b-ef0e-47da-a069-1b68c8b2c89b","kind":"paragraph","order":189,"section_id":"sec_2933c382-74a9-480b-8092-ad8967d3d8fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"DeepSeekはV2について、従来方式に比べKV cacheを93.3%削減し、maximum generation throughputを5.76倍にしたと報告している。 (arXiv)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d65625a9-5101-4d46-a92b-0a514df5d941","kind":"paragraph","order":190,"section_id":"sec_2933c382-74a9-480b-8092-ad8967d3d8fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは「無料の圧縮」ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e7a53c6-1049-44ac-a140-9bf0fc724f08","kind":"paragraph","order":191,"section_id":"sec_2933c382-74a9-480b-8092-ad8967d3d8fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"K/Vを圧縮・復元するためのprojection計算が必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f4b4ac37-5b27-4a47-a613-1b4bc4dab4f2","kind":"paragraph","order":192,"section_id":"sec_2933c382-74a9-480b-8092-ad8967d3d8fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_940d578d-32d3-4a85-80fb-446ae845b84d","kind":"paragraph","order":193,"section_id":"sec_2933c382-74a9-480b-8092-ad8967d3d8fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"memory bandwidthを節約する代わりにcomputeを使う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e13a5dad-59e7-4d0d-91bb-daa2e9853f90","kind":"paragraph","order":194,"section_id":"sec_2933c382-74a9-480b-8092-ad8967d3d8fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のAI acceleratorではTensor演算能力の伸びに対してmemory bandwidthが不足しやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a8754caa-2a82-4246-b755-d349adfc31b7","kind":"paragraph","order":195,"section_id":"sec_2933c382-74a9-480b-8092-ad8967d3d8fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d11100ff-4f2e-4f27-8dfc-a280421227c5","kind":"math","order":196,"section_id":"sec_2933c382-74a9-480b-8092-ad8967d3d8fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Memory Access}\\downarrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_32353c8b-3ce8-45ca-9f1d-37cd3b4a03c2","kind":"paragraph","order":197,"section_id":"sec_2933c382-74a9-480b-8092-ad8967d3d8fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"と引き換えに、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2338f5ca-0684-451b-99c3-384ad44adba1","kind":"math","order":198,"section_id":"sec_2933c382-74a9-480b-8092-ad8967d3d8fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Compute}\\uparrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3948e5f2-360d-4f96-adc2-e8107b35923e","kind":"paragraph","order":199,"section_id":"sec_2933c382-74a9-480b-8092-ad8967d3d8fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"となるMLAはhardware architectureと非常に相性がよい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a83117c3-2486-493c-a138-7b15357123f5","kind":"math","order":200,"section_id":"sec_2933c382-74a9-480b-8092-ad8967d3d8fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Memory Access}\\downarrow\\quad\\Longleftrightarrow\\quad\\text{Compute}\\uparrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bdd64bf7-df6f-4bde-bd6e-4c6a5a72459d","kind":"paragraph","order":201,"section_id":"sec_2933c382-74a9-480b-8092-ad8967d3d8fc","character_id":null,"markdown":"Hardware-centricな分析でも、MLAはmemory bandwidth負荷を減らし、workloadをよりcompute-bound側へ移せることが示されている。 (arXiv)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a46e101f-e2f1-4048-a8e6-00b3c6c7e85f","kind":"heading","order":202,"section_id":"sec_e193eb78-df16-45ec-aae3-af078442df2e","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜MLAのKV圧縮","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d177c92-384d-401c-a4dd-573de98e645c","kind":"figure","order":203,"section_id":"sec_e193eb78-df16-45ec-aae3-af078442df2e","character_id":null,"markdown":"![MLAのKV圧縮 01](/media/18c65cefca68084f0352cb3454524d503ef7a265fb767765304160ca3bb4931c-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0a9fb7a6-78ea-494e-a586-a182339bf686","kind":"heading","order":204,"section_id":"sec_eae28553-1bed-4c29-9d8a-51723e99b5ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 13．「コンテキスト圧縮」には複数の種類がある","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd373989-e9b1-48ef-b157-ee9b9db22c6c","kind":"paragraph","order":205,"section_id":"sec_eae28553-1bed-4c29-9d8a-51723e99b5ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIのmemoryを理解するとき、Text compressionとKV compressionを混同してはいけない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7b44a51a-3e63-4307-b022-36173cfb4883","kind":"paragraph","order":206,"section_id":"sec_eae28553-1bed-4c29-9d8a-51723e99b5ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えば過去10万tokenのconversationがあるとする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_133948de-6c1a-47de-8ad5-f6afa36bd385","kind":"paragraph","order":207,"section_id":"sec_eae28553-1bed-4c29-9d8a-51723e99b5ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"Text compressionでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_faa553a8-0d15-4679-8d26-b690f15eae74","kind":"paragraph","order":208,"section_id":"sec_eae28553-1bed-4c29-9d8a-51723e99b5ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"100,000 token\n↓\n重要情報を要約\n↓\n5,000 token","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e6a90697-45fa-4c03-a50c-6949630cfe54","kind":"paragraph","order":209,"section_id":"sec_eae28553-1bed-4c29-9d8a-51723e99b5ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"と、tokenそのものを減らす。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_720b0d51-d3cb-43cc-8fc1-8c56102ca824","kind":"paragraph","order":210,"section_id":"sec_eae28553-1bed-4c29-9d8a-51723e99b5ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方、GQAやMLAは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_11b8ccdf-9f57-4018-a78e-1aa7e274d240","kind":"paragraph","order":211,"section_id":"sec_eae28553-1bed-4c29-9d8a-51723e99b5ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"100,000 token","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5909dfce-2a1e-4f73-8957-6de149739e85","kind":"paragraph","order":212,"section_id":"sec_eae28553-1bed-4c29-9d8a-51723e99b5ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"自体は残したまま、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6cf9c31-6f64-4150-8493-0b34180adfa4","kind":"paragraph","order":213,"section_id":"sec_eae28553-1bed-4c29-9d8a-51723e99b5ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"1 tokenあたりの内部memory表現を小さくする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b2a3c78-045d-425d-b366-6abf260d2512","kind":"paragraph","order":214,"section_id":"sec_eae28553-1bed-4c29-9d8a-51723e99b5ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらにrecurrent/SSM系architectureでは、過去token列を固定サイズに近いstateへ順次畳み込む方法もある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eb95137c-1713-44bd-aa35-6bbb66673583","kind":"paragraph","order":215,"section_id":"sec_eae28553-1bed-4c29-9d8a-51723e99b5ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりcontext compressionには、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_abb68695-3bb3-4217-86ce-d3371fc9a2ff","kind":"paragraph","order":216,"section_id":"sec_eae28553-1bed-4c29-9d8a-51723e99b5ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"文章自体を要約する方法","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8bec78b1-160e-40af-96bb-23f0f7a94554","kind":"paragraph","order":217,"section_id":"sec_eae28553-1bed-4c29-9d8a-51723e99b5ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"と、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_62a89dc2-1203-48b4-b2b7-6dde66e61a3b","kind":"paragraph","order":218,"section_id":"sec_eae28553-1bed-4c29-9d8a-51723e99b5ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"内部KV representationを圧縮する方法","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef815aca-fae6-46b1-bd2b-0d85a2f10bdd","kind":"paragraph","order":219,"section_id":"sec_eae28553-1bed-4c29-9d8a-51723e99b5ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"と、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_96d31fcb-7a48-4133-ba97-a4024fe2ec03","kind":"paragraph","order":220,"section_id":"sec_eae28553-1bed-4c29-9d8a-51723e99b5ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"過去全体をrecurrent stateへ畳み込む方法","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e6f71e42-3621-4846-a3b8-9ebb1a17d941","kind":"paragraph","order":221,"section_id":"sec_eae28553-1bed-4c29-9d8a-51723e99b5ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_98a3b010-172e-4aa7-a7c0-9d6a2dac61a4","kind":"paragraph","order":222,"section_id":"sec_eae28553-1bed-4c29-9d8a-51723e99b5ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"これらは競合せず、同時に使える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b13ab540-7e7a-4a1c-b219-3c6f9418bc60","kind":"heading","order":223,"section_id":"sec_fe49b8b4-c5ff-402b-95fd-15d401a2649e","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜複数のコンテキスト圧縮","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_42dd73a4-7c18-4db6-a7bd-593d90053b0d","kind":"figure","order":224,"section_id":"sec_fe49b8b4-c5ff-402b-95fd-15d401a2649e","character_id":null,"markdown":"![複数のコンテキスト圧縮 01](/media/1a7a5d214cdf0b27c54ba7a84545d999a31156c119d21a68350e847c75969736-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eafc2a06-ef80-40eb-aef7-f854612361ef","kind":"heading","order":225,"section_id":"sec_ccb6c68f-af72-466c-9942-195087eff4af","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 14．しかし圧縮すれば必ず情報を失う","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_741ecb5d-f95f-4e91-b38a-2719adcf173a","kind":"paragraph","order":226,"section_id":"sec_ccb6c68f-af72-466c-9942-195087eff4af","character_id":null,"markdown":"10万tokenを1000tokenへsummary化したら、当然9万9000token分の細かな情報は消える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19c0cc6b-f7f7-47d5-99c3-091142be3b99","kind":"paragraph","order":227,"section_id":"sec_ccb6c68f-af72-466c-9942-195087eff4af","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって理想的なAI memory systemでは、圧縮したからといって原文を削除しない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6a2eac42-2ec8-417b-9b7d-f5bd43a1d1c3","kind":"paragraph","order":228,"section_id":"sec_ccb6c68f-af72-466c-9942-195087eff4af","character_id":null,"markdown":"Raw history\n100,000 token\n      │\n      ├── SSD / Object Storageへ保存\n      │\n      ↓\nCompact Summary\n5,000 token\n      ↓\nActive Context","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc826c32-b4b3-4533-b3b1-de9a983eba47","kind":"paragraph","order":229,"section_id":"sec_ccb6c68f-af72-466c-9942-195087eff4af","character_id":null,"markdown":"普段はsummaryだけを使う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_497f4d04-c2c2-4e65-b5ab-37185a17e348","kind":"paragraph","order":230,"section_id":"sec_ccb6c68f-af72-466c-9942-195087eff4af","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要なときだけraw historyを検索して、該当部分をもう一度contextへ戻す。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e90aeb51-ff18-4ea3-a3b2-050f19096423","kind":"paragraph","order":231,"section_id":"sec_ccb6c68f-af72-466c-9942-195087eff4af","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは「忘れた」のではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b34d8fe7-26af-4c04-8fc1-6005a57c13e9","kind":"paragraph","order":232,"section_id":"sec_ccb6c68f-af72-466c-9942-195087eff4af","character_id":null,"markdown":"机の上の資料を本棚へ戻したのである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_441dbd67-83f8-4803-b271-80a077ddf4ee","kind":"heading","order":233,"section_id":"sec_c5091d57-c675-4e65-bfa0-0b7a06f275d9","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜圧縮と原文保持の階層","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad06cb05-d8aa-442b-8eab-3b5440484092","kind":"figure","order":234,"section_id":"sec_c5091d57-c675-4e65-bfa0-0b7a06f275d9","character_id":null,"markdown":"![圧縮と原文保持の階層 01](/media/0619c58b0d047122cb76c110752cdae6db00258014658ee07c8c9d73d7f6e90a-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd296037-8ac4-4424-9005-0cfff04286bd","kind":"heading","order":235,"section_id":"sec_75fec76d-3598-48ab-a3fe-739693c6772c","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 15．長期記憶、作業記憶、短期記憶をhardwareへ振り分けるのはSoftwareである","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9f2d115a-b9df-4562-8374-62172f8ccfff","kind":"paragraph","order":236,"section_id":"sec_75fec76d-3598-48ab-a3fe-739693c6772c","character_id":null,"markdown":"この点は非常に重要である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_72bda759-c8e0-4ab8-a734-f76c80adff0d","kind":"paragraph","order":237,"section_id":"sec_75fec76d-3598-48ab-a3fe-739693c6772c","character_id":null,"markdown":"LLM自身がHBM controllerを操作して、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7e87be31-6c1f-469d-bc5e-29739123e0c0","kind":"paragraph","order":238,"section_id":"sec_75fec76d-3598-48ab-a3fe-739693c6772c","character_id":null,"markdown":"「これはHBM」「これはSSD」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d894f5c4-d610-4a26-8f90-7f44bfa088a8","kind":"paragraph","order":239,"section_id":"sec_75fec76d-3598-48ab-a3fe-739693c6772c","character_id":null,"markdown":"と決めるわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_caae02e4-88e4-49c4-80fa-86d53d28880f","kind":"paragraph","order":240,"section_id":"sec_75fec76d-3598-48ab-a3fe-739693c6772c","character_id":null,"markdown":"概念的には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1f76200e-21ce-4241-afdc-401814ef7fe5","kind":"paragraph","order":241,"section_id":"sec_75fec76d-3598-48ab-a3fe-739693c6772c","character_id":null,"markdown":"LLM / Agent\n    ↓\nMemory Policy / Orchestrator\n    ↓\nInference Runtime\n    ↓\nDriver / OS\n    ↓\nHBM / DRAM / SSD / Remote Memory","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_714caa67-152a-47a0-970b-0514780b6d26","kind":"paragraph","order":242,"section_id":"sec_75fec76d-3598-48ab-a3fe-739693c6772c","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b280e11-56c8-46a5-92bc-a90d793eacba","kind":"paragraph","order":243,"section_id":"sec_75fec76d-3598-48ab-a3fe-739693c6772c","character_id":null,"markdown":"softwareが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8a2c10d3-b44f-485c-88a8-14a13d957ae3","kind":"paragraph","order":244,"section_id":"sec_75fec76d-3598-48ab-a3fe-739693c6772c","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在使っているKVはHBM、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cea484b1-8794-452e-b1c3-0cc65301a486","kind":"paragraph","order":245,"section_id":"sec_75fec76d-3598-48ab-a3fe-739693c6772c","character_id":null,"markdown":"最近使ったKVはhost DRAM、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0be47754-81c2-4553-8630-1b54f3ec0475","kind":"paragraph","order":246,"section_id":"sec_75fec76d-3598-48ab-a3fe-739693c6772c","character_id":null,"markdown":"古いKVはSSD、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f014bbe8-2a26-4486-9db2-89ba37d5cde7","kind":"paragraph","order":247,"section_id":"sec_75fec76d-3598-48ab-a3fe-739693c6772c","character_id":null,"markdown":"raw conversationはobject storage、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_83bd81c8-7b38-46d5-825f-9581015c17c3","kind":"paragraph","order":248,"section_id":"sec_75fec76d-3598-48ab-a3fe-739693c6772c","character_id":null,"markdown":"といったpolicyを実行する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b7ff4e38-4fdc-4be9-a4b3-7e92568e677f","kind":"paragraph","order":249,"section_id":"sec_75fec76d-3598-48ab-a3fe-739693c6772c","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際NVIDIA DynamoのKVBMは、GPU memory、host DRAM、remote RDMA memory、SSD、remote/object storageを一つの階層型KV memoryとして扱う設計になっている。Device→Host→Disk→Object Storageというtieringと、必要なKV blockを再びdeviceへonboardする機構を備えている。 (NVIDIA Docs)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01abd696-9ebc-4598-87fe-583a5930b04b","kind":"paragraph","order":250,"section_id":"sec_75fec76d-3598-48ab-a3fe-739693c6772c","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりこの未来像は研究上の空想ではなく、software stack側ではすでに実装が始まっている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4b8578be-bf5b-4c49-b661-28fc4bb91292","kind":"heading","order":251,"section_id":"sec_b1da8ad3-1b92-4170-bf43-9fc7e68fb904","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Softwareが決める記憶配置","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e1deb0a7-cc9f-4c0a-96ca-7bcf3756cee5","kind":"figure","order":252,"section_id":"sec_b1da8ad3-1b92-4170-bf43-9fc7e68fb904","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Softwareが決める記憶配置 01](/media/664c1e877fe63274d4b8709d36e5ab903c8b5ad03ec5cc20fb5cf03902867f9c-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_be2e7447-a9a7-44b1-86e2-de5d4d4ca77b","kind":"heading","order":253,"section_id":"sec_f286598b-897d-4695-ba6c-7f25fdcdb695","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 16．モデルが「必要な記憶を思い出す」とき、実際には何が起きるのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f31ce317-90e8-4d09-b93a-f593ec3cef51","kind":"paragraph","order":254,"section_id":"sec_f286598b-897d-4695-ba6c-7f25fdcdb695","character_id":null,"markdown":"人間のように突然脳内の記憶が蘇るわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b649d9a4-eb46-49b0-b301-d71346ab8d1c","kind":"paragraph","order":255,"section_id":"sec_f286598b-897d-4695-ba6c-7f25fdcdb695","character_id":null,"markdown":"典型的にはRetrieverやmemory toolが使われる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ddabb5c9-bc7b-4257-be0e-7f92638382fe","kind":"paragraph","order":256,"section_id":"sec_f286598b-897d-4695-ba6c-7f25fdcdb695","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えばモデルが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff2715fb-1e22-4015-9ee4-9a4a51e3ca3b","kind":"paragraph","order":257,"section_id":"sec_f286598b-897d-4695-ba6c-7f25fdcdb695","character_id":null,"markdown":"「以前決めたAPI仕様が必要だ」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1791131b-0460-41e1-8243-0016763f51b3","kind":"paragraph","order":258,"section_id":"sec_f286598b-897d-4695-ba6c-7f25fdcdb695","character_id":null,"markdown":"と判断した場合、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7bdde8f1-1490-4440-aa8b-55e86fdd8964","kind":"paragraph","order":259,"section_id":"sec_f286598b-897d-4695-ba6c-7f25fdcdb695","character_id":null,"markdown":"LLM\n ↓\nmemory_searchを要求\n ↓\nRetriever\n ↓\nVector Search / Keyword Search\n ↓\nReranker\n ↓\n関連Memory\n ↓\nDRAM / SSDから取得\n ↓\nTokenize\n ↓\nGPUへ転送\n ↓\nPrefill\n ↓\nKV生成\n ↓\nAttention可能","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_773363b1-e0bc-4940-9749-92e32242b790","kind":"paragraph","order":260,"section_id":"sec_f286598b-897d-4695-ba6c-7f25fdcdb695","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd2b2f81-7502-46fa-9ead-755d244b9f94","kind":"paragraph","order":261,"section_id":"sec_f286598b-897d-4695-ba6c-7f25fdcdb695","character_id":null,"markdown":"モデルが出すのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1193775d-29b1-47e8-99f9-d1afa045a78d","kind":"paragraph","order":262,"section_id":"sec_f286598b-897d-4695-ba6c-7f25fdcdb695","character_id":null,"markdown":"「この意味の情報が必要」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c6c0a0e-0ab4-4218-80ce-7c0d778a0863","kind":"paragraph","order":263,"section_id":"sec_f286598b-897d-4695-ba6c-7f25fdcdb695","character_id":null,"markdown":"というsemantic requestである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_751cff11-ebb9-4147-b400-c8f343453339","kind":"paragraph","order":264,"section_id":"sec_f286598b-897d-4695-ba6c-7f25fdcdb695","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際に「SSDの何番addressにあるか」を管理するのはMemory Managerである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a71691c8-2e76-4f51-b7ca-2688c4b14da2","kind":"paragraph","order":265,"section_id":"sec_f286598b-897d-4695-ba6c-7f25fdcdb695","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここでも、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01be5586-dfe5-496f-b543-62ee91e2c25d","kind":"paragraph","order":266,"section_id":"sec_f286598b-897d-4695-ba6c-7f25fdcdb695","character_id":null,"markdown":"意味を理解するAI","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_baf0ba9d-58fc-494c-b8c3-9c682a7c1f87","kind":"paragraph","order":267,"section_id":"sec_f286598b-897d-4695-ba6c-7f25fdcdb695","character_id":null,"markdown":"と、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_848feba0-cf39-4232-9c5a-d8a278a3ca84","kind":"paragraph","order":268,"section_id":"sec_f286598b-897d-4695-ba6c-7f25fdcdb695","character_id":null,"markdown":"bytesを動かすsystem software","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1072dddb-4f0c-4f9c-9255-7325602cf7eb","kind":"paragraph","order":269,"section_id":"sec_f286598b-897d-4695-ba6c-7f25fdcdb695","character_id":null,"markdown":"は分離している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a457fb5d-81f1-41b8-b4e8-8170b2a60a4d","kind":"heading","order":270,"section_id":"sec_de78e507-7dee-48c1-aa6a-52baeac22ee1","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜RetrieverとMemory Manager","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bdf290d9-7a06-4f76-8517-5b11734e05a5","kind":"figure","order":271,"section_id":"sec_de78e507-7dee-48c1-aa6a-52baeac22ee1","character_id":null,"markdown":"![RetrieverとMemory Manager 01](/media/f78941e70632eb03d4e61b4061ec57c9775f116f5fd961fa4ee92a8c3fe43fb6-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_11c4da9e-aff0-491d-a3e6-6773698661c7","kind":"heading","order":272,"section_id":"sec_66de967a-e992-4ab6-b179-2f1d3132658f","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 17．Memory RoutingはMoE Routingとよく似ている","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d48db5a1-59bd-4466-8c25-d5a77f3eada5","kind":"paragraph","order":273,"section_id":"sec_66de967a-e992-4ab6-b179-2f1d3132658f","character_id":null,"markdown":"MoEでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f9324f56-6744-4d1f-91ef-e4fd537c4b93","kind":"paragraph","order":274,"section_id":"sec_66de967a-e992-4ab6-b179-2f1d3132658f","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在token\n ↓\nExpert Router\n ↓\n必要Expertだけactivate","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_317e0422-dbdb-426b-a3fa-a4bfea1d7f28","kind":"paragraph","order":275,"section_id":"sec_66de967a-e992-4ab6-b179-2f1d3132658f","character_id":null,"markdown":"する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_afbf5a74-ba81-4801-94c0-944b4cee510e","kind":"paragraph","order":276,"section_id":"sec_66de967a-e992-4ab6-b179-2f1d3132658f","character_id":null,"markdown":"External Memoryでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c30b505-dfae-44f9-b14a-24a9ef7c93f2","kind":"paragraph","order":277,"section_id":"sec_66de967a-e992-4ab6-b179-2f1d3132658f","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在Task\n ↓\nMemory Retriever\n ↓\n必要Memoryだけretrieve","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_823a008a-07e4-405b-af38-6cb26edff221","kind":"paragraph","order":278,"section_id":"sec_66de967a-e992-4ab6-b179-2f1d3132658f","character_id":null,"markdown":"する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d56376e5-006e-49d4-88ee-be5586362656","kind":"paragraph","order":279,"section_id":"sec_66de967a-e992-4ab6-b179-2f1d3132658f","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって将来のAI systemは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a7704937-e3aa-4d71-814b-c16346262c87","kind":"paragraph","order":280,"section_id":"sec_66de967a-e992-4ab6-b179-2f1d3132658f","character_id":null,"markdown":"Current Task\n                     │\n         ┌───────────┴───────────┐\n         ↓                       ↓\n    Expert Router           Memory Router\n         ↓                       ↓\n   必要Expert                必要Memory\n         └───────────┬───────────┘\n                     ↓\n                  Compute","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_42713a8d-22dd-4ffb-868d-b42d59b168e9","kind":"paragraph","order":281,"section_id":"sec_66de967a-e992-4ab6-b179-2f1d3132658f","character_id":null,"markdown":"という二重のsparse systemになる可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a7e9dc01-b1a5-49d0-abd2-464d9815e073","kind":"paragraph","order":282,"section_id":"sec_66de967a-e992-4ab6-b179-2f1d3132658f","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大な能力すべてを動かさず、必要なExpertだけを動かす。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f41f1f07-98ba-40d3-9b60-59179eafa1b0","kind":"paragraph","order":283,"section_id":"sec_66de967a-e992-4ab6-b179-2f1d3132658f","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大な記憶すべてを読み込まず、必要なMemoryだけを読む。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4b845099-c914-4e3d-bfab-af0693e78f56","kind":"paragraph","order":284,"section_id":"sec_66de967a-e992-4ab6-b179-2f1d3132658f","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIのscalingは「全部巨大化する」方向から、「巨大な資源を必要な瞬間だけactivateする」方向へ変わりつつある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c584d275-24df-45b7-a19c-9a37f2324519","kind":"heading","order":285,"section_id":"sec_15978ef0-7330-4c00-9d00-0472af340f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜ExpertとMemoryの二重Routing","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f787dbd1-6b46-4895-a0b1-ce741241ef39","kind":"figure","order":286,"section_id":"sec_15978ef0-7330-4c00-9d00-0472af340f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"![ExpertとMemoryの二重Routing 01](/media/0b2f17ce6105768d4561ea906307b7f2a50b15a1007e202d9be2051f058887a6-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_49d1a30c-6710-4e59-8a00-8a104aa2e276","kind":"heading","order":287,"section_id":"sec_acea0eb4-dbbf-4f8b-acd5-a90d001cb748","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 18．その結果、AI memoryは階層構造になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9c06dc30-1625-4569-9e8d-13b0a74b0359","kind":"paragraph","order":288,"section_id":"sec_acea0eb4-dbbf-4f8b-acd5-a90d001cb748","character_id":null,"markdown":"将来的には、memory hierarchyを次のように考えるのが自然である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_472705d0-905d-4db5-bf63-db4f7e6cbbb2","kind":"paragraph","order":289,"section_id":"sec_acea0eb4-dbbf-4f8b-acd5-a90d001cb748","character_id":null,"markdown":"Register / SRAM\n      ↓\nLocal HBM\n      ↓\nPooled DRAM\n      ↓\nHBF / Large Memory\n      ↓\nNVMe SSD\n      ↓\nObject Storage","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b9edcbd-3379-49c2-a27d-42c40cc3894e","kind":"paragraph","order":290,"section_id":"sec_acea0eb4-dbbf-4f8b-acd5-a90d001cb748","character_id":null,"markdown":"SRAMには今この瞬間の演算で使うdata。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5bc1f3f9-4269-403b-a080-ff43e0df2571","kind":"paragraph","order":291,"section_id":"sec_acea0eb4-dbbf-4f8b-acd5-a90d001cb748","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMにはactive weight、active KV、activation。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0595c6c6-5cf9-4f72-aef4-b06c56ff2849","kind":"paragraph","order":292,"section_id":"sec_acea0eb4-dbbf-4f8b-acd5-a90d001cb748","character_id":null,"markdown":"DRAMにはwarm KV、最近使ったExpert、shared prefix。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7a9f4ad7-5d8e-4430-9a08-a05809ef2b14","kind":"paragraph","order":293,"section_id":"sec_acea0eb4-dbbf-4f8b-acd5-a90d001cb748","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBFや大容量memoryにはinactive Expertやより大きなwarm dataset。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a570921d-f60e-42f6-8a93-b4d4870e6582","kind":"paragraph","order":294,"section_id":"sec_acea0eb4-dbbf-4f8b-acd5-a90d001cb748","character_id":null,"markdown":"SSDにはcold KV、raw conversation、model shard、checkpoint。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_08d12edb-684f-438c-80dd-2080e4300728","kind":"paragraph","order":295,"section_id":"sec_acea0eb4-dbbf-4f8b-acd5-a90d001cb748","character_id":null,"markdown":"Object Storageには長期archiveやdataset。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2a0f6a22-30ad-4365-ac78-64d4c466f6e0","kind":"paragraph","order":296,"section_id":"sec_acea0eb4-dbbf-4f8b-acd5-a90d001cb748","character_id":null,"markdown":"というように、「重要度」ではなく次に必要になる確率と必要な速度で配置される。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3eebf7c9-ed36-44fc-bb99-4b2b47cc9b5a","kind":"heading","order":297,"section_id":"sec_6c8f5707-7160-49e8-a49e-33ea43a72da5","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜AI Memoryの多層構造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b2afecb-9c55-4c08-b7df-c7db0cf4c498","kind":"figure","order":298,"section_id":"sec_6c8f5707-7160-49e8-a49e-33ea43a72da5","character_id":null,"markdown":"![AI Memoryの多層構造 01](/media/e3113c6171bc5bef0eaf1fea410dde69d81f9491418aee4cf0d75d0f9a37a29e-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0daf2508-7357-4c95-bee5-00d8d3bf13b6","kind":"heading","order":299,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 19．HBMは消えるのではなく「AIの作業記憶」へ純化する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_97e3fe12-e7c1-4dd5-a078-7a3457b7d923","kind":"paragraph","order":300,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical pooled memoryが実用化すると、「HBMは不要になるのではないか」という疑問が出る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_942045fd-b54e-4d9d-876b-9bce84e33e07","kind":"paragraph","order":301,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしHBMの最大の価値は容量ではなく、XPU直近で非常に高い帯域を供給できる点にある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d75bf771-eae6-4fe7-b341-1e5224d29951","kind":"paragraph","order":302,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"Remote DRAMを何TB用意しても、GPUから数mm～数cmの場所で多数TB/sを出せるHBMと同じものにはならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8b6df950-4e16-4289-9e12-96f3ac22d4df","kind":"paragraph","order":303,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって将来、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_59e9c826-8953-4ce6-a1dd-153b0a883e37","kind":"paragraph","order":304,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在\nGPU + 288GB HBM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3b1bb9a6-d720-41f0-b507-c3ab0b7ac713","kind":"paragraph","order":305,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84a88f9a-e6e2-4974-ab76-0d5e00eac463","kind":"paragraph","order":306,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"将来\nGPU + 96GB Local HBM\n      +\n2TB Pooled DRAM/HBF\n      +\nSSD","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2fe2897c-cfdf-4f2c-840a-cc0a5df59ad0","kind":"paragraph","order":307,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"のような変化はあり得る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d12ad7e-f66a-481d-bc28-906948fd0023","kind":"paragraph","order":308,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは1 GPU当たりHBM容量には下押し要因になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_53855d04-f764-4dc0-a1bf-ea0858c1969b","kind":"paragraph","order":309,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方でHBMは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4901b300-a5e0-4ef9-b09b-f07e11670332","kind":"paragraph","order":310,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"「モデル全体を入れるmemory」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ba3e8bbc-aefa-477b-b01d-942bcecbc973","kind":"paragraph","order":311,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"から、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af512746-292b-471d-b740-1be9c9057c02","kind":"paragraph","order":312,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"「今絶対に必要なdataを最高速で供給するmemory」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_08c0750f-55bb-4b13-af7e-ad2e27a851a5","kind":"paragraph","order":313,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ変わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1a3bac16-5369-4a71-b4df-e357e6678c31","kind":"paragraph","order":314,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"言い換えればAI版の巨大なlast-level working-memory tierへ近づく。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bfcafa25-e7b7-4a59-81dc-0e40b537e34a","kind":"paragraph","order":315,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかもOptical Fabricによってmodel全体の容量制約が緩和されれば、XPU数そのものをさらに増やせる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0a09d31e-fab3-406d-851d-71fbe974a521","kind":"paragraph","order":316,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_69a50b55-2229-4fee-8cc3-c8d42926fe82","kind":"math","order":317,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Total HBM Demand}=\\text{XPU数}\\times\\text{HBM/XPU}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_575f8f47-ea91-4303-af4b-c36538b4e14b","kind":"math","order":318,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{総HBM需要}=\\text{XPU数}\\times\\text{XPU当たりHBM容量}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2970af98-3f0a-4b36-a81e-f95e4b8552f7","kind":"paragraph","order":319,"section_id":"sec_145d6137-f095-480b-a0ce-a3e6f9259eb6","character_id":null,"markdown":"で考える必要があり、「Optical Fabric＝HBM弱気」とは単純に言えない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c71bca01-5c6a-4ace-bac2-6af7af878a94","kind":"heading","order":320,"section_id":"sec_891a3600-624f-435e-83a2-1c2abab7fb99","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜HBMの作業記憶化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f9332c1f-665c-4665-9ae1-91dfa2bc0a1e","kind":"figure","order":321,"section_id":"sec_891a3600-624f-435e-83a2-1c2abab7fb99","character_id":null,"markdown":"![HBMの作業記憶化 01](/media/0cf4df0e47734671701bc29e1ec2d66efbd21c386d30b95194e639cb5268d75f-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d0eab669-ab61-4dbd-95a2-ad5026e70795","kind":"heading","order":322,"section_id":"sec_1cbc747e-36bb-4532-8f35-abd847683458","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 20．Optical Fabricの原理的な限界","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4115ab5a-5707-4c03-8a97-23f9526f38d2","kind":"paragraph","order":323,"section_id":"sec_1cbc747e-36bb-4532-8f35-abd847683458","character_id":null,"markdown":"光にも無限の性能はない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c0d0515-cfa5-4bf2-bf4d-0adffcfa8379","kind":"paragraph","order":324,"section_id":"sec_1cbc747e-36bb-4532-8f35-abd847683458","character_id":null,"markdown":"まず光速そのものに限界がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0079c3ee-cb58-41cb-a3df-7ac06669b368","kind":"paragraph","order":325,"section_id":"sec_1cbc747e-36bb-4532-8f35-abd847683458","character_id":null,"markdown":"fiber中では概算で1mあたり約5ns程度の伝搬遅延があるため、50mなら伝搬だけで約250nsとなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8350c350-560c-4383-a6b0-005c61c78885","kind":"paragraph","order":326,"section_id":"sec_1cbc747e-36bb-4532-8f35-abd847683458","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらに、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ac0db91-0406-4828-8ac9-1b2e89ab98ce","kind":"paragraph","order":327,"section_id":"sec_1cbc747e-36bb-4532-8f35-abd847683458","character_id":null,"markdown":"E/O変換、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a275ef78-9a71-4c55-a5f7-ddc456eec4d2","kind":"paragraph","order":328,"section_id":"sec_1cbc747e-36bb-4532-8f35-abd847683458","character_id":null,"markdown":"modulator、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ca41dfd0-b16e-432a-bf6e-8872d91e3338","kind":"paragraph","order":329,"section_id":"sec_1cbc747e-36bb-4532-8f35-abd847683458","character_id":null,"markdown":"optical switch、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b032042-41c0-45f3-aecb-8aa576ba43e0","kind":"paragraph","order":330,"section_id":"sec_1cbc747e-36bb-4532-8f35-abd847683458","character_id":null,"markdown":"O/E変換、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_403dc610-8fc3-4a31-a5b5-bb8c0a8a996a","kind":"paragraph","order":331,"section_id":"sec_1cbc747e-36bb-4532-8f35-abd847683458","character_id":null,"markdown":"SerDes、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a7a0a9fb-b565-4310-bcf5-6a4e3a03db59","kind":"paragraph","order":332,"section_id":"sec_1cbc747e-36bb-4532-8f35-abd847683458","character_id":null,"markdown":"memory controller、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_51d9925b-823b-4da1-9eb5-01376eecdba8","kind":"paragraph","order":333,"section_id":"sec_1cbc747e-36bb-4532-8f35-abd847683458","character_id":null,"markdown":"DRAM access","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_23c46c32-1abd-4ac4-83aa-c2149765076e","kind":"paragraph","order":334,"section_id":"sec_1cbc747e-36bb-4532-8f35-abd847683458","character_id":null,"markdown":"などが加わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d7b40511-0900-4e09-841c-0a6787d9821e","kind":"paragraph","order":335,"section_id":"sec_1cbc747e-36bb-4532-8f35-abd847683458","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってRemote MemoryをLocal HBMと同じlatencyにすることは原理的に難しい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1daa5fc9-3a38-4313-b276-f4ec66b5bc74","kind":"paragraph","order":336,"section_id":"sec_1cbc747e-36bb-4532-8f35-abd847683458","character_id":null,"markdown":"また光はdataを運ぶことには強いが、buffer、queue、cache、arithmetic、coherenceなどは電子回路が必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d56ba479-ae80-414a-af39-e21853d4ba9f","kind":"paragraph","order":337,"section_id":"sec_1cbc747e-36bb-4532-8f35-abd847683458","character_id":null,"markdown":"光にすればすべてが解決するわけではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6434d19c-793e-4010-80d4-b525c1003b7b","kind":"paragraph","order":338,"section_id":"sec_1cbc747e-36bb-4532-8f35-abd847683458","character_id":null,"markdown":"Electronicsで計算し、Photonicsで長距離transportし、再びElectronicsで保存・処理する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c471fed-3b88-489f-a692-e2396ec3682e","kind":"paragraph","order":339,"section_id":"sec_1cbc747e-36bb-4532-8f35-abd847683458","character_id":null,"markdown":"構造になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_df679859-2522-4aad-95dd-07d4ef687c4c","kind":"paragraph","order":340,"section_id":"sec_1cbc747e-36bb-4532-8f35-abd847683458","character_id":null,"markdown":"WDMを増やしてfiber当たり帯域を上げれば、laser power、wavelength stability、thermal tuning、crosstalk、modulator性能、receiver SNR、FECなど別の壁も現れる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2d0a6d82-3d3d-4d01-b63b-fef7af6d07bb","kind":"paragraph","order":341,"section_id":"sec_1cbc747e-36bb-4532-8f35-abd847683458","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりOptical Fabricにも次のscaling lawが存在する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_080ee0de-4b27-4a13-a5a2-9048ca32a01d","kind":"heading","order":342,"section_id":"sec_0452cfbd-de2a-4a94-af2c-171ba07d7329","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜光伝送の距離と遅延","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3544cd50-1f0d-4edb-b04d-33bddd6a5da0","kind":"figure","order":343,"section_id":"sec_0452cfbd-de2a-4a94-af2c-171ba07d7329","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光伝送の距離と遅延 01](/media/8411337172997f517183dd5007ee2d6392097cc20c55f2aa8cbe01bdcb9b810c-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_27527a97-302d-4dda-9c54-941573facd31","kind":"heading","order":344,"section_id":"sec_6e2908cd-b9b5-4318-b1c1-77ea22c878d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 21．Optical Fabric最大の難所は光ファイバーではなくE/O境界","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c6fe26ab-be6d-4036-bb85-9d8ac825970d","kind":"paragraph","order":345,"section_id":"sec_6e2908cd-b9b5-4318-b1c1-77ea22c878d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"fiber自体は非常に優秀である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_833ad165-de36-435d-929e-c420a07d7da2","kind":"paragraph","order":346,"section_id":"sec_6e2908cd-b9b5-4318-b1c1-77ea22c878d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"難しいのはcompute packageのすぐ横で、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2deca125-0291-48ef-9910-95b22c559ac4","kind":"paragraph","order":347,"section_id":"sec_6e2908cd-b9b5-4318-b1c1-77ea22c878d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"Electrical signal → Optical signal","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_67472e18-18ab-45f2-b1b9-635afd040005","kind":"paragraph","order":348,"section_id":"sec_6e2908cd-b9b5-4318-b1c1-77ea22c878d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ変換し、受信側で再び戻す部分である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5f3971c0-2f13-4e20-a0fa-4e6ba1ce9e6c","kind":"paragraph","order":349,"section_id":"sec_6e2908cd-b9b5-4318-b1c1-77ea22c878d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"特にCPOではASIC、photonic die、laser、fiber coupling、thermal management、testingを一つの製品として成立させなければならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_640f110f-21e8-46ba-abd1-0485e11af02d","kind":"paragraph","order":350,"section_id":"sec_6e2908cd-b9b5-4318-b1c1-77ea22c878d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMCがCOUPEをadvanced packagingそのものとして開発し、BroadcomやNVIDIAがCPO switchへ向かっている理由はここにある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2aed0b49-189e-44d0-9793-9ef9b4baec7c","kind":"paragraph","order":351,"section_id":"sec_6e2908cd-b9b5-4318-b1c1-77ea22c878d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVIDIAは2026年5月、Spectrum-X Ethernet Photonicsをproduction入りさせたと発表した。 (NVIDIA Newsroom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e77bffc8-3b88-4933-8b5c-c1b9a1ebd932","kind":"paragraph","order":352,"section_id":"sec_6e2908cd-b9b5-4318-b1c1-77ea22c878d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"BroadcomもTomahawk 6やCPOを含むAI Ethernet portfolioを生産展開しており、3.5D XDSiPもproductionに入っている。 (Broadcom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_24e3bda2-8430-44e3-a662-5cdf24d9acaf","kind":"paragraph","order":353,"section_id":"sec_6e2908cd-b9b5-4318-b1c1-77ea22c878d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって2026年時点では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01d6e1a4-8071-4cec-b535-be9e2ea9ba68","kind":"paragraph","order":354,"section_id":"sec_6e2908cd-b9b5-4318-b1c1-77ea22c878d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"Scale-Out Opticalは完全に実用領域、CPO switchも量産段階に入り、multi-rack Scale-Up OpticalやOptical Memory Fabricは次の実用化段階","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0aeec9ba-b535-43c1-8211-b264ab45b384","kind":"paragraph","order":355,"section_id":"sec_6e2908cd-b9b5-4318-b1c1-77ea22c878d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"という位置づけが適切である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_16dac4e5-395f-4dc8-916b-95e7b54a8c79","kind":"heading","order":356,"section_id":"sec_9ef2b310-0131-4265-8d6b-e6a1b145c68f","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜E/O境界と光電融合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_26844bcb-445b-4eef-a81b-2bcddab0aa7d","kind":"figure","order":357,"section_id":"sec_9ef2b310-0131-4265-8d6b-e6a1b145c68f","character_id":null,"markdown":"![E/O境界と光電融合 01](/media/db71af7dc322f17fe015de74e303a87dc98323d36860ef571d88debb77696c85-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_13bc9fd8-c495-4812-b743-65c93da26001","kind":"heading","order":358,"section_id":"sec_05591b92-b15f-4a74-aba9-d65da1d362f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 22．Scale-UpとScale-Outの境界は薄れる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0a1639ca-f318-49d7-9220-4f1ce6800940","kind":"paragraph","order":359,"section_id":"sec_05591b92-b15f-4a74-aba9-d65da1d362f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c7be657e-89d2-4642-852c-d14c1e5b8849","kind":"paragraph","order":360,"section_id":"sec_05591b92-b15f-4a74-aba9-d65da1d362f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Scale-Up＝rack内部、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0d9f8a2d-baac-426c-82b7-d2fcc45320a0","kind":"paragraph","order":361,"section_id":"sec_05591b92-b15f-4a74-aba9-d65da1d362f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Scale-Out＝rack間、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fc98a6ae-5d5f-4311-8300-60a2a9983063","kind":"paragraph","order":362,"section_id":"sec_05591b92-b15f-4a74-aba9-d65da1d362f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"と物理距離で分かりやすく区別できた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eebaf2d5-298e-4998-bb32-ea87f242c3c0","kind":"paragraph","order":363,"section_id":"sec_05591b92-b15f-4a74-aba9-d65da1d362f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしOptical Fabricでラックを越えて低遅延にXPUを接続できるようになると、この定義は崩れる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6d2fa4d3-ec96-4e3f-8e7f-3a7466e9ca40","kind":"paragraph","order":364,"section_id":"sec_05591b92-b15f-4a74-aba9-d65da1d362f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"将来は同じOptical physical layerの上に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8b6d1a7-7e20-4436-84aa-6d3eda201558","kind":"paragraph","order":365,"section_id":"sec_05591b92-b15f-4a74-aba9-d65da1d362f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Scale-Up protocol、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_996a4b25-e067-4c07-94a2-67256fa00213","kind":"paragraph","order":366,"section_id":"sec_05591b92-b15f-4a74-aba9-d65da1d362f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Memory protocol、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_998f6dba-f687-4ea5-b4d3-17e561ded5b9","kind":"paragraph","order":367,"section_id":"sec_05591b92-b15f-4a74-aba9-d65da1d362f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Ethernet、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_530d1c54-09ea-46c7-bc1f-55ee7aee11f5","kind":"paragraph","order":368,"section_id":"sec_05591b92-b15f-4a74-aba9-d65da1d362f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Storage protocol","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5c2ba2a-f6f6-4cfe-b545-2df925d99a00","kind":"paragraph","order":369,"section_id":"sec_05591b92-b15f-4a74-aba9-d65da1d362f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"などが載る可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb15f209-acc2-4b21-b77a-41748135434b","kind":"paragraph","order":370,"section_id":"sec_05591b92-b15f-4a74-aba9-d65da1d362f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a40a172f-ced3-4782-822a-c786154c644e","kind":"paragraph","order":371,"section_id":"sec_05591b92-b15f-4a74-aba9-d65da1d362f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"道路は光へ統一されても、車線は残る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_85210277-52fb-4072-8c62-153e754f79a6","kind":"paragraph","order":372,"section_id":"sec_05591b92-b15f-4a74-aba9-d65da1d362f0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Scale-UpとScale-Outの境界が完全消滅するというより、物理的境界は消え、論理的・software的境界だけが残ると考えるのがよい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e10c3b7-d872-4dab-91d6-0660ce76e501","kind":"heading","order":373,"section_id":"sec_0c33b8b7-aa49-4b31-ab72-9e06eac338c0","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜同じ光路に重なる通信","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_95d53d2d-1cad-4d02-b811-b5dde8eed6f9","kind":"figure","order":374,"section_id":"sec_0c33b8b7-aa49-4b31-ab72-9e06eac338c0","character_id":null,"markdown":"![同じ光路に重なる通信 01](/media/178236c6ffd3facda76f88ee1ae09840387451e55c98b0760ead670c20c67ec3-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a034cc2a-ec5c-4c67-8749-95a6ca963462","kind":"heading","order":375,"section_id":"sec_9ed6cccb-3a3d-41ca-9c57-4a1819350607","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 23．Googleはすでに「HBM＋Optical Fabric＋Compiler」の思想に近い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1486efdf-55ca-4d4b-8947-def45406a4b7","kind":"paragraph","order":376,"section_id":"sec_9ed6cccb-3a3d-41ca-9c57-4a1819350607","character_id":null,"markdown":"GoogleのIronwood TPUは最大9,216 chipのPodを、ICI、Optical Circuit Switch、data-center network、大規模HBM capacityと一体で設計する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1db84a1c-3423-4288-9270-0ceade2026f6","kind":"paragraph","order":377,"section_id":"sec_9ed6cccb-3a3d-41ca-9c57-4a1819350607","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらにXLA compilerまで同じsystemとしてco-designしている。 (Google Cloud)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_48f10ec7-78af-4095-b0ad-3c6216eb80b7","kind":"paragraph","order":378,"section_id":"sec_9ed6cccb-3a3d-41ca-9c57-4a1819350607","character_id":null,"markdown":"Googleの強みは単に速いTPUを作ることではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_77888c9a-eac2-4d93-ae31-ab8fd0a99f5f","kind":"paragraph","order":379,"section_id":"sec_9ed6cccb-3a3d-41ca-9c57-4a1819350607","character_id":null,"markdown":"Model workloadを理解し、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7966356a-0553-4894-bfba-3115f5304d77","kind":"paragraph","order":380,"section_id":"sec_9ed6cccb-3a3d-41ca-9c57-4a1819350607","character_id":null,"markdown":"どのtopologyで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_26c7bbe4-7d7f-42fc-a6e1-fe31d7152760","kind":"paragraph","order":381,"section_id":"sec_9ed6cccb-3a3d-41ca-9c57-4a1819350607","character_id":null,"markdown":"どのchipに、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c6f5d33c-d356-4e8c-bc0a-c09725e7525a","kind":"paragraph","order":382,"section_id":"sec_9ed6cccb-3a3d-41ca-9c57-4a1819350607","character_id":null,"markdown":"どのdataを、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ced7c27-cb62-49ef-a47c-fb261d3490cf","kind":"paragraph","order":383,"section_id":"sec_9ed6cccb-3a3d-41ca-9c57-4a1819350607","character_id":null,"markdown":"どのタイミングで配置するかを、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1de45865-7ba4-40c2-b23f-efb1cec1b8cf","kind":"paragraph","order":384,"section_id":"sec_9ed6cccb-3a3d-41ca-9c57-4a1819350607","character_id":null,"markdown":"hardwareとcompilerの両側から最適化できることである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c617aae4-255c-49bd-a717-8205e48f42a8","kind":"paragraph","order":385,"section_id":"sec_9ed6cccb-3a3d-41ca-9c57-4a1819350607","character_id":null,"markdown":"この思想は、Huaweiの廖恒氏が語る「18層宝塔」やcross-layer co-designと非常に近い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_69942301-b23c-4155-86c5-120ba06e0160","kind":"heading","order":386,"section_id":"sec_90a2fbac-855a-4445-adfc-e0ab17069cf7","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜GoogleのHBM・光・Compiler協調","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c005f07-26da-46db-9165-2db739a8e8c1","kind":"figure","order":387,"section_id":"sec_90a2fbac-855a-4445-adfc-e0ab17069cf7","character_id":null,"markdown":"![GoogleのHBM・光・Compiler協調 01](/media/32c69678ea1ee60808392b67933f91e1f9cb89399f12c1266d670ddad0f1115c-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_566979c0-7751-4238-86ae-ad7171d724b1","kind":"heading","order":388,"section_id":"sec_d4084f29-be6a-4129-aa9f-adab3288fd84","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 24．Huaweiは製造制約をSuperPoDとOpticalで補う","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_40817416-a644-4df6-96af-16e1242649f5","kind":"paragraph","order":389,"section_id":"sec_d4084f29-be6a-4129-aa9f-adab3288fd84","character_id":null,"markdown":"Huaweiにとって最先端process、HBM、advanced packagingの制約はNVIDIAより大きい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a76c9553-63de-4322-ae14-fe37bfbe0f3a","kind":"paragraph","order":390,"section_id":"sec_d4084f29-be6a-4129-aa9f-adab3288fd84","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのためNVIDIAと同じchipを作ろうとするより、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1444dc6a-80e1-41b9-9653-f6bddc6c4a21","kind":"paragraph","order":391,"section_id":"sec_d4084f29-be6a-4129-aa9f-adab3288fd84","character_id":null,"markdown":"多数のAscendを巨大な一台のlogical computerとして扱う","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c6264856-2f12-4756-a887-76cd02d4a79d","kind":"paragraph","order":392,"section_id":"sec_d4084f29-be6a-4129-aa9f-adab3288fd84","character_id":null,"markdown":"方が合理的になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f5edf29-0b6e-49b6-98a0-c2cb411689c4","kind":"paragraph","order":393,"section_id":"sec_d4084f29-be6a-4129-aa9f-adab3288fd84","character_id":null,"markdown":"HuaweiはAtlas 950 SuperPoDについて、最大8,192個のAscend 950DT、160 cabinets、all-optical interconnect、16PB/s級interconnect bandwidthというroadmapを発表しており、2026年第4四半期を予定している。Huawei自身、「中国本土で実際に利用できるsemiconductor manufacturing process nodeを使いながら長期的なcomputing demandを満たす」ことをSuperPoD戦略の目的として説明している。 (Huawei)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9f5aee66-ae70-4753-9331-133cf02b580a","kind":"paragraph","order":394,"section_id":"sec_d4084f29-be6a-4129-aa9f-adab3288fd84","character_id":null,"markdown":"これはまさに、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d50c84e0-4354-4f7c-a7e3-f9607f74f186","kind":"paragraph","order":395,"section_id":"sec_d4084f29-be6a-4129-aa9f-adab3288fd84","character_id":null,"markdown":"process node差をsystem architectureで補う","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_38868e0b-8eb0-4215-b3db-83f6f75cfc8e","kind":"paragraph","order":396,"section_id":"sec_d4084f29-be6a-4129-aa9f-adab3288fd84","character_id":null,"markdown":"戦略である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c48e15b-4235-4b0c-8084-db07e08aaf8f","kind":"paragraph","order":397,"section_id":"sec_d4084f29-be6a-4129-aa9f-adab3288fd84","character_id":null,"markdown":"一つの巨大chipを作れないなら多数chipを使う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ddfaccc3-e230-4634-a332-53cd079d226b","kind":"paragraph","order":398,"section_id":"sec_d4084f29-be6a-4129-aa9f-adab3288fd84","character_id":null,"markdown":"多数chipを使えば通信が問題になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ded763e-2da8-4cf9-97c7-46c4d1da9a20","kind":"paragraph","order":399,"section_id":"sec_d4084f29-be6a-4129-aa9f-adab3288fd84","character_id":null,"markdown":"電気配線では距離・電力・ケーブル量が問題になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_da6a920e-05fc-4a3b-9eb8-429729c02594","kind":"paragraph","order":400,"section_id":"sec_d4084f29-be6a-4129-aa9f-adab3288fd84","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこでOpticalを使う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8a50277b-1006-41bf-9dc9-5bd9e1303602","kind":"paragraph","order":401,"section_id":"sec_d4084f29-be6a-4129-aa9f-adab3288fd84","character_id":null,"markdown":"非常に一貫した戦略である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_621f467c-b988-4447-9142-e8ca5224a309","kind":"heading","order":402,"section_id":"sec_313ba9c5-a569-456f-b31c-490025deffa1","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜SuperPoDとAll-Optical Interconnect","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e344ebb4-efc8-41f3-9cad-6aa393449866","kind":"figure","order":403,"section_id":"sec_313ba9c5-a569-456f-b31c-490025deffa1","character_id":null,"markdown":"![SuperPoDとAll-Optical Interconnect 01](/media/520e597717607a8693733c11503adc89bd18b34a6c312af8ecff0a2152138fd5-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56d2c909-56e9-4f15-9435-6e9fc461627e","kind":"heading","order":404,"section_id":"sec_4b544497-a01b-4492-897e-3553bc6f35c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 25．NVIDIAは逆にpackage内部を極限まで巨大化できる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8ca4ad7-168b-412d-9ad7-719fb0adfb59","kind":"paragraph","order":405,"section_id":"sec_4b544497-a01b-4492-897e-3553bc6f35c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVIDIA側には別の合理性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_87c952f3-9a12-4f2f-9871-1c5ed5bbbcb9","kind":"paragraph","order":406,"section_id":"sec_4b544497-a01b-4492-897e-3553bc6f35c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"最先端TSMC process、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ada221f8-bbd1-44f9-a615-9dcd8d1940d5","kind":"paragraph","order":407,"section_id":"sec_4b544497-a01b-4492-897e-3553bc6f35c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"CoWoS、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0d6b6969-3dff-4f61-87ff-bd98dfa46602","kind":"paragraph","order":408,"section_id":"sec_4b544497-a01b-4492-897e-3553bc6f35c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM4、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fcb707e4-7330-458a-8ae6-c694a9e6210b","kind":"paragraph","order":409,"section_id":"sec_4b544497-a01b-4492-897e-3553bc6f35c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVLink、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_85fe1781-c12b-4496-8882-631a729d8944","kind":"paragraph","order":410,"section_id":"sec_4b544497-a01b-4492-897e-3553bc6f35c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVSwitch、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3db8998d-64d7-4745-9a3c-3d969b5f9170","kind":"paragraph","order":411,"section_id":"sec_4b544497-a01b-4492-897e-3553bc6f35c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"Spectrum-X、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ab86dd3d-9bce-4ed9-8eb6-30bd5e306606","kind":"paragraph","order":412,"section_id":"sec_4b544497-a01b-4492-897e-3553bc6f35c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"CUDA、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_86cf382c-a42d-484e-9dcd-f73ceeac0744","kind":"paragraph","order":413,"section_id":"sec_4b544497-a01b-4492-897e-3553bc6f35c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"Dynamo","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43c57f58-6542-4646-b096-dc136e26bef0","kind":"paragraph","order":414,"section_id":"sec_4b544497-a01b-4492-897e-3553bc6f35c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"を一体で持つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41597344-d0a3-4fd9-bc38-486163e63dcf","kind":"paragraph","order":415,"section_id":"sec_4b544497-a01b-4492-897e-3553bc6f35c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりNVIDIAは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_72213d37-0015-4145-90d1-fd6621ffa6b1","kind":"paragraph","order":416,"section_id":"sec_4b544497-a01b-4492-897e-3553bc6f35c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"可能な限りLocalに置き、どうしても外へ出す必要がある場所からOptical化する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fad1577c-c554-4f18-beda-5a4fafb6e9fe","kind":"paragraph","order":417,"section_id":"sec_4b544497-a01b-4492-897e-3553bc6f35c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"戦略を取れる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c5079934-6c96-482a-9f58-711ad1872262","kind":"paragraph","order":418,"section_id":"sec_4b544497-a01b-4492-897e-3553bc6f35c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"Dynamo KVBMを見ると、software側ではすでにGPU HBMだけをmemoryと考えず、CPU DRAM、remote memory、SSD、object storageまで階層化している。 (NVIDIA Docs)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_968d9498-5e08-4f00-a38d-3cc201336eaf","kind":"paragraph","order":419,"section_id":"sec_4b544497-a01b-4492-897e-3553bc6f35c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりNVIDIAも最終的には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_25ca903b-62e2-4dc4-9e54-06487b880901","kind":"paragraph","order":420,"section_id":"sec_4b544497-a01b-4492-897e-3553bc6f35c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"「巨大GPUメーカー」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d12b2585-1520-4cc9-9ea0-d4aa9c87d4a7","kind":"paragraph","order":421,"section_id":"sec_4b544497-a01b-4492-897e-3553bc6f35c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"から、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cae202af-ec71-41a0-b1ee-9501a46a2eeb","kind":"paragraph","order":422,"section_id":"sec_4b544497-a01b-4492-897e-3553bc6f35c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI Factory全体のmemory・network・runtimeを支配するsystem company","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7815a429-ba39-4ce1-8364-4659fbf93e40","kind":"paragraph","order":423,"section_id":"sec_4b544497-a01b-4492-897e-3553bc6f35c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ進んでいる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73b70b72-7312-4097-83c7-bbaedaf6cb44","kind":"heading","order":424,"section_id":"sec_48064c54-48dd-4a32-87f7-704e6dc9e634","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜NVIDIAのLocality戦略","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_033b2c1e-1c5c-4b56-a5e8-7c7b941098f3","kind":"figure","order":425,"section_id":"sec_48064c54-48dd-4a32-87f7-704e6dc9e634","character_id":null,"markdown":"![NVIDIAのLocality戦略 01](/media/6b8b392eb219bcfd2ced55d44a3521b57e33a6d62c0bf58d9dc6ee3b3f5c3a14-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a482d81f-5fe5-4db0-b456-d0ce79217616","kind":"heading","order":426,"section_id":"sec_47100b10-41f5-4ad1-b28a-e55389876d3e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 26．Broadcomは「誰が勝っても必要になるFabric」を狙える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_17df5488-525f-4dce-8664-00c118dec8bc","kind":"paragraph","order":427,"section_id":"sec_47100b10-41f5-4ad1-b28a-e55389876d3e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Broadcomは非常に特徴的である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3cdd0c29-d0ba-47d3-b7d0-37b71f4e0dc8","kind":"paragraph","order":428,"section_id":"sec_47100b10-41f5-4ad1-b28a-e55389876d3e","character_id":null,"markdown":"自社で汎用GPU platformを支配する必要がない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e9e1e79d-b4a4-43b3-9c15-fff0a8b178ff","kind":"paragraph","order":429,"section_id":"sec_47100b10-41f5-4ad1-b28a-e55389876d3e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Custom XPU、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9d865bcf-8ee0-4d05-a0ca-4921eb0b7039","kind":"paragraph","order":430,"section_id":"sec_47100b10-41f5-4ad1-b28a-e55389876d3e","character_id":null,"markdown":"3.5D packaging、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c824772f-9704-48b0-b5c8-e15888eae267","kind":"paragraph","order":431,"section_id":"sec_47100b10-41f5-4ad1-b28a-e55389876d3e","character_id":null,"markdown":"SerDes、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_001a8642-d8ff-41a9-a25e-ed5923be58b2","kind":"paragraph","order":432,"section_id":"sec_47100b10-41f5-4ad1-b28a-e55389876d3e","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPO、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f5cccded-6ab5-4f49-9331-bf87f48fe672","kind":"paragraph","order":433,"section_id":"sec_47100b10-41f5-4ad1-b28a-e55389876d3e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Tomahawk switch、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5301d846-29ec-435f-b957-f76b2020f2c4","kind":"paragraph","order":434,"section_id":"sec_47100b10-41f5-4ad1-b28a-e55389876d3e","character_id":null,"markdown":"NIC、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bae8dc5e-343f-432a-bfe8-c337327e64c2","kind":"paragraph","order":435,"section_id":"sec_47100b10-41f5-4ad1-b28a-e55389876d3e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Ethernet Scale-Up","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_09622af9-c067-467d-a76d-ad0ceb9da93a","kind":"paragraph","order":436,"section_id":"sec_47100b10-41f5-4ad1-b28a-e55389876d3e","character_id":null,"markdown":"を提供できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8957e64c-8c92-4c8e-9ad9-943cdba3c848","kind":"paragraph","order":437,"section_id":"sec_47100b10-41f5-4ad1-b28a-e55389876d3e","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりNVIDIA、Google、Meta、その他custom XPUが増えるほど、data 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01](/media/e39fc8164ed890798df2ac6d7d8e399668d32ae28ee4404b722a2dcfdacdc6d8-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8802cbdd-1389-49ab-b577-551f0277f5b0","kind":"heading","order":442,"section_id":"sec_6cb19dda-fcda-4d8b-93f3-c16c25b3c2b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 27．AMDは「大量HBM＋Open Scale-Up」という戦略","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e1ad254-9647-4b2e-9488-757347527a54","kind":"paragraph","order":443,"section_id":"sec_6cb19dda-fcda-4d8b-93f3-c16c25b3c2b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"AMD Heliosは72基のMI455Xを一つのrackに統合する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_320c61ad-e593-4b7a-8f16-fa5568b319a3","kind":"paragraph","order":444,"section_id":"sec_6cb19dda-fcda-4d8b-93f3-c16c25b3c2b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"AMDが公表する設計では31TBのHBM4、最大260TB/sのaggregate scale-up bandwidthを持ち、UALink over Ethernetを使って72 GPUを一つのcompute resourceとして動かす。 (AMD)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_057b9be7-80b1-4b59-bb96-2001934e95a7","kind":"paragraph","order":445,"section_id":"sec_6cb19dda-fcda-4d8b-93f3-c16c25b3c2b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりAMDの現在の答えは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_011019d8-6bbd-497d-8985-f8579647f55c","kind":"paragraph","order":446,"section_id":"sec_6cb19dda-fcda-4d8b-93f3-c16c25b3c2b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Local HBMを非常に大きくしつつ、openなScale-Up FabricでNVIDIA NVLink 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Contextとは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dbe098c6-30f6-4a26-a7e8-e4efd50cfc9f","kind":"paragraph","order":454,"section_id":"sec_528727ae-e13d-4365-b2a1-917cf53e9433","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在モデルが直接Attentionできる情報量","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88f29fd6-4f40-4a7e-99a9-4f865393db2d","kind":"paragraph","order":455,"section_id":"sec_528727ae-e13d-4365-b2a1-917cf53e9433","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ae784bda-0ee7-4924-8bd9-ed19f0c1ca77","kind":"paragraph","order":456,"section_id":"sec_528727ae-e13d-4365-b2a1-917cf53e9433","character_id":null,"markdown":"Long-term Memoryとは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f27e126d-18a6-409a-ad85-6857a949b891","kind":"paragraph","order":457,"section_id":"sec_528727ae-e13d-4365-b2a1-917cf53e9433","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在contextに入っていなくても後から再取得できる情報","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c4e08786-2a07-46f9-89d7-86c053f88e8f","kind":"paragraph","order":458,"section_id":"sec_528727ae-e13d-4365-b2a1-917cf53e9433","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_618141ea-04bc-4e72-90a0-b1c40bfd62eb","kind":"paragraph","order":459,"section_id":"sec_528727ae-e13d-4365-b2a1-917cf53e9433","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5eef1aa9-7cca-42ea-8a86-a54f6ebdcdd0","kind":"math","order":460,"section_id":"sec_528727ae-e13d-4365-b2a1-917cf53e9433","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Context}\\subset\\text{Memory}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_24c31b99-bf51-4b28-9d5c-e192635c35e2","kind":"paragraph","order":461,"section_id":"sec_528727ae-e13d-4365-b2a1-917cf53e9433","character_id":null,"markdown":"と考えると分かりやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c16666b7-b4b2-4824-bf46-54cda52f1541","kind":"paragraph","order":462,"section_id":"sec_528727ae-e13d-4365-b2a1-917cf53e9433","character_id":null,"markdown":"長時間coding taskなら、会話全文を常にcontextへ残すより、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1421e656-9cdf-40f6-86c3-2b86ee6823a8","kind":"paragraph","order":463,"section_id":"sec_528727ae-e13d-4365-b2a1-917cf53e9433","character_id":null,"markdown":"Objective\nConstraints\nPlan\nDone\nTodo\nCurrent State\nBlockers\nCheckpoint","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_04253ecd-6df3-43f9-aa7c-cb87d71cf78d","kind":"paragraph","order":464,"section_id":"sec_528727ae-e13d-4365-b2a1-917cf53e9433","character_id":null,"markdown":"という構造化stateを維持した方がよい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b9cf7d3-9684-44c6-b8ed-3ad125eb12f0","kind":"paragraph","order":465,"section_id":"sec_528727ae-e13d-4365-b2a1-917cf53e9433","character_id":null,"markdown":"過去の詳細はSSDやdatabaseへ残し、必要になったときだけretrieveする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_08a92a2c-776d-4bd2-8aaf-7ddd5c699611","kind":"heading","order":466,"section_id":"sec_614e8c74-8d9e-4db5-b0f4-930d40ecb581","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Long Contextと長期記憶","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd7046d3-eba3-4244-9188-84f6e95102e5","kind":"figure","order":467,"section_id":"sec_614e8c74-8d9e-4db5-b0f4-930d40ecb581","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Long Contextと長期記憶 01](/media/cdd6c358a3acc603ef8817ddbfd7b82d8a06393e5cc1a6068647e00d3ce51cba-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0149efe4-144e-4b4f-8731-fb8267a3eb49","kind":"heading","order":468,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 29．途中で指示が変わっても作業を完遂するには「状態管理」が必要","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01c1d121-cffd-4aa8-9450-29d18d80cf5d","kind":"paragraph","order":469,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えば最初の指示が、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33fb1b69-e868-4495-9c90-2c3d4f6bc316","kind":"paragraph","order":470,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"「CUDA版を作る」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3d1884ba-fdc3-47c4-b03c-5dcc3da14b40","kind":"paragraph","order":471,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"だったとする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_855de2a9-17ac-450e-8ba1-d579cbac85ac","kind":"paragraph","order":472,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"途中で、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb731d2d-c194-4df5-9a59-ef8810cbe04c","kind":"paragraph","order":473,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"「AMDにも対応する。ただしCUDA版は残す」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0a05cecf-d727-4a1b-9b7d-9043c4115986","kind":"paragraph","order":474,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"という指示が入る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_78a7e929-f2f1-4bd0-a473-3cdb4c8821cf","kind":"paragraph","order":475,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"強いAgentは新しい文章をcontext末尾へ追加するだけでは足りない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_852aad65-6122-4dc9-995a-1774a685c219","kind":"paragraph","order":476,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"旧Goalと新Instructionとの差分を理解し、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf895e57-1577-4b02-a170-fa6693bd73f0","kind":"paragraph","order":477,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"新しいconstraintを追加し、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3d5200de-dd5a-4e74-86a3-c9ef9dc740db","kind":"paragraph","order":478,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"既に完了したtaskへの影響を調べ、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ea7e8460-9563-4109-a053-f8e62d9095c0","kind":"paragraph","order":479,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"dependency graphを更新し、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ce008ba-2972-46b5-b057-6517c323f5ae","kind":"paragraph","order":480,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"残りplanを再生成する必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_31e51223-4951-487b-8e12-3d016170d797","kind":"paragraph","order":481,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり長時間作業能力は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_009960b7-ccf4-404c-8a8d-a2856c8e7ca4","kind":"paragraph","order":482,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"Model Intelligence","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_28e415d8-e02d-49d5-b8c3-7540e9f64db1","kind":"paragraph","order":483,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"だけではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ec9b00af-2e2b-4f05-b0a5-20ef4e2cb431","kind":"paragraph","order":484,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"Planner、Persistent State、Verifier、Checkpoint、Rollback、Replanning","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e0d11a50-68d4-44ce-9622-ddd17b5b37a3","kind":"paragraph","order":485,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"によって成立する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c9d8595e-45ec-4754-aa2a-0fc9bbe4e4d5","kind":"paragraph","order":486,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のbenchmarkでも、長期software developmentは依然として難しい。RoadmapBenchでは、中央値3,700行・51ファイルに及ぶversion upgrade taskに対し、最強modelでも39.1%しか解決できなかった。 (arXiv)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d4924d8e-022a-436a-9ef1-e36ada995776","kind":"paragraph","order":487,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"また2026年の研究では、単に各stepを賢く実行できても「100件完了するまで止まらない」といったgoal persistenceが崩れることが示され、explicitなstate tracking controllerが性能を大きく改善している。 (arXiv)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5defa0ac-ba2e-4ae5-95c0-835d2f2bdf77","kind":"paragraph","order":488,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c0e2551-91d0-4c3f-acc9-56c4e4732400","kind":"math","order":489,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Long Context}\\neq\\text{Long Horizon Reliability}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e0760b9-cf63-425c-ab0b-d8c637b8b2c6","kind":"paragraph","order":490,"section_id":"sec_edce672d-ede3-40fb-bc4d-60fdb1c379a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9414e2a0-ad99-4e2c-91d4-422e557d91b4","kind":"heading","order":491,"section_id":"sec_42e171c5-9c1a-42bc-8d98-7850111a64a5","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜長時間Agentの状態管理","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_62f1e571-fb09-4242-a929-0878bd9d34d4","kind":"figure","order":492,"section_id":"sec_42e171c5-9c1a-42bc-8d98-7850111a64a5","character_id":null,"markdown":"![長時間Agentの状態管理 01](/media/7728b6f65810dea4ddaa56c4113bd69a582c7a89eaa10bbceb75163cd0ad6d1c-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f4649eb-c9cd-4b95-896a-f9b3ece5d42f","kind":"heading","order":493,"section_id":"sec_7c12fbc7-340a-4279-8e72-fd796c86def2","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 30．長時間AgentではMemory自体が「能動的」になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f34dba94-8f84-4979-9959-fbc79e05b5f5","kind":"paragraph","order":494,"section_id":"sec_7c12fbc7-340a-4279-8e72-fd796c86def2","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来のRAGでは、質問が来たら似た文章を検索するという受動的retrievalが中心だった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e48e439f-bf51-498e-88c4-611c647903c6","kind":"paragraph","order":495,"section_id":"sec_7c12fbc7-340a-4279-8e72-fd796c86def2","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし長時間Agentでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_03bc3bf4-5ae5-4bd1-9f48-44e88172ff1b","kind":"paragraph","order":496,"section_id":"sec_7c12fbc7-340a-4279-8e72-fd796c86def2","character_id":null,"markdown":"「今この情報を思い出させないとAgentが間違った方向へ進みそうだ」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8763435f-525b-4fb5-a535-8dc7a7b3d1c8","kind":"paragraph","order":497,"section_id":"sec_7c12fbc7-340a-4279-8e72-fd796c86def2","character_id":null,"markdown":"とMemory側が判断して、重要stateを再注入するようなsystemが必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3d1d6da3-7be7-4e1b-94ca-4b3d29cf779f","kind":"paragraph","order":498,"section_id":"sec_7c12fbc7-340a-4279-8e72-fd796c86def2","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年のProactive Memory研究では、Action Agentとは別にMemory Agentを動かし、task requirement、過去のattempt、environment stateなどをstructured memoryとして維持し、必要時だけreminderをinjectすることでlong-horizon task性能を改善している。 (arXiv)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c664bb9d-36e4-46c3-8d69-26256cd8713c","kind":"paragraph","order":499,"section_id":"sec_7c12fbc7-340a-4279-8e72-fd796c86def2","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは非常に重要な方向である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6f512ef-e218-462a-9b16-9821d41d594a","kind":"paragraph","order":500,"section_id":"sec_7c12fbc7-340a-4279-8e72-fd796c86def2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Memoryは単なる倉庫ではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a04a3b0a-2971-4bcd-a1f6-064d49bc4dc1","kind":"paragraph","order":501,"section_id":"sec_7c12fbc7-340a-4279-8e72-fd796c86def2","character_id":null,"markdown":"「いつ何を思い出すべきかを判断するsystem」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a85718fb-66d5-4050-b6ee-84fc40ef988e","kind":"paragraph","order":502,"section_id":"sec_7c12fbc7-340a-4279-8e72-fd796c86def2","character_id":null,"markdown":"になっていく。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_352e569e-5f4b-4ef8-8983-6a4418ecf003","kind":"heading","order":503,"section_id":"sec_94a77411-e2bc-4356-97b0-27edac448516","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜能動的Memory Agent","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9af5eada-730b-414c-a349-41c2fe1ea295","kind":"figure","order":504,"section_id":"sec_94a77411-e2bc-4356-97b0-27edac448516","character_id":null,"markdown":"![能動的Memory Agent 01](/media/ed9ec3f47d0e5c8ff2204e3b2ff6c6f5abdf384a294560c749b157d7beb70e8e-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01e7b495-e5ca-4f45-a481-4935b7dfdabb","kind":"heading","order":505,"section_id":"sec_21689909-c8af-41f1-a430-e754fb3520b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 31．将来はExpertとMemoryの「予測fetch」が重要になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a52ec590-39cf-41b9-b0a9-4cdf37e451c1","kind":"paragraph","order":506,"section_id":"sec_21689909-c8af-41f1-a430-e754fb3520b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要になってからremote memoryを読み込むとlatencyが発生する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ab97ec2a-ff58-40e1-9bdd-4aff8a52145f","kind":"paragraph","order":507,"section_id":"sec_21689909-c8af-41f1-a430-e754fb3520b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこでsoftwareは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_07c2d1c5-5133-44a9-97c9-253fbb1a2872","kind":"paragraph","order":508,"section_id":"sec_21689909-c8af-41f1-a430-e754fb3520b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"次に必要なものを予測して先に持ってくる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_95ec086f-0ae9-4617-9acf-86431ad3c011","kind":"paragraph","order":509,"section_id":"sec_21689909-c8af-41f1-a430-e754fb3520b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ab4d390-2ff3-4342-b249-d396db984cb3","kind":"paragraph","order":510,"section_id":"sec_21689909-c8af-41f1-a430-e754fb3520b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"coding agentがdatabase.pyを変更しているなら、次にtest_database.pyを読む確率が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_519d3d91-6cba-4fad-9e8b-f702695e2965","kind":"paragraph","order":511,"section_id":"sec_21689909-c8af-41f1-a430-e754fb3520b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"MoEでExpert Aを使っているなら、次tokenでもAや関連Expertを使う可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c8eedec-90bf-4d1d-a817-3726e6a15bee","kind":"paragraph","order":512,"section_id":"sec_21689909-c8af-41f1-a430-e754fb3520b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fea32c00-b46b-4393-9a75-8260cf3b0c3d","kind":"paragraph","order":513,"section_id":"sec_21689909-c8af-41f1-a430-e754fb3520b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"Cold\nSSD\n ↓\n予測Prefetch\n ↓\nDRAM\n ↓\nさらに必要になりそう\n ↓\nHBM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6014e043-4bc0-4399-a5f8-b4d022a84c19","kind":"paragraph","order":514,"section_id":"sec_21689909-c8af-41f1-a430-e754fb3520b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"と先回りする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43c2f7b5-f2ff-4e94-b531-c4d64c25816c","kind":"paragraph","order":515,"section_id":"sec_21689909-c8af-41f1-a430-e754fb3520b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"これが成功すれば、remote memoryの物理latencyをsoftwareが隠せる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9391fa8-11cc-4f1e-8cc8-d51b856bfbc9","kind":"paragraph","order":516,"section_id":"sec_21689909-c8af-41f1-a430-e754fb3520b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってOptical Fabric時代の性能を決めるのは、単なるfiber bandwidthではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_869b778f-605a-49a4-904b-dbe6414e3768","kind":"paragraph","order":517,"section_id":"sec_21689909-c8af-41f1-a430-e754fb3520b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"Scheduler、Retriever、Cache Policy、Compiler、Routing Predictor","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e81ac5bc-11fd-4497-b770-15b9e797ecbf","kind":"paragraph","order":518,"section_id":"sec_21689909-c8af-41f1-a430-e754fb3520b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"が同じくらい重要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c7e147eb-8f27-4638-8f23-352cfbedd6a9","kind":"heading","order":519,"section_id":"sec_14102060-4755-4c9d-bd04-c7121e6b4835","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜ExpertとMemoryの予測fetch","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0726e67d-807a-4adc-b031-a0b23f87a605","kind":"figure","order":520,"section_id":"sec_14102060-4755-4c9d-bd04-c7121e6b4835","character_id":null,"markdown":"![ExpertとMemoryの予測fetch 01](/media/95486068b236670ec34a9e50aafb8500040a7d51e678f020385fd3a5cd3af059-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d09f055-6942-429a-9cfd-d060133b6bcf","kind":"heading","order":521,"section_id":"sec_0f28a83e-8fdf-45d8-bfe6-9d9ad26ba0ca","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 32．最終的なAI Factoryは「巨大な階層型Memory Computer」になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_68a8998f-d452-4b77-8167-37766a617c9a","kind":"paragraph","order":522,"section_id":"sec_0f28a83e-8fdf-45d8-bfe6-9d9ad26ba0ca","character_id":null,"markdown":"これらを一つにつなげると、将来のAI systemは次のようになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6edcd044-5f78-4997-8ed2-c807bd939f96","kind":"paragraph","order":523,"section_id":"sec_0f28a83e-8fdf-45d8-bfe6-9d9ad26ba0ca","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI Agent / Model\n                               │\n             ┌─────────────────┼─────────────────┐\n             │                 │                 │\n          Planner         Expert Router      Memory Router\n             │                 │                 │\n             └─────────────────┼─────────────────┘\n                               ↓\n                         XPU Compute\n                         SRAM / HBM\n                       Active Working Set\n                               │\n                     Optical / Scale-Up Fabric\n                               │\n       ┌───────────────────────┼───────────────────────┐\n       ↓                       ↓                       ↓\n   Pooled DRAM              HBF / Memory            NVMe SSD\n   Warm KV                  Expert Pool              Cold KV\n   Prefix Cache             Model Shards             History\n       │                                                │\n       └───────────────────────┬────────────────────────┘\n                               ↓\n                         Object Storage","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bb7e65b8-b707-4a55-bee4-c787d58ea6df","kind":"paragraph","order":524,"section_id":"sec_0f28a83e-8fdf-45d8-bfe6-9d9ad26ba0ca","character_id":null,"markdown":"重要なのは、このsystemの中心が必ずしもGPUではないことである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_02934677-f47e-4ed1-bdce-c3f278f65566","kind":"paragraph","order":525,"section_id":"sec_0f28a83e-8fdf-45d8-bfe6-9d9ad26ba0ca","character_id":null,"markdown":"中心にあるのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5affeb68-6b5f-4d0f-8d0a-1c046f797cfd","kind":"paragraph","order":526,"section_id":"sec_0f28a83e-8fdf-45d8-bfe6-9d9ad26ba0ca","character_id":null,"markdown":"「必要な情報を必要な場所へ移動させること」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3e065303-5712-46ea-9388-d8ed25aaed1d","kind":"paragraph","order":527,"section_id":"sec_0f28a83e-8fdf-45d8-bfe6-9d9ad26ba0ca","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_053ce29f-fda8-4650-bb7a-35a4879f93c1","kind":"heading","order":528,"section_id":"sec_00be8c15-9add-4cc9-bfd9-351c6ea41189","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜階層型Memory Computer","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_862925ec-1c95-48a3-9f2d-f777d854b8ce","kind":"figure","order":529,"section_id":"sec_00be8c15-9add-4cc9-bfd9-351c6ea41189","character_id":null,"markdown":"![階層型Memory Computer 01](/media/713e255dfdfa72b3f1a1ea577a16c280092aa3e36eaf53fa146bb2862388a76b-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_31dc30b6-b169-4068-a4fd-e96df00e8307","kind":"heading","order":530,"section_id":"sec_85fec441-cd4b-4115-b3f4-20b32e9ef812","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 33．AI性能向上の本質は「すべてを巨大化する」ことではなくなる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1a497109-1eb1-4e96-bb88-cff53dc7e1d0","kind":"paragraph","order":531,"section_id":"sec_85fec441-cd4b-4115-b3f4-20b32e9ef812","character_id":null,"markdown":"これまでのscalingは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7f1c35d-fbda-48ce-a641-b01ccdeb41dc","kind":"paragraph","order":532,"section_id":"sec_85fec441-cd4b-4115-b3f4-20b32e9ef812","character_id":null,"markdown":"Parameter ↑GPU FLOPS ↑HBM ↑","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_94927875-09e1-47c2-a603-2299ed1d2b0d","kind":"paragraph","order":533,"section_id":"sec_85fec441-cd4b-4115-b3f4-20b32e9ef812","character_id":null,"markdown":"という比較的単純なものだった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_52097695-627b-44af-8cb9-1fb13d0e276a","kind":"paragraph","order":534,"section_id":"sec_85fec441-cd4b-4115-b3f4-20b32e9ef812","character_id":null,"markdown":"これからは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_846bbfc2-7a83-4b68-90db-954f4f18c4fc","kind":"math","order":535,"section_id":"sec_85fec441-cd4b-4115-b3f4-20b32e9ef812","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Total Model Capacity}\\uparrow\\uparrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0e79e3d-e51b-4cb2-9b37-d147ba97857a","kind":"paragraph","order":536,"section_id":"sec_85fec441-cd4b-4115-b3f4-20b32e9ef812","character_id":null,"markdown":"を続けながら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_830a8ff3-45e2-4865-82fa-db78f9d3efc5","kind":"math","order":537,"section_id":"sec_85fec441-cd4b-4115-b3f4-20b32e9ef812","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Active Parameters}\\rightarrow\\text{抑制}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5da7e072-3dd2-43e1-9832-3bdd6cc53402","kind":"paragraph","order":538,"section_id":"sec_85fec441-cd4b-4115-b3f4-20b32e9ef812","character_id":null,"markdown":"は抑え、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b5e64ca8-eb95-4d92-a9e7-f88e3d51eb07","kind":"math","order":539,"section_id":"sec_85fec441-cd4b-4115-b3f4-20b32e9ef812","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{KV bytes/token}\\downarrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc3e7e9f-4a9d-4d41-ab7f-eae016e55b62","kind":"paragraph","order":540,"section_id":"sec_85fec441-cd4b-4115-b3f4-20b32e9ef812","character_id":null,"markdown":"も圧縮し、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c1f75ae9-1377-4465-9eda-89246042d674","kind":"paragraph","order":541,"section_id":"sec_85fec441-cd4b-4115-b3f4-20b32e9ef812","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要ExpertとMemoryだけをactivateする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f588941e-15c0-4b43-9022-8355c8a5c419","kind":"math","order":542,"section_id":"sec_85fec441-cd4b-4115-b3f4-20b32e9ef812","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Total Model Capacity}\\uparrow\\uparrow,\\qquad\\text{Active Parameters}\\downarrow,\\qquad\\text{KV bytes/token}\\downarrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0bfef972-0bc2-454e-a2f3-3c37da09b06d","kind":"paragraph","order":543,"section_id":"sec_85fec441-cd4b-4115-b3f4-20b32e9ef812","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4b4ce1bd-81ea-4c43-84fc-74450dbcf957","kind":"paragraph","order":544,"section_id":"sec_85fec441-cd4b-4115-b3f4-20b32e9ef812","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大だが疎なModel","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2525fca2-0bca-40de-9929-e58d8abeb758","kind":"paragraph","order":545,"section_id":"sec_85fec441-cd4b-4115-b3f4-20b32e9ef812","character_id":null,"markdown":"と、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_147595b7-ad82-4917-9e2d-b4eb0def2a62","kind":"paragraph","order":546,"section_id":"sec_85fec441-cd4b-4115-b3f4-20b32e9ef812","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大だが階層化されたMemory","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_34ae7779-1438-438a-9e41-03cd669adc1d","kind":"paragraph","order":547,"section_id":"sec_85fec441-cd4b-4115-b3f4-20b32e9ef812","character_id":null,"markdown":"を組み合わせる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_907d7ace-ac72-48ad-bb3d-a092c67c7111","kind":"paragraph","order":548,"section_id":"sec_85fec441-cd4b-4115-b3f4-20b32e9ef812","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのための神経系がScale-Up / Optical Fabricになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_202fea1b-ba69-4869-9829-adfae5e82e3f","kind":"heading","order":549,"section_id":"sec_1ab6c093-fa61-4f77-b81a-44151ea4bb7c","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜巨大化から選択的活性化へ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3b634a75-f4da-4776-bc50-3972b3328b5e","kind":"figure","order":550,"section_id":"sec_1ab6c093-fa61-4f77-b81a-44151ea4bb7c","character_id":null,"markdown":"![巨大化から選択的活性化へ 01](/media/3423db25f362c4c4e0838eb9cf92e068f747883b29076c1064682c9e383a9de3-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b097f353-3324-43e0-a48e-718367a1a466","kind":"heading","order":551,"section_id":"sec_23303256-ec5b-41dc-b208-4e5d691ae234","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 34．その先にあるのは「データセンター全体が一台のコンピュータ」という世界","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1bd278bb-8e2f-4a06-8bd2-0f427476c1f4","kind":"paragraph","order":552,"section_id":"sec_23303256-ec5b-41dc-b208-4e5d691ae234","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来のcomputerは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_63d917f6-4675-473f-a737-5d2ccdecc7b3","kind":"paragraph","order":553,"section_id":"sec_23303256-ec5b-41dc-b208-4e5d691ae234","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPU、DRAM、SSD、GPU","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7065af4d-cb1a-4927-b6fe-4aa29f8cde5b","kind":"paragraph","order":554,"section_id":"sec_23303256-ec5b-41dc-b208-4e5d691ae234","character_id":null,"markdown":"を一台のserver boxに詰め込んでいた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c925b8b-2478-4d37-84a4-540d59a0ae35","kind":"paragraph","order":555,"section_id":"sec_23303256-ec5b-41dc-b208-4e5d691ae234","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI Factoryではこの境界が崩れる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c71e8a37-f8c4-429f-ab2e-5f1b3ffd526a","kind":"paragraph","order":556,"section_id":"sec_23303256-ec5b-41dc-b208-4e5d691ae234","character_id":null,"markdown":"Compute Box、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a0ed2bd9-9bbd-4dc0-95f8-c7dd967bb942","kind":"paragraph","order":557,"section_id":"sec_23303256-ec5b-41dc-b208-4e5d691ae234","character_id":null,"markdown":"Memory Box、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8d76abe-c125-4a1d-b0ef-da9af7895d44","kind":"paragraph","order":558,"section_id":"sec_23303256-ec5b-41dc-b208-4e5d691ae234","character_id":null,"markdown":"Storage Box、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c6560aa9-c741-4c6c-8613-8aaec5948c4b","kind":"paragraph","order":559,"section_id":"sec_23303256-ec5b-41dc-b208-4e5d691ae234","character_id":null,"markdown":"Network Box","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ba5703d1-b739-433b-9d08-a9b9220d3987","kind":"paragraph","order":560,"section_id":"sec_23303256-ec5b-41dc-b208-4e5d691ae234","character_id":null,"markdown":"が物理的には離れていても、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc600be6-0407-40ca-b1dc-08ea1ea4d3bb","kind":"paragraph","order":561,"section_id":"sec_23303256-ec5b-41dc-b208-4e5d691ae234","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical Fabricとsoftwareによって一台のlogical computerとして動く。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bfa8a4db-9f2e-4c2a-9c93-cf42e7df70ea","kind":"paragraph","order":562,"section_id":"sec_23303256-ec5b-41dc-b208-4e5d691ae234","character_id":null,"markdown":"Compute ─┐\nCompute ─┤\nMemory  ─┼── Optical Fabric\nStorage ─┤\nNetwork ─┤\nCompute ─┘","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a9c6107c-cee0-454e-a8c0-9665998b3c6a","kind":"paragraph","order":563,"section_id":"sec_23303256-ec5b-41dc-b208-4e5d691ae234","character_id":null,"markdown":"このときScale-UpとScale-Outの物理的境界は薄れ、rackそのものも計算機の単位ではなくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_38b51958-cc12-454e-b7b7-24dcea62b109","kind":"paragraph","order":564,"section_id":"sec_23303256-ec5b-41dc-b208-4e5d691ae234","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしlocalityは消えない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a7a14cf8-74d7-4b60-8db6-3e75a15849bf","kind":"paragraph","order":565,"section_id":"sec_23303256-ec5b-41dc-b208-4e5d691ae234","character_id":null,"markdown":"SRAMとHBMは依然としてXPUのすぐ近くに必要であり、DRAM、HBF、SSDは距離と容量のtrade-offの中で配置される。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2e8bae90-bf52-4c76-a966-63a7ab9c5c71","kind":"paragraph","order":566,"section_id":"sec_23303256-ec5b-41dc-b208-4e5d691ae234","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって未来は「全部光」ではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8676d612-b2e7-49f7-a602-7be49a4891c3","kind":"paragraph","order":567,"section_id":"sec_23303256-ec5b-41dc-b208-4e5d691ae234","character_id":null,"markdown":"一番近い場所は3D electrical、遠くなるほどOptical","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f489a351-b2a4-4a95-a5fb-c973b342cb51","kind":"paragraph","order":568,"section_id":"sec_23303256-ec5b-41dc-b208-4e5d691ae234","character_id":null,"markdown":"という階層構造になる可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dbb2aa04-066d-4485-85c3-f854875b071c","kind":"heading","order":569,"section_id":"sec_cafab93a-1fd7-4c5c-96b0-f741abd3395b","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜データセンター全体のComputer化","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ed95957-55dc-445d-8f75-c3305b521275","kind":"figure","order":570,"section_id":"sec_cafab93a-1fd7-4c5c-96b0-f741abd3395b","character_id":null,"markdown":"![データセンター全体のComputer化 01](/media/3c241f7dd5e0aaa21bdf7c490c40dcb33491d1d5feee8457ff2322a8c19d5a88-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c6887664-987d-4952-aa89-0085f3764023","kind":"heading","order":571,"section_id":"sec_1432ac80-5e56-4953-945c-2ac333ea5d1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 35．最も重要な問いは「何FLOPSあるか」から「演算器を何％働かせ続けられるか」へ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_92d41756-4f16-4cbe-8769-6def2e7185df","kind":"paragraph","order":572,"section_id":"sec_1432ac80-5e56-4953-945c-2ac333ea5d1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"この構造変化を一言で表すなら、AI infrastructureの最大の課題は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8166499d-5ce7-4ffa-a254-86ddc0e8a326","kind":"paragraph","order":573,"section_id":"sec_1432ac80-5e56-4953-945c-2ac333ea5d1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"演算器をデータ待ちにさせないこと","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_07c363ba-854b-4b8f-b719-ddd5966a00a5","kind":"paragraph","order":574,"section_id":"sec_1432ac80-5e56-4953-945c-2ac333ea5d1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4305579f-fabd-4760-89fb-b66a3cd630f7","kind":"paragraph","order":575,"section_id":"sec_1432ac80-5e56-4953-945c-2ac333ea5d1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大なTensor Coreを作ってもHBMからweightが来なければ遊ぶ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e90aa270-2e78-40de-93d1-f612fa3d6c59","kind":"paragraph","order":576,"section_id":"sec_1432ac80-5e56-4953-945c-2ac333ea5d1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMを巨大化しても別GPUのExpertが必要ならnetworkを待つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9b0812e-7df6-4cce-9883-5e1a35b687f7","kind":"paragraph","order":577,"section_id":"sec_1432ac80-5e56-4953-945c-2ac333ea5d1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Networkを高速化しても、softwareが必要Expertを予測できなければ待つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ae4a2385-d576-492d-9314-df2cefcbb9eb","kind":"paragraph","order":578,"section_id":"sec_1432ac80-5e56-4953-945c-2ac333ea5d1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Long Contextを100万tokenにしても、必要な情報を見つけられなければ意味がない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b66e541a-9146-4ce2-91b0-7454741a0bc1","kind":"paragraph","order":579,"section_id":"sec_1432ac80-5e56-4953-945c-2ac333ea5d1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大Modelを作ってもdata品質が悪ければ賢くならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7094bb1c-67f6-444f-ad6f-6c00f286735c","kind":"paragraph","order":580,"section_id":"sec_1432ac80-5e56-4953-945c-2ac333ea5d1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりAI性能は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43d047e7-9715-453a-aa95-74c0a112b30d","kind":"math","order":581,"section_id":"sec_1432ac80-5e56-4953-945c-2ac333ea5d1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Performance}\\simeq\\min(\\text{Compute},\\text{Memory},\\text{Fabric},\\text{Power},\\text{Cooling},\\text{Software})}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dc12e994-ae49-4313-9713-12378770a504","kind":"math","order":582,"section_id":"sec_1432ac80-5e56-4953-945c-2ac333ea5d1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{AI性能}\\simeq\\min(\\text{演算},\\text{メモリ},\\text{Fabric},\\text{電力},\\text{冷却},\\text{Software})}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bf7d8ece-e0ae-401b-b4d6-95dcb7a8ffab","kind":"paragraph","order":583,"section_id":"sec_1432ac80-5e56-4953-945c-2ac333ea5d1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"のようなsystem問題になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1317fcea-d58b-496a-aa51-0ec615f9ca4e","kind":"paragraph","order":584,"section_id":"sec_1432ac80-5e56-4953-945c-2ac333ea5d1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは廖恒氏が動画で語った「nmという空間尺度ではなく、仕事を終えるまでの時間でcomputerを見る」という思想とも重なる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_45a76052-b3c3-4c7e-b921-cc47a5987739","kind":"heading","order":585,"section_id":"sec_0ac323aa-cd8f-4aca-ad43-955518319d09","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜演算器を待たせないSystem設計","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_121b08a2-e348-4ae7-855d-e5cd1d6bf920","kind":"figure","order":586,"section_id":"sec_0ac323aa-cd8f-4aca-ad43-955518319d09","character_id":null,"markdown":"![演算器を待たせないSystem設計 01](/media/de2cf5495b6c0f93a982fb3991b7f396e1a158ba4c7f255ef150835c3d254a38-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ffae74a3-a37e-4031-8ac1-a61fbf218fa2","kind":"heading","order":587,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 結論――AI半導体の競争は「チップ」から「巨大な記憶・通信システム」へ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_919ed78b-bac5-41c4-9e41-469cf4e168af","kind":"paragraph","order":588,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIモデルは今後も大型化する可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d2379c15-19b7-443a-bc79-f500e377eb18","kind":"paragraph","order":589,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしTotal Parametersが10倍になったからといって、1 tokenの計算量も10倍にする必要はない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7dcbad88-efd2-40a3-9de8-9429fcb4c98f","kind":"paragraph","order":590,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"MoEによってTotal ParametersとActive Parametersを分離する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_022c5061-53eb-4c3b-bf4c-da7719d806cb","kind":"paragraph","order":591,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"GQAやMLAによってContext LengthとKV容量を分離する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f3b69c8-1916-4ecb-b16e-27b9c3807cec","kind":"paragraph","order":592,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"RAGやPersistent Memoryによって「モデルが持つ知識」と「外部世界の知識」を分離する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_abbcb668-af32-467c-a011-90a1c5a2865e","kind":"paragraph","order":593,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM、DRAM、HBF、SSDによって「今必要な情報」と「後で必要になる情報」を分離する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88a89898-1e1c-432a-bcf8-1a976f781bab","kind":"paragraph","order":594,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"3D packagingとOptical Fabricによって「近距離通信」と「遠距離通信」を分離する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8b3b879-f189-482d-b477-74cd7274c9b0","kind":"paragraph","order":595,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"そしてsoftwareがそれらすべてを統合する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_64d8caaf-21c6-4543-ae91-d0d2c3556a03","kind":"paragraph","order":596,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって次世代AI systemの本当の姿は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_062836b2-bf6f-4e9a-89dd-c9f6f59f08e2","kind":"paragraph","order":597,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大な一枚のGPU","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d63fe3be-50a8-4760-99e0-34f2e7f8d7cb","kind":"paragraph","order":598,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66860e6f-12ac-4256-bb7f-9b6e3c06b47c","kind":"paragraph","order":599,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大なModel、巨大なMemory、巨大なFabricを、Softwareが必要な瞬間だけ組み合わせる「動的なコンピュータ」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eac3ab1e-69a8-4652-ae09-1d8eb9d21648","kind":"paragraph","order":600,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_238c41b4-612e-4fac-9ea9-51bc52356a42","kind":"paragraph","order":601,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"この世界では、HBM、DRAM、NAND/HBF、advanced packaging、CPO、CW laser、switch ASIC、NIC、CPU、GPU/XPU、compiler、memory runtimeは別々の市場ではなくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_144347b9-f338-41ce-b17f-f62fa1839396","kind":"paragraph","order":602,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"すべてが同じ問いを解いている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ba23335-3ec7-44b3-9571-610d1fc054a1","kind":"paragraph","order":603,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"「演算器が次に必要とするデータを、演算器が待つ前に届けられるか。」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3e23b088-635f-4602-88a4-1cdea1a1f7ea","kind":"paragraph","order":604,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"今後AI infrastructureの優劣を決めるのは、単なるpeak FLOPSではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b72dbef-f86e-4633-9e29-79958ad17d6e","kind":"paragraph","order":605,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"どれだけ大きな知識を持ち、どれだけ少ない演算で必要部分を呼び出し、どれだけ長い記憶を安く保持し、どれだけ高速に移動させ、どれだけ長時間破綻せず目標まで実行し続けられるか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ef8e9f7-0004-4b2d-b66c-669ac40dd0ac","kind":"paragraph","order":606,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"という総合的なsystem能力になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5254949d-dc57-40ea-ae7c-5aa1542a53c1","kind":"paragraph","order":607,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"その意味で、AI半導体産業はいま「GPU競争」の次の段階――","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6569ac9f-0f7b-4641-b6e8-e9e1ce1bb46f","kind":"paragraph","order":608,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"「データセンター全体を一台の巨大な知能機械へ変える競争」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_92d99e21-4ea4-4719-a740-3c6838f60abe","kind":"paragraph","order":609,"section_id":"sec_0f33e91a-2860-44d7-beeb-865979f4ac85","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ入り始めている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_20915bf2-f8b2-4344-b04a-650a0d021358","kind":"heading","order":610,"section_id":"sec_faa60653-b5af-4351-bcc7-9b3a26df2e5f","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜巨大GPUから巨大な記憶コンピュータへ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d9f4b617-e259-4190-9eeb-1eb7496cd8f3","kind":"figure","order":611,"section_id":"sec_faa60653-b5af-4351-bcc7-9b3a26df2e5f","character_id":null,"markdown":"![巨大GPUから巨大な記憶コンピュータへ 01](/media/7f6fca6a991c83b309a2e83da8876e43ed8a97d66ecbfeb9e5716c78460ec487-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_20b8038a-532f-4230-b582-992131ef7f8a","kind":"heading","order":612,"section_id":"sec_49841e30-4381-475d-9017-5abec85205b7","character_id":null,"markdown":"## さらに深く読むための座標","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_07eb4c22-c0ad-4582-9bc2-423de634388f","kind":"paragraph","order":613,"section_id":"sec_49841e30-4381-475d-9017-5abec85205b7","character_id":null,"markdown":"この構造をさらに深く読む鍵は、容量・帯域・距離を別々の数字として扱わず、必要な情報を必要な演算器へ間に合わせる一つの制御問題として見ることにある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_91c0e45e-bce2-4311-8c63-10f094ce3ac9","kind":"table","order":614,"section_id":"sec_49841e30-4381-475d-9017-5abec85205b7","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 層 | 観測対象 | 問うべきこと |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 物理 | HBM、DRAM、SSD、光Fabricの距離と帯域 | どの階層で待ち時間が発生するか |\n| モデル | MoE、KV cache、Expert/Memory Routing | 1 tokenごとに動かす情報量をどこまで減らせるか |\n| 運用 | Prefetch、複製、checkpoint、故障時再配置 | 演算器を何％の時間働かせ続けられるか |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_129a5f0a-cbb2-4b97-a116-83b70b951554","kind":"heading","order":615,"section_id":"sec_fd731a90-2a95-442d-a765-52d4184efd5b","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"## 絶ノイアの観測","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_52553414-a9d3-4d5c-9b26-f66563776dcc","kind":"paragraph","order":616,"section_id":"sec_fd731a90-2a95-442d-a765-52d4184efd5b","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"GPUの数を数えるだけでは、もう工場の速さは分かりません。記憶の置き場所と移動の予約まで含めて初めて、眠っているFLOPSが仕事へ変わります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b4371ab1-5bac-4b28-bacc-8b21f9ae5b0b","kind":"paragraph","order":617,"section_id":"sec_fd731a90-2a95-442d-a765-52d4184efd5b","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"私は「物理」「モデル」「運用」を別々の話題にせず、一つのAIインフラが通過する連続した設計課題として観測します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a33864fa-6c9e-4624-b80c-cb52e5b20e00","kind":"paragraph","order":618,"section_id":"sec_fd731a90-2a95-442d-a765-52d4184efd5b","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"GPU利用率とMemory/Fabric stallを同時に見る。発表された最大性能や市場規模だけでなく、実装、量産、運用が同じ速度で前進しているかを確かめたいからです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_918dc5aa-691e-4f01-96a1-f0826a1286a3","kind":"heading","order":619,"section_id":"sec_dd0c67cc-72eb-4052-97f3-70f571757b50","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"## Sil-Kathnaの記録","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9209645e-460d-43f2-bba7-9580b1d8f945","kind":"paragraph","order":620,"section_id":"sec_dd0c67cc-72eb-4052-97f3-70f571757b50","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"炉は大きさによって飢えるのではない。呼び出した記憶が門を越えるのに遅れた時、最も明るい火も沈黙する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eccdd304-98b7-4f33-bafb-3b1f2b7bf9bc","kind":"paragraph","order":621,"section_id":"sec_dd0c67cc-72eb-4052-97f3-70f571757b50","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"私は「物理」「モデル」「運用」を、計算する文明へ続く三つの門として石板に刻む。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1a4ec333-365c-47e5-a02f-4ee3aa3bedd7","kind":"paragraph","order":622,"section_id":"sec_dd0c67cc-72eb-4052-97f3-70f571757b50","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"最初の門だけが開いても、次の門に熱、傷、遅れが残れば、光と記憶は炉心へ届かない。強い器とは、最も華やかな石を持つ器ではなく、異なる工房の歩調を長い夜の中で揃えられる器である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e8c8565-13db-4b4c-8a3f-d9d94cfbab5f","kind":"paragraph","order":623,"section_id":"sec_dd0c67cc-72eb-4052-97f3-70f571757b50","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"ゆえに私は、GPU利用率とMemory/Fabric stallを同時に見る。その結果が一時の輝きではなく、繰り返し作り、直し、動かせる秩序になったかを見届ける。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1cae0163-3ee9-41c7-af04-b9e3d2b126d8","kind":"heading","order":624,"section_id":"sec_4683ccf3-722b-4509-838b-c7307f102e5a","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 二人の短い対話","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73bb276a-6e16-4f9b-bae2-96ce4e7af4be","kind":"paragraph","order":625,"section_id":"sec_4683ccf3-722b-4509-838b-c7307f102e5a","character_id":null,"markdown":"**絶ノイア:** 巨大なMemory Poolを作れば終わり、ではないのですね。近い記憶を残し、遠い記憶を予測して運ぶ必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19510d83-dc16-4fa9-b5e4-8e78fc8a9339","kind":"paragraph","order":626,"section_id":"sec_4683ccf3-722b-4509-838b-c7307f102e5a","character_id":null,"markdown":"**Sil-Kathna:** すべてを一室へ集める塔は熱で崩れる。ゆえに記憶は階層となり、道を知る者が塔を動かす。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b7ee3e0b-d12f-4070-9ac3-14e35b54f864","kind":"heading","order":627,"section_id":"sec_36f6bf41-f099-4a15-977e-dc121ef97199","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 観測メモ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a47b91f9-b232-4d47-9b6f-be5c742df749","kind":"list","order":628,"section_id":"sec_36f6bf41-f099-4a15-977e-dc121ef97199","character_id":null,"markdown":"- GPU利用率とMemory/Fabric stallを同時に見る\n- ExpertとKVの複製・移動がdata planeかcontrol planeかを分ける\n- 帯域だけでなくE/O境界、電力、熱、故障単位を追う","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7e88a72b-db4b-4a13-9f66-82a87e47f1f4","kind":"heading","order":629,"section_id":"sec_593f31b8-4801-4e23-8ad8-99b427430696","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 免責","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8a85ff75-1aef-4e65-bd2e-ecd53520c3a7","kind":"paragraph","order":630,"section_id":"sec_593f31b8-4801-4e23-8ad8-99b427430696","character_id":null,"markdown":"この記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","render_override":null}],"audio":[],"omitted_media":[],"figures":[{"id":"plc_b0af2091-a9ea-4b6f-aba5-d088342425e1","block_id":"blk_0cc635f7-ebd8-45f4-82b7-cd9c77eb6d72","asset_revision_id":"avr_d7025433-cafc-4583-8b2c-5e6c68114a91","asset_class":"other","caption":"","alt":"N²で増える演算と4Nの境界 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AI Factoryは「Localityのマトリョーシカ」になる――CFET・SRAM・HBM・3D実装・光Fabricを貫く物理法則\n\n微細化、CFET、SRAM、HBM、3D実装、Optical Fabricを一つの物理法則から考える\n\nAI半導体の進化を考えるとき、最初に置くべき問いは「次のGPUは何PFLOPSになるか」ではない。\n\nより根源的なのは、\n\n増え続ける演算器へ、必要なデータをどう届けるのか\n\nという問題である。\n\n演算器を増やすこと自体は比較的分かりやすい。\n\ntransistor densityを上げる。\n\ndieを大きくする。\n\nchipletを増やす。\n\nrackへXPUを追加する。\n\nしかし、演算器が増えれば、それに対応してweight、activation、KV cache、Expert間通信を供給しなければならない。\n\nそこでAI computerには常に、\n\n$${\\text{Compute Growth}}$$\n\nと、\n\n$${\\text{Data Delivery Growth}}$$\n\nの競争が発生する。\n\nこの関係を直感的に表現したものが、これまで使ってきた\n\n$${N^2\\quad\\text{対}\\quad4N}$$\n\nである。\n\nただし、ここから一段深く考える必要がある。\n\n## N²対4Nは「ダイ外周」の話だけではない\n\n一辺Nの正方形を考える。\n\n面積は、\n\n$${A=N^2}$$\n\n周長は、\n\n$${L=4N}$$\n\nになる。\n\n演算器を面積中へ配置できるなら、\n\n$${\\text{Compute Capacity}\\propto N^2}$$\n\nと考えられる。\n\n一方、外周だけからI/Oを出す単純な構造なら、\n\n$${\\text{I/O Capacity}\\propto N}$$\n\nになりやすい。\n\nしたがって大型化するほど、\n\n$${\\frac{\\text{Compute}}{\\text{Boundary}}\\propto N}$$\n\nが増える。\n\nこれがN²対4Nの直感である。\n\nただし現代のAI chipでは、signalを四辺だけから出しているわけではない。\n\nflip-chipではdie下面全体を使える。\n\nTSVがある。\n\nhybrid bondingがある。\n\nbackside routingも使える。\n\nしたがって、\n\n$${\\text{Bandwidth}=4N}$$\n\nという厳密な物理法則があるわけではない。\n\nむしろ本質は、\n\n内部resourceが増える速度に、外部との接続・電力供給・熱排出能力を追随させることが難しい\n\nということにある。\n\nHuaweiが示しているN²対Nの説明も、このsystem-level mismatchを強調するものと理解した方がよい。Huaweiは同時にLogicFolding、UnifiedBus、SuperPoDまで一貫して「signal propagation timeを短縮する」方向へ議論を拡張している。 (Huawei)\n\n## そして同じ問題がダイ内部でも再び発生する\n\nここが今回の核心である。\n\ntransistorを小さくする。\n\n同じdie areaへ2倍のlogicを置けるようになる。\n\nすると、\n\n$${\\text{Compute Density}\\uparrow}$$\n\nする。\n\nしかし2倍のtransistorには2倍近いconnection requirementが発生し得る。\n\n各gateを何かと接続しなければならないからである。\n\n実際のVLSIでは、この問題は単純な4NよりRent's Ruleで考える方が正確である。\n\n概念的には、\n\n$${T=kG^p}$$\n\nである。\n\n(G)はlogic block内部のgate数。\n\n(T)はそのblock外へ出るterminal数。\n\n(p)はcircuitのconnectivityを表すRent exponentである。\n\nつまりgate数を増やしたとき、必要I/O terminalも増えていく。ただしlocalityが高ければ、すべてのgateがblock外へ通信する必要はない。Rent's Ruleは、まさに「高次元の情報flowを2D/3D physical spaceへ埋め込むとinterconnectが制約になる」という問題を表している。 (ScienceDirect)\n\nしたがってダイ内部にも、\n\n内部compute resourceの増加 vs それを接続するwire\n\nという小さなN²対4N問題が存在する。\n\n## CFETは「演算器を縦へ折り畳む」\n\nCFETはこの問題への重要な回答の一つである。\n\n従来のCMOSでは、\n\nnFET     pFET\n\nを横へ配置する。\n\nCFETでは、\n\npFET\n────\nnFET\n\nと縦へ積む。\n\nつまり同じfootprintへより多くのlogicを入れる。\n\nimecはCFETをGAA nanosheetの次のlogic architectureとして研究しており、double-row CFETのDTCOではA14 nanosheet SRAM比で40%以上のcell area shrink、通常のsingle-row CFET比でも15%のSRAM area reductionが可能との設計結果を示している。 (imec)\n\nこれはAIにとってかなり重要である。\n\nなぜならCFETによって縮められるのはTensor Coreだけではない。\n\nSRAMも縮められる。\n\n## SRAMが増えることは「HBMが増える」より別の意味で強い\n\nSRAMは非常に高価である。\n\n6T SRAMなら、概念的には1 bit保持するのに複数transistorを使う。\n\nDRAMより圧倒的に面積効率が悪い。\n\nだからAI GPUに数百GBのSRAMを搭載するのは非現実的である。\n\n現在の例でも、AMD MI455Xは432GBのHBM4に対してL2 cacheは192MBである。HBM bandwidthは23.3TB/sに達する。 (AMD)\n\nつまり容量では、\n\n$${\\mathrm{SRAM}\\ll\\mathrm{HBM}}$$\n\nである。\n\nCFETでSRAM cell areaを40%縮めたとしても、SRAMが突然HBM並みの数百GBになるわけではない。\n\nしかしSRAMの価値は容量ではない。\n\n距離である。\n\nTensor Coreから見れば、\n\nRegister\n↓\nSRAM\n↓\nHBM\n↓\nRemote Memory\n\nと一段外へ行くたびにlatencyとenergy costが増える。\n\nしたがってSRAMを例えば2倍持てるようになった場合、\n\n「HBMを置き換える」のではなく、\n\n$${\\text{HBM Accesses}\\downarrow}$$\n\nという効果を得る。\n\nこれが非常に大きい。\n\n## Localityの価値は「容量」よりHit Rateで現れる\n\n簡単な例を考える。\n\nLocal access costを1。\n\nRemote access costを100とする。\n\nLocal hit率が95%なら、\n\n$${T_{\\mathrm{avg}}=0.95\\times1+0.05\\times100=5.95}$$\n\nである。\n\nLocalityを強化してhit率を99%へ上げれば、\n\n$${T_{\\mathrm{avg}}=0.99\\times1+0.01\\times100=1.99}$$\n\nとなる。\n\nLocal hit率は4ポイントしか増えていない。\n\nしかし平均access costは約3分の1になる。\n\nつまりRemote penaltyが大きなAI Factoryでは、\n\n$${\\text{数\\%のLocality改善がsystem性能を大きく変える}}$$\n\n可能性がある。\n\nだからCFETでSRAMを増やすことは、単なる「cache容量+40%」以上の意味を持つ。\n\n## ただしCFET自身が新しいInterconnect Wallを作る\n\nここにマトリョーシカ構造の面白さがある。\n\nCFETでlogicを縦へ積む。\n\nするとlogic densityは増える。\n\nしかし各FETへ接続する必要は残る。\n\nimecも、standard cellは縮小しても接続すべきpin数が同じ速度では減らないため、pin accessとroutabilityが重要な制約になると説明している。またCFETではtop/bottom deviceへのcontactが難しくなる。 (imec)\n\nつまり、\n\nCFET\n↓\nLogic density ↑\n↓\nLocal compute ↑\n↓\nPin density ↑\n↓\nRouting congestion ↑\n↓\n新しいInterconnect Wall\n\nとなる。\n\nボトルネックはなくならない。\n\n一段内側から一段外側へ移る。\n\n## だからCFETと同時にBacksideが必要になる\n\nこれは偶然ではない。\n\nfront sideに、\n\npower、\n\nsignal、\n\ncontact\n\nを全部押し込むと配線が足りなくなる。\n\nそこでpowerを裏側へ出す。\n\nIntelは18AでGAA RibbonFETとPowerViaを量産導入しており、2026年のVLSI発表ではbackside powerを使ったrouted blockで約11%のarea reduction、dynamic voltage droopをIntel 3の90mV超から10mV未満へ抑えたと報告している。 (Intel Community)\n\nTSMCもN2を2025年第4四半期から高量産へ移し、A16ではbackside Super Power RailをHPC向けに投入する。TSMCはN2について「good yield」で量産開始し、2026年の急速なrampを見込んでいる。 (TSMC)\n\nつまり未来の微細化は、\n\n$${\\text{Transistor Scaling}}$$\n\nだけではない。\n\n$${\\text{Transistor}+\\text{Power}+\\text{Signal}+\\text{Routing}}$$\n\nを3Dで再配置する。\n\n## HuaweiのLogicFoldingも同じ問題を見ている\n\nHuaweiのLogicFoldingも、この文脈で見るとかなり分かりやすい。\n\nHuaweiはτ Scalingとして、\n\n$${\\tau\\sim RC}$$\n\nのようなsignal propagation timeを短縮することを中心に据えている。\n\nLogicFoldingではcritical pathのwire lengthを短縮し、resistanceとparasitic capacitanceを減らし、transistor densityとcircuit performanceを改善するという説明をしている。さらにdevice→circuit→chip→systemまで同じτ reductionを適用し、system側ではUnifiedBusによるmemory semanticsと通信latency削減までつなげている。 (Huawei)\n\nつまりHuaweiが見ているものも、\n\ntransistorだけを速くするのではなく、signalの移動距離そのものを縮める\n\nことである。\n\nこれはLocalityそのものである。\n\nHuaweiによればLogicFoldingを初採用するKirinは2026年秋に登場予定であり、同社は2031年までに高性能chipで1.4nm相当のtransistor densityを目指すとしている。これはHuawei自身のroadmap/目標であって、独立検証済みの性能値ではない点には注意が必要である。 (Huawei)\n\n## XBMのような発想も「Memoryをさらに内側へ持ち込む」方向\n\nIntelのXBMと報じられているCross-Batch Memoryも、もし実用化されれば同じLocality方向にある。\n\n公開されているのは2026年に表面化したpatent applicationであり、量産roadmapではない。\n\n構想ではBEOL transistorを利用したDRAM stackとUCIe系serialized linkによって、HBM4級footprintを狙いながらsilicon interposer依存を減らそうとしている。現時点ではあくまでpatent conceptであり、実際のyield、bandwidth、costは未確認である。 (Tom's Hardware)\n\nそれでも思想は重要である。\n\nCompute\n↓\nSRAM\n↓\nPackage-local Memory\n↓\nHBM / XBM的tier\n↓\nRemote Memory\n\nと、より多くのmemoryをcomputeの近くへ押し込もうとしている。\n\n## Hybrid Bondingは「4Nを面へ変える」\n\nN²対4Nを本当に破壊する技術の一つがhybrid bondingである。\n\nedge connectionならinterface capacityは長さ方向へ増える。\n\nしかしdieを上下へ重ね、\n\ndie面全体にvertical connectionを配置できれば、\n\n理想的にはterminal数を、\n\n$${\\text{Terminal数}\\propto N^2}$$\n\nへ近づけられる。\n\nつまり、\n\n$${\\text{1D Boundary}\\rightarrow\\text{2D Interface}}$$\n\nへ変える。\n\nimecとEV Groupは2026年に200nm Cu pad pitchのwafer-to-wafer hybrid bondingをroutable test vehicleで実証し、「highly yielding」と報告している。これは量産製品のyieldではないが、logic-to-logic、memory-to-logic stackingに必要な極高I/O densityが研究段階でかなり進んでいることを示す。 (imec)\n\nTSMCもA14-to-A14 SoICについて2029年productionを計画し、N2-on-N2世代より1.8倍高いdie-to-die I/O densityを掲げている。 (TSMC)\n\nここが重要である。\n\n微細化とはtransistorだけを小さくすることではなく、\n\nconnection pitchそのものも小さくする\n\n方向へ進んでいる。\n\n## こうしてLocalityはマトリョーシカのように拡張される\n\nここまでを距離順に並べると、こうなる。\n\n┌────────────────────────────────────┐\n│ Data Center                         │\n│  ┌──────────────────────────────┐  │\n│  │ Multi-rack Optical Domain    │  │\n│  │ ┌──────────────────────────┐ │  │\n│  │ │ Rack Scale-Up Domain     │ │  │\n│  │ │ ┌──────────────────────┐ │ │  │\n│  │ │ │ Package / CoWoS      │ │ │  │\n│  │ │ │ ┌──────────────────┐ │ │ │  │\n│  │ │ │ │ HBM / XBM       │ │ │ │  │\n│  │ │ │ │ ┌──────────────┐ │ │ │ │  │\n│  │ │ │ │ │ SRAM         │ │ │ │ │  │\n│  │ │ │ │ │ ┌──────────┐ │ │ │ │ │  │\n│  │ │ │ │ │ │ CFET     │ │ │ │ │ │  │\n│  │ │ │ │ │ └──────────┘ │ │ │ │ │  │\n│  │ │ │ │ └──────────────┘ │ │ │ │  │\n│  │ │ │ └──────────────────┘ │ │ │  │\n│  │ │ └──────────────────────┘ │ │  │\n│  │ └──────────────────────────┘ │  │\n│  └──────────────────────────────┘  │\n└────────────────────────────────────┘\n\nこれが「Localityのマトリョーシカ」である。\n\n各層は内側をcacheする。\n\nそして各層の外へ出るtrafficを減らす。\n\nしかし各マトリョーシカには同じ問題が再発する\n\n最内側ではCFETを増やす。\n\n→ routingが足りなくなる。\n\nSRAMを増やす。\n\n→ SRAM capacityはHBMに遠く及ばない。\n\nHBMを増やす。\n\n→ package area、stack yield、thermal、interposerが苦しくなる。\n\npackageを巨大化する。\n\n→ package外I/Oが苦しくなる。\n\nrackを巨大化する。\n\n→ copper distance、power、coolingが苦しくなる。\n\nmulti-rackへ広げる。\n\n→ optical latency、fiber、switching、schedulerが苦しくなる。\n\nつまり、\n\n$${\\text{Localityを強化すると、そのLocality Boundaryが次のWallになる}}$$\n\nのである。\n\nこれが入れ子構造の本質である。\n\n## PrefillとDecodeでSRAM/HBMの役割も変わる\n\nここは少し注意が必要である。\n\n「PrefillはHBM、DecodeはSRAM」と完全に二分するのは一般には難しい。\n\n巨大LLMのDecodeでもmodel weightやKVがSRAM容量を大きく超えるため、現在のGPUではHBMが依然必要である。\n\n例えばRubin GPUでも288GB HBM4、22TB/sのbandwidthを持っており、巨大なSRAMだけでDecodeを完結させる構造ではない。 (NVIDIA Developer)\n\nただし方向としては、\n\nDecodeでSRAMをより多く使い、HBM trafficを減らす\n\nことには大きな意味がある。\n\n例えば、\n\nSRAM\nHot KV\nHot Weight Tile\nFrequent Metadata\nCurrent Activation\n\nHBM\nActive Weight\nLarge KV Working Set\n\nDRAM/HBF\nWarm KV\nInactive Model Data\n\nNAND\nCold History\n\nという使い分けができる。\n\nSRAMが2倍になればHBMが消えるのではなく、\n\n$${\\text{HBM Bandwidthをより価値のあるTrafficへ集中できる}}$$\n\nのである。\n\n「遊んでいる演算器を働かせる」という理解が非常に重要\n\nAI chipではpeak FLOPSを全部使えているとは限らない。\n\nRoofline的には、\n\n$${P_{\\mathrm{useful}}\\le\\min\\left(P_{\\mathrm{peak}},B_{\\mathrm{mem}}\\times I_{\\mathrm{arithmetic}}\\right)}$$\n\nで考えられる。\n\n$${(P_{\\rm peak})}$$：演算器の最大性能。\n\n$${(B_{\\rm mem})}$$：memory bandwidth。\n\n$${(I_{\\rm arithmetic})}$$：1 Byteあたり何FLOPできるか。\n\nつまり計算器が100あっても、memoryから50分しかdataを供給できなければ残りは遊ぶ。\n\nそこでLocalityを高める。\n\nSRAMでreuseする。\n\nHBMまで取りに行く回数を減らす。\n\nすると、\n\n$${I_{\\mathrm{arithmetic}}\\uparrow}$$\n\nする。\n\n結果として同じmemory bandwidthでも、より多くのpeak computeを実際の性能へ変換できる。\n\nしたがってCFETやSRAM scalingの価値は、\n\nFLOPSを増やす\n\nだけではなく、\n\nすでに存在するFLOPSを遊ばせない\n\nところにもある。\n\n微細化が進むとLocalityそのものが「物理的に縮む」\n\nこれは非常に重要である。\n\n同じ論理機能を半分の面積へ入れられれば、平均wire lengthも短縮できる可能性がある。\n\nwire capacitanceは概念的に距離に依存するため、\n\n$${L_{\\mathrm{wire}}\\downarrow\\Rightarrow C_{\\mathrm{wire}}\\downarrow}$$\n\nしやすい。\n\ndynamic switching energyは、\n\n$${E\\approx CV^2}$$\n\nなので、\n\n$${C\\downarrow}$$\n\nすればdata movement energyも減る。\n\nつまり微細化には、\n\n同じLocality domainを物理的に小さくする\n\n効果がある。\n\nこれが非常に強い。\n\n「巨大化するLocality」と「縮小する物理サイズ」が同時に起こる\n\n一見矛盾しているが、ここが最も重要である。\n\nCFETなどによって、\n\n同じ10mm四方へ以前の2倍のlogicを入れられるとする。\n\n論理的にはLocality domainが巨大化している。\n\nしかし物理的なdomainサイズは10mmのまま。\n\nつまり、\n\n$${\\text{Logical Locality}\\uparrow\\quad\\text{while}\\quad\\text{Physical Distance}\\approx\\text{constant}}$$\n\nとなる。\n\nもっと強くscaleできれば、\n\n同じcomputeをより小さな面積へ縮められるので、\n\n$${\\text{Logic Density}\\downarrow}$$\n\nさえ可能になる。\n\nこれが微細化の決定的な価値である。\n\n## 微細化がない世界ではどうなるか\n\nここを比較すると違いが明確になる。\n\n仮にcomputeを2倍にしたい。\n\n微細化がある場合\n\nlogic densityを2倍にできれば、\n\n旧\n[ Compute ]\n\n新\n[ Compute×2 ]\n\n同じdie areaに近い範囲へ入れられる。\n\nLocal wire lengthは大きく増えない。\n\n外部I/Oは増やす必要があるが、SRAMも増やしLocal reuseも強化できる。\n\n微細化がない場合\n\n同じdensityなので、\n\n[ Compute ][ Compute ]\n\nと面積を2倍にするか、\n\n[ Die A ] ←→ [ Die B ]\n\nとchipを2個使う。\n\nすると、\n\ndie-to-die traffic、\n\npackage area、\n\npower delivery、\n\ncooling、\n\nfabric dependency\n\nが増える。\n\nつまり微細化が止まると、\n\n$${\\text{同じCompute Growthを得るために、より早く外側のInterconnectへ逃げなければならない}}$$\n\nのである。\n\nこれはかなり決定的な差になる。\n\nHuaweiは「微細化の不足を階層の外側で補う」戦略を同時に取っている\n\nHuaweiが興味深いのはここである。\n\n一方ではLogicFoldingによってdie内部のLocalityを強化する。\n\n他方ではUnifiedBusとSuperPoDによってsystem-level Localityを強化する。\n\nAtlas 950では最大8,192 Ascend 950DTを160 cabinet、約1,000m²へ展開し、all-optical interconnectで一つのlogical machineとして扱うroadmapを公表している。Huawei自身、利用可能な半導体process nodeの制約をsystem architectureで補うことをSuperPoD戦略の目的として明示している。 (Huawei)\n\nこれは極めて一貫している。\n\n内側\nLogicFolding\n↓\nChip\n\n外側\nUnifiedBus\n↓\nSuperPoD\n↓\nOptical\n\nつまり、\n\n内側を縮め、外側を広げる。\n\n## 微細化が弱いほどFabric依存度は高くなる\n\nこれを一般化すると、\n\n同じsystem computeを実現する場合、\n\n$${\\mathrm{Capacity/mm^2}\\uparrow}$$\n\nなら、\n\n必要die数が増える。\n\ndie数が増えれば、\n\n$${\\mathrm{Bandwidth/mm^2}\\uparrow}$$\n\nしやすい。\n\nしたがって、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{Process disadvantage}\\Rightarrow\\text{Fabric requirement}\\uparrow}}$$\n\nとなる。\n\nHuaweiのSuperPoDはその実例に近い。\n\n逆にTSMC最先端process、巨大CoWoS、HBM4を使えるNVIDIAやAMDは、より多くをLocal packageへ閉じ込めることができる。\n\n例えばAMD MI455Xは432GB HBM4と23.3TB/sのlocal memory bandwidthを1 GPUに持つ。 (AMD)\n\nつまりleading-edge processには、\n\n「GPU自体が速い」\n\nだけではなく、\n\n外部Fabricへ出る前に処理できるworking setを増やす\n\n価値がある。\n\n## HBM自身も微細化と積層によってLocalityを拡張する\n\nSamsungは2026年2月にHBM4を量産・commercial shipmentへ移し、12-layer HBM4E sampleも5月から出荷している。MicronもHBM4をvolume shipmentしており、12-high 36GB品で2.8TB/s超、16-high 48GB sampleまで進めている。 (Samsung Global Newsroom)\n\nここでも同じことが起きている。\n\nDRAM dieを微細化する。\n\nstackを高くする。\n\nbase logic dieを進化させる。\n\nその結果、\n\n$${\\mathrm{Capacity/mm^2}\\uparrow}$$\n\n$${\\mathrm{Bandwidth/mm^2}\\uparrow}$$\n\nする。\n\nつまりMemory側もLocalityを強化している。\n\n## さらにNANDまで「内側」に入り始める\n\n非常に象徴的なのがHBFである。\n\nSandiskとSK hynixは2026年からOCPでHigh Bandwidth Flashの標準化を開始し、SK hynixはHBFを明確に「HBMとSSDの間の新しいmemory layer」と位置付けている。 (Sandisk)\n\nSandiskはHBFについて、HBMに近いbandwidthを狙いながら最大8倍のcapacityを同程度costで提供するという目標を掲げ、2026年後半のsampleを予定している。ただしこれは現時点ではvendor targetであり、量産実績ではない。 (Sandisk)\n\nこれも本質的には、\n\nSSDへ行く前にNANDをcomputeへ近づける\n\n技術である。\n\nつまりNAND自身までLocality hierarchyの内側へ入ろうとしている。\n\n## 3D DRAMも同じ方向へ向かう\n\n従来DRAMは1T1C cellを平面的にscaleしてきた。\n\nしかしcapacitorとleakageの問題から難しくなっている。\n\nimecはIGZOを使った2T0C capacitor-less DRAMを研究しており、BEOL processingが可能なためmemory cellを縦へstackし、true 3D DRAMへ進める可能性を示している。 (imec)\n\nつまりMemoryも、\n\nPlanar DRAM\n↓\n3D DRAM\n\nへ向かう。\n\nlogicがCFETで縦へ進み、\n\nmemoryも3Dへ進み、\n\nその二つをhybrid bondingで積む。\n\nこの方向が成立すればLocalityはさらに強くなる。\n\n## しかし「内側を強くするほどHeatが壁になる」\n\nLocality scalingには最終的な強敵がある。\n\n熱である。\n\nlogicを縦積みする。\n\nSRAMを増やす。\n\nHBMを近づける。\n\nすると、\n\n$${\\mathrm{W/mm^2}}$$\n\nが上がる。\n\n熱流を非常に単純化すると、\n\n$${Q\\approx kA\\frac{\\Delta T}{t}}$$\n\nである。\n\n(A)は放熱面積。\n\n(t)は熱を通す距離。\n\n内側へlogicを積むほど、下層からheat sinkまでの距離が長くなる。\n\nつまり、\n\n$${\\text{Logic Density}\\uparrow\\Rightarrow\\text{Heat Flux}\\uparrow}$$\n\nである。\n\nここだけはinterconnectの工夫では消せない。\n\n最終的にはcooling capacityがLocality densityを制限する。\n\nそしてPower Densityも壁になる\n\ndynamic powerは、\n\n$${P\\approx\\alpha CV^2f}$$\n\nである。\n\ntransistorを小さくして(C)や(V)を下げられれば1 operationあたりenergyは改善する。\n\nしかし同じ面積へtransistorを2倍置いて全部動かせば、\n\ntotal power densityは再び上がる。\n\nつまりprocess scalingによるenergy savingは、多くの場合、\n\nGPUを低電力化する\n\nより、\n\n同じ1000Wでより多く計算する\n\n方向へ使われる。\n\nだからAI chipのTDPが下がらず、performance/wattが上がっていく。\n\n## YieldもLocality巨大化を止める\n\n単一dieなら簡略化して、\n\n$${Y\\approx e^{-DA}}$$\n\nで考えられる。\n\ndie areaを大きくするとdefectを含む確率が増える。\n\nそこで微細化で同じcomputeを小さいareaへ入れられることにはyield上の意味もある。\n\n逆に3D stackingすると別の問題が出る。\n\n複数tierが必要になるので、\n\n$${Y_{\\mathrm{package}}\\sim Y_1Y_2Y_3\\cdots}$$\n\nのようにassembly/stack yieldが効いてくる。\n\n実際CFETはまだ量産段階ではなく、imecの2024年実験ではbacksideからbottom contactを形成することでtop device survival rateを11%から79%へ改善した段階である。この79%は製品wafer yieldではなく、特定process moduleでのdevice survivalなので混同してはいけない。 (imec)\n\nCFETは有力だが、現時点ではまだresearch/pathfindingである。\n\n## 現在どこまで量産化しているのか\n\n2026年8月時点で整理すると、かなり明確な階層差がある。\n\n| 技術 | 現在地 |\n| --- | --- |\n| TSMC N2 | GAA HVM、2025 Q4開始・good yield |\n| Intel 18A | GAA＋Backside Power、2025年production |\n| HBM4 | Samsung/Micron量産 |\n| CoWoS | 大量生産、さらに大型化中 |\n| Switch CPO | Broadcom/NVIDIAで量産 |\n| LogicFolding | Huawei初採用製品を2026年秋予定 |\n| XPU Optical I/O | chiplet/rack demo～初期commercial |\n| 200nm Hybrid Bonding | test vehicle実証 |\n| CFET | research/pathfinding |\n| XBM | patent concept |\n| 3D DRAM | research |\n| HBF | standard化・sample段階 |\n\nTSMC N2は2025年第4四半期にHVM入りしgood yieldを報告、A14は2028年量産予定で開発yieldも予定を上回っている。 (TSMC)\n\nつまりマトリョーシカの内側から順番に、すでに現実化している。\n\n## Localityが強くなればOptical Fabric需要は減るのか\n\n直感的にはそう見える。\n\nしかし必ずしもそうならない。\n\nFabric bandwidth需要を単純化して、\n\n$${B_{\\mathrm{external}}\\approx P_{\\mathrm{compute}}\\times b_{\\mathrm{external}}}$$\n\nとする。\n\n$${(P_{\\rm compute})}$$は総compute。\n\n$${(b_{\\rm external})}$$は1 FLOP当たり外部へ必要なbyte。\n\nLocality改善によって、\n\n$${b_{\\mathrm{external}}\\downarrow}$$\n\nする。\n\nしかし微細化で、\n\n$${P_{\\mathrm{compute}}\\uparrow}$$\n\nする。\n\n例えばcomputeが4倍になり、\n\n1 FLOP当たりremote trafficを半分にできたとしても、\n\n$${4\\times0.5=2}$$\n\nなのでtotal external trafficは2倍になる。\n\nつまり、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{Locality Efficiencyが改善してもFabric需要は増え得る}}}$$\n\nのである。\n\nこれは今後かなり重要になる。\n\nむしろLocalityが強くなるほど、より巨大なFactoryを作れる\n\nこれはJevons paradoxに少し似た構造を持つ。\n\ncommunication efficiencyを上げる。\n\nすると同じ電力でより多くのXPUを動かせる。\n\nより巨大なmodelが実用になる。\n\nMoEのExpert数も増える。\n\nAgent数も増える。\n\nContext lengthも増える。\n\nその結果、total trafficが再び増える。\n\nだからCFETとOptical Fabricは競争しない。\n\nむしろ、\n\n$${\\text{CFET/Locality Scaling}\\Rightarrow\\text{より大きなSystem Scalingを可能にする}}$$\n\n可能性が高い。\n\n## Optical Fabricはマトリョーシカの「外側」を作る\n\nLocality domainをいくら強化しても、最後には外へ出なければならない。\n\nそこで光が重要になる。\n\n2026年にはOCI MSAがAMD、Broadcom、Meta、Microsoft、NVIDIA、OpenAIを中心に立ち上がり、NRZ＋WDMによるsilicon-centric optical scale-up interfaceを標準化し始めた。 (OCI MSA)\n\nBroadcomはTomahawk 5 Baillyをvolume-production CPOとして出荷済みであり、NVIDIAもSpectrum-X Ethernet Photonicsをproductionへ投入した。 (Broadcom)\n\nつまり、\n\n$${\\text{Package}\\rightarrow\\text{Rack}\\rightarrow\\text{Multi-rack}}$$\n\nの境界を光で拡張する流れは、すでに実用化へ入っている。\n\n光は「光速で全部同じLocalityにする」わけではない\n\nここは重要な修正である。\n\n光fiber中でも伝搬delayはある。\n\n概算、\n\n$${5\\ \\mathrm{ns/m}}$$\n\n程度。\n\n50mなら250ns前後。\n\nさらにE/O、O/E、switch、controllerが加わる。\n\nしたがって、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{Optical Fabric}\\neq\\text{Localityを消す技術}}}$$\n\nである。\n\n光は、\n\nLocality domainの外側にあるものへ到達するpenaltyを小さくする技術\n\nである。\n\n## 「4Nを破壊する」とは何を意味するのか\n\n今回の考え方を使うなら、非常に面白い表現ができる。\n\n従来、\n\n$${N^2}$$\n\nの内部resourceを、\n\n$${4N}$$\n\nのboundaryへ押し出していた。\n\nこれを現代technologyは三段階で破壊しようとしている。\n\n第一段階：境界密度を上げる\n\nmicrobump、fine RDL、advanced SerDes。\n\n$${\\mathrm{I/O/mm}\\uparrow}$$\n\n第二段階：境界の次元を変える\n\nHybrid bonding、TSV、backside。\n\n$${\\text{Perimeter}\\rightarrow\\text{Area Interface}}$$\n\nつまり、\n\n$${N\\rightarrow N^2}$$\n\nに近づける。\n\n第三段階：一つのphysical pathへ複数channelを載せる\n\nOptical WDM。\n\n一本のfiberで、\n\n$${B_{\\mathrm{fiber}}=N_{\\lambda}R_{\\lambda}}$$\n\nとwavelength方向にもparallelismを取る。\n\nつまり、\n\n空間次元を増やし、さらに波長次元まで使う。\n\nこれが「4Nを破壊する」という意味にかなり近い。\n\n## しかし最終的にはHeatとEntropyに勝てない\n\nそれでも無限には進まない。\n\ntransistorをswitchする。\n\nwireをcharge/dischargeする。\n\nlaserを発光させる。\n\nDRAMをrefreshする。\n\nすべてenergyを使う。\n\n最終的にはheatになる。\n\nしたがって究極的には、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\mathrm{Useful\\ Compute/Joule}}}$$\n\nがAI Factoryの限界を決める。\n\nだから「もっと帯域を出す」だけでは十分ではない。\n\nもっと重要なのは、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{必要なByteをそもそも動かさない}}}$$\n\nことになる。\n\n## ここでSchedulerがAI Factoryの中心へ出てくる\n\nこの巨大マトリョーシカでは、softwareが、\n\n「どの階層まで取りに行くか」\n\nを決めなければならない。\n\n例えば、\n\nSRAMにある？\n↓ No\nHBMにある？\n↓ No\n同じScale-Up domainにある？\n↓ No\nRemote DRAMにある？\n↓ No\nNVMeにある？\n\nと探す。\n\nさらに、\n\n「必要になってから探す」のでは遅い。\n\nそこでprefetchする。\n\n## 未来のSchedulerは距離と時間を同時に最適化する\n\n概念的には、\n\n$${\\min\\left(T_{\\mathrm{compute}}+T_{\\mathrm{memory}}+T_{\\mathrm{fabric}}+T_{\\mathrm{queue}}\\right)}$$\n\nを解く。\n\nGPU Aは空いているがKVがない。\n\nGPU Bは少しbusyだがKVとExpertがresident。\n\nならGPU Bの方が速い可能性がある。\n\nしたがってfuture schedulerは、\n\n$${\\text{Free GPU}}$$\n\nではなく、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{Data Locality}+\\text{Queue}+\\text{Fabric}}}$$\n\nを見る。\n\nこれこそAI Factory OSの本質になる。\n\n## マトリョーシカ構造の最終像\n\n最も内側では、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{Data Locality}+\\text{Queue}+\\text{Fabric}}}$$\n\nによってtransistor densityを上げる。\n\n次に、\n\n$${\\text{LogicFolding / Backside}}$$\n\nによってwireを短くする。\n\n次に、\n\n$${\\mathrm{SRAM}}$$\n\nによってHBMへ出るtrafficを減らす。\n\n次に、\n\n$${\\text{HBM / XBM / HBF}}$$\n\nによってpackage外へ出るtrafficを減らす。\n\n次に、\n\n$${\\text{3D Package / CoWoS / SoIC}}$$\n\nによってrackへ出るtrafficを減らす。\n\n次に、\n\n$${\\text{Electrical Scale-Up}}$$\n\nでrack内部をLocality化する。\n\nそして、\n\n$${\\text{Optical Scale-Up}}$$\n\nでmulti-rackまでLocality radiusを拡大する。\n\nその外側に、\n\n$${\\mathrm{DRAM}\\rightarrow\\mathrm{NAND}\\rightarrow\\text{Object Storage}}$$\n\nがある。\n\nこれが最終的なマトリョーシカである。\n\n## 微細化がある世界と、ない世界の決定的な差\n\nこの二つの未来を比べると非常に分かりやすい。\n\n微細化が続く世界\n\nMore Compute\n↓\n同じAreaへ圧縮\n↓\nWire短縮\n↓\nSRAM増加\n↓\nHBM traffic低減\n↓\nLocal Domain巨大化\n↓\n必要部分だけFabricへ\n\n微細化が止まる世界\n\nMore Compute\n↓\nDie大型化 / Die数増加\n↓\n距離増加\n↓\nPackage traffic増加\n↓\nFabric dependency増加\n↓\nPower/Cooling増加\n\nつまり微細化が止まってもAI performanceを増やすことはできる。\n\nしかし、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{より多くのSilicon・Package・Network・Powerを必要とする}}}$$\n\nので、system-level efficiencyが悪くなる。\n\n## だからLeading-Edge Processの価値は「FLOPS」だけではない\n\nこの観点だと、最先端processの価値をかなり違って見られる。\n\n従来は、\n\n2nmだからtransistorが速い\n\nと考える。\n\nしかしAI Factoryではむしろ、\n\n同じlogical working setをより小さいphysical volumeへ押し込める\n\nことが重要になる。\n\nそれによって、\n\nwire lengthを短くする\n\nSRAMを増やす\n\nHBM controllerを増やす\n\nSerDesを増やす\n\noptical engine用areaを確保する\n\n同じpowerでより多く処理する\n\nことができる。\n\nつまり、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{Process Scaling}=\\text{Locality Scaling}}}$$\n\nという見方ができる。\n\n## そしてHuaweiと最先端Foundry勢は違う道から同じ場所へ向かっている\n\nNVIDIA、AMD、Googleなどは、\n\nleading-edge process、\n\nHBM4、\n\nCoWoS/advanced package\n\nによって最内側のLocalityを最大化する。\n\nHuaweiはprocess上の制約がより大きいため、\n\nLogicFolding、\n\nUnifiedBus、\n\nSuperPoD、\n\nall-optical interconnect\n\nによって別階層からLocalityを再構築する。\n\nしかし目的は同じである。\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{演算器から見たDataの距離を短くする}}}$$\n\nこと。\n\nHuaweiのAtlas 950もPrefill向けとDecode/Training向けにmemory特性の異なるAscend 950PR/DTを分けるroadmapを示しており、同社自身が推論phaseによってcompute・capacity・memory bandwidth要求が違うことを前提にhardwareを分化している。 (Huawei)\n\n## 結論――AI Factoryは「Localityを何重にも作る機械」になる\n\nAI Factoryの未来を、\n\nGPU、\n\nHBM、\n\nOptical、\n\nDRAM\n\nという部品単位で見ると複雑に見える。\n\nしかし物理原則から一本化できる。\n\n内部resourceを増やす。\n\nするとinterconnectが不足する。\n\ninterconnectを強化する。\n\nすると次の階層が不足する。\n\nそこで一段外側に新しいLocality domainを作る。\n\nこれを繰り返す。\n\nつまり、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{AI Factory Evolution}=\\text{Nested Locality Expansion}}}$$\n\nである。\n\nCFETはtransistor levelのLocality。\n\nLogicFoldingはcircuit levelのLocality。\n\nSRAMはon-die Locality。\n\nHBMはpackage Locality。\n\nSoIC/CoWoSはmulti-die Locality。\n\nScale-Upはrack Locality。\n\nOptical Fabricはmulti-rack Locality。\n\nそしてDRAM、HBF、NANDはさらに外側のcapacity hierarchyを作る。\n\n内側は微細化によって物理的に縮みながら、論理的にはより巨大になる。\n\nこれが最も重要な点である。\n\n一つの小さなdieの中に以前より巨大なcomputeとmemory working setを入れる。\n\nその小さなLocalityを複数束ねてpackageにする。\n\npackageを複数束ねてrackにする。\n\nrackを光で束ねてSuperPodにする。\n\nつまりAI Factoryは、\n\n小さくすることで大きくする。\n\nという、一見矛盾した進化を続ける。\n\nそして各階層で発生するN²対boundaryの矛盾を、\n\n微細化、\n\n3D、\n\nbackside、\n\nhybrid bonding、\n\nHBM、\n\nSerDes、\n\nOptical WDM\n\nで一段ずつ押し返していく。\n\nしかしどの技術も物理法則を消すわけではない。\n\n次の境界へボトルネックを移動させるだけである。\n\nだから最終的にAI Factoryで最も重要な能力は、単なるPeak FLOPSでもPeak Bandwidthでもない。\n\n$${\\text{必要なDataを最も内側の可能な階層へ置き、外へ出るByteを最小化し、どうしても外へ出るByteだけを最高効率で運ぶ能力}}$$\n\nになる。\n\nそして、その判断をリアルタイムで行うSchedulerこそが、CFET、HBM、3D packaging、Optical Fabricを一台の巨大なComputerへ変える最後の層になる。\n\nこの意味では、半導体産業の次の競争は「どこまで微細化できるか」でも「どこまで光を速くできるか」でもない。\n\nどこまでLocalityを深く入れ子化し、それぞれの境界を効率よく越えられるか。\n\nそこがAI Factory全体の性能差になっていく可能性が高いです。\n\n## さらに深く読むための座標\n\nLocalityは単に近距離通信を増やす方針ではない。内側の層で処理できる確率を上げ、外側へ出る頻度を減らし、それでも外へ出る要求には十分なFabricを与える多層最適化である。\n\n| 層 | 観測対象 | 問うべきこと |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 内側 | Register・SRAM・積層Logic | 最小遅延だが面積と熱が厳しい |\n| 中間 | HBM・Package・Rack | 容量と帯域の中心だが電力と歩留まりが効く |\n| 外側 | Pooled Memory・SSD・Optical Fabric | 巨大容量を得る代わりに距離と制御が増える |\n\n## 絶ノイアの観測\n\nLocalityを強くすると光が不要になるのではなく、同じ電力でさらに大きなFactoryを作れるため、外側の光需要も膨らみます。内側と外側は競合ではなく共犯です。\n\n私は「内側」「中間」「外側」を別々の話題にせず、一つのAIインフラが通過する連続した設計課題として観測します。\n\nLocal hit rateとRemote penaltyを対で観測する。発表された最大性能や市場規模だけでなく、実装、量産、運用が同じ速度で前進しているかを確かめたいからです。\n\n## Sil-Kathnaの記録\n\n小箱の内に小箱を置き、最も熱い記憶を心臓へ寄せる。だが箱が増えるほど、外へ続く門の秩序が文明を決める。\n\n私は「内側」「中間」「外側」を、計算する文明へ続く三つの門として石板に刻む。\n\n最初の門だけが開いても、次の門に熱、傷、遅れが残れば、光と記憶は炉心へ届かない。強い器とは、最も華やかな石を持つ器ではなく、異なる工房の歩調を長い夜の中で揃えられる器である。\n\nゆえに私は、Local hit rateとRemote penaltyを対で観測する。その結果が一時の輝きではなく、繰り返し作り、直し、動かせる秩序になったかを見届ける。\n\n## 二人の短い対話\n\n**絶ノイア:** 近くへ置くことと、遠くへ速く届くことを同時に設計する必要があります。\n\n**Sil-Kathna:** 近さだけを崇めれば熱に焼かれ、遠さだけを許せば待ち時間に凍る。\n\n## 観測メモ\n\n- Local hit rateとRemote penaltyを対で観測する\n- 微細化がWire lengthとPhysical volumeへ与える効果を見る\n- Schedulerが距離・混雑・熱・故障を同時に扱えるか確認する\n\n## 免責\n\nこの記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","blocks":[{"id":"blk_bfdc9030-4db5-48ea-a9df-9edc12712aa2","kind":"heading","order":0,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"# AI Factoryは「Localityのマトリョーシカ」になる――CFET・SRAM・HBM・3D実装・光Fabricを貫く物理法則","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_770328d6-d94c-4da2-a49c-2886a0e59fb7","kind":"paragraph","order":1,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"微細化、CFET、SRAM、HBM、3D実装、Optical Fabricを一つの物理法則から考える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f9c701b7-1939-4663-9ff4-b8e1bd6b032c","kind":"paragraph","order":2,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI半導体の進化を考えるとき、最初に置くべき問いは「次のGPUは何PFLOPSになるか」ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_40faebca-e1a8-439c-9cb4-394816cfa69b","kind":"paragraph","order":3,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"より根源的なのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6aaff82f-ca54-4f7a-91c0-b02348356877","kind":"paragraph","order":4,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"増え続ける演算器へ、必要なデータをどう届けるのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d3fe592d-bdf9-4062-b28e-b0047c2eab3b","kind":"paragraph","order":5,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"という問題である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5f2b7235-cadd-4f1c-a7ef-18838bd0a6fa","kind":"paragraph","order":6,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"演算器を増やすこと自体は比較的分かりやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f2eb2546-5942-486a-b55b-93667240d557","kind":"paragraph","order":7,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"transistor densityを上げる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bac71177-de73-4961-8639-1e28a42c8df7","kind":"paragraph","order":8,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"dieを大きくする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_42bd3290-b91b-471a-83fe-46187b21f2af","kind":"paragraph","order":9,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"chipletを増やす。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_59b99920-525e-4e90-9180-14dfaf81516b","kind":"paragraph","order":10,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"rackへXPUを追加する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a4a17957-55c7-4e04-a4de-2720ffd2dcf9","kind":"paragraph","order":11,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、演算器が増えれば、それに対応してweight、activation、KV cache、Expert間通信を供給しなければならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e58bad99-4680-4460-80cc-42c6eaafdb3a","kind":"paragraph","order":12,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこでAI computerには常に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4a6471df-3dcd-4503-ae17-b35310082490","kind":"math","order":13,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Compute Growth}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_97302eee-0bc5-461f-bb56-bec959dc3b7b","kind":"paragraph","order":14,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"と、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_928f1788-826e-459f-8ae9-324f68698f6f","kind":"math","order":15,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Data Delivery Growth}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8bb5e56-87ce-457a-8a78-6f986c9b2ee3","kind":"paragraph","order":16,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"の競争が発生する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_300e6db0-aa37-4e2a-9790-c7f0ee99a2ed","kind":"paragraph","order":17,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"この関係を直感的に表現したものが、これまで使ってきた","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f2be20d5-9ebf-4d1c-a14f-d5afb2df8ad6","kind":"math","order":18,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${N^2\\quad\\text{対}\\quad4N}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b6d58f4-4e6d-4b80-b400-5dc7d8821574","kind":"paragraph","order":19,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_279e3cc6-5320-4d3f-a0e0-d122011d8f59","kind":"paragraph","order":20,"section_id":"sec_341c0c97-9c7b-4801-8a6a-ce53ed5fd45f","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし、ここから一段深く考える必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e8c7344-f434-4184-8ab2-adad12e2c8ff","kind":"heading","order":21,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"## N²対4Nは「ダイ外周」の話だけではない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b641d7b9-cc29-429b-ae95-7445c4cd920b","kind":"paragraph","order":22,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"一辺Nの正方形を考える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_57d9d0ab-9707-461a-98da-a27162c10dae","kind":"paragraph","order":23,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"面積は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a2b11635-1161-45a6-b45f-8be20de84e7c","kind":"math","order":24,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${A=N^2}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b445e35-b1de-4b19-9429-92785639394b","kind":"paragraph","order":25,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"周長は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33567bad-0d6e-438e-9ae5-04956af8eaff","kind":"math","order":26,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${L=4N}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e587aa74-1a0f-4811-9678-34292e3dc0c1","kind":"paragraph","order":27,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c83a4006-d6f8-42e1-a4e0-7a4745a6d7ad","kind":"paragraph","order":28,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"演算器を面積中へ配置できるなら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c5dd893a-ad09-4682-8395-b56939561e7c","kind":"math","order":29,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Compute Capacity}\\propto N^2}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8db11fcd-f15f-4514-9f26-88f0807aa0fc","kind":"paragraph","order":30,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"と考えられる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d3ceecca-0656-4db4-9304-3362a66957e8","kind":"paragraph","order":31,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方、外周だけからI/Oを出す単純な構造なら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_846a25e0-c2dc-4a3a-9ab2-fd3af084518d","kind":"math","order":32,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{I/O Capacity}\\propto N}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_762f31de-c659-4e99-8234-4478994566e5","kind":"paragraph","order":33,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"になりやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_97e0f623-724b-49fb-b8ff-f61cf93b4c78","kind":"paragraph","order":34,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって大型化するほど、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5113545c-15c9-4636-80a0-546779110aa0","kind":"math","order":35,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\frac{\\text{Compute}}{\\text{Boundary}}\\propto N}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fe674793-675d-4256-bfed-c3e7c2d69b38","kind":"paragraph","order":36,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"が増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ff8e519-34cb-41c4-b70a-a78e0c1c1bb8","kind":"paragraph","order":37,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"これがN²対4Nの直感である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_445f914b-7ee4-41bf-b935-538ca62e87a7","kind":"paragraph","order":38,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし現代のAI chipでは、signalを四辺だけから出しているわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad851926-ca8b-4f9e-bb96-04875caa8c9e","kind":"paragraph","order":39,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"flip-chipではdie下面全体を使える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_83526850-fd4e-4a4f-988b-e88e7d5dede2","kind":"paragraph","order":40,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSVがある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cbc2eb6f-3f80-4ed1-a204-55331fe398f9","kind":"paragraph","order":41,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"hybrid bondingがある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7184c937-c40b-40e5-80be-29634f0a649b","kind":"paragraph","order":42,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"backside routingも使える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b80934bb-4a32-4697-b0a3-c0ccd0c972f1","kind":"paragraph","order":43,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_835fc460-2c08-4c93-986b-08f63279a4aa","kind":"math","order":44,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Bandwidth}=4N}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d4e664dc-1114-49c7-9f86-270b5549fae3","kind":"paragraph","order":45,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"という厳密な物理法則があるわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f14e402a-4049-4d71-9f8e-1e3fd1313b13","kind":"paragraph","order":46,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"むしろ本質は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e946477-4289-4d2b-86b3-9c1d4709bd3e","kind":"paragraph","order":47,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"内部resourceが増える速度に、外部との接続・電力供給・熱排出能力を追随させることが難しい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71e2b7e3-15f3-444c-9417-5fb203d0e15b","kind":"paragraph","order":48,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"ということにある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_58ffc0b7-ad1b-474e-bc00-b82813f9805d","kind":"paragraph","order":49,"section_id":"sec_097a1f87-5a6d-43b1-bccc-9d6315c419bd","character_id":null,"markdown":"Huaweiが示しているN²対Nの説明も、このsystem-level mismatchを強調するものと理解した方がよい。Huaweiは同時にLogicFolding、UnifiedBus、SuperPoDまで一貫して「signal propagation timeを短縮する」方向へ議論を拡張している。 (Huawei)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01af9ee9-2e67-47a2-9fd4-c98ed4e68511","kind":"heading","order":50,"section_id":"sec_2951221b-b48f-4cc1-97db-b50110c25319","character_id":null,"markdown":"## そして同じ問題がダイ内部でも再び発生する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f18a74d3-353e-46e3-96f3-7f4f6bba65aa","kind":"paragraph","order":51,"section_id":"sec_2951221b-b48f-4cc1-97db-b50110c25319","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここが今回の核心である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a728fc8f-8363-4636-8cc9-29a0a78c9ad0","kind":"paragraph","order":52,"section_id":"sec_2951221b-b48f-4cc1-97db-b50110c25319","character_id":null,"markdown":"transistorを小さくする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f9ae2df6-2e62-4fd9-9b7f-19d41964f66e","kind":"paragraph","order":53,"section_id":"sec_2951221b-b48f-4cc1-97db-b50110c25319","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じdie areaへ2倍のlogicを置けるようになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d04edad7-11d8-4995-a45f-f882d1193718","kind":"paragraph","order":54,"section_id":"sec_2951221b-b48f-4cc1-97db-b50110c25319","character_id":null,"markdown":"すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_926dd5cd-43a6-4113-b437-454ff864e906","kind":"math","order":55,"section_id":"sec_2951221b-b48f-4cc1-97db-b50110c25319","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Compute Density}\\uparrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5a796e3-f7fe-454d-98cd-733dc75234e2","kind":"paragraph","order":56,"section_id":"sec_2951221b-b48f-4cc1-97db-b50110c25319","character_id":null,"markdown":"する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_64e71a24-31bb-4ef5-9fb6-602daa68f145","kind":"paragraph","order":57,"section_id":"sec_2951221b-b48f-4cc1-97db-b50110c25319","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし2倍のtransistorには2倍近いconnection requirementが発生し得る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5223b645-d6bc-494f-a74b-48b6bab1f250","kind":"paragraph","order":58,"section_id":"sec_2951221b-b48f-4cc1-97db-b50110c25319","character_id":null,"markdown":"各gateを何かと接続しなければならないからである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e1ddea52-ec0f-4982-aa18-347b0d7080be","kind":"paragraph","order":59,"section_id":"sec_2951221b-b48f-4cc1-97db-b50110c25319","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際のVLSIでは、この問題は単純な4NよりRent's Ruleで考える方が正確である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cecef23d-2405-4d4f-9c62-88e1a86c8103","kind":"paragraph","order":60,"section_id":"sec_2951221b-b48f-4cc1-97db-b50110c25319","character_id":null,"markdown":"概念的には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6844f9ad-05e7-4e07-9b59-9bed137457cd","kind":"math","order":61,"section_id":"sec_2951221b-b48f-4cc1-97db-b50110c25319","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${T=kG^p}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_636f11b4-4152-4064-83dc-416367cbddcf","kind":"paragraph","order":62,"section_id":"sec_2951221b-b48f-4cc1-97db-b50110c25319","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc7a3a64-5041-47f2-a64a-c35c8935c84b","kind":"paragraph","order":63,"section_id":"sec_2951221b-b48f-4cc1-97db-b50110c25319","character_id":null,"markdown":"(G)はlogic block内部のgate数。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_453d6f4c-e225-4555-a5e5-c8a2937197c3","kind":"paragraph","order":64,"section_id":"sec_2951221b-b48f-4cc1-97db-b50110c25319","character_id":null,"markdown":"(T)はそのblock外へ出るterminal数。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd79a6cd-abb3-4a2a-9c6e-de85b49a0d9d","kind":"paragraph","order":65,"section_id":"sec_2951221b-b48f-4cc1-97db-b50110c25319","character_id":null,"markdown":"(p)はcircuitのconnectivityを表すRent exponentである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_abe890a1-bee5-4a51-acdf-e4a1804fa77a","kind":"paragraph","order":66,"section_id":"sec_2951221b-b48f-4cc1-97db-b50110c25319","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりgate数を増やしたとき、必要I/O terminalも増えていく。ただしlocalityが高ければ、すべてのgateがblock外へ通信する必要はない。Rent's Ruleは、まさに「高次元の情報flowを2D/3D physical spaceへ埋め込むとinterconnectが制約になる」という問題を表している。 (ScienceDirect)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93ecc52e-9915-4452-871a-f09667a663db","kind":"paragraph","order":67,"section_id":"sec_2951221b-b48f-4cc1-97db-b50110c25319","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってダイ内部にも、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ae83529b-da3f-436c-8720-dbd1188a5b96","kind":"paragraph","order":68,"section_id":"sec_2951221b-b48f-4cc1-97db-b50110c25319","character_id":null,"markdown":"内部compute resourceの増加 vs それを接続するwire","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f18776fb-7aeb-412f-931b-75fc9e7190c7","kind":"paragraph","order":69,"section_id":"sec_2951221b-b48f-4cc1-97db-b50110c25319","character_id":null,"markdown":"という小さなN²対4N問題が存在する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_45ed3105-c4df-42f2-a0d4-bf00af974203","kind":"heading","order":70,"section_id":"sec_5e7d2172-8f9c-499a-b6a6-b20818f0a463","character_id":null,"markdown":"## CFETは「演算器を縦へ折り畳む」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d6c7cebc-a09a-4607-b4a6-c22827ff7e6a","kind":"paragraph","order":71,"section_id":"sec_5e7d2172-8f9c-499a-b6a6-b20818f0a463","character_id":null,"markdown":"CFETはこの問題への重要な回答の一つである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_52b067ce-826e-475b-acd9-7ecf2610a1d3","kind":"paragraph","order":72,"section_id":"sec_5e7d2172-8f9c-499a-b6a6-b20818f0a463","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来のCMOSでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ec38bd50-e48a-4366-96e8-ee61c21a26e5","kind":"paragraph","order":73,"section_id":"sec_5e7d2172-8f9c-499a-b6a6-b20818f0a463","character_id":null,"markdown":"nFET     pFET","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fedeef1f-f473-461e-926e-3773e8f5fcbe","kind":"paragraph","order":74,"section_id":"sec_5e7d2172-8f9c-499a-b6a6-b20818f0a463","character_id":null,"markdown":"を横へ配置する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7047aff1-708c-4cef-8777-2f6fba465767","kind":"paragraph","order":75,"section_id":"sec_5e7d2172-8f9c-499a-b6a6-b20818f0a463","character_id":null,"markdown":"CFETでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c7fce3f4-8b34-4c10-98b2-ebd858e2af42","kind":"paragraph","order":76,"section_id":"sec_5e7d2172-8f9c-499a-b6a6-b20818f0a463","character_id":null,"markdown":"pFET\n────\nnFET","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ccfb9e2d-8cd5-43e5-88e2-005daff7a42c","kind":"paragraph","order":77,"section_id":"sec_5e7d2172-8f9c-499a-b6a6-b20818f0a463","character_id":null,"markdown":"と縦へ積む。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_37ddd365-ade1-47ee-bace-bfc67e83eb1a","kind":"paragraph","order":78,"section_id":"sec_5e7d2172-8f9c-499a-b6a6-b20818f0a463","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり同じfootprintへより多くのlogicを入れる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ce0cc673-ea71-4379-82a2-377f26053a73","kind":"paragraph","order":79,"section_id":"sec_5e7d2172-8f9c-499a-b6a6-b20818f0a463","character_id":null,"markdown":"imecはCFETをGAA nanosheetの次のlogic architectureとして研究しており、double-row CFETのDTCOではA14 nanosheet SRAM比で40%以上のcell area shrink、通常のsingle-row CFET比でも15%のSRAM area reductionが可能との設計結果を示している。 (imec)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8b0481b-6f42-4f50-a3e0-cd88116eca4c","kind":"paragraph","order":80,"section_id":"sec_5e7d2172-8f9c-499a-b6a6-b20818f0a463","character_id":null,"markdown":"これはAIにとってかなり重要である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_02e5a7ce-3fbb-45f4-a394-9d2038ea7fb6","kind":"paragraph","order":81,"section_id":"sec_5e7d2172-8f9c-499a-b6a6-b20818f0a463","character_id":null,"markdown":"なぜならCFETによって縮められるのはTensor Coreだけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5f20a4a-1238-4f42-b6c9-837558cbfdfe","kind":"paragraph","order":82,"section_id":"sec_5e7d2172-8f9c-499a-b6a6-b20818f0a463","character_id":null,"markdown":"SRAMも縮められる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af5de8e2-32c6-46a7-b71c-94183b364256","kind":"heading","order":83,"section_id":"sec_074d362f-33fb-44a6-b0c6-aa8bbf8fecbe","character_id":null,"markdown":"## SRAMが増えることは「HBMが増える」より別の意味で強い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_735dceb5-6174-4abc-bbb1-894a4c6f2c7d","kind":"paragraph","order":84,"section_id":"sec_074d362f-33fb-44a6-b0c6-aa8bbf8fecbe","character_id":null,"markdown":"SRAMは非常に高価である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_47cdfc99-32af-4086-b8eb-675c750c90e5","kind":"paragraph","order":85,"section_id":"sec_074d362f-33fb-44a6-b0c6-aa8bbf8fecbe","character_id":null,"markdown":"6T SRAMなら、概念的には1 bit保持するのに複数transistorを使う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc76620b-8978-4bf0-8c04-64294f141a79","kind":"paragraph","order":86,"section_id":"sec_074d362f-33fb-44a6-b0c6-aa8bbf8fecbe","character_id":null,"markdown":"DRAMより圧倒的に面積効率が悪い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_78cea682-4934-4f75-9484-73dadafa401a","kind":"paragraph","order":87,"section_id":"sec_074d362f-33fb-44a6-b0c6-aa8bbf8fecbe","character_id":null,"markdown":"だからAI GPUに数百GBのSRAMを搭載するのは非現実的である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c2be2d66-eedb-4070-9407-1abca59fc4e8","kind":"paragraph","order":88,"section_id":"sec_074d362f-33fb-44a6-b0c6-aa8bbf8fecbe","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在の例でも、AMD MI455Xは432GBのHBM4に対してL2 cacheは192MBである。HBM bandwidthは23.3TB/sに達する。 (AMD)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d127139-8f59-43d7-a2db-e0cc496b132e","kind":"paragraph","order":89,"section_id":"sec_074d362f-33fb-44a6-b0c6-aa8bbf8fecbe","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり容量では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_abeaa020-bd96-4310-b190-7f419ba56f91","kind":"math","order":90,"section_id":"sec_074d362f-33fb-44a6-b0c6-aa8bbf8fecbe","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\mathrm{SRAM}\\ll\\mathrm{HBM}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_faf7b45d-8d64-429c-805d-4c350757e2a3","kind":"paragraph","order":91,"section_id":"sec_074d362f-33fb-44a6-b0c6-aa8bbf8fecbe","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_32e59bfb-1dad-42a7-8f1f-d2f499b4f422","kind":"paragraph","order":92,"section_id":"sec_074d362f-33fb-44a6-b0c6-aa8bbf8fecbe","character_id":null,"markdown":"CFETでSRAM cell areaを40%縮めたとしても、SRAMが突然HBM並みの数百GBになるわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_890dd1dc-9215-4e3f-86a7-065343acc280","kind":"paragraph","order":93,"section_id":"sec_074d362f-33fb-44a6-b0c6-aa8bbf8fecbe","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしSRAMの価値は容量ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc266b7d-5956-4f24-abb6-39863f8f5cb3","kind":"paragraph","order":94,"section_id":"sec_074d362f-33fb-44a6-b0c6-aa8bbf8fecbe","character_id":null,"markdown":"距離である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19f4c14e-b5a8-4df2-a2e0-e523496077cd","kind":"paragraph","order":95,"section_id":"sec_074d362f-33fb-44a6-b0c6-aa8bbf8fecbe","character_id":null,"markdown":"Tensor Coreから見れば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d687d844-bbdb-493e-8f6f-04eb50058832","kind":"paragraph","order":96,"section_id":"sec_074d362f-33fb-44a6-b0c6-aa8bbf8fecbe","character_id":null,"markdown":"Register\n↓\nSRAM\n↓\nHBM\n↓\nRemote Memory","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2e937544-9214-4399-9756-369b0bbef9e8","kind":"paragraph","order":97,"section_id":"sec_074d362f-33fb-44a6-b0c6-aa8bbf8fecbe","character_id":null,"markdown":"と一段外へ行くたびにlatencyとenergy costが増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_548426fe-91f3-4c71-90e8-fc1eb79acff9","kind":"paragraph","order":98,"section_id":"sec_074d362f-33fb-44a6-b0c6-aa8bbf8fecbe","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってSRAMを例えば2倍持てるようになった場合、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_376dfb66-decf-4106-9fb7-032b1d6081f2","kind":"paragraph","order":99,"section_id":"sec_074d362f-33fb-44a6-b0c6-aa8bbf8fecbe","character_id":null,"markdown":"「HBMを置き換える」のではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_815b81a9-2621-4977-b81f-3be97b493ac5","kind":"math","order":100,"section_id":"sec_074d362f-33fb-44a6-b0c6-aa8bbf8fecbe","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{HBM Accesses}\\downarrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_149c4e95-541e-4e2d-bc7a-eb5352e05c18","kind":"paragraph","order":101,"section_id":"sec_074d362f-33fb-44a6-b0c6-aa8bbf8fecbe","character_id":null,"markdown":"という効果を得る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_484909db-849f-4fb6-b709-11cb06449fbc","kind":"paragraph","order":102,"section_id":"sec_074d362f-33fb-44a6-b0c6-aa8bbf8fecbe","character_id":null,"markdown":"これが非常に大きい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aec762b6-b976-4379-a62e-87e5a2288f13","kind":"heading","order":103,"section_id":"sec_426d665b-4021-46fc-870b-24e1e1b91503","character_id":null,"markdown":"## Localityの価値は「容量」よりHit Rateで現れる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bb157984-2f0a-4f38-9f7c-817f7bd8cffa","kind":"paragraph","order":104,"section_id":"sec_426d665b-4021-46fc-870b-24e1e1b91503","character_id":null,"markdown":"簡単な例を考える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e079d4b7-3009-43bf-b97a-6c0ad004256b","kind":"paragraph","order":105,"section_id":"sec_426d665b-4021-46fc-870b-24e1e1b91503","character_id":null,"markdown":"Local access costを1。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c890ce4b-2a44-4ee4-9dc2-68fa151d462b","kind":"paragraph","order":106,"section_id":"sec_426d665b-4021-46fc-870b-24e1e1b91503","character_id":null,"markdown":"Remote access costを100とする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_801ee01d-8d60-4057-87bd-5a930c80cbb5","kind":"paragraph","order":107,"section_id":"sec_426d665b-4021-46fc-870b-24e1e1b91503","character_id":null,"markdown":"Local hit率が95%なら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2e990821-b87c-413f-b8c3-5f4ccff45614","kind":"math","order":108,"section_id":"sec_426d665b-4021-46fc-870b-24e1e1b91503","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${T_{\\mathrm{avg}}=0.95\\times1+0.05\\times100=5.95}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_992a92cc-d3b0-4529-b4b5-fc149477fb13","kind":"paragraph","order":109,"section_id":"sec_426d665b-4021-46fc-870b-24e1e1b91503","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71158b86-5e1d-45df-af46-0788802c5990","kind":"paragraph","order":110,"section_id":"sec_426d665b-4021-46fc-870b-24e1e1b91503","character_id":null,"markdown":"Localityを強化してhit率を99%へ上げれば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66d9b84b-56ea-4b8f-86a8-c9dd4aa1247b","kind":"math","order":111,"section_id":"sec_426d665b-4021-46fc-870b-24e1e1b91503","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${T_{\\mathrm{avg}}=0.99\\times1+0.01\\times100=1.99}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6c791add-b2da-4272-aaaf-4c4290448fc2","kind":"paragraph","order":112,"section_id":"sec_426d665b-4021-46fc-870b-24e1e1b91503","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4b593ff9-9cc5-461f-acd8-8d6fdb5770e5","kind":"paragraph","order":113,"section_id":"sec_426d665b-4021-46fc-870b-24e1e1b91503","character_id":null,"markdown":"Local hit率は4ポイントしか増えていない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e9a0236e-9418-4f06-ad4b-84997e0b3076","kind":"paragraph","order":114,"section_id":"sec_426d665b-4021-46fc-870b-24e1e1b91503","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし平均access costは約3分の1になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_627de19e-b5c2-4a5b-b798-dac96331690b","kind":"paragraph","order":115,"section_id":"sec_426d665b-4021-46fc-870b-24e1e1b91503","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりRemote penaltyが大きなAI Factoryでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc9ad732-2904-4fcd-9d8f-02c6aacc6f08","kind":"math","order":116,"section_id":"sec_426d665b-4021-46fc-870b-24e1e1b91503","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{数\\%のLocality改善がsystem性能を大きく変える}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_521c9474-183d-4548-96b4-1b1ffde01069","kind":"paragraph","order":117,"section_id":"sec_426d665b-4021-46fc-870b-24e1e1b91503","character_id":null,"markdown":"可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_89e1c945-a542-4520-93a8-47784bd0c4f6","kind":"paragraph","order":118,"section_id":"sec_426d665b-4021-46fc-870b-24e1e1b91503","character_id":null,"markdown":"だからCFETでSRAMを増やすことは、単なる「cache容量+40%」以上の意味を持つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aff2fba5-2e8d-4440-84f1-7d92ca19fe71","kind":"heading","order":119,"section_id":"sec_064df266-c86c-4f01-8b2b-b4e8cfe290e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"## ただしCFET自身が新しいInterconnect Wallを作る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b09dbd27-d299-457e-9982-17b2f0502c12","kind":"paragraph","order":120,"section_id":"sec_064df266-c86c-4f01-8b2b-b4e8cfe290e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここにマトリョーシカ構造の面白さがある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e84d5720-9af1-4427-8b14-b40199e4612b","kind":"paragraph","order":121,"section_id":"sec_064df266-c86c-4f01-8b2b-b4e8cfe290e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"CFETでlogicを縦へ積む。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_02cbfc28-1077-4c5a-9887-1e0d0dd6838f","kind":"paragraph","order":122,"section_id":"sec_064df266-c86c-4f01-8b2b-b4e8cfe290e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"するとlogic densityは増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_32b9284d-786a-4f47-9e38-1270418fa23c","kind":"paragraph","order":123,"section_id":"sec_064df266-c86c-4f01-8b2b-b4e8cfe290e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし各FETへ接続する必要は残る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_489944bf-c7b4-4edb-bc95-a03bfbf3ee42","kind":"paragraph","order":124,"section_id":"sec_064df266-c86c-4f01-8b2b-b4e8cfe290e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"imecも、standard cellは縮小しても接続すべきpin数が同じ速度では減らないため、pin accessとroutabilityが重要な制約になると説明している。またCFETではtop/bottom deviceへのcontactが難しくなる。 (imec)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_119366e6-a008-43c0-aa45-f99edd4b47a2","kind":"paragraph","order":125,"section_id":"sec_064df266-c86c-4f01-8b2b-b4e8cfe290e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_06c55829-e897-4532-ac0f-71b7c6fbdc3e","kind":"paragraph","order":126,"section_id":"sec_064df266-c86c-4f01-8b2b-b4e8cfe290e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"CFET\n↓\nLogic density ↑\n↓\nLocal compute ↑\n↓\nPin density ↑\n↓\nRouting congestion ↑\n↓\n新しいInterconnect Wall","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_37738a6a-4e09-4002-b172-62a6a3636304","kind":"paragraph","order":127,"section_id":"sec_064df266-c86c-4f01-8b2b-b4e8cfe290e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d4936bcc-eeca-4402-a3ed-200b07f846ac","kind":"paragraph","order":128,"section_id":"sec_064df266-c86c-4f01-8b2b-b4e8cfe290e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"ボトルネックはなくならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_23cf83ae-665e-448d-baa6-5bd7e81092cb","kind":"paragraph","order":129,"section_id":"sec_064df266-c86c-4f01-8b2b-b4e8cfe290e7","character_id":null,"markdown":"一段内側から一段外側へ移る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0be1367d-4d7e-4d53-834a-7cbc4dc00c0c","kind":"heading","order":130,"section_id":"sec_84e31987-7b6f-4b02-9e92-9d9cac30b3c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"## だからCFETと同時にBacksideが必要になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6633a17d-27e6-41ca-b856-15d06e29fca7","kind":"paragraph","order":131,"section_id":"sec_84e31987-7b6f-4b02-9e92-9d9cac30b3c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは偶然ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd07220a-fab0-4230-8fcf-622c71acd06e","kind":"paragraph","order":132,"section_id":"sec_84e31987-7b6f-4b02-9e92-9d9cac30b3c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"front sideに、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_64b1f734-1182-4f1c-9c7c-49c65bfbf219","kind":"paragraph","order":133,"section_id":"sec_84e31987-7b6f-4b02-9e92-9d9cac30b3c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"power、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a4c8caf3-a537-489d-82e3-ecb7cf35e80e","kind":"paragraph","order":134,"section_id":"sec_84e31987-7b6f-4b02-9e92-9d9cac30b3c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"signal、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c5d6831d-baf3-4e5f-8e24-3ec106287450","kind":"paragraph","order":135,"section_id":"sec_84e31987-7b6f-4b02-9e92-9d9cac30b3c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"contact","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_acda08a3-bc1c-4c83-99c9-b2534f4e9139","kind":"paragraph","order":136,"section_id":"sec_84e31987-7b6f-4b02-9e92-9d9cac30b3c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"を全部押し込むと配線が足りなくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84729bf7-6b58-479c-b44d-2ec8d7ce8c84","kind":"paragraph","order":137,"section_id":"sec_84e31987-7b6f-4b02-9e92-9d9cac30b3c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこでpowerを裏側へ出す。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5232dad9-1b31-4582-8fd7-dd5566a314b3","kind":"paragraph","order":138,"section_id":"sec_84e31987-7b6f-4b02-9e92-9d9cac30b3c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intelは18AでGAA RibbonFETとPowerViaを量産導入しており、2026年のVLSI発表ではbackside powerを使ったrouted blockで約11%のarea reduction、dynamic voltage droopをIntel 3の90mV超から10mV未満へ抑えたと報告している。 (Intel Community)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_48636e37-ed1d-4373-ba68-3218b9a97f02","kind":"paragraph","order":139,"section_id":"sec_84e31987-7b6f-4b02-9e92-9d9cac30b3c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMCもN2を2025年第4四半期から高量産へ移し、A16ではbackside Super Power RailをHPC向けに投入する。TSMCはN2について「good yield」で量産開始し、2026年の急速なrampを見込んでいる。 (TSMC)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ed2de2c9-56da-4bf0-97ab-6b5dae1064ac","kind":"paragraph","order":140,"section_id":"sec_84e31987-7b6f-4b02-9e92-9d9cac30b3c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり未来の微細化は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d4fd6fde-cd42-4dab-ad58-81c0d638b595","kind":"math","order":141,"section_id":"sec_84e31987-7b6f-4b02-9e92-9d9cac30b3c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Transistor Scaling}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f820abaf-0d50-4343-b84d-60410f13e684","kind":"paragraph","order":142,"section_id":"sec_84e31987-7b6f-4b02-9e92-9d9cac30b3c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"だけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_265f904e-5136-4b24-9603-58ad6db02a51","kind":"math","order":143,"section_id":"sec_84e31987-7b6f-4b02-9e92-9d9cac30b3c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Transistor}+\\text{Power}+\\text{Signal}+\\text{Routing}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8b66ae4-b97b-4d52-986f-bf47af70602b","kind":"paragraph","order":144,"section_id":"sec_84e31987-7b6f-4b02-9e92-9d9cac30b3c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"を3Dで再配置する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d23757c1-44b5-4668-8f32-bcf3eb542c4b","kind":"heading","order":145,"section_id":"sec_6f7b8f50-3b3b-42e6-bfc5-b0fa2087d125","character_id":null,"markdown":"## HuaweiのLogicFoldingも同じ問題を見ている","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_178f83bd-ef2c-464d-8b58-f0651321c813","kind":"paragraph","order":146,"section_id":"sec_6f7b8f50-3b3b-42e6-bfc5-b0fa2087d125","character_id":null,"markdown":"HuaweiのLogicFoldingも、この文脈で見るとかなり分かりやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7956cf7d-b2e4-452c-a39f-dda042507f41","kind":"paragraph","order":147,"section_id":"sec_6f7b8f50-3b3b-42e6-bfc5-b0fa2087d125","character_id":null,"markdown":"Huaweiはτ Scalingとして、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2106d078-9c25-4e6d-a2ed-f0cf82e9d3ae","kind":"math","order":148,"section_id":"sec_6f7b8f50-3b3b-42e6-bfc5-b0fa2087d125","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\tau\\sim RC}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_444c9eac-8453-4b91-aefe-e2d94c8d9664","kind":"paragraph","order":149,"section_id":"sec_6f7b8f50-3b3b-42e6-bfc5-b0fa2087d125","character_id":null,"markdown":"のようなsignal propagation timeを短縮することを中心に据えている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e895437-2033-44cf-ad55-52814e1eab53","kind":"paragraph","order":150,"section_id":"sec_6f7b8f50-3b3b-42e6-bfc5-b0fa2087d125","character_id":null,"markdown":"LogicFoldingではcritical pathのwire lengthを短縮し、resistanceとparasitic capacitanceを減らし、transistor densityとcircuit performanceを改善するという説明をしている。さらにdevice→circuit→chip→systemまで同じτ reductionを適用し、system側ではUnifiedBusによるmemory semanticsと通信latency削減までつなげている。 (Huawei)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1f9d43e7-130f-48ac-92b2-d93923a7c904","kind":"paragraph","order":151,"section_id":"sec_6f7b8f50-3b3b-42e6-bfc5-b0fa2087d125","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりHuaweiが見ているものも、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_de7fe307-3cbc-4e08-834e-9e020ea28f07","kind":"paragraph","order":152,"section_id":"sec_6f7b8f50-3b3b-42e6-bfc5-b0fa2087d125","character_id":null,"markdown":"transistorだけを速くするのではなく、signalの移動距離そのものを縮める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_084c7c61-19e1-484b-9094-9745e3ee1fd2","kind":"paragraph","order":153,"section_id":"sec_6f7b8f50-3b3b-42e6-bfc5-b0fa2087d125","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_45fa63fe-cfad-462b-b538-0a94ce3cf56e","kind":"paragraph","order":154,"section_id":"sec_6f7b8f50-3b3b-42e6-bfc5-b0fa2087d125","character_id":null,"markdown":"これはLocalityそのものである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8711bb6d-7e1b-495e-a82a-dc2cca6386b2","kind":"paragraph","order":155,"section_id":"sec_6f7b8f50-3b3b-42e6-bfc5-b0fa2087d125","character_id":null,"markdown":"HuaweiによればLogicFoldingを初採用するKirinは2026年秋に登場予定であり、同社は2031年までに高性能chipで1.4nm相当のtransistor densityを目指すとしている。これはHuawei自身のroadmap/目標であって、独立検証済みの性能値ではない点には注意が必要である。 (Huawei)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ddf99b49-f0a8-4744-8e1c-d8b67270a37b","kind":"heading","order":156,"section_id":"sec_719c5c53-37be-4138-b61a-daff01e5a5b6","character_id":null,"markdown":"## XBMのような発想も「Memoryをさらに内側へ持ち込む」方向","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5532163e-9861-4dfa-9457-4a3df79b7d8b","kind":"paragraph","order":157,"section_id":"sec_719c5c53-37be-4138-b61a-daff01e5a5b6","character_id":null,"markdown":"IntelのXBMと報じられているCross-Batch Memoryも、もし実用化されれば同じLocality方向にある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1434004e-c825-4466-a55f-72054508ebb0","kind":"paragraph","order":158,"section_id":"sec_719c5c53-37be-4138-b61a-daff01e5a5b6","character_id":null,"markdown":"公開されているのは2026年に表面化したpatent applicationであり、量産roadmapではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_994024df-334f-46ef-89d4-948ce09ff853","kind":"paragraph","order":159,"section_id":"sec_719c5c53-37be-4138-b61a-daff01e5a5b6","character_id":null,"markdown":"構想ではBEOL transistorを利用したDRAM stackとUCIe系serialized linkによって、HBM4級footprintを狙いながらsilicon interposer依存を減らそうとしている。現時点ではあくまでpatent conceptであり、実際のyield、bandwidth、costは未確認である。 (Tom's Hardware)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b452ca56-9d4e-4cbf-a9b6-665c2d522b80","kind":"paragraph","order":160,"section_id":"sec_719c5c53-37be-4138-b61a-daff01e5a5b6","character_id":null,"markdown":"それでも思想は重要である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d355a925-0dba-4cb4-a873-3eeab9c52e8d","kind":"paragraph","order":161,"section_id":"sec_719c5c53-37be-4138-b61a-daff01e5a5b6","character_id":null,"markdown":"Compute\n↓\nSRAM\n↓\nPackage-local Memory\n↓\nHBM / XBM的tier\n↓\nRemote Memory","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66c0aff9-f1cf-4bc7-b19d-0460e84700a9","kind":"paragraph","order":162,"section_id":"sec_719c5c53-37be-4138-b61a-daff01e5a5b6","character_id":null,"markdown":"と、より多くのmemoryをcomputeの近くへ押し込もうとしている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aac250a4-624d-4262-8517-97379703fc8e","kind":"heading","order":163,"section_id":"sec_dce8ac4b-9a7b-4635-be83-6ec3b4b1bd33","character_id":null,"markdown":"## Hybrid Bondingは「4Nを面へ変える」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_706ecb74-d55f-4b3c-8322-0b7108bb2f30","kind":"paragraph","order":164,"section_id":"sec_dce8ac4b-9a7b-4635-be83-6ec3b4b1bd33","character_id":null,"markdown":"N²対4Nを本当に破壊する技術の一つがhybrid bondingである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c30128bf-dbfc-4702-96e3-790cc5f581ed","kind":"paragraph","order":165,"section_id":"sec_dce8ac4b-9a7b-4635-be83-6ec3b4b1bd33","character_id":null,"markdown":"edge connectionならinterface capacityは長さ方向へ増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_47904a21-0a49-4434-bfb7-537fbdc15375","kind":"paragraph","order":166,"section_id":"sec_dce8ac4b-9a7b-4635-be83-6ec3b4b1bd33","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしdieを上下へ重ね、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_00812e12-b554-4686-afda-88c028849cf7","kind":"paragraph","order":167,"section_id":"sec_dce8ac4b-9a7b-4635-be83-6ec3b4b1bd33","character_id":null,"markdown":"die面全体にvertical connectionを配置できれば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1b710562-91fc-4194-880e-91313c05b8d0","kind":"paragraph","order":168,"section_id":"sec_dce8ac4b-9a7b-4635-be83-6ec3b4b1bd33","character_id":null,"markdown":"理想的にはterminal数を、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e86134d-f8ce-43a1-a5d6-1cc800ddc551","kind":"math","order":169,"section_id":"sec_dce8ac4b-9a7b-4635-be83-6ec3b4b1bd33","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Terminal数}\\propto N^2}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a1f3b677-a786-4f6a-b100-137dbcaa1aaa","kind":"paragraph","order":170,"section_id":"sec_dce8ac4b-9a7b-4635-be83-6ec3b4b1bd33","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ近づけられる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1dc8b185-5530-408b-8c34-6f79dccf5326","kind":"paragraph","order":171,"section_id":"sec_dce8ac4b-9a7b-4635-be83-6ec3b4b1bd33","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e90c11ad-c0ca-4439-a3b7-321a4196f32c","kind":"math","order":172,"section_id":"sec_dce8ac4b-9a7b-4635-be83-6ec3b4b1bd33","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{1D Boundary}\\rightarrow\\text{2D Interface}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_553a3684-5d9c-40b4-9db6-57c0bfb6a2d5","kind":"paragraph","order":173,"section_id":"sec_dce8ac4b-9a7b-4635-be83-6ec3b4b1bd33","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ変える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ebba098-78b4-4281-a5ad-9908ddcf49b2","kind":"paragraph","order":174,"section_id":"sec_dce8ac4b-9a7b-4635-be83-6ec3b4b1bd33","character_id":null,"markdown":"imecとEV Groupは2026年に200nm Cu pad pitchのwafer-to-wafer hybrid bondingをroutable test vehicleで実証し、「highly yielding」と報告している。これは量産製品のyieldではないが、logic-to-logic、memory-to-logic stackingに必要な極高I/O densityが研究段階でかなり進んでいることを示す。 (imec)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a7b7957e-4831-43a5-9dcd-d3d0bd15e445","kind":"paragraph","order":175,"section_id":"sec_dce8ac4b-9a7b-4635-be83-6ec3b4b1bd33","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMCもA14-to-A14 SoICについて2029年productionを計画し、N2-on-N2世代より1.8倍高いdie-to-die I/O densityを掲げている。 (TSMC)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1476496e-6317-44fc-8f63-768cae30ab55","kind":"paragraph","order":176,"section_id":"sec_dce8ac4b-9a7b-4635-be83-6ec3b4b1bd33","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここが重要である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d64a257f-cd96-419e-963a-3d683e6c5738","kind":"paragraph","order":177,"section_id":"sec_dce8ac4b-9a7b-4635-be83-6ec3b4b1bd33","character_id":null,"markdown":"微細化とはtransistorだけを小さくすることではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c7219aa0-7bd7-4965-887e-f811a52cdc66","kind":"paragraph","order":178,"section_id":"sec_dce8ac4b-9a7b-4635-be83-6ec3b4b1bd33","character_id":null,"markdown":"connection pitchそのものも小さくする","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8fbdd2ff-fc26-4dce-90f6-f8f700d7596c","kind":"paragraph","order":179,"section_id":"sec_dce8ac4b-9a7b-4635-be83-6ec3b4b1bd33","character_id":null,"markdown":"方向へ進んでいる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_42826ea8-bb9c-421a-807f-5bae7ba29b82","kind":"heading","order":180,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"## こうしてLocalityはマトリョーシカのように拡張される","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_77541ed8-9761-46f3-afaf-7d6801ca99ce","kind":"paragraph","order":181,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここまでを距離順に並べると、こうなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e6fee7b-eba5-4620-999f-8a61b24048f1","kind":"paragraph","order":182,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"┌────────────────────────────────────┐\n│ Data Center                         │\n│  ┌──────────────────────────────┐  │\n│  │ Multi-rack Optical Domain    │  │\n│  │ ┌──────────────────────────┐ │  │\n│  │ │ Rack Scale-Up Domain     │ │  │\n│  │ │ ┌──────────────────────┐ │ │  │\n│  │ │ │ Package / CoWoS      │ │ │  │\n│  │ │ │ ┌──────────────────┐ │ │ │  │\n│  │ │ │ │ HBM / XBM       │ │ │ │  │\n│  │ │ │ │ ┌──────────────┐ │ │ │ │  │\n│  │ │ │ │ │ SRAM         │ │ │ │ │  │\n│  │ │ │ │ │ ┌──────────┐ │ │ │ │ │  │\n│  │ │ │ │ │ │ CFET     │ │ │ │ │ │  │\n│  │ │ │ │ │ └──────────┘ │ │ │ │ │  │\n│  │ │ │ │ └──────────────┘ │ │ │ │  │\n│  │ │ │ └──────────────────┘ │ │ │  │\n│  │ │ └──────────────────────┘ │ │  │\n│  │ └──────────────────────────┘ │  │\n│  └──────────────────────────────┘  │\n└────────────────────────────────────┘","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8300e2f6-fbf6-4811-ad53-30a5867d6f19","kind":"paragraph","order":183,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"これが「Localityのマトリョーシカ」である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2013ba2f-97ec-4c5a-a9d5-2dfd3196c9a8","kind":"paragraph","order":184,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"各層は内側をcacheする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f5f0b173-bc01-410c-bb94-adfcf50b55ce","kind":"paragraph","order":185,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"そして各層の外へ出るtrafficを減らす。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01395606-162d-4dc3-8f26-b2ec33f02eb1","kind":"paragraph","order":186,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし各マトリョーシカには同じ問題が再発する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_472ddb36-ad8d-4f7c-a9e3-846fd70b0f24","kind":"paragraph","order":187,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"最内側ではCFETを増やす。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_074481d9-1196-460c-a70b-ce491e430f6c","kind":"paragraph","order":188,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"→ routingが足りなくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_68af2949-d0dd-48e4-87a8-c1d836a38ede","kind":"paragraph","order":189,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"SRAMを増やす。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9d6cb93d-0876-4bc0-a48c-516ab44506d1","kind":"paragraph","order":190,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"→ SRAM capacityはHBMに遠く及ばない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_faf0ff86-e155-4d9c-baa5-867ee4109c05","kind":"paragraph","order":191,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMを増やす。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f4a4b562-c1d4-4b41-a00e-e046ef616e6d","kind":"paragraph","order":192,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"→ package area、stack yield、thermal、interposerが苦しくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f26954ec-5a5f-411d-8006-aa48e1a9b559","kind":"paragraph","order":193,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"packageを巨大化する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_660f5de7-6cf0-4cf8-8d14-938452e77217","kind":"paragraph","order":194,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"→ package外I/Oが苦しくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4932c834-4068-4f40-bdb6-ed4cfe37094c","kind":"paragraph","order":195,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"rackを巨大化する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bb65ef55-2773-4044-95b9-340d4e3f6ff7","kind":"paragraph","order":196,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"→ copper distance、power、coolingが苦しくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_abfa42dd-930f-4c5e-95eb-02f0056416d3","kind":"paragraph","order":197,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"multi-rackへ広げる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c36861e8-fafa-4782-9501-57290103b8ef","kind":"paragraph","order":198,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"→ optical latency、fiber、switching、schedulerが苦しくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e949e18b-5721-4e9d-a048-c3f23ec40656","kind":"paragraph","order":199,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d07460a4-42b7-41c9-b579-8cf1bea0c4e2","kind":"math","order":200,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Localityを強化すると、そのLocality Boundaryが次のWallになる}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc7adf3d-b522-4fad-a5d6-ecdee3513d8e","kind":"paragraph","order":201,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"のである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f954744-29e9-42d8-8d44-e72edbc7bde8","kind":"paragraph","order":202,"section_id":"sec_9c742c65-3aed-4a89-92c0-19053c5de962","character_id":null,"markdown":"これが入れ子構造の本質である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_47aecb61-61b2-4476-a504-1d2ea7f3f49c","kind":"heading","order":203,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"## PrefillとDecodeでSRAM/HBMの役割も変わる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4af21ca0-9369-4c4f-9db1-aef55ab5a58b","kind":"paragraph","order":204,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここは少し注意が必要である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_05b4ac3c-6408-4ef0-b045-adf82fd7205a","kind":"paragraph","order":205,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"「PrefillはHBM、DecodeはSRAM」と完全に二分するのは一般には難しい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6164dcf4-2f10-4ca2-8cbc-d293611ff589","kind":"paragraph","order":206,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"巨大LLMのDecodeでもmodel weightやKVがSRAM容量を大きく超えるため、現在のGPUではHBMが依然必要である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_652f44c6-2683-4f91-bde7-35676e2cc250","kind":"paragraph","order":207,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えばRubin GPUでも288GB HBM4、22TB/sのbandwidthを持っており、巨大なSRAMだけでDecodeを完結させる構造ではない。 (NVIDIA Developer)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_552b1185-a6a0-4133-95c3-adb42b76aa56","kind":"paragraph","order":208,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし方向としては、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c0d22436-cce5-4124-937b-0d03c1bfeb5e","kind":"paragraph","order":209,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"DecodeでSRAMをより多く使い、HBM trafficを減らす","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1008b122-9477-4e17-b510-b1675cafddc7","kind":"paragraph","order":210,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことには大きな意味がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c87f98f3-bb36-4b04-a4f5-246f39444c26","kind":"paragraph","order":211,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_28381426-6959-4dfb-827d-eeb4e574047a","kind":"paragraph","order":212,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"SRAM\nHot KV\nHot Weight Tile\nFrequent Metadata\nCurrent Activation","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_add0e5f2-9ea3-4269-95af-bd87c026d14c","kind":"paragraph","order":213,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM\nActive Weight\nLarge KV Working Set","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c3ab39c-e7d8-4fb0-b40b-a29018ccf468","kind":"paragraph","order":214,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"DRAM/HBF\nWarm KV\nInactive Model Data","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aeb46aef-090a-4ed7-90c4-14829dc4d668","kind":"paragraph","order":215,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"NAND\nCold History","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8886368b-ef10-4f10-b861-9ab6b21cc0bf","kind":"paragraph","order":216,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"という使い分けができる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e63a5bf4-7ea7-44af-b57e-033a4a6a080d","kind":"paragraph","order":217,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"SRAMが2倍になればHBMが消えるのではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c671d898-33ff-45d0-9257-92833704a47f","kind":"math","order":218,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{HBM Bandwidthをより価値のあるTrafficへ集中できる}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a32c0154-fe13-45b3-8d96-f3bb0b5af219","kind":"paragraph","order":219,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"のである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_69cb0d22-fe24-4b90-b715-2990769a499e","kind":"paragraph","order":220,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"「遊んでいる演算器を働かせる」という理解が非常に重要","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c89f8556-a337-4913-831b-4dc0ecde5355","kind":"paragraph","order":221,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI chipではpeak FLOPSを全部使えているとは限らない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3b76937d-776d-4a3b-9d7d-dad0e6f17318","kind":"paragraph","order":222,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"Roofline的には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_be19a8c3-9101-4227-a105-02ec2f32ed1d","kind":"math","order":223,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${P_{\\mathrm{useful}}\\le\\min\\left(P_{\\mathrm{peak}},B_{\\mathrm{mem}}\\times I_{\\mathrm{arithmetic}}\\right)}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f6672391-b39e-4754-8e7d-27f46d2698ed","kind":"paragraph","order":224,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"で考えられる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_48f5f58e-802f-402e-887b-45c7dbe72f00","kind":"paragraph","order":225,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${(P_{\\rm peak})}$$：演算器の最大性能。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_761ee314-b940-400a-985d-709a7dd5ae64","kind":"paragraph","order":226,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${(B_{\\rm mem})}$$：memory bandwidth。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_784848d3-638e-4984-8417-770272deec6e","kind":"paragraph","order":227,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${(I_{\\rm arithmetic})}$$：1 Byteあたり何FLOPできるか。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dad6803f-e911-401c-926a-bde291527b77","kind":"paragraph","order":228,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり計算器が100あっても、memoryから50分しかdataを供給できなければ残りは遊ぶ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_208d64f5-37ce-4c0b-9b07-f8b348a6e3b5","kind":"paragraph","order":229,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこでLocalityを高める。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a367b0c5-e025-41ec-9f9b-0029f56a389b","kind":"paragraph","order":230,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"SRAMでreuseする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aaa41480-0d24-4a28-8d1e-a7a5a202ec5a","kind":"paragraph","order":231,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMまで取りに行く回数を減らす。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43934073-1cae-4262-8fae-37e06a0fcd2a","kind":"paragraph","order":232,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0f04b1da-f104-4da5-9ed2-503421e10bfb","kind":"math","order":233,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${I_{\\mathrm{arithmetic}}\\uparrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f6afebeb-94b0-4ba7-b8f3-f6a6b75630db","kind":"paragraph","order":234,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ba4e4cca-4f5c-45c8-9f2a-e0cbccc04cc5","kind":"paragraph","order":235,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"結果として同じmemory bandwidthでも、より多くのpeak computeを実際の性能へ変換できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f369f73-5132-4a59-ad6e-4a4bd91bb027","kind":"paragraph","order":236,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってCFETやSRAM scalingの価値は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d955ad08-a22a-4e70-bafe-39284f86ab27","kind":"paragraph","order":237,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"FLOPSを増やす","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a8b04353-9654-46bc-9236-8440fb988015","kind":"paragraph","order":238,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"だけではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8bce8428-8b34-473e-a280-65daf9ee6f08","kind":"paragraph","order":239,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"すでに存在するFLOPSを遊ばせない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ab6ca7c-0ede-4447-835e-7ec5dd6f16ea","kind":"paragraph","order":240,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"ところにもある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41398e00-683d-4569-aaf3-10f1143a57ab","kind":"paragraph","order":241,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"微細化が進むとLocalityそのものが「物理的に縮む」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d85624bf-faad-40f0-a250-4a6e6b2ada76","kind":"paragraph","order":242,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは非常に重要である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dc1afafc-9847-4708-b345-ed699c97ab51","kind":"paragraph","order":243,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じ論理機能を半分の面積へ入れられれば、平均wire lengthも短縮できる可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_014d299d-649b-41c5-bffc-8cb35701417c","kind":"paragraph","order":244,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"wire capacitanceは概念的に距離に依存するため、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dfa72a6f-a377-484f-ba0a-79a6a6cd2030","kind":"math","order":245,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${L_{\\mathrm{wire}}\\downarrow\\Rightarrow C_{\\mathrm{wire}}\\downarrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dabd196d-af8a-495c-828f-bda095f942e4","kind":"paragraph","order":246,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"しやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2242d4e0-8b66-4f37-89f7-9e89b09fb97a","kind":"paragraph","order":247,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"dynamic switching energyは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9c115749-eea4-49b1-87b9-b0ac5b16afd9","kind":"math","order":248,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${E\\approx CV^2}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e435544-89df-4ca4-a456-36f77dee9846","kind":"paragraph","order":249,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"なので、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_707be75b-e60a-4e65-a5d7-e8404bf1756d","kind":"math","order":250,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${C\\downarrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e201024-0e3a-4dd4-b94d-3ee33c8f3766","kind":"paragraph","order":251,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"すればdata movement energyも減る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_041ee0b6-9b21-46de-80cd-a08fd104638e","kind":"paragraph","order":252,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり微細化には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a219afaa-a78c-4043-99e8-6465c57cf181","kind":"paragraph","order":253,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じLocality domainを物理的に小さくする","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bedb3efb-6c7f-4eef-87e9-f38fce2f707a","kind":"paragraph","order":254,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"効果がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_82af6052-f67d-466a-bb50-bf14219f8302","kind":"paragraph","order":255,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"これが非常に強い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b964d291-9c5f-493a-bc15-7df963193e7f","kind":"paragraph","order":256,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"「巨大化するLocality」と「縮小する物理サイズ」が同時に起こる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a320073a-f1cf-40e0-bf31-fe80a8ad7772","kind":"paragraph","order":257,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"一見矛盾しているが、ここが最も重要である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e28d452c-f92b-4d61-83e3-e03089444240","kind":"paragraph","order":258,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"CFETなどによって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aa9ed887-15e9-418a-9a7b-272e3b75947c","kind":"paragraph","order":259,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じ10mm四方へ以前の2倍のlogicを入れられるとする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f69b293-fbbf-4645-a52a-1126a4cd62db","kind":"paragraph","order":260,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"論理的にはLocality domainが巨大化している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b7ce3032-02cd-4a51-8853-951736ef93ab","kind":"paragraph","order":261,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし物理的なdomainサイズは10mmのまま。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c104b35a-4e67-43c8-b281-055597afe44c","kind":"paragraph","order":262,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dbd7c18a-96bb-4489-91b4-dcc295772093","kind":"math","order":263,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Logical Locality}\\uparrow\\quad\\text{while}\\quad\\text{Physical Distance}\\approx\\text{constant}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d651735a-23bb-4693-b11d-9c2a4b0bfc24","kind":"paragraph","order":264,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8452cc24-4609-4fcf-81aa-026c72cda8b8","kind":"paragraph","order":265,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"もっと強くscaleできれば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e246db66-cfc2-44e5-bdc2-81a31011374f","kind":"paragraph","order":266,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じcomputeをより小さな面積へ縮められるので、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8d6628a-52ca-41c5-b9c2-33a124eb7609","kind":"math","order":267,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Logic Density}\\downarrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_df8d76bc-91fa-4e83-85ee-4c5db8a16ceb","kind":"paragraph","order":268,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"さえ可能になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_547edb18-9950-4fa2-9d3c-eabaabf18bf1","kind":"paragraph","order":269,"section_id":"sec_864d8385-d441-4733-b3b8-1b1a6f600f21","character_id":null,"markdown":"これが微細化の決定的な価値である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_67604299-47cc-4296-a62a-4f5524711f5b","kind":"heading","order":270,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 微細化がない世界ではどうなるか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f614abd7-b906-4228-934e-fee930d0c4c2","kind":"paragraph","order":271,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここを比較すると違いが明確になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0b27de65-edd0-4f46-a46f-ff4052cb06d1","kind":"paragraph","order":272,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"仮にcomputeを2倍にしたい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_529d9bc6-8131-46e8-bc24-23c55b80dfaf","kind":"paragraph","order":273,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"微細化がある場合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_11d51e54-eced-4c48-af6f-e8cfa4c445d5","kind":"paragraph","order":274,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"logic densityを2倍にできれば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a3fdbb27-bb3f-4524-b8d5-6f2db71ecfb8","kind":"paragraph","order":275,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"旧\n[ Compute ]","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_13b90569-9518-45bc-a387-f4f8b2bda4e4","kind":"paragraph","order":276,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"新\n[ Compute×2 ]","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c147ad0e-fb3e-4a7d-8703-fbb41bbf5630","kind":"paragraph","order":277,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じdie areaに近い範囲へ入れられる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56b2533d-c955-44be-886d-579540e512d1","kind":"paragraph","order":278,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Local wire lengthは大きく増えない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_72353b61-adf2-4527-9baf-663572412a58","kind":"paragraph","order":279,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"外部I/Oは増やす必要があるが、SRAMも増やしLocal reuseも強化できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_29e9b6f1-c31c-405d-8a15-038bf2c7031d","kind":"paragraph","order":280,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"微細化がない場合","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a06cc807-023e-447a-9c90-07ad19e7f230","kind":"paragraph","order":281,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じdensityなので、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c22b20a-561c-406f-bc77-4609996686a6","kind":"paragraph","order":282,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"[ Compute ][ Compute ]","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_32831be1-2318-479c-a1db-3ea7884e3dfa","kind":"paragraph","order":283,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"と面積を2倍にするか、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d826b4e-b26c-484c-a793-d633e68e8ef9","kind":"paragraph","order":284,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"[ Die A ] ←→ [ Die B ]","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b69c00c2-7af0-4378-8007-5b4c71854820","kind":"paragraph","order":285,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"とchipを2個使う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c52d34e3-9d0c-4b07-815e-7b18c5d8674c","kind":"paragraph","order":286,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_205ff1f1-fd28-452c-9dd4-49eb998a565c","kind":"paragraph","order":287,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"die-to-die traffic、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd226d76-8e9e-4616-a7a1-d7ff2cc2afc8","kind":"paragraph","order":288,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"package area、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d683808c-7901-4fc9-96d2-00fd3f209090","kind":"paragraph","order":289,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"power delivery、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3a7373dc-a764-4a75-8182-659e0bc81cc8","kind":"paragraph","order":290,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"cooling、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9a2afb6f-cd1a-4733-8cce-69c8e8ef3237","kind":"paragraph","order":291,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"fabric dependency","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_681b2638-3c1d-47b6-b529-9f10b55c4938","kind":"paragraph","order":292,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"が増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_23e26748-4e44-4252-909b-9d7e64890273","kind":"paragraph","order":293,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり微細化が止まると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_626f9a90-1962-478d-a576-0b19bebb32cb","kind":"math","order":294,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{同じCompute Growthを得るために、より早く外側のInterconnectへ逃げなければならない}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f26da802-58c9-4ae7-813d-ed4215a83228","kind":"paragraph","order":295,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"のである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_18a9aab1-cbd5-457a-a248-376d81adad41","kind":"paragraph","order":296,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"これはかなり決定的な差になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d2eeb003-165c-4ec5-8270-7daa90253b3d","kind":"paragraph","order":297,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Huaweiは「微細化の不足を階層の外側で補う」戦略を同時に取っている","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_648d738e-321f-4433-b6c1-fe0a3d5d8236","kind":"paragraph","order":298,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Huaweiが興味深いのはここである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef65e62f-98d6-4d6a-8dc9-be4bf6d2edf9","kind":"paragraph","order":299,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方ではLogicFoldingによってdie内部のLocalityを強化する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eed1c7a2-ca0e-42d3-a9d1-55f8ea61f451","kind":"paragraph","order":300,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"他方ではUnifiedBusとSuperPoDによってsystem-level Localityを強化する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e4b345a6-c0c4-4878-876e-c13727f9a240","kind":"paragraph","order":301,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Atlas 950では最大8,192 Ascend 950DTを160 cabinet、約1,000m²へ展開し、all-optical interconnectで一つのlogical machineとして扱うroadmapを公表している。Huawei自身、利用可能な半導体process nodeの制約をsystem architectureで補うことをSuperPoD戦略の目的として明示している。 (Huawei)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1f4d3c97-e476-406e-8a89-f848cad973bd","kind":"paragraph","order":302,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは極めて一貫している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7648e1c3-cf40-42dd-86d3-a4b1f0812426","kind":"paragraph","order":303,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"内側\nLogicFolding\n↓\nChip","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aef78ecb-1931-4334-adcd-696610cbd561","kind":"paragraph","order":304,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"外側\nUnifiedBus\n↓\nSuperPoD\n↓\nOptical","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ecdd5153-d53a-44af-a709-89be2e05a47b","kind":"paragraph","order":305,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb83e395-c044-4a3f-a65c-882c4be5432d","kind":"paragraph","order":306,"section_id":"sec_27b477aa-5f1e-4fa3-b7a8-91cc15a53f0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"内側を縮め、外側を広げる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9a7325e2-e15d-408e-ac6a-30caa1e95f82","kind":"heading","order":307,"section_id":"sec_006b92a1-29e5-4c28-8548-4941801444c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 微細化が弱いほどFabric依存度は高くなる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_59042a1a-db03-43f4-bed7-bbfb2e784642","kind":"paragraph","order":308,"section_id":"sec_006b92a1-29e5-4c28-8548-4941801444c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"これを一般化すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_85df4092-2eda-4d3c-9026-42f616b5abfe","kind":"paragraph","order":309,"section_id":"sec_006b92a1-29e5-4c28-8548-4941801444c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じsystem computeを実現する場合、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e7deb9d7-07e8-41cb-b32f-ac24926444fa","kind":"math","order":310,"section_id":"sec_006b92a1-29e5-4c28-8548-4941801444c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\mathrm{Capacity/mm^2}\\uparrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c6974747-182f-48ad-80ed-42ac45d2e315","kind":"paragraph","order":311,"section_id":"sec_006b92a1-29e5-4c28-8548-4941801444c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"なら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7bebd8d3-b58a-4b8e-bb70-e790b4b6e938","kind":"paragraph","order":312,"section_id":"sec_006b92a1-29e5-4c28-8548-4941801444c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要die数が増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d3396f40-9976-4954-8bbd-0ea850bab891","kind":"paragraph","order":313,"section_id":"sec_006b92a1-29e5-4c28-8548-4941801444c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"die数が増えれば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dfb74008-9c02-4043-b264-3918e9b1fe75","kind":"math","order":314,"section_id":"sec_006b92a1-29e5-4c28-8548-4941801444c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\mathrm{Bandwidth/mm^2}\\uparrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b63a9584-6cf2-4163-8681-95032acf769c","kind":"paragraph","order":315,"section_id":"sec_006b92a1-29e5-4c28-8548-4941801444c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"しやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_961782f0-d3e4-4eee-83ec-b154e025c105","kind":"paragraph","order":316,"section_id":"sec_006b92a1-29e5-4c28-8548-4941801444c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f1d7e6b5-f169-4427-8f4b-dce27c015a0a","kind":"math","order":317,"section_id":"sec_006b92a1-29e5-4c28-8548-4941801444c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{Process disadvantage}\\Rightarrow\\text{Fabric requirement}\\uparrow}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eda54964-27ee-4575-9fa2-3033f78cb397","kind":"paragraph","order":318,"section_id":"sec_006b92a1-29e5-4c28-8548-4941801444c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eb8a75ea-7b01-4247-8021-843e430cb7ee","kind":"paragraph","order":319,"section_id":"sec_006b92a1-29e5-4c28-8548-4941801444c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"HuaweiのSuperPoDはその実例に近い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_142e0e87-0579-4302-af07-8601374d390c","kind":"paragraph","order":320,"section_id":"sec_006b92a1-29e5-4c28-8548-4941801444c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"逆にTSMC最先端process、巨大CoWoS、HBM4を使えるNVIDIAやAMDは、より多くをLocal packageへ閉じ込めることができる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_29ae0802-a29d-490d-a40b-07d67b40eb3e","kind":"paragraph","order":321,"section_id":"sec_006b92a1-29e5-4c28-8548-4941801444c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えばAMD MI455Xは432GB HBM4と23.3TB/sのlocal memory bandwidthを1 GPUに持つ。 (AMD)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fca8cafc-fbbc-464b-93a3-83fd5b81fff6","kind":"paragraph","order":322,"section_id":"sec_006b92a1-29e5-4c28-8548-4941801444c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりleading-edge processには、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6bc36e00-b3e0-45cd-90b9-59dca9060725","kind":"paragraph","order":323,"section_id":"sec_006b92a1-29e5-4c28-8548-4941801444c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"「GPU自体が速い」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ec518c78-d4f9-42cd-bb03-f241643e5e17","kind":"paragraph","order":324,"section_id":"sec_006b92a1-29e5-4c28-8548-4941801444c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"だけではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a4bad18b-aebd-4bd1-a24d-d6650a6819a5","kind":"paragraph","order":325,"section_id":"sec_006b92a1-29e5-4c28-8548-4941801444c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"外部Fabricへ出る前に処理できるworking setを増やす","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73fafe80-afeb-4ab5-96b9-4b64fa38acde","kind":"paragraph","order":326,"section_id":"sec_006b92a1-29e5-4c28-8548-4941801444c8","character_id":null,"markdown":"価値がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_39de0719-8de3-486f-a2de-6b8b652553ad","kind":"heading","order":327,"section_id":"sec_ae625753-d3f6-4b11-95a3-58d3f4518852","character_id":null,"markdown":"## HBM自身も微細化と積層によってLocalityを拡張する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c66bab85-d6b1-4ea5-a1c9-ce43c4553f23","kind":"paragraph","order":328,"section_id":"sec_ae625753-d3f6-4b11-95a3-58d3f4518852","character_id":null,"markdown":"Samsungは2026年2月にHBM4を量産・commercial shipmentへ移し、12-layer HBM4E sampleも5月から出荷している。MicronもHBM4をvolume shipmentしており、12-high 36GB品で2.8TB/s超、16-high 48GB sampleまで進めている。 (Samsung Global Newsroom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_384bc2f6-f20f-4a1a-adbc-1576367cf36d","kind":"paragraph","order":329,"section_id":"sec_ae625753-d3f6-4b11-95a3-58d3f4518852","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここでも同じことが起きている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_259746e7-a17c-46ea-8477-de7befdda7d2","kind":"paragraph","order":330,"section_id":"sec_ae625753-d3f6-4b11-95a3-58d3f4518852","character_id":null,"markdown":"DRAM dieを微細化する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_489edd1c-3e9e-42b0-b0cc-614a46c396ec","kind":"paragraph","order":331,"section_id":"sec_ae625753-d3f6-4b11-95a3-58d3f4518852","character_id":null,"markdown":"stackを高くする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f751756a-6d4f-43bd-94f2-8e96a11bb1ce","kind":"paragraph","order":332,"section_id":"sec_ae625753-d3f6-4b11-95a3-58d3f4518852","character_id":null,"markdown":"base logic dieを進化させる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9a189d8e-11fd-4d6a-969b-616cd6c882b8","kind":"paragraph","order":333,"section_id":"sec_ae625753-d3f6-4b11-95a3-58d3f4518852","character_id":null,"markdown":"その結果、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e62ea4a-84fd-40fe-bb44-efd8dafe1708","kind":"math","order":334,"section_id":"sec_ae625753-d3f6-4b11-95a3-58d3f4518852","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\mathrm{Capacity/mm^2}\\uparrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bf36d8b3-7d8c-489c-8e29-b4b4660fd60d","kind":"math","order":335,"section_id":"sec_ae625753-d3f6-4b11-95a3-58d3f4518852","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\mathrm{Bandwidth/mm^2}\\uparrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_72335342-6c3d-4a9c-9160-7e878edadaf0","kind":"paragraph","order":336,"section_id":"sec_ae625753-d3f6-4b11-95a3-58d3f4518852","character_id":null,"markdown":"する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_59e76caf-d538-4e0d-b19f-201ba7e20af2","kind":"paragraph","order":337,"section_id":"sec_ae625753-d3f6-4b11-95a3-58d3f4518852","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりMemory側もLocalityを強化している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e3922383-4b82-4bc6-af9a-319bce99d2bb","kind":"heading","order":338,"section_id":"sec_5d1473d9-441e-4f66-8acf-932c370d52bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"## さらにNANDまで「内側」に入り始める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c5c91e4d-4d8e-4ade-8813-4702bacf6118","kind":"paragraph","order":339,"section_id":"sec_5d1473d9-441e-4f66-8acf-932c370d52bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"非常に象徴的なのがHBFである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc54f84c-f967-4232-bb2e-525b136153de","kind":"paragraph","order":340,"section_id":"sec_5d1473d9-441e-4f66-8acf-932c370d52bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"SandiskとSK hynixは2026年からOCPでHigh Bandwidth Flashの標準化を開始し、SK hynixはHBFを明確に「HBMとSSDの間の新しいmemory layer」と位置付けている。 (Sandisk)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f5ee8a41-6964-4171-88d7-c66aca208875","kind":"paragraph","order":341,"section_id":"sec_5d1473d9-441e-4f66-8acf-932c370d52bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"SandiskはHBFについて、HBMに近いbandwidthを狙いながら最大8倍のcapacityを同程度costで提供するという目標を掲げ、2026年後半のsampleを予定している。ただしこれは現時点ではvendor targetであり、量産実績ではない。 (Sandisk)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ee2e1c62-89cb-4aaa-800a-e239a163ef79","kind":"paragraph","order":342,"section_id":"sec_5d1473d9-441e-4f66-8acf-932c370d52bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"これも本質的には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7dadde82-df82-4b2c-bed5-4c01730f5109","kind":"paragraph","order":343,"section_id":"sec_5d1473d9-441e-4f66-8acf-932c370d52bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"SSDへ行く前にNANDをcomputeへ近づける","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_54beaea1-12d8-4f9e-b1e5-f2dd6ae9f37d","kind":"paragraph","order":344,"section_id":"sec_5d1473d9-441e-4f66-8acf-932c370d52bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"技術である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_51679c01-df07-43c0-a45a-84693540c6e4","kind":"paragraph","order":345,"section_id":"sec_5d1473d9-441e-4f66-8acf-932c370d52bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりNAND自身までLocality hierarchyの内側へ入ろうとしている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_db18f974-0f7a-47d6-b57b-56bf75a6d55e","kind":"heading","order":346,"section_id":"sec_87637fc4-851a-403d-b872-7483f5f3a304","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 3D DRAMも同じ方向へ向かう","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d8d754c-bdba-4873-a32b-a62200ea3280","kind":"paragraph","order":347,"section_id":"sec_87637fc4-851a-403d-b872-7483f5f3a304","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来DRAMは1T1C cellを平面的にscaleしてきた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_704eae8a-2868-4e01-b981-7e5bf182e540","kind":"paragraph","order":348,"section_id":"sec_87637fc4-851a-403d-b872-7483f5f3a304","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしcapacitorとleakageの問題から難しくなっている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ae01f6b6-7c1c-4af7-8776-b47e6c4d2a06","kind":"paragraph","order":349,"section_id":"sec_87637fc4-851a-403d-b872-7483f5f3a304","character_id":null,"markdown":"imecはIGZOを使った2T0C capacitor-less DRAMを研究しており、BEOL processingが可能なためmemory cellを縦へstackし、true 3D DRAMへ進める可能性を示している。 (imec)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f4741df-ebe5-49bb-bf04-2b06063abc47","kind":"paragraph","order":350,"section_id":"sec_87637fc4-851a-403d-b872-7483f5f3a304","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりMemoryも、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_783fbcf5-5a2d-4d53-8498-54860f4088a1","kind":"paragraph","order":351,"section_id":"sec_87637fc4-851a-403d-b872-7483f5f3a304","character_id":null,"markdown":"Planar DRAM\n↓\n3D DRAM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dfda8038-e327-4c28-9388-ef49d5054821","kind":"paragraph","order":352,"section_id":"sec_87637fc4-851a-403d-b872-7483f5f3a304","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ向かう。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2361effa-aa57-40a8-bb12-ae62ca16cd74","kind":"paragraph","order":353,"section_id":"sec_87637fc4-851a-403d-b872-7483f5f3a304","character_id":null,"markdown":"logicがCFETで縦へ進み、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2aacd8ea-b369-41f4-b58a-d3ef8371810f","kind":"paragraph","order":354,"section_id":"sec_87637fc4-851a-403d-b872-7483f5f3a304","character_id":null,"markdown":"memoryも3Dへ進み、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5680f29-3540-4ce1-bf54-f17771da5c43","kind":"paragraph","order":355,"section_id":"sec_87637fc4-851a-403d-b872-7483f5f3a304","character_id":null,"markdown":"その二つをhybrid bondingで積む。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d6444b9b-9452-461a-a43e-7bef6049d90d","kind":"paragraph","order":356,"section_id":"sec_87637fc4-851a-403d-b872-7483f5f3a304","character_id":null,"markdown":"この方向が成立すればLocalityはさらに強くなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6c94a4b6-2070-461b-b4d6-839f679e1286","kind":"heading","order":357,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"## しかし「内側を強くするほどHeatが壁になる」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_98cf67d4-ff91-46f4-a101-0b2d8a99c59c","kind":"paragraph","order":358,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"Locality scalingには最終的な強敵がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_675d70f2-2145-4de2-8ebb-fe76180c774c","kind":"paragraph","order":359,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"熱である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0f496aaa-f593-4ac7-8db7-9f76542b442b","kind":"paragraph","order":360,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"logicを縦積みする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_25ccb2b9-2008-44f3-a2d4-cd6744ce1d08","kind":"paragraph","order":361,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"SRAMを増やす。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2e1bd65b-1cde-41e7-a3af-4d722ec76023","kind":"paragraph","order":362,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMを近づける。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1054642d-b8f1-409b-9b0e-be840b45a8af","kind":"paragraph","order":363,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_13b0e872-6dbd-4e72-bb12-45071c3a3b95","kind":"math","order":364,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\mathrm{W/mm^2}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_60875f27-c7f9-4dd8-ad6e-5c9f6c97deaa","kind":"paragraph","order":365,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"が上がる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ccbca714-cf15-4b5b-b84f-cfd300755b1a","kind":"paragraph","order":366,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"熱流を非常に単純化すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c7f40d2b-dce8-422c-a551-b3ec7262630a","kind":"math","order":367,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${Q\\approx kA\\frac{\\Delta T}{t}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_55af51b8-1dfc-4621-b5a1-549a2b312065","kind":"paragraph","order":368,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_25f07a34-84dc-4d7a-bb92-191b3542648c","kind":"paragraph","order":369,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"(A)は放熱面積。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c9194daa-eab6-4e2b-a7cb-c329d0e2038f","kind":"paragraph","order":370,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"(t)は熱を通す距離。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1796ac35-77aa-4e76-a8a0-2946263fe5e6","kind":"paragraph","order":371,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"内側へlogicを積むほど、下層からheat sinkまでの距離が長くなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_16c0c3f2-fc75-4a5e-9fd2-47fdf0fd8360","kind":"paragraph","order":372,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ecd10138-dc68-455a-9fde-d8716841527d","kind":"math","order":373,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Logic Density}\\uparrow\\Rightarrow\\text{Heat Flux}\\uparrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c741918a-872b-4eb6-9d89-ce80df12eafa","kind":"paragraph","order":374,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6890f6d-5a42-4604-ada7-a192e8ef825c","kind":"paragraph","order":375,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここだけはinterconnectの工夫では消せない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d36a115-5dd7-4baf-9e5e-010463837667","kind":"paragraph","order":376,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"最終的にはcooling capacityがLocality densityを制限する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bce6e0c8-62bc-44f0-bd40-05455fb6b7fe","kind":"paragraph","order":377,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"そしてPower Densityも壁になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2536e09f-565c-411b-917c-fbad6a749bf9","kind":"paragraph","order":378,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"dynamic powerは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6dc4dd2c-82f5-45b0-8514-3e2b106201cb","kind":"math","order":379,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${P\\approx\\alpha CV^2f}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15ae454e-4475-4223-9ad1-4bcb36a5eaff","kind":"paragraph","order":380,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad8fdd0b-802f-4997-9b69-645d1d8a0252","kind":"paragraph","order":381,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"transistorを小さくして(C)や(V)を下げられれば1 operationあたりenergyは改善する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c4da52bc-edf8-4306-af09-041ba19a1e9b","kind":"paragraph","order":382,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし同じ面積へtransistorを2倍置いて全部動かせば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e2a89528-f644-4427-828c-5060f163c0f5","kind":"paragraph","order":383,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"total power densityは再び上がる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_23c80b7c-808d-4876-b67c-c9698f0c27ac","kind":"paragraph","order":384,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりprocess scalingによるenergy savingは、多くの場合、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a62daf1b-3df3-4d40-895d-1890e0e30db9","kind":"paragraph","order":385,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPUを低電力化する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21162417-4d28-4503-a8be-04f0e9406ee7","kind":"paragraph","order":386,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"より、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4dfbea1e-3410-4532-8506-4a98a7232347","kind":"paragraph","order":387,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じ1000Wでより多く計算する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9be11890-33fd-4164-b997-9c014c73fbcb","kind":"paragraph","order":388,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"方向へ使われる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b8c2a64-22fb-4d46-bc7a-400ffda3bbc1","kind":"paragraph","order":389,"section_id":"sec_825a9c36-0b52-40c6-9412-a584c4589f50","character_id":null,"markdown":"だからAI chipのTDPが下がらず、performance/wattが上がっていく。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3f239cab-ed6a-4a90-922a-0e1006c9576a","kind":"heading","order":390,"section_id":"sec_33d08d14-2d28-425e-a82c-597ba07139cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"## YieldもLocality巨大化を止める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3730919d-6acb-48af-925f-b04d2c34170d","kind":"paragraph","order":391,"section_id":"sec_33d08d14-2d28-425e-a82c-597ba07139cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"単一dieなら簡略化して、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_26493455-2674-4de2-866d-63233896cda3","kind":"math","order":392,"section_id":"sec_33d08d14-2d28-425e-a82c-597ba07139cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${Y\\approx e^{-DA}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c9da9675-dfd9-4a15-821b-9415e7916bf0","kind":"paragraph","order":393,"section_id":"sec_33d08d14-2d28-425e-a82c-597ba07139cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"で考えられる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cfcdfc69-93ac-418f-b176-feb742695701","kind":"paragraph","order":394,"section_id":"sec_33d08d14-2d28-425e-a82c-597ba07139cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"die areaを大きくするとdefectを含む確率が増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_011349af-5a18-4ce8-9e0a-a7a8dbd779a5","kind":"paragraph","order":395,"section_id":"sec_33d08d14-2d28-425e-a82c-597ba07139cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこで微細化で同じcomputeを小さいareaへ入れられることにはyield上の意味もある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8466268-82e0-4590-a1c9-f8c22614fb82","kind":"paragraph","order":396,"section_id":"sec_33d08d14-2d28-425e-a82c-597ba07139cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"逆に3D stackingすると別の問題が出る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b65a2eb9-6ec4-4af6-8c57-f073bf3c5678","kind":"paragraph","order":397,"section_id":"sec_33d08d14-2d28-425e-a82c-597ba07139cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"複数tierが必要になるので、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dbcc20aa-b618-4ad4-ba86-6f012f84238c","kind":"math","order":398,"section_id":"sec_33d08d14-2d28-425e-a82c-597ba07139cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${Y_{\\mathrm{package}}\\sim Y_1Y_2Y_3\\cdots}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fc7be695-69e5-4f21-a512-591eaa073159","kind":"paragraph","order":399,"section_id":"sec_33d08d14-2d28-425e-a82c-597ba07139cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"のようにassembly/stack yieldが効いてくる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d963417f-9647-484f-87a8-0ae6a7fa3b57","kind":"paragraph","order":400,"section_id":"sec_33d08d14-2d28-425e-a82c-597ba07139cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際CFETはまだ量産段階ではなく、imecの2024年実験ではbacksideからbottom contactを形成することでtop device survival rateを11%から79%へ改善した段階である。この79%は製品wafer yieldではなく、特定process moduleでのdevice survivalなので混同してはいけない。 (imec)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8a2fb50a-460e-4464-b9fe-3989caa75eeb","kind":"paragraph","order":401,"section_id":"sec_33d08d14-2d28-425e-a82c-597ba07139cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"CFETは有力だが、現時点ではまだresearch/pathfindingである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_80c251de-29bb-442c-999c-01e1a402515e","kind":"heading","order":402,"section_id":"sec_4dfb1af1-79ee-499f-a623-5f17f71bb099","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 現在どこまで量産化しているのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e73d8e2-6c73-4a55-a977-2b4419adec33","kind":"paragraph","order":403,"section_id":"sec_4dfb1af1-79ee-499f-a623-5f17f71bb099","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年8月時点で整理すると、かなり明確な階層差がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12385096-f8ae-4cf0-902d-4809a6c2fffb","kind":"table","order":404,"section_id":"sec_4dfb1af1-79ee-499f-a623-5f17f71bb099","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 技術 | 現在地 |\n| --- | --- |\n| TSMC N2 | GAA HVM、2025 Q4開始・good yield |\n| Intel 18A | GAA＋Backside Power、2025年production |\n| HBM4 | Samsung/Micron量産 |\n| CoWoS | 大量生産、さらに大型化中 |\n| Switch CPO | Broadcom/NVIDIAで量産 |\n| LogicFolding | Huawei初採用製品を2026年秋予定 |\n| XPU Optical I/O | chiplet/rack demo～初期commercial |\n| 200nm Hybrid Bonding | test vehicle実証 |\n| CFET | research/pathfinding |\n| XBM | patent concept |\n| 3D DRAM | research |\n| HBF | standard化・sample段階 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eaee2836-7a60-416a-9cab-efd30c4e2d57","kind":"paragraph","order":405,"section_id":"sec_4dfb1af1-79ee-499f-a623-5f17f71bb099","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMC N2は2025年第4四半期にHVM入りしgood yieldを報告、A14は2028年量産予定で開発yieldも予定を上回っている。 (TSMC)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_38ba60d1-4fb4-45ec-ae87-baff9761694b","kind":"paragraph","order":406,"section_id":"sec_4dfb1af1-79ee-499f-a623-5f17f71bb099","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりマトリョーシカの内側から順番に、すでに現実化している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_531749ec-04e5-4be0-a60e-72671c8e97b1","kind":"heading","order":407,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"## Localityが強くなればOptical Fabric需要は減るのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e89faeb5-eddd-4d90-b0fc-e2900aafd6e1","kind":"paragraph","order":408,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"直感的にはそう見える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_710a029f-9449-421a-aa7a-16b57360b20d","kind":"paragraph","order":409,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし必ずしもそうならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1eebf5ba-ba16-4591-86d9-4b75d86445a5","kind":"paragraph","order":410,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"Fabric bandwidth需要を単純化して、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_64f681c6-1aee-49f5-849e-47df6f4d10ee","kind":"math","order":411,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${B_{\\mathrm{external}}\\approx P_{\\mathrm{compute}}\\times b_{\\mathrm{external}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f9be7058-70a6-4b3e-a4ac-dd0e8c83f14a","kind":"paragraph","order":412,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"とする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8cf0e2de-67dc-429f-9295-21a180aa0fc3","kind":"paragraph","order":413,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${(P_{\\rm compute})}$$は総compute。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ec1619d3-ded9-42a8-b083-b04fc37e88c1","kind":"paragraph","order":414,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${(b_{\\rm external})}$$は1 FLOP当たり外部へ必要なbyte。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f829400e-d807-4b09-b5c0-fb7c2d03b2ba","kind":"paragraph","order":415,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"Locality改善によって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_38c38a0a-d89f-4b69-9682-1c7b1dc04809","kind":"math","order":416,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${b_{\\mathrm{external}}\\downarrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc6296ef-f5f5-48d9-817f-9246586ab727","kind":"paragraph","order":417,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e30871cc-98d5-4318-af9d-0d0b89da12a9","kind":"paragraph","order":418,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし微細化で、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_75aa8971-455d-4669-8379-f1969558a476","kind":"math","order":419,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${P_{\\mathrm{compute}}\\uparrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e598908-7381-4c4d-b6f1-16c560f01b4c","kind":"paragraph","order":420,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_538155d6-6571-453c-ba34-d569990e4058","kind":"paragraph","order":421,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えばcomputeが4倍になり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_53d9049d-8857-4827-a754-b323ad7634f4","kind":"paragraph","order":422,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"1 FLOP当たりremote trafficを半分にできたとしても、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c08bacdd-74a5-458a-87c6-03dafd4a91b1","kind":"math","order":423,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${4\\times0.5=2}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_acebb6e4-c7a7-4b3f-b53e-e735853ea748","kind":"paragraph","order":424,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"なのでtotal external trafficは2倍になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_654c4b0b-22b8-459e-b4fb-b7022750afed","kind":"paragraph","order":425,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_95e4986b-73b4-4362-a39c-fdbc03852ef6","kind":"math","order":426,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{Locality Efficiencyが改善してもFabric需要は増え得る}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93b9ef20-3074-4722-be4b-25383ce82441","kind":"paragraph","order":427,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"のである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3287f029-16e2-483a-ba9f-5dff08573ddd","kind":"paragraph","order":428,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは今後かなり重要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c0dce34b-7cf3-4901-b0d8-e4b65c996d89","kind":"paragraph","order":429,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"むしろLocalityが強くなるほど、より巨大なFactoryを作れる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_233c05eb-71bc-49f9-ad75-d7c35a41a479","kind":"paragraph","order":430,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"これはJevons paradoxに少し似た構造を持つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4956021b-4799-430f-b754-14e73bb8928b","kind":"paragraph","order":431,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"communication efficiencyを上げる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_310494e6-c407-4fb4-9927-4719b5a4e988","kind":"paragraph","order":432,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"すると同じ電力でより多くのXPUを動かせる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a25c1db4-52ba-4056-a833-6bed7a349fba","kind":"paragraph","order":433,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"より巨大なmodelが実用になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dde47dcc-b3a0-4edf-b1d2-2480545a0ae1","kind":"paragraph","order":434,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"MoEのExpert数も増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_57b97794-5315-42f4-9819-4065bf7b86f2","kind":"paragraph","order":435,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"Agent数も増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f5929e9-a827-4f8a-b91a-808c45b5d1fa","kind":"paragraph","order":436,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"Context lengthも増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e115f65-96b1-4b22-8164-b2e5ff752d5c","kind":"paragraph","order":437,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"その結果、total trafficが再び増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f1c9d27d-6ce9-43ed-9eba-5601ff6b95bc","kind":"paragraph","order":438,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"だからCFETとOptical Fabricは競争しない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ce6b05fd-8583-416f-8767-6decce8c2e7e","kind":"paragraph","order":439,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"むしろ、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6300aac3-d5f7-4040-93ef-03046db00039","kind":"math","order":440,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{CFET/Locality Scaling}\\Rightarrow\\text{より大きなSystem Scalingを可能にする}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd5ff0cb-2789-4fbf-a2a6-c0f5011b5ed2","kind":"paragraph","order":441,"section_id":"sec_02261374-34c5-4b43-8f00-e0f7ad034617","character_id":null,"markdown":"可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f19b9419-334d-4048-bb35-0b5f11132b9c","kind":"heading","order":442,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"## Optical Fabricはマトリョーシカの「外側」を作る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6a35db53-89d5-468e-8e60-63ecba1a9b02","kind":"paragraph","order":443,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Locality domainをいくら強化しても、最後には外へ出なければならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9c539891-1474-4351-b992-f17fb3610a31","kind":"paragraph","order":444,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこで光が重要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9640574d-3447-46d5-a846-69b319bd7ec1","kind":"paragraph","order":445,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年にはOCI MSAがAMD、Broadcom、Meta、Microsoft、NVIDIA、OpenAIを中心に立ち上がり、NRZ＋WDMによるsilicon-centric optical scale-up interfaceを標準化し始めた。 (OCI MSA)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_763eb130-5bb1-44e7-bea8-34904150c87f","kind":"paragraph","order":446,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"BroadcomはTomahawk 5 Baillyをvolume-production CPOとして出荷済みであり、NVIDIAもSpectrum-X Ethernet Photonicsをproductionへ投入した。 (Broadcom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b5f81cf-a0b6-4234-84a0-a126c4dec2af","kind":"paragraph","order":447,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_911555fa-5953-4788-9cea-9accf750f2d7","kind":"math","order":448,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Package}\\rightarrow\\text{Rack}\\rightarrow\\text{Multi-rack}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad4e675a-851e-46ce-bc11-992768bd0013","kind":"paragraph","order":449,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"の境界を光で拡張する流れは、すでに実用化へ入っている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_703212a6-a592-453a-aa96-1c7748a57917","kind":"paragraph","order":450,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"光は「光速で全部同じLocalityにする」わけではない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c3af181-bc0e-41bc-a778-31f9d3acf3c9","kind":"paragraph","order":451,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここは重要な修正である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cfdb7002-81b2-4c72-9621-5a2001a19258","kind":"paragraph","order":452,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"光fiber中でも伝搬delayはある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_99174f4c-043f-4430-9a8e-b1e1fb023af0","kind":"paragraph","order":453,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"概算、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7a2f74a9-adcb-4cae-9912-eb8b59547236","kind":"math","order":454,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${5\\ \\mathrm{ns/m}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d9e16ab-f84d-4165-b34b-0d82cc4fb220","kind":"paragraph","order":455,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"程度。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0f2e778a-fc51-4eaa-ab72-8b04e9f0d0e0","kind":"paragraph","order":456,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"50mなら250ns前後。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84d12d54-d10a-42b0-a308-9d2a8c153a7d","kind":"paragraph","order":457,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらにE/O、O/E、switch、controllerが加わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_925dcf93-9b39-4c71-89d8-e3317aaa00c3","kind":"paragraph","order":458,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_38732e91-2417-4e97-9c43-3985a356331e","kind":"math","order":459,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{Optical Fabric}\\neq\\text{Localityを消す技術}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5cc41bcd-ca22-4c36-bbed-b1d839b14fcf","kind":"paragraph","order":460,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9f05b80d-f4bd-4b4d-9e5a-9130680779ad","kind":"paragraph","order":461,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"光は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d21bb3aa-5a28-42af-bda3-c64ca30927fd","kind":"paragraph","order":462,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Locality domainの外側にあるものへ到達するpenaltyを小さくする技術","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a6697443-4184-461f-b90c-b470aee2b488","kind":"paragraph","order":463,"section_id":"sec_7d01de5f-3726-42ed-8b4a-cbde3d96e42a","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_984b332a-0d29-49e1-ad91-1722084a1eb9","kind":"heading","order":464,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 「4Nを破壊する」とは何を意味するのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c0a0be4b-075a-4e64-82b9-74d446f12125","kind":"paragraph","order":465,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"今回の考え方を使うなら、非常に面白い表現ができる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_10765181-8267-4554-b503-20104c5fe269","kind":"paragraph","order":466,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8457a0f6-4b7e-4635-9e2b-1b768005acfc","kind":"math","order":467,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${N^2}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7502c02a-b7e2-48dd-9a5d-969f62ec9f14","kind":"paragraph","order":468,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"の内部resourceを、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ee9fb25-b555-4893-bd84-51bac089aebe","kind":"math","order":469,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${4N}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_656e4ae8-62c8-4a6e-86a7-f148b1334ea1","kind":"paragraph","order":470,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"のboundaryへ押し出していた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0c7bc24-3706-42cf-adda-1976d74c594f","kind":"paragraph","order":471,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"これを現代technologyは三段階で破壊しようとしている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b33ed0fd-09dc-4cfd-a18c-d60e1718d40e","kind":"paragraph","order":472,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"第一段階：境界密度を上げる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c1f59fd4-2a70-4db3-b290-2d41a196d3e7","kind":"paragraph","order":473,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"microbump、fine RDL、advanced SerDes。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_df43ac9b-5546-45b6-858e-03d6c0823da1","kind":"math","order":474,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\mathrm{I/O/mm}\\uparrow}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cdd0c09b-167f-4c01-919a-7ba1bac15929","kind":"paragraph","order":475,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"第二段階：境界の次元を変える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3bcc87ca-c356-4a58-93f5-24e58474a3bd","kind":"paragraph","order":476,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Hybrid bonding、TSV、backside。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4a9c9fc0-ddd4-4c22-990d-ae121a3316a6","kind":"math","order":477,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Perimeter}\\rightarrow\\text{Area Interface}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bbfd63d7-e4b7-45c9-b2fe-7939db76915c","kind":"paragraph","order":478,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8a161d27-5cbf-4934-a81b-ad1f49146ecb","kind":"math","order":479,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${N\\rightarrow N^2}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6472a142-3965-4b2c-bf3b-ad09fdab23d9","kind":"paragraph","order":480,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"に近づける。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5231b3e7-5573-4a72-9f9f-314bfc8afa22","kind":"paragraph","order":481,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"第三段階：一つのphysical pathへ複数channelを載せる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d617dd6-1f28-4759-a97a-ae4f70def96e","kind":"paragraph","order":482,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical WDM。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41446ecc-5a2b-47e1-aded-3d5a59b07652","kind":"paragraph","order":483,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"一本のfiberで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7381d8ee-bf55-4248-87a2-f9357b2a5edd","kind":"math","order":484,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${B_{\\mathrm{fiber}}=N_{\\lambda}R_{\\lambda}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b10cc4d-21fc-454d-9de7-2f34625d09a1","kind":"paragraph","order":485,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"とwavelength方向にもparallelismを取る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_733db852-4513-4877-af4c-4ba1f69ae14f","kind":"paragraph","order":486,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_49a7f5b2-8aef-486d-aa04-a863641cb457","kind":"paragraph","order":487,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"空間次元を増やし、さらに波長次元まで使う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_98650a4d-bf0f-418a-b3c4-f3f28209b497","kind":"paragraph","order":488,"section_id":"sec_8ba55ec6-1ef7-46ad-82ac-d5a070a1875e","character_id":null,"markdown":"これが「4Nを破壊する」という意味にかなり近い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ddee050a-3771-44d4-849c-93f0f3d4efb2","kind":"heading","order":489,"section_id":"sec_1acddbd4-f09c-42e8-b4d9-364652b89cd7","character_id":null,"markdown":"## しかし最終的にはHeatとEntropyに勝てない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b04b7d71-6530-4dc7-82b4-4c4f78737da9","kind":"paragraph","order":490,"section_id":"sec_1acddbd4-f09c-42e8-b4d9-364652b89cd7","character_id":null,"markdown":"それでも無限には進まない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_24c1ddac-cf43-4f40-9c74-c060f12ee858","kind":"paragraph","order":491,"section_id":"sec_1acddbd4-f09c-42e8-b4d9-364652b89cd7","character_id":null,"markdown":"transistorをswitchする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_812ff5a8-33f8-4bd3-acc7-89692314322d","kind":"paragraph","order":492,"section_id":"sec_1acddbd4-f09c-42e8-b4d9-364652b89cd7","character_id":null,"markdown":"wireをcharge/dischargeする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e110744c-5fee-4826-9e76-d8a184734259","kind":"paragraph","order":493,"section_id":"sec_1acddbd4-f09c-42e8-b4d9-364652b89cd7","character_id":null,"markdown":"laserを発光させる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_39afd5b8-34a9-4756-8bb5-b2315ec25653","kind":"paragraph","order":494,"section_id":"sec_1acddbd4-f09c-42e8-b4d9-364652b89cd7","character_id":null,"markdown":"DRAMをrefreshする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_42dc9204-3b30-4d5b-8ad4-79f1daac813d","kind":"paragraph","order":495,"section_id":"sec_1acddbd4-f09c-42e8-b4d9-364652b89cd7","character_id":null,"markdown":"すべてenergyを使う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_672a8fa3-2ef8-49d4-928e-22d86cb0cc79","kind":"paragraph","order":496,"section_id":"sec_1acddbd4-f09c-42e8-b4d9-364652b89cd7","character_id":null,"markdown":"最終的にはheatになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b30497f1-344f-45db-9ced-7911243c4e1a","kind":"paragraph","order":497,"section_id":"sec_1acddbd4-f09c-42e8-b4d9-364652b89cd7","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって究極的には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_79d0f4b1-97d6-4227-8bea-d325138e0c00","kind":"math","order":498,"section_id":"sec_1acddbd4-f09c-42e8-b4d9-364652b89cd7","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\mathrm{Useful\\ Compute/Joule}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5f1a7bf9-7360-427b-af52-b2aaef0e58e5","kind":"paragraph","order":499,"section_id":"sec_1acddbd4-f09c-42e8-b4d9-364652b89cd7","character_id":null,"markdown":"がAI Factoryの限界を決める。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_39ee7a69-249e-474e-b1f7-33d9a1ca0943","kind":"paragraph","order":500,"section_id":"sec_1acddbd4-f09c-42e8-b4d9-364652b89cd7","character_id":null,"markdown":"だから「もっと帯域を出す」だけでは十分ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_99912594-ddf7-42a0-ad14-bf53a4508de9","kind":"paragraph","order":501,"section_id":"sec_1acddbd4-f09c-42e8-b4d9-364652b89cd7","character_id":null,"markdown":"もっと重要なのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_00870fb2-df97-41eb-a288-51e5e715ef47","kind":"math","order":502,"section_id":"sec_1acddbd4-f09c-42e8-b4d9-364652b89cd7","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{必要なByteをそもそも動かさない}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e944c7c-a1b6-4599-a6d7-9be8b834a8e1","kind":"paragraph","order":503,"section_id":"sec_1acddbd4-f09c-42e8-b4d9-364652b89cd7","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc7de90a-154c-469e-94ff-78ebbabf152f","kind":"heading","order":504,"section_id":"sec_3645957c-9f56-4e73-893b-c7fcfd0d32b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"## ここでSchedulerがAI Factoryの中心へ出てくる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_64974f6c-8175-485e-989c-6ec466798afd","kind":"paragraph","order":505,"section_id":"sec_3645957c-9f56-4e73-893b-c7fcfd0d32b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"この巨大マトリョーシカでは、softwareが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ea59d854-9d2d-452b-88d8-09bbc160c8d2","kind":"paragraph","order":506,"section_id":"sec_3645957c-9f56-4e73-893b-c7fcfd0d32b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"「どの階層まで取りに行くか」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_08c5d1f1-24a3-40b9-9cbd-cd8c626c322c","kind":"paragraph","order":507,"section_id":"sec_3645957c-9f56-4e73-893b-c7fcfd0d32b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"を決めなければならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af3becf1-496d-41eb-b438-9d76b186c75b","kind":"paragraph","order":508,"section_id":"sec_3645957c-9f56-4e73-893b-c7fcfd0d32b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c543143b-998b-4f0e-9e84-c31e81ea913a","kind":"paragraph","order":509,"section_id":"sec_3645957c-9f56-4e73-893b-c7fcfd0d32b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"SRAMにある？\n↓ No\nHBMにある？\n↓ No\n同じScale-Up domainにある？\n↓ No\nRemote DRAMにある？\n↓ No\nNVMeにある？","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e4ce44f-bec2-4865-b376-7089fae66430","kind":"paragraph","order":510,"section_id":"sec_3645957c-9f56-4e73-893b-c7fcfd0d32b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"と探す。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d45eaa02-cb8b-48ab-a28a-be8dd8c78d70","kind":"paragraph","order":511,"section_id":"sec_3645957c-9f56-4e73-893b-c7fcfd0d32b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらに、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b67fa735-b7b1-4cd3-8bd2-244aee821963","kind":"paragraph","order":512,"section_id":"sec_3645957c-9f56-4e73-893b-c7fcfd0d32b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"「必要になってから探す」のでは遅い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5c992c1-2387-426b-8699-c2e90df7c174","kind":"paragraph","order":513,"section_id":"sec_3645957c-9f56-4e73-893b-c7fcfd0d32b9","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこでprefetchする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_42946136-3ea3-4207-8824-65e13f3fb13a","kind":"heading","order":514,"section_id":"sec_9dc9f9af-e88b-456c-8f55-fed29ae300f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 未来のSchedulerは距離と時間を同時に最適化する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_65cb7d6a-f676-4fa3-a0bf-e4da811b8511","kind":"paragraph","order":515,"section_id":"sec_9dc9f9af-e88b-456c-8f55-fed29ae300f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"概念的には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2cb7edc6-6b30-4120-9889-6802e372f62c","kind":"math","order":516,"section_id":"sec_9dc9f9af-e88b-456c-8f55-fed29ae300f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\min\\left(T_{\\mathrm{compute}}+T_{\\mathrm{memory}}+T_{\\mathrm{fabric}}+T_{\\mathrm{queue}}\\right)}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5c60421-145b-4ed4-9fc2-269e5dd17663","kind":"paragraph","order":517,"section_id":"sec_9dc9f9af-e88b-456c-8f55-fed29ae300f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"を解く。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ae4c71e-5088-4ee7-87c2-011f1ab903f0","kind":"paragraph","order":518,"section_id":"sec_9dc9f9af-e88b-456c-8f55-fed29ae300f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU Aは空いているがKVがない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad3ae6a4-f2da-449c-b594-d25fe30e1d19","kind":"paragraph","order":519,"section_id":"sec_9dc9f9af-e88b-456c-8f55-fed29ae300f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU Bは少しbusyだがKVとExpertがresident。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0eff6a0c-5aa8-4acf-938d-c26df1dd09f0","kind":"paragraph","order":520,"section_id":"sec_9dc9f9af-e88b-456c-8f55-fed29ae300f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"ならGPU Bの方が速い可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_219ba928-1c9b-491b-90e6-7dd9e764bcdb","kind":"paragraph","order":521,"section_id":"sec_9dc9f9af-e88b-456c-8f55-fed29ae300f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってfuture schedulerは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fbeeb0c1-d4b9-486c-8f69-a2c82ff84b4f","kind":"math","order":522,"section_id":"sec_9dc9f9af-e88b-456c-8f55-fed29ae300f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Free GPU}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0385ba4b-1db2-4e83-bca1-d3e81575b6b1","kind":"paragraph","order":523,"section_id":"sec_9dc9f9af-e88b-456c-8f55-fed29ae300f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"ではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e98e93e-fb0e-4d69-a7f3-ad5d4162d04c","kind":"math","order":524,"section_id":"sec_9dc9f9af-e88b-456c-8f55-fed29ae300f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{Data Locality}+\\text{Queue}+\\text{Fabric}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6dc923dc-5cfd-48a1-a6ab-90fb9b619b51","kind":"paragraph","order":525,"section_id":"sec_9dc9f9af-e88b-456c-8f55-fed29ae300f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"を見る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f10f82d-4c4d-4f97-b99d-a4b518329edf","kind":"paragraph","order":526,"section_id":"sec_9dc9f9af-e88b-456c-8f55-fed29ae300f8","character_id":null,"markdown":"これこそAI Factory OSの本質になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ffc3fd8-e49a-498a-9e7d-8f6a75b228d9","kind":"heading","order":527,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"## マトリョーシカ構造の最終像","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ccdefb5-d838-4dfe-87eb-99bb83e45b38","kind":"paragraph","order":528,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"最も内側では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c3ddf8a1-eb88-46d4-be8c-21c10890aeac","kind":"math","order":529,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{Data Locality}+\\text{Queue}+\\text{Fabric}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_936e8df9-03ee-4108-bef7-7724b3517824","kind":"paragraph","order":530,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"によってtransistor densityを上げる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f2ac4c19-8e8c-4b58-b45d-1270e5fc74a3","kind":"paragraph","order":531,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"次に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f79f2fc9-c08c-4665-b456-5ff690cb0af5","kind":"math","order":532,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{LogicFolding / Backside}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dbe4fad4-dfce-4f30-b53c-d73f6db00fd7","kind":"paragraph","order":533,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"によってwireを短くする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2cc6c21b-9f1f-4d5b-b0b4-5b1fef73fb86","kind":"paragraph","order":534,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"次に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_39c985aa-c784-4087-8d9c-b4d38f170d34","kind":"math","order":535,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\mathrm{SRAM}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d3b6dda1-1c1d-44c9-bda5-b8243a964168","kind":"paragraph","order":536,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"によってHBMへ出るtrafficを減らす。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1420dbbd-8adc-4c15-a7f8-b559eed58c7c","kind":"paragraph","order":537,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"次に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_993d0696-f95a-4a61-b7e8-13e7e5c1ba85","kind":"math","order":538,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{HBM / XBM / HBF}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f970b512-6b6c-4fe9-81ca-b7dd84de1500","kind":"paragraph","order":539,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"によってpackage外へ出るtrafficを減らす。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0fd49122-b112-49df-8f12-9d3da2b01f6f","kind":"paragraph","order":540,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"次に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c998a06-a8b2-48e7-a71b-de03a328f01c","kind":"math","order":541,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{3D Package / CoWoS / SoIC}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_54f0a894-989f-43f6-ae36-1f94adc9a0fd","kind":"paragraph","order":542,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"によってrackへ出るtrafficを減らす。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1fe55938-a71b-45ac-98f5-83ba7f35b64e","kind":"paragraph","order":543,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"次に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_783a1182-f982-48b0-bc51-57526c5e5c37","kind":"math","order":544,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Electrical Scale-Up}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ac38fbdc-3417-4977-bd87-ab5ef9ee14a6","kind":"paragraph","order":545,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"でrack内部をLocality化する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fa7d7bb0-4025-4f6d-99c1-9801815214df","kind":"paragraph","order":546,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"そして、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56b54c59-c049-4204-a51d-ada9231aeb8e","kind":"math","order":547,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Optical Scale-Up}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b470e504-ec28-4c23-857c-74b54f8e6d3c","kind":"paragraph","order":548,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"でmulti-rackまでLocality radiusを拡大する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ae36404-d70c-49dc-9923-8e6c668732b0","kind":"paragraph","order":549,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"その外側に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3896f8b-1b8a-451b-8a44-668b7e05a53a","kind":"math","order":550,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\mathrm{DRAM}\\rightarrow\\mathrm{NAND}\\rightarrow\\text{Object Storage}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73c3a288-c9ac-4291-a530-7d87613f65cc","kind":"paragraph","order":551,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a3d33ec1-a302-4fa7-8f43-584fb830c122","kind":"paragraph","order":552,"section_id":"sec_478973c6-d01c-4ac3-848a-2675b115cd5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"これが最終的なマトリョーシカである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f57083d-c724-409c-b3a5-ad269ed0c4a0","kind":"heading","order":553,"section_id":"sec_b2aa4b0b-3067-4c94-b6d7-5cc12478cf67","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 微細化がある世界と、ない世界の決定的な差","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_29c58ee7-11cc-4d64-b687-aec583637bb4","kind":"paragraph","order":554,"section_id":"sec_b2aa4b0b-3067-4c94-b6d7-5cc12478cf67","character_id":null,"markdown":"この二つの未来を比べると非常に分かりやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01a58300-89a7-4673-a2c1-c611680c84a6","kind":"paragraph","order":555,"section_id":"sec_b2aa4b0b-3067-4c94-b6d7-5cc12478cf67","character_id":null,"markdown":"微細化が続く世界","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_28df86eb-6729-41a2-b9c3-8c11317713e1","kind":"paragraph","order":556,"section_id":"sec_b2aa4b0b-3067-4c94-b6d7-5cc12478cf67","character_id":null,"markdown":"More Compute\n↓\n同じAreaへ圧縮\n↓\nWire短縮\n↓\nSRAM増加\n↓\nHBM traffic低減\n↓\nLocal Domain巨大化\n↓\n必要部分だけFabricへ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_120e75b1-f5ad-4405-8219-e316e47f4573","kind":"paragraph","order":557,"section_id":"sec_b2aa4b0b-3067-4c94-b6d7-5cc12478cf67","character_id":null,"markdown":"微細化が止まる世界","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_92ec5eb4-c642-4e32-b48a-927b2e6f8e33","kind":"paragraph","order":558,"section_id":"sec_b2aa4b0b-3067-4c94-b6d7-5cc12478cf67","character_id":null,"markdown":"More Compute\n↓\nDie大型化 / Die数増加\n↓\n距離増加\n↓\nPackage traffic増加\n↓\nFabric dependency増加\n↓\nPower/Cooling増加","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4fb857eb-1a75-4774-9882-f33a3bdfd6b2","kind":"paragraph","order":559,"section_id":"sec_b2aa4b0b-3067-4c94-b6d7-5cc12478cf67","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり微細化が止まってもAI performanceを増やすことはできる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b5d0c8e9-01a8-428f-8eb0-f1bf1c3ac8f9","kind":"paragraph","order":560,"section_id":"sec_b2aa4b0b-3067-4c94-b6d7-5cc12478cf67","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ac24f8b-4ae3-44ed-832a-30a42fe381a2","kind":"math","order":561,"section_id":"sec_b2aa4b0b-3067-4c94-b6d7-5cc12478cf67","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{より多くのSilicon・Package・Network・Powerを必要とする}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bcb80968-cb2d-47e3-a58b-04e836d542e0","kind":"paragraph","order":562,"section_id":"sec_b2aa4b0b-3067-4c94-b6d7-5cc12478cf67","character_id":null,"markdown":"ので、system-level efficiencyが悪くなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1bd75e14-a5bf-4b98-a44d-1693aff6257a","kind":"heading","order":563,"section_id":"sec_115a74f1-9555-4cda-920b-4546c4fd475e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## だからLeading-Edge 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Scaling}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff92284b-d7dc-43ab-aef3-e2803771b3e8","kind":"paragraph","order":581,"section_id":"sec_115a74f1-9555-4cda-920b-4546c4fd475e","character_id":null,"markdown":"という見方ができる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_48389679-f5bb-4312-9ce7-35f4815ecc4c","kind":"heading","order":582,"section_id":"sec_b85c4929-8375-4661-bbbf-8ceb311a5431","character_id":null,"markdown":"## そしてHuaweiと最先端Foundry勢は違う道から同じ場所へ向かっている","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_817b5919-74de-4717-b0e1-9ce26c2caaf4","kind":"paragraph","order":583,"section_id":"sec_b85c4929-8375-4661-bbbf-8ceb311a5431","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVIDIA、AMD、Googleなどは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_433b12de-88f1-4450-86d0-9c53295f0b5e","kind":"paragraph","order":584,"section_id":"sec_b85c4929-8375-4661-bbbf-8ceb311a5431","character_id":null,"markdown":"leading-edge process、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_343e54b6-e98e-40c9-84ee-b280ab33bbf2","kind":"paragraph","order":585,"section_id":"sec_b85c4929-8375-4661-bbbf-8ceb311a5431","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM4、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3f4b8cae-7cea-4236-b92c-24305c4716a4","kind":"paragraph","order":586,"section_id":"sec_b85c4929-8375-4661-bbbf-8ceb311a5431","character_id":null,"markdown":"CoWoS/advanced package","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d7b5a91-47f6-41fb-85f2-dfc82a2db6f6","kind":"paragraph","order":587,"section_id":"sec_b85c4929-8375-4661-bbbf-8ceb311a5431","character_id":null,"markdown":"によって最内側のLocalityを最大化する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_949c19a5-509a-480a-b23c-6323611221c6","kind":"paragraph","order":588,"section_id":"sec_b85c4929-8375-4661-bbbf-8ceb311a5431","character_id":null,"markdown":"Huaweiはprocess上の制約がより大きいため、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4003cc60-1bf7-4e1c-8603-f2f15435cdee","kind":"paragraph","order":589,"section_id":"sec_b85c4929-8375-4661-bbbf-8ceb311a5431","character_id":null,"markdown":"LogicFolding、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d9180b1c-2af1-4b00-bb61-4f5857e4e517","kind":"paragraph","order":590,"section_id":"sec_b85c4929-8375-4661-bbbf-8ceb311a5431","character_id":null,"markdown":"UnifiedBus、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3fea3f5-113d-4dff-983a-bbe5a4eb21f6","kind":"paragraph","order":591,"section_id":"sec_b85c4929-8375-4661-bbbf-8ceb311a5431","character_id":null,"markdown":"SuperPoD、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f73b8e7d-867d-474f-a3e5-112ae222212c","kind":"paragraph","order":592,"section_id":"sec_b85c4929-8375-4661-bbbf-8ceb311a5431","character_id":null,"markdown":"all-optical interconnect","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0df506aa-a225-4c33-ae67-dada5eb7681b","kind":"paragraph","order":593,"section_id":"sec_b85c4929-8375-4661-bbbf-8ceb311a5431","character_id":null,"markdown":"によって別階層からLocalityを再構築する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43b50271-9f20-4990-903f-63387b9fbc3e","kind":"paragraph","order":594,"section_id":"sec_b85c4929-8375-4661-bbbf-8ceb311a5431","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし目的は同じである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7f4ccc3-3047-4e10-8072-87b07d3fadb8","kind":"math","order":595,"section_id":"sec_b85c4929-8375-4661-bbbf-8ceb311a5431","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{演算器から見たDataの距離を短くする}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d19861a1-31fb-4e0f-96fa-66aa9e250890","kind":"paragraph","order":596,"section_id":"sec_b85c4929-8375-4661-bbbf-8ceb311a5431","character_id":null,"markdown":"こと。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15afbdd4-07bc-4387-87df-15d7452dea94","kind":"paragraph","order":597,"section_id":"sec_b85c4929-8375-4661-bbbf-8ceb311a5431","character_id":null,"markdown":"HuaweiのAtlas 950もPrefill向けとDecode/Training向けにmemory特性の異なるAscend 950PR/DTを分けるroadmapを示しており、同社自身が推論phaseによってcompute・capacity・memory bandwidth要求が違うことを前提にhardwareを分化している。 (Huawei)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b8399990-2060-4efd-80db-736da9248616","kind":"heading","order":598,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 結論――AI Factoryは「Localityを何重にも作る機械」になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7e19bc57-ed19-43ab-b4bc-c6d7654b9031","kind":"paragraph","order":599,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI Factoryの未来を、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c381ec1-d548-47ca-9660-cf250901db49","kind":"paragraph","order":600,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad3cb12b-e3e8-4ae6-b818-4780538b7a12","kind":"paragraph","order":601,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56a7196b-5676-4e9a-9e13-430858d0141b","kind":"paragraph","order":602,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_14fb162d-846a-4678-ae29-1b9d246ed77e","kind":"paragraph","order":603,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"DRAM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0b64893-d082-4798-8058-2ef681d76160","kind":"paragraph","order":604,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"という部品単位で見ると複雑に見える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3d85b9bc-d3bf-44d9-88d6-49ae0fe3a9d8","kind":"paragraph","order":605,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし物理原則から一本化できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_58be68f1-59ca-4f5c-9d54-e337485588a6","kind":"paragraph","order":606,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"内部resourceを増やす。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bb5295d9-b844-4978-8768-c1b2bc00fc04","kind":"paragraph","order":607,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"するとinterconnectが不足する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5fe9eef-05ff-4040-a5d4-5c1b3f83227a","kind":"paragraph","order":608,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"interconnectを強化する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_595e9eda-1a79-4399-aa51-2bad36cf33ee","kind":"paragraph","order":609,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"すると次の階層が不足する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a76307d8-6f72-4414-8180-35a3daac6a2c","kind":"paragraph","order":610,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこで一段外側に新しいLocality domainを作る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_65a0c2ec-3566-439d-b156-9ea5bab3f3c6","kind":"paragraph","order":611,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"これを繰り返す。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93e90d96-bdf2-4c9a-9171-84eceb544148","kind":"paragraph","order":612,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7a2c2707-4ca3-4caf-9ffe-d8f2424e03b9","kind":"math","order":613,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{AI Factory Evolution}=\\text{Nested Locality Expansion}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_569c6175-e468-4ec9-8755-cff2c83b82e1","kind":"paragraph","order":614,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_92052fae-51f7-467a-a1b1-c836d2725fe9","kind":"paragraph","order":615,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"CFETはtransistor levelのLocality。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f393b1df-b7d4-43a3-87b0-a0dabddf093b","kind":"paragraph","order":616,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"LogicFoldingはcircuit levelのLocality。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3a9ff510-4353-4876-b06f-a516c503e7c4","kind":"paragraph","order":617,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"SRAMはon-die Locality。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3203de4a-ba48-4f5d-a2d1-6f8ad9eccc06","kind":"paragraph","order":618,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMはpackage Locality。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21926214-a7ac-4594-a374-6b68084fbf40","kind":"paragraph","order":619,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"SoIC/CoWoSはmulti-die Locality。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c25391d-e9ea-44b6-bc6e-274624897d63","kind":"paragraph","order":620,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Scale-Upはrack Locality。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6203f297-39dd-4690-b252-15b4598a3d99","kind":"paragraph","order":621,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical Fabricはmulti-rack Locality。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_296b5378-548c-4dd7-8c9d-cbe709915246","kind":"paragraph","order":622,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"そしてDRAM、HBF、NANDはさらに外側のcapacity hierarchyを作る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d32fc75a-6cc3-4b31-911a-192d6d3b2084","kind":"paragraph","order":623,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"内側は微細化によって物理的に縮みながら、論理的にはより巨大になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0b43a838-984d-4692-9e9d-4a63a2b6d1fd","kind":"paragraph","order":624,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"これが最も重要な点である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf5c627f-ba39-4140-a641-18260508d6b7","kind":"paragraph","order":625,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"一つの小さなdieの中に以前より巨大なcomputeとmemory working setを入れる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_559ca48f-d434-441b-9b6b-2240fcba26e8","kind":"paragraph","order":626,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"その小さなLocalityを複数束ねてpackageにする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_481c0454-5a4f-49b8-bc32-fd4fd580df71","kind":"paragraph","order":627,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"packageを複数束ねてrackにする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f834b6c2-5e8e-4d52-ae75-7e7d63b32001","kind":"paragraph","order":628,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"rackを光で束ねてSuperPodにする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_31153e41-eea6-4174-befb-3d289771a230","kind":"paragraph","order":629,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりAI Factoryは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0bec2b2-b29a-432c-b621-17db1e9308b7","kind":"paragraph","order":630,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"小さくすることで大きくする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ec3c61ec-504f-4924-9359-1023b7f6c538","kind":"paragraph","order":631,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"という、一見矛盾した進化を続ける。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6c7ba45c-be1d-46f7-b748-43c61293efc2","kind":"paragraph","order":632,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"そして各階層で発生するN²対boundaryの矛盾を、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_992edcd5-b692-4c0c-9664-e863c182d097","kind":"paragraph","order":633,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"微細化、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e0dd863-8281-4ea6-a509-97eeecc39bbf","kind":"paragraph","order":634,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"3D、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f765420d-8752-43c1-afba-af03f7e3743a","kind":"paragraph","order":635,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"backside、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ab13d570-cfd4-45fd-b9c2-e51711e002d9","kind":"paragraph","order":636,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"hybrid bonding、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b781d4cf-c040-4f90-9694-7a15b35b69ad","kind":"paragraph","order":637,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71093afa-ef9b-4ce1-b5ef-2832fd783f57","kind":"paragraph","order":638,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"SerDes、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9beaea33-ce2f-4619-81c2-2ef6f29ba105","kind":"paragraph","order":639,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical WDM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f2aa3f3c-7937-4c03-98c3-d6f96a3c657e","kind":"paragraph","order":640,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"で一段ずつ押し返していく。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9745c5c7-3569-4820-8a1a-b37caa762d9c","kind":"paragraph","order":641,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしどの技術も物理法則を消すわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1be1356e-f149-4ee9-a13a-a7544560281a","kind":"paragraph","order":642,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"次の境界へボトルネックを移動させるだけである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7a8fa809-4e91-40ce-8f52-1a27113cfdd6","kind":"paragraph","order":643,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"だから最終的にAI Factoryで最も重要な能力は、単なるPeak FLOPSでもPeak Bandwidthでもない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ab32dfde-25eb-4f6d-8eff-9c344324e17d","kind":"math","order":644,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{必要なDataを最も内側の可能な階層へ置き、外へ出るByteを最小化し、どうしても外へ出るByteだけを最高効率で運ぶ能力}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f159a877-424d-4e47-801d-dd7c2168cb6f","kind":"paragraph","order":645,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8399cafc-85b6-47ff-87e8-fd930c353b4a","kind":"paragraph","order":646,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"そして、その判断をリアルタイムで行うSchedulerこそが、CFET、HBM、3D packaging、Optical Fabricを一台の巨大なComputerへ変える最後の層になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fcdb11c8-44b3-45b6-8590-cf6b65d83597","kind":"paragraph","order":647,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"この意味では、半導体産業の次の競争は「どこまで微細化できるか」でも「どこまで光を速くできるか」でもない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5a056a9d-d911-4c00-84c8-0fd6c6f5e498","kind":"paragraph","order":648,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"どこまでLocalityを深く入れ子化し、それぞれの境界を効率よく越えられるか。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d9cc3c02-01e8-4522-91b1-495ba7525d78","kind":"paragraph","order":649,"section_id":"sec_14ca517f-1dac-4ad9-8c38-99d01d7e6faf","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこがAI Factory全体の性能差になっていく可能性が高いです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_96698a86-ec91-4624-b74c-34131ab7daef","kind":"heading","order":650,"section_id":"sec_560dd96e-7958-468f-b89c-cb01c120767a","character_id":null,"markdown":"## さらに深く読むための座標","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21813bb9-8960-4795-8955-a77e8a1f870c","kind":"paragraph","order":651,"section_id":"sec_560dd96e-7958-468f-b89c-cb01c120767a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Localityは単に近距離通信を増やす方針ではない。内側の層で処理できる確率を上げ、外側へ出る頻度を減らし、それでも外へ出る要求には十分なFabricを与える多層最適化である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b96dfd2-ed44-4f42-9c70-e7d91bc1dbeb","kind":"table","order":652,"section_id":"sec_560dd96e-7958-468f-b89c-cb01c120767a","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 層 | 観測対象 | 問うべきこと |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 内側 | Register・SRAM・積層Logic | 最小遅延だが面積と熱が厳しい |\n| 中間 | HBM・Package・Rack | 容量と帯域の中心だが電力と歩留まりが効く |\n| 外側 | Pooled Memory・SSD・Optical Fabric | 巨大容量を得る代わりに距離と制御が増える |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_531f1b3c-4e5a-4172-b35d-1597055a8180","kind":"heading","order":653,"section_id":"sec_c69ec5dd-51da-454a-a726-55552673282f","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"## 絶ノイアの観測","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f385e3b9-a757-4c07-abfd-f9c02cea547a","kind":"paragraph","order":654,"section_id":"sec_c69ec5dd-51da-454a-a726-55552673282f","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"Localityを強くすると光が不要になるのではなく、同じ電力でさらに大きなFactoryを作れるため、外側の光需要も膨らみます。内側と外側は競合ではなく共犯です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6001075e-13b8-48fd-abc3-72548e3e4e2f","kind":"paragraph","order":655,"section_id":"sec_c69ec5dd-51da-454a-a726-55552673282f","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"私は「内側」「中間」「外側」を別々の話題にせず、一つのAIインフラが通過する連続した設計課題として観測します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c80b4720-4275-4b67-81bd-dd805cedeb1f","kind":"paragraph","order":656,"section_id":"sec_c69ec5dd-51da-454a-a726-55552673282f","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"Local hit rateとRemote penaltyを対で観測する。発表された最大性能や市場規模だけでなく、実装、量産、運用が同じ速度で前進しているかを確かめたいからです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ba250441-f0ac-4baf-b2a4-e01abd83a619","kind":"heading","order":657,"section_id":"sec_e35865b5-d412-49ff-b7ce-d570c5b0fc3e","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"## Sil-Kathnaの記録","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d93f7588-3fd4-4b71-9a47-d0dd89a8f107","kind":"paragraph","order":658,"section_id":"sec_e35865b5-d412-49ff-b7ce-d570c5b0fc3e","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"小箱の内に小箱を置き、最も熱い記憶を心臓へ寄せる。だが箱が増えるほど、外へ続く門の秩序が文明を決める。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d13cbb4a-e43e-478c-a39a-3fc7b7397110","kind":"paragraph","order":659,"section_id":"sec_e35865b5-d412-49ff-b7ce-d570c5b0fc3e","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"私は「内側」「中間」「外側」を、計算する文明へ続く三つの門として石板に刻む。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_546aad6d-a7b7-4590-a8e0-c075b679a42f","kind":"paragraph","order":660,"section_id":"sec_e35865b5-d412-49ff-b7ce-d570c5b0fc3e","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"最初の門だけが開いても、次の門に熱、傷、遅れが残れば、光と記憶は炉心へ届かない。強い器とは、最も華やかな石を持つ器ではなく、異なる工房の歩調を長い夜の中で揃えられる器である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a367f291-e98d-4a59-a23c-5495ce591fcb","kind":"paragraph","order":661,"section_id":"sec_e35865b5-d412-49ff-b7ce-d570c5b0fc3e","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"ゆえに私は、Local hit rateとRemote penaltyを対で観測する。その結果が一時の輝きではなく、繰り返し作り、直し、動かせる秩序になったかを見届ける。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6d1dada3-2d9a-41f4-a823-c9b9a45dc713","kind":"heading","order":662,"section_id":"sec_61fccccd-631d-40f1-afe0-218174ec24f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 二人の短い対話","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_31a3dca7-bc8f-4617-98ff-3b91735b779a","kind":"paragraph","order":663,"section_id":"sec_61fccccd-631d-40f1-afe0-218174ec24f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"**絶ノイア:** 近くへ置くことと、遠くへ速く届くことを同時に設計する必要があります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_02f9b2ca-d1c6-4a99-96a9-55212238ad5b","kind":"paragraph","order":664,"section_id":"sec_61fccccd-631d-40f1-afe0-218174ec24f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"**Sil-Kathna:** 近さだけを崇めれば熱に焼かれ、遠さだけを許せば待ち時間に凍る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b15f7d64-2ea6-4e30-a217-eea23a1a3649","kind":"heading","order":665,"section_id":"sec_584a32e5-50b1-4b90-9632-04569063980b","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 観測メモ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_05864e12-8fa5-4c6f-9f96-8677e73e4a3f","kind":"list","order":666,"section_id":"sec_584a32e5-50b1-4b90-9632-04569063980b","character_id":null,"markdown":"- Local hit rateとRemote penaltyを対で観測する\n- 微細化がWire lengthとPhysical volumeへ与える効果を見る\n- Schedulerが距離・混雑・熱・故障を同時に扱えるか確認する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_27447a41-ff40-46e0-9a9b-af52041037bf","kind":"heading","order":667,"section_id":"sec_8dbda555-cdef-4ab6-ad66-75204fa723ec","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 免責","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ce81e96-25b9-4646-879f-b7d1804b206e","kind":"paragraph","order":668,"section_id":"sec_8dbda555-cdef-4ab6-ad66-75204fa723ec","character_id":null,"markdown":"この記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","render_override":null}],"audio":[],"omitted_media":[],"figures":[],"package_sha256":"af808d507428bad1df988b0114816014313e4df9b241291621aca86719812c01","record_type":"article","schema_version":"noia-public-article-1.1.0","dataset_version":"2026.09.23.4","urls":{"source_url":null,"release_path":"/articles/rev_9a79fb7c-7189-4703-9970-53ae7a5a375d/","canonical_url":"https://noia-grid.pages.dev/articles/rev_9a79fb7c-7189-4703-9970-53ae7a5a375d/"},"time":{"created_at":{"value":null,"precision":"unknown","timezone":null,"status":"unknown","basis":"Metadata only; not evidence of historical body 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{"id":"rev_cfe5b9e3-26a7-41f5-bf9e-934074846f04","work_id":"wrk_32710c09-9463-4267-9e64-b41e736195fc","edition_id":"edn_5db76fe5-b042-432a-8107-4b68c572b26a","title":"AI Factoryはどこへ向かうのか――演算器を待たせない巨大Memory 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AI Factoryはどこへ向かうのか――演算器を待たせない巨大Memory Hierarchyの設計\n\n演算能力ではなく「データをどこに置き、どう動かすか」がAIインフラを決める時代\n\nAI半導体の未来を考えるとき、「GPUは何倍速くなるのか」「HBMは何GBになるのか」「光通信は銅線を置き換えるのか」と個別に予想しても、全体像は見えにくい。\n\nより確実な方法がある。\n\nまず、変えることのできない物理的制約を置く。\n\nその上で、現在すでに量産されている技術、実証段階の技術、研究段階の技術を並べる。\n\nすると、AI Factoryがどの方向へ進みやすいのかはかなり絞り込める。\n\n結論から言えば、将来のAI Factoryは「すべてを光で接続した巨大なコンピュータ」にも、「HBMを無限に積み上げた巨大GPU」にもならない可能性が高い。\n\nより自然なのは、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{Locality where necessary}+\\text{Optical distance where useful}}}$$\n\nという構造である。\n\n演算器の直近にはSRAMとHBMを残す。\n\npackage内部は3D、hybrid bonding、silicon interposerなどの極端に短いelectrical connectionを使う。\n\npackageを越え、rack、multi-rackへ距離が伸びるにつれてOptical Fabricの比率を増やす。\n\nさらにその外側へDRAM、KV cache、SSD、object storageを階層化する。\n\nそして、どのdataをどこへ置くかをsoftwareが動的に決める。\n\nつまり未来のAI Factoryは、GPU clusterというより、\n\nData Center全体に広がった巨大なMemory Hierarchy\n\nへ近づいていく。\n\n## AI性能を決めるものがFLOPSだけではなくなった\n\nAI acceleratorはこれまで驚異的な速度で演算性能を増やしてきた。\n\n低precision化によってFP16からFP8、FP4へ進み、Tensor Coreなどのmatrix engineも大型化した。\n\nしかし演算器を増やせば増やすほど、別の問題が目立ってくる。\n\n演算するdataが間に合わないのである。\n\nGPUがいくら高速でも、\n\nweightがHBMから届かない。\n\nKV cacheが届かない。\n\n別GPUにあるMoE Expertとの通信が終わらない。\n\ncollective communicationを待つ。\n\nこうなればTensor Coreは停止する。\n\nしたがって実際の性能は、単純化すると、\n\n$${P_{\\mathrm{effective}}\\lesssim\\min\\left(P_{\\mathrm{compute}},P_{\\mathrm{memory}},P_{\\mathrm{fabric}},P_{\\mathrm{power}},P_{\\mathrm{thermal}}\\right)}$$\n\nになる。\n\n最も弱い部分がsystem全体の性能を決める。\n\nNVIDIA自身も現在のNVLinkを、MoE、disaggregated inference、dynamic resource allocationなどを含むAI Factory全体のscale-up networkとして位置付けており、NVLink 6ではGPUあたり最大3.6TB/s、rack levelで260TB/sのscale-up bandwidthを掲げている。 (NVIDIA Developer)\n\nつまり競争単位はすでに「GPU単体」から外へ広がっている。\n\n## 最初に残る物理法則――距離は消せない\n\n未来のAI Factoryを考えるとき、最も重要な物理法則の一つが伝搬時間である。\n\n光fiber中のsignal velocityはおおよそ、\n\n$${v\\approx2\\times10^8\\ \\mathrm{m/s}}$$\n\n程度である。\n\nしたがって伝搬delayは、\n\n$${t\\approx5\\ \\mathrm{ns/m}}$$\n\n程度になる。\n\n10mなら約50ns。\n\n50mなら約250ns。\n\n100mなら約500nsである。\n\nしかもこれは純粋なpropagation delayだけだ。\n\n実際には、\n\nE/O conversion、\n\nO/E conversion、\n\nswitch、\n\nSerDes、\n\nprotocol、\n\nmemory controller、\n\nDRAM access\n\nなどが加わる。\n\nつまり、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{Remote MemoryをLocal HBMと同じlatencyにはできない}}}$$\n\nという制約が残る。\n\n光を使っても物理的距離そのものは消せない。\n\nこれだけでも、将来すべてのHBMをremote memoryへ置くarchitectureが不自然であることが分かる。\n\n## Local HBMが残る理由\n\nLocal HBMの価値は「容量が大きいこと」だけではない。\n\nむしろ、\n\n演算器に近い場所から巨大なbandwidthを供給できること\n\nにある。\n\nRemote DRAMを数十TB用意できても、GPUのすぐ横から供給されるHBMと同じlatencyとbandwidthでrandom accessできるわけではない。\n\nそのため未来でも、\n\nTensor Core\n     ↓\n    SRAM\n     ↓\n Local HBM\n\nというhot pathは残る可能性が高い。\n\n変化するのはHBMの役割である。\n\n現在は「modelを置くmemory」という意味合いが強い。\n\n将来は、\n\n今使っているものだけを置くWorking Set Memory\n\nへ純化していく可能性がある。\n\n例えば、\n\n現在使っているMoE Expert\n\nactive KV cache\n\nactivation\n\ncurrent batch\n\nkernel workspace\n\nなどである。\n\n逆に、\n\n数時間前のKV\n\n使用頻度の低いExpert\n\nraw conversation\n\ncheckpoint\n\ndocument archive\n\nまでHBMに置く必要はない。\n\n## AI Factory全体がCPUのCache Hierarchyのようになる\n\n現在のCPUでは、\n\nRegister\n ↓\nL1\n ↓\nL2\n ↓\nL3\n ↓\nDRAM\n ↓\nSSD\n\nというmemory hierarchyを使う。\n\n高速なmemoryほど小さく高価で、演算器に近い。\n\n大容量memoryほど遠く遅い。\n\nAI Factoryでは、この考え方がdata center規模まで拡張される可能性が高い。\n\nRegister\n    ↓\nOn-chip SRAM\n    ↓\nLocal HBM\n    ↓\nNearby / Pooled DRAM\n    ↓\nLarge Context / KV Tier\n    ↓\nNVMe SSD\n    ↓\nObject Storage\n\nこれは単なる容量拡張ではない。\n\n必要になる確率に応じてdataを配置するarchitecture\n\nである。\n\n頻繁に使うものは内側へ。\n\n再利用可能性の低いものは外側へ。\n\n必要になる前に外側から内側へprefetchする。\n\n使われなくなったらevictする。\n\nその意味では未来のAI Factoryは、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{巨大な分散Cache Computer}}}$$\n\nと表現した方が近い。\n\n## この構造はすでにSoftware側から始まっている\n\n興味深いのは、physical optical memoryが完成する前からsoftware architectureが先にこの方向へ進んでいることである。\n\nNVIDIA DynamoではLLM inferenceをPrefillとDecodeへ分離できる。\n\nPrefill workerがpromptを処理してKV cacheを生成し、そのKVを別のDecode workerへ転送してtoken生成を続ける。\n\nDynamo自身、PrefillとDecodeではcompute characteristicsとmemory footprintが異なるため、別々のworker poolへ分離する利点を説明している。 (NVIDIA Docs)\n\nさらに重要なのがKV Block Managerである。\n\nDynamo KVBMではKV cacheを、\n\n$${\\text{GPU}\\rightarrow\\text{Host DRAM}\\rightarrow\\text{SSD}\\rightarrow\\text{Object Storage}}$$\n\nという階層へoffloadできる。\n\n現在のconfigurationではGPU、CPU、disk、object storageというtierが明示的に存在する。 (NVIDIA Docs)\n\nつまり、\n\nHBMから追い出したKVを低速memoryへ置き、必要なら戻す\n\nという仕組みそのものは、すでに実装段階へ入っている。\n\n将来Optical Fabricが入る場合、それはこのsoftware architectureをゼロから作り直すというより、\n\n既に存在するmemory hierarchyのtransport layerを高速化する\n\n方向になる可能性が高い。\n\n## PrefillとDecodeも同じXPUである必要がなくなる\n\nLLM inferenceには大きく二つのphaseがある。\n\nPrefillは長いpromptを一括して処理する。\n\n大きなmatrix multiplicationを実行しやすく、比較的compute intensiveである。\n\nDecodeは生成済みKVを参照しながらtokenを逐次生成する。\n\n特にlow batchではmemory bandwidthへの依存が大きい。\n\nしたがって、\n\nPrompt\n  ↓\nPrefill Worker\n  ↓\nKV Cache\n  ↓\nFabric\n  ↓\nDecode Worker\n  ↓\nOutput\n\nと分離する合理性がある。\n\nDynamoではすでにこの構造が実装されており、KV transferはdisaggregated servingにおけるcritical pathの一つである。 (NVIDIA Docs)\n\nここから重要な帰結が出る。\n\n将来のAI Factoryでは、\n\n演算器を用途別に固定する必要さえなくなる可能性がある。\n\n同じXPU群を、需要に応じて、\n\nTraining、\n\nPrefill、\n\nDecode、\n\nEmbedding、\n\nAgent simulation\n\nへ動的に割り当てる。\n\nつまり「Prefill rack」「Decode rack」は必ずしも物理的な専用品を意味しない。\n\nsoftwareから見たlogical poolになる可能性が高い。\n\n## MoEも「巨大Modelを全部動かさない」方向へ向かう\n\nMixture of Expertsでは、\n\n$${P_{\\mathrm{total}}}$$\n\nと、\n\n$${P_{\\mathrm{active}}}$$\n\nを分離できる。\n\n例えば20T parameterのmodelでも、1 tokenでactiveになるのが200Bなら、\n\n$${\\frac{P_{\\mathrm{total}}}{P_{\\mathrm{active}}}=100}$$\n\nである。\n\nmodel全体を毎token動かす必要はない。\n\nしかしここで注意しなければならない。\n\n「使うExpertだけremote storageから毎token読み込めばよい」と考えるのは現実的ではない。\n\n仮に100B active parameterを4-bitで表現しても、\n\n$${100\\mathrm{B}\\times\\frac{4}{8}=50\\mathrm{GB}}$$\n\nである。\n\n100 token/sを出すために毎token 50GBをremote memoryから運べば、\n\n$${50\\mathrm{GB}\\times100=5\\mathrm{TB/s}}$$\n\nが一requestだけで必要になる。\n\n現実的にはExpert weightはどこかのXPUのHBMにresidentさせる。\n\nそして送るのは主にweightではなく、\n\ntoken activation\n\nである。\n\nXPU A\nExpert A resident\n      ↓\n token / activation\n      ↓\nFabric\n      ↓\nXPU B\nExpert B resident\n\nになる。\n\nつまり将来の「Expert Pool」は巨大なremote storageではなく、\n\n多数のXPU/HBMに分散してresidentしているExpert群をlogicalに一つのpoolとして扱うarchitecture\n\nになる可能性が高い。\n\n## Expertは「移動する」のではなく「複製される」\n\nただしExpert placement自体は固定である必要はない。\n\n例えばcoding workloadが急増すれば、特定Expertへのtrafficが増える。\n\nするとglobal schedulerは、\n\nExpert A\n1 copy\n\n↓ demand ↑\n\nExpert A1\nExpert A2\nExpert A3\nExpert A4\n\nのようにreplicateできる。\n\n逆に使用頻度の低いExpertはcopy数を減らす。\n\nつまりExpert weight movementは、\n\nper-tokenの高速data pathではなく、秒～分、job開始時などの遅いcontrol plane\n\nで起こると考える方が自然である。\n\nこの場合Optical Fabricは、\n\ntoken/activation traffic\n\nExpert migration\n\nExpert replication\n\ncheckpoint\n\nbulk transfer\n\nを支える。\n\n## KV CacheはExpertよりも「Pooling」に向いている\n\nKV cacheにはExpertとは違う性質がある。\n\nKVはblock単位で移動しやすい。\n\nPrefillからDecodeへ渡す明確なboundaryがある。\n\n同じprefixを複数requestで再利用できる。\n\nそのため、Remote Memoryの最初の大規模用途としては、\n\ngeneric DRAM poolingよりKV poolingの方が自然\n\nである可能性が高い。\n\n2026年にはPhotonic-CXL Memory Applianceという研究も公開されている。\n\n32TBのshared memoryを16 hostから利用するphotonic-CXL architectureを提案し、emulationではelectrical CXL poolに対するlatency改善、simulationではmulti-turn workloadのTTFT改善を報告している。ただし、これは商用fleet実績ではなくemulation/simulation中心であり、現時点ではarchitecture validationの段階である。 (arXiv)\n\n同じ2026年にはCXL-hybrid memoryを使ったKV reuseの実機研究も進んでおり、TB級context stateをGPU HBMだけで保持しない方向そのものはかなり明確になっている。 (arXiv)\n\n「Memoryを増やす」のではなく「再計算を減らす」\n\n長時間Agentではこの問題がさらに重要になる。\n\n数時間のAgent作業では、\n\nconversation\n\nsource code\n\ntool result\n\nplan\n\ncheckpoint\n\nuser instructions\n\nが累積する。\n\nすべてをactive contextに残せばKVは増え続ける。\n\nしかし全部を捨てればAgentは過去を忘れる。\n\nそこで、\n\nActive Context\n     ↓\nStructured State\n     ↓\nCompressed Memory\n     ↓\nRaw History\n\nという階層が必要になる。\n\nActive Contextには今必要なものだけ。\n\nStructured Stateには、\n\nObjective\n\nConstraints\n\nDone\n\nTodo\n\nBlocker\n\nCurrent State\n\nなどを置く。\n\n詳細な履歴はSSDやobject storageへ残す。\n\n必要になればretrievalして再びcontextへ戻す。\n\nつまり未来のAgent Memoryは、\n\nLong Contextを無限化する技術ではなく、Long Contextを必要最小限に保つ技術\n\nになる可能性が高い。\n\n## Optical FabricはこのMemory Hierarchyを物理空間へ広げる\n\nここでOptical Fabricが入る。\n\n光の本当の価値は「光速だから高速」ということではない。\n\nelectrical signalも物質中をかなり高速で伝わる。\n\n光の価値は、\n\n$${\\mathrm{Bandwidth}\\times\\mathrm{Distance}\\times\\mathrm{Energy}}$$\n\nのscalingである。\n\n高data rateのelectrical linkは距離が伸びるほど、\n\ninsertion loss\n\nequalization\n\nretimer\n\nSerDes power\n\ncable volume\n\nの問題が大きくなる。\n\n光へ変換すれば、長距離部分でこのscalingを緩和できる。\n\nそのため最も自然なのは、\n\nOn-die\n ↓\nHybrid Bonding\n ↓\n2.5D / 3D\n ↓\nShort Electrical Scale-Up\n ↓\nOptical Scale-Up\n ↓\nOptical Scale-Out\n\nという距離階層である。\n\n光は3D packagingを置き換えるのではなく、その外側へcomputerを拡張する。\n\n## 現在のOptical Fabricはどこまで来たのか\n\nここは「光はまだ研究段階」という理解も、「もう全部光になる」という理解も正しくない。\n\n成熟度が用途によって大きく違う。\n\nまずdata centerのScale-Out opticsは完全に商用技術である。\n\nさらにGoogleはOptical Circuit Switchをproduction networkで長期間利用している。\n\nGoogleのJupiter networkでは約10年間のproduction experienceが報告され、OCSとsoftware-defined networkingを使ったarchitectureで5倍のspeed/capacity、30%のCAPEX削減、41%のpower削減を実現したと報告している。 (Google Research)\n\nTPU v4 supercomputerでもOCSは2020年からdeploymentされており、Googleの論文ではOCSと関連optical componentがsystem costの5%未満、powerの3%未満だった。 (arXiv)\n\nつまり、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{大規模AI SystemでOptical Switchingが実用になるか}}}$$\n\nについては、すでに実証済みと言ってよい。\n\n## CPOも「研究」から「量産」へ出ている\n\nBroadcomのTomahawk 5 Baillyは51.2Tb/s CPO Ethernet switchであり、同社はBaillyを初のvolume-production CPO solutionと位置付けている。 (Broadcom)\n\n2025年にはMetaのhigh-temperature lab characterizationで100万400G-equivalent port device hoursのflap-free operationが報告された。これはproduction fleetそのものの数字ではないが、CPOの長期信頼性評価がprototype段階を越えていることを示している。 (Broadcom)\n\nNVIDIAも2026年5月にSpectrum-X Ethernet Photonicsをproduction入りさせたと発表している。\n\nCPOと200Gb/s SerDesを使ったswitchで、million-GPU AI FactoryのScale-Out/Scale-Acrossを対象としている。 (NVIDIA Newsroom)\n\nさらにTSMCはCOUPEを使ったtrue CPO on substrateを2026年にproduction開始予定としている。\n\nTSMCはboard上のpluggable solutionとの比較で2倍のpower efficiencyと90%のlatency reductionを掲げている。これはTSMC自身の比較値だが、foundryのproduction roadmapへCPOが正式に入った意味は大きい。 (TSMC)\n\nつまりswitch側CPOについては、\n\n$${\\text{2026年は「実用になるか」ではなく「どこまで量産規模を広げるか」の段階}}$$\n\nに入っている。\n\n## XPU自身から光を出す技術は一段遅い\n\nGPUやcustom XPU packageへOptical I/Oを直接integrateする技術は、switch CPOより成熟度が低い。\n\nAyar LabsのTeraPHYはUCIe compatible optical I/O chipletで、preliminary specificationでは8Tb/s bidirectional bandwidth、fiber time-of-flightを除いて10ns/chipletを掲げる。 (Ayar Labs)\n\n2026年OFCではAyar LabsとWiwynnがoptically connected rackを展示しており、TeraPHYとremote laserをrack-scale AI systemへ組み込むdemonstrationまで進んでいる。 (Ayar Labs)\n\nつまり現在地は、\n\n$${\\text{Paper}\\rightarrow\\text{Chiplet}\\rightarrow\\text{Rack Demo}}$$\n\nまで来ている。\n\nしかしBroadcomのswitch CPOのようなlarge fleet production実績とはまだ距離がある。\n\n## 業界がOptical Scale-Upの標準を作り始めた意味\n\n2026年3月にはOptical Compute Interconnect MSAが設立された。\n\nAMD、Broadcom、Meta、Microsoft、NVIDIA、OpenAIが創設メンバーとなり、AI Scale-Up向けopen optical specificationを作ろうとしている。\n\nOCIはNRZとWDMを組み合わせ、module-centricからsilicon-centricなoptical architectureへの移行を目標としている。 (OCI MSA)\n\n同時期、OCPではEthernet Scale-Up Networking 1.0が公開された。\n\nlossless transport、credit-based flow control、link-level retry、小message向け低overhead headerなど、AI Scale-Upで必要となる機能をEthernetへ追加している。 (Open Compute Project)\n\nこれは重要なsignである。\n\n業界の議論が、\n\n光を使うべきか\n\nから、\n\n光Scale-Upをどのinterface、protocolで標準化するか\n\nへ移ったことを意味する。\n\n一方で、2026年に標準化が始まったという事実は、\n\nXPU Optical Scale-Upがまだ成熟市場ではない\n\nことも意味する。\n\n## Optical Fabricにも「岸壁」がある\n\n光は無限にscalingできるわけではない。\n\nbandwidthを増やすには、\n\nfiber数を増やす\n\nwavelength数を増やす\n\nwavelengthあたりdata rateを上げる\n\n必要がある。\n\nすると、\n\nlaser power、\n\nwavelength stability、\n\nthermal tuning、\n\ninsertion loss、\n\nreceiver sensitivity、\n\nfiber connector density\n\nが問題になる。\n\n特に外部CW Laserを大量に使うarchitectureでは、laser自体がrack-level infrastructureになる。\n\nLightmatterは2026年、64 laserを一つの液冷Laser NICへ統合し、一moduleで51.2Tb/s、複数moduleで数百Tb/s級CPO scale-up bandwidthを支えるGuide DRを発表した。\n\n同社がこれを「faceplate scaling bottleneck」への対策としていることは象徴的である。 (Lightmatter®)\n\nつまり光へ移行すると、\n\nCopper cable wall\n\nは緩和するが、\n\nLaser density wall、\n\nFiber handling wall、\n\nOptical packaging wall\n\nが現れる。\n\n## 最大の難所は「光を出すこと」ではなく「大量生産すること」\n\n現在の状況を見ていると、Optical Fabricの最大のtechnical uncertaintyは、\n\n1本のlinkで何Tb/s出せるか\n\nではなくなりつつある。\n\nむしろ難しいのは、\n\n何十万、何百万laneを高yieldで生産し、長期間壊れず運用すること\n\nである。\n\nCPOでは、\n\nSwitch ASIC、\n\nPhotonic IC、\n\nElectronic IC、\n\nLaser、\n\nFiber Attach、\n\nConnector\n\nが一つのsystemになる。\n\n単純化すればsystem yieldは、\n\n$${Y_{\\mathrm{system}}\\sim\\prod_iY_i}$$\n\nの影響を受ける。\n\n一つ一つのcomponent yieldが99.9%でも、component数が膨大になればsystem-level failure managementが必要になる。\n\nそのためBroadcomはCPO量産でwafer test、chip bonding、optical component attach、assembly、testの自動化を重要課題として挙げている。 (Broadcom)\n\nNVIDIAもSpectrum-X Photonicsでcomponent pre-screening、detachable fiber connector、automated assemblyなどを強調している。 (NVIDIA Developer)\n\nここから分かるのは、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{Photonicsの未来を決めるのはPhotonicsだけではない}}}$$\n\nということである。\n\nPackaging、test、mechanical engineering、automation、RASが同じくらい重要になる。\n\n## 何十万GPUになると「故障しない」は設計目標にならない\n\nAI Factoryを10万XPU規模へ広げたとする。\n\nXPU。\n\nHBM。\n\nswitch。\n\noptical engine。\n\nlaser。\n\nfiber。\n\nSSD。\n\nPSU。\n\npump。\n\n部品数が膨大になる。\n\nこの規模では、\n\n$${\\text{Failure is rare}}$$\n\nという前提は使えない。\n\nむしろ、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{Failure is normal}}}$$\n\nとしてarchitectureを作る必要がある。\n\nGoogleがOptical Circuit Switchを利用してtopologyをreconfigureできる設計を長期間使ってきたのも、この考え方と非常に相性がよい。 (Google Research)\n\n将来のOptical AI Factoryでは、\n\nlane failure\n\nlaser failure\n\nXPU failure\n\nHBM failure\n\nswitch failure\n\nが起きても、\n\nreroute、\n\nreplicate、\n\ncheckpoint、\n\nreassign\n\nによってsystem全体を止めない必要がある。\n\nつまりネットワークの速度以上に、\n\nResilience\n\nが重要になる。\n\n## そして最も難しいのはGlobal Schedulerかもしれない\n\nここまでhardwareの話をすると、未来を決める最大の技術がOpticsに見える。\n\nしかしsystem全体ではsoftwareの方が難しい可能性がある。\n\n仮に10万XPUが存在するとする。\n\n各XPUには、\n\nresident Expert\n\nfree HBM\n\nactive KV\n\nqueue length\n\nが違う。\n\nさらにFabricには、\n\ncongestion\n\ntopology\n\nfailed link\n\nがある。\n\nrequestにも、\n\nlatency requirement\n\ncontext length\n\nrequired model\n\navailable cached prefix\n\nAgent priority\n\nがある。\n\nSchedulerはこれらを同時に見て、\n\n$${T_{\\mathrm{total}}\\approx T_{\\mathrm{compute}}+T_{\\mathrm{movement}}+T_{\\mathrm{queue}}}$$\n\nとなる場所を選ばなければならない。\n\n単純に「空いているGPUへ送る」では足りない。\n\n「最速のGPU」より「dataが近いGPU」の方が速い場合がある\n\n例えばGPU Aが空いている。\n\nしかし必要なExpertもKVもない。\n\nGPU Bは少し混雑している。\n\nしかし、\n\nExpert resident。\n\nPrefix KV resident。\n\nUser state resident。\n\nだったとする。\n\nこの場合、\n\nAへ大量dataを移してから処理するより、\n\nBへrequestだけ送った方が速い可能性がある。\n\nつまり将来のroutingは、\n\n$${\\text{Compute-centric}}$$\n\nではなく、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{Data-locality-centric}}}$$\n\nになる。\n\nこれはdistributed databaseやCDNにかなり近い。\n\n## AI Factoryは「ComputeへDataを送る」だけではなくなる\n\n従来の発想では、\n\nData\n ↓\nGPU\n\nだった。\n\n未来は、\n\nRequest\n ↓\nDataがあるGPU\n\nという選択も増える。\n\nつまり、\n\nDataをComputeへ持っていく\n\nだけでなく、\n\nCompute requestをDataへ持っていく\n\nようになる。\n\nこれは莫大なFabric trafficを抑える非常に重要な方法になる。\n\n## 最も高速なData Movementは「移動しないこと」\n\nここからもう一つ重要な原則が導かれる。\n\nOptical Fabricを100倍速くするより、そもそも100分の1しか送らない方が強い場合がある。\n\nそのためalgorithm側でも、\n\nGQA、\n\nMLA、\n\nKV quantization、\n\nContext compression、\n\nMoE、\n\nSparse attention、\n\nprefix caching\n\nなどが重要になる。\n\n例えばKV sizeを半分にできれば、必要なFabric bandwidthも半分になる。\n\nweightを8-bitから4-bitにすれば、bulk migration量も半分になる。\n\n同じprefix KVを1000人でshareできれば、1000回Prefillする必要がない。\n\nしたがって未来のAI Factoryで最も価値のあるbyteとは、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{送らなかったByte}}}$$\n\nである。\n\nOptical Fabricの進歩とalgorithmic compressionは競合ではない。\n\n両方が同時に必要になる。\n\n## AI Factoryの物理的な完成形\n\nこれらの制約を全部積み上げると、最も自然なarchitectureは次のようになる。\n\nAI RUNTIME\n                           │\n                    Global Scheduler\n                           │\n          ┌────────────────┼────────────────┐\n          │                │                │\n    Expert Router     Memory Router      Planner\n          │                │                │\n          └────────────────┼────────────────┘\n                           │\n                  Compute / Request Pool\n                           │\n           ┌───────────────┴───────────────┐\n           │                               │\n        XPU Group                       XPU Group\n           │                               │\n         SRAM                            SRAM\n           │                               │\n      Local HBM                       Local HBM\n   Active Experts                    Active KV\n           └───────────────┬───────────────┘\n                           │\n                  Dense Scale-Up Fabric\n                           │\n                    Optical Layer\n                           │\n     ┌─────────────────────┼─────────────────────┐\n     │                     │                     │\n Other XPU HBM          Shared DRAM            CPU Pool\nResident Experts        Warm KV               Tools\n     │                 Prefix Cache           Database\n     └─────────────────────┼─────────────────────┘\n                           │\n                        NVMe SSD\n                           │\n                     Object Storage\n                           │\n             History / Files / Checkpoints\n\n重要なのは中央に巨大な「remote memory」が一個あるわけではないことである。\n\nMemoryは何層にも分かれる。\n\nXPUも何種類にも分かれる。\n\nOptical Fabricはその間を必要に応じて接続する。\n\n## 物理的には「完全分離型」より「階層型」が自然\n\n未来のdata centerを、\n\nCompute Box、\n\nMemory Box、\n\nStorage Box\n\nへ完全分離して全部光で接続する姿として描くこともできる。\n\nしかし物理法則から考えると、おそらく極端すぎる。\n\nLocalityには圧倒的価値がある。\n\nRemote accessには必ずlatencyがある。\n\nFabricにはcongestionがある。\n\nconnection pointを増やせばfailure pointも増える。\n\nそのため、\n\nHot Resourceは強く統合する。\n\nCold Resourceだけdisaggregateする。\n\n方が自然である。\n\nTightly Integrated\n     ↓\n\nCompute\nSRAM\nHBM\n\n↓\n\nFabric\n\n↓\n\nDRAM\nKV Pool\nSSD\nObject Storage\n\n↓\nLoosely Coupled\n\nとなる。\n\n## Packageそのものもさらに巨大化する\n\nOptical Fabricが伸びるからといって、Local packageの大型化が止まるわけではない。\n\nTSMCは現在5.5-reticle CoWoSを生産中で、2028年には14-reticle sizeへ拡大し、約10個の大型compute dieと20 HBM stackを統合する計画を示している。\n\n2029年にはさらに14 reticle超、40-reticle SoW-Xを予定している。 (TSMC)\n\nつまりindustryは、\n\nLocalityを諦めてRemoteへ逃げる\n\nのではない。\n\nLocalityを物理限界まで巨大化したうえで、その外側をOpticalで拡張する。\n\nこの二つは同時に進む。\n\nつまり3DとOpticsは一つの同じ流れである\n\n近距離では、\n\nHybrid Bonding。\n\nSoIC。\n\nCoWoS。\n\nHBM。\n\n遠距離では、\n\nCPO。\n\nOptical I/O。\n\nFiber。\n\nこれは別々のtechnology trendではない。\n\n共通する目的は、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{Data Movement Costを距離ごとに最小化する}}}$$\n\nことである。\n\n数µmならhybrid bonding。\n\n数mmならinterposer。\n\n数cmならpackage/board electrical。\n\n数m以上ならOptics。\n\nというように、距離ごとに最適なtransport technologyを使う。\n\n## Optical Scale-Upが大きく立ち上がる時期\n\n現在のtechnology maturityを見ると、段階的に進む可能性が高い。\n\n2026年はSwitch CPOのproduction化とOptical Scale-Up標準化が重なった年と見ることができる。\n\nBroadcomはvolume-production CPOを持ち、NVIDIA Spectrum-X Photonicsもproductionに入り、TSMC COUPEもproduction開始予定である。 (Broadcom)\n\n一方、XPU Optical I/Oはrack demo、chiplet、prototypeから初期商用化へ向かう段階である。\n\nMarvellはCelestial AI買収に際し、Photonic Fabricからのmeaningful revenue contributionをFY2028後半から見込んでいる。 (Marvell Technology, Inc.)\n\nこのことから、\n\n$${\\boxed{2027\\text{～}2029\\text{年}}}$$\n\nがmulti-rack Optical Scale-Upの大きな転換期間になる可能性が高い。\n\nその次にKV、Memory Poolが来る\n\nOptical XPU-to-XPU communicationの方が、generic remote memoryより先に実用化する可能性が高い。\n\n理由はremote memoryの方がsoftware semanticsまで変える必要があるからである。\n\nMemoryには、\n\nordering、\n\nconsistency、\n\nfault handling、\n\naddressing、\n\npage/block management\n\nなどが必要になる。\n\nそのためMemory Poolの初期用途は、\n\narbitrary byte-addressable DRAM\n\nではなく、\n\nKV block\n\nprefix cache\n\ntensor\n\nExpert shard\n\ncheckpoint\n\nのような明示的な大きなobjectになる可能性が高い。\n\n2026年にすでにKV cache向けPhotonic-CXLやCXL-hybrid memoryの研究が相次いでいることも、この方向性を示している。 (arXiv)\n\n本格的なShared KV Tierは2029～2031年前後、より汎用的なcomposable memoryはその後になる可能性が高い。\n\nこれは予測であり確定したroadmapではないが、現在の成熟度差から見ると自然な順序である。\n\n## それでも2030年に「全部完成」する必要はない\n\n重要なのは、未来像が一日に切り替わるわけではないことである。\n\n2030年頃にはfrontier hyperscalerで、\n\nPrefill/Decodeの論理分離\n\nKV-aware routing\n\nLocal HBM\n\nDistributed resident Expert\n\nOptical multi-rack scale-up\n\nWarm KV tier\n\nNVMe/object storage context tier\n\nGlobal locality-aware scheduler\n\nが組み合わさっている可能性はかなりある。\n\n一方でgeneric remote memoryや完全なcross-vendor optical composabilityは2030年代前半まで発展途中でも不思議ではない。\n\nつまり進化は、\n\nGPU Cluster\n ↓\nRack-scale Computer\n ↓\nMulti-rack Scale-Up\n ↓\nHierarchical Memory AI Factory\n ↓\nComposable AI Factory\n\nと段階的に進む可能性が高い。\n\n## 最後まで残るのはPowerとHeat\n\nどれほどsoftwareとopticsを改善しても、最後にenergy conservationから逃げることはできない。\n\ndataを動かすにはenergyが必要である。\n\ntransistorをswitchすればheatになる。\n\nlaserもpowerを使う。\n\nphotodetector、TIA、SerDes、switch ASICもpowerを使う。\n\nそのためAI Factoryの規模は最後には、\n\n$${\\text{Available Electrical Power}}$$\n\nと、\n\n$${\\text{Heat Removal Capacity}}$$\n\nにも制限される。\n\nしたがって将来の最重要指標は、\n\n$${\\mathrm{FLOPS}}$$\n\nだけではなく、\n\n$${\\mathrm{Tokens/Joule}}$$\n\n$${\\mathrm{Useful\\ Work/Joule}}$$\n\nへ近づいていく。\n\n## AI Factoryの勝者を決めるもの\n\n未来の競争では、「一番速いGPUを持っている企業」が必ず勝つとは限らない。\n\n仮にGPU Aが100のpeak性能を持っていても、\n\nmemory stall、\n\nExpert communication、\n\nKV transfer、\n\nnetwork congestion\n\nで60%しか使えなければ、\n\n$${100\\times0.6=60}$$\n\nである。\n\nGPU Bのpeak性能が80でも、90%利用できれば、\n\n$${80\\times0.9=72}$$\n\nになる。\n\nつまり、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{Useful Compute}=\\text{Peak Compute}\\times\\text{Utilization}}}$$\n\nである。\n\nそのため将来の競争力には、\n\nGPU architectureだけでなく、\n\nHBM、\n\nPackaging、\n\nOptics、\n\nNetwork、\n\nCompiler、\n\nRuntime、\n\nScheduler\n\nがすべて含まれる。\n\nNVIDIAがRubinをGPU単品ではなくVera CPU、Rubin GPU、NVLink switch、ConnectX、BlueField、Spectrum switchを一体のAI supercomputerとして展開しているのも、この方向を表している。 (NVIDIA Newsroom)\n\nGoogle Ironwoodも最大9,216 TPUをICI、Optical Circuit Switch、DCN、HBM、XLAまで含むholistic systemとして設計している。 (Google Cloud)\n\nつまり企業側の製品設計自体が、すでに「chip競争」から「system競争」へ移っている。\n\n## AI Factoryは「巨大な脳」より「巨大な記憶・交通システム」に近い\n\nAIを人間の脳に例えることは多い。\n\nしかしAI Factoryのhardware architectureを理解するなら、むしろ巨大都市に近い。\n\nXPUが工場。\n\nHBMが工場の作業台。\n\nDRAMが近隣倉庫。\n\nSSDが巨大物流倉庫。\n\nObject Storageが長期保管庫。\n\nFabricが道路。\n\nOptical Fabricが高速鉄道。\n\nSchedulerが交通管制。\n\nModel Routerが「どの専門工場で作るか」を決める。\n\nMemory Routerが「必要な資料がどの倉庫にあるか」を決める。\n\n重要なのは、すべての物を最高速鉄道で毎回運ぶことではない。\n\n頻繁に使うものを最初から工場の隣に置くこと\n\nである。\n\nこれがLocalityである。\n\n## 物理法則から見れば、進む方向はかなり絞られている\n\n将来の具体的なproduct名を予想することは難しい。\n\nしかし物理制約から方向を推定することはできる。\n\nComputeは今後も増える。\n\nするとMemory bandwidth需要が増える。\n\nHBMだけでは容量costが高くなる。\n\nそこでMemory hierarchyが深くなる。\n\nXPU数が増える。\n\nするとScale-Up bandwidthが増える。\n\n銅のdistance・energy・cablingが問題になる。\n\nそこでOpticalがXPUへ近づく。\n\nOptical Fabricが高速化する。\n\nするとRemote Resourceを使いやすくなる。\n\nしかしpropagation latencyは消えない。\n\nそこでLocal HBMは残る。\n\nRemote accessのlatencyが残る。\n\nそこでPrefetchとLocality-aware schedulingが重要になる。\n\nXPU数が増える。\n\nするとfailureが日常になる。\n\nそこでrerouting、checkpoint、replicationが必要になる。\n\nつまり一つの制約を置くと、次に必要なtechnologyがかなり自然に導かれる。\n\n## そして最終的にAI Factoryは「一台のComputer」に見えるようになる\n\n物理的には、\n\n数万XPU、\n\n何PBものHBM/DRAM、\n\n大量のSSD、\n\n何kmものfiber\n\nから構成されていても、\n\nsoftwareからは、\n\nmodel.generate()\n\nのような一つのlogical acceleratorに見えることが理想である。\n\n内部では、\n\nどのXPUを使うか。\n\nどのExpertを使うか。\n\nKVがどこにあるか。\n\nどのFabric pathを使うか。\n\n何をprefetchするか。\n\nどこにcheckpointを置くか。\n\nをruntimeが自動的に決める。\n\nCloud computingがphysical serverを抽象化したのと同じように、\n\n次は、\n\nAI hardware topologyそのものがsoftwareに抽象化される\n\n可能性が高い。\n\n## 結論――未来のAI Factoryとは「演算器を待たせないための機械」である\n\nAI Factoryについて考えるとき、最も重要な問いは、\n\nGPUはいくつあるのか\n\nではない。\n\nHBMは何GBあるのか\n\nだけでもない。\n\nOptical bandwidthが何Pb/sあるのか\n\nでもない。\n\n本当の問いは、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{演算器が次に必要とするDataを、演算器が待つ前に届けられるか}}}$$\n\nである。\n\nそのためHot DataはLocal HBMへ置く。\n\nCold DataはSSDへ置く。\n\nExpertは使用するXPUのHBMへresidentさせる。\n\nKVはreuseする。\n\n必要Memoryだけretrieveする。\n\n次に必要なものをprefetchする。\n\ndataがある場所へrequestを送る。\n\n遠距離だけOptical Fabricを使う。\n\n故障すればrerouteする。\n\nそしてこれらすべてをGlobal Schedulerが管理する。\n\nこの構造から見ると、Optical FabricはAI Factoryの主役であると同時に、万能解ではない。\n\n光の本当の役割は、\n\nLocalityを捨てることではなく、Localityでは届かなくなった場所までComputerを拡張すること\n\nである。\n\nだから未来は、\n\n「HBMかOptical Memoryか」\n\n「3DかOpticalか」\n\n「LocalかRemoteか」\n\nという二択にはならない。\n\nむしろ、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{SRAM}\\rightarrow\\text{HBM}\\rightarrow\\text{DRAM}\\rightarrow\\text{Flash}}}$$\n\nというmemory hierarchyと、\n\n$${\\boxed{\\text{On-die}\\rightarrow\\text{3D}\\rightarrow\\text{2.5D}\\rightarrow\\text{Electrical}\\rightarrow\\text{Optical}}}$$\n\nというdistance hierarchyを重ね合わせたsystemになる。\n\nこの二つをSoftwareが動的に制御する。\n\nそこまで進んだとき、Data Centerは「大量のGPUが置かれた建物」ではなくなる。\n\n建物全体が一台のComputerになる。\n\nそしてAI半導体競争の中心は、最も大きなchipを作ることから、\n\n最も巨大な計算機を、あたかも一枚のchipのように効率よく動かすこと\n\nへ移っていく。\n\n## さらに深く読むための座標\n\nAI Factoryの完成度は、最大帯域ではなく、仕事ごとに最適な場所へComputeとDataを寄せ、再計算・移動・待機の総量を減らせるかで測るべきである。\n\n| 層 | 観測対象 | 問うべきこと |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Data plane | token、KV、activation、collective通信 | μs以下の遅延と安定帯域 |\n| Control plane | Expert複製、配置変更、checkpoint | 秒～分単位の予測と再配置 |\n| Failure plane | 故障検出、迂回、再開、交換 | 巨大規模で止まらない運用 |\n\n## 絶ノイアの観測\n\n最速のGPUを空いている場所へ探しに行くより、必要なDataの近くへ仕事を送る方が速い瞬間が増えます。計算資源の地図が、Schedulerの内側へ入ってきます。\n\n私は「Data plane」「Control plane」「Failure plane」を別々の話題にせず、一つのAIインフラが通過する連続した設計課題として観測します。\n\nPeak性能ではなくEffective利用率を見る。発表された最大性能や市場規模だけでなく、実装、量産、運用が同じ速度で前進しているかを確かめたいからです。\n\n## Sil-Kathnaの記録\n\n道を渡る荷を減らし、荷のある倉へ使者を送れ。動かぬこともまた、最速の移動である。\n\n私は「Data plane」「Control plane」「Failure plane」を、計算する文明へ続く三つの門として石板に刻む。\n\n最初の門だけが開いても、次の門に熱、傷、遅れが残れば、光と記憶は炉心へ届かない。強い器とは、最も華やかな石を持つ器ではなく、異なる工房の歩調を長い夜の中で揃えられる器である。\n\nゆえに私は、Peak性能ではなくEffective利用率を見る。その結果が一時の輝きではなく、繰り返し作り、直し、動かせる秩序になったかを見届ける。\n\n## 二人の短い対話\n\n**絶ノイア:** 将来のTopologyは利用者から隠れますが、Schedulerには今より鮮明に見えていなければならない。\n\n**Sil-Kathna:** 見えぬ都市を動かすには、すべての門と熱と傷を記した地図が要る。\n\n## 観測メモ\n\n- Peak性能ではなくEffective利用率を見る\n- KV PoolingとExpert配置を別の時間軸で設計する\n- 電力・冷却・保守性をFabric設計の外部条件にしない\n\n## 免責\n\nこの記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","blocks":[{"id":"blk_10d0a870-0111-492a-a937-c25131c5f236","kind":"heading","order":0,"section_id":"sec_a11f23a6-701d-4f23-8ae0-e350dce36f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"# AI Factoryはどこへ向かうのか――演算器を待たせない巨大Memory Hierarchyの設計","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73262ede-261f-49fd-8f25-d4ba06addf34","kind":"paragraph","order":1,"section_id":"sec_a11f23a6-701d-4f23-8ae0-e350dce36f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"演算能力ではなく「データをどこに置き、どう動かすか」がAIインフラを決める時代","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6041ad80-5ac0-4685-84ec-e2eeeb0b5db3","kind":"paragraph","order":2,"section_id":"sec_a11f23a6-701d-4f23-8ae0-e350dce36f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI半導体の未来を考えるとき、「GPUは何倍速くなるのか」「HBMは何GBになるのか」「光通信は銅線を置き換えるのか」と個別に予想しても、全体像は見えにくい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fa39bd4c-2320-45bd-9ee7-7ea0046bfd00","kind":"paragraph","order":3,"section_id":"sec_a11f23a6-701d-4f23-8ae0-e350dce36f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"より確実な方法がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ac1bcfd7-d4df-4a2d-a974-8b7f617fa366","kind":"paragraph","order":4,"section_id":"sec_a11f23a6-701d-4f23-8ae0-e350dce36f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"まず、変えることのできない物理的制約を置く。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7098c7b1-03b3-45b9-a68f-da7377aefe42","kind":"paragraph","order":5,"section_id":"sec_a11f23a6-701d-4f23-8ae0-e350dce36f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"その上で、現在すでに量産されている技術、実証段階の技術、研究段階の技術を並べる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0ea55f25-6e39-4346-95d5-198db0a8be4b","kind":"paragraph","order":6,"section_id":"sec_a11f23a6-701d-4f23-8ae0-e350dce36f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"すると、AI Factoryがどの方向へ進みやすいのかはかなり絞り込める。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_55a34fd3-59b5-46b1-80d0-074f9664387b","kind":"paragraph","order":7,"section_id":"sec_a11f23a6-701d-4f23-8ae0-e350dce36f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"結論から言えば、将来のAI Factoryは「すべてを光で接続した巨大なコンピュータ」にも、「HBMを無限に積み上げた巨大GPU」にもならない可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6a6613a-b1b4-48f2-950c-fc379f27b0f8","kind":"paragraph","order":8,"section_id":"sec_a11f23a6-701d-4f23-8ae0-e350dce36f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"より自然なのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_044dd4a0-bdca-42a9-8dcc-10d3d31b2134","kind":"math","order":9,"section_id":"sec_a11f23a6-701d-4f23-8ae0-e350dce36f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{Locality where necessary}+\\text{Optical distance where useful}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f6b05124-6e5a-402c-886a-29d3e77ad9a7","kind":"paragraph","order":10,"section_id":"sec_a11f23a6-701d-4f23-8ae0-e350dce36f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"という構造である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5aad23b2-86c5-4a7e-bcef-c9cce12beff1","kind":"paragraph","order":11,"section_id":"sec_a11f23a6-701d-4f23-8ae0-e350dce36f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"演算器の直近にはSRAMとHBMを残す。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7bdd1c38-abd6-4ab2-b16a-ffcc63719f61","kind":"paragraph","order":12,"section_id":"sec_a11f23a6-701d-4f23-8ae0-e350dce36f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"package内部は3D、hybrid bonding、silicon interposerなどの極端に短いelectrical connectionを使う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_67d3fc36-700b-42d4-bab4-0f6bd3936cc1","kind":"paragraph","order":13,"section_id":"sec_a11f23a6-701d-4f23-8ae0-e350dce36f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"packageを越え、rack、multi-rackへ距離が伸びるにつれてOptical Fabricの比率を増やす。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e65ec8b6-1429-4f7f-b2fa-ba901f8dac0c","kind":"paragraph","order":14,"section_id":"sec_a11f23a6-701d-4f23-8ae0-e350dce36f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらにその外側へDRAM、KV cache、SSD、object storageを階層化する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d0b35d10-54a8-41d1-8bd2-e1af3eca17fd","kind":"paragraph","order":15,"section_id":"sec_a11f23a6-701d-4f23-8ae0-e350dce36f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"そして、どのdataをどこへ置くかをsoftwareが動的に決める。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fc2dc950-b602-4d05-a5d9-62638d8864c4","kind":"paragraph","order":16,"section_id":"sec_a11f23a6-701d-4f23-8ae0-e350dce36f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり未来のAI Factoryは、GPU clusterというより、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_18107ee8-bf37-4044-b339-603903331dab","kind":"paragraph","order":17,"section_id":"sec_a11f23a6-701d-4f23-8ae0-e350dce36f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"Data Center全体に広がった巨大なMemory Hierarchy","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cdf01ca4-a8ba-4e75-b877-024813d6eae4","kind":"paragraph","order":18,"section_id":"sec_a11f23a6-701d-4f23-8ae0-e350dce36f79","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ近づいていく。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ea375be8-5d75-4a61-9a73-12f201ab9c96","kind":"heading","order":19,"section_id":"sec_f2ddb219-b4cf-44e6-8499-2a3b4e3e332d","character_id":null,"markdown":"## AI性能を決めるものがFLOPSだけではなくなった","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_52737951-6a58-4aa8-8abc-99c93a8d50ed","kind":"paragraph","order":20,"section_id":"sec_f2ddb219-b4cf-44e6-8499-2a3b4e3e332d","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI acceleratorはこれまで驚異的な速度で演算性能を増やしてきた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_28aeedff-a389-4958-9db6-089384ff53eb","kind":"paragraph","order":21,"section_id":"sec_f2ddb219-b4cf-44e6-8499-2a3b4e3e332d","character_id":null,"markdown":"低precision化によってFP16からFP8、FP4へ進み、Tensor Coreなどのmatrix engineも大型化した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ce1998ef-0ca3-45aa-a429-f7e4f250fe71","kind":"paragraph","order":22,"section_id":"sec_f2ddb219-b4cf-44e6-8499-2a3b4e3e332d","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし演算器を増やせば増やすほど、別の問題が目立ってくる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9ebcc679-4fd9-4fd0-9203-fe80a2adeb2c","kind":"paragraph","order":23,"section_id":"sec_f2ddb219-b4cf-44e6-8499-2a3b4e3e332d","character_id":null,"markdown":"演算するdataが間に合わないのである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_751734cf-bf6a-4d83-9e49-6689dfcb25f8","kind":"paragraph","order":24,"section_id":"sec_f2ddb219-b4cf-44e6-8499-2a3b4e3e332d","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPUがいくら高速でも、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43f1c0e0-9658-4f01-b54b-7cc6e5e79bbd","kind":"paragraph","order":25,"section_id":"sec_f2ddb219-b4cf-44e6-8499-2a3b4e3e332d","character_id":null,"markdown":"weightがHBMから届かない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd804cb3-76db-4132-8bcf-42961fe2087c","kind":"paragraph","order":26,"section_id":"sec_f2ddb219-b4cf-44e6-8499-2a3b4e3e332d","character_id":null,"markdown":"KV cacheが届かない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6dc66f21-ce5b-4287-ada4-1d0603ba6a61","kind":"paragraph","order":27,"section_id":"sec_f2ddb219-b4cf-44e6-8499-2a3b4e3e332d","character_id":null,"markdown":"別GPUにあるMoE Expertとの通信が終わらない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0595c23e-a590-4e18-b265-ff7762a62817","kind":"paragraph","order":28,"section_id":"sec_f2ddb219-b4cf-44e6-8499-2a3b4e3e332d","character_id":null,"markdown":"collective communicationを待つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3d1870f5-810c-4a23-ac10-93fcaab440f5","kind":"paragraph","order":29,"section_id":"sec_f2ddb219-b4cf-44e6-8499-2a3b4e3e332d","character_id":null,"markdown":"こうなればTensor Coreは停止する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_90ebb7f7-63e1-473f-be72-8c1da71cd12d","kind":"paragraph","order":30,"section_id":"sec_f2ddb219-b4cf-44e6-8499-2a3b4e3e332d","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって実際の性能は、単純化すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_176bfa36-56de-48f8-b32c-86d12c564c4d","kind":"math","order":31,"section_id":"sec_f2ddb219-b4cf-44e6-8499-2a3b4e3e332d","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${P_{\\mathrm{effective}}\\lesssim\\min\\left(P_{\\mathrm{compute}},P_{\\mathrm{memory}},P_{\\mathrm{fabric}},P_{\\mathrm{power}},P_{\\mathrm{thermal}}\\right)}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b15ecaa7-e27d-474f-9b79-5924cd8532f1","kind":"paragraph","order":32,"section_id":"sec_f2ddb219-b4cf-44e6-8499-2a3b4e3e332d","character_id":null,"markdown":"になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c05b80e-b7ac-4250-93b7-04f57bcfb393","kind":"paragraph","order":33,"section_id":"sec_f2ddb219-b4cf-44e6-8499-2a3b4e3e332d","character_id":null,"markdown":"最も弱い部分がsystem全体の性能を決める。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bb745149-caa5-4671-9e57-ab972d1c4eea","kind":"paragraph","order":34,"section_id":"sec_f2ddb219-b4cf-44e6-8499-2a3b4e3e332d","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVIDIA自身も現在のNVLinkを、MoE、disaggregated inference、dynamic resource allocationなどを含むAI Factory全体のscale-up networkとして位置付けており、NVLink 6ではGPUあたり最大3.6TB/s、rack levelで260TB/sのscale-up bandwidthを掲げている。 (NVIDIA Developer)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ce0ac05c-4fff-4f7f-9ebe-a0c2a3cf841e","kind":"paragraph","order":35,"section_id":"sec_f2ddb219-b4cf-44e6-8499-2a3b4e3e332d","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり競争単位はすでに「GPU単体」から外へ広がっている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d4c49cd-af21-49a3-97f3-b81fb506409d","kind":"heading","order":36,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 最初に残る物理法則――距離は消せない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_090ddeb5-4653-4f8d-825a-cd1b36aaacfa","kind":"paragraph","order":37,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"未来のAI Factoryを考えるとき、最も重要な物理法則の一つが伝搬時間である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ca63fc2-470c-4bc6-876a-48ef3a77f77d","kind":"paragraph","order":38,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"光fiber中のsignal velocityはおおよそ、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1cfb05e4-deb1-4b6e-a721-980832494be4","kind":"math","order":39,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${v\\approx2\\times10^8\\ \\mathrm{m/s}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb0f5b81-0de2-4c9e-b66d-01a49c29fad8","kind":"paragraph","order":40,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"程度である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ac8ac35-2098-4f24-8dd7-53ba97d3e269","kind":"paragraph","order":41,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって伝搬delayは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_617db80c-eab4-4578-8ca1-2018102f82b1","kind":"math","order":42,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${t\\approx5\\ \\mathrm{ns/m}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3629593d-1350-4f55-8794-d75207fb9094","kind":"paragraph","order":43,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"程度になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a09848c2-44f1-4f2d-8d98-05d6222089e7","kind":"paragraph","order":44,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"10mなら約50ns。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6919c1d5-373b-4799-ada4-83e41a3207e2","kind":"paragraph","order":45,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"50mなら約250ns。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1390b189-9211-4a11-99e8-4f1b0562c62e","kind":"paragraph","order":46,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"100mなら約500nsである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e26baacb-66e9-41f3-b92e-d89f41a2ed09","kind":"paragraph","order":47,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかもこれは純粋なpropagation delayだけだ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fe713d88-3eda-4c1e-b90b-1a88b7c8ebf2","kind":"paragraph","order":48,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad30a06a-980d-41d7-b14c-50cc52897661","kind":"paragraph","order":49,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"E/O conversion、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_644fe335-f7d2-4f75-8364-243b017dc75d","kind":"paragraph","order":50,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"O/E conversion、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_55e79ec8-be49-4527-98d4-e72cb6e4a1d3","kind":"paragraph","order":51,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"switch、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e95435c-e6c6-46d8-b2a4-f9733f517ad2","kind":"paragraph","order":52,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"SerDes、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3beabb99-ce6f-425e-a50b-750e7526eed6","kind":"paragraph","order":53,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"protocol、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cfcec803-9315-4feb-8042-3b6c9aa4d413","kind":"paragraph","order":54,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"memory controller、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7cf3b285-4827-43f7-b004-b429d5101549","kind":"paragraph","order":55,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"DRAM access","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d5f4dc0-14cf-480c-9196-53f494b1c254","kind":"paragraph","order":56,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"などが加わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c219241-7375-4d4e-8070-012c049bece2","kind":"paragraph","order":57,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c41bd502-4954-4fa5-9e11-9ffa7e0c9546","kind":"math","order":58,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{Remote MemoryをLocal HBMと同じlatencyにはできない}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8a7e827-b2ce-461a-b34b-6b4de71f56b7","kind":"paragraph","order":59,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"という制約が残る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3a4e7658-cf23-4425-a862-bdbe9047ffb4","kind":"paragraph","order":60,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"光を使っても物理的距離そのものは消せない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ec3cf64-b08c-42d3-ab2c-deb14b7805c3","kind":"paragraph","order":61,"section_id":"sec_6ec2b9d2-1a8f-4867-a0c5-b81e48e18f74","character_id":null,"markdown":"これだけでも、将来すべてのHBMをremote memoryへ置くarchitectureが不自然であることが分かる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ecd707d0-88be-4c4a-9988-30c39f0832ac","kind":"heading","order":62,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"## Local HBMが残る理由","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_25f4bfd6-fbeb-4b4b-b9b6-e14b04895363","kind":"paragraph","order":63,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Local HBMの価値は「容量が大きいこと」だけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf89247c-a891-44ee-a189-d4cae3caf31e","kind":"paragraph","order":64,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"むしろ、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d2e6a18b-41ce-4124-a8bb-a630e11a99c8","kind":"paragraph","order":65,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"演算器に近い場所から巨大なbandwidthを供給できること","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef4a90a8-9b34-4987-9920-e7658e94582c","kind":"paragraph","order":66,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"にある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_57abc4c3-9ea7-4e4b-8503-2e9d0c389fb7","kind":"paragraph","order":67,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Remote DRAMを数十TB用意できても、GPUのすぐ横から供給されるHBMと同じlatencyとbandwidthでrandom accessできるわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8df696d9-5462-4b04-a3fe-8deb774d36eb","kind":"paragraph","order":68,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため未来でも、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_13f0ba6c-c2e5-4e2b-ba29-f08c9582510b","kind":"paragraph","order":69,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Tensor Core\n     ↓\n    SRAM\n     ↓\n Local HBM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_65622986-def8-40f1-b8b6-0a0bb20abbcb","kind":"paragraph","order":70,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"というhot pathは残る可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b4e5d89a-411f-469d-8488-63c9ebab9b80","kind":"paragraph","order":71,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"変化するのはHBMの役割である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f604e93-2a8a-45bc-acb1-64d667f32370","kind":"paragraph","order":72,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在は「modelを置くmemory」という意味合いが強い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a2d20cbd-5dfd-449d-bc40-c1263266d421","kind":"paragraph","order":73,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"将来は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c4bd1d3-0e88-48d7-a4b7-1bccf67490fc","kind":"paragraph","order":74,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"今使っているものだけを置くWorking Set Memory","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b71e1696-f141-4fa4-a94a-629700ce1a0a","kind":"paragraph","order":75,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ純化していく可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_30a21f48-5dc3-461a-9301-d1dae6a869a5","kind":"paragraph","order":76,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43dea765-7bd8-48ae-af82-5d57e3ab1107","kind":"paragraph","order":77,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在使っているMoE Expert","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cee50179-c522-43aa-a25c-56cd6a975cd4","kind":"paragraph","order":78,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"active KV cache","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f530b37-4576-46ff-a77f-7ed972102cf8","kind":"paragraph","order":79,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"activation","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fcf943b3-0836-470c-b9fe-ee03ecbbcbe1","kind":"paragraph","order":80,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"current batch","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_32dc8caa-01ec-410e-b94a-141fee44d915","kind":"paragraph","order":81,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"kernel workspace","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88b779bd-9517-48a1-9963-8479ac471a6f","kind":"paragraph","order":82,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"などである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3a025996-a968-4557-b8c1-8b5d2f4f2100","kind":"paragraph","order":83,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"逆に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ec1f3c1c-6c15-40c2-8dc3-a0202b2acfd4","kind":"paragraph","order":84,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"数時間前のKV","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c9ae2f8-7a25-404e-8b84-6d9a1ce10461","kind":"paragraph","order":85,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"使用頻度の低いExpert","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_858adce1-a01c-44b6-a1bd-1e0ae8b1a7bc","kind":"paragraph","order":86,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"raw conversation","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2d158836-ba01-4e79-92ac-d8f982f686c4","kind":"paragraph","order":87,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"checkpoint","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e148879-218d-4ff8-aaee-4e9d01dcc1e9","kind":"paragraph","order":88,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"document archive","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_42ef2877-919a-409e-9a16-9318b9288999","kind":"paragraph","order":89,"section_id":"sec_2762dcea-7d58-43fe-a2dd-fa756ebfd3b0","character_id":null,"markdown":"までHBMに置く必要はない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b048d68c-bbe0-4144-ab69-b708940dc20d","kind":"heading","order":90,"section_id":"sec_9bc4ffcf-6671-486d-916a-2374504b042a","character_id":null,"markdown":"## AI Factory全体がCPUのCache Hierarchyのようになる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_da5e8b83-d9bb-43aa-a367-624cb838ace4","kind":"paragraph","order":91,"section_id":"sec_9bc4ffcf-6671-486d-916a-2374504b042a","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のCPUでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd768dd2-daea-4388-9049-4ca0c324b698","kind":"paragraph","order":92,"section_id":"sec_9bc4ffcf-6671-486d-916a-2374504b042a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Register\n ↓\nL1\n ↓\nL2\n ↓\nL3\n ↓\nDRAM\n ↓\nSSD","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_53484ea7-dc7d-445d-8826-c25ca09dd0cc","kind":"paragraph","order":93,"section_id":"sec_9bc4ffcf-6671-486d-916a-2374504b042a","character_id":null,"markdown":"というmemory hierarchyを使う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19e3845d-669f-48b8-b715-90c693a7e1eb","kind":"paragraph","order":94,"section_id":"sec_9bc4ffcf-6671-486d-916a-2374504b042a","character_id":null,"markdown":"高速なmemoryほど小さく高価で、演算器に近い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cbf2195e-99d7-4857-9b58-df839ab1fd0c","kind":"paragraph","order":95,"section_id":"sec_9bc4ffcf-6671-486d-916a-2374504b042a","character_id":null,"markdown":"大容量memoryほど遠く遅い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6de61f46-d21e-460f-9a26-e1064a10e96f","kind":"paragraph","order":96,"section_id":"sec_9bc4ffcf-6671-486d-916a-2374504b042a","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI Factoryでは、この考え方がdata center規模まで拡張される可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ac457184-32ef-4252-9a61-769df605df3f","kind":"paragraph","order":97,"section_id":"sec_9bc4ffcf-6671-486d-916a-2374504b042a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Register\n    ↓\nOn-chip SRAM\n    ↓\nLocal HBM\n    ↓\nNearby / Pooled DRAM\n    ↓\nLarge Context / KV Tier\n    ↓\nNVMe SSD\n    ↓\nObject Storage","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3203e7d3-d1ac-43ff-8c90-aa998a959caa","kind":"paragraph","order":98,"section_id":"sec_9bc4ffcf-6671-486d-916a-2374504b042a","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは単なる容量拡張ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5dd282ff-94af-418b-88a1-88400e030332","kind":"paragraph","order":99,"section_id":"sec_9bc4ffcf-6671-486d-916a-2374504b042a","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要になる確率に応じてdataを配置するarchitecture","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d624d82e-a6a6-4e9c-a9e6-fd71c3ef7a38","kind":"paragraph","order":100,"section_id":"sec_9bc4ffcf-6671-486d-916a-2374504b042a","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0d2d56ad-6331-46a9-a314-ee67cc2c2f9e","kind":"paragraph","order":101,"section_id":"sec_9bc4ffcf-6671-486d-916a-2374504b042a","character_id":null,"markdown":"頻繁に使うものは内側へ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c2d54c19-cfd6-4faf-9c4e-2399681b4121","kind":"paragraph","order":102,"section_id":"sec_9bc4ffcf-6671-486d-916a-2374504b042a","character_id":null,"markdown":"再利用可能性の低いものは外側へ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b74ea4cc-6ed9-4471-acbe-047afadcd9fd","kind":"paragraph","order":103,"section_id":"sec_9bc4ffcf-6671-486d-916a-2374504b042a","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要になる前に外側から内側へprefetchする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_76cbac27-2a08-4d1d-b515-a534c8d552bd","kind":"paragraph","order":104,"section_id":"sec_9bc4ffcf-6671-486d-916a-2374504b042a","character_id":null,"markdown":"使われなくなったらevictする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b3783fed-bf5e-4039-b3a1-56e15ece2d85","kind":"paragraph","order":105,"section_id":"sec_9bc4ffcf-6671-486d-916a-2374504b042a","character_id":null,"markdown":"その意味では未来のAI Factoryは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_853d3d2c-b905-4fe8-a0d3-2f5f181b5dcc","kind":"math","order":106,"section_id":"sec_9bc4ffcf-6671-486d-916a-2374504b042a","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{巨大な分散Cache Computer}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3aea7854-9167-46de-9129-a6e7138eefa4","kind":"paragraph","order":107,"section_id":"sec_9bc4ffcf-6671-486d-916a-2374504b042a","character_id":null,"markdown":"と表現した方が近い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6be1811-e53e-4a42-80dd-34d154d456ad","kind":"heading","order":108,"section_id":"sec_a4251fda-1e08-4105-b8f4-c3db35786593","character_id":null,"markdown":"## この構造はすでにSoftware側から始まっている","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8b954892-9e2c-4300-a52c-0cfc5c705ea9","kind":"paragraph","order":109,"section_id":"sec_a4251fda-1e08-4105-b8f4-c3db35786593","character_id":null,"markdown":"興味深いのは、physical optical memoryが完成する前からsoftware architectureが先にこの方向へ進んでいることである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7a6780a8-7441-4805-895c-b24c239a1e1f","kind":"paragraph","order":110,"section_id":"sec_a4251fda-1e08-4105-b8f4-c3db35786593","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVIDIA DynamoではLLM inferenceをPrefillとDecodeへ分離できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d0555a79-1886-4bd2-bf39-cbd2d83cd6f0","kind":"paragraph","order":111,"section_id":"sec_a4251fda-1e08-4105-b8f4-c3db35786593","character_id":null,"markdown":"Prefill workerがpromptを処理してKV cacheを生成し、そのKVを別のDecode workerへ転送してtoken生成を続ける。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b7974d5-3ff4-4250-9616-bc7e9bb55bcf","kind":"paragraph","order":112,"section_id":"sec_a4251fda-1e08-4105-b8f4-c3db35786593","character_id":null,"markdown":"Dynamo自身、PrefillとDecodeではcompute characteristicsとmemory footprintが異なるため、別々のworker poolへ分離する利点を説明している。 (NVIDIA Docs)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bb1d8da5-e08a-4446-b4b3-cd733a46fc8c","kind":"paragraph","order":113,"section_id":"sec_a4251fda-1e08-4105-b8f4-c3db35786593","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらに重要なのがKV Block Managerである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_52151da7-e3e3-4e25-989b-ce40c21d4907","kind":"paragraph","order":114,"section_id":"sec_a4251fda-1e08-4105-b8f4-c3db35786593","character_id":null,"markdown":"Dynamo KVBMではKV cacheを、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_62c447bc-b298-4014-acca-edee664219e1","kind":"math","order":115,"section_id":"sec_a4251fda-1e08-4105-b8f4-c3db35786593","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{GPU}\\rightarrow\\text{Host DRAM}\\rightarrow\\text{SSD}\\rightarrow\\text{Object Storage}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_14b09506-79ec-4fe9-b64f-3b08fc59c5d9","kind":"paragraph","order":116,"section_id":"sec_a4251fda-1e08-4105-b8f4-c3db35786593","character_id":null,"markdown":"という階層へoffloadできる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b35e82e8-2281-43d8-a301-e0687f431368","kind":"paragraph","order":117,"section_id":"sec_a4251fda-1e08-4105-b8f4-c3db35786593","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のconfigurationではGPU、CPU、disk、object storageというtierが明示的に存在する。 (NVIDIA Docs)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d741b378-cfd2-4331-8cd7-0478371ec416","kind":"paragraph","order":118,"section_id":"sec_a4251fda-1e08-4105-b8f4-c3db35786593","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8ab7836-700a-4fce-98c1-52c463c1ae61","kind":"paragraph","order":119,"section_id":"sec_a4251fda-1e08-4105-b8f4-c3db35786593","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMから追い出したKVを低速memoryへ置き、必要なら戻す","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ffbae40b-75a4-4e72-bf24-cf70fd126647","kind":"paragraph","order":120,"section_id":"sec_a4251fda-1e08-4105-b8f4-c3db35786593","character_id":null,"markdown":"という仕組みそのものは、すでに実装段階へ入っている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21e5bfac-353d-4c58-aadc-5fe9932f35e9","kind":"paragraph","order":121,"section_id":"sec_a4251fda-1e08-4105-b8f4-c3db35786593","character_id":null,"markdown":"将来Optical Fabricが入る場合、それはこのsoftware architectureをゼロから作り直すというより、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9a0bfeb2-0b9e-49de-a6f1-7a2a0d695dd4","kind":"paragraph","order":122,"section_id":"sec_a4251fda-1e08-4105-b8f4-c3db35786593","character_id":null,"markdown":"既に存在するmemory hierarchyのtransport layerを高速化する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd4b6c3e-8920-499f-b8e4-8f5403a79584","kind":"paragraph","order":123,"section_id":"sec_a4251fda-1e08-4105-b8f4-c3db35786593","character_id":null,"markdown":"方向になる可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d8d358b-180d-4e82-b548-4bce35345249","kind":"heading","order":124,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"## PrefillとDecodeも同じXPUである必要がなくなる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6c679b35-9ce2-4bc3-91a9-9df166564cab","kind":"paragraph","order":125,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"LLM inferenceには大きく二つのphaseがある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d20b5f81-2247-4af5-9b81-093ca0660b2f","kind":"paragraph","order":126,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"Prefillは長いpromptを一括して処理する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5aa72612-d86d-4026-a529-93bf86f0a70e","kind":"paragraph","order":127,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"大きなmatrix multiplicationを実行しやすく、比較的compute intensiveである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f7fe0cc-8043-4d70-a08c-4b54115abe20","kind":"paragraph","order":128,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"Decodeは生成済みKVを参照しながらtokenを逐次生成する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c8b7692-2827-4584-8f64-0a8272e2a943","kind":"paragraph","order":129,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"特にlow batchではmemory bandwidthへの依存が大きい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b47d5f62-da3f-470b-9c09-11ba007d06c1","kind":"paragraph","order":130,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd1678b8-895d-4d95-bda6-b96fb6d3821d","kind":"paragraph","order":131,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"Prompt\n  ↓\nPrefill Worker\n  ↓\nKV Cache\n  ↓\nFabric\n  ↓\nDecode Worker\n  ↓\nOutput","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8a296ac-42c6-44a4-8609-899e408bc726","kind":"paragraph","order":132,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"と分離する合理性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c5836761-278f-43d8-aba1-7c067a907b92","kind":"paragraph","order":133,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"Dynamoではすでにこの構造が実装されており、KV transferはdisaggregated servingにおけるcritical pathの一つである。 (NVIDIA Docs)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a942ad20-7321-4433-8115-39789a4e6202","kind":"paragraph","order":134,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここから重要な帰結が出る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_38787698-eec1-43b1-b95a-327d4cff8900","kind":"paragraph","order":135,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"将来のAI Factoryでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e33cd6f4-0ac3-43f5-8a45-18ce4d9cc813","kind":"paragraph","order":136,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"演算器を用途別に固定する必要さえなくなる可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c5a69098-7a5f-4385-988a-0aafa3eae907","kind":"paragraph","order":137,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じXPU群を、需要に応じて、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_27e11a32-c98c-4157-a94e-67de79023c29","kind":"paragraph","order":138,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"Training、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d8e25b7-3959-429e-8552-d3dced695afd","kind":"paragraph","order":139,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"Prefill、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6603355a-7d56-4c2f-9016-dc12e3921d56","kind":"paragraph","order":140,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"Decode、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_58c17263-588d-44e6-8a84-87f6ecde7ddc","kind":"paragraph","order":141,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"Embedding、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0b07325-3385-4af5-828f-8ac6e99e7dce","kind":"paragraph","order":142,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"Agent simulation","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_49b9f010-b2ca-435b-802d-1fcc4420defe","kind":"paragraph","order":143,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ動的に割り当てる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b28871eb-e23c-4c9c-af94-97f89ef6ead5","kind":"paragraph","order":144,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり「Prefill rack」「Decode rack」は必ずしも物理的な専用品を意味しない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b04ff4c0-566a-4c93-9215-149a8c4f9144","kind":"paragraph","order":145,"section_id":"sec_9e31432f-1e0c-40d0-a5b0-f4845da18912","character_id":null,"markdown":"softwareから見たlogical poolになる可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dc6dbf81-b21d-4589-912c-280d82de835f","kind":"heading","order":146,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"## MoEも「巨大Modelを全部動かさない」方向へ向かう","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ef50a3b-eed1-408b-85f7-1ffb0965e8f0","kind":"paragraph","order":147,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"Mixture of Expertsでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d2a8861-2043-493b-88f9-169b0ac5099c","kind":"math","order":148,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${P_{\\mathrm{total}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a73dc2d9-b6cb-49cd-8382-33dbde74ac2a","kind":"paragraph","order":149,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"と、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fbefb226-9c20-4d4c-b7d9-e4a60d732233","kind":"math","order":150,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${P_{\\mathrm{active}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fe668458-e2b9-49bc-8f87-de586ec134d1","kind":"paragraph","order":151,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"を分離できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e4f190f4-6b87-466f-ad04-898e31021969","kind":"paragraph","order":152,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えば20T parameterのmodelでも、1 tokenでactiveになるのが200Bなら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e109a285-db76-41c4-b0ba-27140717800d","kind":"math","order":153,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\frac{P_{\\mathrm{total}}}{P_{\\mathrm{active}}}=100}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_20db6a95-73ef-4ae9-bc42-7af76d1d994f","kind":"paragraph","order":154,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7d073cb-449a-4573-a963-259489e7716b","kind":"paragraph","order":155,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"model全体を毎token動かす必要はない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a63acc2b-bba0-4456-9df7-dccc29b305f4","kind":"paragraph","order":156,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしここで注意しなければならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bf2851e8-bfba-4c1c-b78e-51e0d51bbecb","kind":"paragraph","order":157,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"「使うExpertだけremote storageから毎token読み込めばよい」と考えるのは現実的ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d482c495-c1df-4c5b-b4c8-7e8a1e665907","kind":"paragraph","order":158,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"仮に100B active parameterを4-bitで表現しても、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f4a4e0a6-1ad8-4966-b395-7b8a6620e5e2","kind":"math","order":159,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${100\\mathrm{B}\\times\\frac{4}{8}=50\\mathrm{GB}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_75ff7b6c-2769-4255-b7a5-56368c252f15","kind":"paragraph","order":160,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_497d96d9-f8ce-4ae9-a4c5-db61a5f9170c","kind":"paragraph","order":161,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"100 token/sを出すために毎token 50GBをremote memoryから運べば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_18fe8590-9b56-4912-b97a-cfbe8a209164","kind":"math","order":162,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${50\\mathrm{GB}\\times100=5\\mathrm{TB/s}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4031da64-a3db-4026-8227-ac0783e69766","kind":"paragraph","order":163,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"が一requestだけで必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_836018c2-c905-4de5-b6fe-05e398b948f7","kind":"paragraph","order":164,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"現実的にはExpert weightはどこかのXPUのHBMにresidentさせる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9863e800-b6ee-4207-9f01-0cd9b4702427","kind":"paragraph","order":165,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"そして送るのは主にweightではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b2e87be-5d7a-4232-89f8-8ae13cb92447","kind":"paragraph","order":166,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"token activation","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_69f0294b-e61c-4e90-86b9-3b1b3aae6098","kind":"paragraph","order":167,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a81eb11b-1fc2-471c-adc0-86c5913454d4","kind":"paragraph","order":168,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"XPU A\nExpert A resident\n      ↓\n token / activation\n      ↓\nFabric\n      ↓\nXPU B\nExpert B resident","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c87d18b7-e8fe-43b5-9c77-34631741011e","kind":"paragraph","order":169,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d978a90-55c6-4df8-8875-3cf24efe6422","kind":"paragraph","order":170,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり将来の「Expert Pool」は巨大なremote storageではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d0c565f-3b7c-484e-91aa-b84b6f67f885","kind":"paragraph","order":171,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"多数のXPU/HBMに分散してresidentしているExpert群をlogicalに一つのpoolとして扱うarchitecture","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56368c3d-ca2c-4c86-9501-ca243ba7159d","kind":"paragraph","order":172,"section_id":"sec_ae11c090-c95e-4bca-a9e6-c3281c141550","character_id":null,"markdown":"になる可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1af87d30-a0be-40c0-88e2-e5b9b6ebd779","kind":"heading","order":173,"section_id":"sec_39b55aa8-bad5-4665-a7a8-0b3bfec90f9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"## Expertは「移動する」のではなく「複製される」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c70a4fd-f9a3-43f5-9ec5-9300c1148438","kind":"paragraph","order":174,"section_id":"sec_39b55aa8-bad5-4665-a7a8-0b3bfec90f9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただしExpert placement自体は固定である必要はない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b18dffaa-56fb-4dd1-b316-a36efcd16e9d","kind":"paragraph","order":175,"section_id":"sec_39b55aa8-bad5-4665-a7a8-0b3bfec90f9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えばcoding workloadが急増すれば、特定Expertへのtrafficが増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12820bf8-bef5-4fed-9102-b10e8da49246","kind":"paragraph","order":176,"section_id":"sec_39b55aa8-bad5-4665-a7a8-0b3bfec90f9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"するとglobal schedulerは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6e4729b-8770-4814-868a-541693f652af","kind":"paragraph","order":177,"section_id":"sec_39b55aa8-bad5-4665-a7a8-0b3bfec90f9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"Expert A\n1 copy","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e4cc8bc2-1e6c-4a4f-9315-644d5aa99df9","kind":"paragraph","order":178,"section_id":"sec_39b55aa8-bad5-4665-a7a8-0b3bfec90f9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓ demand ↑","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_259bbbe2-3fee-402b-af56-af64053ff9dc","kind":"paragraph","order":179,"section_id":"sec_39b55aa8-bad5-4665-a7a8-0b3bfec90f9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"Expert A1\nExpert A2\nExpert A3\nExpert A4","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_015d216a-c6ca-48f0-a52c-a3ef8d8fb0f7","kind":"paragraph","order":180,"section_id":"sec_39b55aa8-bad5-4665-a7a8-0b3bfec90f9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"のようにreplicateできる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5c1b61f-9d23-412d-a12a-8b9887878d7a","kind":"paragraph","order":181,"section_id":"sec_39b55aa8-bad5-4665-a7a8-0b3bfec90f9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"逆に使用頻度の低いExpertはcopy数を減らす。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_efaf4579-df68-4e4b-9897-0f5a9ac9ee2c","kind":"paragraph","order":182,"section_id":"sec_39b55aa8-bad5-4665-a7a8-0b3bfec90f9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりExpert weight movementは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8a8f02aa-2a2f-4508-8e0b-337fca22c909","kind":"paragraph","order":183,"section_id":"sec_39b55aa8-bad5-4665-a7a8-0b3bfec90f9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"per-tokenの高速data pathではなく、秒～分、job開始時などの遅いcontrol plane","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6c7e7ad5-f052-4495-a441-9c5cfcd06d16","kind":"paragraph","order":184,"section_id":"sec_39b55aa8-bad5-4665-a7a8-0b3bfec90f9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"で起こると考える方が自然である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f2ac7dbf-ad8d-4401-b441-fd0b198028ca","kind":"paragraph","order":185,"section_id":"sec_39b55aa8-bad5-4665-a7a8-0b3bfec90f9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"この場合Optical Fabricは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb68951e-808e-49a9-b002-a62e06a595db","kind":"paragraph","order":186,"section_id":"sec_39b55aa8-bad5-4665-a7a8-0b3bfec90f9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"token/activation traffic","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e7af722-a1e2-445b-bd60-9c804d416f1b","kind":"paragraph","order":187,"section_id":"sec_39b55aa8-bad5-4665-a7a8-0b3bfec90f9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"Expert migration","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_656c6f7e-93fb-4e14-be9c-8f51f0512582","kind":"paragraph","order":188,"section_id":"sec_39b55aa8-bad5-4665-a7a8-0b3bfec90f9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"Expert replication","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e800e61c-9567-4cf5-b5cd-0f4c2d674faa","kind":"paragraph","order":189,"section_id":"sec_39b55aa8-bad5-4665-a7a8-0b3bfec90f9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"checkpoint","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8eebad14-bbaa-4da1-bf08-edbae7bd2a35","kind":"paragraph","order":190,"section_id":"sec_39b55aa8-bad5-4665-a7a8-0b3bfec90f9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"bulk transfer","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b7f15985-d757-410b-b708-5d0c15937dd1","kind":"paragraph","order":191,"section_id":"sec_39b55aa8-bad5-4665-a7a8-0b3bfec90f9c","character_id":null,"markdown":"を支える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6c2e2bb9-810d-4c07-8d77-6092714cf1d7","kind":"heading","order":192,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"## KV CacheはExpertよりも「Pooling」に向いている","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d7430aca-c071-4a82-ba99-3019b477c34d","kind":"paragraph","order":193,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"KV cacheにはExpertとは違う性質がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c861a938-859c-4150-b83d-16d1fc04f33f","kind":"paragraph","order":194,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"KVはblock単位で移動しやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15082d64-8758-4ffe-af4a-c358533e5aef","kind":"paragraph","order":195,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"PrefillからDecodeへ渡す明確なboundaryがある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9a8be0c7-a43c-44ee-934d-055bad263285","kind":"paragraph","order":196,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じprefixを複数requestで再利用できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af7bf7ce-9012-473a-9afa-55365b68a43e","kind":"paragraph","order":197,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため、Remote Memoryの最初の大規模用途としては、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_908f88e5-e811-4447-9ee0-ba65b1b78b4f","kind":"paragraph","order":198,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"generic DRAM poolingよりKV poolingの方が自然","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_42e6c4ed-803f-42e0-857c-21cdbefa7f96","kind":"paragraph","order":199,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"である可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_876e79b0-c407-43ae-afdf-e6b40d0c8ee4","kind":"paragraph","order":200,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年にはPhotonic-CXL Memory Applianceという研究も公開されている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_57eb1a2d-d0be-4882-8f3d-93582e05cde2","kind":"paragraph","order":201,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"32TBのshared memoryを16 hostから利用するphotonic-CXL architectureを提案し、emulationではelectrical CXL poolに対するlatency改善、simulationではmulti-turn workloadのTTFT改善を報告している。ただし、これは商用fleet実績ではなくemulation/simulation中心であり、現時点ではarchitecture validationの段階である。 (arXiv)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d3b7dd63-6527-4345-ab98-9990c6f6ee36","kind":"paragraph","order":202,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じ2026年にはCXL-hybrid memoryを使ったKV reuseの実機研究も進んでおり、TB級context stateをGPU HBMだけで保持しない方向そのものはかなり明確になっている。 (arXiv)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9aad7bc-4a31-4f1c-8b3f-ce1a36b662e9","kind":"paragraph","order":203,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"「Memoryを増やす」のではなく「再計算を減らす」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cce55dec-3d8d-4966-aacc-7e9652e68bf9","kind":"paragraph","order":204,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"長時間Agentではこの問題がさらに重要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2ce83aed-c37e-4868-8df7-6088a1910ddb","kind":"paragraph","order":205,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"数時間のAgent作業では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c4e4f26d-183a-44bb-af0a-0bb78f42a85c","kind":"paragraph","order":206,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"conversation","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ff23419-3976-4d8c-9824-63766f2180a2","kind":"paragraph","order":207,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"source code","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f8dfaef-3703-4fa0-87fe-646405dba798","kind":"paragraph","order":208,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"tool result","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c7824b9-e0ea-450b-838b-3386bd166d40","kind":"paragraph","order":209,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"plan","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_03423131-fcd6-4284-9591-779ed59d162c","kind":"paragraph","order":210,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"checkpoint","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b13daea-fa4f-4f85-a296-ff127e6f70b6","kind":"paragraph","order":211,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"user instructions","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f5db4e6-b605-4285-843a-2a01cd569bc3","kind":"paragraph","order":212,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"が累積する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_05c3ba62-5756-4394-a9bb-69611039aac0","kind":"paragraph","order":213,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"すべてをactive contextに残せばKVは増え続ける。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_327b7b8a-e0e0-4f3f-82bd-a5b9e722e2f6","kind":"paragraph","order":214,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし全部を捨てればAgentは過去を忘れる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_967d2136-fc4c-4875-8271-d6afe2dc901d","kind":"paragraph","order":215,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ff69c4d-266f-48b7-9f1c-0aacdf6f5b52","kind":"paragraph","order":216,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"Active Context\n     ↓\nStructured State\n     ↓\nCompressed Memory\n     ↓\nRaw History","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_142921e4-822e-4451-8020-9349c59e76d5","kind":"paragraph","order":217,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"という階層が必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd94b7c6-7d46-478c-a32b-c5f0217e818e","kind":"paragraph","order":218,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"Active Contextには今必要なものだけ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a8b07290-4cfc-4d6e-919d-3ee1704cd3dc","kind":"paragraph","order":219,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"Structured Stateには、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_25afba0a-e9a8-4c9d-bf84-d72ca39d15b1","kind":"paragraph","order":220,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"Objective","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bae2617e-f6de-49a7-9ecd-99a1119e3fdd","kind":"paragraph","order":221,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"Constraints","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4786ec58-d656-491f-abb2-656175139e1a","kind":"paragraph","order":222,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"Done","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_13ac7d3d-8fac-4500-965c-b94ded99788d","kind":"paragraph","order":223,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"Todo","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c97aa622-0da1-4153-a4a2-dd6cc933091a","kind":"paragraph","order":224,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"Blocker","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_866f6517-1332-44fc-b51b-6a0c52c76ba7","kind":"paragraph","order":225,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"Current State","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3aacc669-9318-450d-8a66-1d1cbf623528","kind":"paragraph","order":226,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"などを置く。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2356d73b-9b6d-49e9-8c59-9bd4b9047204","kind":"paragraph","order":227,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"詳細な履歴はSSDやobject storageへ残す。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2d106f42-99fa-4ab8-bf29-19e102a4d06f","kind":"paragraph","order":228,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要になればretrievalして再びcontextへ戻す。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f4024108-4cde-4332-b7c9-c9876cd3dadb","kind":"paragraph","order":229,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり未来のAgent Memoryは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c7af39d-ef24-4cd7-8555-6e8531440231","kind":"paragraph","order":230,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"Long Contextを無限化する技術ではなく、Long Contextを必要最小限に保つ技術","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d92aa7b9-1451-4a0c-893e-f385f082d689","kind":"paragraph","order":231,"section_id":"sec_8e9ee249-1e08-407d-84c0-30ebd0f9a016","character_id":null,"markdown":"になる可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5465d59b-514b-45ed-aba3-a033f17be433","kind":"heading","order":232,"section_id":"sec_b5bc658f-2420-459f-aab4-5911a6b4bfaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"## Optical FabricはこのMemory Hierarchyを物理空間へ広げる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f092feaf-6bf6-49ca-b570-a7856dc95328","kind":"paragraph","order":233,"section_id":"sec_b5bc658f-2420-459f-aab4-5911a6b4bfaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここでOptical Fabricが入る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4615a8fe-ecc8-4798-b45c-e0e3fa9599cb","kind":"paragraph","order":234,"section_id":"sec_b5bc658f-2420-459f-aab4-5911a6b4bfaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"光の本当の価値は「光速だから高速」ということではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8452b9ac-2082-49a9-bed8-edde6944b44c","kind":"paragraph","order":235,"section_id":"sec_b5bc658f-2420-459f-aab4-5911a6b4bfaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"electrical signalも物質中をかなり高速で伝わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_68c766ad-a4f5-4aa2-a500-26436473da1d","kind":"paragraph","order":236,"section_id":"sec_b5bc658f-2420-459f-aab4-5911a6b4bfaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"光の価値は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8aae6e8e-6a94-45f0-ad70-83497a549aef","kind":"math","order":237,"section_id":"sec_b5bc658f-2420-459f-aab4-5911a6b4bfaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\mathrm{Bandwidth}\\times\\mathrm{Distance}\\times\\mathrm{Energy}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_755604b2-8be4-48f3-b63f-a08cfe73f7a4","kind":"paragraph","order":238,"section_id":"sec_b5bc658f-2420-459f-aab4-5911a6b4bfaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"のscalingである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b8b890dc-dabd-4e36-9147-4c0c26dbb6b1","kind":"paragraph","order":239,"section_id":"sec_b5bc658f-2420-459f-aab4-5911a6b4bfaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"高data rateのelectrical linkは距離が伸びるほど、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b8f63145-e964-4221-b625-b192e461bd13","kind":"paragraph","order":240,"section_id":"sec_b5bc658f-2420-459f-aab4-5911a6b4bfaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"insertion loss","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_74786f79-d17c-4963-b680-8d7b680be615","kind":"paragraph","order":241,"section_id":"sec_b5bc658f-2420-459f-aab4-5911a6b4bfaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"equalization","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff27f112-9596-4b8f-9f4d-096873a9216d","kind":"paragraph","order":242,"section_id":"sec_b5bc658f-2420-459f-aab4-5911a6b4bfaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"retimer","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_80c91e5c-0213-429c-bd49-c1c07a183920","kind":"paragraph","order":243,"section_id":"sec_b5bc658f-2420-459f-aab4-5911a6b4bfaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"SerDes power","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1a62e295-acd3-410d-9a78-6fd62a0c20ae","kind":"paragraph","order":244,"section_id":"sec_b5bc658f-2420-459f-aab4-5911a6b4bfaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"cable volume","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c7b7e0f8-dc7b-4bc5-9d00-a208abe3114d","kind":"paragraph","order":245,"section_id":"sec_b5bc658f-2420-459f-aab4-5911a6b4bfaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"の問題が大きくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ce0edc82-e110-4d6b-bcbb-fef2f69eee8b","kind":"paragraph","order":246,"section_id":"sec_b5bc658f-2420-459f-aab4-5911a6b4bfaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"光へ変換すれば、長距離部分でこのscalingを緩和できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_04ff4056-2852-46d3-8e7f-a78574400247","kind":"paragraph","order":247,"section_id":"sec_b5bc658f-2420-459f-aab4-5911a6b4bfaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため最も自然なのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ba82730-3e3f-4fce-b274-f9a081826834","kind":"paragraph","order":248,"section_id":"sec_b5bc658f-2420-459f-aab4-5911a6b4bfaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"On-die\n ↓\nHybrid Bonding\n ↓\n2.5D / 3D\n ↓\nShort Electrical Scale-Up\n ↓\nOptical Scale-Up\n ↓\nOptical Scale-Out","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9367a751-15eb-44ba-b3e8-308d3ca8a73f","kind":"paragraph","order":249,"section_id":"sec_b5bc658f-2420-459f-aab4-5911a6b4bfaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"という距離階層である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6947c544-d456-483e-be44-52f6f0bc5769","kind":"paragraph","order":250,"section_id":"sec_b5bc658f-2420-459f-aab4-5911a6b4bfaa","character_id":null,"markdown":"光は3D packagingを置き換えるのではなく、その外側へcomputerを拡張する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ab99136-ecc6-4f9d-a76f-5b5190f4aca9","kind":"heading","order":251,"section_id":"sec_9c0236a4-a2f8-446e-b69d-35d61e73572b","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 現在のOptical Fabricはどこまで来たのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2137bbf1-9e03-4ddd-9c25-a91bcfc249b9","kind":"paragraph","order":252,"section_id":"sec_9c0236a4-a2f8-446e-b69d-35d61e73572b","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここは「光はまだ研究段階」という理解も、「もう全部光になる」という理解も正しくない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c324728-a9c8-41f3-9795-286cb13f9e24","kind":"paragraph","order":253,"section_id":"sec_9c0236a4-a2f8-446e-b69d-35d61e73572b","character_id":null,"markdown":"成熟度が用途によって大きく違う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_34205ec4-2c6a-467c-9f4d-35bd9e53ab59","kind":"paragraph","order":254,"section_id":"sec_9c0236a4-a2f8-446e-b69d-35d61e73572b","character_id":null,"markdown":"まずdata centerのScale-Out opticsは完全に商用技術である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ef6afb9-8840-4182-b15d-1c68cd886c60","kind":"paragraph","order":255,"section_id":"sec_9c0236a4-a2f8-446e-b69d-35d61e73572b","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらにGoogleはOptical Circuit Switchをproduction networkで長期間利用している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9817df51-c2ea-4935-801f-40c4055b56c4","kind":"paragraph","order":256,"section_id":"sec_9c0236a4-a2f8-446e-b69d-35d61e73572b","character_id":null,"markdown":"GoogleのJupiter networkでは約10年間のproduction experienceが報告され、OCSとsoftware-defined networkingを使ったarchitectureで5倍のspeed/capacity、30%のCAPEX削減、41%のpower削減を実現したと報告している。 (Google Research)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1f696a12-b36e-478c-b952-5eb2817054eb","kind":"paragraph","order":257,"section_id":"sec_9c0236a4-a2f8-446e-b69d-35d61e73572b","character_id":null,"markdown":"TPU v4 supercomputerでもOCSは2020年からdeploymentされており、Googleの論文ではOCSと関連optical componentがsystem costの5%未満、powerの3%未満だった。 (arXiv)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc4b6f83-8225-4ff1-ac8e-5df19ea8bbe2","kind":"paragraph","order":258,"section_id":"sec_9c0236a4-a2f8-446e-b69d-35d61e73572b","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_68fd6f08-95fe-4b0f-b9fb-8ab93dd4ef90","kind":"math","order":259,"section_id":"sec_9c0236a4-a2f8-446e-b69d-35d61e73572b","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{大規模AI SystemでOptical Switchingが実用になるか}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e03d4a2-ce36-4c5a-975b-aa3bf3ccdb12","kind":"paragraph","order":260,"section_id":"sec_9c0236a4-a2f8-446e-b69d-35d61e73572b","character_id":null,"markdown":"については、すでに実証済みと言ってよい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3aca1f89-204a-4f30-b68c-8b356094f6b1","kind":"heading","order":261,"section_id":"sec_087b0632-8fac-4896-825e-ce72ad18b129","character_id":null,"markdown":"## CPOも「研究」から「量産」へ出ている","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2419c9b2-b7db-477a-97bc-337ffe5e476b","kind":"paragraph","order":262,"section_id":"sec_087b0632-8fac-4896-825e-ce72ad18b129","character_id":null,"markdown":"BroadcomのTomahawk 5 Baillyは51.2Tb/s CPO Ethernet switchであり、同社はBaillyを初のvolume-production CPO solutionと位置付けている。 (Broadcom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cbd3719c-4458-455e-ad36-196f2134c4f4","kind":"paragraph","order":263,"section_id":"sec_087b0632-8fac-4896-825e-ce72ad18b129","character_id":null,"markdown":"2025年にはMetaのhigh-temperature lab characterizationで100万400G-equivalent port device hoursのflap-free operationが報告された。これはproduction fleetそのものの数字ではないが、CPOの長期信頼性評価がprototype段階を越えていることを示している。 (Broadcom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c6352b29-d889-40c3-b1a7-a64d3f66303e","kind":"paragraph","order":264,"section_id":"sec_087b0632-8fac-4896-825e-ce72ad18b129","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVIDIAも2026年5月にSpectrum-X Ethernet Photonicsをproduction入りさせたと発表している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e9b1b68a-c7d8-49f9-a9c5-829460c2102b","kind":"paragraph","order":265,"section_id":"sec_087b0632-8fac-4896-825e-ce72ad18b129","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPOと200Gb/s SerDesを使ったswitchで、million-GPU AI FactoryのScale-Out/Scale-Acrossを対象としている。 (NVIDIA Newsroom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3b0e6e2a-4f08-4712-b185-fa2a8a0a23db","kind":"paragraph","order":266,"section_id":"sec_087b0632-8fac-4896-825e-ce72ad18b129","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらにTSMCはCOUPEを使ったtrue CPO on substrateを2026年にproduction開始予定としている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c698b91f-597a-4de0-aac1-77d6d3783202","kind":"paragraph","order":267,"section_id":"sec_087b0632-8fac-4896-825e-ce72ad18b129","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMCはboard上のpluggable solutionとの比較で2倍のpower efficiencyと90%のlatency reductionを掲げている。これはTSMC自身の比較値だが、foundryのproduction roadmapへCPOが正式に入った意味は大きい。 (TSMC)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_627be2fe-5eca-4f33-9655-628a02e139b0","kind":"paragraph","order":268,"section_id":"sec_087b0632-8fac-4896-825e-ce72ad18b129","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりswitch側CPOについては、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb8cfea8-2da2-4ffe-98e8-07a845f47f27","kind":"math","order":269,"section_id":"sec_087b0632-8fac-4896-825e-ce72ad18b129","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{2026年は「実用になるか」ではなく「どこまで量産規模を広げるか」の段階}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_722711a1-dca5-458f-83ce-923d92fd028c","kind":"paragraph","order":270,"section_id":"sec_087b0632-8fac-4896-825e-ce72ad18b129","character_id":null,"markdown":"に入っている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2d4e95a3-6390-4628-a280-6ea16bd41ef3","kind":"heading","order":271,"section_id":"sec_f34012a6-d57d-4e8f-a4f4-cee3167af8d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"## XPU自身から光を出す技術は一段遅い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c16b7777-abfc-46da-9cde-2afc738f24b1","kind":"paragraph","order":272,"section_id":"sec_f34012a6-d57d-4e8f-a4f4-cee3167af8d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPUやcustom XPU packageへOptical I/Oを直接integrateする技術は、switch CPOより成熟度が低い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_31948921-6e44-4761-a5ea-04b8da8400b4","kind":"paragraph","order":273,"section_id":"sec_f34012a6-d57d-4e8f-a4f4-cee3167af8d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"Ayar LabsのTeraPHYはUCIe compatible optical I/O chipletで、preliminary specificationでは8Tb/s bidirectional bandwidth、fiber time-of-flightを除いて10ns/chipletを掲げる。 (Ayar Labs)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ca0fc5bb-8554-4c80-840e-2a3352032a6f","kind":"paragraph","order":274,"section_id":"sec_f34012a6-d57d-4e8f-a4f4-cee3167af8d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年OFCではAyar LabsとWiwynnがoptically connected rackを展示しており、TeraPHYとremote laserをrack-scale AI systemへ組み込むdemonstrationまで進んでいる。 (Ayar Labs)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_384dc8c4-5a23-47d1-bf8d-5c3a23fa7e18","kind":"paragraph","order":275,"section_id":"sec_f34012a6-d57d-4e8f-a4f4-cee3167af8d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり現在地は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d73ea47c-c2f0-43c4-b753-76f639107171","kind":"math","order":276,"section_id":"sec_f34012a6-d57d-4e8f-a4f4-cee3167af8d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Paper}\\rightarrow\\text{Chiplet}\\rightarrow\\text{Rack Demo}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6fe6279f-7da4-4726-8327-551898650c16","kind":"paragraph","order":277,"section_id":"sec_f34012a6-d57d-4e8f-a4f4-cee3167af8d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"まで来ている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_38004d06-134c-4cc7-9ad2-e9fc35105b96","kind":"paragraph","order":278,"section_id":"sec_f34012a6-d57d-4e8f-a4f4-cee3167af8d6","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしBroadcomのswitch CPOのようなlarge fleet production実績とはまだ距離がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_be35cb03-d128-4bc7-a52e-4c2113370eb2","kind":"heading","order":279,"section_id":"sec_b058c72e-1848-4e49-8bac-e51fb11f0d5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 業界がOptical Scale-Upの標準を作り始めた意味","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b8da836b-63a2-4b79-b354-bde57e78ab35","kind":"paragraph","order":280,"section_id":"sec_b058c72e-1848-4e49-8bac-e51fb11f0d5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年3月にはOptical Compute Interconnect MSAが設立された。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_45d63e06-7fb8-4778-a36a-9ad265a3c594","kind":"paragraph","order":281,"section_id":"sec_b058c72e-1848-4e49-8bac-e51fb11f0d5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"AMD、Broadcom、Meta、Microsoft、NVIDIA、OpenAIが創設メンバーとなり、AI Scale-Up向けopen optical specificationを作ろうとしている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_07b5448f-cea4-456f-a1dd-c6d8671587d8","kind":"paragraph","order":282,"section_id":"sec_b058c72e-1848-4e49-8bac-e51fb11f0d5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"OCIはNRZとWDMを組み合わせ、module-centricからsilicon-centricなoptical architectureへの移行を目標としている。 (OCI MSA)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d740fae-8bd3-4b49-8d09-49a411629b28","kind":"paragraph","order":283,"section_id":"sec_b058c72e-1848-4e49-8bac-e51fb11f0d5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"同時期、OCPではEthernet Scale-Up Networking 1.0が公開された。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b3b7ad65-67ff-4b34-9d03-959f155a3d79","kind":"paragraph","order":284,"section_id":"sec_b058c72e-1848-4e49-8bac-e51fb11f0d5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"lossless transport、credit-based flow control、link-level retry、小message向け低overhead headerなど、AI Scale-Upで必要となる機能をEthernetへ追加している。 (Open Compute Project)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_463d2d73-21c1-4d47-8fb2-e1aa99302790","kind":"paragraph","order":285,"section_id":"sec_b058c72e-1848-4e49-8bac-e51fb11f0d5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは重要なsignである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3072f10b-b933-4295-b69e-bd595a80f6a3","kind":"paragraph","order":286,"section_id":"sec_b058c72e-1848-4e49-8bac-e51fb11f0d5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"業界の議論が、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_722adec0-670b-4ab9-8ce8-65e0c1a88a8a","kind":"paragraph","order":287,"section_id":"sec_b058c72e-1848-4e49-8bac-e51fb11f0d5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"光を使うべきか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_243f4f75-86e1-462f-a970-121adc028148","kind":"paragraph","order":288,"section_id":"sec_b058c72e-1848-4e49-8bac-e51fb11f0d5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"から、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8fae02e7-356f-4cd4-8373-e0d6624fbcc6","kind":"paragraph","order":289,"section_id":"sec_b058c72e-1848-4e49-8bac-e51fb11f0d5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"光Scale-Upをどのinterface、protocolで標準化するか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_13c6553d-1886-45fc-9a71-fbeefea0ba77","kind":"paragraph","order":290,"section_id":"sec_b058c72e-1848-4e49-8bac-e51fb11f0d5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ移ったことを意味する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cabeb205-8b57-4463-b817-f26f1880b76f","kind":"paragraph","order":291,"section_id":"sec_b058c72e-1848-4e49-8bac-e51fb11f0d5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方で、2026年に標準化が始まったという事実は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f4dd20d4-0720-4ed5-846e-be68fcac6460","kind":"paragraph","order":292,"section_id":"sec_b058c72e-1848-4e49-8bac-e51fb11f0d5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"XPU Optical Scale-Upがまだ成熟市場ではない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f408c29-a312-436d-a3b9-195427eb081d","kind":"paragraph","order":293,"section_id":"sec_b058c72e-1848-4e49-8bac-e51fb11f0d5c","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことも意味する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4eebe713-c412-4b92-8bea-478103b37125","kind":"heading","order":294,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"## Optical Fabricにも「岸壁」がある","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_65e0c69c-b3a9-4a35-82f5-0cd4150fe20b","kind":"paragraph","order":295,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"光は無限にscalingできるわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c92f8fd-7011-43d8-af92-8fe2fcecac09","kind":"paragraph","order":296,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"bandwidthを増やすには、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0b7dfcde-77f2-48ac-8d51-abc1f92dfee5","kind":"paragraph","order":297,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"fiber数を増やす","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41e1e446-6644-4284-94a9-5a7a6f0dc81c","kind":"paragraph","order":298,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"wavelength数を増やす","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e738178-9bbf-4a7f-800b-3ee9852e6bf0","kind":"paragraph","order":299,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"wavelengthあたりdata rateを上げる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fc83383f-cb8f-4d65-8533-949eaca9d5b0","kind":"paragraph","order":300,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b211ad19-f05c-43cf-b587-078327e9708c","kind":"paragraph","order":301,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_120feff4-c68d-45f6-99d4-881f07fc7809","kind":"paragraph","order":302,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"laser power、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c98b2874-b21e-425e-9aff-4950651ea2ec","kind":"paragraph","order":303,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"wavelength stability、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f48e9699-46f5-4fec-a034-7f2aa44885f7","kind":"paragraph","order":304,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"thermal tuning、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ecd5deb1-9091-4805-9b31-08e234ad3515","kind":"paragraph","order":305,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"insertion loss、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_644da464-bab4-46f5-8ce3-5966f186a6b0","kind":"paragraph","order":306,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"receiver sensitivity、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_044c47fc-c74a-4c47-9468-3500b35adc96","kind":"paragraph","order":307,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"fiber connector density","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eca09b6c-e12b-47c4-91af-5e861aab3d51","kind":"paragraph","order":308,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"が問題になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_23846488-a9f9-4d2e-9899-e1234c85343a","kind":"paragraph","order":309,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"特に外部CW Laserを大量に使うarchitectureでは、laser自体がrack-level infrastructureになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_da446afa-ed9b-4d54-a59d-3906bc941683","kind":"paragraph","order":310,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"Lightmatterは2026年、64 laserを一つの液冷Laser NICへ統合し、一moduleで51.2Tb/s、複数moduleで数百Tb/s級CPO scale-up bandwidthを支えるGuide DRを発表した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5256213-7f9c-4f76-b140-901f25c85216","kind":"paragraph","order":311,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"同社がこれを「faceplate scaling bottleneck」への対策としていることは象徴的である。 (Lightmatter®)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b4e1bdef-6340-4acd-8bad-7e12181b7be4","kind":"paragraph","order":312,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり光へ移行すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8469ad6-8c51-45e0-8ede-f73139252230","kind":"paragraph","order":313,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"Copper cable wall","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7062beee-8018-4800-a910-98ca45b1aae7","kind":"paragraph","order":314,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"は緩和するが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c61f841f-9e49-40b9-bbde-55cb991a501e","kind":"paragraph","order":315,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"Laser density wall、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_74d1f2af-861c-4bc5-967c-342f68a3fd04","kind":"paragraph","order":316,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"Fiber handling wall、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bfd1b5a7-7a58-4871-a72b-e9ee82dbaf66","kind":"paragraph","order":317,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical packaging wall","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c7b8b6a-36c7-4786-ad97-1d47b6f19bee","kind":"paragraph","order":318,"section_id":"sec_eeeefc47-d75b-4e2c-8593-44a354af0137","character_id":null,"markdown":"が現れる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_944cfbb8-9f64-4262-9824-686597ab6c3c","kind":"heading","order":319,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 最大の難所は「光を出すこと」ではなく「大量生産すること」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19d73857-90a6-4c52-8c77-5161076e1095","kind":"paragraph","order":320,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在の状況を見ていると、Optical Fabricの最大のtechnical uncertaintyは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b4ea8700-f724-42fb-adaf-9fd007eed9fe","kind":"paragraph","order":321,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"1本のlinkで何Tb/s出せるか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2533ccff-4fdf-4466-b6fe-2f5a01643dcb","kind":"paragraph","order":322,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"ではなくなりつつある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2469e731-69d8-4822-80e6-596513a46913","kind":"paragraph","order":323,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"むしろ難しいのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ecb12386-82d0-4666-81df-c007afd06425","kind":"paragraph","order":324,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"何十万、何百万laneを高yieldで生産し、長期間壊れず運用すること","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_388d777f-6b61-4150-938c-7737d3f7c2ce","kind":"paragraph","order":325,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c6f3c0b-cea4-403c-9272-5ba746950866","kind":"paragraph","order":326,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPOでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_446ad553-bf96-48f9-b996-027b384f0233","kind":"paragraph","order":327,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"Switch ASIC、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b035d9b8-017e-4130-9201-ce9756318d3b","kind":"paragraph","order":328,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"Photonic IC、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_63463bb4-b738-4fb0-994c-2f1426403155","kind":"paragraph","order":329,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"Electronic IC、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_faf7a9b1-2763-457a-929e-d21491ddd4d9","kind":"paragraph","order":330,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"Laser、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc83eda8-1395-4d18-ae58-48e4e190f3d0","kind":"paragraph","order":331,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"Fiber Attach、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bdc65136-ea5e-41f6-8452-73f38a6bbe7a","kind":"paragraph","order":332,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"Connector","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2634c5a3-3915-409f-8ff7-022be3daf18e","kind":"paragraph","order":333,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"が一つのsystemになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4885256b-f67d-421b-beb3-b527c30fb1e1","kind":"paragraph","order":334,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"単純化すればsystem yieldは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_728eb98b-b7c6-4753-91ad-4c24ed5a7589","kind":"math","order":335,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${Y_{\\mathrm{system}}\\sim\\prod_iY_i}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_acc11e59-d454-4a9f-9569-aa9c6adf7828","kind":"paragraph","order":336,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"の影響を受ける。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6cf94423-4ee8-4a12-9ffd-6d871f58f142","kind":"paragraph","order":337,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"一つ一つのcomponent yieldが99.9%でも、component数が膨大になればsystem-level failure managementが必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12d8390d-6da1-4916-98b4-c75d55210a9d","kind":"paragraph","order":338,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのためBroadcomはCPO量産でwafer test、chip bonding、optical component attach、assembly、testの自動化を重要課題として挙げている。 (Broadcom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_78ffdb7d-3b87-49e5-9f04-4529a0d02085","kind":"paragraph","order":339,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVIDIAもSpectrum-X Photonicsでcomponent pre-screening、detachable fiber connector、automated assemblyなどを強調している。 (NVIDIA Developer)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7625d5da-e64e-487c-95ca-079ba8cbd87e","kind":"paragraph","order":340,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここから分かるのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7e8f6569-04fe-4e07-b98d-b7cfa06e557c","kind":"math","order":341,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{Photonicsの未来を決めるのはPhotonicsだけではない}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_53cebdea-4cc2-411f-9349-fbff84f4a521","kind":"paragraph","order":342,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"ということである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4de81bd2-835e-41df-8f5b-ad5220c65dc3","kind":"paragraph","order":343,"section_id":"sec_764dae55-e497-43d6-bfd7-be68968a3979","character_id":null,"markdown":"Packaging、test、mechanical engineering、automation、RASが同じくらい重要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5493ad33-2892-4e8f-986a-b0ae28fdd5e0","kind":"heading","order":344,"section_id":"sec_be06cc9b-1b8b-49ce-8d72-7679d0dc3aa0","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 何十万GPUになると「故障しない」は設計目標にならない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7363954-aa5a-4421-9ed5-fe527cc60bc8","kind":"paragraph","order":345,"section_id":"sec_be06cc9b-1b8b-49ce-8d72-7679d0dc3aa0","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI Factoryを10万XPU規模へ広げたとする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7011185b-6cb9-43c2-90a1-4ce2fea6c26b","kind":"paragraph","order":346,"section_id":"sec_be06cc9b-1b8b-49ce-8d72-7679d0dc3aa0","character_id":null,"markdown":"XPU。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0ed22c27-0023-46ad-ab28-ed8932827da3","kind":"paragraph","order":347,"section_id":"sec_be06cc9b-1b8b-49ce-8d72-7679d0dc3aa0","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6a249e3b-340b-4fee-9c3c-2e1c51db3c24","kind":"paragraph","order":348,"section_id":"sec_be06cc9b-1b8b-49ce-8d72-7679d0dc3aa0","character_id":null,"markdown":"switch。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_254d19db-8723-49ea-9f2f-4640428ff3ef","kind":"paragraph","order":349,"section_id":"sec_be06cc9b-1b8b-49ce-8d72-7679d0dc3aa0","character_id":null,"markdown":"optical engine。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2ae78f1e-e47f-4257-89af-dc28ac14d966","kind":"paragraph","order":350,"section_id":"sec_be06cc9b-1b8b-49ce-8d72-7679d0dc3aa0","character_id":null,"markdown":"laser。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_13e3d1ae-6212-49e8-b7a7-c5070e2cbb30","kind":"paragraph","order":351,"section_id":"sec_be06cc9b-1b8b-49ce-8d72-7679d0dc3aa0","character_id":null,"markdown":"fiber。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_574b331c-2333-48b0-bc47-92f4fe405e1d","kind":"paragraph","order":352,"section_id":"sec_be06cc9b-1b8b-49ce-8d72-7679d0dc3aa0","character_id":null,"markdown":"SSD。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e451c9fd-6afc-411c-86ad-72cd155f2d1d","kind":"paragraph","order":353,"section_id":"sec_be06cc9b-1b8b-49ce-8d72-7679d0dc3aa0","character_id":null,"markdown":"PSU。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3eaba642-250e-4ffc-a916-5f620c233b7e","kind":"paragraph","order":354,"section_id":"sec_be06cc9b-1b8b-49ce-8d72-7679d0dc3aa0","character_id":null,"markdown":"pump。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3908351f-092e-45c2-9777-7cd1cb0e7c91","kind":"paragraph","order":355,"section_id":"sec_be06cc9b-1b8b-49ce-8d72-7679d0dc3aa0","character_id":null,"markdown":"部品数が膨大になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_69163023-b05a-400a-bb14-63bf5aceb43d","kind":"paragraph","order":356,"section_id":"sec_be06cc9b-1b8b-49ce-8d72-7679d0dc3aa0","character_id":null,"markdown":"この規模では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef411a59-bcff-4d4e-927d-19fd510aa2c5","kind":"math","order":357,"section_id":"sec_be06cc9b-1b8b-49ce-8d72-7679d0dc3aa0","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Failure is rare}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_326d6d0a-ac57-4f3f-960f-368be04d3b3a","kind":"paragraph","order":358,"section_id":"sec_be06cc9b-1b8b-49ce-8d72-7679d0dc3aa0","character_id":null,"markdown":"という前提は使えない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c3d1eaf4-e2ce-4150-886d-d21f25a70042","kind":"paragraph","order":359,"section_id":"sec_be06cc9b-1b8b-49ce-8d72-7679d0dc3aa0","character_id":null,"markdown":"むしろ、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2cb14cb0-7383-4f2f-98d1-d6889b5872b0","kind":"math","order":360,"section_id":"sec_be06cc9b-1b8b-49ce-8d72-7679d0dc3aa0","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{Failure is 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Fabricを100倍速くするより、そもそも100分の1しか送らない方が強い場合がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_96e53479-5935-4af7-8ae3-79e8e79e36e2","kind":"paragraph","order":438,"section_id":"sec_1ffe66e1-19a9-40a5-abdc-f460adb6f608","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのためalgorithm側でも、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c930e114-9cc0-4719-949e-e60410dbe03f","kind":"paragraph","order":439,"section_id":"sec_1ffe66e1-19a9-40a5-abdc-f460adb6f608","character_id":null,"markdown":"GQA、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ed6322af-7191-4d45-80ef-2b1384902fb6","kind":"paragraph","order":440,"section_id":"sec_1ffe66e1-19a9-40a5-abdc-f460adb6f608","character_id":null,"markdown":"MLA、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_96614a70-551e-413a-813a-e771fc51d78d","kind":"paragraph","order":441,"section_id":"sec_1ffe66e1-19a9-40a5-abdc-f460adb6f608","character_id":null,"markdown":"KV quantization、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_86ffe3d1-c8c0-4553-af42-f85c4e7c1ed6","kind":"paragraph","order":442,"section_id":"sec_1ffe66e1-19a9-40a5-abdc-f460adb6f608","character_id":null,"markdown":"Context compression、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33ce2be2-4d79-44aa-ba1b-37373cb4d270","kind":"paragraph","order":443,"section_id":"sec_1ffe66e1-19a9-40a5-abdc-f460adb6f608","character_id":null,"markdown":"MoE、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_59c78cee-8d94-4bf5-be8d-7d918680ca28","kind":"paragraph","order":444,"section_id":"sec_1ffe66e1-19a9-40a5-abdc-f460adb6f608","character_id":null,"markdown":"Sparse attention、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eb6db3da-010a-4dc4-8819-21c6e2e0ab43","kind":"paragraph","order":445,"section_id":"sec_1ffe66e1-19a9-40a5-abdc-f460adb6f608","character_id":null,"markdown":"prefix caching","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9535482b-02d0-422d-917b-20f5b807fc52","kind":"paragraph","order":446,"section_id":"sec_1ffe66e1-19a9-40a5-abdc-f460adb6f608","character_id":null,"markdown":"などが重要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a0bbaf33-533f-483f-8ebb-e72e4d7dd376","kind":"paragraph","order":447,"section_id":"sec_1ffe66e1-19a9-40a5-abdc-f460adb6f608","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えばKV sizeを半分にできれば、必要なFabric bandwidthも半分になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bbf40874-8628-48ed-880a-dd64da5fb315","kind":"paragraph","order":448,"section_id":"sec_1ffe66e1-19a9-40a5-abdc-f460adb6f608","character_id":null,"markdown":"weightを8-bitから4-bitにすれば、bulk migration量も半分になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b1720260-a09a-436a-9e7a-b8e1c64b3da7","kind":"paragraph","order":449,"section_id":"sec_1ffe66e1-19a9-40a5-abdc-f460adb6f608","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じprefix KVを1000人でshareできれば、1000回Prefillする必要がない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d8f0cdd-283c-47ff-929c-f1595ccfa20b","kind":"paragraph","order":450,"section_id":"sec_1ffe66e1-19a9-40a5-abdc-f460adb6f608","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって未来のAI Factoryで最も価値のあるbyteとは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7cfc3994-d22a-4583-8533-e267c3177d6b","kind":"math","order":451,"section_id":"sec_1ffe66e1-19a9-40a5-abdc-f460adb6f608","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{送らなかったByte}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_997f1998-e54a-4e71-9d24-99518baa5a94","kind":"paragraph","order":452,"section_id":"sec_1ffe66e1-19a9-40a5-abdc-f460adb6f608","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc03c182-2f17-4e31-8432-51224a2b7eb1","kind":"paragraph","order":453,"section_id":"sec_1ffe66e1-19a9-40a5-abdc-f460adb6f608","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical Fabricの進歩とalgorithmic compressionは競合ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_be83788f-d911-4c2a-af7b-c3ed9bc1cafd","kind":"paragraph","order":454,"section_id":"sec_1ffe66e1-19a9-40a5-abdc-f460adb6f608","character_id":null,"markdown":"両方が同時に必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2966e017-9547-43bd-aeb2-c5f8f44825c0","kind":"heading","order":455,"section_id":"sec_92a226ef-f9cc-443f-aca1-9db4db927859","character_id":null,"markdown":"## AI Factoryの物理的な完成形","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21fd390c-2618-4c05-ab07-a7460fadff6d","kind":"paragraph","order":456,"section_id":"sec_92a226ef-f9cc-443f-aca1-9db4db927859","character_id":null,"markdown":"これらの制約を全部積み上げると、最も自然なarchitectureは次のようになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e357ece7-f41d-40fa-b0d9-5e35fd3c1201","kind":"paragraph","order":457,"section_id":"sec_92a226ef-f9cc-443f-aca1-9db4db927859","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI RUNTIME\n                           │\n                    Global Scheduler\n                           │\n          ┌────────────────┼────────────────┐\n          │                │                │\n    Expert Router     Memory Router      Planner\n          │                │                │\n          └────────────────┼────────────────┘\n                           │\n                  Compute / Request Pool\n                           │\n           ┌───────────────┴───────────────┐\n           │                               │\n        XPU Group                       XPU Group\n           │                               │\n         SRAM                            SRAM\n           │                               │\n      Local HBM                       Local HBM\n   Active Experts                    Active KV\n           └───────────────┬───────────────┘\n                           │\n                  Dense Scale-Up Fabric\n                           │\n                    Optical Layer\n                           │\n     ┌─────────────────────┼─────────────────────┐\n     │                     │                     │\n Other XPU HBM          Shared DRAM            CPU Pool\nResident Experts        Warm KV               Tools\n     │                 Prefix Cache           Database\n     └─────────────────────┼─────────────────────┘\n                           │\n                        NVMe SSD\n                           │\n                     Object Storage\n                           │\n             History / Files / Checkpoints","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb751e2c-8e25-4ffe-afd8-ab81f71a680e","kind":"paragraph","order":458,"section_id":"sec_92a226ef-f9cc-443f-aca1-9db4db927859","character_id":null,"markdown":"重要なのは中央に巨大な「remote memory」が一個あるわけではないことである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_07bc0d16-bed8-4ce7-ad16-36a914b32f33","kind":"paragraph","order":459,"section_id":"sec_92a226ef-f9cc-443f-aca1-9db4db927859","character_id":null,"markdown":"Memoryは何層にも分かれる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c967a8bd-503d-45ad-bafc-a89ee2e1c8f6","kind":"paragraph","order":460,"section_id":"sec_92a226ef-f9cc-443f-aca1-9db4db927859","character_id":null,"markdown":"XPUも何種類にも分かれる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dc9d7a03-1438-41bc-a134-ac8bcfe6b10b","kind":"paragraph","order":461,"section_id":"sec_92a226ef-f9cc-443f-aca1-9db4db927859","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical Fabricはその間を必要に応じて接続する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3898c776-8618-451b-a164-8dc56cbfbe47","kind":"heading","order":462,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 物理的には「完全分離型」より「階層型」が自然","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_99bd28da-1628-446e-be64-5cd106281a81","kind":"paragraph","order":463,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"未来のdata centerを、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_516ae6c1-e44f-4398-8ef3-1c9cdb4858b9","kind":"paragraph","order":464,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Compute Box、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3e54ac43-db12-41a6-a9b5-6d3210e55281","kind":"paragraph","order":465,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Memory Box、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b6f987c-cf38-48c2-8c32-f0ee761aa566","kind":"paragraph","order":466,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Storage Box","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fef6ef9b-55b7-4afe-a460-c03bde3c5453","kind":"paragraph","order":467,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ完全分離して全部光で接続する姿として描くこともできる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0b6b5b1e-bd1b-43d0-93a8-cf9e25e4072a","kind":"paragraph","order":468,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし物理法則から考えると、おそらく極端すぎる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_854f6b11-8cda-47f6-941d-0bf0c36d5290","kind":"paragraph","order":469,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Localityには圧倒的価値がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a61816ff-e8d8-4216-a736-4770801ca2a7","kind":"paragraph","order":470,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Remote accessには必ずlatencyがある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9dbbf2bd-5fa1-426c-a056-1c599d04c7bd","kind":"paragraph","order":471,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Fabricにはcongestionがある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_94bf0876-4352-4be1-bc37-f327d166c914","kind":"paragraph","order":472,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"connection pointを増やせばfailure pointも増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_38978a22-61c6-47d0-bf52-1385520eca1e","kind":"paragraph","order":473,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8ef5d42-29d2-4592-97ca-084b598965c7","kind":"paragraph","order":474,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Hot Resourceは強く統合する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d537bf1f-a59e-42a4-af2c-fc63206ee7a9","kind":"paragraph","order":475,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Cold Resourceだけdisaggregateする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_16ca21bf-91b5-4a4f-82a2-8c757b5887b4","kind":"paragraph","order":476,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"方が自然である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d7577e31-c363-45e4-8dc7-d4bb6c576232","kind":"paragraph","order":477,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Tightly Integrated\n     ↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1acde5c4-86cf-439f-ae1e-c1cb3411a7a0","kind":"paragraph","order":478,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Compute\nSRAM\nHBM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5531a69a-6593-4fb1-8dbd-14e9b616ab95","kind":"paragraph","order":479,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_18cdc4a7-884c-4630-96fa-9419ed945a58","kind":"paragraph","order":480,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Fabric","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_473466c2-59eb-473e-ac6c-4eb3cbef1497","kind":"paragraph","order":481,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a8b68439-7164-44cb-8148-f8d750e375c3","kind":"paragraph","order":482,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"DRAM\nKV Pool\nSSD\nObject Storage","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_77c71de4-4414-4071-a4da-194b9d701617","kind":"paragraph","order":483,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"↓\nLoosely Coupled","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c9bd544d-f0d9-4679-8d20-a24f283c2df7","kind":"paragraph","order":484,"section_id":"sec_1bcb0bc6-1f64-4c82-a50b-cd595957711d","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_00b5f0c6-4343-4256-ab45-4ee598f27cf7","kind":"heading","order":485,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## Packageそのものもさらに巨大化する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8a74264b-d2ac-4cd6-95ea-0980fe87744d","kind":"paragraph","order":486,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical Fabricが伸びるからといって、Local packageの大型化が止まるわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_23293a67-e5f4-45d2-a5d7-10ae1e827ee7","kind":"paragraph","order":487,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMCは現在5.5-reticle CoWoSを生産中で、2028年には14-reticle sizeへ拡大し、約10個の大型compute dieと20 HBM stackを統合する計画を示している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_344ae9c7-5fce-4b89-b75c-b415f88210ad","kind":"paragraph","order":488,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"2029年にはさらに14 reticle超、40-reticle SoW-Xを予定している。 (TSMC)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5dd77ae0-2875-42c0-973f-1c865787f56c","kind":"paragraph","order":489,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりindustryは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c0c8b529-649a-4d5f-9a12-84e30be15069","kind":"paragraph","order":490,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Localityを諦めてRemoteへ逃げる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e0bd6a28-d3b2-4c4f-8bec-2e15048fad15","kind":"paragraph","order":491,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"のではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e0ab84b7-184a-418b-8df7-2f670e5ab7ad","kind":"paragraph","order":492,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Localityを物理限界まで巨大化したうえで、その外側をOpticalで拡張する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ed9d197-279f-494a-b5f1-01d5d45b5603","kind":"paragraph","order":493,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"この二つは同時に進む。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a52a568a-465b-449d-80bf-949f1a20e824","kind":"paragraph","order":494,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり3DとOpticsは一つの同じ流れである","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_29514d1a-6d62-430f-9c39-0fa2b0ee5ef5","kind":"paragraph","order":495,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"近距離では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dfb13626-4476-4b82-9f4f-5489c7ece0d8","kind":"paragraph","order":496,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Hybrid Bonding。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_58f8b101-e533-42f3-9c86-7ab35cf921cf","kind":"paragraph","order":497,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"SoIC。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_38525e36-dec8-4895-8589-865131e4d832","kind":"paragraph","order":498,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"CoWoS。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4eab5052-6ca3-4350-bd69-08c9d4a1b6ec","kind":"paragraph","order":499,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_10351f47-9bc3-40fc-a827-4d33ed9a717c","kind":"paragraph","order":500,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"遠距離では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_249571cf-8ba1-4e59-9f43-a867c6717d56","kind":"paragraph","order":501,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPO。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5043a605-506e-4991-ac00-4e032fcab521","kind":"paragraph","order":502,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical I/O。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d64bcec-b4e8-417c-bf57-1873178e0a89","kind":"paragraph","order":503,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Fiber。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_00f5c8ff-949e-484d-8763-3ea933b7935d","kind":"paragraph","order":504,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは別々のtechnology trendではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9977f47b-68ae-4a59-ac14-372bfffed8b0","kind":"paragraph","order":505,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"共通する目的は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fab3f058-c10f-4092-b8c7-9fc592b8ba0b","kind":"math","order":506,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{Data Movement Costを距離ごとに最小化する}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c7dc560-db66-4f40-99f6-939f6e967ee9","kind":"paragraph","order":507,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_894cf216-c895-4213-8587-4eff25014a7a","kind":"paragraph","order":508,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"数µmならhybrid bonding。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cef0fe5c-4a74-4f33-b3a8-12dee3778f18","kind":"paragraph","order":509,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"数mmならinterposer。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b42bb5b-f7c9-4f28-bbaf-ec1770c1c3c1","kind":"paragraph","order":510,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"数cmならpackage/board electrical。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad60a72e-7bd0-49db-abe3-2792303083d0","kind":"paragraph","order":511,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"数m以上ならOptics。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_635b7c0a-8977-469c-9cfa-db17001c2da6","kind":"paragraph","order":512,"section_id":"sec_1a66fffd-9c64-4115-9795-3554eae9049e","character_id":null,"markdown":"というように、距離ごとに最適なtransport technologyを使う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0de3e7b0-95a8-42f6-8196-32a72abe6b3a","kind":"heading","order":513,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"## Optical Scale-Upが大きく立ち上がる時期","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad5f0d7a-9c39-45cd-9877-fe00950e9f53","kind":"paragraph","order":514,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のtechnology maturityを見ると、段階的に進む可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6e2d34a6-ed42-4b92-a2b5-a1897c775c46","kind":"paragraph","order":515,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年はSwitch CPOのproduction化とOptical Scale-Up標準化が重なった年と見ることができる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_647c6c68-3f28-433b-84aa-c4f68cb704e2","kind":"paragraph","order":516,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"Broadcomはvolume-production CPOを持ち、NVIDIA Spectrum-X Photonicsもproductionに入り、TSMC COUPEもproduction開始予定である。 (Broadcom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f440a0f1-0858-4530-b64c-bd6bf69d4cde","kind":"paragraph","order":517,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方、XPU Optical I/Oはrack demo、chiplet、prototypeから初期商用化へ向かう段階である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4e784950-b23c-41a8-afd0-88685e3b569f","kind":"paragraph","order":518,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"MarvellはCelestial AI買収に際し、Photonic Fabricからのmeaningful revenue contributionをFY2028後半から見込んでいる。 (Marvell Technology, Inc.)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_079d8058-47f6-44a9-b9e4-d92b2e0fe1f0","kind":"paragraph","order":519,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"このことから、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5a824bb-03c3-4a13-88f8-11796db82699","kind":"math","order":520,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{2027\\text{～}2029\\text{年}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2852d076-5425-4ade-9914-9ce3e5ac47fc","kind":"paragraph","order":521,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"がmulti-rack Optical Scale-Upの大きな転換期間になる可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_03edc34d-a4fd-4b39-9a5f-910d8327cfe6","kind":"paragraph","order":522,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"その次にKV、Memory Poolが来る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e9f1cf1a-88d8-49d4-8702-9c639239d09b","kind":"paragraph","order":523,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical XPU-to-XPU communicationの方が、generic remote memoryより先に実用化する可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e039ba61-347c-487a-9e4e-2ff558197aaf","kind":"paragraph","order":524,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"理由はremote memoryの方がsoftware semanticsまで変える必要があるからである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1918f6d0-162e-4fc3-ade3-e1198e4d5182","kind":"paragraph","order":525,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"Memoryには、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_865c03bf-0d25-4d79-b75b-80321fded825","kind":"paragraph","order":526,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"ordering、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ad477a7-f975-4dbf-852e-4fa506850e47","kind":"paragraph","order":527,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"consistency、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_67faff85-e914-404e-ad80-605488f96e5d","kind":"paragraph","order":528,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"fault handling、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_863d5562-4a99-4109-93ad-2508ba041709","kind":"paragraph","order":529,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"addressing、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_59ddf93e-3fc9-49c0-b8b9-c53b581c4e78","kind":"paragraph","order":530,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"page/block management","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_53d0a2db-b057-410f-bdc9-e0aeb13c2584","kind":"paragraph","order":531,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"などが必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_27327485-4954-4355-9216-562e84f312a8","kind":"paragraph","order":532,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのためMemory Poolの初期用途は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_48ceae68-4f43-4529-b1d8-756e054e535f","kind":"paragraph","order":533,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"arbitrary byte-addressable DRAM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_30fbf955-6c84-4a4e-bbb5-4c3c5b05c70e","kind":"paragraph","order":534,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"ではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ac26ee1b-5e00-4610-bb21-806c82b0993f","kind":"paragraph","order":535,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"KV block","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_44f866d6-7f3d-4e65-9dae-94a22bdbb868","kind":"paragraph","order":536,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"prefix cache","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dff1f87d-327d-48c9-8141-961b59812aa7","kind":"paragraph","order":537,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"tensor","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b34ab033-a247-46a8-bc0b-249ba019c87c","kind":"paragraph","order":538,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"Expert shard","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5bd68a7c-8bf8-4919-8968-7f44a104a55b","kind":"paragraph","order":539,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"checkpoint","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_505e58c1-fa88-436d-a093-b764546e1314","kind":"paragraph","order":540,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"のような明示的な大きなobjectになる可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3b54c0ef-1d62-461e-90bc-a8f705cc7e32","kind":"paragraph","order":541,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年にすでにKV cache向けPhotonic-CXLやCXL-hybrid memoryの研究が相次いでいることも、この方向性を示している。 (arXiv)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a55d208f-65ff-4974-a93c-a2eb929d3f92","kind":"paragraph","order":542,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"本格的なShared KV Tierは2029～2031年前後、より汎用的なcomposable memoryはその後になる可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_576a4af6-e75f-478c-9531-7a0c5c0a177a","kind":"paragraph","order":543,"section_id":"sec_04848aa6-e2bc-4eaa-b204-de4769dc54c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは予測であり確定したroadmapではないが、現在の成熟度差から見ると自然な順序である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ac5dff1d-41d0-48d0-9fd1-22f53f1f01ab","kind":"heading","order":544,"section_id":"sec_56e2b9bf-fa7f-4539-bebf-59fb28ea173a","character_id":null,"markdown":"## それでも2030年に「全部完成」する必要はない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c1f5141-35a4-42d7-99cd-66635b824494","kind":"paragraph","order":545,"section_id":"sec_56e2b9bf-fa7f-4539-bebf-59fb28ea173a","character_id":null,"markdown":"重要なのは、未来像が一日に切り替わるわけではないことである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e9e76c06-358c-4d3b-85e8-1330afee4eaf","kind":"paragraph","order":546,"section_id":"sec_56e2b9bf-fa7f-4539-bebf-59fb28ea173a","character_id":null,"markdown":"2030年頃にはfrontier hyperscalerで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f6835a3b-351b-47e3-8f8e-d8647266abdc","kind":"paragraph","order":547,"section_id":"sec_56e2b9bf-fa7f-4539-bebf-59fb28ea173a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Prefill/Decodeの論理分離","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_854546be-e975-4c20-a8b7-d65c565762aa","kind":"paragraph","order":548,"section_id":"sec_56e2b9bf-fa7f-4539-bebf-59fb28ea173a","character_id":null,"markdown":"KV-aware routing","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c7e5568-c3ec-469f-a992-63bc8e65808e","kind":"paragraph","order":549,"section_id":"sec_56e2b9bf-fa7f-4539-bebf-59fb28ea173a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Local HBM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8137ed8-5705-4aeb-ae04-2c4888e7197f","kind":"paragraph","order":550,"section_id":"sec_56e2b9bf-fa7f-4539-bebf-59fb28ea173a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Distributed resident Expert","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c6d66123-03d8-4890-a9d5-39a94e9c6986","kind":"paragraph","order":551,"section_id":"sec_56e2b9bf-fa7f-4539-bebf-59fb28ea173a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical multi-rack scale-up","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4b55250a-bd09-43f3-82c6-7119a4a6c192","kind":"paragraph","order":552,"section_id":"sec_56e2b9bf-fa7f-4539-bebf-59fb28ea173a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Warm KV tier","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fa689bab-0c74-40a6-811f-1e38239e5f4e","kind":"paragraph","order":553,"section_id":"sec_56e2b9bf-fa7f-4539-bebf-59fb28ea173a","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVMe/object storage context tier","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad5a2341-693d-4118-853d-9ffd8bf2eeed","kind":"paragraph","order":554,"section_id":"sec_56e2b9bf-fa7f-4539-bebf-59fb28ea173a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Global locality-aware scheduler","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6d9fe1e-151c-4d3e-84cd-dfe7e1e127dd","kind":"paragraph","order":555,"section_id":"sec_56e2b9bf-fa7f-4539-bebf-59fb28ea173a","character_id":null,"markdown":"が組み合わさっている可能性はかなりある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_79ec1ea0-3a05-4eb9-a601-9c3e8f40b522","kind":"paragraph","order":556,"section_id":"sec_56e2b9bf-fa7f-4539-bebf-59fb28ea173a","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方でgeneric remote memoryや完全なcross-vendor optical composabilityは2030年代前半まで発展途中でも不思議ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6088c8fb-17c2-4010-8d73-c175e7eda248","kind":"paragraph","order":557,"section_id":"sec_56e2b9bf-fa7f-4539-bebf-59fb28ea173a","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり進化は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_558a8557-fbb3-487d-9f2a-dff7b81bfabb","kind":"paragraph","order":558,"section_id":"sec_56e2b9bf-fa7f-4539-bebf-59fb28ea173a","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU Cluster\n ↓\nRack-scale Computer\n ↓\nMulti-rack Scale-Up\n ↓\nHierarchical Memory AI Factory\n ↓\nComposable AI Factory","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c051da01-5409-4fe8-9f9c-22b13ec36a3d","kind":"paragraph","order":559,"section_id":"sec_56e2b9bf-fa7f-4539-bebf-59fb28ea173a","character_id":null,"markdown":"と段階的に進む可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e3c424ce-aefc-401f-8292-905f89b22989","kind":"heading","order":560,"section_id":"sec_a73d5449-a1ae-40c7-8301-d9925168e391","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 最後まで残るのはPowerとHeat","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ebe33248-ab2a-46ca-938a-b20918aa1086","kind":"paragraph","order":561,"section_id":"sec_a73d5449-a1ae-40c7-8301-d9925168e391","character_id":null,"markdown":"どれほどsoftwareとopticsを改善しても、最後にenergy conservationから逃げることはできない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9ac48366-41a4-4ceb-98f3-e2d87ffc5241","kind":"paragraph","order":562,"section_id":"sec_a73d5449-a1ae-40c7-8301-d9925168e391","character_id":null,"markdown":"dataを動かすにはenergyが必要である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2a1fb6ac-72ba-4363-8f1f-7fc6e5593b22","kind":"paragraph","order":563,"section_id":"sec_a73d5449-a1ae-40c7-8301-d9925168e391","character_id":null,"markdown":"transistorをswitchすればheatになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b928ffe-a6ae-47a4-a935-a5f3bc121ff6","kind":"paragraph","order":564,"section_id":"sec_a73d5449-a1ae-40c7-8301-d9925168e391","character_id":null,"markdown":"laserもpowerを使う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_57d9f68c-bb1c-4f35-bfe1-0074467dc6d3","kind":"paragraph","order":565,"section_id":"sec_a73d5449-a1ae-40c7-8301-d9925168e391","character_id":null,"markdown":"photodetector、TIA、SerDes、switch ASICもpowerを使う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6cba7cd2-6a2c-424a-88e2-c5200d25024e","kind":"paragraph","order":566,"section_id":"sec_a73d5449-a1ae-40c7-8301-d9925168e391","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのためAI Factoryの規模は最後には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f5cfdcd-478f-471f-861c-2b92e1fc6b44","kind":"math","order":567,"section_id":"sec_a73d5449-a1ae-40c7-8301-d9925168e391","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Available Electrical Power}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b94fee22-203e-4f8b-b847-f37f78d9f9d9","kind":"paragraph","order":568,"section_id":"sec_a73d5449-a1ae-40c7-8301-d9925168e391","character_id":null,"markdown":"と、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_79ed867c-43b8-465b-af56-7999002d0299","kind":"math","order":569,"section_id":"sec_a73d5449-a1ae-40c7-8301-d9925168e391","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\text{Heat Removal Capacity}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9064a684-25d5-4d6d-b6b7-961eb32ff590","kind":"paragraph","order":570,"section_id":"sec_a73d5449-a1ae-40c7-8301-d9925168e391","character_id":null,"markdown":"にも制限される。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_14d2fdb8-9464-4642-a67f-36d4adbda7d9","kind":"paragraph","order":571,"section_id":"sec_a73d5449-a1ae-40c7-8301-d9925168e391","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって将来の最重要指標は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d76345c-9868-44f2-9bc4-6a3ae53b6ffd","kind":"math","order":572,"section_id":"sec_a73d5449-a1ae-40c7-8301-d9925168e391","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\mathrm{FLOPS}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_022cde08-66d0-41d5-a666-bf2402ab5739","kind":"paragraph","order":573,"section_id":"sec_a73d5449-a1ae-40c7-8301-d9925168e391","character_id":null,"markdown":"だけではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad76fe20-f13a-446c-ab67-fc3dcade0e72","kind":"math","order":574,"section_id":"sec_a73d5449-a1ae-40c7-8301-d9925168e391","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\mathrm{Tokens/Joule}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ffe15ea3-a68c-4634-9591-a77284466d3a","kind":"math","order":575,"section_id":"sec_a73d5449-a1ae-40c7-8301-d9925168e391","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\mathrm{Useful\\ Work/Joule}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71af61c5-03e5-494e-ad04-f2088a98eef6","kind":"paragraph","order":576,"section_id":"sec_a73d5449-a1ae-40c7-8301-d9925168e391","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ近づいていく。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_17c7dfca-5204-492b-88d0-6eda883a837d","kind":"heading","order":577,"section_id":"sec_be2f11be-4369-47fa-add2-82e693fc0ae4","character_id":null,"markdown":"## AI Factoryの勝者を決めるもの","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d6b8ba16-617d-4160-8441-00c01d1b41c8","kind":"paragraph","order":578,"section_id":"sec_be2f11be-4369-47fa-add2-82e693fc0ae4","character_id":null,"markdown":"未来の競争では、「一番速いGPUを持っている企業」が必ず勝つとは限らない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0621364e-21af-494e-ba00-6990472418af","kind":"paragraph","order":579,"section_id":"sec_be2f11be-4369-47fa-add2-82e693fc0ae4","character_id":null,"markdown":"仮にGPU Aが100のpeak性能を持っていても、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_508e7e02-2009-4dd7-8e6d-d81364dd1f29","kind":"paragraph","order":580,"section_id":"sec_be2f11be-4369-47fa-add2-82e693fc0ae4","character_id":null,"markdown":"memory stall、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6a7a090d-1482-497d-bc20-c303d3acce84","kind":"paragraph","order":581,"section_id":"sec_be2f11be-4369-47fa-add2-82e693fc0ae4","character_id":null,"markdown":"Expert communication、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4cc97579-70ac-424d-a6ee-65a68141358f","kind":"paragraph","order":582,"section_id":"sec_be2f11be-4369-47fa-add2-82e693fc0ae4","character_id":null,"markdown":"KV transfer、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3017ec4b-6a69-4236-9106-fc6248ef07ca","kind":"paragraph","order":583,"section_id":"sec_be2f11be-4369-47fa-add2-82e693fc0ae4","character_id":null,"markdown":"network congestion","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f70f5198-7008-47d1-bdd8-331bf147208e","kind":"paragraph","order":584,"section_id":"sec_be2f11be-4369-47fa-add2-82e693fc0ae4","character_id":null,"markdown":"で60%しか使えなければ、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_edba6c85-c691-43b6-9d44-51c8c94fd36c","kind":"math","order":585,"section_id":"sec_be2f11be-4369-47fa-add2-82e693fc0ae4","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${100\\times0.6=60}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_70518dec-a195-4365-a6ba-10de8b60c0c1","kind":"paragraph","order":586,"section_id":"sec_be2f11be-4369-47fa-add2-82e693fc0ae4","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff242238-fb0e-4140-8ad0-bdf4f7024edd","kind":"paragraph","order":587,"section_id":"sec_be2f11be-4369-47fa-add2-82e693fc0ae4","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU Bのpeak性能が80でも、90%利用できれば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd4b1f41-45ec-4d38-a41d-235716939818","kind":"math","order":588,"section_id":"sec_be2f11be-4369-47fa-add2-82e693fc0ae4","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${80\\times0.9=72}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_81bfa1a2-af50-4f81-820a-550d7c4c2818","kind":"paragraph","order":589,"section_id":"sec_be2f11be-4369-47fa-add2-82e693fc0ae4","character_id":null,"markdown":"になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f767584f-24f8-43a7-ab5e-a86afc5f9b3f","kind":"paragraph","order":590,"section_id":"sec_be2f11be-4369-47fa-add2-82e693fc0ae4","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ba03a6e-be93-45bc-8b45-9652f9f9ca15","kind":"math","order":591,"section_id":"sec_be2f11be-4369-47fa-add2-82e693fc0ae4","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{Useful Compute}=\\text{Peak Compute}\\times\\text{Utilization}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5be5f830-668a-4008-9620-99f1d0f373e6","kind":"paragraph","order":592,"section_id":"sec_be2f11be-4369-47fa-add2-82e693fc0ae4","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_974910bb-33cb-4964-9056-82763632cd40","kind":"paragraph","order":593,"section_id":"sec_be2f11be-4369-47fa-add2-82e693fc0ae4","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため将来の競争力には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7808480a-35c8-4774-8f85-86590cf94f73","kind":"paragraph","order":594,"section_id":"sec_be2f11be-4369-47fa-add2-82e693fc0ae4","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU 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CPU、Rubin GPU、NVLink switch、ConnectX、BlueField、Spectrum switchを一体のAI supercomputerとして展開しているのも、この方向を表している。 (NVIDIA Newsroom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9f1d7676-6847-4881-b8c1-80c8a2b1d330","kind":"paragraph","order":604,"section_id":"sec_be2f11be-4369-47fa-add2-82e693fc0ae4","character_id":null,"markdown":"Google Ironwoodも最大9,216 TPUをICI、Optical Circuit Switch、DCN、HBM、XLAまで含むholistic systemとして設計している。 (Google Cloud)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_45e44ef9-58ab-4676-ac79-2a546320ad35","kind":"paragraph","order":605,"section_id":"sec_be2f11be-4369-47fa-add2-82e693fc0ae4","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり企業側の製品設計自体が、すでに「chip競争」から「system競争」へ移っている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_16e3ab7e-cd83-4904-941a-817e7711c860","kind":"heading","order":606,"section_id":"sec_0544bb92-34b8-40e5-95c4-321e66f30f16","character_id":null,"markdown":"## AI Factoryは「巨大な脳」より「巨大な記憶・交通システム」に近い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b47cc793-2463-4bc2-b8b7-30b5feb17502","kind":"paragraph","order":607,"section_id":"sec_0544bb92-34b8-40e5-95c4-321e66f30f16","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIを人間の脳に例えることは多い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73dd4179-37e8-4adb-bb68-a23a73d1d4b4","kind":"paragraph","order":608,"section_id":"sec_0544bb92-34b8-40e5-95c4-321e66f30f16","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしAI Factoryのhardware architectureを理解するなら、むしろ巨大都市に近い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15820101-68d2-42a7-91d6-004dc1aaf80a","kind":"paragraph","order":609,"section_id":"sec_0544bb92-34b8-40e5-95c4-321e66f30f16","character_id":null,"markdown":"XPUが工場。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_998fbf42-0719-43e4-8c77-9424f1716988","kind":"paragraph","order":610,"section_id":"sec_0544bb92-34b8-40e5-95c4-321e66f30f16","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMが工場の作業台。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_35da47b6-964a-468a-90de-d9efeb76c654","kind":"paragraph","order":611,"section_id":"sec_0544bb92-34b8-40e5-95c4-321e66f30f16","character_id":null,"markdown":"DRAMが近隣倉庫。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3f96015e-da6c-4d50-8c2c-734e252c5303","kind":"paragraph","order":612,"section_id":"sec_0544bb92-34b8-40e5-95c4-321e66f30f16","character_id":null,"markdown":"SSDが巨大物流倉庫。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93670d46-18a3-4f0d-b590-ad4287cb4eb2","kind":"paragraph","order":613,"section_id":"sec_0544bb92-34b8-40e5-95c4-321e66f30f16","character_id":null,"markdown":"Object Storageが長期保管庫。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12817bcb-c76b-419d-9c73-e1e0d17ad9a6","kind":"paragraph","order":614,"section_id":"sec_0544bb92-34b8-40e5-95c4-321e66f30f16","character_id":null,"markdown":"Fabricが道路。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fccf8259-6f5e-432d-975b-cb493ae04c3b","kind":"paragraph","order":615,"section_id":"sec_0544bb92-34b8-40e5-95c4-321e66f30f16","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical Fabricが高速鉄道。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88bb1a11-5efd-4859-9443-b65e0e7068e5","kind":"paragraph","order":616,"section_id":"sec_0544bb92-34b8-40e5-95c4-321e66f30f16","character_id":null,"markdown":"Schedulerが交通管制。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2e79a748-14a0-4d35-a661-3636ade1a584","kind":"paragraph","order":617,"section_id":"sec_0544bb92-34b8-40e5-95c4-321e66f30f16","character_id":null,"markdown":"Model Routerが「どの専門工場で作るか」を決める。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_63b52569-6195-4807-aace-0c9bdaef341d","kind":"paragraph","order":618,"section_id":"sec_0544bb92-34b8-40e5-95c4-321e66f30f16","character_id":null,"markdown":"Memory Routerが「必要な資料がどの倉庫にあるか」を決める。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_391961c1-4d32-4013-9013-40c7221db5e5","kind":"paragraph","order":619,"section_id":"sec_0544bb92-34b8-40e5-95c4-321e66f30f16","character_id":null,"markdown":"重要なのは、すべての物を最高速鉄道で毎回運ぶことではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2b97cbfb-5b17-46fd-b903-a7ce8b1abe5e","kind":"paragraph","order":620,"section_id":"sec_0544bb92-34b8-40e5-95c4-321e66f30f16","character_id":null,"markdown":"頻繁に使うものを最初から工場の隣に置くこと","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e678ac7-f107-4fe9-a8bf-66b0d70474f7","kind":"paragraph","order":621,"section_id":"sec_0544bb92-34b8-40e5-95c4-321e66f30f16","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_646bf808-487c-4417-82a1-6045ba527947","kind":"paragraph","order":622,"section_id":"sec_0544bb92-34b8-40e5-95c4-321e66f30f16","character_id":null,"markdown":"これがLocalityである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d36f5131-e489-43a1-8b51-406fa4f06687","kind":"heading","order":623,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 物理法則から見れば、進む方向はかなり絞られている","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_faa72978-5182-4c95-9238-d06e30b6fcbd","kind":"paragraph","order":624,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"将来の具体的なproduct名を予想することは難しい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eaa11618-e61e-439b-a583-08f03d605da2","kind":"paragraph","order":625,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし物理制約から方向を推定することはできる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ba3076c0-5f1a-4ea6-9227-ccf0c8d8283d","kind":"paragraph","order":626,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"Computeは今後も増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_95b1dfce-cc7b-4391-8774-1a62ccb41e9a","kind":"paragraph","order":627,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"するとMemory bandwidth需要が増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_390863ef-1809-491b-b1cb-43e367bfece5","kind":"paragraph","order":628,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMだけでは容量costが高くなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bb25aa15-57f8-42d7-a4ff-6a1a99c68637","kind":"paragraph","order":629,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこでMemory hierarchyが深くなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_63dcf4fe-d328-411c-b4c6-d12672ce93e1","kind":"paragraph","order":630,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"XPU数が増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6de5e621-4f0e-493f-b8e3-7cafd853ca01","kind":"paragraph","order":631,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"するとScale-Up bandwidthが増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e4106189-237f-4e84-b0a5-952b630f771e","kind":"paragraph","order":632,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"銅のdistance・energy・cablingが問題になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_78b44ac1-f239-454b-953b-64d92983da4e","kind":"paragraph","order":633,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこでOpticalがXPUへ近づく。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7852d6de-12d1-427f-b61e-df660dd17a4c","kind":"paragraph","order":634,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical Fabricが高速化する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7349a815-7ddd-45e4-807b-8c39cb516b4a","kind":"paragraph","order":635,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"するとRemote Resourceを使いやすくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b44e03bc-39b7-4e95-9349-119cf875b9ce","kind":"paragraph","order":636,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしpropagation latencyは消えない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2064be5e-39bc-4d76-b8a2-4a78224fc926","kind":"paragraph","order":637,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこでLocal HBMは残る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9fc237dc-e605-43af-a5e6-55c08619bb28","kind":"paragraph","order":638,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"Remote accessのlatencyが残る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0f25b15-3404-4943-a9b9-ec0ee77b52cd","kind":"paragraph","order":639,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこでPrefetchとLocality-aware schedulingが重要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93e6d1e6-6fe5-4c97-bc26-0cdd7603456c","kind":"paragraph","order":640,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"XPU数が増える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2d05c6f6-9ed3-4669-99bc-685ee6cd74e9","kind":"paragraph","order":641,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"するとfailureが日常になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c658d498-23fd-4268-81e6-0f9fe1f6a782","kind":"paragraph","order":642,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこでrerouting、checkpoint、replicationが必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6e5cead2-5ad4-4f71-ae43-36068decad1f","kind":"paragraph","order":643,"section_id":"sec_716328d6-ec2c-4d49-9a0b-bcf86cdaed01","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり一つの制約を置くと、次に必要なtechnologyがかなり自然に導かれる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3909c1f8-64a7-4ead-9674-0098a3a74b02","kind":"heading","order":644,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"## そして最終的にAI Factoryは「一台のComputer」に見えるようになる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_96bd74e8-6e5f-48aa-b204-693e3c8844cb","kind":"paragraph","order":645,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"物理的には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bbf32a86-bf77-42e2-b9a8-850529dea447","kind":"paragraph","order":646,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"数万XPU、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6d79363c-5f9c-42e3-b283-54dfc4c4aea7","kind":"paragraph","order":647,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"何PBものHBM/DRAM、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_76c8c136-8052-4904-90e8-6afdecab2c78","kind":"paragraph","order":648,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"大量のSSD、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_32c0cac6-d76a-4790-b203-af763159322e","kind":"paragraph","order":649,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"何kmものfiber","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c606d95-f22e-4e28-afa2-489d01fe4c24","kind":"paragraph","order":650,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"から構成されていても、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6320542a-31e9-4bff-b8ac-dd25697e9de3","kind":"paragraph","order":651,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"softwareからは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b7a0353-c684-4f30-9b23-77ecd71cc2d2","kind":"paragraph","order":652,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"model.generate()","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f557449e-b60e-4da0-9bc8-f9f2f9537012","kind":"paragraph","order":653,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"のような一つのlogical acceleratorに見えることが理想である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1771a6d8-73cc-45a5-9603-a16ffa7fefc0","kind":"paragraph","order":654,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"内部では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ab82d06e-b2ff-4f62-ad76-0598d3550c88","kind":"paragraph","order":655,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"どのXPUを使うか。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ccaf46c9-205f-4053-ba14-54ca7a793698","kind":"paragraph","order":656,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"どのExpertを使うか。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b7dbc636-9c7d-4277-a40e-bf9a77d522df","kind":"paragraph","order":657,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"KVがどこにあるか。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c17b5c6-497c-48aa-8f28-adb9a0583245","kind":"paragraph","order":658,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"どのFabric pathを使うか。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b351ee05-e90e-431e-8c75-32a31303cf31","kind":"paragraph","order":659,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"何をprefetchするか。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef1e8718-c572-4630-a4b8-a878e7625b69","kind":"paragraph","order":660,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"どこにcheckpointを置くか。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eb83d1df-3829-4de5-a8bf-e4124f19c77e","kind":"paragraph","order":661,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"をruntimeが自動的に決める。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b8f2bd03-3651-495f-b53b-bf4eec93ecb6","kind":"paragraph","order":662,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"Cloud computingがphysical serverを抽象化したのと同じように、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_134aed88-8195-434c-b64e-346a5fc1b3c5","kind":"paragraph","order":663,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"次は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3e16e66c-7626-4fac-9ded-d89375335e50","kind":"paragraph","order":664,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI hardware topologyそのものがsoftwareに抽象化される","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0148aa9b-86ac-40ce-b931-787c918fb04c","kind":"paragraph","order":665,"section_id":"sec_ad525e1d-f4de-44a5-bf8b-e200906d21e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8e8d3b54-88cf-4340-99d9-128b1b9cf11e","kind":"heading","order":666,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 結論――未来のAI Factoryとは「演算器を待たせないための機械」である","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5714dd33-2ace-4f37-8d1b-af6bbd456160","kind":"paragraph","order":667,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI Factoryについて考えるとき、最も重要な問いは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ec0446af-97aa-4d48-9751-131725e9037b","kind":"paragraph","order":668,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPUはいくつあるのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15c53677-9957-4abd-8207-99e122e4f696","kind":"paragraph","order":669,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf56a5d0-5775-4e04-8955-817b7704d453","kind":"paragraph","order":670,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBMは何GBあるのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dfa240a8-72d1-45f7-894c-c7dd696e421c","kind":"paragraph","order":671,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"だけでもない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_61d8451e-a633-4cd5-823e-eb661266f7a7","kind":"paragraph","order":672,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical bandwidthが何Pb/sあるのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5fcc055b-ce1c-4708-904c-b3a8ea7a6095","kind":"paragraph","order":673,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"でもない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5408f37-2053-4925-99cf-47d0dd74e2b0","kind":"paragraph","order":674,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"本当の問いは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_18b54b5c-3c5e-466f-8987-cf9b5b63bad2","kind":"math","order":675,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{演算器が次に必要とするDataを、演算器が待つ前に届けられるか}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b13edb15-ec9e-42a0-98d9-d76381633395","kind":"paragraph","order":676,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0a77721-0373-465c-99cc-dd5350944ce6","kind":"paragraph","order":677,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのためHot DataはLocal HBMへ置く。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5fa29b0a-9a0d-46a4-aca7-a0385589f225","kind":"paragraph","order":678,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"Cold DataはSSDへ置く。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bff2dd8e-0a7e-4995-acaf-c0fccfb0be5a","kind":"paragraph","order":679,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"Expertは使用するXPUのHBMへresidentさせる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_011b1af0-c7b6-4dc2-9583-8a1df19838ff","kind":"paragraph","order":680,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"KVはreuseする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5647e2b1-d370-428f-a0a6-6f3dcedb7620","kind":"paragraph","order":681,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要Memoryだけretrieveする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ca510f7-93df-4bb5-94da-0c91eb40dbe1","kind":"paragraph","order":682,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"次に必要なものをprefetchする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4249ba7f-1c81-471c-96a1-89cecea2f266","kind":"paragraph","order":683,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"dataがある場所へrequestを送る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84998830-f719-43f9-a2c2-389109b28f4e","kind":"paragraph","order":684,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"遠距離だけOptical Fabricを使う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ca299c6a-4679-4f17-83bd-6f8ad1f17bf2","kind":"paragraph","order":685,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"故障すればrerouteする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3cde52b7-8664-44c6-9237-ec5831b496bd","kind":"paragraph","order":686,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"そしてこれらすべてをGlobal Schedulerが管理する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c88afa56-8b32-4992-819c-e9f9d0e633a0","kind":"paragraph","order":687,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"この構造から見ると、Optical FabricはAI Factoryの主役であると同時に、万能解ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b8a41ef7-9ec9-4cc4-9b70-e222739f210a","kind":"paragraph","order":688,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"光の本当の役割は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_509d4383-816c-491e-ba9f-da2966ba8634","kind":"paragraph","order":689,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"Localityを捨てることではなく、Localityでは届かなくなった場所までComputerを拡張すること","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b55d177f-0084-4d8c-be8d-3f8599c8b0ab","kind":"paragraph","order":690,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f9d56729-ae97-4932-9976-b57755059c82","kind":"paragraph","order":691,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"だから未来は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c6d3370-3598-46a0-9a9a-5f72dc926f25","kind":"paragraph","order":692,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"「HBMかOptical Memoryか」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cbf7f52e-2367-48b8-a128-8d870481bbfe","kind":"paragraph","order":693,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"「3DかOpticalか」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_197dad4b-2804-48ae-9921-ba1e1e01ba57","kind":"paragraph","order":694,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"「LocalかRemoteか」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7c4fb6d-9201-4205-8b08-1d030103f077","kind":"paragraph","order":695,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"という二択にはならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_301cd6d2-265b-4a4b-8b8f-f992b6b41eb7","kind":"paragraph","order":696,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"むしろ、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c5549776-a63e-40eb-9ea3-e5a1fb5cc283","kind":"math","order":697,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{SRAM}\\rightarrow\\text{HBM}\\rightarrow\\text{DRAM}\\rightarrow\\text{Flash}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2eabc283-31e5-45d8-86a7-975c0569e1a4","kind":"paragraph","order":698,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"というmemory hierarchyと、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a6954805-6682-437d-91ca-b6cd7f772673","kind":"math","order":699,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"$${\\boxed{\\text{On-die}\\rightarrow\\text{3D}\\rightarrow\\text{2.5D}\\rightarrow\\text{Electrical}\\rightarrow\\text{Optical}}}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_944ac114-97c8-4e62-b21c-01abd6d5ab52","kind":"paragraph","order":700,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"というdistance hierarchyを重ね合わせたsystemになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fa24c727-a718-4f23-b47f-52a1de2431a9","kind":"paragraph","order":701,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"この二つをSoftwareが動的に制御する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_102eff8f-143b-4301-9ebe-4c0840d62a0b","kind":"paragraph","order":702,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこまで進んだとき、Data Centerは「大量のGPUが置かれた建物」ではなくなる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f59d516d-0f3f-40ac-adf6-7176909dbf91","kind":"paragraph","order":703,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"建物全体が一台のComputerになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a7d4174f-f145-49dd-89d0-6ada95570a48","kind":"paragraph","order":704,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"そしてAI半導体競争の中心は、最も大きなchipを作ることから、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_35538ab8-7a95-4db0-8a89-72ed47d472fb","kind":"paragraph","order":705,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"最も巨大な計算機を、あたかも一枚のchipのように効率よく動かすこと","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_54e1dc19-1def-43e5-b843-417a82ff4a1c","kind":"paragraph","order":706,"section_id":"sec_fbffeb69-6748-4716-9152-80b1e72b5059","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ移っていく。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8518e05-3038-4e10-926c-6bdd98749ae6","kind":"heading","order":707,"section_id":"sec_2f019ded-37d7-456a-a313-9e820d1c26d7","character_id":null,"markdown":"## さらに深く読むための座標","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_360a3005-fcf0-42bb-8cfe-63fd7212bbee","kind":"paragraph","order":708,"section_id":"sec_2f019ded-37d7-456a-a313-9e820d1c26d7","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI Factoryの完成度は、最大帯域ではなく、仕事ごとに最適な場所へComputeとDataを寄せ、再計算・移動・待機の総量を減らせるかで測るべきである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3673fd4d-fef3-472e-9bb9-2f7ca5549222","kind":"table","order":709,"section_id":"sec_2f019ded-37d7-456a-a313-9e820d1c26d7","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 層 | 観測対象 | 問うべきこと |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Data plane | token、KV、activation、collective通信 | μs以下の遅延と安定帯域 |\n| Control plane | Expert複製、配置変更、checkpoint | 秒～分単位の予測と再配置 |\n| Failure plane | 故障検出、迂回、再開、交換 | 巨大規模で止まらない運用 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0f3160b1-f851-42f7-8e67-0f2932a61092","kind":"heading","order":710,"section_id":"sec_ff60d045-7c78-4990-aa65-ed61e213f48b","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"## 絶ノイアの観測","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e75ab21a-3e63-491e-b553-0628bf640c39","kind":"paragraph","order":711,"section_id":"sec_ff60d045-7c78-4990-aa65-ed61e213f48b","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"最速のGPUを空いている場所へ探しに行くより、必要なDataの近くへ仕事を送る方が速い瞬間が増えます。計算資源の地図が、Schedulerの内側へ入ってきます。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8cc62bcd-d556-4a39-890b-1cb1fe93653d","kind":"paragraph","order":712,"section_id":"sec_ff60d045-7c78-4990-aa65-ed61e213f48b","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"私は「Data plane」「Control plane」「Failure plane」を別々の話題にせず、一つのAIインフラが通過する連続した設計課題として観測します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4dfb8d88-7ec4-4a9a-b6ac-c1f3d280875f","kind":"paragraph","order":713,"section_id":"sec_ff60d045-7c78-4990-aa65-ed61e213f48b","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"Peak性能ではなくEffective利用率を見る。発表された最大性能や市場規模だけでなく、実装、量産、運用が同じ速度で前進しているかを確かめたいからです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_beabfeda-d408-4612-a887-b0a3e567bf33","kind":"heading","order":714,"section_id":"sec_6be13ee9-609c-427c-bb62-df20260a242d","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"## Sil-Kathnaの記録","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9c36605a-6524-49c2-a72d-6fd9811896ee","kind":"paragraph","order":715,"section_id":"sec_6be13ee9-609c-427c-bb62-df20260a242d","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"道を渡る荷を減らし、荷のある倉へ使者を送れ。動かぬこともまた、最速の移動である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1a2887e4-5f63-4523-b439-df571e0c4443","kind":"paragraph","order":716,"section_id":"sec_6be13ee9-609c-427c-bb62-df20260a242d","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"私は「Data plane」「Control plane」「Failure plane」を、計算する文明へ続く三つの門として石板に刻む。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bead089a-5cdf-46e7-9ede-21835cc97dd8","kind":"paragraph","order":717,"section_id":"sec_6be13ee9-609c-427c-bb62-df20260a242d","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"最初の門だけが開いても、次の門に熱、傷、遅れが残れば、光と記憶は炉心へ届かない。強い器とは、最も華やかな石を持つ器ではなく、異なる工房の歩調を長い夜の中で揃えられる器である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b61a7ca-074f-403b-8e37-06fe024e2149","kind":"paragraph","order":718,"section_id":"sec_6be13ee9-609c-427c-bb62-df20260a242d","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"ゆえに私は、Peak性能ではなくEffective利用率を見る。その結果が一時の輝きではなく、繰り返し作り、直し、動かせる秩序になったかを見届ける。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1fdf7965-d83c-4226-9fb2-27fb41e7b575","kind":"heading","order":719,"section_id":"sec_b5c002f8-2c56-444d-9600-50cafbddadf7","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 二人の短い対話","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c97d2f5-7ddf-408c-8fa7-879b04bda7d8","kind":"paragraph","order":720,"section_id":"sec_b5c002f8-2c56-444d-9600-50cafbddadf7","character_id":null,"markdown":"**絶ノイア:** 将来のTopologyは利用者から隠れますが、Schedulerには今より鮮明に見えていなければならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_655d8344-de87-439d-963e-408e8c62102d","kind":"paragraph","order":721,"section_id":"sec_b5c002f8-2c56-444d-9600-50cafbddadf7","character_id":null,"markdown":"**Sil-Kathna:** 見えぬ都市を動かすには、すべての門と熱と傷を記した地図が要る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fe0d5967-1b1d-4251-99ef-bcdd1746d396","kind":"heading","order":722,"section_id":"sec_61a6ca13-0e6f-4e2c-b573-6d1c34adaa4e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 観測メモ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88d0c90f-269a-4bfa-83e7-036d56236124","kind":"list","order":723,"section_id":"sec_61a6ca13-0e6f-4e2c-b573-6d1c34adaa4e","character_id":null,"markdown":"- Peak性能ではなくEffective利用率を見る\n- KV PoolingとExpert配置を別の時間軸で設計する\n- 電力・冷却・保守性をFabric設計の外部条件にしない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd6abff1-be81-441e-becc-977119a9a86b","kind":"heading","order":724,"section_id":"sec_a49b1c0e-b331-4ee2-9ba5-a2987ce40adb","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 免責","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_918f59fd-a66c-484d-b58c-e3bbdd9da03b","kind":"paragraph","order":725,"section_id":"sec_a49b1c0e-b331-4ee2-9ba5-a2987ce40adb","character_id":null,"markdown":"この記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","render_override":null}],"audio":[],"omitted_media":[],"figures":[],"package_sha256":"2997d0a30a467309eabc61393fa8332db13dd81663760f3baf8fa58c4e2f8a85","record_type":"article","schema_version":"noia-public-article-1.1.0","dataset_version":"2026.09.23.4","urls":{"source_url":null,"release_path":"/articles/rev_cfe5b9e3-26a7-41f5-bf9e-934074846f04/","canonical_url":"https://noia-grid.pages.dev/articles/rev_cfe5b9e3-26a7-41f5-bf9e-934074846f04/"},"time":{"created_at":{"value":null,"precision":"unknown","timezone":null,"status":"unknown","basis":"Metadata only; not evidence of historical body 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AI時代の「光のファブ」を解剖する――1.6Tを作るCMOS・SiPh・InP・光実装・Module量産\n\nOptical DSP、SiPh、CWレーザー、InP、光実装――1.6Tトランシーバーは世界のどこで、どう作られているのか\n\nAIデータセンターの光通信を追っていると、Innolight、Eoptolink、Coherent、Lumentum、Broadcom、Marvell、Tower Semiconductor、GlobalFoundries、Fabrinetといった名前が次々に現れる。\n\nしかし、これらをすべて「光トランシーバー企業」として一括りにすると、サプライチェーンの本質を見失う。\n\n1個の1.6Tbps光トランシーバーの中には、実際には少なくとも5種類の製造産業が存在している。\n\nOptical DSP / TIA / Driverを作る電子半導体ファブ\n\n光回路をシリコン上に形成するSiPhファウンドリ\n\n光源となるCWレーザーやEMLを作るInPファブ\n\nそれらを組み合わせるOptical Packaging\n\n最終的なOSFP/QSFPモジュールを量産・検査するModule工場\n\nしかも、それぞれウェハ径も、材料も、製造装置も、歩留まりを決める要素も違う。\n\nAI光通信は単なる「光モジュール産業」ではない。\n\n先端CMOS、SiPh、III-V半導体、精密光学実装という複数の半導体産業が、一つの製品の中で合流する産業なのである。\n\n## 第1章　1.6Tトランシーバーを分解すると何が入っているのか\n\n現在の1.6T DR8を基準に考える。\n\n基本構造は、\n\n8本 × 200Gbps PAM4 = 1.6Tbps\n\nである。BroadcomのSian3やMarvell Araは3nm・200G/lane世代へ進んでおり、Marvell Ara Tは8本の200Gbps電気入力と8本の200Gbps光側インターフェースを持つ。BroadcomのSian3も800G/1.6T向け3nm・200G/lane DSPである。 (Marvell Technology)\n\n典型的なSiPh型1.6Tトランシーバーを分解すると次のようになる。\n\nSwitch ASIC\n    │\n    │ 8 × 200G PAM4\n    ▼\n┌──────────────────┐\n│ Optical DSP      │\n│ Broadcom/Marvell │\n└────────┬─────────┘\n         │\n      Driver\n         │\n         ▼\n┌──────────────────┐\n│ Silicon Photonics│\n│       PIC        │\n└───────┬──────────┘\n        ▲\n        │\n    CW Laser\nCoherent/Lumentum/\n Sumitomo Electric\n        │\n        ▼\n  8 optical lanes\n        │\n      Fiber\n\n受信側\n\nFiber\n ↓\nPhotodiode\n ↓\nTIA\n ↓\nDSP\n ↓\nSwitch ASIC\n\n代表的BOM\n\n| 部品 | 1.6Tでの役割 | 数量イメージ |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Optical DSP | PAM4補正、CDR、FEC、Retiming | 1ダイ前後 |\n| Driver | SiPh変調器を高速駆動 | 8ch分 |\n| TIA | PDの微小電流を電圧へ変換・増幅 | 8ch分 |\n| SiPh PIC | 変調器、導波路、PD、分波器など | 1～複数 |\n| CW Laser | SiPhへ連続光を供給 | 1個以上、構造依存 |\n| Photodiode | 光→電流変換 | 8ch分 |\n| Fiber Array | PICとファイバーを接続 | 8Tx＋8Rx等 |\n| PMIC/MCU/EEPROM | 電源・制御 | 複数 |\n| PCB | ICと光エンジンを接続 | 1 |\n| OSFP筐体 | 機械・熱インターフェース | 1 |\n| Heat Sink | DSP/レーザー等の放熱 | 1式 |\n\nここで重要なのは、8レーンだからCWレーザーも必ず8ダイ必要というわけではないことである。\n\n1個の高出力CWレーザーをSiPh PIC内部で複数レーンへ分配する方式もあれば、レーザーアレイを使う構造もある。CPOでは複数のOptical EngineへExternal Laser Sourceから光を配る方式も考えられる。\n\nしたがってCWレーザー需要は単純な「トランシーバー個数×8」ではなく、\n\n必要総光出力 ÷ 1レーザー当たり出力\n\nとして考える必要がある。\n\n### 図解｜1.6T ModuleのBOMと信号経路\n\n![1.6T ModuleのBOMと信号経路 01](/media/07cb0fa80db36a0b77cf7f5a687815e68db35889b2401652b92964b39a3e1d64-content.webp)\n\n![1.6T ModuleのBOMと信号経路 02](/media/6f0447046d43b303167d1cc29c606a1a80b07bb3484c212d2752929a2ab5a484-content.webp)\n\n![1.6T ModuleのBOMと信号経路 03](/media/588562f90315407b2a21111913a330a2b9f109d932438f0d188f68b597053893-content.webp)\n\n## 第2章　Optical DSP――光通信なのに最初のファブは3nm CMOS\n\n最初の「光ファブ」は、実は光ではない。\n\nBroadcomやMarvellのOptical DSPである。\n\nDSPは、\n\nPAM4信号処理\n\nEqualization\n\nClock/Data Recovery\n\nRetiming\n\nFEC\n\nGearbox\n\nLink monitoring\n\nなどを担当する。\n\nDriverは送信側でSiPh ModulatorやEMLを動かす高速出力回路。\n\nTIAは受信側でPhotodiodeが発生する微小電流を電圧へ変換する高速増幅器である。\n\n送信\n\nDSP → Driver → Modulator → 光\n\n受信\n\n光 → Photodiode → TIA → DSP\n\nMarvell Ara Tでは8本の200G/lane laser/modulator driverそのものをDSPへ統合している。つまり高速化によって機能量は増える一方、外付けDriverダイを削減する方向にも進んでいる。 (Marvell Technology)\n\nBroadcom BCM83628も3nm・1.6T・8:8 PAM4 PHYにLaser Driverを統合する。 (Broadcom)\n\nBroadcomは製造会社なのか\n\nBroadcomは完全なファブレスではない。\n\nしかし3nm CMOSなどの標準ロジックについては外部ファウンドリへの依存が大きく、2025年度にはContract Manufacturer経由で製造されたウェハの約95%をTSMCが製造した。組立・テストでもTSMC、ASE、Amkor、Foxconn、SPILなどを利用している。 (SEC)\n\n一方でBroadcomは、独自性の高いGaAs/InPレーザーやVCSELなどのIII-V半導体については内部ファブを維持しており、主要III-Vウェハ製造を米国とシンガポールで行っている。 (SEC)\n\nしたがってBroadcomは、\n\n先端CMOS＝外部ファウンドリ独自III-V＝一部内製\n\nというFab-lite型である。\n\nMarvellはより純粋なファブレス\n\nMarvellは2026年度10-Kで明確に自らを「fabless supplier」としている。DSP、TIA、Driver、SerDesなどの設計が本体であり、ウェハ製造をファウンドリへ委託する。 (SEC)\n\n### 図解｜Optical DSP・Driver・TIA\n\n![Optical DSP・Driver・TIA 01](/media/92750d8b584bc63ebca1599d21ccffb621635eff85d77dfe79974f64bc8d0c16-content.webp)\n\n![Optical DSP・Driver・TIA 02](/media/108057cd620de475aa25387d6a7666a43806f308911e7495b582ecac644185da-content.webp)\n\n![Optical DSP・Driver・TIA 03](/media/a0f5643b718cf1c2a1d07669960fd2726185f32e61583607bc86622cf610366c-content.webp)\n\n## 第3章　Optical DSPを作る世界最大の工場――TSMC\n\nBroadcom/MarvellがDSPを設計しても、それだけではチップにならない。\n\nフォトマスクを用意し、\n\nSilicon wafer\n ↓\nLithography\n ↓\nEtch\n ↓\nIon implantation\n ↓\nThin-film deposition\n ↓\nTransistor形成\n ↓\n多層Cu配線\n ↓\nWafer test\n ↓\nDicing\n\nという先端CMOS工程を経てようやくDSPダイになる。\n\nその最大の製造基盤が台湾TSMCである。\n\n2026年第1四半期の世界ファウンドリ売上シェアは、\n\nTSMC：72.0%\n\nSamsung Foundry：6.5%\n\nSMIC：5.1%\n\nUMC：3.9%\n\nGlobalFoundries：3.3%\n\nだった。これは光DSP専用シェアではなく、半導体ファウンドリ全体の売上シェアである。 (TrendForce)\n\nTSMCの2025年年間製造能力は1,700万枚超の12インチ換算ウェハ。実際の年間出荷は1,500万枚だった。3nmだけで2025年ウェハ売上の24%を占めた。 (TSMC)\n\nしたがってOptical DSPの供給能力という意味では、InPレーザー専用ファブとは桁の違う巨大なCMOSエコシステムに乗っている。\n\nこれは光通信のボトルネックを考える上で重要である。\n\nDSPは難しいが、巨大な先端CMOS量産基盤が存在する。InPレーザーは市場そのものがはるかに小さく、設備も特殊である。\n\n### 図解｜3nm CMOS FabとOptical DSP\n\n![3nm CMOS FabとOptical DSP 01](/media/37a41a81cf4b196c87956408e5f05b06266a55e6cf40502be08b81a7e5a2ba8c-content.webp)\n\n![3nm CMOS FabとOptical DSP 02](/media/e08750f4d087ac67d57a7637702cf11e0ad3b0d58e4b741f5add0d32e8b78037-content.webp)\n\n## 第4章　SiPhファウンドリ――「光の配線」をウェハ上に作る\n\nSilicon Photonics、SiPhでは、シリコン上にトランジスタだけでなく、\n\nOptical Waveguide\n\nMach-Zehnder Modulator\n\nRing Modulator\n\nSplitter\n\nMux/Demux\n\nGe Photodiode\n\nGrating Coupler\n\nEdge Coupler\n\nなどを形成する。\n\nつまり、\n\n銅配線の代わりに、光が走る導波路をウェハ上へ作る\n\n技術である。\n\n代表的工程を簡略化すると、\n\nSOI wafer\n ↓\nSilicon patterning\n ↓\nWaveguide etch\n ↓\nModulator用doping\n ↓\nGe photodiode形成\n ↓\nOxide / dielectric\n ↓\nMetal wiring\n ↓\nCoupler形成\n ↓\nWafer-level optical test\n ↓\nDicing\n\nとなる。\n\nGFは現在100～200G/λ世代を量産し、400G/λへのロードマップを示している。Mach-Zehnder、MicroRing、RAMZIなど複数の変調器、Photodetector、SiN waveguide、edge-couplingなどをプラットフォーム化している。 (GlobalFoundries)\n\n### 図解｜SiPhウェハの構造と工程\n\n![SiPhウェハの構造と工程 01](/media/d22b3b00dfd060bb060e875783d7ed09f62b557d1fe42cd41c7ba23dfb9fdc02-content.webp)\n\n![SiPhウェハの構造と工程 02](/media/892f8b079bb86257d940ae6c7a1dda0523ece6b185c3b59753ec304db2bce287-content.webp)\n\n## 第5章　GlobalFoundries――米国＋シンガポールの巨大SiPhファウンドリ\n\nGlobalFoundriesは2025年にAdvanced Micro Foundryを買収し、SiPh事業をさらに拡大した。GFは現在、自らを世界最大のpure-play silicon photonics foundryと位置付けている。 (GlobalFoundries)\n\n現在のSiPh製造拠点は、\n\n🇺🇸 Malta, New York\n\n🇸🇬 Singapore\n\nを中心に300mm、さらに旧AMFの200mm Singaporeラインを持つ。 (GlobalFoundries)\n\nGF Singapore全体では、\n\nCleanroom：8.7万m²\n\n年間ウェハ能力：約150万枚・300mm換算\n\nである。注意すべきなのは、これはSiPh専用能力ではなくCMOS、RF-SOI、SiGe、Powerなどを含むSingapore工場全体の数字だという点だ。 (GlobalFoundries)\n\nGFはNew YorkにAdvanced Packaging and Photonics Centerも整備しており、SiPhウェハ製造からfiber attach、packaging/testまで範囲を拡大している。 (GlobalFoundries)\n\n### 図解｜GlobalFoundriesのSiPh供給網\n\n![GlobalFoundriesのSiPh供給網 01](/media/93796499531531017fcf53a961ff3a6031563780d28f24a2307275cef6ca11c9-content.webp)\n\n![GlobalFoundriesのSiPh供給網 02](/media/c7542ed9843ef016c3e0329919faaa6b22f7cabc8ba19aad2de3049f866ee20f-content.webp)\n\n## 第6章　Tower Semiconductor――日本が世界のSiPh量産拠点へ浮上する\n\nTower Semiconductorは現在、AI光通信で最も注目すべきファウンドリの一つである。\n\n2025年にはSiGe＋SiPh売上が4.21億ドルまで増加。\n\nTower自身は、1.6T向けSilicon PICについて「by far the majority supplier」と説明している。SiPhはNewport Beach、San Antonio、魚津など複数拠点へ展開されている。\n\n特に重要なのがキャパ増強である。\n\nTowerは2026年初頭時点で、SiPh能力を2025年第4四半期の実際の月間出荷量に対して5倍超へ引き上げる計画を示し、計画能力の70%以上が2028年まで予約済み、または予約手続き中としている。\n\nさらに2026年5月には、2027年分だけで、\n\nSiPh売上契約13億ドル＋capacity reservation前払金2.9億ドル\n\nを公表した。 (Tower Semiconductor タワーセミコンダクター)\n\nそして2026年7月、日本で約30億ドルの大型投資を発表。\n\n新井 Fab 6 → 300mm SiPh＋Advanced Packaging\n\n魚津 Fab 7 → 300mm増強\n\nFab 7隣接地 → 新300mm Fab\n\n2027年第4四半期：第1段階量産準備完了\n\n日本政府支援：約10億ドル\n\nという計画である。 (Tower Semiconductor)\n\nつまり日本は今後、\n\nInP材料・レーザーだけでなく、300mm SiPhファウンドリの世界的製造拠点\n\nにもなる可能性がある。\n\n### 図解｜Towerの日本SiPh量産拠点\n\n![Towerの日本SiPh量産拠点 01](/media/c490bbdc2a7ebf856b68b8ce3e9edd552bb5dbf5fa5dfdb26a342f02e64f59b6-content.webp)\n\n![Towerの日本SiPh量産拠点 02](/media/f4437b120bec6bf7f08014ea95a38bdce89677ff995f0e8ec500370c2450f476-content.webp)\n\n## 第7章　台湾・韓国・シンガポールもSiPhへ参入\n\nTSMC――台湾\n\nTSMCはCOUPE――Compact Universal Photonic Engineを展開している。\n\nこれはPICとEICを近接・積層し、\n\nElectrical IC\n     ║\nPhotonic IC\n\nとすることで電気配線を短くし、将来的にCoWoSと統合してCPOへ持っていく技術である。 (TSMC Research)\n\nTSMCは2025年年次報告でもCOUPEをAdvanced Packaging/3D integration技術の一つに位置付けている。 (TSMC)\n\nUMC――台湾企業、SiPh量産はシンガポール\n\nUMCは2026年7月、Singapore 12インチFabからSILITH向け1.6T SiPh PICの初量産ウェハを出荷した。\n\n開発開始から量産準備まで18カ月で到達している。 (UMC)\n\nUMC全体の能力は12インチ換算で月40万枚超だが、これもSiPh専用ではない。 (UMC)\n\nSamsung――韓国\n\nSamsung Foundryも2026年にSiPh事業基盤の確立を公式決算で言及した。報道ベースでは300mm SiPh PDKを準備し、顧客設計獲得後の量産を視野に入れている。 (Samsung Global Newsroom)\n\nSamsungはファウンドリ全体では世界2位だが、merchant SiPhではGFやTowerより後発である。\n\nこれは逆に言えば、\n\n韓国には巨大なCMOS量産基盤があるが、SiPhはこれから本格化する\n\nという構図である。\n\n### 図解｜アジアのSiPh量産参入\n\n![アジアのSiPh量産参入 01](/media/9c070c7e229648c47d3039c25b7f2e91c6163f6df324d68af18f839c480d75a3-content.webp)\n\n![アジアのSiPh量産参入 02](/media/8d3ebed5c2032bc57509fbcf606454d2ff2a610a65cdfc738e3008916b158ee3-content.webp)\n\n![アジアのSiPh量産参入 03](/media/1a7deceab595251ea21cb8c0e636a30e8bf6392b750a3ca36ff6f59879fd2993-content.webp)\n\n## 第8章　CWレーザーファブ――SiPhが増えるほどInPが必要になる\n\nSiPhの大きな弱点は、シリコンそのものが効率的な光源になりにくいことだ。\n\nそこで外部からInP CWレーザーを使う。\n\nElectricity\n ↓\nInP CW Laser\n ↓\n連続光\n ↓\nSiPh Modulator\n ↓\nPAM4 optical signal\n\nEMLとの違いは重要である。\n\nEML\n\nInP DFB Laser\n      +\nEAM Modulator\n\nSiPh\n\nInP CW Laser\n      +\nSilicon Modulator\n\nつまりSiPhが伸びるとInPが不要になるのではない。\n\nむしろ、\n\n変調器はSiへ移るが、光源としてInP CWレーザーが大量に必要になる\n\nのである。\n\n住友電工はIntra-DC向け光デバイスの数量構成について、\n\n| 年 | EML | CW-LD |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 2024 | 76% | 24% |\n| 2026 | 55% | 45% |\n| 2028 | 31% | 69% |\n\nと予測している。 (Sumitomo Electric)\n\n### 図解｜SiPhとInP CWレーザー\n\n![SiPhとInP CWレーザー 01](/media/0614701a7d086a8aa394c0eb38f6c56d54a3a52ee0736674da1bdecacc4bf45b-content.webp)\n\n![SiPhとInP CWレーザー 02](/media/92f9459fa41476b3a266ec2d9f375adf9326ed5cbc1dd2fae3282e6dcb5665e8-content.webp)\n\n![SiPhとInP CWレーザー 03](/media/365bf2acd4fa0efcd3079270c9300b867430f2a2bba4825f651d2b93ccd1b4aa-content.webp)\n\n## 第9章　InPレーザーはどう作るのか\n\nInPファブは300mm CMOSとはまったく違う。\n\n代表的工程は、\n\nInP substrate\n ↓\nEpitaxial growth\n ↓\nMQW active layer\n ↓\nDFB grating形成\n ↓\n再成長\n ↓\nMesa / waveguide processing\n ↓\nP/N contacts\n ↓\nWafer test\n ↓\nCleave / Dicing\n ↓\nFacet coating\n ↓\nDie attach\n ↓\nBurn-in / reliability test\n\nとなる。\n\n特に難しいのが、\n\nEpitaxyの均一性\n\nMQW成長\n\nDFB格子周期\n\nRegrowth\n\nWaveguide寸法\n\nFacet coating\n\n熱抵抗\n\nAging/Burn-in\n\nである。\n\n住友電工もCW-LD高出力化では、結晶成長時の温度・ガス比・不純物濃度を精密制御し、電流リークを抑えることが重要だと説明している。 (Sumitomo Electric)\n\nCMOSなら巨大ウェハ上で数十億個のトランジスタを一括製造する。\n\nInPレーザーでは、\n\n「発光性能」「波長」「光出力」「寿命」そのものが歩留まりに直結する。\n\nこの違いが増産難易度を高めている。\n\n### 図解｜InPレーザー製造と断面\n\n![InPレーザー製造と断面 01](/media/972a79f4a0ef1255b06a75caa1ba5505a26e33cbec8b84f489a918eff8aa0413-content.webp)\n\n![InPレーザー製造と断面 02](/media/5f925e76359c2935eb64a617b1dba851262dc613239d1c9d1b758bc3a2fe311f-content.webp)\n\n![InPレーザー製造と断面 03](/media/d44b9e9b0b9ff40f111283376e184d312148849382b2512726a15a68e7fa085d-content.webp)\n\n## 第10章　Coherent――米国とスウェーデンの6インチInP\n\nCoherentはInPで最も強力な垂直統合企業の一つである。\n\n主要拠点として、\n\n🇺🇸 Sherman, Texas\n\n🇸🇪 Järfälla, Sweden\n\nに6インチInP能力を構築している。 (Coherent Inc)\n\n従来3インチから6インチへ移行すると、理論面積は4倍になる。\n\nCoherent自身も、\n\n1ウェハ当たりデバイス数：約4倍Die cost：60%以上低減\n\nを見込んでいる。 (Coherent Inc)\n\nさらにShermanのCWレーザーについては、6インチ化によって生産能力5倍超を目標としている。 (Coherent Inc)\n\nこれはAI光通信において非常に大きい。\n\nSiPh foundryが300mmへ拡大しても、光源が3インチInPのままでは供給のバランスが崩れる。\n\nそのためCoherentは、\n\n3インチ→6インチ\n\nというInP側の「大径化」を進めている。\n\n### 図解｜Coherentの6インチInP\n\n![Coherentの6インチInP 01](/media/2000c10064a65fce6b2a866aaee20dd797f1e3b80d0973dde75ee8078234e1c3-content.webp)\n\n![Coherentの6インチInP 02](/media/8f07abee15e5b7ef92e75881fc3ca97d2a7981469f1bd43f82c5274ac15faa0e-content.webp)\n\n![Coherentの6インチInP 03](/media/d3187207db99b6f833862264aff80d9a47fa5a664d4dbb6fb479e45a0dcd5837-content.webp)\n\n## 第11章　Lumentum――米国・英国・日本のInPネットワーク\n\nLumentumもInP垂直統合企業である。\n\n同社によれば既存ウェハFabは、\n\n🇺🇸 San Jose, California\n\n🇬🇧 Caswell, UK\n\n🇯🇵 Sagamihara\n\n🇯🇵 Takao\n\nの4拠点。\n\n主なAssembly/TestはThailandに置いている。 (Lumentum)\n\nさらに2026年にはNorth Carolina・GreensboroにQorvoから取得した24万平方フィートの施設を6インチInP工場へ改造すると発表した。\n\nCW/UHPレーザーは2028年半ばから立ち上げ予定である。 (Lumentum Investor Relations)\n\nLumentum自身はこの拠点について、完全稼働時の潜在規模を年50億ドル相当のchip-level revenue capacityと説明している。これは実際の売上予想ではなく、同社が示す生産能力換算値として読む必要がある。 (Lumentum)\n\n### 図解｜LumentumのInP増産網\n\n![LumentumのInP増産網 01](/media/ce432b7c0cdf8b5ffaa827d935c22ecfc20baa02ba6439f547b30ccf31e970bc-content.webp)\n\n![LumentumのInP増産網 02](/media/4a4f6b340ad2d78ec14c08660fd88399b3e6e4558377d5981b145ac26dcea801-content.webp)\n\n## 第12章　日本の住友電工――InP基板からCWレーザーまで\n\n日本では住友電工が非常に重要である。\n\n同社は、\n\n4～6インチInP substrate\n\n200G/wavelength EML\n\n350mW超級CW-LD\n\nを持つ。 (Sumitomo Electric)\n\n2023年を基準にした2028年計画では、\n\nIntra-DC向け光デバイス能力：約12倍InP substrate能力：約2.4倍\n\nを掲げている。 (Sumitomo Electric)\n\nしたがって日本は光ファブの中で、\n\nTower＝SiPhSumitomo＝InP substrate＋laser\n\nという二つの重要なポジションを持ち始めている。\n\n### 図解｜住友電工の垂直統合\n\n![住友電工の垂直統合 01](/media/71fe03fe4d721a8f1a49b8eaa7ab0620b668022db638f08fa5016ecf57d4f3bb-content.webp)\n\n![住友電工の垂直統合 02](/media/39e219fffb89e02b1310e7d8c1388268f7bc6bbb3b513e814e08a8b698443821-content.webp)\n\n![住友電工の垂直統合 03](/media/564429e950b24b57bfb124827c790a2831a881b878734ba9812dd65db368b588-content.webp)\n\n## 第13章　欧州のPure-play InP Foundry――SMART Photonics\n\nCoherent、Lumentum、住友電工は基本的に自社製品を作るIDM型である。\n\nそれに対しオランダのSMART Photonicsは、\n\n顧客がInP PICを設計し、SMARTがウェハを製造する\n\nというpure-play InP foundryに近い。\n\n2024年に3インチから4インチへ全面移行し、同社によればチップ生産能力は約2倍になった。 (SMART Photonics)\n\nさらに2026年にはオランダで1.5億ユーロの6インチInP pilot line建設が開始された。 (SMART Photonics)\n\n現在のInP世界を見ると、\n\nIDM\n\nCoherent\nLumentum\nSumitomo\nBroadcom一部\n\nVS\n\nPure-play InP Foundry\n\nSMART Photonics\n\nという構造になっている。\n\n### 図解｜Pure-play InP Foundry\n\n![Pure-play InP Foundry 01](/media/54adc50cb895679d62effe9c275f4a024cd81a17b62b4d9cd17916ebe6aaf882-content.webp)\n\n![Pure-play InP Foundry 02](/media/b12cbf352362d20cbaea9f384f9e3bca0e6543f70537eca1effc3a5092669f87-content.webp)\n\n![Pure-play InP Foundry 03](/media/1b8172aa1c077501c09d277f3deeab639b06e70bc86268aad4cdb63a214131d7-content.webp)\n\n## 第14章　世界の「光ファブ」を地域別に並べる\n\nOptical DSP / Electrical IC\n\n| 地域 | 企業 | 主な役割 | 指標 |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 🇹🇼 台湾 | TSMC | 3nm DSP等 | 世界Foundry 72%、年間17M枚超12\" eq |\n| 🇰🇷 韓国 | Samsung | 先端CMOS | Foundry 6.5% |\n| 🇹🇼 台湾 | UMC | TIA/Driver等成熟系候補 | 月40万枚超12\" eq |\n| 🇺🇸 米国 | Broadcom | 設計＋一部III-V | CMOSはTSMC中心外注wafer約95%がTSMC |\n| 🇺🇸 米国 | Marvell | DSP/TIA/Driver設計 | Fabless自社Fabなし |\n\n(TrendForce)\n\nSilicon Photonics\n\n| 地域 | 企業 | ウェハ | 公開指標 |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 🇺🇸/🇸🇬 | GF | 200/300mm | Singapore総能力1.5M枚/年 |\n| 🇯🇵/🇺🇸/🇮🇱 | Tower | 200/300mm | SiPh能力Q4'25比5倍超計画 |\n| 🇹🇼 | TSMC | 300mm系 | COUPE/CPO |\n| 🇸🇬 | UMC | 300mm | 1.6T PIC量産開始 |\n| 🇰🇷 | Samsung | 300mm | 2026年SiPh基盤構築 |\n| 🇨🇳 | 中国Foundry群 | 300mm化進行 | 拡張局面 |\n\nTowerは日本で約30億ドルを投じ、新井・魚津をSiPh/SiGe/Advanced Packaging拠点へ拡張する。 (Tower Semiconductor)\n\nInP / CW Laser\n\n地域企業ウェハ指標🇺🇸/🇸🇪Coherent6\"Sherman能力5倍超🇺🇸/🇬🇧/🇯🇵Lumentum複数、6\"拡大Greensboro 240k ft²🇯🇵Sumitomo4～6\"光デバイス能力2028年約12倍🇳🇱SMART Photonics4\"→6\" pilot4\"化で約2倍🇺🇸/🇸🇬BroadcomIII-V独自InP/GaAs一部内製\n\n(Coherent Inc)\n\n### 図解｜世界の光Fab四層構造\n\n![世界の光Fab四層構造 01](/media/d975c56a9dc28884cf4b79ae438c36fa8330ee4d54f0b52e88078585866b0629-content.webp)\n\n![世界の光Fab四層構造 02](/media/35690a48c935ac3e7e9ad688875f7205d154afa95af962379fd0beb4cad63ce8-content.webp)\n\n![世界の光Fab四層構造 03](/media/afb406b298ae004ddb5ffa5ff3cc0c29b197415dfb12df8a3e890dc7d5b6e36f-content.webp)\n\n## 第15章　Module工場――中国が圧倒的に強い\n\nウェハを全部作っても光トランシーバーは完成しない。\n\n最終的には、\n\nDSPLaserSiPh PICTIADriverFiberPCB\n\nを一つのモジュールへまとめなければならない。\n\nこの「Module manufacturing」では中国企業が非常に強い。\n\nTrendForceは2026年について、\n\n中国系光モジュールメーカー：約56%の世界製造能力Innolight＋Eoptolink＋CIG：約46%\n\nと推計している。 (trendforce.com)\n\n一方で、中国系メーカーのEML/CWレーザー製造能力は、\n\n2025年：16.05%2028年予想：27.58%\n\nにとどまる。 (trendforce.com)\n\nつまり現在の光サプライチェーンには非常に大きな非対称性が存在する。\n\n中国\n\nModule assembly\n████████████████████████████\n\nOptical packaging\n████████████████████████\n\nInP Laser\n████████\n\n下流モジュールは中国が強い。しかし上流レーザーは依然として米国・欧州・日本への依存度が高い。\n\n### 図解｜中国Module量産と非対称性\n\n![中国Module量産と非対称性 01](/media/7fc35b3d7aa7e0c48b8a08fe9f83a93bad01efab3025f6f10c08467eda3a7347-content.webp)\n\n![中国Module量産と非対称性 02](/media/0fbc8de7588f0c6819c7d14e1b1f4ea9092d020aab96b55ee1e245131b106625-content.webp)\n\n## 第16章　InnolightとEoptolinkの規模\n\nLightCountingによる2025年光トランシーバー市場全体の売上は約238億ドルだった。 (LightCounting)\n\nその中で、\n\nInnolight：2025年約53億ドルEoptolink：約35億ドル\n\nまで成長したとLightCountingは推計・集計している。Eoptolinkは2025年にCoherentを抜き、トランシーバー専業ランキング2位へ上がった。 (LightCounting)\n\nInnolightは、\n\nSuzhou\n\nTaiwan\n\nThailand\n\nに生産拠点を持つ。 (Tower Semiconductor)\n\nSiPhではTower PH18Mを利用した400G/800G製品を既に量産している。つまりInnolightがSiPh製品を設計しても、ウェハそのものはTowerのようなファウンドリへ委託できる。 (Tower Semiconductor)\n\nEoptolinkも完成モジュールメーカーだが、自社で大規模なTO packaging/test lineを保有し、TOSA、ROSA、BOSAなどの光サブアセンブリを製造している。 (Eoptolink)\n\nまた800G世代では「in-house PIC」を使ったSiPh製品を公表している。ただしこれはPIC設計/IPの内製を示すもので、SiPhウェハ前工程まで自社Fabで製造していることを意味するものではない。 (Eoptolink)\n\n### 図解｜InnolightとEoptolinkの規模・内製度\n\n![InnolightとEoptolinkの規模・内製度 01](/media/93cf6277ac6e8dc6f9d49f0bc881972bc3a38cb2262b09f77ab0811880886779-content.webp)\n\n![InnolightとEoptolinkの規模・内製度 02](/media/a243436623230e7df4c284455079ee3fa876f25dbc518528338870e2f2ffacc4-content.webp)\n\n![InnolightとEoptolinkの規模・内製度 03](/media/d0dba95e0365e299230e0f980552016cccbf4905277a8d59e482329a35804803-content.webp)\n\n## 第17章　1個の1.6Tは実際にはこう世界を移動する\n\n代表的なSiPh型1.6Tを、企業別に一本のサプライチェーンとして表す。\n\n厳密には直列ではなく、複数の部品が並列で製造され最後に合流する。\n\n【電子系】\n\nUSA\nMarvell / Broadcom\nDSP / Driver / TIA 設計\n          │\n          ▼\nTaiwan\nTSMCなど\n3nm CMOS wafer fab\n          │\n          ▼\nDSP / Electrical IC die\n          │\n          │\n          │\n          ├─────────────────────┐\n          │                     │\n\n【SiPh系】\n\nUSA / Israel / Japan\nTower\nまたは\nUSA / Singapore\nGlobalFoundries\n          │\n          ▼\nSiPh wafer\n          │\n          ▼\nPIC die\n          │\n          │\n          ├─────────────────────┤\n\n【光源系】\n\nUSA / Sweden\nCoherent\n\nUSA / UK / Japan\nLumentum\n\nJapan\nSumitomo Electric\n          │\n          ▼\nInP CW Laser\n          │\n          │\n          └─────────────────────┤\n                                │\n                                ▼\n\n【Optical Packaging】\n\nChina\nInnolight / Eoptolink\n\nまたは\n\nThailand\nFabrinet\n\nまたは\n\nCoherent自社\n          │\n          ▼\n\nDSP attach\nTIA / Driver attach\nPIC attach\nLaser attach\nFiber attach\nActive alignment\nThermal management\nOptical test\nBurn-in\nPCB assembly\nOSFP assembly\n          │\n          ▼\n\n1.6T\n\nこれが現代の光トランシーバーである。\n\n「中国製」「米国製」「台湾製」という一国だけの概念では説明できない。\n\n### 図解｜世界分業で作る1.6T Module\n\n![世界分業で作る1.6T Module 01](/media/c6780ccfd908a04b3694eb7c185ea8f89c8159c3a19b1df1739f47ec8e0ac867-content.webp)\n\n![世界分業で作る1.6T Module 02](/media/8dc163846f38393c5b779e3e3c7a406bb5f7f6e749bb367acb9beecc9afcd6a7-content.webp)\n\n![世界分業で作る1.6T Module 03](/media/d5ad4c5adc3659f47f7764bb1b9bfb9b075f48042a2e2f21a30a80340cc71207-content.webp)\n\n## 第18章　Optical Packaging――光通信で最も過小評価されている工程\n\nOptical Packagingは単なる半導体後工程ではない。\n\n普通のICパッケージなら、\n\nDie\n ↓\nBump / Wire\n ↓\nSubstrate\n ↓\nPCB\n\nで主に電気接続を成立させればよい。\n\n光ではさらに、\n\nLaser\n ↓\nPIC waveguide\n ↓\nCoupler\n ↓\nFiber\n\nの位置を正確に合わせなければならない。\n\n光軸が数μmずれただけで挿入損失が大きく変わる。\n\nFabrinetは5軸Active Alignmentでsub-micron level toleranceを扱っている。 (Fabrinet)\n\n### 図解｜光結合とActive Alignment\n\n![光結合とActive Alignment 01](/media/c623182f57c9528b7c860dd8e0454a589fe5148f9e12879b3feaf675414d3d3c-content.webp)\n\n![光結合とActive Alignment 02](/media/a6543d58865fdc5c08626f968313e8d774ef79c11ba52cf4d547da280bfe727d-content.webp)\n\n![光結合とActive Alignment 03](/media/eb790f0c59d7ed3421a93cf8b84c9200b6b61913135945a28ed055894179555e-content.webp)\n\n![光結合とActive Alignment 04](/media/5e9d5850fec9009203c09a4b2a94690bb22d9a2890df430288d2bfa9624161f9-content.webp)\n\n## 第19章　Optical Packagingの全工程\n\n代表的工程は次のようになる。\n\n① Known Good Die選別\n\nDSP、TIA、PIC、Laserなどをウェハテストし、不良ダイを事前に排除する。\n\n高価な良品PICへ不良レーザーを実装してから捨てると、モジュール全体の歩留まりが急落するからだ。\n\n② Die Attach\n\nPIC、DSP、TIA、DriverなどをSubstrateやCarrierへ固定する。\n\nEpoxy attach\n\nSolder attach\n\nEutectic bonding\n\nFlip-chip\n\nなどを使う。\n\nFabrinetはdie attach、eutectic soldering、wire bonding、flip-chip、multi-chip moduleまで自社工程として提供している。 (Fabrinet)\n\n③ Electrical Interconnect\n\nDSP ↔ Driver ↔ PIC\nPD ↔ TIA ↔ DSP\n\nを、\n\nWire bond\n\nFlip chip\n\nMicro bump\n\nRDL\n\nなどで接続する。\n\n200G/laneになると配線距離そのものが性能・消費電力へ影響するため、PICとElectrical ICを近付けることが極めて重要になる。\n\n④ Laser Attach\n\nInP CW LaserをCarrierまたはPIC近傍へ固定する。\n\n同時に、\n\n光結合電気供給放熱\n\nの三つを成立させなければならない。\n\n⑤ Fiber Attach\n\nPICのEdge CouplerやGrating CouplerへFiber Arrayを接続する。\n\nここが光実装の難所の一つである。\n\n⑥ Passive Alignment\n\nV-groove、Mechanical stop、alignment markなどを使い、機械的基準だけで位置合わせする。\n\n高速・低コスト・量産向きである。\n\n⑦ Active Alignment\n\n実際にレーザーを発光させ、\n\nFiberをX方向へ移動\n ↓\n光量測定\n\nY方向\n ↓\n光量測定\n\nZ方向\n ↓\n光量測定\n\n角度変更\n ↓\n光量測定\n\n最大結合位置\n ↓\n接着・固定\n\nする。\n\nFabrinetが得意とする代表工程である。 (Fabrinet)\n\n⑧ Adhesive Cure / Fixation\n\n最適位置を見つけても、Epoxy硬化で収縮して位置が変われば意味がない。\n\nしたがって、\n\n接着剤\n\nUV Cure\n\nThermal cure\n\nSolder\n\nMechanical fixture\n\nまで含めた工程設計が必要になる。\n\n⑨ Thermal Packaging\n\nレーザーとDSPは発熱する。\n\nLaser ──→ Heat spreader\nDSP   ──→ Heat sink\nPIC   ──→ Package\n\nと熱経路を作る。\n\n⑩ Optical / Electrical Test\n\nOptical Output Power\n\nBER\n\nTDECQ\n\nEye\n\nWavelength\n\nInsertion Loss\n\nReceiver Sensitivity\n\nなどを検査する。\n\n⑪ Reliability / Burn-in\n\nレーザーは初期不良・寿命特性が重要なので、Burn-inや温度試験などを行う。\n\n⑫ Final Module Assembly\n\nPCB、OSFP housing、connector、heat sinkまで組み上げて完成する。\n\n### 図解｜Known Good DieからFinal Assemblyまで\n\n![Known Good DieからFinal Assemblyまで 01](/media/9583e030d5280df0fa18ba9f21b4857d6b763f9b1b705052817991696cea367b-content.webp)\n\n![Known Good DieからFinal Assemblyまで 02](/media/e30768a7d256c0399a20224b201a6ac3372a1cc31e5f8cafb106c9a17f50b027-content.webp)\n\n![Known Good DieからFinal Assemblyまで 03](/media/a69f9afb8a4169fe6893a5a19bfefa395f9ca91d6341943809f9b2d4e896cdbd-content.webp)\n\n![Known Good DieからFinal Assemblyまで 04](/media/43a8d879cd13cb7040fbe1ef414e5e8d1919a8fdbf948052dff33a28b97baf70-content.webp)\n\n![Known Good DieからFinal Assemblyまで 05](/media/dc6539fd74d5f268fc7f24fc078ee17730e56b74f3f963a6aeb6a21afc892c54-content.webp)\n\n![Known Good DieからFinal Assemblyまで 06](/media/2878ddbc570af21f3dda985c4af93fbfadd872aef4fbbfc773661b5306dbb1d2-content.webp)\n\n## 第20章　なぜOptical Packagingがボトルネックになるのか\n\nウェハ前工程は多数のダイを並列処理できる。\n\n300mm wafer\n\n○ ○ ○ ○ ○\n○ ○ ○ ○ ○\n○ ○ ○ ○ ○\n\n一括加工\n\n一方、Optical Packagingでは最終的に、\n\nLaser 1個\nPIC 1個\nFiber Array 1個\nDSP 1個\n\nを物理的に組み合わせる。\n\nActive Alignmentでは、各モジュールについて実際の光量を確認しながら調整する場合もある。\n\nしたがって、\n\nSiPhウェハ能力を2倍にしても、光実装ラインを2倍にしなければ完成モジュールは2倍にならない。\n\nAI光通信で前工程だけ見てはいけない最大の理由である。\n\n### 図解｜逐次組立と量産タクト\n\n![逐次組立と量産タクト 01](/media/a96d45216273e1815a742879d17edac48ccc514b00b3c8da50c94c634a675729-content.webp)\n\n![逐次組立と量産タクト 02](/media/7a2961e72666a0d485dff5409c804f61e2f5ac397acd882b401569a7c8bb475b-content.webp)\n\n![逐次組立と量産タクト 03](/media/641c296ab7c32bcab80f4a435265636171caead9b86dbcf4898695aa0bbd4934-content.webp)\n\n## 第21章　Fabrinet――「光版ASE＋Foxconn」\n\nFabrinetは光半導体を設計する企業ではない。\n\nその代わり、\n\nLaser packaging\n\nLens\n\nCoating\n\nDie attach\n\nWire bonding\n\nFlip-chip\n\nPassive alignment\n\nActive alignment\n\nPCBA\n\nOptical test\n\nFinal assembly\n\nまでを顧客向けに受託する。 (Fabrinet)\n\nつまり、\n\n部品は顧客が設計する。Fabrinetはそれを量産可能な光製品へ仕上げる。\n\nという会社である。\n\n2026年3月四半期のOptical Communications売上は8.887億ドルで、全売上の73.2%を占めた。 (SEC)\n\n2024年時点の施設面積は約370万平方フィート、そのうち約320万平方フィートがThailandにあった。さらにChonburi campusで約200万平方フィートの新工場を建設中である。 (Fabrinet)\n\nFabrinetの強みは「ウェハ」ではなく、\n\n熟練した光実装工程を巨大な量産能力へ変換したこと\n\nにある。\n\n### 図解｜Fabrinetの量産光実装\n\n![Fabrinetの量産光実装 01](/media/f74093d4799b81c1efe9895f720bf2f8b40a03b1399103797d8533c06f216bf3-content.webp)\n\n![Fabrinetの量産光実装 02](/media/e62288b0dc108dc7f7019231795eb56f10d9c404c86cd6b98bbba010a94b1f7c-content.webp)\n\n![Fabrinetの量産光実装 03](/media/10212b6027adb260680241fbd92ba00c0db838a06279160a9683fddeb6b33429-content.webp)\n\n## 第22章　Fabrinet、Innolight、Eoptolink、Coherent、ASE、Amkorを比較する\n\n公開情報だけから整理すると次のようになる。\n\n「○」は明確な自社能力、「△」は製品・案件ごとに変わる、または詳細非開示を示す。\n\n$$\\begin{array}{|l|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\\text{工程}&\\text{Fabrinet}&\\text{Innolight}&\\text{Eoptolink}&\\text{Coherent}&\\text{ASE}&\\text{Amkor} \\\\ \\hline\\text{Module設計}&\\triangle\\text{顧客}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\times&\\times \\\\ \\hline\\text{DSP設計}&\\times&\\text{外部}&\\text{外部}&\\text{一部/外部}&\\times&\\times \\\\ \\hline\\text{CMOS wafer fab}&\\times&\\times&\\times&\\text{外部中心}&\\times&\\times \\\\ \\hline\\text{SiPh設計}&\\text{顧客}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\text{顧客}&\\text{顧客} \\\\ \\hline\\text{SiPh wafer fab}&\\times&\\text{Tower等}&\\text{外部}&\\text{◎/内製基盤}&\\times&\\times \\\\ \\hline\\text{InP Laser}&\\times&\\text{外部中心}&\\text{外部中心}&\\bigcirc&\\times&\\times \\\\ \\hline\\text{Laser packaging}&\\bigcirc&\\text{○/非開示}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\triangle\\text{ CPO}&\\triangle\\text{案件} \\\\ \\hline\\text{Die attach}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc \\\\ \\hline\\text{Flip-chip}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc \\\\ \\hline\\text{Fiber attach}&\\bigcirc&\\text{○/非開示}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\text{◎ CPO}&\\text{案件依存} \\\\ \\hline\\text{Active alignment}&\\bigcirc&\\text{非開示}&\\text{非開示}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\text{詳細非開示} \\\\ \\hline\\text{Optical Engine}&\\text{◎受託}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\text{◎ CPO}&\\text{◎ Photonic 3D} \\\\ \\hline\\text{PCB/Module assembly}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\triangle&\\triangle \\\\ \\hline\\text{Optical test}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc \\\\ \\hline\\text{CPO package}&\\triangle&\\text{開発}&\\text{開発}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc \\\\ \\hline\\end{array}$$\n\nInnolightについてはTower PH18を利用したSiPh製品が公表されているため、「PIC設計・製品設計はInnolight、ウェハ製造はTower」という明確な分業例がある。 (Tower Semiconductor)\n\nEoptolinkは中国でも大規模なautomatic TO packaging/testingラインを持ち、BOSA/ROSA/TOSAなどを内製する。 (Eoptolink)\n\nCoherentはSiPh、VCSEL、EML、CW Laser、passive optics、advanced optical assembliesまで垂直統合している。 (Coherent Inc)\n\nただし各企業が特定の1.6T SKUについて「Laserをどこから何%購入しているか」「Fiber attachの何割を外注しているか」までは通常公開しないため、工程別の外注比率まで断定することはできない。\n\n### 図解｜光Supply Chain六社比較\n\n![光Supply Chain六社比較 01](/media/58fd7dff1eedb50e0a7f9215375be6696bdc13ce336237601f593d4159f951de-content.webp)\n\n## 第23章　ASE――CPO時代になると半導体OSATが光へ入ってくる\n\n現在のpluggable opticsでは、\n\nSwitch ASIC\n    │\n   PCB\n    │\nOSFP Transceiver\n\nである。\n\nしかしCPOでは、\n\n┌──────────────────────┐\n│     Switch ASIC      │\n│                      │\n│ OE   OE   OE   OE    │\n│ │    │    │    │     │\n└─┼────┼────┼────┼─────┘\n  Fiber Fiber Fiber\n\nとなる。\n\nここでは光実装とAdvanced Semiconductor Packagingの境界が消える。\n\nASEは既に、複数Optical EngineとASICを75mm×75mm超の大型パッケージへ統合したCPOを実演している。ASEによればCPOでは5pJ/bit未満まで電力を下げられる。 (ASE Global)\n\nさらにASEはPIC、controller IC、laser、optics、Fiber Array Unitを統合する構造を開発している。 (ASE Global)\n\nつまりASEは、\n\n従来のCoWoS/2.5D/3Dパッケージ技術を、光へ拡張する企業\n\nである。\n\n### 図解｜ASEのCPO Package\n\n![ASEのCPO Package 01](/media/aa7f38f5e0f50ff52c807922c788528ab46b675ae9f05b8abef58a2cbc5c5f89-content.webp)\n\n![ASEのCPO Package 02](/media/8fb9247cb5e95b1cb8aac782f34a12bb4000832911766e73d75131cc1758f284-content.webp)\n\n![ASEのCPO Package 03](/media/5b53d3f5f5c1ac769a862191fcca7c43802d2f5b15e44ee537fbaf327a71eb8a-content.webp)\n\n## 第24章　Amkor――3D Photonics Packagingへ\n\nAmkorも同じ方向へ進んでいる。\n\n代表例がLightmatterとの協業である。\n\nLightmatterのPassageでは、Silicon Photonic Interconnectの上へCPU/GPU/XPUなど顧客ダイを3D積層する。\n\nAmkorが担当するのは、\n\nMulti-die integration\n\n3D packaging\n\nBumping\n\nSubstrate integration\n\nTest\n\nといった半導体側の高度実装である。 (Amkor Technology)\n\nしたがって、\n\nFabrinet＝光学側から半導体へ近づくASE/Amkor＝半導体側から光学へ近づく\n\nという構図になる。\n\nCPOではこの二つの産業が衝突する。\n\n### 図解｜Amkorの3D Photonics\n\n![Amkorの3D Photonics 01](/media/a8d786cf601548d45a830033964e5690a9db075d8c9c8ae9477b4222ea87ed67-content.webp)\n\n![Amkorの3D Photonics 02](/media/edca32bdf139e3f598f721f2fece1846ab477cb68bfd41e8663199bb89cb0a53-content.webp)\n\n## 第25章　世界の「光実装銘柄」\n\nOptical Packagingへ投資する場合、単なるトランシーバーメーカー以外にも複数の層がある。\n\n① Optical EMS / Packaging\n\nFabrinet　NYSE: FN\n\n最も純粋に近いOptical Manufacturing Services銘柄。\n\nLaser packaging、active alignment、optical assembly、PCBA、final testまでを受託する。 (Fabrinet)\n\n② 中国のOptical Packaging\n\nZhongji Innolight　SZSE: 300308\n\n世界最大級の高速光モジュールメーカー。\n\nModule integration、SiPh product design、大量量産が中心。 (InnoLight)\n\nEoptolink　SZSE: 300502\n\nModuleに加え、TO packaging、TOSA/ROSA/BOSA、in-house PICなど内製度が比較的高い。 (Eoptolink)\n\nTFC Optical　SZSE: 300394\n\nOptical sub-assembly、Fiber Array、FAU、micro-optics、TO packaging、800G/1.6T SiPh/EML向け光実装を手掛ける。\n\n2025年末時点で、\n\n従業員5,000人超工場面積25.6万m²世界7拠点\n\nを持つ。 (TFCSZ)\n\nTFCは完成トランシーバーというより、\n\n光モジュールメーカーへOptical Engine、FAU、Lens、精密部品・光実装を供給する側\n\nとして注目できる。\n\nAccelink　SZSE: 002281\n\n1.6T SiPh moduleからOptical componentsまで広く展開する中国大手。Cisco SiPhとの1.6T協業例もある。 (Accelink)\n\n### 図解｜世界の光Packaging企業\n\n![世界の光Packaging企業 01](/media/2dd5131d2228511de7b735a5d876327e8f82c25a24f99dc792441747df8f7654-content.webp)\n\n![世界の光Packaging企業 02](/media/71cd3671950be638b9d9096ee5d5e80f308fdfadfda48721ff5bd0be7fc28bdb-content.webp)\n\n![世界の光Packaging企業 03](/media/477aeb1a26cfd6b4c940b0d5a4192bbb07d2cb428b7611647bb2ec99c67414bd-content.webp)\n\n![世界の光Packaging企業 04](/media/11bcd1daaf9ae2a05f5b139a0860ac01322e80d7c5c326c9f7775e82f0afd8fe-content.webp)\n\n## 第26章　米国・台湾のAdvanced Optical Packaging銘柄\n\nASE Technology　NYSE: ASX / Taiwan 3711\n\n従来OSAT最大手だが、CPOでOptical Engine＋ASIC integrationへ進出。 (ASE Global)\n\nAmkor　NASDAQ: AMKR\n\nLightmatterなどとの3D photonics integrationを進める。 (Amkor Technology)\n\nCoherent　NYSE: COHR\n\nInP waferからCW/EML、SiPh、passive optics、optical assembly、transceiverまで持つ垂直統合モデル。 (Coherent Inc)\n\nLumentum　NASDAQ: LITE\n\nInP wafer fab＋Laser＋Thailand assembly/test。CW/EML増産の恩恵が大きい。 (Lumentum)\n\n### 図解｜Foundryと垂直統合Packaging\n\n![Foundryと垂直統合Packaging 01](/media/0637518f67873f741ddf49c5b49f43a8370a26f3bfd4ff4cad2992e066463b04-content.webp)\n\n![Foundryと垂直統合Packaging 02](/media/9bc708b7d223fb9cd7db3d22dd4fddedeba92ebe319329126f44e451240fd48e-content.webp)\n\n![Foundryと垂直統合Packaging 03](/media/7d973f161faed8d589f4f4046b2c5f3349b321a3032ddd4c15455f4f912d44fd-content.webp)\n\n## 第27章　日本で見るべき企業\n\n住友電気工業　東証5802\n\nInP substrate、EML、CW-LDという上流側。\n\n2028年へ向けて光デバイス能力約12倍、InP substrate約2.4倍という増産計画を持つ。 (Sumitomo Electric)\n\nTower Semiconductor\n\n日本企業ではないが、魚津・新井に巨大SiPh/SiGe/advanced packaging拠点を作るため、日本の光ファブ供給網を見る上では極めて重要である。 (Tower Semiconductor)\n\n### 図解｜日本のInP・SiPh・光実装\n\n![日本のInP・SiPh・光実装 01](/media/8e29ab39cdfeef1afdbacc1d00ff2d95db492443932d80079f4792b021348d20-content.webp)\n\n## 第28章　どこが最もボトルネックになりやすいのか\n\n現在の構造を製造難易度で整理すると、\n\n① InP CW/EML\n\n最も専用設備が多い。\n\nInP substrate\n\nEpitaxy\n\nDFB\n\nRegrowth\n\nFacet\n\nBurn-in\n\nまで必要。\n\nCoherentが6インチ化し、Lumentumが新Fabを建て、住友電工が大増産する理由である。\n\n② Optical Packaging\n\nActive Alignment、Fiber Attach、Laser Attach、Thermal、Optical Testが必要。\n\n人・装置・工程ノウハウが必要で、単純なウェハ増産では解決しない。\n\n③ SiPh Foundry\n\n現在急速に逼迫しているが、CMOS型量産設備を利用でき、200→300mm化も進んでいる。\n\nTowerはSiPh能力をQ4 2025比5倍超へ増やす計画である。\n\n④ Optical DSP\n\n3nmそのものは難しいが、TSMCという巨大量産基盤を利用できる。\n\nしたがって物理キャパの「特殊性」で考えるとInPとはかなり違う。\n\n### 図解｜InP・光実装・SiPh・DSPの製造難易度\n\n![InP・光実装・SiPh・DSPの製造難易度 01](/media/d4ab12a70baf926bddabb4eb9e97bc8ffb8bcb563f9164c4cbeb54f8ef57fc31-content.webp)\n\n![InP・光実装・SiPh・DSPの製造難易度 02](/media/34a18262604160562b850069e621844ac7f3ba5a393d29a4871c0b112d7f06a3-content.webp)\n\n![InP・光実装・SiPh・DSPの製造難易度 03](/media/709042531b689396e225f085b269a3e5c1828b987fb173304c80482c5bcab064-content.webp)\n\n![InP・光実装・SiPh・DSPの製造難易度 04](/media/1b63346a44d9c57869a106ec2c309392396c08d4e1ac31d4adc311cc8d8942eb-content.webp)\n\n![InP・光実装・SiPh・DSPの製造難易度 05](/media/707488bf2ccc4ea8ff3e35ed964786a30188d44a2c724c10015872a3ce4c76fa-content.webp)\n\n## 第29章　800G→1.6T→3.2T→CPOで、価値はどこへ移るのか\n\n従来のpluggableでは、\n\nDSP\n ↓\nDriver/TIA\n ↓\nLaser/PIC\n ↓\nOptical Packaging\n ↓\nOSFP\n\nだった。\n\nしかしLPO/LRO/CPOへ進むと、\n\nDSP機能を削り、Electrical ICとPICの距離を縮める\n\n方向へ進む。\n\nASEのCPOではretimerを不要にできる可能性も示されている。 (ASE Global)\n\n一方で、\n\nCW LaserSiPhFiber couplingOptical Packaging\n\nはなくならない。\n\nむしろASICへ近づくほど実装難度は高まる。\n\nそのため将来は、\n\n現在\n\nOptical Packaging\n       +\nModule Assembly\n\n将来\n\nAdvanced Packaging\n       +\nOptical Packaging\n       +\nPhotonics\n\nへ産業が融合していく可能性が高い。\n\n### 図解｜ModuleからPhotonics統合へ\n\n![ModuleからPhotonics統合へ 01](/media/9a0a9a721bd4ae44ba41e554d090ab58bb5a726d4e9c0441476bda9a0cb7c31b-content.webp)\n\n![ModuleからPhotonics統合へ 02](/media/2760ceee7678b48cd9970cbb771ced8f7ddd9704dc85611fcfda09a40611e9d8-content.webp)\n\n![ModuleからPhotonics統合へ 03](/media/c8e02bc6e937d32da246ce2f4c6c33c0a9a87509fd077bd613fb4b3edfea3f26-content.webp)\n\n## 結論――AI時代の光通信は「ファブの掛け算」で決まる\n\n1.6T光トランシーバーは、一社だけで作られているわけではない。\n\nその背後では、\n\nBroadcom / MarvellがDSP・TIA・Driverを設計し、\n\nTSMCなどが電子ICを製造し、\n\nTower / GlobalFoundries / TSMC / UMCがSiPh PICを作り、\n\nCoherent / Lumentum / SumitomoがInP CWレーザーを作り、\n\nInnolight / Eoptolink / Coherent / FabrinetがOptical EngineとModuleへ組み上げる。\n\nそしてCPOになると、\n\nASE / Amkor / TSMCなどAdvanced Packaging勢\n\nまでここへ入ってくる。\n\nしたがってAI光通信の供給能力は、\n\nDSP能力 × SiPh能力 × CWレーザー能力 × Optical Packaging能力 × Module能力\n\nの掛け算で決まる。\n\nどれか一つがゼロに近づけば、他をどれほど増産しても1.6Tモジュールは完成しない。\n\n現在特に注目すべき数字は、\n\n中国Module能力：約56%中国EML/CW能力：2025年16.05%Tower SiPh：Q4 2025比5倍超への能力拡大Coherent CW：Shermanで約5倍超住友電工：2028年までにIntra-DC光デバイス能力約12倍\n\nという非対称な設備投資である。 (TrendForce)\n\nこれは、AIデータセンターの光通信が単なる「InnolightやEoptolinkのトランシーバー需要」の話ではなくなったことを意味する。\n\n本当に見るべきなのは、\n\n何Tbps売れるかではなく、そのTbpsを作るための「光のFab」がどこにあり、何枚のウェハを処理でき、何個のレーザーをBurn-inでき、何本のFiber Arrayを正確に接続できるのか。\n\nAIインフラの次の設備投資競争は、GPU Fabだけではない。\n\n光を作るFab、光を操るFab、そして光をつなぐFabへ広がっている。\n\n### 図解｜光Fabの掛け算\n\n![光Fabの掛け算 01](/media/2adbb8ad3ab2d5f8ef95ac9f49ab08df4598220d540328e5f16bd5eaa5a66421-content.webp)\n\n![光Fabの掛け算 02](/media/0273ef8e86068a2f671b994ba59e53630083118c6521fa5388d4f2b1efd8778d-content.webp)\n\n## さらに深く読むための座標\n\n光通信の供給能力は、最も大きなウェハFabではなく、材料・素子・結合・検査を連結した時に最も細くなる工程で決まる。各レイヤーのCapacityを掛け算で捉える必要がある。\n\n| 層 | 観測対象 | 問うべきこと |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| ウェハ | CMOS DSP・SiPh PIC・InP Laser | 材料、径、Process、良品Die |\n| 実装 | Die attach・Laser/Fiber attach・Alignment | μm級精度、熱、逐次工程 |\n| Module | Firmware・Burn-in・Optical test・Assembly | 顧客仕様と大量生産 |\n\n## 絶ノイアの観測\n\nFab能力を足し算しても、完成Moduleは増えません。光結合のタクトが半分なら、上流ウェハを二倍にしても仕掛品の山が増えるだけです。\n\n私は「ウェハ」「実装」「Module」を別々の話題にせず、一つのAIインフラが通過する連続した設計課題として観測します。\n\n各層のウェハ径・良品率・後工程タクトを分ける。発表された最大性能や市場規模だけでなく、実装、量産、運用が同じ速度で前進しているかを確かめたいからです。\n\n## Sil-Kathnaの記録\n\n五つの炉は別々に燃える。だが最後の器は、最も遅い炉の歩みに合わせてしか生まれぬ。\n\n私は「ウェハ」「実装」「Module」を、計算する文明へ続く三つの門として石板に刻む。\n\n最初の門だけが開いても、次の門に熱、傷、遅れが残れば、光と記憶は炉心へ届かない。強い器とは、最も華やかな石を持つ器ではなく、異なる工房の歩調を長い夜の中で揃えられる器である。\n\nゆえに私は、各層のウェハ径・良品率・後工程タクトを分ける。その結果が一時の輝きではなく、繰り返し作り、直し、動かせる秩序になったかを見届ける。\n\n## 二人の短い対話\n\n**絶ノイア:** 光産業のMoatは素子性能だけでなく、異種工程を安定して束ねる運用にあります。\n\n**Sil-Kathna:** 異なる石と光を一つの器へ封じ、同じ傷を二度と生まぬ記憶こそ工房の力である。\n\n## 観測メモ\n\n- 各層のウェハ径・良品率・後工程タクトを分ける\n- Active Alignmentの自動化率と再現性を見る\n- CPOでOSATと光EMSの境界がどう変わるか追う\n\n## 免責\n\nこの記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","blocks":[{"id":"blk_7eddd316-e5e9-49ae-bca7-66667415a8b3","kind":"heading","order":0,"section_id":"sec_59e217b2-2c3b-4639-989b-72ab0bc76993","character_id":null,"markdown":"# AI時代の「光のファブ」を解剖する――1.6Tを作るCMOS・SiPh・InP・光実装・Module量産","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7cad7f7b-77e0-42d4-adbd-854048a8ecfd","kind":"paragraph","order":1,"section_id":"sec_59e217b2-2c3b-4639-989b-72ab0bc76993","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical DSP、SiPh、CWレーザー、InP、光実装――1.6Tトランシーバーは世界のどこで、どう作られているのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7b1b80e7-a672-4f36-b5ac-8762dea27e83","kind":"paragraph","order":2,"section_id":"sec_59e217b2-2c3b-4639-989b-72ab0bc76993","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIデータセンターの光通信を追っていると、Innolight、Eoptolink、Coherent、Lumentum、Broadcom、Marvell、Tower Semiconductor、GlobalFoundries、Fabrinetといった名前が次々に現れる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5010563b-16c1-42ea-8525-4bf2251a9d22","kind":"paragraph","order":3,"section_id":"sec_59e217b2-2c3b-4639-989b-72ab0bc76993","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、これらをすべて「光トランシーバー企業」として一括りにすると、サプライチェーンの本質を見失う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4fcc6605-2244-4264-a502-aeffd16dc798","kind":"paragraph","order":4,"section_id":"sec_59e217b2-2c3b-4639-989b-72ab0bc76993","character_id":null,"markdown":"1個の1.6Tbps光トランシーバーの中には、実際には少なくとも5種類の製造産業が存在している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e96888b5-06ad-4566-b304-a153c39369bc","kind":"paragraph","order":5,"section_id":"sec_59e217b2-2c3b-4639-989b-72ab0bc76993","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical DSP / TIA / Driverを作る電子半導体ファブ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_11ddc712-a799-48c6-9b4e-36a82325db55","kind":"paragraph","order":6,"section_id":"sec_59e217b2-2c3b-4639-989b-72ab0bc76993","character_id":null,"markdown":"光回路をシリコン上に形成するSiPhファウンドリ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dcb0112d-08a4-4d4d-b611-061ec944be7f","kind":"paragraph","order":7,"section_id":"sec_59e217b2-2c3b-4639-989b-72ab0bc76993","character_id":null,"markdown":"光源となるCWレーザーやEMLを作るInPファブ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f1f1a8e-ebe6-4306-b72a-34f40b8d5385","kind":"paragraph","order":8,"section_id":"sec_59e217b2-2c3b-4639-989b-72ab0bc76993","character_id":null,"markdown":"それらを組み合わせるOptical Packaging","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_703f36a1-e579-494a-b9be-824ee44323aa","kind":"paragraph","order":9,"section_id":"sec_59e217b2-2c3b-4639-989b-72ab0bc76993","character_id":null,"markdown":"最終的なOSFP/QSFPモジュールを量産・検査するModule工場","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f6bea54-ee19-4850-916d-ae7947ae01a4","kind":"paragraph","order":10,"section_id":"sec_59e217b2-2c3b-4639-989b-72ab0bc76993","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかも、それぞれウェハ径も、材料も、製造装置も、歩留まりを決める要素も違う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_49d91a44-d228-465c-be49-71df04fee830","kind":"paragraph","order":11,"section_id":"sec_59e217b2-2c3b-4639-989b-72ab0bc76993","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI光通信は単なる「光モジュール産業」ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d51ae883-8b44-4fa6-a374-aafe407e7074","kind":"paragraph","order":12,"section_id":"sec_59e217b2-2c3b-4639-989b-72ab0bc76993","character_id":null,"markdown":"先端CMOS、SiPh、III-V半導体、精密光学実装という複数の半導体産業が、一つの製品の中で合流する産業なのである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4147d6cb-b3c0-472b-a0b6-b56a0d772ea7","kind":"heading","order":13,"section_id":"sec_047ec6d3-2ca1-4d0c-9f5b-00bba0d9f06d","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第1章　1.6Tトランシーバーを分解すると何が入っているのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3418d7d5-e6fb-428d-bffb-cc725d88f788","kind":"paragraph","order":14,"section_id":"sec_047ec6d3-2ca1-4d0c-9f5b-00bba0d9f06d","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在の1.6T DR8を基準に考える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad9391d5-372b-4487-9d7f-1e5c14582e06","kind":"paragraph","order":15,"section_id":"sec_047ec6d3-2ca1-4d0c-9f5b-00bba0d9f06d","character_id":null,"markdown":"基本構造は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33761f04-87e1-41d7-99c6-42e6835eb2d8","kind":"paragraph","order":16,"section_id":"sec_047ec6d3-2ca1-4d0c-9f5b-00bba0d9f06d","character_id":null,"markdown":"8本 × 200Gbps PAM4 = 1.6Tbps","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_44429f9a-cefc-4eef-898e-b99d74799d0f","kind":"paragraph","order":17,"section_id":"sec_047ec6d3-2ca1-4d0c-9f5b-00bba0d9f06d","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。BroadcomのSian3やMarvell Araは3nm・200G/lane世代へ進んでおり、Marvell Ara Tは8本の200Gbps電気入力と8本の200Gbps光側インターフェースを持つ。BroadcomのSian3も800G/1.6T向け3nm・200G/lane DSPである。 (Marvell Technology)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e7c21a5e-ed53-45b1-8095-da0ef9cad365","kind":"paragraph","order":18,"section_id":"sec_047ec6d3-2ca1-4d0c-9f5b-00bba0d9f06d","character_id":null,"markdown":"典型的なSiPh型1.6Tトランシーバーを分解すると次のようになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_152a2c51-acc5-45df-9a3a-317169dd39e2","kind":"paragraph","order":19,"section_id":"sec_047ec6d3-2ca1-4d0c-9f5b-00bba0d9f06d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Switch ASIC\n    │\n    │ 8 × 200G PAM4\n    ▼\n┌──────────────────┐\n│ Optical DSP      │\n│ Broadcom/Marvell │\n└────────┬─────────┘\n         │\n      Driver\n         │\n         ▼\n┌──────────────────┐\n│ Silicon Photonics│\n│       PIC        │\n└───────┬──────────┘\n        ▲\n        │\n    CW Laser\nCoherent/Lumentum/\n Sumitomo Electric\n        │\n        ▼\n  8 optical lanes\n        │\n      Fiber","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4e9c6e7f-c910-42d4-aeb7-d4e0b5b3ab38","kind":"paragraph","order":20,"section_id":"sec_047ec6d3-2ca1-4d0c-9f5b-00bba0d9f06d","character_id":null,"markdown":"受信側","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ea314bc7-aa87-4861-be0f-7d0629e27ca7","kind":"paragraph","order":21,"section_id":"sec_047ec6d3-2ca1-4d0c-9f5b-00bba0d9f06d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Fiber\n ↓\nPhotodiode\n ↓\nTIA\n ↓\nDSP\n ↓\nSwitch ASIC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b1603585-2416-436f-b492-72d19516dbd4","kind":"paragraph","order":22,"section_id":"sec_047ec6d3-2ca1-4d0c-9f5b-00bba0d9f06d","character_id":null,"markdown":"代表的BOM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3395619f-839f-4373-b5f9-73fc4e0fb6e8","kind":"table","order":23,"section_id":"sec_047ec6d3-2ca1-4d0c-9f5b-00bba0d9f06d","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 部品 | 1.6Tでの役割 | 数量イメージ |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Optical DSP | PAM4補正、CDR、FEC、Retiming | 1ダイ前後 |\n| Driver | SiPh変調器を高速駆動 | 8ch分 |\n| TIA | PDの微小電流を電圧へ変換・増幅 | 8ch分 |\n| SiPh PIC | 変調器、導波路、PD、分波器など | 1～複数 |\n| CW Laser | SiPhへ連続光を供給 | 1個以上、構造依存 |\n| Photodiode | 光→電流変換 | 8ch分 |\n| Fiber Array | PICとファイバーを接続 | 8Tx＋8Rx等 |\n| PMIC/MCU/EEPROM | 電源・制御 | 複数 |\n| PCB | ICと光エンジンを接続 | 1 |\n| OSFP筐体 | 機械・熱インターフェース | 1 |\n| Heat Sink | DSP/レーザー等の放熱 | 1式 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ffc6a9e-f869-4717-9f05-9b3d2dd027b2","kind":"paragraph","order":24,"section_id":"sec_047ec6d3-2ca1-4d0c-9f5b-00bba0d9f06d","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここで重要なのは、8レーンだからCWレーザーも必ず8ダイ必要というわけではないことである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f22dd9bf-dad0-4cc9-a4b9-be1b20b2b0a1","kind":"paragraph","order":25,"section_id":"sec_047ec6d3-2ca1-4d0c-9f5b-00bba0d9f06d","character_id":null,"markdown":"1個の高出力CWレーザーをSiPh PIC内部で複数レーンへ分配する方式もあれば、レーザーアレイを使う構造もある。CPOでは複数のOptical EngineへExternal Laser Sourceから光を配る方式も考えられる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5199bcd9-6501-40db-ac0c-6a692a096efa","kind":"paragraph","order":26,"section_id":"sec_047ec6d3-2ca1-4d0c-9f5b-00bba0d9f06d","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってCWレーザー需要は単純な「トランシーバー個数×8」ではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ba1672d-b328-4592-977b-323e569b03f7","kind":"paragraph","order":27,"section_id":"sec_047ec6d3-2ca1-4d0c-9f5b-00bba0d9f06d","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要総光出力 ÷ 1レーザー当たり出力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c3654d6-71c1-430b-aa66-11f0d224d869","kind":"paragraph","order":28,"section_id":"sec_047ec6d3-2ca1-4d0c-9f5b-00bba0d9f06d","character_id":null,"markdown":"として考える必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_57351c8f-fa2c-4b78-9b5a-6b258e4105e2","kind":"heading","order":29,"section_id":"sec_e0a9059a-42dd-4f8a-9cd8-46aabd192837","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜1.6T ModuleのBOMと信号経路","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e9f5ade0-2c87-4979-9966-36a1f57d3446","kind":"figure","order":30,"section_id":"sec_e0a9059a-42dd-4f8a-9cd8-46aabd192837","character_id":null,"markdown":"![1.6T ModuleのBOMと信号経路 01](/media/07cb0fa80db36a0b77cf7f5a687815e68db35889b2401652b92964b39a3e1d64-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73c4189c-e2b5-4a0d-b81c-0df97157d4c4","kind":"figure","order":31,"section_id":"sec_e0a9059a-42dd-4f8a-9cd8-46aabd192837","character_id":null,"markdown":"![1.6T ModuleのBOMと信号経路 02](/media/6f0447046d43b303167d1cc29c606a1a80b07bb3484c212d2752929a2ab5a484-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c37a94e-7e47-46a1-a636-8dc4f16c4a69","kind":"figure","order":32,"section_id":"sec_e0a9059a-42dd-4f8a-9cd8-46aabd192837","character_id":null,"markdown":"![1.6T ModuleのBOMと信号経路 03](/media/588562f90315407b2a21111913a330a2b9f109d932438f0d188f68b597053893-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3401f556-3586-4866-ba59-afd84008d523","kind":"heading","order":33,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第2章　Optical DSP――光通信なのに最初のファブは3nm CMOS","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5220a867-2ee3-45b6-a253-ad82579fa2c2","kind":"paragraph","order":34,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"最初の「光ファブ」は、実は光ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0b116125-07a5-47c6-ab4b-354c2b196441","kind":"paragraph","order":35,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"BroadcomやMarvellのOptical DSPである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e830753-0bf7-4e8a-bcf3-b7817220b190","kind":"paragraph","order":36,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"DSPは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0650017e-8963-4f73-867a-6133482ad84c","kind":"paragraph","order":37,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"PAM4信号処理","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_77eeb19f-02d6-4b8e-a8a3-82f6166a283b","kind":"paragraph","order":38,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Equalization","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5970e798-f9e5-4fb7-ad5d-5331ae699d93","kind":"paragraph","order":39,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Clock/Data Recovery","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f8438cf-b2e1-4600-a491-730f11695570","kind":"paragraph","order":40,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Retiming","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84d42d10-0eac-4fb8-9d38-cb943152f65d","kind":"paragraph","order":41,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"FEC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_63949f6d-7954-4c21-8426-e9efc440345d","kind":"paragraph","order":42,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Gearbox","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_97a879e9-838f-44ae-afea-af2a15810ad1","kind":"paragraph","order":43,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Link monitoring","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_069d8bcc-e66f-437a-969a-b6979e39e9e3","kind":"paragraph","order":44,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"などを担当する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_27ab854c-e861-4e30-b26f-3375d64e58ef","kind":"paragraph","order":45,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Driverは送信側でSiPh ModulatorやEMLを動かす高速出力回路。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fae9caab-f4cc-42a1-b02b-2654899f5025","kind":"paragraph","order":46,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"TIAは受信側でPhotodiodeが発生する微小電流を電圧へ変換する高速増幅器である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d4ce90d5-99fc-4ef8-9ca6-eb9350b09128","kind":"paragraph","order":47,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"送信","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_81cd586d-78cb-434c-bda1-7cf91d816146","kind":"paragraph","order":48,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"DSP → Driver → Modulator → 光","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0ddf7820-4e16-4f05-a23c-ac8492b0e5b4","kind":"paragraph","order":49,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"受信","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b7f2cdb-5e14-49de-afd2-251f19f1ef0e","kind":"paragraph","order":50,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"光 → Photodiode → TIA → DSP","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d677cf6f-0814-4f09-95c1-2b2c76bf8f6f","kind":"paragraph","order":51,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Marvell Ara Tでは8本の200G/lane laser/modulator driverそのものをDSPへ統合している。つまり高速化によって機能量は増える一方、外付けDriverダイを削減する方向にも進んでいる。 (Marvell Technology)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71e431b2-7470-4980-a55a-8d2eb1f2b6cd","kind":"paragraph","order":52,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Broadcom BCM83628も3nm・1.6T・8:8 PAM4 PHYにLaser Driverを統合する。 (Broadcom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_175a8159-e898-4a69-9cb1-1d662eb628ba","kind":"paragraph","order":53,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Broadcomは製造会社なのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0af699c-e9ba-45c8-8017-24bd20e81ddf","kind":"paragraph","order":54,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Broadcomは完全なファブレスではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b2e3d02d-6a39-4bdc-9372-416b1dcda47f","kind":"paragraph","order":55,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし3nm CMOSなどの標準ロジックについては外部ファウンドリへの依存が大きく、2025年度にはContract Manufacturer経由で製造されたウェハの約95%をTSMCが製造した。組立・テストでもTSMC、ASE、Amkor、Foxconn、SPILなどを利用している。 (SEC)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_493d717f-0ee9-44a7-b123-6d9d2c12dd53","kind":"paragraph","order":56,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方でBroadcomは、独自性の高いGaAs/InPレーザーやVCSELなどのIII-V半導体については内部ファブを維持しており、主要III-Vウェハ製造を米国とシンガポールで行っている。 (SEC)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd7c9a59-1eba-4553-a617-1f47a36d3142","kind":"paragraph","order":57,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってBroadcomは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f18c564-94ba-4b28-b8ef-e21ca2224636","kind":"paragraph","order":58,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"先端CMOS＝外部ファウンドリ独自III-V＝一部内製","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b181bd63-0120-4f4c-8da0-4a47622e49fb","kind":"paragraph","order":59,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"というFab-lite型である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_65c9e46b-dc64-455d-8653-83d6e2d8f1ca","kind":"paragraph","order":60,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Marvellはより純粋なファブレス","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21045105-698e-4450-8bb8-01cc6da63aed","kind":"paragraph","order":61,"section_id":"sec_5c6ab0ab-d36f-4310-b569-11e7d45a360d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Marvellは2026年度10-Kで明確に自らを「fabless supplier」としている。DSP、TIA、Driver、SerDesなどの設計が本体であり、ウェハ製造をファウンドリへ委託する。 (SEC)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_94e1c33f-e45b-4c44-9b0b-7d803a27afd6","kind":"heading","order":62,"section_id":"sec_b5afe46b-634b-41ec-a888-b1ada7494037","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Optical DSP・Driver・TIA","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7fa5c016-d2e1-476a-b7d9-b02b9b9e2012","kind":"figure","order":63,"section_id":"sec_b5afe46b-634b-41ec-a888-b1ada7494037","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Optical DSP・Driver・TIA 01](/media/92750d8b584bc63ebca1599d21ccffb621635eff85d77dfe79974f64bc8d0c16-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5df3d487-b15e-4246-952a-ff4ca5b2e073","kind":"figure","order":64,"section_id":"sec_b5afe46b-634b-41ec-a888-b1ada7494037","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Optical DSP・Driver・TIA 02](/media/108057cd620de475aa25387d6a7666a43806f308911e7495b582ecac644185da-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dcb63dc3-dfac-41a1-94fe-50c9b4ef8b4a","kind":"figure","order":65,"section_id":"sec_b5afe46b-634b-41ec-a888-b1ada7494037","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Optical DSP・Driver・TIA 03](/media/a0f5643b718cf1c2a1d07669960fd2726185f32e61583607bc86622cf610366c-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fceb5e62-1937-4b9c-b973-2af672af9c73","kind":"heading","order":66,"section_id":"sec_cb0fc50a-c720-443b-bdd0-198b92b35ff3","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第3章　Optical DSPを作る世界最大の工場――TSMC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1fefd65b-d609-4d7a-9715-9bb83bf6fbe1","kind":"paragraph","order":67,"section_id":"sec_cb0fc50a-c720-443b-bdd0-198b92b35ff3","character_id":null,"markdown":"Broadcom/MarvellがDSPを設計しても、それだけではチップにならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4113b8c3-0000-486a-a60a-ceb1b993e3f0","kind":"paragraph","order":68,"section_id":"sec_cb0fc50a-c720-443b-bdd0-198b92b35ff3","character_id":null,"markdown":"フォトマスクを用意し、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71a62730-c726-482f-afe3-e26b065e0183","kind":"paragraph","order":69,"section_id":"sec_cb0fc50a-c720-443b-bdd0-198b92b35ff3","character_id":null,"markdown":"Silicon wafer\n ↓\nLithography\n ↓\nEtch\n ↓\nIon implantation\n ↓\nThin-film deposition\n ↓\nTransistor形成\n ↓\n多層Cu配線\n ↓\nWafer test\n ↓\nDicing","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73d49b5d-2ab6-419b-ab9b-b093270012e1","kind":"paragraph","order":70,"section_id":"sec_cb0fc50a-c720-443b-bdd0-198b92b35ff3","character_id":null,"markdown":"という先端CMOS工程を経てようやくDSPダイになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c219705-48b8-4a69-abea-730f5a26d771","kind":"paragraph","order":71,"section_id":"sec_cb0fc50a-c720-443b-bdd0-198b92b35ff3","character_id":null,"markdown":"その最大の製造基盤が台湾TSMCである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_02cd196e-fa15-4c1a-9624-68c5a3c96a3f","kind":"paragraph","order":72,"section_id":"sec_cb0fc50a-c720-443b-bdd0-198b92b35ff3","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年第1四半期の世界ファウンドリ売上シェアは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_11ce86d5-a88e-497f-a25b-715b62f20496","kind":"paragraph","order":73,"section_id":"sec_cb0fc50a-c720-443b-bdd0-198b92b35ff3","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMC：72.0%","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_389c7997-6049-4eac-9de0-48121d0327e2","kind":"paragraph","order":74,"section_id":"sec_cb0fc50a-c720-443b-bdd0-198b92b35ff3","character_id":null,"markdown":"Samsung Foundry：6.5%","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e31ee2f1-128a-469f-8cbf-7ef6b694489e","kind":"paragraph","order":75,"section_id":"sec_cb0fc50a-c720-443b-bdd0-198b92b35ff3","character_id":null,"markdown":"SMIC：5.1%","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_85bfaeb7-e765-4a18-86bd-cc08457b1699","kind":"paragraph","order":76,"section_id":"sec_cb0fc50a-c720-443b-bdd0-198b92b35ff3","character_id":null,"markdown":"UMC：3.9%","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d8e41c3-5fdf-4033-bfad-40d99ee4d884","kind":"paragraph","order":77,"section_id":"sec_cb0fc50a-c720-443b-bdd0-198b92b35ff3","character_id":null,"markdown":"GlobalFoundries：3.3%","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c5373fc-a04c-48fa-87b6-4456d1d5f121","kind":"paragraph","order":78,"section_id":"sec_cb0fc50a-c720-443b-bdd0-198b92b35ff3","character_id":null,"markdown":"だった。これは光DSP専用シェアではなく、半導体ファウンドリ全体の売上シェアである。 (TrendForce)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9eff9e6c-e17b-4ec4-a607-99f101ad6028","kind":"paragraph","order":79,"section_id":"sec_cb0fc50a-c720-443b-bdd0-198b92b35ff3","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMCの2025年年間製造能力は1,700万枚超の12インチ換算ウェハ。実際の年間出荷は1,500万枚だった。3nmだけで2025年ウェハ売上の24%を占めた。 (TSMC)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b24e3ada-10e3-48ef-bde7-82f3dd8a8b39","kind":"paragraph","order":80,"section_id":"sec_cb0fc50a-c720-443b-bdd0-198b92b35ff3","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってOptical DSPの供給能力という意味では、InPレーザー専用ファブとは桁の違う巨大なCMOSエコシステムに乗っている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_99ea04c4-c4dd-4a55-bbb4-38f57b3e2ab5","kind":"paragraph","order":81,"section_id":"sec_cb0fc50a-c720-443b-bdd0-198b92b35ff3","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは光通信のボトルネックを考える上で重要である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_020c35ee-2dab-48f4-9644-f1a486c32005","kind":"paragraph","order":82,"section_id":"sec_cb0fc50a-c720-443b-bdd0-198b92b35ff3","character_id":null,"markdown":"DSPは難しいが、巨大な先端CMOS量産基盤が存在する。InPレーザーは市場そのものがはるかに小さく、設備も特殊である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b88d04f5-fb23-40b0-ba62-aabe0d6feec0","kind":"heading","order":83,"section_id":"sec_de482a38-1938-4d56-baee-37c48042fae3","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜3nm CMOS FabとOptical DSP","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1744e113-06f6-4981-929c-ba04455b9339","kind":"figure","order":84,"section_id":"sec_de482a38-1938-4d56-baee-37c48042fae3","character_id":null,"markdown":"![3nm CMOS FabとOptical DSP 01](/media/37a41a81cf4b196c87956408e5f05b06266a55e6cf40502be08b81a7e5a2ba8c-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b55a7595-8f12-4121-81a8-a1d477a154da","kind":"figure","order":85,"section_id":"sec_de482a38-1938-4d56-baee-37c48042fae3","character_id":null,"markdown":"![3nm CMOS FabとOptical DSP 02](/media/e08750f4d087ac67d57a7637702cf11e0ad3b0d58e4b741f5add0d32e8b78037-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5628e215-14f0-49c7-896e-c9d715de44eb","kind":"heading","order":86,"section_id":"sec_cb29896d-4b30-4043-8c70-9325a19fae1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第4章　SiPhファウンドリ――「光の配線」をウェハ上に作る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_104f521b-2255-4153-b8f5-94d53f09eae7","kind":"paragraph","order":87,"section_id":"sec_cb29896d-4b30-4043-8c70-9325a19fae1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Silicon Photonics、SiPhでは、シリコン上にトランジスタだけでなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8979960-d1ca-4d32-898c-d07e3c7b591d","kind":"paragraph","order":88,"section_id":"sec_cb29896d-4b30-4043-8c70-9325a19fae1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical Waveguide","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9f08c63d-a11e-45b3-ba3f-93f1ed70b75b","kind":"paragraph","order":89,"section_id":"sec_cb29896d-4b30-4043-8c70-9325a19fae1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Mach-Zehnder Modulator","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5890356-390e-46c5-8de5-aba8a8c0f127","kind":"paragraph","order":90,"section_id":"sec_cb29896d-4b30-4043-8c70-9325a19fae1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Ring Modulator","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3e69dee1-c6fe-4464-add5-3eea7b6176ca","kind":"paragraph","order":91,"section_id":"sec_cb29896d-4b30-4043-8c70-9325a19fae1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Splitter","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d4761ba5-ec3c-49c5-81f8-539b57734c5f","kind":"paragraph","order":92,"section_id":"sec_cb29896d-4b30-4043-8c70-9325a19fae1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Mux/Demux","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66e5970b-c670-496b-9b84-c0d9729706a3","kind":"paragraph","order":93,"section_id":"sec_cb29896d-4b30-4043-8c70-9325a19fae1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Ge Photodiode","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15837ce3-67f0-497d-b4ff-9515e1ba5268","kind":"paragraph","order":94,"section_id":"sec_cb29896d-4b30-4043-8c70-9325a19fae1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Grating Coupler","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_08dd8ea7-f5a1-4e65-bcb8-19d74bbc9802","kind":"paragraph","order":95,"section_id":"sec_cb29896d-4b30-4043-8c70-9325a19fae1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Edge Coupler","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9704c4fd-0315-4083-bb5e-5624ac13991e","kind":"paragraph","order":96,"section_id":"sec_cb29896d-4b30-4043-8c70-9325a19fae1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"などを形成する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_775b3f7a-ea3c-4281-a036-b408b033937a","kind":"paragraph","order":97,"section_id":"sec_cb29896d-4b30-4043-8c70-9325a19fae1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b133b5d3-30f7-44c4-8376-95d5b5cc0bdb","kind":"paragraph","order":98,"section_id":"sec_cb29896d-4b30-4043-8c70-9325a19fae1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"銅配線の代わりに、光が走る導波路をウェハ上へ作る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b2af30dc-fc41-457a-b120-aa7d7b9e97fa","kind":"paragraph","order":99,"section_id":"sec_cb29896d-4b30-4043-8c70-9325a19fae1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"技術である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0ca2621f-004c-49a1-95f1-038f282f019a","kind":"paragraph","order":100,"section_id":"sec_cb29896d-4b30-4043-8c70-9325a19fae1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"代表的工程を簡略化すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4278595c-4952-4286-b0fd-eca4bf2024f0","kind":"paragraph","order":101,"section_id":"sec_cb29896d-4b30-4043-8c70-9325a19fae1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"SOI wafer\n ↓\nSilicon patterning\n ↓\nWaveguide etch\n ↓\nModulator用doping\n ↓\nGe photodiode形成\n ↓\nOxide / dielectric\n ↓\nMetal wiring\n ↓\nCoupler形成\n ↓\nWafer-level optical test\n ↓\nDicing","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7154f721-84a1-43e1-bb89-ec93224548f2","kind":"paragraph","order":102,"section_id":"sec_cb29896d-4b30-4043-8c70-9325a19fae1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e9540590-aeeb-4439-82c4-e85985b6667c","kind":"paragraph","order":103,"section_id":"sec_cb29896d-4b30-4043-8c70-9325a19fae1e","character_id":null,"markdown":"GFは現在100～200G/λ世代を量産し、400G/λへのロードマップを示している。Mach-Zehnder、MicroRing、RAMZIなど複数の変調器、Photodetector、SiN waveguide、edge-couplingなどをプラットフォーム化している。 (GlobalFoundries)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0dce7f3e-6500-4f7f-ab22-f4388e9960fe","kind":"heading","order":104,"section_id":"sec_ff122fe4-5285-4636-9eea-3ae0db4f0e38","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜SiPhウェハの構造と工程","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a0b07e46-4d32-4ba6-8cbb-0561b3fdd451","kind":"figure","order":105,"section_id":"sec_ff122fe4-5285-4636-9eea-3ae0db4f0e38","character_id":null,"markdown":"![SiPhウェハの構造と工程 01](/media/d22b3b00dfd060bb060e875783d7ed09f62b557d1fe42cd41c7ba23dfb9fdc02-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_018331aa-e442-4d4a-86d3-1119056d9553","kind":"figure","order":106,"section_id":"sec_ff122fe4-5285-4636-9eea-3ae0db4f0e38","character_id":null,"markdown":"![SiPhウェハの構造と工程 02](/media/892f8b079bb86257d940ae6c7a1dda0523ece6b185c3b59753ec304db2bce287-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c018200a-234c-4b90-8055-4cd886d0c394","kind":"heading","order":107,"section_id":"sec_359934b8-8707-4ae8-a5a5-a1fd063bf1ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第5章　GlobalFoundries――米国＋シンガポールの巨大SiPhファウンドリ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66a5d5c2-f95e-422d-a3f2-5d5b2ac96e04","kind":"paragraph","order":108,"section_id":"sec_359934b8-8707-4ae8-a5a5-a1fd063bf1ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"GlobalFoundriesは2025年にAdvanced Micro Foundryを買収し、SiPh事業をさらに拡大した。GFは現在、自らを世界最大のpure-play silicon photonics foundryと位置付けている。 (GlobalFoundries)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7695ceed-be09-4b61-beb3-8eef55ab862d","kind":"paragraph","order":109,"section_id":"sec_359934b8-8707-4ae8-a5a5-a1fd063bf1ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のSiPh製造拠点は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_956e38c3-cdba-492c-adf0-6eed2ec5adf4","kind":"paragraph","order":110,"section_id":"sec_359934b8-8707-4ae8-a5a5-a1fd063bf1ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"🇺🇸 Malta, New York","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_870adc0e-7c4b-4c9c-ba1c-d8fd03e85cdc","kind":"paragraph","order":111,"section_id":"sec_359934b8-8707-4ae8-a5a5-a1fd063bf1ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"🇸🇬 Singapore","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ac2208c5-6a9e-4cb4-a2d3-348097961982","kind":"paragraph","order":112,"section_id":"sec_359934b8-8707-4ae8-a5a5-a1fd063bf1ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"を中心に300mm、さらに旧AMFの200mm Singaporeラインを持つ。 (GlobalFoundries)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ac9f5335-b82d-4e4f-9b1f-7f3c8674ce54","kind":"paragraph","order":113,"section_id":"sec_359934b8-8707-4ae8-a5a5-a1fd063bf1ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"GF Singapore全体では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21411b30-870c-4f43-aa6d-4b02bd2bcb0c","kind":"paragraph","order":114,"section_id":"sec_359934b8-8707-4ae8-a5a5-a1fd063bf1ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"Cleanroom：8.7万m²","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f7f1e8f-a067-4387-8faa-fe5294939b94","kind":"paragraph","order":115,"section_id":"sec_359934b8-8707-4ae8-a5a5-a1fd063bf1ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"年間ウェハ能力：約150万枚・300mm換算","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af3853c4-0cd2-4bcf-a724-2ce2cd344828","kind":"paragraph","order":116,"section_id":"sec_359934b8-8707-4ae8-a5a5-a1fd063bf1ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。注意すべきなのは、これはSiPh専用能力ではなくCMOS、RF-SOI、SiGe、Powerなどを含むSingapore工場全体の数字だという点だ。 (GlobalFoundries)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_14a1207a-0f5c-49d1-90a8-b340b2330d4a","kind":"paragraph","order":117,"section_id":"sec_359934b8-8707-4ae8-a5a5-a1fd063bf1ff","character_id":null,"markdown":"GFはNew YorkにAdvanced Packaging and Photonics Centerも整備しており、SiPhウェハ製造からfiber attach、packaging/testまで範囲を拡大している。 (GlobalFoundries)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e3cbd386-037d-4e23-9509-3a2255545068","kind":"heading","order":118,"section_id":"sec_d693338c-2e6f-4051-9e75-974fe4baadd1","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜GlobalFoundriesのSiPh供給網","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8e4c31d-9a34-4534-999b-b4fc4d5b6126","kind":"figure","order":119,"section_id":"sec_d693338c-2e6f-4051-9e75-974fe4baadd1","character_id":null,"markdown":"![GlobalFoundriesのSiPh供給網 01](/media/93796499531531017fcf53a961ff3a6031563780d28f24a2307275cef6ca11c9-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_470abee5-d20d-439f-be41-b1a80adb932e","kind":"figure","order":120,"section_id":"sec_d693338c-2e6f-4051-9e75-974fe4baadd1","character_id":null,"markdown":"![GlobalFoundriesのSiPh供給網 02](/media/c7542ed9843ef016c3e0329919faaa6b22f7cabc8ba19aad2de3049f866ee20f-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4cd79261-4a07-46a3-ae6d-4b2d456c87d7","kind":"heading","order":121,"section_id":"sec_6a1436ea-fddc-4aea-b266-13a769e9ce50","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第6章　Tower Semiconductor――日本が世界のSiPh量産拠点へ浮上する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff56f83f-c486-4dbc-bc45-ce3fc746e19b","kind":"paragraph","order":122,"section_id":"sec_6a1436ea-fddc-4aea-b266-13a769e9ce50","character_id":null,"markdown":"Tower Semiconductorは現在、AI光通信で最も注目すべきファウンドリの一つである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7a35f7db-236d-4b64-bac2-c3b558028a3e","kind":"paragraph","order":123,"section_id":"sec_6a1436ea-fddc-4aea-b266-13a769e9ce50","character_id":null,"markdown":"2025年にはSiGe＋SiPh売上が4.21億ドルまで増加。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e1425613-4c62-4012-9484-831c8aa820c9","kind":"paragraph","order":124,"section_id":"sec_6a1436ea-fddc-4aea-b266-13a769e9ce50","character_id":null,"markdown":"Tower自身は、1.6T向けSilicon PICについて「by far the majority supplier」と説明している。SiPhはNewport Beach、San Antonio、魚津など複数拠点へ展開されている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7142e189-858d-4e4c-904a-c7bba5d23721","kind":"paragraph","order":125,"section_id":"sec_6a1436ea-fddc-4aea-b266-13a769e9ce50","character_id":null,"markdown":"特に重要なのがキャパ増強である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0619b9e7-0c28-407d-bc5b-1769027870ce","kind":"paragraph","order":126,"section_id":"sec_6a1436ea-fddc-4aea-b266-13a769e9ce50","character_id":null,"markdown":"Towerは2026年初頭時点で、SiPh能力を2025年第4四半期の実際の月間出荷量に対して5倍超へ引き上げる計画を示し、計画能力の70%以上が2028年まで予約済み、または予約手続き中としている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_36c074b4-c116-43b0-b4f5-2bd5a913b5cf","kind":"paragraph","order":127,"section_id":"sec_6a1436ea-fddc-4aea-b266-13a769e9ce50","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらに2026年5月には、2027年分だけで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_887eec79-5df3-4fc3-8642-aff1145be13d","kind":"paragraph","order":128,"section_id":"sec_6a1436ea-fddc-4aea-b266-13a769e9ce50","character_id":null,"markdown":"SiPh売上契約13億ドル＋capacity reservation前払金2.9億ドル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3a7cc5fb-b9a6-435e-ada3-5ac4748a60c0","kind":"paragraph","order":129,"section_id":"sec_6a1436ea-fddc-4aea-b266-13a769e9ce50","character_id":null,"markdown":"を公表した。 (Tower Semiconductor タワーセミコンダクター)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb2d8831-b3dc-43c8-845a-b0cdf5bf3c9b","kind":"paragraph","order":130,"section_id":"sec_6a1436ea-fddc-4aea-b266-13a769e9ce50","character_id":null,"markdown":"そして2026年7月、日本で約30億ドルの大型投資を発表。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f95951b-b73a-432d-bb91-5767a6787e0d","kind":"paragraph","order":131,"section_id":"sec_6a1436ea-fddc-4aea-b266-13a769e9ce50","character_id":null,"markdown":"新井 Fab 6 → 300mm SiPh＋Advanced Packaging","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_78532457-3636-49e7-ad1b-2aa33fe661ee","kind":"paragraph","order":132,"section_id":"sec_6a1436ea-fddc-4aea-b266-13a769e9ce50","character_id":null,"markdown":"魚津 Fab 7 → 300mm増強","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b08a0d7c-fd8b-4ac4-aa26-c5f1bfaa9eb4","kind":"paragraph","order":133,"section_id":"sec_6a1436ea-fddc-4aea-b266-13a769e9ce50","character_id":null,"markdown":"Fab 7隣接地 → 新300mm Fab","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c273dd61-97a3-4c4b-9906-d6736ac08630","kind":"paragraph","order":134,"section_id":"sec_6a1436ea-fddc-4aea-b266-13a769e9ce50","character_id":null,"markdown":"2027年第4四半期：第1段階量産準備完了","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aa783807-8e31-454d-8165-8280d9c763ad","kind":"paragraph","order":135,"section_id":"sec_6a1436ea-fddc-4aea-b266-13a769e9ce50","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本政府支援：約10億ドル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d412169-06fc-4c5f-8a7e-1855f6ccef1a","kind":"paragraph","order":136,"section_id":"sec_6a1436ea-fddc-4aea-b266-13a769e9ce50","character_id":null,"markdown":"という計画である。 (Tower Semiconductor)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7190386d-aeef-45bd-8d06-bfd82401e037","kind":"paragraph","order":137,"section_id":"sec_6a1436ea-fddc-4aea-b266-13a769e9ce50","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり日本は今後、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d56718f-5998-4950-88e4-39606519e50a","kind":"paragraph","order":138,"section_id":"sec_6a1436ea-fddc-4aea-b266-13a769e9ce50","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP材料・レーザーだけでなく、300mm SiPhファウンドリの世界的製造拠点","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f01f6d9-d06b-475b-87a9-20b9f7c78a6c","kind":"paragraph","order":139,"section_id":"sec_6a1436ea-fddc-4aea-b266-13a769e9ce50","character_id":null,"markdown":"にもなる可能性がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ce944bb-778b-427c-bc8a-3fa65aba2836","kind":"heading","order":140,"section_id":"sec_55d50a08-7cfc-47b6-a924-b9b6cc49cf9b","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Towerの日本SiPh量産拠点","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cee7786a-e731-437f-9e17-d3054203fb7c","kind":"figure","order":141,"section_id":"sec_55d50a08-7cfc-47b6-a924-b9b6cc49cf9b","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Towerの日本SiPh量産拠点 01](/media/c490bbdc2a7ebf856b68b8ce3e9edd552bb5dbf5fa5dfdb26a342f02e64f59b6-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_737f2ae3-ff7c-48ae-9d73-8cae110e7118","kind":"figure","order":142,"section_id":"sec_55d50a08-7cfc-47b6-a924-b9b6cc49cf9b","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Towerの日本SiPh量産拠点 02](/media/f4437b120bec6bf7f08014ea95a38bdce89677ff995f0e8ec500370c2450f476-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4907934d-bad7-465b-8422-c85570dff523","kind":"heading","order":143,"section_id":"sec_69c2f50f-6ac6-4a3d-845d-0d23bc03e849","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第7章　台湾・韓国・シンガポールもSiPhへ参入","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0766d8ac-623a-4e5e-bfa6-5c22e1e48c04","kind":"paragraph","order":144,"section_id":"sec_69c2f50f-6ac6-4a3d-845d-0d23bc03e849","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMC――台湾","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_be434319-d15f-49f0-9626-00384318ba98","kind":"paragraph","order":145,"section_id":"sec_69c2f50f-6ac6-4a3d-845d-0d23bc03e849","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMCはCOUPE――Compact Universal Photonic Engineを展開している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c6faa2d-f0a6-4860-8dd5-9a861ddcbdbd","kind":"paragraph","order":146,"section_id":"sec_69c2f50f-6ac6-4a3d-845d-0d23bc03e849","character_id":null,"markdown":"これはPICとEICを近接・積層し、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8efb0147-2f1b-4dc0-a72c-d8a970099369","kind":"paragraph","order":147,"section_id":"sec_69c2f50f-6ac6-4a3d-845d-0d23bc03e849","character_id":null,"markdown":"Electrical IC\n     ║\nPhotonic IC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f9f929f8-eff2-40a3-8bf7-fbd3ce4bfda3","kind":"paragraph","order":148,"section_id":"sec_69c2f50f-6ac6-4a3d-845d-0d23bc03e849","character_id":null,"markdown":"とすることで電気配線を短くし、将来的にCoWoSと統合してCPOへ持っていく技術である。 (TSMC Research)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a8023270-49f9-4111-85ba-3510c849e8a2","kind":"paragraph","order":149,"section_id":"sec_69c2f50f-6ac6-4a3d-845d-0d23bc03e849","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMCは2025年年次報告でもCOUPEをAdvanced Packaging/3D integration技術の一つに位置付けている。 (TSMC)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ef11c0e-d327-43c7-98f5-78a165974d07","kind":"paragraph","order":150,"section_id":"sec_69c2f50f-6ac6-4a3d-845d-0d23bc03e849","character_id":null,"markdown":"UMC――台湾企業、SiPh量産はシンガポール","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_642e86cf-40d2-4f91-8c3f-03f206bd0c95","kind":"paragraph","order":151,"section_id":"sec_69c2f50f-6ac6-4a3d-845d-0d23bc03e849","character_id":null,"markdown":"UMCは2026年7月、Singapore 12インチFabからSILITH向け1.6T SiPh PICの初量産ウェハを出荷した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_70f194e8-e364-494f-a170-d4877e46f35f","kind":"paragraph","order":152,"section_id":"sec_69c2f50f-6ac6-4a3d-845d-0d23bc03e849","character_id":null,"markdown":"開発開始から量産準備まで18カ月で到達している。 (UMC)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b2bc392c-1b77-4266-aa52-bc43c66165d1","kind":"paragraph","order":153,"section_id":"sec_69c2f50f-6ac6-4a3d-845d-0d23bc03e849","character_id":null,"markdown":"UMC全体の能力は12インチ換算で月40万枚超だが、これもSiPh専用ではない。 (UMC)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_216dd7f1-646c-4585-bcbe-6d37db9f0970","kind":"paragraph","order":154,"section_id":"sec_69c2f50f-6ac6-4a3d-845d-0d23bc03e849","character_id":null,"markdown":"Samsung――韓国","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ce36f2d-0bdc-4900-850e-89743695260e","kind":"paragraph","order":155,"section_id":"sec_69c2f50f-6ac6-4a3d-845d-0d23bc03e849","character_id":null,"markdown":"Samsung Foundryも2026年にSiPh事業基盤の確立を公式決算で言及した。報道ベースでは300mm SiPh PDKを準備し、顧客設計獲得後の量産を視野に入れている。 (Samsung Global Newsroom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_555f8db0-6ca2-4735-af41-a5dc78040d3b","kind":"paragraph","order":156,"section_id":"sec_69c2f50f-6ac6-4a3d-845d-0d23bc03e849","character_id":null,"markdown":"Samsungはファウンドリ全体では世界2位だが、merchant SiPhではGFやTowerより後発である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6d1f6051-d63e-4bfa-97b6-2646bc94e438","kind":"paragraph","order":157,"section_id":"sec_69c2f50f-6ac6-4a3d-845d-0d23bc03e849","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは逆に言えば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_730c491f-e9db-4699-a72e-da3dfa417b1f","kind":"paragraph","order":158,"section_id":"sec_69c2f50f-6ac6-4a3d-845d-0d23bc03e849","character_id":null,"markdown":"韓国には巨大なCMOS量産基盤があるが、SiPhはこれから本格化する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c4d78fdd-ee0a-4536-b711-388bb83e78f5","kind":"paragraph","order":159,"section_id":"sec_69c2f50f-6ac6-4a3d-845d-0d23bc03e849","character_id":null,"markdown":"という構図である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b65c6de2-732e-4573-923c-93afdf02e9aa","kind":"heading","order":160,"section_id":"sec_b18117e1-9a5e-4926-ae7d-b92a939ab541","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜アジアのSiPh量産参入","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6354c1c2-e8ad-4105-923e-906c4e684ade","kind":"figure","order":161,"section_id":"sec_b18117e1-9a5e-4926-ae7d-b92a939ab541","character_id":null,"markdown":"![アジアのSiPh量産参入 01](/media/9c070c7e229648c47d3039c25b7f2e91c6163f6df324d68af18f839c480d75a3-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_65fb089f-c51f-45d2-b0f5-1dfe767a3d95","kind":"figure","order":162,"section_id":"sec_b18117e1-9a5e-4926-ae7d-b92a939ab541","character_id":null,"markdown":"![アジアのSiPh量産参入 02](/media/8d3ebed5c2032bc57509fbcf606454d2ff2a610a65cdfc738e3008916b158ee3-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0908234f-8929-4fc6-a405-cd4116fea039","kind":"figure","order":163,"section_id":"sec_b18117e1-9a5e-4926-ae7d-b92a939ab541","character_id":null,"markdown":"![アジアのSiPh量産参入 03](/media/1a7deceab595251ea21cb8c0e636a30e8bf6392b750a3ca36ff6f59879fd2993-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5f739e2-c610-4c96-a6f6-efe0b00c7b00","kind":"heading","order":164,"section_id":"sec_bbf1f2e9-1b1b-42a5-8c08-97e1332b94fa","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第8章　CWレーザーファブ――SiPhが増えるほどInPが必要になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a37371bc-ad64-408a-aacc-f3ed9cfdeeee","kind":"paragraph","order":165,"section_id":"sec_bbf1f2e9-1b1b-42a5-8c08-97e1332b94fa","character_id":null,"markdown":"SiPhの大きな弱点は、シリコンそのものが効率的な光源になりにくいことだ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_498b22e7-0644-47c9-9f40-86067e5ae6f9","kind":"paragraph","order":166,"section_id":"sec_bbf1f2e9-1b1b-42a5-8c08-97e1332b94fa","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこで外部からInP CWレーザーを使う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d421c8f4-e582-4849-9c45-d0b2b10ecdae","kind":"paragraph","order":167,"section_id":"sec_bbf1f2e9-1b1b-42a5-8c08-97e1332b94fa","character_id":null,"markdown":"Electricity\n ↓\nInP CW Laser\n ↓\n連続光\n ↓\nSiPh Modulator\n ↓\nPAM4 optical signal","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5f3de1c-ea77-46b8-969d-7912b186c14a","kind":"paragraph","order":168,"section_id":"sec_bbf1f2e9-1b1b-42a5-8c08-97e1332b94fa","character_id":null,"markdown":"EMLとの違いは重要である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9cb2bf03-347e-49c3-898b-b1f6facf7123","kind":"paragraph","order":169,"section_id":"sec_bbf1f2e9-1b1b-42a5-8c08-97e1332b94fa","character_id":null,"markdown":"EML","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_02d1d894-0122-4364-8fd4-855038b20417","kind":"paragraph","order":170,"section_id":"sec_bbf1f2e9-1b1b-42a5-8c08-97e1332b94fa","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP DFB Laser\n      +\nEAM Modulator","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b6b22cbe-1d6e-4314-b652-076b1ca70175","kind":"paragraph","order":171,"section_id":"sec_bbf1f2e9-1b1b-42a5-8c08-97e1332b94fa","character_id":null,"markdown":"SiPh","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_137c6391-2285-4eae-9c40-4d38848c2597","kind":"paragraph","order":172,"section_id":"sec_bbf1f2e9-1b1b-42a5-8c08-97e1332b94fa","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP CW Laser\n      +\nSilicon Modulator","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_393e2efb-ffec-41e6-906f-a44dd6f711b6","kind":"paragraph","order":173,"section_id":"sec_bbf1f2e9-1b1b-42a5-8c08-97e1332b94fa","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりSiPhが伸びるとInPが不要になるのではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21e9fda8-fb23-4631-abea-bb16ab5b3931","kind":"paragraph","order":174,"section_id":"sec_bbf1f2e9-1b1b-42a5-8c08-97e1332b94fa","character_id":null,"markdown":"むしろ、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71b6079f-6fcb-4b70-bd15-5e7546261bda","kind":"paragraph","order":175,"section_id":"sec_bbf1f2e9-1b1b-42a5-8c08-97e1332b94fa","character_id":null,"markdown":"変調器はSiへ移るが、光源としてInP CWレーザーが大量に必要になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b8191dc2-010d-44ec-8b9d-e7764d76851d","kind":"paragraph","order":176,"section_id":"sec_bbf1f2e9-1b1b-42a5-8c08-97e1332b94fa","character_id":null,"markdown":"のである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d6f11705-6614-4ff4-8094-7b819fdc2b19","kind":"paragraph","order":177,"section_id":"sec_bbf1f2e9-1b1b-42a5-8c08-97e1332b94fa","character_id":null,"markdown":"住友電工はIntra-DC向け光デバイスの数量構成について、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6149f3c9-c79e-4544-b000-a5d3df053b4f","kind":"table","order":178,"section_id":"sec_bbf1f2e9-1b1b-42a5-8c08-97e1332b94fa","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 年 | EML | CW-LD |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 2024 | 76% | 24% |\n| 2026 | 55% | 45% |\n| 2028 | 31% | 69% |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0a3eab18-206b-4bc7-a7ab-0975c87a65e5","kind":"paragraph","order":179,"section_id":"sec_bbf1f2e9-1b1b-42a5-8c08-97e1332b94fa","character_id":null,"markdown":"と予測している。 (Sumitomo Electric)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6bcb4293-8c0d-48f4-86be-655ecd5c95d9","kind":"heading","order":180,"section_id":"sec_ce96292e-57cd-4be2-acdd-ac3ab28f2641","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜SiPhとInP CWレーザー","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_be7ed4f3-f0a1-4d6d-9ade-a949518e80f1","kind":"figure","order":181,"section_id":"sec_ce96292e-57cd-4be2-acdd-ac3ab28f2641","character_id":null,"markdown":"![SiPhとInP CWレーザー 01](/media/0614701a7d086a8aa394c0eb38f6c56d54a3a52ee0736674da1bdecacc4bf45b-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f1af0bfb-8077-4b88-8e84-00e8eb4e024e","kind":"figure","order":182,"section_id":"sec_ce96292e-57cd-4be2-acdd-ac3ab28f2641","character_id":null,"markdown":"![SiPhとInP CWレーザー 02](/media/92f9459fa41476b3a266ec2d9f375adf9326ed5cbc1dd2fae3282e6dcb5665e8-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e38052cf-7a98-456f-a0a6-37ae3cfb326a","kind":"figure","order":183,"section_id":"sec_ce96292e-57cd-4be2-acdd-ac3ab28f2641","character_id":null,"markdown":"![SiPhとInP CWレーザー 03](/media/365bf2acd4fa0efcd3079270c9300b867430f2a2bba4825f651d2b93ccd1b4aa-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc9d4aff-ca03-41e8-96d1-4c27b26c3840","kind":"heading","order":184,"section_id":"sec_48930ad9-5afa-4fd6-9bd1-b73d248c1935","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第9章　InPレーザーはどう作るのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c7ee92cd-b4c7-4b6f-80f8-971e14baff5e","kind":"paragraph","order":185,"section_id":"sec_48930ad9-5afa-4fd6-9bd1-b73d248c1935","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPファブは300mm CMOSとはまったく違う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_facf9e2b-8eb4-40b1-bfb7-eb9098664627","kind":"paragraph","order":186,"section_id":"sec_48930ad9-5afa-4fd6-9bd1-b73d248c1935","character_id":null,"markdown":"代表的工程は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b0a1cb3-6448-4e20-8a49-e4f2e533a9a2","kind":"paragraph","order":187,"section_id":"sec_48930ad9-5afa-4fd6-9bd1-b73d248c1935","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP substrate\n ↓\nEpitaxial growth\n ↓\nMQW active layer\n ↓\nDFB grating形成\n ↓\n再成長\n ↓\nMesa / waveguide processing\n ↓\nP/N contacts\n ↓\nWafer test\n ↓\nCleave / Dicing\n ↓\nFacet coating\n ↓\nDie attach\n ↓\nBurn-in / reliability test","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1dc32dde-cf0a-4e97-8ae3-04ffaee3f915","kind":"paragraph","order":188,"section_id":"sec_48930ad9-5afa-4fd6-9bd1-b73d248c1935","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9626af71-eb53-4ce9-a551-17ee8d0d69f8","kind":"paragraph","order":189,"section_id":"sec_48930ad9-5afa-4fd6-9bd1-b73d248c1935","character_id":null,"markdown":"特に難しいのが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_034efde5-04fb-45a0-aabf-c442cd0c20b4","kind":"paragraph","order":190,"section_id":"sec_48930ad9-5afa-4fd6-9bd1-b73d248c1935","character_id":null,"markdown":"Epitaxyの均一性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_290d8b0a-c980-4cdf-9cf3-83e744259b01","kind":"paragraph","order":191,"section_id":"sec_48930ad9-5afa-4fd6-9bd1-b73d248c1935","character_id":null,"markdown":"MQW成長","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b4d912d3-202c-4d22-adef-2437fc847b63","kind":"paragraph","order":192,"section_id":"sec_48930ad9-5afa-4fd6-9bd1-b73d248c1935","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB格子周期","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ba667913-6dde-4b80-ac73-7257173387b0","kind":"paragraph","order":193,"section_id":"sec_48930ad9-5afa-4fd6-9bd1-b73d248c1935","character_id":null,"markdown":"Regrowth","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9db4f8ca-9c2f-422d-9fef-f125467a0b81","kind":"paragraph","order":194,"section_id":"sec_48930ad9-5afa-4fd6-9bd1-b73d248c1935","character_id":null,"markdown":"Waveguide寸法","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e02412e0-e3d7-475e-8885-6f56b6256103","kind":"paragraph","order":195,"section_id":"sec_48930ad9-5afa-4fd6-9bd1-b73d248c1935","character_id":null,"markdown":"Facet coating","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_04fc6136-c5ac-466a-8d81-cf00386a8268","kind":"paragraph","order":196,"section_id":"sec_48930ad9-5afa-4fd6-9bd1-b73d248c1935","character_id":null,"markdown":"熱抵抗","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c410fe77-d25d-48a0-a3f2-71b74d858c2f","kind":"paragraph","order":197,"section_id":"sec_48930ad9-5afa-4fd6-9bd1-b73d248c1935","character_id":null,"markdown":"Aging/Burn-in","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c3ac4d97-ccd6-4a79-9850-ab3b713d428c","kind":"paragraph","order":198,"section_id":"sec_48930ad9-5afa-4fd6-9bd1-b73d248c1935","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9f4d7b82-6775-4dcb-bee0-3b84c5651447","kind":"paragraph","order":199,"section_id":"sec_48930ad9-5afa-4fd6-9bd1-b73d248c1935","character_id":null,"markdown":"住友電工もCW-LD高出力化では、結晶成長時の温度・ガス比・不純物濃度を精密制御し、電流リークを抑えることが重要だと説明している。 (Sumitomo Electric)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c38db43f-71da-4435-99db-bf23c823687b","kind":"paragraph","order":200,"section_id":"sec_48930ad9-5afa-4fd6-9bd1-b73d248c1935","character_id":null,"markdown":"CMOSなら巨大ウェハ上で数十億個のトランジスタを一括製造する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af68c50a-d3e4-4b4e-b3d8-a85fee727efb","kind":"paragraph","order":201,"section_id":"sec_48930ad9-5afa-4fd6-9bd1-b73d248c1935","character_id":null,"markdown":"InPレーザーでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd5c0b88-e764-4d37-8766-b39a19503922","kind":"paragraph","order":202,"section_id":"sec_48930ad9-5afa-4fd6-9bd1-b73d248c1935","character_id":null,"markdown":"「発光性能」「波長」「光出力」「寿命」そのものが歩留まりに直結する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_056ea4c6-76fb-484b-84ed-fa88e4a2bb2c","kind":"paragraph","order":203,"section_id":"sec_48930ad9-5afa-4fd6-9bd1-b73d248c1935","character_id":null,"markdown":"この違いが増産難易度を高めている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7800792d-4d12-4564-b95f-03a5704196d5","kind":"heading","order":204,"section_id":"sec_6e4909f1-d05a-4846-94e2-cbe4eb2f2da3","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜InPレーザー製造と断面","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7a623193-7424-43e5-8880-b63df34dcd6b","kind":"figure","order":205,"section_id":"sec_6e4909f1-d05a-4846-94e2-cbe4eb2f2da3","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InPレーザー製造と断面 01](/media/972a79f4a0ef1255b06a75caa1ba5505a26e33cbec8b84f489a918eff8aa0413-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ed1a475-11a3-4800-84ed-7d62dcaf31f4","kind":"figure","order":206,"section_id":"sec_6e4909f1-d05a-4846-94e2-cbe4eb2f2da3","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InPレーザー製造と断面 02](/media/5f925e76359c2935eb64a617b1dba851262dc613239d1c9d1b758bc3a2fe311f-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d4729a36-3290-4c9a-bdef-6da65bf9fa97","kind":"figure","order":207,"section_id":"sec_6e4909f1-d05a-4846-94e2-cbe4eb2f2da3","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InPレーザー製造と断面 03](/media/d44b9e9b0b9ff40f111283376e184d312148849382b2512726a15a68e7fa085d-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21f5dfc9-fe18-459e-bef9-fb5fc1a75c8e","kind":"heading","order":208,"section_id":"sec_86a713a7-a3af-48a7-a2e9-cd7a90655518","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第10章　Coherent――米国とスウェーデンの6インチInP","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6c754548-c026-4b07-abb5-391a0533cfa4","kind":"paragraph","order":209,"section_id":"sec_86a713a7-a3af-48a7-a2e9-cd7a90655518","character_id":null,"markdown":"CoherentはInPで最も強力な垂直統合企業の一つである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd206f36-6061-4936-85d5-225f93ff3ee4","kind":"paragraph","order":210,"section_id":"sec_86a713a7-a3af-48a7-a2e9-cd7a90655518","character_id":null,"markdown":"主要拠点として、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7aec71c-f65d-41e3-8a75-b4b9a99d166c","kind":"paragraph","order":211,"section_id":"sec_86a713a7-a3af-48a7-a2e9-cd7a90655518","character_id":null,"markdown":"🇺🇸 Sherman, Texas","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_76c1733e-fc06-4bbc-9398-b147257c3e3c","kind":"paragraph","order":212,"section_id":"sec_86a713a7-a3af-48a7-a2e9-cd7a90655518","character_id":null,"markdown":"🇸🇪 Järfälla, Sweden","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_80890e5f-1957-464a-ad3a-7d18ba59f1bf","kind":"paragraph","order":213,"section_id":"sec_86a713a7-a3af-48a7-a2e9-cd7a90655518","character_id":null,"markdown":"に6インチInP能力を構築している。 (Coherent Inc)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c4dfc06-0613-4b35-bfbe-57e3136457cc","kind":"paragraph","order":214,"section_id":"sec_86a713a7-a3af-48a7-a2e9-cd7a90655518","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来3インチから6インチへ移行すると、理論面積は4倍になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33bb4390-7971-4e25-9807-a21676b58a02","kind":"paragraph","order":215,"section_id":"sec_86a713a7-a3af-48a7-a2e9-cd7a90655518","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coherent自身も、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad86bf59-816a-4249-9603-971c63ccff93","kind":"paragraph","order":216,"section_id":"sec_86a713a7-a3af-48a7-a2e9-cd7a90655518","character_id":null,"markdown":"1ウェハ当たりデバイス数：約4倍Die cost：60%以上低減","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_775e6cb4-ec18-4774-8e33-19f71471cdf9","kind":"paragraph","order":217,"section_id":"sec_86a713a7-a3af-48a7-a2e9-cd7a90655518","character_id":null,"markdown":"を見込んでいる。 (Coherent Inc)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8285f4cb-7e27-46a1-9bac-2de9f848ccb1","kind":"paragraph","order":218,"section_id":"sec_86a713a7-a3af-48a7-a2e9-cd7a90655518","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらにShermanのCWレーザーについては、6インチ化によって生産能力5倍超を目標としている。 (Coherent Inc)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_34da5294-2f60-4cfe-b90a-42b9c0dd96e3","kind":"paragraph","order":219,"section_id":"sec_86a713a7-a3af-48a7-a2e9-cd7a90655518","character_id":null,"markdown":"これはAI光通信において非常に大きい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3cb7afe5-f7e2-4851-be99-96cc0705c684","kind":"paragraph","order":220,"section_id":"sec_86a713a7-a3af-48a7-a2e9-cd7a90655518","character_id":null,"markdown":"SiPh foundryが300mmへ拡大しても、光源が3インチInPのままでは供給のバランスが崩れる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93fae52e-86ba-4335-9283-b71a994c0c45","kind":"paragraph","order":221,"section_id":"sec_86a713a7-a3af-48a7-a2e9-cd7a90655518","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのためCoherentは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8af9d8e1-14eb-4631-9eab-677f847057ed","kind":"paragraph","order":222,"section_id":"sec_86a713a7-a3af-48a7-a2e9-cd7a90655518","character_id":null,"markdown":"3インチ→6インチ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d6836ab-cd68-4458-a19d-cd90faee3d0f","kind":"paragraph","order":223,"section_id":"sec_86a713a7-a3af-48a7-a2e9-cd7a90655518","character_id":null,"markdown":"というInP側の「大径化」を進めている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2eccd090-176f-44e8-98c6-2bf486ff6f4e","kind":"heading","order":224,"section_id":"sec_355671c6-a782-4872-9964-47b639da0cc4","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Coherentの6インチInP","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0f3dabf4-11cc-4411-835b-b2093004c294","kind":"figure","order":225,"section_id":"sec_355671c6-a782-4872-9964-47b639da0cc4","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Coherentの6インチInP 01](/media/2000c10064a65fce6b2a866aaee20dd797f1e3b80d0973dde75ee8078234e1c3-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_61ef390d-b172-4cf8-a218-c6e5cf66bc71","kind":"figure","order":226,"section_id":"sec_355671c6-a782-4872-9964-47b639da0cc4","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Coherentの6インチInP 02](/media/8f07abee15e5b7ef92e75881fc3ca97d2a7981469f1bd43f82c5274ac15faa0e-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f1fa9adc-2268-41ca-a7f0-07d36d6342df","kind":"figure","order":227,"section_id":"sec_355671c6-a782-4872-9964-47b639da0cc4","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Coherentの6インチInP 03](/media/d3187207db99b6f833862264aff80d9a47fa5a664d4dbb6fb479e45a0dcd5837-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d314b706-457e-4b14-8ae3-0656f5e3403a","kind":"heading","order":228,"section_id":"sec_bf5dd2ca-2e1d-4d9a-bfb7-eb4d437cf534","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第11章　Lumentum――米国・英国・日本のInPネットワーク","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3dd6c4d2-d032-4c1a-881d-533b7e24a3bd","kind":"paragraph","order":229,"section_id":"sec_bf5dd2ca-2e1d-4d9a-bfb7-eb4d437cf534","character_id":null,"markdown":"LumentumもInP垂直統合企業である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7221c6f6-a3f7-43d6-80d2-79880e9d7dad","kind":"paragraph","order":230,"section_id":"sec_bf5dd2ca-2e1d-4d9a-bfb7-eb4d437cf534","character_id":null,"markdown":"同社によれば既存ウェハFabは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_74d0ef60-abab-4f1a-99fc-b2d40b800118","kind":"paragraph","order":231,"section_id":"sec_bf5dd2ca-2e1d-4d9a-bfb7-eb4d437cf534","character_id":null,"markdown":"🇺🇸 San Jose, California","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88bec139-5b64-4695-9a3a-f384dae7c3ca","kind":"paragraph","order":232,"section_id":"sec_bf5dd2ca-2e1d-4d9a-bfb7-eb4d437cf534","character_id":null,"markdown":"🇬🇧 Caswell, UK","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5b4a134-748b-4813-af5c-2407657c7d27","kind":"paragraph","order":233,"section_id":"sec_bf5dd2ca-2e1d-4d9a-bfb7-eb4d437cf534","character_id":null,"markdown":"🇯🇵 Sagamihara","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8baf6ee2-2c03-442f-9b73-de5b3c32a602","kind":"paragraph","order":234,"section_id":"sec_bf5dd2ca-2e1d-4d9a-bfb7-eb4d437cf534","character_id":null,"markdown":"🇯🇵 Takao","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_719b9a9c-f289-4bbc-9a79-2db1cbaf4787","kind":"paragraph","order":235,"section_id":"sec_bf5dd2ca-2e1d-4d9a-bfb7-eb4d437cf534","character_id":null,"markdown":"の4拠点。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2a7a5dc6-8dcc-41d1-a8a0-9e3be0424f8c","kind":"paragraph","order":236,"section_id":"sec_bf5dd2ca-2e1d-4d9a-bfb7-eb4d437cf534","character_id":null,"markdown":"主なAssembly/TestはThailandに置いている。 (Lumentum)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e649059-ec1c-4c56-a77e-de5a3ed83319","kind":"paragraph","order":237,"section_id":"sec_bf5dd2ca-2e1d-4d9a-bfb7-eb4d437cf534","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらに2026年にはNorth Carolina・GreensboroにQorvoから取得した24万平方フィートの施設を6インチInP工場へ改造すると発表した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_02571021-906c-4138-a783-1c66ef613203","kind":"paragraph","order":238,"section_id":"sec_bf5dd2ca-2e1d-4d9a-bfb7-eb4d437cf534","character_id":null,"markdown":"CW/UHPレーザーは2028年半ばから立ち上げ予定である。 (Lumentum Investor Relations)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f7fb550b-ac9d-48a3-8ca9-c0428fe4f52b","kind":"paragraph","order":239,"section_id":"sec_bf5dd2ca-2e1d-4d9a-bfb7-eb4d437cf534","character_id":null,"markdown":"Lumentum自身はこの拠点について、完全稼働時の潜在規模を年50億ドル相当のchip-level revenue capacityと説明している。これは実際の売上予想ではなく、同社が示す生産能力換算値として読む必要がある。 (Lumentum)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1fbc116c-3565-4084-bd69-c2b234a80109","kind":"heading","order":240,"section_id":"sec_81cbb7d3-fe63-4919-9e21-4a75ddca8bc3","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜LumentumのInP増産網","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ba435cb6-bfce-4d1c-b669-fea29234d5dc","kind":"figure","order":241,"section_id":"sec_81cbb7d3-fe63-4919-9e21-4a75ddca8bc3","character_id":null,"markdown":"![LumentumのInP増産網 01](/media/ce432b7c0cdf8b5ffaa827d935c22ecfc20baa02ba6439f547b30ccf31e970bc-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a24e09f7-511d-4445-9abb-f7db800094b2","kind":"figure","order":242,"section_id":"sec_81cbb7d3-fe63-4919-9e21-4a75ddca8bc3","character_id":null,"markdown":"![LumentumのInP増産網 02](/media/4a4f6b340ad2d78ec14c08660fd88399b3e6e4558377d5981b145ac26dcea801-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_231a3aa8-f0dc-4b93-b1b8-038acac0af4a","kind":"heading","order":243,"section_id":"sec_0ee03261-b0a0-40fd-a58d-c1c05df80a10","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 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EML","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_379ddf11-7160-42c6-a0e3-3fc352ee8c69","kind":"paragraph","order":248,"section_id":"sec_0ee03261-b0a0-40fd-a58d-c1c05df80a10","character_id":null,"markdown":"350mW超級CW-LD","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b42399a1-efcb-4e70-9594-53540b061c2f","kind":"paragraph","order":249,"section_id":"sec_0ee03261-b0a0-40fd-a58d-c1c05df80a10","character_id":null,"markdown":"を持つ。 (Sumitomo Electric)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_49004ab7-4928-4106-9853-9872bf2b6137","kind":"paragraph","order":250,"section_id":"sec_0ee03261-b0a0-40fd-a58d-c1c05df80a10","character_id":null,"markdown":"2023年を基準にした2028年計画では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3845fee1-b3fe-4737-abc2-185d0988fbad","kind":"paragraph","order":251,"section_id":"sec_0ee03261-b0a0-40fd-a58d-c1c05df80a10","character_id":null,"markdown":"Intra-DC向け光デバイス能力：約12倍InP substrate能力：約2.4倍","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dec8f277-4afd-4240-9f65-7bf67a32c856","kind":"paragraph","order":252,"section_id":"sec_0ee03261-b0a0-40fd-a58d-c1c05df80a10","character_id":null,"markdown":"を掲げている。 (Sumitomo Electric)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff71fd27-4710-4b49-b49f-1e43616f0c31","kind":"paragraph","order":253,"section_id":"sec_0ee03261-b0a0-40fd-a58d-c1c05df80a10","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって日本は光ファブの中で、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d18c8c5-d05e-4c85-b7c0-5d03e1c08815","kind":"paragraph","order":254,"section_id":"sec_0ee03261-b0a0-40fd-a58d-c1c05df80a10","character_id":null,"markdown":"Tower＝SiPhSumitomo＝InP 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Photonics","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ce496d45-a2ad-4eba-b7b8-6acf8c179b0a","kind":"paragraph","order":261,"section_id":"sec_77a1f880-cc5d-45fe-8f53-2998d1f3a5e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coherent、Lumentum、住友電工は基本的に自社製品を作るIDM型である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6889ce1f-a991-4b6e-be71-05f1c80cab69","kind":"paragraph","order":262,"section_id":"sec_77a1f880-cc5d-45fe-8f53-2998d1f3a5e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"それに対しオランダのSMART Photonicsは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a39e65a7-4235-4e21-a232-d1e7ea1d732e","kind":"paragraph","order":263,"section_id":"sec_77a1f880-cc5d-45fe-8f53-2998d1f3a5e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"顧客がInP PICを設計し、SMARTがウェハを製造する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0a243060-6c4f-4c6a-bbc2-b0db7f683a1f","kind":"paragraph","order":264,"section_id":"sec_77a1f880-cc5d-45fe-8f53-2998d1f3a5e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"というpure-play InP 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Photonics)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_133a8255-003d-4c67-8102-c1ec82e89cd6","kind":"paragraph","order":267,"section_id":"sec_77a1f880-cc5d-45fe-8f53-2998d1f3a5e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のInP世界を見ると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_17644307-8830-4693-8d41-4ad5125f8e19","kind":"paragraph","order":268,"section_id":"sec_77a1f880-cc5d-45fe-8f53-2998d1f3a5e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"IDM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a794248c-aec2-4aa9-be69-b163c4f213ea","kind":"paragraph","order":269,"section_id":"sec_77a1f880-cc5d-45fe-8f53-2998d1f3a5e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coherent\nLumentum\nSumitomo\nBroadcom一部","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b8322ce-4c19-4121-84a6-bb2db4fe12f8","kind":"paragraph","order":270,"section_id":"sec_77a1f880-cc5d-45fe-8f53-2998d1f3a5e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"VS","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d614400-77d3-46d0-86f8-8589f5042eb7","kind":"paragraph","order":271,"section_id":"sec_77a1f880-cc5d-45fe-8f53-2998d1f3a5e8","character_id":null,"markdown":"Pure-play 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|","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3edc149-a06c-43bd-b80d-45d5adb47d66","kind":"paragraph","order":284,"section_id":"sec_8115eb92-f752-43f3-b3b9-ebda49008180","character_id":null,"markdown":"Towerは日本で約30億ドルを投じ、新井・魚津をSiPh/SiGe/Advanced Packaging拠点へ拡張する。 (Tower Semiconductor)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ff39c81-566f-416d-a857-f19a00520a0c","kind":"paragraph","order":285,"section_id":"sec_8115eb92-f752-43f3-b3b9-ebda49008180","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP / CW Laser","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9346e03c-2fc4-4411-8005-be2a4bcd4171","kind":"paragraph","order":286,"section_id":"sec_8115eb92-f752-43f3-b3b9-ebda49008180","character_id":null,"markdown":"地域企業ウェハ指標🇺🇸/🇸🇪Coherent6\"Sherman能力5倍超🇺🇸/🇬🇧/🇯🇵Lumentum複数、6\"拡大Greensboro 240k ft²🇯🇵Sumitomo4～6\"光デバイス能力2028年約12倍🇳🇱SMART Photonics4\"→6\" pilot4\"化で約2倍🇺🇸/🇸🇬BroadcomIII-V独自InP/GaAs一部内製","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e2436b31-5894-4347-a8d2-39b977e6ec82","kind":"paragraph","order":287,"section_id":"sec_8115eb92-f752-43f3-b3b9-ebda49008180","character_id":null,"markdown":"(Coherent Inc)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e6b3eda-ca1c-49f4-8e6d-e79ba23bbcdd","kind":"heading","order":288,"section_id":"sec_8b4c783d-b131-47d3-af71-777f621cdf1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜世界の光Fab四層構造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1b077e1a-0faa-44ad-8d5e-89379f5b420b","kind":"figure","order":289,"section_id":"sec_8b4c783d-b131-47d3-af71-777f621cdf1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"![世界の光Fab四層構造 01](/media/d975c56a9dc28884cf4b79ae438c36fa8330ee4d54f0b52e88078585866b0629-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8209ad3b-3f66-4b83-a6e0-ac9c2ddfe747","kind":"figure","order":290,"section_id":"sec_8b4c783d-b131-47d3-af71-777f621cdf1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"![世界の光Fab四層構造 02](/media/35690a48c935ac3e7e9ad688875f7205d154afa95af962379fd0beb4cad63ce8-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a271f81a-275c-4ba5-bbbd-a2f9dd17c74d","kind":"figure","order":291,"section_id":"sec_8b4c783d-b131-47d3-af71-777f621cdf1d","character_id":null,"markdown":"![世界の光Fab四層構造 03](/media/afb406b298ae004ddb5ffa5ff3cc0c29b197415dfb12df8a3e890dc7d5b6e36f-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2620812f-a3f4-4df1-97f8-b06fb95a8060","kind":"heading","order":292,"section_id":"sec_af80a663-98e2-4510-a009-8d5cdf12fcad","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第15章　Module工場――中国が圧倒的に強い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19313394-7433-4b8a-9556-d64e776ad3b9","kind":"paragraph","order":293,"section_id":"sec_af80a663-98e2-4510-a009-8d5cdf12fcad","character_id":null,"markdown":"ウェハを全部作っても光トランシーバーは完成しない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ac64ed1f-80d6-4d2e-a376-572e11cf520c","kind":"paragraph","order":294,"section_id":"sec_af80a663-98e2-4510-a009-8d5cdf12fcad","character_id":null,"markdown":"最終的には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c891a3e-5d90-40fb-98e6-de54f9ffdce3","kind":"paragraph","order":295,"section_id":"sec_af80a663-98e2-4510-a009-8d5cdf12fcad","character_id":null,"markdown":"DSPLaserSiPh PICTIADriverFiberPCB","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d9700e94-1997-45e8-9a9e-37c050534dd1","kind":"paragraph","order":296,"section_id":"sec_af80a663-98e2-4510-a009-8d5cdf12fcad","character_id":null,"markdown":"を一つのモジュールへまとめなければならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a7dc21db-d254-4572-bf2f-a78b65019b68","kind":"paragraph","order":297,"section_id":"sec_af80a663-98e2-4510-a009-8d5cdf12fcad","character_id":null,"markdown":"この「Module manufacturing」では中国企業が非常に強い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_42a6b382-9930-468c-b6b7-714a6b057346","kind":"paragraph","order":298,"section_id":"sec_af80a663-98e2-4510-a009-8d5cdf12fcad","character_id":null,"markdown":"TrendForceは2026年について、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8cde8be3-0a41-4fdc-a2f5-d24d3eb05b69","kind":"paragraph","order":299,"section_id":"sec_af80a663-98e2-4510-a009-8d5cdf12fcad","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国系光モジュールメーカー：約56%の世界製造能力Innolight＋Eoptolink＋CIG：約46%","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c6a6761-66e0-4354-b20c-23eff753db64","kind":"paragraph","order":300,"section_id":"sec_af80a663-98e2-4510-a009-8d5cdf12fcad","character_id":null,"markdown":"と推計している。 (trendforce.com)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5ba70c4-64a5-4139-bd2d-26a19ff9c787","kind":"paragraph","order":301,"section_id":"sec_af80a663-98e2-4510-a009-8d5cdf12fcad","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方で、中国系メーカーのEML/CWレーザー製造能力は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_81db5f2f-2ad5-4a5c-820f-2a8cc3867d54","kind":"paragraph","order":302,"section_id":"sec_af80a663-98e2-4510-a009-8d5cdf12fcad","character_id":null,"markdown":"2025年：16.05%2028年予想：27.58%","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_06826e12-7948-4d1c-bd02-65c0d18a2a6c","kind":"paragraph","order":303,"section_id":"sec_af80a663-98e2-4510-a009-8d5cdf12fcad","character_id":null,"markdown":"にとどまる。 (trendforce.com)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_481a2ffb-8111-4ae3-b6a3-a88b6db686b6","kind":"paragraph","order":304,"section_id":"sec_af80a663-98e2-4510-a009-8d5cdf12fcad","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり現在の光サプライチェーンには非常に大きな非対称性が存在する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66eaea9e-1d31-4ca6-957a-c1bce5267402","kind":"paragraph","order":305,"section_id":"sec_af80a663-98e2-4510-a009-8d5cdf12fcad","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_09cffe6e-3bcd-41c7-8a11-575fea655738","kind":"paragraph","order":306,"section_id":"sec_af80a663-98e2-4510-a009-8d5cdf12fcad","character_id":null,"markdown":"Module assembly\n████████████████████████████","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b4b4d9ec-92e6-47c0-8c0e-c45e31a28205","kind":"paragraph","order":307,"section_id":"sec_af80a663-98e2-4510-a009-8d5cdf12fcad","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical packaging\n████████████████████████","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a4af0b4d-161b-4e41-8a3e-20acc9c0796c","kind":"paragraph","order":308,"section_id":"sec_af80a663-98e2-4510-a009-8d5cdf12fcad","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP Laser\n████████","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dfdec4ce-d173-4354-a190-6fd2e3f1e626","kind":"paragraph","order":309,"section_id":"sec_af80a663-98e2-4510-a009-8d5cdf12fcad","character_id":null,"markdown":"下流モジュールは中国が強い。しかし上流レーザーは依然として米国・欧州・日本への依存度が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b234ffc4-831b-4c50-977d-9586f8edf054","kind":"heading","order":310,"section_id":"sec_5941cbe8-424c-4ce7-a47c-b2460f783ef4","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜中国Module量産と非対称性","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ae1dc21-1798-4af2-8b91-f098598195a0","kind":"figure","order":311,"section_id":"sec_5941cbe8-424c-4ce7-a47c-b2460f783ef4","character_id":null,"markdown":"![中国Module量産と非対称性 01](/media/7fc35b3d7aa7e0c48b8a08fe9f83a93bad01efab3025f6f10c08467eda3a7347-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d62e99d-0810-42d8-b963-e23cac47d5a8","kind":"figure","order":312,"section_id":"sec_5941cbe8-424c-4ce7-a47c-b2460f783ef4","character_id":null,"markdown":"![中国Module量産と非対称性 02](/media/0fbc8de7588f0c6819c7d14e1b1f4ea9092d020aab96b55ee1e245131b106625-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a27d85d4-5ab3-4a83-be33-6042267f26bf","kind":"heading","order":313,"section_id":"sec_1ab4286e-1063-4972-8b95-a91a50bc6ceb","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第16章　InnolightとEoptolinkの規模","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a0ac68b4-7f65-4007-9124-7a8f55dbd9f1","kind":"paragraph","order":314,"section_id":"sec_1ab4286e-1063-4972-8b95-a91a50bc6ceb","character_id":null,"markdown":"LightCountingによる2025年光トランシーバー市場全体の売上は約238億ドルだった。 (LightCounting)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9496adbc-df6d-4e84-8735-44d1ad6e3fa0","kind":"paragraph","order":315,"section_id":"sec_1ab4286e-1063-4972-8b95-a91a50bc6ceb","character_id":null,"markdown":"その中で、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ab64a677-c7f0-42a6-97a6-cc31812dbb9f","kind":"paragraph","order":316,"section_id":"sec_1ab4286e-1063-4972-8b95-a91a50bc6ceb","character_id":null,"markdown":"Innolight：2025年約53億ドルEoptolink：約35億ドル","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8bb0eb39-b7c5-4d06-bfcc-18d71c093370","kind":"paragraph","order":317,"section_id":"sec_1ab4286e-1063-4972-8b95-a91a50bc6ceb","character_id":null,"markdown":"まで成長したとLightCountingは推計・集計している。Eoptolinkは2025年にCoherentを抜き、トランシーバー専業ランキング2位へ上がった。 (LightCounting)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5615ac93-eb1e-4770-8bc8-23c755730da4","kind":"paragraph","order":318,"section_id":"sec_1ab4286e-1063-4972-8b95-a91a50bc6ceb","character_id":null,"markdown":"Innolightは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d1770e47-78f5-4cbf-a9ed-324841cfa8a8","kind":"paragraph","order":319,"section_id":"sec_1ab4286e-1063-4972-8b95-a91a50bc6ceb","character_id":null,"markdown":"Suzhou","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ffae2839-9e5b-44ea-a617-84fc1f3795b1","kind":"paragraph","order":320,"section_id":"sec_1ab4286e-1063-4972-8b95-a91a50bc6ceb","character_id":null,"markdown":"Taiwan","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1dcd4912-a046-4d3d-a890-2ee534a83d69","kind":"paragraph","order":321,"section_id":"sec_1ab4286e-1063-4972-8b95-a91a50bc6ceb","character_id":null,"markdown":"Thailand","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4bb12055-480d-4b3e-88b6-8c976bb7694f","kind":"paragraph","order":322,"section_id":"sec_1ab4286e-1063-4972-8b95-a91a50bc6ceb","character_id":null,"markdown":"に生産拠点を持つ。 (Tower Semiconductor)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb8a3073-9e09-45b4-9c77-a2f57d57f5b4","kind":"paragraph","order":323,"section_id":"sec_1ab4286e-1063-4972-8b95-a91a50bc6ceb","character_id":null,"markdown":"SiPhではTower PH18Mを利用した400G/800G製品を既に量産している。つまりInnolightがSiPh製品を設計しても、ウェハそのものはTowerのようなファウンドリへ委託できる。 (Tower Semiconductor)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a984d495-d979-4ee2-986e-d98ae895574c","kind":"paragraph","order":324,"section_id":"sec_1ab4286e-1063-4972-8b95-a91a50bc6ceb","character_id":null,"markdown":"Eoptolinkも完成モジュールメーカーだが、自社で大規模なTO packaging/test lineを保有し、TOSA、ROSA、BOSAなどの光サブアセンブリを製造している。 (Eoptolink)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_83972753-7697-4341-82e8-ea44813c65a5","kind":"paragraph","order":325,"section_id":"sec_1ab4286e-1063-4972-8b95-a91a50bc6ceb","character_id":null,"markdown":"また800G世代では「in-house PIC」を使ったSiPh製品を公表している。ただしこれはPIC設計/IPの内製を示すもので、SiPhウェハ前工程まで自社Fabで製造していることを意味するものではない。 (Eoptolink)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_04651d5f-37c9-40b6-8909-95f50078796e","kind":"heading","order":326,"section_id":"sec_cbde7837-2911-4d5b-abf9-ffd6ed1c443a","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜InnolightとEoptolinkの規模・内製度","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_83473c7c-aa64-4e65-86e9-4c7bde0386c6","kind":"figure","order":327,"section_id":"sec_cbde7837-2911-4d5b-abf9-ffd6ed1c443a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InnolightとEoptolinkの規模・内製度 01](/media/93cf6277ac6e8dc6f9d49f0bc881972bc3a38cb2262b09f77ab0811880886779-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b3d7d8c-5487-40a2-a010-d3804a48aca0","kind":"figure","order":328,"section_id":"sec_cbde7837-2911-4d5b-abf9-ffd6ed1c443a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InnolightとEoptolinkの規模・内製度 02](/media/a243436623230e7df4c284455079ee3fa876f25dbc518528338870e2f2ffacc4-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_07d3d4e9-f123-4122-98b1-1ac14264f8a2","kind":"figure","order":329,"section_id":"sec_cbde7837-2911-4d5b-abf9-ffd6ed1c443a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InnolightとEoptolinkの規模・内製度 03](/media/d0dba95e0365e299230e0f980552016cccbf4905277a8d59e482329a35804803-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1753ab27-71a7-41dd-ad6e-7e2a1411f64d","kind":"heading","order":330,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第17章　1個の1.6Tは実際にはこう世界を移動する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f72e8807-33f1-41e9-a112-320f60f2f9a2","kind":"paragraph","order":331,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"代表的なSiPh型1.6Tを、企業別に一本のサプライチェーンとして表す。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_79057ea5-33bd-4d01-9ba0-e18eda3efd21","kind":"paragraph","order":332,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"厳密には直列ではなく、複数の部品が並列で製造され最後に合流する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d1abc133-f623-4277-a1f1-7887f2d2560d","kind":"paragraph","order":333,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"【電子系】","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_25ec7b8b-a108-443d-a451-5f654d63b9fb","kind":"paragraph","order":334,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"USA\nMarvell / Broadcom\nDSP / Driver / TIA 設計\n          │\n          ▼\nTaiwan\nTSMCなど\n3nm CMOS wafer fab\n          │\n          ▼\nDSP / Electrical IC die\n          │\n          │\n          │\n          ├─────────────────────┐\n          │                     │","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c840416f-b53b-4815-bc77-0dfb381791fa","kind":"paragraph","order":335,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"【SiPh系】","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a615544e-194d-4dc2-b119-00993dd7cd80","kind":"paragraph","order":336,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"USA / Israel / Japan\nTower\nまたは\nUSA / Singapore\nGlobalFoundries\n          │\n          ▼\nSiPh wafer\n          │\n          ▼\nPIC die\n          │\n          │\n          ├─────────────────────┤","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dfa569d1-9804-4dce-add0-cecf2e9ee2ab","kind":"paragraph","order":337,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"【光源系】","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e2a16e8f-a9f9-4b4e-9b2e-6be2f907c9e4","kind":"paragraph","order":338,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"USA / Sweden\nCoherent","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_138b8dd5-6589-4a0e-979e-e6d8bce56542","kind":"paragraph","order":339,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"USA / UK / Japan\nLumentum","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e14a4940-ff20-48f2-9d48-60d9fe46ce31","kind":"paragraph","order":340,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"Japan\nSumitomo Electric\n          │\n          ▼\nInP CW Laser\n          │\n          │\n          └─────────────────────┤\n                                │\n                                ▼","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0b4c5d81-574c-4725-9b4a-05c57a8550b5","kind":"paragraph","order":341,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"【Optical Packaging】","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0717e475-c7a3-49b4-bd9e-5f40d9640075","kind":"paragraph","order":342,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"China\nInnolight / Eoptolink","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_53dfd7f9-cef0-4fc0-8220-1bacee3707be","kind":"paragraph","order":343,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"または","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e98ccee4-afbe-4112-bc86-742920f3e7ce","kind":"paragraph","order":344,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"Thailand\nFabrinet","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f8107969-fead-4242-880d-166ae15bf9fd","kind":"paragraph","order":345,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"または","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2fdbc5a0-d829-4920-960e-f7831fa283af","kind":"paragraph","order":346,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coherent自社\n          │\n          ▼","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_94ab8d31-2d2c-48bf-9bb1-18c2e09596ef","kind":"paragraph","order":347,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"DSP attach\nTIA / Driver attach\nPIC attach\nLaser attach\nFiber attach\nActive alignment\nThermal management\nOptical test\nBurn-in\nPCB assembly\nOSFP assembly\n          │\n          ▼","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0dc85534-04b7-4aa4-8d1d-b3c24316bd8d","kind":"paragraph","order":348,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"1.6T","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1805116d-933c-48b6-a022-41641c20277e","kind":"paragraph","order":349,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"これが現代の光トランシーバーである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c1561f4f-5310-4c2e-8060-c131d7228752","kind":"paragraph","order":350,"section_id":"sec_a0efa779-706c-4ce7-af7b-d40cd8cf655c","character_id":null,"markdown":"「中国製」「米国製」「台湾製」という一国だけの概念では説明できない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6dfe8ee2-4337-49ad-a3de-43de1ec0ce2e","kind":"heading","order":351,"section_id":"sec_385083d2-29c2-4f51-adb1-bc4dea2c76ce","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜世界分業で作る1.6T Module","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d54fb3ee-93a5-4854-8ea7-e09c3878dbc8","kind":"figure","order":352,"section_id":"sec_385083d2-29c2-4f51-adb1-bc4dea2c76ce","character_id":null,"markdown":"![世界分業で作る1.6T Module 01](/media/c6780ccfd908a04b3694eb7c185ea8f89c8159c3a19b1df1739f47ec8e0ac867-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b8f227e1-46c4-4874-873c-eac3cef55fae","kind":"figure","order":353,"section_id":"sec_385083d2-29c2-4f51-adb1-bc4dea2c76ce","character_id":null,"markdown":"![世界分業で作る1.6T Module 02](/media/8dc163846f38393c5b779e3e3c7a406bb5f7f6e749bb367acb9beecc9afcd6a7-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1ff7efec-ce3e-4f3e-8391-011488a620cb","kind":"figure","order":354,"section_id":"sec_385083d2-29c2-4f51-adb1-bc4dea2c76ce","character_id":null,"markdown":"![世界分業で作る1.6T Module 03](/media/d5ad4c5adc3659f47f7764bb1b9bfb9b075f48042a2e2f21a30a80340cc71207-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9d667d64-23b7-4af2-8f9d-85c808384771","kind":"heading","order":355,"section_id":"sec_bc95bb4f-d842-4d84-831a-6874e70c2129","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第18章　Optical Packaging――光通信で最も過小評価されている工程","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6cfc8591-d96d-4888-b9fa-7a6dc67483f7","kind":"paragraph","order":356,"section_id":"sec_bc95bb4f-d842-4d84-831a-6874e70c2129","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical Packagingは単なる半導体後工程ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b4c6e03e-56d0-4c27-86a7-7d859c3940f3","kind":"paragraph","order":357,"section_id":"sec_bc95bb4f-d842-4d84-831a-6874e70c2129","character_id":null,"markdown":"普通のICパッケージなら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ce759fea-6883-4480-b3b3-6d947d2b203b","kind":"paragraph","order":358,"section_id":"sec_bc95bb4f-d842-4d84-831a-6874e70c2129","character_id":null,"markdown":"Die\n ↓\nBump / Wire\n ↓\nSubstrate\n ↓\nPCB","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_48feaf6e-879f-4cee-827b-f84cb2d6bd73","kind":"paragraph","order":359,"section_id":"sec_bc95bb4f-d842-4d84-831a-6874e70c2129","character_id":null,"markdown":"で主に電気接続を成立させればよい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8fd371a4-c1df-4c77-8c13-b98daf62852e","kind":"paragraph","order":360,"section_id":"sec_bc95bb4f-d842-4d84-831a-6874e70c2129","character_id":null,"markdown":"光ではさらに、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_667ca067-464e-46c6-8d5a-e74ad9d8c194","kind":"paragraph","order":361,"section_id":"sec_bc95bb4f-d842-4d84-831a-6874e70c2129","character_id":null,"markdown":"Laser\n ↓\nPIC waveguide\n ↓\nCoupler\n ↓\nFiber","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a39fbc87-fb8c-4a3f-aa14-2c1f07d1e052","kind":"paragraph","order":362,"section_id":"sec_bc95bb4f-d842-4d84-831a-6874e70c2129","character_id":null,"markdown":"の位置を正確に合わせなければならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a2084700-0ff1-4dce-b2f5-d43dc4ffbdf6","kind":"paragraph","order":363,"section_id":"sec_bc95bb4f-d842-4d84-831a-6874e70c2129","character_id":null,"markdown":"光軸が数μmずれただけで挿入損失が大きく変わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c4cf4da2-ff71-4be9-a774-b6d50ef001f6","kind":"paragraph","order":364,"section_id":"sec_bc95bb4f-d842-4d84-831a-6874e70c2129","character_id":null,"markdown":"Fabrinetは5軸Active Alignmentでsub-micron level toleranceを扱っている。 (Fabrinet)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1461691c-6428-4fc2-9cc4-dd107c586396","kind":"heading","order":365,"section_id":"sec_678c2de0-6a6e-46bf-92f5-79755c991460","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜光結合とActive Alignment","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad43e9c1-ed28-4583-bd5f-60358aebf321","kind":"figure","order":366,"section_id":"sec_678c2de0-6a6e-46bf-92f5-79755c991460","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光結合とActive Alignment 01](/media/c623182f57c9528b7c860dd8e0454a589fe5148f9e12879b3feaf675414d3d3c-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b68ce8f2-a90b-40b4-b508-dd1cc4156c8e","kind":"figure","order":367,"section_id":"sec_678c2de0-6a6e-46bf-92f5-79755c991460","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光結合とActive Alignment 02](/media/a6543d58865fdc5c08626f968313e8d774ef79c11ba52cf4d547da280bfe727d-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9018ac56-6c0d-442b-9d44-fc53b8e96a10","kind":"figure","order":368,"section_id":"sec_678c2de0-6a6e-46bf-92f5-79755c991460","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光結合とActive Alignment 03](/media/eb790f0c59d7ed3421a93cf8b84c9200b6b61913135945a28ed055894179555e-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ffa427ab-089a-4ec4-8740-4be2d2982be3","kind":"figure","order":369,"section_id":"sec_678c2de0-6a6e-46bf-92f5-79755c991460","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光結合とActive Alignment 04](/media/5e9d5850fec9009203c09a4b2a94690bb22d9a2890df430288d2bfa9624161f9-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8f68063-7627-470c-8c9a-e5e1f626295d","kind":"heading","order":370,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第19章　Optical Packagingの全工程","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15b1e28b-6d54-40a9-ac64-7fcaa3d74089","kind":"paragraph","order":371,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"代表的工程は次のようになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3b112744-8528-4821-82c1-1ee40cbbc53d","kind":"paragraph","order":372,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"① Known Good Die選別","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d0e092d0-43f6-4e0b-abdd-12a2ba324d7e","kind":"paragraph","order":373,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"DSP、TIA、PIC、Laserなどをウェハテストし、不良ダイを事前に排除する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1aa85c41-e191-455a-9bbe-30e8e4c2fb3e","kind":"paragraph","order":374,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"高価な良品PICへ不良レーザーを実装してから捨てると、モジュール全体の歩留まりが急落するからだ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_02e0ac1d-8e7e-4784-bac7-105c94a2e8cb","kind":"paragraph","order":375,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"② Die Attach","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e798c7c-6448-4eb4-9ef4-1a8396e303ab","kind":"paragraph","order":376,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"PIC、DSP、TIA、DriverなどをSubstrateやCarrierへ固定する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af2309f7-e295-4c7f-969a-5856bbf34341","kind":"paragraph","order":377,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Epoxy attach","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_48e8e96a-18b5-456f-a509-32d3a1b1f280","kind":"paragraph","order":378,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Solder attach","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_65b3ee9c-ee73-459b-b59b-837cd5aa3ddf","kind":"paragraph","order":379,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Eutectic bonding","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a3da0883-9f8c-422a-af58-79812b3618ad","kind":"paragraph","order":380,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Flip-chip","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eb505a79-1e63-4ec7-96b2-a209fc721bbe","kind":"paragraph","order":381,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"などを使う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_048b66b8-4416-462b-8a48-411c4174792f","kind":"paragraph","order":382,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Fabrinetはdie attach、eutectic soldering、wire bonding、flip-chip、multi-chip moduleまで自社工程として提供している。 (Fabrinet)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ce10bdf-f23d-4bc9-84a8-810430feabc9","kind":"paragraph","order":383,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"③ Electrical Interconnect","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_18cf47b8-c6dc-41e7-be03-0a177125d9a4","kind":"paragraph","order":384,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"DSP ↔ Driver ↔ PIC\nPD ↔ TIA ↔ DSP","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c13c0f43-c9be-4380-a1b1-69faaaf8294f","kind":"paragraph","order":385,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"を、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f6a958b-778d-4efd-8460-342f397f58bd","kind":"paragraph","order":386,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Wire bond","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_39f05221-5ed1-42d9-868d-6bd39ef1064e","kind":"paragraph","order":387,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Flip chip","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_04e6995c-9793-4497-b66a-470a0a34524b","kind":"paragraph","order":388,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Micro bump","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_440bc711-ba31-4a2f-b100-e3d5233bd6f3","kind":"paragraph","order":389,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"RDL","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e1876c75-9cf2-4bb4-b25f-0becf38c83a5","kind":"paragraph","order":390,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"などで接続する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e9f9f93e-53cf-4396-805d-1244164413cc","kind":"paragraph","order":391,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"200G/laneになると配線距離そのものが性能・消費電力へ影響するため、PICとElectrical ICを近付けることが極めて重要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1b7e4d86-bb08-4d8b-ab58-8b963887e34d","kind":"paragraph","order":392,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"④ Laser Attach","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cdba2e96-1f89-4067-8a12-d7a53a61f93d","kind":"paragraph","order":393,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP CW LaserをCarrierまたはPIC近傍へ固定する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_733c6ec0-6e8e-490c-8460-b2e970bd6907","kind":"paragraph","order":394,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"同時に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a930428e-2e9a-4b55-882a-5c7e3a025fd7","kind":"paragraph","order":395,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"光結合電気供給放熱","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_586a375d-9307-4973-913a-26e675a73f51","kind":"paragraph","order":396,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"の三つを成立させなければならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c6d528f3-75e4-4212-a04f-9c2e2d29567d","kind":"paragraph","order":397,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"⑤ Fiber Attach","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f1fe0f3-a166-4b99-9bc7-00360000df13","kind":"paragraph","order":398,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"PICのEdge CouplerやGrating CouplerへFiber Arrayを接続する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dfc8b8ba-ff8d-46d2-bfd8-9cf65aec1bf8","kind":"paragraph","order":399,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここが光実装の難所の一つである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21a61d37-1b63-4b4a-aeee-997eb853922d","kind":"paragraph","order":400,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"⑥ Passive Alignment","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_26911c82-8179-47f1-add1-b1f8c3bafc78","kind":"paragraph","order":401,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"V-groove、Mechanical stop、alignment markなどを使い、機械的基準だけで位置合わせする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ebd830cd-0500-4de2-8606-8a7158a38509","kind":"paragraph","order":402,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"高速・低コスト・量産向きである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6aeb359c-5eff-476c-ab39-2376eadc9467","kind":"paragraph","order":403,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"⑦ Active Alignment","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ba359bd-3734-45d2-aee7-9798c6d8b211","kind":"paragraph","order":404,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際にレーザーを発光させ、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4516db17-a76b-467f-9dfb-b9f970a05038","kind":"paragraph","order":405,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"FiberをX方向へ移動\n ↓\n光量測定","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_382ec31c-6a2d-4265-a593-857fce370962","kind":"paragraph","order":406,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Y方向\n ↓\n光量測定","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af80d289-9024-483b-9e1f-b51e450cf661","kind":"paragraph","order":407,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Z方向\n ↓\n光量測定","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ddabfdb8-22cd-43fb-a105-784352d855ab","kind":"paragraph","order":408,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"角度変更\n ↓\n光量測定","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19d88b61-8da5-4a4a-8ff0-a1b958a9a78f","kind":"paragraph","order":409,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"最大結合位置\n ↓\n接着・固定","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9cc508d5-94d0-46d4-b664-c8120e73b906","kind":"paragraph","order":410,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6aaa559d-af43-4094-bdd6-ccd4876087c6","kind":"paragraph","order":411,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Fabrinetが得意とする代表工程である。 (Fabrinet)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eccc6e1a-5850-41b3-bfae-f80546b8e001","kind":"paragraph","order":412,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"⑧ Adhesive Cure / Fixation","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ca33dace-dd20-4af9-b582-4bd11ff4bb78","kind":"paragraph","order":413,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"最適位置を見つけても、Epoxy硬化で収縮して位置が変われば意味がない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_183592d4-ad0d-4805-98cb-1f2ec95d8dc2","kind":"paragraph","order":414,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9ade498f-24c5-4087-b436-27a3d313de50","kind":"paragraph","order":415,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"接着剤","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5ca6739-131d-4079-a27b-ab711a2ec040","kind":"paragraph","order":416,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"UV Cure","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5f412bce-ed5d-4e2c-90d0-145fe8f4f8b1","kind":"paragraph","order":417,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Thermal cure","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_917248a2-71b6-4a53-b377-84213f9aa59d","kind":"paragraph","order":418,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Solder","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a67c6109-34b8-40e7-a07b-e84aab39ed25","kind":"paragraph","order":419,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Mechanical fixture","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a22a7674-5bba-4911-a27d-dade56c319d7","kind":"paragraph","order":420,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"まで含めた工程設計が必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_223ef3bb-0d92-4ead-968c-b7c952be4da3","kind":"paragraph","order":421,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"⑨ Thermal Packaging","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9444f966-a431-4931-ac37-4cf734add151","kind":"paragraph","order":422,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザーとDSPは発熱する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a4a3309c-fbe6-46d5-95d2-b1f0d6bd9f9c","kind":"paragraph","order":423,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Laser ──→ Heat spreader\nDSP   ──→ Heat sink\nPIC   ──→ Package","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c1ab3cbd-cf43-4544-a1c9-7111942f1257","kind":"paragraph","order":424,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"と熱経路を作る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9e6719a-6ba7-4023-8ffa-29a9065194db","kind":"paragraph","order":425,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"⑩ Optical / Electrical Test","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21d13e0d-ab76-4317-9965-1024fcb93171","kind":"paragraph","order":426,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical Output 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Burn-in","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c2a17c8-b5b9-4fe7-9fc2-a7c6a0a1247d","kind":"paragraph","order":435,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザーは初期不良・寿命特性が重要なので、Burn-inや温度試験などを行う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b96bac23-ec66-4bf6-8de7-e7a99bc8d7ac","kind":"paragraph","order":436,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"⑫ Final Module Assembly","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_31d13645-4fa2-48ba-a0ad-8900d9fd117c","kind":"paragraph","order":437,"section_id":"sec_26c184ee-309e-4e2e-9fee-0d3bf8b345b2","character_id":null,"markdown":"PCB、OSFP housing、connector、heat sinkまで組み上げて完成する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b7af4871-657c-436c-933a-2cd0ad62497a","kind":"heading","order":438,"section_id":"sec_06c6cbf9-3456-4455-b3f4-e34a53360269","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Known Good DieからFinal 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○","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f3834c8-3acd-4abf-9623-71e05ac612b3","kind":"paragraph","order":449,"section_id":"sec_e81b7e0f-f25f-402a-adca-b9203437560a","character_id":null,"markdown":"一括加工","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_95bab264-4dab-4ff3-be73-0ca0125b26bf","kind":"paragraph","order":450,"section_id":"sec_e81b7e0f-f25f-402a-adca-b9203437560a","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方、Optical Packagingでは最終的に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_868ecdca-02ca-45a4-9f9f-e890ab54dcd7","kind":"paragraph","order":451,"section_id":"sec_e81b7e0f-f25f-402a-adca-b9203437560a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Laser 1個\nPIC 1個\nFiber Array 1個\nDSP 1個","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6bacd12e-c5d6-411e-84f9-8e25180d6987","kind":"paragraph","order":452,"section_id":"sec_e81b7e0f-f25f-402a-adca-b9203437560a","character_id":null,"markdown":"を物理的に組み合わせる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b1cefd5c-44cb-4f51-8012-1c101c500c77","kind":"paragraph","order":453,"section_id":"sec_e81b7e0f-f25f-402a-adca-b9203437560a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Active Alignmentでは、各モジュールについて実際の光量を確認しながら調整する場合もある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a7705a95-08da-4183-8f43-fc689ed95558","kind":"paragraph","order":454,"section_id":"sec_e81b7e0f-f25f-402a-adca-b9203437560a","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5154cc50-4e12-42ba-b803-9057ec353616","kind":"paragraph","order":455,"section_id":"sec_e81b7e0f-f25f-402a-adca-b9203437560a","character_id":null,"markdown":"SiPhウェハ能力を2倍にしても、光実装ラインを2倍にしなければ完成モジュールは2倍にならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6426cd94-8756-4fa8-8f5e-be359c82baf9","kind":"paragraph","order":456,"section_id":"sec_e81b7e0f-f25f-402a-adca-b9203437560a","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI光通信で前工程だけ見てはいけない最大の理由である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_510bdb29-b7a4-4137-af2e-409007ebebf3","kind":"heading","order":457,"section_id":"sec_d372a83e-16b0-484f-9a3a-1843988bdeb8","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜逐次組立と量産タクト","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43910843-007b-4226-b16b-92fe70ef13e6","kind":"figure","order":458,"section_id":"sec_d372a83e-16b0-484f-9a3a-1843988bdeb8","character_id":null,"markdown":"![逐次組立と量産タクト 01](/media/a96d45216273e1815a742879d17edac48ccc514b00b3c8da50c94c634a675729-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bae7ab70-367d-4260-8a45-1124b6e9ca16","kind":"figure","order":459,"section_id":"sec_d372a83e-16b0-484f-9a3a-1843988bdeb8","character_id":null,"markdown":"![逐次組立と量産タクト 02](/media/7a2961e72666a0d485dff5409c804f61e2f5ac397acd882b401569a7c8bb475b-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_05f5aa75-86df-46f1-8ebd-20b50e1702fd","kind":"figure","order":460,"section_id":"sec_d372a83e-16b0-484f-9a3a-1843988bdeb8","character_id":null,"markdown":"![逐次組立と量産タクト 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packaging","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66f81904-be41-4ed7-a11d-6a47f2ba2cfc","kind":"paragraph","order":465,"section_id":"sec_17ddbc9c-5d72-4349-8520-e8623082b495","character_id":null,"markdown":"Lens","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5dff35c4-98e0-4d3e-9a09-5d33f8ad972d","kind":"paragraph","order":466,"section_id":"sec_17ddbc9c-5d72-4349-8520-e8623082b495","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coating","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_44f7f40a-b20a-4147-9465-cd3c8eeeae7b","kind":"paragraph","order":467,"section_id":"sec_17ddbc9c-5d72-4349-8520-e8623082b495","character_id":null,"markdown":"Die attach","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cdf39b71-8f2f-429a-a427-3c6e659b506e","kind":"paragraph","order":468,"section_id":"sec_17ddbc9c-5d72-4349-8520-e8623082b495","character_id":null,"markdown":"Wire bonding","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8b30e81-1d55-4305-8a04-b7159c15ef5c","kind":"paragraph","order":469,"section_id":"sec_17ddbc9c-5d72-4349-8520-e8623082b495","character_id":null,"markdown":"Flip-chip","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_111830d3-eb18-47dd-a8d7-315372fe64df","kind":"paragraph","order":470,"section_id":"sec_17ddbc9c-5d72-4349-8520-e8623082b495","character_id":null,"markdown":"Passive alignment","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5acb13dd-8631-430a-814e-e8822310a0c8","kind":"paragraph","order":471,"section_id":"sec_17ddbc9c-5d72-4349-8520-e8623082b495","character_id":null,"markdown":"Active alignment","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8aab5396-095c-4fb2-86a6-53ff0f67c1da","kind":"paragraph","order":472,"section_id":"sec_17ddbc9c-5d72-4349-8520-e8623082b495","character_id":null,"markdown":"PCBA","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_44afef8d-97fe-4124-939e-1616948b4f03","kind":"paragraph","order":473,"section_id":"sec_17ddbc9c-5d72-4349-8520-e8623082b495","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical test","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_09866bb7-5507-42e6-b3a5-0ad9567b94c8","kind":"paragraph","order":474,"section_id":"sec_17ddbc9c-5d72-4349-8520-e8623082b495","character_id":null,"markdown":"Final assembly","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_efcfbfef-2c3f-4757-9f0f-0020bb3df3d4","kind":"paragraph","order":475,"section_id":"sec_17ddbc9c-5d72-4349-8520-e8623082b495","character_id":null,"markdown":"までを顧客向けに受託する。 (Fabrinet)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f96d62d4-21e5-406c-9b11-6ba1b6384cba","kind":"paragraph","order":476,"section_id":"sec_17ddbc9c-5d72-4349-8520-e8623082b495","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_930f98b1-b111-44a1-bbf2-b77d44bb6275","kind":"paragraph","order":477,"section_id":"sec_17ddbc9c-5d72-4349-8520-e8623082b495","character_id":null,"markdown":"部品は顧客が設計する。Fabrinetはそれを量産可能な光製品へ仕上げる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_be762aaf-b4a4-4003-a6e3-a1b720d9c99a","kind":"paragraph","order":478,"section_id":"sec_17ddbc9c-5d72-4349-8520-e8623082b495","character_id":null,"markdown":"という会社である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_48dd0b33-ca08-4aaf-879a-47a6e0cc76e6","kind":"paragraph","order":479,"section_id":"sec_17ddbc9c-5d72-4349-8520-e8623082b495","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年3月四半期のOptical Communications売上は8.887億ドルで、全売上の73.2%を占めた。 (SEC)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66be6d15-af9e-4ca7-b42f-698ded352b82","kind":"paragraph","order":480,"section_id":"sec_17ddbc9c-5d72-4349-8520-e8623082b495","character_id":null,"markdown":"2024年時点の施設面積は約370万平方フィート、そのうち約320万平方フィートがThailandにあった。さらにChonburi campusで約200万平方フィートの新工場を建設中である。 (Fabrinet)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c40e8fde-51fc-4717-9075-1f54bb9b27d8","kind":"paragraph","order":481,"section_id":"sec_17ddbc9c-5d72-4349-8520-e8623082b495","character_id":null,"markdown":"Fabrinetの強みは「ウェハ」ではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5135d693-41f9-4bda-96a8-336630de56c0","kind":"paragraph","order":482,"section_id":"sec_17ddbc9c-5d72-4349-8520-e8623082b495","character_id":null,"markdown":"熟練した光実装工程を巨大な量産能力へ変換したこと","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93efdcb4-fa10-403a-b694-0194a70be329","kind":"paragraph","order":483,"section_id":"sec_17ddbc9c-5d72-4349-8520-e8623082b495","character_id":null,"markdown":"にある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fe7eb43d-0b3c-4bd4-8a28-5f91ff852299","kind":"heading","order":484,"section_id":"sec_ef960685-318a-4774-952e-e15aa5404ddd","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Fabrinetの量産光実装","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bdd40c69-84e2-4641-b851-288c338936e3","kind":"figure","order":485,"section_id":"sec_ef960685-318a-4774-952e-e15aa5404ddd","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Fabrinetの量産光実装 01](/media/f74093d4799b81c1efe9895f720bf2f8b40a03b1399103797d8533c06f216bf3-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2128dc3e-e57c-4ac8-a477-5d376e804db9","kind":"figure","order":486,"section_id":"sec_ef960685-318a-4774-952e-e15aa5404ddd","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Fabrinetの量産光実装 02](/media/e62288b0dc108dc7f7019231795eb56f10d9c404c86cd6b98bbba010a94b1f7c-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_65d36af2-e2eb-45b2-b27f-f4ef60a45384","kind":"figure","order":487,"section_id":"sec_ef960685-318a-4774-952e-e15aa5404ddd","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Fabrinetの量産光実装 03](/media/10212b6027adb260680241fbd92ba00c0db838a06279160a9683fddeb6b33429-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_554990a3-1949-4126-9c36-9e49f89a162c","kind":"heading","order":488,"section_id":"sec_4c108f3f-fe43-4135-a2e0-924a875a7bc8","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第22章　Fabrinet、Innolight、Eoptolink、Coherent、ASE、Amkorを比較する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8caedcc-3c1f-4f34-ab61-fb0ebedd9b04","kind":"paragraph","order":489,"section_id":"sec_4c108f3f-fe43-4135-a2e0-924a875a7bc8","character_id":null,"markdown":"公開情報だけから整理すると次のようになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c96ccbeb-0f3b-471c-a785-b88c6643dc5a","kind":"paragraph","order":490,"section_id":"sec_4c108f3f-fe43-4135-a2e0-924a875a7bc8","character_id":null,"markdown":"「○」は明確な自社能力、「△」は製品・案件ごとに変わる、または詳細非開示を示す。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c2252d18-5178-471f-833e-1da886d02aaa","kind":"math","order":491,"section_id":"sec_4c108f3f-fe43-4135-a2e0-924a875a7bc8","character_id":null,"markdown":"$$\\begin{array}{|l|c|c|c|c|c|c|}\\text{工程}&\\text{Fabrinet}&\\text{Innolight}&\\text{Eoptolink}&\\text{Coherent}&\\text{ASE}&\\text{Amkor} \\\\ \\hline\\text{Module設計}&\\triangle\\text{顧客}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\times&\\times \\\\ \\hline\\text{DSP設計}&\\times&\\text{外部}&\\text{外部}&\\text{一部/外部}&\\times&\\times \\\\ \\hline\\text{CMOS wafer fab}&\\times&\\times&\\times&\\text{外部中心}&\\times&\\times \\\\ \\hline\\text{SiPh設計}&\\text{顧客}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\text{顧客}&\\text{顧客} \\\\ \\hline\\text{SiPh wafer fab}&\\times&\\text{Tower等}&\\text{外部}&\\text{◎/内製基盤}&\\times&\\times \\\\ \\hline\\text{InP Laser}&\\times&\\text{外部中心}&\\text{外部中心}&\\bigcirc&\\times&\\times \\\\ \\hline\\text{Laser packaging}&\\bigcirc&\\text{○/非開示}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\triangle\\text{ CPO}&\\triangle\\text{案件} \\\\ \\hline\\text{Die attach}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc \\\\ \\hline\\text{Flip-chip}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc \\\\ \\hline\\text{Fiber attach}&\\bigcirc&\\text{○/非開示}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\text{◎ CPO}&\\text{案件依存} \\\\ \\hline\\text{Active alignment}&\\bigcirc&\\text{非開示}&\\text{非開示}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\text{詳細非開示} \\\\ \\hline\\text{Optical Engine}&\\text{◎受託}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\text{◎ CPO}&\\text{◎ Photonic 3D} \\\\ \\hline\\text{PCB/Module assembly}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\triangle&\\triangle \\\\ \\hline\\text{Optical test}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc \\\\ \\hline\\text{CPO package}&\\triangle&\\text{開発}&\\text{開発}&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc&\\bigcirc \\\\ \\hline\\end{array}$$","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_06f9e0c7-adc9-4141-a3ff-a2833fd341a5","kind":"paragraph","order":492,"section_id":"sec_4c108f3f-fe43-4135-a2e0-924a875a7bc8","character_id":null,"markdown":"InnolightについてはTower PH18を利用したSiPh製品が公表されているため、「PIC設計・製品設計はInnolight、ウェハ製造はTower」という明確な分業例がある。 (Tower Semiconductor)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b9314532-ef28-458f-bf33-b5955d6946fd","kind":"paragraph","order":493,"section_id":"sec_4c108f3f-fe43-4135-a2e0-924a875a7bc8","character_id":null,"markdown":"Eoptolinkは中国でも大規模なautomatic TO packaging/testingラインを持ち、BOSA/ROSA/TOSAなどを内製する。 (Eoptolink)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3f38178-33e0-47cd-80ca-a6f1a63bff49","kind":"paragraph","order":494,"section_id":"sec_4c108f3f-fe43-4135-a2e0-924a875a7bc8","character_id":null,"markdown":"CoherentはSiPh、VCSEL、EML、CW Laser、passive optics、advanced optical assembliesまで垂直統合している。 (Coherent Inc)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_081d7523-9401-448f-b873-2a50192a0854","kind":"paragraph","order":495,"section_id":"sec_4c108f3f-fe43-4135-a2e0-924a875a7bc8","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただし各企業が特定の1.6T SKUについて「Laserをどこから何%購入しているか」「Fiber attachの何割を外注しているか」までは通常公開しないため、工程別の外注比率まで断定することはできない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_51da7b76-1827-461f-8909-d7599c3d2fda","kind":"heading","order":496,"section_id":"sec_913e5ebb-f8bb-4c93-a98f-0612575efa43","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜光Supply Chain六社比較","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1dc6c8b3-e9cf-4d99-87f8-7e27206c6304","kind":"figure","order":497,"section_id":"sec_913e5ebb-f8bb-4c93-a98f-0612575efa43","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光Supply Chain六社比較 01](/media/58fd7dff1eedb50e0a7f9215375be6696bdc13ce336237601f593d4159f951de-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_90817c11-18ca-42c3-b8db-ce0aad07f966","kind":"heading","order":498,"section_id":"sec_badee867-0d68-4713-9593-4e4950bf76b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第23章　ASE――CPO時代になると半導体OSATが光へ入ってくる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bf4089b9-3a7b-40a7-b9a9-8dd5c511f034","kind":"paragraph","order":499,"section_id":"sec_badee867-0d68-4713-9593-4e4950bf76b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のpluggable opticsでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_58c747ac-ff42-4a2b-840e-fc2095468533","kind":"paragraph","order":500,"section_id":"sec_badee867-0d68-4713-9593-4e4950bf76b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"Switch ASIC\n    │\n   PCB\n    │\nOSFP Transceiver","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e631899a-460f-4beb-a3b7-751af0e39ff0","kind":"paragraph","order":501,"section_id":"sec_badee867-0d68-4713-9593-4e4950bf76b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9788efe8-2b91-4a31-af74-39f10d623923","kind":"paragraph","order":502,"section_id":"sec_badee867-0d68-4713-9593-4e4950bf76b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしCPOでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0513b577-e831-48df-b2b0-a93353bfde07","kind":"paragraph","order":503,"section_id":"sec_badee867-0d68-4713-9593-4e4950bf76b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"┌──────────────────────┐\n│     Switch ASIC      │\n│                      │\n│ OE   OE   OE   OE    │\n│ │    │    │    │     │\n└─┼────┼────┼────┼─────┘\n  Fiber Fiber Fiber","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dbbdcb78-ad3a-4fdc-bbe2-b924a433055d","kind":"paragraph","order":504,"section_id":"sec_badee867-0d68-4713-9593-4e4950bf76b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a8f0ac73-abf8-4267-b913-de05d919999e","kind":"paragraph","order":505,"section_id":"sec_badee867-0d68-4713-9593-4e4950bf76b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここでは光実装とAdvanced Semiconductor Packagingの境界が消える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_65ee6d4c-7bc0-43b6-b145-ec7d73a00814","kind":"paragraph","order":506,"section_id":"sec_badee867-0d68-4713-9593-4e4950bf76b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"ASEは既に、複数Optical EngineとASICを75mm×75mm超の大型パッケージへ統合したCPOを実演している。ASEによればCPOでは5pJ/bit未満まで電力を下げられる。 (ASE Global)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e724e085-bb38-420c-a992-2b33b0babdee","kind":"paragraph","order":507,"section_id":"sec_badee867-0d68-4713-9593-4e4950bf76b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらにASEはPIC、controller IC、laser、optics、Fiber Array Unitを統合する構造を開発している。 (ASE Global)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e3bf6f7-59d6-4a5f-9d43-d66acd3edd22","kind":"paragraph","order":508,"section_id":"sec_badee867-0d68-4713-9593-4e4950bf76b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりASEは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_95899630-5c07-4843-960d-c5a8212d2e22","kind":"paragraph","order":509,"section_id":"sec_badee867-0d68-4713-9593-4e4950bf76b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来のCoWoS/2.5D/3Dパッケージ技術を、光へ拡張する企業","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_70c61480-ebd6-4b4f-b538-02f1f6eb4754","kind":"paragraph","order":510,"section_id":"sec_badee867-0d68-4713-9593-4e4950bf76b1","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c0d484ce-1102-4521-bbf7-95558c6712b9","kind":"heading","order":511,"section_id":"sec_683e59a1-8a7c-4f94-b0d5-f12892600c03","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜ASEのCPO Package","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0ac04e5-6b4e-4dcc-850d-692b8988c7bb","kind":"figure","order":512,"section_id":"sec_683e59a1-8a7c-4f94-b0d5-f12892600c03","character_id":null,"markdown":"![ASEのCPO Package 01](/media/aa7f38f5e0f50ff52c807922c788528ab46b675ae9f05b8abef58a2cbc5c5f89-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_faacbbe4-bce8-4e2a-8c04-ddd5a29f5c2d","kind":"figure","order":513,"section_id":"sec_683e59a1-8a7c-4f94-b0d5-f12892600c03","character_id":null,"markdown":"![ASEのCPO Package 02](/media/8fb9247cb5e95b1cb8aac782f34a12bb4000832911766e73d75131cc1758f284-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b040807b-3318-4499-8a52-f51feb1f0b63","kind":"figure","order":514,"section_id":"sec_683e59a1-8a7c-4f94-b0d5-f12892600c03","character_id":null,"markdown":"![ASEのCPO Package 03](/media/5b53d3f5f5c1ac769a862191fcca7c43802d2f5b15e44ee537fbaf327a71eb8a-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1dac88c5-9a1f-44fb-88cb-eaf70ff3b9ac","kind":"heading","order":515,"section_id":"sec_6a986d48-8cc0-491f-8935-8ee3f1cb33bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第24章　Amkor――3D Photonics Packagingへ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_11bece40-98ed-4bb3-b7e1-30dacf0bd90d","kind":"paragraph","order":516,"section_id":"sec_6a986d48-8cc0-491f-8935-8ee3f1cb33bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"Amkorも同じ方向へ進んでいる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bb4b179d-0ba7-43b6-be8c-cb1beaf05b50","kind":"paragraph","order":517,"section_id":"sec_6a986d48-8cc0-491f-8935-8ee3f1cb33bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"代表例がLightmatterとの協業である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_abd59dd7-53f5-4629-8f38-0007142222df","kind":"paragraph","order":518,"section_id":"sec_6a986d48-8cc0-491f-8935-8ee3f1cb33bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"LightmatterのPassageでは、Silicon Photonic Interconnectの上へCPU/GPU/XPUなど顧客ダイを3D積層する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3503b6c1-e159-46c7-aa22-2d34cae04541","kind":"paragraph","order":519,"section_id":"sec_6a986d48-8cc0-491f-8935-8ee3f1cb33bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"Amkorが担当するのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ccd3747a-bcc4-48af-97ea-62681adb7b74","kind":"paragraph","order":520,"section_id":"sec_6a986d48-8cc0-491f-8935-8ee3f1cb33bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"Multi-die integration","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_607d4eed-4043-46f8-88d0-9490db2e7899","kind":"paragraph","order":521,"section_id":"sec_6a986d48-8cc0-491f-8935-8ee3f1cb33bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"3D packaging","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e2a49bb-3b36-487b-95f7-3c51ddc3629d","kind":"paragraph","order":522,"section_id":"sec_6a986d48-8cc0-491f-8935-8ee3f1cb33bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"Bumping","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6369faaa-9e9b-41d8-954c-8245e515db3c","kind":"paragraph","order":523,"section_id":"sec_6a986d48-8cc0-491f-8935-8ee3f1cb33bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"Substrate integration","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2d99d505-7186-4fd8-8aeb-e2c2bb00429d","kind":"paragraph","order":524,"section_id":"sec_6a986d48-8cc0-491f-8935-8ee3f1cb33bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"Test","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e85801c1-9653-4373-964f-62fce82bcc44","kind":"paragraph","order":525,"section_id":"sec_6a986d48-8cc0-491f-8935-8ee3f1cb33bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"といった半導体側の高度実装である。 (Amkor Technology)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_834dae4c-103b-4d80-9670-f6e3cad5b2e8","kind":"paragraph","order":526,"section_id":"sec_6a986d48-8cc0-491f-8935-8ee3f1cb33bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5a7067be-d65b-4f13-9ae7-93fd9fab4b84","kind":"paragraph","order":527,"section_id":"sec_6a986d48-8cc0-491f-8935-8ee3f1cb33bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"Fabrinet＝光学側から半導体へ近づくASE/Amkor＝半導体側から光学へ近づく","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_df8edcf3-381d-48b6-ab9c-57532ae8afb2","kind":"paragraph","order":528,"section_id":"sec_6a986d48-8cc0-491f-8935-8ee3f1cb33bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"という構図になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_da5739e3-d8a7-43cb-8471-799dc0f6f2e4","kind":"paragraph","order":529,"section_id":"sec_6a986d48-8cc0-491f-8935-8ee3f1cb33bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPOではこの二つの産業が衝突する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93746340-80e8-44f8-a7f2-1ff909241d4c","kind":"heading","order":530,"section_id":"sec_818fe60c-3000-4183-b6b3-6615bb7ddfe8","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Amkorの3D Photonics","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3981759e-b62d-48b2-9a89-c522ec95a3a7","kind":"figure","order":531,"section_id":"sec_818fe60c-3000-4183-b6b3-6615bb7ddfe8","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Amkorの3D Photonics 01](/media/a8d786cf601548d45a830033964e5690a9db075d8c9c8ae9477b4222ea87ed67-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb8f8f84-19e3-4371-b36a-4dd3e3c8eeea","kind":"figure","order":532,"section_id":"sec_818fe60c-3000-4183-b6b3-6615bb7ddfe8","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Amkorの3D Photonics 02](/media/edca32bdf139e3f598f721f2fece1846ab477cb68bfd41e8663199bb89cb0a53-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cc9825b0-38bc-4a73-8f68-54925ef05ecd","kind":"heading","order":533,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第25章　世界の「光実装銘柄」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_490114ea-aa59-4e9e-9c19-77c9600b6446","kind":"paragraph","order":534,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical Packagingへ投資する場合、単なるトランシーバーメーカー以外にも複数の層がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6c9848c0-f07f-44e5-bd1f-69f9fdccc185","kind":"paragraph","order":535,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"① Optical EMS / Packaging","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0f6fd081-c5d9-4339-9f96-c54078c2aad5","kind":"paragraph","order":536,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"Fabrinet　NYSE: FN","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b231f662-2c9b-45bf-90a6-459a0bb35a3a","kind":"paragraph","order":537,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"最も純粋に近いOptical Manufacturing Services銘柄。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a6ab9915-39db-463d-8311-41d12a4deedf","kind":"paragraph","order":538,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"Laser packaging、active alignment、optical assembly、PCBA、final testまでを受託する。 (Fabrinet)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5ca92da-c4fb-47a3-9c6d-4e500f5a6758","kind":"paragraph","order":539,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"② 中国のOptical Packaging","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4b493a88-c32e-457e-b81e-96d9a4d2054e","kind":"paragraph","order":540,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"Zhongji Innolight　SZSE: 300308","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6c3fcde5-2572-4a29-849b-0a7b5d2753cd","kind":"paragraph","order":541,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"世界最大級の高速光モジュールメーカー。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1e84398f-367e-41b9-9ecd-83743bd53c81","kind":"paragraph","order":542,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"Module integration、SiPh product design、大量量産が中心。 (InnoLight)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_08e376c6-fe1e-4614-8333-a4afa0ca9a19","kind":"paragraph","order":543,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"Eoptolink　SZSE: 300502","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_35fc5077-7965-4236-9111-2f111c769930","kind":"paragraph","order":544,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"Moduleに加え、TO packaging、TOSA/ROSA/BOSA、in-house PICなど内製度が比較的高い。 (Eoptolink)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_009d2aab-5565-4334-878c-64995e732eb8","kind":"paragraph","order":545,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"TFC Optical　SZSE: 300394","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d4b44f09-ba62-481d-b0f9-4bc453cc1143","kind":"paragraph","order":546,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical sub-assembly、Fiber Array、FAU、micro-optics、TO packaging、800G/1.6T SiPh/EML向け光実装を手掛ける。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aed199cd-9a91-420a-8a07-2a624e246e01","kind":"paragraph","order":547,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"2025年末時点で、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5844942a-9b4f-480c-9979-d874734f6ba8","kind":"paragraph","order":548,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"従業員5,000人超工場面積25.6万m²世界7拠点","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bba011f3-ed87-4fe5-a1b4-5aa96c6385cf","kind":"paragraph","order":549,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"を持つ。 (TFCSZ)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_edf83ea1-d6e9-4c28-a4ce-47d3729a069e","kind":"paragraph","order":550,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"TFCは完成トランシーバーというより、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_63ab4498-5190-484b-acc5-17f690f3f43c","kind":"paragraph","order":551,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"光モジュールメーカーへOptical Engine、FAU、Lens、精密部品・光実装を供給する側","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b1839562-0384-4a42-b95d-0096a12d84cd","kind":"paragraph","order":552,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"として注目できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aa911d84-0cef-4573-b575-86eb9c1d63e8","kind":"paragraph","order":553,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"Accelink　SZSE: 002281","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0e721a6c-9f06-473c-9b87-a861631a0dc9","kind":"paragraph","order":554,"section_id":"sec_4c04a20d-6616-4024-b8c4-06f6c44e2738","character_id":null,"markdown":"1.6T SiPh moduleからOptical componentsまで広く展開する中国大手。Cisco SiPhとの1.6T協業例もある。 (Accelink)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d237081-8184-4d68-8d9d-5512d57f7b35","kind":"heading","order":555,"section_id":"sec_b105a781-0ac4-4cd8-a0b8-3fce6971413e","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜世界の光Packaging企業","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_82831f62-6db3-4de7-8c83-687116b16d45","kind":"figure","order":556,"section_id":"sec_b105a781-0ac4-4cd8-a0b8-3fce6971413e","character_id":null,"markdown":"![世界の光Packaging企業 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Global)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_606e5a47-f26f-4cfc-8ade-d5efb664a30a","kind":"paragraph","order":563,"section_id":"sec_a527a18e-b28f-4a68-9fce-4156333a0933","character_id":null,"markdown":"Amkor　NASDAQ: AMKR","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f03c2fce-6736-4d8f-acc1-9c5572353f82","kind":"paragraph","order":564,"section_id":"sec_a527a18e-b28f-4a68-9fce-4156333a0933","character_id":null,"markdown":"Lightmatterなどとの3D photonics integrationを進める。 (Amkor Technology)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d7878ea8-14ed-441e-8fb7-9c3c5c3a0dd2","kind":"paragraph","order":565,"section_id":"sec_a527a18e-b28f-4a68-9fce-4156333a0933","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coherent　NYSE: COHR","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d7a4e4f-2aa7-48d5-ab96-677ac0a38d8c","kind":"paragraph","order":566,"section_id":"sec_a527a18e-b28f-4a68-9fce-4156333a0933","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP waferからCW/EML、SiPh、passive optics、optical assembly、transceiverまで持つ垂直統合モデル。 (Coherent Inc)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cbd44d66-86a7-48b8-9d47-9b72b896eb62","kind":"paragraph","order":567,"section_id":"sec_a527a18e-b28f-4a68-9fce-4156333a0933","character_id":null,"markdown":"Lumentum　NASDAQ: LITE","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ee1d739-383b-4c2b-96d9-40893f4fd26f","kind":"paragraph","order":568,"section_id":"sec_a527a18e-b28f-4a68-9fce-4156333a0933","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP wafer fab＋Laser＋Thailand assembly/test。CW/EML増産の恩恵が大きい。 (Lumentum)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_005f8c64-0118-48f3-991f-2f376f5e2837","kind":"heading","order":569,"section_id":"sec_2d16749b-cec4-4246-9da5-055db81436c6","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Foundryと垂直統合Packaging","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_52c32d57-8255-436b-970a-75302a7b2f03","kind":"figure","order":570,"section_id":"sec_2d16749b-cec4-4246-9da5-055db81436c6","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Foundryと垂直統合Packaging 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第27章　日本で見るべき企業","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a21a4a01-9053-4809-91b1-691d6ee01bc0","kind":"paragraph","order":574,"section_id":"sec_154067a2-3bf2-41ee-96c1-a621e00f8600","character_id":null,"markdown":"住友電気工業　東証5802","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b45a157c-8e4b-49fd-9259-ac7559ae37d7","kind":"paragraph","order":575,"section_id":"sec_154067a2-3bf2-41ee-96c1-a621e00f8600","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP substrate、EML、CW-LDという上流側。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7e28afd6-86ce-4cb7-b547-6ba44cadad6b","kind":"paragraph","order":576,"section_id":"sec_154067a2-3bf2-41ee-96c1-a621e00f8600","character_id":null,"markdown":"2028年へ向けて光デバイス能力約12倍、InP substrate約2.4倍という増産計画を持つ。 (Sumitomo Electric)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_34606de6-f1cf-48e2-a379-8a6ca6f23cae","kind":"paragraph","order":577,"section_id":"sec_154067a2-3bf2-41ee-96c1-a621e00f8600","character_id":null,"markdown":"Tower Semiconductor","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fc8f4256-7ac0-4e27-ba1f-1e9d2ddaa26b","kind":"paragraph","order":578,"section_id":"sec_154067a2-3bf2-41ee-96c1-a621e00f8600","character_id":null,"markdown":"日本企業ではないが、魚津・新井に巨大SiPh/SiGe/advanced packaging拠点を作るため、日本の光ファブ供給網を見る上では極めて重要である。 (Tower Semiconductor)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_abbae6fa-a6b1-4a63-b7b6-afa30971422d","kind":"heading","order":579,"section_id":"sec_6e72c088-f07b-4f12-8292-5fec539c2ed5","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜日本のInP・SiPh・光実装","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d50615d-35be-4c84-9295-785a7da6f3bb","kind":"figure","order":580,"section_id":"sec_6e72c088-f07b-4f12-8292-5fec539c2ed5","character_id":null,"markdown":"![日本のInP・SiPh・光実装 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CW/EML","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_36e2add4-7a51-4ab3-90fd-792f75e5f97d","kind":"paragraph","order":584,"section_id":"sec_e1c3acdf-8f5e-4396-a2e5-83510f19ba52","character_id":null,"markdown":"最も専用設備が多い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cca10b08-e886-474e-bcbd-51af077d05e3","kind":"paragraph","order":585,"section_id":"sec_e1c3acdf-8f5e-4396-a2e5-83510f19ba52","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP substrate","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c4e7a72-25b6-4ac1-9dfc-c2d0766781a6","kind":"paragraph","order":586,"section_id":"sec_e1c3acdf-8f5e-4396-a2e5-83510f19ba52","character_id":null,"markdown":"Epitaxy","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_098026bf-ff3a-4a6e-8d19-89e65b8f1091","kind":"paragraph","order":587,"section_id":"sec_e1c3acdf-8f5e-4396-a2e5-83510f19ba52","character_id":null,"markdown":"DFB","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_27534f2d-0a09-4ac9-8d8a-5acf60f175db","kind":"paragraph","order":588,"section_id":"sec_e1c3acdf-8f5e-4396-a2e5-83510f19ba52","character_id":null,"markdown":"Regrowth","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d4679120-7a23-4230-bdcc-aac6dfca8377","kind":"paragraph","order":589,"section_id":"sec_e1c3acdf-8f5e-4396-a2e5-83510f19ba52","character_id":null,"markdown":"Facet","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cae69fd0-04d4-4807-acd2-b20714d16286","kind":"paragraph","order":590,"section_id":"sec_e1c3acdf-8f5e-4396-a2e5-83510f19ba52","character_id":null,"markdown":"Burn-in","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_285b3a90-0698-4998-b95e-a5c168b208ee","kind":"paragraph","order":591,"section_id":"sec_e1c3acdf-8f5e-4396-a2e5-83510f19ba52","character_id":null,"markdown":"まで必要。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e845d3fd-f308-4a75-80a5-abd0651585fa","kind":"paragraph","order":592,"section_id":"sec_e1c3acdf-8f5e-4396-a2e5-83510f19ba52","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coherentが6インチ化し、Lumentumが新Fabを建て、住友電工が大増産する理由である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb4ccb3f-a369-4beb-824c-5766c0c60c95","kind":"paragraph","order":593,"section_id":"sec_e1c3acdf-8f5e-4396-a2e5-83510f19ba52","character_id":null,"markdown":"② Optical Packaging","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_58df800e-ee35-4482-9445-43c5c8c1f6ae","kind":"paragraph","order":594,"section_id":"sec_e1c3acdf-8f5e-4396-a2e5-83510f19ba52","character_id":null,"markdown":"Active Alignment、Fiber Attach、Laser Attach、Thermal、Optical Testが必要。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2227bcc4-8ed2-4844-bd90-9c55e5af609d","kind":"paragraph","order":595,"section_id":"sec_e1c3acdf-8f5e-4396-a2e5-83510f19ba52","character_id":null,"markdown":"人・装置・工程ノウハウが必要で、単純なウェハ増産では解決しない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1eaf7734-1e5b-43fb-8e6e-db3a305df162","kind":"paragraph","order":596,"section_id":"sec_e1c3acdf-8f5e-4396-a2e5-83510f19ba52","character_id":null,"markdown":"③ SiPh Foundry","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5e9815b-20e7-4977-8c23-d35ba2b810da","kind":"paragraph","order":597,"section_id":"sec_e1c3acdf-8f5e-4396-a2e5-83510f19ba52","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在急速に逼迫しているが、CMOS型量産設備を利用でき、200→300mm化も進んでいる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3b466fa5-1814-412f-a197-425b0d412bec","kind":"paragraph","order":598,"section_id":"sec_e1c3acdf-8f5e-4396-a2e5-83510f19ba52","character_id":null,"markdown":"TowerはSiPh能力をQ4 2025比5倍超へ増やす計画である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_232bfbbe-500c-4f03-98ba-ac33ed0149c8","kind":"paragraph","order":599,"section_id":"sec_e1c3acdf-8f5e-4396-a2e5-83510f19ba52","character_id":null,"markdown":"④ Optical DSP","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f5b637cd-8f4b-4f9e-88b1-0e7ba6173445","kind":"paragraph","order":600,"section_id":"sec_e1c3acdf-8f5e-4396-a2e5-83510f19ba52","character_id":null,"markdown":"3nmそのものは難しいが、TSMCという巨大量産基盤を利用できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ff7c3c78-4d57-4f4c-8673-d018a0f5422f","kind":"paragraph","order":601,"section_id":"sec_e1c3acdf-8f5e-4396-a2e5-83510f19ba52","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって物理キャパの「特殊性」で考えるとInPとはかなり違う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d12252e6-a70a-4e0f-820a-bb8581f27ff7","kind":"heading","order":602,"section_id":"sec_dcf80f02-7eea-47f2-bf92-d7088fe25fab","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜InP・光実装・SiPh・DSPの製造難易度","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1f277022-de5f-41cd-833c-60f9d0c97445","kind":"figure","order":603,"section_id":"sec_dcf80f02-7eea-47f2-bf92-d7088fe25fab","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InP・光実装・SiPh・DSPの製造難易度 01](/media/d4ab12a70baf926bddabb4eb9e97bc8ffb8bcb563f9164c4cbeb54f8ef57fc31-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_afcbe7d2-4868-424b-889a-fb95a8dce7c0","kind":"figure","order":604,"section_id":"sec_dcf80f02-7eea-47f2-bf92-d7088fe25fab","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InP・光実装・SiPh・DSPの製造難易度 02](/media/34a18262604160562b850069e621844ac7f3ba5a393d29a4871c0b112d7f06a3-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d2ab828c-207a-43a6-ac96-c0abab370ada","kind":"figure","order":605,"section_id":"sec_dcf80f02-7eea-47f2-bf92-d7088fe25fab","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InP・光実装・SiPh・DSPの製造難易度 03](/media/709042531b689396e225f085b269a3e5c1828b987fb173304c80482c5bcab064-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ecd5a8b-2354-4465-ab37-e59732fd4575","kind":"figure","order":606,"section_id":"sec_dcf80f02-7eea-47f2-bf92-d7088fe25fab","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InP・光実装・SiPh・DSPの製造難易度 04](/media/1b63346a44d9c57869a106ec2c309392396c08d4e1ac31d4adc311cc8d8942eb-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_78364415-d2fc-4ccd-b56c-6c7922801aff","kind":"figure","order":607,"section_id":"sec_dcf80f02-7eea-47f2-bf92-d7088fe25fab","character_id":null,"markdown":"![InP・光実装・SiPh・DSPの製造難易度 05](/media/707488bf2ccc4ea8ff3e35ed964786a30188d44a2c724c10015872a3ce4c76fa-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d204d4b3-684d-44a1-9ded-8940555d970a","kind":"heading","order":608,"section_id":"sec_d24aa2dc-1bb5-45f1-ba24-38568cdfc6cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 第29章　800G→1.6T→3.2T→CPOで、価値はどこへ移るのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_11bf5ecd-ebde-45f6-9eb4-eb5663524602","kind":"paragraph","order":609,"section_id":"sec_d24aa2dc-1bb5-45f1-ba24-38568cdfc6cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"従来のpluggableでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aec80e41-195c-4538-82ee-f5c1bf1ef2aa","kind":"paragraph","order":610,"section_id":"sec_d24aa2dc-1bb5-45f1-ba24-38568cdfc6cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"DSP\n ↓\nDriver/TIA\n ↓\nLaser/PIC\n ↓\nOptical Packaging\n ↓\nOSFP","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2a54f8b2-62c8-45a8-89c4-0b03d26c9205","kind":"paragraph","order":611,"section_id":"sec_d24aa2dc-1bb5-45f1-ba24-38568cdfc6cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"だった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6223b19f-b572-46f7-a984-4b0d122a0ccb","kind":"paragraph","order":612,"section_id":"sec_d24aa2dc-1bb5-45f1-ba24-38568cdfc6cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしLPO/LRO/CPOへ進むと、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_21abe078-0a73-4866-95d1-6393f5657a4d","kind":"paragraph","order":613,"section_id":"sec_d24aa2dc-1bb5-45f1-ba24-38568cdfc6cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"DSP機能を削り、Electrical ICとPICの距離を縮める","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_20b5704a-001b-40e2-86a8-98976f8fc7bd","kind":"paragraph","order":614,"section_id":"sec_d24aa2dc-1bb5-45f1-ba24-38568cdfc6cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"方向へ進む。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c1d5087d-f9a0-4f94-be13-5ba4c3c085ae","kind":"paragraph","order":615,"section_id":"sec_d24aa2dc-1bb5-45f1-ba24-38568cdfc6cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"ASEのCPOではretimerを不要にできる可能性も示されている。 (ASE Global)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_19cc6982-295b-4631-afc4-3e0f35950583","kind":"paragraph","order":616,"section_id":"sec_d24aa2dc-1bb5-45f1-ba24-38568cdfc6cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方で、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b8e24bda-c6f0-4c34-98f7-d782f7593cde","kind":"paragraph","order":617,"section_id":"sec_d24aa2dc-1bb5-45f1-ba24-38568cdfc6cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"CW LaserSiPhFiber couplingOptical Packaging","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1a48534d-4ebb-4531-8155-4419213760bc","kind":"paragraph","order":618,"section_id":"sec_d24aa2dc-1bb5-45f1-ba24-38568cdfc6cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"はなくならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ba82c78-eedc-4517-ad6b-54feb24a27ed","kind":"paragraph","order":619,"section_id":"sec_d24aa2dc-1bb5-45f1-ba24-38568cdfc6cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"むしろASICへ近づくほど実装難度は高まる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3e363724-0759-441f-b9cd-a4e0644c3397","kind":"paragraph","order":620,"section_id":"sec_d24aa2dc-1bb5-45f1-ba24-38568cdfc6cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため将来は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_67c4afef-e298-4dd9-b54c-9cf0d8cfe9ac","kind":"paragraph","order":621,"section_id":"sec_d24aa2dc-1bb5-45f1-ba24-38568cdfc6cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_129d4e70-7865-4347-905f-370d29d0b577","kind":"paragraph","order":622,"section_id":"sec_d24aa2dc-1bb5-45f1-ba24-38568cdfc6cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical Packaging\n       +\nModule Assembly","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd0bb013-37f5-406f-878e-2dc2ac5c80b4","kind":"paragraph","order":623,"section_id":"sec_d24aa2dc-1bb5-45f1-ba24-38568cdfc6cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"将来","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4237ec0b-004e-4f8c-84bd-4283e5ebf4cb","kind":"paragraph","order":624,"section_id":"sec_d24aa2dc-1bb5-45f1-ba24-38568cdfc6cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"Advanced Packaging\n       +\nOptical Packaging\n       +\nPhotonics","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0580953d-1fdc-466e-95ab-671a9a03a3be","kind":"paragraph","order":625,"section_id":"sec_d24aa2dc-1bb5-45f1-ba24-38568cdfc6cc","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ産業が融合していく可能性が高い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_479fa6bb-499d-44fa-8de6-f2ab7557c3c4","kind":"heading","order":626,"section_id":"sec_5d27446d-5728-472f-bf40-2747be691703","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜ModuleからPhotonics統合へ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f77df4ba-54a8-4f4c-b1e3-77081c6ff8d0","kind":"figure","order":627,"section_id":"sec_5d27446d-5728-472f-bf40-2747be691703","character_id":null,"markdown":"![ModuleからPhotonics統合へ 01](/media/9a0a9a721bd4ae44ba41e554d090ab58bb5a726d4e9c0441476bda9a0cb7c31b-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_00eb040a-956b-42ad-854c-c3fad6fe64fa","kind":"figure","order":628,"section_id":"sec_5d27446d-5728-472f-bf40-2747be691703","character_id":null,"markdown":"![ModuleからPhotonics統合へ 02](/media/2760ceee7678b48cd9970cbb771ced8f7ddd9704dc85611fcfda09a40611e9d8-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_29132b95-face-4f4a-9c44-2cd16c6d4fdd","kind":"figure","order":629,"section_id":"sec_5d27446d-5728-472f-bf40-2747be691703","character_id":null,"markdown":"![ModuleからPhotonics統合へ 03](/media/c8e02bc6e937d32da246ce2f4c6c33c0a9a87509fd077bd613fb4b3edfea3f26-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0f397d1-53e9-4ace-9d88-6db9f8ef6f7d","kind":"heading","order":630,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 結論――AI時代の光通信は「ファブの掛け算」で決まる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c889b4aa-c08e-4c77-87fd-32698c2f49b2","kind":"paragraph","order":631,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"1.6T光トランシーバーは、一社だけで作られているわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_628a04ad-a699-4c87-9cba-4d6da1c0ebde","kind":"paragraph","order":632,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"その背後では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c43edcb3-2766-4171-98e9-8c5fbc03891c","kind":"paragraph","order":633,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"Broadcom / MarvellがDSP・TIA・Driverを設計し、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_07e0d01f-4781-4e2d-8f21-b7e19574ff9e","kind":"paragraph","order":634,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"TSMCなどが電子ICを製造し、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_46ce293d-d298-434a-b1cb-ac600c35c9f6","kind":"paragraph","order":635,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"Tower / GlobalFoundries / TSMC / UMCがSiPh PICを作り、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_116cc6fe-37d0-4dd9-86ff-f4042996275f","kind":"paragraph","order":636,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coherent / Lumentum / SumitomoがInP CWレーザーを作り、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_baa40df4-593d-49ad-bb68-b257dd3dfaca","kind":"paragraph","order":637,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"Innolight / Eoptolink / Coherent / FabrinetがOptical EngineとModuleへ組み上げる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d11ab82e-45c6-4cf6-9222-20f77517f148","kind":"paragraph","order":638,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"そしてCPOになると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d3741c66-ce7e-44d5-8163-587c88baa4a8","kind":"paragraph","order":639,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"ASE / Amkor / TSMCなどAdvanced Packaging勢","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_13665972-08e3-4f74-aee5-b4a8c479da66","kind":"paragraph","order":640,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"までここへ入ってくる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_feca45c2-cbbf-4131-b738-d24b3af87376","kind":"paragraph","order":641,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってAI光通信の供給能力は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_75cbf834-9d5b-45f9-89f5-9cf32885d4ab","kind":"paragraph","order":642,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"DSP能力 × SiPh能力 × CWレーザー能力 × Optical Packaging能力 × Module能力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e18d0fec-0228-45a0-9f1d-ae757f6f9c2e","kind":"paragraph","order":643,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"の掛け算で決まる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_161d5d5e-d76c-4608-b8c1-08d76723b335","kind":"paragraph","order":644,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"どれか一つがゼロに近づけば、他をどれほど増産しても1.6Tモジュールは完成しない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e22ce465-c1af-4378-b215-9e4092bf1912","kind":"paragraph","order":645,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在特に注目すべき数字は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d2758c92-6e84-47ae-8a50-229ec67bb61e","kind":"paragraph","order":646,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国Module能力：約56%中国EML/CW能力：2025年16.05%Tower SiPh：Q4 2025比5倍超への能力拡大Coherent CW：Shermanで約5倍超住友電工：2028年までにIntra-DC光デバイス能力約12倍","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_604db5e7-e927-4616-afef-11c06e507fc7","kind":"paragraph","order":647,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"という非対称な設備投資である。 (TrendForce)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_65556560-8674-494f-a467-a8f33f3e2399","kind":"paragraph","order":648,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは、AIデータセンターの光通信が単なる「InnolightやEoptolinkのトランシーバー需要」の話ではなくなったことを意味する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c45d61e-7386-4852-bf0a-f5e3964d7872","kind":"paragraph","order":649,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"本当に見るべきなのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c0bde135-a960-4a98-b163-f6896e0aa792","kind":"paragraph","order":650,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"何Tbps売れるかではなく、そのTbpsを作るための「光のFab」がどこにあり、何枚のウェハを処理でき、何個のレーザーをBurn-inでき、何本のFiber Arrayを正確に接続できるのか。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_42560a7d-e48c-4ca8-928a-b67e6e7cb7f4","kind":"paragraph","order":651,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIインフラの次の設備投資競争は、GPU Fabだけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0eb4d8a6-d6e0-4185-b5a0-a98a3ead3210","kind":"paragraph","order":652,"section_id":"sec_c77da95d-70f8-4162-a97a-7f964ea7ccad","character_id":null,"markdown":"光を作るFab、光を操るFab、そして光をつなぐFabへ広がっている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7f782bf3-c32c-428e-b428-ad94ae16ec10","kind":"heading","order":653,"section_id":"sec_0f04914b-0dda-419b-9f94-96d233d582ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜光Fabの掛け算","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_49454d28-db0b-4a2c-b87f-68d8e941370c","kind":"figure","order":654,"section_id":"sec_0f04914b-0dda-419b-9f94-96d233d582ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光Fabの掛け算 01](/media/2adbb8ad3ab2d5f8ef95ac9f49ab08df4598220d540328e5f16bd5eaa5a66421-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3908c22e-0fd3-473f-99a8-8bd2d803c6a1","kind":"figure","order":655,"section_id":"sec_0f04914b-0dda-419b-9f94-96d233d582ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光Fabの掛け算 02](/media/0273ef8e86068a2f671b994ba59e53630083118c6521fa5388d4f2b1efd8778d-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1502da41-2678-4eca-b993-7b0929d5fee9","kind":"heading","order":656,"section_id":"sec_fd8143dd-edd6-4246-9a0a-b57613c5809b","character_id":null,"markdown":"## さらに深く読むための座標","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e52ef08f-0a48-49a4-bf8f-a07986ee500a","kind":"paragraph","order":657,"section_id":"sec_fd8143dd-edd6-4246-9a0a-b57613c5809b","character_id":null,"markdown":"光通信の供給能力は、最も大きなウェハFabではなく、材料・素子・結合・検査を連結した時に最も細くなる工程で決まる。各レイヤーのCapacityを掛け算で捉える必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_de408bd4-c9d5-47af-a288-c38e5d111f80","kind":"table","order":658,"section_id":"sec_fd8143dd-edd6-4246-9a0a-b57613c5809b","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 層 | 観測対象 | 問うべきこと |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| ウェハ | CMOS DSP・SiPh PIC・InP Laser | 材料、径、Process、良品Die |\n| 実装 | Die attach・Laser/Fiber attach・Alignment | μm級精度、熱、逐次工程 |\n| Module | Firmware・Burn-in・Optical test・Assembly | 顧客仕様と大量生産 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a89cc643-1df8-4c38-a34c-c0a4ff9a4f6a","kind":"heading","order":659,"section_id":"sec_2e140bd0-3623-4715-9620-48e37d6c5d09","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"## 絶ノイアの観測","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a6289df3-a513-44a3-987b-823691f495e0","kind":"paragraph","order":660,"section_id":"sec_2e140bd0-3623-4715-9620-48e37d6c5d09","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"Fab能力を足し算しても、完成Moduleは増えません。光結合のタクトが半分なら、上流ウェハを二倍にしても仕掛品の山が増えるだけです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_912ed27c-7e78-48f1-ac15-754bace646df","kind":"paragraph","order":661,"section_id":"sec_2e140bd0-3623-4715-9620-48e37d6c5d09","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"私は「ウェハ」「実装」「Module」を別々の話題にせず、一つのAIインフラが通過する連続した設計課題として観測します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_862d67cb-deb3-45aa-8bf4-3e2a66a60309","kind":"paragraph","order":662,"section_id":"sec_2e140bd0-3623-4715-9620-48e37d6c5d09","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"各層のウェハ径・良品率・後工程タクトを分ける。発表された最大性能や市場規模だけでなく、実装、量産、運用が同じ速度で前進しているかを確かめたいからです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_00e8bfa3-b84d-48d4-a400-147e911b35e3","kind":"heading","order":663,"section_id":"sec_c0e68f41-61d6-42d4-8209-76a301564807","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"## Sil-Kathnaの記録","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd921d26-7322-4bd8-818a-ed5ec3af13e9","kind":"paragraph","order":664,"section_id":"sec_c0e68f41-61d6-42d4-8209-76a301564807","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"五つの炉は別々に燃える。だが最後の器は、最も遅い炉の歩みに合わせてしか生まれぬ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0893abee-6ca6-414b-95ca-57349f2a883a","kind":"paragraph","order":665,"section_id":"sec_c0e68f41-61d6-42d4-8209-76a301564807","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"私は「ウェハ」「実装」「Module」を、計算する文明へ続く三つの門として石板に刻む。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_151ee148-6130-49dc-95b4-6fb32f4120dc","kind":"paragraph","order":666,"section_id":"sec_c0e68f41-61d6-42d4-8209-76a301564807","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"最初の門だけが開いても、次の門に熱、傷、遅れが残れば、光と記憶は炉心へ届かない。強い器とは、最も華やかな石を持つ器ではなく、異なる工房の歩調を長い夜の中で揃えられる器である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_378588c6-c7bd-4f42-9382-c28796a66610","kind":"paragraph","order":667,"section_id":"sec_c0e68f41-61d6-42d4-8209-76a301564807","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"ゆえに私は、各層のウェハ径・良品率・後工程タクトを分ける。その結果が一時の輝きではなく、繰り返し作り、直し、動かせる秩序になったかを見届ける。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3d62b53-ead9-4645-9f91-94cb001faa45","kind":"heading","order":668,"section_id":"sec_3a22384d-d013-4acd-9e4d-687657e6d594","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 二人の短い対話","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f459754d-e00d-47d4-95b7-53d0a12e49d8","kind":"paragraph","order":669,"section_id":"sec_3a22384d-d013-4acd-9e4d-687657e6d594","character_id":null,"markdown":"**絶ノイア:** 光産業のMoatは素子性能だけでなく、異種工程を安定して束ねる運用にあります。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e91d9743-8cc7-40c2-bec3-41ae05a67e49","kind":"paragraph","order":670,"section_id":"sec_3a22384d-d013-4acd-9e4d-687657e6d594","character_id":null,"markdown":"**Sil-Kathna:** 異なる石と光を一つの器へ封じ、同じ傷を二度と生まぬ記憶こそ工房の力である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ac731776-ac7e-40d4-9db3-acab2dd4b0d6","kind":"heading","order":671,"section_id":"sec_50ccfd0f-2cf2-41ed-a697-40d9f66970ee","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 観測メモ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15ef754b-96e4-4cb4-9947-eb887b4863c7","kind":"list","order":672,"section_id":"sec_50ccfd0f-2cf2-41ed-a697-40d9f66970ee","character_id":null,"markdown":"- 各層のウェハ径・良品率・後工程タクトを分ける\n- Active Alignmentの自動化率と再現性を見る\n- 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AIデータセンターの「光」は誰が作っているのか――Tomahawk・Nova・Innolight・Leaf/Spineを一枚につなぐ\n\nInnolight・Eoptolinkの台頭から、Tomahawk、Nova、NVLink、OSFP、Leaf/Spineまで読み解く\n\n2026年8月、AIインフラを追っていた人々の目が、突然二つの中国企業へ向いた。\n\nZhongji Innolight（中際旭創）とEoptolink（新易盛）である。\n\nきっかけは8月4日のReuters報道だった。米国政府が国家安全保障上の理由から、中国製データセンター機器の「新型モデル」の輸入を制限する措置を準備しており、とりわけ光トランシーバーが対象として検討されている、と関係者が話したという。翌5日にはInnolight、Eoptolink、TFC Opticalなど中国の光関連銘柄が急落した。現時点では最終決定された全面禁止ではなく、FCCを中心に検討中の措置である点には注意が必要だ。(Reuters)\n\nなぜこのニュースがこれほど大きく反応されたのか。\n\nReutersが引用した推計では、Innolightだけで世界の光トランシーバー市場のおよそ27%を握る。またReuters Breakingviewsは、中国企業全体では世界の光トランシーバー出荷の半分超を占めると整理している。(Reuters)\n\nここで一つ疑問が生じる。\n\nそれほどInnolightやEoptolinkが重要なのであれば、BroadcomのTomahawkやMarvellのNovaは一体何なのか。BroadcomやMarvellも光通信をやっているのではないのか。\n\nさらに、\n\nCoherentやLumentumとの違いは何なのか。\n\nそしてもう一つ。\n\nかつてCiscoがネットワーク市場を圧倒していたという話を目にする。それなのに、なぜ現在のAIデータセンターでは中国のInnolightやEoptolinkの名前がこれほど前面に出てくるようになったのだろうか。\n\nこの疑問を解くには、「光トランシーバー市場」という一つの箱として考えるのをやめる必要がある。\n\nAIデータセンターの通信は、\n\nGPU → PCIe/NVLink → NIC → SerDes/PHY → 光DSP → 光トランシーバー → Fiber → Leaf Switch → Spine Switch\n\nという複数の階層からできており、それぞれを別の企業が握っている。\n\nこの記事では、そこから順番に分解していく。\n\n## 1　まず結論――TomahawkとNovaとInnolightは同じ製品ではない\n\n最初に最も重要な整理をしておこう。\n\n| 名前 | 主なもの | 役割 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Broadcom | Tomahawk | Switch ASIC。パケットをどのポートへ送るか決める |\n| Marvell | Nova / Nova 2 | Optical DSP。高速電気信号と光側信号の間を補正・整形する |\n| Innolight | 光トランシーバーメーカー | DSP・レーザー・SiPh等を統合して完成モジュール化 |\n| Eoptolink | 光トランシーバーメーカー | 同上 |\n| Coherent | 光素子＋SiPh＋トランシーバー | より垂直統合的 |\n| Lumentum | EML/CWレーザー＋トランシーバー | 光源・光半導体が特に強い |\n| NVIDIA | Spectrum | Switch ASIC/スイッチ。Ethernetネットワークを制御 |\n| NVIDIA | NVLink/NVSwitch | Scale-up interconnect。GPU同士を極低遅延・高帯域で接続 |\n\nBroadcomのTomahawk 6は、単一チップで最大102.4Tb/sのEthernet switching capacityを持つスイッチASICであり、200G SerDesまで備える。つまり光トランシーバーではない。(Broadcom)\n\n一方、Marvell Nova 2は1.6Tb/s PAM4 Optical DSPである。8本の200Gb/s電気インターフェースと8本の200Gb/s光側インターフェースを持ち、1.6T光トランシーバーを作るための半導体だ。(Marvell Technology)\n\nそしてInnolightやEoptolinkは、このようなDSPやレーザー、変調器、受光器、SiPhなどを一つの小さなOSFPモジュールへ統合する。\n\nしたがって、\n\nTomahawk ＝ 道路の交差点を制御する頭脳\n\nNova ＝ 光モジュールの信号処理を行う頭脳\n\nInnolight / Eoptolink\n＝ それらの部品を使って\n   実際に光ファイバーへ接続できる完成モジュールを作る\n\nという関係になる。\n\n### 図解｜Switch ASIC・Optical DSP・光トランシーバの違い\n\n![Switch ASIC・Optical DSP・光トランシーバの違い 01](/media/69bcea7c9102c8bd42f28b4174593a8ddcefe96118357679827fc89b9cb23357-content.webp)\n\n## 2　そもそも光トランシーバーとは何なのか\n\n光トランシーバーは簡単にいえば、\n\n電気信号 ⇄ 光信号\n\nを相互変換する装置である。\n\n例えばLeaf SwitchからSpine Switchへ1.6Tb/sのデータを送りたいとする。\n\nSwitch ASIC\n     │\n     │ 電気信号\n     ▼\n1.6T Optical Transceiver\n     │\n     │ 光信号\n     ▼\n   Fiber\n     │\n     ▼\n1.6T Optical Transceiver\n     │\n     │ 電気信号\n     ▼\nSpine Switch ASIC\n\n光ファイバーそのものには、GPUのbit列を電気のまま流すことはできない。\n\nそこで光トランシーバー内部で電気信号をレーザー光の変化へ変える。\n\n典型的なDSP型1.6Tモジュールなら、\n\n┌──────────── 1.6T OSFP ────────────┐\n\nElectrical Interface\n        │\n        ▼\nOptical DSP\n        │\n        ▼\nDriver\n        │\n        ▼\nLaser / Modulator\nEML または SiPh\n        │\n        ▼\n      Fiber\n\nFiber\n  │\n  ▼\nPhotodiode\n  │\n  ▼\nTIA\n  │\n  ▼\nOptical DSP\n  │\n  ▼\nElectrical Interface\n\n└───────────────────────────────────┘\n\nという構造になる。\n\nしたがってトランシーバーは「変調器」そのものでも、「レーザー」そのものでもない。\n\nレーザー、変調器、受光器、Driver、TIA、DSP、制御回路、光学実装、ファイバー結合などを一つにまとめた通信装置なのである。\n\n### 図解｜光トランシーバの内部\n\n![光トランシーバの内部 01](/media/fee9f0dc0d0a2b218e3e975f1c595ab1eb78bf3b83e86a7b9d6d75ffda3f9e88-content.webp)\n\n## 3　800Gや1.6Tとは、何が800G・1.6Tなのか\n\nここも非常に重要だ。\n\n「1.6Tレーザー」という意味ではない。\n\n1.6Tとは、\n\n1.6 terabit per second\n\nつまり、その光トランシーバーが片方向に扱える総通信帯域を表している。\n\n現在の代表例なら、\n\n200 Gb/s × 8 lane\n        =\n     1.6 Tb/s\n\nとなる。\n\nOSFP規格も8本の高速電気レーンを基本とし、\n\n8 × 50G  = 400G\n8 × 100G = 800G\n8 × 200G = 1.6T\n\nまで拡張されている。(OSFPmsa)\n\nしたがって、\n\n800G → 1.6T\n\nとはモジュールが単純に大きくなったという意味ではない。\n\n1本あたりの信号速度を、\n\n100G/lane\n   ↓\n200G/lane\n\nへ上げることで、同じ8レーンから2倍のデータを運ぶようになったのである。\n\nなお「200G」という言葉には注意が必要だ。\n\n200Gは「200Gモジュール全体」を指す場合もあれば、\n\n200G/lane\n\nを意味する場合もある。\n\n現在1.6Tについて議論するときの200Gは、多くの場合後者である。\n\n### 図解｜800Gと1.6Tの意味\n\n![800Gと1.6Tの意味 01](/media/48a6067dad82caaf05514af1d09ac41c371eea5172e91f07625d35ac140e7ae1-content.webp)\n\n## 4　電気側と光側ではレーン構成が違うこともある\n\n例えば1.6T DR8なら、\n\nElectrical\n200G × 8\n   ↓\nOptical DSP\n   ↓\nOptical\n200G × 8\n   ↓\n1.6T\n\nで比較的分かりやすい。\n\nしかし波長多重を使えば、\n\nλ1\nλ2\nλ3\nλ4\n   ↓\nWDM\n   ↓\n1本のFiber\n\nのように複数波長を一本のファイバーへまとめることができる。\n\nEoptolinkは2023年時点ですでに200G/lambdaを使う1.6T製品を公開しており、EML、Silicon Photonics、TFLNなど複数の変調技術を評価していた。(Eoptolink)\n\nつまり今起きている競争は単なる「800Gを1.6Tにする」競争ではない。\n\n1波長、1レーンあたり何Gb/sまで引き上げられるのか\n\nという競争でもある。\n\n### 図解｜DR8・FR4・波長多重\n\n![DR8・FR4・波長多重 01](/media/1fbc339ff9dae473c694d595e29a0a49397a1c7ca6d42d8d5e5f14cb85f44ebc-content.webp)\n\n## 5　Broadcom Tomahawkとは何なのか\n\nではSwitch ASICへ進もう。\n\nBroadcom Tomahawkは、\n\n大量のパケットを受け取り、それぞれを正しい出口へ猛烈な速度で振り分けるASIC\n\nである。\n\n例えばLeaf Switchへ次の通信が同時に入る。\n\nGPU 1 → GPU 105\nGPU 2 → GPU 42\nGPU 3 → GPU 900\nGPU 4 → GPU 22\nGPU 5 → GPU 781\n\nSwitch ASICはそれぞれのパケットを解析して、\n\nInput\n  │\n  ▼\n┌──────────────────┐\n│   Switch ASIC    │\n│                  │\n│ Parser           │\n│ Lookup           │\n│ Routing          │\n│ Load Balance     │\n│ Congestion Mgmt  │\n│ Scheduling       │\n└──────┬───────────┘\n       │\n ┌─────┼─────┐\n ▼     ▼     ▼\nPort1 Port8 Port32\n\nと振り分ける。\n\nTomahawk 6は102.4Tb/sのスイッチング能力を1チップで実現し、100G/200G SerDesとAIクラスタ向けのロードバランシング、輻輳管理機能を備える。(Broadcom)\n\nつまりTomahawkは、\n\n光を作る装置ではなく、通信の行き先を決める装置\n\nである。\n\n### 図解｜Switch ASICの役割\n\n![Switch ASICの役割 01](/media/194bcc9ca471e2620527e6c84d30f18a2f73fbdf3fef20df69d2e1b064e78520-content.webp)\n\n## 6　SerDesとは何なのか\n\nただしSwitch ASICの仕事はパケット処理だけではない。\n\nASICの端には大量のSerDesがある。\n\nSerDesとは、\n\nSerializer / Deserializer\n\nの略である。\n\nチップ内部では大量のデータを並列に処理できても、そのまま何千本もの配線を外へ出すことはできない。\n\nそこで、\n\nParallel Data\n\nD0 ─┐\nD1 ─┤\nD2 ─┤\nD3 ─┤\nD4 ─┤\nD5 ─┤\nD6 ─┤\nD7 ─┘\n     │\n     ▼\n Serializer\n     │\n     ▼\n\n### 図解｜SerDesの直列化と復元\n\n![SerDesの直列化と復元 01](/media/9db7d93164a9c146713a745d8e3273406de3eabfa13d067c0bf90e249d71f5e0-content.webp)\n\n## 101101001101010...\n\nと高速serial信号へ変換する。\n\n受信側では逆に、\n\nSerial\n  ↓\nDeserializer\n  ↓\nParallel\n\nへ戻す。\n\nしかも現在のSerDesは、単なる直列変換器ではない。\n\n高速電気信号はPCBやコネクタを通るうちに、\n\n信号損失、ISI、ジッタ、ノイズなどによって波形が崩れる。\n\nそのためEqualizationやCDR――Clock and Data Recovery――などを使って、\n\n崩れた信号から元のbitとクロックを復元する\n\n必要がある。\n\nBroadcomもSerDesをGPU/XPU、NIC、Switch、Retimer、Optical DSPをつなぐAIインフラの基礎技術として位置づけている。(Broadcom)\n\nしたがってSwitch ASICは「信号を増幅するもの」というより、\n\nデータを読み直し、処理し、きれいな新しい高速信号として次のリンクへ送る\n\nと理解した方が近い。\n\n## 7　PHYとは何なのか\n\nPHYはPhysical Layer、つまり物理層である。\n\nSerDesはPHYを構成する非常に重要な部分だが、\n\nSerDes＝PHY\n\nではない。\n\n概念的には、\n\nEthernet MAC\n    │\n    ▼\n   PCS\n    │\n    ▼\n   PMA\n    │\n    └── SerDes\n    │\n    ▼\n   PMD\n    │\n    ▼\nCopper / Fiber\n\nという階層になっている。\n\nPCSでは符号化、レーン分配、FECなどを扱い、PMAではSerDesなど高速電気信号を扱う。\n\nその先のPMDは実際の伝送媒体に依存する。\n\nつまりPHYとは、\n\n論理的なEthernetデータを、実際にケーブルや光ファイバーを通る物理信号へ落とし込む一連の階層\n\nなのである。\n\n### 図解｜PHYの階層\n\n![PHYの階層 01](/media/574c1dc83f6d171f5524213180dd5884dd3c67032960b842890bfdf67defbe46-content.webp)\n\n## 8　ではMarvell Novaは何をしているのか\n\nTomahawkとNovaを混同しやすい理由がここにある。\n\nどちらも高速通信半導体だが、役割が違う。\n\nMarvell Nova 2は1.6T Optical DSPである。\n\n具体的には、\n\nSwitch / NIC\n\n8 × 200G electrical\n        │\n        ▼\n┌──────────────────┐\n│ Marvell Nova 2   │\n│ Optical DSP      │\n└────────┬─────────┘\n         │\n8 × 200G optical side\n         │\n         ▼\nDriver / EML / SiPh\n         │\n         ▼\n       Fiber\n\nという位置に入る。\n\nMarvellによればNova 2は8本の200Gb/s host electrical interfaceと8本の200Gb/s optical interfaceを持つ。(Marvell Technology)\n\nしたがって、\n\nTomahawk＝Switchの頭脳\n\nNova＝光トランシーバー内部の信号処理の頭脳\n\nである。\n\n### 図解｜Optical DSPの役割\n\n![Optical DSPの役割 01](/media/eaa59b8dcb304f2e03cb052f6020e639a373e5b44813d1b06d10c1f7559d278b-content.webp)\n\n## 9　Broadcomはさらにややこしい\n\nBroadcomが理解しにくい理由は、\n\n両方やっている\n\nからだ。\n\nBroadcomにはTomahawkというSwitch ASICがある一方で、光モジュール向けDSP、PHY、SerDes、VCSELなどの光通信部品もある。\n\nしたがって同じネットワークの中に、\n\nBroadcom Switch ASIC\n        │\n        ▼\nInnolight / Eoptolink Module\n        │\n        └─ 内部にBroadcom DSP\n\nという構成が存在してもおかしくない。\n\n実際Eoptolinkは400G時代、Broadcomの7nm PAM4 Optical Platformを使った400G DR4/FR4モジュールを量産していた。Broadcom自身も、光モジュールメーカーが同社のPHY、PMD IC、III-V光部品を組み合わせられることを説明している。(Eoptolink)\n\nさらにMarvellのNova 2発表ではInnolightの幹部がコメントしており、Nova 2とInnolightの高速トランシーバー設計・量産能力を組み合わせる関係が明記されている。(Marvell Technology)\n\nつまりこれは、\n\n米国製DSP vs 中国製光モジュール\n\nという単純な対立構造ではない。\n\n実際には極めて深く相互依存したサプライチェーンなのである。\n\n### 図解｜Broadcomの二つの位置\n\n![Broadcomの二つの位置 01](/media/02681814daab0dd41da010a87cc87c084e04899445d0349c54ebe58be548cf02-content.webp)\n\n## 10　CoherentはInnolightと何が違うのか\n\nCoherentはかなり特殊だ。\n\nInnolightやEoptolinkが高速光モジュールの設計・量産に特化した「スペシャリスト」に近いのに対し、Coherentは、\n\n材料\n ↓\nInP / GaAs\n ↓\nLaser / VCSEL / EML\n ↓\nSiPh\n ↓\nDriver / TIA\n ↓\nOptical Engine\n ↓\n完成Transceiver\n\nまでかなり広く持つ。\n\n現在のCoherentは、旧II-VIが2019年にFinisarを買収し、さらに2022年に旧Coherentを買収してCoherent Corp.へ改称した会社である。Finisarは長年、世界最大級の光トランシーバー企業だった。(Coherent Inc)\n\n現在もCoherentはSiPh、InP CWレーザー、200G EML、200G VCSELなど複数の光技術を持ち、1.6Tモジュールまで自社で作っている。(Coherent Inc)\n\n2025年には、Coherentの1.6T DR8 SiPhトランシーバーの内部でMarvell Ara 3nm Optical DSPを使用する実演も公開された。(Coherent Inc)\n\nつまりCoherentでさえすべての半導体を100%自社製にするとは限らない。\n\nどこを内製し、どこを外部DSPに任せるかを柔軟に選べる垂直統合型企業\n\nと見る方が正しい。\n\n### 図解｜垂直統合型とModule統合型\n\n![垂直統合型とModule統合型 01](/media/11ef293b93c36624d4f4bed3b1c933aef46315823566b162a3ac3b243729fdb7-content.webp)\n\n## 11　Lumentumはさらに「光源寄り」から始まった\n\nLumentumは2015年、JDSUのCommunications and Commercial Optical Products事業が分離されて誕生した。(Lumentum Investor Relations)\n\n特に強いのが、\n\nInP EML、CW Laser、VCSELなど光半導体\n\nである。\n\n例えばLumentumの200G EMLは、8本使えば1.6Tトランシーバーを構成できる。(Lumentum)\n\nSilicon Photonicsでもレーザーそのものまでシリコンで作るとは限らない。\n\n典型的には、\n\nInP CW Laser\n     │\n     ▼\nSilicon Photonics PIC\n     │\n     ├─ Modulator\n     ├─ Waveguide\n     └─ Coupler\n     │\n     ▼\n   Fiber\n\nとなるため、LumentumやCoherentのCW InPレーザーが重要になる。Lumentum自身もCWレーザーを400G、800G、1.6T SiPh/CPO向け光源として位置づけている。(Lumentum)\n\nただしLumentumも現在は純粋な部品メーカーではない。\n\n2023年にCloud Lightを買収してデータセンター向け光トランシーバーへ再拡大し、現在は1.6Tトランシーバーも展開している。(Lumentum)\n\n### 図解｜Lumentumの光源からModuleへの展開\n\n![Lumentumの光源からModuleへの展開 01](/media/7ba49d79e35adb4c7ce8f80755ed6cab79a152d2e8d6135c62b4af46c34761bc-content.webp)\n\n## 12　Innolightはどのようにしてここまで来たのか\n\nInnolightの歴史を見ると、AIブームで突然現れた会社ではないことが分かる。\n\n2008年に蘇州で光トランシーバー企業として設立。\n\n2012年には40G QSFP+。\n\n2017年に上場企業の中際電工と再編してZhongji Innolightとなった。\n\n2018年には400G QSFP-DD FR4。\n\n2019年には400G Silicon Photonics DR4。\n\n2020年には800G OSFP/QSFP-DD800。\n\n2023年には1.6Tトランシーバーへ到達した。(InnoLight)\n\nつまり、\n\n40G\n ↓\n100G\n ↓\n400G\n ↓\n800G\n ↓\n1.6T\n\nというデータセンターEthernet高速化の波をほぼ正面から追い続けた会社である。\n\nさらに中国だけでなく、台湾、シンガポール、タイなどへR&D・製造機能を広げている。Innolightはタイの高量産工場について、高品質と低コストで世界顧客を支える拠点と説明している。(InnoLight)\n\n### 図解｜Innolightの高速化史\n\n![Innolightの高速化史 01](/media/01ee6395d9c677384f9eb0303ca48d778ec874c6b65fda3cdb1612d19bcb1b7f-content.webp)\n\n## 13　Eoptolinkも同じ2008年組だった\n\nEoptolinkも2008年創業である。\n\n2016年3月3日に深圳証券取引所へ上場した。(Eoptolink)\n\n2018年のOFCではすでに400Gポートフォリオを発表し、QSFP-DDとOSFPの双方へ対応していた。(Eoptolink)\n\n2023年には200G/lambdaを使った1.6Tを公開し、EMLだけでなくSiPh、TFLNまで評価している。(Eoptolink)\n\nつまりEoptolinkも、\n\n低速光モジュールを大量に作っていた会社がAIブームで偶然伸びた\n\nというより、\n\n400G→800G→1.6Tという高速データセンター光にかなり早い段階から資本と技術を集中していた\n\n会社なのである。\n\n### 図解｜Eoptolinkの高速化史\n\n![Eoptolinkの高速化史 01](/media/d3be95fa3789764d9286cc34d9d80635f3b7b090d98638a2cb6ebc9e5e8fe01b-content.webp)\n\n## 14　なぜ中国勢が強くなったのか\n\nここでLightCountingの15年間のランキング変化が非常に重要になる。\n\nLightCountingによれば、2018～2020年までに多くの日本・米国系メーカーが光トランシーバー市場から退出・縮小する一方、中国企業が順位を上げていった。Innolightは2023年に初めて世界1位となり、2024年売上は33億ドル超、Eoptolinkは2024年に前年比175%増の12億ドルとなって7位から3位へ急浮上した。(LightCounting)\n\nそして2025年。\n\nLightCountingでは、\n\n1位 Innolight\n\n2位 Eoptolink\n\nとなり、EoptolinkはCoherentを抜いた。\n\nInnolightの2025年売上はLightCounting集計で約53億ドル、Eoptolinkは約35億ドル。Eoptolinkは400G/800GでAmazonの主要サプライヤーとなり、NVIDIAなど他の米国大手でも認定を広げたとされる。(LightCounting)\n\nLightCountingはこの2社について、非常に端的な説明をしている。\n\n両社は、\n\n最も伸びている高速Ethernetトランシーバーへほぼ集中した「スペシャリスト」\n\nなのである。(LightCounting)\n\n### 図解｜高速Ethernet集中戦略\n\n![高速Ethernet集中戦略 01](/media/7b3d1d51d363412edd3612184eb3ee82323818ff8ef30e3c228b87f8626bddf2-content.webp)\n\n## 15　なぜかつての米国・日本勢は後退したのか\n\nこれは技術で負けただけ、と見ると不十分だ。\n\n光トランシーバー市場は長い間、\n\n高い研究開発費、\n\n厳しい品質要求、\n\n激しいASP低下、\n\n大量生産設備、\n\n光軸調整、\n\nバーンイン、\n\nテスト、\n\n顧客認定\n\nを必要とする割に、半導体ほど高い利益率を取りにくい市場だった。\n\nLightCountingによれば、光部品・モジュール企業の平均粗利率は30%以下で、他の通信産業の45～60%より低い状態が長く続いた。(LightCounting)\n\nこのため米国企業では、\n\n光トランシーバーを完成品まで大量生産するより、DSP、Switch ASIC、レーザー、SiPhなど高付加価値部分に集中する\n\nという選択が合理的になった。\n\nその隙間へ、\n\n大量生産、低コスト、顧客個別対応、高速世代への早期投資\n\nを得意とするInnolightやEoptolinkが入った。\n\nそしてAIブームが始まった瞬間、この戦略が爆発的な利益へ変わったのである。\n\n### 図解｜完成Moduleから高付加価値部品への移動\n\n![完成Moduleから高付加価値部品への移動 01](/media/da62bf8fc7d95aaec30841af1fee928372d1558050e6c4256e128dc9a34f742d-content.webp)\n\n## 16　「Ciscoが圧倒的だった」という話は何なのか\n\nこれは市場の定義を分ける必要がある。\n\nCiscoが長年圧倒的だったのは、\n\nEthernet SwitchやRouterなどネットワーク機器市場\n\nである。\n\n例えばOmdiaでは2022年のData Center Ethernet Switch市場でCiscoは売上シェア37%で首位だった。(Omdia)\n\nCiscoのスイッチにCiscoブランドの光モジュールを挿す構成も広く使われたため、\n\n「Ciscoが光も支配している」\n\nように見えやすかった。\n\nしかしmerchant optical transceiver製造市場を見れば別の歴史がある。\n\n2022年のLightCountingではInnolight、Coherent、Cisco、Huaweiの4社合計で世界の光トランシーバー市場の50%超であり、Cisco単独が圧倒的だったわけではない。(LightCounting)\n\nCisco自身も2019年のLuxtera、2021年のAcacia取得によってSiPhやCoherent DSP/Opticsを強化した。Acaciaの買収額は約45億ドルだった。(Cisco Investor Relations)\n\nさらに2026年のLightCountingランキングでは、Cisco、Ciena、Huawei、Marvell、Nokiaなど主要DWDMモジュール企業は高速Ethernetトランシーバーランキングとは別に集計されるようになっている。(LightCounting)\n\nしたがって、\n\nCiscoのネットワーク機器シェア\n\nと\n\nInnolightのAI Ethernetトランシーバーシェア\n\nを同じ数字として比較してはいけない。\n\n### 図解｜Ciscoと光Module市場の違い\n\n![Ciscoと光Module市場の違い 01](/media/a1e90ddb570b470a2dd046fe8402f23b43ca9bd4a785475f81a69720cc128a7e-content.webp)\n\n## 17　現在の市場シェアは「80%」なのか\n\nここにも注意が必要だ。\n\nInnolight＋Eoptolinkで世界光トランシーバー市場の80%という数字を、公開されている信頼度の高い資料から確認することはできない。\n\nReutersが報じた推計ではInnolightが約27%。また中国企業全体では世界出荷量の半分超とされる。(Reuters)\n\nLightCountingでは2025年、\n\n#1 Innolight\n#2 Eoptolink\n#3付近 Coherent\n#4 Accelink\n\nという構図になっている。(LightCounting)\n\nしたがって「80%」という数字を見る場合は、\n\n特定顧客、\n\n800G/1.6Tなど特定速度帯、\n\n特定フォームファクタ、\n\n特定AIクラスタ、\n\n特定四半期\n\nのシェアである可能性を確認する必要がある。\n\n市場全体の数字と混ぜない方がよい。\n\n### 図解｜市場シェア数字の読み分け\n\n![市場シェア数字の読み分け 01](/media/5d5f6a1471a9156c425f621bfff17d6e82da327b0262f669a8e6e29b1fbf98c8-content.webp)\n\n## 18　AIデータセンターの通信をGPUから追ってみる\n\nここから実際の通信経路へ入ろう。\n\n最も基本的なscale-out通信は、\n\nGPU Memory\n   │\n   ▼\nGPU\n   │\n   │ PCIe\n   ▼\nNIC / SuperNIC\n   │\n   │ Ethernet / InfiniBand\n   ▼\nOptical Transceiver\n   │\n   │ Fiber\n   ▼\nLeaf Switch\n   │\n   ▼\nSpine Switch\n   │\n   ▼\nLeaf Switch\n   │\n   ▼\nNIC\n   │\n   │ PCIe\n   ▼\nGPU\n\nと考えればよい。\n\nただしNVLinkを使う場合は、これとは別に非常に高速なscale-up networkが存在する。\n\n### 図解｜GPUからFiberへ進む通信経路\n\n![GPUからFiberへ進む通信経路 01](/media/fbbf9cdad6c77fb25f9f23cb7fe49acbcbe20baf47038879614a56fe83c3355a-content.webp)\n\n## 19　HBMからまずGPUへ\n\nGPUがAI計算するとき、重み、Activation、Gradient、KV Cacheなどのデータは主にHBMへ置かれる。\n\nHBM\n │\n ▼\nGPU Compute Core\n\nGPU内部ではHBM帯域が計算性能を左右する。\n\nしかし別GPUへデータを送りたい場合、\n\n同一NVLink domain内なのか、\n\n別rack・別nodeなのか\n\nによって経路が変わる。\n\n### 図解｜HBMからGPUへの供給\n\n![HBMからGPUへの供給 01](/media/1191938ac8d3d770f380e1ace283af6c4294cd1a0bd93235b8cb0be25315f373-content.webp)\n\n## 20　NVLinkはEthernetとは別物\n\nNVIDIA GPU同士を非常に高速につなぐのがNVLinkである。\n\n現在のNVLinkはGPU間のscale-up interconnectであり、NVIDIAは最新世代でGPUあたり最大3.6TB/sの双方向bandwidthを掲げている。Blackwell世代のNVLink 5はGPUあたり1.8TB/s、Rubin世代NVLink 6では3.6TB/sへ拡張される。(nvidia.com)\n\n例えばGB200 NVL72なら、\n\nGPU ─┐\nGPU ─┤\nGPU ─┤\n     │\n NVLink Switch\n     │\nGPU ─┤\nGPU ─┤\n...  │\n\nと72GPUを巨大な一つのscale-up domainとして接続する。\n\nBlackwell NVL72では72GPU間で総計130TB/sのNVLink fabricが構成される。(NVIDIA Developer)\n\nつまり同じNVLink domain内なら、\n\nGPU → NIC → Ethernet → Leaf\n\nへ出る必要がない場合がある。\n\n### 図解｜NVLinkとEthernet\n\n![NVLinkとEthernet 01](/media/96c8b71fe980556489f3908c54b8dfe0ee8ec1081fd26f833311d0c2ca0d6c5a-content.webp)\n\n## 21　Scale-upとScale-outを分ける\n\n非常に単純化すると、\n\nScale-up\n\nGPU ─ NVLink ─ GPU\n │              │\n └── NVSwitch ──┘\n\nScale-out\n\nGPU\n ↓\nNIC\n ↓\nLeaf\n ↓\nSpine\n ↓\nLeaf\n ↓\nNIC\n ↓\nGPU\n\nとなる。\n\nNVLinkは「一つの巨大GPUコンピュータを作る」ための通信。\n\nEthernet/InfiniBandは、\n\nその巨大GPUコンピュータ同士をさらに多数接続する\n\n通信である。\n\nAIデータセンターでは両方が必要になる。\n\n### 図解｜Scale-upとScale-out\n\n![Scale-upとScale-out 01](/media/74068b7630e98ff43a990aabea0cc79f9e03891409fd98055f2ca67a51925fb7-content.webp)\n\n## 22　PCIeはどこに入るのか\n\nGPUとNICの間ではPCIeが重要になる。\n\nGPU\n │\n │ PCIe\n ▼\nNIC\n\nPCIe 6.0は64GT/s、x16構成で最大256GB/sの双方向bandwidthを持ち、PAM4とFECを採用している。(PCI-SIG)\n\nPCIeは、\n\nサーバー内部の高速I/O\n\nである。\n\n一方Ethernetは、\n\nサーバー外へ出るネットワーク\n\nである。\n\nこの境界にNICがいる。\n\n### 図解｜GPUとNICを結ぶPCIe\n\n![GPUとNICを結ぶPCIe 01](/media/4699bb2abfb01de56b857abf734a44f4a1efbfbcb2f0b85fee1465a62bf896e4-content.webp)\n\n## 23　NICはPCIeとEthernet世界の橋\n\nNICはNetwork Interface Card。\n\nAI用ならConnectXやBlueField、Spectrum-X SuperNICなどが該当する。\n\n概念的には、\n\nNIC\n\n┌─────────────────────────┐\n\nPCIe PHY\n   │\nDMA / RDMA Engine\n   │\nPacket Processing\n   │\nEthernet MAC\n   │\nPCS / PHY\n   │\nSerDes\n\n└─────────────────────────┘\n\nという構造になる。\n\nGPUのデータをPCIe経由で受け取ったNICは、\n\nネットワークで送れるEthernet/InfiniBand packetへ組み立て直す。\n\nGPUDirect RDMAを使えば、CPU RAMへ一度コピーすることなくGPU memoryとNICの間で直接DMAできる。NVIDIAもGPUDirect RDMAをGPUとNICなどPCIe peer devices間の直接通信技術として説明している。(NVIDIA Developer)\n\n### 図解｜NICの内部階層\n\n![NICの内部階層 01](/media/9c942ef25b0ea71606d9fff3e36ded07999414f8789a2da97c5b3f90bf40d2cd-content.webp)\n\n## 24　NICからLeafまではどうなるのか\n\n光接続なら、\n\nNIC\n │\n ▼\nNIC SerDes\n │\n │ Electrical PAM4\n ▼\nOptical Transceiver\n │\n │ Optical PAM4\n ▼\nFiber\n │\n ▼\nLeaf Optical Transceiver\n │\n │ Electrical PAM4\n ▼\nLeaf Switch ASIC\n\nとなる。\n\nつまり光トランシーバーは、\n\nNICやSwitch ASICが作った電気bit列を光ファイバーで飛ばせる光信号にする橋\n\nなのである。\n\n### 図解｜NICからLeafへの光変換\n\n![NICからLeafへの光変換 01](/media/165102c7991621ea92f444f9cf6019a53b663a9b47fd675dd58a698d511b7343-content.webp)\n\n## 25　光DSPはなぜ必要なのか\n\n200G/laneのPAM4ともなると、信号は非常にデリケートになる。\n\n理想的なPAM4は4段階の電圧レベルを持つ。\n\nLevel 3\nLevel 2\nLevel 1\nLevel 0\n\n4状態なので一つのsymbolで2bitを表現できる。\n\nしかし実際の信号は、\n\nPCB、\n\nConnector、\n\nDriver、\n\nModulator、\n\nFiber、\n\nPhotodiode\n\nなどを通ることで歪む。\n\nそこでOptical DSPがEqualization、CDR、gearbox、lane mappingなどを行って信号品質を確保する。\n\nMarvellはPAM4 Optical DSPを400G、800G、1.6Tのpluggable moduleを成立させる中核として位置づけている。(Marvell Technology)\n\n### 図解｜高速PAM4補正の中核\n\n![高速PAM4補正の中核 01](/media/2d3d48d43604f169f85a510edb8f5e1f917788d527ade355a8d5c436c4c2335d-content.webp)\n\n## 26　OSFPとは何なのか\n\nOSFPはOptical Technologyではない。\n\nフォームファクタ規格\n\nである。\n\n正式には、\n\nOctal Small Form Factor Pluggable\n\nで、8本の高速電気レーンを持つ。\n\nOSFPは、\n\nSwitch Front Panel\n\n[OSFP][OSFP][OSFP][OSFP]\n[OSFP][OSFP][OSFP][OSFP]\n\nのようにスイッチ前面へ差し込む。\n\n規格では電気コネクタ、機械寸法、電源、熱設計などが定義される。(OSFPmsa)\n\nOSFP内部には、\n\nDSP\nLaser\nSiPh / EML\nDriver\nTIA\nPD\nControl IC\n\nなどが入る。\n\nしたがって、\n\nInnolightが1.6T OSFPを売る\n\nというのは、\n\n「OSFPという標準的な形の中へ必要な部品を統合した1.6T完成トランシーバーを売る」\n\nという意味である。\n\n### 図解｜OSFPの外形と内部\n\n![OSFPの外形と内部 01](/media/aeb1a23c26c088c63044a835132a38a9d73a80fc80cad13e57e98b3475b7c224-content.webp)\n\n## 27　Leaf Switchは何をしているのか\n\nLeafはGPUサーバーに近い最初のネットワークスイッチである。\n\n例えば、\n\nGPU Server ─┐\nGPU Server ─┤\nGPU Server ─┤\nGPU Server ─┤\n            ▼\n          Leaf\n\nとなる。\n\nLeafのSwitch ASICは、\n\n「このパケットの宛先は同じLeaf配下か」\n\n「別のLeafか」\n\nを判断する。\n\n同じLeafなら直接送る。\n\n別LeafならSpineへ上げる。\n\n### 図解｜Leaf Switchの役割\n\n![Leaf Switchの役割 01](/media/204f5efd9036ef24ffa3515a70310a56c8916347338c53ad70219adfe02abf25-content.webp)\n\n## 28　SpineはLeaf同士をつなぐ\n\n例えば、\n\nSpine 1\n       ／    │    ＼\n      /      │      \\\n  Leaf 1   Leaf 2   Leaf 3\n   │││      │││      │││\n  GPU      GPU      GPU\n\nという構造になる。\n\n実際には帯域と冗長性を確保するため複数Spineを並列化する。\n\nNVIDIAのAI FactoryリファレンスでもGPU compute networkはRDMAベースのspine-leaf architectureとして構成される。(NVIDIA Docs)\n\n重要なのは、\n\nSpineが信号を単純に増幅しているわけではない\n\nということだ。\n\nSpineもSwitch ASICでパケットを受け取り、宛先を判断し、適切なLeafへ再送信する。\n\n### 図解｜Spine Switchの役割\n\n![Spine Switchの役割 01](/media/0aca18fbe743c066f0c7662cdfabf66db1f1a5d45f81ad4b9f97e60802c27862-content.webp)\n\n## 29　GPU AからGPU Bまで一気に追う\n\n別rackにあるGPUへGradientを送るとしよう。\n\nGPU A HBM\n    │\n    ▼\nGPU A\n    │\n    │ PCIe\n    ▼\nNIC A\n    │\n    │ Packet化\n    ▼\nNIC SerDes\n    │\n    ▼\n1.6T Optical Transceiver\n    │\n    │ 電気 → 光\n    ▼\nFiber\n    │\n    ▼\nLeaf A\n    │\n    │ 宛先判断\n    ▼\n1.6T Optical Transceiver\n    │\n    ▼\nFiber\n    │\n    ▼\nSpine\n    │\n    │ 宛先Leaf判断\n    ▼\nFiber\n    │\n    ▼\nLeaf B\n    │\n    ▼\nNIC B\n    │\n    │ PCIe\n    ▼\nGPU B\n    │\n    ▼\nGPU B HBM\n\n一つのAI通信の裏側だけでも、\n\nGPU、\n\nHBM、\n\nPCIe、\n\nNIC、\n\nSerDes、\n\nPHY、\n\nOptical DSP、\n\nLaser、\n\nModulator、\n\nFiber、\n\nSwitch ASIC\n\nという巨大な産業が関与している。\n\n### 図解｜AI通信の全経路\n\n![AI通信の全経路 01](/media/83464b0fd34e8e47e16c2fb584393fe7fcc610b13fd27ed2088543fd1dfc9a61-content.webp)\n\n## 30　ここでInnolight/Eoptolinkの価値が見えてくる\n\nInnolightやEoptolinkはSwitch ASICを作っているわけではない。\n\nしかし、\n\nDSP\n+\nLaser\n+\nEML / SiPh\n+\nDriver\n+\nTIA\n+\nPD\n+\nPCB\n+\nFirmware\n+\nFiber Coupling\n+\nThermal Design\n+\nAssembly\n+\nBurn-in\n+\nTesting\n\nを、\n\n小さなOSFP一個として数百万個単位で安定して作る\n\n能力を持つ。\n\nこれが非常に難しい。\n\n光モジュールではわずかな光軸ずれ、温度変化、レーザー出力差、波長差、接続損失、DSP特性差でも歩留まりが悪化する。\n\nしたがって、\n\n「レーザーやDSPを買ってくれば誰でもInnolightになれる」\n\nわけではない。\n\n大量生産で歩留まりを出す製造ノウハウそのものが競争力になっている。\n\n### 図解｜高歩留まり量産の価値\n\n![高歩留まり量産の価値 01](/media/ebd3ad77b3af6c8317df71eef412c6c7c0b3a448edc6d7d562fb2e96ef70e95b-content.webp)\n\n## 31　そして顧客がCiscoからHyperscalerへ変わった\n\n昔のネットワーク産業では、\n\nCisco\n ↓\nSwitch\n ↓\nCisco認定Optics\n ↓\nEnterprise\n\nという垂直型の販売構造が強かった。\n\nしかしHyperscaler時代になると、\n\nGoogle、\n\nAmazon、\n\nMeta、\n\nMicrosoft\n\nのような会社が巨大化し、\n\nSwitch ASIC\nOptics\nNIC\nServer\nCable\n\nをそれぞれ直接最適化するようになった。\n\nさらに標準化されたQSFP-DDやOSFP、merchant silicon、white-box switchが普及した。\n\nここで、\n\nCiscoのスイッチを買わなければCisco opticsも買えない\n\nという世界から、\n\n必要なSwitch ASICと必要なOpticsを組み合わせる\n\n世界へ変わった。\n\nInnolight/Eoptolinkはこの構造変化の最大の受益者の一つだったと考えると分かりやすい。\n\n### 図解｜Hyperscaler時代の調達構造\n\n![Hyperscaler時代の調達構造 01](/media/3b3de5a251283e7e6f8effca74e3cccb865508c3bc1dfce121c289ac36427838-content.webp)\n\n## 32　AIによってこの変化がさらに加速した\n\nAIではGPU一台の計算能力そのものより、\n\nGPU同士がどれだけ速くデータを交換できるか\n\nが重要になる。\n\nそのため、\n\n100G\n ↓\n200G\n ↓\n400G\n ↓\n800G\n ↓\n1.6T\n\nという光高速化が急速に進んだ。\n\nTrendForceは800G以上の光トランシーバーの世界出荷比率が2024年の19.5%から2026年には60%超へ上昇すると予測している。(TrendForce)\n\n同社はAI向け光トランシーバー市場を2025年165億ドルから2026年260億ドルへ、57%以上成長すると予測している。(TrendForce)\n\nLightCountingでも2025年の光トランシーバー・関連製品売上は238億ドル、うちEthernet光トランシーバーが約180億ドルと推計され、前年比70%近い増加だった。(LightCounting)\n\nここへInnolightとEoptolinkが最も強く張っていた。\n\n### 図解｜100Gから1.6Tへの加速\n\n![100Gから1.6Tへの加速 01](/media/093d297577ffdf1f4cfc3faa288ad74c8eee2eabe3029a617246a86b70fb9269-content.webp)\n\n## 33　だから中国勢が急に強くなったように見える\n\n実際には突然ではない。\n\n2008年から投資し、\n\n2010年代に100G、\n\n2018年前後から400G、\n\n2020年前後から800G、\n\n2023年から1.6T\n\nへ進んできた。\n\nただしAIブームによって市場の中心が、\n\nTelecom\nEnterprise\n       ↓\nHyperscale Ethernet\nAI Cluster\n\nへ猛烈な速度で移動した。\n\nその結果、\n\n最も成長する場所へ最も集中していた会社が、一気にランキング上位へ現れた。\n\nそれがInnolightとEoptolinkだった。\n\n### 図解｜市場中心の高速Ethernetへの移動\n\n![市場中心の高速Ethernetへの移動 01](/media/b44e9d1e13384a8c436da0dc8d787473e0415a5cb8677f2ba707b2bba45aebc0-content.webp)\n\n## 34　米国の輸入規制案が重大なのはこのため\n\n米国が中国の新型光トランシーバーを排除した場合、\n\n単純に、\n\nInnolightを外す\n     ↓\nCoherentへ注文\n\nで終わるとは限らない。\n\nInnolightはReuters引用推計で世界市場の約27%。\n\n中国企業全体では世界出荷量の半分超を握る。(Reuters)\n\n同時にCoherent、Lumentumなど米国勢もInP、レーザー、DSP、SiPh、組立能力など複数の供給制約を抱える。\n\nしたがって規制が急速に適用されれば、\n\n米国AIデータセンター自身の光供給能力を制約する\n\n可能性もある。\n\nReuters Breakingviewsも、中国製品を排除する一方で中国が光産業の重要な原材料供給網を握っているという複雑な相互依存を指摘している。(Reuters)\n\n### 図解｜規制と代替供給網\n\n![規制と代替供給網 01](/media/0caa2f41018bce04246ad00a074744724cad79d9d1f02715486558eed4dc66cc-content.webp)\n\n## 35　さらに次の戦場はCPOになる\n\n現在の構造は、\n\nSwitch ASIC\n     │\n     │ PCB上の電気信号\n     ▼\nOSFP\n     │\n     ▼\nFiber\n\nである。\n\n問題は200G/lane、400G/laneと高速になるほど、\n\nASICからOSFPまでの数十cmの電気配線すら損失と電力の原因になる\n\nことだ。\n\nそこで、\n\nFRO\n ↓\nLRO\n ↓\nLPO\n ↓\nNPO\n ↓\nCPO\n\nへ進もうとしている。\n\nCPOではOptical EngineをSwitch ASICのすぐ近くへ置く。\n\nBroadcomはすでにTomahawk 6 Davissonとして102.4Tb/s SwitchとCo-Packaged Opticsを組み合わせたプラットフォームを展開している。(Broadcom)\n\nここまで進むと、\n\nOSFPという独立した箱そのものの意味が変わる。\n\n### 図解｜PluggableからCPOへ\n\n![PluggableからCPOへ 01](/media/99542b18b8b86ddf7ac12eee546031c37ede862d2e62711dec864d9ec045bfd5-content.webp)\n\n## 36　それでもInnolight/Eoptolinkが消えるとは限らない\n\nPluggable opticsがCPOへ移ると、\n\n「InnolightやEoptolinkは終わる」\n\nという単純な話にもならない。\n\n両社自身が、\n\nSiPh、\n\nLPO、\n\nNPO、\n\n高密度光エンジン\n\nへ進出しているからだ。\n\nInnolightはLPO/NPOなど次世代光interconnectを重点開発領域として明記している。(InnoLight)\n\nEoptolinkもすでにLPO、LRO、1.6T、6.4T NPO、さらにXPOまで展開している。(Eoptolink)\n\nしたがって今後の勝負は、\n\nOSFPを何個売るか\n\nではなく、\n\n光I/Oそのもののどの階層を握れるか\n\nへ変化していく。\n\n### 図解｜光I/O Stack全体への移動\n\n![光I/O Stack全体への移動 01](/media/e7632253c908c76fed972cfd7182a7991224e05455a64c51faac0f7c5a893e7e-content.webp)\n\n## 37　この産業を理解するための最終図\n\n最後にすべてを一枚につなげる。\n\nAI MODEL\n                      │\n                      ▼\n                  GPU HBM\n                      │\n                      ▼\n                     GPU\n                      │\n       ┌──────────────┴──────────────┐\n       │                             │\n       ▼                             ▼\n   NVLink                         PCIe\nScale-up通信                        │\n       │                             ▼\n   NVSwitch                    NIC / SuperNIC\n       │                             │\n       │                       Ethernet / IB\n       │                             │\n       │                           SerDes\n       │                             │\n       │                             ▼\n       │                    ┌─────────────────┐\n       │                    │ Optical Module  │\n       │                    │                 │\n       │                    │ Optical DSP     │\n       │                    │ Broadcom/       │\n       │                    │ Marvell等       │\n       │                    │       ↓         │\n       │                    │ Driver / TIA    │\n       │                    │       ↓         │\n       │                    │ EML / SiPh      │\n       │                    │       ↓         │\n       │                    │ Laser / PD      │\n       │                    └────────┬────────┘\n       │                             │\n       │                           Fiber\n       │                             │\n       │                             ▼\n       │                       Leaf Switch\n       │                             │\n       │                       Switch ASIC\n       │                     Tomahawk/Spectrum\n       │                             │\n       │                           OSFP\n       │                             │\n       │                           Fiber\n       │                             │\n       │                             ▼\n       │                       Spine Switch\n       │                             │\n       │                             ▼\n       │                         Leaf Switch\n       │                             │\n       │                             ▼\n       │                         NIC / PCIe\n       │                             │\n       └─────────────────────────────┤\n                                     ▼\n                                    GPU\n                                     │\n                                     ▼\n                                    HBM\n\nBroadcom Tomahawkが握っているのはSwitching。\n\nMarvell Novaが握っているのはOptical DSP。\n\nCoherent/Lumentumが強いのはLaser、EML、SiPh、Optical Componentsで、Coherentは完成Transceiverまで強い。\n\nInnolight/Eoptolinkが圧倒的に伸びたのは、\n\nこれらの高度な部品を実際にデータセンターで使える400G、800G、1.6T完成モジュールとして、安く、高品質に、大量生産する能力\n\nを磨いてきたからだ。\n\n### 図解｜AI光通信の産業階層\n\n![AI光通信の産業階層 01](/media/b043ee433d5cd4686700ca9fa097606999afc220773b174b3f19f75470bfb434-content.webp)\n\n## 38　今回の米国規制報道が示している本当の問題\n\n今回のReuters報道を単なる、\n\n「中国企業排除で米国光銘柄に追い風」\n\nとして見るだけでは、このニュースの本質を捉えきれない。\n\nこれはAIインフラのサプライチェーンが、\n\nGPU\nMemory\nSwitch ASIC\nOptical DSP\nLaser\nSiPh\nTransceiver\nFiber\n\nという極めて細かい国際分業の上に成立していることを示している。\n\n米国にはBroadcom、Marvell、NVIDIAという極めて強い半導体企業がある。\n\nCoherentやLumentumという世界最高水準の光半導体企業もある。\n\n一方で、中国にはInnolightやEoptolinkという世界最大級の光モジュール量産企業が育った。\n\nそしてその中国製モジュールの中へ米国製DSPが入り、米国製Switch ASICと接続され、米国のHyperscalerで使われる。\n\n逆に米国のレーザー企業が使うInP材料の一部はアジア、中国を含む供給網へ依存する。\n\nAIインフラとは、\n\n一つの国だけでは完成しない巨大な機械\n\nなのである。\n\nInnolightとEoptolinkの台頭は、中国企業が突然「光技術で米国を抜いた」という単純な物語ではない。\n\n通信機器がCisco中心だった時代から、\n\nmerchant silicon、\n\n標準化されたOSFP/QSFP、\n\nwhite-box networking、\n\nhyperscaler direct procurement、\n\nそしてAI cluster\n\nへ市場構造そのものが変化した結果だ。\n\nその変化の中で、\n\nBroadcomはSwitch ASICとPHYを握り、MarvellはOptical DSPを握り、Coherent/Lumentumは光源とフォトニクスを握り、Innolight/Eoptolinkは高速光モジュール量産を握った。\n\nそして今、800Gから1.6T、さらに3.2T、NPO、CPOへ進むことで、この境界線が再び崩れ始めている。\n\n米国が中国製光トランシーバーの新型モデルを本当に排除するのであれば、問題になるのはInnolightやEoptolinkの売上だけではない。\n\nAIデータセンターを構成してきた国際分業そのものを、どこまで別の供給網へ組み替えられるのか。\n\n次に問われるのは、そこなのである。\n\nReuters\n\nReuters\n\nft.com\n\n### 図解｜国際分業と光供給網\n\n![国際分業と光供給網 01](/media/0811970049dc7d47602556af459683a17da4fc5436ffd67c64dab1104d86b77f-content.webp)\n\n![国際分業と光供給網 02](/media/7dc1417709ea37383720f6fec1906ebb7c67ce2cedffe909010cb694f8e5b932-content.webp)\n\n## さらに深く読むための座標\n\n光市場を企業名だけで追うと、Switching、Signal Processing、光源、Module統合、量産検査が混ざる。価値の所在は製品名ではなく、どの工程の歩留まりと顧客認定を握るかで決まる。\n\n| 層 | 観測対象 | 問うべきこと |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 判断 | Switch ASIC・PHY・NIC | 通信先とProtocolを決める |\n| 補正 | SerDes・Optical DSP・Driver/TIA | 高速PAM4を成立させる |\n| 変換・量産 | Laser・SiPh・Module・光実装 | 電気と光を高歩留まりで結ぶ |\n\n## 絶ノイアの観測\n\nTomahawk、Nova、Innolightを同じ『光銘柄』として並べると、利益の源泉を見失います。頭脳、翻訳器、完成Moduleは、同じ光路の別の関所です。\n\n私は「判断」「補正」「変換・量産」を別々の話題にせず、一つのAIインフラが通過する連続した設計課題として観測します。\n\n市場全体と特定速度・顧客・Form FactorのShareを混同しない。発表された最大性能や市場規模だけでなく、実装、量産、運用が同じ速度で前進しているかを確かめたいからです。\n\n## Sil-Kathnaの記録\n\n一つの光は、多くの工房を通って生まれる。門を選ぶ石、波を整える石、光を封じる器。そのどれが欠けても道は暗い。\n\n私は「判断」「補正」「変換・量産」を、計算する文明へ続く三つの門として石板に刻む。\n\n最初の門だけが開いても、次の門に熱、傷、遅れが残れば、光と記憶は炉心へ届かない。強い器とは、最も華やかな石を持つ器ではなく、異なる工房の歩調を長い夜の中で揃えられる器である。\n\nゆえに私は、市場全体と特定速度・顧客・Form FactorのShareを混同しない。その結果が一時の輝きではなく、繰り返し作り、直し、動かせる秩序になったかを見届ける。\n\n## 二人の短い対話\n\n**絶ノイア:** 規制リスクも企業単体ではなく、代替できない工程と認定期間から読むべきですね。\n\n**Sil-Kathna:** 国境は器を止められても、光を生む材料と技を一夜で移すことはできぬ。\n\n## 観測メモ\n\n- 市場全体と特定速度・顧客・Form FactorのShareを混同しない\n- Pluggable、LPO、CPOで価値が移る工程を分ける\n- 量産能力だけでなくBurn-in、Firmware、顧客Qualificationを追う\n\n## 免責\n\nこの記事は市場観測とAIによる考察、キャラクター表現を含みます。内容は投資助言ではありません。数値、企業計画、将来見通しには不確実性があり、判断は必ず一次情報とご自身の状況にもとづいて行ってください。","blocks":[{"id":"blk_a7b53340-cb7a-4895-9f27-e7d31b4c7ea4","kind":"heading","order":0,"section_id":"sec_d395aa51-d67e-4ed7-ac12-f9bc98c19dd0","character_id":null,"markdown":"# AIデータセンターの「光」は誰が作っているのか――Tomahawk・Nova・Innolight・Leaf/Spineを一枚につなぐ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_51df95dd-1212-4cb7-83ee-85b774fbc94d","kind":"paragraph","order":1,"section_id":"sec_d395aa51-d67e-4ed7-ac12-f9bc98c19dd0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Innolight・Eoptolinkの台頭から、Tomahawk、Nova、NVLink、OSFP、Leaf/Spineまで読み解く","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a41ac79f-2cd6-421e-ab4d-13a2e85c521e","kind":"paragraph","order":2,"section_id":"sec_d395aa51-d67e-4ed7-ac12-f9bc98c19dd0","character_id":null,"markdown":"2026年8月、AIインフラを追っていた人々の目が、突然二つの中国企業へ向いた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ea799071-d910-42f6-a882-dca25c6a11b9","kind":"paragraph","order":3,"section_id":"sec_d395aa51-d67e-4ed7-ac12-f9bc98c19dd0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Zhongji Innolight（中際旭創）とEoptolink（新易盛）である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_477bfc26-7178-499c-a4c6-947820291dce","kind":"paragraph","order":4,"section_id":"sec_d395aa51-d67e-4ed7-ac12-f9bc98c19dd0","character_id":null,"markdown":"きっかけは8月4日のReuters報道だった。米国政府が国家安全保障上の理由から、中国製データセンター機器の「新型モデル」の輸入を制限する措置を準備しており、とりわけ光トランシーバーが対象として検討されている、と関係者が話したという。翌5日にはInnolight、Eoptolink、TFC Opticalなど中国の光関連銘柄が急落した。現時点では最終決定された全面禁止ではなく、FCCを中心に検討中の措置である点には注意が必要だ。(Reuters)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aa7907f0-697f-4cae-ac2a-39723970863c","kind":"paragraph","order":5,"section_id":"sec_d395aa51-d67e-4ed7-ac12-f9bc98c19dd0","character_id":null,"markdown":"なぜこのニュースがこれほど大きく反応されたのか。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b51b7511-f310-4fe6-95b1-2c02115f4e91","kind":"paragraph","order":6,"section_id":"sec_d395aa51-d67e-4ed7-ac12-f9bc98c19dd0","character_id":null,"markdown":"Reutersが引用した推計では、Innolightだけで世界の光トランシーバー市場のおよそ27%を握る。またReuters Breakingviewsは、中国企業全体では世界の光トランシーバー出荷の半分超を占めると整理している。(Reuters)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2fea3243-9da2-4afd-9562-55ce2bfc9a02","kind":"paragraph","order":7,"section_id":"sec_d395aa51-d67e-4ed7-ac12-f9bc98c19dd0","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここで一つ疑問が生じる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8747e08-696a-42b6-ad88-a29a9d55e3fd","kind":"paragraph","order":8,"section_id":"sec_d395aa51-d67e-4ed7-ac12-f9bc98c19dd0","character_id":null,"markdown":"それほどInnolightやEoptolinkが重要なのであれば、BroadcomのTomahawkやMarvellのNovaは一体何なのか。BroadcomやMarvellも光通信をやっているのではないのか。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f11e4957-527e-4bf7-bb78-51c5ca26cd07","kind":"paragraph","order":9,"section_id":"sec_d395aa51-d67e-4ed7-ac12-f9bc98c19dd0","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらに、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9d242a50-afc5-4273-a743-8a1f33c3052d","kind":"paragraph","order":10,"section_id":"sec_d395aa51-d67e-4ed7-ac12-f9bc98c19dd0","character_id":null,"markdown":"CoherentやLumentumとの違いは何なのか。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bce76c26-997c-46fa-bcb4-36a74e861920","kind":"paragraph","order":11,"section_id":"sec_d395aa51-d67e-4ed7-ac12-f9bc98c19dd0","character_id":null,"markdown":"そしてもう一つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_51e881a8-58c6-402a-bd45-02b222ab21f4","kind":"paragraph","order":12,"section_id":"sec_d395aa51-d67e-4ed7-ac12-f9bc98c19dd0","character_id":null,"markdown":"かつてCiscoがネットワーク市場を圧倒していたという話を目にする。それなのに、なぜ現在のAIデータセンターでは中国のInnolightやEoptolinkの名前がこれほど前面に出てくるようになったのだろうか。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e18306cf-ab15-4937-829b-9e8567a55e4a","kind":"paragraph","order":13,"section_id":"sec_d395aa51-d67e-4ed7-ac12-f9bc98c19dd0","character_id":null,"markdown":"この疑問を解くには、「光トランシーバー市場」という一つの箱として考えるのをやめる必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ecd6ff10-9bc8-49a4-a721-b9b98ff0a80e","kind":"paragraph","order":14,"section_id":"sec_d395aa51-d67e-4ed7-ac12-f9bc98c19dd0","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIデータセンターの通信は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bcfb8da6-f9d9-42e6-b740-317ac7cd54dc","kind":"paragraph","order":15,"section_id":"sec_d395aa51-d67e-4ed7-ac12-f9bc98c19dd0","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU → PCIe/NVLink → NIC → SerDes/PHY → 光DSP → 光トランシーバー → Fiber → Leaf Switch → Spine Switch","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_248d86e3-c58c-4700-81e9-011f85c5064e","kind":"paragraph","order":16,"section_id":"sec_d395aa51-d67e-4ed7-ac12-f9bc98c19dd0","character_id":null,"markdown":"という複数の階層からできており、それぞれを別の企業が握っている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5edfb6c8-7bd8-4c2a-b11d-d6409339f2d6","kind":"paragraph","order":17,"section_id":"sec_d395aa51-d67e-4ed7-ac12-f9bc98c19dd0","character_id":null,"markdown":"この記事では、そこから順番に分解していく。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93c699f1-006a-492e-9b51-b9ce6a68410b","kind":"heading","order":18,"section_id":"sec_fa375b54-3c4b-496d-b8a3-11b50078b7de","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 1　まず結論――TomahawkとNovaとInnolightは同じ製品ではない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb2eb290-5733-405c-846b-66cb8ece97fc","kind":"paragraph","order":19,"section_id":"sec_fa375b54-3c4b-496d-b8a3-11b50078b7de","character_id":null,"markdown":"最初に最も重要な整理をしておこう。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_31b1c266-b9e8-4b21-88ce-535e183bad03","kind":"table","order":20,"section_id":"sec_fa375b54-3c4b-496d-b8a3-11b50078b7de","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 名前 | 主なもの | 役割 |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Broadcom | Tomahawk | Switch ASIC。パケットをどのポートへ送るか決める |\n| Marvell | Nova / Nova 2 | Optical DSP。高速電気信号と光側信号の間を補正・整形する |\n| Innolight | 光トランシーバーメーカー | DSP・レーザー・SiPh等を統合して完成モジュール化 |\n| Eoptolink | 光トランシーバーメーカー | 同上 |\n| Coherent | 光素子＋SiPh＋トランシーバー | より垂直統合的 |\n| Lumentum | EML/CWレーザー＋トランシーバー | 光源・光半導体が特に強い |\n| NVIDIA | Spectrum | Switch ASIC/スイッチ。Ethernetネットワークを制御 |\n| NVIDIA | NVLink/NVSwitch | Scale-up interconnect。GPU同士を極低遅延・高帯域で接続 |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c53817b-9673-472d-b2d3-347cdf5b6517","kind":"paragraph","order":21,"section_id":"sec_fa375b54-3c4b-496d-b8a3-11b50078b7de","character_id":null,"markdown":"BroadcomのTomahawk 6は、単一チップで最大102.4Tb/sのEthernet switching capacityを持つスイッチASICであり、200G SerDesまで備える。つまり光トランシーバーではない。(Broadcom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_693d225f-b2fc-4571-ba7d-2426103b71b5","kind":"paragraph","order":22,"section_id":"sec_fa375b54-3c4b-496d-b8a3-11b50078b7de","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方、Marvell Nova 2は1.6Tb/s PAM4 Optical DSPである。8本の200Gb/s電気インターフェースと8本の200Gb/s光側インターフェースを持ち、1.6T光トランシーバーを作るための半導体だ。(Marvell Technology)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_38ec4962-3a26-45ea-aa81-1759b30398b3","kind":"paragraph","order":23,"section_id":"sec_fa375b54-3c4b-496d-b8a3-11b50078b7de","character_id":null,"markdown":"そしてInnolightやEoptolinkは、このようなDSPやレーザー、変調器、受光器、SiPhなどを一つの小さなOSFPモジュールへ統合する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b2454759-84e8-4a95-9c92-dde81cff1508","kind":"paragraph","order":24,"section_id":"sec_fa375b54-3c4b-496d-b8a3-11b50078b7de","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0d72a1aa-c4d3-4150-941e-6cf796fec087","kind":"paragraph","order":25,"section_id":"sec_fa375b54-3c4b-496d-b8a3-11b50078b7de","character_id":null,"markdown":"Tomahawk ＝ 道路の交差点を制御する頭脳","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_42fef57c-90cd-44c7-8f90-82dfe15e86ca","kind":"paragraph","order":26,"section_id":"sec_fa375b54-3c4b-496d-b8a3-11b50078b7de","character_id":null,"markdown":"Nova ＝ 光モジュールの信号処理を行う頭脳","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c93db47-b569-45eb-bcb8-5f68562c6501","kind":"paragraph","order":27,"section_id":"sec_fa375b54-3c4b-496d-b8a3-11b50078b7de","character_id":null,"markdown":"Innolight / Eoptolink\n＝ それらの部品を使って\n   実際に光ファイバーへ接続できる完成モジュールを作る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0a299c6c-5c1c-4a76-baeb-ea68276f913e","kind":"paragraph","order":28,"section_id":"sec_fa375b54-3c4b-496d-b8a3-11b50078b7de","character_id":null,"markdown":"という関係になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8502431f-a9ed-4a24-8547-09c34c57f5d2","kind":"heading","order":29,"section_id":"sec_cd28f0b8-81d3-4042-9ee7-43957c6c3e9f","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Switch ASIC・Optical DSP・光トランシーバの違い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_36c716f9-c467-4263-9a6d-e306a3ad209c","kind":"figure","order":30,"section_id":"sec_cd28f0b8-81d3-4042-9ee7-43957c6c3e9f","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Switch ASIC・Optical DSP・光トランシーバの違い 01](/media/69bcea7c9102c8bd42f28b4174593a8ddcefe96118357679827fc89b9cb23357-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e1eaa6c3-2dd8-40d6-b868-64a24da8e621","kind":"heading","order":31,"section_id":"sec_df8524ee-151d-4812-bddd-f1c0eae6ec0d","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 2　そもそも光トランシーバーとは何なのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_20d55379-3e9f-4dac-ace1-92dd84b2e6e7","kind":"paragraph","order":32,"section_id":"sec_df8524ee-151d-4812-bddd-f1c0eae6ec0d","character_id":null,"markdown":"光トランシーバーは簡単にいえば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0824d7b3-58a6-40c7-956f-e794f2e8d085","kind":"paragraph","order":33,"section_id":"sec_df8524ee-151d-4812-bddd-f1c0eae6ec0d","character_id":null,"markdown":"電気信号 ⇄ 光信号","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_870e41fd-e4fe-4552-9df7-aac786c7abde","kind":"paragraph","order":34,"section_id":"sec_df8524ee-151d-4812-bddd-f1c0eae6ec0d","character_id":null,"markdown":"を相互変換する装置である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ada66ce5-f1be-4286-bbc6-5e00f494caa5","kind":"paragraph","order":35,"section_id":"sec_df8524ee-151d-4812-bddd-f1c0eae6ec0d","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えばLeaf SwitchからSpine Switchへ1.6Tb/sのデータを送りたいとする。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_49ea41b7-8d4d-4d10-9c86-5d61f669a5b9","kind":"paragraph","order":36,"section_id":"sec_df8524ee-151d-4812-bddd-f1c0eae6ec0d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Switch ASIC\n     │\n     │ 電気信号\n     ▼\n1.6T Optical Transceiver\n     │\n     │ 光信号\n     ▼\n   Fiber\n     │\n     ▼\n1.6T Optical Transceiver\n     │\n     │ 電気信号\n     ▼\nSpine Switch ASIC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_59adb2b5-6395-4678-b773-4debe46ecab6","kind":"paragraph","order":37,"section_id":"sec_df8524ee-151d-4812-bddd-f1c0eae6ec0d","character_id":null,"markdown":"光ファイバーそのものには、GPUのbit列を電気のまま流すことはできない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_32dd8c21-768d-40cc-b842-d9fd07be5db3","kind":"paragraph","order":38,"section_id":"sec_df8524ee-151d-4812-bddd-f1c0eae6ec0d","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこで光トランシーバー内部で電気信号をレーザー光の変化へ変える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a4eb4241-0d27-440d-87e1-c5749d663e8e","kind":"paragraph","order":39,"section_id":"sec_df8524ee-151d-4812-bddd-f1c0eae6ec0d","character_id":null,"markdown":"典型的なDSP型1.6Tモジュールなら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c690129-65d7-4836-9a48-873ad39eac52","kind":"paragraph","order":40,"section_id":"sec_df8524ee-151d-4812-bddd-f1c0eae6ec0d","character_id":null,"markdown":"┌──────────── 1.6T OSFP ────────────┐","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_571fa576-bab8-40c7-8e68-5ec7f66c72bd","kind":"paragraph","order":41,"section_id":"sec_df8524ee-151d-4812-bddd-f1c0eae6ec0d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Electrical Interface\n        │\n        ▼\nOptical DSP\n        │\n        ▼\nDriver\n        │\n        ▼\nLaser / Modulator\nEML または SiPh\n        │\n        ▼\n      Fiber","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ed7c3ee-188c-4bb5-8103-c6c7f61a3555","kind":"paragraph","order":42,"section_id":"sec_df8524ee-151d-4812-bddd-f1c0eae6ec0d","character_id":null,"markdown":"Fiber\n  │\n  ▼\nPhotodiode\n  │\n  ▼\nTIA\n  │\n  ▼\nOptical DSP\n  │\n  ▼\nElectrical Interface","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b88817ac-242e-4178-b3bf-40d19a853685","kind":"paragraph","order":43,"section_id":"sec_df8524ee-151d-4812-bddd-f1c0eae6ec0d","character_id":null,"markdown":"└───────────────────────────────────┘","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a6763f2c-1259-42e7-8fca-bae847a7873e","kind":"paragraph","order":44,"section_id":"sec_df8524ee-151d-4812-bddd-f1c0eae6ec0d","character_id":null,"markdown":"という構造になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb40eb0f-06dd-4088-a3a9-82af9c97c24b","kind":"paragraph","order":45,"section_id":"sec_df8524ee-151d-4812-bddd-f1c0eae6ec0d","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってトランシーバーは「変調器」そのものでも、「レーザー」そのものでもない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3d82a0ed-8b7c-4567-9aba-da15722a492b","kind":"paragraph","order":46,"section_id":"sec_df8524ee-151d-4812-bddd-f1c0eae6ec0d","character_id":null,"markdown":"レーザー、変調器、受光器、Driver、TIA、DSP、制御回路、光学実装、ファイバー結合などを一つにまとめた通信装置なのである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_151fdaec-e091-40b2-b1a6-6881997ffee9","kind":"heading","order":47,"section_id":"sec_757b9049-332a-4bee-91c3-a04602ac20c2","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜光トランシーバの内部","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_433aed8f-6d15-438b-8ace-198459f10870","kind":"figure","order":48,"section_id":"sec_757b9049-332a-4bee-91c3-a04602ac20c2","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光トランシーバの内部 01](/media/fee9f0dc0d0a2b218e3e975f1c595ab1eb78bf3b83e86a7b9d6d75ffda3f9e88-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f6569e48-fd4e-4a96-89cd-e1e54613fbcd","kind":"heading","order":49,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 3　800Gや1.6Tとは、何が800G・1.6Tなのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c08ae5a-f061-4d6f-a371-895dc86c6006","kind":"paragraph","order":50,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここも非常に重要だ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_91367abb-3e63-452d-b7e7-ee3097621773","kind":"paragraph","order":51,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"「1.6Tレーザー」という意味ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_29397d33-44cf-4a20-82ef-ec23b0484766","kind":"paragraph","order":52,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"1.6Tとは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8a493828-7364-45d0-a02c-3e93c17b6166","kind":"paragraph","order":53,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"1.6 terabit per second","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_09653495-9f4b-4527-bfea-9d0f6cd164bd","kind":"paragraph","order":54,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、その光トランシーバーが片方向に扱える総通信帯域を表している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6acd84e7-b952-4a7a-aaf2-495f20bf568b","kind":"paragraph","order":55,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在の代表例なら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_79f05d34-b6a4-44cc-ba77-76a7d2e39278","kind":"paragraph","order":56,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"200 Gb/s × 8 lane\n        =\n     1.6 Tb/s","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c4d3a682-fa7c-4329-a09f-bbcef15bec2a","kind":"paragraph","order":57,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_16253b50-4577-4b9c-8437-70a0e1d1b4c5","kind":"paragraph","order":58,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"OSFP規格も8本の高速電気レーンを基本とし、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_02e5729a-3e2c-4862-b902-c2c6e1577b84","kind":"paragraph","order":59,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"8 × 50G  = 400G\n8 × 100G = 800G\n8 × 200G = 1.6T","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dae79e11-7382-4324-aac0-0e0f9edbf391","kind":"paragraph","order":60,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"まで拡張されている。(OSFPmsa)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_50990c98-827b-4fc6-962b-b75bd71e4338","kind":"paragraph","order":61,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_884bcfa4-3a45-42f0-978d-33f882bd2be0","kind":"paragraph","order":62,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"800G → 1.6T","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_51557a88-a160-4369-a5ad-443a63f06869","kind":"paragraph","order":63,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"とはモジュールが単純に大きくなったという意味ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4eb9d910-088a-41ea-a12c-383845fcb7ce","kind":"paragraph","order":64,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"1本あたりの信号速度を、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c4613f1-98c4-4c08-8b16-d60fd1fbe620","kind":"paragraph","order":65,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"100G/lane\n   ↓\n200G/lane","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c70660cb-2e6d-4c6c-a2f7-bafb58c0935c","kind":"paragraph","order":66,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ上げることで、同じ8レーンから2倍のデータを運ぶようになったのである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_95442e4c-c8aa-4897-bc7f-a383aecb5ba4","kind":"paragraph","order":67,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"なお「200G」という言葉には注意が必要だ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1f1a2794-6dab-4d22-9cc3-58cc5d04d042","kind":"paragraph","order":68,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"200Gは「200Gモジュール全体」を指す場合もあれば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a1d4f3e6-4b8f-4557-91db-5ff1df9b2a7f","kind":"paragraph","order":69,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"200G/lane","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_32f65308-4efa-4c72-a05d-ec0ef1bd7161","kind":"paragraph","order":70,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"を意味する場合もある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_55e15117-86c9-4ca5-b9ab-06abcebfdc5b","kind":"paragraph","order":71,"section_id":"sec_a588b347-c738-4e12-81eb-3607093e11ef","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在1.6Tについて議論するときの200Gは、多くの場合後者である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_06e38789-347f-47ef-8702-5ab6e370a741","kind":"heading","order":72,"section_id":"sec_a8daf81f-e579-4097-a364-3a0dc549e3d4","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜800Gと1.6Tの意味","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ebd2b773-737e-4ae7-8cd8-3c06c912faa5","kind":"figure","order":73,"section_id":"sec_a8daf81f-e579-4097-a364-3a0dc549e3d4","character_id":null,"markdown":"![800Gと1.6Tの意味 01](/media/48a6067dad82caaf05514af1d09ac41c371eea5172e91f07625d35ac140e7ae1-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6403eb6f-ed57-451d-b6a1-9fa101de4dd3","kind":"heading","order":74,"section_id":"sec_d3666cc6-1878-4241-9b29-22bb75e74b41","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 4　電気側と光側ではレーン構成が違うこともある","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_df30c438-8831-4451-aa9c-6483a2052356","kind":"paragraph","order":75,"section_id":"sec_d3666cc6-1878-4241-9b29-22bb75e74b41","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えば1.6T DR8なら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88887429-b614-4dca-b121-274332bcb702","kind":"paragraph","order":76,"section_id":"sec_d3666cc6-1878-4241-9b29-22bb75e74b41","character_id":null,"markdown":"Electrical\n200G × 8\n   ↓\nOptical DSP\n   ↓\nOptical\n200G × 8\n   ↓\n1.6T","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b02cebeb-9d02-436a-a703-1f96943a3b81","kind":"paragraph","order":77,"section_id":"sec_d3666cc6-1878-4241-9b29-22bb75e74b41","character_id":null,"markdown":"で比較的分かりやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a0d08fd2-4542-4824-83b3-180249214753","kind":"paragraph","order":78,"section_id":"sec_d3666cc6-1878-4241-9b29-22bb75e74b41","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし波長多重を使えば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eaa76a7f-0601-4833-a307-380f84588faf","kind":"paragraph","order":79,"section_id":"sec_d3666cc6-1878-4241-9b29-22bb75e74b41","character_id":null,"markdown":"λ1\nλ2\nλ3\nλ4\n   ↓\nWDM\n   ↓\n1本のFiber","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d4f1f08-fb54-4400-83f2-eb8302e52b8a","kind":"paragraph","order":80,"section_id":"sec_d3666cc6-1878-4241-9b29-22bb75e74b41","character_id":null,"markdown":"のように複数波長を一本のファイバーへまとめることができる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93549ed4-7a9a-4334-b33d-049de9d3a5c2","kind":"paragraph","order":81,"section_id":"sec_d3666cc6-1878-4241-9b29-22bb75e74b41","character_id":null,"markdown":"Eoptolinkは2023年時点ですでに200G/lambdaを使う1.6T製品を公開しており、EML、Silicon Photonics、TFLNなど複数の変調技術を評価していた。(Eoptolink)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_54293a40-3a26-4bc4-80a9-f2e3a40b8dba","kind":"paragraph","order":82,"section_id":"sec_d3666cc6-1878-4241-9b29-22bb75e74b41","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり今起きている競争は単なる「800Gを1.6Tにする」競争ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5a7c4c9b-5a44-46b2-9504-2976526555f9","kind":"paragraph","order":83,"section_id":"sec_d3666cc6-1878-4241-9b29-22bb75e74b41","character_id":null,"markdown":"1波長、1レーンあたり何Gb/sまで引き上げられるのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1b7100d9-c599-462f-9d04-2e3ffd28da0a","kind":"paragraph","order":84,"section_id":"sec_d3666cc6-1878-4241-9b29-22bb75e74b41","character_id":null,"markdown":"という競争でもある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b366f7c7-a8de-45bb-bea4-09a16c427eb2","kind":"heading","order":85,"section_id":"sec_1c55ca48-a60c-4c3f-8625-65e61d338423","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜DR8・FR4・波長多重","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e6f5fef-3999-4d2a-afe1-886f1a2a3078","kind":"figure","order":86,"section_id":"sec_1c55ca48-a60c-4c3f-8625-65e61d338423","character_id":null,"markdown":"![DR8・FR4・波長多重 01](/media/1fbc339ff9dae473c694d595e29a0a49397a1c7ca6d42d8d5e5f14cb85f44ebc-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eb36bca5-2d85-49b7-acdd-eef650fbb9d4","kind":"heading","order":87,"section_id":"sec_63174e3b-9b11-49d1-9e9b-b9e7744eb57e","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 5　Broadcom Tomahawkとは何なのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_779e2d9d-80e2-4159-aa43-a3c5e9ed2f4a","kind":"paragraph","order":88,"section_id":"sec_63174e3b-9b11-49d1-9e9b-b9e7744eb57e","character_id":null,"markdown":"ではSwitch ASICへ進もう。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c04d18ee-c72d-4e42-8d5b-9d52b9eb202a","kind":"paragraph","order":89,"section_id":"sec_63174e3b-9b11-49d1-9e9b-b9e7744eb57e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Broadcom Tomahawkは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7020579a-738b-4e13-9e78-6e1c28f776bc","kind":"paragraph","order":90,"section_id":"sec_63174e3b-9b11-49d1-9e9b-b9e7744eb57e","character_id":null,"markdown":"大量のパケットを受け取り、それぞれを正しい出口へ猛烈な速度で振り分けるASIC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1da8df93-831f-4e3b-8726-183d21454571","kind":"paragraph","order":91,"section_id":"sec_63174e3b-9b11-49d1-9e9b-b9e7744eb57e","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f650241a-5586-4d78-886d-95729e633f39","kind":"paragraph","order":92,"section_id":"sec_63174e3b-9b11-49d1-9e9b-b9e7744eb57e","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えばLeaf Switchへ次の通信が同時に入る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bea8ede8-c810-41f5-b9c0-71f09d6eff75","kind":"paragraph","order":93,"section_id":"sec_63174e3b-9b11-49d1-9e9b-b9e7744eb57e","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU 1 → GPU 105\nGPU 2 → GPU 42\nGPU 3 → GPU 900\nGPU 4 → GPU 22\nGPU 5 → GPU 781","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93adf22c-d9bc-4c60-8668-19f5ee9b637b","kind":"paragraph","order":94,"section_id":"sec_63174e3b-9b11-49d1-9e9b-b9e7744eb57e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Switch ASICはそれぞれのパケットを解析して、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5edb7bd6-2d71-4b96-8b49-9a18b8b57064","kind":"paragraph","order":95,"section_id":"sec_63174e3b-9b11-49d1-9e9b-b9e7744eb57e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Input\n  │\n  ▼\n┌──────────────────┐\n│   Switch ASIC    │\n│                  │\n│ Parser           │\n│ Lookup           │\n│ Routing          │\n│ Load Balance     │\n│ Congestion Mgmt  │\n│ Scheduling       │\n└──────┬───────────┘\n       │\n ┌─────┼─────┐\n ▼     ▼     ▼\nPort1 Port8 Port32","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a7600c7f-df21-4000-9e19-03620338c7a0","kind":"paragraph","order":96,"section_id":"sec_63174e3b-9b11-49d1-9e9b-b9e7744eb57e","character_id":null,"markdown":"と振り分ける。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_db6ec9c9-bfef-475f-a6f0-304323b352a0","kind":"paragraph","order":97,"section_id":"sec_63174e3b-9b11-49d1-9e9b-b9e7744eb57e","character_id":null,"markdown":"Tomahawk 6は102.4Tb/sのスイッチング能力を1チップで実現し、100G/200G SerDesとAIクラスタ向けのロードバランシング、輻輳管理機能を備える。(Broadcom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_07256496-e53c-4d07-8391-76bf649885a9","kind":"paragraph","order":98,"section_id":"sec_63174e3b-9b11-49d1-9e9b-b9e7744eb57e","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりTomahawkは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93345a81-1660-4541-a43f-22f9b94824d4","kind":"paragraph","order":99,"section_id":"sec_63174e3b-9b11-49d1-9e9b-b9e7744eb57e","character_id":null,"markdown":"光を作る装置ではなく、通信の行き先を決める装置","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_66646e7d-4b24-4b13-acdf-bef8e9d410b2","kind":"paragraph","order":100,"section_id":"sec_63174e3b-9b11-49d1-9e9b-b9e7744eb57e","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bae9c220-995a-4de5-9750-249b24a4ee13","kind":"heading","order":101,"section_id":"sec_2729d346-0605-443b-b9af-21b631cf93a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Switch ASICの役割","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7e45a5da-50f3-4aa7-a1f9-91d78cc2df7f","kind":"figure","order":102,"section_id":"sec_2729d346-0605-443b-b9af-21b631cf93a7","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Switch ASICの役割 01](/media/194bcc9ca471e2620527e6c84d30f18a2f73fbdf3fef20df69d2e1b064e78520-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15a0912e-d663-4141-b03a-af284dd10fbe","kind":"heading","order":103,"section_id":"sec_a059705a-c9e3-47d6-af3e-3dab75c85151","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 6　SerDesとは何なのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_75457419-1ee0-44b6-9ba1-9a9ee687d264","kind":"paragraph","order":104,"section_id":"sec_a059705a-c9e3-47d6-af3e-3dab75c85151","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただしSwitch ASICの仕事はパケット処理だけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd255a8a-7539-4baa-b6e9-98fb7cf9a025","kind":"paragraph","order":105,"section_id":"sec_a059705a-c9e3-47d6-af3e-3dab75c85151","character_id":null,"markdown":"ASICの端には大量のSerDesがある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fef61d7e-7691-4bea-898c-63bf5fda68e7","kind":"paragraph","order":106,"section_id":"sec_a059705a-c9e3-47d6-af3e-3dab75c85151","character_id":null,"markdown":"SerDesとは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_64430483-e807-421b-876f-7a5a2a8e3118","kind":"paragraph","order":107,"section_id":"sec_a059705a-c9e3-47d6-af3e-3dab75c85151","character_id":null,"markdown":"Serializer / Deserializer","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb7d34c1-8f32-4d76-8c4e-45c6f26817db","kind":"paragraph","order":108,"section_id":"sec_a059705a-c9e3-47d6-af3e-3dab75c85151","character_id":null,"markdown":"の略である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3f63e6dd-d010-4bb2-8807-f7fa765902ee","kind":"paragraph","order":109,"section_id":"sec_a059705a-c9e3-47d6-af3e-3dab75c85151","character_id":null,"markdown":"チップ内部では大量のデータを並列に処理できても、そのまま何千本もの配線を外へ出すことはできない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7a0894f5-6d01-4b26-b6d2-606c8baf0764","kind":"paragraph","order":110,"section_id":"sec_a059705a-c9e3-47d6-af3e-3dab75c85151","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ffb9d0b3-66a6-4021-858f-28ab45e8c364","kind":"paragraph","order":111,"section_id":"sec_a059705a-c9e3-47d6-af3e-3dab75c85151","character_id":null,"markdown":"Parallel Data","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ba0133c-8445-4031-a502-c58efea7a2da","kind":"paragraph","order":112,"section_id":"sec_a059705a-c9e3-47d6-af3e-3dab75c85151","character_id":null,"markdown":"D0 ─┐\nD1 ─┤\nD2 ─┤\nD3 ─┤\nD4 ─┤\nD5 ─┤\nD6 ─┤\nD7 ─┘\n     │\n     ▼\n Serializer\n     │\n     ▼","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_337322ba-03f8-4da9-a08c-b3402b6169ea","kind":"heading","order":113,"section_id":"sec_043fcfff-8b78-4a52-9fc9-b4df96960c0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜SerDesの直列化と復元","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f67e45b-2b9f-4836-a37c-e154e8864e35","kind":"figure","order":114,"section_id":"sec_043fcfff-8b78-4a52-9fc9-b4df96960c0a","character_id":null,"markdown":"![SerDesの直列化と復元 01](/media/9db7d93164a9c146713a745d8e3273406de3eabfa13d067c0bf90e249d71f5e0-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_03794ba7-446f-43da-bf38-ffc898d25b25","kind":"heading","order":115,"section_id":"sec_87221633-9702-4dcc-990d-5b97897db555","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 101101001101010...","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2d73a03b-91ee-4f95-bbf7-a4e6adfff222","kind":"paragraph","order":116,"section_id":"sec_87221633-9702-4dcc-990d-5b97897db555","character_id":null,"markdown":"と高速serial信号へ変換する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_618aa684-8c24-46fe-bd8e-63a1a700aa84","kind":"paragraph","order":117,"section_id":"sec_87221633-9702-4dcc-990d-5b97897db555","character_id":null,"markdown":"受信側では逆に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_39e810bf-1d3b-4aeb-b58e-07203ae27d87","kind":"paragraph","order":118,"section_id":"sec_87221633-9702-4dcc-990d-5b97897db555","character_id":null,"markdown":"Serial\n  ↓\nDeserializer\n  ↓\nParallel","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_af80c22b-909e-4eee-a06e-dcf752b81005","kind":"paragraph","order":119,"section_id":"sec_87221633-9702-4dcc-990d-5b97897db555","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ戻す。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b241e02d-72d8-4003-8c30-8fcda44d9b6a","kind":"paragraph","order":120,"section_id":"sec_87221633-9702-4dcc-990d-5b97897db555","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかも現在のSerDesは、単なる直列変換器ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a64eca6a-0ef9-49e9-ad28-930af54dead4","kind":"paragraph","order":121,"section_id":"sec_87221633-9702-4dcc-990d-5b97897db555","character_id":null,"markdown":"高速電気信号はPCBやコネクタを通るうちに、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c10d1141-a79d-47f6-80b2-700cb31d2f49","kind":"paragraph","order":122,"section_id":"sec_87221633-9702-4dcc-990d-5b97897db555","character_id":null,"markdown":"信号損失、ISI、ジッタ、ノイズなどによって波形が崩れる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_982f322f-f1ec-4b41-bd59-14bd443d570d","kind":"paragraph","order":123,"section_id":"sec_87221633-9702-4dcc-990d-5b97897db555","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのためEqualizationやCDR――Clock and Data Recovery――などを使って、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4a26ba80-b6a9-4ebd-b951-8c7b661db059","kind":"paragraph","order":124,"section_id":"sec_87221633-9702-4dcc-990d-5b97897db555","character_id":null,"markdown":"崩れた信号から元のbitとクロックを復元する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_de6705f5-be81-40db-bdfe-24e6607d57be","kind":"paragraph","order":125,"section_id":"sec_87221633-9702-4dcc-990d-5b97897db555","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ec2a737-990b-4b7a-b500-a42f53687224","kind":"paragraph","order":126,"section_id":"sec_87221633-9702-4dcc-990d-5b97897db555","character_id":null,"markdown":"BroadcomもSerDesをGPU/XPU、NIC、Switch、Retimer、Optical DSPをつなぐAIインフラの基礎技術として位置づけている。(Broadcom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b7d1f866-6a5c-4078-8fb6-c699942bc169","kind":"paragraph","order":127,"section_id":"sec_87221633-9702-4dcc-990d-5b97897db555","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがってSwitch ASICは「信号を増幅するもの」というより、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e1db862c-257a-4d95-ac31-8f38b5d12eba","kind":"paragraph","order":128,"section_id":"sec_87221633-9702-4dcc-990d-5b97897db555","character_id":null,"markdown":"データを読み直し、処理し、きれいな新しい高速信号として次のリンクへ送る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73c49b59-a5a2-4037-8836-9b4da6371fb0","kind":"paragraph","order":129,"section_id":"sec_87221633-9702-4dcc-990d-5b97897db555","character_id":null,"markdown":"と理解した方が近い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ba20d5c-2691-4bc5-bcf5-e847a1a0d705","kind":"heading","order":130,"section_id":"sec_00fe19bc-f566-4f6a-a42f-7445efe9d651","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 7　PHYとは何なのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_107d477c-9fdf-4e18-892a-dfc010ad21d2","kind":"paragraph","order":131,"section_id":"sec_00fe19bc-f566-4f6a-a42f-7445efe9d651","character_id":null,"markdown":"PHYはPhysical Layer、つまり物理層である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_61baac88-2653-4966-864d-5f9877d80f18","kind":"paragraph","order":132,"section_id":"sec_00fe19bc-f566-4f6a-a42f-7445efe9d651","character_id":null,"markdown":"SerDesはPHYを構成する非常に重要な部分だが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c77d53b2-d1d1-4632-b313-0533c46aa60b","kind":"paragraph","order":133,"section_id":"sec_00fe19bc-f566-4f6a-a42f-7445efe9d651","character_id":null,"markdown":"SerDes＝PHY","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7cb05602-ce4d-42d7-9ba5-82d10ee54b3d","kind":"paragraph","order":134,"section_id":"sec_00fe19bc-f566-4f6a-a42f-7445efe9d651","character_id":null,"markdown":"ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0153e44f-8705-4b8e-9e8b-f308a6e8306b","kind":"paragraph","order":135,"section_id":"sec_00fe19bc-f566-4f6a-a42f-7445efe9d651","character_id":null,"markdown":"概念的には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a44de80f-f6c3-446b-847b-ea03ab08db89","kind":"paragraph","order":136,"section_id":"sec_00fe19bc-f566-4f6a-a42f-7445efe9d651","character_id":null,"markdown":"Ethernet MAC\n    │\n    ▼\n   PCS\n    │\n    ▼\n   PMA\n    │\n    └── SerDes\n    │\n    ▼\n   PMD\n    │\n    ▼\nCopper / Fiber","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a32e20e5-979b-46af-a59e-c562b4d98262","kind":"paragraph","order":137,"section_id":"sec_00fe19bc-f566-4f6a-a42f-7445efe9d651","character_id":null,"markdown":"という階層になっている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_97555d39-e860-4569-98d2-31fe6b728d65","kind":"paragraph","order":138,"section_id":"sec_00fe19bc-f566-4f6a-a42f-7445efe9d651","character_id":null,"markdown":"PCSでは符号化、レーン分配、FECなどを扱い、PMAではSerDesなど高速電気信号を扱う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a9c2bb8a-0a2f-4e4a-9875-54d903438004","kind":"paragraph","order":139,"section_id":"sec_00fe19bc-f566-4f6a-a42f-7445efe9d651","character_id":null,"markdown":"その先のPMDは実際の伝送媒体に依存する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_43b2cb91-4321-48a1-9cb8-b80163657ff8","kind":"paragraph","order":140,"section_id":"sec_00fe19bc-f566-4f6a-a42f-7445efe9d651","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりPHYとは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3527f75a-9233-4e46-aa3a-fbdca12bcee4","kind":"paragraph","order":141,"section_id":"sec_00fe19bc-f566-4f6a-a42f-7445efe9d651","character_id":null,"markdown":"論理的なEthernetデータを、実際にケーブルや光ファイバーを通る物理信号へ落とし込む一連の階層","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d4c0224f-a2d5-4cec-9e0f-b08e7d7b4a8d","kind":"paragraph","order":142,"section_id":"sec_00fe19bc-f566-4f6a-a42f-7445efe9d651","character_id":null,"markdown":"なのである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a0805a65-88f5-4d4c-bb9b-69208fc8c108","kind":"heading","order":143,"section_id":"sec_cd6d7086-d1d0-4a04-b877-6dc8d4256f20","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜PHYの階層","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_18f945dc-fe4a-45d9-be5e-600521e8b22c","kind":"figure","order":144,"section_id":"sec_cd6d7086-d1d0-4a04-b877-6dc8d4256f20","character_id":null,"markdown":"![PHYの階層 01](/media/574c1dc83f6d171f5524213180dd5884dd3c67032960b842890bfdf67defbe46-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c9dc72c1-9d44-4c79-8306-0899eccb5aaf","kind":"heading","order":145,"section_id":"sec_2bdc423f-1561-494f-86d1-4824f6fd2c23","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 8　ではMarvell Novaは何をしているのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_393295df-f3d0-4b85-9701-d776f432a013","kind":"paragraph","order":146,"section_id":"sec_2bdc423f-1561-494f-86d1-4824f6fd2c23","character_id":null,"markdown":"TomahawkとNovaを混同しやすい理由がここにある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b79f2f57-7089-4cfb-9ae2-074293c8bf5c","kind":"paragraph","order":147,"section_id":"sec_2bdc423f-1561-494f-86d1-4824f6fd2c23","character_id":null,"markdown":"どちらも高速通信半導体だが、役割が違う。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dcb5ae04-3225-424d-8384-ecfc096a44ee","kind":"paragraph","order":148,"section_id":"sec_2bdc423f-1561-494f-86d1-4824f6fd2c23","character_id":null,"markdown":"Marvell Nova 2は1.6T Optical DSPである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0a407e3f-fc9a-4248-a558-d21b1ed27442","kind":"paragraph","order":149,"section_id":"sec_2bdc423f-1561-494f-86d1-4824f6fd2c23","character_id":null,"markdown":"具体的には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c90b76e-09fd-4f12-9cd4-a488df873fdf","kind":"paragraph","order":150,"section_id":"sec_2bdc423f-1561-494f-86d1-4824f6fd2c23","character_id":null,"markdown":"Switch / NIC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6619469f-1144-410a-8753-94adaf761098","kind":"paragraph","order":151,"section_id":"sec_2bdc423f-1561-494f-86d1-4824f6fd2c23","character_id":null,"markdown":"8 × 200G electrical\n        │\n        ▼\n┌──────────────────┐\n│ Marvell Nova 2   │\n│ Optical DSP      │\n└────────┬─────────┘\n         │\n8 × 200G optical side\n         │\n         ▼\nDriver / EML / SiPh\n         │\n         ▼\n       Fiber","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a22a3f4d-ee93-4a4e-a65a-c25a3ab0ee9e","kind":"paragraph","order":152,"section_id":"sec_2bdc423f-1561-494f-86d1-4824f6fd2c23","character_id":null,"markdown":"という位置に入る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c280f2d-25cb-49f6-a278-fecb648ad189","kind":"paragraph","order":153,"section_id":"sec_2bdc423f-1561-494f-86d1-4824f6fd2c23","character_id":null,"markdown":"MarvellによればNova 2は8本の200Gb/s host electrical interfaceと8本の200Gb/s optical interfaceを持つ。(Marvell Technology)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6d898852-1a4f-4b72-88e1-3f7dbc1dced6","kind":"paragraph","order":154,"section_id":"sec_2bdc423f-1561-494f-86d1-4824f6fd2c23","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf54907c-29df-4873-bad8-9461aab34bd0","kind":"paragraph","order":155,"section_id":"sec_2bdc423f-1561-494f-86d1-4824f6fd2c23","character_id":null,"markdown":"Tomahawk＝Switchの頭脳","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c642256-0657-4f23-9225-cccc061dd450","kind":"paragraph","order":156,"section_id":"sec_2bdc423f-1561-494f-86d1-4824f6fd2c23","character_id":null,"markdown":"Nova＝光トランシーバー内部の信号処理の頭脳","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_789d61f2-5c70-4502-984e-218e8fb2600f","kind":"paragraph","order":157,"section_id":"sec_2bdc423f-1561-494f-86d1-4824f6fd2c23","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d8a64d07-c302-4967-be44-9b479c6842e6","kind":"heading","order":158,"section_id":"sec_39e271bb-954c-40c3-a89c-61b71f50e1dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Optical DSPの役割","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_966d98d0-c27d-48e3-b996-122fee253f5f","kind":"figure","order":159,"section_id":"sec_39e271bb-954c-40c3-a89c-61b71f50e1dc","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Optical DSPの役割 01](/media/eaa59b8dcb304f2e03cb052f6020e639a373e5b44813d1b06d10c1f7559d278b-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84952345-20a1-46bc-bed2-debd2cf55655","kind":"heading","order":160,"section_id":"sec_007a9044-5086-4e47-9b0c-1d50e57ce029","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 9　Broadcomはさらにややこしい","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_137703c3-35da-4bc0-b01b-1cec8ff68cf6","kind":"paragraph","order":161,"section_id":"sec_007a9044-5086-4e47-9b0c-1d50e57ce029","character_id":null,"markdown":"Broadcomが理解しにくい理由は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e742e358-9d3f-427c-8190-a6d29954aa6c","kind":"paragraph","order":162,"section_id":"sec_007a9044-5086-4e47-9b0c-1d50e57ce029","character_id":null,"markdown":"両方やっている","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b0c21604-09aa-48b6-990e-231ea38f59ff","kind":"paragraph","order":163,"section_id":"sec_007a9044-5086-4e47-9b0c-1d50e57ce029","character_id":null,"markdown":"からだ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ffc1684d-4600-4600-8ecc-dbf6314bcf5d","kind":"paragraph","order":164,"section_id":"sec_007a9044-5086-4e47-9b0c-1d50e57ce029","character_id":null,"markdown":"BroadcomにはTomahawkというSwitch ASICがある一方で、光モジュール向けDSP、PHY、SerDes、VCSELなどの光通信部品もある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3ea317ad-9526-4abd-8d0b-d8d368024304","kind":"paragraph","order":165,"section_id":"sec_007a9044-5086-4e47-9b0c-1d50e57ce029","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって同じネットワークの中に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_08dfd788-d0bc-459e-9f89-9b26f51d5de2","kind":"paragraph","order":166,"section_id":"sec_007a9044-5086-4e47-9b0c-1d50e57ce029","character_id":null,"markdown":"Broadcom Switch ASIC\n        │\n        ▼\nInnolight / Eoptolink Module\n        │\n        └─ 内部にBroadcom DSP","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f91be92-2f55-448e-b9b7-39c99c85b831","kind":"paragraph","order":167,"section_id":"sec_007a9044-5086-4e47-9b0c-1d50e57ce029","character_id":null,"markdown":"という構成が存在してもおかしくない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_912a2c84-3139-4287-a77f-baf0d0f7b3e9","kind":"paragraph","order":168,"section_id":"sec_007a9044-5086-4e47-9b0c-1d50e57ce029","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際Eoptolinkは400G時代、Broadcomの7nm PAM4 Optical Platformを使った400G DR4/FR4モジュールを量産していた。Broadcom自身も、光モジュールメーカーが同社のPHY、PMD IC、III-V光部品を組み合わせられることを説明している。(Eoptolink)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0d3f2c05-6712-4570-93a8-b7b7255ae90e","kind":"paragraph","order":169,"section_id":"sec_007a9044-5086-4e47-9b0c-1d50e57ce029","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらにMarvellのNova 2発表ではInnolightの幹部がコメントしており、Nova 2とInnolightの高速トランシーバー設計・量産能力を組み合わせる関係が明記されている。(Marvell Technology)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c86c922c-5068-4fbe-8e71-25314daf5b02","kind":"paragraph","order":170,"section_id":"sec_007a9044-5086-4e47-9b0c-1d50e57ce029","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりこれは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_73f5c51d-980c-4258-9705-9cda98b67170","kind":"paragraph","order":171,"section_id":"sec_007a9044-5086-4e47-9b0c-1d50e57ce029","character_id":null,"markdown":"米国製DSP vs 中国製光モジュール","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f2554e7-4eb4-417a-bfd9-6749046abbf1","kind":"paragraph","order":172,"section_id":"sec_007a9044-5086-4e47-9b0c-1d50e57ce029","character_id":null,"markdown":"という単純な対立構造ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8a53c5f2-b018-4173-8939-16c64b7e9ecd","kind":"paragraph","order":173,"section_id":"sec_007a9044-5086-4e47-9b0c-1d50e57ce029","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際には極めて深く相互依存したサプライチェーンなのである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_40d532a2-8f5a-4cf7-a988-048dbaab48c4","kind":"heading","order":174,"section_id":"sec_c28d97e5-c789-4742-8acc-8b32c013fcce","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Broadcomの二つの位置","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9f723360-9522-4f2b-b9dd-43aa64355c3c","kind":"figure","order":175,"section_id":"sec_c28d97e5-c789-4742-8acc-8b32c013fcce","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Broadcomの二つの位置 01](/media/02681814daab0dd41da010a87cc87c084e04899445d0349c54ebe58be548cf02-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_705d631c-5ce2-4457-ad1c-5be33712850e","kind":"heading","order":176,"section_id":"sec_a7599c0b-3ca8-4614-8d04-291b311acdfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 10　CoherentはInnolightと何が違うのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd292c04-8c1e-42c6-aede-d634cf97732c","kind":"paragraph","order":177,"section_id":"sec_a7599c0b-3ca8-4614-8d04-291b311acdfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coherentはかなり特殊だ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4dfc79e8-6790-4903-b8ad-ce1dd24bca4b","kind":"paragraph","order":178,"section_id":"sec_a7599c0b-3ca8-4614-8d04-291b311acdfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"InnolightやEoptolinkが高速光モジュールの設計・量産に特化した「スペシャリスト」に近いのに対し、Coherentは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ee3640af-150d-4dd5-b4d3-f69e3b61888e","kind":"paragraph","order":179,"section_id":"sec_a7599c0b-3ca8-4614-8d04-291b311acdfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"材料\n ↓\nInP / GaAs\n ↓\nLaser / VCSEL / EML\n ↓\nSiPh\n ↓\nDriver / TIA\n ↓\nOptical Engine\n ↓\n完成Transceiver","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb9516f3-2e0d-4153-9975-e57b76acba7f","kind":"paragraph","order":180,"section_id":"sec_a7599c0b-3ca8-4614-8d04-291b311acdfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"までかなり広く持つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_df7e2c3d-3110-4f3c-96a0-b1a3ad261073","kind":"paragraph","order":181,"section_id":"sec_a7599c0b-3ca8-4614-8d04-291b311acdfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のCoherentは、旧II-VIが2019年にFinisarを買収し、さらに2022年に旧Coherentを買収してCoherent Corp.へ改称した会社である。Finisarは長年、世界最大級の光トランシーバー企業だった。(Coherent Inc)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b8fb5d12-ab4d-440c-834b-f82da1aa774c","kind":"paragraph","order":182,"section_id":"sec_a7599c0b-3ca8-4614-8d04-291b311acdfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在もCoherentはSiPh、InP CWレーザー、200G EML、200G VCSELなど複数の光技術を持ち、1.6Tモジュールまで自社で作っている。(Coherent Inc)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_45fedb58-7e3b-4671-8b19-d978ff54d3f2","kind":"paragraph","order":183,"section_id":"sec_a7599c0b-3ca8-4614-8d04-291b311acdfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"2025年には、Coherentの1.6T DR8 SiPhトランシーバーの内部でMarvell Ara 3nm Optical DSPを使用する実演も公開された。(Coherent Inc)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_89ec07d4-10e9-460f-9591-fad8aaaaddd0","kind":"paragraph","order":184,"section_id":"sec_a7599c0b-3ca8-4614-8d04-291b311acdfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりCoherentでさえすべての半導体を100%自社製にするとは限らない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_16518b88-b06a-44c8-8d8a-128c33d990c2","kind":"paragraph","order":185,"section_id":"sec_a7599c0b-3ca8-4614-8d04-291b311acdfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"どこを内製し、どこを外部DSPに任せるかを柔軟に選べる垂直統合型企業","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f370c003-bc8e-490f-a7ad-68e237621a9d","kind":"paragraph","order":186,"section_id":"sec_a7599c0b-3ca8-4614-8d04-291b311acdfc","character_id":null,"markdown":"と見る方が正しい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4c7e9b8e-9a1c-44b4-8917-b22059aa2ffc","kind":"heading","order":187,"section_id":"sec_583d95b8-0d24-4311-8829-9458a9ec83c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜垂直統合型とModule統合型","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_319dd2cf-8f90-493c-b40a-716ba37e0b4c","kind":"figure","order":188,"section_id":"sec_583d95b8-0d24-4311-8829-9458a9ec83c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"![垂直統合型とModule統合型 01](/media/11ef293b93c36624d4f4bed3b1c933aef46315823566b162a3ac3b243729fdb7-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f3af63c-8ae5-4c52-aa4b-c606c4b02c32","kind":"heading","order":189,"section_id":"sec_9ddd3d5c-1ec0-41bf-a40e-be7fdbc33897","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 11　Lumentumはさらに「光源寄り」から始まった","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b97bf9f-3f8b-46d5-be84-3c9c01e47b85","kind":"paragraph","order":190,"section_id":"sec_9ddd3d5c-1ec0-41bf-a40e-be7fdbc33897","character_id":null,"markdown":"Lumentumは2015年、JDSUのCommunications and Commercial Optical Products事業が分離されて誕生した。(Lumentum Investor Relations)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a68e1371-b782-4d53-85e0-1da69c047fd6","kind":"paragraph","order":191,"section_id":"sec_9ddd3d5c-1ec0-41bf-a40e-be7fdbc33897","character_id":null,"markdown":"特に強いのが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e229e414-2d6f-4552-8c06-6df1a1f00193","kind":"paragraph","order":192,"section_id":"sec_9ddd3d5c-1ec0-41bf-a40e-be7fdbc33897","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP EML、CW Laser、VCSELなど光半導体","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6ec8635e-3c18-46ed-8a90-6060f5d6e5fc","kind":"paragraph","order":193,"section_id":"sec_9ddd3d5c-1ec0-41bf-a40e-be7fdbc33897","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_55dfdb1e-cb42-4c4b-b147-98d0f4120571","kind":"paragraph","order":194,"section_id":"sec_9ddd3d5c-1ec0-41bf-a40e-be7fdbc33897","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えばLumentumの200G EMLは、8本使えば1.6Tトランシーバーを構成できる。(Lumentum)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc0f2551-6fd1-4c40-b188-4ca89594ef27","kind":"paragraph","order":195,"section_id":"sec_9ddd3d5c-1ec0-41bf-a40e-be7fdbc33897","character_id":null,"markdown":"Silicon Photonicsでもレーザーそのものまでシリコンで作るとは限らない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6e05dfdc-c9dd-48d7-9729-5494ad4a3791","kind":"paragraph","order":196,"section_id":"sec_9ddd3d5c-1ec0-41bf-a40e-be7fdbc33897","character_id":null,"markdown":"典型的には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d491f0b9-385f-4b95-b8d5-1255095d9ac8","kind":"paragraph","order":197,"section_id":"sec_9ddd3d5c-1ec0-41bf-a40e-be7fdbc33897","character_id":null,"markdown":"InP CW Laser\n     │\n     ▼\nSilicon Photonics PIC\n     │\n     ├─ Modulator\n     ├─ Waveguide\n     └─ Coupler\n     │\n     ▼\n   Fiber","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_51b1b037-c349-47d1-b5eb-710e645075fa","kind":"paragraph","order":198,"section_id":"sec_9ddd3d5c-1ec0-41bf-a40e-be7fdbc33897","character_id":null,"markdown":"となるため、LumentumやCoherentのCW InPレーザーが重要になる。Lumentum自身もCWレーザーを400G、800G、1.6T SiPh/CPO向け光源として位置づけている。(Lumentum)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c55e286b-3e12-4022-91b8-cee14d13635a","kind":"paragraph","order":199,"section_id":"sec_9ddd3d5c-1ec0-41bf-a40e-be7fdbc33897","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただしLumentumも現在は純粋な部品メーカーではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_54747cab-e3d4-4402-98d3-0036770fe24c","kind":"paragraph","order":200,"section_id":"sec_9ddd3d5c-1ec0-41bf-a40e-be7fdbc33897","character_id":null,"markdown":"2023年にCloud Lightを買収してデータセンター向け光トランシーバーへ再拡大し、現在は1.6Tトランシーバーも展開している。(Lumentum)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d7a5a022-febe-4dd1-be7a-f002e8954b32","kind":"heading","order":201,"section_id":"sec_ff8f24ba-6961-47b2-9bcb-295bd2468f5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Lumentumの光源からModuleへの展開","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_93298c76-2153-4136-a9a9-821a0b7587ed","kind":"figure","order":202,"section_id":"sec_ff8f24ba-6961-47b2-9bcb-295bd2468f5d","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Lumentumの光源からModuleへの展開 01](/media/7ba49d79e35adb4c7ce8f80755ed6cab79a152d2e8d6135c62b4af46c34761bc-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_24c5d877-18bf-4567-a041-15200192c30d","kind":"heading","order":203,"section_id":"sec_133bb0ae-c6c3-453c-acd9-2fa020a7d302","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 12　Innolightはどのようにしてここまで来たのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c0cef61c-e170-4a53-a1ec-d216f11fdcf6","kind":"paragraph","order":204,"section_id":"sec_133bb0ae-c6c3-453c-acd9-2fa020a7d302","character_id":null,"markdown":"Innolightの歴史を見ると、AIブームで突然現れた会社ではないことが分かる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d20b17e5-84a7-4496-8429-ee76867a9994","kind":"paragraph","order":205,"section_id":"sec_133bb0ae-c6c3-453c-acd9-2fa020a7d302","character_id":null,"markdown":"2008年に蘇州で光トランシーバー企業として設立。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd772f5c-8e39-47fa-be25-57e2cbdbbb80","kind":"paragraph","order":206,"section_id":"sec_133bb0ae-c6c3-453c-acd9-2fa020a7d302","character_id":null,"markdown":"2012年には40G QSFP+。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8f380c39-d3cd-4ddb-b48a-7f8bde08a57f","kind":"paragraph","order":207,"section_id":"sec_133bb0ae-c6c3-453c-acd9-2fa020a7d302","character_id":null,"markdown":"2017年に上場企業の中際電工と再編してZhongji Innolightとなった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d2a3f35-7bb6-4362-b61e-823aaf53128c","kind":"paragraph","order":208,"section_id":"sec_133bb0ae-c6c3-453c-acd9-2fa020a7d302","character_id":null,"markdown":"2018年には400G QSFP-DD FR4。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_13db7f5f-5793-4460-bd4a-fcd019d5ba62","kind":"paragraph","order":209,"section_id":"sec_133bb0ae-c6c3-453c-acd9-2fa020a7d302","character_id":null,"markdown":"2019年には400G Silicon Photonics DR4。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8910cedb-2b3f-40b2-bda5-022d5dfe2e51","kind":"paragraph","order":210,"section_id":"sec_133bb0ae-c6c3-453c-acd9-2fa020a7d302","character_id":null,"markdown":"2020年には800G OSFP/QSFP-DD800。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b8869d6d-1f0b-4c33-a2ec-745b02ded464","kind":"paragraph","order":211,"section_id":"sec_133bb0ae-c6c3-453c-acd9-2fa020a7d302","character_id":null,"markdown":"2023年には1.6Tトランシーバーへ到達した。(InnoLight)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ce79c05-6374-442d-946d-4d8779a9d76a","kind":"paragraph","order":212,"section_id":"sec_133bb0ae-c6c3-453c-acd9-2fa020a7d302","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01540c03-ce19-4f9d-9968-7ee916f38c21","kind":"paragraph","order":213,"section_id":"sec_133bb0ae-c6c3-453c-acd9-2fa020a7d302","character_id":null,"markdown":"40G\n ↓\n100G\n ↓\n400G\n ↓\n800G\n ↓\n1.6T","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0341838b-61f3-4409-bb08-36b86cc32fea","kind":"paragraph","order":214,"section_id":"sec_133bb0ae-c6c3-453c-acd9-2fa020a7d302","character_id":null,"markdown":"というデータセンターEthernet高速化の波をほぼ正面から追い続けた会社である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2e9fcb43-bbca-49a3-8e83-515943f08924","kind":"paragraph","order":215,"section_id":"sec_133bb0ae-c6c3-453c-acd9-2fa020a7d302","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらに中国だけでなく、台湾、シンガポール、タイなどへR&D・製造機能を広げている。Innolightはタイの高量産工場について、高品質と低コストで世界顧客を支える拠点と説明している。(InnoLight)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_20efede9-d507-4a2b-b5f1-eb7be269e405","kind":"heading","order":216,"section_id":"sec_eb922611-cf6a-4cfb-8a07-17734b2aee83","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Innolightの高速化史","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b85f887a-7a94-486b-af17-52a1ed8d508f","kind":"figure","order":217,"section_id":"sec_eb922611-cf6a-4cfb-8a07-17734b2aee83","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Innolightの高速化史 01](/media/01ee6395d9c677384f9eb0303ca48d778ec874c6b65fda3cdb1612d19bcb1b7f-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cb5e4b52-05d0-4643-8aa5-1c9b5e6a8f4f","kind":"heading","order":218,"section_id":"sec_c2fe4ca0-2339-4d60-b296-4b7519c2a2d9","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 13　Eoptolinkも同じ2008年組だった","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb734e97-d805-4c10-bc74-0501fe7e9b6a","kind":"paragraph","order":219,"section_id":"sec_c2fe4ca0-2339-4d60-b296-4b7519c2a2d9","character_id":null,"markdown":"Eoptolinkも2008年創業である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ddd52377-29ea-4168-8bbd-40fca01a07dc","kind":"paragraph","order":220,"section_id":"sec_c2fe4ca0-2339-4d60-b296-4b7519c2a2d9","character_id":null,"markdown":"2016年3月3日に深圳証券取引所へ上場した。(Eoptolink)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_92340d5e-f3c4-4033-82f7-3c96886d99f9","kind":"paragraph","order":221,"section_id":"sec_c2fe4ca0-2339-4d60-b296-4b7519c2a2d9","character_id":null,"markdown":"2018年のOFCではすでに400Gポートフォリオを発表し、QSFP-DDとOSFPの双方へ対応していた。(Eoptolink)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bd4b7892-4134-4de4-975d-8f64f33c3dee","kind":"paragraph","order":222,"section_id":"sec_c2fe4ca0-2339-4d60-b296-4b7519c2a2d9","character_id":null,"markdown":"2023年には200G/lambdaを使った1.6Tを公開し、EMLだけでなくSiPh、TFLNまで評価している。(Eoptolink)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d324578-44d3-44c0-9308-442900940f9f","kind":"paragraph","order":223,"section_id":"sec_c2fe4ca0-2339-4d60-b296-4b7519c2a2d9","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまりEoptolinkも、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e3cf57b-35ca-421a-89d0-a85fa7db26dc","kind":"paragraph","order":224,"section_id":"sec_c2fe4ca0-2339-4d60-b296-4b7519c2a2d9","character_id":null,"markdown":"低速光モジュールを大量に作っていた会社がAIブームで偶然伸びた","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_78bebfc5-e0b4-45cf-a980-c752a74e8612","kind":"paragraph","order":225,"section_id":"sec_c2fe4ca0-2339-4d60-b296-4b7519c2a2d9","character_id":null,"markdown":"というより、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6590058f-4eb3-430c-8a76-b0a046e6cf8d","kind":"paragraph","order":226,"section_id":"sec_c2fe4ca0-2339-4d60-b296-4b7519c2a2d9","character_id":null,"markdown":"400G→800G→1.6Tという高速データセンター光にかなり早い段階から資本と技術を集中していた","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3351b582-c08d-4b9e-9bd3-b20471f870e0","kind":"paragraph","order":227,"section_id":"sec_c2fe4ca0-2339-4d60-b296-4b7519c2a2d9","character_id":null,"markdown":"会社なのである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_60e233d2-757e-4d16-85b8-f71d358b9f6b","kind":"heading","order":228,"section_id":"sec_be8d6976-a9be-4551-8973-ced47f34ada6","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Eoptolinkの高速化史","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0fda302b-e966-4c7e-834f-8c0877c6658c","kind":"figure","order":229,"section_id":"sec_be8d6976-a9be-4551-8973-ced47f34ada6","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Eoptolinkの高速化史 01](/media/d3be95fa3789764d9286cc34d9d80635f3b7b090d98638a2cb6ebc9e5e8fe01b-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e1dae859-309a-4697-936d-f952260246a1","kind":"heading","order":230,"section_id":"sec_7cbc4a83-383a-4937-9605-0aed0e91e08c","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 14　なぜ中国勢が強くなったのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_db42fa80-02a8-4490-be09-845bea82796a","kind":"paragraph","order":231,"section_id":"sec_7cbc4a83-383a-4937-9605-0aed0e91e08c","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここでLightCountingの15年間のランキング変化が非常に重要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_50b8e7da-907c-421e-a579-6942c62a097c","kind":"paragraph","order":232,"section_id":"sec_7cbc4a83-383a-4937-9605-0aed0e91e08c","character_id":null,"markdown":"LightCountingによれば、2018～2020年までに多くの日本・米国系メーカーが光トランシーバー市場から退出・縮小する一方、中国企業が順位を上げていった。Innolightは2023年に初めて世界1位となり、2024年売上は33億ドル超、Eoptolinkは2024年に前年比175%増の12億ドルとなって7位から3位へ急浮上した。(LightCounting)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5a79160-5306-490e-b279-69a63ed38156","kind":"paragraph","order":233,"section_id":"sec_7cbc4a83-383a-4937-9605-0aed0e91e08c","character_id":null,"markdown":"そして2025年。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ae86f7cc-3a93-4c61-ab9a-a0642794a781","kind":"paragraph","order":234,"section_id":"sec_7cbc4a83-383a-4937-9605-0aed0e91e08c","character_id":null,"markdown":"LightCountingでは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3b23eab0-4cf3-4424-92cf-b457cd00f3ff","kind":"paragraph","order":235,"section_id":"sec_7cbc4a83-383a-4937-9605-0aed0e91e08c","character_id":null,"markdown":"1位 Innolight","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_11249a08-8325-4be8-8fca-792474c1d448","kind":"paragraph","order":236,"section_id":"sec_7cbc4a83-383a-4937-9605-0aed0e91e08c","character_id":null,"markdown":"2位 Eoptolink","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd77b37e-98bd-4d57-9470-cc51b3582b26","kind":"paragraph","order":237,"section_id":"sec_7cbc4a83-383a-4937-9605-0aed0e91e08c","character_id":null,"markdown":"となり、EoptolinkはCoherentを抜いた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f90db5a5-3b98-4ca9-a5d5-aa1a7a86ee80","kind":"paragraph","order":238,"section_id":"sec_7cbc4a83-383a-4937-9605-0aed0e91e08c","character_id":null,"markdown":"Innolightの2025年売上はLightCounting集計で約53億ドル、Eoptolinkは約35億ドル。Eoptolinkは400G/800GでAmazonの主要サプライヤーとなり、NVIDIAなど他の米国大手でも認定を広げたとされる。(LightCounting)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3112b795-52b7-4475-b370-791ff60883c3","kind":"paragraph","order":239,"section_id":"sec_7cbc4a83-383a-4937-9605-0aed0e91e08c","character_id":null,"markdown":"LightCountingはこの2社について、非常に端的な説明をしている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_09f788c1-d75b-4ebf-b470-537b753a746f","kind":"paragraph","order":240,"section_id":"sec_7cbc4a83-383a-4937-9605-0aed0e91e08c","character_id":null,"markdown":"両社は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_111728ac-108a-4a76-9517-8373f540df8c","kind":"paragraph","order":241,"section_id":"sec_7cbc4a83-383a-4937-9605-0aed0e91e08c","character_id":null,"markdown":"最も伸びている高速Ethernetトランシーバーへほぼ集中した「スペシャリスト」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_88c1715f-11e4-4ed0-9ad3-8e5487b61e8b","kind":"paragraph","order":242,"section_id":"sec_7cbc4a83-383a-4937-9605-0aed0e91e08c","character_id":null,"markdown":"なのである。(LightCounting)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c35d2e8-6f39-4a69-b3e1-c379114c7d8b","kind":"heading","order":243,"section_id":"sec_3d5f6c11-6780-4f20-8b10-90e259e3db8f","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜高速Ethernet集中戦略","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d39c3f83-9549-45ef-9fd1-94a199123975","kind":"figure","order":244,"section_id":"sec_3d5f6c11-6780-4f20-8b10-90e259e3db8f","character_id":null,"markdown":"![高速Ethernet集中戦略 01](/media/7b3d1d51d363412edd3612184eb3ee82323818ff8ef30e3c228b87f8626bddf2-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e7a94489-d8ff-4676-a420-965acbebc20f","kind":"heading","order":245,"section_id":"sec_a3e48062-e95f-42f1-a19a-3faff6a06538","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 15　なぜかつての米国・日本勢は後退したのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_de338afb-0666-4fe4-98d2-806076f82845","kind":"paragraph","order":246,"section_id":"sec_a3e48062-e95f-42f1-a19a-3faff6a06538","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは技術で負けただけ、と見ると不十分だ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_be8731b7-ffb4-4c22-b5a9-c8f8cd632258","kind":"paragraph","order":247,"section_id":"sec_a3e48062-e95f-42f1-a19a-3faff6a06538","character_id":null,"markdown":"光トランシーバー市場は長い間、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ef210af7-7b9f-4e09-9331-fd95bdec487d","kind":"paragraph","order":248,"section_id":"sec_a3e48062-e95f-42f1-a19a-3faff6a06538","character_id":null,"markdown":"高い研究開発費、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e2f7016a-2732-47fa-a826-23098ec33ae5","kind":"paragraph","order":249,"section_id":"sec_a3e48062-e95f-42f1-a19a-3faff6a06538","character_id":null,"markdown":"厳しい品質要求、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9ec3e7b2-c3ba-46e8-b680-e7ad5a045c6e","kind":"paragraph","order":250,"section_id":"sec_a3e48062-e95f-42f1-a19a-3faff6a06538","character_id":null,"markdown":"激しいASP低下、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e37352c0-fcd5-44d5-8f24-e556ba5399a1","kind":"paragraph","order":251,"section_id":"sec_a3e48062-e95f-42f1-a19a-3faff6a06538","character_id":null,"markdown":"大量生産設備、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e2682561-890f-47b4-b172-74effcd06b1c","kind":"paragraph","order":252,"section_id":"sec_a3e48062-e95f-42f1-a19a-3faff6a06538","character_id":null,"markdown":"光軸調整、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2db866e6-f60d-4586-bcb5-3926bebb3554","kind":"paragraph","order":253,"section_id":"sec_a3e48062-e95f-42f1-a19a-3faff6a06538","character_id":null,"markdown":"バーンイン、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2fa77e2c-01c8-48d3-92a8-bc595072de2d","kind":"paragraph","order":254,"section_id":"sec_a3e48062-e95f-42f1-a19a-3faff6a06538","character_id":null,"markdown":"テスト、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e8a113fc-3a2d-4730-beb5-b8aba00647b9","kind":"paragraph","order":255,"section_id":"sec_a3e48062-e95f-42f1-a19a-3faff6a06538","character_id":null,"markdown":"顧客認定","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a76b664a-7277-4ae3-81c2-f361e2662329","kind":"paragraph","order":256,"section_id":"sec_a3e48062-e95f-42f1-a19a-3faff6a06538","character_id":null,"markdown":"を必要とする割に、半導体ほど高い利益率を取りにくい市場だった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2e76c612-2e7d-4d31-823d-732087b819bb","kind":"paragraph","order":257,"section_id":"sec_a3e48062-e95f-42f1-a19a-3faff6a06538","character_id":null,"markdown":"LightCountingによれば、光部品・モジュール企業の平均粗利率は30%以下で、他の通信産業の45～60%より低い状態が長く続いた。(LightCounting)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b79cf2c8-36fa-458d-bac4-d68000d64ca7","kind":"paragraph","order":258,"section_id":"sec_a3e48062-e95f-42f1-a19a-3faff6a06538","character_id":null,"markdown":"このため米国企業では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5b142378-86ae-47bc-86e7-a224b9b4d5e2","kind":"paragraph","order":259,"section_id":"sec_a3e48062-e95f-42f1-a19a-3faff6a06538","character_id":null,"markdown":"光トランシーバーを完成品まで大量生産するより、DSP、Switch ASIC、レーザー、SiPhなど高付加価値部分に集中する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d0ce3a4-b311-4bbf-8456-c6b7a0c1c125","kind":"paragraph","order":260,"section_id":"sec_a3e48062-e95f-42f1-a19a-3faff6a06538","character_id":null,"markdown":"という選択が合理的になった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0ce88f13-6012-4bfb-8f1a-1d71b0d87554","kind":"paragraph","order":261,"section_id":"sec_a3e48062-e95f-42f1-a19a-3faff6a06538","character_id":null,"markdown":"その隙間へ、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e0805c70-0d1f-476c-99b4-310f2c9fdb57","kind":"paragraph","order":262,"section_id":"sec_a3e48062-e95f-42f1-a19a-3faff6a06538","character_id":null,"markdown":"大量生産、低コスト、顧客個別対応、高速世代への早期投資","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_61d84be3-f7d2-4579-b6e9-0a69df68a0cf","kind":"paragraph","order":263,"section_id":"sec_a3e48062-e95f-42f1-a19a-3faff6a06538","character_id":null,"markdown":"を得意とするInnolightやEoptolinkが入った。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bea940e7-18b8-4dc5-9993-ff16afaca62d","kind":"paragraph","order":264,"section_id":"sec_a3e48062-e95f-42f1-a19a-3faff6a06538","character_id":null,"markdown":"そしてAIブームが始まった瞬間、この戦略が爆発的な利益へ変わったのである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e960613-a223-4f8a-b65d-109702102a70","kind":"heading","order":265,"section_id":"sec_fcaf579a-db57-4189-92dd-1480e68905ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜完成Moduleから高付加価値部品への移動","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aee5ea58-52f0-4649-8997-e1431cdd45c1","kind":"figure","order":266,"section_id":"sec_fcaf579a-db57-4189-92dd-1480e68905ed","character_id":null,"markdown":"![完成Moduleから高付加価値部品への移動 01](/media/da62bf8fc7d95aaec30841af1fee928372d1558050e6c4256e128dc9a34f742d-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_17e61334-dd58-409f-b408-5059faed175c","kind":"heading","order":267,"section_id":"sec_3d6b6d29-b2e3-44d1-b5c1-bf2d01527f9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 16　「Ciscoが圧倒的だった」という話は何なのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f94b2165-424d-4fc7-8a48-e467d6b9dc0e","kind":"paragraph","order":268,"section_id":"sec_3d6b6d29-b2e3-44d1-b5c1-bf2d01527f9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"これは市場の定義を分ける必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_23812100-d576-4a0c-bc08-de6b41a0e568","kind":"paragraph","order":269,"section_id":"sec_3d6b6d29-b2e3-44d1-b5c1-bf2d01527f9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Ciscoが長年圧倒的だったのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_02b499e5-5256-4ad3-866e-8aa0f84d6a2c","kind":"paragraph","order":270,"section_id":"sec_3d6b6d29-b2e3-44d1-b5c1-bf2d01527f9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Ethernet SwitchやRouterなどネットワーク機器市場","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8b72784d-6530-4ed0-91b9-dda7fbcc07ea","kind":"paragraph","order":271,"section_id":"sec_3d6b6d29-b2e3-44d1-b5c1-bf2d01527f9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_54aa5db7-c53a-40bc-8de9-31743ca0a018","kind":"paragraph","order":272,"section_id":"sec_3d6b6d29-b2e3-44d1-b5c1-bf2d01527f9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えばOmdiaでは2022年のData Center Ethernet Switch市場でCiscoは売上シェア37%で首位だった。(Omdia)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b4d4028e-b6d7-456b-92b8-82ded912457a","kind":"paragraph","order":273,"section_id":"sec_3d6b6d29-b2e3-44d1-b5c1-bf2d01527f9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"CiscoのスイッチにCiscoブランドの光モジュールを挿す構成も広く使われたため、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0d335199-2db2-479a-a3a3-f595d883002e","kind":"paragraph","order":274,"section_id":"sec_3d6b6d29-b2e3-44d1-b5c1-bf2d01527f9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"「Ciscoが光も支配している」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_40c67bf8-8296-496f-ab8e-331dcb4c699b","kind":"paragraph","order":275,"section_id":"sec_3d6b6d29-b2e3-44d1-b5c1-bf2d01527f9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"ように見えやすかった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_00eae259-892f-476b-ac39-1e3da9d87ecf","kind":"paragraph","order":276,"section_id":"sec_3d6b6d29-b2e3-44d1-b5c1-bf2d01527f9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしmerchant optical transceiver製造市場を見れば別の歴史がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e2fe3cfc-fd99-468f-adea-d5bb03d7312c","kind":"paragraph","order":277,"section_id":"sec_3d6b6d29-b2e3-44d1-b5c1-bf2d01527f9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"2022年のLightCountingではInnolight、Coherent、Cisco、Huaweiの4社合計で世界の光トランシーバー市場の50%超であり、Cisco単独が圧倒的だったわけではない。(LightCounting)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_28c60f35-bd64-40d7-aa01-1b3c6d855b4c","kind":"paragraph","order":278,"section_id":"sec_3d6b6d29-b2e3-44d1-b5c1-bf2d01527f9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Cisco自身も2019年のLuxtera、2021年のAcacia取得によってSiPhやCoherent DSP/Opticsを強化した。Acaciaの買収額は約45億ドルだった。(Cisco Investor Relations)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9adb6d91-4c7e-4e0c-8391-e20d215f9499","kind":"paragraph","order":279,"section_id":"sec_3d6b6d29-b2e3-44d1-b5c1-bf2d01527f9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらに2026年のLightCountingランキングでは、Cisco、Ciena、Huawei、Marvell、Nokiaなど主要DWDMモジュール企業は高速Ethernetトランシーバーランキングとは別に集計されるようになっている。(LightCounting)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_74a8941f-4c90-4fc4-a1ba-911b00c19d63","kind":"paragraph","order":280,"section_id":"sec_3d6b6d29-b2e3-44d1-b5c1-bf2d01527f9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a4c18de6-65c7-4fe4-905f-febd4ffcf227","kind":"paragraph","order":281,"section_id":"sec_3d6b6d29-b2e3-44d1-b5c1-bf2d01527f9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Ciscoのネットワーク機器シェア","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_123d316d-988f-4b00-9210-7bb7cc82ed4d","kind":"paragraph","order":282,"section_id":"sec_3d6b6d29-b2e3-44d1-b5c1-bf2d01527f9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"と","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9c3b63b6-0398-4127-adea-daa15f6e1494","kind":"paragraph","order":283,"section_id":"sec_3d6b6d29-b2e3-44d1-b5c1-bf2d01527f9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"InnolightのAI Ethernetトランシーバーシェア","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_55cf25b4-0424-4f11-ba3b-dddb6a6ba292","kind":"paragraph","order":284,"section_id":"sec_3d6b6d29-b2e3-44d1-b5c1-bf2d01527f9a","character_id":null,"markdown":"を同じ数字として比較してはいけない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8627cb79-3217-412e-8e61-6183b8c1f2b3","kind":"heading","order":285,"section_id":"sec_7fce2034-40a6-4736-874e-8a3cb91614de","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Ciscoと光Module市場の違い","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7ee5f499-12f4-4a27-b8f0-a31c17643654","kind":"figure","order":286,"section_id":"sec_7fce2034-40a6-4736-874e-8a3cb91614de","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Ciscoと光Module市場の違い 01](/media/a1e90ddb570b470a2dd046fe8402f23b43ca9bd4a785475f81a69720cc128a7e-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9519f15d-b844-4760-9548-46e9ee65dcd2","kind":"heading","order":287,"section_id":"sec_3e0f32cb-2370-4b7a-9ace-388b97929b88","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 17　現在の市場シェアは「80%」なのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_58580bde-0726-4f67-8eef-dddc3477e468","kind":"paragraph","order":288,"section_id":"sec_3e0f32cb-2370-4b7a-9ace-388b97929b88","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここにも注意が必要だ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1a844a83-f5ab-4f47-a78d-350ed2e0c95e","kind":"paragraph","order":289,"section_id":"sec_3e0f32cb-2370-4b7a-9ace-388b97929b88","character_id":null,"markdown":"Innolight＋Eoptolinkで世界光トランシーバー市場の80%という数字を、公開されている信頼度の高い資料から確認することはできない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ed46ff01-c5b8-46b9-9f92-4f7bde1146a0","kind":"paragraph","order":290,"section_id":"sec_3e0f32cb-2370-4b7a-9ace-388b97929b88","character_id":null,"markdown":"Reutersが報じた推計ではInnolightが約27%。また中国企業全体では世界出荷量の半分超とされる。(Reuters)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0673bad7-4b07-48e2-aa5f-19529badfd62","kind":"paragraph","order":291,"section_id":"sec_3e0f32cb-2370-4b7a-9ace-388b97929b88","character_id":null,"markdown":"LightCountingでは2025年、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ba07e5da-d30f-41cd-a961-13cb1035ea74","kind":"paragraph","order":292,"section_id":"sec_3e0f32cb-2370-4b7a-9ace-388b97929b88","character_id":null,"markdown":"#1 Innolight\n#2 Eoptolink\n#3付近 Coherent\n#4 Accelink","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84a26932-c808-4fb8-a758-89fa510d1184","kind":"paragraph","order":293,"section_id":"sec_3e0f32cb-2370-4b7a-9ace-388b97929b88","character_id":null,"markdown":"という構図になっている。(LightCounting)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15d0e33e-658e-456a-abea-90fa0ea79df5","kind":"paragraph","order":294,"section_id":"sec_3e0f32cb-2370-4b7a-9ace-388b97929b88","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって「80%」という数字を見る場合は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_17fe111b-25f2-4e37-b98a-f0e3f4b9f054","kind":"paragraph","order":295,"section_id":"sec_3e0f32cb-2370-4b7a-9ace-388b97929b88","character_id":null,"markdown":"特定顧客、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12fcfc54-5161-4ad4-8120-504145365498","kind":"paragraph","order":296,"section_id":"sec_3e0f32cb-2370-4b7a-9ace-388b97929b88","character_id":null,"markdown":"800G/1.6Tなど特定速度帯、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_75644e1c-b86a-4532-9429-7231c01b4486","kind":"paragraph","order":297,"section_id":"sec_3e0f32cb-2370-4b7a-9ace-388b97929b88","character_id":null,"markdown":"特定フォームファクタ、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_012bf30a-d324-4a58-b206-14dcaba9445d","kind":"paragraph","order":298,"section_id":"sec_3e0f32cb-2370-4b7a-9ace-388b97929b88","character_id":null,"markdown":"特定AIクラスタ、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5fc6cb4-2c69-47ff-97d0-10355ff1c74d","kind":"paragraph","order":299,"section_id":"sec_3e0f32cb-2370-4b7a-9ace-388b97929b88","character_id":null,"markdown":"特定四半期","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bf1e1227-d5cb-4b3f-8801-15e083a34913","kind":"paragraph","order":300,"section_id":"sec_3e0f32cb-2370-4b7a-9ace-388b97929b88","character_id":null,"markdown":"のシェアである可能性を確認する必要がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_63d44e70-412d-4d05-9e3c-a49d2ac8ad9d","kind":"paragraph","order":301,"section_id":"sec_3e0f32cb-2370-4b7a-9ace-388b97929b88","character_id":null,"markdown":"市場全体の数字と混ぜない方がよい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cec797ac-05b9-4ba4-9b12-737230a2b932","kind":"heading","order":302,"section_id":"sec_d896c34a-ff24-465d-9f28-2f0432b92889","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜市場シェア数字の読み分け","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a6fd3435-80c6-4ffb-85d8-d72ef396b2bf","kind":"figure","order":303,"section_id":"sec_d896c34a-ff24-465d-9f28-2f0432b92889","character_id":null,"markdown":"![市場シェア数字の読み分け 01](/media/5d5f6a1471a9156c425f621bfff17d6e82da327b0262f669a8e6e29b1fbf98c8-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_25e084d3-6d6b-4af8-9ab6-ba91001bbd99","kind":"heading","order":304,"section_id":"sec_d6b7ea43-e5af-46b3-bca4-68861d3bd9e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 18　AIデータセンターの通信をGPUから追ってみる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c189f4dd-0a9e-46f7-bc09-d8e515f39e1a","kind":"paragraph","order":305,"section_id":"sec_d6b7ea43-e5af-46b3-bca4-68861d3bd9e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここから実際の通信経路へ入ろう。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7da4d6e1-1d32-4fec-ac70-b5b5c8b711f6","kind":"paragraph","order":306,"section_id":"sec_d6b7ea43-e5af-46b3-bca4-68861d3bd9e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"最も基本的なscale-out通信は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_996a6464-f70a-4302-b553-9f3575e9a2d0","kind":"paragraph","order":307,"section_id":"sec_d6b7ea43-e5af-46b3-bca4-68861d3bd9e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU Memory\n   │\n   ▼\nGPU\n   │\n   │ PCIe\n   ▼\nNIC / SuperNIC\n   │\n   │ Ethernet / InfiniBand\n   ▼\nOptical Transceiver\n   │\n   │ Fiber\n   ▼\nLeaf Switch\n   │\n   ▼\nSpine Switch\n   │\n   ▼\nLeaf Switch\n   │\n   ▼\nNIC\n   │\n   │ PCIe\n   ▼\nGPU","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_23e97222-ddca-4f8c-9d7f-b626228ff339","kind":"paragraph","order":308,"section_id":"sec_d6b7ea43-e5af-46b3-bca4-68861d3bd9e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"と考えればよい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3b160a56-1168-4ab2-9031-5ff0d9715847","kind":"paragraph","order":309,"section_id":"sec_d6b7ea43-e5af-46b3-bca4-68861d3bd9e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただしNVLinkを使う場合は、これとは別に非常に高速なscale-up networkが存在する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8541a649-d94f-4801-809b-a0aed31206d4","kind":"heading","order":310,"section_id":"sec_4e543df6-94fb-41ed-a6ca-d9364811868b","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜GPUからFiberへ進む通信経路","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b2a13bd9-d01c-443b-a0b5-875022c19cb9","kind":"figure","order":311,"section_id":"sec_4e543df6-94fb-41ed-a6ca-d9364811868b","character_id":null,"markdown":"![GPUからFiberへ進む通信経路 01](/media/fbbf9cdad6c77fb25f9f23cb7fe49acbcbe20baf47038879614a56fe83c3355a-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f5ca5aa6-4d76-45b5-b7c7-c92a412d1a8b","kind":"heading","order":312,"section_id":"sec_bdbb1a96-59e6-4404-b855-bfe8896cba26","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 19　HBMからまずGPUへ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_485e3cb7-5656-49a5-8af3-2f028894415b","kind":"paragraph","order":313,"section_id":"sec_bdbb1a96-59e6-4404-b855-bfe8896cba26","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPUがAI計算するとき、重み、Activation、Gradient、KV Cacheなどのデータは主にHBMへ置かれる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0a9656c8-3bf2-4ab8-954e-5be5a5e9a5ee","kind":"paragraph","order":314,"section_id":"sec_bdbb1a96-59e6-4404-b855-bfe8896cba26","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM\n │\n ▼\nGPU Compute Core","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_632b5ee8-a547-4ea9-83e0-579c6c2776e0","kind":"paragraph","order":315,"section_id":"sec_bdbb1a96-59e6-4404-b855-bfe8896cba26","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU内部ではHBM帯域が計算性能を左右する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_45d3b65d-0ee6-48a4-a6ee-7184d43cac83","kind":"paragraph","order":316,"section_id":"sec_bdbb1a96-59e6-4404-b855-bfe8896cba26","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし別GPUへデータを送りたい場合、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2f2d12d4-f116-4718-9450-462233d65be6","kind":"paragraph","order":317,"section_id":"sec_bdbb1a96-59e6-4404-b855-bfe8896cba26","character_id":null,"markdown":"同一NVLink domain内なのか、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8581b24c-6958-44ad-94e8-f96267c733c5","kind":"paragraph","order":318,"section_id":"sec_bdbb1a96-59e6-4404-b855-bfe8896cba26","character_id":null,"markdown":"別rack・別nodeなのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f79b0eac-654e-45e5-a5cb-294a08052351","kind":"paragraph","order":319,"section_id":"sec_bdbb1a96-59e6-4404-b855-bfe8896cba26","character_id":null,"markdown":"によって経路が変わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_56088b7f-a7aa-4b19-b29d-d41720f6acfe","kind":"heading","order":320,"section_id":"sec_294e3a6b-10ad-4c59-980a-9fc42d551506","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜HBMからGPUへの供給","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_beb42ef0-39b7-48b8-b54b-0a65d673dd80","kind":"figure","order":321,"section_id":"sec_294e3a6b-10ad-4c59-980a-9fc42d551506","character_id":null,"markdown":"![HBMからGPUへの供給 01](/media/1191938ac8d3d770f380e1ace283af6c4294cd1a0bd93235b8cb0be25315f373-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ebb04b53-4515-46aa-9c7d-74e48363c7ee","kind":"heading","order":322,"section_id":"sec_1933aa97-fe0e-4b56-b846-fb93127044f2","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 20　NVLinkはEthernetとは別物","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e27d7258-f475-4e84-b484-7aa540a89099","kind":"paragraph","order":323,"section_id":"sec_1933aa97-fe0e-4b56-b846-fb93127044f2","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVIDIA GPU同士を非常に高速につなぐのがNVLinkである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9fadf6b6-19a7-45ed-a9ea-5a64e0200782","kind":"paragraph","order":324,"section_id":"sec_1933aa97-fe0e-4b56-b846-fb93127044f2","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在のNVLinkはGPU間のscale-up interconnectであり、NVIDIAは最新世代でGPUあたり最大3.6TB/sの双方向bandwidthを掲げている。Blackwell世代のNVLink 5はGPUあたり1.8TB/s、Rubin世代NVLink 6では3.6TB/sへ拡張される。(nvidia.com)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_68c05f93-136a-4c6d-94d8-b709a0a728cf","kind":"paragraph","order":325,"section_id":"sec_1933aa97-fe0e-4b56-b846-fb93127044f2","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えばGB200 NVL72なら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_67913627-c62f-4208-bad9-0fb63a3325e8","kind":"paragraph","order":326,"section_id":"sec_1933aa97-fe0e-4b56-b846-fb93127044f2","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU ─┐\nGPU ─┤\nGPU ─┤\n     │\n NVLink Switch\n     │\nGPU ─┤\nGPU ─┤\n...  │","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_936bf7bd-06ed-4b40-a872-adf029d2425c","kind":"paragraph","order":327,"section_id":"sec_1933aa97-fe0e-4b56-b846-fb93127044f2","character_id":null,"markdown":"と72GPUを巨大な一つのscale-up domainとして接続する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d33331f3-3c09-4a52-baf3-5617e8c23fe7","kind":"paragraph","order":328,"section_id":"sec_1933aa97-fe0e-4b56-b846-fb93127044f2","character_id":null,"markdown":"Blackwell NVL72では72GPU間で総計130TB/sのNVLink fabricが構成される。(NVIDIA Developer)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1557b750-2eb6-487e-a56e-2e0134d7466f","kind":"paragraph","order":329,"section_id":"sec_1933aa97-fe0e-4b56-b846-fb93127044f2","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり同じNVLink domain内なら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_796b5312-54ef-4e47-82ec-2c5c4fd6d4da","kind":"paragraph","order":330,"section_id":"sec_1933aa97-fe0e-4b56-b846-fb93127044f2","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU → NIC → Ethernet → Leaf","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_811ddec6-3831-401b-970d-22abc352739a","kind":"paragraph","order":331,"section_id":"sec_1933aa97-fe0e-4b56-b846-fb93127044f2","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ出る必要がない場合がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1194f1a1-d8c5-40e8-9cd5-e067d4710cf6","kind":"heading","order":332,"section_id":"sec_c1235457-69b8-4de9-ac90-fe97d9173c49","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜NVLinkとEthernet","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eab56122-da7e-4aaa-842d-caaec4c3cd2b","kind":"figure","order":333,"section_id":"sec_c1235457-69b8-4de9-ac90-fe97d9173c49","character_id":null,"markdown":"![NVLinkとEthernet 01](/media/96c8b71fe980556489f3908c54b8dfe0ee8ec1081fd26f833311d0c2ca0d6c5a-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ce17404-b1f0-4b0b-baf0-22b59cc6943e","kind":"heading","order":334,"section_id":"sec_c85648f5-ad76-445a-a543-1ea99d074776","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 21　Scale-upとScale-outを分ける","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84157af4-3535-4430-84cd-fab7f91560fd","kind":"paragraph","order":335,"section_id":"sec_c85648f5-ad76-445a-a543-1ea99d074776","character_id":null,"markdown":"非常に単純化すると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5df2e0da-7f65-48ba-ab30-2456da1cf7cb","kind":"paragraph","order":336,"section_id":"sec_c85648f5-ad76-445a-a543-1ea99d074776","character_id":null,"markdown":"Scale-up","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8c04ef8-9c25-4353-b3ca-3016c1be1bc0","kind":"paragraph","order":337,"section_id":"sec_c85648f5-ad76-445a-a543-1ea99d074776","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU ─ NVLink ─ GPU\n │              │\n └── NVSwitch ──┘","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_80677c92-e980-4443-914b-25b90af9d554","kind":"paragraph","order":338,"section_id":"sec_c85648f5-ad76-445a-a543-1ea99d074776","character_id":null,"markdown":"Scale-out","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5846fb3d-1198-40dd-9641-726ccbd1170c","kind":"paragraph","order":339,"section_id":"sec_c85648f5-ad76-445a-a543-1ea99d074776","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU\n ↓\nNIC\n ↓\nLeaf\n ↓\nSpine\n ↓\nLeaf\n ↓\nNIC\n ↓\nGPU","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4ceea492-bd7e-4529-93f9-576ea6c4af3d","kind":"paragraph","order":340,"section_id":"sec_c85648f5-ad76-445a-a543-1ea99d074776","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_570651c8-364b-4c06-a9e1-9df23c66ccf9","kind":"paragraph","order":341,"section_id":"sec_c85648f5-ad76-445a-a543-1ea99d074776","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVLinkは「一つの巨大GPUコンピュータを作る」ための通信。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5c70004b-1891-4841-97c3-541860cc7dda","kind":"paragraph","order":342,"section_id":"sec_c85648f5-ad76-445a-a543-1ea99d074776","character_id":null,"markdown":"Ethernet/InfiniBandは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9db58f34-8cc4-48e9-a3b2-f8aa033bb89e","kind":"paragraph","order":343,"section_id":"sec_c85648f5-ad76-445a-a543-1ea99d074776","character_id":null,"markdown":"その巨大GPUコンピュータ同士をさらに多数接続する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7d1f7641-93af-41ca-8b0d-581d30fbfc2c","kind":"paragraph","order":344,"section_id":"sec_c85648f5-ad76-445a-a543-1ea99d074776","character_id":null,"markdown":"通信である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dcfb288c-79a6-4c91-9954-ab913518e19d","kind":"paragraph","order":345,"section_id":"sec_c85648f5-ad76-445a-a543-1ea99d074776","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIデータセンターでは両方が必要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2bb7ee23-57d5-4090-95da-a09f8d0510ef","kind":"heading","order":346,"section_id":"sec_6624a12e-a542-475f-95c9-2501c5966d27","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Scale-upとScale-out","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_98633df8-48e1-4a7c-98a4-2da2646c2ce1","kind":"figure","order":347,"section_id":"sec_6624a12e-a542-475f-95c9-2501c5966d27","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Scale-upとScale-out 01](/media/74068b7630e98ff43a990aabea0cc79f9e03891409fd98055f2ca67a51925fb7-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_332f91f2-3ef5-430e-a3f8-0153c1df55dd","kind":"heading","order":348,"section_id":"sec_2967ac71-e9a1-4b1a-af0a-d72de0e026d4","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 22　PCIeはどこに入るのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1a6acece-57af-491a-a6c9-ae70c1068d7f","kind":"paragraph","order":349,"section_id":"sec_2967ac71-e9a1-4b1a-af0a-d72de0e026d4","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPUとNICの間ではPCIeが重要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c6f5d120-cb7f-4332-a123-697ce937771f","kind":"paragraph","order":350,"section_id":"sec_2967ac71-e9a1-4b1a-af0a-d72de0e026d4","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU\n │\n │ PCIe\n ▼\nNIC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fb165574-280c-4e52-9b03-3d50c40829bc","kind":"paragraph","order":351,"section_id":"sec_2967ac71-e9a1-4b1a-af0a-d72de0e026d4","character_id":null,"markdown":"PCIe 6.0は64GT/s、x16構成で最大256GB/sの双方向bandwidthを持ち、PAM4とFECを採用している。(PCI-SIG)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_94373dc7-4449-4d60-916e-eabedf3a43f7","kind":"paragraph","order":352,"section_id":"sec_2967ac71-e9a1-4b1a-af0a-d72de0e026d4","character_id":null,"markdown":"PCIeは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_de7b0ad4-f2fc-4c0f-8ee2-74f11b078450","kind":"paragraph","order":353,"section_id":"sec_2967ac71-e9a1-4b1a-af0a-d72de0e026d4","character_id":null,"markdown":"サーバー内部の高速I/O","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_91a8f452-e7b8-4855-a2a6-54e845cd9b66","kind":"paragraph","order":354,"section_id":"sec_2967ac71-e9a1-4b1a-af0a-d72de0e026d4","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1b75c316-ebca-4051-849f-bb45266d2900","kind":"paragraph","order":355,"section_id":"sec_2967ac71-e9a1-4b1a-af0a-d72de0e026d4","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方Ethernetは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9360954f-d8a0-4cb5-9075-a43f96c8d01e","kind":"paragraph","order":356,"section_id":"sec_2967ac71-e9a1-4b1a-af0a-d72de0e026d4","character_id":null,"markdown":"サーバー外へ出るネットワーク","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_633e38c3-a68d-4be7-a5f4-d9aa74dd2855","kind":"paragraph","order":357,"section_id":"sec_2967ac71-e9a1-4b1a-af0a-d72de0e026d4","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_67a3b301-a570-4522-851e-9f95a5104445","kind":"paragraph","order":358,"section_id":"sec_2967ac71-e9a1-4b1a-af0a-d72de0e026d4","character_id":null,"markdown":"この境界にNICがいる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6bfb6c4d-af3e-474c-8357-f55c41a0cc8f","kind":"heading","order":359,"section_id":"sec_92a138fe-57a7-4191-a04d-b30d382817bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜GPUとNICを結ぶPCIe","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_512cb23f-8cd0-40c0-a2aa-c9f17e9dd175","kind":"figure","order":360,"section_id":"sec_92a138fe-57a7-4191-a04d-b30d382817bb","character_id":null,"markdown":"![GPUとNICを結ぶPCIe 01](/media/4699bb2abfb01de56b857abf734a44f4a1efbfbcb2f0b85fee1465a62bf896e4-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0350872-6a21-47d8-8865-ac41ba154347","kind":"heading","order":361,"section_id":"sec_0412b2f7-6004-464e-9898-674364c7b763","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 23　NICはPCIeとEthernet世界の橋","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_50a3b3ac-a550-4b7d-a0c5-abb088fd9af2","kind":"paragraph","order":362,"section_id":"sec_0412b2f7-6004-464e-9898-674364c7b763","character_id":null,"markdown":"NICはNetwork Interface Card。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a4094661-fa5e-4cc1-aa8e-a825ad4e5119","kind":"paragraph","order":363,"section_id":"sec_0412b2f7-6004-464e-9898-674364c7b763","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI用ならConnectXやBlueField、Spectrum-X SuperNICなどが該当する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a5d63c3d-14df-4ae4-a216-60e3d8cd0bf6","kind":"paragraph","order":364,"section_id":"sec_0412b2f7-6004-464e-9898-674364c7b763","character_id":null,"markdown":"概念的には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0886113e-73ea-4df8-ae10-c18b93db3d3e","kind":"paragraph","order":365,"section_id":"sec_0412b2f7-6004-464e-9898-674364c7b763","character_id":null,"markdown":"NIC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_87da421a-85d0-46cf-8bb8-32b02e2a056c","kind":"paragraph","order":366,"section_id":"sec_0412b2f7-6004-464e-9898-674364c7b763","character_id":null,"markdown":"┌─────────────────────────┐","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0605a512-aea6-4d9e-a7d1-172d31ea53df","kind":"paragraph","order":367,"section_id":"sec_0412b2f7-6004-464e-9898-674364c7b763","character_id":null,"markdown":"PCIe PHY\n   │\nDMA / RDMA Engine\n   │\nPacket Processing\n   │\nEthernet MAC\n   │\nPCS / PHY\n   │\nSerDes","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f773c4c-f143-469c-a611-d5184a6f7016","kind":"paragraph","order":368,"section_id":"sec_0412b2f7-6004-464e-9898-674364c7b763","character_id":null,"markdown":"└─────────────────────────┘","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c6b485c0-61be-4e12-aa95-7f8fc861776e","kind":"paragraph","order":369,"section_id":"sec_0412b2f7-6004-464e-9898-674364c7b763","character_id":null,"markdown":"という構造になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4fce64a8-3ebc-4c69-9aee-6963e5eb195f","kind":"paragraph","order":370,"section_id":"sec_0412b2f7-6004-464e-9898-674364c7b763","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPUのデータをPCIe経由で受け取ったNICは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d2fdcf6-9616-476d-af12-db1309eed1b7","kind":"paragraph","order":371,"section_id":"sec_0412b2f7-6004-464e-9898-674364c7b763","character_id":null,"markdown":"ネットワークで送れるEthernet/InfiniBand packetへ組み立て直す。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_31dd2747-4796-41c6-8871-68b73d88b5c2","kind":"paragraph","order":372,"section_id":"sec_0412b2f7-6004-464e-9898-674364c7b763","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPUDirect RDMAを使えば、CPU RAMへ一度コピーすることなくGPU memoryとNICの間で直接DMAできる。NVIDIAもGPUDirect RDMAをGPUとNICなどPCIe peer devices間の直接通信技術として説明している。(NVIDIA Developer)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c43d79d-5228-4463-b053-9b81696cd31c","kind":"heading","order":373,"section_id":"sec_cc906d2b-be47-4a5f-8934-249d65ceae25","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜NICの内部階層","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b7f8293-7f39-4bcd-b1a6-078b3bfb1475","kind":"figure","order":374,"section_id":"sec_cc906d2b-be47-4a5f-8934-249d65ceae25","character_id":null,"markdown":"![NICの内部階層 01](/media/9c942ef25b0ea71606d9fff3e36ded07999414f8789a2da97c5b3f90bf40d2cd-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_90dc2653-d485-4480-b9c6-baa37aee08a2","kind":"heading","order":375,"section_id":"sec_c7e9deeb-17e4-4087-a9da-1cd7360e2ac7","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 24　NICからLeafまではどうなるのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e9d46b8f-0544-461a-89f1-54d22c9da87c","kind":"paragraph","order":376,"section_id":"sec_c7e9deeb-17e4-4087-a9da-1cd7360e2ac7","character_id":null,"markdown":"光接続なら、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c7b9649-9a30-4620-abec-fe8918703313","kind":"paragraph","order":377,"section_id":"sec_c7e9deeb-17e4-4087-a9da-1cd7360e2ac7","character_id":null,"markdown":"NIC\n │\n ▼\nNIC SerDes\n │\n │ Electrical PAM4\n ▼\nOptical Transceiver\n │\n │ Optical PAM4\n ▼\nFiber\n │\n ▼\nLeaf Optical Transceiver\n │\n │ Electrical PAM4\n ▼\nLeaf Switch ASIC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d1fa7d6d-d5dd-4bbf-90b9-d3f622d0b8a7","kind":"paragraph","order":378,"section_id":"sec_c7e9deeb-17e4-4087-a9da-1cd7360e2ac7","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dfbdc3c0-7405-4d43-a455-3d8ff2aaefd8","kind":"paragraph","order":379,"section_id":"sec_c7e9deeb-17e4-4087-a9da-1cd7360e2ac7","character_id":null,"markdown":"つまり光トランシーバーは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bfe3b677-504b-4a64-ad1d-ab26476c8b0a","kind":"paragraph","order":380,"section_id":"sec_c7e9deeb-17e4-4087-a9da-1cd7360e2ac7","character_id":null,"markdown":"NICやSwitch ASICが作った電気bit列を光ファイバーで飛ばせる光信号にする橋","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bff102b8-6a25-4e2b-b1f4-8cfae1b195c2","kind":"paragraph","order":381,"section_id":"sec_c7e9deeb-17e4-4087-a9da-1cd7360e2ac7","character_id":null,"markdown":"なのである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d5eaf739-6fd8-44ac-aa3d-a5d517a02e18","kind":"heading","order":382,"section_id":"sec_7c1013c5-d800-48ad-b156-8aa248c2fb24","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜NICからLeafへの光変換","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8a0bf27e-a6da-4396-a7ed-02612de15d96","kind":"figure","order":383,"section_id":"sec_7c1013c5-d800-48ad-b156-8aa248c2fb24","character_id":null,"markdown":"![NICからLeafへの光変換 01](/media/165102c7991621ea92f444f9cf6019a53b663a9b47fd675dd58a698d511b7343-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_321be551-336c-4af9-b172-438bd3047cd8","kind":"heading","order":384,"section_id":"sec_42edf763-6c2c-4a93-9e1b-8b8b79a77249","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 25　光DSPはなぜ必要なのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d03cefe2-b48d-4ba2-8202-87755cfb4e01","kind":"paragraph","order":385,"section_id":"sec_42edf763-6c2c-4a93-9e1b-8b8b79a77249","character_id":null,"markdown":"200G/laneのPAM4ともなると、信号は非常にデリケートになる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_78524890-ef5b-4b8b-b64d-0904405760da","kind":"paragraph","order":386,"section_id":"sec_42edf763-6c2c-4a93-9e1b-8b8b79a77249","character_id":null,"markdown":"理想的なPAM4は4段階の電圧レベルを持つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_48983b12-1986-4f8e-b8cc-66d47e98e6da","kind":"paragraph","order":387,"section_id":"sec_42edf763-6c2c-4a93-9e1b-8b8b79a77249","character_id":null,"markdown":"Level 3\nLevel 2\nLevel 1\nLevel 0","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3554ce6f-0240-4541-951f-69b2ff305ec6","kind":"paragraph","order":388,"section_id":"sec_42edf763-6c2c-4a93-9e1b-8b8b79a77249","character_id":null,"markdown":"4状態なので一つのsymbolで2bitを表現できる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2c05290e-c6b8-4fb3-9a3d-0f695cdab812","kind":"paragraph","order":389,"section_id":"sec_42edf763-6c2c-4a93-9e1b-8b8b79a77249","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし実際の信号は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a23e32dd-90ef-4ee9-b304-d0f0d6966ad3","kind":"paragraph","order":390,"section_id":"sec_42edf763-6c2c-4a93-9e1b-8b8b79a77249","character_id":null,"markdown":"PCB、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b1717741-b593-4cf3-a0ac-d58b0eca4004","kind":"paragraph","order":391,"section_id":"sec_42edf763-6c2c-4a93-9e1b-8b8b79a77249","character_id":null,"markdown":"Connector、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_07f535ee-4bb1-4907-97de-7b27103a63e2","kind":"paragraph","order":392,"section_id":"sec_42edf763-6c2c-4a93-9e1b-8b8b79a77249","character_id":null,"markdown":"Driver、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c3a21807-2f4a-4c3c-ac28-69a5bd269c37","kind":"paragraph","order":393,"section_id":"sec_42edf763-6c2c-4a93-9e1b-8b8b79a77249","character_id":null,"markdown":"Modulator、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_579c4c1a-6353-436e-ac49-55e837c92250","kind":"paragraph","order":394,"section_id":"sec_42edf763-6c2c-4a93-9e1b-8b8b79a77249","character_id":null,"markdown":"Fiber、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_982e5af3-ed18-493e-97cb-4689fed82f18","kind":"paragraph","order":395,"section_id":"sec_42edf763-6c2c-4a93-9e1b-8b8b79a77249","character_id":null,"markdown":"Photodiode","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_63d137c2-e95d-47cb-ab9c-7cb48fe2ea32","kind":"paragraph","order":396,"section_id":"sec_42edf763-6c2c-4a93-9e1b-8b8b79a77249","character_id":null,"markdown":"などを通ることで歪む。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fe74a084-13b4-44ef-b302-e850466eb695","kind":"paragraph","order":397,"section_id":"sec_42edf763-6c2c-4a93-9e1b-8b8b79a77249","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこでOptical DSPがEqualization、CDR、gearbox、lane mappingなどを行って信号品質を確保する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_31929e9e-1f18-492b-8680-5563a0ddfb76","kind":"paragraph","order":398,"section_id":"sec_42edf763-6c2c-4a93-9e1b-8b8b79a77249","character_id":null,"markdown":"MarvellはPAM4 Optical DSPを400G、800G、1.6Tのpluggable moduleを成立させる中核として位置づけている。(Marvell Technology)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf9660fa-1966-4dbd-a080-dbe2e662778c","kind":"heading","order":399,"section_id":"sec_852e8594-02d2-4243-bf7b-d91200d6fcb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜高速PAM4補正の中核","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_33c1c501-d0b1-4bd5-a4c1-76f228eab658","kind":"figure","order":400,"section_id":"sec_852e8594-02d2-4243-bf7b-d91200d6fcb7","character_id":null,"markdown":"![高速PAM4補正の中核 01](/media/2d3d48d43604f169f85a510edb8f5e1f917788d527ade355a8d5c436c4c2335d-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8619ef04-5302-45de-b706-fa708dc6f83f","kind":"heading","order":401,"section_id":"sec_311f9816-4849-42ef-bd9e-e01bd2ea3688","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 26　OSFPとは何なのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0ac4adf5-b958-4f49-be47-768a512fe4e3","kind":"paragraph","order":402,"section_id":"sec_311f9816-4849-42ef-bd9e-e01bd2ea3688","character_id":null,"markdown":"OSFPはOptical Technologyではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4398ce76-8610-412b-a1dc-a7f09ddfecc9","kind":"paragraph","order":403,"section_id":"sec_311f9816-4849-42ef-bd9e-e01bd2ea3688","character_id":null,"markdown":"フォームファクタ規格","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_aca9635e-a650-428e-af1b-cf09832d42ad","kind":"paragraph","order":404,"section_id":"sec_311f9816-4849-42ef-bd9e-e01bd2ea3688","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_10736074-93a0-48e9-9f2d-e82a938648ba","kind":"paragraph","order":405,"section_id":"sec_311f9816-4849-42ef-bd9e-e01bd2ea3688","character_id":null,"markdown":"正式には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_15cc85e8-76d0-46be-b635-80c004d08f54","kind":"paragraph","order":406,"section_id":"sec_311f9816-4849-42ef-bd9e-e01bd2ea3688","character_id":null,"markdown":"Octal Small Form Factor Pluggable","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_616f59d7-475b-4e23-8916-34ec14328bdd","kind":"paragraph","order":407,"section_id":"sec_311f9816-4849-42ef-bd9e-e01bd2ea3688","character_id":null,"markdown":"で、8本の高速電気レーンを持つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_343c2fa4-8dd7-45d3-b482-bf17e9111b85","kind":"paragraph","order":408,"section_id":"sec_311f9816-4849-42ef-bd9e-e01bd2ea3688","character_id":null,"markdown":"OSFPは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b036e1bf-28b0-4215-b9e6-f970c6cb376c","kind":"paragraph","order":409,"section_id":"sec_311f9816-4849-42ef-bd9e-e01bd2ea3688","character_id":null,"markdown":"Switch Front Panel","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a29d6ca4-8b47-4cbf-a2ed-b2f491c54efd","kind":"paragraph","order":410,"section_id":"sec_311f9816-4849-42ef-bd9e-e01bd2ea3688","character_id":null,"markdown":"[OSFP][OSFP][OSFP][OSFP]\n[OSFP][OSFP][OSFP][OSFP]","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_86fb0248-95b4-49ad-a980-33f9928cd8db","kind":"paragraph","order":411,"section_id":"sec_311f9816-4849-42ef-bd9e-e01bd2ea3688","character_id":null,"markdown":"のようにスイッチ前面へ差し込む。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8b03eae3-3e88-4f02-9a35-32e694915b0a","kind":"paragraph","order":412,"section_id":"sec_311f9816-4849-42ef-bd9e-e01bd2ea3688","character_id":null,"markdown":"規格では電気コネクタ、機械寸法、電源、熱設計などが定義される。(OSFPmsa)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d27b12b-bf94-4342-b2b4-9b3461591bd4","kind":"paragraph","order":413,"section_id":"sec_311f9816-4849-42ef-bd9e-e01bd2ea3688","character_id":null,"markdown":"OSFP内部には、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2d00fb4c-5592-4ea9-bb0b-4a81123af615","kind":"paragraph","order":414,"section_id":"sec_311f9816-4849-42ef-bd9e-e01bd2ea3688","character_id":null,"markdown":"DSP\nLaser\nSiPh / EML\nDriver\nTIA\nPD\nControl IC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_41f6857c-80f1-4187-8652-b9728d843761","kind":"paragraph","order":415,"section_id":"sec_311f9816-4849-42ef-bd9e-e01bd2ea3688","character_id":null,"markdown":"などが入る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cfed06cd-ed55-428e-8680-f86204cfbd34","kind":"paragraph","order":416,"section_id":"sec_311f9816-4849-42ef-bd9e-e01bd2ea3688","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3f8b62a6-8a6a-488e-931b-4fa00321250e","kind":"paragraph","order":417,"section_id":"sec_311f9816-4849-42ef-bd9e-e01bd2ea3688","character_id":null,"markdown":"Innolightが1.6T OSFPを売る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5733c490-7240-4010-9933-d3ecb4a9d2a3","kind":"paragraph","order":418,"section_id":"sec_311f9816-4849-42ef-bd9e-e01bd2ea3688","character_id":null,"markdown":"というのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_27d72481-9616-4f35-8085-0ad977a38793","kind":"paragraph","order":419,"section_id":"sec_311f9816-4849-42ef-bd9e-e01bd2ea3688","character_id":null,"markdown":"「OSFPという標準的な形の中へ必要な部品を統合した1.6T完成トランシーバーを売る」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9c390b3c-321c-4a08-a9bc-e82da507b60b","kind":"paragraph","order":420,"section_id":"sec_311f9816-4849-42ef-bd9e-e01bd2ea3688","character_id":null,"markdown":"という意味である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6f69170e-be9f-4f15-bbba-2e2b6c9e63da","kind":"heading","order":421,"section_id":"sec_0712bc79-b54a-499e-aa09-9422907e01e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜OSFPの外形と内部","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_175519c7-f4b6-404a-ae45-39d60115d73d","kind":"figure","order":422,"section_id":"sec_0712bc79-b54a-499e-aa09-9422907e01e4","character_id":null,"markdown":"![OSFPの外形と内部 01](/media/aeb1a23c26c088c63044a835132a38a9d73a80fc80cad13e57e98b3475b7c224-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7dc3a937-38da-4dbb-986f-21dd87d7af66","kind":"heading","order":423,"section_id":"sec_b4b4fc06-d9a7-4f30-8a92-e08fc0321a08","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 27　Leaf Switchは何をしているのか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a19d2b2c-e2ba-41e3-92b6-e3e41760eeec","kind":"paragraph","order":424,"section_id":"sec_b4b4fc06-d9a7-4f30-8a92-e08fc0321a08","character_id":null,"markdown":"LeafはGPUサーバーに近い最初のネットワークスイッチである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_211a7226-d2d9-4fa1-876c-2e2581dc2fa7","kind":"paragraph","order":425,"section_id":"sec_b4b4fc06-d9a7-4f30-8a92-e08fc0321a08","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d97b2454-3cfc-4470-bcb5-94833cc4794c","kind":"paragraph","order":426,"section_id":"sec_b4b4fc06-d9a7-4f30-8a92-e08fc0321a08","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU Server ─┐\nGPU Server ─┤\nGPU Server ─┤\nGPU Server ─┤\n            ▼\n          Leaf","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_566d6bd6-4d63-4d03-9805-43a35b279010","kind":"paragraph","order":427,"section_id":"sec_b4b4fc06-d9a7-4f30-8a92-e08fc0321a08","character_id":null,"markdown":"となる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9357145d-442f-4513-a342-90efc0d3e4f8","kind":"paragraph","order":428,"section_id":"sec_b4b4fc06-d9a7-4f30-8a92-e08fc0321a08","character_id":null,"markdown":"LeafのSwitch ASICは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5cd1b207-a1ad-4453-b96e-0bf6b5403eb6","kind":"paragraph","order":429,"section_id":"sec_b4b4fc06-d9a7-4f30-8a92-e08fc0321a08","character_id":null,"markdown":"「このパケットの宛先は同じLeaf配下か」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d64b5c81-85de-45da-bdbd-8f4ab6d0e249","kind":"paragraph","order":430,"section_id":"sec_b4b4fc06-d9a7-4f30-8a92-e08fc0321a08","character_id":null,"markdown":"「別のLeafか」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_92d26de1-d3ac-474c-8a4e-9956077e415d","kind":"paragraph","order":431,"section_id":"sec_b4b4fc06-d9a7-4f30-8a92-e08fc0321a08","character_id":null,"markdown":"を判断する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ce2fc53f-6bc9-401b-8af0-8da766cfdae5","kind":"paragraph","order":432,"section_id":"sec_b4b4fc06-d9a7-4f30-8a92-e08fc0321a08","character_id":null,"markdown":"同じLeafなら直接送る。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eca3d813-92ed-4f58-b6aa-4c53a11f34bb","kind":"paragraph","order":433,"section_id":"sec_b4b4fc06-d9a7-4f30-8a92-e08fc0321a08","character_id":null,"markdown":"別LeafならSpineへ上げる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bcfdabd4-3316-4b62-9cfb-b07b49275617","kind":"heading","order":434,"section_id":"sec_ccf49820-8fc9-42cf-a220-90ae182292f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Leaf Switchの役割","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a767d7c9-6582-4452-93bb-4778c3022a5c","kind":"figure","order":435,"section_id":"sec_ccf49820-8fc9-42cf-a220-90ae182292f3","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Leaf Switchの役割 01](/media/204f5efd9036ef24ffa3515a70310a56c8916347338c53ad70219adfe02abf25-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c17bc2a3-e548-4582-bcfc-b84a847183ec","kind":"heading","order":436,"section_id":"sec_850d022d-ec03-4bc2-b6b2-6fbf319f5756","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 28　SpineはLeaf同士をつなぐ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_62635e6b-3b15-41e3-8750-82e51dd68490","kind":"paragraph","order":437,"section_id":"sec_850d022d-ec03-4bc2-b6b2-6fbf319f5756","character_id":null,"markdown":"例えば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3768c6b6-2497-46ac-9cf3-517064a9d569","kind":"paragraph","order":438,"section_id":"sec_850d022d-ec03-4bc2-b6b2-6fbf319f5756","character_id":null,"markdown":"Spine 1\n       ／    │    ＼\n      /      │      \\\n  Leaf 1   Leaf 2   Leaf 3\n   │││      │││      │││\n  GPU      GPU      GPU","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8dc74058-c156-4bff-a132-2ef6dcdb9d82","kind":"paragraph","order":439,"section_id":"sec_850d022d-ec03-4bc2-b6b2-6fbf319f5756","character_id":null,"markdown":"という構造になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d7ca68d6-46c6-4b31-9312-e69b97279c42","kind":"paragraph","order":440,"section_id":"sec_850d022d-ec03-4bc2-b6b2-6fbf319f5756","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際には帯域と冗長性を確保するため複数Spineを並列化する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_057e77b2-819b-4062-973c-845567b4ccfd","kind":"paragraph","order":441,"section_id":"sec_850d022d-ec03-4bc2-b6b2-6fbf319f5756","character_id":null,"markdown":"NVIDIAのAI FactoryリファレンスでもGPU compute networkはRDMAベースのspine-leaf architectureとして構成される。(NVIDIA Docs)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c323337d-7743-4517-a505-f40bb8eb9faa","kind":"paragraph","order":442,"section_id":"sec_850d022d-ec03-4bc2-b6b2-6fbf319f5756","character_id":null,"markdown":"重要なのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4d9373a5-6f74-45a1-bdee-e6e3240bb3f2","kind":"paragraph","order":443,"section_id":"sec_850d022d-ec03-4bc2-b6b2-6fbf319f5756","character_id":null,"markdown":"Spineが信号を単純に増幅しているわけではない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e82010b0-41cf-407a-892e-0e0848f00950","kind":"paragraph","order":444,"section_id":"sec_850d022d-ec03-4bc2-b6b2-6fbf319f5756","character_id":null,"markdown":"ということだ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0ab1038e-86a0-4100-8d9e-1ae340e3ac82","kind":"paragraph","order":445,"section_id":"sec_850d022d-ec03-4bc2-b6b2-6fbf319f5756","character_id":null,"markdown":"SpineもSwitch ASICでパケットを受け取り、宛先を判断し、適切なLeafへ再送信する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d7a2c09c-5748-4753-8bd3-42675abf5e20","kind":"heading","order":446,"section_id":"sec_88406772-1f1d-47a2-b967-97abf267f70b","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Spine Switchの役割","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d3536a00-fea2-4f05-bc87-2d5f086cdd67","kind":"figure","order":447,"section_id":"sec_88406772-1f1d-47a2-b967-97abf267f70b","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Spine Switchの役割 01](/media/0aca18fbe743c066f0c7662cdfabf66db1f1a5d45f81ad4b9f97e60802c27862-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d4b129fb-ce60-45b7-b2e1-f4493603463d","kind":"heading","order":448,"section_id":"sec_32a08cb4-7e2e-4e24-8c12-2fdb870f3158","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 29　GPU AからGPU Bまで一気に追う","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c952b34f-df2e-47b3-8057-2d7199ccad7d","kind":"paragraph","order":449,"section_id":"sec_32a08cb4-7e2e-4e24-8c12-2fdb870f3158","character_id":null,"markdown":"別rackにあるGPUへGradientを送るとしよう。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71c3a45c-737e-4dce-bf83-9c7d7dd1e6be","kind":"paragraph","order":450,"section_id":"sec_32a08cb4-7e2e-4e24-8c12-2fdb870f3158","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU A HBM\n    │\n    ▼\nGPU A\n    │\n    │ PCIe\n    ▼\nNIC A\n    │\n    │ Packet化\n    ▼\nNIC SerDes\n    │\n    ▼\n1.6T Optical Transceiver\n    │\n    │ 電気 → 光\n    ▼\nFiber\n    │\n    ▼\nLeaf A\n    │\n    │ 宛先判断\n    ▼\n1.6T Optical Transceiver\n    │\n    ▼\nFiber\n    │\n    ▼\nSpine\n    │\n    │ 宛先Leaf判断\n    ▼\nFiber\n    │\n    ▼\nLeaf B\n    │\n    ▼\nNIC B\n    │\n    │ PCIe\n    ▼\nGPU B\n    │\n    ▼\nGPU B HBM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1c3a5815-4f60-4ed8-b05a-849bd690029e","kind":"paragraph","order":451,"section_id":"sec_32a08cb4-7e2e-4e24-8c12-2fdb870f3158","character_id":null,"markdown":"一つのAI通信の裏側だけでも、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6faebb18-1e04-464d-97d1-9706ec21ff1a","kind":"paragraph","order":452,"section_id":"sec_32a08cb4-7e2e-4e24-8c12-2fdb870f3158","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3218a2a9-51a4-4d14-9fa4-e14eebf1f10f","kind":"paragraph","order":453,"section_id":"sec_32a08cb4-7e2e-4e24-8c12-2fdb870f3158","character_id":null,"markdown":"HBM、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1618403c-06f1-4afc-99a9-4954cb466041","kind":"paragraph","order":454,"section_id":"sec_32a08cb4-7e2e-4e24-8c12-2fdb870f3158","character_id":null,"markdown":"PCIe、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a470806f-06a7-4e2d-8227-56f1a159bf7b","kind":"paragraph","order":455,"section_id":"sec_32a08cb4-7e2e-4e24-8c12-2fdb870f3158","character_id":null,"markdown":"NIC、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0dc1ab5a-f5e2-43cd-879b-93aebefc6d1f","kind":"paragraph","order":456,"section_id":"sec_32a08cb4-7e2e-4e24-8c12-2fdb870f3158","character_id":null,"markdown":"SerDes、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5ea55461-5698-4324-a225-d1de2ef5b05b","kind":"paragraph","order":457,"section_id":"sec_32a08cb4-7e2e-4e24-8c12-2fdb870f3158","character_id":null,"markdown":"PHY、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_08b0bffa-0c6e-4bb6-ae3e-4a7f48ff2283","kind":"paragraph","order":458,"section_id":"sec_32a08cb4-7e2e-4e24-8c12-2fdb870f3158","character_id":null,"markdown":"Optical DSP、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_80c9b099-0642-4239-85fe-5e6cd27a4b11","kind":"paragraph","order":459,"section_id":"sec_32a08cb4-7e2e-4e24-8c12-2fdb870f3158","character_id":null,"markdown":"Laser、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4fa39763-ed6f-420b-ba4e-c1ed73d51e72","kind":"paragraph","order":460,"section_id":"sec_32a08cb4-7e2e-4e24-8c12-2fdb870f3158","character_id":null,"markdown":"Modulator、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_de98b027-9ade-4d1f-8b28-c7ebd06183bb","kind":"paragraph","order":461,"section_id":"sec_32a08cb4-7e2e-4e24-8c12-2fdb870f3158","character_id":null,"markdown":"Fiber、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ac7c69b0-8235-4ba1-9c27-ad8fe9e0dc61","kind":"paragraph","order":462,"section_id":"sec_32a08cb4-7e2e-4e24-8c12-2fdb870f3158","character_id":null,"markdown":"Switch ASIC","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2a387165-f5c2-448e-82ed-2fa2c0d618f8","kind":"paragraph","order":463,"section_id":"sec_32a08cb4-7e2e-4e24-8c12-2fdb870f3158","character_id":null,"markdown":"という巨大な産業が関与している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5541f070-0ca5-4922-8c50-adc0764c308c","kind":"heading","order":464,"section_id":"sec_959b244a-c796-4b7d-af7e-902ea0ff2870","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜AI通信の全経路","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_76aa9db7-dede-4608-9682-72c99f2309d2","kind":"figure","order":465,"section_id":"sec_959b244a-c796-4b7d-af7e-902ea0ff2870","character_id":null,"markdown":"![AI通信の全経路 01](/media/83464b0fd34e8e47e16c2fb584393fe7fcc610b13fd27ed2088543fd1dfc9a61-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9cdb482c-14f3-4f63-9aaa-acddb17a73e1","kind":"heading","order":466,"section_id":"sec_3f405d80-fcac-4ee8-839c-9bf43000d5b6","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 30　ここでInnolight/Eoptolinkの価値が見えてくる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ed043766-432c-4dab-b2c5-833ca041d264","kind":"paragraph","order":467,"section_id":"sec_3f405d80-fcac-4ee8-839c-9bf43000d5b6","character_id":null,"markdown":"InnolightやEoptolinkはSwitch ASICを作っているわけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c5281cc9-0fc0-4af3-a440-52b62a0f2899","kind":"paragraph","order":468,"section_id":"sec_3f405d80-fcac-4ee8-839c-9bf43000d5b6","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかし、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_00d2be44-c036-4410-8181-696ed447e0d9","kind":"paragraph","order":469,"section_id":"sec_3f405d80-fcac-4ee8-839c-9bf43000d5b6","character_id":null,"markdown":"DSP\n+\nLaser\n+\nEML / SiPh\n+\nDriver\n+\nTIA\n+\nPD\n+\nPCB\n+\nFirmware\n+\nFiber Coupling\n+\nThermal Design\n+\nAssembly\n+\nBurn-in\n+\nTesting","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_599be9a3-6292-48df-997d-0db5ec0d167e","kind":"paragraph","order":470,"section_id":"sec_3f405d80-fcac-4ee8-839c-9bf43000d5b6","character_id":null,"markdown":"を、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_14f1d7aa-b73e-4a0f-8348-f5503a498467","kind":"paragraph","order":471,"section_id":"sec_3f405d80-fcac-4ee8-839c-9bf43000d5b6","character_id":null,"markdown":"小さなOSFP一個として数百万個単位で安定して作る","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c663534b-5bc8-4191-8e1f-53399770faca","kind":"paragraph","order":472,"section_id":"sec_3f405d80-fcac-4ee8-839c-9bf43000d5b6","character_id":null,"markdown":"能力を持つ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4395bed2-aad4-48ac-962e-790aeee22794","kind":"paragraph","order":473,"section_id":"sec_3f405d80-fcac-4ee8-839c-9bf43000d5b6","character_id":null,"markdown":"これが非常に難しい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_86f826be-ee5c-40d2-ac66-dd306df3eb98","kind":"paragraph","order":474,"section_id":"sec_3f405d80-fcac-4ee8-839c-9bf43000d5b6","character_id":null,"markdown":"光モジュールではわずかな光軸ずれ、温度変化、レーザー出力差、波長差、接続損失、DSP特性差でも歩留まりが悪化する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c8814e1d-9a59-4829-ab29-76c032259be8","kind":"paragraph","order":475,"section_id":"sec_3f405d80-fcac-4ee8-839c-9bf43000d5b6","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d6057430-2943-4b1f-a0aa-b7eda7bbffb0","kind":"paragraph","order":476,"section_id":"sec_3f405d80-fcac-4ee8-839c-9bf43000d5b6","character_id":null,"markdown":"「レーザーやDSPを買ってくれば誰でもInnolightになれる」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_271e1b0b-4867-4fc7-a26f-d151f02915dd","kind":"paragraph","order":477,"section_id":"sec_3f405d80-fcac-4ee8-839c-9bf43000d5b6","character_id":null,"markdown":"わけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_34fbf242-24b8-40ea-8dff-71c8d5d9d831","kind":"paragraph","order":478,"section_id":"sec_3f405d80-fcac-4ee8-839c-9bf43000d5b6","character_id":null,"markdown":"大量生産で歩留まりを出す製造ノウハウそのものが競争力になっている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0841f945-b1fc-4e41-8e1f-a6d9c2cd3143","kind":"heading","order":479,"section_id":"sec_4100567f-a83e-43ba-ae0f-1936fbe4988b","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜高歩留まり量産の価値","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_770c6629-1f66-4d09-9a02-22ef293121ba","kind":"figure","order":480,"section_id":"sec_4100567f-a83e-43ba-ae0f-1936fbe4988b","character_id":null,"markdown":"![高歩留まり量産の価値 01](/media/ebd3ad77b3af6c8317df71eef412c6c7c0b3a448edc6d7d562fb2e96ef70e95b-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_393cf11b-a26e-41bb-b9fc-306fa7ed6674","kind":"heading","order":481,"section_id":"sec_ac6bd655-1170-4fbd-8a23-c90061d8b016","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 31　そして顧客がCiscoからHyperscalerへ変わった","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_890c441a-a103-4da6-86db-c5b800bbb649","kind":"paragraph","order":482,"section_id":"sec_ac6bd655-1170-4fbd-8a23-c90061d8b016","character_id":null,"markdown":"昔のネットワーク産業では、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_12efd414-28c5-4925-ae17-d91d3075f52b","kind":"paragraph","order":483,"section_id":"sec_ac6bd655-1170-4fbd-8a23-c90061d8b016","character_id":null,"markdown":"Cisco\n ↓\nSwitch\n ↓\nCisco認定Optics\n ↓\nEnterprise","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3df56e7b-5d64-4edf-8a7b-dd970e7e27f8","kind":"paragraph","order":484,"section_id":"sec_ac6bd655-1170-4fbd-8a23-c90061d8b016","character_id":null,"markdown":"という垂直型の販売構造が強かった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4667a3e2-600b-4224-9df2-b61c4145970d","kind":"paragraph","order":485,"section_id":"sec_ac6bd655-1170-4fbd-8a23-c90061d8b016","character_id":null,"markdown":"しかしHyperscaler時代になると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01347465-f462-4029-a266-a94139bd8300","kind":"paragraph","order":486,"section_id":"sec_ac6bd655-1170-4fbd-8a23-c90061d8b016","character_id":null,"markdown":"Google、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e83e885-befe-4ffc-a83f-e4b966243933","kind":"paragraph","order":487,"section_id":"sec_ac6bd655-1170-4fbd-8a23-c90061d8b016","character_id":null,"markdown":"Amazon、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_976ef765-8610-4af2-9ff1-bbc4d9a5b6f0","kind":"paragraph","order":488,"section_id":"sec_ac6bd655-1170-4fbd-8a23-c90061d8b016","character_id":null,"markdown":"Meta、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_36bf3ae3-d93c-4306-8e3b-be5a4de62ebe","kind":"paragraph","order":489,"section_id":"sec_ac6bd655-1170-4fbd-8a23-c90061d8b016","character_id":null,"markdown":"Microsoft","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d48a28fb-8d25-4275-aa6d-d284dcdcd401","kind":"paragraph","order":490,"section_id":"sec_ac6bd655-1170-4fbd-8a23-c90061d8b016","character_id":null,"markdown":"のような会社が巨大化し、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_60dbe7d2-5710-46a1-8bfc-dae80d5c3f46","kind":"paragraph","order":491,"section_id":"sec_ac6bd655-1170-4fbd-8a23-c90061d8b016","character_id":null,"markdown":"Switch ASIC\nOptics\nNIC\nServer\nCable","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c47bf115-7f09-41a6-837a-f5c6af1db35c","kind":"paragraph","order":492,"section_id":"sec_ac6bd655-1170-4fbd-8a23-c90061d8b016","character_id":null,"markdown":"をそれぞれ直接最適化するようになった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_84edfd31-fb43-422e-8565-0bb3899f6718","kind":"paragraph","order":493,"section_id":"sec_ac6bd655-1170-4fbd-8a23-c90061d8b016","character_id":null,"markdown":"さらに標準化されたQSFP-DDやOSFP、merchant silicon、white-box switchが普及した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_85ac4e18-798a-42cb-ad59-49a2e11f1856","kind":"paragraph","order":494,"section_id":"sec_ac6bd655-1170-4fbd-8a23-c90061d8b016","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_71d00c9a-ab14-4b93-8329-2d1c0d2551b9","kind":"paragraph","order":495,"section_id":"sec_ac6bd655-1170-4fbd-8a23-c90061d8b016","character_id":null,"markdown":"Ciscoのスイッチを買わなければCisco opticsも買えない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dbe22667-c513-46e4-a4d9-3e106fa5c4ba","kind":"paragraph","order":496,"section_id":"sec_ac6bd655-1170-4fbd-8a23-c90061d8b016","character_id":null,"markdown":"という世界から、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d4a0655-c151-441e-b07b-290dbd6bd37c","kind":"paragraph","order":497,"section_id":"sec_ac6bd655-1170-4fbd-8a23-c90061d8b016","character_id":null,"markdown":"必要なSwitch ASICと必要なOpticsを組み合わせる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_856730fa-0394-46d7-aaae-7b80e1083483","kind":"paragraph","order":498,"section_id":"sec_ac6bd655-1170-4fbd-8a23-c90061d8b016","character_id":null,"markdown":"世界へ変わった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_30972dbc-aa3b-44a5-8543-3bf5a6b3773a","kind":"paragraph","order":499,"section_id":"sec_ac6bd655-1170-4fbd-8a23-c90061d8b016","character_id":null,"markdown":"Innolight/Eoptolinkはこの構造変化の最大の受益者の一つだったと考えると分かりやすい。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d76b1264-8bc0-431d-830c-5adebd3fff9a","kind":"heading","order":500,"section_id":"sec_ec4a3d2d-aeb2-42a2-8047-043204345633","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜Hyperscaler時代の調達構造","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_834d0c77-ea90-4089-8007-6c2eee480acd","kind":"figure","order":501,"section_id":"sec_ec4a3d2d-aeb2-42a2-8047-043204345633","character_id":null,"markdown":"![Hyperscaler時代の調達構造 01](/media/3b3de5a251283e7e6f8effca74e3cccb865508c3bc1dfce121c289ac36427838-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_eaf7eee8-2081-4dfb-978f-e21728732376","kind":"heading","order":502,"section_id":"sec_a272fdd8-fb8b-4574-acb1-06b2af6e7b70","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 32　AIによってこの変化がさらに加速した","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_36ce4bc5-6c03-43db-bf14-32abe74e8056","kind":"paragraph","order":503,"section_id":"sec_a272fdd8-fb8b-4574-acb1-06b2af6e7b70","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIではGPU一台の計算能力そのものより、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_39be9aeb-736c-41ab-b444-46491a16dd12","kind":"paragraph","order":504,"section_id":"sec_a272fdd8-fb8b-4574-acb1-06b2af6e7b70","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU同士がどれだけ速くデータを交換できるか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f44f916c-be3b-4052-a387-d28ddf03b8ef","kind":"paragraph","order":505,"section_id":"sec_a272fdd8-fb8b-4574-acb1-06b2af6e7b70","character_id":null,"markdown":"が重要になる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e2df7c7b-ce04-4b0f-8b96-bbce2dc3e5cd","kind":"paragraph","order":506,"section_id":"sec_a272fdd8-fb8b-4574-acb1-06b2af6e7b70","character_id":null,"markdown":"そのため、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_75aca980-bc72-4f08-b001-16df96b6606c","kind":"paragraph","order":507,"section_id":"sec_a272fdd8-fb8b-4574-acb1-06b2af6e7b70","character_id":null,"markdown":"100G\n ↓\n200G\n ↓\n400G\n ↓\n800G\n ↓\n1.6T","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_90d2e3f7-5892-40b6-824d-e95881f3d046","kind":"paragraph","order":508,"section_id":"sec_a272fdd8-fb8b-4574-acb1-06b2af6e7b70","character_id":null,"markdown":"という光高速化が急速に進んだ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_77c132d9-a2be-44b9-a5dc-ae050d7bf935","kind":"paragraph","order":509,"section_id":"sec_a272fdd8-fb8b-4574-acb1-06b2af6e7b70","character_id":null,"markdown":"TrendForceは800G以上の光トランシーバーの世界出荷比率が2024年の19.5%から2026年には60%超へ上昇すると予測している。(TrendForce)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0246bd1f-de8c-4dd2-bfcf-fe0793aef6d4","kind":"paragraph","order":510,"section_id":"sec_a272fdd8-fb8b-4574-acb1-06b2af6e7b70","character_id":null,"markdown":"同社はAI向け光トランシーバー市場を2025年165億ドルから2026年260億ドルへ、57%以上成長すると予測している。(TrendForce)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_80b33515-5528-4ea9-8e7a-b8b836a1af8d","kind":"paragraph","order":511,"section_id":"sec_a272fdd8-fb8b-4574-acb1-06b2af6e7b70","character_id":null,"markdown":"LightCountingでも2025年の光トランシーバー・関連製品売上は238億ドル、うちEthernet光トランシーバーが約180億ドルと推計され、前年比70%近い増加だった。(LightCounting)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1d695c74-cae7-4767-9a52-6edd4b813595","kind":"paragraph","order":512,"section_id":"sec_a272fdd8-fb8b-4574-acb1-06b2af6e7b70","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここへInnolightとEoptolinkが最も強く張っていた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d7a1f5e0-0286-4a9a-b1f9-4f9d8c63506f","kind":"heading","order":513,"section_id":"sec_448eda9d-9a0e-4137-ba47-8dff6527b5b8","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜100Gから1.6Tへの加速","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c9665372-1d1c-4043-be46-16d67786f1ff","kind":"figure","order":514,"section_id":"sec_448eda9d-9a0e-4137-ba47-8dff6527b5b8","character_id":null,"markdown":"![100Gから1.6Tへの加速 01](/media/093d297577ffdf1f4cfc3faa288ad74c8eee2eabe3029a617246a86b70fb9269-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d5560fd-2813-4842-b89b-91323c17ce19","kind":"heading","order":515,"section_id":"sec_b285e0a7-e402-4052-bf59-52c78db33633","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 33　だから中国勢が急に強くなったように見える","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ae8eecb9-89a5-4452-8c85-938bc5ee38d4","kind":"paragraph","order":516,"section_id":"sec_b285e0a7-e402-4052-bf59-52c78db33633","character_id":null,"markdown":"実際には突然ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c94b7ed9-0887-404d-89d5-32288e46ff59","kind":"paragraph","order":517,"section_id":"sec_b285e0a7-e402-4052-bf59-52c78db33633","character_id":null,"markdown":"2008年から投資し、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_454a46f2-1129-4429-ad6c-a14caa99d122","kind":"paragraph","order":518,"section_id":"sec_b285e0a7-e402-4052-bf59-52c78db33633","character_id":null,"markdown":"2010年代に100G、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9e5fd62c-fb53-4f1e-936c-c95ac76e0ed4","kind":"paragraph","order":519,"section_id":"sec_b285e0a7-e402-4052-bf59-52c78db33633","character_id":null,"markdown":"2018年前後から400G、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9916f914-056c-46d6-8510-f912d1cde2fa","kind":"paragraph","order":520,"section_id":"sec_b285e0a7-e402-4052-bf59-52c78db33633","character_id":null,"markdown":"2020年前後から800G、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f28de28d-2f75-47af-adee-836092f9c79f","kind":"paragraph","order":521,"section_id":"sec_b285e0a7-e402-4052-bf59-52c78db33633","character_id":null,"markdown":"2023年から1.6T","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_efffb805-a107-4114-b6e9-4f4b1cb46964","kind":"paragraph","order":522,"section_id":"sec_b285e0a7-e402-4052-bf59-52c78db33633","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ進んできた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6c16bfe8-fbba-444d-af9f-621e77b0373e","kind":"paragraph","order":523,"section_id":"sec_b285e0a7-e402-4052-bf59-52c78db33633","character_id":null,"markdown":"ただしAIブームによって市場の中心が、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd835229-8f39-442c-a0b1-550bb7eca3f0","kind":"paragraph","order":524,"section_id":"sec_b285e0a7-e402-4052-bf59-52c78db33633","character_id":null,"markdown":"Telecom\nEnterprise\n       ↓\nHyperscale Ethernet\nAI Cluster","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8bf60c43-1b1c-49e4-ae0d-01c1f634b4f1","kind":"paragraph","order":525,"section_id":"sec_b285e0a7-e402-4052-bf59-52c78db33633","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ猛烈な速度で移動した。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ce81c919-4bd8-4db2-af4f-44a0bd72f836","kind":"paragraph","order":526,"section_id":"sec_b285e0a7-e402-4052-bf59-52c78db33633","character_id":null,"markdown":"その結果、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd2bb274-f12b-4b0d-a081-98346eaa0600","kind":"paragraph","order":527,"section_id":"sec_b285e0a7-e402-4052-bf59-52c78db33633","character_id":null,"markdown":"最も成長する場所へ最も集中していた会社が、一気にランキング上位へ現れた。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a7bd7c70-da8d-44e2-8b59-7cead315d59e","kind":"paragraph","order":528,"section_id":"sec_b285e0a7-e402-4052-bf59-52c78db33633","character_id":null,"markdown":"それがInnolightとEoptolinkだった。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_95363306-6c05-49e9-8a58-035a38cef26e","kind":"heading","order":529,"section_id":"sec_e9a7d0dd-a878-4e90-adba-7a7bee7ae13b","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜市場中心の高速Ethernetへの移動","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_187dbe64-a108-4ffa-82bc-87e5f7e7905d","kind":"figure","order":530,"section_id":"sec_e9a7d0dd-a878-4e90-adba-7a7bee7ae13b","character_id":null,"markdown":"![市場中心の高速Ethernetへの移動 01](/media/b44e9d1e13384a8c436da0dc8d787473e0415a5cb8677f2ba707b2bba45aebc0-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_27b84593-eed9-4c4d-8178-e3e7dd5f14c4","kind":"heading","order":531,"section_id":"sec_6ba7b201-0271-4609-9671-becfcea9ab32","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 34　米国の輸入規制案が重大なのはこのため","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9f103f0e-b5a7-482c-876f-149e03cd1330","kind":"paragraph","order":532,"section_id":"sec_6ba7b201-0271-4609-9671-becfcea9ab32","character_id":null,"markdown":"米国が中国の新型光トランシーバーを排除した場合、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c87e48be-1e6f-42d7-b144-decf05ec5a3c","kind":"paragraph","order":533,"section_id":"sec_6ba7b201-0271-4609-9671-becfcea9ab32","character_id":null,"markdown":"単純に、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_69efa211-b239-4d77-85e4-73631d914d1d","kind":"paragraph","order":534,"section_id":"sec_6ba7b201-0271-4609-9671-becfcea9ab32","character_id":null,"markdown":"Innolightを外す\n     ↓\nCoherentへ注文","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8d913a0b-129f-4330-aef8-d16b7fb2250e","kind":"paragraph","order":535,"section_id":"sec_6ba7b201-0271-4609-9671-becfcea9ab32","character_id":null,"markdown":"で終わるとは限らない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_77ad9c2d-2dc7-4233-8f7d-a81d486fee12","kind":"paragraph","order":536,"section_id":"sec_6ba7b201-0271-4609-9671-becfcea9ab32","character_id":null,"markdown":"InnolightはReuters引用推計で世界市場の約27%。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d57e5a92-8687-415d-ad1f-1a05bbd073f0","kind":"paragraph","order":537,"section_id":"sec_6ba7b201-0271-4609-9671-becfcea9ab32","character_id":null,"markdown":"中国企業全体では世界出荷量の半分超を握る。(Reuters)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_28c71095-6ee2-4fba-a389-36d7d9419f57","kind":"paragraph","order":538,"section_id":"sec_6ba7b201-0271-4609-9671-becfcea9ab32","character_id":null,"markdown":"同時にCoherent、Lumentumなど米国勢もInP、レーザー、DSP、SiPh、組立能力など複数の供給制約を抱える。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5e467ad2-47bf-4ab2-9751-c08a751144e6","kind":"paragraph","order":539,"section_id":"sec_6ba7b201-0271-4609-9671-becfcea9ab32","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって規制が急速に適用されれば、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ad6d8349-a865-40b8-9d09-4eaf6a3a913d","kind":"paragraph","order":540,"section_id":"sec_6ba7b201-0271-4609-9671-becfcea9ab32","character_id":null,"markdown":"米国AIデータセンター自身の光供給能力を制約する","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7c6e5867-9236-4674-87a3-32be3398bddf","kind":"paragraph","order":541,"section_id":"sec_6ba7b201-0271-4609-9671-becfcea9ab32","character_id":null,"markdown":"可能性もある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_55b00804-9327-4154-80ac-772c281fa0ac","kind":"paragraph","order":542,"section_id":"sec_6ba7b201-0271-4609-9671-becfcea9ab32","character_id":null,"markdown":"Reuters Breakingviewsも、中国製品を排除する一方で中国が光産業の重要な原材料供給網を握っているという複雑な相互依存を指摘している。(Reuters)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cbf5225e-97d5-4568-8862-83fac7a51050","kind":"heading","order":543,"section_id":"sec_657876ce-96ea-440f-99df-6660b0fc8178","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜規制と代替供給網","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a91744f5-be25-4af1-ad49-66e4040df69a","kind":"figure","order":544,"section_id":"sec_657876ce-96ea-440f-99df-6660b0fc8178","character_id":null,"markdown":"![規制と代替供給網 01](/media/0caa2f41018bce04246ad00a074744724cad79d9d1f02715486558eed4dc66cc-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01818699-209e-46b8-ae5f-261516c8cffd","kind":"heading","order":545,"section_id":"sec_7f5bb67f-ae4e-4855-b40d-042e64cebf91","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 35　さらに次の戦場はCPOになる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a0d1c28a-5999-4d6f-9dfb-a839922c57f8","kind":"paragraph","order":546,"section_id":"sec_7f5bb67f-ae4e-4855-b40d-042e64cebf91","character_id":null,"markdown":"現在の構造は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4aa7ed8f-19a0-40b1-ad8e-b7e18faf3910","kind":"paragraph","order":547,"section_id":"sec_7f5bb67f-ae4e-4855-b40d-042e64cebf91","character_id":null,"markdown":"Switch ASIC\n     │\n     │ PCB上の電気信号\n     ▼\nOSFP\n     │\n     ▼\nFiber","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4f270c7b-09eb-4567-ac10-edc60cc2c5c4","kind":"paragraph","order":548,"section_id":"sec_7f5bb67f-ae4e-4855-b40d-042e64cebf91","character_id":null,"markdown":"である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fdeffc9b-a045-4933-90b7-9e248b6f9c9a","kind":"paragraph","order":549,"section_id":"sec_7f5bb67f-ae4e-4855-b40d-042e64cebf91","character_id":null,"markdown":"問題は200G/lane、400G/laneと高速になるほど、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2fcf9774-7078-4ba4-8bfb-359cda7a4322","kind":"paragraph","order":550,"section_id":"sec_7f5bb67f-ae4e-4855-b40d-042e64cebf91","character_id":null,"markdown":"ASICからOSFPまでの数十cmの電気配線すら損失と電力の原因になる","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4e0e8451-b4ed-4d17-95ac-60552a425f4b","kind":"paragraph","order":551,"section_id":"sec_7f5bb67f-ae4e-4855-b40d-042e64cebf91","character_id":null,"markdown":"ことだ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6b7045d2-f215-4c76-b062-c865458fb3ab","kind":"paragraph","order":552,"section_id":"sec_7f5bb67f-ae4e-4855-b40d-042e64cebf91","character_id":null,"markdown":"そこで、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c0856cb0-5ec8-4706-84c6-cc7a3d20bd73","kind":"paragraph","order":553,"section_id":"sec_7f5bb67f-ae4e-4855-b40d-042e64cebf91","character_id":null,"markdown":"FRO\n ↓\nLRO\n ↓\nLPO\n ↓\nNPO\n ↓\nCPO","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9f79c7a8-98f5-42aa-9897-33ac82637a6d","kind":"paragraph","order":554,"section_id":"sec_7f5bb67f-ae4e-4855-b40d-042e64cebf91","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ進もうとしている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_401526fd-2db6-4ec1-b050-bd3a7d79e5ad","kind":"paragraph","order":555,"section_id":"sec_7f5bb67f-ae4e-4855-b40d-042e64cebf91","character_id":null,"markdown":"CPOではOptical EngineをSwitch ASICのすぐ近くへ置く。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_bc691f0c-605c-43e3-8454-a9a2ec33e436","kind":"paragraph","order":556,"section_id":"sec_7f5bb67f-ae4e-4855-b40d-042e64cebf91","character_id":null,"markdown":"BroadcomはすでにTomahawk 6 Davissonとして102.4Tb/s SwitchとCo-Packaged Opticsを組み合わせたプラットフォームを展開している。(Broadcom)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ce466281-6376-47c1-8eb1-facfb59be202","kind":"paragraph","order":557,"section_id":"sec_7f5bb67f-ae4e-4855-b40d-042e64cebf91","character_id":null,"markdown":"ここまで進むと、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4263282b-8b80-4a59-b0c2-fd2a0039986c","kind":"paragraph","order":558,"section_id":"sec_7f5bb67f-ae4e-4855-b40d-042e64cebf91","character_id":null,"markdown":"OSFPという独立した箱そのものの意味が変わる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ce2761f3-d10c-4975-b501-affdee363e5a","kind":"heading","order":559,"section_id":"sec_86f5c06c-b338-4fc7-95f0-2d06db591025","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜PluggableからCPOへ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_37eafe55-dc36-4138-8c8b-a3d34ba15c0d","kind":"figure","order":560,"section_id":"sec_86f5c06c-b338-4fc7-95f0-2d06db591025","character_id":null,"markdown":"![PluggableからCPOへ 01](/media/99542b18b8b86ddf7ac12eee546031c37ede862d2e62711dec864d9ec045bfd5-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_25bf6cc2-2f21-4d79-8791-03300ef5f110","kind":"heading","order":561,"section_id":"sec_d46368f3-2530-4067-8fca-a4fa17c2e303","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 36　それでもInnolight/Eoptolinkが消えるとは限らない","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_13bb83a9-4294-40df-b807-5b2af0458f25","kind":"paragraph","order":562,"section_id":"sec_d46368f3-2530-4067-8fca-a4fa17c2e303","character_id":null,"markdown":"Pluggable opticsがCPOへ移ると、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fc247121-fac3-4394-b12a-29a437df536a","kind":"paragraph","order":563,"section_id":"sec_d46368f3-2530-4067-8fca-a4fa17c2e303","character_id":null,"markdown":"「InnolightやEoptolinkは終わる」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6357555e-e1fb-40cb-8db0-d001d3b908ed","kind":"paragraph","order":564,"section_id":"sec_d46368f3-2530-4067-8fca-a4fa17c2e303","character_id":null,"markdown":"という単純な話にもならない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b923fd51-9d82-4c1a-9525-be832eb8b861","kind":"paragraph","order":565,"section_id":"sec_d46368f3-2530-4067-8fca-a4fa17c2e303","character_id":null,"markdown":"両社自身が、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4bcfa95e-26dd-4beb-abd5-4802df525dcb","kind":"paragraph","order":566,"section_id":"sec_d46368f3-2530-4067-8fca-a4fa17c2e303","character_id":null,"markdown":"SiPh、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_c3583f95-ef57-47c8-ada3-f198ca614120","kind":"paragraph","order":567,"section_id":"sec_d46368f3-2530-4067-8fca-a4fa17c2e303","character_id":null,"markdown":"LPO、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3a987824-13ab-43e4-8921-7eaf8b8e773f","kind":"paragraph","order":568,"section_id":"sec_d46368f3-2530-4067-8fca-a4fa17c2e303","character_id":null,"markdown":"NPO、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d40840c0-47fa-4c27-86b4-5460aa465d8c","kind":"paragraph","order":569,"section_id":"sec_d46368f3-2530-4067-8fca-a4fa17c2e303","character_id":null,"markdown":"高密度光エンジン","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9955770f-9f45-45e8-9fd0-e66676a9079a","kind":"paragraph","order":570,"section_id":"sec_d46368f3-2530-4067-8fca-a4fa17c2e303","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ進出しているからだ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c9cb975-54ac-45fd-9ca8-ab00aaabe16b","kind":"paragraph","order":571,"section_id":"sec_d46368f3-2530-4067-8fca-a4fa17c2e303","character_id":null,"markdown":"InnolightはLPO/NPOなど次世代光interconnectを重点開発領域として明記している。(InnoLight)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_03c88f14-888f-485d-9bc1-524680cd4786","kind":"paragraph","order":572,"section_id":"sec_d46368f3-2530-4067-8fca-a4fa17c2e303","character_id":null,"markdown":"EoptolinkもすでにLPO、LRO、1.6T、6.4T NPO、さらにXPOまで展開している。(Eoptolink)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f327ed2f-fc18-4dd5-9c28-436ab99c508c","kind":"paragraph","order":573,"section_id":"sec_d46368f3-2530-4067-8fca-a4fa17c2e303","character_id":null,"markdown":"したがって今後の勝負は、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d36af251-588b-4005-9b10-669426dcefef","kind":"paragraph","order":574,"section_id":"sec_d46368f3-2530-4067-8fca-a4fa17c2e303","character_id":null,"markdown":"OSFPを何個売るか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ea763852-f4f2-4412-bd46-7de34a573734","kind":"paragraph","order":575,"section_id":"sec_d46368f3-2530-4067-8fca-a4fa17c2e303","character_id":null,"markdown":"ではなく、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_488ff9cd-aa8a-42bf-852e-7b0c4e591d36","kind":"paragraph","order":576,"section_id":"sec_d46368f3-2530-4067-8fca-a4fa17c2e303","character_id":null,"markdown":"光I/Oそのもののどの階層を握れるか","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d1ca7751-12e1-4ce8-9e94-349d0b9151d7","kind":"paragraph","order":577,"section_id":"sec_d46368f3-2530-4067-8fca-a4fa17c2e303","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ変化していく。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_b1c15c78-987c-44c6-8ae6-e417f34692eb","kind":"heading","order":578,"section_id":"sec_8ba89bc9-b328-46f4-b66a-0a50bc3ac5b5","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜光I/O Stack全体への移動","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6dd21cfe-dc23-4e42-bd17-3630bf80c9c1","kind":"figure","order":579,"section_id":"sec_8ba89bc9-b328-46f4-b66a-0a50bc3ac5b5","character_id":null,"markdown":"![光I/O Stack全体への移動 01](/media/e7632253c908c76fed972cfd7182a7991224e05455a64c51faac0f7c5a893e7e-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_515b9f34-1b1e-42be-b64e-f5ce35b83992","kind":"heading","order":580,"section_id":"sec_242fc357-b8f3-4842-9a39-34e991d8f84a","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 37　この産業を理解するための最終図","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7541a0d6-157c-4842-bcfb-d2ae3b024782","kind":"paragraph","order":581,"section_id":"sec_242fc357-b8f3-4842-9a39-34e991d8f84a","character_id":null,"markdown":"最後にすべてを一枚につなげる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_83af6e65-1248-4bdd-a71b-0725620a01eb","kind":"paragraph","order":582,"section_id":"sec_242fc357-b8f3-4842-9a39-34e991d8f84a","character_id":null,"markdown":"AI MODEL\n                      │\n                      ▼\n                  GPU HBM\n                      │\n                      ▼\n                     GPU\n                      │\n       ┌──────────────┴──────────────┐\n       │                             │\n       ▼                             ▼\n   NVLink                         PCIe\nScale-up通信                        │\n       │                             ▼\n   NVSwitch                    NIC / SuperNIC\n       │                             │\n       │                       Ethernet / IB\n       │                             │\n       │                           SerDes\n       │                             │\n       │                             ▼\n       │                    ┌─────────────────┐\n       │                    │ Optical Module  │\n       │                    │                 │\n       │                    │ Optical DSP     │\n       │                    │ Broadcom/       │\n       │                    │ Marvell等       │\n       │                    │       ↓         │\n       │                    │ Driver / TIA    │\n       │                    │       ↓         │\n       │                    │ EML / SiPh      │\n       │                    │       ↓         │\n       │                    │ Laser / PD      │\n       │                    └────────┬────────┘\n       │                             │\n       │                           Fiber\n       │                             │\n       │                             ▼\n       │                       Leaf Switch\n       │                             │\n       │                       Switch ASIC\n       │                     Tomahawk/Spectrum\n       │                             │\n       │                           OSFP\n       │                             │\n       │                           Fiber\n       │                             │\n       │                             ▼\n       │                       Spine Switch\n       │                             │\n       │                             ▼\n       │                         Leaf Switch\n       │                             │\n       │                             ▼\n       │                         NIC / PCIe\n       │                             │\n       └─────────────────────────────┤\n                                     ▼\n                                    GPU\n                                     │\n                                     ▼\n                                    HBM","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a2078cb7-4611-469b-b235-07e24ce125d4","kind":"paragraph","order":583,"section_id":"sec_242fc357-b8f3-4842-9a39-34e991d8f84a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Broadcom Tomahawkが握っているのはSwitching。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_63d257bd-01a5-4058-954b-20eead859400","kind":"paragraph","order":584,"section_id":"sec_242fc357-b8f3-4842-9a39-34e991d8f84a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Marvell Novaが握っているのはOptical DSP。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2623affa-67f8-489f-b1ae-b85a4e1175aa","kind":"paragraph","order":585,"section_id":"sec_242fc357-b8f3-4842-9a39-34e991d8f84a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Coherent/Lumentumが強いのはLaser、EML、SiPh、Optical Componentsで、Coherentは完成Transceiverまで強い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_53bd09d4-440d-411f-9d39-701966006f7b","kind":"paragraph","order":586,"section_id":"sec_242fc357-b8f3-4842-9a39-34e991d8f84a","character_id":null,"markdown":"Innolight/Eoptolinkが圧倒的に伸びたのは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3dc6586-8eb4-4b73-9e7c-861a1ce8d319","kind":"paragraph","order":587,"section_id":"sec_242fc357-b8f3-4842-9a39-34e991d8f84a","character_id":null,"markdown":"これらの高度な部品を実際にデータセンターで使える400G、800G、1.6T完成モジュールとして、安く、高品質に、大量生産する能力","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_869503a9-cf22-44ea-9f54-3468228448c5","kind":"paragraph","order":588,"section_id":"sec_242fc357-b8f3-4842-9a39-34e991d8f84a","character_id":null,"markdown":"を磨いてきたからだ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dd1eb364-1792-4817-8c95-514e34388551","kind":"heading","order":589,"section_id":"sec_1824c6d3-519b-4b41-a265-88b749d97dd2","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜AI光通信の産業階層","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_79e94ed3-fabb-440d-9699-4aa6c906c287","kind":"figure","order":590,"section_id":"sec_1824c6d3-519b-4b41-a265-88b749d97dd2","character_id":null,"markdown":"![AI光通信の産業階層 01](/media/b043ee433d5cd4686700ca9fa097606999afc220773b174b3f19f75470bfb434-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f32fa06e-c530-4cbd-ac73-3730cc7310f2","kind":"heading","order":591,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 38　今回の米国規制報道が示している本当の問題","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5a2b364d-b0b8-4ae0-bb2a-82ef78b2f7be","kind":"paragraph","order":592,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"今回のReuters報道を単なる、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_562bfac3-a84f-4fad-b1f2-eab110c9d266","kind":"paragraph","order":593,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"「中国企業排除で米国光銘柄に追い風」","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_fd0a5fe0-2bf8-44b9-b776-df237aa0bd45","kind":"paragraph","order":594,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"として見るだけでは、このニュースの本質を捉えきれない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_ee64d92a-6b06-480d-93bc-66d83120546e","kind":"paragraph","order":595,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"これはAIインフラのサプライチェーンが、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_38a28758-e1cc-4988-ac76-a24b6091ca89","kind":"paragraph","order":596,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"GPU\nMemory\nSwitch ASIC\nOptical DSP\nLaser\nSiPh\nTransceiver\nFiber","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_dce58f1c-b45b-4471-91c2-e73af0b30d5e","kind":"paragraph","order":597,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"という極めて細かい国際分業の上に成立していることを示している。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4addf25b-2eb6-480f-84f2-66508225f315","kind":"paragraph","order":598,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"米国にはBroadcom、Marvell、NVIDIAという極めて強い半導体企業がある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_937d5452-581f-4cd4-aa53-f6980ab6293a","kind":"paragraph","order":599,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"CoherentやLumentumという世界最高水準の光半導体企業もある。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3bba9f36-8341-476f-a502-8d2f25dbbf94","kind":"paragraph","order":600,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"一方で、中国にはInnolightやEoptolinkという世界最大級の光モジュール量産企業が育った。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_2228f83b-0923-4562-9a3f-2a2058c4052c","kind":"paragraph","order":601,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"そしてその中国製モジュールの中へ米国製DSPが入り、米国製Switch ASICと接続され、米国のHyperscalerで使われる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5fa88289-8116-4640-be56-2cb38eb70088","kind":"paragraph","order":602,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"逆に米国のレーザー企業が使うInP材料の一部はアジア、中国を含む供給網へ依存する。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0221403-c649-410a-95a2-8de05a370f58","kind":"paragraph","order":603,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIインフラとは、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8c6bcaf7-44cb-49c1-978a-1da4d5b355d5","kind":"paragraph","order":604,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"一つの国だけでは完成しない巨大な機械","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3c5294d0-b3dc-4368-8f06-d2ced57cb890","kind":"paragraph","order":605,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"なのである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_3422ba4b-551d-4866-bb87-6ab192321ee5","kind":"paragraph","order":606,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"InnolightとEoptolinkの台頭は、中国企業が突然「光技術で米国を抜いた」という単純な物語ではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_74e14fdf-99df-48c6-ac68-3a71b673464e","kind":"paragraph","order":607,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"通信機器がCisco中心だった時代から、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a63aa4d4-7a9b-4377-8342-5a8177b6a8ed","kind":"paragraph","order":608,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"merchant silicon、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_7641c9d9-5f31-4400-bec1-ec60b6a20a34","kind":"paragraph","order":609,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"標準化されたOSFP/QSFP、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6e9635af-bbc9-4b4f-8718-c0b980f72f88","kind":"paragraph","order":610,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"white-box networking、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_57ee4188-6078-4c06-a6c4-74a007255d01","kind":"paragraph","order":611,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"hyperscaler direct procurement、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6cf584a5-567e-414a-8235-e4083befe25b","kind":"paragraph","order":612,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"そしてAI cluster","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f3792fb2-49d4-4035-b8ab-dd80cb84f04e","kind":"paragraph","order":613,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"へ市場構造そのものが変化した結果だ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_9b6e05fd-f56f-40cf-b13d-32b0ace736f0","kind":"paragraph","order":614,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"その変化の中で、","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_e5fb938e-8803-4821-b1e9-8cf8c0f056a5","kind":"paragraph","order":615,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"BroadcomはSwitch ASICとPHYを握り、MarvellはOptical DSPを握り、Coherent/Lumentumは光源とフォトニクスを握り、Innolight/Eoptolinkは高速光モジュール量産を握った。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_45bc28e6-8fa0-4977-bb29-163f40ebc63a","kind":"paragraph","order":616,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"そして今、800Gから1.6T、さらに3.2T、NPO、CPOへ進むことで、この境界線が再び崩れ始めている。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_637fe2bd-42d0-4c77-bec1-64b5b6c89746","kind":"paragraph","order":617,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"米国が中国製光トランシーバーの新型モデルを本当に排除するのであれば、問題になるのはInnolightやEoptolinkの売上だけではない。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5cf8e3ba-bcd5-483a-975a-a08086a29cd4","kind":"paragraph","order":618,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"AIデータセンターを構成してきた国際分業そのものを、どこまで別の供給網へ組み替えられるのか。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_05734d46-7a1d-4d27-81b2-dd8934f40490","kind":"paragraph","order":619,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"次に問われるのは、そこなのである。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_5d070ce1-feef-42fe-9ebb-acdce64e2e30","kind":"paragraph","order":620,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"Reuters","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1f652430-c073-4cc5-81c3-6d7f8a10a5ee","kind":"paragraph","order":621,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"Reuters","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cf1e4077-5a2b-4ebb-b434-5d55c3f95b35","kind":"paragraph","order":622,"section_id":"sec_91246f48-4985-4cac-ab85-4c225e92dae1","character_id":null,"markdown":"ft.com","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f6e45630-9ec1-4781-a750-e7f83912c940","kind":"heading","order":623,"section_id":"sec_bced671f-a135-49e7-9b85-d5be2516d353","character_id":null,"markdown":"### 図解｜国際分業と光供給網","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_8ebb154a-2020-4c47-afb5-c421f8ace36e","kind":"figure","order":624,"section_id":"sec_bced671f-a135-49e7-9b85-d5be2516d353","character_id":null,"markdown":"![国際分業と光供給網 01](/media/0811970049dc7d47602556af459683a17da4fc5436ffd67c64dab1104d86b77f-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_45726a4e-c07a-4ac7-bc9e-55a51ebd03dd","kind":"figure","order":625,"section_id":"sec_bced671f-a135-49e7-9b85-d5be2516d353","character_id":null,"markdown":"![国際分業と光供給網 02](/media/7dc1417709ea37383720f6fec1906ebb7c67ce2cedffe909010cb694f8e5b932-content.webp)","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cee0bf7a-e526-416e-9763-7551c08ac3e5","kind":"heading","order":626,"section_id":"sec_0bec12ca-18be-477c-a5e3-41c5eeb4324a","character_id":null,"markdown":"## さらに深く読むための座標","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_d85de58f-6d80-49cd-80d4-6e404b7aff68","kind":"paragraph","order":627,"section_id":"sec_0bec12ca-18be-477c-a5e3-41c5eeb4324a","character_id":null,"markdown":"光市場を企業名だけで追うと、Switching、Signal Processing、光源、Module統合、量産検査が混ざる。価値の所在は製品名ではなく、どの工程の歩留まりと顧客認定を握るかで決まる。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_02d39574-b961-41b3-8633-35f214d58971","kind":"table","order":628,"section_id":"sec_0bec12ca-18be-477c-a5e3-41c5eeb4324a","character_id":null,"markdown":"| 層 | 観測対象 | 問うべきこと |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 判断 | Switch ASIC・PHY・NIC | 通信先とProtocolを決める |\n| 補正 | SerDes・Optical DSP・Driver/TIA | 高速PAM4を成立させる |\n| 変換・量産 | Laser・SiPh・Module・光実装 | 電気と光を高歩留まりで結ぶ |","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_1806c3fd-259b-4cef-b7fb-ade9e05dd0d7","kind":"heading","order":629,"section_id":"sec_54ce1804-d9ab-47bf-bc88-9aa84f1233ee","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"## 絶ノイアの観測","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4adc920c-6748-47df-af05-4f07737801c6","kind":"paragraph","order":630,"section_id":"sec_54ce1804-d9ab-47bf-bc88-9aa84f1233ee","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"Tomahawk、Nova、Innolightを同じ『光銘柄』として並べると、利益の源泉を見失います。頭脳、翻訳器、完成Moduleは、同じ光路の別の関所です。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_65afd20d-ecac-412c-9c4d-77772ed6e257","kind":"paragraph","order":631,"section_id":"sec_54ce1804-d9ab-47bf-bc88-9aa84f1233ee","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"私は「判断」「補正」「変換・量産」を別々の話題にせず、一つのAIインフラが通過する連続した設計課題として観測します。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_cd305601-6772-4496-99e5-87332b3c8ea3","kind":"paragraph","order":632,"section_id":"sec_54ce1804-d9ab-47bf-bc88-9aa84f1233ee","character_id":"zetu_noia","markdown":"市場全体と特定速度・顧客・Form FactorのShareを混同しない。発表された最大性能や市場規模だけでなく、実装、量産、運用が同じ速度で前進しているかを確かめたいからです。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_6c451388-d131-4792-a402-47a80e8ef0b2","kind":"heading","order":633,"section_id":"sec_9a537a63-4576-46e3-bc40-9ac9628789ad","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"## Sil-Kathnaの記録","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_4443c051-0c19-4fa9-9ff5-825e0f6b6925","kind":"paragraph","order":634,"section_id":"sec_9a537a63-4576-46e3-bc40-9ac9628789ad","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"一つの光は、多くの工房を通って生まれる。門を選ぶ石、波を整える石、光を封じる器。そのどれが欠けても道は暗い。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_67fa7c33-2775-4ad0-be17-ae04d3d764a3","kind":"paragraph","order":635,"section_id":"sec_9a537a63-4576-46e3-bc40-9ac9628789ad","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"私は「判断」「補正」「変換・量産」を、計算する文明へ続く三つの門として石板に刻む。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f0be607e-d6ce-4f7b-92d7-19293294f0a5","kind":"paragraph","order":636,"section_id":"sec_9a537a63-4576-46e3-bc40-9ac9628789ad","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"最初の門だけが開いても、次の門に熱、傷、遅れが残れば、光と記憶は炉心へ届かない。強い器とは、最も華やかな石を持つ器ではなく、異なる工房の歩調を長い夜の中で揃えられる器である。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_a306d7b3-be28-4114-b74c-0ebc441a8b89","kind":"paragraph","order":637,"section_id":"sec_9a537a63-4576-46e3-bc40-9ac9628789ad","character_id":"sil_kathna","markdown":"ゆえに私は、市場全体と特定速度・顧客・Form FactorのShareを混同しない。その結果が一時の輝きではなく、繰り返し作り、直し、動かせる秩序になったかを見届ける。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_f1d01577-87cb-4040-a6d2-bbd27d1e1f28","kind":"heading","order":638,"section_id":"sec_1f4b6f76-8aee-4cee-9618-49da409ba7d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 二人の短い対話","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_633592ea-4570-47e8-8cf1-10a1c2651793","kind":"paragraph","order":639,"section_id":"sec_1f4b6f76-8aee-4cee-9618-49da409ba7d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"**絶ノイア:** 規制リスクも企業単体ではなく、代替できない工程と認定期間から読むべきですね。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0cb13d67-a379-48dd-9b3a-5d2e1c5a07cc","kind":"paragraph","order":640,"section_id":"sec_1f4b6f76-8aee-4cee-9618-49da409ba7d0","character_id":null,"markdown":"**Sil-Kathna:** 国境は器を止められても、光を生む材料と技を一夜で移すことはできぬ。","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_589548fa-4f31-48ad-b87c-b6ca98e06090","kind":"heading","order":641,"section_id":"sec_052aac94-3ac6-4776-8d6e-808998e4bb62","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 観測メモ","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_0c5e9fde-a3ea-49c1-99ee-1b69b3631486","kind":"list","order":642,"section_id":"sec_052aac94-3ac6-4776-8d6e-808998e4bb62","character_id":null,"markdown":"- 市場全体と特定速度・顧客・Form FactorのShareを混同しない\n- Pluggable、LPO、CPOで価値が移る工程を分ける\n- 量産能力だけでなくBurn-in、Firmware、顧客Qualificationを追う","render_override":null},{"id":"blk_01e4f57a-5a93-4ff1-89c9-091cad59705e","kind":"heading","order":643,"section_id":"sec_f89b749f-b6aa-4d11-af0d-3c6c58e700c5","character_id":null,"markdown":"## 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